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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, October 12, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City Royals

What can you say about the Royals?

The people who rightly criticize the Royals for not taking into account any advances in baseball thought in the last 30 years are actually missing the main problem with the Royals.  It’s simply that they don’t seem to utilize any kind of rational thought process at all.

Teams can still be plenty successful without having a front office full of statnerds.  Traits like creativity and a clear outline of short and long-term goals can be found in non-stat front offices.  The Royals do not possess those traits.

One could write a doctoral thesis on the management bloopers of the Royals, but the primary problems of the Royals can be distilled quite well from just two transations.  Namely, the use of Bloomquist in rightfield and the Betancourt trade.
In both situations, the Royals showed no ability to adjust to unexpected situations.

In the former, the Royals, a team going nowhere, couldn’t find anything better to do than give 105 starts to a pretty generic utility player in his 30s.  The idea that they couldn’t find anyone to get that playing time is absurd.  Take a look at Garrett Jones in Pittsburgh.  He’s unlikely to be some superstar going forward or anything, but the Pirates found a player who might actually have a bit of value over the next 6 years, something that never would have happened if they decided to bring in Juan Castro or something.

In the case of Betancourt, the team once again panicked when a problem arose and having no idea what to fix it or even apply a tourniquet, they randomly throw prospects for a player that nobody wanted.  If only the Royals spent as much time analyzing players as they did carpet-bombing the press with ridiculous quotes about Betancourt’s ability and having their feelings hurt by mean ol’ Rany Jazayerli, perhaps the franchise wouldn’t look like an expansion team in a league with a horribly unfair expansion draft.

A lot of people like to point out the Royals as an example of injustice in baseball’s finances, but the Royals being where they are seems to be completely fair to me.  Should Rick Bayless or Wylie Dufresne be forced to pay a percentage of their revenues to an 4-year-old in Peoria feeding Play-Doh spaghetti to his parents?

Offensive Projections

Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Billy Butler         1b 24 .293 .355 .475 160 600 76 176 39 2 22 90 58 97 1 0   116
David DeJesus*        lf 30 .285 .357 .435 138 540 80 154 28 7 13 68 52 83 7 7   107
Alberto Callaspo#      2b 27 .290 .345 .416 122 435 58 126 24 5 7 49 38 40 2 2   99
Kila Kaaihue         1b 25 .255 .350 .403 133 471 63 120 23 1 15 58 68 95 1 1   98
Alex Gordon*        3b 26 .248 .333 .415 114 419 58 104 24 2 14 51 47 112 9 2   95
Jose Guillen         rf 34 .265 .322 .431 105 392 46 104 21 1 14 62 24 74 2 0   96
Mark Teahen*        3b 28 .265 .328 .420 142 528 70 140 29 4 15 56 46 130 8 2   95
Brayan Pena#        c   28 .281 .328 .413 95 310 34 87 18 1 7 34 20 34 4 4   93
Mike Jacobs*        dh 29 .242 .301 .441 126 438 49 106 22 1 21 62 36 117 1 0   92
Coco Crisp#          cf 30 .257 .328 .382 93 327 46 84 15 4 6 29 35 55 18 4   86
Ryan Shealy         1b 30 .249 .320 .391 78 289 30 72 14 0 9 38 27 75 0 0   86
Scott Thorman*        1b 28 .256 .300 .432 117 398 40 102 20 1 16 48 21 85 5 2   89
J.R. House           c   30 .269 .316 .391 124 476 54 128 26 1 10 53 32 66 1 2   85
Mike Aviles         ss 29 .275 .306 .403 100 397 51 109 21 3 8 42 18 58 6 2   85
Tug Hulett*          2b 27 .253 .324 .380 118 439 61 111 23 3 9 42 46 100 10 4   85
Mitch Maier*        cf 28 .268 .323 .378 130 447 57 120 22 3 7 43 35 83 9 4   84
Jordan Parraz         rf 25 .263 .332 .374 100 388 49 102 21 2 6 42 31 78 12 9   85
Willie Bloomquist     rf 32 .271 .326 .361 97 277 40 75 10 3 3 19 22 49 15 5   81
John Buck           c   29 .227 .297 .412 95 308 34 70 16 1 13 44 27 87 0 1   84
Brian Buchanan       dh 36 .255 .300 .389 42 149 16 38 8 0 4 22   9 32 2 0   80
Miguel Olivo         c   31 .242 .276 .435 105 372 39 90 17 2 17 50 14 110 4 2   83
Josh Anderson*        lf 27 .269 .311 .352 138 472 64 127 19 4 4 37 24 70 30 7   74
Johnny Giavotella     2b 22 .259 .316 .367 112 433 71 112 23 3 6 41 36 58 14 9   79
Yuniesky Betancourt*    ss 28 .271 .297 .390 144 513 57 139 29 4 8 51 20 45 5 4   79
Tim Raines Jr.#      cf 30 .254 .290 .381 103 362 49 92 16 3 8 39 18 76 17 3   75
Cody Clark           c   28 .253 .301 .385 59 182 20 46 10 1 4 20 10 35 1 1   79
John Suomi*          c   29 .256 .305 .374 66 219 25 56 12 1 4 23 14 38 0 2   78
Mike Moustakas*      3b 21 .250 .290 .390 133 525 61 131 28 2 14 69 28 107 7 7   77
Joseph Dickerson*      lf 23 .261 .319 .351 77 291 31 76 13 2 3 29 21 56 12 9   76
Irving Falu#        ss 27 .271 .318 .334 118 458 56 124 17 3 2 36 32 46 11 8   72
Chris Lubanski*      lf 25 .233 .288 .362 88 326 37 76 15 3 7 32 26 88 5 3   70
Jeffrey Howell       c   27 .245 .290 .337 76 261 23 64 13 1 3 27 15 56 1 3   65
Jose Duarte         cf 25 .244 .298 .319 128 492 62 120 19 3 4 39 37 105 19 10   63
Eric Hosmer*        1b 20 .222 .289 .325 111 415 36 92 19 3 6 54 39 115 2 2   61
Tommy Murphy#        cf 30 .236 .295 .326 99 356 41 84 16 2 4 21 28 88 16 8   63
Luis Hernandez#      ss 26 .258 .292 .322 108 357 37 92 15 1 2 30 17 50 4 4   62
Jeff Bianchi         ss 23 .239 .275 .336 119 464 54 111 23 2 6 48 23 115 12 5   60
Mario Lisson         ss 26 .231 .278 .331 132 498 52 115 24 1 8 51 28 127 17 8   60
Cory Aldridge*        rf 31 .242 .249 .393 91 331 31 80 16 2 10 39   2 94 2 3   80
Derrick Robinson#      cf 22 .233 .274 .304 127 527 66 123 20 4 3 37 28 115 43 19   52

Defensive Projections

Name           CThr 1b     2b     3b     ss     lf     cf     rf    
Butler             Fr/148                                
DeJesus*                                Ex/33   Fr/91   Av/91  
Callaspo#                Fr/120 Av/120 Fr/120                
Kaaihue           Av/168                                
Gordon*            Av/113       Av/113                      
Guillen                                 Pr/80       Pr/154
Teahen*            Av/107       Fr/107       Fr/99       Fr/99  
Pena#          Av   Av/120                 Fr/120       Fr/120
Jacobs*            Pr/191                                
Crisp#                                      Vg/85      
Shealy             Av/83                                  
Thorman*          Vg/140       Pr/168       Av/164       Av/164
House         Pr   Av/75                                  
Aviles                 Vg/119 Vg/145 Vg/102                
Hulett*                Vg/120       Av/74                  
Maier*                                  Vg/67   Av/85   Vg/67  
Parraz                                 Av/169 Pr/150 Av/169
Bloomquist         Av/70   Av/70   Av/70   Av/70   Vg/70   Fr/100 Vg/70  
Buck           Fr                                      
Buchanan                                 Pr/85       Pr/85  
Olivo         Av                                      
Anderson*          Av/210                 Vg/136 Fr/146 Vg/168
Giavotella               Av/149                            
Betancourt*                        Pr/116                
Raines#                                Av/132 Fr/132 Av/132
Clark         Fr                                      
Suomi*        Av                       Fr/130            
Moustakas*                    Av/118                      
Dickerson*                              Fr/160 Pr/94   Fr/82  
Falu#                  Av/69   Av/69   Av/154 Av/80   Fr/80      
Lubanski*                                Av/134            
Howell         Av                                      
Duarte                                 Vg/116 Vg/116 Vg/116
Hosmer*            Av/111                                
Murphy#                                Vg/117 Av/117 Vg/117
Hernandez#              Av/99       Av/99                  
Bianchi                 Av/81       Fr/97                  
Lisson             Vg/93       Vg/93   Fr/93                  
Aldridge*                                Fr/90       Fr/136
Robinson#                                    Vg/175      

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name           PO   EX   VG   AV   FR   PO       COMP 1       COMP 2       COMP 3
ButlerBilly     1B   9%  29%  29%  27%  6%    KonerkoPaul     IvieMike   JoynerWally
DeJesusDavid     LF   8%  19%  19%  24%  30%    MooreJo-Jo   MitchellDale   WalkerDixie
CallaspoAlberto   2B   16%  22%  25%  23%  13%  IzturisMaicer   FuentesTito   HudsonOrlando
GuillenJose     RF   1%  9%  14%  27%  48%    JordanBrian   SierraRuben     MillerBing
TeahenMark       3B   3%  14%  23%  32%  28%    HinskeEric     LyonsSteve   KoskieCorey
GordonAlex       3B   4%  12%  29%  35%  20%    HinskeEric   KoskieCorey     CastoKory
Ka’aihueKila     1B   1%  5%  11%  39%  45%    SuttonLarry     JohnsonDan     AbadAndy
PenaBrayan       C   5%  26%  30%  28%  11%      SmithHal   EstradaJohnny   MooreCharlie
CrispCoco       CF   4%  9%  29%  39%  19%    PrietoChris   BrownAdrian   ThomasDerrel
JacobsMike       DH   0%  2%  6%  29%  63%      CruzIvan     LieferJeff LancellottiRick
ThormanScott     LF   1%  5%  6%  15%  73%      BrownDee CepickyMatthew     OglivieBen
AvilesMike       SS   4%  12%  33%  33%  17%  GarciaCarlos     MearesPat     PaganJose
BloomquistWillie   RF   0%  2%  4%  15%  79%      FoxPete   BautistaDanny   GipsonCharles
MaierMitch       CF   2%  3%  13%  33%  50%  HeathcoteCliff   SchumakerSkip     SimpsonJoe
HulettTug       2B   3%  6%  13%  32%  46%    ClappStubby     MartinStu   FontenotMike
ShealyRyan       DH   0%  1%  2%  17%  80%    SchallGene FreireAlejandro   VitielloJoe
HouseJ.R.        C   1%  10%  21%  41%  27%      SmithHal     WilsonDan     HallToby
AndersonJosh     LF   0%  1%  2%  9%  89%  RobinsonKerry   DiloneMiguel     GoodwinTom
BuchananBrian     DH   0%  2%  2%  11%  85%    DropoWalt HitchcockBilly     KennedyBob
ParrazJordan     RF   1%  1%  1%  5%  92%    MateoRuben     BrownEmil     OrtegaBill
RainesTim       CF   1%  3%  12%  33%  51%    ScottTony   TorresAndresMcCrackenQuinton
OlivoMiguel       C   4%  11%  22%  37%  27%      HeganJim     HeathMike   BerryCharlie
BetancourtYuniesk SS   2%  5%  17%  31%  45%  DiSarcinaGary     BailorBob     WilsonJack
BuckJohn         C   1%  11%  22%  40%  27%    YeagerSteve   WidgerChris   KarkoviceRon
GiavotellaJohnny   2B   0%  1%  4%  19%  75%  BabittShooty     RivasLuis     GomezRudy
ClarkCody       C   0%  2%  12%  46%  39%    HornerJim   JohnsonBrian   FordyceBrook
AldridgeCory     RF   0%  0%  1%  5%  94%    RiosArmando     MooreGene     HowittDann
SuomiJohn       C   0%  4%  10%  34%  52%    GuldenBrad     MyersGreg   TaylorSammy
MoustakasMike     3B   0%  0%  1%  8%  90%    HodgesScott   CooperScott   MosesMatthew
DickersonJoseph   LF   0%  0%  0%  1%  99%  BrickellFred     AlmadaMel     ColesCorey
FaluIrving       2B   0%  0%  1%  7%  92%    MilesAaron JohnsonWallace     MaciasJose
LubanskiChris     LF   0%  0%  1%  1%  98%    HamiltonJon   O’LearyTroy   RigsbyRandy
MurphyTommy     CF   0%  0%  1%  3%  96%    ScottTonyMcCrackenQuinton   BudzinskiMark
DuarteJose       CF   0%  0%  1%  1%  98%    HallmarkPat     DurhamChad   ShanksJames
BianchiJeffrey   SS   0%  0%  1%  7%  92%  CosmeCaonabo   KutcherRandy     HallBill
HernandezLuis     SS   0%  0%  0%  2%  98%  DeLaCruzChris   SandovalDanny     BritoLuis
HowellJeffrey     C   0%  0%  0%  3%  97%  DifeliceMike   MillerDamian     DempseyPat
LissonMario     SS   0%  1%  2%  6%  91%  GonzalezAlex     BannonJeff   ChavezAngel
HosmerEric       1B   0%  0%  0%  0%  100%  IshikawaTravis     FrymanTroy   BurfordKevin
RobinsonDerrick   CF   0%  0%  0%  0%  100%    JamesKennyPendergrassTyron VictorinoShane

Name         .300 BA .375 OBP.500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB
ButlerBilly       37%    19%    22%    7%    25%    0%    11%    0%
DeJesusDavid       32%    25%    10%    4%    4%    28%    1%    0%
CallaspoAlberto     37%    15%    2%    0%    0%    5%    0%    0%
GuillenJose       10%    3%    6%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
TeahenMark         9%    4%    4%    0%    1%    3%    1%    0%
GordonAlex         2%    5%    3%    1%    1%    0%    1%    0%
Ka’aihueKila       4%    15%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
PenaBrayan         29%    6%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CrispCoco         7%    5%    1%    0%    0%    2%    0%    1%
JacobsMike         1%    0%    6%    0%    0%    0%    5%    0%
ThormanScott       5%    1%    7%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%
AvilesMike         18%    1%    2%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
BloomquistWillie     17%    6%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
MaierMitch         12%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HulettTug         3%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ShealyRyan         4%    3%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HouseJ.R.        10%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
AndersonJosh       10%    0%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    56%
BuchananBrian       12%    3%    4%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ParrazJordan       8%    7%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
RainesTim         5%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    1%
OlivoMiguel         1%    0%    8%    1%    0%    0%    2%    0%
BetancourtYuniesk   15%    0%    1%    0%    3%    3%    0%    0%
BuckJohn           1%    0%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
GiavotellaJohnny     4%    1%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
ClarkCody         9%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
AldridgeCory       2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
SuomiJohn         10%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
MoustakasMike       1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
DickersonJoseph     8%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
FaluIrving         12%    1%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
LubanskiChris       1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
MurphyTommy         1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    1%
DuarteJose         1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    3%
BianchiJeffrey       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HernandezLuis       5%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HowellJeffrey       3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
LissonMario         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    1%
HosmerEric         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
RobinsonDerrick     0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    98%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Zack Greinke         26   3.11 16   9 34 34   226.0 205   78 18   54 228 142
Gil Meche           31   4.67   9 13 30 30   181.0 188   94 20   67 136   94
Michael Montgomery*    20   5.09   4   7 22 22   99.0 110   56   6   54   57   86
Kyle Davies           26   5.25   8 15 32 32   166.1 179   97 22   79 111   84
Lenny Dinardo*        30   5.32   6 10 31 21   130.1 161   77 11   49   69   83
Brian Bannister       29   5.49   7 14 27 27   155.2 175   95 23   50   85   80
Dusty Hughes*        28   5.51   3   6 35 14   101.1 116   62 11   52   60   80
Daniel Duffy*        21   5.63   4   9 22 22   100.2 114   63 12   51   64   78
Luke Hochevar         26   5.69   7 15 31 30   172.1 196 109 22   55 110   77
Bruce Chen*          33   5.70   3   6 27 14   94.2 110   60 17   36   63   77
Sidney Ponson         33   5.87   3   8 21 18   102.2 130   67 12   39   47   75
Brandon Duckworth       34   5.88   4   9 25 17   104.0 120   68 15   45   52   75
Rowdy Hardy*          27   5.92   4 11 25 21   124.2 164   82 15   37   48   74
Michael O’Connor*      29   6.03   3   8 21 17   88.0 108   59 17   29   43   73
Anthony Lerew         27   6.25   3   8 19 18   90.2 113   63 14   49   44   70
Matt Wright           28   6.27   3   8 20 16   94.2 117   66 17   38   44   70
Heath Phillips*        28   6.31   4 11 34 20   127.0 167   89 19   55   61   70
Blake Wood           24   6.39   3 10 22 20   100.0 121   71 15   48   53   69

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Joakim Soria         26   3.03   4   2 58   0   62.1   48   21   6   19   72 147
Juan Cruz           31   4.58   3   4 52   0   53.0   49   27   6   30   52   95
Kyle Farnsworth       34   4.62   2   3 54   0   50.2   54   26   7   20   45   95
Doug Waechter         29   4.96   2   3 33   1   45.1   53   25   6   14   23   88
Jamey Wright         35   4.98   4   6 67   0   77.2   81   43   8   38   55   88
John Bale*          36   4.99   1   2 38   5   39.2   45   22   4   16   29   88
Rob Tejeda           28   5.03   4   6 37 11   87.2   77   49   9   55   84   86
Tim Hamulack*        33   5.08   1   2 27   0   39.0   44   22   5   14   24   86
Henry Barrera         24   5.09   0   1 20   0   23.0   24   13   2   16   20   86
Victor Marte         29   5.09   3   5 48   0   70.2   75   40   5   38   42   86
Carlos Rosa           25   5.10   3   5 54   0   65.1   72   37   7   29   45   85
Roman Colon           30   5.47   3   6 40   3   74.0   86   45 10   29   40   80
Yasuhiko Yabuta       37   5.62   2   5 41   0   57.2   66   36   7   27   40   78
Christopher Nicoll     26   6.30   2   7 34   6   74.1   88   52 13   37   47   70

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player         PO     TOP   MID   BOT         COMP 1         COMP 2         COMP 3
SoriaJoakim     RP     80%  19%  1%  PapelbonJonathan     OsunaAntonio       NenRobb
GreinkeZack     SP     97%  3%  0%    BlylevenBert     ClemensRoger       SeaverTom
CruzJuan       RP     9%  45%  47%    HenryDwayne     LaCorteFrank     WilliamsMike
FarnsworthKyle   RP     9%  46%  46%    WorrellTodd       PlunkEric     ParrettJeff
MecheGil       SP     13%  60%  27%      LearyTim     GuzmanJuan     ParrisSteve
TejedaRobinson   RP     3%  38%  59%      LidgeBrad   SchiraldiCalvin   WilliamsFrank
WrightJamey     RP     2%  28%  70%      HenryDoug       MecirJim       BairDoug
WaechterDoug     RP     7%  34%  59%  WinchesterScott     GreerKenny   PattersonDanny
RosaCarlos       RP     3%  30%  68%  HendersonScott     HuismannMark     BatemanJoe
HamulackTim     RP     9%  31%  60%    ShouseBrian     MagnanteMike     CormierRheal
BaleJohn       RP     7%  27%  66%      GroomBuddy     CormierRheal     EmbreeAlan
MarteVictor     RP     2%  28%  71%      LugoRuddy       FioreTony     RiedlingJohn
MontgomeryMichael SP     7%  42%  51%    HancockChris     BirtsasTim     MillerMike
BarreraHenry     RP     18%  30%  52%    KimballNewt   RaymondClaude   CastilloBobby
DaviesKyle       SP     3%  37%  61%    PattersonJohn       RiveraBen     HendersonRod
DiNardoLenny     SP     4%  31%  66%      ZerbeChad     MerckerKent       KarlScott
BannisterBrian   SP     1%  23%  76%  DriskillTravis   HernandezManny     BoydOil Can
RandolphSteve     RP     2%  17%  81%    DeLuciaRich     CharltonNorm     MillerTrever
ColonRoman       RP     0%  15%  85%        SoffRay     SchmackBrian       WellsBob
HughesDusty     SP     0%  11%  89%  BarzillaPhilip     ClarkBryan     FasseroJeff
DuffyDaniel     SP     1%  23%  76%      DownsScott   ClaussenBrandon     JacksonDanny
YabutaYasuhiko   RP     1%  12%  87%      JonesTodd     ServiceScott     ClarkTerry
HochevarLuke     SP     0%  13%  87% DuchschererJustin       RupeRyan     PineiroJoel
ChenBruce       SP     2%  15%  83%    BarnesBrian     SwindellGreg     CurtisJohn
DuckworthBrandon   SP     1%  11%  88%    CastilloFrank     LazorkoJack     DeSilvaJohn
PonsonSidney     SP     1%  13%  86%      AhearnePat     MoehlerBrian     JohnsonJason
HardyRowdy       SP     1%  12%  88%    PriestEddie     GassnerDave   RheineckerJohn
O’ConnorMike     SP     1%  12%  87%    WalkerJamie       LeekRandy     IlsleyBlaise
LerewAnthony     SP     0%  6%  94%    CrawfordSteve     TaylorKerry   BullingtonBryan
WrightMatt       SP     0%  5%  95%  GothreauxJared RodriguezRicardo     RandallScott
NicollChristopher RP     0%  3%  97%    PalkiJeromy     SessionsDoug   TroutmanKeith
PhillipsHeath     SP     0%  3%  97%    MusselmanJeff     McConnellSam       UrbanJeff
WoodBlake       SP     0%  4%  96%      KnoxBrad     HensleyClay   ReynoldsShane

Player         130 ERA+  100 ERA+  K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9

<1
SoriaJoakim 74% 98% 98% 14% 81%
GreinkeZack 74% 99% 84% 34% 92%
CruzJuan 9% 46% 72% 0% 61%
FarnsworthKyle 9% 38% 50% 2% 47%
MecheGil 2% 36% 5% 0% 58%
TejedaRobinson 2% 30% 70% 0% 75%
WrightJamey 2% 25% 3% 0% 74%
WaechterDoug 7% 33% 0% 21% 51%
RosaCarlos 2% 26% 2% 0% 61%
HamulackTim 6% 32% 2% 14% 44%
BaleJohn 4% 26% 9% 5% 64%
MarteVictor 1% 19% 0% 0% 95%
MontgomeryMichael 1% 17% 0% 0% 96%
BarreraHenry 11% 37% 38% 0% 79%
DaviesKyle 0% 12% 1% 0% 37%
DiNardoLenny 0% 11% 0% 3% 79%
BannisterBrian 0% 5% 0% 3% 17%
RandolphSteve 1% 14% 60% 0% 34%
ColonRoman 0% 9% 0% 1% 34%
HughesDusty 0% 6% 1% 0% 59%
DuffyDaniel 0% 6% 0% 0% 46%
YabutaYasuhiko 1% 10% 4% 0% 45%
HochevarLuke 0% 2% 0% 2% 31%
ChenBruce 0% 5% 3% 2% 16%
DuckworthBrandon 0% 3% 0% 0% 32%
PonsonSidney 0% 3% 0% 2% 47%
HardyRowdy 0% 2% 0% 14% 47%
O'ConnorMike 0% 3% 0% 7% 10%
LerewAnthony 0% 1% 0% 0% 21%
WrightMatt 0% 1% 0% 1% 12%
NicollChristopher 0% 1% 0% 0% 14%
PhillipsHeath 0% 0% 0% 0% 20%
WoodBlake 0% 1% 0% 0% 22%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name           BA OBP SLG   G   AB     R     H   2B 3B   HR RBI   BB   SO SB CS OPS+
ButlerBilly     .281 .346 .451 2026 7527   924   2117 469 22 256 1081   748   1229 11   5 108
GuillenJose     .269 .321 .438 1719 6178   786   1664 324 24 223 935   338   1147 35 26   98
JacobsMike     .248 .308 .456 951 3302   398   819 183 10 161 501   280   852   9   2   98
GordonAlex     .244 .328 .402 1173 4287   573   1044 242 19 133 498   473   1112 92 22   91
DeJesusDavid   .281 .352 .422 1409 5444   803   1528 286 72 113 649   510   837 73 71 103
CrispCoco     .267 .328 .393 1298 4744   689   1269 239 49   86 464   431   733 218 69   89
BetancourtYunies .270 .295 .385 1221 4342   488   1172 244 38   60 421   160   395 42 39   79

Player         W   L   S   ERA     G   GS   IP     H   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
GreinkeZack     235   171   4 3.56   706   537 3626   3466   362   955   3444   124
MecheGil       132   142   0 4.61   396   392 2304   2360   275   915   1707   96

All figures in % based on projection playing time

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 12, 2009 at 04:54 AM | 44 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Walt Davis Posted: October 12, 2009 at 08:15 AM (#3349467)
The sad thing is, by ZiPS, they really didn't have anything better than Bloomquist. This is just sad all over.

Corey Koskie and Kory Casto on Gordon's comps -- c'mon, you rigged that. :-) (I'd never actually heard of Casto)
   2. Brandon in MO (Yunitility Infielder) Posted: October 12, 2009 at 10:11 AM (#3349480)
having Larry Sutton as a comp is probably not gonna help Kila Kaaihue's career
   3. JPWF13 Posted: October 12, 2009 at 02:11 PM (#3349596)
(I'd never actually heard of Casto)


Shame on you

AAAA 3B/DH, a few years ago two guys in my Roto league actually fought over him- thinking he'd be a big deal...

Hit .290/.394/.510 in the Carolina League one year, .272/.379/.468 in the Eastern League...
   4. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: October 12, 2009 at 02:19 PM (#3349599)
The sad thing is, by ZiPS, they really didn't have anything better than Bloomquist. This is just sad all over.
It's a shame that Buck O'Neil passed on.

having Larry Sutton as a comp is probably not gonna help Kila Kaaihue's career
I had forgotten about Sutton. I always thought of him as the 90s Tommy Hutton but on lookup, I insult the mediocre Hutton by equating him with Sutton.
   5. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: October 12, 2009 at 03:00 PM (#3349643)
I like Hulett (the in-house youneverknow MI infield option the Royals should have used instead of getting YB) - but am not sure why your estimates of his range are that rosy. Minor quibble.
   6. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 12, 2009 at 03:08 PM (#3349654)
Looking at that roster just makes me sad. It's like it's written in the blood of dead puppies.
   7. Dr. Vaux Posted: October 12, 2009 at 03:22 PM (#3349672)
How would you tell it was from puppies?

Homeless people, Dan. People.
   8. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 12, 2009 at 03:30 PM (#3349683)
Bannister and Oil Can Boyd as comps? Obviously basic intelligence wasn't a factor :)

I'm sure the Royals are hoping that Duffy turns into Danny Jackson, but I suspect he'll be more like the other two comps.

-- MWE
   9. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: October 12, 2009 at 03:38 PM (#3349696)
I know the list of three comps doesn't really mean all that much... but Greinke's list is really, really nice.
   10. Hack Wilson Posted: October 12, 2009 at 04:03 PM (#3349739)
The burning issue is the comp for PenaBrayan is Hal Smith, but which Hal Smith?

BTW one was a World Series, the other not, but other than that completely interchangeable.
   11. JPWF13 Posted: October 12, 2009 at 04:12 PM (#3349754)
So Dayton Moore has been GM for 3+ years...
This will be his 4th off-season...

So if in 2010 the Royals go 67-95. does he stay? (5 year extension sez yes)...

The Moore era Royals look a lot like the DL lead Pirates to me.

If Greinke hadn't gone all Koufax this team would have lost 100.
   12. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: October 12, 2009 at 04:15 PM (#3349757)
Who knew that Brandon Duckworth was older than Sidney Ponson and Bruce Chen?
   13. Walt Davis Posted: October 12, 2009 at 06:56 PM (#3349980)
Now that I notice it, that Greinke career projection seems a bit optimistic. To project a guy to throw more innings than Mussina? Granted, he's got a 210 IP lead through age 25. (This is not to question that Greinke has a good chance to be as good as Mussina or better, it's just the injury risk, etc. makes me think that's an optimistic mean projection.)

Back to Bloomquist and the homeless ... That seems to have been who was on KC's AAA roster. Look at that list. After DeJesus, Guillen and the injured Crisp, the next OF listed is Mitch Maier (to whom the Royals did give reasonable playing time). They also gave time to Josh Anderson after they picked him up. Anyway, after Maier you get a guy named Jordan Parraz then Bloomquist. Parraz seems to have been hurt for part of the year (I don't know which part) but did tear up AA. ZiPS defensive chart suggests the Royals could have trotted Pena or Thorman out in RF before Bloomquist.

I come not to defend the notion of Bloomquist in RF which is clearly counter to everything that is right and holy. Just pointing out how putrid this roster is that it has neither some kid who might have been worth a shot nor a Garrett Jones type anywhere to be found.
   14. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: October 12, 2009 at 07:01 PM (#3349983)
Are the players supposed to be in order by OPS+? Because they're not. Especially with Cory Aldridge's 80 OPS+ all the way at the bottom, below all the numbers in the 60s.
   15. geonose Posted: October 12, 2009 at 07:15 PM (#3350000)
The sad thing is, by ZiPS, they really didn't have anything better than Bloomquist.

They absolutely should have taken a flyer on Jordan Parraz in right field. Yeah, he was hurt a bit, out for some time in June, then missed all of August, but who's to say whether he gets hurt if he's with the major league team instead of AA and AAA?

Dan, why are you projecting Ponson when he was given his outright release in July after he refused AAA assignment?
   16. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: October 12, 2009 at 07:18 PM (#3350009)
Crispix on Aldridge: Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 (see above)... Cory's is brought down by that terrible OBP.
Ponson: What team should he be projected with? 'Cause he's likely to end up somewhere...
   17. geonose Posted: October 12, 2009 at 07:59 PM (#3350060)
What team should he be projected with? 'Cause he's likely to end up somewhere...

The Japan Whatevers.
   18. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: October 12, 2009 at 08:05 PM (#3350067)
Bill Simmons once labeled David Lee, playing for an awful and unsightly Knicks' team, "a rose growing in ####." I think that pretty much sums up Zack Greinke's situation right now.
   19. geonose Posted: October 12, 2009 at 08:21 PM (#3350086)
Players are listed with their most recent teams

Duh. Guess I could read better, huh?
   20. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: October 12, 2009 at 08:25 PM (#3350092)
Four players with OPS+ or ERA+ over 100. Four.

Is this a record for ZiPS? Hell, is this a record for any projection system?
   21. JPWF13 Posted: October 12, 2009 at 08:40 PM (#3350113)
Is this a record for ZiPS? Hell, is this a record for any projection system?


I'd hope so
   22. JJ1986 Posted: October 12, 2009 at 08:53 PM (#3350121)
With the Royals need for a right fielder and Moore's Braves connection, I know just the guy they should be trying to acquire.
   23. user Posted: October 12, 2009 at 09:55 PM (#3350184)
Crispix on Aldridge: Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 (see above)... Cory's is brought down by that terrible OBP.


Which I will boldly predict has a typo somewhere along the line, since 2 walks is a completely implausible projection and his slashline doesn't actuually appear to equal an 80 ops+ (compared with betancourt and moustakas ) which it would with a sensible number of walks.
   24. JPWF13 Posted: October 12, 2009 at 10:11 PM (#3350201)
Dan, I'm A Mets fan, and even as a Mets fan I have to say that #26 is... evil, pure evil.

edit: Though I do think that at least trying to shoplift Gordon is something the Mutts should be doing.
   25. andrewberg Posted: October 13, 2009 at 01:57 AM (#3350541)
First of all, it's funny that Blyleven is Greinke's top comp, then his career line looks like a "he should be in the HOF but the record doesn't get it done" standard for 25 years from now. Who knows, maybe 235 will look better by then.

Also, why is Mark Teahen a Royal? I know they have made some dumb decisions, but the longer he's on the roster, the more wasteful it becomes in terms of $$ and opportunity.
   26. rombuu Posted: October 13, 2009 at 02:22 AM (#3350562)
Wouldn't the Royals kill to get a 96+ OPS out of Guillen next year?
   27. David Ogren Posted: October 13, 2009 at 02:40 AM (#3350572)
How much of a role does past ERA play in the pitching projections? I ask because of Hochevar... he's dramatically underperformed his components for two years running, and it looks like ZiPS sees more of the same. I'm surprised that the bad situational performance isn't being more heavily regressed.
   28. AROM Posted: October 13, 2009 at 01:08 PM (#3350740)
Healthy feral cats are better options in a corner outfield spot than Willie Bloomquist - I don't think many have ".332 career slugging percentage" on their resum├ęs.


This is true. I found one in my backyard and he's given me a .407 SLG in APBA.
   29. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 13, 2009 at 01:19 PM (#3350751)
Well, at least the projections for Johnny Giovatella and Mike Montgomery look nice.

Gil Meche is about to become an albatross, isn't he?

Also, why is Mark Teahen a Royal? I know they have made some dumb decisions, but the longer he's on the roster, the more wasteful it becomes in terms of $$ and opportunity.

Dayton cannot let a player go unless he feels like he gets awesome value for him. Supposedly he shopped Teahen around last winter and when the only offers were for guys like Mike Fontenot and Ben Francisco, he said no. I've read rumors he asks for way too much for his own players. He seems to have a serious delusion about the value of players on the market if he gives up Dan Cortes AND Derrick Saito for a shortstop many thought would be DFAed.

This is also why Jose Guillen will never ever be released and why Mike Jacobs will probably be tendered a contract.
   30. Charles Kinbote Posted: October 14, 2009 at 03:44 AM (#3351466)
I'm in favor of feeding Wylie Dufresne through a Play-Doh Fun Factory, on the spaghetti setting or any other, for what it's worth.
   31. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 14, 2009 at 02:44 PM (#3351710)
"Supposedly he shopped Teahen around last winter and when the only offers were for guys like Mike Fontenot and Ben Francisco, he said no. I've read rumors he asks for way too much for his own players."

Another thing he has in common with Littlefield.
   32. Jarrod HypnerotomachiaPoliphili(Teddy F. Ballgame) Posted: October 18, 2009 at 05:45 AM (#3356534)
What a stark preview. Nobody projected to hit .300, nobody projected to get on base higher than .360, nobody expected to slug .500 in any amount of playing time. Not only is there but one really good player (Greinke, of course, although I guess Soria should count for something) there's not anyone else above average. The worst of it is there isn't really anyone you can even bet on to be average.

In a best case scenario, they still can't aspire to mediocrity.
   33. stealfirstbase Posted: October 19, 2009 at 07:36 PM (#3358012)
He seems to have a serious delusion about the value of players on the market if he gives up Dan Cortes AND Derrick Saito for a shortstop many thought would be DFAed.

I've often thought the same thing about Kenny Williams. The difference is that Kenny Williams identifies the talent he wants and goes and gets it, be it Jake Peavy, Carlos Quentin, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Nick Swisher, etc. I suppose outbidding the market works when you're getting good talent in return for prospects.

Moore's problem isn't that he gave up talent for Betancourt, it's that he acquired Betancourt at all.
   34. JPWF13 Posted: October 19, 2009 at 07:53 PM (#3358030)
Moore's problem isn't that he gave up talent for Betancourt, it's that he acquired Betancourt at all.


I remember when Moore's predecessor acquired the Neifinator, and someone wrote that it was "evidence that he was actively blowing the talent evaluation aspect of his job"

Remember when Moore came in, and everyone assumed he'd be an improvement, he was "well regarded" and came from the Braves' system? Then he wildly overpaid for Gil Meche (or so it seemed)
and then Meche pulled a 128 ERA+ out of his ass* (and followed up with a 107).
And people said hey, he knows his stuff, he can see what is not readily apparent....

Meche is just one data point
Betancourt is another...

I think that Moore does seem to have some ability at identifying/evaluating pitchers, however, for an MLB GM he appears to be horrifyingly incompetent at identifyin/evaluating hitters/position players.

IOW, he may have a positive role to play fro an MLB organization, but not as a GM.

* Improvement in his peripherals in 2007 was limited to walk rate and homer rate, and they were not "huge" improvements. I don't have it handy but I suspect his "strand rate" was pretty high. He pitched better in 2007 than he had before but I think a 128 ERA+ overstated that improvement...
   35. Travolta19 Posted: October 22, 2009 at 02:09 AM (#3361694)
Hey Dan, why no projection for David Lough? He's certainly more advanced (and better) than some of the guys listed, Derrick Robinson in particular.

Thanks,
Jim
   36. BobbyS Posted: November 14, 2009 at 01:29 AM (#3387505)
What about Shane Costa? Is he coming back...is it possible to get a projection for him?
   37. guyute Posted: February 11, 2010 at 06:27 PM (#3458695)
Hey Dan, now that there is rumbling that Farnsworth will be given a crack at the starting rotation, will he get a SP rating?
   38. Broncmet Posted: February 25, 2010 at 02:23 PM (#3467852)
Hey Dan, is there a projection floating out there for Rick Ankiel, I didn't see your normal projection with a signing article for him

Thanks for the work,
Rick

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