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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, October 07, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Minnesota Twins

The 2009 Twins are probably one of the strongest examples of a “Stars n’ Scrubs” teams that we’ve had in recent years, with the team kind of resembling a hybrid between the American Dreams and the SNK Crushers.

The starting pitching was extremely disappointing and the biggest obstacle the Twins have this offseason is that they will probably have the lesser starting pitcher in every game they play this month.  I agree with ZiPS that Baker and Slowey will be a bit better than league-average and Blackburn about average, but Liriano didn’t return to be an ace, as least as of yet, and that really hurt the team.

Luckily for Twins fans, the team survived on the strength of 5 starters having star seasons and one of the greatest seasons by a catcher in baseball history.  Nathan was great, the rest of the bullpen was solid, and the Twins had one of the most exciting stretch runs ever.  Mauer and Morneau with a supporting cast of Cuddyer/Kubel/Span look solid going forward, but all bets are off after 2010 if they don’t sign Mauer.

Offensive Projections

Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Joe Mauer*          c   27 .336 .418 .525 132 497 84 167 31 3 19 84 73 55 4 1   148
Justin Morneau*      1b 29 .286 .367 .512 149 570 88 163 35 2 30 110 74 91 1 1   129
Jason Kubel*        dh 28 .278 .350 .484 135 457 62 127 27 2 21 76 51 91 2 1   118
Michael Cuddyer       rf 31 .275 .348 .475 123 465 71 128 28 4 19 71 48 93 5 1   115
Denard Span*        cf 26 .290 .365 .392 142 549 85 159 21 7 7 60 61 96 24 12   101
Delmon Young         lf 24 .286 .324 .426 138 521 68 149 28 3 13 75 28 108 8 4   97
Brian Buscher*        3b 29 .269 .342 .378 112 357 40 96 16 1 7 44 37 65 2 2   91
Brendan Harris       ss 29 .267 .327 .394 129 449 58 120 26 2 9 49 38 91 2 2   90
Orlando Cabrera       ss 35 .282 .326 .377 142 586 80 165 31 2 7 64 42 65 16 4   86
Justin Huber         dh 27 .252 .316 .407 109 381 38 96 18 1 13 51 30 83 2 2   90
Joe Crede           3b 32 .246 .305 .422 91 329 37 81 17 1 13 45 26 50 0 1   90
Jose Morales         c   27 .282 .335 .369 94 309 32 87 16 1 3 27 24 45 1 2   87
Ben Revere*          cf 22 .283 .332 .366 114 459 63 130 20 3 4 42 29 46 30 15   85
Mike Redmond         c   39 .279 .332 .355 53 172 16 48 8 1 1 19 11 19 0 0   82
Nick Punto#          ss 32 .251 .331 .331 114 359 49 90 17 3 2 33 45 65 15 4   76
Matt Tolbert#        2b 28 .260 .311 .362 102 354 48 92 16 4 4 32 25 56 10 4   77
Tommy Watkins#        lf 28 .263 .321 .358 84 243 33 64 12 1 3 25 20 41 5 4   80
Luke Hughes         3b 25 .240 .295 .377 98 371 41 89 18 3 9 44 27 94 4 1   76
Brock Peterson       1b 26 .242 .302 .366 114 413 46 100 19 1 10 44 31 109 1 1   76
Wilson Ramos         c   22 .256 .297 .369 88 328 33 84 17 1 6 40 17 69 0 0   75
Daniel Valencia       3b 25 .251 .294 .377 133 517 62 130 28 2 11 55 32 112 1 3   76
Alexi Casilla#        2b 25 .259 .317 .333 130 468 61 121 17 3 4 39 39 70 20 7   73
Carlos Gomez         cf 24 .249 .303 .359 136 398 59 99 18 4 6 39 26 92 23 8   75
Matt Macri           3b 28 .238 .292 .385 111 374 44 89 21 2 10 39 27 92 4 4   77
Steve Tolleson       ss 26 .253 .315 .341 116 454 56 115 21 2 5 33 39 88 11 8   74
Trevor Plouffe       ss 24 .254 .297 .370 128 492 59 125 27 3 8 51 30 91 5 6   75
David Winfree         rf 24 .244 .287 .377 125 467 44 114 25 2 11 52 27 106 1 2   74
Chris Parmelee*      1b 22 .217 .299 .352 110 401 40 87 19 1 11 49 45 127 2 2   72
Jason Pridie*        cf 26 .253 .286 .362 132 538 70 136 22 5 9 48 24 109 21 8   70
Dustin Martin*        lf 26 .239 .294 .328 123 464 50 111 20 3 5 46 34 119 16 7   65
Drew Butera         c   26 .234 .286 .327 102 333 28 78 17 1 4 30 22 65 0 1   62
Deibinson Romero       3b 23 .214 .274 .306 96 360 42 77 16 1 5 38 28 99 2 2   53

Defensive Projections
*
Name           CThr 1b     2b     3b     ss     lf     cf     rf    
Mauer*        Av                                      
Morneau*          Av/69                                  
Kubel*                                  Pr/102       Pr/69  
Cuddyer           Fr/104                       Pr/104 Pr/80  
Span*                                  Vg/103 Av/127 Av/112
Young                                   Fr/140 Pr/182 Fr/95  
Buscher*          Av/125       Fr/125                      
Harris                 Fr/104 Pr/105 Fr/106                
Cabrera                           Av/95                  
Huber             Fr/141                 Fr/70       Fr/70  
Crede                       Ex/100                      
Morales         Fr                                      
Revere*                                Av/186 Av/186      
Redmond         Fr                                      
Punto#                  Av/80   Av/71   Av/101                
Tolbert#                Fr/122 Av/105 Pr/85                  
Watkins#                Fr/79   Av/194 Pr/81   Vg/179            
Hughes             Fr/136 Pr/121 Pr/179       Av/121            
Peterson           Av/143                 Fr/185            
Ramos         Vg                                      
Valencia                     Vg/130                      
Casilla#                Fr/152       Fr/127                
Gomez                                   Vg/118 Ex/118 Vg/118
Macri                   Vg/135 Fr/144 Fr/177                
Tolleson                 Vg/210       Fr/193 Av/130 Av/130      
Plouffe                 Fr/113 Av/113 Fr/162                
Winfree           Av/211       Fr/182                 Av/124
Parmelee*          Fr/166                             Fr/162
Pridie*                                Vg/116 Vg/117 Vg/116
Martin*                                Vg/132 Av/109 Av/175
Butera         Vg                                      
Romero                       Av/163                      

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name           PO   EX   VG   AV   FR   PO       COMP 1       COMP 2       COMP 3
MauerJoe         C   98%  2%  0%  0%  0%  CochraneMickey     SimmonsTed   MunsonThurman
MorneauJustin     1B   28%  41%  19%  10%  2%  PalmeiroRafael     MincherDon     TroskyHal
KubelJason       DH   15%  29%  25%  24%  8%    KleskoRyan     SandersRay     TerryBill
CuddyerMichael   RF   21%  31%  21%  17%  11%    JohnsonRoy   CalderonIvan       SmithAl
SpanDenard       CF   13%  21%  32%  23%  10%    LoftonKenny   MetzlerAlex PodsednikScott
YoungDelmon     LF   4%  6%  11%  24%  56%    LeeCarlos   WhiteRondell       RudiJoe
CabreraOrlando   SS   9%  17%  34%  27%  14%  AparicioLuis   RizzutoPhil     DarkAlvin
BuscherBrian     3B   2%  4%  13%  33%  48%  BurnettJohnny   HatfieldFred     LumpeJerry
HarrisBrendan     SS   11%  15%  30%  29%  15%    MarionMarty GustineFrankie       BellJay
HuberJustin     DH   0%  0%  2%  21%  77%      CostoTim     MormanRuss     HolmesStan
RevereBen       CF   0%  2%  13%  38%  47%  WatsonBrandon     RomeroAlex   DamonJohnny
CredeJoe       3B   2%  5%  13%  27%  52%    BatistaTony     BoyerCleteRodriguezAurelio
MoralesJose       C   1%  9%  24%  43%  24%    GoochJohnny   WilsonCraig   BertellDick
RedmondMike       C   0%  9%  24%  37%  30%    GuerraMike     BordersPat   FerrellRick
PuntoNick       SS   2%  8%  23%  35%  32%    WeissWalt   CounsellCraig   FernandezTony
TolbertMatt     2B   0%  1%  4%  20%  74%  LirianoNelson   CastroBernie     MaciasJose
GomezCarlos     CF   0%  1%  6%  29%  63%    RepkoJasonAllensworthJerma     CottoHenry
WatkinsTommy     LF   0%  1%  2%  4%  93%    AllenEthan     EvansJoe   PhillipsBubba
HughesLuke       3B   0%  1%  2%  11%  86%    MoronkoJeff   RedfieldJoe CianfroccoArchi
CasillaAlexi     2B   0%  1%  3%  17%  79%    WigginsAlan     CarterJeff   WalewanderJim
RamosWilson       C   0%  1%  7%  37%  56%  RodriguezIvan   CardonaJavier   PagnozziTom
PetersonBrock     1B   0%  0%  0%  3%  97%    MurrayRich     MormanRuss CarpenterGlenn
ValenciaDaniel   3B   0%  1%  2%  7%  90%  HayesCharlie   MoronkoJeff   SpanosVasili
MacriMatt       3B   0%  0%  1%  6%  92%    TrubyChris   BrookensTom   RedfieldJoe
PridieJason     CF   0%  0%  2%  15%  83%    DuffyChris   CrosbyBubba   GomezAlexis
PlouffeTrevor     SS   1%  2%  9%  29%  60%  RamirezRafael     WilsonJosh VersallesZoilo
WinfreeDavid     RF   0%  0%  0%  1%  99%    MohrDustan   JohnsonAdam     VarnerGary
TollesonSteven   2B   0%  0%  2%  11%  87%  GustineFrankie   CoachmanPete   LansingMike
ParmeleeChris     1B   0%  0%  0%  1%  99%    NelsonBrad     CoxSteve   CastroEdgar
MartinDustin     LF   0%  0%  0%  0%  100%    BubelaJaime     ClarkDoug     RainesTim
ButeraDrew       C   0%  0%  0%  4%  96%    WilsonDan   MillerDamian     PurdomJohn
RomeroDeibinson   3B   0%  0%  0%  0%  100%  HendersonRamon     WoodsTony     RoseBobby

Name         .300 BA .375 OBP.500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB
MauerJoe         90%    93%    64%    60%    5%    0%    11%    0%
MorneauJustin       29%    38%    55%    24%    12%    0%    44%    0%
KubelJason         22%    20%    33%    12%    1%    0%    10%    0%
CuddyerMichael     17%    17%    30%    10%    1%    4%    9%    0%
SpanDenard         34%    33%    0%    0%    0%    25%    0%    23%
YoungDelmon       29%    3%    5%    2%    2%    0%    1%    0%
CabreraOrlando     22%    4%    1%    0%    7%    0%    0%    1%
BuscherBrian       13%    11%    1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HarrisBrendan       14%    6%    2%    0%    1%    0%    0%    0%
HuberJustin         2%    1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
RevereBen         26%    4%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    56%
CredeJoe           3%    1%    7%    1%    0%    0%    1%    0%
MoralesJose       26%    9%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
RedmondMike       33%    15%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
PuntoNick         5%    7%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
TolbertMatt         7%    1%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
GomezCarlos         2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    2%    0%    13%
WatkinsTommy       13%    5%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HughesLuke         1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CasillaAlexi       3%    1%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    5%
RamosWilson         4%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
PetersonBrock       1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ValenciaDaniel       2%    0%    1%    0%    1%    0%    0%    0%
MacriMatt         1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
PridieJason         1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    7%    0%    6%
PlouffeTrevor       3%    0%    0%    0%    1%    1%    0%    0%
WinfreeDavid       1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
TollesonSteven       3%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ParmeleeChris       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
MartinDustin       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
ButeraDrew         1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
RomeroDeibinson     0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Kevin Slowey         26   4.40 10   9 26 25   147.1 160   72 22   27 108 101
Scott Baker           28   4.45 12 11 33 32   196.0 199   97 25   45 153 100
Nick Blackburn         28   4.61 11 11 32 31   183.2 217   94 24   42   86   97
Francisco Liriano*      26   4.68 10 10 31 26   157.2 156   82 19   62 143   95
Carl Pavano           34   5.04   6   8 19 19   110.2 127   62 16   25   72   88
Brian Duensing*        27   5.18   8 10 32 24   149.1 176   86 20   49   75   86
Boof Bonser           28   5.24   3   5 23 11   80.2   89   47 12   29   64   86
Jeff Manship         25   5.39   8 11 29 26   140.1 167   84 15   58   72   83
Glen Perkins*        27   5.62   5   8 25 20   115.1 139   72 20   38   58   80
Anthony Swarzak       24   5.88   6 11 27 27   137.2 170   90 22   55   69   76
Jason Jones           26   6.18   6 14 27 23   137.0 170   94 25   48   57   70
Matt Fox             27   6.37   5 10 28 20   113.0 140   80 20   58   63   70
Phil Humber           28   6.65   5 12 32 23   130.0 159   96 28   61   74   67
Cole Devries         25   6.80   5 13 25 25   124.1 167   94 27   58   59   66
Deolis Guerra         21   7.06   6 16 27 25   125.0 160   98 22   73   58   63

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Joe Nathan           35   2.73   3   1 65   0   62.2   48   19   6   21   75 160
Matt Guerrier         31   4.04   5   4 76   0   75.2   75   34 10   24   55 110
Jose Mijares*        25   4.09   3   2 58   0   55.0   53   25   6   21   46 111
Pat Neshek           29   4.21   2   1 30   0   25.2   22   12   3   10   28 109
Ron Mahay*          39   4.34   2   2 55   0   58.0   61   28   8   27   44 101
Robert Delaney         25   4.40   4   4 58   0   71.2   74   35   7   23   50 101
Jon Rauch           31   4.40   5   5 77   0   71.2   75   35   9   22   53 101
Anthony Slama         26   4.50   3   3 52   0   60.0   56   30   6   38   59   98
Jesse Crain           28   4.58   5   5 57   0   55.0   55   28   6   25   44   97
Bob Keppel           28   4.75   3   3 64   0   94.2 107   50   7   34   44   93
R.A. Dickey           35   5.39   5   7 37 13   123.2 145   74 17   52   63   83
Armando Gabino         26   5.53   4   6 47   4   84.2   99   52 11   39   43   81
Juan Morillo         26   5.65   4   5 55   0   65.1   65   41   6   57   51   80
Reid Santos*          27   5.90   3   6 35 11   90.0 109   59 15   38   52   76
Tim Lahey           28   6.12   3   6 49   0   64.2   78   44 10   33   36   73

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player         PO     TOP   MID   BOT         COMP 1         COMP 2         COMP 3
NathanJoe       RP     88%  12%  0%    RiveraMariano       HenkeTom     JacksonMike
MijaresJose     RP     28%  52%  20%    StantonMike       PooleJim   van de BergEd
GuerrierMatt     RP     28%  55%  17%    PeraltaJoel       CorsiJim   SpradlinJerry
NeshekPat       RP     44%  30%  26%    HumphreysBob     JonesGordon   BradfordLarry
RauchJon       RP     16%  55%  29%    MooreDonnie       BeckRod       GieseDan
MahayRon       RP     19%  47%  34%      VilloneRon     StantonMike     CookDennis
SloweyKevin     SP     29%  60%  11%  SandersonScott     ShieldsJames     WoodardSteve
DelaneyRobert     RP     13%  55%  32%    BennettErik   NakamuraMicheal     CoucheeMike
BakerScott       SP     29%  59%  12%  EckersleyDennis   SandersonScott     MussinaMike
SlamaAnthony     RP     12%  51%  37%    LittellMark     BukvichRyan     JenksBobby
BlackburnNick     SP     23%  56%  21%    SilvaCarlos     TowersJosh     BrennanTom
CrainJesse       RP     9%  44%  46%    CastilloBobby     FlorieBryce       RyanKen
LirianoFrancisco   SP     18%  61%  21%  BannisterFloyd     DeshaiesJim     BurnsBritt
KeppelBobby     RP     6%  39%  55%      MurrayDale     DevineAdrian     LinzyFrank
PavanoCarl       SP     7%  46%  47%    ColonBartolo     EilandDave       LieberJon
DuensingBrian     SP     6%  44%  51%    PriestEddie     HillmanEric   RheineckerJohn
BonserBoof       SP     2%  28%  70%    CarlyleBuddy   McGaffiganAndy     HarrisGreg
DickeyR.A.      SP     1%  17%  82%      SlatonJim     FranklinRyan     WalkerPete
ManshipJeffrey   SP     2%  34%  64%      LaCossMike       ScottMike   BaekCha-Seung
GabinoArmando     RP     0%  16%  84%    DavenportJoe       SmithDave     RoehlScott
MorilloJuan     RP     1%  17%  82%    BowlesBrian     BarryKevin     AndersonRick
PerkinsGlen     SP     1%  23%  76%    GassnerDave     IlsleyBlaise     BeattyBlaine
SantosReid       SP     0%  7%  93%    MalaskaMark       WardBryan       LeeMark
SwarzakAnthony   SP     0%  11%  89%    PowellBrian ClutterbuckBryan     LeeseBrandon
LaheyTimothy     RP     0%  6%  94%      SmallMark     NickleDoug     RitchieTodd
FoxMatthew       SP     0%  4%  96%    KelingKorey   MendozaHatuey     BouknightKip
HumberPhilip     SP     0%  2%  98%      LintonDoug     LeisterJohn       MottlRyan
JonesJason       SP     0%  1%  99%    MiddletonKyle     TamayoDanny     ZieglerBrad
DevriesCole     SP     0%  1%  99%    TamayoDanny     ValdezEdward       BrowerJim
GuerraDeolis     SP     0%  0%  100%    StemleSteve     RotheyMark       MackTony

Player         130 ERA+  100 ERA+  K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9

<1
NathanJoe 88% 100% 99% 8% 74%
MijaresJose 28% 74% 29% 2% 59%
GuerrierMatt 18% 73% 5% 9% 38%
NeshekPat 33% 65% 68% 17% 62%
RauchJon 12% 59% 5% 14% 51%
MahayRon 14% 52% 11% 1% 36%
SloweyKevin 5% 58% 4% 85% 16%
DelaneyRobert 9% 55% 2% 7% 67%
BakerScott 4% 57% 12% 49% 39%
SlamaAnthony 12% 56% 73% 0% 79%
BlackburnNick 3% 46% 0% 53% 32%
CrainJesse 9% 46% 21% 0% 63%
LirianoFrancisco 2% 40% 55% 1% 48%
KeppelBobby 5% 36% 0% 4% 83%
PavanoCarl 1% 22% 1% 55% 21%
DuensingBrian 1% 17% 0% 5% 35%
BonserBoof 1% 20% 16% 3% 27%
DickeyR.A. 1% 11% 1% 2% 36%
ManshipJeffrey 0% 9% 0% 0% 63%
GabinoArmando 0% 10% 0% 0% 40%
MorilloJuan 1% 10% 16% 0% 80%
PerkinsGlen 0% 5% 0% 5% 11%
SantosReid 0% 3% 0% 0% 13%
SwarzakAnthony 0% 1% 0% 0% 13%
LaheyTimothy 0% 4% 0% 0% 22%
FoxMatthew 0% 1% 0% 0% 8%
HumberPhilip 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
JonesJason 0% 0% 0% 0% 3%
DevriesCole 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
GuerraDeolis 0% 0% 0% 0% 8%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name           BA OBP SLG   G   AB     R     H   2B 3B   HR RBI   BB   SO SB CS OPS+
MorneauJustin   .274 .350 .482 2162 8138   1191   2229 470 31 386 1502   971   1347   8 18 118
MauerJoe       .318 .403 .477 2306 8616   1377   2743 491 43 263 1296 1265   1020 83 24 133
CuddyerMichael   .265 .338 .451 1530 5534   814   1468 320 49 203 786   560   1160 63 19 107

Player         W   L   S   ERA     G   GS   IP     H   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
NathanJoe       63   29   478 2.85   918   29 1050   786   100   387   1148   154

All figures in % based on projection playing time

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

Defense is given both as a range number in the same quintiles (EX/VG/AV/FR/PO).  The number after
the range is the projected error rate as a percentage of league average, with higher numbers being
worse.

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 07, 2009 at 05:12 PM | 29 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. JMPH Posted: October 07, 2009 at 05:21 PM (#3343804)
I don't see a third straight one-game playoff listed in ODDIBE.
   2. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 07, 2009 at 05:29 PM (#3343820)
I want to see Anthony Slama in the big leagues just for his name.
   3. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: October 07, 2009 at 05:43 PM (#3343846)
Wow, that dropoff from Mauer-Morneau-Cuddyer-Kubel-Span is pretty huge. I had never really looked at their roster that closely before.

Kudos to the Twins for winning the division with this group.
   4. WillYoung Posted: October 07, 2009 at 05:48 PM (#3343857)
There is no way Mike Redmond hits a triple in 2010.
   5. RJ in TO Posted: October 07, 2009 at 05:52 PM (#3343862)
If Benji Molina could hit a triple this year, then anything is possible.
   6. Cris E Posted: October 07, 2009 at 06:00 PM (#3343877)
1. Is that Career Projection for Mauer all Catcher?

2. One funny thing about the Twins: if you look through the comp lists above you keep seeing the names of former Twins come up. For good (Mike Jackson) or ill (Tony Batista, Rondell White) they know what they want and they keep going after it.

3. I can't tell if this team is built for the regular season or the post-season. The stars carry you to the World Series (Mauer, Morneau, Nathan) but depth and not giving away starts wins in the regular season and they have four #2/3 starters and a lot of 80-85 ERA+ guys for #5 plus a heap of fair relievers and only a couple of defense fetishist spots to fill around average or better batters. The trouble is, they do give away regular season games with the defense fetish, and they aren't built for the post season because they have no #1/2 starters. It's close to a very good team (and good fundamentals may make it more likely that the bad guys don't lose for you even when they aren't winning for you either) but it's not quite there.
   7. Cris E Posted: October 07, 2009 at 06:05 PM (#3343885)
Oh, and I take the under on the Redmond projection, whatever it is. 82 OPS+ ? Too high. He looks utterly done, even as a traditional backup. In a situation where they might want to DH Mauer more than a normal starting catcher he's a very bad fit.
   8. Craig in MN Posted: October 07, 2009 at 06:05 PM (#3343888)
Seeing Brian Buscher so close to the top of that list makes me want to poke my eyes out.

The good news is that the Twins are a #1 starter, a decent infielder, and a bench bat away from being a really good team. And the bullpen should be very solid either way. I think I said the same things last year, though.
   9. Walt Davis Posted: October 07, 2009 at 06:17 PM (#3343907)
For a team with a "fundamentals" rep, the Twins sure play some lousy defense (according to ZiPS). Carlos Gomez, a couple of average guys and a bunch of drek.

You know the aged SS pickings are slim when Jeter and Cabrera have the same top 2 comps (in different order).

And so ZiPS is projecting that Matt Macri is going to make a deal with the devil any moment now?

I do love the comps just for all the names -- whoever thought I'd see Jerry Lumpe's name again?
   10. JMPH Posted: October 07, 2009 at 06:25 PM (#3343916)
For a team with a "fundamentals" rep, the Twins sure play some lousy defense (according to ZiPS).

The fundamentals reputation was earned by previous teams and is still applied to this one by lazy sportscasters. This team played a completely different brand of baseball than the Twins have provided in the past--mediocre starting pitching, lots of homeruns, less than stellar defense.
   11. Zoppity Zoop Posted: October 07, 2009 at 06:26 PM (#3343917)

I do love the comps just for all the names -- whoever thought I'd see Jerry Lumpe's name again?


He's Lumpe! He's Lumpe! He's in Walt's head.
   12. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: October 07, 2009 at 11:00 PM (#3344349)
Not ZIPS related, but:

Darling: "I don't think anyone has made the transition from shortstop to third as well as Alex Rodriguez."


BULL @(#*$&@#*$
   13. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: October 07, 2009 at 11:28 PM (#3344446)
1. Is that Career Projection for Mauer all Catcher?

Technically, Mauer wasn't even all catcher this year - he was about 80% catcher, 20% DH.
   14. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: October 08, 2009 at 05:26 AM (#3344743)
So Mauer is the greatest catcher of all time? That's pretty cool.
   15. Harry Balsagne, anti-Centaur hate crime division Posted: October 08, 2009 at 06:01 AM (#3344753)
The fundamentals reputation was earned by previous teams and is still applied to this one by lazy sportscasters. This team played a completely different brand of baseball than the Twins have provided in the past--mediocre starting pitching, lots of homeruns, less than stellar defense.

Another way of putting it would be that was earned by the enduring baseball paradigm of Ron Gardenhire, regardless of the actual skill set of his players.
   16. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: October 08, 2009 at 06:52 AM (#3344759)
Is Span really only an average defensive CFer? I have to admit I was pretty surprised to see that his UZR in CF for his career is -11. I admittedly only watch the Twins when the Sox play them, but he looks pretty spectacular wherever he's at in the OF...
   17. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: October 08, 2009 at 10:41 AM (#3344778)
The Twins, in theory, are perfectly aligned for the offseason. They have gaping holes in the infield which can be significantly upgraded just with below average players, and they don't actually need any pitching at all. While the Twins have nearly $60M locked up going into 2010, they're also opening a new ballpark and should have a bit more cash to spend. There are a reasonable number of competent 2B/3B types out there, and two of those guys are really all they need to be the best AL Central club going into 2010.

They could also see real improvement from dumping Delmon Young and picking up a better fielder for LF, even if they didn't improve his offense by much. (If only Carlos Gomez could hit at all.)
   18. sunnyday2 Posted: October 08, 2009 at 10:53 AM (#3344779)
It's very hard with those projections to get to 1450 IP from that staff. You have to go about 7 starters and 7 relievers deep to do it, but of course that was the pattern this past year. The starters will be better next year at least judging by their age, well, and having watched them and their injury struggles. The bullpen actually struggled the first half of the year then jelled pretty well. It should be about the same next year, assuming Nathan still has it. He can't go forever.

But the big questions, it seems to me, are with the position players. Just grab the top 15 guys for OPS and you've got a decent distribution by position but some significant changes from 2009 and the Twins have been pretty conservative about making roster changes. So Punto will be back. But what of Gomez? Harris? Buscher? Cabrera? Young? What of Revere and Valencia? The Twins win with the whole roster. Who those 23rd and 24th and 25th guys will be will be important but difficult decisions for the Twins to make.

Personally I'd bring in Revere in place of Gomez. I'd hope to hang on to Cabrera. I'd sign a real 3B. Beyond that, maybe no change is for the better.
   19. Walt Davis Posted: October 08, 2009 at 06:38 PM (#3345169)
They have gaping holes in the infield which can be significantly upgraded just with below average players,

Except such players tend to be rather hard to find (though not expensive by FA standards). Good shape for the offseason is when you're strong at (most of) the defensive positions and only need to find non-awful alternatives at the corners. There are few, if any, "decent" MI on the "freely available" market. There are no FA SS of note and while there are a number of decent 2B they're all at the dreaded ages for 2B.

It's very hard with those projections to get to 1450 IP from that staff. You have to go about 7 starters and 7 relievers deep to do it, but of course that was the pattern this past year.

The average team (AL or NL) used 23 pitchers this year, most will have used about 20 by the AS break (i.e. it's not due to Sept callups). So the Twins will be going a lot deeper than 7 starters and 7 relievers. This year the Twins had 11 different guys start and 24 pitchers overall. They received a whopping 75 starts from guys with an ERA+ of 85 or below (average is usually around 45). They got 540 IP from their top 3 starters (that's probably pretty typical to above-average). They need real help in the rotation. Obviously a healthy and effective Liriano would help tremendously.

It really is amazing. The Twins are 5 guys who crushed the ball, 3 hot relievers, maybe half a dozen average players and crap. This sort of thing should give the Royals and Pirates hope:

step 1: Mauer
step 2: Morneau
step 3: crap
step 4: playoffs
   20. JMPH Posted: October 08, 2009 at 06:43 PM (#3345177)
They have gaping holes in the infield which can be significantly upgraded just with below average players,

Except such players tend to be rather hard to find (though not expensive by FA standards).

Not to mention that if you expect a player to be just below average and they have a disappointing season...you're in a lot of trouble.
   21. spycake Posted: October 08, 2009 at 07:00 PM (#3345193)
they don't actually need any pitching at all


Really? Baker and Blackburn, plus Slowey returning from injury, is about all that they have for trustworthy starters. Maybe if they re-sign Pavano...
   22. JMPH Posted: October 08, 2009 at 07:20 PM (#3345215)
They have quite a bit of pitching to throw against the wall and see what sticks, though. Bonser will be back, Duensing, Swarzak, Manship, Liriano, Humber, Gabino. There's no guarantee that you'll get two quality starters out of that bunch, but it's far from a disaster.
   23. DL from MN Posted: October 09, 2009 at 04:49 PM (#3346409)
A little disappointed in the Valencia projection but his glove might get him a shot.

They need a starting pitcher and it isn't Pavano. Doug Davis would fit perfectly.

The bullpen looks solid, I'm pretty confident they don't need Bobby Keppel.

They need a guy who can play 2B and 3B (Mark DeRosa, Adam Kennedy) and hit a little bit. That way they can give Valencia and Casilla a shot and have a fallback position in case one washes out completely. Nick Punto is a good utility guy but stretched playing every day. They don't believe Brendan Harris can do that so he needs to be dealt. They need a SS who can pick it desperately, that isn't Cabrera. Jack Wilson would be okay. Trading for JJ Hardy fits the hole perfectly.
   24. WillYoung Posted: October 09, 2009 at 04:53 PM (#3346417)
There's no way I ever want Adam ####### Kennedy on the Twins.
   25. spycake Posted: October 09, 2009 at 04:59 PM (#3346427)
Adam ####### Kennedy (.289/.348/.410) would have been a heck of a boost to the Twins infield this year. His performance was rather unexpected, though, and I wouldn't expect him to repeat it next year. I wonder what it would have taken to get him in package with Cabrera at the deadline...?
   26. Craig in MN Posted: October 09, 2009 at 05:49 PM (#3346479)
They have quite a bit of pitching to throw against the wall and see what sticks, though. Bonser will be back, Duensing, Swarzak, Manship, Liriano, Humber, Gabino. There's no guarantee that you'll get two quality starters out of that bunch, but it's far from a disaster.

It was a disaster for a few months this year. They've got numbers, but there is no reason to want to count on any of them. Baker, Slower and Blackburn are fine. I say sign the best free agent starter they can afford and let the others battle it out for one slot, rather than two. I'd go on a limb for Harden, I think, rather than someone like Washburn or Davis.

DL is right about Hardy being a perfect fit for SS. I suspect Perkins and Brendan Harris will be traded this offseason, anyway...it's worth at least offering them up to see if you can get Hardy. After signing a pitcher, use whatever money you've got left to find the best third baseman you can find. Even someone with some power to platoon there with Punto or Tolbert would be nice. Garret Atkins signing (after being DFAed), sounds about right.

Harden, Hardy, and Atkins....three fairly short term commitments, reserving enough money to extend Mauer. That works for me.
   27. caprules Posted: October 09, 2009 at 07:02 PM (#3346580)
I think Hardy and Casey McGehee for Baker makes a fair amount of sense for both teams.
   28. DL from MN Posted: October 12, 2009 at 03:50 PM (#3349716)
I think they have to lead with Perkins in a package for Hardy. Harris is a throw in; I think it takes one more solid player/prospect to get the deal done. Do the Brewers just want relief pitching? They can have one of Slama or Delaney.
   29. drivlikejehu Posted: October 14, 2009 at 06:31 AM (#3351503)
I think Baker significantly outperforms that projection, if healthy. His FIPs the past 3 years are 3.89, 3.79, and 4.08. He got off to a rough start this year, perhaps due to missing a good chunk of Spring Training, but was generally very good thereafter. I'd like to see them go after Harden, as un-Twins-like as such a move would be. He's unreliable but I like the idea of Anderson working with him on his control issues. Harden's Canadian so maybe he wouldn't mind the cold.

So far as position players, they need two infielders and have one outfielder too many. There are some decent options out there for the infield, so hopefully the front office doesn't deal with that problem like they did the bullpen last off-season. Hardy would be nice, at the right price. Brutal projection for Valencia... I think he would be somewhat better than that though: his translated slugging % was .433 in AA and .446 in AAA. Clearly OBP would be a problem.

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