BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2010 ZiPS Projections

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, February 12, 2010

2010 ZiPS Projections - Oakland A’s

ZiPS generally likes the A’s pitching less than the other systems and the A’s offense a little moreso. The defense, of course, is excellent.

The offense isn’t remotely flashy, but the team’s generally adequate everywhere and they can fill-in most positions in the case of injury without it becoming a gaping wound. The team quietly finished 9th in the AL in runs scored, up from an embarrassing 2008 edition that scored less than 4 runs a game.

ZiPS isn’t excited about the rotation (though it does like the bullpen). Young pitchers tend to be erratic and there were a number of starting pitchers with at least one red flag (like Trevor Cahill’s strikeouts and K/BB rate). That being said, a lot of these pitchers are 25 and under, so a few of them should take a step forward, my personal favorite to surprise being Gio Gonzalez, if he can control the walks somewhat.

Offensive Projections 

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 

Jack Cust*               dh  31  .240  .373  .428 139 467  77 112 19  0 23  84 100 177  1  1   120 

Daric Barton*            1b  24  .268  .363  .425 147 515  87 138 34  4 13  71  72  87  1  2   112 

Ryan Sweeney*            rf  25  .291  .349  .415 150 540  71 157 31  3 10  63  48  83  6  4   105 

Rajai Davis#             cf  29  .286  .342  .395 126 357  60 102 19  4  4  39  27  59 28  8    98 

Kurt Suzuki              c   26  .277  .334  .404 139 520  66 144 31  1 11  69  39  69  3  1    98 

Kevin Kouzmanoff         3b  28  .264  .310  .448 140 531  59 140 31  2 21  82  27 112  1  0   101 

Michael Taylor           lf  24  .268  .328  .419 127 489  47 131 26  3 14  56  40  93 14  7   100 

Jake Fox                 1b  27  .252  .313  .442 133 468  69 118 27  1 20  76  32 102  2  1   100 

Mark Ellis               2b  33  .268  .327  .411 108 406  57 109 23  1 11  54  33  64  6  2    97 

Travis Buck*             rf  25  .257  .327  .397  97 358  47  92 20  3  8  40  34  74  3  1    94 

Eric Chavez*             3b  32  .242  .312  .427  48 178  23  43 10  1  7  23  19  41  1  0    96 

Eric Munson*             c   32  .245  .326  .400  78 265  33  65 15  1  8  42  30  52  0  1    94 

Landon Powell#           c   28  .248  .322  .402  70 246  29  61 11  0  9  37  28  60  0  0    94 

Gabe Gross*              rf  30  .234  .327  .393 124 295  33  69 16  2  9  32  41  70  4  2    93 

Eric Patterson*          2b  27  .257  .317  .390 136 526  86 135 27  5 11  57  47 102 21  4    89 

Jemile Weeks#            2b  23  .269  .330  .365  94 375  34 101 16  1  6  37  32  80  6  1    87 

Chris Carter             1b  23  .233  .311  .394 146 589  76 137 31  2 20  76  63 177  4  2    88 

Cliff Pennington#        ss  26  .258  .330  .350 144 555  79 143 28  4  5  49  59  97 18  5    83 

Coco Crisp#              cf  30  .248  .320  .370  93 327  43  81 14  4  6  27  35  56 18  4    85 

Eric Sogard*             2b  24  .257  .322  .363 126 521  81 134 28  3  7  55  50  74  8  6    84 

Dallas McPherson*        3b  29  .200  .289  .394 132 449  53  90 17  2 22  64  54 194  5  2    82 

Adrian Cardenas*         2b  22  .252  .309  .340 129 515  65 130 29  2  4  51  42  91  6  3    75 

Adam Rosales             3b  27  .233  .299  .363 126 433  57 101 23  3  9  47  34  89  6  3    78 

Sean Doolittle*          1b  23  .234  .296  .361  75 299  35  70 15  1  7  32  26  84  2  2    76 

Steve Tolleson           ss  26  .249  .313  .336 116 453  54 113 20  2  5  32  40  85 11  8    74 

Josh Donaldson           c   24  .233  .305  .335 126 486  54 113 27  1  7  64  50 110  4  2    72 

Matt Whitney             3b  26  .231  .295  .344 132 459  44 106 23  1  9  43  39 125  1  1    72 

Willy Taveras            cf  28  .253  .303  .310 115 435  61 110 15  2  2  23  27  70 36  7    66 

Gregorio Petit           ss  25  .247  .289  .323 123 461  51 114 21  1  4  40  26  97  3  4    65 

Defensive Projections

Name               CThr 1b      2b      3b      ss      lf      cf      rf      

Cust*                                                   Pr/125          Pr/127  

Barton*                 Vg/113                                                  

Sweeney*                                                Vg/44   Vg/59   Ex/71   

Davis#                                                  Vg/105  Ex/105  Vg/105  

Suzuki             Av                                                           

Kouzmanoff                              Av/89                                   

Taylor                                                  Av/128          Fr/146  

Fox                Pr   Av/136          Pr/151          Pr/76           Pr/76   

Ellis                           Vg/72                                           

Buck*                                                   Av/125  Pr/125  Av/125  

Chavez*                                 Av/73                                   

Munson*            Pr   Av/123                                                  

Powell#            Vg                                                           

Gross*                                                  Av/99   Fr/99   Av/99   

Patterson*                      Fr/134                  Av/131  Fr/131  Av/131  

Weeks#                          Av/152                                          

Carter                  Fr/197          Pr/203          Fr/197          Fr/197  

Pennington#                     Av/162  Av/124  Av/124                          

Crisp#                                                          Vg/85           

Sogard*                         Av/142                                          

McPherson*              Av/117          Av/117                                  

Cardenas*                       Av/120  Fr/112  Fr/112                          

Rosales                 Av/117  Pr/120  Pr/120  Pr/120  Av/120          Av/120  

Doolittle*              Av/134                                          Av/133  

Tolleson                        Vg/210          Fr/193  Av/130  Av/130          

Donaldson          Vg                                                           

Whitney                 Av/188          Fr/188                                  

Taveras                                                         Vg/141          

Petit                           Av/113  Av/113  Av/122                          

* - Bats Left

# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name               PO    EX    VG    AV    FR    PO          COMP 1          COMP 2          COMP 3

CustJack           DH   17%   34%   23%   19%    7%      GentileJim      DavisChili      BurrellPat

BartonDaric        1B    5%   15%   20%   37%   23%        KrukJohn     AldreteMike       TolmanTim

DavisRajai         CF   13%   21%   34%   24%    7%    SandersDeion     McGeeWillie      SnyderRuss

SweeneyRyan        RF    3%   12%   14%   23%   48%      MooreJo-Jo   LockmanWhitey    GoodmanBilly

SuzukiKurt          C    6%   24%   28%   29%   13%     AlomarSandy        FosseRay   PhillipsJason

EllisMark          2B   11%   11%   17%   26%   35%       BakerGene      AvilaBobby    JavierJulian

FoxJake            1B    2%    7%   15%   43%   33%   StanicekSteve     PenaWily Mo        SeeLarry

ChavezEric         3B    3%    6%   16%   32%   43%     SecristReed     BolickFrank     HobsonButch

PattersonEric      2B    6%    9%   16%   29%   40%       RiggsAdam    FontenotMike      HechtSteve

BuckTravis         RF    1%    4%    7%   19%   69%     PedersonStu   CummingsMidre     HughesKeith

PowellLandon        C    6%   19%   25%   33%   17%         MossLes     RomeroMandy      BaileyMark

MunsonEric          C    4%   16%   24%   35%   21%   McDonaldKeith     TriandosGus       DavisJody

WeeksJemile        2B    4%    6%   11%   24%   55%    BarfieldJosh    EasleyDamion    ThomasDerrel

PenningtonCliff    SS    3%    7%   22%   34%   34%    ThomasDerrel     LopezFelipe    StockerKevin

CarterChristopher  1B    0%    1%    3%   15%   81%       LeeDerrek     VitielloJoe      NelsonBrad

McPhersonDallas    3B    2%    4%    9%   19%   66% de la RosaTomas        KeedyPat   LandryJacques

CardenasAdrian     2B    0%    0%    1%    7%   92%     WellmanBrad        NixDavid PhillipsBrandon

DoolittleSean      RF    0%    0%    0%    2%   97%     SofieldRick     HughesKeith        DarrMike

DonaldsonJoshua     C    0%    1%    3%   18%   78%     TuckerEddie       AvlasPhil   JorgensenRyan

PetitGregorio      SS    0%    0%    1%    5%   94%BenavidesFreddie      VeryzerTom      ParisKelly

Name              .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB

CustJack               3%     48%     18%     14%      0%      0%     30%      0%

BartonDaric           12%     32%      6%      5%      7%      2%      0%      0%

DavisRajai            33%     12%      1%      0%      0%      3%      0%     45%

SweeneyRyan           38%     18%      3%      1%      4%      0%      0%      0%

SuzukiKurt            19%      6%      1%      0%      2%      0%      0%      0%

EllisMark             13%      5%      5%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%

FoxJake                2%      1%      6%      1%      0%      0%      6%      0%

ChavezEric             6%      5%      7%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%

PattersonEric          5%      2%      1%      0%      1%      6%      0%      7%

BuckTravis             8%      6%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

PowellLandon           6%      6%      3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

MunsonEric             5%      6%      3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

WeeksJemile           15%      6%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

PenningtonCliff        5%      4%      0%      0%      2%      2%      0%      2%

CarterChristopher      1%      1%      1%      0%      2%      0%      4%      0%

McPhersonDallas        0%      0%      3%      0%      0%      0%     10%      0%

CardenasAdrian         2%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%      0%      0%

DoolittleSean          2%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

DonaldsonJoshua        1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

MilesAaron             6%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

PetitGregorio          2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Justin Duchscherer        32   3.98   4   3  10  10    54.1   53   24   6   15   37  109 

Brett Anderson*           22   4.13  13  11  32  32   187.1  190   86  21   50  157  105 

Ben Sheets                31   4.32   7   7  19  19   116.2  125   56  14   30   75  101 

Dallas Braden*            26   4.60   7   9  28  24   141.0  152   72  15   46   90   95 

Trevor Cahill             22   4.87   9  13  30  29   160.2  167   87  21   71   94   89 

Vince Mazzaro             23   5.05   7  10  23  23   128.1  149   72  14   48   77   86 

Lenny Dinardo*            30   5.05   7   9  31  21   133.2  157   75  13   47   75   86 

Brett Tomko               37   5.10   4   6  32  11    84.2   91   48  14   26   60   85 

Joshua Outman*            25   5.16   5   7  29  17   104.2  114   60  13   55   71   84 

Gio Gonzalez*             24   5.21   6  10  26  23   126.0  130   73  18   68  113   83 

Justin Souza              24   5.34   5   8  34  14    91.0  104   54  12   39   54   81 

Edgar Gonzalez            27   5.42   3   5  29  10    88.0  102   53  11   35   51   80 

Clayton Mortensen         25   5.77   6  11  26  25   131.0  156   84  19   60   70   75 

Matt Wright               28   5.87   3   7  19  16    92.0  109   60  16   35   46   74 

Tyson Ross                23   5.93   4   9  20  19    85.0   98   56  13   47   50   73 

Pedro Figueroa*           24   6.06   5  10  23  23   111.1  130   75  16   72   70   72 

Daniel Haigwood*          26   6.41   2   5  23  11    66.0   76   47  11   46   42   68 

Shawn Chacon              32   6.42   3   6  25  11    75.2   88   54  15   44   46   68 

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Mike Wuertz               31   3.63   3   2  71   0    72.0   63   29   7   29   77  120 

Brad Ziegler              30   3.66   5   3  64   0    76.1   77   31   4   27   46  119 

Joey Devine               26   3.72   4   3  38   0    38.2   35   16   4   17   38  117 

Andrew Bailey             26   3.84   5   4  69   0    77.1   68   33   9   33   77  113 

Mickey Storey             24   4.05   2   1  43   0    46.2   46   21   5   16   43  107 

Dan Giese                 33   4.21   3   3  26   4    57.2   59   27   6   17   36  103 

Craig Breslow*            29   4.23   5   4  64   0    61.2   58   29   7   26   49  103 

Brad Kilby*               27   4.46   4   4  55   0    70.2   69   35   9   29   59   98 

Jerry Blevins*            26   4.50   4   5  66   0    78.0   81   39   9   26   60   97 

Justin Hampson*           30   4.85   2   2  27   0    29.2   33   16   4   11   20   90 

Marcus McBeth             29   5.02   2   3  45   0    52.0   55   29   7   23   37   87 

Fernando Hernandez        25   5.29   3   5  57   0    66.1   74   39   7   34   43   82 

Henry Rodriguez           25   5.30   2   3  54   0    56.0   55   33   7   44   55   82 

Jonathan Meloan           25   5.32   3   4  47   7    86.1   91   51  11   48   63   82 

Sam Demel                 24   5.34   3   5  57   0    60.2   65   36   7   39   46   81 

Bobby Casseveh            24   5.80   2   5  46   0    59.0   67   38   6   42   31   75 

Justin Dowdy*             26   6.75   1   3  26   1    34.2   42   26   5   28   20   64 

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player             PO       TOP   MID   BOT            COMP 1            COMP 2            COMP 3

WuertzMichael      RP       43%   49%    8%    FarnsworthKyle        NelsonJeff         ShueyPaul

ZieglerBrad        RP       41%   48%   11%         WattEddie        MintonGreg     MarberryFirpo

DevineJoey         RP       39%   44%   17%    BedrosianSteve     GarreltsScott       GossageRich

BaileyAndrew       RP       39%   50%   11%       GossageRich     GarreltsScott       JacksonMike

DuchschererJustin  SP       48%   38%   14%    AndujarJoaquin      GarciaFreddy       RogersSteve

StoreyMickey       RP       30%   42%   28%       HaynesHeath       RobinsonRon   StricklandScott

AndersonBrett      SP       42%   52%    6%      SwindellGreg        BurnsBritt       TananaFrank

GieseDan           RP       21%   49%   30%        WillisCarl        LeachTerry      SlusarskiJoe

BreslowCraig       RP       17%   54%   28%         WayneGary         CottsNeal    DarensbourgVic

SheetsBen          SP       29%   52%   19%       BurkettJohn         SmithBryn       ThomsonJohn

KilbyBrad          RP       10%   44%   46%         CottsNeal    DarensbourgVic     GuardadoEddie

BlevinsJerry       RP       11%   49%   40%         GormanTom      ScherrerBill      StewartScott

BradenDallas       SP       18%   57%   25%        HalamaJohn        TroutSteve        GlavineTom

HampsonJustin      RP       13%   36%   52%      HolzemerMark     SchatzederDan     KershnerJason

CahillTrevor       SP        7%   50%   43%    MartinChandler        GuzmanJose         ArmasTony

McBethMarcus       RP        4%   27%   68%         DorseyJim          LeeDavid        BatemanJoe

MazzaroVin         SP        5%   45%   50%    StableinGeorge      NavarroJaime       MitreSergio

DiNardoLenny       SP        7%   39%   54%         ZerbeChad       MerckerKent         KarlScott

TomkoBrett         SP        5%   28%   66%         RuhleVern          PowerTed        WalkerPete

OutmanJosh         SP        4%   35%   61%          GomezPat      ScherrerBill     MartinezJesus

GonzalezGio        SP        4%   35%   61%   RasmussenDennis      JohnsonRandy      RhodesArthur

HernandezFernando  RP        1%   20%   78%         MillsAlan     ChavezAnthony     SchneiderPaul

RodriguezHenry AlbeRP        1%   19%   80%         ZaskeJeff         PlunkEric       BruneyBrian

MeloanJonathan     RP        1%   22%   77%     PufferBrandon   RamirezSantiago    GraterolBeiker

DemelSam           RP        2%   18%   80%       ThurbergTom     ChavezAnthony       BowlesBrian

SouzaJustin        SP        0%   16%   83%         AriasJuan       ScobieJason        TuckerT.J.

GonzalezEdgar      SP        0%   13%   86%  ChristiansenClay       DavidsonBob     SpeignerJimmy

MortensenClayton   SP        0%   12%   88%    BourgeoisSteve         JungeEric     ParisiMichael

CassevahBobby      RP        1%   13%   86%        AllenLloyd         HudsonJoe       GossageRich

WrightMatt         SP        1%   12%   87%    GothreauxJared  RodriguezRicardo       DenmanBrian

RossTyson          SP        1%   11%   88%        VeresRandy    CarpenterChris       BeirneKevin

FigueroaPedro      SP        0%    6%   94%       PerishoMatt       HillmanEric    HaigwoodDaniel

HaigwoodDaniel     SP        0%    2%   98%         BrownPaul    ReynosoPaulino        JacobsRyan

ChaconShawn        SP        0%    3%   96%            RayKen          QueenMel    ToliverFreddie

DowdyJustin        RP        0%    3%   96%         HillJason       DeHartCasey      BuchholzClay

Player             130 ERA+  100 ERA+    K/9 >8  BB/9 <2   HR/9
<1

WuertzMichael           35%       86%       93%       1%       66%

ZieglerBrad             35%       86%        0%       7%       96%

DevineJoey              39%       76%       68%       3%       65%

BaileyAndrew            26%       81%       77%       0%       63%

DuchschererJustin       26%       70%        3%      26%       65%

StoreyMickey            23%       65%       49%       7%       61%

AndersonBrett           10%       72%       28%      20%       55%

GieseDan                16%       56%        1%      24%       58%

BreslowCraig            17%       58%       18%       1%       62%

SheetsBen                6%       52%        0%      29%       45%

KilbyBrad                7%       47%       28%       1%       41%

BlevinsJerry             8%       54%       10%       5%       60%

BradenDallas             2%       39%        1%       3%       62%

HampsonJustin           13%       38%        5%      14%       50%

CahillTrevor             1%       24%        0%       0%       36%

HornbeckBen              2%       23%       45%       0%       71%

McBethMarcus             3%       25%        6%       1%       42%

MazzaroVin               0%       18%        0%       1%       53%

DiNardoLenny             2%       18%        1%       6%       71%

TomkoBrett               4%       26%        9%      17%       21%

OutmanJosh               0%       12%        2%       0%       44%

GonzalezGio              0%       13%       50%       0%       26%

HernandezFernando        1%       17%        1%       0%       55%

RodriguezHenry Al        1%       15%       72%       0%       47%

MeloanJonathan           1%       15%        4%       0%       43%

DemelSam                 1%       15%        9%       0%       63%

SouzaJustin              0%       11%        0%       0%       36%

GonzalezEdgar            0%        8%        0%       1%       43%

MortensenClayton         0%        1%        0%       0%       22%

CassevahBobby            1%        8%        0%       0%       76%

WrightMatt               0%        3%        0%       1%       11%

RossTyson                0%        3%        0%       0%       22%

FigueroaPedro            0%        1%        1%       0%       23%

HaigwoodDaniel           0%        2%        0%       0%       19%

ChaconShawn              0%        2%        4%       0%       12%

DowdyJustin              0%        2%        1%       0%       43%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name               BA  OBP  SLG    G    AB      R      H   2B  3B   HR  RBI    BB     SO  SB  CS OPS+

SuzukiKurt       .263 .321 .382 1576  5906    714   1552  312   7  127  743   440    817  33  17   89

ChavezEric       .264 .341 .475 1419  5161    781   1364  300  24  246  840   609   1005  51  17  114

EllisMark        .261 .327 .402 1279  4716    676   1232  250  26  120  564   424    744  67  24   95

Player              W     L     S   ERA      G     GS   IP      H     HR     BB     SO   ERA+

SheetsBen         129   130     0  4.00    347    348 2183   2226    258    526   1694    108

All figures in % based on projection playing time 


Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  

Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 

many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.  

ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 

being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 

is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 

the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  

This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in

the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information

is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting

the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 

most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top

quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Indians

Mariners

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

These projections were sponsored in part by:

Dan Szymborski Posted: February 12, 2010 at 05:21 PM | 72 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. jfish26101 Posted: February 12, 2010 at 05:49 PM (#3459321)

Can we get a Scott Hairston projection? May have missed it but didn't see a transaction post about it. Thanks.

Anderson's projection sort of surprises me, figured it would be much better than that. Many people feel Anderson had as good of a season as Hanson and is a better bet moving forward. The difference between them here is interesting especially since Anderson is more than a year younger.

I know a lot of A's fans think they can win the AL West this year, not sure that is the case given what is shown above. Will be interesting to see what happens or what excuses A's fans come up with to bail Beane out if they do in fact fail to win the AL West.

2. something clever Posted: February 12, 2010 at 05:55 PM (#3459325)

Thanks for this as always Dan, good stuff.

If that's all the A's get out of Sheets and the Duke then it's going to be a looooooong season.

I would definitely like to see Gio get the nod for the 5th spot in the rotation out of ST. That should give Cahill time to head to AAA and get back to his power sinker game. It will also buy the A's an extra year of service from Cahill. Plus Gio looked good down the stretch last year and at this point I think he deserves a shot. There is some real upside there.

Offense still looks underwhelming. I love that Rajai's top comp is Neon Deion.

It's going to be painful watching Geren write Chavez and his 98 OPS+ into the lineup semi-regularly at 1b/DH, replacing one of the only 2 real bats on the team.

3. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: February 12, 2010 at 06:01 PM (#3459331)

I know a lot of A's fans think they can win the AL West this year, not sure that is the case given what is shown above.

That's why they play the games, right?

4. jfish26101 Posted: February 12, 2010 at 06:02 PM (#3459333)

That's why they play the games, right?

Sure and it is possible, don't get me wrong. It's just ZiPS would have to be wrong on a lot of players above for that to happen, especially the pitching side.

5. TOLAXOR Posted: February 12, 2010 at 06:06 PM (#3459337)

OFF TOPIC, BUT I KEEP WONDERING - WOULD EHARMONY.COM PROFILE MATCHING HAVE SUCCESSFULLY BROUGHT TOGETHER THAT HAPPY COUPLE, PAULA ABDUL AND MC SKAT KAT???!!!

6. Frozenropers32 Posted: February 12, 2010 at 06:07 PM (#3459340)

I'll definately take the under on Sheets. That seems very pessimistic.

Granted he missed all of last season, but he looks fully healthy now and couldn't really ask for a better park and outfield defense to be pitching in front of. His ERA gained 0.91 from last year's projection. Seems a bit extreme, despite missing the 2009 season. You must have given him a pretty big blow up for the 2009 season stats to come up with that projection for 2010?

I think the last time Sheets had a K rate that low was his rookie season.

7. Saberseams Posted: February 12, 2010 at 06:11 PM (#3459344)

Totally agreed on Sheets. I was expecting an ERA+ in the 120ish range. I'd bet the under on Sheets every day and twice on Tuesday. He's either not going to be able to pitch, or he'll pitch well. He's not going to pitch like Kyle Lohse.

8. Frozenropers32 Posted: February 12, 2010 at 06:15 PM (#3459345)

Curious as to what you used for Sheets BABIP? His hit rate above looks awfully high for a guy with a .306 career BABIP.

Thanks for all your hard work on these! We do appreciate all the time you spend producing the ZIPS.

9. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 12, 2010 at 06:32 PM (#3459357)

That's actually a .295 BABIP projected for Sheets.

Changing league pretty much cancels out the park/defense edge in Oakland. ZiPS doesn't explicitly use xFIP, but HR regresses towards the mean much more than BB or K do and with 2006, Sheets's half-year of ridiculous awesomeness getting farther to the rear, the projection has less 2006 than this year's projection, which goes down due to a lesser 2007-2008 (xFIP in the 4.20 range) and a whole missed season.

10. Danny Posted: February 12, 2010 at 06:46 PM (#3459376)

That Weeks projection looks very optimistic. How does he project the same as Carter and Patterson, and better than Cardenas? I can see the Ks working against Carter, but...

I'm surprised Breslow, Blevins, and Kilby don't project better.

I was hoping for a Brett Anderson career projection...

I don't see how Casseveh would be much use on the Sacramento staff--much less in Oakland.

Oh, and Mickey Storey! I wonder what ZIPS would spit out for Paul Smyth (PECOTA gives him one of the top 5 eqERAs in baseball).

11. Frozenropers32 Posted: February 12, 2010 at 06:49 PM (#3459382)

Agreed, the awesomeness of his 2006 xFIP of 2.85 is further in his past; that said, his 2007 xFIP of 4.43 looks like a total flyer when looking at his career, including the most recent 2008 xFIP of 3.94.

The K rate of 5.8/9 still seems low, as well.

12. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: February 12, 2010 at 06:52 PM (#3459386)

Like munson326 says, check out interesting and diverse articles on Ty Cobb and Larry Lintz at Pastime Post.

13. awebgsu Posted: February 12, 2010 at 06:54 PM (#3459389)

Is there a previous Aaron Cunningham projection that I missed somewhere since he was traded between the A's and Padres ZIPS postings?

14. JJ1986 Posted: February 12, 2010 at 06:55 PM (#3459390)

Who the hell is Mickey Storey?

15. Accent Shallow Posted: February 12, 2010 at 06:57 PM (#3459393)

Dan,

Are the offensive rankings ok? Seems the OPS+s are slightly out of order towards the top (105, 98, 98, 101, 100, 100). Not sure if that's just some slight ranking issues, or if that's indicative of somethign else.

How would Sheets project if his 2009 ZiPS had been his 2009 season line, rather than missing the entire year?

16. Frozenropers32 Posted: February 12, 2010 at 06:58 PM (#3459397)

With Anderson's xFIP 3.61, he must get hit pretty hard with the sophmore slump/regression factor that ZIPs utilizes?

17. Danny Posted: February 12, 2010 at 07:05 PM (#3459409)

Are the offensive rankings ok? Seems the OPS+s are slightly out of order towards the top

The players are sorted by RC/27, and OPS+ slightly undervalues OBP versus SLG.

18. something clever Posted: February 12, 2010 at 07:05 PM (#3459410)

Taylor's projection is very nice.

It's interesting to see the Grand Canyon sized chasm between him and Carter in ZiPS' eyes. The system clearly really, really, really hates big strikeout rates in young sluggers. Hopefully Carter's positive trend last year continues and he keeps improving his contact skills.

19. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: February 12, 2010 at 07:12 PM (#3459417)

Wow Gio and Cahill are terrible, and nobody's all that great. But Mickey Storey's suprisingly good.

20. For the Turnstiles (andeux) Posted: February 12, 2010 at 07:27 PM (#3459428)

It's going to be painful watching Geren write Chavez and his 98 OPS+ into the lineup semi-regularly at 1b/DH

That projection actually seems way optimistic to me.

21. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: February 12, 2010 at 07:37 PM (#3459440)

C'mon, that Fosse comp for Suzuki is you messing with us A's fans.

22. BobbyS Posted: February 12, 2010 at 07:42 PM (#3459445)

With Sheets missing the season, if he's back to full strength, I'd for sure take the over on that. I hope things work out for him there.

How sad, Coco Crisp is my starting CF in 2 sim leagues :( haha

Hey Dan, Would it be possible to get a Corey Wimberly and perhaps a Santiago Casilla (since the Giants got him after their TO) projection?

Thanks!

23. A triple short of the cycle

Posted: February 12, 2010 at 07:47 PM (#3459451)

Hopefully several someones are going to break out big-time from these projections. I'm most optimistic about Gio, Barton, and Sweeney (even though the latter two have relatively high projections already). Rajai looked like he might have established a higher "true talent" level last season, so I'm also optimistic he will beat his projection, though I doubt he will meet last season's performance (108 OPS+).

24. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: February 12, 2010 at 07:57 PM (#3459462)

23: I'd take Sweeney off that list and add Anderson.

25. something clever Posted: February 12, 2010 at 07:57 PM (#3459463)

I didn't notice the Fosse comp, that's awesome.

My biggest problem with the A's off-season is that the $ thrown at Crisp and Gross would have been better spent signing Suzuki long term. The difference between Crisp/Gross and Patterson/Buck certainly isn't worth $7M. Actually, it might even make the team worse.

26. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: February 12, 2010 at 08:06 PM (#3459471)

25: I can't imagine the A's extending Suzuki past his club control years. A lot of his value is tied into playing to damned much, a "skill" that a) may go poof due to injury b) is probably not well-recognized by arbitrators in the absence of big stats.

Suzuki is a minor star, something like a 3-win player if he keeps showing up for work behind the dish. But if the A's don't intend to keep him past club control, they might as well go year to year.

27. For the Turnstiles (andeux) Posted: February 12, 2010 at 08:22 PM (#3459495)

Why is Davis rated Excellent in CF but only VG at the corners?

28. something clever Posted: February 12, 2010 at 08:32 PM (#3459505)

26: Health is a skill and it's one that Suzuki has demonstrated. Minor stars don't grow on trees, especially behind the dish.

I think the A's would be fools not to try and lock him up past club control, especially if the alternative is pissing your $ away on the Crisps and Grosses of the league.

Of course it all depends on price. Part of why I think they should lock him up is because I think they could do it relatively cheaply. That might not be the case.

29. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: February 12, 2010 at 08:37 PM (#3459508)

Suzuki is a very good every day role player, but I can't see him getting a whole lot better. He's certainly not a guy to build a lineup around -- however much he might help the pitching staff (and they do apparently rave about his work behind the plate).

Unfortunately, this looks like a batting order of 8 role players + Jack Cust. Which is just not much of an offense.

30. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: February 12, 2010 at 08:38 PM (#3459511)

Health is a skill

I know people say this a lot, but I am utterly unconvinced. (Or, at very least, the chances of traumatic injury are high enough that a small durability skill may not be particularly important in the long run.)

I think the A's would be fools not to try and lock him up past club control, especially if the alternative is pissing your $ away on the Crisps and Grosses of the league.

I agree the second clause of your statement.

Look, the A's are wringing every PA they can out of Kap'n Kurt while he's young. When he hits free agency, he'll be a 29 year old catcher with a crap-ton of mileage whose value is tied into his ability to stay on the field. I love him as much as the next A's fan (apart from Chavez and Ellis, he's my favorite position player), but I doubt that he's a good gamble going into his FA years.

31. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: February 12, 2010 at 08:39 PM (#3459513)

Which is just not much of an offense.

I don't think "league average" is a stretch for this bunch, but yeah, the run prevention is going to have to be pretty nifty to make this offense fly.

32. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: February 12, 2010 at 08:48 PM (#3459527)

Interesting, the only hitters projected here who were born in a Latin American country are the two worst projected hitters.

Among starting pitchers they only have Pedro Figueroa. (and Edgar Gonzalez who is actually signed with the LG Twins now)

Among relief pitchers they only have Henry Rodriguez. (not Fernando Hernandez, he's from Miami)

33. Danny Posted: February 12, 2010 at 09:04 PM (#3459536)

Gross costs ~$400K more than the minimum. He's not blocking a Suzuki extension.

I know people say this a lot, but I am utterly unconvinced. (Or, at very least, the chances of traumatic injury are high enough that a small durability skill may not be particularly important in the long run.)

It's not just avoiding injuries, it's the ability to play more often than other uninjured catchers. Backup catchers are teh suck (though Powell is actually better than average; he just can't play regularly).

And I still don't get how Weeks projects that well. He's hit .282 in the minors, with just 30 games above A ball. I think he'd be far south of .269 if he were forced to the majors this year. Did he accidentally get one of his brother's seasons thrown into his file?

34. something clever Posted: February 12, 2010 at 09:04 PM (#3459537)

30: I think you're really underrating the importance of a "durability skill", as well as the related factors that go into the prevention of traumatic injury, but we'll just agree to disagree here.

And I think Kurt will still be a solid contributor through his 29-32 yo seasons.

Time will tell.

35. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 12, 2010 at 09:05 PM (#3459541)

Any A's fans wanna take a guess on the 25 man opening day roster? Seems like 30-35 guys could make this team, which speaks well to the depth of this club. Which will come in handy when players start dropping like flies onto the DL as they seem to every summer in Oakland.

36. something clever Posted: February 12, 2010 at 09:11 PM (#3459546)

33: you're right on Gross, the $ isn't that much at all and is a reasonable cost for depth.

And the Crisp signing isn't all that bad either. It's just that for a team that always seems to be scraping every $ together it's money better spent elsewhere.

Really that's my only beef with this off-season and it's a pretty minor one. Hopefully Crisp performs well this season and proves me wrong.

37. Danny Posted: February 12, 2010 at 09:11 PM (#3459549)

Any A's fans wanna take a guess on the 25 man opening day roster? Seems like 30-35 guys could make this team

The roster seems pretty set. The only real questions are 5th starter, UT infielder, and whether Chavez is healthy.

----
Starting 9: Suzuki, Barton, Ellis, Kouzmanoff, Pennington, Rajai, Crisp, Sweeney, Cust

Bench: Powell, Chavez, Gross, UT

Rotation: Sheets, Duke, Anderson, Braden, Cahill

Bullpen: Bailey, Devine, Wuertz, Ziegler, Breslow, Blevins, Kilby.
---

There is some talk of Chavez being the backup SS if he's healthy, which would free up a roster spot for Fox. Gio and Mazzaro will compete for the 5th starte spot, but it's Cahill's job to lose. Meloan could grab a bullpen spot from Blevins or Kilby, but that seems doubtful. The team is paying lip service to Patterson (who is out of options) and Buck competing with Gross for the 4th OF job, but 1) going with Buck would mean losing Gross and Patterson, and 2) Gross is better than Patterson.

If Chavez is hurt, Fox takes his place.

38. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: February 12, 2010 at 09:17 PM (#3459556)

33: wrt to Suzuki, the whole playing more than other catchers thing is huge - it's an enormous part of his value, and what made him clearly less valuable (as a hitter) than only Mauer, McCann, and Martin among catchers for the last few years.

What I am saying is that his ability to play so damn much is not as much of a skill as, say, his ability to hit.

34: I think agreeing to disagree is ok, but I also think that it renders the "health is a skill" meme (who started that, anyway, Will Carroll?) at least debatable. I'm not so much underrating the "skill" as suggesting that it may not really exist (certainly, a durable catcher is insanely valuable). And if Kurt is a solid contributor through his age 32, I'll be cheering him on (as long as he's not on the Angels. Or Red Sox. Or Yankees.)

39. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 12, 2010 at 09:19 PM (#3459560)

Why is Davis rated Excellent in CF but only VG at the corners?

In researching multiple-position players, I've found that play at the highest levels, even at an easier position is very hard to maintain short-term when players don't play the position. Darin Erstad is one of the exceptions. I tend to be extremely conservative about EX ratings.

40. something clever Posted: February 12, 2010 at 09:23 PM (#3459563)

35: I'd say the big question is "what do we do with Chavez".

Keeping him on the roster only to fill in at 1B/DH is beyond stupid and a total waste of a roster spot since he can't even platoon with the incumbents. My hope is that they only keep him around if they feel like he's healthy enough to spot at 3b/SS and can push Rosales/Tolleson/Fox all to AAA.

The starting lineup is basically set:
C Suzuki
1B Barton
2B Ellis
3B Kouz
SS Pennington
LF Davis
CF Crisp
RF Sweeney

The bench is the big question.
BC Powell
INF1 & INF2 Chavez/Fox/Rosales/Tolleson/Patterson
OF Gross/Patterson/Buck

Rotation:
SP1 Sheets
SP2 Duke
SP3 Braden
SP4 Anderson
SP5 Cahill/Gio/Mazzaro (really Mazz's shot is pretty slim here)

Pen:
RP1 Bailey
RP2 Weurtz
RP3 Ziggy
RP4 Devine
RP5 Breslow
RP6/RP7 Kilby/Giese/Blevins/Casseveh/Gio

41. Famous Original Joe C Posted: February 12, 2010 at 09:25 PM (#3459564)

I know SLG is but one number, and this is Oakland and all, but not one hitter projected to slug .450? Yowza!

42. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 12, 2010 at 09:40 PM (#3459578)

I know SLG is but one number, and this is Oakland and all, but not one hitter projected to slug .450? Yowza!

That's the same number of qualifiers with a .450 SLG they had last year, and reality should have a wider range!

Technically, of course, if I Monte Carlo that #### out with various combinations, ZiPS likes Oakland to have 1.3-1.8 .450 sluggers! Also, I think I'm losing my mind because Firefox is underlining "combinations" in red and I'm pretty sure that's a word.

43. Patriot87 Posted: February 12, 2010 at 10:18 PM (#3459614)

Justice.

44. Patriot87 Posted: February 12, 2010 at 10:21 PM (#3459616)

Curious to the ETA on the Diamond Mind database, if there is an ETA for that. Is it when you finish posting the last two teams or is there a lag time after that?

45. jfish26101 Posted: February 12, 2010 at 10:31 PM (#3459625)

There seems to be a bit of a delay before the first build but I haven't been around here that long. It just seemed to me the last couple years there was a small delay. Then there will probably be some errors found, a few players added, etc before the next build is made. That second build would be the first one I'd consider using but there will probably another one or two after that if last year was any indication of the normal timeline/procedure.

46. Frozenropers32 Posted: February 12, 2010 at 10:32 PM (#3459626)

47. Famous Original Joe C Posted: February 12, 2010 at 10:36 PM (#3459627)

Dan,What does it do to Sheets projection if his K rate is projected somewhere close to the levels he ran his last two years of pitching? 6.75/9 in 2007 and 7.17/9 in 2008. Even with a transition to the tougher league doesn't a 5.8/9 K rate seem a little low to you?

Not Dan, but maybe something to do with all the extra foul ground in Oakland making it easier to put a ball in play and thus less easy to get Ks? Just a thought.

48. Frozenropers32 Posted: February 12, 2010 at 10:48 PM (#3459638)

The large amount of extra foul ground in Oakland dampens offensive players stats and benefits pitchers but I've never heard of it having a negative impact on K rates. If you have some actual data on that it would be interesting to see.

Moving from the NL to the AL has some impact on K rates for pitchers, however the decline that ZIPS is projecting for Sheets K rate appears a bit extreme.

49. BobbyS Posted: February 13, 2010 at 12:01 AM (#3459682)

Also, I think I'm losing my mind because Firefox is underlining "combinations" in red and I'm pretty sure that's a word.

Apparently, Firefox just against the idea of more than one combination.

50. Famous Original Joe C Posted: February 13, 2010 at 12:20 AM (#3459688)

The large amount of extra foul ground in Oakland dampens offensive players stats and benefits pitchers but I've never heard of it having a negative impact on K rates. If you have some actual data on that it would be interesting to see.

No, no, just a guess/theory. I have no idea if there's any data to back it up. Maybe I should look it up.

Okay, I looked it up. There were slightly more Ks in Oakland home games than away games over the past two years (+8 in '08, +4 in '09), but in 2007 there were 181 more Ks in away games involving the A's. Didn't look past that but maybe (maybe!) there's something there. I'm guessing Dan will know one way or the other.

51. A triple short of the cycle

Posted: February 13, 2010 at 12:25 AM (#3459692)

I imagine what the team decides to do with Suzuki long-term will depend on whether they have a viable replacement. Specifically, whether Max Stassi develops as expected. (Or is he too far away, relative to when Suzuki hits FA?)

52. Walt Davis Posted: February 13, 2010 at 12:34 AM (#3459696)

The large amount of extra foul ground in Oakland dampens offensive players stats and benefits pitchers but I've never heard of it having a negative impact on K rates.

It stands to reason though. Large amounts of foul ground dampens offense because more PAs end in foul-outs before the hit/walk occurs. Some of those PAs would have ended in Ks (and ground outs for that matter). Whether that adds up to more than 4-5 Ks a year I have no idea but I don't see why more foul ground wouldn't reduce the incidence of all outcomes including Ks. (OK, if there's more foul ground down the OF lines, then I suppose 2B and 3B rates could conceivably go up.)

53. sportznut Posted: February 13, 2010 at 12:50 AM (#3459702)

Dan, do you have anything for Kevin Cameron? Looks like he was lost in the shuffle between the SF projections, and these.

Thanks.

54. A triple short of the cycle

Posted: February 13, 2010 at 02:18 AM (#3459727)

There is so much foul ground in Oakland that high pop-ups often fall untouched because no one can get there in time. Plus, the bullpens are right there. So you get these exciting chases after pop ups, where the guys are sprinting after it and trying to make the catch while trying not to trip on the bullpen mound or run into each other.

55. BourbonSamurai, vassal of the Harpsburg Empire Posted: February 13, 2010 at 02:19 AM (#3459728)

Those Chavez comps make me sad.

56. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 13, 2010 at 02:22 AM (#3459730)

Oakland reduces all offensive events. Singles, doubles, triples, homers, walks, strikeouts. The foul ground, which is massive, is the most likely culprit.

57. A triple short of the cycle

Posted: February 13, 2010 at 02:25 AM (#3459734)

Oakland reduces all offensive events.

Except violent street crime.

58. SG Posted: February 13, 2010 at 02:37 AM (#3459739)

Oakland reduces all offensive events. Singles, doubles, triples, homers, walks, strikeouts. The foul ground, which is massive, is the most likely culprit.

Seems like a big part of it. From 2006-2009, per Retrosheet:

<u>Oakland Road Games</u>
BB/PA: .088
K/PA: 0.179
Foul outs: 549

<u>Oakland Home Games</u>
BB/PA: .087
K/PA: 0.170
Foul outs: 730

59. Mike Emeigh

Posted: February 13, 2010 at 04:06 AM (#3459765)

I don't think the lineup is cast in stone at all. Everything I've been hearing suggests that Chavez will start somewhere if he proves that he's remotely healthy, and that Barton is in jeopardy. I'm also not sold on that bullpen corps being able to repeat what they did a year ago.

-- MWE

60. Frozenropers32 Posted: February 13, 2010 at 04:18 AM (#3459767)

It doesn't look like that would be sufficient to justify dropping Sheets K rate from his most recent levels 7.17/9 in 2008 and 6.75/9 in 2007 all the way down to 5.8/9.

Some drop, sure...all the way to 5.8/9? That is putting him at a level he hasn't been close to since his rookie season.

ZIPS has far and away the most pessimistic K rate stats for Sheets for the 2010 season. Next closest I've seen is in the 6.39/9 range.

61. Frozenropers32 Posted: February 13, 2010 at 04:30 AM (#3459775)

Even using #58's variance of .009. How many PA's does ZIPS project for Sheets in 2010? 500-550?

Using 550 PA's times a factor of .009 results in just under 5 K's for Sheets whole projection. Are half of those starts going to be on the road? So in a worst case if Sheets made all of his projected 14 starts at home, Oakland's park would dampen his K total by 5 K's or a rate of 0.39/9. Realistically, some of Sheets starts are going to come on the road. So what is a realistic impact of the Oakland stadium on Sheets K's 2.5 to 3 K's for his projected season?

Anyways, ZIPS has by far, the most conservative K rate projection for Sheets for this upcoming season at 5.8/9. I think the rest I've seen range anywhere from 6.39/9 to just a tick over 7.0/9.

Just trying to find the logic in the numbers.

Thanks for your time Dan.

62. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: February 13, 2010 at 09:38 AM (#3459829)

Starting 9: Suzuki, Barton, Ellis, Kouzmanoff, Pennington, Rajai, Crisp, Sweeney, Cust

Maybe at the very beginning of the year, but if Crisp is as bad as his projection and Taylor as good as his, I can't see him not taking Crisp's spot by May.

ZiPS generally likes the A's pitching less than the other systems

It looks like HR rate is the culprit -- at least it's what most surprised me. If they give up that many HR pitching in Oakland half the time, that would be very bad.

63. jfish26101 Posted: February 13, 2010 at 06:13 PM (#3459926)

Two teams left (Astros and Angels) and the pace seems to have picked up. You didn't hit your mark of mid February (unless they are completed and just not posted) but I'm guessing they will both be out by the end of next week?

I think overall you have done a very good job with such a large task. I still disagree on a lot of players and I'll be curious to see if Zobrist comes within 5 points of the 123 I guessed. Haha Even I understand that is arbitrary though, just surprised at the projection given what we know now (I've heard BP and KLaw among other sites talk about the change in approach/swing several times and he was always very talented). Thanks and thanks for all the replies over the past few weeks.

64. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 13, 2010 at 06:26 PM (#3459931)

You didn't hit your mark of mid February

Haven't missed it yet! Mid-Feb should be 10th-18th or so, no? I think I'll have the teams done by Tuesday. Then I'll need a few more days to get the spares (requested projections and leftovers, guys like Will Startup, that were projected last year but not yet this year) and clean up guys that are going to lose projections (Bonds, Mussina, and so on).

65. jfish26101 Posted: February 13, 2010 at 06:29 PM (#3459933)

So you do think the final teams will be up by mid-week, possibly the first build by March 1?

66. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: February 15, 2010 at 12:07 AM (#3460336)

I also think that it renders the "health is a skill" meme (who started that, anyway, Will Carroll?)

I think I first read it from Bill James, talking about Pete Rose.

OK, if everybody acknowledges that large foul territory can hamper offense, because of increased foul outs; and that chasing down those foul balls can take a certain amount of extra skill, how can it be that third-baseman putouts don't indicate a better third baseman? This relates back to Bill James, talking about how he "studied it for a week" but couldn't find any correlation between 3b skill and increased putouts.
Sample size, or what?

67. Harvey Berkman Posted: February 15, 2010 at 02:27 PM (#3460519)

The starting lineup is basically set:
C Suzuki
1B Barton
2B Ellis
3B Kouz
SS Pennington
LF Davis
CF Crisp
RF Sweeney
DH Cust

My best guess at 2010 Lineup, using ODDIBE comps, where available:
C AlomarSandy
1B KrukJohn
2B AvilaBobby
3B KouzmanoffKevin
SS LopezFelipe
LF McGeeWillie
CF CrispCovelli
RF MooreJo-Jo
DH BurrellPat

1B was a tough one, could have easily gone with Mike Aldrete for Daric, but still have a bit of mancrush left.

SP1 Sheets
SP2 Duke
SP3 Braden
SP4 Anderson
SP5 Cahill/Gio/Mazzaro (really Mazz's shot is pretty slim here)

Same deal, 2010 Rotation:
SP1 SmithBryn
SP2 AndujarJoaquin
SP3 HalamaJohn
SP4 SwindellGreg
SP5 GuzmanJose/RhodesArthur/NavarroJaime

Watch out, M's?

68. Danny Posted: February 15, 2010 at 05:02 PM (#3460595)

I don't think the lineup is cast in stone at all. Everything I've been hearing suggests that Chavez will start somewhere if he proves that he's remotely healthy, and that Barton is in jeopardy. I'm also not sold on that bullpen corps being able to repeat what they did a year ago.

-- MWE

I haven't seen anyone suggesting that Chavez will be starting regularly, healthy or not. Slusser and new MLB.com writer, Jane Lee, both say he's competing for a utility IF job. Fox might beat out Barton as the starting 1B, but I'd be very surprised.

I don't think anyone is expecting the bullpen to repeat last year's performance (3.54 ERA, best in the AL).

But there does seem to be some systemic difference between ZIPS and other projection systems with the A's pitchers. I would guess it's either park factors, league scoring levels, or fielding metrics. Here's how those three systems see the team's top 7 SP (Sheets, Duke, Anderson, Braden, Cahill, Mazzaro, Gio) and top 7 RP (Bailey, Ziegler, Devine, Wuertz, Breslow, Blevins, Kilby) by average ERA:

.          CHONE PECOTA ZIPS
Starters    4.19  4.34  4.59
Relievers   3.49  3.65  4.00 

69. RedRobot8 Posted: February 16, 2010 at 12:56 AM (#3460847)

the "health is a skill" meme (who started that, anyway, Will Carroll?)

Definitely not Carroll; he hasn't been around long enough. It has been a favorite of Ron Shandler's for many years, but if I had to guess, I'd attribute it to Bill James back in the Abstract days.

70. Willie Mayspedes Posted: February 16, 2010 at 08:17 PM (#3461417)

Regarding the pessimistic Carter projection I'll take that this year if he ends up anywhere near his #1 comp long term.

71. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: March 24, 2010 at 05:07 AM (#3484681)

Oakland Road Games
BB/PA: .088
K/PA: 0.179
Foul outs: 549

Oakland Home Games
BB/PA: .087
K/PA: 0.170
Foul outs: 730

Wow, more than 2 foul outs (on average) in every home game?
I'm gonna have to start watching for that.

72. Der_K Posted: September 13, 2010 at 02:40 AM (#3639220)

Revisiting the Sheets talk up-thread:

System W-L  ERA  G GS    IP   H ER HR BB SO ERA+
ZiPS   7-7 4.32 19 19 116.2 125 56 14 30 75  101 
Actual 4-9 4.53 20 20 119.1 123 60 18 43 85   90 (ERA+ is estimated) 

Nice job, Dan.

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Friday, February 12, 2010

2010 ZiPS Projections - Oakland A’s

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