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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, February 15, 2010

2010 ZiPS Projections - Houston Astros

I got an e-mail the other day asking me, since the Astros projections were upcoming, if I could outline a few scenarios that have the Astros going to the playoffs.  I’ve thought about it and I have the three most likely.

- Lee and Berkman play 162 games.  But the Astros also find defensive players that look exactly like them, so that when it comes time to bat, Lee and Berkman replaces those players using feats of subterfugue, like velcroed numbers and no names on the back.

- Given that Brian Moehler is signed and should not be pitching in the major leagues, the obvious solution is to train him to enter the dreams of opposing players and murder them in their sleep.

- Bring back the classic Astros jerseys.  You know the ones I’m talking about.  It won’t help them win games, but those jerseys, combined with stirrups, afros, and pornstaches, would make the team awesome, no matter what the win-loss record turns out to be.  And if there’s some real retro-fever, bring in Mike Scott and Bob Knepper.  Not as coaches, but as the 3/4 starters.

Seriously, the team has the obvious bright spots (Berkman, Lee, Wandy, Oswalt), but it’s generally mediocre everywhere with not the slightest pretense of depth at any position.  This is going to be a very hard team to write puff pieces for this season unless headlines like “Pedro Feliz:  Generally More Awesome Than A Pile of Cardboard Boxes” floats your boat.

If a lot goes right, the Astros might win 80 games.  This would be the worst possible scenario, because the second Ed Wade sees an opportunity to get within 10 games of the division leader this summer, the first green shoots of a previously barren farm system are going to head out of town for middle relievers.

Thumbs-down, if you hadn’t already guessed.  Quite a sad situation for what used to be a really solid organization.

Offensive Projections

Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Lance Berkman#        1b 34 .279 .392 .517 136 476 86 133 28 2 27 97 87 103 5 2   136
Carlos Lee           lf 34 .298 .349 .514 129 494 67 147 30 1 25 102 40 51 3 1   122
Hunter Pence         rf 27 .277 .333 .475 153 585 83 162 31 5 25 87 49 120 8 5   109
Chris Shelton         3b 30 .256 .333 .405 117 430 50 110 23 1 13 61 48 116 1 1   92
Jeff Keppinger       3b 30 .279 .334 .385 116 405 47 113 21 2 6 38 32 33 1 2   88
Mark Saccomanno       1b 30 .253 .299 .424 140 509 65 129 25 4 18 72 32 115 2 1   87
Jason Michaels       rf 34 .251 .319 .403 111 243 31 61 14 1 7 42 23 56 2 2   88
Michael Bourn*        cf 27 .260 .328 .354 142 466 73 121 18 7 4 30 46 112 34 7   79
Cory Sullivan*        cf 30 .269 .326 .372 127 390 50 105 18 5 4 38 33 71 8 4   85
John Gall           lf 32 .256 .316 .382 118 406 38 104 22 1 9 48 34 73 4 3   82
Kaz Matsui#          2b 34 .261 .315 .373 102 391 57 102 20 3 6 36 31 72 13 3   80
Alex Romero#        rf 26 .267 .319 .370 136 449 50 120 23 4 5 58 32 54 7 4   80
Geoff Blum#          3b 37 .251 .311 .384 103 307 31 77 15 1 8 43 25 52 0 1   81
Justin Towles         c   26 .243 .323 .375 95 301 41 73 15 2 7 42 26 65 4 4   83
Pedro Feliz         3b 35 .254 .297 .391 134 481 43 122 23 2 13 54 30 68 0 1   78
Aaron Boone         1b 37 .245 .320 .351 59 151 17 37 7 0 3 16 13 32 1 0   76
Jason Castro*        c   23 .243 .314 .352 126 486 54 118 25 2 8 62 48 111 2 2   75
German Duran         2b 25 .253 .295 .373 84 292 31 74 13 2 6 28 15 58 3 2   74
Brian Bogusevic*      lf 26 .238 .306 .336 110 408 49 97 18 2 6 41 37 109 10 2   69
Ray Sadler           cf 29 .229 .286 .382 126 463 53 106 20 3 15 62 32 127 4 4   73
Humberto Quintero     c   30 .251 .296 .362 80 235 22 59 12 1 4 24 10 48 0 1   72
Wladimir Sutil       ss 25 .264 .317 .323 128 477 71 126 20 1 2 39 30 65 19 10   69
Edwin Maysonet       ss 28 .248 .303 .335 113 355 43 88 17 1 4 30 27 78 3 1   68
Darin Erstad*        lf 36 .247 .304 .344 105 227 27 56 11 1 3 22 18 46 2 2   70
Chris Johnson         3b 25 .243 .279 .364 120 448 47 109 20 2 10 52 21 111 2 1   67
Thomas Manzella       ss 24 .247 .293 .346 129 514 59 127 25 4 6 47 33 110 7 4   67
Mitch Einertson       rf 24 .240 .288 .349 108 387 44 93 19 1 7 48 23 96 2 2   66
Jon Gaston*          lf 23 .190 .272 .378 147 564 80 107 23 10 21 71 60 242 5 2   68
Yordany Ramirez       cf 25 .249 .273 .371 130 458 49 114 22 2 10 50 14 83 11 6   67
Reggie Abercrombie     rf 29 .226 .266 .364 134 461 55 104 20 4 12 47 21 161 12 5   63
Jose Vallejo         2b 23 .242 .280 .326 129 509 46 123 18 5 5 40 26 108 13 3   59
Collin DeLome*        lf 24 .208 .267 .359 135 510 67 106 18 7 15 54 32 196 7 4   62
Oswaldo Navarro       ss 25 .237 .294 .297 122 418 43 99 17 1 2 35 30 92 5 5   56
Eli Iorg           rf 27 .226 .265 .333 72 252 26 57 11 2 4 27 12 76 7 3   56
Kevin Cash           c   32 .208 .277 .309 53 149 13 31 6 0 3 16 14 46 0 0   58

Defensive Projections

Name           CThr 1b     2b     3b     ss     lf     cf     rf    
Berkman#          Fr/96                             Pr/148
Lee                                   Pr/85            
Pence                                   Av/83   Fr/110 Av/93  
Shelton           Av/111       Fr/151                      
Keppinger           Av/83   Av/62   Fr/103 Pr/80   Av/83       Av/83  
Saccomanno         Fr/123       Pr/125                      
Michaels                                 Av/99   Pr/121 Av/99  
Bourn*                                  Vg/128 Av/107 Vg/128
Sullivan*                                Av/84   Fr/84      
Gall             Fr/65                   Fr/65            
Matsui#                Fr/93                            
Romero#                                Av/82   Fr/131 Av/118
Blum#            Fr/74   Fr/71   Av/67   Pr/85                  
Towles         Av                                      
Feliz                       Vg/83                      
Boone             Av/110       Pr/113                      
Castro*        Vg                                      
Duran                   Av/140 Av/140 Av/140                
Bogusevic*                              Av/92   Pr/92   Av/92  
Sadler                                 Vg/61   Av/92   Vg/92  
Quintero       Av                                      
Sutil                   Vg/146 Av/121 Av/121                
Maysonet                 Vg/119 Vg/119 Av/117 Av/119            
Erstad*            Av/91                   Vg/91   Av/66   Vg/91  
Johnson           Av/123       Av/123 Fr/148                
Manzella                           Vg/96                  
Einertson                               Vg/111 Fr/191 Vg/154
Gaston*                                Av/130       Av/130
Ramirez                                 Vg/136 Vg/136 Vg/136
Abercrombie                               Vg/115 Vg/115 Vg/115
Vallejo                 Vg/146                            
DeLome*                                Vg/164 Fr/159 Av/164
Navarro                 Av/122 Av/122 Av/129                
Iorg                                   Vg/173 Av/85   Vg/110
Cash           Av                                      

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name           PO   EX   VG   AV   FR   PO       COMP 1       COMP 2       COMP 3
BerkmanLance     1B   48%  35%  11%  5%  1%    BagwellJeff   MurrayEddie   DowningBrian
LeeCarlos       LF   33%  31%  16%  12%  8%      EnnisDel   FurilloCarl   MooreJohnny
PenceHunter     RF   12%  23%  22%  23%  19%  BrandtJackie   BraggsGlenn EncarnacionJuan
KeppingerJeff     3B   1%  8%  15%  27%  49%  O’ConnellDanny     NelsonBry   BridgesRocky
BournMichael     CF   6%  13%  28%  33%  21%    MorenoOmar     WinnRandy     JavierStan
SaccomannoMark   1B   0%  1%  5%  20%  73%    CromerD.T.  McPhailMarlin   MackaninPete
MichaelsJason     RF   1%  3%  5%  13%  78%    SmithMark     SwannPedro     KennedyBob
MatsuiKaz       2B   4%  8%  15%  28%  45%    TaylorTony   GutteridgeDon     AmaralRich
GallJohn       LF   0%  1%  3%  8%  88%    PiniellaLou     SwannPedro   MottolaChad
RomeroAlex       RF   0%  1%  2%  7%  90% SchoendienstRed   PowellHosken WilliamsDallas
BlumGeoff       3B   0%  3%  7%  17%  74%  PendletonTerry     WhiteFrank   CandaeleCasey
TowlesJ.R.      C   1%  7%  17%  39%  35%    WilsonJohn     AusmusBrad     PaulJosh
DuranGerman     2B   1%  2%  4%  14%  80%  ManriqueFred     PyeEddie   CastilloJose
CastroJason       C   0%  3%  9%  32%  57%    SkeelsAndy FitzgeraldMike   NewstromDoug
BogusevicBrian   LF   0%  0%  4%  17%  79%    CurryMike   RobertsDave   WaltonJerome
QuinteroHumberto   C   0%  2%  7%  25%  65%    HornerJim   DifeliceMike   MartinezBuck
SutilWladimir     SS   1%  1%  5%  20%  74%    RyanBrendan   AlomarSandy   MetcalfeMike
SadlerRay       CF   0%  1%  4%  15%  80%  JacksonDarrin   BufordDamon SandersAnthony
MaysonetEdwin     2B   1%  1%  2%  7%  88%      ShaveJon     LopezJuan     SiscoSteve
ErstadDarin     LF   0%  0%  0%  1%  99%    PrideCurtis WilliamsGerald     SwannPedro
JohnsonChris     3B   0%  0%  1%  5%  94%      LeonJose     ShawScott     UstBrant
RamirezYordany   CF   0%  0%  1%  8%  90%  GlanvilleDoug     SternAdam   BufordDamon
ManzellaThomas   SS   0%  1%  5%  18%  76%  DawkinsTravis LeMasterJohnnie     MearesPat
EinertsonMitch   RF   0%  0%  0%  1%  98%    WareJeremy     AutenJim   MartinBrian
GastonJonathan   LF   0%  1%  2%  4%  93%  BatesFletcher     BassJayson   LukachykRob
AbercrombieReggie RF   0%  0%  1%  2%  97%    BarkerSean   LezcanoCarlos     DavisButch
VallejoJose     2B   0%  0%  0%  3%  97% BonifacioEmilio   CastilloJuan   RodriguezLuis
DeLomeCollin     LF   0%  0%  1%  1%  98%  SaturriaLuisAbercrombieReggi   PrideCurtis

Name         .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB
BerkmanLance       23%    71%    58%    40%    2%    0%    34%    0%
LeeCarlos         49%    20%    55%    19%    3%    0%    24%    0%
PenceHunter       17%    6%    26%    8%    4%    10%    24%    0%
KeppingerJeff       23%    9%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BournMichael       8%    5%    0%    0%    0%    20%    0%    77%
SaccomannoMark       3%    0%    3%    0%    0%    1%    3%    0%
MichaelsJason       7%    4%    4%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
MatsuiKaz         9%    2%    1%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
GallJohn           5%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
RomeroAlex         11%    2%    0%    0%    0%    3%    0%    0%
BlumGeoff         6%    2%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
TowlesJ.R.        3%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
DuranGerman         7%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CastroJason         1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BogusevicBrian       1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
QuinteroHumberto     7%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
SutilWladimir       8%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    3%
SadlerRay         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
MaysonetEdwin       4%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ErstadDarin         7%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
JohnsonChris       2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
RamirezYordany       2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ManzellaThomas       2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
EinertsonMitch       2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
GastonJonathan       0%    0%    2%    0%    0%    52%    9%    0%
AbercrombieReggie     0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    2%    0%    0%
VallejoJose         1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    3%    0%    0%
DeLomeCollin       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    22%    0%    0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Wandy Rodriguez*      28   3.86 12 10 31 31   179.1 176   77 20   56 162 114
Roy Oswalt           32   3.98 10   9 31 31   192.0 200   85 20   47 147 111
Bud Norris           25   4.78   8 10 28 27   141.1 149   75 16   70 127   92
Brett Myers           29   4.83   6   8 33 18   117.1 122   63 21   40 104   91
Shane Loux           30   5.27   4   6 28 12   95.2 115   56 10   34   44   84
Brian Moehler         38   5.29   6 11 25 25   143.0 173   84 20   43   80   83
Mike Hampton*        37   5.30   5   8 20 20   103.2 121   61 13   41   65   83
Josh Banks           27   5.54   6 12 32 23   149.1 179   92 24   44   89   80
Felipe Paulino         26   5.71   4   8 21 18   93.0 109   59 14   47   78   77
Polin Trinidad*        25   5.88   6 14 27 26   153.0 184 100 30   47   91   75
Jose Capellan         29   5.91   4   9 35 18   112.2 139   74 17   47   72   75
Josh Muecke*          28   6.12   5 12 30 22   135.1 161   92 24   69   76   72
Yorman Bazardo         25   6.14   5 13 32 24   146.2 188 100 23   57   79   72
Gustavo Chacin*        29   6.40   2   7 15 14   71.2   91   51 13   30   35   69
Brad James           26   6.54   4 10 23 22   104.2 132   76 14   68   47   68
Tyler Lumsden*        27   6.78   3   8 29 13   86.1 112   65 12   53   37   65

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Brandon Lyon         30   3.52   6   4 66   0   71.2   67   28   7   23   54 125
Tim Byrdak*          36   4.19   2   1 65   0   58.0   50   27   8   30   57 105
Doug Brocail         43   4.24   3   3 48   0   46.2   47   22   5   19   35 104
Matthew Lindstrom       30   4.33   3   3 67   1   60.1   63   29   6   24   52 102
Bill Sadler           28   4.35   3   3 37   8   68.1   63   33   7   40   64 101
Samuel Gervacio       25   4.35   4   4 59   0   72.1   70   35   8   34   78 101
Alberto Arias         26   4.43   4   4 44   4   67.0   72   33   5   29   50   99
Chia-Jen Lo           24   4.55   1   2 44   0   59.1   55   30   5   43   61   97
Henry Villar         23   4.59   3   4 45   3   86.1   92   44 11   31   73   96
Roy Corcoran         30   4.60   3   3 48   0   60.2   63   31   4   34   39   96
Jeff Fulchino         30   4.68   4   5 45   6   84.2   90   44   9   34   67   94
Chris Sampson         32   4.81   4   5 46   7   88.0 100   47   9   26   48   92
Casey Daigle         29   4.92   3   4 48   0   60.1   63   33   8   33   49   90
Fernando Abad*        24   5.02   4   6 47   2   86.0   97   48 13   21   66   88
Matt Nevarez         23   5.03   2   3 38   0   34.0   33   19   4   25   34   88
Jon Switzer*          30   5.06   2   3 48   0   58.2   64   33   8   22   46   87
Armando Benitez       37   5.21   2   2 20   0   19.0   19   11   4   8   18   84
Wesley Wright*        25   5.30   3   5 56   0   56.0   58   33   9   34   55   83
Gary Majewski         30   5.32   2   3 59   0   64.1   77   38   8   25   40   83
Evan Englebrook       28   5.48   2   4 33   1   47.2   56   29   5   26   28   81
Matt Ginter           32   5.56   3   6 30   9   79.1   98   49 11   26   46   79
Jose Valdez           27   5.97   2   6 42   2   57.1   61   38   9   39   45   74

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player         PO     TOP   MID   BOT         COMP 1         COMP 2         COMP 3
RodriguezWandy   SP     53%  43%  3%      BlueVida     KnepperBob     FlanaganMike
OswaltRoy       SP     42%  54%  4%    BurkettJohn       ClarkMark       SeleAaron
ByrdakTim       RP     22%  50%  28%      VilloneRon       MahayRon   MartinezTippy
BrocailDoug     RP     30%  39%  31%      MesaJose     WilhelmHoyt     McMahonDon
LindstromMatt     RP     14%  54%  31%    ChifferFloyd   CarrascoHector     CunnaneWill
SadlerBilly     RP     14%  55%  31%    SmithGeorge   WilliamsFrank   D’AcquistoJohn
GervacioSamuel   RP     18%  56%  27%      DevlinBob   GuanteCecilio     KrawczykRay
AriasAlberto     RP     13%  51%  36%    VuckovichPete     DipotoJerry       MastnyTom
LoChia-Jen       RP     14%  45%  40%    ThurbergTom     RiveraSaul       InnisJeff
VillarHenry     RP     6%  50%  44%    PattersonDave     LooperBraden   BrandenburgMark
CorcoranRoy     RP     12%  42%  45%    AbernathyTed   WilliamsCharlie     StanhouseDon
FulchinoJeff     RP     7%  47%  46%      AdamsTerry       SmallMark     DipotoJerry
NorrisBud       SP     14%  56%  30%      MooreMike     SchmidtJason   NippertDustin
SampsonChris     RP     11%  40%  49%    BorbonPedro     RussellJack       TaylorRon
DaigleCasey     RP     3%  35%  62%      FainoJeff     GwynMarcus     BorowskiJoe
AbadFernando     RP     2%  36%  62%      KeyChris   RiveraRoberto     PetersonMark
NevarezMatthew   RP     12%  31%  57%    SadlerBilly     ThurbergTom       InnisJeff
BenitezArmando   RP     16%  35%  49%    ServiceScott     SeanezRudy   MontgomeryJeff
LouxShane       SP     4%  27%  69%    CarrollOwnie   MacFaydenDanny       MillerBob
MoehlerBrian     SP     6%  27%  67%  SpringerDennis     SparksSteve     DonovanDick
HamptonMike     SP     6%  31%  63%      KnepperBob     LangstonMark     RogersKenny
WrightWesley     RP     3%  19%  79%      CarmanDon TankersleyTaylor       PenaJesus
EnglebrookEvan   RP     2%  17%  82%    BumsteadMike     SeguraJose     GreenSteve
GinterMatt       RP     4%  20%  76%    SorensenLary     GravesDanny     CondreyClay
PaulinoFelipe     SP     1%  22%  77%    HaynesJimmy       HaasDave       CloudeKen
TrinidadPolin     SP     1%  9%  91%    MarshallRandy   PhillipsHeath     MacLaneEvan
CapellanJose     SP     0%  5%  95%    StokesBrian     LiraFelipe     BruhertMike
MueckeJosh       SP     0%  5%  95%      SmithDan   ProchaskaMike   RemlingerMike
BazardoYorman     SP     0%  5%  95%    ReedBrandon     LehrJustin     AhearnePat
JamesBrad       SP     0%  2%  98%    ParedesCarlos   GogolewskiDoug   BuglovskyChris
LumsdenTyler     SP     0%  1%  99%    McDowellRoger       WhiteMatt     WadeTerrell

Player         130 ERA+  100 ERA+  K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9

<1
RodriguezWandy 15% 80% 54% 5% 54%
OswaltRoy 10% 73% 6% 37% 66%
ByrdakTim 16% 65% 78% 0% 34%
BrocailDoug 24% 63% 16% 5% 54%
LindstromMatt 10% 55% 33% 1% 80%
SadlerBilly 10% 56% 63% 0% 74%
GervacioSamuel 14% 62% 92% 0% 58%
GervacioSamuel 14% 62% 92% 0% 57%
AriasAlberto 10% 57% 6% 1% 86%
LoChia-Jen 10% 52% 82% 0% 87%
VillarHenry 4% 44% 30% 2% 52%
CorcoranRoy 9% 43% 5% 1% 90%
FulchinoJeff 5% 42% 12% 0% 60%
NorrisBud 1% 33% 50% 0% 55%
SampsonChris 9% 43% 4% 23% 68%
DaigleCasey 2% 25% 22% 0% 51%
AbadFernando 2% 28% 9% 37% 26%
NevarezMatthew 8% 34% 69% 0% 68%
BenitezArmando 16% 38% 57% 9% 30%
LouxShane 3% 24% 0% 4% 67%
MoehlerBrian 2% 14% 2% 14% 34%
HamptonMike 1% 15% 2% 1% 47%
WrightWesley 2% 16% 71% 0% 25%
EnglebrookEvan 2% 14% 1% 0% 59%
GinterMatt 3% 17% 2% 11% 41%
PaulinoFelipe 0% 6% 29% 0% 19%
TrinidadPolin 0% 2% 0% 5% 1%
CapellanJose 0% 3% 2% 1% 25%
MueckeJosh 0% 1% 0% 0% 7%
BazardoYorman 0% 0% 0% 0% 11%
JamesBrad 0% 0% 0% 0% 35%
LumsdenTyler 0% 1% 0% 0% 33%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name           BA OBP SLG   G   AB     R     H   2B 3B   HR RBI   BB   SO SB CS OPS+
BerkmanLance   .288 .400 .528 2384 8351   1502   2402 529 37 468 1650 1528   1761 110 52 139
MatsuiKaz     .267 .320 .381 888 3328   485   889 179 27   49 307   259   605 115 38   82
LeeCarlos     .290 .342 .496 2444 9317   1339   2706 542 19 446 1725   740   1155 133 50 115
PenceHunter     .275 .330 .465 1380 5291   716   1455 269 48 214 745   429   1115 78 59 106

Player         W   L   S   ERA     G   GS   IP     H   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
MyersBrett     106   104   49 4.55   405   272 1769   1805   278   619   1509   96
OswaltRoy       205   135   0 3.69   503   490 3135   3201   303   769   2482   118
RodriguezWandy   131   127   0 4.29   358   352 2024   2062   247   712   1752   102

All figures in % based on projection playing time

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

 

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

A’s

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Indians

Mariners

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees




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Dan Szymborski Posted: February 15, 2010 at 01:22 AM | 49 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Patriot87 Posted: February 15, 2010 at 01:40 AM (#3460372)
Bourn got boned
   2. Dan The Mediocre Posted: February 15, 2010 at 01:45 AM (#3460373)
So you project 5 Astros to be above average, 1 about average, and the rest below average?

That is a painful projection.
   3. Autobahn Posted: February 15, 2010 at 02:00 AM (#3460384)
I was going to say Chris Shelton's position was a mistake having never had any significant time at the hot corner, but then i checked his 2009 minor season and he has 83 games at third.

Then i thought maybe you could do an offensive/defensive platoon with Feliz and maybe get some nice production out of that.

Then i noticed his 15 errors.
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 15, 2010 at 02:01 AM (#3460385)
Bourn would have better projections if he'd avoid having full seasons of a 57 OPS+.
   5. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: February 15, 2010 at 02:02 AM (#3460386)
This team could be bad for a long time. The minor league system is pretty bare of any interesting names as well.

They should really trade Berkman, Lee, and Oswalt for some prospects and just start over.
   6. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 15, 2010 at 02:02 AM (#3460387)
I hope Ray Sadler finds his way back to the majors. On a team this bad, he might.

I've liked him ever since he got called up to the Pirates as a last-minute injury replacement, and Lloyd McClendon mistook him for a construction worker.
   7. Ryan Lind Posted: February 15, 2010 at 02:09 AM (#3460389)
That is a pretty big dropoff from the third best hitter to the fourth best. Makes the Jays projection look almost OK.

I had no idea that Aaron Boone was still in baseball.

And is Mark Saccomanno a real person or was the ZiPS machine watching Seinfeld?
   8. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: February 15, 2010 at 02:20 AM (#3460391)
ed wade's really bringing the band back together. brett myers, jason michaels, and michael bourn. plus guys like darin erstad, kaz matsui, doug brocail, and armando benitez (really? armando benitez?), it's like a greatest hits of his worst disasters.


all you need is luis castillo.
   9. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 15, 2010 at 02:31 AM (#3460395)
Well, some of those guys are gone and just here for convenience. Brocail's already announced his retirement and Boone's hinted at it.
   10. Tricky Dick Posted: February 15, 2010 at 03:00 AM (#3460409)
I had higher hopes for Felipe Paulino, and I still think there is a good chance he will have an ERA in the 4.5 range. It's surprising that the probability of K/9 greater than 8 is only 29%, when K/9 in 2009 was 8.57. I think Bourn is greatly underrated here. I think his OPS will be in the low to mid 700's. And, his defense in CF is definitely better than average. His UZR and Fielding Bible results are both well above average in CF. The relief pitching looks kind of ugly, with only Lyon appearing to have a decent projection. I think Arias and Fulchino could turn out to be good, based on last year's results, but I can see how ZIPS would forecast worse results until they establish that they can repeat the 09 results.
   11. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: February 15, 2010 at 03:04 AM (#3460411)
really? armando benitez?


I am not kidding when I say that I had thought that Armando Benitez was dead. I could have sworn I read something about him dying of heart disease at some point over the last year or two.
   12. JJ1986 Posted: February 15, 2010 at 03:08 AM (#3460414)
I could have sworn I read something about him dying of heart disease at some point over the last year or two.


He pulled a Chase Wright in the minors somewhere last year. He might as well be dead.
   13. oldjacket Posted: February 15, 2010 at 03:15 AM (#3460418)
Is it me or is Sadler's ERA low for giving up 40 walks in 68 IP?
   14. Tricky Dick Posted: February 15, 2010 at 03:20 AM (#3460421)
Benitez played for Newark in the independent league last season, put up decent numbers, and was signed for the Round Rock Express roster late in the season to help replace minor leaguers who had been called up to the big leagues. As I recall, Enos Cabell watched him pitch in the independent league and said he still looked good. The sample size was small in Round Rock, but Benitez didn't pitch well. (4 HR in 8.1 innings.) As far as I know, he hasn't been signed to repeat in AAA.
   15. GregD Posted: February 15, 2010 at 03:23 AM (#3460422)
Carlos Lee should be paying close attention to the makeup of the Veterans' Committee. He's going to look like an actual ballplayer once he's safely retired and no one remembers his "range" or his "effort."
   16. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: February 15, 2010 at 03:50 AM (#3460424)
My understanding is that Oswalt, Lee, and Berkman either have NTCs or would rather retire than play for a team other than the Astros. That makes blowing up and starting over pretty much impossible. Vain attempts at contending might actually be the best strategy (although the execution is definitely lacking).
   17. birdlives is one crazy ninja Posted: February 15, 2010 at 04:44 AM (#3460441)
Where's Miguel Tejada?
   18. Justin T., Director of Somethin Posted: February 15, 2010 at 05:02 AM (#3460445)
As someone about to spend his first baseball season in the tv territory of the Astros, thank goodness the Rangers might be interesting. And for MLB.TV.
   19. base ball chick Posted: February 15, 2010 at 05:44 AM (#3460461)
wandy rodriguez is 31 not 28 - not sure why you think he is going to regreass that much

oswalt berkman and lee all have complete NTC. lee is being paid 18 mill a year for 3 years and if you think that drayton gonna eat money to trade him just for minor leaguers, i got this bridge to see yall. it's berkman's last year of his contract and he doesn't want to be traded. oswalt might could agree, but he has back problems and has been getting worse over the past 3 years. the trading him ship has sailed

and dan is unforetunately right about ed wade and his middle reliever thingy


i can't believe how many people really REALLY believe that pedro freaking feliz is this HUGE upgrade over geoff blum because he's a "winner" or something

tejada took himself and his 30 GIDPs/year back to the orioles
   20. Ryan Lind Posted: February 15, 2010 at 05:51 AM (#3460464)
I think what birdlives is getting at is that Tejada wasn't included on the Orioles projections, and isn't included here. He seems to have fallen through the cracks.
   21. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 15, 2010 at 06:32 AM (#3460476)
297/336/433 for Tejada.
   22. Walt Davis Posted: February 15, 2010 at 07:02 AM (#3460480)
Oh my god!

Is this worse than the Royals?

Are they playing with 8 guys or is Wladimir Sutil really the starting SS?

And filed under things I never thought I'd see -- Wandy Rodriguez projects better than Roy Oswalt.

The Astros always somehow turn out decent but this year ... I don't think there's a soul this side of Jesus Christ's that Beelzebub wants badly enough to turn this into a 500 team.

They will now finish 10 games ahead of the Cubs.
   23. Tricky Dick Posted: February 15, 2010 at 07:12 AM (#3460482)
Manzella will be handed the shortstop job. I don't think this experiment will work out well, because Manzella isn't much of a hitter. Ever since they drafted him, the Astros have viewed Manzella as the "next Adam Everett" based on both his defensive and offensive profile. Manzella truly has to play defense as well as Adam Everett to justify the kind of offense he is likely to bring. I doubt that his defense will be that good...but we will see.
   24. rlc Posted: February 15, 2010 at 07:46 AM (#3460487)
Who is John Gall?
   25. Walt Davis Posted: February 15, 2010 at 09:57 AM (#3460498)
Who is John Gall?

used to be in the Cards system I think, AAA lifer. Projected really well for a couple seasons I recall. We've been through all the Rand jokes so don't go there. :-)
   26. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: February 15, 2010 at 10:12 AM (#3460500)
oswalt berkman and lee all have complete NTC. lee is being paid 18 mill a year for 3 years and if you think that drayton gonna eat money to trade him just for minor leaguers, i got this bridge to see yall. it's berkman's last year of his contract and he doesn't want to be traded. oswalt might could agree, but he has back problems and has been getting worse over the past 3 years. the trading him ship has sailed

This is terrible. Lee probably doesn't have a lot of trade value, based on how horrible defensive OF are being treated in the FA market now. Ditto Berkman. That leaves Oswalt and his back. I can't see trading them just to save money either since the prospect returns aren't likely to be good. It might be that Wade is being entirely rational in his approach. They're going to suck no matter what, so why not keep some guys around that fans can come out to see.
   27. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: February 15, 2010 at 12:02 PM (#3460507)
Is this worse than the Royals?

Yeah, no.
   28. Mike Webber Posted: February 15, 2010 at 03:10 PM (#3460535)
Is this worse than the Royals?


I don't know Kendall, I rarely get to think the Royals are in better shape than anyone else. Don't ruin this for me!
   29. Mike Webber Posted: February 15, 2010 at 03:19 PM (#3460538)
Hey Dan,
How do you account for a batter like Michael Bourn had 17 bunt hits in 37 attempts(20 of which are at-bats), as far as BABIP?

Not questioning your Bourn projection, just more of a technical question.
   30. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 15, 2010 at 03:54 PM (#3460553)
Just looking at the "age" column for the hitters is pretty disturbing, even beyond the very high rankings of such luminaries as Jeff Keppinger, Jason Michaels, Chris Shelton, John Gall and Bob Saccamanno.
34
34
27 (Pence)
30
30
30
34
27 (Bourn)
30
32
34
26 (Alex Romero)
37
26 (a catcher!!!!!!!!)
35
37
23
25
26
29
30
.........

They do have a few youngsters projected to be absolutely terrible, so there's some hope.
   31. bigglou115 Posted: February 15, 2010 at 05:13 PM (#3460604)
At least looking at Berkman's projected career line is interesting. He'll probably edge Chipper in HR but not AVG (I know, but if you think the HOF voters aren't going to consider the fact that Chipper has the highest switch hitter career average your crazy). Both guys have the "cause he's Chipper Jones/Lance Berkman" factor, but I don't see either being the slam dunk that the writers seem to claim they are.
   32. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: February 15, 2010 at 05:52 PM (#3460626)
How is Chipper not a slam dunk?
   33. rlc Posted: February 15, 2010 at 06:36 PM (#3460660)
We've been through all the Rand jokes so don't go there. :-)

Walt has shrugged.
   34. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: February 15, 2010 at 06:52 PM (#3460668)
It seems fairly obvious at this point that this Szymborski character is biased against the Angels. How else could one explain his insistence on projecting the team with the most wins in baseball over the past couple of years after all of the other teams?

Due to this obvious inability to look at the matter objectively, I reject all of his conclusions.
   35. with Glavinesque control and Madduxian poise Posted: February 15, 2010 at 07:06 PM (#3460673)
Chipper has 9000+ PA at Berkman's current level of career OPS+ (147), if you leave off Chipper's first year and this last year, both of which probably added value. So unless you think Berkman has another 3000 PA at 147 OPS+ in him, Chipper has a better career, as a hitter, than Berkman. Oh, and then you realize that Chipper's a 3B.

I'm not sure why you think Chipper and Lance are so close.
   36. Greg Franklin Posted: February 15, 2010 at 07:29 PM (#3460681)
I was going to say Chris Shelton's position was a mistake having never had any significant time at the hot corner, but then i checked his 2009 minor season and he has 83 games at third.

It was a mutual decision between the Mariner people and Shelton's people in 2009. He had no shot of sticking in Seattle as a platoon 1B/DH, and at least two 1B in the system (Jeff Clement, Mike Karp) were going to get playing time ahead of him at AAA, so he played 3B. He's not a third baseman, so it's an understandable mistake.

I miss the inside jokes about Ed Wade's middle relievers that should have festooned this thread. Out of the 18 relievers in the ODDIBE table above, I'm kind of surprised that only 1 of their 54 comps is a recent Philly middle reliever (Matt Ginter -> Clay Condrey). For old times you could include Jose Mesa or Don Carman.
   37. Walt Davis Posted: February 15, 2010 at 08:23 PM (#3460704)
I dunno:

Astros lineup OPS+: 136 (1b), 122 (LF), 109 (RF), 79 (CF), 80 (2B), 83/75 (C), 78 (3B), 67 (ss) with equally bad stuff on the bench.

Royals lineup OPS+: 116 (1B), 107 (LF/CF), 99 (2B), 95 (3B), 96 (DH?), 79 (SS), 73 (C), 91 (LF/CF) plus I can't remember or figure out who's in RF.

Thing is, I'm not sure the Astros' lineup is better than the Royals and, if it is, it's by the slimmest of margins. Yes, Berkman's a stud the Royals don't have but they do have a lot of 95 OPS+ vs. 80 OPS+ advantages to help make up for it.

On the pitching side, you have the opposite extreme with Greinke and Soria being great and nobody else on the Royals even being league average vs. 2 good starters, Brandon Lyon, a flotilla of 100 ERA+ relievers and a somewhat better group of 6th starters masquerading as 3rd starters.

Now, put these two teams together and .... I'm still not that impressed:

LF: Lee or DeJesus
CF: Bourn or DeJesus
RF: Pence
1B: Berkman (or Butler if he's better defensively and we're in the AL)
2B: Callaspo I guess
SS: ugh
3B: Gordon
C: ugh
DH: Butler or Lee

Awesome top 3 starters and 2 good relievers. Good lineup I suppose with C and SS being the only two sub-100 OPS+ type bats. Defense looks pretty horrible, especially if we play Betancourt (and any days we've got Lee/DeJesus/Pence in the OF too).

Dan, what sayeth ZiPS on the awesome Royals-Astros matchup?
   38. DCW3 Posted: February 15, 2010 at 08:51 PM (#3460719)
1B: Berkman (or Butler if he's better defensively and we're in the AL)

I don't think Butler is supposed to be better than anybody defensively.

And I thought that the Royals were going with Getz as their second baseman, for some reason.
   39. Grunthos Posted: February 15, 2010 at 09:07 PM (#3460730)
"using feats of subterfugue"

The summer sun of Texas beat down upon the stadium, but to no avail. Houstonians had never had any truck with the sun since the invention of air conditioning. It would have to look elsewhere for entertainment.

Oblivious to the photon deflection overhead, Albert Pujols stepped to the plate. He was, as always, calm and focused. Even his fond memories of this stadium and this opponent had no place in his thinking just now. It was the sixth inning, Wandy Rodriguez was pitching shutout ball with a two run lead, and the Cardinals needed some offense. They needed Albert. And Albert was prepared.

He dug in. With one out and no one on, his responsibility was clear: take whatever Rodriguez gave him. Be alert to the possibilities. Go with the flow of the game, and take your chance when it comes. The murmur of the crowd, currently lulled here in the middle stages, did not impinge on his consciousness. Only his stance, his ritual, and the pitcher sixty feet away.

And... something else. At the edge of thought. So subliminal, it was almost drowned out by the movement of the air around his bat as he cocked it above his shoulder. He wouldn't have realized it was there at all, but this was his third at-bat, and the repetition was breaking through to his conscious mind. It was as if... it was as if his every thought and action was echoed, almost immediately, a double-take by a ghost of himself standing at the plate not quite at that very moment. Sort of an instant deja-vu effect.

Albert briefly shook his head. He had never let his mind play tricks on him before, and he certainly wasn't starting now. He focused on Wandy Rodriguez, on the pitcher's eyes staring back at him, mano-a-mano. Yes, that's it. That's right. Wind up and deliver. I'll be there to meet you.

The left-hander leaned back, coiled, and fired. Albert could see the seams spinning as the ball departed the pitcher's grip, and a lifetime of muscle memory kicked into action. Fastball, low and in. But not in enough! His bat spun forward with grace and power, in a motion recognizable to all. He's locked in on this one, everyone in the crowd knew it. The ball was ticketed for the upper deck.

Then it was over. Albert stood in the batter's box, bat still loosely held to his left side, not quite believing his ears. He couldn't possibly have heard the ball smack snugly into the catcher's mitt. No contact at all! But he'd had that one. Everything had been just right.

And, discordantly, at the outer limit of his mind, the glee of the home run he had just hit - or hadn't he? - rang in ethereal chorale. He could feel the echo of success. And yet, here he was, standing at the plate, strike three sounding from the umpire's hoarse throat. And somewhere, someone was laughing hysterically. Albert didn't know how he knew it, but he knew that he'd been played somehow. And he also knew he would never be able to explain it to anyone.

Later in the year, when the voodoo doll fell out of Lance Berkman's pocket, he claimed it was it was a gag gift for Roy Oswalt, a resin bag that he and Roy had had a good laugh over, and that Lance now carried as a good luck charm. Nobody made the connection between this incident and the Astros' late-season collapse, not even Albert Pujols. Which was probably just as well, for everyone's sake.
   40. The Essex Snead Posted: February 15, 2010 at 09:43 PM (#3460755)
Dan, what sayeth ZiPS on the awesome Royals-Astros matchup?

I'd think it'd say something along the lines of: "The only winning move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess?"
   41. Walt Davis Posted: February 16, 2010 at 12:22 AM (#3460834)
And I thought that the Royals were going with Getz as their second baseman, for some reason.

I think you're right. Not sure if Getz or Matsui would start on the combo team.

EDIT: and I forgot Josh Fields on the Royals. Is he the RF?
   42. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: February 16, 2010 at 12:30 AM (#3460836)
using feats of subterfugue

Is this Bach disguised as Beethoven?
   43. Tricky Dick Posted: February 16, 2010 at 01:13 AM (#3460865)
Oh, and then you realize that Chipper's a 3B.


Berkman played almost a full season in CF, and he was surprisingly capable. He has also played the corner outfield positions for much of his career. The knee injury he suffered in a church-sponsored flag football game pretty much confined his future to 1st base in 2005. Berkman still says he is willing to play RF if the Astros want him to do so; however, that's not going to happen.

Berkman isn't a bad first baseman. For his career, he is barely positive (+0.5) at first base, which means he is probably average. But his UZR alternates good and bad each year at 1st base: 05, -6.8; 06 +5.6; 07 -2.0; 08 +6.7; 09 -5.2. Berkman is also known for alternating his up and down offensive seasons (though the down years aren't all that bad). If the pattern continues, he is due for an up year in 2010 on both offense and defense.
   44. Jim Wisinski Posted: February 16, 2010 at 04:14 AM (#3460955)
I don't think Butler is supposed to be better than anybody defensively.


He's apparently better than Mike Jacobs.
   45. cardsfanboy Posted: February 17, 2010 at 12:40 AM (#3461604)
is there any chance that getting out of Philly will allow Myers to reach his potential? I wouldn't be surprised at all if the top three starting pitchers for the Astros all break 120 era+. (wouldn't predict it mind you, but I don't think it is out of the question either) I'll take the over on Keppinger also.
   46. Delorians Posted: February 17, 2010 at 01:06 AM (#3461626)
As an Astros fan, I realize the team will be bad for a while no matter what happens. Therefore, I would just assume that Oswalt and Berkman remain on the team for a few more years, to compile enough counting stats to deserve having their numbers retired, so that we end up with four numbers retired from the World Series team of 2005.
   47. Accent Shallow Posted: February 17, 2010 at 01:46 AM (#3461665)
is there any chance that getting out of Philly will allow Myers to reach his potential?

In what way was being in Philly limiting Myers' potential? Non-snark, genuinely curious. It sure looked like he reached his potential in '05-'06.
   48. sinicalypse Posted: March 26, 2010 at 11:51 PM (#3486974)
hear hear, grunthos, that was a quality read!
   49. sinicalypse Posted: March 26, 2010 at 11:51 PM (#3486975)
oh and i'd be remiss if i didn't mention that my great hope for the astros this year is the return of babe shelton. he's able to give us an exciting month of baseball, and i'm certainly hoping for one.

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