BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2010 ZiPS Projections

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, February 18, 2010

2010 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeheim Angels

After some losses that the team can’t easily absorb, Lackey being overpaid but solid and Figgins a significantly better

player than Wood. If it’s possible to say such a thing, this is the most generic of the contending teams. Like I noted last

year, this is a team that doesn’t win from having a huge amount of front-end talent, but merely from being solid everywhere

and awful nowhere. That might seem like damnation, but building a team without serious holes isn’t the easiest thing.

The main problem the Angels have is that the competition is getting better. The Mariners have completely overhauled the

franchise, the Ranger far system has become ridiculously productive, and even the A’s have a young pitching staff and an

offense that’ll be ordinary rather than comical. The Angels probably weren’t a “true” 97-win team last year (if I can use

the word true for a very ethereal concept), but they’re still a good team and a reasonable contender in a very wide-open

division. The major problem the Angels could face is injuries. While you can say that for most teams, the Angels don’t have

a lot of spare talent at AAA - their #6 starter, unless I’ve missed a NRI, is going to be ugly and their 3 best hitters by

ZiPS are in their mid-30s.

Well, that concludes the initial team rundowns. Projections for a couple of hundred players that didn’t run and the usual

mix of spreadsheets and DMB disks will be posted in the coming weeks.

Offensive Projections 

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 

Torii Hunter             cf  34  .288  .350  .489 123 466  71 134 29  1 21  80  42  88  9  3   116 

Hideki Matsui*           dh  36  .281  .360  .462 111 392  58 110 21  1 16  69  47  56  1  1   113 

Bobby Abreu*             lf  35  .283  .372  .436 135 516  78 146 31  3 14  82  76 100 22  7   111 

Mike Napoli              c   28  .260  .352  .488 107 334  54  87 17  1 19  53  44  93  3  2   117 

Kendry Morales#          1b  27  .287  .333  .485 136 499  64 143 32  2 21  78  34  89  1  3   110 

Howie Kendrick           2b  26  .294  .335  .437 126 469  68 138 29  4 10  63  23  83  8  3   100 

Juan Rivera              lf  31  .281  .323  .460 104 374  48 105 20  1 15  64  25  46  0  1   102 

Maicer Izturis#          2b  29  .285  .348  .411 112 389  65 111 22  3  7  57  37  42  9  3    98 

Erick Aybar#             ss  26  .289  .331  .406 120 419  58 121 22  6  5  48  24  51 10  5    92 

Christopher Pettit       lf  25  .262  .319  .392 103 401  53 105 24  2  8  47  27  76  9  2    85 

Freddy Sandoval#         3b  27  .269  .322  .387 111 450  57 121 26  3  7  52  35  76  9  4    85 

Brandon Wood             3b  25  .244  .300  .422 136 505  63 123 26  2 20  66  38 134  3  1    86 

Val Majewski*            rf  29  .261  .322  .383  73 261  34  68 13  2  5  28  21  52  4  2    84 

Cory Aldridge*           rf  31  .244  .311  .401  91 332  36  81 15  2 11  45  31  95  2  3    84 

Luis Figueroa#           2b  36  .284  .321  .383  53 183  22  52 10  1  2  22  11  16  1  1    84 

Hank Conger#             c   22  .260  .313  .378 112 439  49 114 21  2  9  59  34  81  2  1    80 

Reggie Willits#          cf  29  .260  .342  .332 121 346  57  90 15  2  2  32  43  64 14  6    78 

Bobby Wilson             c   27  .263  .309  .374 100 350  32  92 19  1  6  44  22  58  1  1    78 

Ben Johnson              1b  29  .249  .304  .371  95 334  40  83 18  1  7  40  22  68  3  2    76 

Terry Evans              rf  28  .241  .288  .389 120 468  62 113 24  3 13  53  28 134 11  3    75 

Mark Trumbo              1b  24  .250  .287  .385 143 561  49 140 30  2 14  69  29 123  4  4    74 

Bradley Coon*            cf  27  .258  .326  .321 119 476  67 123 17  2  3  32  44  83 21 11    71 

Hainley Statia#          ss  24  .259  .306  .345  99 359  45  93 21  2  2  38  23  37  7  3    70 

Peter Bourjos            cf  23  .250  .296  .357 122 512  70 128 21  8  6  43  32 108 22  8    70 

Jeff Mathis              c   27  .223  .289  .349 103 332  42  74 16  1  8  40  28  89  2  1    66 

Nick Gorneault           lf  31  .220  .279  .356 127 450  51  99 21  2 12  57  35 130  5  4    65 

Ryan Budde               c   30  .226  .285  .339  72 239  22  54 13  1  4  26  18  64  1  1    63 

Defensive Projections

Name               CThr 1b      2b      3b      ss      lf      cf      rf      

Hunter                                                          Av/61           

Matsui*                                                 Pr/96                   

Abreu*                                                  Pr/72           Pr/72   

Napoli             Pr                                                           

Morales#                Av/107                          Fr/129          Fr/129  

Kendrick                        Av/92                                           

Rivera                                                  Av/133          Av/133  

Izturis#                        Av/72   Av/80   Av/78                           

Aybar#                          Av/124  Av/124  Vg/107                          

Pettit                                                  Fr/92   Pr/44   Fr/92   

Sandoval#               Av/206  Fr/142  Av/118                                  

Wood                                    Av/121  Fr/115                          

Majewski*                                               Av/125  Fr/125  Av/125  

Aldridge*                                               Fr/90           Fr/136  

Figueroa#                       Av/135  Av/135  Av/135                          

Conger#            Fr                                                           

Willits#                                                Vg/60   Fr/101  Av/83   

Wilson             Av   Av/125                                                  

Johnson                 Fr/147                          Av/86   Av/92   Vg/86   

Evans                                                   Av/78   Pr/97   Pr/97   

Trumbo                  Av/151                                                  

Coon*                                                   Vg/100  Fr/100          

Statia#                         Vg/113          Vg/113                          

Bourjos                                                 Vg/112  Vg/112  Vg/112  

Mathis             Fr                                                           

Gorneault                                               Av/106  Pr/149  Av/124  

Budde              Vg   Av/125                                                  

* - Bats Left

# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name               PO    EX    VG    AV    FR    PO          COMP 1          COMP 2          COMP 3

HunterTorii        CF   47%   24%   19%    8%    2%        OtisAmos         SmithAl      JohnsonLou

NapoliMike          C   50%   33%   10%    5%    2%    SeminickAndy    HayesFrankie       DietzDick

MoralesKendry      1B    6%   14%   19%   36%   24%      HarrisJohn     YoungDmitri     SheetsLarry

KendrickHowie      2B   24%   19%   20%   22%   16%       AlleyGene      AdairJerry   DuncanMariano

RiveraJuan         LF    7%   14%   16%   24%   40%         HallMel    CovingtonWes        EnnisDel

IzturisMaicer      2B   18%   19%   23%   24%   15%       MyerBuddy     LopezMickey  AndersonMarlon

AybarErick         SS    5%   15%   34%   30%   15%  GuzmanCristian    FurcalRafael    AparicioLuis

PettitChristopher  LF    0%    2%    4%   14%   80%      GladdenDan     AlvarezTony    SothernDenny

SandovalFreddy     3B    1%    4%    9%   23%   63%  PendletonTerry      BooneAaron     StrangeDoug

FigueroaLuis       2B    0%    0%    3%   14%   83%   CandaeleCasey       StrippJoe    VizcainoJose

WoodBrandon        3B    2%    4%   11%   26%   58%      GaettiGary     AriasGeorge     BlowersMike

MajewskiVal        RF    0%    1%    3%    7%   89%      LeachJalal      SwannPedro    ParsonsCasey

CongerHank          C    0%    4%   15%   39%   41%     WalbeckMatt       RamosJohn     NelsonJamie

WilsonBobby         C    0%    3%    9%   31%   57%       WilsonDan    FordyceBrook   MachadoRobert

WillitsReggie      CF    0%    1%    7%   25%   66%       NixonOtis     LewisDarren       MosesJohn

EvansTerry         RF    0%    1%    2%    5%   93%SanchezAlejandro      DavisButch      BarkerSean

JohnsonBen         1B    0%    0%    1%    5%   94%     JacksonRyan      AshbyChris      CromerD.T.

BourjosPeter       CF    0%    0%    2%   13%   85%      RepkoJason      MoranJavonAllensworthJermaine

TrumboMark         1B    0%    0%    1%    3%   96%       HarveyKen      DavisTommy     PenaWily Mo

StatiaHainley      SS    0%    2%    6%   21%   72%   SandovalDanny  ConcepcionOnix    IzturisCesar

CoonBradley        CF    0%    0%    2%   12%   86%      OwensJerry    ThompsonMilt     ManningRick

MathisJeff          C    0%    1%    2%   11%   86%     ArdoinDanny DeFrancescoTonyConcepcionAlberto

GorneaultNick      RF    0%    0%    0%    1%   99%      HowittDann    DavidsonMark         FoxEric

BuddeRyan           C    0%    0%    1%    8%   90%      HooverPaul      LopezPedro       DavisDoug

Name              .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB

HunterTorii           34%     20%     41%     12%      3%      0%     13%      0%

NapoliMike            12%     24%     36%     14%      0%      0%      5%      0%

MoralesKendry         30%      6%     31%      6%      5%      0%     11%      0%

KendrickHowie         43%      9%     11%      3%      2%      2%      0%      0%

RiveraJuan            25%      4%     21%      4%      0%      0%      2%      0%

IzturisMaicer         31%     18%      3%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%

AybarErick            34%      6%      2%      0%      0%     12%      0%      0%

PettitChristopher      8%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

SandovalFreddy        13%      4%      1%      0%      1%      0%      0%      0%

FigueroaLuis          32%      7%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

WoodBrandon            2%      1%      4%      0%      0%      0%      5%      0%

MajewskiVal           11%      4%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

CongerHank             5%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

WilsonBobby            9%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

WillitsReggie          8%     12%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

EvansTerry             2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

JohnsonBen             4%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

BourjosPeter           2%      0%      0%      0%      0%     27%      0%      9%

TrumboMark             3%      0%      0%      0%      2%      0%      0%      0%

StatiaHainley          7%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

CoonBradley            6%      4%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      7%

MathisJeff             1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

GorneaultNick          0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

BuddeRyan              1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Scott Kazmir*             26   4.26  12   9  31  31   179.2  171   85  21   73  169  107 

Jered Weaver              27   4.33  13  10  33  33   197.2  200   95  25   61  156  105 

Joel Pineiro              31   4.45  12  11  29  29   168.0  191   83  17   36   80  103 

Ervin Santana             27   4.48  10   9  28  28   176.2  182   88  25   50  153  102 

Joe Saunders*             29   4.68  12  11  31  31   190.1  205   99  26   60  109   98 

Matt Palmer               31   5.40   7   9  34  21   131.2  146   79  18   65   79   85 

Trevor Bell               23   5.60   7  10  34  22   136.2  166   85  15   62   70   82 

Jordan Walden             22   5.81   4   7  19  19    91.1  103   59  11   59   56   79 

Sean O’Sullivan           22   6.03   7  13  28  26   140.1  176   94  21   58   70   76 

Trevor Reckling*          21   6.21   6  12  27  27   136.1  160   94  17  104   79   74 

Mike MacDonald            28   6.26   6  11  32  23   132.1  171   92  20   52   57   73 

Travis Chick              26   6.28   5   9  26  19   106.0  124   74  19   62   62   73 

Anthony Ortega            24   6.52   4   9  19  19    99.1  124   72  18   49   44   70 

Brad Knox                 28   6.59   5  11  28  24   144.2  188  106  27   59   53   69 

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Jason Bulger              31   3.88   4   2  58   0    60.1   51   26   6   31   66  118 

Brian Fuentes*            34   4.04   4   3  63   0    55.2   52   25   6   23   51  113 

Scot Shields              34   4.09   4   3  44   0    44.0   40   20   5   22   41  112 

Fernando Rodney           33   4.37   4   3  56   0    57.2   53   28   6   34   56  105 

Michael Kohn              24   4.50   4   3  53   0    58.0   53   29   6   39   60  102 

Richard Thompson          25   4.92   7   9  36   1    53.0   55   29   9   20   46   93 

Brian Stokes              30   5.08   3   4  77   0    79.2   90   45   9   38   50   88 

Kevin Jepsen              25   5.45   4   5  59   0    66.0   73   40   7   42   50   84 

Robert Mosebach           25   5.54   3   4  67   0    74.2   90   46   6   42   37   82 

Brad Salmon               30   5.79   4   7  45   9    93.1  106   60  12   57   60   79 

Rafael Rodriguez          25   5.82   2   3  46   0    65.0   82   42   9   25   31   79 

Fernando Rodriguez        26   5.99   2   4  60   0    70.2   82   47   9   49   43   76 

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player             PO      TOP   MID   BOT            COMP 1            COMP 2            COMP 3

BulgerJason        RP       43%   46%   11%         DurenRyne         ClearMark           KernJim

FuentesBrian       RP       35%   49%   16%     MartinezTippy     RemlingerMike       OroscoJesse

ShieldsScot        RP       26%   51%   24%     BerenguerJuan     KershnerJason       StoddardTim

KazmirScott        SP       48%   48%    4%           GrayTedValenzuelaFernando      UnderwoodTom

WeaverJered        SP       37%   57%    6%      McDowellJack     VazquezJavier     FernandezAlex

PineiroJoel        SP       35%   48%   17%           BarrJim         FriendBob       BurdetteLew

SantanaErvin       SP       29%   61%   10%    SandersonScott     VazquezJavier        HarenDanny

KohnMichael        RP       16%   53%   30%         ClearMark       LittellMark       BruneyBrian

SaundersJoe        SP       18%   62%   19%    WashburnJarrod     HoneycuttRick     McGregorScott

ThompsonRich       RP        8%   40%   52%          LaddPete         NeshekPat   HernandezSantos

PalmerMatt         SP        7%   33%   60%         BenesAlan         GlynnRyan       WrightJamey

JepsenKevin        RP        1%   26%   73%     ChavezAnthony       BowlesBrian         ShadeMike

MosebachRobert     RP        2%   23%   75%        SiskTommie        HerbertRay          RossGary

BellTrevor         SP        2%   31%   67%          SmithDan     WestbrookJake     NunezClemente

SalmonBrad         RP        0%   10%   90%      McLearyMarty     HendersonRyan   JuelsgaardJarod

WaldenJordan       SP        2%   21%   77%    HendricksonBen     MitchellLarry         RitzKevin

RodriguezRafael    RP        1%   13%   86%        SantosReid   DeLosSantosRich     SpeignerJimmy

RodriguezFernando  RP        0%    8%   91%     HendersonRyan SlocumbHeathcliff         BakerRyan

O’SullivanSean     SP        0%   13%   87%        BauerPeter     RasnerDarrell       BennettJeff

RecklingTrevor     SP        0%    6%   93%      WodnickiMike        PalsJordan     MartinezJesus

MacdonaldMichael   SP        0%    7%   93%         AugustDon        MagraneJim        AhearnePat

ChickTravis        SP        0%    8%   92%        CaleroKiko         ClayDanny        BakerSteve

OrtegaAnthony      SP        0%    5%   95%     CooganPatrick        AhernBrian     BucktrotKeith

KnoxBrad           SP        0%    2%   98%     MiddletonKyle      HinckleyMike       RobertsNick

Player             130 ERA+  100 ERA+    K/9 >8  BB/9 <2   HR/9
<1

BulgerJason             36%       82%       92%       0%       70%

FuentesBrian            28%       79%       52%       1%       64%

ShieldsScot             26%       69%       59%       0%       69%

KazmirScott             10%       74%       68%       1%       44%

WeaverJered              6%       66%       13%       5%       36%

PineiroJoel              9%       58%        0%      63%       71%

SantanaErvin             5%       59%       40%      10%       22%

KohnMichael             12%       56%       83%       0%       54%

SaundersJoe              2%       46%        0%       5%       25%

ThompsonRich             5%       41%       42%       3%       22%

PalmerMatt               2%       17%        4%       0%       36%

JepsenKevin              1%       17%       10%       0%       64%

MosebachRobert           1%       16%        0%       0%       80%

BellTrevor               0%        8%        0%       0%       55%

SalmonBrad               0%        6%        1%       0%       32%

WaldenJordan             0%        6%        0%       0%       43%

RodriguezRafael          0%       10%        0%       2%       36%

RodriguezFernando        0%        7%        0%       0%       51%

O'SullivanSean           0%        1%        0%       0%       22%

RecklingTrevor           0%        1%        0%       0%       42%

MacdonaldMichael         0%        1%        0%       0%       18%

ChickTravis              0%        1%        0%       0%       10%

OrtegaAnthony            0%        1%        0%       0%        8%

KnoxBrad                 0%        0%        0%       0%        4%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name               BA  OBP  SLG    G    AB      R      H   2B  3B   HR  RBI    BB     SO  SB  CS OPS+

NapoliMike       .247 .342 .457 1316  4083    634   1010  192  11  214  597   541   1224  39  30  107

AybarErick       .279 .322 .381 1287  4360    588   1218  201  52   46  476   244    569  88  50   83

MoralesKendry    .277 .326 .472 1120  4034    507   1118  249  12  171  615   286    767   9  19  105

HunterTorii      .273 .331 .466 2276  8441   1255   2308  487  36  355 1345   675   1664 213  88  106

AbreuBobby       .293 .394 .472 2603  9535   1635   2796  617  67  319 1579  1612   2017 422 135  125

MatsuiHideki     .287 .366 .475 1466  5273    768   1516  294  17  220  866   646    765  15   9  120

Player              W     L     S   ERA      G     GS   IP      H     HR     BB     SO   ERA+

KazmirScott       156   136     0  4.21    430    429 2474   2340    303   1063   2431    108

PineiroJoel       166   159     4  4.50    481    414 2589   2853    279    674   1440     98

SantanaErvin      133   122     0  4.64    363    361 2230   2285    328    692   1902     98

SaundersJoe       118   103     0  4.66    298    298 1806   1946    252    593   1042     98

All figures in % based on projection playing time 


Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  

Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 

many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.  

ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 

being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 

is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 

the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  

This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in

the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information

is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting

the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 

most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top

quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Astros

A’s

Blue

Jays

Braves

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips_projections_milwaukee_brewers/">Brewers

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips_projections_st_louis_cardinals/">Cardinals

Cubs

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips_projections_arizona_diamondbacks/">Diamondbacks

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips_projections_los_angeles_dodgers/">Dodgers

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips_projections_san_francisco_giants/">Giants

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips_projections_cleveland_indians/">Indians

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips_projections_seattle_mariners/">Mariners

Marlins

Mets

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips_projections_washington_nationals/">Nationals

BR>

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips_projections_baltimore_orioles/">Orioles

Padres

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips_projections_philadelphia_phillies/">Phillies

BR>

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips_projections_pittsburgh_pirates/">Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips_projections_kansas_city_royals/">Royals

Tigers

Twins

White

Sox

Yankees

These projections were sponsored in part by:

width="570" height="75" />

Dan Szymborski Posted: February 18, 2010 at 06:11 AM | 32 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. RollingWave Posted: February 18, 2010 at 06:30 AM (#3462541)

Bobby Abreu's career line there is a lot closer to the HOF than his actual voting is going to be.

2. Boxkutter Posted: February 18, 2010 at 06:42 AM (#3462543)

Those Jepsen numbers can't be correct can they? I know his ERA has been 4.86 in his two years in the majors, but his FIP has been 2.86 because of his high BABIP (360 career). His walks seem really out of whack. Career 3.29 per 9 in the majors, but it was around 5.5 in the minors. Just by eyeballing it, I would say it looks to be over 6 per 9 on the Zips.

3. Walt Davis Posted: February 18, 2010 at 06:51 AM (#3462544)

Abreu and Matsui seem to be missing in the ODDIBE tables.

And Dan, will you ever stop being mean to Brandon Wood? :-)

4. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 18, 2010 at 07:15 AM (#3462550)

Jepsen's projection is correct.

5. Boxkutter Posted: February 18, 2010 at 07:18 AM (#3462551)

Ugh, Dan. You just killed my DMB offseason lol.

6. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: February 18, 2010 at 07:18 AM (#3462552)

If Wood's performance leads to the conclusion that Figgins is significantly better than he- Izturis will become the everyday third baseman. The difference between Izturis and Figgins is very small.

I'd also feel real comfortable betting the over on Jepsen for next year. After developing the cutter/slider mid-year, he was very effective in the second half, even while fighting some arm problems. If he's fully healthy, I suspect he's a good bullpen arm and puts up some nice numbers.

In any case Mr. Szymborski, your obvious anti-Angel bias not withstanding, thanks for the effort.

7. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: February 18, 2010 at 07:25 AM (#3462554)

I think the starting rotation does better than Zips says they will.

8. Infinite Joost (Voxter)

Posted: February 18, 2010 at 07:41 AM (#3462556)

That's a pretty nice projection for Hunter, except for the games played.

9. BobbyS Posted: February 18, 2010 at 07:52 AM (#3462557)

I don't understand how Weaver gets that weak of a projection at all..I don't remember the ERA+ projection last year (I assume it was around 115-120?)..but still.

____________             Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K  ERA+ 
09 projection             26   3.75  13   8  30  30   180.0  174   75  19   49  148  ???
09 Actual stats           26   3.75  16   8  33  33   211.0  196   88  26   66  174  120  (4.04 FIP)

10 Projection             27   4.33  13  10  33  33   197.2  200   95  25   61  156  105 

His career ERA+ is a 121 and his FIP has never went above 4.06. Is there something that can explain what ZiPs sees here to cause this? Is it cause you take out his big rookie year? Wouldn't it be logical to keep that in there for a young player who should be improving at this age, in order to get a more believable projection....or do we expect that he goes backward toward 2008, in which his FIP allowed for a better projection last year.

Aside from him, nobody really stands out. I expect Kazmir to top that projection, if he is/stays healthy, and maybe Fuentes. I like the over on Morales and Rivera, and maybe even Macier, but they all look in line with expectations.

10. LB813 Posted: February 18, 2010 at 03:34 PM (#3462609)

Okay. Now that all the teams are out. Do we have a potential date for the first draft disk?

On a side not, I almost traded for Kendry Morales a couple of days ago, now Im glad I didnt. I figured he would be between a 120 and 125 OPS+ guy.

11. you got a STEAGLES? you're gonna need a STEAGLES. Posted: February 18, 2010 at 03:40 PM (#3462613)

Ugh, Dan. You just killed my DMB offseason lol.

lance cormier, blaine boyer, or mike koplove could be made available, if you'd like.

12. Cabbage Posted: February 18, 2010 at 06:26 PM (#3462822)

I'd take the under on the Angels.

The major problem the Angels could face is injuries. While you can say that for most teams, the Angels don't have a lot of spare talent at AAA - their #6 starter, unless I've missed a NRI, is going to be ugly and their 3 best hitters by ZiPS are in their mid-30s.

Exactly, the outfielders are either well into their thirties, or unlikely to be much use. There is age in the pen. Without depth to fill in the gaps, I see this team struggling to get near 90 wins.

Sure, there is a decent upside here if everything breaks right. If the older starters can stay healthy, and someone from Morales/Kendrick/Weaver/Santana becomes a legit all-star, then they might be quite good.

To use BPro's terminology, there is a much higher collapse rate than breakout rate. I'd be pessimistic.

13. BobbyS Posted: February 18, 2010 at 06:34 PM (#3462833)

Yeah, ZiPS sees Weaver's upside as less every year he doesn't achieve it.

Last year, ZiPS nailed his 3.75 ERA and K rate, and looked good on his Hits/9 and HR/9. So, he doesn't achieve his upside, but meets expectations, and then loses all that upside? Basically, his projection was doomed unless he put up another 178 ERA+, and that seems asking a bit much.

Weaver's also been kind of lucky with his homers allowed - his xFIPs are significantly higher.

That would make sense...but his xFIPs have always been higher, and it never pushed his projection like this. Why does it catch up with him now?

Not that I expect him to put up Ace numbers(and his park doesn't help), just trying to understand ZiPS a little more I guess. Weaver is one of those guys I've followed since his initial call-up and Fantasy impact and he was even one one guys I went for first in the DMB league...so there's probably a few years of biased interest here.

14. heyyoo Posted: February 18, 2010 at 07:02 PM (#3462861)

If Jason Bulger is projected to be your best reliever, I believe we've identified a "serious hole"

15. Walt Davis Posted: February 18, 2010 at 07:23 PM (#3462893)

the Angels are likely to be worse defensively at every position than SS compared to 2007-2009

Yeah, that was one of the things that surprised me looking at the projections. Although, really, the only change from last year is Wood at 3B ... and another year of age for the OF.

But ...

ZiPS was dinging Weaver before, it just saw greater upside in recent years

Shouldn't that show up in the variance, not (necessarily) the mean projection?

16. BobbyS Posted: February 18, 2010 at 07:31 PM (#3462906)

I wasn't even thinking about the defense, as it looks pretty much the same as last year doesn't it (In reality, not ZiPS, which included Texy last year)? Average in most spots, and then Abreu in the OF, unless Wood is expected to grab the 3b job, but that looks like it'd be a bad idea from any angle.

I appreciate the replies!

Could you post Escobar's quick projection with the Mets since he was one of those after-the-new-team-before-the-old-team transactions?

17. Spivey Posted: February 18, 2010 at 07:39 PM (#3462917)

Well, I think they need Morales to go ape #### again if they want to win the division.

18. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 18, 2010 at 07:48 PM (#3462928)

Macier Izturis is a pretty underrated player, no? .340 OBA, decent pop for a middle infielder, solid defense, can play all over the infield. I think he cost himself signing that three year $10 million contract extension. Perhaps everyone thinks he is worse than he really is because of his brother?

19. Willie Mayspedes Posted: February 18, 2010 at 08:11 PM (#3462952)

Jack Cust has the highest projected OPS+ in the division.

20. Shooty is in the Trust Tree

Posted: February 18, 2010 at 08:14 PM (#3462956)

Jack Cust has the highest projected OPS+ in the division.

That is brutally awesome and awesomely brutal.

21. alskor Posted: February 19, 2010 at 05:02 AM (#3463312)

What's striking to me is how much ZiPS likes Kazmir. Even with a somewhat lacking defense behind him. I suppose his skill set is the least harmed by that defense, but still...

Im bullish on him as well, and was sort of surprised by how mediocre the projection systems have had him so far. Though actually, PECOTA first loved him, then seemingly didn't like him... now I have no clue, but its still beta anyway.

22. Just Another Halo Victory Posted: February 19, 2010 at 11:43 AM (#3463409)

Nice work Dan! I'd love to see projections for Robb Quinlan just re-signed last week. Also, former Twins prospect Michael Ryan could figure into back-up OF spot as a non-roster invite. Other non-roster invites that could see time in Anaheim this summer would be Nate Sutton, Gary Patchett, and Andrew Romine. That being said, thanks for all you continue to bring to the baseball community. I look forward to DMB version.

23. xbhaskarx Posted: February 21, 2010 at 09:17 AM (#3464439)

I don't know what I fear least, the offense, defense, starting pitching, or relief pitching.
Of course now that I've said that they'll win 97 games and run away with the division...

24. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim

Posted: February 21, 2010 at 10:51 AM (#3464445)

I'll take the under on those ERAs from Santana and Saunders. Santana was hurt early, Saunders during the middle of the season, but both finished strong. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them both repeat 2008 again.

25. The NeverEnding Torii (oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh) Posted: February 21, 2010 at 01:40 PM (#3464449)

Wait, why are we supposed to believe that the Angels won't win the division again? I'm not much of a homer, but Jack Cust and Franklin Gutierrez are likely hitting clean-up for Oakland and Seattle this year. Figgins and Kotchman are two of my all-time favorites, but they are not difference-makers. Cliff Lee is a very good pitcher and all, but the heart of the Seattle order is not exactly striking Jim Rice Fear into anyone in 2010. Texas, once again, has a ton of power in the line-up but question marks all over the starting pitching. The more things change, the more than meets the eye or however that ol' children's tale from the sea goes.

26. zipit Posted: February 26, 2010 at 12:50 AM (#3468488)

Dan, when do you think the Excel spreadsheet with all of the projections will be available? Thanks.

27. sinicalypse Posted: March 26, 2010 at 11:41 PM (#3486972)

Texas, once again, has a ton of power in the line-up but question marks all over the starting pitching

one of those question marks is NOT scott FELDMAN! seeing as he went from 6-8 5.29/1.43 to 17-8 4.08/1.28 i'm going out on a limb that he'll continue on to 28-8 2.87/1.13 =D

28. Dan Szymborski

Posted: March 27, 2010 at 08:10 PM (#3487230)

'm going out on a limb that he'll continue on to 28-8 2.87/1.13 =D

There's a downside to this - in 2-3 years, he'd actually break baseball!

29. BWV 1129 Posted: March 27, 2010 at 09:25 PM (#3487252)

Except for his second year, Weaver's HR/FB has been essentially identical every season he's been in the majors, and ditto for is IF/FB. Anything can happen in one year, but I'm not sold on his HR/FB being a fluke.

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