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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, January 15, 2010

2010 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeles Dodgers

While the Phillies are possibly the most dangerous team in the NL with their front-line talent, I think the Dodgers are the superior team over the season itself, thanks to better depth.

One thing the Dodgers demonstrate is that who the GM is can be overrated - the organization itself is top-notch and a testament to the work that Dan Evans and to a lesser extent, Paul DePodesta kept the team running while it recovered from the Kevin Malone era.

Even with a lot of the names on the list here only because they haven’t signed yet, the Dodgers could trade the entire current bullpen and cobble together a fairly decent one from the remaining depth.  Luckily, they don’t have to do that.  Of the pitchers I’ve projected so far (I’ve done most of the pitchers for all but the Braves, A’s, and Angels), the Dodger bullpen sports 3 of the 6 lowest reliever ERA+s.

The team still could use another starter and they’ll probably add one (at last check, they’re still in the running to bring Jon Garland back).

Offensive Projections

Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Manny Ramirez         lf 38 .290 .405 .538 128 448 79 130 26 2 27 102 79 111 1 1   152
Andre Ethier*        rf 28 .286 .365 .506 146 510 80 146 35 4 23 102 59 98 3 2   132
Matt Kemp           cf 25 .300 .354 .501 159 593 100 178 33 7 24 110 50 142 21 6   128
James Loney*        1b 26 .292 .356 .444 156 568 73 166 33 4 15 99 57 76 4 2   115
Casey Blake         3b 36 .268 .343 .455 121 437 61 117 25 3 17 74 46 103 2 2   113
Russell Martin       c   27 .272 .367 .392 140 497 74 135 25 1 11 76 68 77 10 5   106
Jim Thome*          1b 39 .236 .339 .444 114 369 54 87 17 0 20 76 58 118 0 0   110
Orlando Hudson#      2b 32 .275 .346 .410 123 466 64 128 26 5 9 66 50 85 5 1   104
Doug Mientkiewicz*    1b 36 .266 .341 .404 74 188 27 50 12 1 4 32 20 28 0 0   101
Rafael Furcal#        ss 32 .275 .341 .384 113 466 76 128 22 4 7 47 47 70 11 4   96
Mitch Jones         rf 32 .234 .305 .461 93 334 42 78 18 2 18 68 31 113 2 1   103
Blake Dewitt*        2b 24 .250 .329 .397 136 456 61 114 23 7 10 70 52 78 2 1   95
Ronnie Belliard       2b 35 .267 .320 .409 109 330 40 88 18 1 9 50 26 64 2 1   95
Ivan DeJesus         ss 23 .271 .341 .357 100 387 66 105 16 1 5 43 40 76 8 1   89
Brett Harper*        1b 28 .261 .296 .422 112 391 37 102 22 1 13 59 19 75 0 0   91
A.J. Ellis           c   29 .250 .353 .326 99 328 40 82 15 2 2 45 49 62 1 2   86
Jamie Hoffmann       rf 25 .253 .317 .360 124 455 58 115 20 4 7 69 42 84 12 7   83
Jamey Carroll         2b 36 .261 .332 .334 96 299 48 78 12 2 2 29 29 54 4 2   81
Mark Loretta         3b 38 .249 .322 .335 103 209 24 52 10 1 2 36 23 28 0 0   78
Xavier Paul*        cf 25 .252 .308 .364 89 330 41 83 16 3 5 40 26 81 7 4   81
Sergio Garcia         3b 30 .250 .315 .345 81 252 35 63 13 1 3 29 22 42 2 1   79
Jason Repko         cf 29 .233 .298 .363 120 386 54 90 17 3 9 42 29 100 11 4   78
Luis Maza           2b 30 .255 .304 .342 105 345 42 88 15 3 3 39 21 55 1 1   74
Angel Berroa         ss 32 .250 .298 .360 94 292 37 73 15 1 5 36 16 50 1 2   77
Brad Ausmus         c   41 .244 .311 .326 48 135 11 33 5 0 2 17 11 28 0 0   72
Chin-lung Hu         ss 26 .257 .295 .353 128 470 59 121 20 5 5 49 24 65 7 3   74
Andrew Lambo*        lf 21 .238 .284 .360 137 534 59 127 30 1 11 71 34 135 2 2   73
Juan Castro         ss 38 .246 .288 .327 72 171 23 42 8 0 2 18 11 35 0 0   66
Lucas May           c   25 .223 .277 .349 98 373 39 83 18 1 9 47 25 105 2 2   68
Trayvon Robinson#      cf 22 .221 .280 .340 134 535 70 118 22 6 10 55 42 171 17 11   67
Danny Ardoin         c   35 .219 .280 .325 47 151 16 33 8 1 2 15 10 38 0 0   63

Defensive Projections

Name           CThr 1b     2b     3b     ss     lf     cf     rf    
Ramirez                                 Pr/101            
Ethier*                                Fr/121       Fr/102
Kemp                                         Av/79   Av/113
Loney*            Av/105                                
Blake             Av/92       Av/90                      
Martin         Av                                      
Thome*            Pr/200                                
Hudson#                Av/99                            
Mientkiewicz*        Vg/66       Fr/175                      
Furcal#                            Av/107                
Jones             Fr/199                 Pr/104       Pr/104
Dewitt*                Fr/124 Vg/92                      
Belliard           Av/93   Fr/93   Fr/124                      
DeJesus                 Av/154       Av/154                
Harper*            Fr/139                 Pr/139            
Ellis         Av                                      
Hoffmann                                 Vg/142 Fr/44   Vg/142
Carroll                 Vg/74   Vg/126 Fr/120                
Loretta           Av/57   Av/57   Fr/57   Fr/101                
Paul*                                  Av/114 Fr/166 Av/114
Garcia             Av/79   Av/79   Av/79   Pr/127                
Repko                                   Vg/159 Fr/113 Vg/159
Maza                   Fr/124 Av/124 Fr/124 Av/124 Fr/124 Av/124
Berroa                 Fr/95   Fr/95   Fr/95                  
Ausmus         Av                                      
Hu                     Vg/91   Vg/91   Vg/91                  
Lambo*                                  Fr/146            
Castro                 Fr/98       Fr/98                  
May           Fr                                      
Robinson#                                    Av/185      
Ardoin         Av                                      

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name           PO   EX   VG   AV   FR   PO       COMP 1       COMP 2       COMP 3
RamirezManny     LF   88%  10%  1%  0%  0%    EvansDwight     BurksEllis   RobinsonFrank
KempMatt       CF   75%  16%  7%  1%  0%  GonzalezTony   KellyRoberto     JonesCleon
EthierAndre     RF   46%  34%  12%  6%  2%  HigginsonBobby     EnnisDel     WardPete
LoneyJames       1B   10%  27%  25%  28%  10%  GrimmCharlie   LockmanWhitey     GraceMark
BlakeCasey       3B   18%  34%  28%  15%  5%      SmithAl     GarnerPhil     HodgesGil
HudsonOrlando     2B   32%  19%  19%  18%  12%  PhillipsTony MorandiniMickey     DurhamRay
MartinRussell     C   30%  34%  22%  12%  2%    FerrellRick       LopezAl     RuelMuddy
ThomeJim       1B   8%  20%  24%  34%  14%  McCoveyWillie KillebrewHarmon     StairsMatt
MientkiewiczDoug   1B   1%  9%  15%  41%  34%  KluszewskiTed     CartyRico     SnyderRuss
FurcalRafael     SS   21%  26%  32%  16%  5%    VizquelOmar   FernandezTonyMaranvilleRabbit
JonesMitch       RF   7%  13%  18%  28%  34%    MartinJerry     MoutonLyle   RobinsonBill
BelliardRon     2B   15%  19%  24%  26%  16%    AuriliaRich   BordickMike PendletonTerry
DewittBlake     2B   8%  14%  23%  33%  22%    AliceaLuis     HandleyLee   StillwellKurt
DeJesusIvan     SS   10%  22%  38%  22%  8%  MichaelsCass   TrammellAlan   StockerKevin
HarperBrett     1B   0%  2%  5%  29%  63%    BraunRandy   RiveraCarlos     HarrisJohn
HoffmannJamie     RF   0%  1%  2%  8%  89%      SmithIra     PetersReed   WohlfordJim
CarrollJamey     2B   1%  2%  8%  25%  64%    AliceaLuis   MichaelGene     GantnerJim
EllisA.J.        C   2%  9%  23%  42%  24%    AusmusBrad   GoochJohnny RodriguezEllie
PaulXavier       CF   1%  1%  6%  27%  65%  SullivanCory EldridgeRashad       WestSam
GarciaSergio     3B   0%  2%  4%  15%  80%  BridgesRocky   MachemerDave St. PierreMaxim
LorettaMark     3B   0%  0%  1%  10%  89%    SuderPete   GonzalesRene     JudgeJoe
HuChin-lung     SS   1%  2%  13%  36%  48%  IzturisCesar   HolbertAaron GriffinAlfredo
BerroaAngel     SS   1%  2%  9%  30%  58%    MartinBilly     MearesPat     JohnsonBob
LamboAndrew     LF   0%  0%  0%  1%  99%  AndersonGarret   O’LearyTroy     RyalMark
GonzalezJuan     2B   0%  1%  2%  8%  89%    ScalesBobby     HeffnerDon     BeckClyde
CastroJuan       SS   0%  0%  3%  21%  76%    SpeierChrisMaranvilleRabbit   JurgesBilly
MayLuke         C   0%  0%  1%  15%  84%  ColbertCraig     PenaAngelConcepcionAlberto
ArdoinDanny       C   0%  0%  1%  5%  95%  DifeliceMike     KnorrRandy SantiagoBenito

Name         .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB
RamirezManny       40%    88%    79%    76%    1%    0%    35%    0%
KempMatt         49%    22%    45%    25%    7%    19%    22%    9%
EthierAndre       30%    35%    49%    30%    11%    3%    18%    0%
LoneyJames         38%    23%    12%    8%    7%    4%    2%    0%
BlakeCasey         12%    12%    13%    6%    0%    1%    4%    0%
HudsonOrlando       20%    17%    4%    3%    2%    7%    0%    0%
MartinRussell       11%    31%    1%    5%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ThomeJim           3%    15%    21%    7%    0%    0%    7%    0%
MientkiewiczDoug     21%    20%    4%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
FurcalRafael       19%    12%    1%    1%    0%    4%    0%    0%
JonesMitch         2%    1%    18%    4%    0%    0%    3%    0%
BelliardRon       14%    4%    5%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
DewittBlake         2%    3%    1%    0%    0%    18%    0%    0%
DeJesusIvan       15%    10%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HarperBrett         7%    0%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HoffmannJamie       2%    1%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
CarrollJamey       10%    9%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
EllisA.J.          4%    21%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
PaulXavier         4%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
GarciaSergio       5%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
LorettaMark       11%    9%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HuChin-lung         4%    0%    0%    0%    0%    4%    0%    0%
BerroaAngel         4%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
LamboAndrew         0%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%    0%
GonzalezJuan       1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CastroJuan         6%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
MayLuke           0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ArdoinDanny         2%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Clayton Kershaw*      22   3.06 11   5 34 32   176.2 139   60 11   84 175 137
Chad Billingsley       25   3.34 15   9 33 33   199.1 173   74 16   76 190 126
Hiroki Kuroda         35   3.56   9   6 25 25   144.0 138   57 13   32   95 120
Josh Lindblom         23   3.75   4   3 25 13   72.0   67   30   7   23   55 114
Giancarlo Alvarado     32   3.89 10   8 26 24   138.2 126   60 16   59 118 109
Jon Garland           30   4.05 12 10 31 31   202.0 210   91 21   56 110 105
James McDonald         25   4.43   8   9 28 28   146.1 140   72 21   65 121   96
Eric Stults*          30   4.43   8   9 27 24   134.0 141   66 15   50   89   96
Eric Milton*          34   4.50   5   5 16 16   92.0   95   46 14   25   63   95
Chris Withrow         21   4.54   8   9 26 23   113.0 106   57 10   76   94   94
Jason Schmidt         37   4.61   2   3   9   9   41.0   41   21   4   19   26   92
Charlie Haeger         26   4.72 10 12 31 25   167.2 168   88 21   82 104   90
Vicente Padilla       32   4.84   8 10 27 27   150.2 161   81 20   57 104   88
Jeff Weaver           33   4.93   5   7 26 13   98.2 109   54 14   33   67   86
Josh Towers           33   4.93   6   7 25 16   98.2 113   54 14   26   65   88
John Ely             24   5.27   7 11 27 27   140.0 150   82 21   64   86   82
J.D. Durbin           28   5.50   5 10 32 18   113.0 127   69 15   61   69   78
Carlos Monasterios     24   5.87   4   8 30 11   87.1   99   57 16   42   54   73

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Jonathan Broxton       26   2.25   7   1 79   0   80.0   55   20   5   28 109 189
George Sherrill*      33   2.76   3   1 66   0   58.2   44   18   5   24   67 154
Hong-chih Kuo*        28   2.82   2   1 42   0   44.2   35   14   4   15   51 151
Will Ohman*          32   3.79   2   1 54   0   38.0   35   16   4   15   33 112
Ronald Belisario       27   3.82   4   3 61   1   68.1   63   29   7   30   53 112
Ramon Troncoso         27   3.86   5   4 66   0   81.2   82   35   6   32   56 110
Guillermo Mota         36   3.90   4   3 57   0   60.0   55   26   7   23   44 109
Scott Elbert*        24   3.91   5   4 37 12   92.0   79   40 10   46   94 109
Cory Wade           27   4.03   3   3 52   1   73.2   67   33 11   25   53 106
Justin Miller         32   4.04   4   3 61   0   64.2   58   29   7   35   64 106
Armando Zerpa*        23   4.30   2   2 27   0   46.0   44   22   4   26   39   99
Carmen Cali*          31   4.50   2   2 35   1   46.0   48   23   4   19   32   95
Brent Leach*          27   4.59   2   2 52   0   51.0   46   26   5   35   42   93
Jon Link             26   4.61   2   3 55   0   56.2   54   29   7   31   48   94
Javy Guerra           24   4.65   3   3 47   0   62.0   59   32   5   43   52   92
Travis Schlichting     25   4.76   2   3 29   0   39.2   40   21   4   21   26   89

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player         PO     TOP   MID   BOT         COMP 1         COMP 2         COMP 3
BroxtonJonathan   RP     98%  2%  0%    GossageRich   BedrosianSteve       SmithLee
SherrillGeorge   RP     86%  13%  1%    RichertPete     MarteDamaso   RemlingerMike
KuoHong-Chih     RP     79%  20%  2%      DavisMark     RhodesArthur     CharltonNorm
KershawClayton   SP     94%  6%  0%      DowningAl     McDowellSam     EstesShawn
BillingsleyChad   SP     86%  14%  0%      HudsonTim     KileDarryl     GubiczaMark
KurodaHiroki     SP     73%  25%  2%      HerediaGil     TapaniKevin       LieberJon
LindblomJoshua   SP     38%  48%  14%    PaniaguaJose     LoeKameron       GrantMark
OhmanWill       RP     34%  46%  20%  SchoeneweisScott     FloresRandy     SearageRay
BelisarioRonald   RP     25%  59%  16%    PufferBrandon       AllenNeil     HoemeSteve
TroncosoRamon     RP     28%  54%  18%    WilliamsTodd       LeeMark   MontalvoRafael
AlvaradoGiancarlo SP     51%  45%  5%    PuleoCharlie     GoodenDwight       BereJason
MotaGuillermo     RP     28%  48%  24%      MadduxMike   CarraraGiovanni       BruskeJim
ElbertScott     SP     33%  54%  13%    WadeTerrell       ScurryRod       BrettKen
WadeCory       RP     17%  55%  28%    FraserWillie     EufemiaFrank   AthertonKeith
MillerJustin     RP     23%  54%  23%    HoughCharlie       LeeDavid SlocumbHeathcliff
GarlandJon       SP     47%  42%  10%      EilandDave     AhearnePat         RoaJoe
ZerpaArmando     RP     16%  40%  45%    WigginsScott   VasquezCarlos     McBrideMacay
McDonaldJames     SP     7%  53%  40%      ShimpTommy     WitasickJay     CorreiaKevin
StultsEric       SP     18%  56%  26%      WaitsRick     FilsonPete     OliverDarren
CaliCarmen       RP     15%  38%  47%      RizzoTodd       GalloMike     BrunsonWill
MiltonEric       SP     18%  46%  36%    McGregorScott   SplittorffPaul     BeattyBlaine
WithrowChris     SP     16%  53%  31%    ElliottDonnie     CoffmanKevin   WilliamsFrank
LeachBrent       RP     10%  39%  51%      TolarKevin     BurkeErick   WiegandtScott
SchmidtJason     SP     25%  32%  43%      TorrezMike   TrachselSteve   EricksonScott
GuerraJavy       RP     8%  46%  46%    ChavezAnthony     BowlesBrian     BoxbergerRod
HaegerCharlie     SP     6%  56%  37%      ParksDanny     ClaryMarty     RoscoeGreg
SchlichtingTravis RP     12%  29%  59%      EyreWillie       SilvaTed   EmilianoJamie
PadillaVicente   SP     7%  48%  45%    VuckovichPete     ThomasEvan       EldredCal
WeaverJeff       SP     4%  29%  67%    BoskieShawn   DriskillTravis     CorpasManuel
DurbinJ.D.      SP     1%  16%  83%    DrumrightMike       FordBen     EnochsChris
MonasteriosCarlos SP     0%  4%  96%    RobinsonJeff     NovoaRafael     CroghanAndy

Player         130 ERA+  100 ERA+  K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9

<1
BroxtonJonathan 97% 100% 99% 4% 95%
SherrillGeorge 81% 98% 96% 1% 88%
KuoHong-Chih 79% 97% 94% 11% 85%
KershawClayton 67% 99% 82% 0% 98%
BillingsleyChad 49% 97% 71% 0% 89%
KurodaHiroki 31% 89% 1% 59% 80%
LindblomJoshua 32% 82% 11% 9% 69%
OhmanWill 25% 72% 37% 3% 64%
BelisarioRonald 25% 74% 11% 0% 77%
TroncosoRamon 17% 72% 2% 1% 93%
AlvaradoGiancarlo 15% 79% 30% 0% 51%
MotaGuillermo 22% 70% 9% 3% 65%
ElbertScott 23% 81% 84% 0% 55%
WadeCory 13% 66% 5% 4% 29%
MillerJustin 17% 65% 74% 0% 63%
GarlandJon 15% 72% 1% 18% 68%
ZerpaArmando 11% 47% 32% 0% 75%
McDonaldJames 4% 46% 40% 0% 25%
StultsEric 3% 39% 1% 2% 60%
CaliCarmen 10% 45% 5% 2% 74%
MiltonEric 5% 34% 6% 23% 23%
WithrowChris 3% 36% 27% 0% 84%
LeachBrent 6% 41% 27% 0% 72%
SchmidtJason 9% 41% 4% 1% 75%
GuerraJavy 6% 40% 31% 0% 83%
HaegerCharlie 0% 22% 0% 0% 42%
SchlichtingTravis 7% 32% 3% 0% 55%
PadillaVicente 1% 20% 2% 1% 30%
WeaverJeff 4% 26% 5% 8% 32%
DurbinJ.D. 0% 4% 1% 0% 38%
MonasteriosCarlos 0% 2% 0% 0% 10%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name           BA OBP SLG   G   AB     R     H   2B 3B   HR RBI   BB   SO SB CS OPS+
MartinRussell   .263 .358 .373 1891 6717   969   1766 304 17 135 987   914   1129 173 83   96
BlakeCasey     .262 .334 .441 1531 5514   783   1446 318 26 204 802   541   1274 41 38 105
FurcalRafael   .276 .342 .391 1985 8096   1321   2238 378 78 132 724   801   1220 324 103   92
LoneyJames     .286 .350 .434 1937 6985   878   1995 365 52 189 1333   704   989 54 29 109
EthierAndre     .276 .353 .471 1828 6348   934   1749 390 44 255 1149   710   1281 41 35 118
KempMatt       .287 .345 .473 2411 8867   1460   2549 447 82 344 1548   789   2305 267 94 117
RamirezManny   .308 .408 .577 2667 9586   1779   2948 623 26 636 2139 1556   2164 39 36 153
HudsonOrlando   .274 .341 .411 1644 6077   805   1663 337 68 121 767   608   1083 69 25   96
ThomeJim       .273 .397 .544 2539 8548   1605   2333 450 24 607 1733 1746   2583 19 19 143

Player         W   L   S   ERA     G   GS   IP     H   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
BillingsleyChad   209   136   0 3.59   507   462 2835   2537   266   1213   2724   119
KershawClayton   145   81   0 3.24   459   448 2405   1911   180   1217   2459   131

All figures in % based on projection playing time

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Giants

Indians

Mariners

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees




These projections were sponsored in part by:

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Dan Szymborski Posted: January 15, 2010 at 06:54 AM | 91 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Tripon Posted: January 15, 2010 at 07:08 AM (#3438163)
Awesome.
   2. akrasian Posted: January 15, 2010 at 07:17 AM (#3438164)
Just think how good they could be if their owner(s) weren't going through a bitter and very public divorce.
   3. Patriot87 Posted: January 15, 2010 at 07:25 AM (#3438166)
Lindblom is a joke
   4. Tripon Posted: January 15, 2010 at 07:35 AM (#3438170)
Why?

Also, I'm glad ZiPS thinks every starter on the team can hit.
   5. kingofthehobos Posted: January 15, 2010 at 07:43 AM (#3438172)
Something seems off here. According to ZiPS, Giancarlo Alvarado, the 32 year old AAAA pitcher who has never even seen the majors, would be the ace of the Pirates, Indians, Nationals, Orioles, Twins, and Padres. Color me skeptical.
   6. tropicofcancer Posted: January 15, 2010 at 07:45 AM (#3438173)
hahahahahhahahaha. wowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww
   7. David Cameron Posted: January 15, 2010 at 07:46 AM (#3438174)
This has to be the most optimistic project for any team I've ever seen. Given these individual projections, that's a 100+ win team easy.
   8. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 15, 2010 at 07:53 AM (#3438175)
It's not like ZiPS is known for optimism.

As for Alvarado, it's hardly his fault he's never gotten a chance and he certainly deserves one now. Pitching like he did in Albuquerque is amazing. He essentially was pitching in a context of near-major league difficulty the last 2 years.
   9. NBarnes Posted: January 15, 2010 at 07:53 AM (#3438176)
Wow. ZiPS loves it some Dodgers. Ned Coletti is the luckiest man in baseball, I think.
   10. Tripon Posted: January 15, 2010 at 07:59 AM (#3438177)
The ZiPS projection for the Phillies who Dan compares the Dodgers too for the best team in the NL seems downright normal to the Dodgers projection. Not that I'm complaining.
   11. Zoppity Zoop Posted: January 15, 2010 at 08:02 AM (#3438178)
Considering how much tropicofcancer threw a temper tantrum about ZiPS not giving Runzler a great projection based on 20 high-level innings, you would think he'd want Alvarado to have an ERA below zero for being a solid pitcher for 15 times as long as Runzler.
   12. Ken015 Posted: January 15, 2010 at 01:13 PM (#3438194)
Alvarado has signed to play in Japan next season. Never figured out why the Dodgers did not give him a shot because pitching how he did in that environment was impressive.
   13. Steve M. Posted: January 15, 2010 at 01:51 PM (#3438202)
So, Manny had a 155 OPS+ last season? Maybe I'm misremembering, but I thought I read about 100 articles last August about "Teh Decline!" and how the team couldn't wait to rid themselves of him, if only he would opt out of the last year of the deal. I'll still take the under for his 2010 projection... but apparently the dude can still rake.
   14. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: January 15, 2010 at 02:44 PM (#3438233)
It is my belief that this is a good baseballing team.
   15. metsman128 Posted: January 15, 2010 at 03:07 PM (#3438251)
Apparently McDonalds downright failure as a starter in the bigs in four starts and being relegated for the rest of his career to the bullpen more or less gives him a great projection. Weaver's great year as a reliever (whip aside) makes him get a crappy projection, and who in the hell is Josh Lindblom think he is? Child please. If we're putting this much stock in AAA stadiums, well, color me sad.

Other than that, though, I'd love to see the like, last 5 teams or whatever's left.
   16. RollingWave Posted: January 15, 2010 at 03:09 PM (#3438253)
that front 3 in the bullpen is amazing, even Torre can't screw this up... can he?
   17. flournoy Posted: January 15, 2010 at 03:12 PM (#3438256)
Mitch Jones signed a minor league contract with the Braves.
   18. Greg K Posted: January 15, 2010 at 03:19 PM (#3438258)
Weaver's great year as a reliever

A) Was that really a "great" year?
B) 2009 isn't what made Weaver get a crappy projection. Him being crappy from 2005-2008 got him a crappy projection
   19. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 15, 2010 at 03:24 PM (#3438263)
that front 3 in the bullpen is amazing, even Torre can't screw this up... can he?

Sure he can. Give them 50 appearance each before the All-Star game, which is possible with the lack of SP depth, and watch them disintegrate in Sept.
   20. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: January 15, 2010 at 03:29 PM (#3438267)
Yes, please!
   21. metsman128 Posted: January 15, 2010 at 03:32 PM (#3438269)
What's MIlton's excuse for getting a better projection? (Hurt for three years and then does as well as Weaver?) I understand Weaver was awful, and I understand the system, it's just disappointing when AAA guys who've never reached the majors project better.

I mean, I totally "get it" I just wish it wasn't that way.
   22. Greg K Posted: January 15, 2010 at 03:40 PM (#3438276)
Milton's ERA+ by year since 2005
66
90
89
N/A
104

Weaver's
97
78
71
N/A
108
As far as I can tell they both were pretty bad, missed 2008, and were useful in 2009. The difference is Milton wasn't AS bad in 2006-2007 (which I imagine is why he projects better). Of course Weaver was healthier.

EDIT: Weaver's 2007 is pretty impressive. Has anyone tied for the lead league in shutouts while sporting a 71 ERA+? That kind of seems impossible.
   23. Rays&Sox; Posted: January 15, 2010 at 04:20 PM (#3438320)
I have high hopes for Chris Withrow, but I have a hard time believing that with only 27 innings above A+ if you were to toss him into the big leagues he'd put up the same ERA+ as David Price this year.
   24. 1k5v3L Posted: January 15, 2010 at 04:35 PM (#3438349)
Jamie Hoffman is with the Yankees, iirc.
   25. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 15, 2010 at 04:35 PM (#3438350)
Alvarado did pretty well in the WBC last year, too. 4 innings in relief, 1 run (on a homer by Ramon Hernandez).
   26. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: January 15, 2010 at 04:55 PM (#3438366)
Those projections make the 2010 Dodgers look like a Steve Treder "what if" team. Dan, are you sure that you didn't set ZIPS on optimistic for this run?
   27. Eric Stephen Posted: January 15, 2010 at 05:46 PM (#3438422)
One thing the Dodgers demonstrate is that who the GM is can be overrated - the organization itself is top-notch and a testament to the work that Dan Evans and to a lesser extent, Paul DePodesta kept the team running while it recovered from the Kevin Malone era.


I sort of agree with the overall sentiment of this statement, but it seems to me like you went out of your way to avoid giving Colletti any kind of credit at all, even if his contribution was small. Don't get me wrong, a lot of his early moves were horrible, but I think he has improved over time.
   28. heyyoo Posted: January 15, 2010 at 06:34 PM (#3438486)
While clearly still the team to beat in the West, there are enough factors and question marks here that would keep me from giving them the NL West title or projecting 100 wins just yet. Yes, Manny is still Manny...but he is 38 and at an age where physical breakdown can occur at any moment. A healthy Manny is certainly a threat to meet that projection, but a healthy Manny is anything but a certainty.

Orlando Hudson is not going to be a Dodger.

Has Russell Martin turned into a latter day Jason Kendall overnight ?

And Casey Blake is 36, and could very well be in store for a somewhat steeper dropoff than a weighted projection system with aging curves can provide. He had a pretty deep 3 month trough in his production in June-July-August last year, and though he hit well when he played in September to bring his numbers back up some, he also missed half the month with a hamstring injury.

The front 3 starters in their rotation are really good pitchers, and of course Kershaw could be "The One". BUT....he has yet to reach the innings totals required of an ace, and until he does, you just don't know how he is going to navigate the injury nexus years. Of course the Dodger offseason is not over, and prices are dropping. A good innings eater is still required here.

At the end of the day, my gut tells me their offense will be at least somewhat worse than projected, but their pitching will be as strong or stronger than projected. Like I said in the opening line they are still the team to beat in the West, no doubt, but don't be surprised if the shape of their run differential changes.
   29. philly Posted: January 15, 2010 at 06:36 PM (#3438489)
Manny is projected to finish with 2139 RBI. And I honestly had no idea how that ranked all-time. Is it just me or is it strange that RBI are perceived to be one of the most important stats in baseball and yet the career RBI record has a pretty low profile?

Anyway, I had to look it up. Here are the leaders:

1. Hank Aaron+ 2297 R
2. Babe Ruth+ 2217 L
3. Cap Anson+ 2076 R
4. Barry Bonds 1996 L
5. Lou Gehrig+ 1995 L
6. Stan Musial+ 1951 L
7. Ty Cobb+ 1937 L
8. Jimmie Foxx+ 1922 R
9. Eddie Murray+ 1917 B
10. Willie Mays+ 1903 R
11. Mel Ott+ 1860 L
12. Carl Yastrzemski+ 1844 L
13. Ted Williams+ 1839 L
14. Rafael Palmeiro 1835 L
15. Dave Winfield+ 1833 R
16. Ken Griffey (39) 1829 L
17. Al Simmons+ 1827 R
18. Frank Robinson+ 1812 R
19. Manny Ramirez (37) 1788 R
20. Honus Wagner+ 1732 R
21. Alex Rodriguez (33) 1706 R
22. Frank Thomas 1704 R
23. Reggie Jackson+ 1702 L
24. Cal Ripken+ 1695 R
25. Gary Sheffield (40) 1676

2139 would place him 3rd behind Aaron and Ruth although Arod is only 82 behind. Again, there's been a lot of talk about ARod breaking the HR record, but I haven't heard any speculation about the RBI record.

ZiPS has already done the Yankees. Let's see... nope, 2207. Choker...
   30. DCW3 Posted: January 15, 2010 at 06:39 PM (#3438491)
As far as I can tell they both were pretty bad, missed 2008, and were useful in 2009. The difference is Milton wasn't AS bad in 2006-2007 (which I imagine is why he projects better). Of course Weaver was healthier.

Weaver didn't actually miss 2008--he had a 6.17 ERA at AAA. That probably doesn't help his projection any.
   31.  Hey Gurl Posted: January 15, 2010 at 06:43 PM (#3438495)
Doug Mientkiewicz*


Holy cow. I thought he retired after his season with the Yankees.

Amazing the things you miss.

Is 189 the highest ERA+ ever projected by zips? Damn...
   32. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 15, 2010 at 06:49 PM (#3438498)
Weaver didn't actually miss 2008--he had a 6.17 ERA at AAA. That probably doesn't help his projection any.

Yeah, I have his 2008 translation as 3-7, 7.60, 79.1 IP, 109 H, 21 HR, 35 BB, 42 K combined for Nashville and Buffalo.
   33. Greg K Posted: January 15, 2010 at 06:59 PM (#3438505)
Yeah, I have his 2008 translation as 3-7, 7.60, 79.1 IP, 109 H, 21 HR, 35 BB, 42 K combined for Nashville and Buffalo.

So Weaver just wishes he missed 2008
   34. molokai Posted: January 15, 2010 at 07:06 PM (#3438506)
<a href = "http://www.truebluela.com/2010/1/15/1253099/makeup-per-gm-of-current-dodger">Who acquired each Dodger per General Manager"</a>

Don't quite understand the paragraph leading into the projections. Ned has more to do with the current makeup of this team then any of the previous general managers and it is not close. This is not 2006 when these comments could be taken seriously. This is Ned's team through and through.
   35. Tripon Posted: January 15, 2010 at 07:08 PM (#3438510)
Actually, the 2006 team was more 'Ned's team since that team was built on quick FA's signings and most of the draftees on the team were either bench players or wasn't up yet. Russell Martin was the only one of the current group developed in house that received significant playing time.
   36. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: January 15, 2010 at 07:21 PM (#3438523)
Amazing, I didn't know Cap Anson was still #3 in any stat. Or that he was a player-manager for 19 years.
   37. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 15, 2010 at 08:08 PM (#3438573)
Colletti's main contributions have been things with big costs. Furcal, Hudson, Ramirez (after the trade). Throwing money at big-name players is hardly the highest order of GM ability. Colletti's had some hits, but he also dumped 100 million bucks into Schmidt, Jones, and Pierre. Blake's been good, but almost every team in baseball now would rather have Santana at this point.

The main thing Colletti actually did that was create and prescient was picking up Ethier for Bradley. How much credit should he be given, though? He tried his best to acquire players to take away Ethier's job until Ethier forced him to reconsider. If Colletti actually knew what he had in Ethier, he doesn't throw $40 million at Jones so that Pierre can start in left.

The organizational structure and most importantly, Logan White, who has had a very free hand in the draft and the minor league system, were put in place by Evans. DePodesta didn't really try to change those things.

I'm sorry, but Ned Colletti's primary skill with the Dodgers has been having an owner that was willing to subsidize his expensive mistakes. Let's put it this way - the Giants are coming out of Zito's signing with infinitely better results than the Dodgers did with Schmidt/Jones/Pierre.

. This is Ned's team through and through.

So, Kemp, Loney, Martin, Billingsley, and Broxton (among others) aren't the main part of the Dodgers long-term core? I wouldn't give Colletti credit for Kershaw, either - as noted, White's position with the Dodgers is not analogous to similar positions in other organizations; Colletti never even got to make the choice to have or not have White.
   38. zenbitz Posted: January 15, 2010 at 08:34 PM (#3438594)
Was Ned Coletti Sabeans' Lucky Rabbits' foot? I guess the timing is not quite right... Brian lost his "touch" a few years before Agent Ned left.
   39. Jarrod HypnerotomachiaPoliphili(Teddy F. Ballgame) Posted: January 15, 2010 at 08:50 PM (#3438609)
That projection pretty much puts Matt Kemp in the Hall of Fame, doesn't it?
   40. heyyoo Posted: January 15, 2010 at 10:05 PM (#3438681)
That projection pretty much puts Matt Kemp in the Hall of Fame, doesn't it?


Is this sarcasm ?
   41. JPWF13 Posted: January 15, 2010 at 10:08 PM (#3438685)
The main thing Colletti actually did that was create and prescient was picking up Ethier for Bradley. How much credit should he be given, though? He tried his best to acquire players to take away Ethier's job until Ethier forced him to reconsider. If Colletti actually knew what he had in Ethier, he doesn't throw $40 million at Jones so that Pierre can start in left.


The story at the time was that he just wanted to get rid of Bradley, never heard of Ethier, but one of the Dodger's scouts told him to ask the A's for him.
   42. JPWF13 Posted: January 15, 2010 at 10:10 PM (#3438690)
That projection pretty much puts Matt Kemp in the Hall of Fame, doesn't it?


Not unless the BBWAA finally understands the difference between a CF and a corner OF... and maybe not even then.
   43. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 15, 2010 at 10:13 PM (#3438695)
The story at the time was that he just wanted to get rid of Bradley, never heard of Ethier, but one of the Dodger's scouts told him to ask the A's for him.

I think I may have heard something like that story going around, but I'm not sure what to make of it (I don't talk with anyone that worked for either organization at the time).

I'll give Colletti the credit, however, since I'm pretty sure that he executed that trade, as that area's part of his fiefdom. I just won't give credit for Colletti knowing what he had in Ethier given his later behavior.

I'll turn the question around.

What aspect of running a major league organization has Colletti shown himself to be one of the better GMs in the league? This isn't a stathead v. non-stathead thing either - Logan White certainly isn't a saber nut.
   44. OCF Posted: January 15, 2010 at 10:13 PM (#3438696)
Where I was just eating lunch, I just caught a snippet of some ESPN talking head saying that the Dodgers would "come back to the pack" in the NL West because they haven't added anyone serious and the other teams have. Which sort of misses several points all at once.

With that said, and noting that it's unusually easy to say who the Dodger everyday starting 8 will be - who's going to be the bench? In particular, who is the 4th outfielder? Given Ramirez's age (and note that ZiPS only has him at 128 games), 4th outfielder could be a pretty important position.
   45. Tripon Posted: January 15, 2010 at 10:19 PM (#3438702)
OCF, that was Buster Olney.

The 4th Outfielder right now would probably be Jason Repko, with Xavier Paul in Triple-A waiting to be called up. They both can play CF as well as corners, so it shouldn't be that much of a problem unless Manny suffers a trip to the DL. They signed Jamey Carroll to be a platoon 2nd base and UI guy, and Nick Green on a NRI to be the back up 3B/SS/2B as well. Brad Ausmus might be back as the back up catcher, and if not career minor leaguer A.J. Ellis will probably be it.

Bullpen is pretty much set with Broxton, Sherrill, Kuo, Belisario, Troncoso, and one of McDonald, or Elbert. With the winner gaining the 5th spot in the rotation.
   46. steagles Posted: January 15, 2010 at 11:55 PM (#3438778)
i'll take the under on pretty much the entire pitching staff. the whole thing is just massively optimistic, and the kershaw projection in particular seems to run counter to everything i know about projecting young pitchers.
   47. Frisco Cali Posted: January 16, 2010 at 12:18 AM (#3438798)
and the kershaw projection in particular seems to run counter to everything i know about projecting young pitchers

which is...?

Kershaw is projected to be worse in h/9, k/9 and hr/9 than last year. He's projected to be better in bb/9. Not sure what the problem is - when a 21 yo has an excellent year, my gut says he shouldn't be projected middle of the pack the next season.
   48. 1k5v3L Posted: January 16, 2010 at 12:41 AM (#3438808)
which is...?
young pitchers will break your heart
   49.  Hey Gurl Posted: January 16, 2010 at 12:49 AM (#3438809)
I think I may have heard something like that story going around, but I'm not sure what to make of it


Well it came from Placshke, first of all...in the classic "The old scout sits at the end of the table" column
   50. Matt LeRoy Dick In Ass Posted: January 16, 2010 at 12:58 AM (#3438811)
Apparently Russell Martin didn't even have a down year.
   51. steagles Posted: January 16, 2010 at 01:06 AM (#3438812)


Kershaw is projected to be worse in h/9, k/9 and hr/9 than last year. He's projected to be better in bb/9. Not sure what the problem is - when a 21 yo has an excellent year, my gut says he shouldn't be projected middle of the pack the next season.

i think there are several disadvantages for him going into 2010 that aren't (and shouldn't, and probably can't be) taken into account in the ZiPS projections. the short leash he had in 2009 meant that he faced hitters while he was fresher, while his stuff was sharper, but it also meant that hitters didn't have a chance to adjust to him as the game went on, and his ERA is warped by that. hell, his minor league numbers are warped by it as well.


he had the benefit of a greatly reduced workload last year (and so long as we're talking about colletti's aptitude as a GM, this would seem to be a point in his favor), but that's gotta ramp up a bit this year, doesn't it? and when it does, he's gonna regress. maybe he just goes from the 2.79 ERA he had last year to the 3.06 ZiPS projects him at this year, but when he takes on a full workload, i'd bet he's a lot closer to 4 than he is to 3.
   52. BBSteve85 Posted: January 16, 2010 at 02:04 AM (#3438845)
How do you project an improved H/9 for Giancarlo Alvarado over his previous 2 seasons? Even if he has success at the Major League level, I find it very difficult to believe he's going to surrender a fewer number of hits facing Major League hitters, than AAA and AAAA hitters. Of all the projections thus far, that one sticks out like a sore thumb...
   53. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: January 16, 2010 at 02:32 AM (#3438860)
Does ZIPS know that the ~50 games Ramirez missed last year were *not* injury related? It seems like that could have a huge effect.

Alternate question: Does 1946 ZIPS project Ted Williams to play in 0 games? How does that work?
   54. rlc Posted: January 16, 2010 at 02:39 AM (#3438866)
Does 1946 ZIPS project Ted Williams to play in 0 games?

No, the 1946 edition of ZiPS projected that Ted Williams would play 142 games for the Yomiuri Giants. Luckily, Dan has refined the algorithm since then.
   55. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 16, 2010 at 02:56 AM (#3438875)
How do you project an improved H/9 for Giancarlo Alvarado over his previous 2 seasons? Even if he has success at the Major League level, I find it very difficult to believe he's going to surrender a fewer number of hits facing Major League hitters, than AAA and AAAA hitters. Of all the projections thus far, that one sticks out like a sore thumb...

Actually, what you're looking at is an Albuquerque phenomenon. Pitching in Albuquerque against AAA hitters is almost as hard as pitching against MLB pitchers, simply due to the extreme nature of the park.

Here are the weighted 3 year park factors (not the multipliers) for Isotopes Park:

Runs: 140
Hits (all types): 122
Doubles: 112
Home Runs: 142
Walks: 92
Strikeouts: 84

Isotopes Park has the largest effect on run scoring, by far, of any professional stadium. It inflates all hits by twice the magnitude of all but 3 parks.

That Alvarado's hits are projected to go down in LA is due to the drastic change in stadiums, the likes of which you don't see in any other promotion situation.

Conversely, one should continue to be <B>very</I> suspicious of Dodger AAA hitters unless they tear the league apart. Ashley's .884 and 1.129 OPSs in Albuquerque didn't become .699 and .853 by chance.
   56. Patriot87 Posted: January 16, 2010 at 03:31 AM (#3438888)
So 37 innings, 8 of which came as a starter, in Alburquerque makes Lindblom on par with Jake Peavy in some regards in the MLB? Such a small sample size and such an insane projection for absolutely no reason. There seems to be no logic in that projection whatsoever, and I'm not sure how a projection system would spit out something so kind given such a small sample size at AAA.
   57. Wes Parkers Mood (Mike Green) Posted: January 16, 2010 at 03:50 AM (#3438893)
FWIW, CHONE and Marcel are much less favourable for the Dodgers. The differences for Manny, Kerhsaw and Billingsley are large. Usually ZIPS is pessimistic for hitters, but for some reason, in the case of Dodgers, it is not so, as all the prime age hitters have as good or better ZIPS projections.

With Manny, of course, the underlying question is projection of the late career aging curves of great ballplayers. There aren't a lot of comparables, and it's not entirely clear what to make of the Barry Bonds comparison. :)
   58. Tripon Posted: January 16, 2010 at 03:51 AM (#3438896)
Patroit87, ZiPS is projecting Lindblom as a reliever.
   59. Tripon Posted: January 16, 2010 at 04:07 AM (#3438902)
My mistake, he's in the starters category.
   60. Ken015 Posted: January 16, 2010 at 04:18 AM (#3438909)
Lindblom will be in the pen but with the unsettled LA rotation it is inevitable that he will start some games and given the home park the projection seems quite possible, perhaps even likely.
   61.  Hey Gurl Posted: January 16, 2010 at 08:04 PM (#3439184)
.
   62. Danny Posted: January 16, 2010 at 08:45 PM (#3439206)
The story at the time was that he just wanted to get rid of Bradley, never heard of Ethier, but one of the Dodger's scouts told him to ask the A's for him.

BA named Ethier the Texas League MVP and put him on their top 100 prospects list. He wasn't some unknown prospect.
   63. Tripon Posted: January 17, 2010 at 12:39 AM (#3439399)
He was unknown to Colletti since he knows jack #### about baseball.
   64. jfish26101 Posted: January 17, 2010 at 06:58 PM (#3439723)
I too am surprised at the optimism shown here for the Dodgers when compared to nearly every other team we have seen projections for. Manny in particular looks surprising, he shows nearly no sign of regression in the field or at the plate despite being 38 and already showing some signs in RL. DeJesus' projection coming off a broken leg is interesting. The pitchers are a bit more surprising though especially Lindblom and Alvarado but you have answered most of that...I just don't happen to agree. ;)

...I've done most of the pitchers for all but the Braves, A's, and Angels...

What type of progress have you made on the hitters? I'm just trying to get a general idea of how quick we can expect to see the last 10 teams or so? You generally put a team out every 5-10 days it seems but, if you have the majority of the pitchers done, will that pace pick up at all?

Thanks.
   65. BBSteve85 Posted: January 17, 2010 at 08:12 PM (#3439772)
I understand the park effects, but it's only 1 season against FAR inferior talent. Putting more weight on the differences in stadiums vs the quality of competition is a mistake, IMO. Apparently the Dodgers don't believe in him as he's headed to Japan now.
   66. jfish26101 Posted: January 17, 2010 at 08:23 PM (#3439779)
Apparently the Dodgers don't believe in him as he's headed to Japan now.

Haha

Will he even put those numbers up in Japan if he does indeed go there?
   67. DCW3 Posted: January 17, 2010 at 09:22 PM (#3439811)
Manny in particular looks surprising, he shows nearly no sign of regression in the field or at the plate despite being 38 and already showing some signs in RL.

Well, that projection would still be his second-lowest OPS since 1994.
   68. jfish26101 Posted: January 17, 2010 at 09:28 PM (#3439815)
Well, that projection would still be his second-lowest OPS since 1994.

That is interesting, since I believe that is the highest OPS+ given out so far to any offensive player. I could be wrong but I think Mauer was the highest until Manny with around 148. Of course he has significantly more value being an above average C versus a below average LF but it still shows very little, if any, regression in my opinion. More surprising than the lack of regression is his projection in comparison with the rest of the league so far.
   69. Tripon Posted: January 17, 2010 at 09:54 PM (#3439829)
Those signs were 2 months of a season. I'm not sure how a system like ZiPS could possibly regress a career like Manny's for two months of average production.
   70. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: January 17, 2010 at 10:17 PM (#3439836)
Putting more weight on the differences in stadiums vs the quality of competition is a mistake, IMO.


A situation such as this is very fluid, though. You can't just automatically downgrade the park effects, especially for an environment as extreme as Albuquerque, because it doesn't feel right to you that they more than compensate for the level of play.
   71. jfish26101 Posted: January 17, 2010 at 10:23 PM (#3439838)
Dodgers fan are you?

I think there is plenty to suggest Manny will begin to regress and that isn't even the biggest surprise. As I said, the biggest surprise is ZiPS is projecting Manny to have the best bat in all of MLB so far with only 9 teams to go (Angels, Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, and Diamondbacks). I imagine Pujols' projection will surpass Manny's, Fielder perhaps, Berkman maybe...will anyone else? Do you really think he will have the 2nd or 3rd best bat in all of baseball next season at age 39?
   72. Tripon Posted: January 17, 2010 at 10:28 PM (#3439841)
And as DCW3 pointed out, the projection is still his 2nd lowest OPS since 1994. It seems ZiPS is projecting some regression already. What you want is the system to show Manny to crater, and I'm not sure how a system can really project that.

People complain when ZiPS doesn't heavily weigh a player's breakout year, yet here's you're arguing that we should heavily weigh the slump to such a point that Manny's projection should sharply trend downwards.
   73. jfish26101 Posted: January 17, 2010 at 10:56 PM (#3439861)
No, I don't want the projection to show Manny to "crater", I want it to seem realistic in terms of projecting what Manny is likely to do and consistent with the rest of the projections that have been released. He was 9th in OPS last season, he had a very good season yes but, in comparison to the rest of the projections we have seen, it stands out to me as overly optimistic. ZiPS has been pretty conservative on a lot of players (including Zobrist who was 10th in OPS in all of baseball last year I believe?), perhaps the system is being consistent by expecting Manny at 39 to hit like he is 29 (after all, it should be consistent since it treats every player essentially the same) but I'm questioning whether it is being realistic.

Chone's Manny projection = .885 OPS
Marcel's Manny projection = .897 OPS
James' Manny projection = .943 OPS
ZiPS' Manny projection = .943 OPS

Heck, ZiPS is as optimistic about Manny as Bill James whose projections are widely regarded as overly optimistic in many cases by almost everyone. :D Once again, for the last time, it isn't the lack of regression so much as his projection side by side with the rest of baseball.

Answer the question, will Manny be the 2nd best hitter in all of baseball next year? A simple yes or no will suffice, it seems ZiPS says he will be based on the way things currently stand.
   74. Tripon Posted: January 17, 2010 at 11:07 PM (#3439863)
Ben Zorbist has only been playing for 4 seasons, this is his first year as a starter. And you're wondering why a system like ZiPS would try to regress him? Yes, Manny is 39. He's old, he's slow, and he might regressed further than he has from last year. He also has almost 16 seasons worth of data that ZiPS can process to project a player. If ZiPS wants to say that Manny will post his 2nd to worst OPS since 1994, and he'd still be the 2nd best hitter in the NL, who am I to argue?

Its a projection system, not the gospel.

I don't know if he is the 2nd best hitter in baseball next year, but I'm not worrying about it.
   75. jfish26101 Posted: January 17, 2010 at 11:10 PM (#3439867)
It isn't in the NL, it's in all of baseball. Manny may have 16 seasons of data but it only uses the 4 most recent correct? I'm not suggesting Zobrist should have a better projection than Manny, after all Manny was better than Zobrist last year in a smaller sample size. It's simply an example, when I questioned the Zobrist projection as too conservative, everyone jumped all over me. Here comes Manny projected currently to be the best hitter in all of baseball and people are still acting like ZiPS is never wrong.

Thanks for avoiding the question again, I'm going to take that as a no you do not believe Manny will be the 2nd best hitter in all of baseball next year. If that is true, then wouldn't it also be true that ZiPS is being optimistic about him or at the very least too conservative on the other hitters who are more likely to put up better seasons than Manny?

Edit: And to all of those people who wrote me off because I happened to own Zobrist in a sim league, I also own Manny in that very same league. My arguments have nothing to do with owning either of them, it just seems wrong on both players.
   76. Tripon Posted: January 17, 2010 at 11:28 PM (#3439870)
Nobody is acting like ZiPS is never wrong. In every thread, somebody asks a question about a player's projection, or feels that that he's being graded too conservatively, etc.

I didn't avoid your question, I answered truthfully. I have no idea if Manny is the 2nd best hitter next year. He could be, he can be. I just don't know if he is.

This is Manny Ramirez. People have called him a hitting savant. Hitting is his Raison d'être. And you're questioning if he can reach an OPS that he has surpassed since 1994, save for one season?

Edit: In this very thread there are numerous people wondering if ZiPS is being too optimistic on the Dodgers as a team. Dave Cameron said that if ZiPS is right, the Dodgers project as a 100 win team. And you're stated that everyone treats ZiPS is never wrong?
   77. jfish26101 Posted: January 17, 2010 at 11:47 PM (#3439875)
Perhaps saying "people are acting like ZiPS is never wrong" was a bit of an exaggeration (even though some do act that way) but you are basically telling me I shouldn't question ZiPS' projection of Manny or the Dodgers as a whole at the same time. Sure Manny could be the 2nd best hitter in all of baseball next year but so could a lot of people so that is hardly a rationale you should be using.

I'd be curious what each team's projected win total is, that may be a better indication than just the Dodgers' win total by itself.

Like everyone else I disagree on, we will just see how things work out during the season but I'll be very surprised if Manny at age 39 is the 2nd or 3rd best hitter in all of baseball.
   78. Tripon Posted: January 17, 2010 at 11:58 PM (#3439876)
You're way too hung up on this. ZiPS is projecting Manny to reach an OPS that he has reached in almost all of his career. That it might make him the 2nd best hitter in baseball is besides the point.
   79. steagles Posted: January 18, 2010 at 12:16 AM (#3439879)
how about this line of inquiry: juan cruz is projected for a 95 ERA+. the dodgers have 11 relievers projected as being better than that, among them, cory wade, who had a 5.5 ERA last year, justin miller, who hasn't seen an inning above A+ nor an ERA above 3.5, and armando zerpa, who, like miller, hasn't seen an inning above A+.


if runzler's projection was on the mark, i don't know how in the hell miller and zerpa's could also be.
   80. Mike Emeigh Posted: January 18, 2010 at 01:49 AM (#3439900)
In fairness to Dan, it's hard for a projection system to handle extreme ballparks. Both Albuquerque and Chattanooga played as extreme hitters' parks a year ago, and while Inland Empire in the context of its league is a pitchers' park, the entire league is a hitters' paradise. Translating from those extremes into the pitcher-friendly environment of Dodger Stadium is a challenge.

-- MWE
   81. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 18, 2010 at 03:14 AM (#3439936)
MLB is harder than AAA, but there's no magic wall between them and context matters.

Wade was better than Cruz last year and about equal in 2008 (peripheral ERAs are more useful for relievers in an individual season than starters because of the sample sizes). Rather than bouncing back, Cruz's walk rate got even worse and his K rate lost 6 per 9. That ain't a typo.

Also, you're looking at the wrong Justin Miller. The Justin Miller that never pitched above A-ball isn't going to be 32 years old in 2010.
   82. steagles Posted: January 18, 2010 at 03:48 AM (#3439950)
MLB is harder than AAA, but there's no magic wall between them and context matters.

Wade was better than Cruz last year and about equal in 2008 (peripheral ERAs are more useful for relievers in an individual season than starters because of the sample sizes). Rather than bouncing back, Cruz's walk rate got even worse and his K rate lost 6 per 9. That ain't a typo.

Also, you're looking at the wrong Justin Miller. The Justin Miller that never pitched above A-ball isn't going to be 32 years old in 2010.


cruz had 12 Ks per 9 IP in both 2007 and 2008. he sucked last year, but considering that so did wade, and considering that cruz had a longer, better track record prior to that, i'm not seeing an 11 point gap in ERA+. if octavio dotel can still be active and effective at 35, i think it's a little early and a little drastic for a system to throw cruz on the scrap heap just yet. but that's not what i'm looking at.

i also see (in my opinion, as someone who's followed ZiPS projections for about 4 years) wildly optimistic projections for kershaw, billingsley, kuroda, lindblom, and alverado, and something just seems a bit off.


i look at daniel hudson, on the white sox, and i can't imagine how lindblom gets rated so much higher according to ERA+. i think hudson's projection passes the smell test, but lindblom's again seems more optimistic than any projection i've seen of a guy who doesn't have a track record of MLB success.

along the same lines, i'm kind of interested in seeing tommy hanson's ZiPS. if kershaw gets a 137 ERA+, hanson's gotta be right there, right?



anyway, after this, if you say it's nothing to worry about, i'll let it go (as if that's the end game), but it's not just one of these that looks off.
   83. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 18, 2010 at 04:00 AM (#3439954)
Well, as has been pointed out, a lot of Lindblom's projection is relief. There's also league difference.

Hanson's gonna be pretty high. I think both of them were in the top 10 ERA list I sent off for ESPN Mag a few weeks ago.

Cruz's FIP was surprisingly disappointing in 2008, too. He's losing the ability to keep the walks under control.
   84. Ziggy Posted: January 19, 2010 at 12:21 AM (#3440589)
will Manny be the 2nd best hitter in all of baseball next year? A simple yes or no will suffice, it seems ZiPS says he will be based on the way things currently stand.

No, probably not. But that's not the end of the story. List all of the players besides Pujols and ask me, one by one, if I think that they're going to be better than Manny? The answer to all of those questions is also: no, probably not. And there's no contradiction here. There's no particular player (save Pujols) who is likely to be better than Manny, but it is likely that someone or other will be better than he is.

Think about it this way: get a coin that is slightly weighted, so that it lands heads 51% of the time. For any given flip it's probably going to land heads. Now, see how many flips it takes for it to land tails. It won't be very many.
   85. Frisco Cali Posted: January 19, 2010 at 12:59 AM (#3440610)
Dodgers fan are you?

Welcome to Tricky Rhetorical Devices 101.
   86. heyyoo Posted: January 21, 2010 at 03:50 PM (#3443036)
Of course the Dodger offseason is not over, and prices are dropping. A good innings eater is still required here.


Sorry to quote myself. I wrote that a week ago. Since then Pineiro and Davis have signed elsewhere. Remaining options for an innings eater role are basically Garland and perhaps Washburn or Padilla. Were the Dodgers one of the teams watching Sheets throw ? Have they shown interest in Bedard ? I can't imagine them going high risk at this point. I wonder if they are just going to stand pat with the guys they have to fill out the rotation. Interesting. Dodger Divorce indeed.
   87. heyyoo Posted: January 21, 2010 at 10:32 PM (#3443441)
Dodgers choosing Padilla over Garland is kind of head scratcher.
   88. 1k5v3L Posted: January 21, 2010 at 11:27 PM (#3443517)
87: http://twitter.com/dylanohernandez
Even though the Dodgers signed Padilla at a bargain price, GM Ned Colletti said they probably could not afford another starting pitcher.

Dodgers don't seem to have enough money to afford Garland.
My guess is Garland is asking for a Pineiro/Marquis deal.
   89. Derb Posted: February 02, 2010 at 04:08 PM (#3452473)
Is Erick Threets getting a projection? He had a solid year last year in AAA, and I'm always looking for another lefty...
   90. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 02, 2010 at 04:23 PM (#3452487)
If Threets had a projection last year, he's almost certain to receive a project this year. The list of projected players from the team rundowns is never complete - after the 30 team part is done, I go through and update all the players "leftover" with 2009 projections. With more than 2000 projected players a year, it gets extremely unwieldy to spend time tracking down every last player until the "cleanup round."
   91. Derb Posted: February 02, 2010 at 10:10 PM (#3452851)
Gotcha, thanks for the clarification Dan.

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