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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, February 01, 2010

2010 ZiPS Projections - Milwaukee Brewers

While the offense finished 3rd in the league in runs, the starting rotation doomed the 2009 rotation.  Gallardo came back and pitched very well in his first full major league season, Parra took a step backwards with his command and the Suppan/Looper/Bush troika, expected to be uninspiring but adequate, all cratered to one degree or another. 

Looper’s gone, replaced with the superior Randy Wolf.  Bush should be better after underperforming his peripherals in 2009 but the team still has another year of Jeff Suppan at $12.5 million to go.  The team will miss Mike Cameron, but Carlos Gomez, whil an awful offensive player, is even better defensively than Cameron and Escobar should be one of the best defensive shortstop in the league and contribute more offensively than some people believe.  Off-hand, I’d expect the Brewers to finish 3rd-7th in runs scored and 10th-14th in runs allowed, which makes them a middle-of-the-pack team.  Since they don’t play in either of the East divisions, the team’s a realistic contender for the division, assuming that the Cubs Cub things up.

Offensive Projections

Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Prince Fielder*      1b 26 .277 .383 .552 160 582 101 161 33 2 41 142 94 139 2 1   145
Ryan Braun           lf 26 .295 .359 .554 154 610 109 180 38 6 36 132 54 131 9 3   138
Rickie Weeks         2b 27 .240 .345 .419 90 334 66 80 16 4 12 43 44 89 9 2   103
Corey Hart           rf 28 .263 .323 .453 137 501 76 132 31 5 18 86 39 105 8 4   104
Jody Gerut*          cf 32 .267 .321 .443 115 307 45 82 17 2 11 48 25 50 3 2   101
Jim Edmonds*        cf 40 .225 .327 .422 71 218 31 49 11 1 10 37 33 56 1 1   98
Gregg Zaun#          c   39 .243 .345 .373 94 276 29 67 15 0 7 26 42 45 1 1   92
Felipe Lopez#        2b 30 .266 .340 .377 143 546 69 145 28 3 9 55 60 99 10 6   91
Adam Heether         3b 28 .243 .331 .376 127 444 58 108 25 2 10 61 52 103 3 2   88
Jonathan Lucroy       c   24 .245 .326 .378 136 490 59 120 28 2 11 72 58 96 2 1   87
Casey McGehee         3b 27 .263 .316 .397 126 433 55 114 23 1 11 78 35 85 0 2   89
George Kottaras*      c   27 .237 .320 .385 86 278 31 66 15 1 8 29 34 75 0 0   87
Joe Inglett*        2b 32 .273 .333 .375 98 341 39 93 16 5 3 38 28 51 6 4   89
Alcides Escobar       ss 23 .279 .321 .378 146 588 91 164 27 5 7 63 34 95 25 7   84
Craig Counsell*      2b 39 .252 .337 .353 109 309 43 78 16 3 3 33 36 47 2 2   85
Angel Salome         c   24 .262 .309 .387 92 336 40 88 19 1 7 57 23 62 1 0   84
Mat Gamel*          3b 24 .239 .312 .382 140 497 66 119 26 3 13 73 52 147 3 2   84
Joe Koshansky*        1b 28 .219 .304 .394 144 503 65 110 24 2 20 94 61 183 2 2   84
Carlos Gomez         cf 24 .250 .308 .369 136 396 63 99 19 5 6 41 28 91 23 8   79
Caleb Gindl*        rf 21 .229 .303 .362 130 481 58 110 22 3 12 68 51 148 8 3   76
Trent Oeltjen*        lf 27 .243 .294 .380 130 453 58 110 22 8 8 52 25 90 10 5   78
Eric Farris         2b 24 .259 .298 .346 127 526 70 136 24 2 6 56 28 69 33 7   71
Logan Schafer*        cf 23 .247 .302 .358 99 405 57 100 22 4 5 48 29 73 6 6   75
Hernan Iribarren*      2b 26 .255 .306 .338 124 447 51 114 20 4 3 48 32 86 10 8   72
Luis Cruz           2b 26 .253 .285 .361 119 415 52 105 25 1 6 45 17 49 4 4   71
Andy Machado#        ss 29 .221 .310 .316 91 263 32 58 12 2 3 26 34 69 6 2   65
Matt Treanor         c   34 .233 .306 .325 39 120 11 28 5 0 2 14 11 25 0 0   69
Brendan Katin         rf 27 .211 .268 .383 128 454 55 96 24 3 16 83 29 164 1 1   71
Brett Lawrie         2b 20 .228 .290 .354 130 474 50 108 20 5 10 63 39 118 10 11   71
Lorenzo Cain         cf 24 .226 .285 .325 101 385 44 87 19 2 5 39 28 101 7 4   62

Defensive Projections

Name           CThr 1b     2b     3b     ss     lf     cf     rf    
Fielder*          Av/118                                
Braun                       Pr/152       Fr/57            
Weeks                   Av/133                            
Hart                                             Av/92  
Gerut*                                  Av/103 Fr/103 Av/103
Edmonds*                                      Av/115      
Zaun#          Fr                                      
Lopez#                  Av/122 Fr/122 Pr/125 Av/150       Av/150
Heether                 Fr/104 Av/104 Fr/148 Av/104            
Lucroy         Vg                                      
McGehee         Pr   Av/105 Fr/146 Av/105                      
Kottaras*      Fr                                      
Inglett*                Av/121 Fr/100 Pr/100 Av/100 Fr/100 Av/100
Counsell*                Vg/55   Vg/70   Av/75                  
Salome         Fr                                      
Gamel*                      Fr/146                      
Koshansky*          Av/121                                
Escobar                           Vg/109                
Gomez                                   Vg/118 Ex/118 Vg/118
Gindl*                                  Fr/123 Fr/123 Fr/123
Oeltjen*                                Vg/105 Pr/126 Vg/105
Farris                 Av/132                            
Schafer*                                Vg/84   Av/84   Vg/84  
Iribarren*              Av/103 Fr/103       Av/116 Fr/116      
Cruz                   Av/118 Av/118 Av/118                
Machado#                Av/114 Av/114 Fr/114 Av/114            
Treanor         Fr                                      
Katin                                   Fr/185       Fr/185
Lawrie                 Av/152                            
Cain                                   Vg/123 Av/79   Vg/123

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name           PO   EX   VG   AV   FR   PO       COMP 1       COMP 2       COMP 3
FielderPrince     1B   61%  29%  6%  3%  1%    HrbekKent   AikensWillie     PowellBoog
BraunRyan       LF   61%  26%  7%  4%  2%    MondesiRaul   WhiteRondell   HollidayMatt
HartCorey       RF   7%  18%  21%  27%  28% EncarnacionJuan     ByrnesEric   BrandtJackie
WeeksRickie     2B   34%  23%  20%  16%  8%    TylerBrad     HeathKelly   BellhornMark
GerutJody       CF   16%  18%  30%  24%  12%      MayDave   LandreauxKen     UnserDel
EdmondsJim       CF   0%  12%  15%  20%  53%         
LopezFelipe     2B   9%  11%  17%  28%  35%    RunnelsPete     AdamsBobby     OesterRon
McGeheeCasey     3B   1%  6%  13%  27%  52%  DavenportJim   BrooksHubie   KingBrennan
EscobarAlcides   SS   6%  14%  31%  31%  18%    FrancoJulio   FonvilleChad     JeterDerek
HeetherAdam     3B   2%  7%  16%  29%  47%    EdwardsMike   NaehringTim   GonzalezEdgar
SalomeAngel       C   3%  14%  25%  37%  21% TorrealbaYorvit   GilGeronimo   BentonButch
LucroyJonathan     C   3%  14%  25%  37%  21%    TurnerChris   ThigpenCurtis     AvlasPhil
CounsellCraig     2B   4%  6%  13%  28%  49%    VizquelOmarMaranvilleRabbit   McLemoreMark
GamelMat       3B   1%  4%  10%  24%  62%    TeahenMark   BetemitWilson     HulettTim
FarrisEric       2B   2%  4%  9%  24%  60%    LoviglioJayBloomquistWillie   DortaMelvin
KoshanskyJoe     1B   0%  1%  3%  17%  78%    TracyAndyWhittemoreReggie de la RosaTomas
OeltjenTrent     LF   0%  0%  1%  6%  92%    VarshoGary   ChapmanNate   MartinezManny
GindlCaleb       RF   0%  1%  2%  6%  91%    ReidJessie     DarrMike     NanniTito
SchaferLogan     LF   0%  0%  2%  12%  86%  WynneMarvell WebsterAnthony     McRaeBrian
IribarrenHernan   2B   0%  1%  1%  5%  92% MorandiniMickey   MartinezTed GuerreroWilton
KatinBrendan     RF   0%  0%  1%  4%  95%      DunnTodd   IngramDarron   SherrodJustin
LawrieBrett     2B   0%  0%  1%  5%  94%  CastilloJose BenefieldBrian     DeanChris
CainLorenzo     CF   0%  0%  1%  4%  95%    BlasiNick   BufordDamon   ShanksJames

Name         .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB
FielderPrince       20%    59%    81%    56%    10%    0%    91%    0%
BraunRyan         43%    28%    79%    42%    21%    15%    71%    0%
HartCorey         9%    3%    15%    3%    4%    7%    5%    0%
WeeksRickie         2%    14%    7%    2%    0%    3%    0%    0%
GerutJody         15%    6%    14%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%
EdmondsJim         2%    7%    9%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
LopezFelipe       10%    10%    1%    0%    2%    1%    0%    0%
McGeheeCasey       9%    2%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
EscobarAlcides     11%    1%    0%    0%    1%    7%    0%    27%
HeetherAdam         2%    6%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
SalomeAngel       11%    1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
LucroyJonathan       2%    2%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%    0%
CounsellCraig       9%    16%    0%    0%    0%    3%    0%    0%
GamelMat           1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
FarrisEric         5%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    72%
KoshanskyJoe       0%    1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    5%    0%
OeltjenTrent       1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    28%    0%    0%
GindlCaleb         1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
SchaferLogan       2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
IribarrenHernan     5%    1%    0%    0%    0%    3%    0%    0%
KatinBrendan       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    1%    1%    0%
LawrieBrett         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    4%    0%    0%
CainLorenzo         1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Yovani Gallardo       24   3.51 13   7 26 25   153.2 133   60 15   69 163 127
Randy Wolf*          33   4.05 10   8 29 29   173.1 167   78 21   57 136 110
Doug Davis*          34   4.43 10 10 30 30   176.2 182   87 19   85 133 101
David Bush           30   4.64   8   9 28 27   153.1 161   79 22   46 107   96
Chris Narveson*        28   4.74   6   6 33 14   104.1 107   55 14   46   83   94
Christopher Cody*      26   4.75   9   9 24 23   127.0 137   67 17   44   78   94
Mike Burns           31   4.86   8   9 33 18   127.2 143   69 18   36   79   92
Braden Looper         35   5.02 10 12 32 32   181.0 205 101 29   56   99   89
Mark Rogers           24   5.11   2   2 21 16   68.2   69   39   8   47   55   87
Nick Green           25   5.13   7   9 26 24   142.0 162   81 22   41   79   87
Lindsay Gulin*        33   5.15   7   9 25 22   120.2 125   69 16   71   77   87
Manny Parra*          27   5.17   8 10 27 24   139.1 157   80 16   69 117   87
Tim Dillard           26   5.26   6   8 36 16   125.0 148   73 14   54   55   85
Jeff Suppan           35   5.33   8 12 30 30   170.2 206 101 24   68   86   84
Alexandre Periard       23   5.38   5   7 18 18   82.0   95   49 10   37   41   83
Sam Narron*          28   5.39   6   8 24 19   120.1 147   72 15   39   52   83
John Halama*          38   5.53   5   7 15 13   86.1 102   53 12   35   42   81
Chase Wright*        27   5.58   6 10 25 24   129.0 148   80 18   64   58   80
Cody Scarpetta         21   5.63   6 10 28 20   100.2 103   63 12   85   79   79
Josh Butler           25   5.64   5   8 23 22   103.2 118   65 13   59   60   79
Jeremy Jeffress       22   5.68   4   6 17 16   69.2   68   44   8   64   63   79
Chuck Lofgren*        24   5.80   6 10 27 22   111.2 126   72 17   62   74   77
Amaury Rivas         24   5.81   7 12 27 23   117.2 132   76 20   66   77   77
Chris Waters*        29   6.15   5 12 32 25   134.2 155   92 22   68   93   74

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Trevor Hoffman         42   3.14   4   2 53   0   48.2   42   17   4   13   44 142
Mark DiFelice         33   3.46   3   2 54   0   54.2   50   21   6   14   48 129
La Troy Hawkins       37   3.59   3   2 60   0   57.2   55   23   5   19   41 125
Mitch Stetter*        29   3.64   4   2 60   0   42.0   35   17   4   22   42 123
Zach Braddock*        22   4.24   3   2 32   0   34.0   28   16   4   22   40 106
Todd Coffey           29   4.25   4   3 75   0   78.1   81   37   9   25   63 105
David Weathers         40   4.26   5   4 66   0   63.1   62   30   7   27   42 105
David Riske           33   4.28   1   1 39   0   40.0   40   19   4   17   30 105
Carlos Villanueva       26   4.35   7   6 62   7   109.2 109   53 15   40   96 103
A.J. Murray*          28   4.38   4   3 37   4   63.2   64   31   5   30   43 102
Jesus Colome         32   4.39   3   2 49   0   55.1   56   27   6   23   46 102
Claudio Vargas         32   4.46   4   4 32 10   78.2   80   39 10   27   59 100
Seth McClung         29   4.54   4   4 46   5   83.1   80   42 10   47   67   99
Ryan Houston         30   4.94   3   4 43   0   51.0   53   28   6   27   38   90
Wes Littleton         27   4.98   3   3 49   0   65.0   66   36   7   38   47   90
John Axford           27   5.18   3   4 47   0   57.1   54   33   6   50   53   86

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player         PO     TOP   MID   BOT         COMP 1         COMP 2         COMP 3
HoffmanTrevor     RP     74%  23%  4%        ReedRon     WilhelmHoyt       JonesDoug
DiFeliceMark     RP     55%  39%  7%    ReardonJeff     PeraltaJoel     MadduxMike
GallardoYovani   SP     85%  14%  1%      HardenRich     MaloneyJim       HudsonTim
HawkinsLaTroy     RP     44%  48%  8%      LampDennis       WilksTed       PowerTed
StetterMitch     RP     46%  40%  14%      RomeroJ.C.      VilloneRon     LittleJeff
WolfRandy       SP     51%  45%  4%    NeagleDenny     TananaFrank     MoyerJamie
CoffeyTodd       RP     19%  59%  22%    MeachamRusty       CrewsTim   AndersenLarry
WeathersDave     RP     34%  41%  25%    BrocailDoug       MesaJose     WilhelmHoyt
RiskeDavid       RP     20%  44%  36%    LancasterLes     MurrayDale   CrawfordSteve
VillanuevaCarlos   RP     11%  63%  26%      WheelerDan     HoytLa Marr     NelsonGene
MurrayArlington   RP     20%  51%  29%      AgostoJuan       ThobeTom     DunbarMatt
ColomeJesus     RP     14%  49%  38%      YanEsteban     MyersRodney       BruskeJim
VargasClaudio     SP     14%  54%  32%      NicholsRod     BrockChris     ManuelBarry
McClungSeth     RP     9%  51%  40%  GermanFranklyn       CookMike   PisciottaMarc
BushDavid       SP     17%  61%  23%      LimaJose     BoydOil Can     TomkoBrett
NarvesonChris     SP     3%  44%  53%    RoqueRafael   O’DonoghueJohn       EyreScott
CodyChristopher   SP     16%  58%  26%      UrbaniTom     MathesAlfred     PriestEddie
BurnsMike       SP     17%  50%  33%    SweeneyBrian     GinterMatt   DriskillTravis
HoustonRyan     RP     7%  33%  60%    CameronRyan     GwynMarcus     SolanoJulio
LittletonWes     RP     4%  41%  54%  GilfillanJason       GreenSean       MayoBlake
LooperBraden     SP     8%  46%  46%  GullicksonBill     LazorkoJack       KesterTim
RogersMark       SP     12%  37%  51%      NewellTom   DuncanCourtney       BowenRyan
GreenNick       SP     5%  47%  49%    MeadowsBrian     TowersJosh     WolcottBob
GulinLindsay     SP     6%  40%  53%      EstesShawn     ByrneTommy     McClureBob
ParraManny       SP     5%  45%  49%    RuffinBruce   ClaussenBrandon     HaywardRay
AxfordJohn       RP     3%  34%  62%      KayeJustin   BerumenAndres     BarryKevin
DillardTim       SP     0%  19%  81%  BonillaVicente     PegueroTony   CoulterDarrell
SuppanJeff       SP     3%  33%  64%      SeleAaron   FernandezJared     JarvisKevin
PeriardAlexandre   SP     6%  36%  58%    MoehlerBrian     JosephJake     DittlerJake
NarronSam       SP     4%  37%  60%    BallardJeff     ShouseBrian   GuettermanLee
HalamaJohn       SP     5%  25%  70%    MichalakChris     FlanaganMike     ReussJerry
WrightChase     SP     1%  22%  77%      DreesTom     RundlesRich     BryantShawn
ScarpettaCody     SP     1%  21%  77%    PerkinsVince   DuncanCourtney   HardwickWillie
ButlerJosh       SP     1%  23%  76%    KirkreitDaron   BuglovskyChris   SodowskyClint
JeffressJeremy   SP     3%  26%  71%      GomesWayne   DuncanCourtney     EricksJohn
LofgrenChuck     SP     1%  18%  82%      MounceTony       RootDerek     ThomasBrad
RivasAmaury     SP     0%  14%  86%  BourgeoisSteve   BuglovskyChris       ArdJohnny

Player         130 ERA+  100 ERA+  K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9

<1
HoffmanTrevor 66% 95% 54% 34% 72%
DiFeliceMark 46% 91% 45% 38% 63%
GallardoYovani 51% 95% 93% 0% 71%
HawkinsLaTroy 44% 85% 7% 13% 70%
StetterMitch 46% 81% 74% 0% 78%
WolfRandy 15% 78% 12% 3% 41%
CoffeyTodd 15% 68% 15% 5% 54%
WeathersDave 29% 66% 5% 4% 65%
RiskeDavid 20% 55% 14% 2% 54%
VillanuevaCarlos 9% 61% 41% 1% 25%
MurrayArlington 16% 58% 4% 0% 82%
ColomeJesus 14% 55% 27% 1% 57%
VargasClaudio 11% 57% 8% 3% 42%
McClungSeth 7% 48% 17% 0% 48%
BushDavid 2% 40% 1% 7% 22%
NarvesonChris 2% 37% 15% 0% 35%
CodyChristopher 2% 39% 0% 2% 35%
BurnsMike 6% 35% 2% 18% 30%
HoustonRyan 4% 33% 11% 0% 54%
LittletonWes 4% 32% 4% 0% 57%
LooperBraden 2% 22% 0% 5% 14%
RogersMark 2% 25% 22% 0% 62%
GreenNick 0% 18% 0% 12% 15%
GulinLindsay 1% 18% 3% 0% 35%
ParraManny 0% 17% 27% 0% 54%
AxfordJohn 3% 24% 59% 0% 62%
DillardTim 0% 11% 0% 0% 56%
SuppanJeff 0% 10% 0% 0% 26%
PeriardAlexandre 1% 18% 0% 0% 53%
NarronSam 0% 13% 0% 6% 38%
HalamaJohn 1% 11% 0% 2% 39%
WrightChase 0% 5% 0% 0% 23%
ScarpettaCody 0% 6% 14% 0% 45%
ButlerJosh 0% 5% 0% 0% 45%
JeffressJeremy 0% 9% 52% 0% 54%
LofgrenChuck 0% 3% 0% 0% 16%
RivasAmaury 0% 2% 1% 0% 9%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name           BA OBP SLG   G   AB     R     H   2B 3B   HR RBI   BB   SO SB CS OPS+
FielderPrince   .263 .370 .514 2443 8805   1427   2320 452 29 565 1991 1381   2219 32 24 131
WeeksRickie     .236 .340 .400 1044 3869   732   912 166 41 129 451   491   1063 113 33   95
BraunRyan     .281 .345 .517 2003 7947   1345   2233 429 71 436 1602   682   1808 110 45 125
GomezCarlos     .244 .302 .358 1139 3343   452   817 150 42   49 343   233   793 160 58   76
HartCorey     .262 .318 .450 1166 4188   612   1097 257 41 150 657   306   885 100 45 100

Player         W   L   S   ERA     G   GS   IP     H   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
BushDavid       98   111   0 4.71   337   320 1876   1947   268   521   1300   95
SuppanJeff     157   165   0 4.75   488   472 2846   3196   378   999   1561   97
WolfRandy       165   141   0 4.20   473   468 2815   2731   356   1008   2287   104

All figures in % based on projection playing time

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

 

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Indians

Mariners

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees




These projections were sponsored in part by:

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Dan Szymborski Posted: February 01, 2010 at 12:08 AM | 38 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: February 01, 2010 at 12:20 AM (#3451261)
Hey Dan, looks like Doug Davis is missing.
   2. BobbyS Posted: February 01, 2010 at 12:26 AM (#3451262)
The Cubs will surely cub it up.

How does Weeks' batting average projection drop from last year (even if only .006), when he his well above it in the short time he did play. Is this taken from only '07, '08, and '09 leaving his '06 avg out of the equation and basically replacing it with the slightly lower but with far few at bats in '09?

The bullpen looks solid, if anybody other than Gallardo and Bush can get them a lead.
   3. The Fallen Reputation of Billy Jo Robidoux Posted: February 01, 2010 at 12:34 AM (#3451264)
It would probably be worthless, but does ZIPS have a prediction for Capuano?
   4. Drexl Spivey Posted: February 01, 2010 at 01:01 AM (#3451265)
That is one Cubbed up Mat Gamel projection. I thought he was supposed to be good at hitting and bad at fielding...apparently he sucks at both.
   5. puck Posted: February 01, 2010 at 01:05 AM (#3451266)
Pretty good career projection for Fielder, considering his frame.
   6. JoeHova Posted: February 01, 2010 at 01:17 AM (#3451269)
1,991 RBIs for Prince would be 6th all-time. A-Rod and Pujols and maybe a couple other guys (Manny, Griffey) will end up past that but that would still be an historically impressive total. I hope he can get there.

All in all, the team looks as uninspiring as I feared. Prince, Braun and Gallardo will probably have to beat those projections if the team is going to do anything (which is a lot to ask considering how good those 3 already are). I see ZiPS isn't buying McGehee's "breakout" last year or Gamel's potential. Counsell might still be their best option at 3rd, which is kind of funny.

Also, too bad DiFelice is out for the year, he's a nice story and a good pitcher.
   7. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: February 01, 2010 at 01:18 AM (#3451271)
Prince Fielder est un monstre.
   8. caprules Posted: February 01, 2010 at 01:25 AM (#3451273)
Gamel was decent in the games he started in the majors. He was bad as a PH in the majors and when he got sent down, he just didn't perform well.

BTW, thanks Dan for these.
   9. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: February 01, 2010 at 02:14 AM (#3451286)
I mostly came here for Harveys's opinion. I'll come back later.
   10. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 01, 2010 at 02:29 AM (#3451295)
Fielder's RBI total should be 1691.

ZiPS hates Gamel because Gamel's an absolute strikeout machine (the biggest improvement from old-style MLEs to my version is that traditional MLEs overrate very high BABIP hitters).

Don't know where Davis got to - I'm not at the ZiPS Supercomputer right now.
   11. JoeHova Posted: February 01, 2010 at 03:01 AM (#3451307)
Fielder's RBI total should be 1691.

Dang! Still pretty good though.
   12. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: February 01, 2010 at 03:39 AM (#3451325)
That is a pretty impressive collection of arms in the bullpen.
   13. GregD Posted: February 01, 2010 at 03:52 AM (#3451333)
It's interesting that Prince's comparables suggest a fairly short career--Hrbek, Powell, Aikens, all of whom seem like reasonable, if somewhat-pessimistic comps, but his projected career looks quite long.
   14. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: February 01, 2010 at 05:18 AM (#3451357)
It's interesting that Prince's comparables suggest a fairly short career--Hrbek, Powell, Aikens, all of whom seem like reasonable, if somewhat-pessimistic comps, but his projected career looks quite long.

No kidding. More hits than Braun?

Seems like with all the left-handed dross, Heether has at least a shot at making the roster. Assuming McGehee wins the 3B job, I'd much rather see Heether up and Gamel starting at Nashville than vice versa.

For those who don't follow the Brewers system, Heether's a nice story. He feels like a minor league free agent-type player, but he's actually been in the Brewers organization since 2003; they drafted him out of Long Beach State, where his infield-mate was Ryan Braun's future nemesis, Troy Tulowitzki.
   15. bigglou115 Posted: February 01, 2010 at 07:51 AM (#3451393)
Not bad for Jimmy boy. How'd you handle Edmonds' missed year? I think I remember Silver over at BP mentioned projecting a hypothetical 2009, but if I had to guess you didn't do that here. I'm guessing your comp system just handled him better?
   16. Walt Davis Posted: February 01, 2010 at 09:20 AM (#3451400)
Glad to see the realistic Lopez projection. Paging Howard Megdal! :-) Would you prefer the projected SLG "heavy" 91 OPS+ and AV defense or the projected OBP heavy 94 OPS+ with FR defense? Is it really likely to be more than a handful of runs difference?

Now, who exactly was clamoring for the Corey Hart career projection?
   17. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: February 01, 2010 at 09:27 AM (#3451401)
lots of new names in this years zips threads, hope you guys stay and enjoy the site and hopefully become an active participant in it.
   18. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 01, 2010 at 02:37 PM (#3451428)
Not bad for Jimmy boy. How'd you handle Edmonds' missed year? I think I remember Silver over at BP mentioned projecting a hypothetical 2009, but if I had to guess you didn't do that here. I'm guessing your comp system just handled him better?

Previously, I went through baseball history and made a model for projecting the penalty of a missed season (obviously, bigger for pitchers than hitters).

When ZiPS sees a missing season or a season with a sudden dropoff to almost no playing time, it fills-in the low or no-play season to 38% of the previous baseline playing time for hitters and 26% of the previous baseline playing time for pitchers with an estimated penalty.

So, for Edmonds, ZiPS sees:

2006: 257/350/471 (408 PA)
2007: 252/325/403 (411 PA)
2008: 235/343/479 (401 PA)
2009: 217/301/393 (158 PA)

In essence, I had my computer problem-solve the best way to get the projection for players with missed or very partial seasons, given the baseline performance and the "return" performance and let it run for a day.
   19. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 01, 2010 at 02:48 PM (#3451433)
OK, Doug Davis is there now (which makes the rotation look better, obviously).
   20. awebgsu Posted: February 01, 2010 at 07:25 PM (#3451647)
Do you have a projection for Mike Cameron yet, since he signed with the Sox after they were done?
   21. BobbyS Posted: February 02, 2010 at 12:25 AM (#3452149)
TO on Cameron:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/red_sox_signed_cameron/
   22. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: February 02, 2010 at 12:48 AM (#3452164)
The Cubs will surely cub it up.

Shouldn't the Brewers finish ahead of the Cubs one of these years before we get these comments? (Congrats on 05 and 06, when both teams were totally irrelevant). Now where's that smiley face key...

On paper, I don't see the Brewers competing. I don't see a lot of upside here, but at the same time I don't see a lot of downside (IOW, I don't see anyone that seems likely to significantly over or underpeform their projections). The Cubs, OTOH, have a lot bigger range(although I tend to lean towards the pessimistic side, considering age and injury history). I'm slightly underwhelmed by the Cardinals, but they're easily the class of the division.
   23. Honkie Kong Posted: February 02, 2010 at 01:03 AM (#3452177)
This is the definition of a top heavy club, and that wasn't a joke about Prince Fielder!

A couple of good role player seasons, with a couple of bounceback seasons from Suppan and Parra might actually see them take the Central.
   24. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: February 02, 2010 at 04:15 AM (#3452307)
What's disappointing about the Brewers is that GM Doug Melvin cannot seem to commit to a strategy. He originally focused on putting as many bats as possible into the lineup but the 2007 season collapsed because they didn't have a good read on Braun's defense, Estrada was a cancer and Yost did a horrific job with the pitching staff.

So Doug decides to go with defense in 2008 and it pays off. But what Doug failed to recognize some great contributions from his bench and he assigned WAY TOO MUCH credit to his catcher for the pitching staff performance.

Doug goes back to the slugging approach but doesn't go 'all in' so finishing 3rd in runs scored isn't enough to offset the collapse of the pitching staff. And Milwaukee got ridiculously LUCKY in 2009 as there ain't no way on God's green earth Casey, Felipe or Craig have years like that ever again.

So now it's back to pitching and defense with Prince and Ryan to provide the offense.

I will just point out the Brewers last year finished 2 games under .500 with only one starter with an ERA+ of over 100. The rest were, well, rather disgusting. So three guys of this caliber TRIPLES the population. That's progress.

I find the Gamel projection reacting very seriously to the 2009 season when Mat saw his strikeout rate spike through the roof between Triple A and the majors. I think with some time under his belt Mat will calm himself down at the plate.

Having Escobar and Gomez up the middle looks to be a great fit with the pitching staff. Real potential for the staff to be more at ease letting the opposition take their cuts knowing guys out there will track it down.

I like that this is a decidely young team with some guys with a chip on their shoulder. Corey Hart claims to not care that fans are getting impatient with him swinging at sliders in the dirt. Gomez wants to show the Twins they made a mistake. Gamel wants to keep third base to himself. Alcides is determined to snarf up every ground ball on the infield. Prince will be starting his salary bonaza drive. Ryan Braun just hates pitchers.

If Macha can hold the bullpen together and I can keep from biting off my left big toe to ease the pain from watching Doug Davis on the mound I think Milwaukee will exceed expectations.

And you have to love Mose assuming that the post was by a Brewer fan. As if nobody else on BBTF takes shots at the Cubs..........
   25. Josh1 Posted: February 02, 2010 at 04:30 AM (#3452313)
This projection is for an entirely different team from last year. 2009 ran out 5 excellent hitters and generally two black holes at any time. The projection has two excellent hitters, both worse than last year, and otherwise ordinary to poor hitters. On the plus side, no regular seems likely to quite reach the Mariana Trench-like depths of Kendall and to a lesser extent Hardy. Overall, however, the offense looks below hopes and a big step down.

On the pitching side, Gallardo was pretty good last year with promising peripherals, and all the other starters were atrocious. The projections have 4 solid guys and several other options better than most teams' back-of-rotation filler and also better than any 2009 starter outside of Gallardo. I suppose Parra also still has a small chance to break out. The pen looks good. If anything, the pitching according to the projections could easily be above average this year, though I'm not filled with confidence.
   26. BobbyS Posted: February 02, 2010 at 07:02 AM (#3452371)
"The Cubs will surely cub it up."

Shouldn't the Brewers finish ahead of the Cubs one of these years before we get these comments? (Congrats on 05 and 06, when both teams were totally irrelevant). Now where's that smiley face key...


Those comments have nothing to do with the Brewers previous performance...
   27. DCW3 Posted: February 02, 2010 at 09:06 AM (#3452386)
It's got to be pretty difficult to put up a 127 OPS+ in almost 400 PAs and end up with a ZiPS projection of an 89 OPS+.
   28. kwarren Posted: February 02, 2010 at 07:45 PM (#3452639)
It's got to be pretty difficult to put up a 127 OPS+ in almost 400 PAs and end up with a ZiPS projection of an 89 OPS+.


Well Robbie Alomar went from 150 to 89 in 2002. I'm sure McGefee will have no problem going from 127 to 89, especially based on his past history.
   29. The Polish Sausage Racer Posted: February 02, 2010 at 11:00 PM (#3452902)
OTOH, it's entirely possible McGehee was spending more time working on his catching during his past history, and the move to 3rd let him concentrate more on his hitting. Just throwing the idea out there, because he was night & day when he switched positions. Post hoc etc. cautions assumed.
   30. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 03, 2010 at 06:03 AM (#3453148)
Zach Braddock added.
   31. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: February 03, 2010 at 06:37 AM (#3453154)
Can you do a hitting projection for Braddock? He's 1-1 in his career with a grand slam.
   32. Sammy's Corked Whine Posted: February 03, 2010 at 09:00 PM (#3453517)
Maybe this really ought to be renamed the ZIPS Blog. As time has gone on, Dan's contributions via ZIPS have grown and grown, as his time to evaluate transactions has shrunk and shrunk. I'm as grateful for him and his work as ever, but given that there's no guarantee any particular transaction will be evaluated here, much less in a timely fashion, the title of the blog doesn't seem to apply so much anymore.

If there is to be a Transaction Oracle, maybe Dan could delegate it to a trusted peer. As much as I miss the timely looks at transaction, I'm not about to suggest he take his focus away from ZIPS. Maybe him getting a partner here is the answer?

This shouldn't be read as a complaint. Just some thoughts and observations.
   33. steagles Posted: February 03, 2010 at 09:08 PM (#3453528)

Can you do a hitting projection for Braddock? He's 1-1 in his career with a grand slam
did he get picked off first base there, too?
   34. Ken015 Posted: February 17, 2010 at 02:03 AM (#3461684)
Why is Felipe Lopez 2010 projection worse than his 2009 projection when he improved last season? It doesn't seem to make sense.
   35. Ken015 Posted: February 18, 2010 at 01:14 PM (#3462573)
Thanks I knew there was an explanation that would make some sense. Never I looked at his BABIP numbers.
   36. sinicalypse Posted: March 27, 2010 at 12:05 AM (#3486982)
personally, i look forward to seeing as many of joe koshansky's 94 RBIs as i can. it'll make the hourlong trek north all the more worthwhile, as i tell my future grandkids about one of those underappreciated players lost in the remetee braun and son fielder shuffle, the quietest 90 RBI in brewtown, those off of the mighty joe koshansky's bat.

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