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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, February 18, 2010

2010 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeheim Angels

After some losses that the team can’t easily absorb, Lackey being overpaid but solid and Figgins a significantly better

player than Wood.  If it’s possible to say such a thing, this is the most generic of the contending teams.  Like I noted last

year, this is a team that doesn’t win from having a huge amount of front-end talent, but merely from being solid everywhere

and awful nowhere.  That might seem like damnation, but building a team without serious holes isn’t the easiest thing.

The main problem the Angels have is that the competition is getting better.  The Mariners have completely overhauled the

franchise, the Ranger far system has become ridiculously productive, and even the A’s have a young pitching staff and an

offense that’ll be ordinary rather than comical.  The Angels probably weren’t a “true” 97-win team last year (if I can use

the word true for a very ethereal concept), but they’re still a good team and a reasonable contender in a very wide-open

division.  The major problem the Angels could face is injuries.  While you can say that for most teams, the Angels don’t have

a lot of spare talent at AAA - their #6 starter, unless I’ve missed a NRI, is going to be ugly and their 3 best hitters by

ZiPS are in their mid-30s.

Well, that concludes the initial team rundowns.  Projections for a couple of hundred players that didn’t run and the usual

mix of spreadsheets and DMB disks will be posted in the coming weeks.

Offensive Projections

Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Torii Hunter         cf 34 .288 .350 .489 123 466 71 134 29 1 21 80 42 88 9 3   116
Hideki Matsui*        dh 36 .281 .360 .462 111 392 58 110 21 1 16 69 47 56 1 1   113
Bobby Abreu*        lf 35 .283 .372 .436 135 516 78 146 31 3 14 82 76 100 22 7   111
Mike Napoli         c   28 .260 .352 .488 107 334 54 87 17 1 19 53 44 93 3 2   117
Kendry Morales#      1b 27 .287 .333 .485 136 499 64 143 32 2 21 78 34 89 1 3   110
Howie Kendrick       2b 26 .294 .335 .437 126 469 68 138 29 4 10 63 23 83 8 3   100
Juan Rivera         lf 31 .281 .323 .460 104 374 48 105 20 1 15 64 25 46 0 1   102
Maicer Izturis#      2b 29 .285 .348 .411 112 389 65 111 22 3 7 57 37 42 9 3   98
Erick Aybar#        ss 26 .289 .331 .406 120 419 58 121 22 6 5 48 24 51 10 5   92
Christopher Pettit     lf 25 .262 .319 .392 103 401 53 105 24 2 8 47 27 76 9 2   85
Freddy Sandoval#      3b 27 .269 .322 .387 111 450 57 121 26 3 7 52 35 76 9 4   85
Brandon Wood         3b 25 .244 .300 .422 136 505 63 123 26 2 20 66 38 134 3 1   86
Val Majewski*        rf 29 .261 .322 .383 73 261 34 68 13 2 5 28 21 52 4 2   84
Cory Aldridge*        rf 31 .244 .311 .401 91 332 36 81 15 2 11 45 31 95 2 3   84
Luis Figueroa#        2b 36 .284 .321 .383 53 183 22 52 10 1 2 22 11 16 1 1   84
Hank Conger#        c   22 .260 .313 .378 112 439 49 114 21 2 9 59 34 81 2 1   80
Reggie Willits#      cf 29 .260 .342 .332 121 346 57 90 15 2 2 32 43 64 14 6   78
Bobby Wilson         c   27 .263 .309 .374 100 350 32 92 19 1 6 44 22 58 1 1   78
Ben Johnson         1b 29 .249 .304 .371 95 334 40 83 18 1 7 40 22 68 3 2   76
Terry Evans         rf 28 .241 .288 .389 120 468 62 113 24 3 13 53 28 134 11 3   75
Mark Trumbo         1b 24 .250 .287 .385 143 561 49 140 30 2 14 69 29 123 4 4   74
Bradley Coon*        cf 27 .258 .326 .321 119 476 67 123 17 2 3 32 44 83 21 11   71
Hainley Statia#      ss 24 .259 .306 .345 99 359 45 93 21 2 2 38 23 37 7 3   70
Peter Bourjos         cf 23 .250 .296 .357 122 512 70 128 21 8 6 43 32 108 22 8   70
Jeff Mathis         c   27 .223 .289 .349 103 332 42 74 16 1 8 40 28 89 2 1   66
Nick Gorneault       lf 31 .220 .279 .356 127 450 51 99 21 2 12 57 35 130 5 4   65
Ryan Budde           c   30 .226 .285 .339 72 239 22 54 13 1 4 26 18 64 1 1   63

Defensive Projections

Name           CThr 1b     2b     3b     ss     lf     cf     rf    
Hunter                                       Av/61      
Matsui*                                Pr/96            
Abreu*                                  Pr/72       Pr/72  
Napoli         Pr                                      
Morales#          Av/107                 Fr/129       Fr/129
Kendrick                 Av/92                            
Rivera                                 Av/133       Av/133
Izturis#                Av/72   Av/80   Av/78                  
Aybar#                  Av/124 Av/124 Vg/107                
Pettit                                 Fr/92   Pr/44   Fr/92  
Sandoval#          Av/206 Fr/142 Av/118                      
Wood                         Av/121 Fr/115                
Majewski*                                Av/125 Fr/125 Av/125
Aldridge*                                Fr/90       Fr/136
Figueroa#                Av/135 Av/135 Av/135                
Conger#        Fr                                      
Willits#                                Vg/60   Fr/101 Av/83  
Wilson         Av   Av/125                                
Johnson           Fr/147                 Av/86   Av/92   Vg/86  
Evans                                   Av/78   Pr/97   Pr/97  
Trumbo             Av/151                                
Coon*                                  Vg/100 Fr/100      
Statia#                Vg/113       Vg/113                
Bourjos                                 Vg/112 Vg/112 Vg/112
Mathis         Fr                                      
Gorneault                               Av/106 Pr/149 Av/124
Budde         Vg   Av/125                                

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name           PO   EX   VG   AV   FR   PO       COMP 1       COMP 2       COMP 3
HunterTorii     CF   47%  24%  19%  8%  2%      OtisAmos       SmithAl     JohnsonLou
NapoliMike       C   50%  33%  10%  5%  2%  SeminickAndy   HayesFrankie     DietzDick
MoralesKendry     1B   6%  14%  19%  36%  24%    HarrisJohn   YoungDmitri   SheetsLarry
KendrickHowie     2B   24%  19%  20%  22%  16%    AlleyGene     AdairJerry   DuncanMariano
RiveraJuan       LF   7%  14%  16%  24%  40%      HallMel   CovingtonWes     EnnisDel
IzturisMaicer     2B   18%  19%  23%  24%  15%    MyerBuddy   LopezMickey AndersonMarlon
AybarErick       SS   5%  15%  34%  30%  15%  GuzmanCristian   FurcalRafael   AparicioLuis
PettitChristopher LF   0%  2%  4%  14%  80%    GladdenDan   AlvarezTony   SothernDenny
SandovalFreddy   3B   1%  4%  9%  23%  63%  PendletonTerry     BooneAaron   StrangeDoug
FigueroaLuis     2B   0%  0%  3%  14%  83%  CandaeleCasey     StrippJoe   VizcainoJose
WoodBrandon     3B   2%  4%  11%  26%  58%    GaettiGary   AriasGeorge   BlowersMike
MajewskiVal     RF   0%  1%  3%  7%  89%    LeachJalal     SwannPedro   ParsonsCasey
CongerHank       C   0%  4%  15%  39%  41%    WalbeckMatt     RamosJohn   NelsonJamie
WilsonBobby       C   0%  3%  9%  31%  57%    WilsonDan   FordyceBrook   MachadoRobert
WillitsReggie     CF   0%  1%  7%  25%  66%    NixonOtis   LewisDarren     MosesJohn
EvansTerry       RF   0%  1%  2%  5%  93%SanchezAlejandro     DavisButch     BarkerSean
JohnsonBen       1B   0%  0%  1%  5%  94%    JacksonRyan     AshbyChris     CromerD.T.
BourjosPeter     CF   0%  0%  2%  13%  85%    RepkoJason     MoranJavonAllensworthJermaine
TrumboMark       1B   0%  0%  1%  3%  96%    HarveyKen     DavisTommy   PenaWily Mo
StatiaHainley     SS   0%  2%  6%  21%  72%  SandovalDanny ConcepcionOnix   IzturisCesar
CoonBradley     CF   0%  0%  2%  12%  86%    OwensJerry   ThompsonMilt   ManningRick
MathisJeff       C   0%  1%  2%  11%  86%    ArdoinDanny DeFrancescoTonyConcepcionAlberto
GorneaultNick     RF   0%  0%  0%  1%  99%    HowittDann   DavidsonMark       FoxEric
BuddeRyan       C   0%  0%  1%  8%  90%    HooverPaul     LopezPedro     DavisDoug

Name         .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB
HunterTorii       34%    20%    41%    12%    3%    0%    13%    0%
NapoliMike         12%    24%    36%    14%    0%    0%    5%    0%
MoralesKendry       30%    6%    31%    6%    5%    0%    11%    0%
KendrickHowie       43%    9%    11%    3%    2%    2%    0%    0%
RiveraJuan         25%    4%    21%    4%    0%    0%    2%    0%
IzturisMaicer       31%    18%    3%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
AybarErick         34%    6%    2%    0%    0%    12%    0%    0%
PettitChristopher     8%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
SandovalFreddy     13%    4%    1%    0%    1%    0%    0%    0%
FigueroaLuis       32%    7%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
WoodBrandon         2%    1%    4%    0%    0%    0%    5%    0%
MajewskiVal       11%    4%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CongerHank         5%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
WilsonBobby         9%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
WillitsReggie       8%    12%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
EvansTerry         2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
JohnsonBen         4%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BourjosPeter       2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    27%    0%    9%
TrumboMark         3%    0%    0%    0%    2%    0%    0%    0%
StatiaHainley       7%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CoonBradley         6%    4%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    7%
MathisJeff         1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
GorneaultNick       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BuddeRyan         1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Scott Kazmir*        26   4.26 12   9 31 31   179.2 171   85 21   73 169 107
Jered Weaver         27   4.33 13 10 33 33   197.2 200   95 25   61 156 105
Joel Pineiro         31   4.45 12 11 29 29   168.0 191   83 17   36   80 103
Ervin Santana         27   4.48 10   9 28 28   176.2 182   88 25   50 153 102
Joe Saunders*        29   4.68 12 11 31 31   190.1 205   99 26   60 109   98
Matt Palmer           31   5.40   7   9 34 21   131.2 146   79 18   65   79   85
Trevor Bell           23   5.60   7 10 34 22   136.2 166   85 15   62   70   82
Jordan Walden         22   5.81   4   7 19 19   91.1 103   59 11   59   56   79
Sean O’Sullivan       22   6.03   7 13 28 26   140.1 176   94 21   58   70   76
Trevor Reckling*      21   6.21   6 12 27 27   136.1 160   94 17 104   79   74
Mike MacDonald         28   6.26   6 11 32 23   132.1 171   92 20   52   57   73
Travis Chick         26   6.28   5   9 26 19   106.0 124   74 19   62   62   73
Anthony Ortega         24   6.52   4   9 19 19   99.1 124   72 18   49   44   70
Brad Knox           28   6.59   5 11 28 24   144.2 188 106 27   59   53   69

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Jason Bulger         31   3.88   4   2 58   0   60.1   51   26   6   31   66 118
Brian Fuentes*        34   4.04   4   3 63   0   55.2   52   25   6   23   51 113
Scot Shields         34   4.09   4   3 44   0   44.0   40   20   5   22   41 112
Fernando Rodney       33   4.37   4   3 56   0   57.2   53   28   6   34   56 105
Michael Kohn         24   4.50   4   3 53   0   58.0   53   29   6   39   60 102
Richard Thompson       25   4.92   7   9 36   1   53.0   55   29   9   20   46   93
Brian Stokes         30   5.08   3   4 77   0   79.2   90   45   9   38   50   88
Kevin Jepsen         25   5.45   4   5 59   0   66.0   73   40   7   42   50   84
Robert Mosebach       25   5.54   3   4 67   0   74.2   90   46   6   42   37   82
Brad Salmon           30   5.79   4   7 45   9   93.1 106   60 12   57   60   79
Rafael Rodriguez       25   5.82   2   3 46   0   65.0   82   42   9   25   31   79
Fernando Rodriguez     26   5.99   2   4 60   0   70.2   82   47   9   49   43   76

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player         PO     TOP   MID   BOT         COMP 1         COMP 2         COMP 3
BulgerJason     RP     43%  46%  11%      DurenRyne       ClearMark       KernJim
FuentesBrian     RP     35%  49%  16%    MartinezTippy   RemlingerMike     OroscoJesse
ShieldsScot     RP     26%  51%  24%    BerenguerJuan   KershnerJason     StoddardTim
KazmirScott     SP     48%  48%  4%        GrayTedValenzuelaFernando     UnderwoodTom
WeaverJered     SP     37%  57%  6%    McDowellJack   VazquezJavier   FernandezAlex
PineiroJoel     SP     35%  48%  17%        BarrJim       FriendBob     BurdetteLew
SantanaErvin     SP     29%  61%  10%  SandersonScott   VazquezJavier     HarenDanny
KohnMichael     RP     16%  53%  30%      ClearMark     LittellMark     BruneyBrian
SaundersJoe     SP     18%  62%  19%  WashburnJarrod   HoneycuttRick   McGregorScott
ThompsonRich     RP     8%  40%  52%      LaddPete       NeshekPat   HernandezSantos
PalmerMatt       SP     7%  33%  60%      BenesAlan       GlynnRyan     WrightJamey
JepsenKevin     RP     1%  26%  73%    ChavezAnthony     BowlesBrian       ShadeMike
MosebachRobert   RP     2%  23%  75%      SiskTommie     HerbertRay       RossGary
BellTrevor       SP     2%  31%  67%      SmithDan   WestbrookJake   NunezClemente
SalmonBrad       RP     0%  10%  90%    McLearyMarty   HendersonRyan   JuelsgaardJarod
WaldenJordan     SP     2%  21%  77%  HendricksonBen   MitchellLarry       RitzKevin
RodriguezRafael   RP     1%  13%  86%      SantosReid   DeLosSantosRich   SpeignerJimmy
RodriguezFernando RP     0%  8%  91%    HendersonRyan SlocumbHeathcliff       BakerRyan
O’SullivanSean   SP     0%  13%  87%      BauerPeter   RasnerDarrell     BennettJeff
RecklingTrevor   SP     0%  6%  93%    WodnickiMike     PalsJordan   MartinezJesus
MacdonaldMichael   SP     0%  7%  93%      AugustDon     MagraneJim     AhearnePat
ChickTravis     SP     0%  8%  92%      CaleroKiko       ClayDanny     BakerSteve
OrtegaAnthony     SP     0%  5%  95%    CooganPatrick     AhernBrian   BucktrotKeith
KnoxBrad       SP     0%  2%  98%    MiddletonKyle     HinckleyMike     RobertsNick

Player         130 ERA+  100 ERA+  K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9

<1
BulgerJason 36% 82% 92% 0% 70%
FuentesBrian 28% 79% 52% 1% 64%
ShieldsScot 26% 69% 59% 0% 69%
KazmirScott 10% 74% 68% 1% 44%
WeaverJered 6% 66% 13% 5% 36%
PineiroJoel 9% 58% 0% 63% 71%
SantanaErvin 5% 59% 40% 10% 22%
KohnMichael 12% 56% 83% 0% 54%
SaundersJoe 2% 46% 0% 5% 25%
ThompsonRich 5% 41% 42% 3% 22%
PalmerMatt 2% 17% 4% 0% 36%
JepsenKevin 1% 17% 10% 0% 64%
MosebachRobert 1% 16% 0% 0% 80%
BellTrevor 0% 8% 0% 0% 55%
SalmonBrad 0% 6% 1% 0% 32%
WaldenJordan 0% 6% 0% 0% 43%
RodriguezRafael 0% 10% 0% 2% 36%
RodriguezFernando 0% 7% 0% 0% 51%
O'SullivanSean 0% 1% 0% 0% 22%
RecklingTrevor 0% 1% 0% 0% 42%
MacdonaldMichael 0% 1% 0% 0% 18%
ChickTravis 0% 1% 0% 0% 10%
OrtegaAnthony 0% 1% 0% 0% 8%
KnoxBrad 0% 0% 0% 0% 4%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name           BA OBP SLG   G   AB     R     H   2B 3B   HR RBI   BB   SO SB CS OPS+
NapoliMike     .247 .342 .457 1316 4083   634   1010 192 11 214 597   541   1224 39 30 107
AybarErick     .279 .322 .381 1287 4360   588   1218 201 52   46 476   244   569 88 50   83
MoralesKendry   .277 .326 .472 1120 4034   507   1118 249 12 171 615   286   767   9 19 105
HunterTorii     .273 .331 .466 2276 8441   1255   2308 487 36 355 1345   675   1664 213 88 106
AbreuBobby     .293 .394 .472 2603 9535   1635   2796 617 67 319 1579 1612   2017 422 135 125
MatsuiHideki   .287 .366 .475 1466 5273   768   1516 294 17 220 866   646   765 15   9 120

Player         W   L   S   ERA     G   GS   IP     H   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
KazmirScott     156   136   0 4.21   430   429 2474   2340   303   1063   2431   108
PineiroJoel     166   159   4 4.50   481   414 2589   2853   279   674   1440   98
SantanaErvin     133   122   0 4.64   363   361 2230   2285   328   692   1902   98
SaundersJoe     118   103   0 4.66   298   298 1806   1946   252   593   1042   98

All figures in % based on projection playing time

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

 

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Astros

A’s

Blue

Jays

Braves

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips_projections_milwaukee_brewers/">Brewers

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips_projections_st_louis_cardinals/">Cardinals

>

Cubs

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips_projections_arizona_diamondbacks/">Diamondbacks

A>



HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips_projections_los_angeles_dodgers/">Dodgers

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips_projections_san_francisco_giants/">Giants

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips_projections_cleveland_indians/">Indians

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips_projections_seattle_mariners/">Mariners

Marlins

Mets

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips_projections_washington_nationals/">Nationals

<

BR>

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips_projections_baltimore_orioles/">Orioles

Padres

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips_projections_philadelphia_phillies/">Phillies

<

BR>

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips_projections_pittsburgh_pirates/">Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips_projections_kansas_city_royals/">Royals

Tigers

Twins

White

Sox

Yankees




These projections were sponsored in part by:

image

width="570" height="75" />

Dan Szymborski Posted: February 18, 2010 at 06:11 AM | 32 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. RollingWave Posted: February 18, 2010 at 06:30 AM (#3462541)
Bobby Abreu's career line there is a lot closer to the HOF than his actual voting is going to be.
   2. Boxkutter Posted: February 18, 2010 at 06:42 AM (#3462543)
Those Jepsen numbers can't be correct can they? I know his ERA has been 4.86 in his two years in the majors, but his FIP has been 2.86 because of his high BABIP (360 career). His walks seem really out of whack. Career 3.29 per 9 in the majors, but it was around 5.5 in the minors. Just by eyeballing it, I would say it looks to be over 6 per 9 on the Zips.
   3. Walt Davis Posted: February 18, 2010 at 06:51 AM (#3462544)
Abreu and Matsui seem to be missing in the ODDIBE tables.

And Dan, will you ever stop being mean to Brandon Wood? :-)
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 18, 2010 at 07:15 AM (#3462550)
Jepsen's projection is correct.
   5. Boxkutter Posted: February 18, 2010 at 07:18 AM (#3462551)
Ugh, Dan. You just killed my DMB offseason lol.
   6. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: February 18, 2010 at 07:18 AM (#3462552)
If Wood's performance leads to the conclusion that Figgins is significantly better than he- Izturis will become the everyday third baseman. The difference between Izturis and Figgins is very small.

I'd also feel real comfortable betting the over on Jepsen for next year. After developing the cutter/slider mid-year, he was very effective in the second half, even while fighting some arm problems. If he's fully healthy, I suspect he's a good bullpen arm and puts up some nice numbers.

In any case Mr. Szymborski, your obvious anti-Angel bias not withstanding, thanks for the effort.
   7. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: February 18, 2010 at 07:25 AM (#3462554)
I think the starting rotation does better than Zips says they will.
   8. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: February 18, 2010 at 07:41 AM (#3462556)
That's a pretty nice projection for Hunter, except for the games played.
   9. BobbyS Posted: February 18, 2010 at 07:52 AM (#3462557)
I don't understand how Weaver gets that weak of a projection at all..I don't remember the ERA+ projection last year (I assume it was around 115-120?)..but still.

____________             Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K  ERA
09 projection             26   3.75  13   8  30  30   180.0  174   75  19   49  148  ???
09 Actual stats           26   3.75  16   8  33  33   211.0  196   88  26   66  174  120  (4.04 FIP)

10 Projection             27   4.33  13  10  33  33   197.2  200   95  25   61  156  105 


His career ERA+ is a 121 and his FIP has never went above 4.06. Is there something that can explain what ZiPs sees here to cause this? Is it cause you take out his big rookie year? Wouldn't it be logical to keep that in there for a young player who should be improving at this age, in order to get a more believable projection....or do we expect that he goes backward toward 2008, in which his FIP allowed for a better projection last year.

Aside from him, nobody really stands out. I expect Kazmir to top that projection, if he is/stays healthy, and maybe Fuentes. I like the over on Morales and Rivera, and maybe even Macier, but they all look in line with expectations.
   10. LB813 Posted: February 18, 2010 at 03:34 PM (#3462609)
Okay. Now that all the teams are out. Do we have a potential date for the first draft disk?

On a side not, I almost traded for Kendry Morales a couple of days ago, now Im glad I didnt. I figured he would be between a 120 and 125 OPS+ guy.
   11. steagles Posted: February 18, 2010 at 03:40 PM (#3462613)

Ugh, Dan. You just killed my DMB offseason lol.
lance cormier, blaine boyer, or mike koplove could be made available, if you'd like.
   12. Cabbage Posted: February 18, 2010 at 06:26 PM (#3462822)
I'd take the under on the Angels.

The major problem the Angels could face is injuries. While you can say that for most teams, the Angels don't have a lot of spare talent at AAA - their #6 starter, unless I've missed a NRI, is going to be ugly and their 3 best hitters by ZiPS are in their mid-30s.

Exactly, the outfielders are either well into their thirties, or unlikely to be much use. There is age in the pen. Without depth to fill in the gaps, I see this team struggling to get near 90 wins.

Sure, there is a decent upside here if everything breaks right. If the older starters can stay healthy, and someone from Morales/Kendrick/Weaver/Santana becomes a legit all-star, then they might be quite good.

To use BPro's terminology, there is a much higher collapse rate than breakout rate. I'd be pessimistic.
   13. BobbyS Posted: February 18, 2010 at 06:34 PM (#3462833)
Yeah, ZiPS sees Weaver's upside as less every year he doesn't achieve it.

Last year, ZiPS nailed his 3.75 ERA and K rate, and looked good on his Hits/9 and HR/9. So, he doesn't achieve his upside, but meets expectations, and then loses all that upside? Basically, his projection was doomed unless he put up another 178 ERA+, and that seems asking a bit much.

Weaver's also been kind of lucky with his homers allowed - his xFIPs are significantly higher.

That would make sense...but his xFIPs have always been higher, and it never pushed his projection like this. Why does it catch up with him now?

Not that I expect him to put up Ace numbers(and his park doesn't help), just trying to understand ZiPS a little more I guess. Weaver is one of those guys I've followed since his initial call-up and Fantasy impact and he was even one one guys I went for first in the DMB league...so there's probably a few years of biased interest here.
   14. heyyoo Posted: February 18, 2010 at 07:02 PM (#3462861)
If Jason Bulger is projected to be your best reliever, I believe we've identified a "serious hole"
   15. Walt Davis Posted: February 18, 2010 at 07:23 PM (#3462893)
the Angels are likely to be worse defensively at every position than SS compared to 2007-2009

Yeah, that was one of the things that surprised me looking at the projections. Although, really, the only change from last year is Wood at 3B ... and another year of age for the OF.

But ...

ZiPS was dinging Weaver before, it just saw greater upside in recent years

Shouldn't that show up in the variance, not (necessarily) the mean projection?
   16. BobbyS Posted: February 18, 2010 at 07:31 PM (#3462906)
I wasn't even thinking about the defense, as it looks pretty much the same as last year doesn't it (In reality, not ZiPS, which included Texy last year)? Average in most spots, and then Abreu in the OF, unless Wood is expected to grab the 3b job, but that looks like it'd be a bad idea from any angle.

I appreciate the replies!

Could you post Escobar's quick projection with the Mets since he was one of those after-the-new-team-before-the-old-team transactions?
   17. Spivey Posted: February 18, 2010 at 07:39 PM (#3462917)
Well, I think they need Morales to go ape #### again if they want to win the division.
   18. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 18, 2010 at 07:48 PM (#3462928)
Macier Izturis is a pretty underrated player, no? .340 OBA, decent pop for a middle infielder, solid defense, can play all over the infield. I think he cost himself signing that three year $10 million contract extension. Perhaps everyone thinks he is worse than he really is because of his brother?
   19. Al Kaline Trio Posted: February 18, 2010 at 08:11 PM (#3462952)
Jack Cust has the highest projected OPS+ in the division.
   20. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: February 18, 2010 at 08:14 PM (#3462956)
Jack Cust has the highest projected OPS+ in the division.

That is brutally awesome and awesomely brutal.
   21. alskor Posted: February 19, 2010 at 05:02 AM (#3463312)
What's striking to me is how much ZiPS likes Kazmir. Even with a somewhat lacking defense behind him. I suppose his skill set is the least harmed by that defense, but still...

Im bullish on him as well, and was sort of surprised by how mediocre the projection systems have had him so far. Though actually, PECOTA first loved him, then seemingly didn't like him... now I have no clue, but its still beta anyway.
   22. Just Another Halo Victory Posted: February 19, 2010 at 11:43 AM (#3463409)
Nice work Dan! I'd love to see projections for Robb Quinlan just re-signed last week. Also, former Twins prospect Michael Ryan could figure into back-up OF spot as a non-roster invite. Other non-roster invites that could see time in Anaheim this summer would be Nate Sutton, Gary Patchett, and Andrew Romine. That being said, thanks for all you continue to bring to the baseball community. I look forward to DMB version.
   23. xbhaskarx Posted: February 21, 2010 at 09:17 AM (#3464439)
I don't know what I fear least, the offense, defense, starting pitching, or relief pitching.
Of course now that I've said that they'll win 97 games and run away with the division...
   24. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: February 21, 2010 at 10:51 AM (#3464445)
I'll take the under on those ERAs from Santana and Saunders. Santana was hurt early, Saunders during the middle of the season, but both finished strong. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them both repeat 2008 again.
   25. The NeverEnding Torii (oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh) Posted: February 21, 2010 at 01:40 PM (#3464449)
Wait, why are we supposed to believe that the Angels won't win the division again? I'm not much of a homer, but Jack Cust and Franklin Gutierrez are likely hitting clean-up for Oakland and Seattle this year. Figgins and Kotchman are two of my all-time favorites, but they are not difference-makers. Cliff Lee is a very good pitcher and all, but the heart of the Seattle order is not exactly striking Jim Rice Fear into anyone in 2010. Texas, once again, has a ton of power in the line-up but question marks all over the starting pitching. The more things change, the more than meets the eye or however that ol' children's tale from the sea goes.
   26. zipit Posted: February 26, 2010 at 12:50 AM (#3468488)
Dan, when do you think the Excel spreadsheet with all of the projections will be available? Thanks.
   27. sinicalypse Posted: March 26, 2010 at 11:41 PM (#3486972)
Texas, once again, has a ton of power in the line-up but question marks all over the starting pitching


one of those question marks is NOT scott FELDMAN! seeing as he went from 6-8 5.29/1.43 to 17-8 4.08/1.28 i'm going out on a limb that he'll continue on to 28-8 2.87/1.13 =D
   28. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 27, 2010 at 08:10 PM (#3487230)
'm going out on a limb that he'll continue on to 28-8 2.87/1.13 =D

There's a downside to this - in 2-3 years, he'd actually break baseball!
   29. BWV 1129 Posted: March 27, 2010 at 09:25 PM (#3487252)
Except for his second year, Weaver's HR/FB has been essentially identical every season he's been in the majors, and ditto for is IF/FB. Anything can happen in one year, but I'm not sold on his HR/FB being a fluke.

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