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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, October 05, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Chicago White Sox

It’s hard not to classify the 2009 season as a disappointment as the White Sox really should have been able to compete with two very ordinary teams in the Tigers and Twins.  The Pale Hose received excellent pitching, looking even better than the ERA due to a merely adequate defense and a hitter-friendly environment, but the team was sabotaged by an extremely disappointing offense at essentially every position.  Podsednik returned and was actually relatively adequate for the first time in years, but when Scott of the Pod People is standing out as a performer, you know you have some issues that need to be addressed.

Not a single player in the starting lineup, despite some impressive names, really had an excellent season.  Or even a very good one for that matter.  Without anyone playing at a star level, the usual bland supporting cast just dragged the team down even farther, with the offense ending up with an unimpressive 90 OPS+ on the season.

I expected Alex Rios to be a good pickup for the Sox and as I noted at the time of the trade, I have a tendency to get every single Kenny Williams move wrong.  As such, Rios hit 199/299/301 after the waiver claim.  Warning to White Sox fans:  I also liked White Flag II, so watch Jim Thome sign DH in the AL and hit 78 home runs in 2010.

On the plus side, the entire rotation is returning and I agree with ZiPS that all 5 starters being average or better is a reasonable bet.  The offense does need help though and it’s a rather difficult offense to upgrade, given that it was simply mediocre all-around rather than having a couple obvious sore spots.  The team should still be competitive with a better Quentin season and no juggernaut competitors in the Central.

Offensive Projections

Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Paul Konerko         1b 34 .269 .349 .465 136 499 64 134 27 1 23 73 58 90 1 0   114
Carlos Quentin       lf 27 .261 .353 .459 119 418 67 109 24 1 19 69 42 72 4 1   114
Jermaine Dye         rf 36 .265 .334 .474 128 479 69 127 26 1 24 70 46 102 2 2   112
Gordon Beckham       3b 23 .267 .334 .450 152 580 80 155 42 2 20 84 52 101 10 4   106
Alexis Rios         rf 29 .275 .325 .442 146 579 75 159 35 4 18 70 42 100 22 6   102
Alexei Ramirez       ss 28 .288 .333 .427 141 517 65 149 23 2 15 68 36 66 14 7   101
A.J. Pierzynski*      c   33 .285 .322 .417 129 480 53 137 25 1 12 47 22 62 1 1   95
Chris Getz*          2b 26 .277 .334 .367 113 412 53 114 19 3 4 35 33 54 18 4   87
Scott Podsednik*      lf 34 .279 .336 .384 104 365 51 102 20 3 4 29 29 56 20 8   91
Michael Restovich     lf 31 .247 .308 .417 121 441 55 109 23 2 16 52 37 122 1 1   91
Mark Kotsay*        1b 34 .272 .321 .376 84 290 30 79 16 1 4 35 22 33 3 2   85
Ramon Castro         c   34 .243 .305 .408 54 152 16 37 7 0 6 24 13 38 0 0   88
Jayson Nix           2b 27 .249 .315 .386 103 342 51 85 18 1 9 42 30 75 13 4   85
Josh Fields         3b 27 .237 .311 .394 117 409 49 97 18 2 14 50 43 128 7 5   86
Tyler Flowers         c   24 .234 .319 .369 119 428 53 100 23 1 11 54 49 127 3 3   83
Keith Ginter         2b 34 .246 .319 .349 101 370 35 91 18 1 6 37 34 72 2 2   78
Andy Cannizaro       ss 31 .260 .321 .351 77 262 28 68 13 1 3 23 20 36 1 1   79
Wilson Betemit#      3b 28 .232 .290 .391 112 302 34 70 18 0 10 41 25 88 1 0   79
Stefan Gartrell       rf 26 .234 .293 .383 116 423 52 99 20 2 13 50 32 125 5 2   78
DeWayne Wise*        cf 32 .243 .292 .398 89 226 31 55 11 3 6 19 13 50 10 5   81
John Shelby         cf 24 .241 .287 .372 121 481 58 116 27 3 10 49 29 107 22 8   74
Dayan Viciedo         3b 21 .248 .281 .360 138 544 68 135 23 1 12 70 22 115 4 2   69
Cole Armstrong*      c   26 .248 .283 .358 85 307 26 76 16 0 6 31 14 69 0 0   69
Brent Lillibridge     ss 26 .232 .295 .330 120 427 57 99 18 3 6 39 34 105 24 6   66
Eider Torres#        ss 27 .259 .300 .320 108 425 50 110 16 2 2 36 24 67 18 9   65
Justin Knoedler       c   29 .228 .271 .360 55 189 27 43 11 1 4 24 11 48 2 0   66
Jordan Danks*        cf 23 .215 .287 .321 109 446 62 96 19 2 8 33 43 137 8 4   62
Justin Fuller*        ss 26 .234 .301 .341 63 205 30 48 9 2 3 16 17 49 3 7   71

Defensive Projections

Name           CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Konerko         Av   Av            
Quentin                   Fr   Fr
Dye                           Pr
Beckham               Av Av      
Rios                       Av Vg
Ramirez             Av   Av      
Pierzynski*      Fr                
Getz*              Av   Pr Av    
Podsednik*                  Av Fr  
Restovich                   Av   Av
Kotsay*            Av       Av Pr Av
Castro         Fr                
Nix                 Vg Av Av Av   Av
Fields                 Fr   Fr    
Flowers         Fr   Av            
Ginter             Av Fr Av        
Cannizaro             Fr Fr Pr      
Betemit#          Av Fr Av Pr      
Gartrell                   Av   Av
Wise*                    Vg Vg Vg
Shelby                     Av Av Av
Viciedo           Av   Fr        
Armstrong*      Fr                
Lillibridge           Av   Av Av    
Torres#              Av   Fr      
Knoedler       Av                
Danks*                    Av Av  
Fuller*              Av Av Av      

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name             PO   EX   VG   AV   FR   PO         COMP 1         COMP 2         COMP 3
KonerkoPaul         1B   8%  26%  26%  30%  9%    DowningBrian   ThorntonAndre       BaylorDon
QuentinCarlos       LF   13%  28%  26%  22%  11%      MenchKevin       LeeCarlos   MartinezCarmelo
DyeJermaine         RF   13%  23%  21%  24%  19%    WinfieldDave     HickmanJim     ParkerDave
BeckhamGordon       3B   13%  22%  30%  25%  10%    ColesDarnell       LemonChet EncarnacionEdwin
RiosAlexis         RF   10%  21%  19%  23%  27%      CowensAl       FoxPete   EncarnacionJuan
RamirezAlexei       SS   30%  26%  26%  13%  6%      AlleyGene     TejadaMiguel     LoganJohnny
PierzynskiA.J.      C   8%  27%  31%  26%  8%  FletcherDarrin     HarperBrian     Lo DucaPaul
PodsednikScott       LF   2%  8%  10%  19%  59%      TovarCesar     BrutonBill     GladdenDan
GetzChristopher     2B   6%  13%  23%  34%  25%      RemyJerry     WoodardMike     KennedyAdam
RestovichMike       LF   1%  6%  7%  16%  70%    SpencerShane     CordovaMarty       RudiJoe
NixJayson         2B   6%  9%  18%  32%  35%    MoutonJames     MichaelsCass       EarlScott
CastroRamon         C   7%  18%  33%  34%  8%    SnyderFrank   SantiagoBenito   AinsmithEddie
KotsayMark         1B   0%  1%  3%  15%  81%    BiittnerLarry     AdamsGlenn   KluszewskiTed
FieldsJosh         3B   2%  3%  8%  27%  60%    McnallySean     PerezEduardo     BrubakerBill
WiseDewayne         CF   1%  2%  8%  29%  60%      LittleMark     MorenoOmar     VarshoGary
FlowersTyler         C   0%  7%  23%  44%  26%  EtchebarrenAndy     GibbonsJohn     HuberJustin
CannizaroAndy       SS   1%  3%  12%  36%  48%      GomezChris     AmaroRuben   BlanksLarvell
BetemitWilson       3B   0%  0%  2%  16%  82%      TatumJim     BlowersMike     PresleyJim
GartrellMaurice     RF   0%  0%  1%  4%  95%    KrauseScott   SherrodJustin     EvansTerry
ShelbyJohn         CF   0%  0%  4%  24%  71%      MatosLuis     LittleMark     BufordDamon
GinterKeith         2B   0%  2%  6%  19%  72%    TrilloManny   WarstlerRabbit   O’RourkeFrank
LillibridgeBrent     SS   1%  2%  10%  33%  55%    FischlinMike   FurmaniakJ.J.      LunaHector
ArmstrongCole       C   0%  0%  2%  22%  76%    HoustonTyler     GilGeronimo   LaFrancoisRoger
ViciedoDayan       3B   0%  0%  0%  3%  96%    MoronkoJeff     CordidoJulio       BellRicky
KnoedlerJustin       C   0%  1%  4%  24%  71%      HooverPaul   HemsleyRollie       RoofPhil
TorresEider         SS   0%  0%  2%  14%  83%      OlmedoRay   GriffinAlfredo     IzturisCesar
DanksJordan         CF   0%  0%  0%  4%  96%      PaulXavier   BernadinaRoger   BudzinskiMark
FullerJustin       SS   0%  1%  1%  2%  97%      JohnsonTim     SaylorJamie   PerezSantiago

Name           .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB
KonerkoPaul         11%    15%    18%    6%    1%    0%    14%    0%
QuentinCarlos       9%    19%    15%    7%    0%    0%    4%    0%
DyeJermaine         9%    5%    26%    7%    1%    0%    18%    0%
BeckhamGordon       10%    7%    12%    5%    36%    0%    6%    0%
RiosAlexis         17%    4%    11%    2%    13%    6%    5%    14%
RamirezAlexei       36%    8%    9%    2%    0%    0%    3%    0%
PierzynskiA.J.      28%    4%    3%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
PodsednikScott       26%    12%    1%    0%    0%    1%    0%    9%
GetzChristopher     19%    7%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    2%
RestovichMike       3%    1%    5%    0%    0%    0%    2%    0%
NixJayson           3%    2%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CastroRamon         8%    5%    10%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
KotsayMark         19%    5%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
FieldsJosh         1%    1%    3%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%
WiseDewayne         4%    0%    2%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
FlowersTyler         0%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CannizaroAndy       10%    4%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BetemitWilson       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
GartrellMaurice       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ShelbyJohn         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    9%
GinterKeith         3%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
LillibridgeBrent     0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    18%
ArmstrongCole       2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ViciedoDayan         1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
KnoedlerJustin       2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
TorresEider         5%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    2%
DanksJordan         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
FullerJustin         3%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
MauerJoe           90%    93%    64%    60%    5%    0%    11%    0%

Extrapolated Career Statistics
Name           BA OBP SLG   G   AB     R     H   2B 3B   HR RBI   BB   SO SB CS OPS+
KonerkoPaul     .271 .347 .476 2374 8588   1184   2329 437 13 431 1374   935   1447 10   2 112
DyeJermaine     .269 .334 .479 2291 8466   1254   2280 466 30 418 1331   780   1739 52 35 109
QuentinCarlos   .250 .343 .444 1442 4989   772   1246 265 14 225 799   507   878 42 17 106
PierzynskiA.J.  .282 .321 .415 1979 7139   826   2014 392 22 172 781   319   920 16 22   91
RamirezAlexei   .275 .321 .410 1480 5405   663   1488 214 18 160 691   368   729 125 72   92

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Jake Peavy           29   3.99 12   8 26 26   155.2 143   69 18   59 154 115
John Danks*          25   4.16 13 11 34 34   201.0 201   93 24   72 148 110
Daniel Hudson         23   4.31 11 10 32 28   148.1 150   71 14   57 115 107
Mark Buehrle*        31   4.36 12 12 31 31   200.1 230   96 29   53 106 105
Gavin Floyd           27   4.78 11 12 34 33   201.1 208 107 30   70 142   96
Carlos Torres         27   5.18   6   8 37 17   121.2 132   70 13   70   85   89
Freddy Garcia         34   5.34   3   4 11 11   55.2   63   33   9   19   36   86
Wes Whisler*          27   6.18   7 14 28 26   141.1 186   97 21   66   49   74
Brandon Hynick         25   6.24   7 13 28 28   157.1 194 109 32   52   66   74
Lucas Harrell         25   6.24   4   8 21 21   102.1 122   71 14   71   48   73
John Ely             24   6.48   6 12 27 27   134.2 161   97 26   69   79   71
John van Benschoten     30   6.63   4 10 26 18   95.0 112   70 16   57   57   69
Brian Omogrosso       26   6.94   3   7 24 11   71.1   82   55 12   56   42   67
Jeffrey Marquez       25   7.42   4 12 17 17   83.2 113   69 20   42   33   62

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Matt Thornton*        33   3.82   5   3 69   0   63.2   57   27   7   23   66 120
Octavio Dotel         36   4.12   3   3 57   0   54.2   49   25   8   28   63 110
Bobby Jenks           29   4.20   4   3 61   0   60.0   59   28   7   19   47 110
D.J. Carrasco         33   4.21   3   2 46   1   83.1   87   39   8   30   53 107
Tony Pena           28   4.61   5   5 80   0   82.0   90   42 11   29   55   99
Scott Linebrink       33   4.69   4   4 58   0   55.2   60   29   9   22   46   97
Derek Rodriguez       27   5.48   2   4 48   1   65.2   70   40   9   37   44   84
Randy Williams*        34   5.52   1   2 48   0   44.0   48   27   8   23   35   82
Jhonny Nunez         24   5.55   2   3 51   0   73.0   79   45 12   39   57   83
Jon Link             26   5.63   2   3 55   0   54.1   58   34   9   34   44   82
Fernando Hernandez     25   5.65   3   5 57   0   65.1   73   41   8   38   43   82
Kelvin Jimenez         29   5.86   3   5 54   2   78.1   96   51 12   31   38   79
Clevelan Santeliz       23   5.92   2   3 42   0   51.2   56   34   7   46   36   79

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player           PO   TOP   MID   BOT         COMP 1         COMP 2         COMP 3
ThorntonMatt       RP   47%  44%  9%    RhodesArthur     MyersRandy   RinconRicardo
PeavyJake         SP   67%  32%  1%    AppierKevin     SmoltzJohn     ColonBartolo
DanksJohn         SP   52%  46%  3%      WolfRandy     PettitteAndy     AverySteve
JenksBobby         RP   28%  55%  17%  AlmanzarCarlos       BeckRod     SchmidtDave
DotelOctavio       RP   28%  52%  20%      PlunkEric       GordonTom     SeanezRudy
CarrascoD.J.        RP   21%  60%  19%    TavarezJulian     AdamsTerry       TamJeff
HudsonDaniel       SP   50%  45%  4%      DavisStorm     MadduxGreg IsringhausenJason
BuehrleMark         SP   29%  58%  13%    McGregorScott     SwindellGreg     JonesRandy
PenaTony           RP   8%  56%  36%      LewisColby     ReitsmaChris     BuddieMike
LinebrinkScott       RP   11%  50%  39%  St. ClaireRandy   HernandezXavier     LopezAurelio
FloydGavin         SP   16%  62%  22%    GarciaFreddy   BoddickerMike     PineiroJoel
TorresCarlos       SP   1%  33%  66%    LaxtonBrett     LomonKevin     ReichertDan
GarciaFreddy       SP   9%  39%  52%  SaberhagenBret   RasmussenEric     MilackiBob
RodriguezDerek       RP   1%  24%  75%    BorowskiJoe   PisciottaMarc     MarquezJeff
NunezJhonny         RP   1%  22%  77%      MotaDanny       BussaTodd     SessionsDoug
WilliamsRandy       RP   2%  20%  77%      TolarKevin     SearageRay     GibsonPaul
LinkJon           RP   2%  22%  75%    HartleyMike     ColomeJesus     BlasucciTony
HernandezFernando     RP   1%  21%  79%    SchneiderPaul   ChavezAnthony       MillsAlan
SantelizClevelan     RP   1%  14%  85%      NealBlaine       MeekEvan       WinnJim
JimenezKelvin       RP   0%  12%  87%      CoreyBryan     BradleyBert   WinchesterScott
WhislerWes         SP   0%  8%  92%      MutisJeff   AndersonJimmy     RundlesRich
HynickBrandon       SP   0%  8%  92%    MeadowsBrian     WegmanBill     TottenHeath
HarrellLucas       SP   0%  9%  90%      BuddieMike     PumphreyKen   CocanowerJaime
ElyJohn           SP   0%  5%  95%    RandallScott     StewartPaul     CressendJack
van BenschotenJohn   SP   0%  5%  95%      GlynnRyan     StullEverett       JungeEric
OmogrossoBrian       SP   0%  2%  98%    BockusRandy     MustadEric     ShimpTommy
MarquezJeff         SP   0%  1%  99%  KlingenbeckScott   CrawfordSteve   KelleyAnthony

Player           130 ERA+  100 ERA+    K/9 >8   BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1
ThorntonMatt 40% 85% 88% 3% 64%
PeavyJake 24% 89% 80% 1% 49%
DanksJohn 14% 81% 5% 1% 40%
JenksBobby 22% 72% 15% 10% 56%
DotelOctavio 21% 74% 97% 0% 34%
CarrascoD.J. 16% 72% 0% 3% 76%
HudsonDaniel 13% 77% 10% 0% 81%
BuehrleMark 8% 53% 0% 22% 21%
PenaTony 6% 53% 1% 2% 40%
LinebrinkScott 11% 47% 24% 1% 19%
FloydGavin 2% 41% 2% 1% 14%
TorresCarlos 1% 22% 4% 0% 64%
GarciaFreddy 2% 21% 1% 6% 23%
RodriguezDerek 1% 16% 2% 0% 35%
NunezJhonny 1% 15% 12% 0% 21%
WilliamsRandy 2% 17% 19% 0% 22%
LinkJon 1% 19% 18% 0% 25%
HernandezFernando 1% 13% 1% 0% 43%
SantelizClevelan 1% 11% 4% 0% 51%
JimenezKelvin 0% 8% 0% 1% 22%
WhislerWes 0% 1% 0% 0% 23%
HynickBrandon 0% 1% 0% 1% 2%
HarrellLucas 0% 2% 0% 0% 30%
ElyJohn 0% 1% 0% 0% 3%
van BenschotenJohn 0% 1% 0% 0% 19%
OmogrossoBrian 0% 1% 0% 0% 16%
MarquezJeff 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player         W   L   S   ERA     G   GS   IP     H   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
BuehrleMark     212   180   0 4.18   540   515 3416   3724   437   846   1921   113
GarciaFreddy     125   88   0 4.17   294   292 1868   1835   226   602   1362   111
PeavyJake       192   155   0 3.85   456   457 2761   2501   320   1019   2752   115

All figures in % based on projection playing time.


Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 05, 2009 at 06:23 PM | 41 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Juan V Posted: October 05, 2009 at 07:05 PM (#3340857)
At this rate, all teams will be projected before the end of the World Series!
   2. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: October 05, 2009 at 07:12 PM (#3340861)
Thanks for the effort, Dan.

It's interesting that, even though ZiPS doesn't hate the White Sox starters, it predicts them all to regress (and Floyd and Peavy to regress considerably).

It's also worth noting that Alex Rios seemed to break out of his horrible slump in the last two weeks of the season. I'll make a bold prediction and say that he won't hurt the White Sox in 2010.
   3. Cris E Posted: October 05, 2009 at 07:49 PM (#3340902)
...he won't hurt the White Sox in 2010.

Is that what $10m is supposed to buy these days? Wow, is the bar really set that low for Rios?

I'm not trying to be harsh or even guess what he'll do next year. Mostly I stand in awe of Kenny Williams. That guy has balls as big as church bells to make some of the moves he has. Rios looked shaky in TOR, and the rumors that came out after the deal had to be available to Kenny beforehand, and yet he throws down for the guy at retail.

I used to laugh when he did some of the goofy moves, but over the years his outcomes have outpaced my expectations so I've stopped snarking. (Peavy looks like he's recovering as expected, but that Rios contract, man, church bells.)
   4. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 05, 2009 at 09:11 PM (#3341006)
Long-term, should they leave Beckham at 3B, or move him to 2B/SS and try and pick up another corner bat?
   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 05, 2009 at 09:20 PM (#3341014)
Long-term, should they leave Beckham at 3B, or move him to 2B/SS and try and pick up another corner bat?

I think you always push a guy as far "up" the defensive spectrum you can without exposing him, unless he gets injured at the tougher positions.
   6. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: October 05, 2009 at 09:56 PM (#3341042)
A couple of quick thoughts...

- ZiPS still doesn't like Floyd very much. It apparently doesn't buy the jump in his K-rate (7.6/9 this year versus a career average of ~6.5 coming into the year, although I'm not sure how relevant Floyd's Philly stats are on what he'll do in 2010).

- I certainly hope that Gordon Beckham is more Chet Lemon than Darnell Coles or Edwin Encarnacion.

- I'm pretty underwhelmed by that Tyler Flowers projection. He spent (most of) the season at Birmingham (a notorious pitcher's park) and had an OPS near 1.000. Does ZiPS think the k-rate is that debilitating?

- The rotation excites the hell out of me. I'd take the over on the Buehrle, Danks and Floyd projections. I'd be very happy if Peavy finished with those numbers (although I'm expecting a much higher IP total). Garcia as a fifth starter appears to be perfectly acceptable and having Hudson waiting in the wings is nice.

Dan -- do you have a projection for CJ Retherford? As always, these are much appreciated, especially getting 'em out this early.
   7. Walt Davis Posted: October 05, 2009 at 11:16 PM (#3341099)
oh, reverse order of team names. I was hoping for something creative this time around. :-)

On Beckham, 3B and 2B are pretty much the same spot on the defensive spectrum and it really depends on Beckham's mix of arm vs. range as to which he'd be better at. And 3B are "corner bats" in only the technical sense, they hit more like CF than 1B/LF/RF. The question normally would be whether he can handle short but the White Sox already have a pretty good SS ... unless he's moving to CF.

Anyway, a team in a position somewhat similar to where they were last offseason. Dye's an FA right? I'll guess that Rios moves back to RF. They have holes at DH, 2B (or 3B if they move Beckham), and CF while last year they had holes at 3B, 2B and CF. Abreu would look pretty good on this team (some DH, some RF with Rios sliding over). Branyan too though he doesn't seem like the Sox type of player. If they grabbed either of those two, Nady might not be a bad addition. Cameron would be a nice pickup.

The last few years, Williams has sort of specialized in the post-injury/"disappointment" end of the market (Dye, Thome, Quentin, Rios, Pierzynski ... OK, he's just annoying). Who, besides Nady, is on that end of the market this offseason? I could see him grabbing Upton from the Rays -- depends on whether they buy the "lazy" label. Burrell certainly is down here. Kelly Johnson? Felipe Lopez? Chris Young?
   8. Walt Davis Posted: October 06, 2009 at 04:30 AM (#3341265)
Lopez is on the annoying list. At least he seems to annoy teams a lot (6 teams in 4 years).
   9. My guest will be Jermaine Allensworth Posted: October 06, 2009 at 04:42 AM (#3341270)
Is that what $10m is supposed to buy these days? Wow, is the bar really set that low for Rios?

I assumed he meant that Rios won't hurt the team payroll-wise; that he'll be more or less worth his contract when considering offense and defense. I could be wrong.
   10. bhoov Posted: October 06, 2009 at 05:01 AM (#3341277)
Rios is definitely slated for CF. Kenny and Ozzie have repeatedly said he's the CF next year. The only reason he occasionally played RF this year is they didn't want Quentin or Pods playing RF after not getting any reps there all year. So when those 3 played they went Pods CF, Q LF, Rios RF. With Dye gone, I believe they will start either Quentin or whoever the other OF is in RF and leave them there with Rios in CF. In CF if he rebounds as ZIPS projects thats around a 3 WAR player (with above average d in CF as he has in the past). So if he does that he'll be worth his contract.
   11. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: October 06, 2009 at 03:24 PM (#3341491)
I assumed he meant that Rios won't hurt the team payroll-wise; that he'll be more or less worth his contract when considering offense and defense. I could be wrong.

Yes. If he hits as ZiPS projects (and I think he will) and plays plus defense in center, he'll earn his money next year.

I imagine the outfield will be Podsednik in left, Rios in center, and some combination of Quentin, Wise, Kotsay, or whoever else they pick up off the scrap heap in right. As Dan suggests, there's not a whole lot of room for improvement, and the Sox have pretty much made their bed alread in terms of 2010 payroll. As much as I'd like to see it, they're not adding Chone Figgins or Bobby Abreu - Williams already made his big moves for 2010 when he added Peavy and Rios.
   12. ColonelTom Posted: October 06, 2009 at 03:41 PM (#3341510)
Love the rotation, hate the lineup. Only two players above a .340 OBP, and one of them (Quentin) has had major problems staying healthy in his brief career, including a foot problem that might be chronic. Abreu would give them a huge boost offensively, but Dewey's right, that's going to be a serious payroll stretch given their recent acquisitions. Bringing Thome back on a one-year deal, if the price is right, might be a sensible move.
   13. RJ in TO Posted: October 06, 2009 at 03:54 PM (#3341516)
Lopez is on the annoying list. At least he seems to annoy teams a lot (6 teams in 4 years).


Many moons ago, whene the Jays traded Lopez away, there were rumors that it was at least partially because he'd been introduced to the party life by Raul Mondesi, and taken to it like a fish to water.

If he's still living that lifestyle, I can see it being a major source of annoyance to his teams.
   14. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: October 06, 2009 at 04:01 PM (#3341522)
Bringing Thome back on a one-year deal, if the price is right, might be a sensible move.

I'd like to see that as well, but the team is talking about a rotating DH for 2010, using it primarily to try and keep Podsednik and Quentin healthy, and to spell Konerko.
   15. NotLikely20 Posted: October 13, 2009 at 09:08 PM (#3351281)
Agree with the love the rotation, hate the lineup people. However, I think Dye is perfect for the DH role, as his defensive injuries always seem to be followed by a long slump. I think he hits .280 with 35+ HR's for whichever team takes a chance and puts him at DH. The key to the 2010's lineup is obviously a healthy Carlos Quentin. If he comes into camp ready to go, I think the Sox win 90+ games and the division due to their excellent pitching staff. If the Brewers want to part with Prince Fielder for Floyd + ????, Williams should jump on that...as Konerko is obviously well past his prime
   16. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 20, 2009 at 03:45 PM (#3359341)
Hey White Sox fans, got a question for you.

On USSMariner, Dave Cameron is suggesting the M's should trade Jose Lopez, Mark Lowe and Jason Vargas for John Danks.

I said I though the trade was ridiculous; Kenny Williams would laugh then hangup. He defends the trade as fair.

What do you guys think?
   17. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 20, 2009 at 04:03 PM (#3359365)
I think it is ridiculous. I don't see why (a) the Sox would feel the need to deal Danks; and (b) why the Sox would be so eager to get Jose Lopez. There are some decent 2B on the free agent market, and a few that will be available in trades that won't require Danks, and I don't think Lopez/Vargas/Lowe is anywhere near worth what Danks is worth. As one of the commenters noted, it seems like a sports talk radio "let's trade our spare parts for one really good player" trade proposal.
   18. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 20, 2009 at 04:17 PM (#3359379)
I think it is ridiculous. I don't see why (a) the Sox would feel the need to deal Danks; and (b) why the Sox would be so eager to get Jose Lopez. There are some decent 2B on the free agent market, and a few that will be available in trades that won't require Danks, and I don't think Lopez/Vargas/Lowe is anywhere near worth what Danks is worth. As one of the commenters noted, it seems like a sports talk radio "let's trade our spare parts for one really good player" trade proposal.

I was that commenter :-)

Dave's abusing me pretty good (as is his way) but I'll give it right back.

I suggested the M's should send King Felix to the Yankees for Cano, Coke and Mitre. It works according to his "math".
   19. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: October 20, 2009 at 04:30 PM (#3359389)
Not only is that trade ridiculous, but Kenny Williams shouldn't be trading away starting pitching this winter. He has five viable starting pitchers, one prospect that looks like he might be good, and then nothing.
   20. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: October 20, 2009 at 04:35 PM (#3359396)
Dave's abusing me pretty good (as is his way)


Well, it's because you are so abrasive.

Yes, the trade proposal is ridiculous.
   21. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: October 20, 2009 at 04:40 PM (#3359401)
Not only is that trade ridiculous, but Kenny Williams shouldn't be trading away starting pitching this winter. He has five viable starting pitchers, one prospect that looks like he might be good, and then nothing.


Looking at the projections again, I'm actually pretty pleased that ZiPS sees Carlos Torres as being a more-than-acceptable depth guy. Barring a trade he'll be the 7th on the SP depth chart (perhaps sixth if they don't want to jerk Hudson around and just want to stick him in the bullpen for the year), which seems about right.
   22. glover6ss Posted: October 28, 2009 at 12:39 AM (#3368021)
Can we get a projection on Ehren Wassermann? Thanks.
   23. BobbyS Posted: October 29, 2009 at 05:53 AM (#3369884)
Yeah, ZiPs really doesn't like Floyd.

Even more so, Jenks' regression seems a bit harsh. He got his K rate back up and a spike back near/above normal BABIP hurt his overall line and performance, especially with the long ball toward the end. But considering the benefit of the doubt Rios is getting after his performance...this surprised me.
   24. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 23, 2009 at 05:15 AM (#3420520)
Jason Botts, please. (Now a Pale Hose farmhand after flubbing his shot in Japan.)
   25. Harold can be a fun sponge Posted: December 24, 2009 at 12:34 AM (#3421273)
Will Konerko be the worst player with 400 career HR? Right now, that's probably Kingman. Szym projects Konerko to finish with an even lower OPS+, and he doesn't make much up on defense, even against Kingman.

Rk             Player OPS+  HR    PA    R  RBI   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
1          Cal Ripken  112 431 12883 1647 1695 .276 .340 .447 .788
2        Dave Kingman  115 442  7429  901 1210 .236 .302 .478 .780
3        Andre Dawson  119 438 10769 1373 1591 .279 .323 .482 .806
4       Darrell Evans  119 414 10737 1344 1354 .248 .361 .431 .792
5         Ernie Banks  122 512 10395 1305 1636 .274 .330 .500 .830
6          Sammy Sosa  128 609  9896 1475 1667 .273 .344 .534 .878
7        Eddie Murray  129 504 12817 1627 1917 .287 .359 .476 .836
8    Carl Yastrzemski  129 452 13991 1816 1844 .285 .379 .462 .841
9       Dave Winfield  130 465 12358 1669 1833 .283 .353 .475 .827
10      Juan Gonzalez  132 434  7155 1061 1404 .295 .343 .561 .904
11    Rafael Palmeiro  132 569 12046 1663 1835 .288 .371 .515 .885
12       Jose Canseco  132 462  8129 1186 1407 .266 .353 .515 .867
13     Billy Williams  133 426 10519 1410 1475 .290 .361 .492 .853
14       Fred McGriff  134 493 10174 1349 1550 .284 .377 .509 .886
15        Ken Griffey  136 630 11196 1656 1829 .285 .371 .541 .912
16     Carlos Delgado  138 473  8657 1241 1512 .280 .383 .546 .929
17     Reggie Jackson  139 563 11416 1551 1702 .262 .356 .490 .846
18     Gary Sheffield  140 509 10947 1636 1676 .292 .393 .514 .907
19        Duke Snider  140 407  8237 1259 1333 .295 .380 .540 .919
20        Mike Piazza  142 427  7745 1048 1335 .308 .377 .545 .922
21       Jason Giambi  143 409  8135 1159 1330 .282 .405 .527 .932
22      Chipper Jones  143 426  9273 1458 1445 .307 .406 .541 .947 


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/23/2009.
   26. JPWF13 Posted: December 24, 2009 at 07:13 PM (#3421770)
Will Konerko be the worst player with 400 career HR? Right now, that's probably Kingman


If he gets to 400
right now I have Kong with 1.1 wins over Konerko (by the way I do wins over replacement)
I would think that Konerko, if he lasts to 400 would pass Kong and Kong would remain the worst 400+ Homer guy

But it could be close, a couple 100 OPS+ seasons (which is around where I set replacement level for 1B/Dhs) could net Konerko 400 HRs without letting him gain that 1.1 wins he needs to beat Kong.
   27. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan Posted: January 16, 2010 at 07:45 PM (#3439177)
Yeah, ZiPs really doesn't like Floyd.


It never has, and yet that doesn't seem to stop Floyd.

2008: ZiPS projected ERA = 5.87; actual ERA = 3.84

2009: ZiPS projected ERA = 5.11; actual ERA = 4.06

2010: ZiPS projected ERA = 4.78
   28. Greg K Posted: January 16, 2010 at 07:53 PM (#3439178)
Maybe this has been covered before, but ZiPS really doesn't like Buehrle does it?
Is it his declining k-rate?
   29. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: January 17, 2010 at 10:19 PM (#3439837)
It's the fact that any person who conjures a projection system programs it to hate the White Sox.
   30. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: January 18, 2010 at 04:30 PM (#3440162)
I'm not sure where to mention this, but the White Sox signed Bobby Jenks ($7.5 million) and Carlos Quentin ($3.2 million) to one-year deals this weekend.

As I write this, they have two arb-eligible players yet unsigned - John Danks and Tony Pena. I hope that Danks gets a multi-year deal, and they go year-to-year with Pena.
   31. RJ in TO Posted: January 18, 2010 at 04:37 PM (#3440169)
Maybe this has been covered before, but ZiPS really doesn't like Buehrle does it?


Most projection systems don't like Buehrle. I think PECOTA had something like a 5 year run of predicting a Buehrle implosion. I think it's that, as you note, he doesn't have a very impressive K-rate, and he also gives up his share of HR. I'm not sure, but I also don't think that most of these systems consider his ability to completely destroy the running game - for his career, base stealers are 40 for 95 against him, and that doesn't include his pickoffs.
   32. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: January 18, 2010 at 04:49 PM (#3440180)
for his career, base stealers are 40 for 95 against him, and that doesn't include his pickoffs.

And that probably actually underestimates Buehrle's ability to hold runners - something like 2/3 of his starts have been pitched to either AJ Pierzynski or Sandy Alomar, neither one of whom is a particularly good thrower.
   33. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: January 19, 2010 at 08:35 PM (#3441272)
FWIW, Tony Pena ($1.2 million) and John Danks ($3.45 million) have both signed 1-year deals.
   34. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: January 19, 2010 at 08:43 PM (#3441283)
Ehren Wassermann is with the Phillies now, for all you Eh-Wass fans out there who wanted to see his projection.
   35. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan Posted: January 19, 2010 at 08:44 PM (#3441285)
With the signings, I have the 2010 payroll at 101.7 million with four "open" spots (for Beckham, Nix, a backup outfielder, and another reliever).
   36. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: January 19, 2010 at 08:46 PM (#3441291)
With the signings, I have the 2010 payroll at 101.7 million with four "open" spots (for Beckham, Nix, a backup outfielder, and another reliever).

A backup outfielder? Isn't that what Mark Kotsay and Andruw Jones are?
   37. Frisco Cali Posted: January 19, 2010 at 08:49 PM (#3441300)
A backup outfielder? Isn't that what Mark Kotsay and Andruw Jones are?

Kotsay is backup 1B.
Jones is backup DH.

Ozzie will make it work. Somehow.
   38. The Polish Sausage Racer Posted: February 18, 2010 at 06:38 PM (#3462839)
Wow, ZiPS sure likes Hudson. Good. So do I.

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