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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, March 12, 2010

2010 ZiPS Projections, Build 2 for Excel 2003 and Diamond Mind 9

2010 ZiPS Projection Spreadsheet, Second Build

- All players are projected to their current or, in the case of unemployed players, their most recent teams.

- To install, create a new empty database in Diamond Mind 9.0 by selecting File—>Create New Empty Database.  Name the new database anything you want it to and then hit File—>Restore and select the ZIP file that you download.

Platoon splits for applicable are not programmed yet and are part of the final build along with depth charts.

The yearly ZiPS Projections are a large undertaking.  If you feel that the projections have given you value, Dan hopes you consider making a donation.  Donations are what keep the projections released free-of-charge every year and Dan is extremely grateful for all contributions, be they $1 or $1,000,000 (the latter hasn’t happened yet, but he’s still crossing his fingers!).  For those that want to “buy” the Diamond Mind disk, when it’s released, Dan’s suggested donation is $15. 

Dan would also like to shamelessly self-promote the Insider/ESPN Mag preview, which is currently slated to have a large dose of ZiPS.

2010 ZiPS Projections for Diamond Mind 9, Build 2

2010 ZiPS Projections for Excel 2003, Build 2

Below are the players that have newly received projections.  This is mostly of interest for league generalissimos, who need to be aware if any of these players are on reserve lists for teams.

Hisanori Takahashi
Chris Hayes
Zack Cozart
Evan Anundsen
Alex Liddi
Robinson Chirinos
Yohan Pino
Steven Wright
Tommy Mendoza
Paul Lo Duca
Casey Mulligan
Lee Gardner
Tommy Everidge
Andrew Brown
Anthony Rizzo
Brad Wilkerson
Casey Weathers
Lance Zawadzki
Pete Parise
Aroldis Chapman

Dan Szymborski Posted: March 12, 2010 at 11:08 PM | 36 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. LB813 Posted: March 12, 2010 at 11:40 PM (#3478301)
So Casey Kelly didnt make your cut?
   2. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 12, 2010 at 11:51 PM (#3478306)
2 months in the Sally League just isn't enough for a projection with any kind of dependability!

It would be pretty ugly, too - a .618 OPS in mid-A will end up looking sub-Bocockian.
   3. Mattbert Posted: March 13, 2010 at 12:20 AM (#3478314)
The line for that Szymborski guy looks pretty good. Don't think he'll get a look anywhere in spring training?
   4. bigboy1234 Posted: March 13, 2010 at 12:54 AM (#3478325)
Dan, I'm guessing he meant pitcher Casey Kelly who spent 45+ innings in each of low A and high A and had great control and limited hits.
   5. CalBear07 Posted: March 13, 2010 at 01:04 AM (#3478327)
Thanks for the great work Dan. Are there any more planned updates, or will this be the final one for this season?
   6. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 13, 2010 at 01:16 AM (#3478335)
Crap, I forgot the Red Sox converted him!

I'll do him for the Final Build.
   7. jfish26101 Posted: March 13, 2010 at 02:14 AM (#3478363)
Hrmm...the directions you gave for the migration seem to be gone since I can't find the post for the 1st build. I'll try the DMB site and/or help files but little worried I'll do the wrong thing and lose the database I built. Haha

Thanks again for all your hard work Dan!

Edit: That seemed pretty easy. Sort of stinks I have to redo the MPs but it still saves time not having to build the rosters. Thanks.
   8. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 13, 2010 at 02:19 AM (#3478366)
JF, I just copied and pasted most of that from the help file.
   9. jfish26101 Posted: March 13, 2010 at 02:51 AM (#3478372)
Yeah I got it done pretty easily. Thanks.
   10. jfish26101 Posted: March 13, 2010 at 02:58 AM (#3478376)
Seems you drastically altered your Paronto projection. :( Signed him in my league based solely on your earlier projection.
   11. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: March 13, 2010 at 03:25 AM (#3478380)
The earlier projection was that of Arredondo, as he mentioned in the v1 thread. Chad Paronto ... well ... has never been any good.
Thanks Dan. Pleasantly surprised w/ the Chirinos projection - if he's capable of that offensively and still has utility chops, he could help someone already.
Since you did Chapman, did you want to add Leslie Anderson for TB? He did sign a big league deal...
   12. bigboy1234 Posted: March 13, 2010 at 03:46 AM (#3478382)
Dan, any chance on the final Excel build you can put TBF for pitchers?
   13. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 13, 2010 at 03:48 AM (#3478383)
Chapman I did because it looks like I'm forced to. I think I still have time to wait on Anderson.
   14. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: March 13, 2010 at 04:06 AM (#3478389)
Fair enough - I'd be surprised if they gave him an opening day job.
   15. NMUWildcat027 Posted: March 13, 2010 at 04:54 AM (#3478400)

I had asked for you to project FDLS due to his previous projection.
   16. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 13, 2010 at 05:16 AM (#3478410)
Oops, forgot him - will make sure to do him for last one. I tend to get requests spread out over various locations and always forget some.
   17. Ken015 Posted: March 13, 2010 at 12:00 PM (#3478454)
Didn't see Hagadone in there. Did his injury make him unprojectable?
   18. Derb Posted: March 13, 2010 at 12:03 PM (#3478455)
Are my hopes and dreams of getting a Brad Wilkerson projection dead? He did just sign a contract!
   19. Derb Posted: March 13, 2010 at 12:13 PM (#3478456)
Are my hopes and dreams of getting a Brad Wilkerson projection dead? He did just sign a contract!

Never mind, he's on there! Thanks for everything, Dan!
   20. Ken015 Posted: March 13, 2010 at 04:00 PM (#3478508)
An interesting quirk exists in the DMB disk. Outfielder Gerardo Parra is the starting pitcher for one game each season I sim. I have run a bunch of season long sims, reloaded, changed the era (what is with the tweaked anyways, lots of offense) and when I send him down another position player starts. Oddly it's always in place of Aaron Cook in a five man rotation with injuries and limits turned off.
   21. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 13, 2010 at 04:15 PM (#3478519)
KF, Hagadone's really hard to pull off. Not because of the past TJ surgery (unless there's a new injury I'm forgetting), but simply because his minor league track record is very short and at very low levels. There's an implication that when I provide a projection, I can "stand behind it," so to speak and in cases like Hagadone, I really can't.

The exceptions are usually players that go from college to the majors extremely quickly (like Weeks or various relievers) or players from situations that are harder to translate (Cuba), that go right to teams. I can't avoid translating Weeks or Ramirez or Chapman, so I provide the projection with a lot disclaimers. But I can get away with waiting to do a Hagadone projection that I feel will have value - his position in the organization isn't such that he really forces my hand this year.

Even as a donationware product, I always need people to know they can have confidence that what I put out is as solid as I can make it.

As for Parra on DMB, I have absolutely no idea why it's the case! What league ERAs are you getting for the tweaks? I was using them to jerry-rig a 4.45/4.35ish ERA environment - are you getting higher numbers?
   22. Ken015 Posted: March 14, 2010 at 01:47 PM (#3478863)
I thought Hagadone had a projection last year but I could be wrong.

The Parra thing is even odder now, he always starts the game on June 18th and it was always Cook because I didn't change the rotation, the last few times he replaced a different guy. When I send him down another position player starts the game instead. Oh well a quirk I will figure out if I need to later.

I am getting ERA numbers a bit higher than that (4.55-4.75) and a bit of a spike in HR's. But I have only run 10 or so seasons. I will keep messing with it and let you know if it levels off.
   23. ben hayes Posted: March 14, 2010 at 01:55 PM (#3478865)
Dan thanks for the proj. builds . Its a great help for my kids and me who start DMB off every season. Can you give us instructions on how to purchase the FINAL BUILD DISK . Also has anyone heard when DMB VERSION 10 will be released? It sounds like it will be soon acording to the E-mail I received. Again thank you for your outstanding work.
   24. amisaid1 Posted: March 16, 2010 at 03:56 PM (#3479911)
Can we get a OF Charlie Blackmon (Colorado) projection? He's had a couple of years in the minors and may get a cup of coffee in the majors later this season.

I'm new to ZIPS this season but am fascinated by this. Thanks for all of your hard work!
   25. Rays&Sox; Posted: March 17, 2010 at 12:34 AM (#3480337)
Could we get a projection for Scott Atchison? After two years in Japan he's got an outside shot at breaking camp with the Sox.
   26. The_Ex Posted: March 18, 2010 at 02:51 PM (#3481464)
Has anyone done a standings prediction using Zips?

   27. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: March 18, 2010 at 03:04 PM (#3481473)
Request for Justin Germano (back from Japan, w/ Cleveland). Thanks!
   28. bigboy1234 Posted: March 18, 2010 at 09:27 PM (#3481827)
Three hitters that CHONE projects that you haven't that I'd be interested in:

Bourgeois, Jason
Mastroianni, Darin
Cook, David

Dan, any chance on the final spreadsheet we could get MLBAM ID and maybe TBF and PA for pitchers and hitters respectively? And any idea when you will release the final spreadsheet?

Thanks and appreciate all your work.
   29. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 18, 2010 at 09:31 PM (#3481830)
Has anyone done a standings prediction using Zips?


That's an upcoming feature in ESPN Insider/Magazine.
   30. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 18, 2010 at 09:32 PM (#3481834)
I can do the TBF/PA. MLBAM ID if I have time.

I'll get the current outstanding requests, but any more and I have to put an end on it unless it's something who's absolutely going to make the MLB roster.
   31. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: March 21, 2010 at 03:51 PM (#3483113)
Looking at Szymborski's pitching projection, I'm guessing that Dan's found some Jr High translations?
   32. ColonelTom Posted: March 26, 2010 at 04:49 AM (#3486312)
Nitpick - Kila Ka'aihue is a left-handed hitter. Not that Dayton Moore cares.
   33. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: March 26, 2010 at 08:03 PM (#3486830)
Can anyone tell me the defensive range ratings for JJ Hardy & Vlad Guerrero? Thanks.
   34. KingsofNY10 Posted: March 27, 2010 at 07:05 PM (#3487202)
hey dan,
big time fan of your work, really appreciate it. I got your 2009 projection disk last year and it wokred to some extent after i got an earlier build of it so i inputed the lineups and starting rotations myself. It was annoying though when i faced the computer and they didnt use the lineup i had set up for them.
i just got your second build for this year and everything work great, but again im having problems with the computer using the lineups that you correctly established. how can i fix this? Is this something that will happen automatically in your final build? please let me know asap. My father and I are big time fans of DMB and your work

thanks alot
   35. Vandy1Fan Posted: March 29, 2010 at 06:16 PM (#3488064)
If it is an AL team, there is a check box under the Set Lineup tab that says "Use DH Rule" or something to that effect. It needs to be checked.

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