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Thursday, December 31, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Cleveland Indians

It should hardly come as a surprise to anybody who watched the Indians this season, but the team has some serious rotation issues going forward.  Any team needs to have a lot of money to quickly be able to replace three excellent starters (Carmona’s pre-implosion performance was still lost by the team, even if they weren’t able to cash in like they did with Lee and Sabathia).  The bullpen should perform a lot better, but that’s going to hardly be enough with an extremely shaky rotation and an offense of serviceable players.

Don’t get me wrong, the team isn’t devoid of talent and if a few of the starting prospects stepping forward could make the Indians competitive fairly soon.  It’s a weak division and while the team has similar issues to the Orioles (but slightly worse), there’s no juggernaut in the Central to worry about, let alone two.

Do remember, however, that some of the team’s best pitching prospects aren’t projected because they are still pretty far away.  If one or two of Jason Knapp, Nick Hagadone, and Alex White pan out, the situation starts to look a little less bleak.  The team can hardly be counting on Scott Lewis or especially Adam Miller, but they would be nice bonuses if the Indians are a bit lucky.  This organization has a good long-term future, but that future isn’t 2010.

Offensive Projections

Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Shin-Soo Choo*        rf 27 .286 .375 .466 127 461 75 132 30 4 15 79 59 116 10 3   121
Grady Sizemore*      cf 27 .264 .368 .482 134 537 92 142 30 6 25 86 80 121 15 5   122
Travis Hafner*        dh 33 .257 .365 .448 102 362 48 93 19 1 16 64 58 80 0 0   114
Carlos Santana#      c   24 .250 .352 .429 127 448 69 112 28 2 16 74 70 102 1 2   105
Matt LaPorta         lf 25 .265 .338 .443 114 422 63 112 25 1 16 72 38 88 1 1   104
Asdrubal Cabrera#      ss 24 .281 .344 .406 145 549 83 154 36 3 9 78 51 106 10 3   97
Jhonny Peralta       3b 28 .265 .327 .420 146 567 75 150 33 2 17 89 51 133 1 1   96
Jordan Brown*        lf 26 .278 .331 .405 122 474 57 132 29 2 9 64 34 76 3 2   93
Michael Brantley*      cf 23 .282 .348 .360 134 547 84 154 24 2 5 54 55 60 32 7   88
Andy Marte           3b 26 .255 .303 .426 121 420 48 107 23 2 15 66 29 83 1 0   90
Luis Valbuena*        2b 24 .256 .320 .384 135 484 75 124 26 3 10 56 46 97 6 5   85
Nicholas Weglarz*      lf 22 .228 .331 .357 113 403 58 92 18 2 10 53 56 109 2 3   82
Matt McBride         lf 25 .256 .302 .381 101 399 46 102 27 1 7 61 21 61 0 0   79
Lou Marson           c   24 .247 .338 .325 109 381 53 94 19 1 3 43 51 89 2 2   77
Lonnie Chisenhall*    3b 21 .248 .300 .379 109 443 51 110 24 2 10 65 29 94 2 1   78
Trevor Crowe#        cf 26 .249 .319 .342 113 421 60 105 21 3 4 42 41 84 14 6   75
Chris Gimenez         c   27 .229 .313 .347 103 354 43 81 16 1 8 37 38 97 2 2   74
Wyatt Toregas         c   27 .247 .303 .349 92 312 26 77 14 0 6 41 23 63 1 1   72
Stephen Head*        rf 26 .248 .290 .360 104 403 42 100 22 1 7 47 22 77 1 1   74
Jason Donald         ss 25 .238 .305 .334 96 383 53 91 18 2 5 42 32 103 5 2   69
Wes Hodges           3b 25 .247 .295 .349 113 438 41 108 22 1 7 56 28 103 3 2   70
Cord Phelps#        2b 23 .240 .318 .321 128 517 62 124 24 3 4 53 57 109 8 10   70
Beau Mills*          1b 23 .239 .283 .355 137 543 52 130 28 1 11 74 31 135 1 2   68
Tony Graffanino       2b 38 .234 .286 .349 56 209 24 49 13 1 3 25 13 40 1 0   67
Josh Barfield         2b 27 .251 .280 .343 112 402 43 101 20 1 5 45 15 78 6 3   64
Carlos Rivero         ss 22 .236 .285 .319 131 501 44 118 23 2 5 58 36 107 1 1   60
Josh Rodriguez       2b 25 .224 .296 .308 95 370 43 83 13 3 4 34 37 99 6 4   60

Defensive Projections

Name           CThr 1b     2b     3b     ss     lf     cf     rf    
Choo*                                  Av/69       Av/111
Sizemore*                                    Av/66      
Santana#        Fr                                      
LaPorta           Fr/187                 Fr/99       Fr/101
Cabrera#                Av/71       Fr/117                
Peralta                       Av/107 Fr/94                  
Brown*            Av/136                 Av/80       Av/80  
Brantley*          Av/96                   Vg/78   Av/83      
Marte             Av/112       Av/112                      
Valbuena*                Av/105       Fr/126                
Weglarz*                                Fr/160       Fr/160
McBride         Fr   Fr/128                 Av/44       Av/44  
Marson         Av                                      
Chisenhall*                    Vg/144 Fr/175                
Crowe#                                  Vg/114 Av/127 Vg/114
Gimenez         Fr   Fr/142       Fr/170       Fr/160       Fr/160
Toregas         Av                                      
Head*            Av/78                   Av/97       Av/97  
Donald                             Av/127                
Hodges             Av/117       Fr/160                      
Phelps#                Av/94                            
Mills*            Av/120       Pr/132                      
Graffanino         Vg/120 Av/92   Vg/105 Fr/120                
Barfield                 Av/120             Av/120            
Rivero                             Av/130                
Rodriguez               Av/120       Fr/155                

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name           PO   EX   VG   AV   FR   PO       COMP 1       COMP 2       COMP 3
ChooShin-Soo     RF   33%  38%  16%  9%  5%    SiebernNorm   WalkerLarry     HayesVon
SizemoreGrady     CF   60%  23%  14%  4%  0%    LankfordRay   BeltranCarlos     EdmondsJim
HafnerTravis     DH   6%  21%  29%  36%  9%  DowningBrian     ClarkWill   MayberryJohn
LaPortaMatt     LF   5%  16%  21%  30%  28%    MenchKevin   CordovaMarty     QuinnMark
SantanaCarlos     C   20%  45%  25%  10%  1%    GuldenBrad TettletonMickey   PorterDarrell
CabreraAsdrubal   SS   23%  31%  31%  12%  3%  RollinsJimmy     YountRobin   RenteriaEdgar
BrantleyMichael   CF   4%  13%  34%  35%  13%  MartinezDave     ReedJeremy   DykstraLenny
PeraltaJhonny     3B   2%  12%  23%  33%  30%  WhitneyPinky     BooneAaron   BuecheleSteve
BrownJordan     LF   1%  6%  9%  21%  63%    WatsonMatt AndersonGarret     AmelungEd
MarteAndy       3B   1%  4%  15%  35%  45%  CastillaVinny     TatumJim   WoodsonTracy
ValbuenaLuis     2B   1%  3%  9%  26%  60%CatalanottoFrank     OrtizJose   MoutonJames
McBrideMatthew   LF   0%  0%  1%  4%  95%  RohrmeierDan   ClarkJerald   WilliamsDana
ChisenhallLonnie   3B   0%  0%  3%  16%  81%    CooperScott     SchuRick     WalkerNeil
WeglarzNick     LF   0%  0%  1%  5%  95%  BrownRoosevelt     BeckerRich   GentileGene
CroweTrevor     CF   1%  1%  5%  22%  71%  SullivanCory   RobersonChris     SternAdam
MarsonLou       C   0%  2%  9%  38%  51%  ThigpenCurtis   GonzalezPete   MooreCharlie
ToregasWyatt     C   0%  1%  5%  29%  66%    ChavezRaul   MachadoRobert     HinchA.J.
GimenezChris     C   0%  2%  7%  28%  63%    WaszgisB.J.    SellersRick   MoellerChad
HeadStephen     RF   0%  0%  0%  1%  99%  HammondSteve     MackQuinn   RohrmeierDan
HodgesWes       3B   0%  0%  0%  3%  96%  PenningtonKen     BellDavid   BattleHoward
DonaldJason     SS   1%  2%  7%  23%  67% de la RosaTomas LeMasterJohnnie     CollierLou
GraffaninoTony   2B   0%  0%  0%  3%  97%    SuderPete   EasleyDamion     WoodJason
MillsBeau       1B   0%  0%  0%  0%  100%VelasquezGuiller   LahairBryan   BirrielJose
BarfieldJosh     2B   0%  0%  0%  1%  98%    HudlerRex   LonigroGreg     SojoLuis
RiveroCarlos     SS   0%  0%  0%  5%  95%    CruzFausto     ParisKelly     ReesePokey
RodriguezJoshua   2B   0%  0%  0%  0%  100%      NealMike ConnacherKevin RodriguezEdwin

Name         .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB
ChooShin-Soo       34%    48%    26%    16%    4%    5%    2%    0%
SizemoreGrady       10%    39%    31%    17%    3%    14%    22%    0%
HafnerTravis       8%    32%    8%    5%    0%    0%    1%    0%
LaPortaMatt       10%    8%    10%    2%    0%    0%    1%    0%
SantanaCarlos       3%    17%    7%    3%    1%    0%    2%    0%
CabreraAsdrubal     24%    10%    2%    0%    14%    1%    0%    0%
BrantleyMichael     21%    12%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    67%
PeraltaJhonny       7%    2%    4%    0%    6%    0%    3%    0%
BrownJordan       20%    4%    1%    0%    2%    0%    0%    0%
MarteAndy         4%    0%    2%    1%    0%    0%    1%    0%
ValbuenaLuis       3%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
McBrideMatthew       3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ChisenhallLonnie     1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
WeglarzNick         0%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CroweTrevor         2%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
MarsonLou         2%    7%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ToregasWyatt       3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
GimenezChris       1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HeadStephen         2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HodgesWes         1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
DonaldJason         2%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
GraffaninoTony       4%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
MillsBeau         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BarfieldJosh       2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
RiveroCarlos       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
RodriguezJoshua     0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Justin Masterson       25   4.47   8   8 43 20   139.0 143   69 13   58 102 101
Jake Westbrook         32   4.70   2   3 10 10   51.2   56   27   6   20   31   96
Aaron Laffey*        25   4.78   9 11 30 27   156.1 177   83 14   62   79   95
Scott Lewis*          26   4.96   4   5 16 16   74.1   83   41 11   23   48   91
Fausto Carmona         26   5.06 10 13 30 30   172.2 189   97 20   74 105   89
Hector Rondon         22   5.09   9 12 28 27   141.1 161   80 19   47   98   89
Jeremy Sowers*        27   5.21   8 12 31 30   171.0 198   99 21   60   82   87
David Huff*          25   5.24   8 11 26 26   135.2 155   79 20   46   81   86
Anthony Reyes         28   5.29   4   5 19 16   85.0   92   50 12   38   50   85
Hector Ambriz         26   5.76   7 13 28 27   145.1 175   93 22   62   81   79
Ryan Edell*          26   5.83   5   9 31 23   129.2 158   84 23   42   80   78
Michael Tejera*        33   5.91   2   5 21   8   64.0   74   42 11   32   28   77
Jack Cassel           29   5.94   5 10 23 20   119.2 154   79 16   49   64   76
Carlos Carrasco       23   5.97   8 15 30 29   161.1 194 107 27   72 107   76
Zach Jackson*        27   6.19   5 10 35 19   129.1 166   89 20   52   69   73
Jeanmar Gomez         22   6.28   5 12 27 27   133.1 167   93 22   62   81   72
Tomo Ohka           34   6.30   3   6 13 11   65.2   85   46 12   21   31   72
Kirk Saarloos         31   6.31   4   8 28 15   102.2 132   72 18   41   46   72
Kelvin de la Cruz*      22   6.44   2   6 12 12   50.1   58   36   7   41   36   70

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Chris Perez           24   3.92   3   2 69   0   64.1   54   28   8   33   72 116
Kerry Wood           33   3.93   4   2 52   0   50.1   46   22   5   21   53 115
Jensen Lewis         26   4.11   4   3 63   0   85.1   79   39 11   36   80 110
Rafael Perez*        28   4.17   4   4 73   0   77.2   78   36   7   28   68 108
Tony Sipp*          26   4.18   2   1 47   0   47.1   42   22   6   24   50 108
Joe Smith           26   4.20   2   2 60   0   49.1   48   23   5   23   41 108
Jesse Todd           24   4.54   4   4 68   0   71.1   73   36   8   27   58 100
Zach Putnam           22   4.61   4   4 40   5   80.0   86   41   7   32   56   98
Jose Veras           29   4.70   3   4 53   0   53.2   50   28   7   31   48   96
Rich Rundles*        29   4.94   3   4 52   0   51.0   54   28   5   29   37   92
Mike Gosling*        29   5.56   4   7 48   5   89.0 104   55 12   42   63   81
Ken Ray             35   5.99   3   5 34   7   70.2   83   47 10   38   43   76

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player         PO     TOP   MID   BOT         COMP 1         COMP 2         COMP 3
PerezChris       RP     34%  55%  11%    ValverdeJose   BenitezArmando       SotoMario
WoodKerry       RP     43%  43%  14%    GossageRich       ShueyPaul     LopezAurelio
LewisJensen     RP     27%  60%  13%      DavisRon       LaddPete   WettelandJohn
PerezRafael     RP     24%  58%  18%  HickersonBryan       PlesacDan   AssenmacherPaul
SippTony       RP     34%  46%  21%    OroscoJesse       HallTom     McElroyChuck
SmithJoe       RP     25%  55%  21%      CruzJuan       RyanKen     NelsonJeff
MastersonJustin   SP     9%  63%  28%    NolesDickie     FisherBrian     KepshireKurt
ToddJess       RP     13%  53%  33%    OrvellaChad     ClontzBrad   StricklandScott
PutnamZach       RP     12%  55%  33%      OlinSteve     ResopChris     AcevedoJose
VerasJose       RP     11%  46%  42%  SchiraldiCalvin     HenryDwayne   SchroderChris
WestbrookJake     SP     25%  44%  32%  HernandezLivan     BosioChris     RuthvenDick
LaffeyAaron     SP     16%  58%  26%    AndersonJimmy   ElviraNarciso     ThurmondMark
RundlesRich     RP     7%  41%  52%  LovingierKevin     MohlerMike       GlynnEd
LewisScott       SP     17%  44%  39%    DishmanGlenn     HenryButch   McWilliamsLarry
MillerAdam       SP     24%  35%  40%    NolesDickie     DavisStorm     BoggsTommy
CarmonaFausto     SP     7%  58%  34%      LearyTim   GonzalezEnrique   SeminaraFrank
RondonHector     SP     7%  54%  39%      SuppanJeff     MyersBrett     BakerScott
SowersJeremy     SP     4%  49%  47%      LathamBill     MarothMike     MathesAlfred
HuffDavid       SP     5%  41%  55%    MischPatrick     HenryButch     PriestEddie
ReyesAnthony     SP     5%  39%  56%    ThompsonMark   CorneliusReid     HendersonRod
GoslingMike     RP     0%  18%  82%    FranklinWayne       EyreScott     HolzemerMark
AmbrizHector     SP     0%  19%  80%    RichardsRusty     IrelandEric ChristiansenClay
EdellRyan       SP     1%  19%  80%      MayDarrell       LeekRandy   LilliquistDerek
CasselJack       SP     1%  17%  83%      MagraneJim       AugustDon     ThurmanMike
CarrascoCarlos   SP     0%  14%  86%      CrouchMatt     NolascoRicky       SmithRoy
RayKen         RP     2%  10%  87%      MahomesPat       WeberBen       BrowerJim
JacksonZach     SP     0%  8%  92%      StultsEric       LucasGary       FlohrAdam
GomezJeanmar     SP     0%  6%  94%      OlsenKevin     CornejoNate     BerneroAdam
OhkaTomo       SP     3%  12%  85%    BaldwinJames     LangfordRick   FernandezJared
SaarloosKirk     SP     1%  8%  90%      RoachJason   FernandezJared       BellRob
de la CruzKelvin   SP     2%  10%  89%      ChergeyDan   HaigwoodDaniel     OvallesJuan

Player         130 ERA+  100 ERA+  K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9

<1
PerezChris 34% 81% 95% 0% 49%
WoodKerry 35% 81% 86% 1% 76%
LewisJensen 22% 80% 64% 0% 49%
PerezRafael 19% 73% 43% 2% 79%
SippTony 26% 73% 86% 0% 44%
SmithJoe 25% 66% 27% 1% 65%
MastersonJustin 6% 60% 6% 0% 80%
ToddJess 10% 60% 21% 2% 55%
PutnamZach 9% 55% 3% 1% 84%
VerasJose 8% 50% 44% 0% 45%
WestbrookJake 10% 46% 1% 4% 64%
LaffeyAaron 3% 39% 0% 1% 75%
RundlesRich 4% 33% 5% 0% 76%
LewisScott 3% 31% 1% 14% 29%
MillerAdam 7% 41% 7% 3% 65%
CarmonaFausto 0% 25% 0% 0% 52%
RondonHector 1% 24% 3% 4% 33%
SowersJeremy 0% 15% 0% 2% 41%
HuffDavid 0% 14% 0% 2% 21%
ReyesAnthony 1% 19% 0% 0% 27%
GoslingMike 0% 9% 2% 0% 33%
AmbrizHector 0% 3% 0% 0% 16%
EdellRyan 0% 4% 0% 4% 6%
CasselJack 0% 4% 0% 1% 32%
CarrascoCarlos 0% 2% 1% 0% 9%
RayKen 2% 9% 4% 0% 32%
JacksonZach 0% 1% 0% 0% 13%
GomezJeanmar 0% 1% 0% 0% 10%
OhkaTomo 1% 6% 0% 14% 13%
SaarloosKirk 0% 3% 0% 3% 12%
de la CruzKelvin 0% 4% 7% 0% 42%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name           BA OBP SLG   G   AB     R     H   2B 3B   HR RBI   BB   SO SB CS OPS+
CabreraAsdrubal .277 .347 .404 2172 8099   1252   2242 493 42 151 1161   846   1660 135 51   97
PeraltaJhonny   .262 .328 .418 1562 5923   812   1554 331 24 180 847   561   1453 14 20   95
ChooShin-Soo   .277 .369 .448 1398 5028   802   1395 307 43 155 821   659   1344 95 32 114
SizemoreGrady   .258 .360 .458 2054 8212   1387   2120 446 83 342 1131 1176   1983 238 78 114
HafnerTravis   .269 .374 .489 1239 4345   663   1168 264 13 222 801   675   1020   7   6 127

Player         W   L   S   ERA     G   GS   IP     H   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
CarmonaFausto     98   121   0 4.92   315   284 1671   1791   179   732   1039   92
WestbrookJake     76   79   0 4.43   252   212 1341   1451   125   440   748   100

All figures in % based on projection playing time

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

 

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Mariners

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees




These projections were sponsored in part by:

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Dan Szymborski Posted: December 31, 2009 at 09:20 PM | 27 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. philly Posted: December 31, 2009 at 09:38 PM (#3425662)
You have Hafner in the ODDIBE section but his offensive projection seems to be missing.

I don't know why I'm so drawn to the little oddities about the career projections, but I am. Sizemore only getting an extra ~100 career AB over Cabrera and playing fewer games just doesn't seem right. I guess he can be a utility guy, Alex Cora type for a long time but that one seems strange.
   2. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 31, 2009 at 09:48 PM (#3425665)
At this point, wouldn't it make some sense to see if Kerry Wood can start again, try to up his value, and trade him?
   3. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 31, 2009 at 09:58 PM (#3425669)
I liked Justin Masterson, but it's kind of sad to see him projected as a team's best starter.
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 31, 2009 at 10:11 PM (#3425682)
Masterson, Starter: 10-11, 4.66
Masterson, Reliever: 4-3, 3.78

So, he still stays the best starter as full-time starter.

For those wondering, ZiPS is "trained" to look out for pitchers that have obvious role changes (so if a guy that's been 100% starting has most recent year of 100% relieving, for example, ZiPS assumes he's a full-time reliever now). In essence, from quality of pitcher, start/relief use of pitcher, and changes in both, I made a model of predicting future start/relief roles for initial pitcher projections.

My judgment doesn't come in until I'm making a roster and depth chart the last build. Masterson will, barring some unusual situation, have a full-time starter projection come March.

Also, Jason Grilli will be added.
   5. STEAGLES is all out of bubblegum Posted: December 31, 2009 at 10:16 PM (#3425686)
would i be the only one who wouldn't at all be surprised if carlos carrasco bests his ZiPS ERA by 2 full runs? i see where the projection comes from, but i think he's a hell of a pitcher, and it's gotta show through at some point.
   6. NBarnes Posted: December 31, 2009 at 10:23 PM (#3425689)
Man, Shin-Soo Choo really made good, didn't he?
   7. Shock Posted: December 31, 2009 at 10:41 PM (#3425697)
Damn, I love Cleveland's outfield.
   8. Walt Davis Posted: December 31, 2009 at 10:42 PM (#3425699)
Random comments:

1. I thought Cabrera was supposed to be a defensive whiz. Sure seemed like he was a couple years ago. Still, very nice comps for him -- and easy to see how a player like that would hold onto a starting job for a long time (i.e. in response to #1).

2. So I should hold off on the Grady for the HoF campaign.

3. An ugly set of comps for Matt LaPorta.

4. I had to look up Brad Gulden -- that must have been one odd career. Lots of injuries? Horrendous defense? (look at his minors numbers or that comment won't make sense)

5. I am surprised that Santana is projected to walk that much. I thought minor-league walk rates weren't supposed to translate very well (from Mike Emeigh maybe? you?). I'll take the under on the walks, at least for his rookie year.

6. Guitar fans hope that Santana and Grant Green (A's) have long careers.

7. The rotation does stink but at least it looks like you get 8 or 9 deep before hitting true disasters. I guess that's assuming health for Carmona and Westbrook though.

8. A serious question which I should have thought of long ago. What use are we supposed to make of a player's comps? As I understand it, they are "recent performance" comps (i.e. the last 3-4 seasons at the same age) not career comps. Do they tell us:

a) this is the kind of player you can expect this guy to be in 2010;
b) this is the kind of player you can expect this guy to be over the next 3-4 years;
c) this is the kind of career you can expect this guy to have from here on out?

Probably some mix of the 3 but is there a rough %age you could give us on each? (and obviously each of those comes with huge caveats about uncertainty.)
   9. frannyzoo Posted: December 31, 2009 at 11:17 PM (#3425718)
Wow...years of therapy and Jack Z must be working...I'm a M's fan and the Asdrubal C. projection doesn't make me want to throw my beer bottle through the monitor. At least until I look again at the Jack Wilson projection of OPS+ 37 or whatever the Hell it is.
   10. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: December 31, 2009 at 11:49 PM (#3425733)
How's the Choo projection treating you, then? Imagine an outfield of Adam Jones--Franklin Gutierrez--Ichiro, with Shin-Soo Choo at DH, and with Michael Saunders as trade bait. Put Cabrera and J. Lopez in the middle infield, Beltre at 3rd, and Felix/Lee/Tillman/Morrow properly developed, and you start getting the crazies.
   11. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 01, 2010 at 01:07 AM (#3425759)

8. A serious question which I should have thought of long ago. What use are we supposed to make of a player's comps? As I understand it, they are "recent performance" comps (i.e. the last 3-4 seasons at the same age) not career comps. Do they tell us:

a) this is the kind of player you can expect this guy to be in 2010;
b) this is the kind of player you can expect this guy to be over the next 3-4 years;
c) this is the kind of career you can expect this guy to have from here on out?


Giving straight percentages on these is an answer I don't even know how to tackle.

When it comes down to it, I'm doing the same thing as one would do when calculating generic playing aging in baseball history. I'm just doing it on the fly with similar players being a bigger part of the model.

Individual comps are most important the nearer the time frame - as the years you project become farther in the future, the aging becomes more generic. Even then, specific individuals aren't really all that important in the model as a whole, even the top few guys.
   12. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: January 01, 2010 at 02:30 AM (#3425782)
This is projected to be one tired bullpen. Westbrook and Masterson's IP projections barely get over 5 IP per start. Yikes.
   13. Boxkutter Posted: January 01, 2010 at 02:43 AM (#3425789)
Gold Star.... actually, Valbuena could be at 2B instead of Lopez. But then it nullifies the Frankie Gutez trade.
   14. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: January 01, 2010 at 05:18 PM (#3425935)
Valbuena ain't much; rather have Lopez, let alone Gutierrez . . .
   15. sportznut Posted: January 01, 2010 at 08:23 PM (#3425994)
I definitely thought Asdrubal would get a better SS rating. I thought that was the whole reason he moved there from 2B, not to mention moving Peralta off of there. I always heard good reports on Cabrera's defense though.

Man, this pitching staff is ROUGH.
   16. rlc Posted: January 01, 2010 at 10:07 PM (#3426031)
So ZiPS projects Santana to outhit Wieters this year. Is the Eastern League really that much tougher than the International League and the American League?
   17. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 02, 2010 at 12:19 AM (#3426064)
Combined MLB and translations:

Wieters

2008: 291/359/404
2009: 281/339/422

Santana

2008: 260/353/454
2009: 243/343/416

They'd both get better projections if they played other positions - young catchers are very risky.
   18. adamadkins Posted: January 02, 2010 at 12:26 AM (#3426068)
Matt Wieters is above projection.
   19. a wider scope of derision Posted: January 02, 2010 at 06:26 AM (#3426143)
Really, a ZERO percent chance Grady steals 30 bases? That seems broken.
   20. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 02, 2010 at 07:20 AM (#3426155)
Really, a ZERO percent chance Grady steals 30 bases? That seems broken.


Well, it's not quite zero, just rounded. ZiPS actually says 1-in-229.

Remember, though, those are the odds of him stealing 30 bases at the projected playing time. Not counting reached on error in either case, ZiPS has Sizemore standing on first base 168 times in his projection while that number is 229 for 2007 and 202 in 2008.

With 750 PA, the odds of 30 stolen bases increases to 24%
   21. frenchredsox Posted: January 02, 2010 at 04:02 PM (#3426210)
Dan,
seems that Adam Miller's projection got lost (although he is ODDIBE).

Also the Indians picked up ex Padre Luis A. Rodriguez to "play" the Carroll role - any chance of getting his projection added in ? ditto for Saul Rivera.Thanks
   22. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 02, 2010 at 04:39 PM (#3426222)
Asdrubal Cabrera's comps - good god.

Two Hall of Very Good shortstops with eight all-star appearances and an MVP between them. And also Robin Yount.
   23. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 02, 2010 at 05:17 PM (#3426258)
The rest of Cabrera's top 10 is Marion, Trammell, Bartell, Cordero, Jimenez, Biggio, and Kubek.
   24. GotowarMissAgnes Posted: January 02, 2010 at 05:54 PM (#3426280)
So glad I picked up Asdrubal off the waiver wire for my fantasy team last year :)
   25. Saberseams Posted: January 04, 2010 at 03:56 PM (#3427015)
I think the answer to this is "yes", but are these OPS+ projections park and league adjusted?
   26. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 04, 2010 at 04:00 PM (#3427017)
OPS+ is always a park and league neutral stat, so yes!
   27. Ken015 Posted: February 19, 2010 at 04:34 AM (#3463292)
Will Hagadone be projected this season?

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