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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, January 23, 2010

2010 ZiPS Projections - Chicago Cubs

If you only read the media coverage of the 2009 Cubs, you would think the team finished 62-100 and edged out the Pirate for last place.

Despite some of the problems, the Bradley issues being the most prominent, the team still finished 83-78 and almost all the key contributors return this season.  Harden is the biggest loss, but the rest of the rotation is strong, especially if Lilly returns on schedule and the team resists the temptation to use Shipwreck Silva or Jeff Samardzija in, well, games of baseball.

The team does have long-term offensive concerns, with most of the core in their 30s, but they still have enough time to develop a power bat or two (Vitters still has some serious issues to iron out and may not be one of them) and aren’t playing in the NL East.  The Cubs should seriously contend this year.

Offensive Projections

Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Aramis Ramirez       3b 32 .295 .368 .519 112 420 64 124 27 2 21 101 43 59 1 1   126
Derrek Lee           1b 34 .293 .372 .502 125 482 75 141 31 2 22 97 60 96 3 1   123
Marlon Byrd         cf 32 .291 .345 .463 133 488 65 142 32 5 14 72 34 86 7 4   106
Micah Hoffpauir*      1b 30 .277 .330 .490 98 296 42 82 19 1 14 66 23 53 1 0   108
Alfonso Soriano       lf 34 .268 .327 .494 115 474 72 127 28 2 25 73 39 108 8 2   108
Geovany Soto         c   27 .262 .341 .459 127 431 50 113 27 2 18 82 53 97 0 0   104
Kosuke Fukudome*      rf 33 .259 .362 .412 131 451 68 117 28 4 11 64 73 93 5 5   100
Reed Johnson         cf 33 .275 .344 .407 89 273 36 75 16 1 6 35 19 50 3 2   93
Mike Fontenot*        2b 30 .263 .330 .421 135 373 49 98 23 3 10 55 37 73 3 1   92
Jeff Baker           2b 29 .264 .325 .427 107 295 38 78 17 2 9 45 26 77 1 0   92
Ryan Theriot         ss 30 .287 .351 .373 143 550 78 158 24 4 5 54 52 68 18 6   88
Bobby Scales#        3b 32 .263 .340 .398 125 415 54 109 21 4 9 53 45 90 5 4   90
Sam Fuld*          cf 28 .276 .346 .382 131 442 68 122 23 6 4 45 45 53 12 5   88
Matt Craig#          1b 29 .257 .326 .391 111 373 42 96 21 1 9 51 36 83 1 0   85
John-Ford Griffin*    lf 30 .247 .311 .416 111 385 40 95 23 3 12 55 35 95 2 1   86
Bryan LaHair*        1b 27 .254 .311 .411 129 496 65 126 28 1 16 80 40 129 0 2   85
Josh Vitters         3b 20 .266 .298 .409 107 418 47 111 23 2 11 57 15 76 3 1   80
Steve Clevenger*      c   24 .276 .326 .359 102 351 33 97 19 2 2 45 26 44 3 2   77
Andres Blanco#        ss 26 .275 .321 .375 103 320 34 88 16 2 4 38 19 38 4 2   79
Brad Snyder*        rf 28 .240 .293 .413 98 346 37 83 18 3 12 46 25 106 5 1   80
Blake Lalli         1b 27 .268 .310 .371 100 340 31 91 20 0 5 46 20 58 0 1   75
Luis Rivas           2b 30 .258 .311 .369 80 260 30 67 13 2 4 28 19 35 3 2   75
Matt Spencer*        lf 24 .249 .294 .380 132 523 55 130 27 3 12 68 31 126 4 2   73
Starlin Castro       ss 20 .268 .309 .368 136 511 52 137 26 5 5 54 29 69 16 9   74
Tyler Colvin*        rf 24 .249 .287 .394 134 515 60 128 25 7 12 70 27 119 5 2   74
Koyie Hill#          c   31 .238 .299 .365 89 277 30 66 15 1 6 39 24 66 1 0   71
Darwin Barney         ss 24 .263 .306 .341 119 419 44 110 20 2 3 45 27 65 5 2   67
Matt Camp*          cf 26 .264 .309 .323 127 470 60 124 18 2 2 48 29 63 18 6   64
James Adduci*        cf 25 .252 .311 .329 135 511 60 129 21 3 4 51 43 114 17 8   66
Welington Castillo     c   23 .238 .281 .355 101 349 29 83 18 1 7 41 17 91 1 0   63
Chris Robinson       c   26 .256 .289 .333 87 297 26 76 15 1 2 36 14 62 3 1   60
Tony Thomas         2b 23 .226 .290 .335 129 483 56 109 25 2 8 45 38 139 9 9   61

Defensive Projections

Name           CThr 1b     2b     3b     ss     lf     cf     rf    
Ramirez                       Fr/99                      
Lee               Av/98                                  
Byrd                                   Av/62   Fr/123 Av/108
Hoffpauir*          Fr/107                 Fr/107       Fr/107
Soriano                                 Av/145 Fr/145      
Soto           Av   Av/84                                  
Fukudome*                                    Pr/97   Vg/97  
Johnson                                 Av/83   Av/83   Av/83  
Fontenot*                Av/93   Av/91   Fr/113                
Baker             Av/102 Av/102 Av/102       Fr/102       Fr/102
Scales#            Av/90   Pr/148 Fr/138 Pr/178 Av/113       Av/113
Fuld*                                  Vg/62   Av/62   Vg/62  
Craig#            Fr/113       Pr/123                      
Griffin*                                Fr/123       Fr/128
LaHair*            Av/89                   Av/44       Av/44  
Vitters                       Fr/147                      
Clevenger*      Fr   Fr/88                                  
Blanco#                Av/67       Av/140                
Snyder*                                Av/109 Pr/119 Av/109
Lalli         Vg   Fr/148                                
Oforthreevas             Pr/111       Pr/158                
Spencer*          Av/151                 Av/151       Av/151
Castro                             Av/163                
Colvin*                                Av/79   Av/79   Av/79  
Hill#          Av   Av/101                                
Barney                             Av/127                
Camp*                  Fr/148 Fr/148       Av/121 Av/121 Av/121
Adduci*                                Vg/130 Av/130 Vg/130
Castillo       Av                                      
Robinson       Fr                                      
Thomas                 Av/127                            

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name           PO   EX   VG   AV   FR   PO       COMP 1       COMP 2       COMP 3
RamirezAramis     3B   46%  37%  13%  4%  1%      MoneyDon     BellBuddy RobinsonBrooks
LeeDerrek       1B   21%  39%  22%  15%  4%      LongDale     HodgesGil   ThomasFrank
HoffpauirMicah   1B   5%  18%  22%  35%  19%  KryhoskiDick     PutnamPat   ThomasFrank
SorianoAlfonso   LF   12%  23%  21%  23%  20%    ChapmanSam     CarterJoe   SoltersMoose
SotoGeovany       C   25%  38%  21%  12%  3%  McGinnisRuss     PappasErik   PosadaJorge
FukudomeKosuke   RF   3%  10%  13%  23%  51%  TuckerMichael     CruzJose     CapraNick
JohnsonReed     CF   6%  11%  27%  34%  22%  BeniquezJuan   HockettOris     HoagMyril
BakerJeff       2B   13%  15%  20%  27%  25%  VelardeRandy     GreenNick   ScarsoneSteve
FontenotMike     2B   9%  12%  18%  29%  32%  ScutaroMarco   EasleyDamion     RiggsAdam
TheriotRyan     SS   9%  18%  33%  26%  13%  EcksteinDavid     RojekStanMaranvilleRabbit
FuldSam         CF   2%  8%  23%  36%  31%    MilnerEddie   DamonJohnny   PrietoChris
ScalesBobby     3B   2%  6%  13%  25%  54%    ShanksHowie     RandleLen   HockingDennis
TaguchiSo       RF   0%  1%  6%  17%  76%  CooneyJohnny     WanerPaul       RiceSam
CraigMatt       1B   0%  1%  3%  17%  78%      CostoTim PritchettChris   BarkerKevin
GriffinJohn-Ford   LF   0%  2%  5%  15%  77%    GuielJeff     HowittDann     StahlLarry
VittersJosh     3B   0%  2%  7%  20%  71%  RiveraGerman   GruberKelly InfanteKennedy
BlancoAndres     SS   1%  6%  22%  37%  34%  WilsonEnrique   IzturisCesarWhiteheadBurgess
SnyderBrad       RF   0%  2%  4%  12%  81%    FrobelDoug   AldridgeCory     WadeScott
ClevengerSteven   C   0%  4%  12%  36%  48%    WilsonCraig     PenaBrayan TorrealbaYorvit
LalliBlake       1B   0%  0%  1%  5%  94%    McGowanSean   EylwardMike CastellanoJohn
CastroStarlin     SS   0%  2%  11%  29%  58%  AriasJoaquin   InfanteOmar     AybarErick
RivasLuis       2B   2%  3%  6%  16%  73%    CairoMiguel   CritzHughie   SimonsMitch
ColvinTyler     RF   0%  0%  1%  3%  96%    SkurlaJohn   RigsbyRandy   GordonBrian
SpencerMatthew   LF   0%  1%  1%  3%  95%  HernandezAlex     BrownDee   CandelariaBen
HillKoyie       C   0%  3%  7%  24%  66%    KreuterChad   MoellerChad     DavisDoug
BarneyDarwin     SS   0%  1%  5%  18%  75%    ChavezPedro       FoliTim     CorreiaRod
CampMatt       CF   0%  0%  1%  7%  91%    OwensJerry     RuanWilkin     TynerJason
AdduciJames     CF   0%  0%  2%  9%  90%    RobertsDave   GathrightJoey     GoodwinTom
CastilloWelington   C   0%  0%  2%  12%  86%  LuzinskiRyan     DiazCarlos     KnorrRandy
RobinsonChris     C   0%  0%  1%  7%  92%    DempseyPat     KearneyBob   EusebioTony
BynumFreddie     SS   0%  0%  1%  5%  94%      NocePaul   KutcherRandy   MartinezPablo
ThomasTony       2B   0%  0%  0%  1%  98%  GraffaninoTony   PerezAntonio   MorrisseyAdam

Name         .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB
RamirezAramis       45%    42%    62%    20%    1%    0%    10%    0%
LeeDerrek         39%    45%    50%    17%    4%    0%    13%    0%
HoffpauirMicah     24%    8%    42%    4%    0%    0%    1%    0%
SorianoAlfonso     13%    5%    42%    6%    1%    0%    26%    0%
SotoGeovany       10%    12%    17%    4%    1%    0%    4%    0%
FukudomeKosuke       9%    31%    5%    2%    3%    3%    0%    0%
JohnsonReed       25%    18%    4%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BakerJeff         13%    6%    7%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
FontenotMike       11%    6%    5%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
TheriotRyan       30%    17%    0%    0%    1%    5%    0%    3%
FuldSam           18%    13%    0%    0%    0%    13%    0%    0%
ScalesBobby       10%    11%    2%    1%    0%    2%    0%    0%
TaguchiSo         22%    23%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CraigMatt         7%    4%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
GriffinJohn-Ford     3%    1%    3%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
VittersJosh       10%    0%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BlancoAndres       19%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
SnyderBrad         3%    0%    4%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
ClevengerSteven     20%    4%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
LalliBlake         14%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CastroStarlin       10%    1%    0%    0%    0%    6%    0%    0%
RivasLuis         10%    3%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ColvinTyler         2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    16%    0%    0%
SpencerMatthew       3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HillKoyie         3%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BarneyDarwin       8%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CampMatt           8%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    2%
AdduciJames         3%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    1%
CastilloWelington     1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
RobinsonChris       7%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BynumFreddie       2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ThomasTony         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Carlos Zambrano       29   3.67 13   8 31 31   193.2 178   79 17   79 157 126
Ryan Dempster         33   3.70 12   8 30 30   192.1 184   79 19   64 163 125
Ted Lilly*          34   3.70 13   9 30 30   185.0 171   76 25   48 155 122
Randy Wells           27   4.26 11 10 28 28   162.2 170   77 20   51 106 106
Tom Gorzelanny*        27   4.32 10 10 35 27   156.1 153   75 17   65 126 105
Andrew Cashner         23   4.67   3   4 25 25   94.1   95   49   9   56   63   97
Jay Jackson           22   4.82   7   9 25 25   123.1 122   66 17   62 104   94
Casey Fossum*        32   4.96   6   8 36 16   105.1 109   58 15   48   82   91
J.R. Mathes*          28   5.03   7 10 27 23   136.0 162   76 19   30   53   90
Esmailin Caridad       26   5.05   7 10 34 26   144.1 155   81 23   55   94   89
Carlos Silva         31   5.09   5   8 20 19   106.0 124   60 13   26   53   77
Casey Coleman         22   5.15   6   9 23 21   110.0 121   63 14   53   60   88
Christopher Carpenter   24   5.28   5   8 28 28   122.2 128   72 14   78   89   85
Marcos Mateo         26   5.29   3   5 36 17   98.2 106   58 13   53   62   85
Rafael Dolis         22   5.40   4   6 20 19   68.1   72   41   8   48   42   84
Jeff Samardzija       25   5.66   6 10 40 22   132.0 151   83 22   63   78   80
Mike Parisi           27   5.70   3   6 16 13   72.2   87   46 10   35   41   79
Mitchell Atkins       24   5.76   7 14 29 27   147.0 163   94 30   60   95   78

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Carlos Marmol         27   3.06   4   2 85   0   82.1   54   28   7   55 106 147
Angel Guzman         28   3.60   2   2 43   0   40.0   35   16   4   15   35 125
John Grabow*          31   3.84   3   2 74   0   70.1   61   30   8   35   62 118
Sean Marshall*        27   3.93   4   3 70   0   68.2   65   30   8   25   57 115
Jeff Stevens         26   3.95   4   3 48   0   66.0   58   29   7   33   65 114
Kevin Gregg           32   4.02   6   5 73   0   71.2   62   32   9   34   71 112
Jeff Gray           28   4.21   2   2 44   0   47.0   49   22   5   15   31 107
John Gaub*          25   4.47   2   2 47   0   58.1   52   29   7   38   62 101
B.J. Ryan*          34   4.50   2   2 34   0   32.0   30   16   4   17   28 100
Blake Parker         25   4.56   2   2 43   0   51.1   48   26   5   32   46   99
Justin Berg           26   4.87   3   4 59   0   64.2   69   35   6   37   35   93
Jeremy Papelbon*      27   4.96   4   6 37 10   94.1 104   52 12   39   57   91
Jeff Kennard         28   5.04   3   3 46   0   60.2   64   34   8   33   43   91
Chad Fox             39   5.14   0   0   8   0   7.0   7   4   1   3   5   88
Jayson Ruhlman*        25   5.43   3   5 56   0   68.0   75   41   8   42   45   83
David Patton         26   6.19   3   6 41   0   56.2   64   39 10   36   42   73

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player         PO     TOP   MID   BOT         COMP 1         COMP 2         COMP 3
MarmolCarlos     RP     84%  15%  1%      DurenRyne     LittellMark       PlunkEric
GuzmanAngel     RP     58%  34%  8%    NunezVladimir   LopezAquilino       BaezDanys
ZambranoCarlos   SP     86%  14%  0%    JenningsJason     TerrellWalt     HamiltonJoey
DempsterRyan     SP     83%  16%  0%    BoddickerMike       LearyTim   ArrojoRolando
LillyTed       SP     76%  23%  1%  BannisterFloyd       GuidryRon       KeyJimmy
GrabowJohn       RP     39%  51%  10%      RomeroJ.C.    CapillaDoug   BridgesMarshall
MarshallSean     RP     35%  54%  11%      TessmerJay   WilliamsonMark   FrohwirthTodd
StevensJeff     RP     33%  51%  16%    BorlandToby     FlorieBryce     BukvichRyan
GreggKevin       RP     31%  55%  15%    DeLuciaRich     HenryDwayne   GriffithsBrian
GrayJeff       RP     23%  49%  29%      TessmerJay     BuddieMike   MontalvoRafael
WellsRandy       SP     41%  52%  7%      LohseKyle       ClarkMark KlingenbeckScott
GorzelannyTom     SP     36%  57%  7%      YoungMatt       MasonMike       BellEric
GaubJohn       RP     18%  48%  34%  AlmanzaArmando     JohnsonTyler     ClarkeStan
RyanB.J.        RP     22%  38%  40%    CadaretGreg     TolarKevin   BridgesMarshall
ParkerBlake     RP     16%  51%  33%    BowlesBrian       GibsonBob     BarryKevin
CashnerAndrew     SP     24%  49%  27%    HaegerCharlie       BergRick     FanslerStan
JacksonJay       SP     17%  57%  26%      FisherPete     HarnischPete     KileDarryl
BergJustin       RP     8%  41%  51%      SmithDave   HertzlerBarry     MyersJimmy
LambertCasey     RP     6%  40%  54%      BikoThomas   SturtzeTanyon     AgostoJuan
FossumCasey     SP     4%  37%  59%      BoltonTom     BeltranRigo     BarnesBrian
PapelbonJeremy   RP     3%  38%  59%    MusselmanJeff     ClementsPat     SerafiniDan
MathesJ.R.      SP     12%  46%  41%    StobbsChuck       LeekRandy     HillmanEric
CaridadEsmailin   SP     8%  51%  41%    BittigerJeff KlingenbeckScott     WengertDon
SilvaCarlos     SP     14%  43%  43%      TowersJosh       BarrJim     AbbottGlenn
FoxChad         RP     34%  22%  44%      MesaJose   CarraraGiovanni     McMahonDon
ColemanCasey     SP     7%  45%  49%      KylesStan     DittlerJake   WestbrookJake
CarpenterChristopheSP     5%  45%  51%  HendricksonBen       RitzKevin   MitchellLarry
MateoMarcos     SP     1%  27%  72%    LeBlancRichie   RobertsWillis   SodowskyClint
DolisRafael     SP     8%  31%  61%      SilvaJesus       BergRick     HarbenAdam
RuhlmanJayson     RP     1%  25%  73%    TimberlakeDon     BowlesBrian     EyreWillie
SamardzijaJeff   SP     1%  25%  75%    GutierrezJim     WeiblClint   EdmondsonBrian
ParisiMike       SP     3%  24%  73%  CallawayMickey     SparksSteve   JacksonSteven
AtkinsMitch     SP     1%  18%  82%    LaffeyAaron       BayBear     HuffmanPhil
PattonDavid     RP     0%  6%  94%    ThompsonJohn     WardenJames       KolbDan

Player         130 ERA+  100 ERA+  K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9

<1
MarmolCarlos 74% 98% 98% 0% 84%
LillyTed 47% 97% 26% 32% 32%
GuzmanAngel 47% 88% 34% 7% 55%
ZambranoCarlos 40% 97% 20% 0% 87%
DempsterRyan 41% 97% 29% 2% 67%
LillyTed 33% 93% 27% 22% 31%
GrabowJohn 32% 83% 42% 0% 63%
MarshallSean 28% 81% 25% 3% 59%
StevensJeff 27% 80% 73% 0% 58%
GreggKevin 24% 81% 79% 0% 47%
GrayJeff 23% 63% 2% 12% 68%
WellsRandy 7% 68% 1% 4% 43%
GorzelannyTom 6% 64% 18% 0% 53%
GaubJohn 13% 59% 88% 0% 48%
RyanB.J. 22% 60% 43% 0% 66%
ParkerBlake 12% 52% 44% 0% 69%
CashnerAndrew 5% 43% 4% 0% 77%
JacksonJay 2% 39% 29% 0% 29%
BergJustin 6% 35% 0% 0% 70%
LambertCasey 3% 34% 0% 1% 51%
FossumCasey 2% 32% 14% 0% 31%
PapelbonJeremy 2% 30% 1% 0% 46%
MathesJ.R. 2% 27% 0% 55% 29%
CaridadEsmailin 1% 21% 0% 0% 12%
SilvaCarlos 3% 29% 1% 47% 46%
FoxChad 34% 56% 27% 42% 81%
ColemanCasey 1% 20% 0% 0% 38%
CarpenterChristop 0% 17% 4% 0% 53%
MateoMarcos 1% 16% 0% 0% 34%
DolisRafael 1% 17% 1% 0% 62%
RuhlmanJayson 1% 17% 1% 0% 53%
SamardzijaJeff 0% 5% 0% 0% 13%
ParisiMike 0% 8% 0% 0% 36%
AtkinsMitch 0% 3% 0% 0% 1%
PattonDavid 0% 4% 8% 0% 14%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name           BA OBP SLG   G   AB     R     H   2B 3B   HR RBI   BB   SO SB CS OPS+
SotoGeovany     .251 .333 .431 1410 4759   530   1194 275 19 182 865   594   1164   1   1   95
LeeDerrek     .283 .365 .494 2435 8898   1381   2516 556 40 415 1521 1118   1994 118 52 121
RamirezAramis   .284 .347 .494 2237 8384   1178   2380 497 30 402 1715   731   1274 22 19 113
TheriotRyan     .283 .349 .363 1384 5264   745   1490 214 37   44 485   510   697 164 64   85
SorianoAlfonso   .273 .324 .499 1817 7466   1160   2039 449 32 391 1057   504   1668 289 80 110

Player         W   L   S   ERA     G   GS   IP     H   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
DempsterRyan     160   149   87 4.30   653   429 2888   2871   321   1259   2431   103
GorzelannyTom   112   110   0 4.56   382   299 1741   1724   207   759   1382   98
LillyTed       183   145   0 4.14   468   443 2662   2525   390   864   2254   109
SilvaCarlos     90   102   2 4.80   398   255 1673   1996   210   350   757   92
ZambranoCarlos   198   147   0 3.86   517   496 3108   2821   291   1411   2590   116

All figures in % based on projection playing time

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

 

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

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Nationals

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Rangers

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Dan Szymborski Posted: January 23, 2010 at 04:21 PM | 64 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: January 23, 2010 at 04:32 PM (#3444863)
No Theriot in the offensive projections.
   2. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: January 23, 2010 at 04:36 PM (#3444864)
Is this the team, Cubs fans?

CF Byrd
RF Fukudome
1B Lee
3B Ramirez
LF Soriano
C Soto
2B Fontenot
SS Theriot

C Hill
1B Hoffpauir
CF Johnson
2B/3B Baker
SS Blanco
OF Ford-Griffin

SP Zambrano
SP Dempster
SP Lilly
SP Wells
SP Gorzelanny

CL Marmol
RP Guzman
RP Grabow
RP Marshall
RP Gregg
RP Stevens
   3. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 23, 2010 at 04:39 PM (#3444865)
Gregg is gone and his only saving grace this season was that Cubs fans hated Milton Bradley. Johnson and Ford-Griffin were both free agents as well (though I could've missed a quiet minor league signing of Griffin).

You have to think they're going to try to play Carlos Silva as well.
   4. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 23, 2010 at 05:07 PM (#3444879)
Not after reading this they won't
   5. Autobahn Posted: January 23, 2010 at 05:08 PM (#3444880)
Hoffpauir and Lee's 3rd top comp is Frank Thomas? The same Frank Thomas? Weird.
   6. Patriot87 Posted: January 23, 2010 at 05:52 PM (#3444900)
Good to see the pace of these picking up. Eager for the Cards being next. My only gripe on the Cubs is that Gorz seems extremely optimistic, but as long as he's not a mental case it could happen. I guess. I'll put $20 on the over on that one.
   7. Nineto Lezcano needs to get his shit together (CW) Posted: January 23, 2010 at 06:02 PM (#3444905)
You have to think they're going to try to play Carlos Silva as well.


I think Hendry will find a way to put him on the DL - some sort of phantom pitching injury like strained talent. It's what Hendry is good at.
   8. Good cripple hitter Posted: January 23, 2010 at 06:34 PM (#3444914)
Lilly's listed twice under ODDIBE. I wouldn't make much of it, but his comps stay the same and his percentages change, so something might be going on.

Also, So Taguchi has an ODDIBE, but he doesn't have a projection line. And Theriot's missing his defensive projection.

I didn't know that John-Ford was still playing. I remember hearing reports of his power in the minors, and I got to see one of his two MLB home runs. That being said, looking back on his minors numbers, I'm not surprised that he never amounted to anything.
   9. greenback calls it soccer Posted: January 23, 2010 at 06:59 PM (#3444919)
McGinnisRuss PappasErik PosadaJorge

That's an odd trio for Soto.
   10. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: January 23, 2010 at 06:59 PM (#3444920)
Wait, the Cubs signed So Taguchi?
   11. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: January 23, 2010 at 07:04 PM (#3444922)
So how is Luis Rivas the same age as John-Ford Griffin? I would have thought there were 7 years difference between the two in age.
   12. Accent Shallow Posted: January 23, 2010 at 07:06 PM (#3444923)
I assume those optimistic ODDIBE's for Chad Fox are based on him pitching 7 innings, rather than a normal reliever complement? It certainly has to be a ##### to project someone with such large gaps in his service time.
   13. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 23, 2010 at 07:55 PM (#3444939)
Hoffpauir and Lee's 3rd top comp is Frank Thomas? The same Frank Thomas? Weird.

Actually, Hoffpauir's comp is Frank Thomas the Lesser.

The extra Lilly is fixed - the better one was from when I messed up a macro and I forgot to delete it.
   14. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 23, 2010 at 08:00 PM (#3444945)
Russ McGinnis was a pretty bad defensive catcher. He was born about 15 years too late - he probably would have had a career today or at least gone to Japan. Posada wasn't quite Posada! yet.
   15. shattnering his Dominicano G Strings on that Mound Posted: January 23, 2010 at 09:02 PM (#3444985)
Given the BBWAA's odd treatment of 3Bmen, with this fairly impressive career projection, is it enough to get Aramis enshrined? If this was his final line, where would the HOM stand on the matter?
   16. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 23, 2010 at 09:13 PM (#3444991)
Given the BBWAA's odd treatment of 3Bmen, with this fairly impressive career projection, is it enough to get Aramis enshrined? If this was his final line, where would the HOM stand on the matter?


I don't see Aramis getting much HOF love. He'd need some kind of hook. That career line, OPS+ of 113 and 402 HRs, looks kind of like Graig Nettles - 390 HR, 110 OPS+, except that Nettles won 2 Gold Gloves and probably deserved 4-5 more. Nettles is a borderline HOMer (helped tremendously by the strength of his defense) who got no traction at all in HOF voting, despite having played in New York with two World Series rings.

Aramis, on the other hand, is regarded as an average fielder at best and probably below average. He'd need to do something like win both a regular-season and World Series MVP in the year that the Cubs finally win the World Series in addition to hitting 400 career HRs to have any chance of getting attention in Hall-of-Fame voting.
   17. Hack Wilson Posted: January 23, 2010 at 09:34 PM (#3445005)
Actually, Hoffpauir's comp is Frank Thomas the Lesser.

But still a fine hitter.
There was a recent thread about a player quiting baseball to become a priest. Frank did the opposite: Thomas studied for the priesthood in the Roman Catholic Church from 1941 through 1946. And no, he was too young to be avoiding the draft.
   18. tropicofcancer Posted: January 23, 2010 at 10:00 PM (#3445020)
K I'll give credit where it's due. Excellent job. I mean that.
   19. Ken015 Posted: January 23, 2010 at 10:59 PM (#3445057)
I was kind of expecting a few starts for Marshall because he had some last year and always seems to get some. Hopefully Lou will give him better shot at starting this coming season.
   20. Andere Richtingen Posted: January 23, 2010 at 11:48 PM (#3445073)
Wait, the Cubs signed So Taguchi?

That happened last year. I believe he is going back to Japan in 2010 though.
   21. drone1313 Posted: January 23, 2010 at 11:57 PM (#3445079)
Theriot's top comp is David Eckstein. How apropos.
   22. Patriot87 Posted: January 24, 2010 at 12:01 AM (#3445082)
Theriot's D is missing
   23. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: January 24, 2010 at 12:01 AM (#3445084)
The Soriano projection is kind of disappointing. He isn't even expected to be league average anymore is he?

I will take the under on Lilly and the over on Soto.
   24. Spahn Insane Posted: January 24, 2010 at 12:12 AM (#3445087)
I'll take the over on Soto and Kosuke, and the WAY under on Hoffpauir.

Don Geovany is headed for a huge bounceback year.
   25. Spahn Insane Posted: January 24, 2010 at 12:14 AM (#3445090)
I had no idea John-Ford Griffin was still alive, let alone (1) Cub property, and (2) an outfielder. Thought he was a pitcher.
   26. Spahn Insane Posted: January 24, 2010 at 12:16 AM (#3445092)
Theriot's D is missing

Cub fans have made this comment many times.
   27. Spahn Insane Posted: January 24, 2010 at 12:18 AM (#3445093)
That Gorzelanny projection looks pretty optimistic to me--I'd certainly take that out of him. I like all of those projections from the rotation.

Being a good fanboy, though, I'll take the over on Z.
   28. Spahn Insane Posted: January 24, 2010 at 12:20 AM (#3445094)
The Chad Fox projection makes me giggle. Not the numbers it generates, mind you, but the fact that it exists at all.
   29. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: January 24, 2010 at 01:20 AM (#3445115)
shouldnt his projection just be tommy john surgery?
   30. HOLLA(R) Posted: January 24, 2010 at 01:34 AM (#3445125)
Dan, Marlon Byrd's missing from The Oddsinator. Not that I actually care about Marlon Byrd, but take this more in the spirit of anal-retentiveness or OCD or something.
   31. Torn_cuff (Special Ability Extra) Posted: January 24, 2010 at 01:40 AM (#3445129)
I thought Chad Fox is what the ortho said happened to my shoulder; I can't be sure, but I still can't comb my hair (what's left of it) right handed.
   32. Walt Davis Posted: January 24, 2010 at 01:46 AM (#3445131)
And Theriot's missing his defensive projection.

No, his defense is just off the charts!

I'm glad to see ZiPS likes Wells so much ... though given how much ZiPS likes Gorzelanny I may have to switch over to the jfish camp. :-)

Interesting that you rate Blanco's defense as average -- most Cub fans raved about it.

CF Byrd
RF Fukudome
1B Lee
3B Ramirez
LF Soriano
C Soto
2B Fontenot
SS Theriot

C Hill
1B Hoffpauir
CF Johnson
2B/3B Baker
SS Blanco
OF Ford-Griffin


Nobody carries just 11 pitchers anymore (at least not for long). No Ford-Griffin. Somebody will take the Johnson role. Baker and Fontenot will presumably pretty much platoon with Baker playing the DeRosa role. I'd say there's still some small chance Hofpauir doesn't make the team but only if they (a) sign a decent-hitting LHB backup for Byrd (in place of Johnson) and then it will depend on who else is in camp.
   33. berselius Posted: January 24, 2010 at 01:48 AM (#3445132)
What's up with all this Ford-Griffin talk? I have never heard anyone talking about him contributing to the team next year except in this thread.
   34. berselius Posted: January 24, 2010 at 01:54 AM (#3445136)
CF Byrd
RF Fukudome
1B Lee
3B Ramirez
LF Soriano
C Soto
2B Fontenot
SS Theriot

C Hill
1B Hoffpauir
CF Johnson Fuld
2B/3B Baker
SS Blanco
OF Ford-Griffin Colvin

This is probably more what it looks like, though the above poster is right in that the Cubs will likely break camp with 12 pitchers, so no Tyler Colvin (thankfully)
   35. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 24, 2010 at 02:37 AM (#3445146)
Hey, I didn't bring Ford-Griffin up! He's just a player who gets a projection every year who happened to play in the Cub organization most recently.
   36. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 24, 2010 at 02:42 AM (#3445147)
The Chad Fox projection makes me giggle. Not the numbers it generates, mind you, but the fact that it exists at all.

I figure if poor Chad Fox can brave his 6 yearly arm surgeries to get onto the field for a dozen innings, the least I can do is give the guy a projection. I mean, he's had like 2 healthy years in the last 15. Even Steve Ontiveros might have sympathy.
   37. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 24, 2010 at 03:29 AM (#3445161)
I assume those optimistic ODDIBE's for Chad Fox are based on him pitching 7 innings, rather than a normal reliever complement? It certainly has to be a ##### to project someone with such large gaps in his service time.

Yeah, ODDIBE's based on 7 innings, so it's super-wacky. As a result, he's the only pitcher I've projected that has a reasonable shot at a 0 ERA.
   38. Guapo Posted: January 24, 2010 at 03:53 AM (#3445171)
John-Ford Griffin. John-Ford... Now, that's a name I've not heard in a long time. A long time.
   39. Walt Davis Posted: January 24, 2010 at 04:12 AM (#3445181)
Oh yeah, Sam Fuld, forgot about him.

On bench construction, the Cubs are in a very minor pickle. Or not even pickle, just sub-optimal. You want LH backup for Lee, Soriano and Byrd; RH backup (even platoon) for Fukudome and a platoon at 2B (or just Fontenot to the bench and Baker full-time). Alas the number of useful LH 1B/LF/CF is probably currently zero (no, I don't want Kotsay or Erstad ... and I assume Edmonds is done) ... but I can't believe the Cubs want Kosuke to be full-time. (OK, they want him to be full-time but I think they recognize he's not a good option against LHP.) If you put Baker in RF against LHP, that leaves Fontenot at 2B or a platoon with Blanco -- neither of those work offensively.

The Cubs as is have a reasonable amount of flexibility so it's not a major issue, but I'd rather see a RHB who can handle CF as a backup and platoon with Kosuke than Fuld. Johnson might be good enough but isn't exactly the bat you want in RF. I have no idea who else I would want though.
   40. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: January 24, 2010 at 05:07 AM (#3445204)
Is calling him "Ford-Griffin" an inside joke?
   41. berselius Posted: January 24, 2010 at 05:18 AM (#3445209)
I think people are overreacting a bit on the Fukudome vs LHP stuff. That's a very small sample size that he has in MLB (218 PAs), and he hit lefties just fine in Japan from what I remember hearing (the Googles are doing nothing right now). I wonder if the Cubs truly need a 'lefty-crusher' given how right-handed their starting lineup is anyway.
   42. RollingWave Posted: January 24, 2010 at 04:32 PM (#3445262)
Looking like a contender on paper adjust for them being the cubs = .......
   43. Travolta19 Posted: January 24, 2010 at 05:58 PM (#3445287)
Hey Dan, can we get a defensive rating for Theriot?
   44. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 24, 2010 at 06:01 PM (#3445291)
AV/94.
   45. RedRobot8 Posted: January 24, 2010 at 06:31 PM (#3445305)
I wonder if the Cubs truly need a 'lefty-crusher' given how right-handed their starting lineup is anyway.
You know, there's this Milton Bradley guy. He's not really a lefty-crusher, but he is a switch hitter and he only costs $30M over three years. Maybe Jim Hendry should look into that.
   46. zachtoma Posted: January 24, 2010 at 07:05 PM (#3445320)
Thomas studied for the priesthood in the Roman Catholic Church from 1941 through 1946. And no, he was too young to be avoiding the draft.


Didn't know that about Thomas, but Max Carey was another player who was studying for the priesthood in seminary school before turning to professional baseball.
   47. Walt Davis Posted: January 24, 2010 at 08:45 PM (#3445374)
So God only answers your prayers after you've flunked out of seminary? :-)

On Fuku vs. LHP -- the average OPS split for a LHB is 15% (if I remember my MGL correctly), his so far is 18%. Yes, a small sample size but his NPB platoon ratio would have to fantastic for me to regress his projected splits to substantially better than league average. His "good" year last year was largely a function of being platooned (8:1 PA platoon advantage). Ideally one of Fuld/Hoff would be replaced by a RHB. Not a huge deal -- any day's lineup almost always has a hole or two and Kosuke will bring his defense every day.
   48. 1k5v3L Posted: January 25, 2010 at 05:51 PM (#3445765)
Fuku vs. LHP
Is this even legal?
   49. Davo Dozier Posted: January 25, 2010 at 10:42 PM (#3446125)
BJ Ryan??? I need to follow the league more closely.
   50. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: January 25, 2010 at 11:16 PM (#3446163)
I started the JF Griffin stuff after eyeballing the depth chart. I should have put "old warm body OF" to be more accurate.
   51. bjhanke Posted: January 26, 2010 at 05:56 AM (#3446389)
I'm a Cardinal fan from St. Louis, but I don't just dismiss the Cubs. One thing I think I have noted, though, is that they always seem to lack a deep bench. I don't mean on the major league roster. I means the guys who play mostly in AAA but who get swapped in and out as short-term injuries and schedule oddities suggest. I think the Hoffpauir you now have filled one of those spots for the Cards a year or so ago. The Cubs never seem to be able to make much use of that strategy, which has become a fashionable solution to the problem of having to carry 12 or 13 pitchers. I don't know if your current manager is used to the tactic, but the problem dates to back before him. Anyway, I'm not trying to troll, but to ask whether you guys in Chicago are aware of this, and whether you think the criticism is valid or not. You certainly have enough front end to contend, given health, but the very back end seems weak to me, and has for years. - Brock Hanke
   52. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 26, 2010 at 03:09 PM (#3446478)
request: c/1f robinson chirinos. he edged out castillo for the top catching prospect in the cubs system, per ba, and plays all over the infield... no meaningful track record as a hitter in the high minors, though.
   53. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: January 26, 2010 at 03:27 PM (#3446496)
Brock,

I thought your post from last year on how the Cardinals/LaRussa effectively man a 35-man roster with ten of those guys stocked in AAA, with full anticipation that they'll make it up to the ML roster and contribute at some point during the season, was a pretty fascinating look at roster construction. And it's probably something a good amount of otherwise well-run teams are missing out on.
   54. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: January 27, 2010 at 12:38 AM (#3447223)
I agree, Brock. The Cubs have done a much better job of utilizing AAA when it comes to relievers and starters (they always seem to have extra ones of them laying around; oddly enough, we tend to overrate them and whine about them after they're dumped somewhere else and have an iota of success - see Aardsma and Wuertz last season).

Cubs signed Nady today, so he takes the "JF Griffin" role. I think that means the OF is set (and probably no Fuld, although he's the guy on the Iowa shuttle this year), and it makes Fukudome the backup CF. Not ideal. I'm underwhelmed by this roster, but don't have to squint too hard to see a bunch of lucky breaks turning this group into a contender. It's all completely downhill after this season though.
   55. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: January 27, 2010 at 08:14 AM (#3447451)
Brock, its a different Hoffpauir that your thinking of. though i think last year the did a prett good job with the AAA shuttle but really the problem the last few years has been the only players of use down there were pitchers
   56. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: January 27, 2010 at 08:23 AM (#3447453)
Tyler Colvin* rf 24 .249 .287 .394

Dan if you had done this earlier you might have prevented an auto theft. Nobody would willfully claim that projection.
   57.   Posted: January 27, 2010 at 08:45 AM (#3447456)
BJ Ryan??? I need to follow the league more closely.


Ryan asked (and got) the Cubs to release him back in August. Apparently he was disappointed that his velocity wasn't returning. Methinks he will sit at home and just collect on the 15M or whatever the #### the Jays still owe him.
   58. bjhanke Posted: January 30, 2010 at 06:00 AM (#3450442)
DFA says, "Brock, its a different Hoffpauir that your thinking of. though i think last year the did a prett good job with the AAA shuttle but really the problem the last few years has been the only players of use down there were pitchers"

There are TWO "Hoffpauirs"? Please tell me they're related. I think you have my analysis of the Cubs' problem absolutely correct. The problem isn't that the manager can't see that he has a roster hole and he needs to bring up whoever is doing best at the position in AAA. The problem is that the organization does not focus on stocking said AAA roster with enough AAAA players. I hadn't noticed that the AAA roster does have pitching, because I wasn't trying to analyze the Cubs in detail (not qualified, with the likes of Walt Davis in the house). Thanks for the info. And Good Luck to the Cubs. I hope you guys finish a nice solid second and get the Wild Card. (Well, what more can you ask from a Cards' fan?)
   59. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: January 31, 2010 at 03:21 AM (#3450923)
There are TWO "Hoffpauirs"? Please tell me they're related.

Nope, Micah and Jarrett aren't related, but each did have a sibling in pro baseball, Brad and Josh, respectively.
   60. bjhanke Posted: January 31, 2010 at 10:07 AM (#3451042)
There are FOUR Hoffpauirs??? And NO Hankes? I gotta find me a women's softball player to date. - Brock Hanke
   61. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: January 31, 2010 at 10:15 AM (#3451045)
I'm seein' double here! Eight Hoffpauirs!
   62. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 02, 2010 at 04:10 PM (#3452476)
What's the word on BJ Ryan? Is he still hurt?
   63. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: February 03, 2010 at 09:47 PM (#3453554)
Don't know. The Cubs granted him their release last August when he had no velocity left. Haven't heard anything about him since.
   64. McCoy Posted: August 31, 2010 at 03:59 AM (#3630493)
Looking like a contender on paper adjust for them being the cubs = .......

20 games under .500

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