Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Cincinnati Reds

With the shackles of a one-dimensional offense led by base-clearing Adam Dunn fallen off, the Reds developed a flexible, aggressive offense, featuring the electric leadoff hitter Willy Taveras at the stop of the runner and even the home-run hitters, Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto able to run the bases a bit, especially Phillips.  With red lights turning green, the Red offense would Billyball the team to 90 wins when combined with the improved pitching staff.  Wizened manager Dusty Baker does his best job yet, integrating rookies with veterans and making sure everyone has their proper playing time.

An upopular 12-year-old boy is chased into an old building by other kids that wanted to beat him up.  Inside, the boy finds a magic radio and inside, is a gigantic African-American genie named Kazaam.  Kazaam grants the boy wishes, including junk food falling from the sky, until the boy is kidnapped by the owner of a nightclub.  Kazaam finds the boy dead, but sacrifices his genie powers to bring the boy back from the dead and everyone lives happily ever after.

Which scenario is more plausible?  It’s close, but my money is on Shaquille O’Neal’s 3rd-best movie being closer to a gritty depiction of modern life than the Walt Jocketty-developed dreamscape.

Truth be told, the Reds at least have a good bullpen and some useful starting pitching, even with the true projection for Edinson Volquez being in the neighborhood of “0-0, 0.00” than the projection given below.  The Red offense is still a mess and the team didn’t make much of an effort to try new things or answer questions for 2010 outside of “try every player on the roster at shortstop!”  after making Plans A through Z at the position a mediocre player that missed the entire 2008 season.  There’s a type of team that Dusty Baker can probably manage pretty well.  The Reds, with questions and various options all over the place, are pretty much the worst type of team for Baker to have.

I wouldn’t be too worried about Yonder Alonso.  He’s just not ready to start 2010 and has very good odds to develop quickly if his wrist regains full strength quickly.  As a fake internet doctor with an econ background, I think it’s encouraging that it was a bone that broke rather than a tendon.

Offensive Projections

Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Joey Votto*          1b 26 .293 .372 .500 143 522 78 153 32 2 24 90 64 114 8 4   128
Scott Rolen         3b 35 .283 .352 .439 106 392 52 111 27 2 10 49 39 57 5 3   108
Jonny Gomes         lf 29 .243 .328 .471 121 367 53 89 20 2 20 60 40 114 8 3   108
Kevin Barker*        1b 34 .254 .333 .446 115 397 52 101 21 2 17 62 48 101 1 1   104
Brandon Phillips       2b 29 .276 .327 .446 143 561 79 155 27 4 20 88 38 85 25 8   102
Chris Heisey         cf 25 .270 .329 .415 133 518 75 140 30 3 13 59 39 90 18 4   96
Jay Bruce*          rf 23 .251 .315 .459 127 466 69 117 22 3 23 70 42 111 7 5   102
Wladimir Balentien     lf 25 .250 .315 .440 116 400 53 100 24 2 16 52 39 98 5 3   97
Chris Dickerson*      lf 28 .247 .336 .394 119 388 53 96 17 5 10 39 50 122 17 5   93
Laynce Nix*          lf 29 .249 .302 .456 115 366 52 91 21 2 17 56 26 93 2 1   97
Ryan Hanigan         c   29 .267 .347 .357 99 311 34 83 14 1 4 27 34 43 0 0   87
Daniel Dorn*        lf 25 .250 .312 .414 117 408 49 102 21 2 14 53 32 102 2 1   90
Yonder Alonso*        1b 23 .255 .321 .394 86 322 31 82 19 1 8 47 33 63 1 1   88
Darnell McDonald       rf 31 .261 .311 .409 112 406 52 106 22 4 10 48 29 90 14 4   89
Ramon Hernandez       c   34 .255 .324 .385 104 364 37 93 18 1 9 54 34 56 1 1   87
Danny Richar*        2b 27 .264 .315 .405 100 368 47 97 20 4 8 38 27 65 8 5   89
Drew Sutton#        2b 27 .253 .328 .382 113 403 62 102 22 3 8 42 41 91 9 6   88
Adam Rosales         3b 27 .248 .314 .394 126 432 60 107 25 4 10 50 35 89 6 3   86
Wes Bankston         3b 26 .256 .298 .416 118 450 52 115 23 2 15 65 25 91 2 1   86
Corky Miller         c   34 .243 .328 .361 58 169 17 41 8 0 4 24 17 31 1 0   83
Todd Frazier         lf 24 .253 .306 .400 107 415 50 105 24 2 11 52 31 88 5 5   85
Juan Francisco#      3b 23 .252 .283 .425 141 563 67 142 28 3 21 85 23 147 4 2   84
Sean Henry           rf 24 .257 .313 .374 128 478 60 123 23 3 9 44 35 95 16 9   81
Paul Janish         ss 27 .239 .310 .340 117 385 48 92 22 1 5 35 33 70 4 1   72
Drew Stubbs         cf 25 .235 .305 .348 139 549 73 129 26 3 10 47 53 158 30 11   73
Willy Taveras         cf 28 .260 .309 .320 115 435 65 113 16 2 2 24 27 70 36 7   67
Wilkin Castillo#      c   26 .263 .299 .365 88 304 32 80 15 2 4 28 13 50 6 5   75
Chris Valaika         ss 24 .249 .287 .361 122 485 47 121 23 2 9 53 22 109 3 3   70
Chris Denove         c   27 .244 .301 .356 66 205 18 50 12 1 3 23 15 42 0 2   73
Luis Bolivar#        2b 29 .240 .285 .355 117 375 55 90 17 4 6 36 20 86 18 5   68
Michael Griffin       2b 26 .255 .287 .356 124 447 47 114 24 3 5 37 17 80 8 6   69
Devin Mesoraco       c   22 .230 .289 .349 93 335 27 77 17 1 7 36 26 88 1 2   68
Neftali Soto         3b 21 .244 .276 .358 107 422 39 103 20 2 8 46 18 91 1 2   66
Craig Tatum         c   27 .234 .283 .342 98 342 30 80 17 1 6 40 22 83 0 1   65
Eric Eymann         2b 26 .243 .285 .336 122 420 45 102 21 3 4 42 21 88 2 4   64

Defensive Projections

Name           CThr 1b     2b     3b     ss     lf     cf     rf    
Votto*            Av/129                 Fr/174            
Rolen                       Vg/82                      
Gomes                                   Fr/84       Pr/121
Barker*            Av/125                                
Phillips                 Vg/85                            
Heisey                                 Av/106 Av/126 Av/108
Bruce*                                  Vg/121 Av/136 Vg/148
Balentien                               Av/81   Fr/88   Av/129
Dickerson*                              Vg/136 Fr/136 Av/136
Nix*                                  Vg/92   Pr/172 Av/70  
Hanigan         Av                                      
Dorn*            Av/157                 Av/86       Fr/121
Alonson*          Fr/144                                
McDonald                                 Vg/122 Fr/130 Vg/122
Hernandez       Av   Fr/121                                
Richar*                Pr/138       Pr/159                
Sutton#                Av/140 Fr/121 Pr/154                
Rosales           Av/117 Pr/120 Pr/120 Pr/120 Av/120       Av/120
Bankston           Av/127       Pr/203                      
Miller         Fr   Fr/84                                  
Frazier           Av/107 Fr/107 Fr/107 Fr/107 Av/107            
Francisco#                    Fr/147       Av/160            
Henry                                   Av/151 Fr/229 Av/151
Janish                 Av/121 Av/121 Av/101                
Stubbs                                 Vg/133 Vg/133 Vg/133
Taveras                                       Vg/141      
Castillo#      Av       Fr/128 Fr/128 Pr/137 Fr/121            
Valaika                 Fr/121       Fr/136                
Denove         Vg                                      
Bolivar#          Av/118 Fr/118 Av/118 Fr/118 Av/118       Av/118
Griffin                 Fr/97   Fr/122       Av/81       Av/159
Mesoraco       Fr                                      
Soto             Av/156       Av/156                      
Tatum         Fr                                      
Eymann             Av/111 Fr/124 Av/121 Fr/111                

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name           PO   EX   VG   AV   FR   PO       COMP 1       COMP 2       COMP 3
VottoJoey       1B   30%  40%  18%  9%  2%    MayCarlos     HrbekKent   HafnerTravis
RolenScott       3B   12%  31%  30%  19%  9%      BoyerKen       HoweArt     ZeileTodd
PhillipsBrandon   2B   34%  21%  19%  16%  10%    WhiteFrank   NealCharlie   JacksonRandy
GomesJonny       LF   9%  25%  25%  26%  16%  KomminskBrad     WadeScott     MohrDustan
BarkerKevin     1B   2%  10%  19%  44%  25%    MorynWalt     TracyAndy     StevensLee
HeiseyChris     CF   11%  19%  36%  27%  7%    MatosLuis     MooreTerry     ByrdMarlon
BruceJay       RF   3%  12%  18%  29%  38%    ChurchRyan   KhouryScott RodriguezHenry
BalentienWladimir LF   0%  6%  15%  32%  47%    LennonPat   DayettBrian     JohnsonBen
DickersonChris   LF   3%  4%  10%  28%  55%  LombardGeorge   TuckerMichael   MackowiakRob
NixLaynce       LF   2%  5%  12%  28%  54%    HowittDannKieschnickBrooks WhitmoreDarrell
McDonaldDarnell   RF   1%  5%  10%  23%  62%    BrownEmil BrumfieldJacob     CimoliGino
DornDaniel       LF   0%  1%  5%  21%  73%      BrownDee   KroegerJoshGriffinJohn-Ford
RicharDanny     2B   3%  6%  14%  33%  43%    BucherJim     WilfongRob     MartinStu
HaniganRyan       C   3%  14%  29%  39%  15%    TreshMike     RosarBuddy     AzcueJoe
AlonsoYonder     1B   0%  0%  3%  25%  72%      DeSaJoe     CoxSteve   MillerBarry
HernandezRamon     C   3%  19%  31%  33%  13%    DavisSpud     PenaTony       DiazBo
BankstonWes     3B   0%  3%  11%  30%  55%      LeonJose   WootenShawn   KingBrennan
SuttonDrew       2B   3%  5%  12%  29%  51%  BeattieAndrew   ScalesBobby   BernazardTony
RosalesAdam     3B   1%  4%  10%  29%  55%    RedfieldJoe     BlakeCasey   BrookensTom
FranciscoJuan     3B   0%  1%  9%  28%  62%      LeonJose   HamiltonJeff   CoffieIvanon
FrazierTodd     LF   0%  0%  2%  8%  90%    VentoMike ChamberlainWes   AlexanderChad
MillerCorky       C   2%  12%  30%  43%  13%    DavisSpud       RiceDel     KnorrRandy
HenrySean       RF   0%  0%  1%  4%  94%    AllenChad FicklinWinston     BrownEmil
TaverasWilly     CF   1%  2%  10%  33%  54%  GlanvilleDoug     RuanWilkin   EllisonJason
StubbsDrew       CF   0%  0%  4%  23%  72% ChristensonRyan   GoreckiReid   PowellDante
CastilloWilkin     C   0%  0%  3%  26%  70%  MartinezLuis     DempseyPatRodriguezGuillermo
BolivarLuis     2B   1%  1%  2%  12%  84%    IngramGarey   BeasleyTony   JavierJulian
JanishPaul       SS   0%  2%  10%  32%  56%      PenaBert   VelandiaJorge       ColeStu
ValaikaChristophe SS   0%  0%  4%  20%  76%    CruzFausto   ThomasAndres     RiveraLuis
DenoveChristopher   C   0%  0%  2%  19%  79%    MahoneyMike   LiddleSteven     DatzJeff
GriffinMichael   2B   0%  0%  1%  3%  96%    TaborGregGrudzielanekMark   ManriqueFred
SotoNeftali     3B   0%  0%  0%  1%  99%  HayesCharlie     BellRicky   MoronkoJeff
MesoracoDevin     C   0%  0%  1%  12%  87%  LuzinskiRyan     DavisDoug   MolinaAngel
TatumCraig       C   0%  0%  0%  6%  94%    LopezPedro   DifeliceMike     MolinaJose
EymannEric       2B   0%  0%  0%  1%  99%    TysonMike     DiazEdwin     FlorezTim

Name         .300 BA .375 OBP.500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB
VottoJoey         42%    44%    41%    25%    6%    0%    16%    0%
RolenScott         29%    23%    7%    2%    1%    0%    0%    0%
PhillipsBrandon     17%    2%    15%    2%    1%    3%    13%    27%
GomesJonny         2%    6%    25%    4%    0%    0%    6%    0%
BarkerKevin         6%    7%    9%    1%    0%    0%    3%    0%
HeiseyChris       12%    4%    3%    1%    3%    1%    0%    3%
BruceJay           2%    1%    14%    1%    0%    0%    11%    0%
BalentienWladimir     2%    1%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
DickersonChris       2%    8%    2%    1%    0%    8%    0%    2%
NixLaynce         2%    0%    10%    1%    0%    0%    1%    0%
McDonaldDarnell     10%    1%    1%    0%    0%    5%    0%    0%
DornDaniel         2%    0%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
RicharDanny       10%    2%    2%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
HaniganRyan       14%    17%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
AlonsoYonder       5%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HernandezRamon       5%    5%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BankstonWes         4%    0%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
SuttonDrew         5%    5%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
RosalesAdam         2%    1%    1%    0%    0%    3%    0%    0%
FranciscoJuan       1%    0%    1%    0%    0%    0%    5%    0%
FrazierTodd         3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
MillerCorky         6%    10%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HenrySean         3%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
TaverasWilly       6%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    85%
StubbsDrew         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    54%
CastilloWilkin       8%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BolivarLuis         2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    2%    0%    2%
JanishPaul         1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ValaikaChristophe     1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
DenoveChristopher     4%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
GriffinMichael       3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
SotoNeftali         1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
MesoracoDevin       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
TatumCraig         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
EymannEric         1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Edinson Volquez       26   3.66   8   7 22 22   128.0 102   52 13   65 128 120
Aaron Harang         32   3.96 10 11 29 29   186.1 190   82 27   47 158 111
Johnny Cueto         24   4.08 11 13 31 31   180.2 173   82 25   60 153 108
Bronson Arroyo         33   4.20 12 14 32 32   203.2 208   95 29   63 135 106
Matthew Maloney*      26   4.54   9 13 29 29   174.1 177   88 29   49 135   97
Travis Wood*          23   4.62   8 12 28 28   146.0 147   75 16   76   99   95
Daryl Thompson         24   4.73   3   5 14 13   70.1   74   37 10   23   39   93
Justin Lehr           32   4.79   5   9 25 19   120.1 131   64 17   40   58   92
Ramon A. Ramirez       27   4.84   5   9 38 22   139.1 134   75 21   67 101   91
Micah Owings         27   4.86   7 12 29 24   140.2 140   76 21   60   95   91
Jordan Smith         24   4.87   4   8 17 17   92.1 105   50 11   30   47   90
Homer Bailey         24   4.98   5   9 23 23   128.1 135   71 15   54   97   89
Kip Wells           33   5.05   4   7 37 13   103.1 103   58 12   53   77   88
Sam Lecure           26   5.12   6 11 25 25   135.1 144   77 22   59   99   86
Ben Jukich*          27   5.21   5 11 28 22   129.2 143   75 19   57   88   85
James Avery           26   6.11   3   9 19 19   95.2 117   65 17   44   49   72

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Francisco Cordero       35   3.05   4   3 66   0   65.0   56   22   5   28   67 147
Arthur Rhodes*        40   3.43   2   2 60   0   44.2   38   17   4   20   43 127
Jared Burton         29   3.61   2   2 57   0   62.1   58   25   6   26   53 117
Bill Bray*          27   3.75   4   3 64   0   60.0   57   25   7   25   62 115
Nick Masset           28   3.82   3   3 59   3   77.2   74   33   8   28   62 114
Danny Herrera*        25   3.88   5   5 65   0   69.2   68   30   7   27   53 112
Carlos Fisher         27   4.33   3   3 45   0   60.1   58   29   6   31   52 103
Mike Lincoln         35   4.87   1   2 35   0   40.2   40   22   6   19   29   91
Jeff Kennard         28   5.04   2   4 46   0   60.2   64   34   8   32   43   86
Pedro Viola*          27   5.40   2   5 58   2   68.1   70   41 11   44   58   82

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player         PO     TOP   MID   BOT         COMP 1         COMP 2         COMP 3
CorderoFrancisco   RP     80%  19%  1%  HernandezRoberto   GrimsleyJason       FarrSteve
RhodesArthur     RP     55%  37%  8%    FrymanWoodie     FrancoJohn       PlesacDan
VolquezEdinson   SP     77%  21%  2%      DeLeonJose       ClancyJim     GuzmanJuan
BrayBill       RP     44%  48%  8%    GuthrieMark     DiazCarlos   AssenmacherPaul
BurtonJared     RP     40%  50%  10%      PowerTed     SanchezLuis   CarrascoHector
MassetNick       RP     34%  56%  10%  WilliamsonMark     TessmerJay     LopezAlbie
HerreraDanny     RP     34%  54%  12%    MoloneyBill     SaucierKevin   EversgerdBryan
HarangAaron     SP     53%  45%  3%      LieberJon       ClancyJim     HellingRick
CuetoJohnny     SP     46%  50%  4%    ValeraJulio   TorresSalomon     LackeyJohn
ArroyoBronson     SP     34%  60%  6%    SmithsonMike     TomkoBrett     FranklinRyan
FisherCarlos     RP     17%  56%  27%    CorcoranRoy     SalmonBrad       SmithRoy
MaloneyMatthew   SP     18%  64%  18%    CormierRheal   HammakerAtlee     MischPatrick
WoodTravis       SP     16%  60%  24%    KruegerBill     HancockChris       GomezPat
ThompsonDaryl     SP     20%  47%  33%    KendrickKyle     SallesJohn     DicksonJason
LehrJustin       SP     18%  48%  34%  FigueroaJonathan     SundraSteve     GomezRuben
RamirezRamon     SP     9%  54%  37%    MartinRenie   BettendorfJeff     StrakerLes
OwingsMicah     SP     9%  56%  36%      LealLuis   MartinChandler   CorneliusReid
LincolnMike     RP     12%  36%  52%      SlatonJim     MathewsTerry     MahomesPat
SmithJordan     SP     13%  47%  40%    MitreSergio     DownsKelly       FoggJosh
BaileyHomer     SP     9%  49%  42%    BoskieShawn   TelfordAnthony     PetersonMark
WellsKip       SP     3%  30%  67%      MunozBobby EichelbergerJuan         RayKen
LecureSamuel     SP     5%  42%  52%    CassidyScott   FigueroaNelson   SikorskiBrian
KennardJeff     RP     2%  30%  68%    TrautweinJohn MartinezAnastacio     BrittanCorey
JukichBenjamin   SP     3%  40%  57%    RobertsonNate     LerchRandy     WatsonMark
ViolaPedro       RP     1%  20%  79%    MancusoPaul     BoweBrandon     ScheidRich
AveryJames       SP     0%  9%  91%    FrancoMartire   CooganPatrick   EmanuelBrandon

Player         130 ERA+  100 ERA+  K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9

<1
CorderoFrancisco 74% 99% 87% 0% 84%
RhodesArthur 46% 88% 63% 2% 83%
VolquezEdinson 37% 92% 80% 0% 64%
BrayBill 36% 85% 87% 1% 57%
BurtonJared 32% 81% 32% 1% 77%
MassetNick 27% 83% 15% 2% 66%
HerreraDanny 27% 80% 10% 2% 68%
HarangAaron 13% 80% 26% 29% 19%
CuetoJohnny 12% 75% 29% 1% 25%
ArroyoBronson 6% 68% 0% 5% 19%
FisherCarlos 12% 59% 33% 0% 72%
MaloneyMatthew 3% 47% 10% 11% 7%
WoodTravis 2% 41% 2% 0% 60%
ThompsonDaryl 4% 36% 0% 8% 40%
LehrJustin 5% 37% 2% 9% 30%
RamirezRamon 1% 26% 4% 0% 22%
OwingsMicah 1% 28% 1% 0% 21%
LincolnMike 12% 40% 11% 1% 48%
SmithJordan 2% 28% 0% 7% 43%
BaileyHomer 1% 25% 8% 0% 45%
WellsKip 2% 25% 8% 0% 50%
LecureSamuel 1% 16% 4% 0% 10%
KennardJeff 1% 20% 4% 0% 40%
JukichBenjamin 0% 13% 1% 0% 20%
ViolaPedro 1% 13% 30% 0% 23%
AveryJames 0% 2% 0% 0% 12%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name           BA OBP SLG   G   AB     R     H   2B 3B   HR RBI   BB   SO SB CS OPS+
PhillipsBrandon .265 .315 .422 1687 6509   875   1728 300 46 210 938   420   1045 248 92   91
RolenScott     .280 .362 .479 2083 7644   1227   2143 530 41 304 1244   904   1364 119 53 118
VottoJoey     .282 .364 .475 1896 6872   985   1935 408 25 291 1109   866   1525 98 57 119
TaverasWilly   .268 .316 .324 982 3666   540   984 119 21   14 191   213   594 295 65   67

Player         W   L   S   ERA     G   GS   IP     H   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
ArroyoBronson   168   171   1 4.31   476   440 2798   2895   386   886   1887   105
CorderoFrancisc   61   51   480 3.20   1006     0 1027   913   77   472   1057   145
HarangAaron     156   158   0 4.23   433   427 2714   2841   395   736   2293   105

All figures in % based on projection playing time

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Colorado Rockies




Dan Szymborski Posted: October 21, 2009 at 11:51 PM | 36 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. steagles Posted: October 22, 2009 at 12:16 AM (#3361562)
tony bernazard?
   2. caprules Posted: October 22, 2009 at 01:04 AM (#3361622)
I had no idea that Red SS was so horrible. Is there a worse organizational hole in baseball?
   3. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 22, 2009 at 01:15 AM (#3361636)
I had no idea that Red SS was so horrible.


It's not, really. Valaika broke a hand in May and didn't really recover until the end of the year; I expect his bat to show up next year. Zack Cozart (who for some reason doesn't have a projection here) jumped from low-A to AA and held his own. I would think that one or the other will get a shot at the job sometime next year.

-- MWE
   4. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: October 22, 2009 at 01:16 AM (#3361638)
I had no idea that Red SS was so horrible. Is there a worse organizational hole in baseball?


I dunno, the Royals' everything?
   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 22, 2009 at 01:25 AM (#3361651)
I dunno, the Royals' everything?

If the Royals could keep Zach Greinke and their minor leagues, and re-enter as an expansion team, could they assemble a better team from the expansion draft? I say yes.
   6. The Fallen Reputation of Billy Jo Robidoux Posted: October 22, 2009 at 03:00 AM (#3361721)
I cannot believe Kevin Barker is still playing, and not badly at that.
   7. puck Posted: October 22, 2009 at 03:14 AM (#3361736)
I hope Jay Bruce does better than his projection. He had a wrist injury, right? That's always scary. He hit pretty well in Sept, for what that's worth.
   8. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: October 22, 2009 at 04:26 AM (#3361792)
Votto's going to have a productive but short career, eh?
   9. Juan V Posted: October 22, 2009 at 04:33 AM (#3361800)
Can you make an offensive projection for Owings?
   10. Willie Mayspedester Posted: October 22, 2009 at 06:00 AM (#3361842)
Thats a shits amount of career HR's for the pitchers.
   11. Dan Lee is some pumkins Posted: October 22, 2009 at 06:39 AM (#3361858)
after making Plans A through Z at the position a mediocre player that missed the entire 2008 season
When Dusty resorted to Option J, that's when he crossed the line.
   12. JoeHova Posted: October 22, 2009 at 07:34 AM (#3361867)
What kind of record do people think these projections would translate into? Their pitching looks surprisingly good, even with Volquez injured.
   13. Walt Davis Posted: October 22, 2009 at 07:44 AM (#3361868)
Which scenario is more plausible?

What if the 12-year-old is Darren Baker?

You sure about those Brandon Phillips comps? Javier was an awful hitter (OPS+ of 83, 90, 58 ages 26-28). I'd never heard of Crtiz but looked him up and he was awful too (90, 58, 55). Bolling wasn't too bad. Phillips has a lot more power than any of them (thought I'm too lazy to look at context).
   14. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 22, 2009 at 09:55 AM (#3361887)
I am less enamored with Phillips. He was clearly caught jaking it several times this season. Each time he would swear it wouldn't happen again and then it would.

Not a good sign
   15. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 22, 2009 at 12:18 PM (#3361920)
What kind of record do people think these projections would translate into?


It really depends on who plays, I think. I don't see a rotation ace and I don't see much help for Votto unless Bruce takes a step forward.

-- MWE
   16. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: October 22, 2009 at 01:32 PM (#3361997)
There's no way that Drew Stubbs puts up a lower OBP than Taveras next year. None.

I'll take the over on Votto. He put up a 152 OPS+ this year and and an OPS over 100 points higher than this projection. Why would ZIPS see him as the same player as 2008?

edit: I see Dan answered my question as I was typing it. Personally, I see Votto having a career similar to Berkman. He's a tremendous hitter.
   17. Walt Davis Posted: October 22, 2009 at 06:12 PM (#3362390)
I'm also surprised to see that Hernandez still projects as an average C. If his defense is really average, he might not be a bad guy for the Yankees to sign to take 60-80 games (with Posada usually sliding to DH). Depending on how much he wants of course.

EDIT: and on Phillips' comps, how about just calling him 80% of Sandberg or something?
   18. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 22, 2009 at 06:15 PM (#3362395)
Wow, Arthur Rhodes is still around and still productive. He is entering Jesse Orosco/Julio Franco territory.
   19. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 22, 2009 at 11:18 PM (#3362751)
"Can you make an offensive projection for Owings?"

I, too, am curious about this.
   20. dirk Posted: October 23, 2009 at 04:58 AM (#3363549)
i ran a projection for owings using the sims 2. he gets married to a guy and adopts a chinese kid.
   21. bigseries Posted: October 23, 2009 at 02:11 PM (#3363693)
If you do a quick FIP on Cordero of (BB*3-K*2+HR*13)/IP+3.20, you come out with an ERA of 3.43. Is his predicted ERA in some way based on the fact that he has consistently ourperformed his FIPs in the past?
   22. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 23, 2009 at 02:35 PM (#3363731)
Dan:

Can you do a projection on Cozart?

-- MWE
   23. bigseries Posted: October 23, 2009 at 02:43 PM (#3363741)
So the ER allowed prediction takes into account both the park and the defense behind the pitcher?
   24. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 23, 2009 at 03:07 PM (#3363762)
Random other comments:

Alonso WILL start 2010, my guess is at AA for about six weeks. He's going to hit in the majors; the main question with this team is where he and Votto will play. There's been some talk about Votto going to left field, and that's probably the best way to go. I like Alonso's defense at 1B; he reacts well going both ways. He reminds me quite a bit of Adrian Gonzalez at the plate, with surprising power to center and left-center.

Frazier was moved off SS, and while he played some 2B this year, he didn't play it especially well, and he wasn't any great shakes in LF last year (although he did have a pile of assists). Again, I think the bat will play in the majors, but I really have no idea where he's going to end up, either.

Francisco isn't a switch-hitter; he bats left all the way. He led the Southern League in errors this year, by a bunch, and there were a LOT of other balls that got by him that he didn't even make the faintest effort to field - when he made a dive for a ball in a game late in the season the Section 210 regulars all sort of looked at each other in shock that he'd actually gotten his uniform dirty. He can be handled with high heat, either up and in or up and away; he just can't lay off those pitches most of the time (although that is one area where he did improve somewhat as the season went on). In 11 years here I don't think I've seen the Mudcats' fan base react so negatively to a guy, and it wasn't just the Section 210 folks, either. Francisco can hit the ball a long way - but he reminds me so much of Jason Stokes as a hitter, even though Stokes batted right and Francisco hits left, that it's not funny. I'm amused that two of his three listed comps are failed Baltimore 3B prospects.

-- MWE
   25. danielj Posted: October 26, 2009 at 10:58 PM (#3366945)
I can see Bruce hitting a LOT of HRs if he's healthy.
   26. SouthSideRyan Posted: October 28, 2009 at 07:19 PM (#3368740)
There's no way Steel was a better movie than Kazaam.
   27. threepointpi Posted: November 15, 2009 at 09:23 PM (#3388188)
Dan, or anybody for that matter,
I have a questions regarding:

Chris Dickerson* lf 28 .247 .336 .394 119 388 53 96 17 5 10 39 50 122 17 5 93

How is his OBP so low? So far, in his 421 ML PA, he's posted a .383 OBP with a great BB % and improving K %. Just wondering how the projection has his OBP so much lower than his career, even though his career has been pretty short so far.
   28. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: November 15, 2009 at 09:36 PM (#3388193)
I can't speak for Dan's model, but my guess is that 421 ML plate appearances aren't really that much, and he's a 28-year-old career minor leaguer without much power. A lot of dudes see their BB rates collapse in the majors if they don't prove they can punish a pitch in the zone.
   29. Rays&Sox; Posted: January 06, 2010 at 02:49 AM (#3429197)
Dan,
Could you check Bruce's numbers again?

James .274/.340/.537, 877 OPS
CHONE .283/.349/.537, 886 OPS
ZiPS .251/.315/.459, 774 OPS

Bruce is interesting, through age 22 Bonds is his top comp on BBRef and Wily Mo is his second. Talk about could go either way, though Reggie Jackson is #4.
   30. Ken015 Posted: January 27, 2010 at 01:23 PM (#3447479)
Dan, Would you please include the projection for P Enerio Del Rosario prior to the final version. He seems to have found a magic ground ball pitch. Thanks
   31. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: August 30, 2010 at 08:20 PM (#3630160)
The Red offense is still a mess

#1 in the NL in runs scored (by 30 runs as of 8/30)! Though, no one would have guessed that at the beginning of the season.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Infinite Joost (Voxter)
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Page rendered in 0.5319 seconds
47 querie(s) executed