Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, October 19, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Colorado Rockies

In years past, my primary criticism of Dan O’Dowd has been the lack of planning.  He’s always been a solid evaluator of talent and a solid adminstrator, but the goals, both short and long-term, were always a little schizo.

This year, however, O’Dowd did a great job.  A lot of the indecision and alternating between being too patient and too impatient with assorted players wasn’t present in 2009 and I think that difference makes this edition of the Rockies a clearly better team than the 2007 team.

One can’t overlook the fact that the team, after the season started, was generally pretty healthy.  5 starters got enough playing time to qualify for the batting title and a 6th, Ian Stewart, was very close.  Only 10 pitchers got starts for the Rockies and only 5 pitchers got more than 2 starts.

However, even when you take the general lack of injury emergencies, O’Dowd made a lot of good decisions and most importantly, never displayed panic.  For example, when Atkins started out terribly, the team didn’t freak out and trade Jimenez for Melvin Mora or something, they took heart in still having Ian Stewart around, even if he hardly had a breakout season.  Same goes for the losses of Holliday and Fuentes.  Matt Holliday was and remains a terrific player, but the Rockies do have outfielders that can hit a bit and filled the position well, which minimized the damage of the loss.  When Carlos Gonzalez finally had a big breakout year in the minors, the Rockies rightfully gave him a chance to succeed in the majors, not fretting too much over previous play or that there were too many young hitters on the team (Helton was the only older-than-30 position player to contribute much).

Nowhere was there a player like Willy Taveras, who essentially kept playing because that was plan A.  There were no Steve Finley disasters and there was no giving rotation jobs to players like Mark Redman or Livan Hernandez.

Not every player worked out, but I don’t think there was a single player on the Rockies that was given a bigger role, at the start of the season, than one could reasonably expect them to handle.  And that’s good planning.

For example, Corpas was pretty weak this year but the Rockies had a reasonable basis at the start of the season to think he would pitch better than he did.  Not all moves work out, but when you’re starting a season with Willy Taveras as your leadoff hitter and intentionally give playing time to Livan “Pitcher of Fail” Hernandez, it’s not luck that’s causing you to lose games.

There are no huge stars on the Rockies, but they’re a very solid team from top to bottom (kind of the opposite of the Twins) and do a great job at picking up bullpen arms on the cheap. 

Offensive Projections

Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Todd Helton*        1b 36 .291 .397 .442 122 446 59 130 27 2 12 62 80 65 0 1   119
Seth Smith*          lf 27 .289 .366 .473 144 425 63 123 25 4 15 64 51 74 6 2   117
Brad Hawpe*          rf 31 .264 .367 .468 136 470 66 124 27 3 21 80 75 135 1 3   116
Troy Tulowitzki       ss 25 .280 .355 .487 138 522 83 146 29 5 23 78 60 104 10 8   117
Jason Giambi*        1b 39 .229 .364 .434 97 297 37 68 14 1 15 48 55 76 1 1   107
Chris Iannetta       c   27 .241 .353 .437 100 323 43 78 17 2 14 52 48 83 0 1   105
Carlos Gonzalez*      cf 24 .270 .335 .459 139 488 72 132 27 7 17 65 44 103 16 5   104
Garrett Atkins       3b 30 .267 .335 .428 133 472 61 126 24 2 16 76 49 79 1 0   97
Matt Murton         rf 28 .276 .341 .417 126 420 59 116 25 2 10 57 39 60 7 2   96
Ian Stewart*        3b 25 .247 .333 .446 145 469 71 116 25 4 20 72 55 132 7 4   101
Darin Holcomb         3b 24 .280 .341 .410 125 483 56 135 29 2 10 58 42 59 4 2   95
Ryan Spilborghs       lf 30 .268 .342 .418 117 328 49 88 18 2 9 47 37 62 8 4   97
Paul McAnulty*        lf 29 .253 .337 .407 112 371 35 94 20 2 11 45 46 86 0 1   93
Mark Bellhorn#        1b 35 .241 .332 .405 80 237 26 57 13 1 8 32 32 63 0 0   91
Matthew Miller       lf 27 .278 .335 .394 136 518 62 144 28 4 8 74 42 76 3 3   89
Dexter Fowler         cf 24 .261 .350 .379 117 417 63 109 22 6 5 35 54 101 20 10   90
Christian Colonel     3b 28 .271 .324 .389 124 442 51 120 24 2 8 57 33 70 4 4   85
Kenny Perez#        1b 28 .267 .321 .377 91 281 27 75 15 2 4 33 23 40 2 1   82
Mike McCoy           ss 29 .257 .339 .345 123 412 59 106 18 3 4 38 52 69 20 6   79
Clint Barmes         2b 31 .259 .307 .413 130 467 56 121 25 4 13 52 25 84 10 7   86
Edwin Bellorin       c   28 .276 .314 .386 74 272 23 75 16 1 4 42 14 36 1 1   81
Michael McKenry       c   25 .244 .321 .380 106 397 40 97 22 1 10 48 41 94 3 4   82
Eric Young Jr.#      2b 25 .257 .328 .357 132 518 84 133 22 6 6 38 47 100 45 18   79
Paul Phillips         c   33 .272 .314 .368 68 228 21 62 11 1 3 21 15 29 0 0   77
Dan Ortmeier#        1b 29 .249 .313 .358 91 341 36 85 15 2 6 44 29 73 9 3   75
Omar Quintanilla*      2b 28 .250 .320 .351 96 248 32 62 14 1 3 21 24 56 2 0   75
Yorvit Torrealba       c   31 .254 .316 .371 77 264 28 67 14 1 5 34 22 51 1 2   79
Christopher Nelson     ss 24 .251 .305 .373 81 327 39 82 18 2 6 43 24 76 9 4   76
Chris Frey*          cf 26 .268 .314 .356 123 410 46 110 19 4 3 33 25 64 12 4   74
Jon Herrera#        ss 25 .265 .325 .342 123 427 54 113 16 4 3 37 36 61 15 7   74
Hector Gomez         ss 22 .244 .281 .369 104 442 48 108 23 4 8 44 20 102 11 7   68
Ryan Harvey         rf 25 .219 .267 .374 100 356 31 78 17 1 12 50 21 114 2 1   65
Sal Fasano           c   38 .223 .282 .346 59 188 15 42 9 1 4 15 10 53 1 0   63

Defensive Projections

Name           CThr 1b     2b     3b     ss     lf     cf     rf    
Helton*            Av/56                                  
Smith*                                  Av/63   Pr/76   Av/63  
Hawpe*                                            Pr/150
Tulowitzki                         Av/71                  
Giambi*            Pr/135                                
Iannetta       Fr                                      
Gonzalez*                                Vg/121 Av/121 Vg/121
Atkins             Fr/153       Fr/93                      
Murton                                 Av/135       Av/135
Stewart*                Fr/121 Av/123       Av/123       Av/123
Holcomb                       Fr/112                      
Spilborghs                               Av/88   Fr/159 Av/132
McAnulty*          Av/192                 Pr/94       Pr/94  
Bellhorn#          Fr/75   Fr/143 Fr/115 Pr/121                
Miller                                 Av/84       Av/84  
Fowler                                       Av/146      
Colonel           Av/125       Fr/133       Fr/79       Fr/79  
Perez#            Fr/74   Pr/126 Pr/146                      
McCoy                   Av/135 Av/103 Av/116 Av/121 Av/121 Av/121
Barmes                 Vg/117       Vg/84                  
Bellorin       Av                                      
McKenry         Vg                                      
Young#                  Vg/145                 Av/145      
Phillips       Av                                      
Ortmeier#          Av/108                 Av/99   Fr/121 Fr/72  
Quintanilla*              Av/106       Av/95                  
Torrealba       Fr                                      
Nelson                             Fr/140                
Frey*                                  Av/95   Av/95   Av/95  
Herrera#                Av/80       Av/107                
Gomez                             Vg/163                
Harvey                                 Av/110       Av/110
Fasano         Fr                                      

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name           PO   EX   VG   AV   FR   PO       COMP 1       COMP 2       COMP 3
SmithSeth       LF   22%  34%  23%  15%  6%    SmithDwight   GabrielsonLen     CombsEarle
HeltonTodd       1B   10%  32%  29%  24%  4%    JoynerWally     GraceMark     OlerudJohn
TulowitzkiTroy   SS   54%  26%  15%  4%  1% CrosettiFrankie   SpeierChris       BellJay
HawpeBrad       RF   13%  31%  24%  21%  11%      DrewJ.D.  CampbellBruce     MondayRick
GonzalezCarlos   CF   23%  27%  33%  15%  2%    LankfordRayGrandersonCurtis   BostonDaryl
GiambiJason     1B   4%  14%  21%  39%  23% KillebrewHarmon   McCoveyWillie   MuellerHeinie
IannettaChris     C   24%  42%  22%  10%  2%      RiceDel     WilsonTom   KellerJerry
MurtonMatt       RF   2%  8%  16%  32%  42%      BerryKen HershbergerMike   WilliamsWalt
AtkinsGarrett     3B   4%  15%  25%  30%  26%      WertDon   DahlgrenBabe       JurakEd
StewartIan       3B   3%  19%  34%  31%  13%    KoskieCorey     TeahenMark     HinskeEric
SpilborghsRyan   LF   2%  8%  12%  27%  51%      HallNoah   CordovaMarty   SpencerShane
HolcombDarin     3B   1%  9%  21%  36%  33%    ShortRick     CypretGreg     BellBuddy
McAnultyPaul     DH   0%  1%  4%  28%  67%    BarkerKevin   WardPreston   TolentinoJose
MillerMatt       LF   0%  3%  4%  15%  78%    JohnsonReed     JamesChrisRobaysMauriceVan
FowlerDexter     CF   2%  6%  27%  43%  21%    JavierStan   LathamChris   CedenoRoger
BellhornMark     1B   2%  2%  6%  28%  63% de la RosaTomas     ClarkTony   SierraRuben
ColonelChristian   3B   0%  3%  7%  23%  67%    KaskoEddie     DuganJoe     ShortRick
BarmesClint     2B   6%  6%  10%  21%  56%  JavierJulian   LansingMike   MartinBilly
BellorinEdwin     C   0%  5%  18%  44%  33%      SmithHal   KluttzClyde     TaylorZack
PerezKenny       1B   0%  0%  1%  9%  90%    SeguiDavid     EstesDoc     DiazAlex
McCoyMike       1B   0%  1%  2%  15%  82%    FloresGil     MormanRuss     WilsonTack
YoungEricJr     2B   1%  4%  11%  30%  54%  LirianoNelson   FigginsChone     CarterJeff
PhillipsPaul     C   0%  3%  13%  46%  38%    SpencerRoy   HemsleyRollie   OrtizJunior
FreyChristopher   CF   0%  1%  5%  21%  73%  GodwinTyrell   CrosbyBubba     ChavezEndy
McKenryMichael     C   0%  3%  13%  41%  42%    TurnerChris   NicholsCarl   BlancoHenry
NelsonChristopher SS   1%  5%  16%  29%  49%  DzurillaMike     LandryTodd     NowakChris
QuintanillaOmar   2B   1%  2%  3%  11%  83%    WilfongRob   EricksonMatt     GreenNick
OrtmeierDan     1B   0%  0%  0%  4%  95%      FoxEric   HolkeWalter   BenzingerTodd
TorrealbaYorvit   C   0%  3%  10%  37%  50%    WilsonDan     CosteChris   MahoneyMike
HerreraJonathan   SS   0%  1%  12%  36%  51%  FonvilleChad   IzturisCesar   MetzgerRoger
GomezHector     SS   0%  0%  2%  12%  86%      HallBill   CosmeCaonabo   SalazarAngel
HarveyRyan       RF   0%  0%  0%  0%  100%  StewartCaleb   WilsonMichael     CarsonMatt
FasanoSal       C   0%  1%  2%  9%  87%  DifeliceMike     BordersPat O’BrienCharlie

Name         .300 BA .375 OBP.500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB
SmithSeth         33%    36%    27%    11%    1%    3%    3%    0%
HeltonTodd         37%    79%    11%    9%    1%    0%    0%    0%
TulowitzkiTroy     22%    22%    37%    12%    3%    7%    21%    0%
HawpeBrad         10%    37%    19%    7%    1%    1%    8%    0%
GonzalezCarlos     12%    7%    16%    3%    0%    19%    2%    1%
GiambiJason         1%    35%    8%    3%    0%    0%    1%    0%
IannettaChris       3%    23%    9%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%
MurtonMatt         19%    10%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
AtkinsGarrett       11%    7%    5%    0%    0%    0%    3%    0%
StewartIan         1%    4%    7%    0%    0%    2%    4%    0%
SpilborghsRyan     14%    12%    5%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HolcombDarin       19%    8%    1%    0%    2%    0%    0%    0%
McAnultyPaul       3%    7%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
MillerMatt         19%    6%    0%    0%    2%    2%    0%    0%
FowlerDexter       6%    16%    0%    0%    0%    9%    0%    6%
BellhornMark       3%    9%    5%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ColonelChristian     13%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BarmesClint         9%    2%    5%    1%    1%    4%    2%    0%
BellorinEdwin       20%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
PerezKenny         14%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
McCoyMike         5%    6%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    5%
YoungEricJr         3%    2%    0%    0%    0%    13%    0%    99%
PhillipsPaul       20%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
FreyChristopher     11%    1%    0%    0%    0%    2%    0%    0%
McKenryMichael       1%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
NelsonChristopher     3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
QuintanillaOmar     6%    4%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
OrtmeierDan         2%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
TorrealbaYorvit     7%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HerreraJonathan     7%    2%    0%    0%    0%    2%    0%    0%
GomezHector         1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
HarveyRyan         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
FasanoSal         1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Ubaldo Jimenez         26   3.98 14 12 34 34   206.0 191   91 16   89 167 118
Aaron Cook           31   4.32   9   9 27 27   166.2 187   80 17   43   74 108
Jason Marquis         31   4.44 11 12 30 30   184.1 194   91 18   68   95 107
Jeff Francis*        29   4.48   7   7 21 21   130.2 143   65 15   40   88 106
Jason Hammel         27   4.53   7   8 37 22   149.0 162   75 16   44 100 104
Jorge de la Rosa*      29   4.68 10 13 32 29   165.1 166   86 19   6 143 101
Jose Contreras         38   4.76   9 11 27 26   151.1 163   80 16   56 102   99
Jhoulys Chacin         22   4.89   9 12 31 26   141.2 148   77 16   63   86   97
Christian Friedrich*    22   4.91   4   5 19 19   88.0   91   48 11   43   70   96
Greg Smith*          26   5.06   5   8 21 21   110.1 117   62 17   43   63   93
Esmil Rogers         24   5.21   7 11 28 27   150.1 170   87 18   61   85   90
Franklin Morales*      24   5.21   5   8 41 17   105.1 108   61 14   63   72   90
Russ Ortiz           36   5.26   4   7 25 16   101.0 114   59 12   49   66   89
Kurt Birkins*        29   5.36   3   5 35 12   82.1   95   49 10   39   55   88
Samuel Deduno         26   5.39   6 10 25 25   133.2 138   80 12   94   91   88
Chaz Roe             23   5.43   4   7 20 20   116.0 132   70 15   48   55   87
Greg Reynolds         24   5.47   2   4 11 11   52.2   62   32   7   19   22   86
Josh Fogg           33   5.53   4   7 29 16   107.1 122   66 18   39   55   85
Adam Eaton           32   5.98   5 11 27 23   134.0 164   89 22   48   72   79
Alan Johnson         26   6.11   6 13 27 26   154.2 196 105 25   60   62   77

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Huston Street         26   3.14   5   3 63   0   63.0   50   22   6   17   71 147
Rafael Betancourt       35   3.38   4   2 63   0   64.0   54   24   6   18   65 142
Taylor Buchholz       28   3.79   5   4 37   3   54.2   54   23   5   14   38 125
Joe Beimel*          33   3.99   3   3 73   0   56.1   59   25   4   21   33 116
Matt Daley           28   4.04   3   2 66   0   64.2   60   29   7   25   59 117
Manuel Corpas         27   4.16   3   3 63   0   62.2   67   29   6   16   41 111
Matt Herges           40   4.20   5   4 56   0   64.1   65   30   6   21   43 114
Joel Peralta         34   4.50   3   3 55   0   68.0   68   34   9   21   53 106
Randy Flores*        34   4.50   1   1 62   0   46.0   51   23   4   17   34 104
Alan Embree*          40   4.67   2   2 52   0   44.1   45   23   5   17   34 101
Matt Belisle         30   4.76   4   5 41 11   102.0 117   54 11   25   61   99
Ryan Speier           30   4.84   2   3 55   0   57.2   61   31   6   28   34   98
Shane Lindsay         25   4.96   2   3 34   0   32.2   30   18   3   28   30   96
Ryan Mattheus         26   4.97   2   3 36   0   38.0   40   21   5   18   27   95
Juan Rincon           31   5.16   3   4 53   0   59.1   59   34   7   29   51   92
Scott Munter         30   5.22   3   5 51   0   58.2   69   34   6   27   25   89

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player         PO     TOP   MID   BOT         COMP 1         COMP 2         COMP 3
StreetHuston     RP     82%  17%  1%  PapelbonJonathan     JenksBobby     OsunaAntonio
BetancourtRafael   RP     73%  26%  1%    HoffmanTrevor     WorrellTodd       HenkeTom
BuchholzTaylor   RP     50%  44%  6%    HaynesHeath       BeckRod     ValdezSergio
JimenezUbaldo     SP     77%  22%  0%      KileDarryl     GubiczaMark       WilsonDon
DaleyMatt       RP     43%  47%  10%      MiceliDan     RobergeBert     AndradeSteve
BeimelJoe       RP     42%  47%  11%      ZerbeChad   MirabellaPaul     EarleyArnold
HergesMatt       RP     40%  42%  18%    BrocailDoug       MesaJose       JonesTodd
CorpasManuel     RP     32%  52%  16%      LewisColby       TamJeff     SantiagoJose
CookAaron       SP     50%  39%  12%        BarrJim   PorterfieldBob     HerbertRay
MarquisJason     SP     47%  43%  10%        CulpRay     OlivaresOmar     HamiltonJoey
FrancisJeff     SP     42%  51%  8%      RedmanMark     HaneyChris     HalamaJohn
PeraltaJoel     RP     20%  56%  24%  St. ClaireRandy       WhiteRick     MeachamRusty
FloresRandy     RP     25%  48%  28%      GroomBuddy       MunozMike       MurphyRob
HammelJason     SP     38%  54%  7%    MendozaRamiro     RaggioBrady     NicholsRod
EmbreeAlan       RP     21%  44%  35%    StantonMike   HoneycuttRick     GroomBuddy
de la RosaJorge   SP     28%  60%  11%    MahlerMickey       LollarTim       LillyTed
BelisleMatt     RP     11%  54%  35%      ArnoldTony       LynchEd       SagerA.J.
ContrerasJose     SP     28%  56%  17%      MorrisJack     CandiottiTom   WilliamsWoody
SpeierRyan       RP     14%  43%  42%    BumsteadMike     GreeneRick     BullardJason
ChacinJhoulys     SP     19%  61%  20%      BloodDarin     SellersJeff   MendozaReynol
FriedrichChristian SP     22%  55%  23%    CapuanoChris       KalitaTim     MyersRandy
LindsayShane     RP     16%  34%  50%      VoylesBrad   CasillaSantiago     BruneyBrian
MattheusRyan     RP     11%  46%  42%      LeeDavid       RyanMatt   EllsworthSteve
SmithGreg       SP     13%  56%  31%      SwanRuss     WatsonAllen   EstradaHoracio
RinconJuan       RP     5%  39%  57%    HarrisReggie     ButcherMike   HoldridgeDavid
RogersEsmil     SP     6%  56%  38%    CummingsSteve     KellySteve     LoiselleRich
MoralesFranklin   SP     2%  37%  61%      PottsMike       CarmanDon   PulsipherBill
MunterScott     RP     6%  35%  59%      WagnerGary       ToddJim     MontagueJohn
OrtizRuss       SP     9%  43%  48%    BurttDennis       GlynnRyan       BenesAlan
DedunoSamuel     SP     5%  47%  47%  CocanowerJaime     LewisDerrick     DeSalvoMatt
BirkinsKurt     SP     2%  30%  68%      WhiteMatt   TejeraMichael     LerchRandy
RoeChaz         SP     5%  46%  49%      PooleJim     EstrellaLeo   MecerodGeorge
ReynoldsGreg     SP     13%  37%  50%      BoggsTommy   HaigwoodDaniel     McDonaldKirk
FoggJosh       SP     8%  33%  59%    EllisRobert     BurttDennis       SmithPete
EatonAdam       SP     1%  20%  79%      DickeyR.A.    NavarroJaime   FernandezJared
JohnsonAlan     SP     0%  14%  86%      AhearnePat   MiddletonKyle     SparksSteve

Player         130 ERA+  100 ERA+  K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9

<1
StreetHuston 77% 99% 96% 27% 72%
BetancourtRafael 66% 97% 85% 24% 69%
BuchholzTaylor 50% 88% 4% 35% 73%
JimenezUbaldo 28% 95% 18% 0% 95%
DaleyMatt 36% 87% 48% 1% 64%
BeimelJoe 35% 81% 1% 6% 81%
HergesMatt 34% 74% 4% 13% 67%
CorpasManuel 25% 79% 1% 34% 74%
CookAaron 18% 70% 1% 32% 64%
MarquisJason 11% 72% 0% 4% 68%
FrancisJeff 9% 68% 2% 8% 55%
PeraltaJoel 15% 64% 11% 12% 45%
FloresRandy 18% 65% 11% 5% 71%
HammelJason 6% 68% 1% 9% 67%
EmbreeAlan 15% 57% 19% 6% 60%
de la RosaJorge 5% 59% 38% 0% 46%
BelisleMatt 9% 52% 1% 40% 59%
ContrerasJose 6% 52% 5% 2% 64%
SpeierRyan 11% 51% 2% 1% 68%
ChacinJhoulys 3% 44% 0% 0% 56%
FriedrichChristia 5% 47% 18% 0% 53%
LindsayShane 16% 50% 52% 0% 85%
MattheusRyan 11% 49% 9% 1% 44%
SmithGreg 1% 36% 0% 1% 19%
RinconJuan 5% 36% 33% 0% 54%
RogersEsmil 0% 24% 0% 0% 49%
MoralesFranklin 1% 26% 1% 0% 39%
MunterScott 4% 29% 0% 1% 76%
OrtizRuss 2% 26% 4% 0% 50%
DedunoSamuel 1% 19% 1% 0% 82%
BirkinsKurt 1% 22% 2% 0% 48%
RoeChaz 0% 17% 0% 0% 35%
ReynoldsGreg 3% 23% 0% 8% 53%
FoggJosh 2% 17% 0% 4% 18%
EatonAdam 0% 5% 1% 2% 13%
JohnsonAlan 0% 1% 0% 0% 10%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name           BA OBP SLG   G   AB     R     H   2B 3B   HR RBI   BB   SO SB CS OPS+
GiambiJason     .277 .401 .518 2176 7316   1243   2025 409 12 444 1441 1389   1566 21 14 140
HeltonTodd     .315 .417 .535 2205 7962   1397   2511 587 41 359 1384 1387   1106 36 31 133
TulowitzkiTroy   .265 .344 .449 2217 8323   1289   2202 415 69 328 1153   988   1684 121 34 104
HawpeBrad     .267 .365 .466 1572 5342   739   1426 304 38 227 903   820   1487 18 34 112
AtkinsGarrett   .275 .340 .432 1358 4875   651   1339 258 14 161 800   488   770 13   6   96
IannettaChris   .231 .344 .410 1253 4037   517   932 198 26 158 624   594   1053   0 13   95

Player         W   L   S   ERA     G   GS   IP     H   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
ContrerasJose   104   104   0 4.73   286   268 1626   1688   180   591   1149   99
CookAaron       136   122   0 4.48   412   381 2414   2776   232   693   1029   106
JimenezUbaldo   206   182   0 4.21   527   525 3159   2940   272   1466   2599   111

All figures in % based on projection playing time

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

 

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees




 

 

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 19, 2009 at 10:09 PM | 28 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. steagles Posted: October 19, 2009 at 10:25 PM (#3358362)
what do other people think of ubaldo jimenez? his fastball, groundball tendencies, and ability to get a strikeout are pretty much exactly what i look for when evaluating a pitcher. he had a K/BB/IP ratio of 198/85/218, which is pretty damn great, but i'm wondering if he can't take the next step and really launch himself into the conversation for best pitcher in baseball.



i've actually been following jimenez since 2005, and i'm just in awe of his progression. that he's come from where he was, and that he's turned into what he's turned into is exactly the reason i'm looking to break into this business.
   2. puck Posted: October 19, 2009 at 11:04 PM (#3358456)
Well, you've been following him; his improvement has been impressive. He works at his game; he's a pretty good fielder and even his hitting seemed to improve.

Jimenez is close. They seem to trust him with high pitch counts and he didn't seem to wear down towards the end of the season, so his ability to go deep into games was a nice boost. NLDS was kind of his season in a nutshell, though over the course the season his games were far more heavily weighted towards the game 4 heights rather than the game 1 implosion. He occasionally loses command.
   3. JJ1986 Posted: October 19, 2009 at 11:10 PM (#3358467)
No projection for Marquis?
   4. puck Posted: October 19, 2009 at 11:12 PM (#3358480)
Interesting comments about O'Dowd's bullpens. This year it sort of blew up on him, save for Huston Street and the unexpected contributions of Matt Daley, and was a serious weakness in the first half. Of the 7 relievers on the NLDS roster (not counting Marquis), 3 were on the opening day roster, but Morales was the #5 starter, and Belisle spent most of the season in AAA after being lousy in April/May.

Or, I guess I could have just said Josh Fogg was 3rd on the team in relief innings.

O'Dowd has some interesting decisions on what to do for 2010. Betancourt was good, but has an expensive option ($5.4 million). Morales was good at times; it seems his control is barely good enough for relief, so it's hard to see him competing for rotation spot at this point. He's sort of the flip side of the Ubaldo Jimenez story; great arm, but he's never gained any consistency or control.
   5. puck Posted: October 19, 2009 at 11:24 PM (#3358516)
Hawpe's projection stinks (.367 / .468, OPS+ of 116). His last 4 seasons OPS+ have been 120, 129, 123, 130 with a low OPS of .879. Is that the effects of being 31? Thank god he has his defense to fall back on.

I don't envy trying to protect most of the players due to their youth. Tulo's projection would have looked great this time last year, now it looks disappointing.

I figured Gonzalez's projection would look something like that. Given that he's always been praised for his toolsiness, might he have turned the corner with the result that he's better than his projection? Your MLE's for his AAA stats in 09 and his actual Rockies stats were pretty close - .359/.520 MLE, .353/.525 for the Rockies.

Ian Stewart's comps are interesting. None of them strike me has having his power.

Finally, Smith's projection is pretty close to what he did this year if you subtract his ridiculous .472 / .574 / .861 line has a PH (47 PA). He didn't face many lefties this year, fwiw, and seemed to have fairly big splits in the minors.
   6. Tom Nawrocki Posted: October 19, 2009 at 11:25 PM (#3358525)
Two of Ubaldo's top three comps died in midcareer, which can't be a good sign.

Dan, does ZIPS take into account when a young player like Gonzalez has such a severe split between his first and second half numbers? Or the better question would be: Is there any evidence that we should expect him to perform, going forward, more like he did in his second half? Gonzalez played like a minor leaguer in the first half and like a Hall of Famer in the second half. I'd presume that bodes well for him, but I certainly haven't studied the issue.
   7. Barnaby Jones Posted: October 19, 2009 at 11:28 PM (#3358542)
I assume it is a mistake that Nelson is treated as a 1b in the ODDIBE/comp section?
   8. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: October 19, 2009 at 11:31 PM (#3358554)
I'm pretty sure that I've seen studies that have looked at 1H/2H splits and found no future predictive value, even broken down by age. Not sure how rigorous those were (there are many potential confounding factors here, not the least of which is selection bias.)

I always find it entertaining to look at crappy veterans' comps, like Adam Eaton's. It's weird to me to see a knuckler on there, though I guess any stat-based approach (unless it relied heavily on WP/PB?) would have trouble picking them out of a crowd.
   9. puck Posted: October 19, 2009 at 11:47 PM (#3358603)
So if Helton hits those numbers (which seem quite attainable, as it looks like it requires around .259/.372/.392 in 1457 AB's), does he sniff the Hall?

His case doesn't look great by advanced stats because there have been so many good hitters in his era. Hall voters may like his avg and his gamer-ness, but 359 HR and 1384 RBI doesn't look impressive for a firstbaseman who played in Coors, and it seems mainstream sportswriters actually over-correct for Coors.
   10. Tom Nawrocki Posted: October 19, 2009 at 11:49 PM (#3358607)
Since Sal Fasano gets a projection, does that he mean he gets projected Major League health insurance, too?
   11. Darren Posted: October 20, 2009 at 12:12 AM (#3358684)
Come on Matt Murton!
   12. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 20, 2009 at 12:25 AM (#3358732)
I'll add Marquis - don't know where he got off to. I'll fix Nelson as well.

Hawpe's projection stinks (.367 / .468, OPS+ of 116). His last 4 seasons OPS+ have been 120, 129, 123, 130 with a low OPS of .879. Is that the effects of being 31?

Hawpe's just not the type that ages well. When his bat speed slows just a tinge, his $H is going to drop like a rock. He was 15 points above his normal as it is.

Dan, does ZIPS take into account when a young player like Gonzalez has such a severe split between his first and second half numbers?

I've never found anything there. Maybe someone else with a different approach has eked something out, but I've found no real value to knowing when, within a season, a player's stats were collected (except, of course, from specific injuries).


I figured Gonzalez's projection would look something like that. Given that he's always been praised for his toolsiness, might he have turned the corner with the result that he's better than his projection? Your MLE's for his AAA stats in 09 and his actual Rockies stats were pretty close - .359/.520 MLE, .353/.525 for the Rockies.


He did as much at improving his projection as anyone could. If memory serves, I had him projected at like a 70 for 2009 after a few pretty bad seasons and now he's projected at 104. It's still too soon to be sure that he's turned the corner (see Corey Patterson or Chris Singleton or others).
   13. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 20, 2009 at 12:26 AM (#3358739)
Since Sal Fasano gets a projection, does that he mean he gets projected Major League health insurance, too?

He does, but the co-pay is 100% of the cost of the care.
   14. The Fallen Reputation of Billy Jo Robidoux Posted: October 20, 2009 at 01:15 AM (#3358858)
de la Rosa with only 6 walks? Please tell me that's an error.
   15. Juan V Posted: October 20, 2009 at 01:21 AM (#3358868)
At first sight, 7962 ABs at 133 OPS+ for a modern first baseman means trouble getting into the HOM, and I guess we will be friendlier to Helton than HOF voters.
   16. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: October 20, 2009 at 01:23 AM (#3358871)
Jimenez will be better than that.
   17. Tom Nawrocki Posted: October 20, 2009 at 01:33 AM (#3358895)
After watching de la Rosa this year, I assumed it was supposed to be 106 walks.
   18. Walt Davis Posted: October 20, 2009 at 02:00 AM (#3358924)
I thought MGL had found some small effect for 2nd half vs. 1st half ... as in "most recent data gets a slightly higher weight" even if you broke it down by half. But it wasn't enough to make any substantial difference -- i.e. it might add/subtract a few points from a projection, not proclaim that Gonzalez has arrived. Plus my memory could be wrong.

he had a K/BB/IP ratio of 198/85/218, which is pretty damn great

I'll call that good. He'll have to get the K/BB into the 3 range to be a real stud I'd think. Based on the projection, that would involve dropping his BB rate by 1/3 which isn't easy.


So if Helton hits those numbers (which seem quite attainable, as it looks like it requires around .259/.372/.392 in 1457 AB's), does he sniff the Hall?

I seriously doubt it. 2500 hits, 350 HR just doesn't cut it in this day and age, especially after making a reasonable adjustment for Coors. Adding to that, he's never finished better than 5th in MVP voting. He made 5 AS games which isn't bad but isn't noteworthy from an HoF perspective. Three GG, generally mediocre team performance, horrible postseason performance (211/303/281). Outside of 2000, he's never led the league in anything but OBP a couple of times.

Coors or no Coors, his 2000 probably deserved more respect. He led the league in BA, OBP, SLG, RBI, hits, total bases and doubles and was 2nd in runs and 3rd in OPS+. But he did finish 5th in the MVP and it is hard to place him ahead of Kent, Bonds or Piazza (Edmonds, yes).

Man, 2000. Those were the days eh? 19 players, AL and NL, qualified for the batting title and posted an OPS of 1000 or better (plus Ellis Burks at 458 PA). In 2009, that was down to 3.
   19. Walt Davis Posted: October 20, 2009 at 02:07 AM (#3358932)
Oh yeah, other stuff ...

Ianetta was the one guy they seemed to lose patience with. I don't know if they've lost it forever or not.

The Rox are in an interesting position. Ideally they'd trade both Atkins and Hawpe. They're reasonably expensive (but not hugely so) and, if you have faith in Stewart, Gonzalez and Smith, pretty superfluous on this team. Hawpe is definitely a "better to trade a year early than a year late" kinda guy and Atkins (it turns out) might have been such a guy last year. I'm not sure how much you get back for either -- nothing dramatic but maybe some nice relief arms.
   20. puck Posted: October 20, 2009 at 02:23 AM (#3358953)
Since you did some of the AA guys, could you also do Robert (Cole) Garner and relievers Matt Reynolds and Alan Johnston* (w/Tulsa last season)? I'd guess with the glut of OF's Garner's not likely to come up, but who knows. I don't know if Reynolds or Johnston are any good, but they sent those guys to the AFL along with Craig Baker of Modesto. (*Not to be confused with the starter Alan Johnson at CSprings in 2009.)

Darin Holcomb seems like he gets a better projection than other Tulsa players relative to his stats and age. Any idea why?

I know I asked Dan before about EY2's BABIP, but this year's projection is even worse than last year's, with a worse K rate. Was his season at the Springs that bad? The projection is worse than his MLE. (It's not that I'm such a fan--his numbers don't look great to me. It's just that there seems to be a high level of enthusiasm among Rockies fans for the guy. He's fast, but I don't think he's going to hit enough to start.)

Lastly, how do you do the defensive ratings, esp. for minor leaguers? The way it's reported around Denver is that EY2's D at 2nd is suspect.
   21. Barnaby Jones Posted: October 20, 2009 at 03:22 PM (#3359315)
OK, Marquis is added and Nelson fixed.


Thanks, Dan. Would it be possible to see a set of SS comps for Nelson? I'm curious what other guys like him turned out like (though if Chris Nowak could play the middle infield, he might have had a an actual career).
   22. tomdaddydollars Posted: October 22, 2009 at 11:01 PM (#3362739)

Ianetta was the one guy they seemed to lose patience with. I don't know if they've lost it forever or not.


Only until Torrealba's BABIP returns to normal levels, rather than the .390 it was in the second half of '09. When they're both hitting .250, Iannetta is clearly a better player because of his power and walks. Even when Torrealba is hitting .290 and Iannetta is hitting .228, that point is debatable.
   23. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 22, 2009 at 11:15 PM (#3362747)
If you don't mind, Dan, could you run a projection for Daniel Mayora?
   24. BobbyS Posted: October 27, 2009 at 08:58 PM (#3367852)
I don't envy trying to protect most of the players due to their youth. Tulo's projection would have looked great this time last year, now it looks disappointing.

Absolutely agreed. His numbers seem slightly lower than I expected...all the way across the board. But hey, he'll strike out slightly less as well. I understand an age argument for Hawpe (though I didn't expect it to be so dramatic, 30/31 isn't that aged), but figured Tulo would look a little more impressive seeing as he hasn't entered his 'prime' offensive years.

Mostly, I don't get how Eric Young Jr. gets worse projections (even if only slightly) than last years, when he performed better, overall, in AAA this season than in AA last. Did his call up numbers hurt him that much?

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
cardsfanboy
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Page rendered in 0.8201 seconds
66 querie(s) executed