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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, November 21, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Philadelphia Phillies

Outside of the need for additional catching depth, another solid reliever or two, and somehow eliminating the amplitude of the frustrating sine wave that is Brad Lidge’s career, the Phillies should remain a solid team in 2010, though this isn’t exactly going out on a limb considering the World Series appearances.

The farm system is a bit on the weak side at this point as the Phils cashed in quite a few prospects, but the front-line talent on the major-league squad is strong enough to buy the system enough time to recover.  The only pressing concern is keeping Lee long-term, a must after he conclusively demonstrated that 2008 was no fluke season.  It’s pretty amazing to have reached that point in 2 years; in the 2008 ZiPS, which pegged Lee at a very average 11-10, 4.63, the general consensus was that ZiPS was being extremely charitable.

Philly’s not invincible, but an awful lot would have to go wrong for the team to not be the favorite in the division in 2010

Offensive Projections

Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Chase Utley*        2b 31 .301 .398 .528 146 564 111 170 36 4 28 99 71 105 16 1   137
Ryan Howard*        1b 30 .273 .367 .572 153 582 102 159 30 3 46 145 85 193 3 1   137
Raul Ibanez*        lf 38 .289 .357 .531 120 463 76 134 31 3 25 92 48 90 2 1   125
Jayson Werth         rf 31 .272 .369 .495 127 426 74 116 19 2 24 75 63 119 13 2   121
Shane Victorino#      cf 29 .290 .355 .442 144 541 92 157 30 8 12 57 47 69 26 8   104
Ben Francisco         lf 28 .274 .342 .471 131 467 63 128 31 2 19 53 43 93 13 5   107
Michael Taylor       lf 24 .284 .343 .456 127 489 62 139 28 4 16 73 40 96 14 7   104
Andy Tracy*          1b 36 .251 .342 .452 117 418 64 105 22 1 20 80 56 99 4 1   103
Jimmy Rollins#        ss 31 .274 .329 .448 143 614 100 168 37 8 18 73 49 69 36 6   98
Matt Stairs*        rf 42 .249 .356 .429 104 189 25 47 8 1 8 29 28 47 0 0   102
Greg Dobbs*          3b 31 .283 .329 .447 116 237 32 67 13 1 8 38 17 43 3 1   98
Mike Cervenak         3b 33 .282 .315 .420 111 436 57 123 26 2 10 63 18 57 2 1   87
Carlos Ruiz         c   31 .251 .341 .391 110 338 40 85 21 1 8 46 43 44 3 2   89
Terry Tiffee#        3b 31 .283 .317 .408 87 343 36 97 20 1 7 44 17 42 0 1   85
Jeremy Slayden*      rf 27 .262 .325 .398 110 397 46 104 22 1 10 52 34 102 2 2   86
Dominic Brown*        rf 22 .257 .325 .388 113 448 59 115 21 4 10 53 44 102 16 8   83
John Mayberry Jr.      rf 26 .240 .299 .421 131 458 51 110 26 3 17 55 34 126 8 2   83
Rich Thompson*        cf 31 .258 .325 .363 108 380 57 98 19 6 3 36 32 70 17 4   78
David Newhan*        2b 36 .257 .311 .393 93 272 34 70 13 3 6 35 21 56 4 2   80
Mike Spidale         lf 28 .280 .319 .360 112 403 55 113 15 4 3 34 18 51 16 5   75
Pedro Feliz         3b 35 .258 .300 .397 134 481 55 124 24 2 13 69 30 67 0 1   78
Jorge Velandia       ss 35 .257 .310 .357 67 241 26 62 10 1 4 20 17 54 3 1   72
J.J. Furmaniak       2b 30 .249 .307 .365 119 405 52 101 19 2 8 46 30 88 10 5   73
Miguel Cairo         ss 36 .257 .308 .349 90 241 33 62 12 2 2 24 15 34 7 1   69
Joel Naughton*        c   23 .252 .300 .356 87 298 32 75 14 1 5 34 22 58 1 0   69
Jason Ellison         cf 32 .250 .320 .333 117 360 46 90 16 1 4 28 33 67 10 5   69
Kevin Nelson         c   29 .239 .302 .388 44 134 13 32 6 1 4 16 12 36 0 1   77
Carlos Leon#        2b 30 .253 .331 .327 74 217 28 55 8 1 2 16 20 37 2 3   71
Eric Bruntlett       2b 32 .236 .313 .312 102 199 31 47 10 1 1 19 20 37 7 2   62
Paul Hoover         c   34 .230 .293 .332 64 217 21 50 11 1 3 23 19 60 1 1   61
Paul Bako*          c   38 .218 .287 .318 59 170 16 37 6 1 3 18 16 51 0 1   56
Brad Harman         2b 24 .203 .258 .305 125 469 43 95 21 3 7 43 34 157 1 2   45

Defensive Projections

Name           CThr 1b     2b     3b     ss     lf     cf     rf    
Utley*                  Vg/101                            
Howard*            Fr/136                                
Ibanez*                                Fr/101            
Werth                                   Av/80   Fr/209 Vg/80  
Victorino#                                    Av/70   Vg/85  
Francisco                               Av/88   Pr/101 Av/102
Taylor                                 Av/128       Fr/146
Tracy*            Av/97                                  
Rollins#                          Vg/72                  
Stairs*            Av/163                 Pr/86       Pr/86  
Dobbs*            Av/121       Fr/95       Fr/121       Fr/121
Cervenak           Av/99       Fr/123       Fr/99       Fr/99  
Ruiz           Fr                                      
Tiffee#            Av/103       Fr/103       Fr/103            
Slayden*                                Av/119       Av/119
Brown*                                  Vg/207 Av/165 Vg/207
Mayberry                                 Av/88       Av/77  
Thompson*                                Vg/104 Vg/104 Vg/104
Newhan*            Fr/145 Fr/125 Pr/145       Fr/145       Fr/145
Spidale                                 Vg/97   Fr/44   Vg/97  
Feliz                       Vg/83                      
Velandia                 Vg/61   Av/109 Av/109                
Furmaniak               Av/122 Av/100 Fr/90   Av/122            
Cairo             Av/100 Av/85   Fr/105 Pr/105 Av/105       Av/105
Naughton*      Fr                                      
Ellison                                 Av/86   Av/82   Av/86  
Nelson         Fr                                      
Leon#                  Av/88   Av/88   Fr/118                
Bruntlett               Vg/100 Vg/100 Av/116 Av/100 Av/50   Av/100
Hoover         Av                                      
Bako*          Fr                                      
Harman                 Av/119 Av/119 Av/119                

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name           PO   EX   VG   AV   FR   PO       COMP 1       COMP 2       COMP 3
UtleyChase       2B   94%  4%  1%  0%  1%GehringerCharlie   WhitakerLou   SandbergRyne
HowardRyan       1B   44%  35%  13%  6%  2%    GentileJim     YorkRudy     HodgesGil
IbanezRaul       LF   32%  36%  17%  11%  4%  WilliamsBilly     ParkerDave   HooperHarry
WerthJayson     RF   33%  38%  17%  9%  3%    HisleLarry     WhitenMark   DyeJermaine
VictorinoShane   CF   24%  30%  32%  13%  2%    McRaeBrian       LawRudy GrissomMarquis
FranciscoBen     LF   10%  22%  24%  26%  18%  WaltonReggie   RepulskiRip     SmithMark
RollinsJimmy     SS   43%  26%  21%  7%  2%  FernandezTony     LugoJulio CabreraOrlando
TaylorMichael     LF   4%  14%  23%  32%  26%  WhiteRondell   CarreonMark   HollidayMatt
TracyAndy       1B   4%  12%  17%  36%  31%  McQuinnGeorge   BurnitzJeromy   MartinezTino
DobbsGreg       3B   4%  18%  31%  32%  16%  WallingDenny     LyonsSteve   HatfieldFred
StairsMatt       RF   2%  18%  19%  26%  36%    SauerHank     FairlyRon     SmithBobby
CervenakMike     3B   2%  6%  13%  26%  53%  PhillipsBubba     CoomerRon   ChristmanMark
TiffeeTerry     3B   1%  4%  9%  24%  62%    ShortRick     DuganJoe     NelsonBry
RuizCarlos       C   4%  20%  28%  33%  16%    OlsonGreg   DempseyRick     SewellLuke
SlaydenJeremy     RF   0%  2%  3%  10%  86%      BrownDee   JonesJacque     DeedsDoug
BrownDominic     RF   0%  1%  3%  11%  86%    ReidJessie     AllenLuke     SafferJon
MayberryJohn     RF   0%  0%  2%  11%  86%    MoutonLyle     DunnTodd   WoodsTyrone
ThompsonRich     CF   1%  3%  13%  35%  47%  PodsednikScott   RobertsDave   MurrayCalvin
SpidaleMike     LF   0%  0%  1%  4%  95%  RamseyFernando   BuccheriJim     RomanoTom
NewhanDavid     2B   1%  3%  7%  22%  68%    AliceaLuis   SandbergRyne   ReynoldsCraig
FelizPedro       3B   0%  1%  6%  18%  75%  CastillaVinny     WallachTim   PhillipsBubba
CairoMiguel     SS   0%  1%  12%  37%  50%  FletcherScott   DunstonShawon   WashingtonRon
VelandiaJorge     SS   0%  1%  6%  28%  65%  WashingtonRon   BransonJeff   HernandezJose
FurmaniakJ.J.    2B   1%  2%  4%  12%  81%    MiksisEddie   JavierJulian     MelilloSki
NelsonKevin       C   0%  2%  5%  33%  61%    DavisDoug   HughesBobby   MoellerChad
NaughtonJoel     C   0%  0%  1%  20%  78%    PeveyMarty   MerulloMatt     JasoJohn
EllisonJason     CF   0%  1%  2%  7%  90%    McNeelyEarl     BusbyJim   LewisDarren
LeonCarlos       SS   0%  0%  3%  16%  81%  DelgadoWilson   CaceresEdgar     RiggsEric
BruntlettEric     2B   0%  0%  0%  3%  97%  HairstonJerry   MurtaughDanny   PankovitsJim
HooverPaul       C   0%  0%  1%  5%  94%  DifeliceMike SantiagoBenito McCulloughClyde
BakoPaul         C   0%  0%  0%  1%  99%  DifeliceMike     HeganJim     BordersPat
HarmanBrad       2B   0%  0%  0%  0%  100%  ScarsoneSteve   ThissenGreg     CotaCarlo

Name         .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB
UtleyChase         50%    74%    69%    40%    17%    2%    38%    1%
HowardRyan         12%    36%    85%    38%    5%    1%    94%    0%
IbanezRaul         33%    22%    68%    18%    3%    2%    21%    0%
WerthJayson       18%    42%    36%    16%    0%    0%    23%    0%
VictorinoShane     34%    19%    7%    2%    2%    33%    0%    36%
FranciscoBen       16%    12%    23%    5%    3%    0%    7%    0%
RollinsJimmy       13%    5%    17%    2%    17%    88%    6%    78%
TaylorMichael       25%    13%    10%    3%    1%    2%    1%    0%
TracyAndy         7%    12%    24%    3%    0%    0%    7%    0%
DobbsGreg         28%    9%    14%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
StairsMatt         10%    34%    11%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CervenakMike       28%    3%    4%    0%    1%    0%    0%    0%
TiffeeTerry       27%    3%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
RuizCarlos         3%    13%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
SlaydenJeremy       7%    2%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BrownDominic       3%    2%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
MayberryJohn       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ThompsonRich       5%    3%    0%    0%    0%    21%    0%    2%
SpidaleMike       21%    1%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    1%
NewhanDavid         9%    2%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
FelizPedro         5%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%    0%
CairoMiguel       10%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
VelandiaJorge       9%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
FurmaniakJ.J.      5%    1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
NelsonKevin         6%    5%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
NaughtonJoel       4%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
EllisonJason       3%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
LeonCarlos         10%    8%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BruntlettEric       2%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HooverPaul         1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BakoPaul           1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HarmanBrad         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Cliff Lee*          31   3.23 17   7 33 32   217.1 205   78 18   45 189 138
Cole Hamels*          26   3.70 14   8 33 33   209.0 201   86 26   45 184 121
Joe Blanton           29   4.06 12   9 32 32   206.0 208   93 25   54 154 110
J.A. Happ*          27   4.44   8   7 32 25   154.0 150   76 23   64 122 100
Pedro Martinez         38   4.50   4   4 13 13   66.0   71   33   9   19   55   99
Brett Myers           29   4.56   7   7 33 18   118.1 119   60 20   40 105   98
Antonio Bastardo*      24   4.65   5   5 20 15   81.1   80   42 12   35   71   96
Rodrigo Lopez         34   4.82   7   8 23 21   127.0 142   68 17   34   81   93
Kyle Kendrick         25   4.89 10 12 33 30   173.0 200   94 21   52   74   91
Jamie Moyer*          47   4.94 10 13 30 28   173.0 191   95 27   54 106   90
Kyle Drabek           22   5.03   4   5 16 15   87.2   92   49 12   40   61   89
Michael Stutes         23   5.06   6   8 22 22   110.1 115   62 15   58   73   88
Brian Mazone*        33   5.10   5   6 20 14   83.0   94   47 14   23   48   88
Vance Worley         22   5.38   6   8 23 23   118.2 135   71 18   43   65   83
Andrew Carpenter       25   5.87   7 13 28 25   151.2 182   99 28   61   90   76
Drew Naylor           24   5.91   7 12 27 26   150.2 178   99 28   61   90   75
Gustavo Chacin*        29   6.10   3   6 15 14   72.1   89   49 13   30   35   73
Joe Savery*          24   6.10   7 14 28 27   143.0 174   97 19   89   81   73

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Ryan Madson           29   3.64   5   3 72   0   76.2   72   31   8   24   69 123
J.C. Romero*          34   3.92   2   1 52   0   39.0   33   17   4   25   33 114
Tyler Walker         34   3.94   4   3 49   0   48.0   45   21   6   16   41 113
Chad Durbin           32   4.21   3   2 64   0   77.0   72   36   8   40   65 106
Clay Condrey         34   4.23   4   3 46   0   55.1   59   26   5   18   31 106
Brad Lidge           33   4.29   3   3 68   0   65.0   61   31   8   33   76 104
Scott Eyre*          38   4.33   2   2 44   0   35.1   35   17   4   17   30 103
Mike Zagurski*        27   4.46   1   1 33   1   34.1   32   17   4   18   34 100
Sergio Escalona*      25   4.87   3   4 55   1   68.1   70   37   8   36   56   92
Jack Taschner*        32   4.93   2   2 54   0   49.1   52   27   5   27   40   91
Chan Ho Park         37   4.97   4   5 42 10   96.0 104   53 14   35   76   90
Steven Register       27   5.09   3   4 60   0   63.2   71   36   9   25   40   88
Gary Majewski         30   5.12   2   3 59   0   65.0   75   37   8   25   40   87
John Ennis           30   5.25   2   3 27   2   48.0   54   28   7   20   39   85
Steve Green           32   5.40   1   2 25   1   38.1   40   23   5   26   31   83
Jason Anderson         31   5.51   2   4 47   0   63.2   75   39   9   27   39   81
Jake Woods*          28   5.77   3   5 42   8   92.0 108   59 15   41   56   77

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player         PO     TOP   MID   BOT         COMP 1         COMP 2         COMP 3
LeeCliff       SP     96%  3%  1%      SmileyJohn       OjedaBob     ViolaFrank
MadsonRyan       RP     53%  43%  4%  CrabtreeRobbie   AndersenLarry     MooreDonnie
HamelsCole       SP     79%  21%  0%    SwindellGreg     SmileyJohn     TananaFrank
RomeroJ.C.      RP     40%  42%  18%  BridgesMarshall     CadaretGreg     TolarKevin
WalkerTyler     RP     41%  45%  15%      PallDonn     PavlasDave   CrawfordSteve
BlantonJoe       SP     50%  48%  2%    TollbergBrian   LawrenceBrian     BurkettJohn
DurbinChad       RP     19%  59%  21%      LeeDavid   BottalicoRicky     BochtlerDoug
CondreyClay     RP     26%  43%  31%    PetkovsekMark   TiefenauerBobby     WilliamsTodd
LidgeBrad       RP     17%  58%  25%    StoddardTim   BerenguerJuan     DeJeanMike
EyreScott       RP     22%  45%  33%      VilloneRon     StantonMike     LyleSparky
HappJ.A.        SP     25%  62%  14%      KrivdaRick     SanchezJesus       TudorJohn
ZagurskiMike     RP     23%  38%  39%  AlmanzaArmando   LovingierKevin     FuentesBrian
MartinezPedro     SP     26%  49%  25%    BlylevenBert     MussinaMike       LieberJon
MyersBrett       SP     25%  55%  20%    TrombleyMike OliverasFrancisco     CarlsonDan
BastardoAntonio   SP     24%  49%  27%    SanchezJesus       OjedaBob HitchcockSterling
LopezRodrigo     SP     16%  52%  33%      EilandDave       KesterTim     JohnsonJason
EscalonaSergio   RP     7%  41%  53%      ByrdakTim       MurphyRob   DuquetteBryan
KendrickKyle     SP     11%  57%  32%    BlackburnNick       GeeveDave     ColemanJoe
TaschnerJack     RP     8%  36%  55%      FeshSean   NitkowskiC.J.    PerishoMatt
MoyerJamie       SP     12%  48%  41%      ReussJerry     FlanaganMike     SpahnWarren
ParkChanHo       RP     8%  33%  59%      PowerTed   NichtingChris     SparksSteve
DrabekKyle       SP     10%  46%  45%    RitterDarren       SongSeung   JacobsenLandon
StutesMichael     SP     5%  48%  47%      RinconJuan     ClaryMarty     RoscoeGreg
RegisterSteven   RP     4%  34%  62%      LynchJoe     MohorcicDale   JosephsonPaul
MazoneBrian     SP     13%  36%  50%  MulhollandTerry     MayDarrell     SwindellGreg
MajewskiGary     RP     3%  27%  70%      CoreyBryan     ComerSteve     MarquezRob
EnnisJohn       RP     5%  29%  67%      SmallMark   CrawfordSteve     BonesRicky
WorleyVance     SP     2%  32%  66%    WilkinsMike       DrewTim       BoveeMike
GreenSteve       RP     6%  26%  69%      LeeDavid     McLearyMarty   GrimsleyJason
AndersonJason     RP     2%  16%  82%      MarquezRob   PufferBrandon     WilkersonWes
WoodsJake       RP     1%  10%  90%  MackintoshJason     EibeyScott       DuffyJohn
CarpenterAndrew   SP     0%  12%  88%      BauerRick     NussbeckMark     TamayoDanny
NaylorDrew       SP     0%  11%  89%  ClutterbuckBryan     GutierrezJim     WaechterDoug
ChacinGustavo     SP     1%  13%  86%    SampsonBenj     FlenerHuck   ProchaskaMike
SaveryJoe       SP     0%  5%  95%    RamirezAllan     SeilerKeith     WodnickiMike

Player         130 ERA+  100 ERA+  K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9

<1
LeeCliff 71% 99% 41% 67% 90%
MadsonRyan 46% 93% 52% 11% 77%
HamelsCole 33% 95% 42% 58% 33%
RomeroJ.C. 40% 75% 30% 0% 65%
WalkerTyler 32% 74% 35% 15% 50%
BlantonJoe 13% 79% 6% 21% 44%
DurbinChad 15% 68% 29% 0% 70%
CondreyClay 26% 63% 4% 17% 75%
LidgeBrad 13% 63% 98% 0% 44%
EyreScott 22% 58% 36% 2% 69%
HappJ.A. 3% 53% 13% 0% 16%
ZagurskiMike 23% 61% 66% 1% 60%
MartinezPedro 10% 44% 26% 23% 38%
MyersBrett 5% 52% 45% 3% 11%
BastardoAntonio 7% 45% 42% 0% 29%
LopezRodrigo 3% 35% 2% 24% 33%
EscalonaSergio 5% 41% 22% 0% 60%
KendrickKyle 2% 29% 0% 8% 43%
TaschnerJack 6% 37% 26% 0% 58%
MoyerJamie 2% 30% 3% 9% 21%
ParkChanHo 5% 29% 22% 5% 33%
DrabekKyle 1% 24% 2% 0% 32%
StutesMichael 1% 21% 1% 0% 28%
RegisterSteven 2% 25% 0% 1% 38%
MazoneBrian 3% 27% 3% 28% 20%
MajewskiGary 2% 25% 0% 2% 52%
EnnisJohn 3% 26% 21% 2% 30%
WorleyVance 0% 11% 0% 1% 19%
GreenSteve 4% 24% 26% 0% 44%
AndersonJason 1% 11% 1% 1% 28%
WoodsJake 1% 6% 0% 0% 15%
CarpenterAndrew 0% 1% 0% 0% 4%
NaylorDrew 0% 1% 0% 0% 4%
ChacinGustavo 0% 5% 0% 1% 14%
SaveryJoe 0% 0% 0% 0% 30%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name           BA OBP SLG   G   AB     R     H   2B 3B   HR RBI   BB   SO SB CS OPS+
HowardRyan     .264 .358 .543 1953 7352   1215   1938 359 32 543 1731 1061   2477 20 13 128
RollinsJimmy   .267 .322 .429 2467 10518   1652   2808 611 150 266 1095   828   1311 546 116   92
UtleyChase     .283 .376 .493 1941 7347   1335   2077 429 44 344 1194   866   1431 177 21 122
IbanezRaul     .284 .346 .488 1971 7067   1068   2005 424 49 308 1225   679   1264 46 28 116
StairsMatt     .264 .358 .480 1848 5198   772   1373 294 14 266 906   720   1104 28 24 117

Player         W   L   S   ERA     G   GS   IP     H   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
HamelsCole     214   152   0 3.86   537   539 3411   3275   485   821   3120   116
LeeCliff       220   124   0 3.70   471   459 3002   2982   300   740   2457   120
LidgeBrad       39   41   336 3.88   819     1 814   705   89   386   1048   113
MartinezPedro   234   116   3 3.06   521   454 3058   2474   269   831   3353   147
MoyerJamie     267   205   0 4.25   691   632 4048   4212   514   1161   2429   104

All figures in % based on projection playing time

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

 

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees




These projections were sponsored in part by:

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Dan Szymborski Posted: November 21, 2009 at 04:29 PM | 25 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Shilzzz Posted: November 21, 2009 at 06:14 PM (#3393466)
thanks! good to see a new one up.
   2. zachtoma Posted: November 21, 2009 at 06:52 PM (#3393492)
The Phillies have a one-two punch of John Smiley and John Smiley at the top of the rotation!
   3. Walt Davis Posted: November 21, 2009 at 07:15 PM (#3393514)
The Blanton projection seems off -- that would be his best ERA+ since 2005. The walk rate looks too low.
   4. John DiFool2 Posted: November 21, 2009 at 09:21 PM (#3393570)
Howard would appear (given above career lines) a much better chance at the Hall than Utley, even tho the latter is a much better overall player; Utley's only chance would appear to be to catch Kent for the most HR's by a 2B title. So it's off to the end of the line of second base rejects, along with Whitaker & Grich, for him.
   5. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: November 21, 2009 at 09:40 PM (#3393578)
These seem like very good projections for the Phillies, this looks like a great team. Which is not to say that they're too starry-eyed or anything, necessarily.

Maybe directly following the Pirates accentuates the effect.
   6. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: November 21, 2009 at 10:17 PM (#3393592)
It annoys me that the Phillies managed to get Francisco as a toss-in.
   7. metsman128 Posted: November 21, 2009 at 10:40 PM (#3393601)
Not that it's a really important player, but I was curious how a guy like Rich Thompson or Jorge Valandia gets put on the list but someone like John Mayberry Jr. who actually played in this bigs this season for a few games doesn't even get a projection?
   8. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 21, 2009 at 11:02 PM (#3393616)
Looks like Brandon Inge would be a fit here.
   9. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 22, 2009 at 12:19 AM (#3393633)
someone like John Mayberry Jr. who actually played in this bigs this season for a few games doesn't even get a projection?

He's listed under John Mayberry, Jr. :) Look at the OPS+ 83 area.
   10. philly Posted: November 22, 2009 at 04:00 AM (#3393723)
A rotation with 4 200 game winners sure sounds pretty great! Ok Pedro and Moyer are already there. But are Lee and Hamels both good bets to get to 200 wins? Nothing systemtic, but I've been surprised at the number of 200 game winners that ZiPS has been projecting.

Utley's career 177-21 SB-CS ratio looks odd. He's at 83-11 so that would be 94-10 the rest of his career. He's a good and smart baserunner, but I wouldn't bet on that. A freak show stat - but is there anybody in MLB history with greater than 175 SB and less than 25 CS?
   11. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 22, 2009 at 04:08 AM (#3393728)
I'll double-check the Utley SB thing.
   12. Travolta19 Posted: November 22, 2009 at 04:18 AM (#3393731)
Wow, nice projection on Taylor...Hey Dan, not to hijack this, but can you check out my David Lough question near the end of the Royals ZiPS?

Thanks,
Jim

BNSL Royals
   13. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 22, 2009 at 04:23 AM (#3393735)
Is Taylor the best 5th OF in the majors?
   14. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 22, 2009 at 04:28 AM (#3393738)
Lough will be in the final build.
   15. Travolta19 Posted: November 22, 2009 at 04:42 AM (#3393741)
Thanks
   16. Nolan Giesbrecht Posted: November 22, 2009 at 10:45 PM (#3394073)
That's a pretty nice career projection for Rollins; if he makes it 18 or 19 seasons as a SS and gets to +2800 hits / +1600 runs / +250 hrs / +500 sb, he's in the Hall.
   17. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 23, 2009 at 12:48 AM (#3394153)
Remember the "Chuck Norris"-type comments about Hamels a few years ago? Looking at his ZIPS career, Cole Hamels is so ______ because he will start more games than he appears in.
   18. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: November 23, 2009 at 01:00 AM (#3394160)
Not that it's a really important player, but I was curious how a guy like Rich Thompson or Jorge Valandia gets put on the list but someone like John Mayberry Jr. who actually played in this bigs this season for a few games doesn't even get a projection?

Dan got him confused with some Panamanian dude in the stands.
   19. AndrewJ Posted: November 23, 2009 at 01:04 AM (#3394161)
Utley's career 177-21 SB-CS ratio looks odd. He's at 83-11 so that would be 94-10 the rest of his career. He's a good and smart baserunner, but I wouldn't bet on that. A freak show stat - but is there anybody in MLB history with greater than 175 SB and less than 25 CS?

After a quick search using Lee Sinins' Complete Baseball Encyclopedia CD-ROM, I came up with this list:

CAREER
1951-2009
CAUGHT STEALING <= 30

STOLEN BASES SB CS
1 Pokey Reese 144 26
2 Henry Cotto 130 26
3 Jacoby Ellsbury 129 23
4 Eric Byrnes 128 23
5 Michael Bourn 121 25
T6 Shane Victorino 109 29
T6 R.J. Reynolds 109 29
8 Aaron Boone 107 30
9 Kaz Matsui 101 17
10 Jackie Robinson 97 30
   20. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: November 23, 2009 at 03:51 PM (#3394428)
Through 2004, Carlos Beltran was at 192sb, 23cs for his career.
   21. Neal Traven Posted: November 24, 2009 at 05:35 AM (#3395267)
Beltran is now at 286-38 (88.3%). He's the all-time record holder in SB% for at least 300 attempts.

If you go higher in terms of attempts, Tim Raines at 84.7% is the all-time record holder for 400+ attempts. And 500+ and 600+ and 700+ and 800+ and 900+ ... his totals were 808-146.

If you go to 1000+, Rickey leads at 80.8%. However, only two of the four men with 1000 attempts played during the time period when CS were recorded. Brock is the other one.
   22. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: November 24, 2009 at 10:58 PM (#3396020)
FWIW, Fangraphs has a Szymborski interview.
   23. Famous Original Joe C Posted: November 25, 2009 at 04:03 PM (#3396485)
Wow, Andy Tracy is still kicking around!
   24. Saberseams Posted: November 25, 2009 at 06:20 PM (#3396625)
there's a good chance Scott Mathieson will be in the Phils pen next year. A projection should probably be added for him.

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