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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, October 09, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Detroit Tigers

The 2009 edition of the Tigers will sadly be remembered for losing the division in such a dramatic fashion.  As bitter a taste as the last week of the season leaves, the team should largely return in 2010, and based on what information we have right now, be the slight favorite in the division.

This could change in the offseason, however, depending on what the Twins do.  I don’t think the Sox have enough offense to go into the season higher than 3rd, but the Twins have the new stadium revenues coming in next year and could choose to make a major acquisition in addition to extending Mauer.  I’m not sure if they actually will (in fact, I kind of doubt it), but the Twins are an easier team to upgrade than this Tiger team.

It also remains to be seen if the Tigers have the money this offseason to be aggressive - someone like John Lackey would be perfect most offseasons.  With Michigan’s economy being hard hit and Detroit in particular in so much trouble that Coinstar machines could start reimbursing customers for their change jars in house deeds, the Tigers very well might go with what they have in ‘10.  The team does have some depth in the offense to be able to handle emergencies, but they don’t really have the prospects to make any big trades, so it may be wallet or nothing.

I do have to apologize in advance if I messed up Fu-Te Ni’s name.  I do not know if he goes by western convention or not for use of his name, so I don’t really know if he would prefer Fu-Te Ni or Ni Fu-Te.

Offensive Projections

Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Miguel Cabrera       1b 27 .305 .376 .536 159 610 91 186 37 1 34 110 68 120 4 2   141
Magglio Ordonez       rf 36 .300 .364 .459 130 490 63 147 29 2 15 73 50 73 2 2   119
Carlos Guillen#      lf 34 .276 .355 .464 106 388 57 107 23 4 14 56 47 69 7 4   117
Curtis Granderson*    cf 29 .257 .333 .465 150 587 94 151 28 11 24 60 65 139 16 4   111
Ryan Raburn         lf 29 .266 .332 .470 125 349 53 93 19 2 16 51 33 84 8 4   111
Placido Polanco       2b 34 .292 .338 .398 126 520 72 152 28 3 7 52 30 36 5 2   96
Aubrey Huff*        1b 33 .260 .323 .431 143 531 68 138 33 2 18 82 49 88 1 3   100
Marcus Thames         lf 33 .238 .296 .467 102 323 42 77 15 1 19 48 27 92 1 2   100
Mike Hessman         3b 32 .223 .309 .438 122 448 52 100 20 2 24 61 49 159 3 3   97
Jeffrey Larish*      1b 27 .236 .322 .380 123 424 47 100 20 1 13 48 51 116 3 3   87
Ryan Strieby         1b 24 .240 .310 .387 110 421 43 101 19 2 13 52 39 110 1 2   85
Scott Sizemore       2b 25 .253 .316 .370 105 427 53 108 23 3 7 36 36 82 12 5   83
Brandon Inge         3b 33 .226 .308 .390 136 461 56 104 18 2 18 61 45 132 4 4   86
Don Kelly*          cf 30 .262 .319 .354 120 393 50 103 18 3 4 36 30 53 12 4   80
Alex Avila*          c   23 .239 .309 .372 100 352 36 84 18 1 9 41 36 86 1 1   82
Ramon Santiago#      ss 30 .257 .318 .374 89 257 32 66 11 2 5 26 18 51 3 3   84
Clete Thomas*        rf 26 .247 .312 .363 128 482 59 119 23 3 9 45 43 127 25 10   78
Maxim St. Pierre       c   30 .256 .299 .377 59 207 20 53 10 0 5 24 11 31 0 0   79
Mike Gosse*          ss 24 .263 .298 .363 75 278 32 73 14 1 4 41 14 34 2 3   76
Matt Treanor         c   34 .242 .313 .333 39 120 11 29 5 0 2 14 11 25 0 0   74
Jeff Frazier         dh 27 .260 .293 .355 123 484 46 126 23 1 7 48 22 71 2 3   73
Gerald Laird         c   30 .235 .298 .346 109 361 44 85 20 1 6 33 28 69 4 1   72
William Rhymes*      2b 27 .259 .306 .331 121 478 54 124 17 4 3 39 31 70 15 6   71
Brent Clevlen         rf 26 .224 .287 .362 128 464 50 104 19 3 13 48 38 150 6 2   72
Casper Wells         rf 25 .222 .293 .370 93 351 38 78 16 3 10 35 27 108 9 7   76
Michael Hollimon#      3b 28 .220 .290 .354 80 305 37 67 14 3 7 29 29 94 5 3   71
Maxwell Leon#        lf 26 .244 .301 .323 89 316 34 77 12 2 3 28 25 69 8 3   67
Wilkin Ramirez       lf 24 .223 .277 .355 129 488 58 109 17 4 13 43 33 164 25 9   67
Dusty Ryan           c   25 .214 .284 .340 86 294 27 63 11 1 8 32 26 102 1 1   66
Adam Everett         ss 33 .231 .284 .324 91 281 34 65 15 1 3 35 19 44 4 2   63
Audy Ciriaco         ss 23 .233 .264 .327 127 480 49 112 18 3 7 45 19 104 10 6   57
Brent Dlugach         ss 27 .219 .265 .313 103 384 36 84 17 2 5 31 23 120 4 4   54
Dane Sardinha         c   31 .207 .251 .321 73 237 20 49 10 1 5 23 13 69 1 0   52
Cale Iorg           ss 24 .204 .251 .297 122 481 46 98 17 2 8 34 26 161 12 8   46

Defensive Projections

Name           CThr 1b     2b     3b     ss     lf     cf     rf    
Cabrera           Av/106       Pr/132                      
Ordonez                                           Av/85  
Guillen#          Av/122       Pr/121 Pr/131 Av/136            
Granderson*                                    Av/100      
Raburn                 Pr/138 Fr/116       Vg/94   Av/94   Av/94  
Polanco                 Vg/55                            
Huff*            Fr/84                                  
Thames             Fr/166                 Pr/166            
Hessman           Av/73       Av/73                      
Larish*            Av/88       Pr/105                      
Strieby           Vg/113                 Av/113            
Sizemore                 Av/173                            
Inge           Av             Vg/93       Fr/103            
Kelly*            Av/101 Fr/101 Av/101 Pr/121 Av/70   Av/70   Av/70  
Avila*        Vg                                      
Santiago#                Av/97       Av/97                  
Thomas*                                Av/92   Fr/165 Av/92  
St. Pierre       Vg                                      
Gosse*                      Av/143 Fr/143                
Treanor         Fr                                      
Frazier                                 Fr/136       Fr/136
Laird         Vg                                      
Rhymes*                Av/121       Fr/145                
Clevlen                                 Vg/159 Fr/138 Vg/159
Wells                                   Av/117 Fr/216 Av/117
Hollimon#                Av/111 Av/124 Fr/136                
Leon#            Av/70   Fr/164 Fr/164 Pr/164 Av/70            
Ramirez                                 Vg/198            
Ryan           Av                                      
Everett                           Vg/113                
Ciriaco                           Av/193                
Dlugach                           Av/158                
Sardinha       Fr   Av/134                                
Iorg                             Vg/139                

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name           PO   EX   VG   AV   FR   PO       COMP 1       COMP 2       COMP 3
CabreraMiguel     1B   58%  33%  6%  3%  1%    BagwellJeff   ThomasFrank     WatsonBob
OrdonezMagglio   RF   18%  38%  24%  15%  5%    FurilloCarl     KalineAl       SmithAl
GuillenCarlos     LF   20%  26%  21%  20%  12%    GalanAugie   HintonChuck     RainesTim
GrandersonCurtis   CF   39%  27%  22%  9%  3%    MosebyLloyd   van SlykeAndy   BeltranCarlos
RaburnRyan       LF   17%  22%  22%  24%  16%    MartinJerry   AgbayaniBenny     BladesRay
PolancoPlacido   2B   14%  17%  23%  27%  19%    JohnsonDon   RojasCookieGrudzielanekMark
HuffAubrey       1B   1%  7%  12%  36%  44%  MartinezTino ChamblissChris     AbadAndy
ThamesMarcus     DH   3%  7%  10%  34%  46%  BalboniSteve     DavisGlenn     OliverGene
HessmanMike     3B   6%  13%  15%  26%  41%    HiattPhil     RaderDoug     PalmerDean
SizemoreScott     2B   2%  4%  10%  28%  57%    BensonSteve GustineFrankie     BurkeChris
LarishJeff       1B   0%  0%  2%  18%  80%    CareyPaul     MinorDamon   WardPreston
KellyDon       CF   2%  4%  14%  36%  45%  MartinezDave     RedmanTike   PrietoChris
SantiagoRamon     SS   1%  7%  28%  40%  25%  MirandaWilly   StockerKevin GuzmanCristian
StriebyRyan     1B   0%  0%  1%  13%  86%    VitielloJoe   PeoplesDanny     MormanRuss
IngeBrandon     3B   2%  6%  9%  19%  64%  PetrocelliRico     RyanConnie       SmithAl
St. PierreMaxim   C   0%  7%  19%  42%  32%      SmithHal     HillJason     CosteChris
ThomasClete     RF   2%  1%  1%  4%  92%  TuckerMichael   FranconaTito   MackowiakRob
AvilaAlex       C   1%  4%  18%  47%  30%  DerryberryTim   WillardJerry   HelfandEric
GosseMike       SS   1%  2%  9%  30%  57%  ReynoldsCraig     YardBruce   WilsonEnrique
RhymesWilliam     2B   0%  0%  1%  8%  91%    RemyJerry AndersonMarlon     InglettJoe
TreanorMatt       C   0%  3%  6%  37%  55%    TremieChris     BerresRay McCulloughClyde
FrazierJeff     DH   0%  0%  0%  1%  99%  CastellanoJohn   EylwardMike       BelkTim
LairdGerald       C   0%  2%  9%  31%  58%  HemsleyRollie     SpohrerAl     WilsonDan
ClevlenBrent     RF   0%  0%  0%  1%  99%    KrauseScott   BetzsoldJim     VentoMike
WellsCasper     CF   0%  0%  2%  13%  85%    SadlerRay     KellyKenny   HermansenChad
RamirezWilkin     LF   0%  0%  0%  1%  99%ValderramaCarlos   BrinkleyDante     HillJamar
LeonMaxwell     LF   0%  0%  0%  1%  99%    ScottTony     ClarkDougValderramaCarlos
HollimonMichael   3B   1%  1%  1%  4%  93%    KuzmicCraig   PerezSantiago   MoronkoJeff
RyanDusty       C   0%  0%  1%  12%  87%  McGriffTerry     PryorBuddy     ChitiHarry
EverettAdam     SS   0%  0%  1%  9%  89%      BoleyJoe     PaganJose   McDonaldJohn
CiriacoAudy     SS   0%  0%  0%  3%  96%  LozadoWillie   CedenoRonny   CastilloRuben
SardinhaDane     C   0%  0%  0%  1%  99%  CharlesFrank   MoellerChad   HundleyRandy
DlugachBrent     SS   0%  0%  0%  1%  98%    MillerMike   ShaddyChris   KlassenDanny
IorgCale       SS   0%  0%  0%  0%  100%  LozadoWillie     BasakChris   KutcherRandy

Name         .300 BA .375 OBP.500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB
CabreraMiguel       58%    51%    80%    49%    15%    0%    70%    0%
OrdonezMagglio     51%    34%    14%    9%    3%    0%    1%    0%
GuillenCarlos       23%    27%    21%    13%    0%    4%    2%    0%
GrandersonCurtis     6%    7%    21%    8%    3%    48%    22%    1%
RaburnRyan         15%    9%    27%    9%    0%    0%    3%    0%
PolancoPlacido     39%    8%    2%    1%    2%    1%    0%    0%
HuffAubrey         8%    3%    6%    1%    8%    0%    4%    0%
ThamesMarcus       3%    1%    24%    3%    0%    0%    4%    0%
HessmanMike         1%    1%    12%    1%    0%    0%    20%    0%
SizemoreScott       3%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
LarishJeff         0%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
KellyDon           9%    3%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
SantiagoRamon       7%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
StriebyRyan         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
IngeBrandon         1%    1%    3%    1%    0%    0%    4%    0%
St. PierreMaxim     11%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ThomasClete         3%    2%    1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    31%
AvilaAlex         1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
GosseMike         11%    1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
RhymesWilliam       4%    0%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
TreanorMatt         7%    6%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
FrazierJeff         4%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
LairdGerald         1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ClevlenBrent       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
WellsCasper         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
RamirezWilkin       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    23%
LeonMaxwell         2%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HollimonMichael     1%    1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
RyanDusty         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
EverettAdam         1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CiriacoAudy         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
SardinhaDane       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
DlugachBrent       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
IorgCale           0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Justin Verlander       27   3.90 17 10 34 34   219.1 200   95 21   75 217 118
Edwin Jackson         26   4.28 13 10 34 34   201.2 201   96 25   82 142 107
Jarrod Washburn*      35   4.59 10   9 28 27   166.2 171   85 24   56   90 100
Rick Porcello         21   4.89 11 11 29 29   151.0 167   82 21   55   73   95
Jeremy Bonderman       27   5.12   5   6 21 13   89.2   99   51 13   35   61   90
Armando Galarraga       28   5.28   9 11 30 28   158.2 166   93 27   74 104   87
Nate Robertson*        32   5.46   5   7 31 19   117.0 136   71 16   51   77   84
Eddie Bonine         29   5.48   6   9 25 22   131.1 159   80 20   33   51   84
Alfredo Figaro         25   5.56   6   8 22 18   100.1 122   62 11   50   55   83
Jon Kibler*          23   5.58   7 10 26 26   143.2 162   89 18   77   62   82
Brooks Brown         24   5.73   8 12 26 25   132.0 160   84 14   82   56   80
Josh Rainwater         25   5.81   5   7 35 12   88.1 105   57 10   54   44   80
Ruddy Lugo           30   6.04   7 12 34 19   114.2 132   77 18   66   57   76
Luis Marte           23   6.17   5   9 19 18   97.2 115   67 19   44   54   75
Dontrelle Willis*      28   6.31   5   9 21 20   102.2 122   72 15   68   59   73
Ryan Ketchner*        28   6.33   4   7 18 15   81.0 106   57 14   32   43   73
Duane Below*          24   7.21   3   7 16 16   68.2   87   55 13   58   47   64

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Brandon Lyon         30   3.84   6   4 66   0   70.1   69   30   7   24   46 118
Bobby Seay*          32   4.06   3   2 64   0   51.0   48   23   5   21   43 111
Ryan Perry           23   4.42   1   1 64   0   77.1   74   38   9   46   72 104
Fu Te Ni*            27   4.50   2   1 61   0   64.0   63   32   9   26   45 102
Zach Miner           28   4.67   7   6 51   9   108.0 114   56 12   51   66   99
Fernando Rodney       33   4.71   3   3 56   0   57.1   52   30   7   35   55   99
Robert Weinhardt       24   4.78   2   2 36   0   49.0   49   26   5   28   38   97
Clay Rapada*          29   4.80   3   3 53   0   54.1   58   29   5   29   38   97
Freddy Dolsi         27   4.90   4   4 52   0   60.2   68   33   6   32   31   94
Joel Zumaya           25   5.06   3   3 33   0   37.1   37   21   5   26   32   91
Casey Fien           26   5.31   3   3 50   0   61.0   66   36 10   24   46   87
Cody Satterwhite       23   5.65   3   4 29   0   36.2   39   23   5   26   26   82
Lester Oliveros       22   5.68   2   3 31   0   44.1   49   28   7   25   31   82
Zachary Simons         25   5.83   3   5 45   0   63.1   68   41   8   44   41   79

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player         PO     TOP   MID   BOT         COMP 1         COMP 2         COMP 3
LyonBrandon     RP     38%  53%  10%      TerryScott     BradfordChad     ValdezSergio
VerlanderJustin   SP     72%  27%  1%    PascualCamilo   BlackwellEwell     ClemensRoger
SeayBobby       RP     29%  53%  18% ChristiansenJason     McElroyChuck     EmbreeAlan
JacksonEdwin     SP     48%  48%  4%      GrossKevin   MartinezRamon     MillerWade
PerryRyan       RP     16%  57%  27%    BukvichRyan     BruneyBrian     KrawczykRay
NiFu-Te         RP     16%  52%  32%    MarchokChris       GalloMike     BrewerBilly
WashburnJarrod   SP     24%  59%  17%      BlackBud     KnepperBob     FlanaganMike
MinerZach       RP     8%  60%  32%    PufferBrandon     RiveraSaul   BatistaMiguel
RodneyFernando   RP     12%  45%  43%    DeLuciaRich     StoddardTim       FarmerEd
RapadaClay       RP     12%  47%  41%  LovingierKevin       GlynnEd     HamulackTim
WeinhardtRobert   RP     16%  43%  41%      SmithLee     RiveraSaul     SempriniJohn
PorcelloRick     SP     14%  60%  26%      CookAaron     RomanickRon   CrawfordSteve
DolsiFreddy     RP     6%  42%  51%      RyanMatt       GreenSean     GardnerMike
BumpNate       SP     15%  44%  41%    RasmussenEric     MilackiBob     CorpasManuel
ZumayaJoel       RP     12%  38%  50%      VoylesBrad     CammackEric     BruneyBrian
BondermanJeremy   SP     11%  51%  38%    UlloaEnmanuel     ParrisSteve   BankheadScott
GalarragaArmando   SP     3%  46%  51%    JohnsonJason     OrtizRamon       ArmasTony
FienCasey       RP     4%  33%  63%    HoytLa Marr       KohnShawn     VerasDario
BonineEddie     SP     4%  38%  58%      WootenGreg     TowersJosh     SilvaCarlos
RobertsonNate     SP     4%  37%  59%      BoltonTom   McWilliamsLarry     KeislerRandy
FigaroAlfredo     SP     3%  36%  61%    WestbrookJake   McDowellRoger     ChestnutTroy
KiblerJonathan   SP     1%  30%  69%WojciechowskiSteve     FloresRandy     AllenHarold
SatterwhiteCody   RP     3%  22%  75%      BurchMatt     NealBlaine     BarryKevin
OliverosLester   RP     3%  26%  71%      AllenWyatt     SessionsDoug       BurchMatt
BrownBrooks     SP     1%  20%  79%    FulchinoJeff     LaxtonBrett   CocanowerJaime
RainwaterJosh     SP     0%  13%  87%  DelacruzEulogio       AckerJim     BockusRandy
SimonsZachary     RP     0%  15%  84%    MarquezJeff     NealBlaine     ValdezCarlos
LugoRuddy       SP     0%  14%  86%      GlynnRyan   WehrmeisterDave     ManuelBarry
MarteLuis       SP     0%  12%  88%      CrouchMatt KlingenbeckScott     SnyderJohn
KetchnerRyan     SP     0%  12%  88%    PettyjohnAdam   RheineckerJohn       CyrEric
WillisDontrelle   SP     0%  8%  92%      BirtsasTim     MossDamian     GeorgeChris
BelowDuane       SP     0%  3%  97%      HappJames     PollackChris       AndraJeff

Player         130 ERA+  100 ERA+  K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9

<1
LyonBrandon 31% 87% 1% 6% 72%
VerlanderJustin 29% 91% 82% 2% 80%
SeayBobby 29% 76% 35% 1% 83%
JacksonEdwin 9% 75% 2% 0% 34%
PerryRyan 12% 61% 59% 0% 59%
NiFu-Te 12% 54% 4% 1% 36%
WashburnJarrod 3% 50% 0% 3% 22%
MinerZach 5% 53% 1% 0% 58%
RodneyFernando 9% 50% 70% 0% 52%
RapadaClay 8% 43% 6% 0% 71%
WeinhardtRobert 11% 51% 15% 0% 58%
PorcelloRick 1% 36% 0% 1% 28%
DolsiFreddy 4% 42% 0% 0% 75%
BumpNate 3% 31% 0% 4% 67%
ZumayaJoel 8% 41% 40% 0% 44%
BondermanJeremy 2% 31% 2% 1% 25%
GalarragaArmando 0% 14% 0% 0% 9%
FienCasey 2% 25% 7% 2% 24%
BonineEddie 0% 14% 0% 29% 21%
RobertsonNate 0% 13% 2% 0% 35%
FigaroAlfredo 0% 12% 0% 0% 63%
KiblerJonathan 0% 6% 0% 0% 38%
SatterwhiteCody 3% 19% 9% 0% 49%
OliverosLester 2% 17% 5% 0% 35%
BrownBrooks 0% 4% 0% 0% 67%
RainwaterJosh 0% 8% 0% 0% 59%
SimonsZachary 0% 9% 1% 0% 47%
LugoRuddy 0% 2% 0% 0% 21%
MarteLuis 0% 3% 0% 0% 5%
KetchnerRyan 0% 2% 0% 1% 13%
WillisDontrelle 0% 1% 0% 0% 21%
BelowDuane 0% 0% 2% 0% 15%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name           BA OBP SLG   G   AB     R     H   2B 3B   HR RBI   BB   SO SB CS OPS+
CabreraMiguel   .295 .367 .508 2794 10656   1556   3148 619 23 535 1821 1170   2186 65 36 130
OrdonezMagglio   .305 .366 .492 2285 8631   1271   2632 529 27 344 1466   819   1129 101 60 122
GrandersonCurtis .254 .329 .450 1761 6829   1083   1737 315 127 256 642   737   1658 165 49 104
GuillenCarlos   .280 .353 .443 1619 5837   907   1636 330 62 165 813   654   1025 96 61 110
PolancoPlacido   .296 .341 .405 2081 8048   1164   2381 410 43 126 818   460   578 94 40   96

Player         W   L   S   ERA     G   GS   IP     H   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
VerlanderJustin   232   180   0 4.19   518   517 3288   3091   351   1210   3165   109
JacksonEdwin     177   164   0 4.52   531   495 2971   3026   403   1285   2128   101

All figures in % based on projection playing time

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

Defensive projections consist of a range figure (again, tiered from EX to PO) and an error figure
(errors as a percentage of league-average, higher is worse)

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 09, 2009 at 04:34 PM | 15 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. J. Michael Neal Posted: October 09, 2009 at 06:26 PM (#3346539)
One of the things that's interesting to watch is whether Illitch sets his budget by team, or both together. If his goal is just that his sports empire should break even in down times, the Tigers can afford to lose a lot of money. Owning the Red Wings with a salary cap provides for some nice cash flow.
   2. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: October 09, 2009 at 06:28 PM (#3346541)
Miggy Cabriggy to the Hally fo' shiggy.
   3. Steve M. Posted: October 09, 2009 at 08:51 PM (#3346724)
I'm guessing Porcello obliterates that projection.
   4. steagles Posted: October 09, 2009 at 10:52 PM (#3346868)
is ryan raburn really that decent?
   5. steagles Posted: October 09, 2009 at 10:53 PM (#3346871)
Miggy Cabriggy to the Hally fo' shiggy.
on the field, i don't think there's any doubt anymore. the guy runs with a stick up his ass, and apparently he's got a bit of a brett myers streak, but dude can hit.
   6. steagles Posted: October 09, 2009 at 10:58 PM (#3346877)
Player             PO       TOP   MID   BOT       
JacksonEdwin       SP       48
%   48%    4



considering where jackson's career was three years ago, this is awesome. i like his projected line alot, too. there's gonna be some regression next year, for sure, but i think this ZiPS projection nails it. i wasn't really expecting that.
   7. steagles Posted: October 09, 2009 at 11:00 PM (#3346880)
Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+
 
Dontrelle Willis*         28   6.31   5   9  21  20   102.2  122   72  15   68   59   73 
easy come, easy go.


i will say that i think willis has one more great season in him. he's too athletic, and he was way too good for him to just completely fall off a table.
   8. DCA Posted: October 09, 2009 at 11:07 PM (#3346881)
Willis could always hit. Maybe he gets on the Ankiel/Loewen career path.
   9. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: October 10, 2009 at 12:00 AM (#3346941)
Can we get a projection for Cabrera's BAC?
   10. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: October 10, 2009 at 02:01 AM (#3347111)
Can we get a projection for Cabrera's BAC?

It's right there, .305.
   11. jayjay Posted: October 10, 2009 at 03:54 AM (#3347382)
Adam Loewen hit .236/.340/.355 in the Florida State League. Is there room somewhere in there for optimism that he is actually on that career path?
   12. lonestarball Posted: October 12, 2009 at 02:48 AM (#3349251)

i will say that i think willis has one more great season in him. he's too athletic, and he was way too good for him to just completely fall off a table.


When was he that good? He never had great K rates, always walked too many guys, and his two seasons with quality FIPs were largely the result of unsustainable HR/FB rates.
   13. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: October 12, 2009 at 03:00 AM (#3349258)
#4: i'm not sure why the error rate for raburn@3b is that low, but - yeah. (his #s benefited this year from heavy platooning, but he's quite useful.)
   14. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: October 13, 2009 at 09:26 PM (#3351293)
When was he that good? He never had great K rates, always walked too many guys, and his two seasons with quality FIPs were largely the result of unsustainable HR/FB rates.

In his first two full seasons, Willis posted a 2.41 bb/9 and a 2.66 k/bb ratio. The walk rate was superb and the k/bb ratio was pretty good.

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