BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2010 ZiPS Projections

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, February 15, 2010

2010 ZiPS Projections - Houston Astros

I got an e-mail the other day asking me, since the Astros projections were upcoming, if I could outline a few scenarios that have the Astros going to the playoffs. I’ve thought about it and I have the three most likely.

- Lee and Berkman play 162 games. But the Astros also find defensive players that look exactly like them, so that when it comes time to bat, Lee and Berkman replaces those players using feats of subterfugue, like velcroed numbers and no names on the back.

- Given that Brian Moehler is signed and should not be pitching in the major leagues, the obvious solution is to train him to enter the dreams of opposing players and murder them in their sleep.

- Bring back the classic Astros jerseys. You know the ones I’m talking about. It won’t help them win games, but those jerseys, combined with stirrups, afros, and pornstaches, would make the team awesome, no matter what the win-loss record turns out to be. And if there’s some real retro-fever, bring in Mike Scott and Bob Knepper. Not as coaches, but as the 3/4 starters.

Seriously, the team has the obvious bright spots (Berkman, Lee, Wandy, Oswalt), but it’s generally mediocre everywhere with not the slightest pretense of depth at any position. This is going to be a very hard team to write puff pieces for this season unless headlines like “Pedro Feliz: Generally More Awesome Than A Pile of Cardboard Boxes” floats your boat.

If a lot goes right, the Astros might win 80 games. This would be the worst possible scenario, because the second Ed Wade sees an opportunity to get within 10 games of the division leader this summer, the first green shoots of a previously barren farm system are going to head out of town for middle relievers.

Thumbs-down, if you hadn’t already guessed. Quite a sad situation for what used to be a really solid organization.

Offensive Projections 

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 

Lance Berkman#           1b  34  .279  .392  .517 136 476  86 133 28  2 27  97  87 103  5  2   136 

Carlos Lee               lf  34  .298  .349  .514 129 494  67 147 30  1 25 102  40  51  3  1   122 

Hunter Pence             rf  27  .277  .333  .475 153 585  83 162 31  5 25  87  49 120  8  5   109 

Chris Shelton            3b  30  .256  .333  .405 117 430  50 110 23  1 13  61  48 116  1  1    92 

Jeff Keppinger           3b  30  .279  .334  .385 116 405  47 113 21  2  6  38  32  33  1  2    88 

Mark Saccomanno          1b  30  .253  .299  .424 140 509  65 129 25  4 18  72  32 115  2  1    87 

Jason Michaels           rf  34  .251  .319  .403 111 243  31  61 14  1  7  42  23  56  2  2    88 

Michael Bourn*           cf  27  .260  .328  .354 142 466  73 121 18  7  4  30  46 112 34  7    79 

Cory Sullivan*           cf  30  .269  .326  .372 127 390  50 105 18  5  4  38  33  71  8  4    85 

John Gall                lf  32  .256  .316  .382 118 406  38 104 22  1  9  48  34  73  4  3    82 

Kaz Matsui#              2b  34  .261  .315  .373 102 391  57 102 20  3  6  36  31  72 13  3    80 

Alex Romero#             rf  26  .267  .319  .370 136 449  50 120 23  4  5  58  32  54  7  4    80 

Geoff Blum#              3b  37  .251  .311  .384 103 307  31  77 15  1  8  43  25  52  0  1    81 

Justin Towles            c   26  .243  .323  .375  95 301  41  73 15  2  7  42  26  65  4  4    83 

Pedro Feliz              3b  35  .254  .297  .391 134 481  43 122 23  2 13  54  30  68  0  1    78 

Aaron Boone              1b  37  .245  .320  .351  59 151  17  37  7  0  3  16  13  32  1  0    76 

Jason Castro*            c   23  .243  .314  .352 126 486  54 118 25  2  8  62  48 111  2  2    75 

German Duran             2b  25  .253  .295  .373  84 292  31  74 13  2  6  28  15  58  3  2    74 

Brian Bogusevic*         lf  26  .238  .306  .336 110 408  49  97 18  2  6  41  37 109 10  2    69 

Ray Sadler               cf  29  .229  .286  .382 126 463  53 106 20  3 15  62  32 127  4  4    73 

Humberto Quintero        c   30  .251  .296  .362  80 235  22  59 12  1  4  24  10  48  0  1    72 

Wladimir Sutil           ss  25  .264  .317  .323 128 477  71 126 20  1  2  39  30  65 19 10    69 

Edwin Maysonet           ss  28  .248  .303  .335 113 355  43  88 17  1  4  30  27  78  3  1    68 

Darin Erstad*            lf  36  .247  .304  .344 105 227  27  56 11  1  3  22  18  46  2  2    70 

Chris Johnson            3b  25  .243  .279  .364 120 448  47 109 20  2 10  52  21 111  2  1    67 

Thomas Manzella          ss  24  .247  .293  .346 129 514  59 127 25  4  6  47  33 110  7  4    67 

Mitch Einertson          rf  24  .240  .288  .349 108 387  44  93 19  1  7  48  23  96  2  2    66 

Jon Gaston*              lf  23  .190  .272  .378 147 564  80 107 23 10 21  71  60 242  5  2    68 

Yordany Ramirez          cf  25  .249  .273  .371 130 458  49 114 22  2 10  50  14  83 11  6    67 

Reggie Abercrombie       rf  29  .226  .266  .364 134 461  55 104 20  4 12  47  21 161 12  5    63 

Jose Vallejo             2b  23  .242  .280  .326 129 509  46 123 18  5  5  40  26 108 13  3    59 

Collin DeLome*           lf  24  .208  .267  .359 135 510  67 106 18  7 15  54  32 196  7  4    62 

Oswaldo Navarro          ss  25  .237  .294  .297 122 418  43  99 17  1  2  35  30  92  5  5    56 

Eli Iorg                 rf  27  .226  .265  .333  72 252  26  57 11  2  4  27  12  76  7  3    56 

Kevin Cash               c   32  .208  .277  .309  53 149  13  31  6  0  3  16  14  46  0  0    58 

Defensive Projections

Name               CThr 1b      2b      3b      ss      lf      cf      rf      

Berkman#                Fr/96                                           Pr/148  

Lee                                                     Pr/85                   

Pence                                                   Av/83   Fr/110  Av/93   

Shelton                 Av/111          Fr/151                                  

Keppinger               Av/83   Av/62   Fr/103  Pr/80   Av/83           Av/83   

Saccomanno              Fr/123          Pr/125                                  

Michaels                                                Av/99   Pr/121  Av/99   

Bourn*                                                  Vg/128  Av/107  Vg/128  

Sullivan*                                               Av/84   Fr/84           

Gall                    Fr/65                           Fr/65                   

Matsui#                         Fr/93                                           

Romero#                                                 Av/82   Fr/131  Av/118  

Blum#                   Fr/74   Fr/71   Av/67   Pr/85                           

Towles             Av                                                           

Feliz                                   Vg/83                                   

Boone                   Av/110          Pr/113                                  

Castro*            Vg                                                           

Duran                           Av/140  Av/140  Av/140                          

Bogusevic*                                              Av/92   Pr/92   Av/92   

Sadler                                                  Vg/61   Av/92   Vg/92   

Quintero           Av                                                           

Sutil                           Vg/146  Av/121  Av/121                          

Maysonet                        Vg/119  Vg/119  Av/117  Av/119                  

Erstad*                 Av/91                           Vg/91   Av/66   Vg/91   

Johnson                 Av/123          Av/123  Fr/148                          

Manzella                                        Vg/96                           

Einertson                                               Vg/111  Fr/191  Vg/154  

Gaston*                                                 Av/130          Av/130  

Ramirez                                                 Vg/136  Vg/136  Vg/136  

Abercrombie                                             Vg/115  Vg/115  Vg/115  

Vallejo                         Vg/146                                          

DeLome*                                                 Vg/164  Fr/159  Av/164  

Navarro                         Av/122  Av/122  Av/129                          

Iorg                                                    Vg/173  Av/85   Vg/110  

Cash               Av                                                           

* - Bats Left

# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name               PO    EX    VG    AV    FR    PO          COMP 1          COMP 2          COMP 3

BerkmanLance       1B   48%   35%   11%    5%    1%     BagwellJeff     MurrayEddie    DowningBrian

LeeCarlos          LF   33%   31%   16%   12%    8%        EnnisDel     FurilloCarl     MooreJohnny

PenceHunter        RF   12%   23%   22%   23%   19%    BrandtJackie     BraggsGlenn EncarnacionJuan

KeppingerJeff      3B    1%    8%   15%   27%   49%  O’ConnellDanny       NelsonBry    BridgesRocky

BournMichael       CF    6%   13%   28%   33%   21%      MorenoOmar       WinnRandy      JavierStan

SaccomannoMark     1B    0%    1%    5%   20%   73%      CromerD.T.   McPhailMarlin    MackaninPete

MichaelsJason      RF    1%    3%    5%   13%   78%       SmithMark      SwannPedro      KennedyBob

MatsuiKaz          2B    4%    8%   15%   28%   45%      TaylorTony   GutteridgeDon      AmaralRich

GallJohn           LF    0%    1%    3%    8%   88%     PiniellaLou      SwannPedro     MottolaChad

RomeroAlex         RF    0%    1%    2%    7%   90% SchoendienstRed    PowellHosken  WilliamsDallas

BlumGeoff          3B    0%    3%    7%   17%   74%  PendletonTerry      WhiteFrank   CandaeleCasey

TowlesJ.R.          C    1%    7%   17%   39%   35%      WilsonJohn      AusmusBrad        PaulJosh

DuranGerman        2B    1%    2%    4%   14%   80%    ManriqueFred        PyeEddie    CastilloJose

CastroJason         C    0%    3%    9%   32%   57%      SkeelsAndy  FitzgeraldMike    NewstromDoug

BogusevicBrian     LF    0%    0%    4%   17%   79%       CurryMike     RobertsDave    WaltonJerome

QuinteroHumberto    C    0%    2%    7%   25%   65%       HornerJim    DifeliceMike    MartinezBuck

SutilWladimir      SS    1%    1%    5%   20%   74%     RyanBrendan     AlomarSandy    MetcalfeMike

SadlerRay          CF    0%    1%    4%   15%   80%   JacksonDarrin     BufordDamon  SandersAnthony

MaysonetEdwin      2B    1%    1%    2%    7%   88%        ShaveJon       LopezJuan      SiscoSteve

ErstadDarin        LF    0%    0%    0%    1%   99%     PrideCurtis  WilliamsGerald      SwannPedro

JohnsonChris       3B    0%    0%    1%    5%   94%        LeonJose       ShawScott        UstBrant

RamirezYordany     CF    0%    0%    1%    8%   90%   GlanvilleDoug       SternAdam     BufordDamon

ManzellaThomas     SS    0%    1%    5%   18%   76%   DawkinsTravis LeMasterJohnnie       MearesPat

EinertsonMitch     RF    0%    0%    0%    1%   98%      WareJeremy        AutenJim     MartinBrian

GastonJonathan     LF    0%    1%    2%    4%   93%   BatesFletcher      BassJayson     LukachykRob

AbercrombieReggie  RF    0%    0%    1%    2%   97%      BarkerSean   LezcanoCarlos      DavisButch

VallejoJose        2B    0%    0%    0%    3%   97% BonifacioEmilio    CastilloJuan   RodriguezLuis

DeLomeCollin       LF    0%    0%    1%    1%   98%    SaturriaLuisAbercrombieReggi     PrideCurtis

Name              .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB

BerkmanLance          23%     71%     58%     40%      2%      0%     34%      0%

LeeCarlos             49%     20%     55%     19%      3%      0%     24%      0%

PenceHunter           17%      6%     26%      8%      4%     10%     24%      0%

KeppingerJeff         23%      9%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

BournMichael           8%      5%      0%      0%      0%     20%      0%     77%

SaccomannoMark         3%      0%      3%      0%      0%      1%      3%      0%

MichaelsJason          7%      4%      4%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

MatsuiKaz              9%      2%      1%      0%      0%      1%      0%      0%

GallJohn               5%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

RomeroAlex            11%      2%      0%      0%      0%      3%      0%      0%

BlumGeoff              6%      2%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

TowlesJ.R.             3%      3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

DuranGerman            7%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

CastroJason            1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

BogusevicBrian         1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

QuinteroHumberto       7%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

SutilWladimir          8%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      3%

SadlerRay              0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

MaysonetEdwin          4%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

ErstadDarin            7%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

JohnsonChris           2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

RamirezYordany         2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

ManzellaThomas         2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%      0%

EinertsonMitch         2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

GastonJonathan         0%      0%      2%      0%      0%     52%      9%      0%

AbercrombieReggie      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      2%      0%      0%

VallejoJose            1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      3%      0%      0%

DeLomeCollin           0%      0%      0%      0%      0%     22%      0%      0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Wandy Rodriguez*          28   3.86  12  10  31  31   179.1  176   77  20   56  162  114 

Roy Oswalt                32   3.98  10   9  31  31   192.0  200   85  20   47  147  111 

Bud Norris                25   4.78   8  10  28  27   141.1  149   75  16   70  127   92 

Brett Myers               29   4.83   6   8  33  18   117.1  122   63  21   40  104   91 

Shane Loux                30   5.27   4   6  28  12    95.2  115   56  10   34   44   84 

Brian Moehler             38   5.29   6  11  25  25   143.0  173   84  20   43   80   83 

Mike Hampton*             37   5.30   5   8  20  20   103.2  121   61  13   41   65   83 

Josh Banks                27   5.54   6  12  32  23   149.1  179   92  24   44   89   80 

Felipe Paulino            26   5.71   4   8  21  18    93.0  109   59  14   47   78   77 

Polin Trinidad*           25   5.88   6  14  27  26   153.0  184  100  30   47   91   75 

Jose Capellan             29   5.91   4   9  35  18   112.2  139   74  17   47   72   75 

Josh Muecke*              28   6.12   5  12  30  22   135.1  161   92  24   69   76   72 

Yorman Bazardo            25   6.14   5  13  32  24   146.2  188  100  23   57   79   72 

Gustavo Chacin*           29   6.40   2   7  15  14    71.2   91   51  13   30   35   69 

Brad James                26   6.54   4  10  23  22   104.2  132   76  14   68   47   68 

Tyler Lumsden*            27   6.78   3   8  29  13    86.1  112   65  12   53   37   65 

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Brandon Lyon              30   3.52   6   4  66   0    71.2   67   28   7   23   54  125 

Tim Byrdak*               36   4.19   2   1  65   0    58.0   50   27   8   30   57  105 

Doug Brocail              43   4.24   3   3  48   0    46.2   47   22   5   19   35  104 

Matthew Lindstrom         30   4.33   3   3  67   1    60.1   63   29   6   24   52  102 

Bill Sadler               28   4.35   3   3  37   8    68.1   63   33   7   40   64  101 

Samuel Gervacio           25   4.35   4   4  59   0    72.1   70   35   8   34   78  101 

Alberto Arias             26   4.43   4   4  44   4    67.0   72   33   5   29   50   99 

Chia-Jen Lo               24   4.55   1   2  44   0    59.1   55   30   5   43   61   97 

Henry Villar              23   4.59   3   4  45   3    86.1   92   44  11   31   73   96 

Roy Corcoran              30   4.60   3   3  48   0    60.2   63   31   4   34   39   96 

Jeff Fulchino             30   4.68   4   5  45   6    84.2   90   44   9   34   67   94 

Chris Sampson             32   4.81   4   5  46   7    88.0  100   47   9   26   48   92 

Casey Daigle              29   4.92   3   4  48   0    60.1   63   33   8   33   49   90 

Fernando Abad*            24   5.02   4   6  47   2    86.0   97   48  13   21   66   88 

Matt Nevarez              23   5.03   2   3  38   0    34.0   33   19   4   25   34   88 

Jon Switzer*              30   5.06   2   3  48   0    58.2   64   33   8   22   46   87 

Armando Benitez           37   5.21   2   2  20   0    19.0   19   11   4    8   18   84 

Wesley Wright*            25   5.30   3   5  56   0    56.0   58   33   9   34   55   83 

Gary Majewski             30   5.32   2   3  59   0    64.1   77   38   8   25   40   83 

Evan Englebrook           28   5.48   2   4  33   1    47.2   56   29   5   26   28   81 

Matt Ginter               32   5.56   3   6  30   9    79.1   98   49  11   26   46   79 

Jose Valdez               27   5.97   2   6  42   2    57.1   61   38   9   39   45   74 

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player             PO       TOP   MID   BOT            COMP 1            COMP 2            COMP 3

RodriguezWandy     SP       53%   43%    3%          BlueVida        KnepperBob      FlanaganMike

OswaltRoy          SP       42%   54%    4%       BurkettJohn         ClarkMark         SeleAaron

ByrdakTim          RP       22%   50%   28%        VilloneRon          MahayRon     MartinezTippy

BrocailDoug        RP       30%   39%   31%          MesaJose       WilhelmHoyt        McMahonDon

LindstromMatt      RP       14%   54%   31%      ChifferFloyd    CarrascoHector       CunnaneWill

SadlerBilly        RP       14%   55%   31%       SmithGeorge     WilliamsFrank    D’AcquistoJohn

GervacioSamuel     RP       18%   56%   27%         DevlinBob     GuanteCecilio       KrawczykRay

AriasAlberto       RP       13%   51%   36%     VuckovichPete       DipotoJerry         MastnyTom

LoChia-Jen         RP       14%   45%   40%       ThurbergTom        RiveraSaul         InnisJeff

VillarHenry        RP        6%   50%   44%     PattersonDave      LooperBraden   BrandenburgMark

CorcoranRoy        RP       12%   42%   45%      AbernathyTed   WilliamsCharlie      StanhouseDon

FulchinoJeff       RP        7%   47%   46%        AdamsTerry         SmallMark       DipotoJerry

NorrisBud          SP       14%   56%   30%         MooreMike      SchmidtJason     NippertDustin

SampsonChris       RP       11%   40%   49%       BorbonPedro       RussellJack         TaylorRon

DaigleCasey        RP        3%   35%   62%         FainoJeff        GwynMarcus       BorowskiJoe

AbadFernando       RP        2%   36%   62%          KeyChris     RiveraRoberto      PetersonMark

NevarezMatthew     RP       12%   31%   57%       SadlerBilly       ThurbergTom         InnisJeff

BenitezArmando     RP       16%   35%   49%      ServiceScott        SeanezRudy    MontgomeryJeff

LouxShane          SP        4%   27%   69%      CarrollOwnie    MacFaydenDanny         MillerBob

MoehlerBrian       SP        6%   27%   67%    SpringerDennis       SparksSteve       DonovanDick

HamptonMike        SP        6%   31%   63%        KnepperBob      LangstonMark       RogersKenny

WrightWesley       RP        3%   19%   79%         CarmanDon  TankersleyTaylor         PenaJesus

EnglebrookEvan     RP        2%   17%   82%      BumsteadMike        SeguraJose        GreenSteve

GinterMatt         RP        4%   20%   76%      SorensenLary       GravesDanny       CondreyClay

PaulinoFelipe      SP        1%   22%   77%       HaynesJimmy          HaasDave         CloudeKen

TrinidadPolin      SP        1%    9%   91%     MarshallRandy     PhillipsHeath       MacLaneEvan

CapellanJose       SP        0%    5%   95%       StokesBrian        LiraFelipe       BruhertMike

MueckeJosh         SP        0%    5%   95%          SmithDan     ProchaskaMike     RemlingerMike

BazardoYorman      SP        0%    5%   95%       ReedBrandon        LehrJustin        AhearnePat

JamesBrad          SP        0%    2%   98%     ParedesCarlos    GogolewskiDoug    BuglovskyChris

LumsdenTyler       SP        0%    1%   99%     McDowellRoger         WhiteMatt       WadeTerrell

Player             130 ERA+  100 ERA+    K/9 >8  BB/9 <2   HR/9
<1

RodriguezWandy          15%       80%       54%       5%       54%

OswaltRoy               10%       73%        6%      37%       66%

ByrdakTim               16%       65%       78%       0%       34%

BrocailDoug             24%       63%       16%       5%       54%

LindstromMatt           10%       55%       33%       1%       80%

SadlerBilly             10%       56%       63%       0%       74%

GervacioSamuel          14%       62%       92%       0%       58%

GervacioSamuel          14%       62%       92%       0%       57%

AriasAlberto            10%       57%        6%       1%       86%

LoChia-Jen              10%       52%       82%       0%       87%

VillarHenry              4%       44%       30%       2%       52%

CorcoranRoy              9%       43%        5%       1%       90%

FulchinoJeff             5%       42%       12%       0%       60%

NorrisBud                1%       33%       50%       0%       55%

SampsonChris             9%       43%        4%      23%       68%

DaigleCasey              2%       25%       22%       0%       51%

AbadFernando             2%       28%        9%      37%       26%

NevarezMatthew           8%       34%       69%       0%       68%

BenitezArmando          16%       38%       57%       9%       30%

LouxShane                3%       24%        0%       4%       67%

MoehlerBrian             2%       14%        2%      14%       34%

HamptonMike              1%       15%        2%       1%       47%

WrightWesley             2%       16%       71%       0%       25%

EnglebrookEvan           2%       14%        1%       0%       59%

GinterMatt               3%       17%        2%      11%       41%

PaulinoFelipe            0%        6%       29%       0%       19%

TrinidadPolin            0%        2%        0%       5%        1%

CapellanJose             0%        3%        2%       1%       25%

MueckeJosh               0%        1%        0%       0%        7%

BazardoYorman            0%        0%        0%       0%       11%

JamesBrad                0%        0%        0%       0%       35%

LumsdenTyler             0%        1%        0%       0%       33%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name               BA  OBP  SLG    G    AB      R      H   2B  3B   HR  RBI    BB     SO  SB  CS OPS+

BerkmanLance     .288 .400 .528 2384  8351   1502   2402  529  37  468 1650  1528   1761 110  52  139

MatsuiKaz        .267 .320 .381  888  3328    485    889  179  27   49  307   259    605 115  38   82

LeeCarlos        .290 .342 .496 2444  9317   1339   2706  542  19  446 1725   740   1155 133  50  115

PenceHunter      .275 .330 .465 1380  5291    716   1455  269  48  214  745   429   1115  78  59  106

Player              W     L     S   ERA      G     GS   IP      H     HR     BB     SO   ERA+

MyersBrett        106   104    49  4.55    405    272 1769   1805    278    619   1509     96

OswaltRoy         205   135     0  3.69    503    490 3135   3201    303    769   2482    118

RodriguezWandy    131   127     0  4.29    358    352 2024   2062    247    712   1752    102

All figures in % based on projection playing time 


Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  

Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 

many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.  

ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 

being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 

is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 

the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  

This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in

the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information

is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting

the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 

most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top

quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

A’s

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Indians

Mariners

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

These projections were sponsored in part by:

Dan Szymborski Posted: February 15, 2010 at 12:22 AM | 49 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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1. Patriot87 Posted: February 15, 2010 at 12:40 AM (#3460372)

Bourn got boned

2. Dan The Mediocre is one of "the rest" Posted: February 15, 2010 at 12:45 AM (#3460373)

So you project 5 Astros to be above average, 1 about average, and the rest below average?

That is a painful projection.

3. Autobahn Posted: February 15, 2010 at 01:00 AM (#3460384)

I was going to say Chris Shelton's position was a mistake having never had any significant time at the hot corner, but then i checked his 2009 minor season and he has 83 games at third.

Then i thought maybe you could do an offensive/defensive platoon with Feliz and maybe get some nice production out of that.

Then i noticed his 15 errors.

4. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 15, 2010 at 01:01 AM (#3460385)

Bourn would have better projections if he'd avoid having full seasons of a 57 OPS+.

5. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: February 15, 2010 at 01:02 AM (#3460386)

This team could be bad for a long time. The minor league system is pretty bare of any interesting names as well.

They should really trade Berkman, Lee, and Oswalt for some prospects and just start over.

6. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 15, 2010 at 01:02 AM (#3460387)

I hope Ray Sadler finds his way back to the majors. On a team this bad, he might.

I've liked him ever since he got called up to the Pirates as a last-minute injury replacement, and Lloyd McClendon mistook him for a construction worker.

7. Endless Trash Posted: February 15, 2010 at 01:09 AM (#3460389)

That is a pretty big dropoff from the third best hitter to the fourth best. Makes the Jays projection look almost OK.

I had no idea that Aaron Boone was still in baseball.

And is Mark Saccomanno a real person or was the ZiPS machine watching Seinfeld?

8. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: February 15, 2010 at 01:20 AM (#3460391)

ed wade's really bringing the band back together. brett myers, jason michaels, and michael bourn. plus guys like darin erstad, kaz matsui, doug brocail, and armando benitez (really? armando benitez?), it's like a greatest hits of his worst disasters.

all you need is luis castillo.

9. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 15, 2010 at 01:31 AM (#3460395)

Well, some of those guys are gone and just here for convenience. Brocail's already announced his retirement and Boone's hinted at it.

10. Tricky Dick Posted: February 15, 2010 at 02:00 AM (#3460409)

I had higher hopes for Felipe Paulino, and I still think there is a good chance he will have an ERA in the 4.5 range. It's surprising that the probability of K/9 greater than 8 is only 29%, when K/9 in 2009 was 8.57. I think Bourn is greatly underrated here. I think his OPS will be in the low to mid 700's. And, his defense in CF is definitely better than average. His UZR and Fielding Bible results are both well above average in CF. The relief pitching looks kind of ugly, with only Lyon appearing to have a decent projection. I think Arias and Fulchino could turn out to be good, based on last year's results, but I can see how ZIPS would forecast worse results until they establish that they can repeat the 09 results.

11. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: February 15, 2010 at 02:04 AM (#3460411)

really? armando benitez?

I am not kidding when I say that I had thought that Armando Benitez was dead. I could have sworn I read something about him dying of heart disease at some point over the last year or two.

12. JJ1986 Posted: February 15, 2010 at 02:08 AM (#3460414)

I could have sworn I read something about him dying of heart disease at some point over the last year or two.

He pulled a Chase Wright in the minors somewhere last year. He might as well be dead.

13. oldjacket Posted: February 15, 2010 at 02:15 AM (#3460418)

Is it me or is Sadler's ERA low for giving up 40 walks in 68 IP?

14. Tricky Dick Posted: February 15, 2010 at 02:20 AM (#3460421)

Benitez played for Newark in the independent league last season, put up decent numbers, and was signed for the Round Rock Express roster late in the season to help replace minor leaguers who had been called up to the big leagues. As I recall, Enos Cabell watched him pitch in the independent league and said he still looked good. The sample size was small in Round Rock, but Benitez didn't pitch well. (4 HR in 8.1 innings.) As far as I know, he hasn't been signed to repeat in AAA.

15. GregD Posted: February 15, 2010 at 02:23 AM (#3460422)

Carlos Lee should be paying close attention to the makeup of the Veterans' Committee. He's going to look like an actual ballplayer once he's safely retired and no one remembers his "range" or his "effort."

16. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: February 15, 2010 at 02:50 AM (#3460424)

My understanding is that Oswalt, Lee, and Berkman either have NTCs or would rather retire than play for a team other than the Astros. That makes blowing up and starting over pretty much impossible. Vain attempts at contending might actually be the best strategy (although the execution is definitely lacking).

17. birdlives is one crazy ninja Posted: February 15, 2010 at 03:44 AM (#3460441)

Where's Miguel Tejada?

18. Justin T has a centaur for a mentor Posted: February 15, 2010 at 04:02 AM (#3460445)

As someone about to spend his first baseball season in the tv territory of the Astros, thank goodness the Rangers might be interesting. And for MLB.TV.

19. base ball chick Posted: February 15, 2010 at 04:44 AM (#3460461)

wandy rodriguez is 31 not 28 - not sure why you think he is going to regreass that much

oswalt berkman and lee all have complete NTC. lee is being paid 18 mill a year for 3 years and if you think that drayton gonna eat money to trade him just for minor leaguers, i got this bridge to see yall. it's berkman's last year of his contract and he doesn't want to be traded. oswalt might could agree, but he has back problems and has been getting worse over the past 3 years. the trading him ship has sailed

and dan is unforetunately right about ed wade and his middle reliever thingy

i can't believe how many people really REALLY believe that pedro freaking feliz is this HUGE upgrade over geoff blum because he's a "winner" or something

tejada took himself and his 30 GIDPs/year back to the orioles

20. Endless Trash Posted: February 15, 2010 at 04:51 AM (#3460464)

I think what birdlives is getting at is that Tejada wasn't included on the Orioles projections, and isn't included here. He seems to have fallen through the cracks.

21. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 15, 2010 at 05:32 AM (#3460476)

297/336/433 for Tejada.

22. Walt Davis Posted: February 15, 2010 at 06:02 AM (#3460480)

Oh my god!

Is this worse than the Royals?

Are they playing with 8 guys or is Wladimir Sutil really the starting SS?

And filed under things I never thought I'd see -- Wandy Rodriguez projects better than Roy Oswalt.

The Astros always somehow turn out decent but this year ... I don't think there's a soul this side of Jesus Christ's that Beelzebub wants badly enough to turn this into a 500 team.

They will now finish 10 games ahead of the Cubs.

23. Tricky Dick Posted: February 15, 2010 at 06:12 AM (#3460482)

Manzella will be handed the shortstop job. I don't think this experiment will work out well, because Manzella isn't much of a hitter. Ever since they drafted him, the Astros have viewed Manzella as the "next Adam Everett" based on both his defensive and offensive profile. Manzella truly has to play defense as well as Adam Everett to justify the kind of offense he is likely to bring. I doubt that his defense will be that good...but we will see.

24. rlc Posted: February 15, 2010 at 06:46 AM (#3460487)

Who is John Gall?

25. Walt Davis Posted: February 15, 2010 at 08:57 AM (#3460498)

Who is John Gall?

used to be in the Cards system I think, AAA lifer. Projected really well for a couple seasons I recall. We've been through all the Rand jokes so don't go there. :-)

26. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: February 15, 2010 at 09:12 AM (#3460500)

oswalt berkman and lee all have complete NTC. lee is being paid 18 mill a year for 3 years and if you think that drayton gonna eat money to trade him just for minor leaguers, i got this bridge to see yall. it's berkman's last year of his contract and he doesn't want to be traded. oswalt might could agree, but he has back problems and has been getting worse over the past 3 years. the trading him ship has sailed

This is terrible. Lee probably doesn't have a lot of trade value, based on how horrible defensive OF are being treated in the FA market now. Ditto Berkman. That leaves Oswalt and his back. I can't see trading them just to save money either since the prospect returns aren't likely to be good. It might be that Wade is being entirely rational in his approach. They're going to suck no matter what, so why not keep some guys around that fans can come out to see.

27. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: February 15, 2010 at 11:02 AM (#3460507)

Is this worse than the Royals?

Yeah, no.

28. Mike Webber Posted: February 15, 2010 at 02:10 PM (#3460535)

Is this worse than the Royals?

I don't know Kendall, I rarely get to think the Royals are in better shape than anyone else. Don't ruin this for me!

29. Mike Webber Posted: February 15, 2010 at 02:19 PM (#3460538)

Hey Dan,
How do you account for a batter like Michael Bourn had 17 bunt hits in 37 attempts(20 of which are at-bats), as far as BABIP?

Not questioning your Bourn projection, just more of a technical question.

30. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: February 15, 2010 at 02:54 PM (#3460553)

Just looking at the "age" column for the hitters is pretty disturbing, even beyond the very high rankings of such luminaries as Jeff Keppinger, Jason Michaels, Chris Shelton, John Gall and Bob Saccamanno.
34
34
27 (Pence)
30
30
30
34
27 (Bourn)
30
32
34
26 (Alex Romero)
37
26 (a catcher!!!!!!!!)
35
37
23
25
26
29
30
.........

They do have a few youngsters projected to be absolutely terrible, so there's some hope.

31. bigglou115 is not an Illuminati agent Posted: February 15, 2010 at 04:13 PM (#3460604)

At least looking at Berkman's projected career line is interesting. He'll probably edge Chipper in HR but not AVG (I know, but if you think the HOF voters aren't going to consider the fact that Chipper has the highest switch hitter career average your crazy). Both guys have the "cause he's Chipper Jones/Lance Berkman" factor, but I don't see either being the slam dunk that the writers seem to claim they are.

32. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: February 15, 2010 at 04:52 PM (#3460626)

How is Chipper not a slam dunk?

33. rlc Posted: February 15, 2010 at 05:36 PM (#3460660)

We've been through all the Rand jokes so don't go there. :-)

Walt has shrugged.

34. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: February 15, 2010 at 05:52 PM (#3460668)

It seems fairly obvious at this point that this Szymborski character is biased against the Angels. How else could one explain his insistence on projecting the team with the most wins in baseball over the past couple of years after all of the other teams?

Due to this obvious inability to look at the matter objectively, I reject all of his conclusions.

35. with Glavinesque control and Madduxian poise Posted: February 15, 2010 at 06:06 PM (#3460673)

Chipper has 9000+ PA at Berkman's current level of career OPS+ (147), if you leave off Chipper's first year and this last year, both of which probably added value. So unless you think Berkman has another 3000 PA at 147 OPS+ in him, Chipper has a better career, as a hitter, than Berkman. Oh, and then you realize that Chipper's a 3B.

I'm not sure why you think Chipper and Lance are so close.

36. Greg Franklin Posted: February 15, 2010 at 06:29 PM (#3460681)

I was going to say Chris Shelton's position was a mistake having never had any significant time at the hot corner, but then i checked his 2009 minor season and he has 83 games at third.

It was a mutual decision between the Mariner people and Shelton's people in 2009. He had no shot of sticking in Seattle as a platoon 1B/DH, and at least two 1B in the system (Jeff Clement, Mike Karp) were going to get playing time ahead of him at AAA, so he played 3B. He's not a third baseman, so it's an understandable mistake.

I miss the inside jokes about Ed Wade's middle relievers that should have festooned this thread. Out of the 18 relievers in the ODDIBE table above, I'm kind of surprised that only 1 of their 54 comps is a recent Philly middle reliever (Matt Ginter -> Clay Condrey). For old times you could include Jose Mesa or Don Carman.

37. Walt Davis Posted: February 15, 2010 at 07:23 PM (#3460704)

I dunno:

Astros lineup OPS+: 136 (1b), 122 (LF), 109 (RF), 79 (CF), 80 (2B), 83/75 (C), 78 (3B), 67 (ss) with equally bad stuff on the bench.

Royals lineup OPS+: 116 (1B), 107 (LF/CF), 99 (2B), 95 (3B), 96 (DH?), 79 (SS), 73 (C), 91 (LF/CF) plus I can't remember or figure out who's in RF.

Thing is, I'm not sure the Astros' lineup is better than the Royals and, if it is, it's by the slimmest of margins. Yes, Berkman's a stud the Royals don't have but they do have a lot of 95 OPS+ vs. 80 OPS+ advantages to help make up for it.

On the pitching side, you have the opposite extreme with Greinke and Soria being great and nobody else on the Royals even being league average vs. 2 good starters, Brandon Lyon, a flotilla of 100 ERA+ relievers and a somewhat better group of 6th starters masquerading as 3rd starters.

Now, put these two teams together and .... I'm still not that impressed:

LF: Lee or DeJesus
CF: Bourn or DeJesus
RF: Pence
1B: Berkman (or Butler if he's better defensively and we're in the AL)
2B: Callaspo I guess
SS: ugh
3B: Gordon
C: ugh
DH: Butler or Lee

Awesome top 3 starters and 2 good relievers. Good lineup I suppose with C and SS being the only two sub-100 OPS+ type bats. Defense looks pretty horrible, especially if we play Betancourt (and any days we've got Lee/DeJesus/Pence in the OF too).

Dan, what sayeth ZiPS on the awesome Royals-Astros matchup?

38. DCW3 Posted: February 15, 2010 at 07:51 PM (#3460719)

1B: Berkman (or Butler if he's better defensively and we're in the AL)

I don't think Butler is supposed to be better than anybody defensively.

And I thought that the Royals were going with Getz as their second baseman, for some reason.

39. Grunthos Posted: February 15, 2010 at 08:07 PM (#3460730)

"using feats of subterfugue"

The summer sun of Texas beat down upon the stadium, but to no avail. Houstonians had never had any truck with the sun since the invention of air conditioning. It would have to look elsewhere for entertainment.

Oblivious to the photon deflection overhead, Albert Pujols stepped to the plate. He was, as always, calm and focused. Even his fond memories of this stadium and this opponent had no place in his thinking just now. It was the sixth inning, Wandy Rodriguez was pitching shutout ball with a two run lead, and the Cardinals needed some offense. They needed Albert. And Albert was prepared.

He dug in. With one out and no one on, his responsibility was clear: take whatever Rodriguez gave him. Be alert to the possibilities. Go with the flow of the game, and take your chance when it comes. The murmur of the crowd, currently lulled here in the middle stages, did not impinge on his consciousness. Only his stance, his ritual, and the pitcher sixty feet away.

And... something else. At the edge of thought. So subliminal, it was almost drowned out by the movement of the air around his bat as he cocked it above his shoulder. He wouldn't have realized it was there at all, but this was his third at-bat, and the repetition was breaking through to his conscious mind. It was as if... it was as if his every thought and action was echoed, almost immediately, a double-take by a ghost of himself standing at the plate not quite at that very moment. Sort of an instant deja-vu effect.

Albert briefly shook his head. He had never let his mind play tricks on him before, and he certainly wasn't starting now. He focused on Wandy Rodriguez, on the pitcher's eyes staring back at him, mano-a-mano. Yes, that's it. That's right. Wind up and deliver. I'll be there to meet you.

The left-hander leaned back, coiled, and fired. Albert could see the seams spinning as the ball departed the pitcher's grip, and a lifetime of muscle memory kicked into action. Fastball, low and in. But not in enough! His bat spun forward with grace and power, in a motion recognizable to all. He's locked in on this one, everyone in the crowd knew it. The ball was ticketed for the upper deck.

Then it was over. Albert stood in the batter's box, bat still loosely held to his left side, not quite believing his ears. He couldn't possibly have heard the ball smack snugly into the catcher's mitt. No contact at all! But he'd had that one. Everything had been just right.

And, discordantly, at the outer limit of his mind, the glee of the home run he had just hit - or hadn't he? - rang in ethereal chorale. He could feel the echo of success. And yet, here he was, standing at the plate, strike three sounding from the umpire's hoarse throat. And somewhere, someone was laughing hysterically. Albert didn't know how he knew it, but he knew that he'd been played somehow. And he also knew he would never be able to explain it to anyone.

Later in the year, when the voodoo doll fell out of Lance Berkman's pocket, he claimed it was it was a gag gift for Roy Oswalt, a resin bag that he and Roy had had a good laugh over, and that Lance now carried as a good luck charm. Nobody made the connection between this incident and the Astros' late-season collapse, not even Albert Pujols. Which was probably just as well, for everyone's sake.

40. The Essex Snead Posted: February 15, 2010 at 08:43 PM (#3460755)

Dan, what sayeth ZiPS on the awesome Royals-Astros matchup?

I'd think it'd say something along the lines of: "The only winning move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess?"

41. Walt Davis Posted: February 15, 2010 at 11:22 PM (#3460834)

And I thought that the Royals were going with Getz as their second baseman, for some reason.

I think you're right. Not sure if Getz or Matsui would start on the combo team.

EDIT: and I forgot Josh Fields on the Royals. Is he the RF?

42. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama

Posted: February 15, 2010 at 11:30 PM (#3460836)

using feats of subterfugue

Is this Bach disguised as Beethoven?

43. Tricky Dick Posted: February 16, 2010 at 12:13 AM (#3460865)

Oh, and then you realize that Chipper's a 3B.

Berkman played almost a full season in CF, and he was surprisingly capable. He has also played the corner outfield positions for much of his career. The knee injury he suffered in a church-sponsored flag football game pretty much confined his future to 1st base in 2005. Berkman still says he is willing to play RF if the Astros want him to do so; however, that's not going to happen.

Berkman isn't a bad first baseman. For his career, he is barely positive (+0.5) at first base, which means he is probably average. But his UZR alternates good and bad each year at 1st base: 05, -6.8; 06 +5.6; 07 -2.0; 08 +6.7; 09 -5.2. Berkman is also known for alternating his up and down offensive seasons (though the down years aren't all that bad). If the pattern continues, he is due for an up year in 2010 on both offense and defense.

44. Jim Wisinski

Posted: February 16, 2010 at 03:14 AM (#3460955)

I don't think Butler is supposed to be better than anybody defensively.

He's apparently better than Mike Jacobs.

45. cardsfanboy

Posted: February 16, 2010 at 11:40 PM (#3461604)

is there any chance that getting out of Philly will allow Myers to reach his potential? I wouldn't be surprised at all if the top three starting pitchers for the Astros all break 120 era+. (wouldn't predict it mind you, but I don't think it is out of the question either) I'll take the over on Keppinger also.

46. Delorians Posted: February 17, 2010 at 12:06 AM (#3461626)

As an Astros fan, I realize the team will be bad for a while no matter what happens. Therefore, I would just assume that Oswalt and Berkman remain on the team for a few more years, to compile enough counting stats to deserve having their numbers retired, so that we end up with four numbers retired from the World Series team of 2005.

47. Out of Accent Shallow's mouth go burning lamps Posted: February 17, 2010 at 12:46 AM (#3461665)

is there any chance that getting out of Philly will allow Myers to reach his potential?

In what way was being in Philly limiting Myers' potential? Non-snark, genuinely curious. It sure looked like he reached his potential in '05-'06.

48. sinicalypse Posted: March 26, 2010 at 11:51 PM (#3486974)

hear hear, grunthos, that was a quality read!

49. sinicalypse Posted: March 26, 2010 at 11:51 PM (#3486975)

oh and i'd be remiss if i didn't mention that my great hope for the astros this year is the return of babe shelton. he's able to give us an exciting month of baseball, and i'm certainly hoping for one.

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Monday, February 15, 2010

2010 ZiPS Projections - Houston Astros

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