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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, October 26, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Boston Red Sox

What can you say about the Red Sox?  They’re a solid organization, willing to invest in the team, and despite getting swept in the first round of the playoffs, they still went 95-67 in a tough division.

The Sox will need to replace Jason Bay’s bat somehow.  Bay’s unfortunately probably not going to be worth the Teixeira numbers being tossed around thanks to pretty poor defense and there’s simply no star bats coming up through the system at this moment.  The team was obviously hoping for a breakthrough season in the minors for Lars Anderson, but he instead hit like a utility infielder.  Reddick’s not going to be a Bay replacement and neither will Ryan Kalish (whose projection I now notice is missing and I will add), so the team’s going to have to be creative.  Luckily, the team tends to be creative.

 

Offensive Projections

Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Kevin Youkilis       1b 31 .282 .384 .491 137 507 84 143 30 2 24 83 74 120 5 3   127
Jason Bay           lf 31 .268 .368 .507 146 537 103 144 26 3 32 110 81 153 10 2   126
David Ortiz*        dh 34 .260 .366 .507 127 473 74 123 28 1 29 86 79 107 1 1   126
Victor Martinez#      c   31 .297 .369 .470 125 481 58 143 30 1 17 73 54 66 0 0   118
J.D. Drew*          rf 34 .264 .381 .459 120 405 70 107 22 3 17 57 75 99 3 3   119
Dustin Pedroia       2b 26 .306 .372 .451 148 594 97 182 40 2 14 65 59 47 16 4   114
Casey Kotchman*      1b 27 .280 .348 .430 123 407 49 114 26 1 11 58 39 45 1 1   102
Mike Lowell         3b 36 .282 .335 .453 114 433 51 122 24 1 16 68 36 61 2 1   104
Chris Carter*        1b 27 .281 .335 .429 130 501 56 141 27 1 15 67 40 82 1 0   98
Jacoby Ellsbury*      cf 26 .290 .344 .398 143 580 86 168 23 8 8 51 43 75 53 10   94
Jeff Bailey         1b 31 .258 .345 .415 108 388 53 100 18 2 13 43 45 92 3 2   98
Rocco Baldelli       rf 28 .261 .323 .453 66 203 30 53 10 1 9 30 15 51 3 1   100
George Kottaras*      c   27 .239 .316 .382 86 280 33 67 17 1 7 31 32 73 0 0   82
Jason Varitek#        c   38 .220 .323 .370 106 354 35 78 15 1 12 41 51 102 0 1   81
Jed Lowrie#          ss 26 .247 .318 .372 100 352 41 87 22 2 6 42 38 78 2 1   80
Jon van Every*        cf 30 .226 .301 .393 74 239 29 54 9 2 9 27 24 94 3 2   80
Mark Wagner         c   26 .250 .308 .363 96 372 35 93 24 0 6 44 30 71 1 1   75
Aaron Bates         1b 26 .244 .313 .344 124 479 50 117 22 1 8 48 37 122 1 0   72
Joey Gathright*      cf 29 .272 .339 .321 120 368 58 100 11 2 1 28 32 57 21 9   75
Angel Chavez         3b 28 .269 .301 .372 124 465 48 125 25 1 7 48 20 65 5 3   75
Josh Reddick*        cf 23 .248 .295 .386 116 448 49 111 19 5 11 44 30 103 7 4   77
Travis Denker         2b 24 .244 .312 .345 122 426 47 104 24 2 5 43 41 89 4 2   72
Carlos Maldonado       c   31 .247 .311 .353 49 150 15 37 7 0 3 22 14 31 0 0   74
Dusty Brown         c   27 .244 .310 .343 88 315 26 77 14 1 5 31 29 80 0 0   71
Ivan Ochoa#          ss 27 .252 .320 .338 82 266 36 67 10 2 3 19 22 55 11 4   73
Nick Green           ss 31 .241 .294 .377 106 332 35 80 16 1 9 36 21 87 2 4   74
Brian Anderson       cf 28 .238 .301 .372 111 282 35 67 15 1 7 26 23 77 4 5   75
Sea Bass Gonzalez     ss 33 .245 .289 .367 107 376 45 92 20 1 8 45 21 72 1 1   70
Yamaico Navarro       ss 22 .247 .293 .352 95 381 37 94 18 2 6 38 23 85 5 5   68
Lars Anderson*        1b 22 .227 .299 .326 126 494 47 112 23 1 8 48 51 138 1 0   64
Gil Velazquez         ss 30 .245 .287 .344 97 302 35 74 14 2 4 27 17 59 3 2   65
Chris Woodward       ss 34 .243 .301 .321 87 243 26 59 11 1 2 22 19 49 2 1   63
Luis Exposito         c   23 .239 .279 .351 105 419 34 100 21 1 8 44 21 103 2 2   64

Defensive Projections

Name           CThr 1b     2b     3b     ss     lf     cf     rf    
Youkilis           Av/62       Fr/87                      
Bay                                   Pr/92            
Ortiz*            Pr/130                                
Martinez#      Fr   Fr/100                                
Drew*                                            Vg/101
Pedroia                 Vg/78                            
Kotchman*          Av/59                                  
Lowell                       Av/91                      
Carter*            Pr/146                 Pr/108       Pr/137
Ellsbury*                                Vg/44   Av/94   Vg/44  
Bailey             Av/130                 Fr/166       Fr/166
Baldelli                                 Av/105 Av/118 Av/105
Kottaras*      Fr                                      
Varitek#        Pr                                      
Lowrie#                Av/108 Av/108 Av/108                
van Every*                              Av/75   Fr/75   Av/75  
Wagner         Vg                                      
Bates             Av/129                 Av/206            
Gathright*                              Vg/94   Vg/89      
Chavez                 Fr/120 Av/93   Fr/101                
Reddick*                                Av/121 Fr/173 Av/143
Denker                 Av/137 Av/121                      
Maldonado       Av                                      
Brown         Fr                                      
Ochoa#                  Vg/167       Fr/121                
Green                   Fr/116 Fr/120 Fr/130 Fr/120 Pr/120 Fr/120
Anderson                                 Vg/87   Av/87   Vg/87  
Gonzalez                           Av/100                
Navarro                 Av/140 Av/140 Av/140                
Anderson*          Fr/132                                
Velazquez           Vg/114 Fr/114 Vg/114 Fr/94   Av/114            
Woodward           Vg/136 Av/136 Vg/136 Av/91   Av/100       Av/100
Exposito       Fr                                      

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name           PO   EX   VG   AV   FR   PO       COMP 1       COMP 2       COMP 3
YoukilisKevin     1B   26%  41%  21%  10%  2%    HodgesGil     LeeDerrek     SalmonTim
BayJason       LF   38%  31%  17%  10%  3%    AllisonBob     KinerRalph     BondsBobby
OrtizDavid       DH   24%  37%  21%  13%  4%  NicholsonBill   EvansDwight     OglivieBen
PedroiaDustin     2B   60%  20%  12%  6%  1%      HuntRon     CashDave   HermanBilly
MartinezVictor     C   57%  31%  9%  4%  0%    BatteyEarl     DavisSpud   LollarSherm
DrewJ.D.        RF   22%  35%  20%  15%  8%    MurcerBobby     GilesBrian YastrzemskiCarl
EllsburyJacoby   CF   26%  31%  30%  11%  2%      LawRudy   FinleySteve   RiversMickey
LowellMike       3B   7%  23%  31%  27%  12%  RobinsonBrooks     BooneRay     BoyerKen
KotchmanCasey     1B   2%  8%  14%  43%  34%  GrimmCharlie     LeachRick   BurnhamGary
CarterChris     RF   3%  9%  14%  28%  45% CromartieWarren       HallMel     MayDerrick
BaldelliRocco     RF   4%  10%  13%  28%  44%  MontgomeryRay     GrieveTom     BowensSam
BaileyJeff       1B   2%  7%  12%  36%  42%    TolmanTim     MorganEd     ConineJeff
KottarasGeorge     C   1%  7%  20%  41%  31%  LaforestPete HattebergScott SchneiderBrian
LowrieJed       SS   1%  6%  22%  37%  33%    RiggsEric   StillwellKurt NicholsonKevin
GathrightJoey     CF   0%  0%  3%  20%  77%    TynerJason   ThompsonMilt   ManningRick
ChavezAngel     3B   0%  1%  3%  8%  89%      DuganJoe     KaskoEddie   RodriguezVic
van EveryJonathan CF   1%  2%  7%  20%  69%    MapesCliff RosenthalLarry   RobersonKevin
VaritekJason     C   2%  9%  17%  33%  39%    WhittERnie TebbettsBirdie     ReedJeff
ReddickJosh     CF   0%  0%  4%  19%  76%    BostonDaryl   LongTerrence     PieFelix
OchoaIvan       SS   1%  2%  11%  35%  51%  CabreraJolbert   WilsonBrandon   PatekFreddie
WagnerMark       C   0%  2%  7%  32%  59%    BatheBill MaldonadoCarlos   FordyceBrook
MaldonadoCarlos   C   0%  1%  4%  26%  68%      SwiftBob     TillmanBob   WebsterLenny
BatesAaron       1B   0%  0%  0%  1%  99%  CarpenterGlenn     DavisTommy     HarveyKen
DenkerTravis     2B   0%  0%  1%  9%  90% GarrisonWebster       FordHod     WotusRon
BrownDusty       C   0%  1%  3%  23%  73%    ParrishDave     EspinoJuan   LiddleSteven
GonzalezAlex     SS   1%  3%  9%  22%  65%    CastroJuan     SuderPete   MartinBilly
GreenNick       SS   0%  2%  9%  23%  66%    GagneGreg     AguayoLuis   AlfaroJesus
AndersonBrian     CF   0%  0%  1%  7%  92%    BufordDamon SandersAnthony   HollinsDamon
NavarroYamaico   SS   0%  0%  2%  12%  86%    MorseMike   SalazarOscar   MontanezLuis
VelazquezGil     SS   0%  1%  2%  9%  87%  GarciaCarlos   HalterShane   Lo DucaPaul
WoodwardChris     SS   0%  0%  3%  13%  84%  ClaytonRoyce   GerberWally   BelangerMark
AndersonLars     1B   0%  0%  0%  0%  100%    DuncanChris     LeachNick     NelsonBrad
ExpositoLuis     C   0%  0%  0%  6%  93%      DiazMike   CotaHumbertoRodriguezGuillermo

Name         .300 BA .375 OBP.500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB
YoukilisKevin       25%    62%    42%    22%    3%    0%    23%    0%
BayJason         16%    38%    42%    24%    3%    0%    51%    0%
OrtizDavid         8%    42%    52%    21%    2%    0%    39%    0%
PedroiaDustin       59%    46%    15%    7%    29%    0%    2%    1%
MartinezVictor     41%    43%    21%    10%    3%    0%    6%    0%
DrewJ.D.          14%    59%    21%    13%    0%    6%    2%    0%
EllsburyJacoby     33%    8%    0%    0%    0%    21%    0%    98%
LowellMike         23%    8%    12%    1%    0%    0%    2%    0%
KotchmanCasey       21%    16%    8%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CarterChris       25%    5%    6%    1%    1%    0%    1%    0%
BaldelliRocco       12%    6%    20%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BaileyJeff         10%    15%    5%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
KottarasGeorge       2%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
LowrieJed         3%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
GathrightJoey       14%    8%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    8%
ChavezAngel       10%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
van EveryJonathan     0%    1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
VaritekJason       0%    3%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ReddickJosh         1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    4%    0%    0%
OchoaIvan         6%    4%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
WagnerMark         3%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
MaldonadoCarlos     8%    5%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BatesAaron         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
DenkerTravis       1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BrownDusty         2%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
GonzalezAlex       4%    1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
GreenNick         2%    0%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
AndersonBrian       1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
NavarroYamaico       1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
VelazquezGil       4%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
WoodwardChris       5%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
AndersonLars       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ExpositoLuis       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Josh Beckett         30   3.96 15   9 32 32   206.2 202   91 22   44 194 119
Jon Lester*          26   4.00 13   8 33 33   200.1 200   89 19   64 175 118
Clay Buchholz         25   4.46 11   8 31 30   161.1 165   80 16   60 123 106
Daisuke Matsuzaka       29   4.62 10   8 25 25   136.1 139   70 16   61 121 103
Tim Wakefield         43   4.75 11 10 26 26   153.1 161   81 19   52   87 100
Michael Bowden         23   5.11   6   7 30 26   135.2 154   77 16   50   77   92
Paul Byrd           39   5.25   6   7 18 18   108.0 136   63 17   24   48   90
Junichi Tazawa         24   5.51 10 12 27 25   130.2 164   80 17   41   79   85
Devern Hansack         32   5.56   5   6 19 16   90.2 103   56 14   31   53   85
Adam Mills           25   5.63   8 11 27 27   139.0 183   87 17   36   58   84
Felix Doubront*        22   5.86   7 11 27 27   118.1 147   77 16   55   70   81
Charlie Zink         30   6.34   7 13 27 25   137.2 169   97 17   79   47   74
Kris Johnson*        25   6.44   7 12 27 27   123.0 163   88 15   62   58   74
Enrique Gonzalez       27   6.48   6 11 31 21   126.1 169   91 20   62   65   73

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Jon Papelbon         29   2.85   4   1 66   0   66.1   55   21   6   18   78 166
Takashi Saito         40   3.40   4   2 52   0   50.1   46   19   5   19   48 139
Billy Wagner*        38   3.57   1   1 37   0   35.1   31   14   4   12   38 136
Hideki Okajima*        34   3.58   4   2 65   0   60.1   56   24   7   20   54 130
Ramon Ramirez         28   4.11   5   3 68   0   65.2   63   30   6   29   54 115
Manny Delcarmen       28   4.13   3   2 70   0   69.2   67   32   6   31   59 113
Daniel Bard           25   4.24   3   2 56   0   68.0   59   32   7   31   77 111
Javier Lopez*        32   4.85   2   2 62   0   52.0   59   28   5   23   28   96
Fernando Cabrera       28   5.07   2   2 42   0   49.2   53   28   6   29   44   92
Dustin Richardson*      26   5.09   2   2 47   0   69.0   69   39   6   48   63   93
Randor Bierd         26   5.12   2   2 34   5   58.0   66   33   7   24   40   92
Hunter Jones*        26   5.24   2   3 31   0   46.1   53   27   5   20   29   91
Marcus McBeth         29   5.47   2   3 44   0   51.0   56   31   7   25   36   86
Billy Traber*        30   5.71   4   6 46   5   75.2   97   48 10   26   35   82
Richard Lentz         25   6.17   2   3 40   0   54.0   56   37   6   50   48   77
Jose Vaquedano         28   6.34   2   4 42   0   59.2   73   42   8   38   27   74

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player         PO     TOP   MID   BOT         COMP 1         COMP 2         COMP 3
PapelbonJonathan   RP     92%  7%  0%      GagneEric   FingersRollie       HenkeTom
SaitoTakashi     RP     73%  23%  3%    PaigeSatchel   AndersenLarry     WilhelmHoyt
WagnerBilly     RP     59%  34%  6%    RemlingerMike       McGrawTug     CookDennis
OkajimaHideki     RP     58%  37%  5%    LavelleGary     EmbreeAlan     RhodesArthur
BeckettJosh     SP     74%  25%  1%    SchillingCurt   VazquezJavier     HarangAaron
LesterJon       SP     72%  28%  1%    SwindellGreg     SabathiaC.C.      BurnsBritt
RamirezRamon     RP     35%  54%  11%      SelmaDick   CarrascoHector   WilliamsFrank
DelcarmenManny   RP     33%  53%  14%      SelmaDick   CarrascoHector   WilliamsFrank
BardDaniel       RP     30%  55%  15%      SotoMario   BedrosianSteve     JacksonMike
BuchholzClay     SP     44%  51%  5%    ArmstrongJack       MathisRon       WittMike
MatsuzakaDaisuke   SP     37%  54%  10%      DeLeonJose     SchmidtJason     GardnerMark
WakefieldTim     SP     33%  50%  17%    HershiserOrel     MorganMike       ForschKen
LopezJavier     RP     14%  42%  44%    MirabellaPaul     EarleyArnold SchoeneweisScott
RichardsonDustin   RP     6%  44%  50%    FuentesBrian   AlmanzaArmando     ReyesDennys
BowdenMichael     SP     11%  59%  30%    NagyCharles     JonesJimmy   BurdickStacey
BierdRandor     RP     7%  43%  50%    FrohwirthTodd PichardoHipolito     GardnerLee
CabreraFernando   RP     6%  40%  54%    VasquezJorge   WilliamsFrank       BestKarl
JonesHunter     RP     7%  36%  57%    HorsmanVince     MoloneyBill     McDillAllen
ByrdPaul       SP     17%  43%  40%      KremerRay   AlexanderDoyle     BunningJim
McBethMarcus     RP     3%  28%  69%      DorseyJim     HarvilleChad     BatemanJoe
TazawaJunichi     SP     3%  44%  52%    GermanoJustin   RamirezElizardo   SonnanstineAndy
HansackDevern     SP     5%  37%  58%    BaldwinJames   RodriguezNerio     JonesBobby
MillsAdam       SP     2%  36%  62%      ColemanJoe       WiseRick   TelghederDave
TraberBilly     RP     3%  24%  73%  OvermireStubby       KeyChris     HortonRicky
DoubrontFelix     SP     1%  24%  75%    BresterJason     BorrellDanny     GoslingMike
LentzRichard     RP     1%  10%  89%    SadlerBilly   PimentelRafael     KayeJustin
ZinkCharlie     SP     0%  9%  91%      FowlerDick   JeffersonJesse       BlackDon
VaquedanoJose     RP     1%  8%  91%    ArnoldJamie     McLearyMarty     BumsteadMike
JohnsonKristofer   SP     0%  7%  93%      WhislerWes     RichardJ.R.    ChapmanJake
GonzalezEnrique   SP     0%  6%  94%  CallawayMickey   FarnsworthJeff   JacksonSteven

Player         130 ERA+  100 ERA+  K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9

<1
PapelbonJonathan 92% 100% 98% 30% 75%
SaitoTakashi 66% 95% 63% 6% 78%
WagnerBilly 59% 90% 86% 16% 70%
OkajimaHideki 51% 91% 55% 8% 65%
BeckettJosh 31% 93% 66% 62% 65%
LesterJon 27% 93% 42% 5% 73%
RamirezRamon 29% 81% 23% 1% 70%
DelcarmenManny 27% 78% 34% 0% 84%
BardDaniel 24% 80% 95% 0% 69%
BuchholzClay 9% 73% 8% 0% 71%
WakefieldTim 9% 59% 0% 23% 47%
MatsuzakaDaisuke 8% 65% 45% 0% 47%
LopezJavier 14% 49% 1% 2% 79%
RichardsonDustin 4% 37% 54% 0% 84%
BowdenMichael 1% 29% 0% 1% 48%
BierdRandor 5% 36% 3% 1% 53%
CabreraFernando 6% 38% 43% 0% 61%
JonesHunter 5% 36% 1% 1% 61%
ByrdPaul 4% 31% 0% 58% 27%
McBethMarcus 2% 19% 5% 0% 39%
TazawaJunichi 0% 15% 0% 5% 36%
HansackDevern 0% 13% 0% 3% 18%
MillsAdam 0% 9% 0% 25% 38%
TraberBilly 2% 19% 0% 7% 38%
DoubrontFelix 0% 6% 0% 0% 31%
LentzRichard 0% 8% 43% 0% 57%
ZinkCharlie 0% 2% 0% 0% 44%
VaquedanoJose 0% 5% 0% 0% 41%
JohnsonKristofer 0% 1% 0% 0% 44%
GonzalezEnrique 0% 1% 0% 0% 13%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name           BA OBP SLG   G   AB     R     H   2B 3B   HR RBI   BB   SO SB CS OPS+
VaritekJason   .252 .339 .424 1709 5673   699   1427 327 17 206 809   708   1375 25 22   95
KotchmanCasey   .270 .338 .409 1235 4049   471   1093 243 11   99 561   382   433 17 14   95
LowellMike     .278 .339 .462 2086 7714   985   2143 495 13 300 1250   706   1075 39 21 108
PedroiaDustin   .292 .359 .426 2347 9380   1502   2742 586 25 207 936   932   777 225 63 104
YoukilisKevin   .277 .377 .466 1675 6096   989   1688 374 24 244 944   867   1411 50 38 118
BayJason       .263 .361 .486 1889 6886   1211   1810 354 38 369 1284 1011   1971 128 27 119
DrewJ.D.      .272 .383 .479 1988 6618   1210   1797 353 61 299 977 1163   1516 98 54 122
EllsburyJacoby   .284 .339 .388 1716 6888   1027   1957 268 80   95 587   526   905 541 117   89
OrtizDavid     .269 .368 .521 2177 7881   1290   2119 529 20 472 1515 1239   1728 15 13 127

Player         W   L   S   ERA     G   GS   IP     H   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
BeckettJosh     220   162   0 4.13   496   495 3133   3040   363   829   2929   112
ByrdPaul       123   111   0 4.52   385   296 1929   2154   283   454   1028   102
LesterJon       201   133   0 4.15   526   521 3136   3137   344   1096   2822   114
MatsuzakaDaisuk   109   96   0 4.64   272   272 1508   1517   190   710   1372   102
PapelbonJonatha   48   25   490 2.83   951     3 975   813   92   275   1130   155
WagnerBilly     45   41   443 2.57   917     0 960   683   91   324   1230   168
WakefieldTim     200   171   22 4.35   587   446 3079   2990   391   1172   2064   108

All figures in % based on projection playing time

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

 

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees




Dan Szymborski Posted: October 26, 2009 at 09:34 PM | 48 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. CraigK Posted: October 26, 2009 at 10:15 PM (#3366909)
In other words, Dustin Pedroia's going to the Hall on the first ballot.
   2. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: October 26, 2009 at 10:19 PM (#3366917)
i've got a question for people who've tracked junichi tazawa this season. he'll be a free agent in my sim league this offseason, and i'm considering putting out a 5 year, $6 million offer. basically, all i want to know is if he has enough upside to be worth anywhere near that amount of coin.

my salary cap will be in the area of 130 million, so the cash isn't gonna be a problem. his talent would be the only issue.
   3. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: October 26, 2009 at 10:43 PM (#3366936)
Lester's peripherals don't seem to match his ERA.
   4. danielj Posted: October 26, 2009 at 10:59 PM (#3366949)
So, Bay is basically the dangerous FA that will get too many $ and too many years this winter? IOW, a Met.
   5. Travolta19 Posted: October 26, 2009 at 11:01 PM (#3366951)
Re: Tazawa

I would say that if you could get him at that, it would be a steal. I don't see any reason he can't be at least a solid #4SP, and those fetch $4-5M/year in my league. That said, if your league is anything like mine (mirrors MLB, 30 teams, etc), there's not a chance you get him at that price.
   6. Tuque Posted: October 26, 2009 at 11:16 PM (#3366959)
I know of one free agent left fielder who would be a great fit for the Red Sox...

...

...

......Barry Bonds.
   7. Mister High Standards Posted: October 26, 2009 at 11:17 PM (#3366960)
Take the under on Lester. Bank on it.
   8. John DiFool2 Posted: October 26, 2009 at 11:22 PM (#3366964)
Jacoby Ellsbury* 26 .290 .344 .398


His career line is better than this across the board, yet the system expects him to regress, a year or so before his peak?

The top OPS+ numbers should be troubling-not that the Sox can't win with 6 guys being above 110 (they can), but you have to expect some dropoffs here and there (Law of Competitive Balance and all that), such that it is a bit more comforting to have a truly elite hitter (still in his prime) in there who can carry the team. 4 of them were above 130 last year, but with the top ones in the projection maxed out around 127, they'll need someone else to pick up the slack, but I'm not sure who (VMart as the mostly full-time C will help of course).

Lester has had a ~3.30 ERA the past two years, and the K rate in '09 was no fluke, so yeah.
   9. Nasty Nate Posted: October 26, 2009 at 11:25 PM (#3366965)
Take the under on Lester. Bank on it.


on ERA or ERA+ ?
   10. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: October 26, 2009 at 11:27 PM (#3366966)

I would say that if you could get him at that, it would be a steal. I don't see any reason he can't be at least a solid #4SP, and those fetch $4-5M/year in my league. That said, if your league is anything like mine (mirrors MLB, 30 teams, etc), there's not a chance you get him at that price.
i'm anticipating that noone (and that very well could be including myself considering the money i'll be locking myself into for a SS) will have any appreciable amount of cash. also, with guys like johan santana, josh beckett, aj burnett, roy halladay, jake peavy, derrick lowe, javier vazquez, john lackey, cliff lee, and carlos zambrano, i'm anticipating that a quick bid like that on day 1 will close the competition.


i've got a ton of cheap top end pitching right now, and i'm looking to put a hurt on everyone in my league by running out a lineup that's indestructable, with a rotation featuring edwin jackson, wandy rodriguez, shaun marcum, justin masterson, clayton richard, plus a guy like tazawa, and some veteran placeholders, most likely in the form of two of jarrod washburn, tim hudson, ryan dempster, nick blackburn, or one other name that i'm keeping to myself.
   11. Rays&Sox; Posted: October 26, 2009 at 11:27 PM (#3366967)
3.57, 136 ERA+... I guess Wagner never really did recover from TJ. I thought he'd be somewhere closer to last year's projection.
   12. John DiFool2 Posted: October 26, 2009 at 11:27 PM (#3366968)
And Jed: over on the rate stats, but he has a good chance to be under on the playing time (and if so the rate stats might drop too if he plays hurt).

Papi's career projections-he might be an interesting HoF candidate if he gets to those numbers, but I don't think he'll make it.
   13. Der-K thinks the Essex Green were a good band. Posted: October 26, 2009 at 11:39 PM (#3366974)
fyi, van every (those range ratings are way too low, but i say that every year) is a pirate. carter is a met.
   14. Walt Davis Posted: October 26, 2009 at 11:40 PM (#3366977)
The offense could use some work. Certainly Holliday fits better here than Bay ... but then he fits better everywhere than Bay. I suppose if there's a good corner OF coming on the market for 2011, you could live with a year of Bay in LF then move him to DH when Ortiz leaves.

Obviously SS is still an issue. Another big issue is whether to try to extend Martinez now (another possibility for the post-Ortiz DH) or wait. And it never ceases to amaze just how quickly starting pitching depth can disappear. It's still OK -- solid top 5, Bowden is a good #6, I suppose Bard could be moved into the rotation if need be. Will we see a repeat of them signing every injured starter on the market?
   15. Guapo Posted: October 26, 2009 at 11:44 PM (#3366980)
Interesting career projection for Ellsbury. I don't see him lasting that many games with a career 89 OPS+.

Edit: Is Ellsbury the new Dave Collins?
   16. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: October 26, 2009 at 11:53 PM (#3366984)
The Sox will need to replace Jason Bay's bat somehow.

And they still need to have a better plan to address the gaping chest wound at SS than "Lowrie will be OK this season, we're sure of it!"
   17. DKDC Posted: October 26, 2009 at 11:59 PM (#3366986)
Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen have eerily similar projections. Right down to the same three comps.
   18. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 27, 2009 at 12:41 AM (#3367010)
Interesting set of comps for Bay. Allison and Bonds both had three good years left in them, then crashed out of the majors quickly. Kiner's back went out on him after his age-31 season, curtailing his career. Says to me that I sure wouldn't offer Bay any more than three years.

-- MWE
   19. Shilzzz Posted: October 27, 2009 at 01:01 AM (#3367020)
ok, so a friend and i are GMs of a team that plays on a computer data based fantasy league with 12 teams which draft players merely from about 9 mlb teams, the red sox being one of them. the defense ratings look exactly the same as the ones that are emailed to the GMs at the beginning of each season. The data resembles the stuff being shown in these ZiPS projections makes me wonder a couple things i hope someone can answer. 1) Is there a program that uses this sort of projecting for private, offline fantasy leagues, and 2) are these projections based off each players career, park adjusted, and all that? Thanks
   20. Shilzzz Posted: October 27, 2009 at 01:48 AM (#3367057)
wow. awesome info. thanks!
   21. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: October 27, 2009 at 02:32 AM (#3367084)
Take the under on Lester. Bank on it.

I was going to say the exact opposite. I'm looking for Lester, at least ERA+-wise, to compete with Hernandez, Greinke and Halladay at the top of the league.
   22. Mister High Standards Posted: October 27, 2009 at 04:01 AM (#3367115)

I was going to say the exact opposite. I'm looking for Lester, at least ERA+-wise, to compete with Hernandez, Greinke and Halladay at the top of the league.



I agreed. His ERA is going to be well below 4.
   23. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: October 27, 2009 at 04:05 AM (#3367116)
Oh, I see.
   24. BarrettsHiddenBall Posted: October 27, 2009 at 05:17 AM (#3367145)
And they still need to have a better plan to address the gaping chest wound at SS than "Lowrie will be OK this season, we're sure of it!"

Can you live with a platoon? They've already added "Wow, Iglesias's glove is excellent; maybe he could be ready next year."
   25. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: October 27, 2009 at 05:43 AM (#3367151)
I'd probably do one for OOTP, too, but I don't own the game and I don't have any connections with the developers.

Markus Heinsohn is incredibly approachable.
   26. philly Posted: October 27, 2009 at 03:23 PM (#3367388)
Chris Carter was traded to the Mets as a PTBNL in the Wagner deal.
   27. trtaylor6886 Posted: October 27, 2009 at 04:13 PM (#3367488)
I am surprised Ellsbury rate as only average in center. I see his defensive numbers are nothing special on fangraphs too. In the limited time I have seen him play, he has looked like a gold glover.
   28. Famous Original Joe C Posted: October 27, 2009 at 04:36 PM (#3367529)
I am surprised Ellsbury rate as only average in center. I see his defensive numbers are nothing special on fangraphs too. In the limited time I have seen him play, he has looked like a gold glover.

He makes great plays, but watch the routes he takes sometimes. I don't think he's as bad as his defensive numbers this year, but he's also not a gold glover in CF, at least not right now. "Average" seems like the right ballpark for him.
   29. Eric M. Van Posted: October 27, 2009 at 05:02 PM (#3367577)
Ellsbury was dropped in the order last May 31 in order to work on using the count to his advantage -- at the time he had a higher career SA after falling behind 0-1 than he did after getting ahead 1-0, whereas the average player gains about .120, and he said the same deficit comparing 2-0 to 0-2 (gaining .107 vs. the average of c. 215). He wasn't restored to leadoff until the team felt he had made significant progress in improving his approach. He was hitting .299 / .332 / .370 when demoted and hit .303 / .366 / .438 afterward, and in this case the near doubling of IsoD was the result of hitting the ball harder and forcing pitchers to work him much more carefully, especially once they fell behind him (he had been last on the team in % of pitches outside the strike zone). That improvement was absolutely real and anything much less than an 800 OPS will be a disappointment. If he continues to work on looking for his pitch and driving the ball, he could be even better. I know that Ron Shandler believes that second half / first half splits have some predictive value -- has ZiPS looked into that?

Re his D, I believe the numbers are accurate. He's great going to his left and right, but has trouble on balls over his head and as a result played too deeply, which made his already bad-looking performance on balls hit in front of him (same problem getting a good read and jump as balls hit over his head) just brutal statistically. He also had serious problems early in the year on balls hit near the wall, but made a lot of progress on that during the season. He just needs more reps reading the ball off MLB bats, and there's every reason to think he can be a league average defender this year and a plus one, commensurate with his obvious tools, after that.
   30. John M. Perkins Posted: October 27, 2009 at 06:43 PM (#3367695)
Greg Gagne as comparable to two Red Sox. Jon Papelbon on the mound and Nick Green at the plate. I'd like to hear Green's agent asking for Gagne money.
   31. villageidiom Posted: October 27, 2009 at 08:00 PM (#3367778)
Greg Gagne as comparable to two Red Sox. Jon Papelbon on the mound and Nick Green at the plate. I'd like to hear Green's agent asking for Gagne money.
Unfortunately, Papelbon's comp is Eric Gagne.
   32. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 27, 2009 at 08:13 PM (#3367800)
He was hitting .299 / .332 / .370 when demoted and hit .303 / .366 / .438 afterward, and in this case the near doubling of IsoD was the result of hitting the ball harder and forcing pitchers to work him much more carefully, especially once they fell behind him (he had been last on the team in % of pitches outside the strike zone). That improvement was absolutely real and anything much less than an 800 OPS will be a disappointment. If he continues to work on looking for his pitch and driving the ball, he could be even better. I know that Ron Shandler believes that second half / first half splits have some predictive value -- has ZiPS looked into that?

I believe the standard stats line is that these splits have no added predictive value vs. the full year statistics.
   33. LB813 Posted: November 10, 2009 at 07:26 PM (#3384139)
I would love to see a projection for Hermida now that he is a RedSox.
   34. LB813 Posted: November 21, 2009 at 02:54 PM (#3393373)
The redsox also claimed Robert Manual from the Mariners. He had a pretty nice year last year, would like to see his projection too. He was actually a pretty good simmer in a league I am in last year, and wonder if I should try to trade for him.
   35. jar75 Posted: December 02, 2009 at 03:01 AM (#3400765)
Hey Dan, I'm just wondering if there's been any updates regarding Kalish's missing projection. Thanks.
   36. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: December 08, 2009 at 07:59 PM (#3406867)
A while back, I proposed an Ellsbury-Adam Dunn swap on BP. Joe Sheehan responded that if the Nats offered that deal, Theo would laugh them out of the room. But I still hold that a) Dunn has more value to the Sox as a DH option than Ellsbury does as a CF, and b) a good defensive OF would be a better option to put in CF than Ellsbury.

What do you think?
   37. LB813 Posted: December 29, 2009 at 02:21 PM (#3423732)
Hey Dan.
Any thoughts on Ryan Kalish, Robert Manual and Jeremy Hermida??
   38. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 29, 2009 at 02:34 PM (#3423737)
A while back, I proposed an Ellsbury-Adam Dunn swap on BP. Joe Sheehan responded that if the Nats offered that deal, Theo would laugh them out of the room. But I still hold that a) Dunn has more value to the Sox as a DH option than Ellsbury does as a CF, and b) a good defensive OF would be a better option to put in CF than Ellsbury.
One year of Adam Dunn at $10M for four years of Jacoby Ellsbury way under market value?
   39. Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: December 29, 2009 at 03:05 PM (#3423750)

Greg Gagne as comparable to two Red Sox. Jon Papelbon on the mound and Nick Green at the plate. I'd like to hear Green's agent asking for Gagne money.


Greg Gagne had nothing on Brian Christopher, Erik Watts, or that really skinny Von Erich.

Getting back on point, the Red Sox really do seem to prefer high contact hitters. Perhaps in absence of a bopper, they're going to try to get 'em on, get 'em over, and get 'em in?
   40. BobbyS Posted: January 28, 2010 at 08:33 PM (#3448881)
Didn't notice that - I better check that again just to be safe.


Was Ramon Ramirez checked again? Just looking at his Baseball Reference page...he has a ERA+ of 138, including 165 the last two seasons, with just a glitch in 2007(17 ip for the Rockies). 115 doesn't seem to do him much justice here. Is that a mistake, or are there reasons?
   41. Famous Original Joe C Posted: January 28, 2010 at 08:36 PM (#3448885)
Was Ramon Ramirez checked again? Just looking at his Baseball Reference page...he has a ERA+ of 138, including 165 the last two seasons, with just a glitch in 2007(17 ip for the Rockies). 115 doesn't seem to do him much justice here. Is that a mistake, or are there reasons?

His peripherals last year didn't support that ERA - I'm guessing that's the issue.
   42. BobbyS Posted: February 02, 2010 at 06:48 AM (#3452369)
His peripherals last year didn't support that ERA - I'm guessing that's the issue.


I get that, and I wasn't expecting to see another 165 up there, but just didn't think it'd be 50 points lower. But even looking at his career work, he has a 3.66 FIP and 138 ERA+ That's a quick decline for a 28/29 year old who's peripherals were still average or better last year..
   43. LB813 Posted: February 07, 2010 at 10:25 PM (#3455768)
Still would love to see a projecton for Jeremy Hermida. Also, any chance that Casey Kelly gets a projection in the final disk? Same with Jose Iglesias. I definitely thought he would be getting a projection at least.

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