BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2010 ZiPS Projections

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, February 01, 2010

2010 ZiPS Projections - Milwaukee Brewers

While the offense finished 3rd in the league in runs, the starting rotation doomed the 2009 rotation. Gallardo came back and pitched very well in his first full major league season, Parra took a step backwards with his command and the Suppan/Looper/Bush troika, expected to be uninspiring but adequate, all cratered to one degree or another.

Looper’s gone, replaced with the superior Randy Wolf. Bush should be better after underperforming his peripherals in 2009 but the team still has another year of Jeff Suppan at $12.5 million to go. The team will miss Mike Cameron, but Carlos Gomez, whil an awful offensive player, is even better defensively than Cameron and Escobar should be one of the best defensive shortstop in the league and contribute more offensively than some people believe. Off-hand, I’d expect the Brewers to finish 3rd-7th in runs scored and 10th-14th in runs allowed, which makes them a middle-of-the-pack team. Since they don’t play in either of the East divisions, the team’s a realistic contender for the division, assuming that the Cubs Cub things up.

Offensive Projections 

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 

Prince Fielder*          1b  26  .277  .383  .552 160 582 101 161 33  2 41 142  94 139  2  1   145 

Ryan Braun               lf  26  .295  .359  .554 154 610 109 180 38  6 36 132  54 131  9  3   138 

Rickie Weeks             2b  27  .240  .345  .419  90 334  66  80 16  4 12  43  44  89  9  2   103 

Corey Hart               rf  28  .263  .323  .453 137 501  76 132 31  5 18  86  39 105  8  4   104 

Jody Gerut*              cf  32  .267  .321  .443 115 307  45  82 17  2 11  48  25  50  3  2   101 

Jim Edmonds*             cf  40  .225  .327  .422  71 218  31  49 11  1 10  37  33  56  1  1    98 

Gregg Zaun#              c   39  .243  .345  .373  94 276  29  67 15  0  7  26  42  45  1  1    92 

Felipe Lopez#            2b  30  .266  .340  .377 143 546  69 145 28  3  9  55  60  99 10  6    91 

Adam Heether             3b  28  .243  .331  .376 127 444  58 108 25  2 10  61  52 103  3  2    88 

Jonathan Lucroy          c   24  .245  .326  .378 136 490  59 120 28  2 11  72  58  96  2  1    87 

Casey McGehee            3b  27  .263  .316  .397 126 433  55 114 23  1 11  78  35  85  0  2    89 

George Kottaras*         c   27  .237  .320  .385  86 278  31  66 15  1  8  29  34  75  0  0    87 

Joe Inglett*             2b  32  .273  .333  .375  98 341  39  93 16  5  3  38  28  51  6  4    89 

Alcides Escobar          ss  23  .279  .321  .378 146 588  91 164 27  5  7  63  34  95 25  7    84 

Craig Counsell*          2b  39  .252  .337  .353 109 309  43  78 16  3  3  33  36  47  2  2    85 

Angel Salome             c   24  .262  .309  .387  92 336  40  88 19  1  7  57  23  62  1  0    84 

Mat Gamel*               3b  24  .239  .312  .382 140 497  66 119 26  3 13  73  52 147  3  2    84 

Joe Koshansky*           1b  28  .219  .304  .394 144 503  65 110 24  2 20  94  61 183  2  2    84 

Carlos Gomez             cf  24  .250  .308  .369 136 396  63  99 19  5  6  41  28  91 23  8    79 

Caleb Gindl*             rf  21  .229  .303  .362 130 481  58 110 22  3 12  68  51 148  8  3    76 

Trent Oeltjen*           lf  27  .243  .294  .380 130 453  58 110 22  8  8  52  25  90 10  5    78 

Eric Farris              2b  24  .259  .298  .346 127 526  70 136 24  2  6  56  28  69 33  7    71 

Logan Schafer*           cf  23  .247  .302  .358  99 405  57 100 22  4  5  48  29  73  6  6    75 

Hernan Iribarren*        2b  26  .255  .306  .338 124 447  51 114 20  4  3  48  32  86 10  8    72 

Luis Cruz                2b  26  .253  .285  .361 119 415  52 105 25  1  6  45  17  49  4  4    71 

Andy Machado#            ss  29  .221  .310  .316  91 263  32  58 12  2  3  26  34  69  6  2    65 

Matt Treanor             c   34  .233  .306  .325  39 120  11  28  5  0  2  14  11  25  0  0    69 

Brendan Katin            rf  27  .211  .268  .383 128 454  55  96 24  3 16  83  29 164  1  1    71 

Brett Lawrie             2b  20  .228  .290  .354 130 474  50 108 20  5 10  63  39 118 10 11    71 

Lorenzo Cain             cf  24  .226  .285  .325 101 385  44  87 19  2  5  39  28 101  7  4    62 

Defensive Projections

Name               CThr 1b      2b      3b      ss      lf      cf      rf      

Fielder*                Av/118                                                  

Braun                                   Pr/152          Fr/57                   

Weeks                           Av/133                                          

Hart                                                                    Av/92   

Gerut*                                                  Av/103  Fr/103  Av/103  

Edmonds*                                                        Av/115          

Zaun#              Fr                                                           

Lopez#                          Av/122  Fr/122  Pr/125  Av/150          Av/150  

Heether                         Fr/104  Av/104  Fr/148  Av/104                  

Lucroy             Vg                                                           

McGehee            Pr   Av/105  Fr/146  Av/105                                  

Kottaras*          Fr                                                           

Inglett*                        Av/121  Fr/100  Pr/100  Av/100  Fr/100  Av/100  

Counsell*                       Vg/55   Vg/70   Av/75                           

Salome             Fr                                                           

Gamel*                                  Fr/146                                  

Koshansky*              Av/121                                                  

Escobar                                         Vg/109                          

Gomez                                                   Vg/118  Ex/118  Vg/118  

Gindl*                                                  Fr/123  Fr/123  Fr/123  

Oeltjen*                                                Vg/105  Pr/126  Vg/105  

Farris                          Av/132                                          

Schafer*                                                Vg/84   Av/84   Vg/84   

Iribarren*                      Av/103  Fr/103          Av/116  Fr/116          

Cruz                            Av/118  Av/118  Av/118                          

Machado#                        Av/114  Av/114  Fr/114  Av/114                  

Treanor            Fr                                                           

Katin                                                   Fr/185          Fr/185  

Lawrie                          Av/152                                          

Cain                                                    Vg/123  Av/79   Vg/123  

* - Bats Left

# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name               PO    EX    VG    AV    FR    PO          COMP 1          COMP 2          COMP 3

FielderPrince      1B   61%   29%    6%    3%    1%       HrbekKent    AikensWillie      PowellBoog

BraunRyan          LF   61%   26%    7%    4%    2%     MondesiRaul    WhiteRondell    HollidayMatt

HartCorey          RF    7%   18%   21%   27%   28% EncarnacionJuan      ByrnesEric    BrandtJackie

WeeksRickie        2B   34%   23%   20%   16%    8%       TylerBrad      HeathKelly    BellhornMark

GerutJody          CF   16%   18%   30%   24%   12%         MayDave    LandreauxKen        UnserDel

EdmondsJim         CF    0%   12%   15%   20%   53%               

LopezFelipe        2B    9%   11%   17%   28%   35%     RunnelsPete      AdamsBobby       OesterRon

McGeheeCasey       3B    1%    6%   13%   27%   52%    DavenportJim     BrooksHubie     KingBrennan

EscobarAlcides     SS    6%   14%   31%   31%   18%     FrancoJulio    FonvilleChad      JeterDerek

HeetherAdam        3B    2%    7%   16%   29%   47%     EdwardsMike     NaehringTim   GonzalezEdgar

SalomeAngel         C    3%   14%   25%   37%   21% TorrealbaYorvit     GilGeronimo     BentonButch

LucroyJonathan      C    3%   14%   25%   37%   21%     TurnerChris   ThigpenCurtis       AvlasPhil

CounsellCraig      2B    4%    6%   13%   28%   49%     VizquelOmarMaranvilleRabbit    McLemoreMark

GamelMat           3B    1%    4%   10%   24%   62%      TeahenMark   BetemitWilson       HulettTim

FarrisEric         2B    2%    4%    9%   24%   60%     LoviglioJayBloomquistWillie     DortaMelvin

KoshanskyJoe       1B    0%    1%    3%   17%   78%       TracyAndyWhittemoreReggie de la RosaTomas

OeltjenTrent       LF    0%    0%    1%    6%   92%      VarshoGary     ChapmanNate   MartinezManny

GindlCaleb         RF    0%    1%    2%    6%   91%      ReidJessie        DarrMike       NanniTito

SchaferLogan       LF    0%    0%    2%   12%   86%    WynneMarvell  WebsterAnthony      McRaeBrian

IribarrenHernan    2B    0%    1%    1%    5%   92% MorandiniMickey     MartinezTed  GuerreroWilton

KatinBrendan       RF    0%    0%    1%    4%   95%        DunnTodd    IngramDarron   SherrodJustin

LawrieBrett        2B    0%    0%    1%    5%   94%    CastilloJose  BenefieldBrian       DeanChris

CainLorenzo        CF    0%    0%    1%    4%   95%       BlasiNick     BufordDamon     ShanksJames

Name              .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB

FielderPrince         20%     59%     81%     56%     10%      0%     91%      0%

BraunRyan             43%     28%     79%     42%     21%     15%     71%      0%

HartCorey              9%      3%     15%      3%      4%      7%      5%      0%

WeeksRickie            2%     14%      7%      2%      0%      3%      0%      0%

GerutJody             15%      6%     14%      3%      0%      0%      0%      0%

EdmondsJim             2%      7%      9%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

LopezFelipe           10%     10%      1%      0%      2%      1%      0%      0%

McGeheeCasey           9%      2%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

EscobarAlcides        11%      1%      0%      0%      1%      7%      0%     27%

HeetherAdam            2%      6%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

SalomeAngel           11%      1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

LucroyJonathan         2%      2%      0%      0%      1%      0%      0%      0%

CounsellCraig          9%     16%      0%      0%      0%      3%      0%      0%

GamelMat               1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%      0%

FarrisEric             5%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%     72%

KoshanskyJoe           0%      1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      5%      0%

OeltjenTrent           1%      0%      0%      0%      0%     28%      0%      0%

GindlCaleb             1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

SchaferLogan           2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%      0%

IribarrenHernan        5%      1%      0%      0%      0%      3%      0%      0%

KatinBrendan           0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      1%      1%      0%

LawrieBrett            0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      4%      0%      0%

CainLorenzo            1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Yovani Gallardo           24   3.51  13   7  26  25   153.2  133   60  15   69  163  127 

Randy Wolf*               33   4.05  10   8  29  29   173.1  167   78  21   57  136  110 

Doug Davis*               34   4.43  10  10  30  30   176.2  182   87  19   85  133  101 

David Bush                30   4.64   8   9  28  27   153.1  161   79  22   46  107   96 

Chris Narveson*           28   4.74   6   6  33  14   104.1  107   55  14   46   83   94 

Christopher Cody*         26   4.75   9   9  24  23   127.0  137   67  17   44   78   94 

Mike Burns                31   4.86   8   9  33  18   127.2  143   69  18   36   79   92 

Braden Looper             35   5.02  10  12  32  32   181.0  205  101  29   56   99   89 

Mark Rogers               24   5.11   2   2  21  16    68.2   69   39   8   47   55   87 

Nick Green                25   5.13   7   9  26  24   142.0  162   81  22   41   79   87 

Lindsay Gulin*            33   5.15   7   9  25  22   120.2  125   69  16   71   77   87 

Manny Parra*              27   5.17   8  10  27  24   139.1  157   80  16   69  117   87 

Tim Dillard               26   5.26   6   8  36  16   125.0  148   73  14   54   55   85 

Jeff Suppan               35   5.33   8  12  30  30   170.2  206  101  24   68   86   84 

Alexandre Periard         23   5.38   5   7  18  18    82.0   95   49  10   37   41   83 

Sam Narron*               28   5.39   6   8  24  19   120.1  147   72  15   39   52   83 

John Halama*              38   5.53   5   7  15  13    86.1  102   53  12   35   42   81 

Chase Wright*             27   5.58   6  10  25  24   129.0  148   80  18   64   58   80 

Cody Scarpetta            21   5.63   6  10  28  20   100.2  103   63  12   85   79   79 

Josh Butler               25   5.64   5   8  23  22   103.2  118   65  13   59   60   79 

Jeremy Jeffress           22   5.68   4   6  17  16    69.2   68   44   8   64   63   79 

Chuck Lofgren*            24   5.80   6  10  27  22   111.2  126   72  17   62   74   77 

Amaury Rivas              24   5.81   7  12  27  23   117.2  132   76  20   66   77   77 

Chris Waters*             29   6.15   5  12  32  25   134.2  155   92  22   68   93   74 

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Trevor Hoffman            42   3.14   4   2  53   0    48.2   42   17   4   13   44  142 

Mark DiFelice             33   3.46   3   2  54   0    54.2   50   21   6   14   48  129 

La Troy Hawkins           37   3.59   3   2  60   0    57.2   55   23   5   19   41  125 

Mitch Stetter*            29   3.64   4   2  60   0    42.0   35   17   4   22   42  123 

Zach Braddock*            22   4.24   3   2  32   0    34.0   28   16   4   22   40  106 

Todd Coffey               29   4.25   4   3  75   0    78.1   81   37   9   25   63  105 

David Weathers            40   4.26   5   4  66   0    63.1   62   30   7   27   42  105 

David Riske               33   4.28   1   1  39   0    40.0   40   19   4   17   30  105 

Carlos Villanueva         26   4.35   7   6  62   7   109.2  109   53  15   40   96  103 

A.J. Murray*              28   4.38   4   3  37   4    63.2   64   31   5   30   43  102 

Jesus Colome              32   4.39   3   2  49   0    55.1   56   27   6   23   46  102 

Claudio Vargas            32   4.46   4   4  32  10    78.2   80   39  10   27   59  100 

Seth McClung              29   4.54   4   4  46   5    83.1   80   42  10   47   67   99 

Ryan Houston              30   4.94   3   4  43   0    51.0   53   28   6   27   38   90 

Wes Littleton             27   4.98   3   3  49   0    65.0   66   36   7   38   47   90 

John Axford               27   5.18   3   4  47   0    57.1   54   33   6   50   53   86 

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player             PO       TOP   MID   BOT            COMP 1            COMP 2            COMP 3

HoffmanTrevor      RP       74%   23%    4%           ReedRon       WilhelmHoyt         JonesDoug

DiFeliceMark       RP       55%   39%    7%       ReardonJeff       PeraltaJoel        MadduxMike

GallardoYovani     SP       85%   14%    1%        HardenRich        MaloneyJim         HudsonTim

HawkinsLaTroy      RP       44%   48%    8%        LampDennis          WilksTed          PowerTed

StetterMitch       RP       46%   40%   14%        RomeroJ.C.        VilloneRon        LittleJeff

WolfRandy          SP       51%   45%    4%       NeagleDenny       TananaFrank        MoyerJamie

CoffeyTodd         RP       19%   59%   22%      MeachamRusty          CrewsTim     AndersenLarry

WeathersDave       RP       34%   41%   25%       BrocailDoug          MesaJose       WilhelmHoyt

RiskeDavid         RP       20%   44%   36%      LancasterLes        MurrayDale     CrawfordSteve

VillanuevaCarlos   RP       11%   63%   26%        WheelerDan       HoytLa Marr        NelsonGene

MurrayArlington    RP       20%   51%   29%        AgostoJuan          ThobeTom        DunbarMatt

ColomeJesus        RP       14%   49%   38%        YanEsteban       MyersRodney         BruskeJim

VargasClaudio      SP       14%   54%   32%        NicholsRod        BrockChris       ManuelBarry

McClungSeth        RP        9%   51%   40%    GermanFranklyn          CookMike     PisciottaMarc

BushDavid          SP       17%   61%   23%          LimaJose       BoydOil Can        TomkoBrett

NarvesonChris      SP        3%   44%   53%       RoqueRafael    O’DonoghueJohn         EyreScott

CodyChristopher    SP       16%   58%   26%         UrbaniTom      MathesAlfred       PriestEddie

BurnsMike          SP       17%   50%   33%      SweeneyBrian        GinterMatt    DriskillTravis

HoustonRyan        RP        7%   33%   60%       CameronRyan        GwynMarcus       SolanoJulio

LittletonWes       RP        4%   41%   54%    GilfillanJason         GreenSean         MayoBlake

LooperBraden       SP        8%   46%   46%    GullicksonBill       LazorkoJack         KesterTim

RogersMark         SP       12%   37%   51%         NewellTom    DuncanCourtney         BowenRyan

GreenNick          SP        5%   47%   49%      MeadowsBrian        TowersJosh        WolcottBob

GulinLindsay       SP        6%   40%   53%        EstesShawn        ByrneTommy        McClureBob

ParraManny         SP        5%   45%   49%       RuffinBruce   ClaussenBrandon        HaywardRay

AxfordJohn         RP        3%   34%   62%        KayeJustin     BerumenAndres        BarryKevin

DillardTim         SP        0%   19%   81%    BonillaVicente       PegueroTony    CoulterDarrell

SuppanJeff         SP        3%   33%   64%         SeleAaron    FernandezJared       JarvisKevin

PeriardAlexandre   SP        6%   36%   58%      MoehlerBrian        JosephJake       DittlerJake

NarronSam          SP        4%   37%   60%       BallardJeff       ShouseBrian     GuettermanLee

HalamaJohn         SP        5%   25%   70%     MichalakChris      FlanaganMike        ReussJerry

WrightChase        SP        1%   22%   77%          DreesTom       RundlesRich       BryantShawn

ScarpettaCody      SP        1%   21%   77%      PerkinsVince    DuncanCourtney    HardwickWillie

ButlerJosh         SP        1%   23%   76%     KirkreitDaron    BuglovskyChris     SodowskyClint

JeffressJeremy     SP        3%   26%   71%        GomesWayne    DuncanCourtney        EricksJohn

LofgrenChuck       SP        1%   18%   82%        MounceTony         RootDerek        ThomasBrad

RivasAmaury        SP        0%   14%   86%    BourgeoisSteve    BuglovskyChris         ArdJohnny

Player             130 ERA+  100 ERA+    K/9 >8  BB/9 <2   HR/9
<1

HoffmanTrevor           66%       95%       54%      34%       72%

DiFeliceMark            46%       91%       45%      38%       63%

GallardoYovani          51%       95%       93%       0%       71%

HawkinsLaTroy           44%       85%        7%      13%       70%

StetterMitch            46%       81%       74%       0%       78%

WolfRandy               15%       78%       12%       3%       41%

CoffeyTodd              15%       68%       15%       5%       54%

WeathersDave            29%       66%        5%       4%       65%

RiskeDavid              20%       55%       14%       2%       54%

VillanuevaCarlos         9%       61%       41%       1%       25%

MurrayArlington         16%       58%        4%       0%       82%

ColomeJesus             14%       55%       27%       1%       57%

VargasClaudio           11%       57%        8%       3%       42%

McClungSeth              7%       48%       17%       0%       48%

BushDavid                2%       40%        1%       7%       22%

NarvesonChris            2%       37%       15%       0%       35%

CodyChristopher          2%       39%        0%       2%       35%

BurnsMike                6%       35%        2%      18%       30%

HoustonRyan              4%       33%       11%       0%       54%

LittletonWes             4%       32%        4%       0%       57%

LooperBraden             2%       22%        0%       5%       14%

RogersMark               2%       25%       22%       0%       62%

GreenNick                0%       18%        0%      12%       15%

GulinLindsay             1%       18%        3%       0%       35%

ParraManny               0%       17%       27%       0%       54%

AxfordJohn               3%       24%       59%       0%       62%

DillardTim               0%       11%        0%       0%       56%

SuppanJeff               0%       10%        0%       0%       26%

PeriardAlexandre         1%       18%        0%       0%       53%

NarronSam                0%       13%        0%       6%       38%

HalamaJohn               1%       11%        0%       2%       39%

WrightChase              0%        5%        0%       0%       23%

ScarpettaCody            0%        6%       14%       0%       45%

ButlerJosh               0%        5%        0%       0%       45%

JeffressJeremy           0%        9%       52%       0%       54%

LofgrenChuck             0%        3%        0%       0%       16%

RivasAmaury              0%        2%        1%       0%        9%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name               BA  OBP  SLG    G    AB      R      H   2B  3B   HR  RBI    BB     SO  SB  CS OPS+

FielderPrince    .263 .370 .514 2443  8805   1427   2320  452  29  565 1991  1381   2219  32  24  131

WeeksRickie      .236 .340 .400 1044  3869    732    912  166  41  129  451   491   1063 113  33   95

BraunRyan        .281 .345 .517 2003  7947   1345   2233  429  71  436 1602   682   1808 110  45  125

GomezCarlos      .244 .302 .358 1139  3343    452    817  150  42   49  343   233    793 160  58   76

HartCorey        .262 .318 .450 1166  4188    612   1097  257  41  150  657   306    885 100  45  100

Player              W     L     S   ERA      G     GS   IP      H     HR     BB     SO   ERA+

BushDavid          98   111     0  4.71    337    320 1876   1947    268    521   1300     95

SuppanJeff        157   165     0  4.75    488    472 2846   3196    378    999   1561     97

WolfRandy         165   141     0  4.20    473    468 2815   2731    356   1008   2287    104

All figures in % based on projection playing time 


Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  

Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 

many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.  

ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 

being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 

is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 

the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  

This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in

the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information

is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting

the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 

most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top

quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Indians

Mariners

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

These projections were sponsored in part by:

Dan Szymborski Posted: February 01, 2010 at 12:08 AM | 38 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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1. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: February 01, 2010 at 12:20 AM (#3451261)

Hey Dan, looks like Doug Davis is missing.

2. BobbyS Posted: February 01, 2010 at 12:26 AM (#3451262)

The Cubs will surely cub it up.

How does Weeks' batting average projection drop from last year (even if only .006), when he his well above it in the short time he did play. Is this taken from only '07, '08, and '09 leaving his '06 avg out of the equation and basically replacing it with the slightly lower but with far few at bats in '09?

The bullpen looks solid, if anybody other than Gallardo and Bush can get them a lead.

3. The Fallen Reputation of Billy Jo Robidoux Posted: February 01, 2010 at 12:34 AM (#3451264)

It would probably be worthless, but does ZIPS have a prediction for Capuano?

4. Drexl Spivey Posted: February 01, 2010 at 01:01 AM (#3451265)

That is one Cubbed up Mat Gamel projection. I thought he was supposed to be good at hitting and bad at fielding...apparently he sucks at both.

5. puck Posted: February 01, 2010 at 01:05 AM (#3451266)

Pretty good career projection for Fielder, considering his frame.

6. JoeHova Posted: February 01, 2010 at 01:17 AM (#3451269)

1,991 RBIs for Prince would be 6th all-time. A-Rod and Pujols and maybe a couple other guys (Manny, Griffey) will end up past that but that would still be an historically impressive total. I hope he can get there.

All in all, the team looks as uninspiring as I feared. Prince, Braun and Gallardo will probably have to beat those projections if the team is going to do anything (which is a lot to ask considering how good those 3 already are). I see ZiPS isn't buying McGehee's "breakout" last year or Gamel's potential. Counsell might still be their best option at 3rd, which is kind of funny.

Also, too bad DiFelice is out for the year, he's a nice story and a good pitcher.

7. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: February 01, 2010 at 01:18 AM (#3451271)

Prince Fielder est un monstre.

8. Teufel's Graveyard Posted: February 01, 2010 at 01:25 AM (#3451273)

Gamel was decent in the games he started in the majors. He was bad as a PH in the majors and when he got sent down, he just didn't perform well.

BTW, thanks Dan for these.

9. Dock Ellis on Acid

Posted: February 01, 2010 at 02:14 AM (#3451286)

I mostly came here for Harveys's opinion. I'll come back later.

10. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 01, 2010 at 02:29 AM (#3451295)

Fielder's RBI total should be 1691.

ZiPS hates Gamel because Gamel's an absolute strikeout machine (the biggest improvement from old-style MLEs to my version is that traditional MLEs overrate very high BABIP hitters).

Don't know where Davis got to - I'm not at the ZiPS Supercomputer right now.

11. JoeHova Posted: February 01, 2010 at 03:01 AM (#3451307)

Fielder's RBI total should be 1691.

Dang! Still pretty good though.

12. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: February 01, 2010 at 03:39 AM (#3451325)

That is a pretty impressive collection of arms in the bullpen.

13. GregD Posted: February 01, 2010 at 03:52 AM (#3451333)

14. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: February 01, 2010 at 05:18 AM (#3451357)

It's interesting that Prince's comparables suggest a fairly short career--Hrbek, Powell, Aikens, all of whom seem like reasonable, if somewhat-pessimistic comps, but his projected career looks quite long.

No kidding. More hits than Braun?

Seems like with all the left-handed dross, Heether has at least a shot at making the roster. Assuming McGehee wins the 3B job, I'd much rather see Heether up and Gamel starting at Nashville than vice versa.

For those who don't follow the Brewers system, Heether's a nice story. He feels like a minor league free agent-type player, but he's actually been in the Brewers organization since 2003; they drafted him out of Long Beach State, where his infield-mate was Ryan Braun's future nemesis, Troy Tulowitzki.

15. bigglou115 Posted: February 01, 2010 at 07:51 AM (#3451393)

16. Walt Davis Posted: February 01, 2010 at 09:20 AM (#3451400)

Glad to see the realistic Lopez projection. Paging Howard Megdal! :-) Would you prefer the projected SLG "heavy" 91 OPS+ and AV defense or the projected OBP heavy 94 OPS+ with FR defense? Is it really likely to be more than a handful of runs difference?

Now, who exactly was clamoring for the Corey Hart career projection?

17. meatwad Posted: February 01, 2010 at 09:27 AM (#3451401)

lots of new names in this years zips threads, hope you guys stay and enjoy the site and hopefully become an active participant in it.

18. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 01, 2010 at 02:37 PM (#3451428)

Not bad for Jimmy boy. How'd you handle Edmonds' missed year? I think I remember Silver over at BP mentioned projecting a hypothetical 2009, but if I had to guess you didn't do that here. I'm guessing your comp system just handled him better?

Previously, I went through baseball history and made a model for projecting the penalty of a missed season (obviously, bigger for pitchers than hitters).

When ZiPS sees a missing season or a season with a sudden dropoff to almost no playing time, it fills-in the low or no-play season to 38% of the previous baseline playing time for hitters and 26% of the previous baseline playing time for pitchers with an estimated penalty.

So, for Edmonds, ZiPS sees:

2006: 257/350/471 (408 PA)
2007: 252/325/403 (411 PA)
2008: 235/343/479 (401 PA)
2009: 217/301/393 (158 PA)

In essence, I had my computer problem-solve the best way to get the projection for players with missed or very partial seasons, given the baseline performance and the "return" performance and let it run for a day.

19. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 01, 2010 at 02:48 PM (#3451433)

OK, Doug Davis is there now (which makes the rotation look better, obviously).

20. awebgsu Posted: February 01, 2010 at 07:25 PM (#3451647)

Do you have a projection for Mike Cameron yet, since he signed with the Sox after they were done?

21. BobbyS Posted: February 02, 2010 at 12:25 AM (#3452149)

TO on Cameron:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/red_sox_signed_cameron/

22. Moses Taylor lost his pants to a pair of nines Posted: February 02, 2010 at 12:48 AM (#3452164)

The Cubs will surely cub it up.

Shouldn't the Brewers finish ahead of the Cubs one of these years before we get these comments? (Congrats on 05 and 06, when both teams were totally irrelevant). Now where's that smiley face key...

On paper, I don't see the Brewers competing. I don't see a lot of upside here, but at the same time I don't see a lot of downside (IOW, I don't see anyone that seems likely to significantly over or underpeform their projections). The Cubs, OTOH, have a lot bigger range(although I tend to lean towards the pessimistic side, considering age and injury history). I'm slightly underwhelmed by the Cardinals, but they're easily the class of the division.

23. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: February 02, 2010 at 01:03 AM (#3452177)

This is the definition of a top heavy club, and that wasn't a joke about Prince Fielder!

A couple of good role player seasons, with a couple of bounceback seasons from Suppan and Parra might actually see them take the Central.

24. Harveys Wallbangers

Posted: February 02, 2010 at 04:15 AM (#3452307)

What's disappointing about the Brewers is that GM Doug Melvin cannot seem to commit to a strategy. He originally focused on putting as many bats as possible into the lineup but the 2007 season collapsed because they didn't have a good read on Braun's defense, Estrada was a cancer and Yost did a horrific job with the pitching staff.

So Doug decides to go with defense in 2008 and it pays off. But what Doug failed to recognize some great contributions from his bench and he assigned WAY TOO MUCH credit to his catcher for the pitching staff performance.

Doug goes back to the slugging approach but doesn't go 'all in' so finishing 3rd in runs scored isn't enough to offset the collapse of the pitching staff. And Milwaukee got ridiculously LUCKY in 2009 as there ain't no way on God's green earth Casey, Felipe or Craig have years like that ever again.

So now it's back to pitching and defense with Prince and Ryan to provide the offense.

I will just point out the Brewers last year finished 2 games under .500 with only one starter with an ERA+ of over 100. The rest were, well, rather disgusting. So three guys of this caliber TRIPLES the population. That's progress.

I find the Gamel projection reacting very seriously to the 2009 season when Mat saw his strikeout rate spike through the roof between Triple A and the majors. I think with some time under his belt Mat will calm himself down at the plate.

Having Escobar and Gomez up the middle looks to be a great fit with the pitching staff. Real potential for the staff to be more at ease letting the opposition take their cuts knowing guys out there will track it down.

I like that this is a decidely young team with some guys with a chip on their shoulder. Corey Hart claims to not care that fans are getting impatient with him swinging at sliders in the dirt. Gomez wants to show the Twins they made a mistake. Gamel wants to keep third base to himself. Alcides is determined to snarf up every ground ball on the infield. Prince will be starting his salary bonaza drive. Ryan Braun just hates pitchers.

If Macha can hold the bullpen together and I can keep from biting off my left big toe to ease the pain from watching Doug Davis on the mound I think Milwaukee will exceed expectations.

And you have to love Mose assuming that the post was by a Brewer fan. As if nobody else on BBTF takes shots at the Cubs..........

25. Josh1 Posted: February 02, 2010 at 04:30 AM (#3452313)

This projection is for an entirely different team from last year. 2009 ran out 5 excellent hitters and generally two black holes at any time. The projection has two excellent hitters, both worse than last year, and otherwise ordinary to poor hitters. On the plus side, no regular seems likely to quite reach the Mariana Trench-like depths of Kendall and to a lesser extent Hardy. Overall, however, the offense looks below hopes and a big step down.

On the pitching side, Gallardo was pretty good last year with promising peripherals, and all the other starters were atrocious. The projections have 4 solid guys and several other options better than most teams' back-of-rotation filler and also better than any 2009 starter outside of Gallardo. I suppose Parra also still has a small chance to break out. The pen looks good. If anything, the pitching according to the projections could easily be above average this year, though I'm not filled with confidence.

26. BobbyS Posted: February 02, 2010 at 07:02 AM (#3452371)

"The Cubs will surely cub it up."

Shouldn't the Brewers finish ahead of the Cubs one of these years before we get these comments? (Congrats on 05 and 06, when both teams were totally irrelevant). Now where's that smiley face key...

Those comments have nothing to do with the Brewers previous performance...

27. DCW3 Posted: February 02, 2010 at 09:06 AM (#3452386)

It's got to be pretty difficult to put up a 127 OPS+ in almost 400 PAs and end up with a ZiPS projection of an 89 OPS+.

28. kwarren Posted: February 02, 2010 at 07:45 PM (#3452639)

It's got to be pretty difficult to put up a 127 OPS+ in almost 400 PAs and end up with a ZiPS projection of an 89 OPS+.

Well Robbie Alomar went from 150 to 89 in 2002. I'm sure McGefee will have no problem going from 127 to 89, especially based on his past history.

29. The Polish Sausage Racer Posted: February 02, 2010 at 11:00 PM (#3452902)

OTOH, it's entirely possible McGehee was spending more time working on his catching during his past history, and the move to 3rd let him concentrate more on his hitting. Just throwing the idea out there, because he was night & day when he switched positions. Post hoc etc. cautions assumed.

30. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 03, 2010 at 06:03 AM (#3453148)

Zach Braddock added.

31. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: February 03, 2010 at 06:37 AM (#3453154)

Can you do a hitting projection for Braddock? He's 1-1 in his career with a grand slam.

32. Sammy's Corked Whine Posted: February 03, 2010 at 09:00 PM (#3453517)

Maybe this really ought to be renamed the ZIPS Blog. As time has gone on, Dan's contributions via ZIPS have grown and grown, as his time to evaluate transactions has shrunk and shrunk. I'm as grateful for him and his work as ever, but given that there's no guarantee any particular transaction will be evaluated here, much less in a timely fashion, the title of the blog doesn't seem to apply so much anymore.

If there is to be a Transaction Oracle, maybe Dan could delegate it to a trusted peer. As much as I miss the timely looks at transaction, I'm not about to suggest he take his focus away from ZIPS. Maybe him getting a partner here is the answer?

This shouldn't be read as a complaint. Just some thoughts and observations.

33. i'm not STEAGLES and you shouldn't be either Posted: February 03, 2010 at 09:08 PM (#3453528)

Can you do a hitting projection for Braddock? He's 1-1 in his career with a grand slam

did he get picked off first base there, too?

34. Ken015 Posted: February 17, 2010 at 02:03 AM (#3461684)

Why is Felipe Lopez 2010 projection worse than his 2009 projection when he improved last season? It doesn't seem to make sense.

35. Ken015 Posted: February 18, 2010 at 01:14 PM (#3462573)

Thanks I knew there was an explanation that would make some sense. Never I looked at his BABIP numbers.

36. sinicalypse Posted: March 27, 2010 at 12:05 AM (#3486982)

personally, i look forward to seeing as many of joe koshansky's 94 RBIs as i can. it'll make the hourlong trek north all the more worthwhile, as i tell my future grandkids about one of those underappreciated players lost in the remetee braun and son fielder shuffle, the quietest 90 RBI in brewtown, those off of the mighty joe koshansky's bat.

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2010 ZiPS Projections - Milwaukee Brewers

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