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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, November 30, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Baltimore Orioles

Despite almost the worst record for the team since 1997 (the 2001 edition was half-a-game worse), the Orioles probably had their most successful season since their wire-to-wire run, simply because the team continued rebuilding properly.  Unlike some other bottom feeder teams (hello Kansas City!), the O’s didn’t undermine the rebuilding in any single aspect.  Past editions of the O’s would have found excuses to not play Nolan Reimold or to give Mark Hendrickson as many innings as possible.  Even the Wieters case, the sole example of a high upside contributor not getting immediate playing time over the veteran, involved Baltimore trying to squeeze an extra year of arbitration, not a fetish for Rick Dempsey’s nephew.

So what about 2010?  The Orioles are going to be a bad team.  However, they should be.  The team is still in the process of sorting out a lot of young pitching and should realistically be looking at competing in the 2012/2013 time period.  In fact, if the Orioles win 80 games, I’d consider the season a disappointment, because if they’re winning 80 games, it probably means the team wasted time and money bringing in guys like Carlos Delgado to hot-shot a .500 season.  Other than doing some bargain-hunting with non-roster invitations (which is one thing the O’s haven’t really done), the team would be wise to not wade into the free-agent market.

Some might consider the starting pitcher projections disappointing, but young pitchers with short track records carry a lot of risk.  Bergesen’s not Wang and is going to be hard-pressed to keep the homer rate that low.  Matusz has a single professional season under his belt.  Tillman’s almost done but needs some polish and a lot of the lesser/lower pitching prospects still have command issues to sort out.  “Young pitchers will break your heart” is probably one of baseball’s better-supported adages.  I feel at least a few of the Oriole starting prospects will establish themselves long-term as solid pitchers, but a lot of those guys won’t be in the majors in 5 years. 

Offensive Projections

Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Nick Markakis*        rf 26 .295 .365 .479 159 620 98 183 44 2 22 102 69 104 9 4   115
Brian Roberts#        2b 32 .283 .360 .433 146 584 98 165 44 4 12 61 73 96 35 7   103
Luke Scott*          dh 32 .255 .342 .475 132 432 63 110 25 2 22 75 55 100 2 1   107
Adam Jones           cf 24 .278 .339 .479 135 507 91 141 25 4 23 80 39 106 10 6   107
Matt Wieters#        c   24 .282 .346 .427 135 496 62 140 23 2 15 70 50 102 1 1   98
Nolan Reimold         lf 26 .273 .345 .440 117 432 58 118 22 1 16 58 45 88 8 4   100
Ty Wigginton         1b 32 .280 .334 .461 117 414 54 116 22 1 17 56 29 72 2 4   102
Luis Montanez         lf 28 .282 .327 .415 95 337 47 95 16 1 9 42 21 55 3 3   90
Scott Moore*        3b 26 .248 .315 .432 84 294 40 73 16 1 12 49 23 72 3 2   90
Jeff Fiorentino*      rf 27 .266 .329 .391 113 399 57 106 19 2 9 52 39 75 9 4   85
Michael Aubrey*      1b 28 .275 .311 .415 99 371 34 102 23 1 9 41 18 48 1 1   85
Melvin Mora         3b 38 .263 .322 .400 106 395 47 104 19 1 11 59 29 53 2 4   85
Felix Pie*          lf 25 .259 .313 .408 124 355 57 92 15 4 10 49 28 72 8 5   84
Joshua Bell#        3b 23 .242 .316 .396 104 384 44 93 19 2 12 47 42 106 3 3   82
Justin Turner         2b 25 .269 .323 .350 117 443 58 119 22 1 4 44 32 63 6 5   74
Chad Moeller         c   35 .262 .313 .366 63 183 15 48 10 0 3 18 11 39 0 1   58
Brandon Snyder       1b 23 .252 .302 .369 132 493 54 124 27 2 9 68 34 111 2 2   72
Justin Christian       cf 30 .261 .298 .352 98 375 51 98 16 3 4 30 19 53 26 5   67
Robby Hammock         c   33 .235 .300 .353 87 289 33 68 14 1 6 32 24 60 2 1   67
Jonathan Tucker       lf 26 .258 .317 .335 122 457 64 118 20 3 3 36 37 65 16 10   68
Rhyne Hughes*        1b 26 .233 .290 .358 123 472 52 110 21 1 12 52 32 146 2 2   66
Michael Costanzo*      3b 26 .224 .294 .340 117 438 48 98 20 2 9 51 42 137 1 2   63
Cesar Izturis#        ss 30 .259 .303 .321 110 352 36 91 12 2 2 26 20 28 11 4   61
Melvin Dorta         3b 28 .262 .306 .343 122 423 50 111 18 2 4 36 26 51 14 11   67
Daniel Figueroa       cf 27 .239 .325 .284 94 335 44 80 10 1 1 22 34 84 15 6   59
Ryan Adams           2b 23 .251 .296 .335 90 343 35 86 15 1 4 30 20 79 4 4   62
Brandon Pinckney       3b 28 .261 .287 .336 90 333 36 87 14 1 3 29 11 50 1 2   60
Robert Andino         ss 26 .239 .285 .350 103 343 41 82 14 3 6 26 22 78 8 6   63
Craig Tatum         c   27 .230 .277 .333 97 339 30 78 15 1 6 40 21 85 0 1   56
Dave Krynzel*        cf 28 .218 .275 .321 94 312 32 68 10 2 6 29 22 93 11 4   53
Adam Donachie         c   26 .213 .282 .295 93 305 29 65 13 0 4 29 29 89 0 2   49
Pedro Florimon#      ss 23 .212 .267 .296 112 415 48 88 19 2 4 39 29 123 15 7   45
Billy Rowell*        3b 21 .210 .257 .288 122 434 37 91 17 1 5 35 27 135 2 3   40

Defensive Projections

Name           CThr 1b     2b     3b     ss     lf     cf     rf    
Markakis*                                          Av/84  
Roberts#                Av/88                            
Scott*                                  Fr/72       Fr/94  
Jones                                   Vg/114 Av/114      
Wieters#        Av                                      
Reimold                                 Pr/116       Pr/107
Wigginton           Av/142 Pr/103 Pr/92       Fr/121            
Montanez                                 Fr/105 Pr/215 Fr/84  
Moore*            Av/124 Pr/149 Fr/124 Pr/149 Av/124            
Fiorentino*                              Vg/107 Fr/61   Vg/107
Aubrey*            Av/108                                
Mora                         Av/87                      
Pie*                                  Vg/129 Vg/129 Vg/129
Bell#                        Fr/170                      
Turner                 Fr/137 Av/109 Fr/137                
Moeller         Fr                                      
Snyder             Av/156       Pr/187                      
Christian                               Vg/99   Av/63   Vg/99  
Hammock         Fr   Fr/120       Fr/120       Fr/120       Fr/120
Tucker                 Pr/134 Fr/149 Pr/182 Vg/71   Fr/85      
Hughes*            Vg/161                                
Costanzo*          Av/104       Fr/139                      
Izturis#                          Vg/86                  
Dorta                   Pr/144 Av/132 Pr/144 Av/121 Av/121 Av/121
Figueroa                                     Av/97      
Adams                   Av/241       Fr/241                
Pinckney                 Pr/135 Av/95   Pr/124 Av/95            
Andino                 Vg/129       Av/129                
Tatum         Av                                      
Krynzel*                                Vg/121 Fr/189 Vg/121
Donachie       Av                                      
Florimon#                          Av/168                
Rowell*                      Fr/148                 Pr/253

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name           PO   EX   VG   AV   FR   PO       COMP 1       COMP 2       COMP 3
MarkakisNick     RF   17%  32%  23%  19%  10%    ChapmanBen     WallsLee     WelshJimmy
RobertsBrian     2B   47%  20%  15%  11%  7%    DurhamRay     LopesDavey DeShieldsDelino
JonesAdam       CF   21%  24%  32%  18%  4%    BurksEllisMetkovichCatfish     ByrdMarlon
ScottLuke       DH   5%  15%  22%  39%  19%  McQuinnGeorge   DaubachBrian     BreamSid
ReimoldNolan     LF   4%  13%  19%  31%  34%    SwobodaRon   RiosArmando   CarreonMark
WiggintonTy     1B   2%  6%  11%  37%  45%    VitielloJoe     DropoWalt     MormanRuss
WietersMatt       C   9%  34%  34%  20%  3%  PaulinoRonny     DavisBen   WillardJerry
MontanezLuis     LF   0%  3%  5%  14%  78%  RoettgerWally     KennedyBob   BillingsDick
MooreScott       3B   2%  4%  13%  32%  49%    RowdonWade     NortonGreg   RodriguezBoi
AubreyMichael     1B   0%  1%  2%  14%  84%      MeyerDan     BrownMike   SiebertDick
FiorentinoJeff   RF   0%  1%  3%  12%  83%  VukovichGeorge   BradshawTerry     DunbarTom
PieFelix       LF   0%  1%  2%  8%  89%    ButlerRich     YobsDave   SheridanPat
MoraMelvin       3B   1%  2%  6%  18%  74%    DykesJimmie     ZeileTodd RobinsonBrooks
BellJosh       3B   0%  0%  4%  16%  80%  AndrewsShane   GonzalezDenny     DuncanEric
ChristianJustin   CF   1%  1%  6%  25%  66%  EllisonJason     ClinesGene     ScottTony
TurnerJustin     2B   0%  0%  2%  10%  88%  GustineFrankie   LansingMike   GriffinDoug
SnyderBrandon     1B   0%  0%  0%  1%  99%    RoskosJohn   EylwardMike   PetersonBrock
TuckerJonathan   LF   0%  0%  0%  0%  100%  FicklinWinston   MitchellBobby   JohnsonBrent
HammockRobby     C   0%  1%  2%  15%  83%      CoxLarry     KnorrRandy McCulloughClyde
IzturisCesar     SS   0%  0%  1%  11%  88%  FigueroaLuis GriffinAlfredo   RunnellsTom
DortaMelvin     3B   0%  0%  0%  0%  100%    SularzGuy CalzadoNapoleon   JacksonChuck
HughesRhyne     1B   0%  0%  0%  0%  100%    BarnesLarry   MulhernRyan     NealSteve
AdamsRyan       2B   0%  0%  0%  0%  100%  RodriguezEdwin   SchultzGreg   NoboaJunior
PinckneyBrandon   3B   0%  0%  0%  1%  99%    HammondJoey     IorgGarth DallimoreBrian
AndinoRobert     SS   0%  0%  2%  4%  93%  CosmeCaonabo     LopezMendy   FurmaniakJ.J.
CostanzoMike     3B   0%  0%  0%  1%  99%    QuinlanTom   McnallySean     ArndtLarry
FigueroaDaniel   CF   0%  0%  0%  2%  97%    StrongJamal   MyersAdrian     PrietoRick
MoellerChad       C   0%  0%  1%  4%  95%  DifeliceMike SantiagoBenito     BordersPat
TatumCraig       C   0%  0%  0%  1%  99%    LopezPedro   ParrishDave   MahoneyMike
KrynzelDave     CF   0%  0%  0%  1%  98%  MendezVictor   MaddoxGarry   LathamChris
FlorimonPedro     SS   0%  0%  0%  0%  100%    MurphyTommy     BreamScott   CedenoDomingo
DonachieAdam     C   0%  0%  0%  0%  100%ConcepcionAlbert   MercedesHenry   ArdoinDanny
RowellBilly     RF   0%  0%  0%  0%  100%    SachseMatt   WhitakerChad     MooreVince

Name         .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB
MarkakisNick       42%    35%    26%    8%    44%    0%    13%    0%
RobertsBrian       27%    28%    11%    3%    47%    2%    1%    73%
JonesAdam         20%    10%    28%    5%    0%    1%    16%    0%
ScottLuke         6%    12%    23%    4%    0%    0%    11%    0%
ReimoldNolan       16%    12%    9%    2%    0%    0%    1%    0%
WiggintonTy       22%    8%    14%    2%    0%    0%    2%    0%
WietersMatt       24%    14%    4%    1%    0%    0%    1%    0%
MontanezLuis       25%    5%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
MooreScott         4%    2%    7%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
AubreyMichael       18%    1%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
FiorentinoJeff       8%    3%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
PieFelix           6%    1%    1%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
MoraMelvin         9%    4%    2%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BellJosh           1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ChristianJustin     7%    1%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    28%
TurnerJustin       10%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
SnyderBrandon       1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
TuckerJonathan       3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HammockRobby       1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
IzturisCesar       5%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
DortaMelvin         6%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HughesRhyne         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
AdamsRyan         3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
PinckneyBrandon     8%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
AndinoRobert       2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CostanzoMike       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
FigueroaDaniel       1%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
MoellerChad         2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
TatumCraig         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
KrynzelDave         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
FlorimonPedro       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
DonachieAdam       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
RowellBilly         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Brian Matusz*        23   4.69 10 11 28 28   153.2 163   80 15   61 118   97
Koji Uehara           35   4.83   4   5 16 15   98.2 109   53 16   19   68   94
Jeremy Guthrie         31   4.90 10 12 31 30   182.0 195   99 29   56 108   93
Chris Tillman         22   4.94   9 12 32 32   164.0 180   90 24   56 116   92
Bradley Bergesen       24   4.99   8 10 26 25   148.0 170   82 19   44   72   91
Rich Hill*          30   5.72   4   7 20 20   91.1   99   58 14   53   70   80
Jake Arrieta         24   5.82   6 12 26 26   128.1 145   83 19   72   89   78
Chris Lambert         27   6.12   5 11 32 22   132.1 164   90 22   55   80   74
Zach Britton*        22   6.15   5 12 27 26   127.1 152   87 18   78   70   73
David Hernandez       25   6.20   6 12 31 30   146.2 170 101 29   78 112   73
David Pauley         27   6.30   6 13 29 27   148.2 192 104 26   53   76   72
Jason Berken         26   6.56   6 14 30 29   144.0 193 105 22   61   78   69
Brandon Erbe         22   6.77   4 11 23 23   98.1 114   74 22   57   61   67
Troy Patton*          24   6.82   4 11 23 23   120.0 152   91 27   50   57   67
Chorye Spoone         24   7.11   2   6 12 11   50.2   59   40   9   43   27   64
Andy Mitchell         31   7.30   4 13 36 15   109.2 146   89 22   61   44   62
Chris Waters*        29   7.35   4 13 32 25   131.0 169 107 28   81   65   62
Alfredo Simon         29   8.13   1   3   8   7   34.1   48   31 10   15   16   56

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
James Johnson         27   4.46   5   5 64   0   72.2   75   36   8   27   49 102
Alberto Castillo*      34   4.72   2   3 58   0   53.1   57   28   6   22   39   96
Cla Meredith         27   4.76   3   4 76   0   75.2   87   40   8   26   48   96
Danys Baez           32   4.96   4   5 57   0   61.2   64   34   8   24   36   92
Chris Ray           28   5.13   2   3 40   0   40.1   44   23   5   19   35   89
Matt Albers           27   5.15   3   5 55   1   71.2   80   41   7   36   46   88
Jim Miller           28   5.22   4   5 59   0   69.0   75   40   8   35   51   87
Kameron Mickolio       26   5.27   3   5 48   0   56.1   61   33   7   32   47   86
Mark Hendrickson*      36   5.69   4   7 43 13   106.0 127   67 17   36   61   80
Brian Bass           28   5.71   3   5 55   0   86.2 103   55 13   41   53   80
Ross Wolf           27   5.77   2   5 50   0   64.0   76   41   9   30   37   79
Dennis Sarfate         29   5.86   2   4 45   1   55.1   58   36   9   39   51   78
Armando Gabino         26   5.92   3   7 47   4   83.2 102   55 12   39   43   77
Luis Lebron           25   5.92   2   4 55   0   51.2   51   34   8   45   55   77
Wilfredo Perez*        25   6.21   1   3 32   0   42.0   45   29   6   35   32   73
Bob McCrory           28   6.79   1   3 52   0   57.0   72   43   9   38   31   67

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player         PO     TOP   MID   BOT         COMP 1         COMP 2         COMP 3
JohnsonJim       RP     17%  55%  28%    JimenezJose   WilliamsonMark     CatherMike
MatuszBrian     SP     20%  62%  18%      ParraManny     JacksonDanny     BedardErik
CastilloAlberto   RP     14%  42%  45%    NitkowskiC.J.      AgostoJuan   DarensbourgVic
MeredithCla     RP     6%  49%  45%  WilliamsonMark   TavarezJulian PichardoHipolito
UeharaKoji       SP     20%  51%  29%      ReedRick   SandersonScott       ByrdPaul
GuthrieJeremy     SP     8%  58%  34%      SuppanJeff     HarnischPete     SmithsonMike
TillmanChristopher SP     10%  57%  33%      LackeyJohn     ValeraJulio       NiedDavid
BaezDanys       RP     5%  37%  58%      FioreTony     LancasterLes     KoploveMike
BergesenBradley   SP     8%  52%  39%      FreedDan     LittellMark     JohnsonJoe
RayChris       RP     7%  30%  63%      ShueyPaul     BeanColter     AquinoGreg
AlbersMatt       RP     3%  32%  65%      FioreTony   ShepherdKeith     DipotoJerry
MillerJim       RP     2%  29%  69%      SalmonBrad       SmithRoy     KolbBrandon
MickolioKameron   RP     3%  31%  67%      BarryKevin       StoopsJim       WardDuane
HendricksonMark   SP     1%  12%  87%    OliverDarren     KruegerBill     HarrisMickey
BassBrian       RP     0%  13%  87%    McCurryJeff     SextonJeff   SaladinMiguel
HillRich       SP     3%  25%  73%      LollarTim       CreekDoug       KravecKen
WolfRoss       RP     0%  14%  85%      NickleDoug       SmithDave     KingCurtis
ArrietaJake     SP     1%  18%  82%    ClementMatt     ChaconShawnvan BenschotenJohn
SarfateDennis     RP     1%  13%  86%    MiadichBart     JonesCalvin     RuffinJohnny
GabinoArmando     RP     0%  8%  92%      KingCurtis     JamesJustin     GutierrezJim
LebronLuis       RP     1%  13%  86%      PlunkEric     CammackEric     SadlerBilly
LambertChris     SP     0%  11%  89%      DavisJason       TibbsJay     KimSun-Woo
BrittonZachary   SP     0%  9%  91%      KubesGreg     AllenHarold   ThompsonDerek
HernandezDavid   SP     0%  8%  92%    QuevedoRuben     BonserBoof     KinneyMatt
PerezWilfredo     RP     1%  11%  88%    WigginsScott   DavidsonJackie     MancusoPaul
LizRadhames     SP     0%  7%  93%      AquinoGreg       NewellTom     WrightMatt
PauleyDavid     SP     0%  5%  95%  ChristopherMike     LincolnMike     UngsNicholas
BerkenJason     SP     0%  2%  98%      SnyderJohn   RasnerDarrell     JonesMarcus
ErbeBrandon     SP     0%  2%  98%    BurttDennis     PetersonAdam     ThurmanCorey
McCroryBob       RP     0%  2%  98%    BumsteadMike       FordRusty       BakerRyan
PattonTroy       SP     0%  1%  99%  RobertsonJeriome     BohnetJohn     SimonsDoug
SpooneChorye     SP     0%  4%  95%    BoxbergerRod     FlorieBryce       FioreTony
MitchellAndy     SP     0%  1%  99%    RiddleElmer     MenhartPaul       OwensJim
WatersChris     SP     0%  0%  100%      SmithDan   RemlingerMike     WilliamsMatt
SimonAlfredo     SP     0%  2%  98%  EllsworthSteve     LintonDoug     CooperBrian

Player         130 ERA+  100 ERA+  K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9

<1
JohnsonJim 12% 60% 1% 2% 62%
MatuszBrian 3% 48% 8% 0% 76%
CastilloAlberto 10% 48% 9% 2% 54%
MeredithCla 4% 42% 0% 4% 65%
UeharaKoji 4% 43% 2% 80% 16%
GuthrieJeremy 1% 26% 1% 5% 9%
TillmanChristophe 1% 29% 3% 1% 15%
BaezDanys 5% 35% 0% 2% 45%
BergesenBradley 1% 28% 0% 10% 35%
RayChris 4% 29% 40% 1% 56%
AlbersMatt 2% 24% 1% 0% 68%
MillerJim 1% 25% 7% 0% 56%
MickolioKameron 3% 21% 29% 0% 44%
HendricksonMark 1% 10% 2% 6% 26%
BassBrian 0% 8% 0% 0% 26%
HillRich 0% 9% 14% 0% 25%
WolfRoss 0% 8% 0% 0% 30%
ArrietaJake 0% 4% 2% 0% 17%
SarfateDennis 0% 10% 58% 0% 19%
GabinoArmando 0% 4% 0% 0% 27%
LebronLuis 1% 10% 87% 0% 28%
LambertChris 0% 1% 0% 0% 12%
BrittonZachary 0% 1% 0% 0% 27%
HernandezDavid 0% 1% 8% 0% 2%
PerezWilfredo 1% 8% 17% 0% 41%
LizRadhames 0% 1% 1% 0% 13%
PauleyDavid 0% 0% 0% 1% 8%
BerkenJason 0% 0% 0% 0% 15%
ErbeBrandon 0% 0% 1% 0% 2%
McCroryBob 0% 1% 0% 0% 25%
PattonTroy 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SpooneChorye 0% 1% 0% 0% 25%
MitchellAndy 0% 0% 0% 0% 6%
WatersChris 0% 0% 0% 0% 3%
SimonAlfredo 0% 1% 0% 6% 4%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name           BA OBP SLG   G   AB     R     H   2B 3B   HR RBI   BB   SO SB CS OPS+
RobertsBrian   .276 .350 .413 2016 8040   1294   2217 571 51 143 768   940   1282 433 110   98
MarkakisNick   .286 .357 .454 2118 8170   1250   2333 535 26 264 1261   910   1395 109 54 108

All figures in % based on projection playing time

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

 

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees




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Dan Szymborski Posted: November 30, 2009 at 04:14 PM | 73 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: November 30, 2009 at 04:19 PM (#3399046)
Wow, rough pitching staff.

Did Luke Scott not play enough 1B innings to get a rating there?
   2. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: November 30, 2009 at 04:28 PM (#3399060)
Man, to hell with the alphabet, do the Marlins.
   3. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 30, 2009 at 04:32 PM (#3399063)
Yeah, Scott should have a 1B rating.
   4. Gamingboy Posted: November 30, 2009 at 04:33 PM (#3399066)
4th place or bust.
   5. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: November 30, 2009 at 04:46 PM (#3399082)
I don't get your objection to a guy like Delgado on a one year deal. Signing a few FAs to reasonable short term deals isn't incompatible with rebuilding as long as those deals aren't crippling the team (and Delgado or Nick Johnson for 1 year and $8 million or something obviously won't) and the players aren't blocking prospects. Snyder should start the year in AAA, and if he's tearing it up they can trade Delgado for whatever or move him to DH.
   6. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 30, 2009 at 04:57 PM (#3399097)
Signing a few FAs to reasonable short term deals isn't incompatible with rebuilding as long as those deals aren't crippling the team (and Delgado or Nick Johnson for 1 year and $8 million or something obviously won't) and the players aren't blocking prospects.

No prospects aren't blocked, but there's always the missed opportunity to take a high-risk flier on someone who could help the team cheaply for few years.

Someone like Ryan Shealy and $7 million could be sure as hell a lot more valuable to the team's future than going from 67 to 70 wins. The Orioles are not going to be run like a large-market team, so why flush $8 million down the crapper? It's certainly not an attendance issue - the Orioles played the Plug In The Veteran Name To Keep Fans Happy game for a decade and lost 50% of their attendance. The O's have already lost the interest of the "We'll Pay Money To See A Slightly Less Horrible Team With Names We Remember!" crowd.
   7. DKDC Posted: November 30, 2009 at 05:07 PM (#3399107)
Grading on an Orioles curve, that starting pitching actually looks pretty good. That’s 4 league averagish starting pitchers, three of whom are under 25 years old.

The bullpen looks like a train wreck, although hopefully Uehara and some of the failed starting pitching prospects will provide some support.

The offense is slightly below average, and could be slightly above average if they ignore Dan’s advice and sign stopgaps at the corners. I agree with #5 that they should go down that road if they aren’t able to acquire any interesting young major league talent at those positions.

This team is going to have to bring in some premium free agent talent to supplement for a run in the next couple years, and I do think that’s somewhat easier for an 80 win team than a 70 win team.
   8. DKDC Posted: November 30, 2009 at 05:11 PM (#3399113)
FYI, Chad Moeller's OPS+ is wrong.
   9. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 30, 2009 at 05:22 PM (#3399124)
FYI, Chad Moeller's OPS+ is wrong.

Did Dan forget the minus sign?
   10. Barnaby Jones Posted: November 30, 2009 at 05:22 PM (#3399125)
That's a rather depressing set of comps for Wieters.
   11. Eugene Freedman Posted: November 30, 2009 at 05:25 PM (#3399127)
I'd like to see the O's take a flier on a thirdbaseman (Brandon Wood would be nice) until Bell is ready and trade for Miguel Cabrera. He's young enough and a real impact bat. Plus, they were willing to spend the money on Tex last year, so why not put it toward Cabrera (with the Tigers eating a piece of the out years).
   12. RJ in TO Posted: November 30, 2009 at 05:30 PM (#3399130)
(Brandon Wood would be nice)


Is there any indication at all that Brandon Wood is available? With Figgins almost certainly gone from Anaheim, I thought he would be under the category of near-untouchable.
   13. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 30, 2009 at 05:37 PM (#3399136)
Looks like they could use Steve Traschel.
   14. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: November 30, 2009 at 05:38 PM (#3399137)
Any system that projects Wieters' OPS+ at 98 is clearly broken!
   15. puck Posted: November 30, 2009 at 05:40 PM (#3399140)
I remember looking at Jim Johnson sometime before the trading deadline last year, probably late June, thinking maybe he's a good trade candidate. He'd be cheaper than Sherrill, has one more slave year, and maybe he makes up for the low K rates with a sinker. Looking at his 2nd half numbers and ZiPS, I guess not.
   16. Barnaby Jones Posted: November 30, 2009 at 05:48 PM (#3399141)
That's Jim "lowest ZiPS ERA on the O's" Johnson to you, sir.
   17. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 30, 2009 at 05:56 PM (#3399151)
No prospects aren't blocked, but there's always the missed opportunity to take a high-risk flier on someone who could help the team cheaply for few years.

Someone like Ryan Shealy and $7 million could be sure as hell a lot more valuable to the team's future than going from 67 to 70 wins. The Orioles are not going to be run like a large-market team, so why flush $8 million down the crapper? It's certainly not an attendance issue - the Orioles played the Plug In The Veteran Name To Keep Fans Happy game for a decade and lost 50% of their attendance. The O's have already lost the interest of the "We'll Pay Money To See A Slightly Less Horrible Team With Names We Remember!" crowd.
Right. It's a completely pointless move to sign a Delgado. There's no upside; even if it "works," so what?

If it doesn't work -- if Delgado is mediocre or bad -- it's purely wasted money. On the other hand, if it does work - if Delgado has a good year -- then it does interfere with rebuilding. Because if you do this, what happens in 2011? Your team has just unexpectedly improved thanks to a good year from your FA. Is the front office going to let him walk away and let the team take a step backwards? Or will they try to squeeze just one more year out of him?

Moreover, as for Yeargh's "if Snyder's tearing it up they can trade Delgado," there is no player who (a) will want to sign with the Orioles, (b) will sign a "reasonable short term deal," and (c) will have any trade value. I really wish people would stop with the "sign a FA and then flip him at midseason" notion.

The bottom line is that the signing of a Delgado is a consumer fraud; it's a way to pretend to the fan base that one is further along than one is in the rebuilding process, by adding a few extra short term wins that won't be in the long term plans. As Dan notes, it doesn't even work; it's pretty clear at this point in the Orioles' history that fans just don't care about the difference between 65 and 75 wins, even if the FAs could make up that kind of difference. Fans aren't coming back until this team shows that it's a good team again.


(That having been said, Dan, 2012/2013? That's too late. The Orioles can't, unfortunately, do anything in 2010, but they need to be looking at 2011. In 2012, Roberts will already be 34, and we'll actually have used up much of Markakis's contract extension. If we're not going to spend big bucks anymore, we can't squander the pre-arb years of all of our young players.)
   18. Walt Davis Posted: November 30, 2009 at 07:44 PM (#3399278)
ChapmanBen [Markakis' #1 comp]

Let's hope the baseball gods didn't choose to re-read "J Henry Waugh ..." this offseason.

MetkovichCatfish [Jones' #2 comp]

Oh, c'mon, you made that one up!

Any system that projects Wieters' OPS+ at 98 is clearly broken!

It's a typo. There's supposed to be a 1 in front of that. Still disappointing I know.

It's kinda sad to see the Markakis projection -- I think it's probably accurate but this means that he's 26 and just an average corner OF. His upside now is, what, Shawn Green?

I was hoping for a better Felix Pie projection.

But there is something to like about the O's offense. They're above-average at C, 2B and CF. That makes it a lot easier to create an average or better offense when the time comes. But, as DN points out, that time better come quick.

EDIT: and, yikes, that is one thoroughly crappy pitching staff. How can anybody have a bullpen that projects that badly? I didn't think it was possible. And it's bad enough that none of the starters project very well but the O's also have to hope they all stay healthy. This team is in desperate need of some innings-eaters. Even Livan pitching BP every 5th game might not be a bad idea.
   19. birdlives is one crazy ninja Posted: November 30, 2009 at 07:58 PM (#3399297)
RE: Stop gaps. It seems like we're choosing between two choices that don't have a probability toward finding players with long-term viability. I'm certainly not going to argue that the "sign a FA and then flip him at midseason" move is a safe bet. But it's possible, but unlikely, such a move can help the long term viability of the franchise. The Traschel trade brought in some young players. Unfortunately, they didn't work out in the long term although I suppose it's possible that Scott Moore could still turn it around. The alternative, digging through minor league free agents, isn't exactly a high probability move either. I personally liked Dallas McPherson but it looks like the A's picked him. But I wouldn't feel comfortable that I've found a long term answer even if we signed him. Neither strategy should be building blocks for building a franchise in comparison to drafting and development. I would rather hunt for arb eligible players cut by their teams (potentially Dan Uggla for example) than either of these strategies.
   20. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 30, 2009 at 08:05 PM (#3399305)
It would be fun to see Andy Mitchell get a shot - fun for opposing hitters, that is. He's the kind of guy who you wouldn't mind seeing throw a couple of innings in the majors someday - you'd just hope it would be for someone else.

Catfish Metkovich was a minor Pacific Coast League star who had a brief major league run with the Red Sox as a 1B/OF during and just after WWII and then came back to the majors a few years later, kicking around some of the lesser teams. He's probably best remembered for a story that Joe Garagiola told about the 1952 Pirates, for whom Metkovich toiled. After a particularly nasty days of line drives at 1B, Metkovich turned to the umpire and said "What are you waiting for? Grab a glove and help me out!" He's about as comparable to Jones as I am. The nickname "Catfish" came about after Metkovich stepped on a catfish while trying to remove it from the hook, injuring his ankle in the process (catfish have sharp fins).

-- MWE
   21. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: November 30, 2009 at 08:12 PM (#3399309)
It's kinda sad to see the Markakis projection -- I think it's probably accurate but this means that he's 26 and just an average corner OF. His upside now is, what, Shawn Green?

How does that follow? Markakis was terrific in 2008 and mediocre in 2009. There's no way to know which version (or an average of the two as ZIPS projects) is the more likely future path.
   22. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 30, 2009 at 08:39 PM (#3399337)
Any system that projects Wieters' OPS+ at 98 is clearly broken!

Sorry, it's projecting 98 moles of OPS+.
   23. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 30, 2009 at 08:46 PM (#3399340)
Our friends over at Camden Chat aren't too enthused about these!

I should note, that on the Montanez vs. Wieters .300 issue, Montanez has a better chance of hitting .300 in the number of at-bats projected. Wieters is projected to have 50% more at-bats than Montanez, so of course Montanez's rate numbers are going to have higher upside and downside. If I had projected Montanez to only have 10 at-bats, he'd have a 10-15% chance of hitting .400!.
   24. RJ in TO Posted: November 30, 2009 at 08:47 PM (#3399342)
His upside now is, what, Shawn Green?


Aww, are you going to have to settle for an upside of a guy who had a 4 year run from 26-29 as a 140+ OPS+ OF, before trashing his shoulder?

Almost any team out there would be thrilled to have aguy with Sean Green's upside.
   25. Dingbat_Charlie Posted: November 30, 2009 at 09:24 PM (#3399385)
How can you complain about a bullpen that boasts Mark Williamson comps for each of its top two righthanders? That's a sweet slice of O's mediocrity from days of yore.
   26. Posada Posse Posted: November 30, 2009 at 09:39 PM (#3399393)
That's a rather depressing set of comps for Wieters.


Paulino, Davis and Willard - the Holy Trinity of suckitude.
   27. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 30, 2009 at 09:59 PM (#3399408)
Wieters comps are good examples of how unpredictable the offensive development of young catchers is. Lest we forget, Ben Davis was a highly-touted prospect who played extremely well in AA and AAA and Ronny Paulino his 285/344/480 for Altoona at 23, 315/372/538 for Indianapolis at 24, and had a 96 OPS+ with good defense as a full-time rookie at 25. Willard played really well at AAA as well.

It's not like ZiPS is projecting Wieters to hit like Scott Servais. It's "merely" projecting a 24-year to be one of the better catchers in the league. I'd love for Wieters to be an MVP candidate right now, but that's just not the way to bet from his play so far.
   28. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 30, 2009 at 10:09 PM (#3399418)
The Traschel trade brought in some young players. Unfortunately, they didn't work out in the long term
Or the short term, either. I liked this trade, but notwithstanding the fact that getting anything more than a free pair of bleacher tickets for Trachsel was a bonus, the Orioles decided about seven minutes after they made the trade that they just didn't care about any of these guys.

although I suppose it's possible that Scott Moore could still turn it around. The alternative, digging through minor league free agents, isn't exactly a high probability move either. I personally liked Dallas McPherson but it looks like the A's picked him. But I wouldn't feel comfortable that I've found a long term answer even if we signed him.
Sure, but you'd feel comfortable that you <u>haven't</u> found a long term answer if you sign Delgado.
Neither strategy should be building blocks for building a franchise in comparison to drafting and development. I would rather hunt for arb eligible players cut by their teams (potentially Dan Uggla for example) than either of these strategies.
Me too, but the difference is that minor league free agents are not only really cheap, but they're freely available; they don't even cost a 40-man roster spot.
   29. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 30, 2009 at 10:18 PM (#3399424)
It's kind of nice to see Luis Montanez develop into a viable ML bench player so many years after everybody had written him off as a total bust.
   30. birdlives is one crazy ninja Posted: November 30, 2009 at 10:38 PM (#3399442)
the Orioles decided about seven minutes after they made the trade that they just didn't care about any of these guys.

Scott Moore hasn't been very healthy (he only played in 32 games in AAA this year). And he hit .728 OPS in AAA last year. That's probably what did him in. Cherry isn't getting any love from anyone. He's available though as a minor league free agent.

Sure, but you'd feel comfortable that you haven't found a long term answer if you sign Delgado.

Depends if you flip him at the deadline for prospects. Again, it's not likely but neither is finding a diamond in the rough among the minor league free agents.
   31. DKDC Posted: November 30, 2009 at 10:56 PM (#3399460)
Me too, but the difference is that minor league free agents are not only really cheap, but they're freely available; they don't even cost a 40-man roster spot.


And they are also spectacularly unlikely ever to be major league regulars if no team is willing to offer them a guaranteed deal.

You yourself say that the Orioles should be looking to compete in 2011, so when do you propose they fill this massive talent gap between themselves and the rest of the division?

Right now they are at least a 1B, 3B, SS, 2 starters, and several relievers short of a competitive team in 2011. They’ll likely have even more holes to fill due to injuries and unexpected performance declines. Without adding some serious talent to the organization, the only way this team will be competitive in 2011 is if Snyder and Bell and Arrieta and Erbe and Britton all miraculously pan out.

The Orioles are sitting on a $45 million payroll right now. I’m no fan of signing Delgado, but if the right two or three year deal for a Beltre or Haren or Scutaro or Figgins or a league-average innings-eater comes along, I hope they take it.
   32. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: November 30, 2009 at 11:14 PM (#3399488)
The whole "flip him for prospects" issue is a red herring. I don't think the Orioles should sign a Delgado or Johnson type with the intention of flipping them. They should sign guys like that if they'll help the team win in the short term and won't hurt the team in the long term by blocking prospects or tying up payroll. I don't buy the idea that the on the field performance makes no difference in the short term. I'd like to see the team improve, as would the players and potential FAs down the road. The Orioles aren't likely to follow the Rays approach of sucking and then suddenly winning 98 games.
   33. rlc Posted: November 30, 2009 at 11:16 PM (#3399494)
I agree that the first and third base holes should be used to add more talent that could contribute in the '11-'15 timeframe. The disagreement lies in how best to do so. Since there are no proven young contributors available for just money (Beltre is probably the closest thing), the strategy is to add some guys with upside and hope they can break out. Then they can be traded for young talent or retained if there's any reason to think they can continue to perform.

So who are the best bets to suddenly up their value in 2010? Guys coming off injuries, like Delgado and Glaus (and Beltre), guys who haven't yet lived up to their potential, like Blalock and Kotchman (if the Sox non-tender him), or guys who are decent hitters near the middle of their career, like LaRoche and Johnson? Lacking the useful scouting info that (I hope) the O's have, I still lean towards whoever will sign a reasonable short term deal. At $8 million, Delgado's not worth it, but is he really going to get an offer like that?
   34. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: November 30, 2009 at 11:24 PM (#3399506)
To be clear, I just threw out Delgado for $8 million as an example. I have no particular love for or interest in Delgado. In fact, my first choice for 1b would probably be Johnson, since he has the greatest potential to suddenly up his value, as you put it, and should be available for a reasonable 1-2 year deal.
   35. rlc Posted: November 30, 2009 at 11:33 PM (#3399526)
Dan started the $8 million for Delgado meme up in the intro.

Among the candidates, Johnson is the best bet to hit well in '10, but he's also a good bet to suffer some crippling injury in May. I wouldn't be surprised if some team offered him a multi-year deal.
   36. kwarren Posted: December 01, 2009 at 01:14 AM (#3399613)
Any system that projects Wieters' OPS+ at 98 is clearly broken!



I always thought that the best way to evaluate whether a projection system is "broken" or not is to pick my favourite player and see if the system is as wildly optimistic about said player as I am. If it's not, then the system is clearly broken. I'm glad to see that other people use this evaluation method also.

The famous "we love prospects" Bill James method projects Wieters at an .865 OPS. Clearly his system is in fine shape. AROM chimes in at .791 so his system is clearly broken too, just not quite as hopeless as the dismal state of ZIPS.

Oh well, at least Adam Jones has a OPS projected above .800.

Best Regards
   37. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: December 01, 2009 at 01:27 AM (#3399626)
Any system that projects Wieters' OPS+ at 98 is clearly broken!

I always thought that the best way to evaluate whether a projection system is "broken" or not is to pick my favourite player and see if the system is as wildly optimistic about said player as I am. If it's not, then the system is clearly broken. I'm glad to see that other people use this evaluation method also.


Yet another great moment in online sarcasm detection.
   38. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 01, 2009 at 01:57 AM (#3399644)
Ronny Paulino his 285/344/480 for Altoona at 23, 315/372/538 for Indianapolis at 24, and had a 96 OPS+ with good defense as a full-time rookie at 25.


Paulino wasn't all that bad for Florida a year ago, either.

Dan's point is well-taken. Sandy Alomar Jr., another highly-touted young catching prospect, is another example pf what can happen to a young catcher. As a 24-YO rookie in 1990, he won RoY with numbers not a whole lot different from Wieters's (although in a different offensive context which made them more valuable). He then played 340 games over the next five seasons due to assorted injuries, and while he normally hit fairly well when he could play he never again played as many games in a season as he did as a rookie.

The thing that concerns me most about Wieters is that he is a big guy. Bill James once wrote that while teams had the opinion that big catchers were a good thing to have, they actually *weren't* as durable as smaller catchers; James opined that the larger frames created additional knee and back stress. I don't know that James was entirely correct (Fisk was a pretty big guy and Piazza was 6'3" although not overly large-framed) but I think his broader point has some validity.

-- MWE
   39. Walt Davis Posted: December 01, 2009 at 01:58 AM (#3399646)
How does that follow? Markakis was terrific in 2008 and mediocre in 2009. There's no way to know which version (or an average of the two as ZIPS projects) is the more likely future path.

I was trying to think of somebody a little better than Green but, y'know, a man has to get on with his life at some point. Green had a career 120 OPS+ which is probably low for a Markakis "upside" (note I use upside as "realistic upside" not "best possible outcome") but probably not by much. Markakis is projected to a flat prime -- he's 26 and not projected to hit better than his career average -- which, followed by a standard decline, is not going to add up to a 120 career OPS+. In fact, I'm pretty sure that adds up to about a 108 career OPS+, so a 120 career OPS+ is pretty upside-y.

(Hey Dan, the Markakis comps look whack. Not only is everybody from 50+ years ago -- which is odd for a guy who projects as pretty average -- but Chapman's the only one who hit close to Markakis by OPS+ standards.)

Aww, are you going to have to settle for an upside of a guy who had a 4 year run from 26-29 as a 140+ OPS+ OF, before trashing his shoulder?Almost any team out there would be thrilled to have aguy with Sean Green's upside.

For comp purposes, it doesn't really matter how Green ended up with the career that he had. What I'm saying is that a guy who projects as a league-average RF at 26 would be "reasonably lucky" to end up having a few seasons of killing the ball followed by a few seasons back at league average. His chances of turning into a true 140 OPS+ hitter from, say, ages 26-33 -- which Green might have been sans injury -- strike me as "unrealistic upside".

And, no, I'm not sure that many teams would be "thrilled" if their best hitting prospect, the guy they expect to be the star of their team for years to come, had an upside of a career 120 OPS+.
   40. DFA Posted: December 01, 2009 at 02:08 AM (#3399660)
Grading on an Orioles curve, that starting pitching actually looks pretty good. That’s 4 league averagish starting pitchers, three of whom are under 25 years old.


This was my reaction too. If Tillman only gives up 24HR in 168 innings, that'd be a shocker. But still wet behind the ears. I'd love to see 4 starters all around league average. That team might win 75 games as is, and that would be quite the trick.

I was a little bummed to see Wieters OPS+ south of 200, but I'm pretty sure computers live in fear of him too.
   41. Git 'er Dunn Posted: December 01, 2009 at 04:18 PM (#3400060)
Luke Scott's projection isn't too bad. They could probably get a decent return for him on the trade market. It'd be a shame if a 32 year old mediocre player is still clogging up the DH slot in 2010 while the team is trying to rebuild.
   42. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 01, 2009 at 04:45 PM (#3400088)
That doesn't seem like a bad spot to have a 32-year-old player clogging up, since teams will not put any rookie or second-year player as a full-time DH unless he is about forty pounds overweight and projects to be by far their best hitter. If the team can't find one of their own outfielders or first basemen whose defense is declining to put at DH, it ends up being a platoon.

(although maybe you're saying that Nolan Reimold should be the DH)
   43. tropicofcancer Posted: December 01, 2009 at 06:46 PM (#3400233)
Bergesen's is a joke. 4.99? Really?
   44. Walt Davis Posted: December 01, 2009 at 07:37 PM (#3400322)
Luke Scott's projection isn't too bad. They could probably get a decent return for him on the trade market.

Probably not. Branyan, Johnson, LaRoche, Nady are as good or better than Scott. Maybe even Hinske and Blalock and that's just what's available on the ML FA market not to mention Scott types floating around the minor-league FA market, plus other trade targets. He can be a good guy to move at the trade deadline though.

Bergesen's is a joke. 4.99? Really?

I love comments like this because when I first read them, I'm not sure whether they think it should be higher or lower.
   45. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: December 01, 2009 at 07:56 PM (#3400347)
4.99 sounds about right for Bergesen, doesn't it? Actually, Bergesen kinda seems like he should be on the Twins.

I should note, that on the Montanez vs. Wieters .300 issue, Montanez has a better chance of hitting .300 in the number of at-bats projected.

Wouldn't it be more useful to, in those probabilities, list not the chance of Player X tallying Y in his projected Z plate appearances but rather his chances of doing Y if he ends up getting enough playing time to qualify? Like you said, if a guy (Rocco Baldelli squared?) is only projected to get a handful of PAs, who cares that he's somewhat likely to luck into a .400 average? I would think people would be interested in sizing up the chances of Ted Williams' 1941, not his 1953.
   46. rlc Posted: December 01, 2009 at 09:08 PM (#3400435)
Bergesen kinda seems like he should be on the Twins


Dat sounds like dat dere racial profiling dere, Lena.
   47. fra paolo Posted: December 01, 2009 at 09:11 PM (#3400441)
In 2002, offered the choice of whether Austin Kearns or Ty Wigginton would have the longer major-league career, who would you have picked? And can we declare Ty the winner yet?
   48. jingoist Posted: December 01, 2009 at 10:04 PM (#3400534)
I think the O's are solid defensivly up the middle: Roberts is a good to good+ 2B-man; Weiters looks to be a good defensive catcher - although I'm not overly fond of how he handles the young starting pitchers - and Jones looks to be the best thing the O's have had in CF since a young Brady Anderson.
Hopefully Andino will get a few more chance at SS; Izturis was wonderful with the glove last year and he single-handedly won several games with great fielding and timely hitting but if the Os are to grow better they need a breakout or greatly improved year from Andino.
I also like the outfield of Reimold, Jones and Markakis, especially if Nick reverts to the 2008 version. But even if he doesn't all 3 guys should have better slugging rates the next few years as their bodies mature.

Hitting and fielding will be the least of the team's worries.

Its the pitching I dont like.
How can you win 80 games with an MLB staff that sports a 6 run ERA?
   49. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: December 01, 2009 at 10:24 PM (#3400562)
I don't buy the idea that the on the field performance makes no difference in the short term.
Makes a difference for what? Have you watched the Orioles for the last 12 years? They've been signing these sorts of players, on the grounds that a few extra wins were needed to attract fans/attract free agents/etc., for that entire time. And it hasn't attracted fans, hasn't attracted free agents, and hasn't helped the team rebuild.
I'd like to see the team improve, as would the players and potential FAs down the road.
Why would a potential FA down the road care whether the 2010 Orioles -- a team he isn't on -- won 65 games or 69 games?
The Orioles aren't likely to follow the Rays approach of sucking and then suddenly winning 98 games.
Not if they go around signing more "stopgaps," no. They're more likely to flounder in the low 70s, as they get confused about what their strategy actually is.
   50. JPWF13 Posted: December 01, 2009 at 10:33 PM (#3400572)
In 2002, offered the choice of whether Austin Kearns or Ty Wigginton would have the longer major-league career, who would you have picked? And can we declare Ty the winner yet?


Not yet, TY only has a lead of 64 games/ 93 PAs, plus he was brutal in 2009 as well
   51. fra paolo Posted: December 01, 2009 at 10:49 PM (#3400585)
plus he was brutal in 2009 as well

Was Kearns only worth <u>a bench role</u> for the Washington Nationals because he was out of options? Brutal is as brutal does.
   52. ugen64 Posted: December 02, 2009 at 12:53 AM (#3400664)
It's interesting that you mention the Rays. If you look at the 2008 team, they only had a handful of players that can be considered "expensive stopgaps" (in the sense of a Carlos Delgado type player).

Dioner Navarro - farm system product
Carlos Pena - *minor league deal* (kind of defeats that theory that you can't find good ML quality players on minor league deals)
Akinori Iwamura - international free agent on a club-friendly, long-term deal
Jason Bartlett - acquired in a trade as a cheap club-controlled player
Evan Longoria - farm system product
Gabe Gross - acquired in a trade, on a league minimum salary
B.J. Upton - farm system product
Carl Crawford - farm system product
Cliff Floyd - there's a stopgap, only cost $3 million though
Eric Hinske - only cost $800,000

we all know that their pitching staff was full of farm system products, players acquired in trades, and at the back end of the bullpen you saw Grant Balfour (minor league deal), Dan Wheeler (paid $2.9 million that year), and Troy Percival (paid $3.9 million, for below replacement level production)

so I see 3 players who might fall under the "expensive stopgap" category - they each cost in the $3-4 range. that's the equivalent of guys like Ty Wigginton, Cesar Izturis, Ryan Freel, Mark Hendrickson, and Gregg Zaun last season. I do expect us to go after one or two of these players (Pedro Feliz looks the most likely), and obviously Wigginton and Izturis (and probably Hendrickson) will still be on the team next season. but there's no $8 million free agents on this Rays roster, and I hope there aren't any on the 2010 O's. the only position I could possibly see us taking on that much salary is a salary dump innings eater like Millwood or Arroyo, since we do have a lot of free payroll space.
   53. JJ1986 Posted: December 02, 2009 at 01:08 AM (#3400677)
Navarro was a part of the Hendrickson trade.
   54. kwarren Posted: December 02, 2009 at 05:31 PM (#3401166)
Bergesen's is a joke. 4.99? Really?


Once again ZIPS has dissed someone's favourite player. So sorry.
   55. RJ in TO Posted: December 02, 2009 at 05:34 PM (#3401171)
Once again ZIPS has dissed someone's favourite player. So sorry.


You don't know that it's a diss. It's entirely possible that he believes that there's no way that Bergesen will produce anything as good as a 4.99 ERA.
   56. kwarren Posted: December 02, 2009 at 05:40 PM (#3401179)
Any system that projects Wieters' OPS+ at 98 is clearly broken!


Perhaps we have somebody who is prepared to project all the players and then compare his results to ZIPS to show us how broken ZIPS really is. Nah, I didn't think so. Better to make an off the cuff ignorant remark if our favourite player is perceived to be snubbed.

I would really like to see the analysis that supports the conclusion that players like Wieters and Bergesen should be given better projections. Then maybe a proper discussion could ensue. Maybe there is something wrong with the way ZIPS looks at players such as Wieters and Bergesen. But we'll never uncover it with comments like this.
   57. RJ in TO Posted: December 02, 2009 at 05:44 PM (#3401185)
Perhaps we have somebody who is prepared to project all the players and then compare his results to ZIPS to show us how broken ZIPS really is.


You're obviously not familiar with the running "Weiters is God!" joke around this place. That comment about the 98 OPS+ wasn't a real complaint.
   58. kwarren Posted: December 02, 2009 at 05:48 PM (#3401195)
Bergesen's is a joke. 4.99? Really?


Once again ZIPS has dissed someone's favourite player. So sorry.


You don't know that it's a diss. It's entirely possible that he believes that there's no way that Bergesen will produce anything as good as a 4.99 ERA.



It's not "entirely possible" that he believes that Bergesen should be projected with a much higher ERA.

Bergesen has posted minor league ERA's of 2.19, 2.08, 3.22, 2.45 with tremendously impressive K/BB ratios and posted a 3.43 ERA in 123 IP in his first major league season. It's pretty clear the guy thought that Bergesen should have a lot better projection for 2010.

So, yes I do know that he thought his guy was dissed.
   59. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 02, 2009 at 05:50 PM (#3401198)
"declare Ty the winner"

You just blew my mind.
   60. JPWF13 Posted: December 02, 2009 at 06:06 PM (#3401204)
It's not "entirely possible" that he believes that Bergesen should be projected with a much higher ERA.

***

So, yes I do know that he thought his guy was dissed.


Wieters projection looks reasonable considering he posted a 97 last year and he's a catcher, a little low, but not way out of line, I would have guessed 105 or so.

Bergesen.... I don't know, eyeballing it looks off, but his minor league K rate was very low, 87 in 165 IP in 2008, that's what, 70 in 165 as an mle? If his K rate drops that far and his .285 BABIP gravitates up to league average, then yes I can see a 4.99 ERA .
   61. DKDC Posted: December 02, 2009 at 06:36 PM (#3401236)
The guy who complained about Bergesen has made one post ever and is probably not interested in a serious review of what types of players ZiPS ends to over or under estimate.

Bergesen is interesting because he’s massively overrated among Orioles fans because of his lucky ERA last year, but he’s probably a bit underrated in general because pitchers of his type (very low Ks, but excellent BB and GB rates) don’t get a lot of hype.

I don’t have any coherent reason to think ZiPS is projecting these guys incorrectly, but if I had to bet on the Orioles starters ERA, I’d take the under on Bergesen and Matusz, and the over on Guthrie and Tillman.

Wieters mystifies the hell out of me, with BABIPs of .383, .383, .358, and .359 in the A, AA, AAA and the majors, and those all seem too high for a slow catcher. Even Mauer only has a lifetime BABIP of .349.
   62. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: December 02, 2009 at 06:50 PM (#3401259)
Bergesen is interesting because he’s massively overrated among Orioles fans because of his lucky ERA last year, but he’s probably a bit underrated in general because pitchers of his type (very low Ks, but excellent BB and GB rates) don’t get a lot of hype.

Depends on which fans you're talking about. The average guy listening to sports radio probably thinks Bergesen is an ace, but I think most serious and semiserious fans expect him to be a middle of the rotation guy with a league average or slightly above ERA, which I think is reasonable. But I agree with your over and under predictions, although Tillman is very difficult to predict and I wouldn't be surprised if Guthrie reverts back to his 2007-2008 form (nor would I be surprised if he falls apart completely).
   63. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 02, 2009 at 06:59 PM (#3401272)
The BABIP issue is what obscures the improvement ZiPS sees for him. ZiPS is actually projecting a significant improvement from 09 as it's projecting him to be slightly better overall with a nearly 30 point drop in BABIP.
   64. puck Posted: December 02, 2009 at 07:23 PM (#3401304)
Bergesen had really low minor league K rates, and it's somewhat telling that after a 15-6, 3.22 ERA season at Bowie, he still didn't make BA's top 10 list for the Orioles.

Issues about projections for guys like this (or Cook, Wang, and Lannan) do seem to come up all the time. Is GB rate fairly stable/repeatable year to year? If so, do pitchers with high GB rates tend to have better ERA's than FIP? Aaron Cook's ERA (4.33) is pretty close to his career FIP (4.36), though if you account for park effects the gap is probably around 0.40. Is that an unusual gap over 1080 career innings?
   65. JJ1986 Posted: December 02, 2009 at 07:32 PM (#3401313)
I like Bergesen because he works really fast. I wonder if that helps the defense behind him. Commentator's always say it does, but has anyone checked something like that.
   66. tropicofcancer Posted: December 04, 2009 at 02:07 AM (#3402898)
Pitcher BABIP doesn't tend to fluctuate as much as hitter BABIP, correct? The reason, obviously, is because sinkerballs are tough to square up but not necessarily tough to make contact against. Bergesen throws strikes, doesn't walk people, rarely gives up bombs, and actually posted a very comparable (even lower) BABIP in three other minor league stops. Now I know that the Carolina League isn't the AL East, but I think it's much more likely that he continues his impressive, under the radar performance than regresses to a #5 starter. At least give him the benefit of the doubt. That's all I'm saying.
   67. tropicofcancer Posted: December 04, 2009 at 02:10 AM (#3402901)
Moreover, his BB/9 projection is signficantly higher than at any other point in his career. That's an egregious error in my view
   68. puck Posted: December 04, 2009 at 02:38 AM (#3402932)
Bergesen's career BABIP in the minors is .300. Is that much lower than than the avg for those leagues?
   69. The District Attorney Posted: December 04, 2009 at 02:57 AM (#3402945)
Almost any team out there would be thrilled to have aguy with Sean Green's upside.
Two letters make a very big difference...

ChapmanBen [Markakis' #1 comp]

Let's hope the baseball gods didn't choose to re-read "J Henry Waugh ..." this offseason.
You're thinking of Ray Chapman. If Markakis takes after Ben, he'll spend his time tormenting Adam Jones and trying to drive him out of the league.

And if Wieters takes after Ben Davis, hey, knuckleballers can win a lot of games...
   70. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 04, 2009 at 03:42 AM (#3402987)
Pitcher BABIP doesn't tend to fluctuate as much as hitter BABIP, correct?

It doesn't fluctuate as much at the same level of ability. It's still going to go up advancing through the minors. A minor league pitcher with a .300 BABIP and lets a lot of balls in play is extremely risky.

Moreover, his BB/9 projection is signficantly higher than at any other point in his career. That's an egregious error in my view

That's only the case if you assume that BB/9 doesn't go up as the level of play improves. It does, however, and significantly.

There are a *lot* of warning signs with Bergesen. Limited track record at high level. ERA much lower than his peripherals. HR rate lower than you would expect from his flyballs allowed. Terrible K rate. Performance significantly better than what his minor league performance suggests.

I'm guessing I'd get a lot of similar reactions from Oriole fans if I went back in a time machine and projected Jeff Ballard to go 9-15, 5.01 in 1990 (I ran it a few years ago). Now, Bergesen has more going for him than Ballard did, but there are a a lot of reasons to be wary about Bergesen's performance going forward.
   71. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 08, 2009 at 07:28 PM (#3406836)
Quick question about the defensive projections: how do I interpret them?

From the instructions in the Twins TO:

Defense is given both as a range number in the same quintiles (EX/VG/AV/FR/PO). The number after
the range is the projected error rate as a percentage of league average, with higher numbers being
worse.


So, does that mean that Pie is projected to be very good in the OF, and have an error rate 29% higher than average?

Thanks!
   72. 47YOUNEVERKNOW47 Posted: January 19, 2010 at 04:17 AM (#3440735)
Brother Dan -

Any chance of Kevin Millwood and/or Garret Atkins projections as Orioles?
   73. bzalaski Posted: February 18, 2010 at 03:28 AM (#3462498)
Can we get a projection for Brandon Waring? Did I miss it?

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