Offensive Projections
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Lance Berkman# 1b 34 .279 .392 .517 136 476 86 133 28 2 27 97 87 103 5 2 136
Carlos Lee lf 34 .298 .349 .514 129 494 67 147 30 1 25 102 40 51 3 1 122
Hunter Pence rf 27 .277 .333 .475 153 585 83 162 31 5 25 87 49 120 8 5 109
Chris Shelton 3b 30 .256 .333 .405 117 430 50 110 23 1 13 61 48 116 1 1 92
Jeff Keppinger 3b 30 .279 .334 .385 116 405 47 113 21 2 6 38 32 33 1 2 88
Mark Saccomanno 1b 30 .253 .299 .424 140 509 65 129 25 4 18 72 32 115 2 1 87
Jason Michaels rf 34 .251 .319 .403 111 243 31 61 14 1 7 42 23 56 2 2 88
Michael Bourn* cf 27 .260 .328 .354 142 466 73 121 18 7 4 30 46 112 34 7 79
Cory Sullivan* cf 30 .269 .326 .372 127 390 50 105 18 5 4 38 33 71 8 4 85
John Gall lf 32 .256 .316 .382 118 406 38 104 22 1 9 48 34 73 4 3 82
Kaz Matsui# 2b 34 .261 .315 .373 102 391 57 102 20 3 6 36 31 72 13 3 80
Alex Romero# rf 26 .267 .319 .370 136 449 50 120 23 4 5 58 32 54 7 4 80
Geoff Blum# 3b 37 .251 .311 .384 103 307 31 77 15 1 8 43 25 52 0 1 81
Justin Towles c 26 .243 .323 .375 95 301 41 73 15 2 7 42 26 65 4 4 83
Pedro Feliz 3b 35 .254 .297 .391 134 481 43 122 23 2 13 54 30 68 0 1 78
Aaron Boone 1b 37 .245 .320 .351 59 151 17 37 7 0 3 16 13 32 1 0 76
Jason Castro* c 23 .243 .314 .352 126 486 54 118 25 2 8 62 48 111 2 2 75
German Duran 2b 25 .253 .295 .373 84 292 31 74 13 2 6 28 15 58 3 2 74
Brian Bogusevic* lf 26 .238 .306 .336 110 408 49 97 18 2 6 41 37 109 10 2 69
Ray Sadler cf 29 .229 .286 .382 126 463 53 106 20 3 15 62 32 127 4 4 73
Humberto Quintero c 30 .251 .296 .362 80 235 22 59 12 1 4 24 10 48 0 1 72
Wladimir Sutil ss 25 .264 .317 .323 128 477 71 126 20 1 2 39 30 65 19 10 69
Edwin Maysonet ss 28 .248 .303 .335 113 355 43 88 17 1 4 30 27 78 3 1 68
Darin Erstad* lf 36 .247 .304 .344 105 227 27 56 11 1 3 22 18 46 2 2 70
Chris Johnson 3b 25 .243 .279 .364 120 448 47 109 20 2 10 52 21 111 2 1 67
Thomas Manzella ss 24 .247 .293 .346 129 514 59 127 25 4 6 47 33 110 7 4 67
Mitch Einertson rf 24 .240 .288 .349 108 387 44 93 19 1 7 48 23 96 2 2 66
Jon Gaston* lf 23 .190 .272 .378 147 564 80 107 23 10 21 71 60 242 5 2 68
Yordany Ramirez cf 25 .249 .273 .371 130 458 49 114 22 2 10 50 14 83 11 6 67
Reggie Abercrombie rf 29 .226 .266 .364 134 461 55 104 20 4 12 47 21 161 12 5 63
Jose Vallejo 2b 23 .242 .280 .326 129 509 46 123 18 5 5 40 26 108 13 3 59
Collin DeLome* lf 24 .208 .267 .359 135 510 67 106 18 7 15 54 32 196 7 4 62
Oswaldo Navarro ss 25 .237 .294 .297 122 418 43 99 17 1 2 35 30 92 5 5 56
Eli Iorg rf 27 .226 .265 .333 72 252 26 57 11 2 4 27 12 76 7 3 56
Kevin Cash c 32 .208 .277 .309 53 149 13 31 6 0 3 16 14 46 0 0 58
Defensive Projections
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Berkman# Fr/96 Pr/148
Lee Pr/85
Pence Av/83 Fr/110 Av/93
Shelton Av/111 Fr/151
Keppinger Av/83 Av/62 Fr/103 Pr/80 Av/83 Av/83
Saccomanno Fr/123 Pr/125
Michaels Av/99 Pr/121 Av/99
Bourn* Vg/128 Av/107 Vg/128
Sullivan* Av/84 Fr/84
Gall Fr/65 Fr/65
Matsui# Fr/93
Romero# Av/82 Fr/131 Av/118
Blum# Fr/74 Fr/71 Av/67 Pr/85
Towles Av
Feliz Vg/83
Boone Av/110 Pr/113
Castro* Vg
Duran Av/140 Av/140 Av/140
Bogusevic* Av/92 Pr/92 Av/92
Sadler Vg/61 Av/92 Vg/92
Quintero Av
Sutil Vg/146 Av/121 Av/121
Maysonet Vg/119 Vg/119 Av/117 Av/119
Erstad* Av/91 Vg/91 Av/66 Vg/91
Johnson Av/123 Av/123 Fr/148
Manzella Vg/96
Einertson Vg/111 Fr/191 Vg/154
Gaston* Av/130 Av/130
Ramirez Vg/136 Vg/136 Vg/136
Abercrombie Vg/115 Vg/115 Vg/115
Vallejo Vg/146
DeLome* Vg/164 Fr/159 Av/164
Navarro Av/122 Av/122 Av/129
Iorg Vg/173 Av/85 Vg/110
Cash Av
* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
Name PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3
BerkmanLance 1B 48% 35% 11% 5% 1% BagwellJeff MurrayEddie DowningBrian
LeeCarlos LF 33% 31% 16% 12% 8% EnnisDel FurilloCarl MooreJohnny
PenceHunter RF 12% 23% 22% 23% 19% BrandtJackie BraggsGlenn EncarnacionJuan
KeppingerJeff 3B 1% 8% 15% 27% 49% O’ConnellDanny NelsonBry BridgesRocky
BournMichael CF 6% 13% 28% 33% 21% MorenoOmar WinnRandy JavierStan
SaccomannoMark 1B 0% 1% 5% 20% 73% CromerD.T. McPhailMarlin MackaninPete
MichaelsJason RF 1% 3% 5% 13% 78% SmithMark SwannPedro KennedyBob
MatsuiKaz 2B 4% 8% 15% 28% 45% TaylorTony GutteridgeDon AmaralRich
GallJohn LF 0% 1% 3% 8% 88% PiniellaLou SwannPedro MottolaChad
RomeroAlex RF 0% 1% 2% 7% 90% SchoendienstRed PowellHosken WilliamsDallas
BlumGeoff 3B 0% 3% 7% 17% 74% PendletonTerry WhiteFrank CandaeleCasey
TowlesJ.R. C 1% 7% 17% 39% 35% WilsonJohn AusmusBrad PaulJosh
DuranGerman 2B 1% 2% 4% 14% 80% ManriqueFred PyeEddie CastilloJose
CastroJason C 0% 3% 9% 32% 57% SkeelsAndy FitzgeraldMike NewstromDoug
BogusevicBrian LF 0% 0% 4% 17% 79% CurryMike RobertsDave WaltonJerome
QuinteroHumberto C 0% 2% 7% 25% 65% HornerJim DifeliceMike MartinezBuck
SutilWladimir SS 1% 1% 5% 20% 74% RyanBrendan AlomarSandy MetcalfeMike
SadlerRay CF 0% 1% 4% 15% 80% JacksonDarrin BufordDamon SandersAnthony
MaysonetEdwin 2B 1% 1% 2% 7% 88% ShaveJon LopezJuan SiscoSteve
ErstadDarin LF 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% PrideCurtis WilliamsGerald SwannPedro
JohnsonChris 3B 0% 0% 1% 5% 94% LeonJose ShawScott UstBrant
RamirezYordany CF 0% 0% 1% 8% 90% GlanvilleDoug SternAdam BufordDamon
ManzellaThomas SS 0% 1% 5% 18% 76% DawkinsTravis LeMasterJohnnie MearesPat
EinertsonMitch RF 0% 0% 0% 1% 98% WareJeremy AutenJim MartinBrian
GastonJonathan LF 0% 1% 2% 4% 93% BatesFletcher BassJayson LukachykRob
AbercrombieReggie RF 0% 0% 1% 2% 97% BarkerSean LezcanoCarlos DavisButch
VallejoJose 2B 0% 0% 0% 3% 97% BonifacioEmilio CastilloJuan RodriguezLuis
DeLomeCollin LF 0% 0% 1% 1% 98% SaturriaLuisAbercrombieReggi PrideCurtis
Name .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B 10 3B 30 HR 30 SB
BerkmanLance 23% 71% 58% 40% 2% 0% 34% 0%
LeeCarlos 49% 20% 55% 19% 3% 0% 24% 0%
PenceHunter 17% 6% 26% 8% 4% 10% 24% 0%
KeppingerJeff 23% 9% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
BournMichael 8% 5% 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 77%
SaccomannoMark 3% 0% 3% 0% 0% 1% 3% 0%
MichaelsJason 7% 4% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
MatsuiKaz 9% 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
GallJohn 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
RomeroAlex 11% 2% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0%
BlumGeoff 6% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
TowlesJ.R. 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
DuranGerman 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
CastroJason 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
BogusevicBrian 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
QuinteroHumberto 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SutilWladimir 8% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3%
SadlerRay 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
MaysonetEdwin 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
ErstadDarin 7% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
JohnsonChris 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
RamirezYordany 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
ManzellaThomas 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
EinertsonMitch 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
GastonJonathan 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 52% 9% 0%
AbercrombieReggie 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0%
VallejoJose 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0%
DeLomeCollin 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 0% 0%
Pitching Statistics - Starters
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Wandy Rodriguez* 28 3.86 12 10 31 31 179.1 176 77 20 56 162 114
Roy Oswalt 32 3.98 10 9 31 31 192.0 200 85 20 47 147 111
Bud Norris 25 4.78 8 10 28 27 141.1 149 75 16 70 127 92
Brett Myers 29 4.83 6 8 33 18 117.1 122 63 21 40 104 91
Shane Loux 30 5.27 4 6 28 12 95.2 115 56 10 34 44 84
Brian Moehler 38 5.29 6 11 25 25 143.0 173 84 20 43 80 83
Mike Hampton* 37 5.30 5 8 20 20 103.2 121 61 13 41 65 83
Josh Banks 27 5.54 6 12 32 23 149.1 179 92 24 44 89 80
Felipe Paulino 26 5.71 4 8 21 18 93.0 109 59 14 47 78 77
Polin Trinidad* 25 5.88 6 14 27 26 153.0 184 100 30 47 91 75
Jose Capellan 29 5.91 4 9 35 18 112.2 139 74 17 47 72 75
Josh Muecke* 28 6.12 5 12 30 22 135.1 161 92 24 69 76 72
Yorman Bazardo 25 6.14 5 13 32 24 146.2 188 100 23 57 79 72
Gustavo Chacin* 29 6.40 2 7 15 14 71.2 91 51 13 30 35 69
Brad James 26 6.54 4 10 23 22 104.2 132 76 14 68 47 68
Tyler Lumsden* 27 6.78 3 8 29 13 86.1 112 65 12 53 37 65
Pitching Statistics - Relievers
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Brandon Lyon 30 3.52 6 4 66 0 71.2 67 28 7 23 54 125
Tim Byrdak* 36 4.19 2 1 65 0 58.0 50 27 8 30 57 105
Doug Brocail 43 4.24 3 3 48 0 46.2 47 22 5 19 35 104
Matthew Lindstrom 30 4.33 3 3 67 1 60.1 63 29 6 24 52 102
Bill Sadler 28 4.35 3 3 37 8 68.1 63 33 7 40 64 101
Samuel Gervacio 25 4.35 4 4 59 0 72.1 70 35 8 34 78 101
Alberto Arias 26 4.43 4 4 44 4 67.0 72 33 5 29 50 99
Chia-Jen Lo 24 4.55 1 2 44 0 59.1 55 30 5 43 61 97
Henry Villar 23 4.59 3 4 45 3 86.1 92 44 11 31 73 96
Roy Corcoran 30 4.60 3 3 48 0 60.2 63 31 4 34 39 96
Jeff Fulchino 30 4.68 4 5 45 6 84.2 90 44 9 34 67 94
Chris Sampson 32 4.81 4 5 46 7 88.0 100 47 9 26 48 92
Casey Daigle 29 4.92 3 4 48 0 60.1 63 33 8 33 49 90
Fernando Abad* 24 5.02 4 6 47 2 86.0 97 48 13 21 66 88
Matt Nevarez 23 5.03 2 3 38 0 34.0 33 19 4 25 34 88
Jon Switzer* 30 5.06 2 3 48 0 58.2 64 33 8 22 46 87
Armando Benitez 37 5.21 2 2 20 0 19.0 19 11 4 8 18 84
Wesley Wright* 25 5.30 3 5 56 0 56.0 58 33 9 34 55 83
Gary Majewski 30 5.32 2 3 59 0 64.1 77 38 8 25 40 83
Evan Englebrook 28 5.48 2 4 33 1 47.2 56 29 5 26 28 81
Matt Ginter 32 5.56 3 6 30 9 79.1 98 49 11 26 46 79
Jose Valdez 27 5.97 2 6 42 2 57.1 61 38 9 39 45 74
* - Throws Left
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
Player PO TOP MID BOT COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3
RodriguezWandy SP 53% 43% 3% BlueVida KnepperBob FlanaganMike
OswaltRoy SP 42% 54% 4% BurkettJohn ClarkMark SeleAaron
ByrdakTim RP 22% 50% 28% VilloneRon MahayRon MartinezTippy
BrocailDoug RP 30% 39% 31% MesaJose WilhelmHoyt McMahonDon
LindstromMatt RP 14% 54% 31% ChifferFloyd CarrascoHector CunnaneWill
SadlerBilly RP 14% 55% 31% SmithGeorge WilliamsFrank D’AcquistoJohn
GervacioSamuel RP 18% 56% 27% DevlinBob GuanteCecilio KrawczykRay
AriasAlberto RP 13% 51% 36% VuckovichPete DipotoJerry MastnyTom
LoChia-Jen RP 14% 45% 40% ThurbergTom RiveraSaul InnisJeff
VillarHenry RP 6% 50% 44% PattersonDave LooperBraden BrandenburgMark
CorcoranRoy RP 12% 42% 45% AbernathyTed WilliamsCharlie StanhouseDon
FulchinoJeff RP 7% 47% 46% AdamsTerry SmallMark DipotoJerry
NorrisBud SP 14% 56% 30% MooreMike SchmidtJason NippertDustin
SampsonChris RP 11% 40% 49% BorbonPedro RussellJack TaylorRon
DaigleCasey RP 3% 35% 62% FainoJeff GwynMarcus BorowskiJoe
AbadFernando RP 2% 36% 62% KeyChris RiveraRoberto PetersonMark
NevarezMatthew RP 12% 31% 57% SadlerBilly ThurbergTom InnisJeff
BenitezArmando RP 16% 35% 49% ServiceScott SeanezRudy MontgomeryJeff
LouxShane SP 4% 27% 69% CarrollOwnie MacFaydenDanny MillerBob
MoehlerBrian SP 6% 27% 67% SpringerDennis SparksSteve DonovanDick
HamptonMike SP 6% 31% 63% KnepperBob LangstonMark RogersKenny
WrightWesley RP 3% 19% 79% CarmanDon TankersleyTaylor PenaJesus
EnglebrookEvan RP 2% 17% 82% BumsteadMike SeguraJose GreenSteve
GinterMatt RP 4% 20% 76% SorensenLary GravesDanny CondreyClay
PaulinoFelipe SP 1% 22% 77% HaynesJimmy HaasDave CloudeKen
TrinidadPolin SP 1% 9% 91% MarshallRandy PhillipsHeath MacLaneEvan
CapellanJose SP 0% 5% 95% StokesBrian LiraFelipe BruhertMike
MueckeJosh SP 0% 5% 95% SmithDan ProchaskaMike RemlingerMike
BazardoYorman SP 0% 5% 95% ReedBrandon LehrJustin AhearnePat
JamesBrad SP 0% 2% 98% ParedesCarlos GogolewskiDoug BuglovskyChris
LumsdenTyler SP 0% 1% 99% McDowellRoger WhiteMatt WadeTerrell
Player 130 ERA+ 100 ERA+ K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9
<1
RodriguezWandy 15% 80% 54% 5% 54%
OswaltRoy 10% 73% 6% 37% 66%
ByrdakTim 16% 65% 78% 0% 34%
BrocailDoug 24% 63% 16% 5% 54%
LindstromMatt 10% 55% 33% 1% 80%
SadlerBilly 10% 56% 63% 0% 74%
GervacioSamuel 14% 62% 92% 0% 58%
GervacioSamuel 14% 62% 92% 0% 57%
AriasAlberto 10% 57% 6% 1% 86%
LoChia-Jen 10% 52% 82% 0% 87%
VillarHenry 4% 44% 30% 2% 52%
CorcoranRoy 9% 43% 5% 1% 90%
FulchinoJeff 5% 42% 12% 0% 60%
NorrisBud 1% 33% 50% 0% 55%
SampsonChris 9% 43% 4% 23% 68%
DaigleCasey 2% 25% 22% 0% 51%
AbadFernando 2% 28% 9% 37% 26%
NevarezMatthew 8% 34% 69% 0% 68%
BenitezArmando 16% 38% 57% 9% 30%
LouxShane 3% 24% 0% 4% 67%
MoehlerBrian 2% 14% 2% 14% 34%
HamptonMike 1% 15% 2% 1% 47%
WrightWesley 2% 16% 71% 0% 25%
EnglebrookEvan 2% 14% 1% 0% 59%
GinterMatt 3% 17% 2% 11% 41%
PaulinoFelipe 0% 6% 29% 0% 19%
TrinidadPolin 0% 2% 0% 5% 1%
CapellanJose 0% 3% 2% 1% 25%
MueckeJosh 0% 1% 0% 0% 7%
BazardoYorman 0% 0% 0% 0% 11%
JamesBrad 0% 0% 0% 0% 35%
LumsdenTyler 0% 1% 0% 0% 33%
Extrapolated Career Statistics
Name BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+
BerkmanLance .288 .400 .528 2384 8351 1502 2402 529 37 468 1650 1528 1761 110 52 139
MatsuiKaz .267 .320 .381 888 3328 485 889 179 27 49 307 259 605 115 38 82
LeeCarlos .290 .342 .496 2444 9317 1339 2706 542 19 446 1725 740 1155 133 50 115
PenceHunter .275 .330 .465 1380 5291 716 1455 269 48 214 745 429 1115 78 59 106
Player W L S ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+
MyersBrett 106 104 49 4.55 405 272 1769 1805 278 619 1509 96
OswaltRoy 205 135 0 3.69 503 490 3135 3201 303 769 2482 118
RodriguezWandy 131 127 0 4.29 358 352 2024 2062 247 712 1752 102
All figures in % based on projection playing time
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
Reader Comments and Retorts
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1. Patriot87 Posted: February 15, 2010 at 12:40 AM (#3460372)That is a painful projection.
Then i thought maybe you could do an offensive/defensive platoon with Feliz and maybe get some nice production out of that.
Then i noticed his 15 errors.
They should really trade Berkman, Lee, and Oswalt for some prospects and just start over.
I've liked him ever since he got called up to the Pirates as a last-minute injury replacement, and Lloyd McClendon mistook him for a construction worker.
I had no idea that Aaron Boone was still in baseball.
And is Mark Saccomanno a real person or was the ZiPS machine watching Seinfeld?
all you need is luis castillo.
I am not kidding when I say that I had thought that Armando Benitez was dead. I could have sworn I read something about him dying of heart disease at some point over the last year or two.
He pulled a Chase Wright in the minors somewhere last year. He might as well be dead.
oswalt berkman and lee all have complete NTC. lee is being paid 18 mill a year for 3 years and if you think that drayton gonna eat money to trade him just for minor leaguers, i got this bridge to see yall. it's berkman's last year of his contract and he doesn't want to be traded. oswalt might could agree, but he has back problems and has been getting worse over the past 3 years. the trading him ship has sailed
and dan is unforetunately right about ed wade and his middle reliever thingy
i can't believe how many people really REALLY believe that pedro freaking feliz is this HUGE upgrade over geoff blum because he's a "winner" or something
tejada took himself and his 30 GIDPs/year back to the orioles
Is this worse than the Royals?
Are they playing with 8 guys or is Wladimir Sutil really the starting SS?
And filed under things I never thought I'd see -- Wandy Rodriguez projects better than Roy Oswalt.
The Astros always somehow turn out decent but this year ... I don't think there's a soul this side of Jesus Christ's that Beelzebub wants badly enough to turn this into a 500 team.
They will now finish 10 games ahead of the Cubs.
used to be in the Cards system I think, AAA lifer. Projected really well for a couple seasons I recall. We've been through all the Rand jokes so don't go there. :-)
This is terrible. Lee probably doesn't have a lot of trade value, based on how horrible defensive OF are being treated in the FA market now. Ditto Berkman. That leaves Oswalt and his back. I can't see trading them just to save money either since the prospect returns aren't likely to be good. It might be that Wade is being entirely rational in his approach. They're going to suck no matter what, so why not keep some guys around that fans can come out to see.
Yeah, no.
I don't know Kendall, I rarely get to think the Royals are in better shape than anyone else. Don't ruin this for me!
How do you account for a batter like Michael Bourn had 17 bunt hits in 37 attempts(20 of which are at-bats), as far as BABIP?
Not questioning your Bourn projection, just more of a technical question.
34
34
27 (Pence)
30
30
30
34
27 (Bourn)
30
32
34
26 (Alex Romero)
37
26 (a catcher!!!!!!!!)
35
37
23
25
26
29
30
.........
They do have a few youngsters projected to be absolutely terrible, so there's some hope.
Walt has shrugged.
Due to this obvious inability to look at the matter objectively, I reject all of his conclusions.
I'm not sure why you think Chipper and Lance are so close.
It was a mutual decision between the Mariner people and Shelton's people in 2009. He had no shot of sticking in Seattle as a platoon 1B/DH, and at least two 1B in the system (Jeff Clement, Mike Karp) were going to get playing time ahead of him at AAA, so he played 3B. He's not a third baseman, so it's an understandable mistake.
I miss the inside jokes about Ed Wade's middle relievers that should have festooned this thread. Out of the 18 relievers in the ODDIBE table above, I'm kind of surprised that only 1 of their 54 comps is a recent Philly middle reliever (Matt Ginter -> Clay Condrey). For old times you could include Jose Mesa or Don Carman.
Astros lineup OPS+: 136 (1b), 122 (LF), 109 (RF), 79 (CF), 80 (2B), 83/75 (C), 78 (3B), 67 (ss) with equally bad stuff on the bench.
Royals lineup OPS+: 116 (1B), 107 (LF/CF), 99 (2B), 95 (3B), 96 (DH?), 79 (SS), 73 (C), 91 (LF/CF) plus I can't remember or figure out who's in RF.
Thing is, I'm not sure the Astros' lineup is better than the Royals and, if it is, it's by the slimmest of margins. Yes, Berkman's a stud the Royals don't have but they do have a lot of 95 OPS+ vs. 80 OPS+ advantages to help make up for it.
On the pitching side, you have the opposite extreme with Greinke and Soria being great and nobody else on the Royals even being league average vs. 2 good starters, Brandon Lyon, a flotilla of 100 ERA+ relievers and a somewhat better group of 6th starters masquerading as 3rd starters.
Now, put these two teams together and .... I'm still not that impressed:
LF: Lee or DeJesus
CF: Bourn or DeJesus
RF: Pence
1B: Berkman (or Butler if he's better defensively and we're in the AL)
2B: Callaspo I guess
SS: ugh
3B: Gordon
C: ugh
DH: Butler or Lee
Awesome top 3 starters and 2 good relievers. Good lineup I suppose with C and SS being the only two sub-100 OPS+ type bats. Defense looks pretty horrible, especially if we play Betancourt (and any days we've got Lee/DeJesus/Pence in the OF too).
Dan, what sayeth ZiPS on the awesome Royals-Astros matchup?
I don't think Butler is supposed to be better than anybody defensively.
And I thought that the Royals were going with Getz as their second baseman, for some reason.
The summer sun of Texas beat down upon the stadium, but to no avail. Houstonians had never had any truck with the sun since the invention of air conditioning. It would have to look elsewhere for entertainment.
Oblivious to the photon deflection overhead, Albert Pujols stepped to the plate. He was, as always, calm and focused. Even his fond memories of this stadium and this opponent had no place in his thinking just now. It was the sixth inning, Wandy Rodriguez was pitching shutout ball with a two run lead, and the Cardinals needed some offense. They needed Albert. And Albert was prepared.
He dug in. With one out and no one on, his responsibility was clear: take whatever Rodriguez gave him. Be alert to the possibilities. Go with the flow of the game, and take your chance when it comes. The murmur of the crowd, currently lulled here in the middle stages, did not impinge on his consciousness. Only his stance, his ritual, and the pitcher sixty feet away.
And... something else. At the edge of thought. So subliminal, it was almost drowned out by the movement of the air around his bat as he cocked it above his shoulder. He wouldn't have realized it was there at all, but this was his third at-bat, and the repetition was breaking through to his conscious mind. It was as if... it was as if his every thought and action was echoed, almost immediately, a double-take by a ghost of himself standing at the plate not quite at that very moment. Sort of an instant deja-vu effect.
Albert briefly shook his head. He had never let his mind play tricks on him before, and he certainly wasn't starting now. He focused on Wandy Rodriguez, on the pitcher's eyes staring back at him, mano-a-mano. Yes, that's it. That's right. Wind up and deliver. I'll be there to meet you.
The left-hander leaned back, coiled, and fired. Albert could see the seams spinning as the ball departed the pitcher's grip, and a lifetime of muscle memory kicked into action. Fastball, low and in. But not in enough! His bat spun forward with grace and power, in a motion recognizable to all. He's locked in on this one, everyone in the crowd knew it. The ball was ticketed for the upper deck.
Then it was over. Albert stood in the batter's box, bat still loosely held to his left side, not quite believing his ears. He couldn't possibly have heard the ball smack snugly into the catcher's mitt. No contact at all! But he'd had that one. Everything had been just right.
And, discordantly, at the outer limit of his mind, the glee of the home run he had just hit - or hadn't he? - rang in ethereal chorale. He could feel the echo of success. And yet, here he was, standing at the plate, strike three sounding from the umpire's hoarse throat. And somewhere, someone was laughing hysterically. Albert didn't know how he knew it, but he knew that he'd been played somehow. And he also knew he would never be able to explain it to anyone.
Later in the year, when the voodoo doll fell out of Lance Berkman's pocket, he claimed it was it was a gag gift for Roy Oswalt, a resin bag that he and Roy had had a good laugh over, and that Lance now carried as a good luck charm. Nobody made the connection between this incident and the Astros' late-season collapse, not even Albert Pujols. Which was probably just as well, for everyone's sake.
I'd think it'd say something along the lines of: "The only winning move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess?"
I think you're right. Not sure if Getz or Matsui would start on the combo team.
EDIT: and I forgot Josh Fields on the Royals. Is he the RF?
Is this Bach disguised as Beethoven?
Berkman played almost a full season in CF, and he was surprisingly capable. He has also played the corner outfield positions for much of his career. The knee injury he suffered in a church-sponsored flag football game pretty much confined his future to 1st base in 2005. Berkman still says he is willing to play RF if the Astros want him to do so; however, that's not going to happen.
Berkman isn't a bad first baseman. For his career, he is barely positive (+0.5) at first base, which means he is probably average. But his UZR alternates good and bad each year at 1st base: 05, -6.8; 06 +5.6; 07 -2.0; 08 +6.7; 09 -5.2. Berkman is also known for alternating his up and down offensive seasons (though the down years aren't all that bad). If the pattern continues, he is due for an up year in 2010 on both offense and defense.
He's apparently better than Mike Jacobs.
In what way was being in Philly limiting Myers' potential? Non-snark, genuinely curious. It sure looked like he reached his potential in '05-'06.
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