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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, December 14, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Florida Marlins

Some years ago, I reach a translation of a French short story, the author and name of which eludes me at this moment.  It was also later adapted into a short 20th-century opera, but again, the composer escapes me at this moment.

In the story, the protagonist is jailed as part of the Spanish Inquisition.  The man had endured every kind of torture that the Inquisitor could throw at him.  One night, a man came and told the hero that he was there to help him escape.  So, the escape attempt happened and just as the prisoner thinks he’s successfully escaped, the man who came to help him was in fact the Inquisitor and had set the whole scenario up.  At that point, the man lost the will to live because to have hope and have it taken away from him was the cruelest punishment of all.

So, what does this have to do with the Florida Marlins?  Well, fans of the Marlins are part of a baseball version of this scenario.  I would argue that Marlin fans have been treated even more cruelly than Expos fans.  Expos fans saw their franchise undermined at every opportunity and razed and then the franchise was gone for good.  For fans of the Fish, they get to be abused continually, knowing ahead of time that every success of the franchise will be short-lived and any happiness eventually pulled away from them.  And that it will continue, year-after-year, under the current ownership.

The Marlins, given an ownership willing to invest in the team, have a lot of talent.  They have a player who may very well be the best player in baseball over the next 10 years.  Some decent supporting cast in the offense and some high-upside hitting prospects.  Josh Johnson was healthy, throwing 209 innings, and Ricky Nolasco had one of the best 5.06 ERA seasons around.  But Marlin fans still have no reason to believe that they’re seeing the start of something rather than the end of something.  Even Ramirez’s extremely reasonable 6-year, $70 million contract doesn’t necessarily mean that he’ll be a Marlin for the rest of the contract.  The Marlins continuing to win 85-90 games relies on Beinfest and Hill continuing to spin straw into gold faster than Jeff Loria can give it away, which is a very difficult task.

Offensive Projections

Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Hanley Ramirez       ss 26 .320 .393 .537 152 596 115 191 40 4 27 84 67 107 36 11   144
Nick Johnson*        1b 31 .279 .423 .431 86 290 48 81 18 1 8 42 66 64 2 2   128
Dan Uggla           2b 30 .246 .342 .462 144 537 89 132 31 2 27 78 73 150 3 2   111
Chris Coghlan*        lf 25 .287 .358 .413 142 554 83 159 31 6 9 64 56 90 18 6   104
Cody Ross           cf 29 .262 .322 .473 133 442 58 116 29 2 20 70 33 105 4 1   107
Gaby Sanchez         1b 26 .272 .346 .416 122 430 61 117 24 1 12 59 46 74 7 4   101
Jorge Cantu         1b 28 .271 .327 .434 132 502 62 136 32 1 16 76 38 89 2 1   100
Logan Morrison*      1b 22 .265 .351 .403 108 407 53 108 25 2 9 53 53 83 7 4   100
John Lindsey         1b 33 .253 .327 .411 127 443 52 112 23 1 15 71 38 105 0 1   94
John Baker*          c   29 .255 .336 .388 107 353 50 90 21 1 8 45 40 87 1 1   92
Ronny Paulino         c   29 .258 .322 .390 96 310 36 80 15 1 8 43 29 67 1 1   88
Jorge Jimenez*        3b 25 .269 .325 .365 121 469 48 126 23 2 6 57 32 70 2 3   83
Dave Matranga         3b 33 .237 .329 .362 86 257 32 61 10 2 6 25 31 73 4 2   83
Cameron Maybin       cf 23 .243 .322 .354 132 477 67 116 20 6 7 41 54 141 13 5   79
Brett Carroll         rf 27 .239 .296 .408 117 309 42 74 16 3 10 39 22 85 2 3   85
Alfredo Amezaga#      cf 32 .264 .319 .353 96 258 32 68 11 3 2 23 20 39 8 4   78
Wes Helms           3b 34 .252 .305 .376 121 242 23 61 13 1 5 34 16 61 0 1   79
Michael Stanton       rf 20 .217 .294 .389 133 511 57 111 22 3 20 66 50 191 2 3   79
John Raynor         lf 26 .243 .313 .341 119 449 66 109 20 3 6 32 41 134 24 8   73
Matt Dominguez       3b 20 .236 .298 .358 124 466 49 110 25 1 10 53 38 115 1 0   73
Bryan Petersen*      lf 24 .250 .314 .351 130 484 61 121 17 4 8 47 44 108 12 10   76
Jai Miller           rf 25 .220 .297 .362 119 414 47 91 19 2 12 41 43 146 9 4   74
Andy Gonzalez         ss 28 .228 .317 .319 110 360 38 82 13 1 6 33 45 97 5 3   70
Scott Cousins*        cf 25 .232 .287 .361 114 435 47 101 22 5 8 49 31 119 15 7   70
Emilio Bonifacio#      3b 25 .251 .299 .318 138 538 81 135 18 6 2 37 38 119 23 11   64
Brett Hayes         c   26 .239 .281 .330 99 339 32 81 14 1 5 35 19   8 2 2   62
Gookie Dawkins       ss 31 .228 .281 .319 106 386 39 88 18 1 5 30 25 104 7 5   59

Defensive Projections

Name           CThr 1b     2b     3b     ss     lf     cf     rf    
Ramirez                           Av/105                
Johnson*          Fr/118                                
Uggla                   Fr/109                            
Coghlan*                Av/148 Av/148       Fr/125            
Ross                                   Av/100 Av/74   Av/100
Sanchez           Av/96       Pr/143                      
Cantu             Av/106 Pr/128 Pr/128                      
Morrison*          Fr/123                                
Lindsey           Av/104                 Fr/104            
Baker*        Fr                                      
Paulino         Av                                      
Jimenez*          Fr/112       Fr/129                      
Matranga                 Fr/91   Av/91   Fr/91                  
Maybin                                 Vg/139 Vg/139 Vg/139
Carroll                                 Av/78   Pr/217 Av/78  
Amezaga#          Av/85   Fr/85   Fr/85   Av/85   Av/100 Av/135      
Helms             Av/145       Fr/106                      
Stanton                                 Vg/167 Av/167 Vg/167
Raynor                                 Av/130 Av/130 Av/130
Dominguez                     Av/110                      
Petersen*                                Av/144 Av/170 Av/144
Miller                                 Vg/161 Vg/161 Vg/161
Gonzalez                 Fr/120 Fr/120 Fr/120 Av/120 Fr/120 Av/120
Cousins*                                Av/151 Av/157 Av/151
Bonifacio#              Av/140 Av/125 Fr/136 Av/136 Av/136      
Hayes         Av                                      
Dawkins                 Vg/94   Av/120 Pr/102                

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name           PO   EX   VG   AV   FR   PO       COMP 1       COMP 2       COMP 3
RamirezHanley     SS   98%  1%  1%  0%  0%    RipkenCal   TrammellAlan     CroninJoe
JohnsonNick     1B   22%  48%  20%  9%  1%  WeintraubPhil     TolmanTim   GambleOscar
CoghlanChris     LF   5%  20%  23%  29%  24%    GladdenDan   BochteBruce     FordCurt
UgglaDan       2B   42%  22%  17%  13%  6%  JohnsonDavey     PalmerDean   ThompsonRobby
RossCody       CF   24%  25%  31%  17%  4%    LudwickRyan   DevereauxMike   HunterTorii
SanchezGaby     1B   2%  10%  15%  40%  33%      CoxSteve     JohnsonRon     NymanChris
CantuJorge       1B   2%  7%  15%  42%  35% LancellottiRick     SmithBrick   StapletonDave
MorrisonLogan     1B   0%  3%  13%  45%  38%    PerryGerald     BrownMike     LoneyJames
LindseyJohn     1B   0%  5%  8%  28%  59%  MontanezWillie     DropoWalt     MormanRuss
BakerJohn       C   4%  21%  32%  33%  10%    DempseyRick     GibbsJake     BandoChris
PaulinoRonny     C   2%  16%  27%  36%  18%    BrownDick   HundleyRandy   MoellerChad
JimenezJorge     3B   0%  1%  4%  18%  76%    TracyChad     ReeceThadLivingstoneScott
MatrangaDave     3B   0%  2%  6%  24%  67%  BarnesSkeeter     NortonGreg   RoysterJerry
CarrollBrett     RF   0%  1%  1%  5%  92%    BarronTony     CimoMatt   KrauseScott
MaybinCameron     CF   0%  2%  13%  36%  49% ChristensonRyan     JavierStan   McLouthNate
AmezagaAlfredo   CF   1%  1%  5%  25%  68%    MosesJohnMcCrackenQuinton   ThomasDerrel
HelmsWes       3B   0%  0%  2%  13%  84%    BlumGeoff     BergDave   PhillipsBubba
RaynorJohn       LF   0%  0%  0%  3%  96%  FaneyteRikkert       FoxEric     WolfeJoel
StantonMichael   RF   0%  0%  1%  6%  92%    TorresPaul   MurrayGlenn     KellyMike
DominguezMatt     3B   0%  0%  1%  8%  91%  JorgensenTerry   WiggintonTy   CaraballoGary
PetersenBryan     LF   0%  0%  0%  1%  99%  KoslofskiKevin   GrahamEverett     VazRoberto
MillerJai       RF   0%  0%  0%  2%  98%    GaettiJoe   OrtizJavierEncarnacionMario
CousinsScott     CF   0%  0%  1%  14%  85%    ShelbyJohn   DunwoodyTodd     DeHaanKory
GonzalezAndy     SS   1%  1%  4%  21%  73%    HalterShane     OwenDave     PettiniJoe
BonifacioEmilio   3B   0%  0%  0%  1%  99%  SharpersonMike   GonzalesRene     MarignyRon
HayesBrett       C   0%  0%  0%  3%  97%  PetersonBrian   MillerDarrell     HillJason
DawkinsGookie     SS   0%  0%  0%  4%  96%    BaezKevin HernandezJackie   DeMaestriJoe

Name         .300 BA .375 OBP.500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB
RamirezHanley       77%    74%    75%    55%    32%    4%    31%    78%
JohnsonNick       28%    95%    8%    20%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CoghlanChris       29%    21%    1%    1%    4%    10%    0%    3%
UgglaDan           3%    11%    22%    7%    5%    0%    34%    0%
RossCody           9%    4%    23%    4%    2%    0%    6%    0%
SanchezGaby       15%    14%    5%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CantuJorge         12%    3%    4%    1%    4%    0%    1%    0%
MorrisonLogan       8%    16%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
LindseyJohn         5%    4%    2%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%
BakerJohn         5%    7%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
PaulinoRonny       6%    3%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
JimenezJorge       8%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
MatrangaDave       2%    7%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CarrollBrett       1%    0%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
MaybinCameron       1%    2%    0%    0%    0%    13%    0%    0%
AmezagaAlfredo     12%    4%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
HelmsWes           7%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
RaynorJohn         1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    17%
StantonMichael       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    1%    4%    0%
DominguezMatt       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
PetersenBryan       1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
MillerJai         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CousinsScott       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    4%    0%    0%
GonzalezAndy       1%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BonifacioEmilio     1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    19%    0%    16%
HayesBrett         1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
DawkinsGookie       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Josh Johnson         26   3.55   9   5 24 24   147.0 143   58 11   42 130 125
Ricky Nolasco         27   4.01 14 10 34 34   208.2 207   93 25   47 191 111
Burke Badenhop         27   4.50   6   6 30 12   94.0 103   47   8   34   59   99
Henricus van den Hurk   25   4.56   4   4 17 17   81.0   82   41 10   35   75   98
Anibal Sanchez         26   4.69   4   5 16 16   78.2   83   41   8   38   63   95
Christopher Volstad     23   4.69 10 11 31 31   172.2 184   90 21   67 114   95
Andrew Miller*        25   5.28   7 10 33 27   138.0 148   81 16   79 111   84
Dallas Trahern         24   5.32   4   5 13 13   66.0   74   39   9   30   38   84
Clay Hensley         30   5.37   4   7 32 18   107.1 123   64 13   56   74   83
Cristhian Martinez     28   5.40   6   9 28 20   120.0 145   72 17   38   64   82
Brian Lawrence         34   5.52   5   7 16 15   88.0 111   54 11   25   47   81
Ryan Tucker           23   5.54   3   5 20 13   74.2   85   46   8   45   48   80
Sean West*          24   5.76   7 13 29 28   140.2 158   90 22   86 105   77
Graham Taylor*        26   5.79   6 12 28 27   143.0 174   92 20   65   74   77
Hayden Penn           25   5.91   3   5 22 14   77.2   91   51 13   40   58   75
John Koronka*        30   6.06   5   9 24 21   111.1 140   75 16   55   55   73
Brett Sinkbeil         25   6.38   4   8 34 15   97.1 125   69 15   51   47   70

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Kiko Calero           35   3.77   3   2 50   0   45.1   39   19   4   24   47 118
Brendan Donnelly       38   3.82   2   1 37   0   33.0   32   14   3   12   27 116
Brian Sanches         31   4.15   4   3 53   0   60.2   59   28   7   25   57 107
Leo Nunez           26   4.15   5   4 69   0   65.0   61   30   9   24   54 107
Renyel Pinto*        27   4.15   3   3 72   0   65.0   57   30   7   41   60 107
Dan Meyer*          28   4.24   3   3 73   0   68.0   64   32   8   33   60 105
Timothy Wood         27   4.47   3   3 40   0   52.1   54   26   5   25   36   99
Hunter Jones*        26   4.53   3   2 31   0   47.2   50   24   5   19   35   98
Taylor Tankersley*      27   4.58   2   2 46   0   37.1   37   19   5   20   33   97
Gary Glover           33   4.80   3   4 35   0   45.0   48   24   6   15   33   93
Levale Speigner       29   4.84   4   5 55   0   70.2   80   38   6   28   39   92
Jose Ceda           23   5.01   3   3 32 10   64.2   60   36   7   49   59   89
Christopher Leroux     26   5.03   4   5 54   0   68.0   75   38   7   35   51   88
Chris Mobley         26   5.06   3   4 53   0   64.0   73   36   7   26   44   88
Jay Buente           26   5.32   3   4 48   0   67.2   71   40   9   44   57   84
Kris Harvey           26   5.68   3   6 26   2   44.1   49   28   5   33   28   78

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player         PO     TOP   MID   BOT         COMP 1         COMP 2         COMP 3
JohnsonJosh     SP     83%  17%  0%    PerezPascual       BenesAndy ChristensonLarry
CaleroKiko       RP     37%  48%  14%    BerenguerJuan     StoddardTim     BorlandToby
DonnellyBrendan   RP     47%  37%  17%      JonesTodd       PowerTed     CampbellBill
NolascoRicky     SP     57%  40%  3%  SandersonScott     ShieldsJames     HarenDanny
SanchesBrian     RP     30%  50%  20%    PolitteCliff     BeckwithJoe     CassidyScott
NunezLeo       RP     25%  53%  22%    ThigpenBobby     HoytLa Marr     MancusoPaul
PintoRenyel     RP     20%  53%  27%  AlmanzaArmando   JordanRicardo       CottsNeal
MeyerDan       RP     18%  58%  24%    JordanRicardo   NitkowskiC.J.    CalhounJeff
WoodTimothy     RP     14%  51%  35%    ShepherdKeith     CatherMike       FioreTony
BadenhopBurke     SP     10%  50%  40%    HodgesKevin     DavidsonBob     SteirerRick
JonesHunter     RP     16%  47%  38%    HorsmanVince     MoloneyBill     WaddellJason
VandenHurkRick   SP     30%  49%  21%    DempsterRyan       SmithPete     FosterKevin
TankersleyTaylor   RP     12%  40%  47%    ParrishJohn     EischenJoey     RosarioDavid
SanchezAnibal     SP     23%  51%  26%    BanksWillie   JenningsJason       WalkBob
VolstadChris     SP     13%  64%  23%      GuzmanJose ChiamparinoScott   CrawfordSteve
GloverGary       RP     10%  41%  49%      MinorBlas     BrennanTom     MeachamRusty
SpeignerLevale   RP     7%  37%  56%      SmithDave     ComerSteve       RoseScott
CedaJose       SP     5%  32%  63%    StallardTracy     ParmeleeRoy     LangdonTed
LerouxChristopher RP     4%  32%  64%    ChavezAnthony   SchneiderPaul     DipotoJerry
MobleyChris     RP     4%  35%  61%    HuismanJustin   ChildressRocky   MessengerRandy
MillerAndrew     SP     2%  36%  62%  ClaussenBrandon   MartinezJesus   BurroughsDarren
TrahernDallas     SP     7%  38%  55%        RoweTom       PooleJim     RandallScott
BuenteJay       RP     1%  25%  74%      ShadeMike     McClungSeth     MorenoVictor
HensleyClay     SP     4%  29%  67%    HeathcottMike   DrumrightMike       BenesAlan
MartinezCristhian SP     4%  31%  65%      TowersJosh     SorensenLary   BorkowskiDave
LawrenceBrian     SP     5%  29%  66%    MoehlerBrian       KesterTim     NagyCharles
TuckerRyan       SP     3%  26%  71%    BoyerBlaine     LumleyMike     TejedaFelix
HarveyKris       RP     2%  17%  81% SlocumbHeathcliff     EyreWillie     McCarthyTom
WestSean       SP     0%  17%  82%      MounceTony     NortonPhil     AldredScott
TaylorGraham     SP     0%  13%  87%    RundlesRich     IsenbergKurt       SnareRyan
PennHayden       SP     1%  15%  84%    KelingKorey CrucetaFrancisco       GohrGreg
KoronkaJohn     SP     0%  8%  92%    ProchaskaMike       SmithDan     WilliamsMatt
SinkbeilBrett     SP     0%  1%  99%    GryboskiKevin   WhitakerSteve     TuckerJulien

Player         130 ERA+  100 ERA+  K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9

<1
JohnsonJosh 44% 96% 42% 15% 91%
CaleroKiko 37% 80% 84% 0% 81%
DonnellyBrendan 36% 76% 27% 9% 88%
NolascoRicky 16% 84% 59% 50% 44%
SanchesBrian 24% 74% 64% 1% 64%
NunezLeo 19% 73% 26% 2% 39%
PintoRenyel 15% 67% 57% 0% 64%
MeyerDan 14% 64% 43% 0% 63%
WoodTimothy 10% 49% 3% 0% 80%
BadenhopBurke 6% 49% 0% 3% 78%
JonesHunter 16% 54% 10% 4% 70%
VandenHurkRick 10% 53% 59% 0% 48%
TankersleyTaylor 12% 43% 45% 0% 49%
SanchezAnibal 6% 46% 21% 0% 70%
VolstadChris 1% 36% 0% 0% 40%
GloverGary 10% 42% 9% 13% 42%
SpeignerLevale 7% 39% 1% 5% 81%
CedaJose 3% 31% 47% 0% 54%
LerouxChristopher 3% 24% 7% 0% 71%
MobleyChris 2% 26% 2% 1% 59%
MillerAndrew 0% 10% 15% 0% 47%
TrahernDallas 1% 17% 0% 0% 40%
BuenteJay 1% 16% 32% 0% 51%
HensleyClay 1% 11% 8% 1% 50%
MartinezCristhian 1% 11% 0% 13% 27%
LawrenceBrian 1% 13% 1% 22% 51%
TuckerRyan 0% 12% 1% 0% 59%
HarveyKris 1% 14% 2% 0% 66%
WestSean 0% 3% 5% 0% 17%
TaylorGraham 0% 2% 0% 0% 25%
PennHayden 0% 4% 8% 0% 20%
KoronkaJohn 0% 1% 0% 0% 21%
SinkbeilBrett 0% 0% 0% 0% 23%

Extrapolated Career Statistics
Name           BA OBP SLG   G   AB     R     H   2B 3B   HR RBI   BB   SO SB CS OPS+
RamirezHanley   .306 .385 .512 2398 9349   1791   2861 578 62 409 1120 1134   1855 508 168 135
UgglaDan       .242 .335 .449 1488 5580   912   1349 306 23 268 780   731   1582 34 31 105
JohnsonNick     .269 .402 .424 1344 4503   711   1209 271 11 136 644   909   998 40 38 119

Player         W   L   S   ERA     G   GS   IP     H   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
JohnsonJosh     146   92   0 3.72   401   392 2368   2316   206   751   2081   119
NolascoRicky     154   136   0 4.37   432   402 2407   2455   326   590   2135   101

All figures in % based on projection playing time

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

 

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Mets
Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees




These projections were sponsored in part by:

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Dan Szymborski Posted: December 14, 2009 at 05:36 PM | 42 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. xanthan Posted: December 14, 2009 at 05:53 PM (#3411840)
Gookie Dawkins is an amazing name.

I love Porkins' projected OBP. He sure would look nice in the Giants lineup. Also, the Marlins have a couple of nice bullpen pieces (Calero and Donnelly) but they seem especially volatile.

e: Scratch that. Calero threw 60 IP last season, I thought it was half that.
   2. JMPH Posted: December 14, 2009 at 05:58 PM (#3411845)
Wow, nice comps for Hanley.
   3. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 14, 2009 at 06:00 PM (#3411849)
I should note that there aren't really any great comps for Hanley Ramirez, so ZiPS ages him more generically than usual.

The Marlins have such a thin margin for error, considering ownership never has their back, that they really can't afford any more wacky experiments like making Emilio Bonifacio the starting 3B for 4 months.
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 14, 2009 at 06:02 PM (#3411852)
Wow, nice comps for Hanley.

Can't be that surprised, I'd imagine! 25-year-old shortstop with .900 career OPSs, steal a lot of bases, and hit .320 are pretty darn rare! That Ripken is the number 1 comp shows how darn hard it is to find shortstops that hit that well with speed.
   5. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 14, 2009 at 06:04 PM (#3411858)
I still can't believe they didn't offer Calero arbitration.

What's their projected rotation? Johnson/Nolasco/Sanchez/Volstad/Miller? Where does that leave Badenhop, West, and VandenHurk?
   6. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: December 14, 2009 at 06:27 PM (#3411886)
CF Maybin
2B Coghlan
SS Ramirez
3B Cantu
RF Ross
1B Sanchez
C Baker
LF Carroll

C Paulino
1B Helms
3B/1B Jimenez
UT Bonifacio
OF ??? (warm body they'll pick up from other non-tenders)

SP Johnson
SP Nolasco
SP Sanchez
SP Volstad
SP Miller

CL Nunez
RP Pinto
RP Meyer
RP Tankersley
RP Sanches
RP Wood
SW Badenhop

Starting pitching depth will be Badenhop, West, and Vanden Hurk. Possible we'll see Coghlan in left with someone like Kelly Johnson at second. I have to think first base belongs to Sanchez with Jimenez as the backup corner infielder.

EDIT: Sanchez will not be playing third. He did that in college with spectacular results in the College World Series.
   7. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: December 14, 2009 at 06:34 PM (#3411891)
Initial impression is that the offense will be about the same as last year, as Uggla's lost production will be compensated for by not playing Bonifacio every day and Maybin, hopefully, not cratering at a .180 batting average for the first few months of the season.

Infield defense is still going to be pretty bad. The bullpen will be iffy too, but it always is when you put it together on a shoestring budget. It could be good.

As usual, the difference between this being a 75 win team and a 90 win team is (a) the young pitching staying healthy and progressing and (b) Hanley not getting hurt. A repeat performance of 87 wins is not out of the question, but with a better Mets squad, a strong Braves team, and an improving Nationals team the Marlins will probably fall in the 80-85 range if they don't bring in any offensive firepower or see any big surprises there.
   8. Walt Davis Posted: December 14, 2009 at 06:58 PM (#3411916)
Either the Josh Johnson projection is off or the wayback machine could use a tune up. :-) Perez and Benes aren't great but are in the ballpark while Larry Christenson ages 23-25 posted OPS+ of 99, 111 (career high), 85.
   9. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 14, 2009 at 07:12 PM (#3411936)
Christenson's peripherals those years were better than the ERAs. Their K rates become a lot closer as well when you consider park and era.
   10. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 14, 2009 at 07:27 PM (#3411970)
We need to wait and see what comes back when Uggla is traded before we try to project what the team looks like on the field in 2010.

-- MWE
   11. Zac Schmitt Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:42 PM (#3412111)
Does Loria even have any real competition for worst owner in sports? I know Donald Sterling is pretty bad, and there might be some bad owners in hockey I don't know about, but does anyone really even compare?
   12. JPWF13 Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:46 PM (#3412114)
Maybin's projection is an "ouch".

How far from Hanley is ARod as a comp?
   13. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:47 PM (#3412115)
Rachel Phelps?
   14. RJ in TO Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:56 PM (#3412128)
Does Loria even have any real competition for worst owner in sports?


For years, Harold Ballard would have been the obvious answer.

More recently in Hockey, I'd say whoever currently owns the Islanders (Charles Wang?), although Tampa has had an interesting string of owners as well.
   15. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 14, 2009 at 09:01 PM (#3412132)
How bout the Phoenix Coyotes owner: Gary Bettman?
   16. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 14, 2009 at 09:02 PM (#3412137)
Maybin's projection is an "ouch".


Well, he's made no progress in three years; what would you expect?

How far from Hanley is ARod as a comp?


Pretty far. Hanley's probably closer to Jeter than to ARod. Don't forget that ARod had been a major league regular for six years, and had almost twice as many major league HRs, by the time he was the age that HRam is now.

-- MWE
   17. Davo Dozier Posted: December 14, 2009 at 09:03 PM (#3412139)
Logan Morrison... I'd never heard of him, but in my first 3 OOTP baseball simulations he hits like .370 with power in his rookie year.

So, I guess that means he'll do it in real life.
   18. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 14, 2009 at 09:08 PM (#3412142)
Does Loria even have any real competition for worst owner in sports? I know Donald Sterling is pretty bad, and there might be some bad owners in hockey I don't know about, but does anyone really even compare?

Al Davis?

Really, I think the other bad owners are incompetent. I think Loria's (greed/desire to make money) is just more obvious than other owners' (greed/desire to make money).
   19. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 14, 2009 at 09:09 PM (#3412144)
Logan Morrison isn't even on the 40-man roster yet, and is coming off a season where he missed significant time due to injury. He's a quality prospect but I expect him to be at AAA to start the season.

-- MWE
   20. Swedish Chef Posted: December 14, 2009 at 09:11 PM (#3412149)
I know Donald Sterling is pretty bad, and there might be some bad owners in hockey I don't know about, but does anyone really even compare?

While Bill Wirtz lived he was far worse than Loria.
   21. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: December 14, 2009 at 09:14 PM (#3412153)
We need to wait and see what comes back when Uggla is traded before we try to project what the team looks like on the field in 2010.


The was serious talk of the Fish non-tendering their second biggest offensive asset because he was due to make something approaching his actual value in arbitration. Barring Beinfest and Hill being made of magic--which they may damn well be given their history--they'll get a bullpen arm, an A ball starter with some upside, and maybe a bench player. Probably from the Giants.
   22. JPWF13 Posted: December 14, 2009 at 09:18 PM (#3412157)
Well, he's made no progress in three years; what would you expect?

.277/.375/.456 in AA at age 21
.319/.399/.463 in New Orleans at age 22

an 89 OPS+ through age 22 in 250 MLB PAs

and he projects at 79?
FWIW Chone projects Maybin at .265/.352/.405, Dan's .243/.322/.354 looks REALLY low...

Pretty far. Hanley's probably closer to Jeter than to ARod.


recent SS, ages 23-25:
Rk      Player      OPS+      BA      OBP      SLG      HR      PA      To      From
1     Alex Rodriguez     153     .307     .394     .606     135     1976     1999     2001
2     Hanley Ramirez     145     .325     .398     .549     86     2051     2007     2009
3     Nomar Garciaparra     138     .326     .371     .571     92     1981     1997     1999
4     Derek Jeter     128     .321     .397     .478     53     2181     1997     1999
5     Troy Tulowitzki     114     .283     .359     .490     40     1049     2008     2009
6     Travis Fryman     114     .277     .341     .456     60     1944     1992     1994
7     Jose Reyes     112     .292     .355     .461     47     2231     2006     2008
8     Jhonny Peralta     106     .272     .342     .442     58     1849     2005     2007
9     J
.JHardy     104     .276     .329     .463     55     1406     2006     2008
10     Khalil Greene     103     .259     .321     .437     32     1100     2003     2005 


perhaps I should have asked why Nomar didn't make it as a comp....
   23. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 14, 2009 at 09:27 PM (#3412170)
Maybin's gotta cut down on the strikeouts and the loss of power was pretty disturbing. Essentially, when you have a .380-.390 $H in the minors, you should be hitting a lot better than an .850 OPS in the PCL, even in New Orleans. It doesn't help that the Marlins play in the biggest strikeout park in the majors nearly every year (Maybin projects as an OPS+ of 82-89 in every other park in the NL).

It's not really the worst projection, anyway. If he plays well defensively, he's still a usable regular in center right now, despite the flaws and just 23.
   24. John M. Perkins Posted: December 14, 2009 at 09:30 PM (#3412178)
Two WS makes being a Marlins fan much sweeter than an Expos fan.
   25. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 14, 2009 at 09:50 PM (#3412199)
Boy, Andrew Miller didn't really turn out the way anybody planned, did he?
   26. J. Michael Neal Posted: December 14, 2009 at 10:26 PM (#3412300)
Does Loria even have any real competition for worst owner in sports? I know Donald Sterling is pretty bad, and there might be some bad owners in hockey I don't know about, but does anyone really even compare?


The current clown show running the Tampa Bay Lightning is probably worse. Keep in mind that they signed Dan Boyle to a 6-year, $40 million contract, making him one of the highest paid defensemen in hockey, with a full no-trade clause, and then forcing him to accept a trade out of town before he had played a single game under that contract, and that that probably isn't their worst personnel decision in the last two years. It may not even be in the top three; hiring Barry Melrose to be the coach and then firing him after 17 games is probably at the top of the list. They are hopelessly under financed, horrible at PR, and have no idea what they are doing.

At least Loria has a plan: he's intent on sucking every dollar out of someone else's pockets that isn't glued in, while paying out as few of them as he can. He's also very good at it. It isn't clear that Len Barrie and Owen Koules are any good at anything other than making torture porn movies.
   27. TomH Posted: December 14, 2009 at 10:36 PM (#3412330)
I would argue that Marlin fans have been treated even more cruelly than Expos fans

Are you KIDDING me? The Florida Marlins, who have barely had two decent years in their hisotry, and never a GREAT team, but own two WS trophies? THOSE Marlins!? The fans of the Marlins are possibly the luckiest fans/team ever in terms of recent actual versus deserved success on the diamond. The quoted statement is just nuts.
   28. JPWF13 Posted: December 14, 2009 at 11:53 PM (#3412495)
The Zephyrs hit just .261/.333/.399, (and why on earth did they keep that name when they moved to New Orleans...)
and that isn't just because NO sucked (which they did) the park factors I've seen suggest you can ignore the fact that they play in the PCL.
   29. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: December 15, 2009 at 01:02 AM (#3412562)
The 2003 team, once Willis and Cabrera came on board, was the best team in baseball that year. They were great once they made promotions and jettisoned the flotsam.

The 1997 team was just pretty good. But they won one less game than the Phillies did this season and no one was going to accuse these Phillies of being shams.

And I deserve a World Series trophy EVERY ####### YEAR.
   30. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 15, 2009 at 05:08 AM (#3412865)
And I deserve a World Series trophy EVERY ####### YEAR.

Who do you think you are, a Yankee fan?

The Marlins signed Scott Strickland to a minor league. I had no idea he was still pitching.
   31. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: December 15, 2009 at 05:17 AM (#3412879)
When you're a Fish you're a Fish all the way.
   32. tropicofcancer Posted: December 16, 2009 at 06:20 PM (#3414843)
Baker projection is whack
   33. Random Transaction Generator Posted: December 22, 2009 at 07:38 AM (#3419316)
Just wanted to point out that according to "Seaquest DSV" (from 1993), the Marlins are supposed to win the World Series this year.
   34. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: December 22, 2009 at 07:52 AM (#3419317)
I accept your offer, Aaron Hill. Congrats to the Fish from the Future.
   35. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 22, 2009 at 03:31 PM (#3419416)
It all depends on what kind of fan the Marlins fan is. Sentimental, or freakonomical?

It doesn't help that the Marlins play in the biggest strikeout park in the majors nearly every year (Maybin projects as an OPS+ of 82-89 in every other park in the NL).

There are strikeout parks? How so? Does it have to do with the size of the foul territory, or the sun shining in the batter's eyes, or something?
   36. Mister High Standards Posted: December 22, 2009 at 03:46 PM (#3419438)
There are strikeout parks? How so? Does it have to do with the size of the foul territory, or the sun shining in the batter's eyes, or something?


backdrop.
   37. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 22, 2009 at 11:53 PM (#3420305)
As Matt notes, backdrop is a big part. Foul territory is important as well - foul outs don't just replace hits and in-play outs, they replace strikeouts as well and conversely, parks with small foul territory increase both hits and strikeouts (foul territory in general is a very underappreciated component of park factor).
   38. Greg Pope thinks the Cubs are reeking havoc Posted: December 28, 2009 at 02:17 AM (#3422985)
Some years ago, I reach a translation of a French short story, the author and name of which eludes me at this moment


I'm guessing it's The Torture of Hope by Auguste Villiers de l'Isle-Adam.

EDIT: The linke pasted from Wikipedia doesn't seem to work for the author. I think there's a special character in there.
   39. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: February 04, 2010 at 09:08 PM (#3454220)
Update!

CF Maybin
LF Coghlan*
SS Ramirez
2B Uggla
3B Cantu
1B Sanchez
RF Ross
C Baker*

C Paulino
1B/3B Helms
3B/1B Jimenez*
UT Bonifacio#
OF Carroll

SP Johnson
SP Nolasco
SP Sanchez
SP Miller*
SP Volstad

SP Vandenhurk
SP West*
SP Trahern

CL Nunez
RP Pinto*
RP Badenhop
RP Sanches
RP Meyer*
RP Wood
RP McClung

I like this team.
   40. Mike Webber Posted: February 04, 2010 at 09:24 PM (#3454237)
CF Maybin
LF Coghlan*
SS Ramirez
2B Uggla
3B Cantu
1B Sanchez
RF Ross
C Baker*

Are you worried they don't have enough left handed batters? Might be a good year for Baker and Coghlan because they shouldn't ever see a lefty that isn't really good.
   41. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: February 04, 2010 at 10:14 PM (#3454287)
Are you worried they don't have enough left handed batters?

I've often thought that this concern is overblown. If I remember correctly, the 2003 team that won the championship had 6 straight righties in the lineup after Pierre and Castillo. It didn't stop them from beating some very good right handed pitching in the playoffs, as just about any good hitter fares pretty well against RHP. The greater concern would be stacking left handed batters who struggle against LHP together in a lineup.
   42. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: February 04, 2010 at 10:18 PM (#3454289)
I agree, DLGM. Low budget teams can't afford to mess around with things like "Good lefty off the bench."

I believe righties have a universal 8% platoon advantage against lefties, so yeah, the variance isn't huge. Lefties, on the other hand, have a widely varied platoon split that averages out to around 20% better against righties. So platoon if you can, but if you can't, just put the best player in there and hope for the best.

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