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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres

The 2009 edition of the Padres improved on the 2008 team by a dozen wins, though you wouldn’t know it given that all the attention was on the Jake Peavy Sweepstakes.  2010 may very well be a repeat, with Adrian Gonzalez’s eventual destination being the primary target of media attention.

Improvement aside, the Padres are still a team with serious issues that are unlikely to be resolved in the next couple of years.  The messy Moores divorce really threw the team into financial turmoil, which will continue until the divorce is finally settled and Jeff Moorad’s group completes the sale of the team.  As an example of just what a mess the whole situation is, Moorad’s target date for completing the transition is in the 2012-2013 time frame.

It’s not great news for Padres fans, but the team will be very resistant towards any kind of investment in the team, even good investments.

So what do the Padres do?  Pretty much all they can do is try to trade well to keep enough talent coming-through the organization until such time as they’re no longer a zombie team.  A lot of the lesser teams at least have the option at aggressively trying some new things, but the Pads are going to be cheap at pretty much every level the next couple of years.

On the plus side, the team does have a good number of non-terrible relief arms.  The pitching was very disappointing this season, but with a little luck, they could cobble something respectable together.

Offensive Projections

Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Adrian Gonzalez*      1b 28 .268 .365 .507 160 594 101 159 33 2 35 102 88 138 0 1   143
Kyle Blanks         1b 23 .246 .334 .406 134 468 62 115 20 2 17 66 52 145 2 2   108
Oscar Salazar         lf 32 .271 .318 .426 128 432 54 117 27 2 12 65 31 65 3 2   108
Kevin Kouzmanoff       3b 28 .257 .305 .426 140 530 59 136 29 2 19 82 28 117 1 0   104
Chase Headley#        lf 26 .252 .327 .383 146 540 67 136 31 2 12 61 55 159 6 2   100
Brian Giles*        rf 39 .251 .340 .367 82 311 39 78 17 2 5 34 42 41 1 1   100
Will Venable*        cf 27 .249 .309 .385 144 527 70 131 22 4 14 60 41 140 9 2   95
Val Pascucci         1b 31 .217 .318 .368 124 437 54 95 19 1 15 59 61 150 3 1   94
James Darnell         3b 23 .232 .326 .366 132 505 63 117 26 3 12 58 70 134 5 6   96
Chad Huffman         lf 25 .233 .314 .364 132 489 63 114 24 2 12 58 50 133 3 3   91
David Eckstein       2b 35 .264 .325 .335 103 382 48 101 19 1 2 31 27 38 4 1   87
Eric Sogard*        2b 24 .254 .320 .352 126 520 81 132 27 3 6 55 51 77 8 6   90
Logan Forsythe       3b 23 .218 .331 .314 136 522 73 114 18 4 8 48 82 159 7 2   84
Anthony Gwynn*        cf 27 .258 .323 .321 132 445 68 115 14 4 2 29 42 80 18 6   83
Craig Stansberry       3b 28 .239 .316 .346 117 422 57 101 21 3 6 41 45 93 7 6   87
Everth Cabrera#      ss 23 .243 .318 .328 120 461 70 112 20 5 3 35 47 125 36 12   83
Danny Putnam*        lf 27 .230 .303 .358 104 374 44 86 19 1 9 51 35 101 4 3   86
Nicholas Hundley       c   26 .230 .288 .370 101 365 38 84 19 1 10 47 29 98 2 1   87
Henry Blanco         c   38 .237 .308 .342 56 152 17 36 7 0 3 11 16 38 0 0   86
Kellen Kulbacki*      rf 24 .240 .306 .346 69 263 29 63 11 1 5 31 23 63 2 2   84
Edgar Gonzalez       2b 32 .240 .304 .362 103 246 26 59 10 1 6 25 20 64 2 4   87
Matt Antonelli       2b 25 .228 .311 .332 106 394 56 90 17 3 6 36 43 84 6 4   85
Mike Baxter*        rf 25 .236 .301 .338 130 488 61 115 24 4 6 55 44 109 8 5   80
Drew Macias*        cf 27 .228 .313 .321 138 448 60 102 20 2 6 43 52 98 6 6   80
Russ Adams*          2b 29 .238 .297 .343 105 362 44 86 16 2 6 35 30 70 4 3   80
Vince Sinisi*        rf 28 .247 .292 .336 72 259 26 64 12 1 3 24 16 50 2 1   77
Cedric Hunter*        cf 22 .256 .289 .338 139 598 85 153 24 5 5 63 27 68 9 5   76
Peter Ciofrone*      3b 26 .236 .300 .323 111 403 50 95 13 2 6 40 32 86 1 2   76
Luis Durango#        lf 24 .244 .328 .286 129 475 80 116 13 2 1 27 58 93 23 12   76
Mike Collns         c   25 .229 .299 .317 78 271 28 62 13 1 3 27 17 59 3 2   74
Mitch Canham*        c   25 .227 .293 .320 97 375 42 85 16 2 5 45 34 90 5 2   73
Brett Dowdy         2b 28 .234 .285 .316 103 380 45 89 15 2 4 24 24 75 7 4   70
Sean Kazmar         ss 25 .229 .287 .303 125 432 49 99 18 1 4 44 33 87 7 3   67
Yamid Haad           c   32 .212 .254 .304 56 184 16 39 8 0 3 14 10 48 1 1   57

Defensive Projections

Name           CThr 1b     2b     3b     ss     lf     cf     rf    
Gonzalez*          Av/88                                  
Blanks             Fr/124                 Fr/124       Fr/124
Salazar           Pr/102 Pr/123 Pr/136       Fr/102       Fr/102
Kouzmanoff                     Av/89                      
Headley#                      Av/106       Av/115            
Giles*                                            Av/108
Venable*                                Vg/75   Fr/44   Vg/75  
Pascucci           Fr/133                 Fr/135       Fr/135
Darnell                       Fr/153                      
Huffman           Av/93                   Av/93       Av/93  
Eckstein                 Fr/56       Fr/125                
Sogard*                Av/142                            
Forsythe                     Av/135                      
Gwynn*                                  Vg/154 Vg/154 Vg/154
Stansberry               Av/113 Fr/137 Fr/142                
Cabrera#                Av/140       Av/140                
Putnam*                                Fr/114 Fr/114 Fr/114
Hundley         Fr                                      
Blanco         Vg                                      
Kulbacki*                                Fr/128       Fr/128
Gonzalez                 Av/141 Av/141                      
Antonelli               Fr/131 Av/131                      
Baxter*            Av/84                   Av/84   Pr/101 Av/84  
Macias*                                Vg/99   Av/124 Vg/99  
Adams*                  Av/159 Av/159 Fr/191 Av/182       Av/182
Sinisi*            Fr/166                 Fr/166 Pr/180 Fr/166
Hunter*                                Vg/101 Av/123      
Ciofrone*                    Fr/124       Fr/127       Fr/127
Durango#                                Vg/172 Vg/191      
Collins         Fr   Fr/119                                
Canham*        Pr                                      
Dowdy             Av/125 Fr/125 Av/125 Pr/125 Fr/125 Fr/125 Fr/125
Kazmar                 Av/119       Fr/116                
Haad           Fr                                      

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name           PO   EX   VG   AV   FR   PO       COMP 1       COMP 2       COMP 3
GonzalezAdrian   1B   58%  30%  7%  3%  1%    OrtizDavid     PowellBoog     GentileJim
SalazarOscar     LF   10%  19%  21%  25%  25%      MeleSam     EnnisDel   ReynoldsCarl
BlanksKyle       1B   2%  15%  25%  41%  17%    MaasKevin   FielderPrince     LeeDerrek
KouzmanoffKevin   3B   9%  23%  31%  25%  12%    WiggintonTy     CoomerRon   HayesCharlie
HeadleyChase     LF   3%  15%  20%  30%  33%    CruzJacob   BigbieLarry     ScottLuke
GilesBrian       RF   2%  11%  17%  28%  41%    SurhoffB.J.  SlaughterEnos     WanerPaul
VenableWill     CF   9%  11%  27%  34%  19%  GeronimoCesar   DevereauxMike     WhiteDevon
PascucciVal     1B   1%  7%  11%  30%  51%  van BurkleoTy     TracyAndy   SexsonRichie
DarnellJames     3B   2%  7%  17%  35%  40%      EvansTom   HolleyBobby     HulettTim
EcksteinDavid     2B   2%  8%  16%  32%  42%    GantnerJim   TempleJohnny   RojasCookie
CabreraEverth     SS   7%  21%  38%  26%  8%  FletcherScott     UptonB.J.    ListachPat
SogardEric       2B   3%  6%  14%  30%  46%    OesterRon   TreadwayJeffCatalanottoFrank
HuffmanChad     LF   1%  2%  5%  18%  75%    JasterScott     MohrDustan   DuboisJason
GwynnTony       CF   1%  5%  19%  39%  35%  JohnsonLance   ThompsonMilt   SanchezAlex
StansberryCraig   3B   1%  3%  8%  24%  64%    FiniganJim   GonzalezEdgar     MoraMelvin
PutnamDanny     LF   0%  1%  3%  12%  84%  FreemanLaVel   LesherBrian   McMillonBilly
HundleyNick       C   2%  17%  29%  38%  14%    HayesBill     AcevesJon   HaselmanBill
BlancoHenry       C   4%  13%  30%  38%  15%  DifeliceMike   ParrishLance     GuerraMike
KulbackiKellen   RF   1%  2%  3%  6%  88%    PlattWhitey     BradyBrian     BellDerek
ForsytheLogan     3B   1%  2%  8%  28%  60%    BardenBrian     BerrySean     EdlerDave
GonzalezEdgar     2B   1%  2%  6%  22%  70%  O’RourkeFrank   NewhanDavid   DuncanMariano
AntonelliMatthew   2B   2%  3%  9%  27%  60%    BacaniDavid   BensonSteve GarrisonWebster
BaxterMike       RF   0%  0%  1%  5%  94%  KoslofskiKevin   LusaderScott     JonesChris
AdamsRuss       2B   3%  3%  7%  21%  67%    KraussTim   MalloyMarty     MartinStu
SinisiVince     RF   0%  1%  1%  4%  94%    SchulzJeff   WohlfordJim   PowellHosken
HunterCedric     CF   0%  0%  3%  21%  75%    RomeroAlex     KotsayMark   GallagherDave
MaciasDrew       CF   1%  1%  5%  22%  71%  AndersonBrady   ManningRick     PerezTimo
CiofronePeter     3B   0%  0%  1%  8%  90%    StrangeDoug     BerryMike     LyonsSteve
DurangoLuis     LF   0%  0%  0%  2%  98%  BrownDarrell     GwynnTony   LawtonMarcus
CanhamMitch       C   0%  2%  5%  27%  66%  CalvertChris     AusmusBrad   NewstromDoug
CollinsMike       C   0%  0%  3%  23%  74%    GirardiJoe     DempseyPat   BlancoHenry
DowdyBrett       2B   0%  0%  1%  5%  94%  BreedingMarv     LeggGreg   HayesJackie
KazmarSean       SS   0%  1%  5%  19%  74%    LunaHector CabreraJolbert       ColeStu
HaadYamid       C   0%  0%  0%  0%  100%    MolinaJose     BordersPat   HundleyRandy

Name         .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB
GonzalezAdrian     11%    35%    51%    53%    7%    0%    72%    0%
SalazarOscar       15%    4%    7%    6%    1%    0%    0%    0%
BlanksKyle         1%    5%    2%    2%    0%    0%    2%    0%
KouzmanoffKevin     4%    0%    7%    3%    1%    0%    6%    0%
HeadleyChase       3%    3%    0%    1%    2%    0%    0%    0%
GilesBrian         6%    13%    0%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
VenableWill         4%    2%    1%    2%    0%    2%    0%    0%
PascucciVal         0%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%
DarnellJames       1%    3%    0%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
EcksteinDavid       10%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CabreraEverth       1%    2%    0%    0%    0%    7%    0%    82%
SogardEric         3%    1%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%    0%
HuffmanChad         0%    1%    0%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
GwynnTony         5%    2%    0%    0%    0%    3%    0%    2%
StansberryCraig     1%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
PutnamDanny         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HundleyNick         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BlancoHenry         4%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
KulbackiKellen       4%    2%    1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ForsytheLogan       0%    6%    0%    0%    0%    2%    0%    0%
GonzalezEdgar       3%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
AntonelliMatthew     0%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BaxterMike         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
AdamsRuss         2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
SinisiVince         5%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HunterCedric       1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    5%    0%    0%
MaciasDrew         0%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CiofronePeter       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
DurangoLuis         1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    13%
CanhamMitch         1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CollinsMike         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
DowdyBrett         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
KazmarSean         1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HaadYamid         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Chris Young           31   3.74   7   6 20 20   110.2   91   46 13   49   96 110
Mat Latos           22   3.92   6   6 19 17   82.2   80   36   7   31   58 105
Kevin Correia         29   3.93 11 10 30 30   171.2 170   75 16   56 124 105
Sean Gallagher         24   3.98   6   5 24 16   86.0   83   38   7   36   70 104
Clayton Richard*      26   4.34   9 10 36 28   164.0 170   79 16   58   98   95
Shawn Hill           29   4.46   2   2   7   7   38.1   43   19   3   11   23   93
Aaron Poreda*        23   4.51   7   8 33 23   133.2 134   67 10   79   93   92
Craig Italiano         23   4.67   5   7 37 17   108.0 107   56   9   68   86   89
Wade LeBlanc*        25   4.73   8 12 32 29   156.0 158   82 24   57 113   87
Tim Stauffer         28   4.89   6 10 29 22   134.1 150   73 16   49   84   84
Steve Garrison*        23   4.90   3   5 16 15   75.1   82   41 11   26   43   84
Josh Banks           27   4.96   7 11 32 23   152.1 173   84 21   43   82   83
Will Inman           23   5.05   6 10 28 28   140.2 149   79 19   65   93   82
Matthew Buschmann       26   5.06   6 10 31 24   138.2 156   78 18   53   79   82
Ernesto Frieri         24   5.31   6 12 32 25   135.2 142   80 22   68   94   78
Cesar Ramos*          26   5.49   6 12 25 22   121.1 144   74 16   54   63   75
Josh Geer           27   5.58   6 12 29 28   163.0 194 101 29   46   77   74
Walter Silva         33   5.63   4   9 28 18   102.1 118   64 14   44   55   73
Cesar Carrillo         26   5.84   3   8 19 19   94.0 110   61 13   50   44   71
Michael Ekstrom       26   5.92   3   8 28 11   79.0 101   52 11   33   55   70

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Heath Bell           32   2.71   8   3 72   0   76.1   60   23   5   26   81 152
Luke Gregerson         26   3.25   5   3 67   0   74.2   64   27   5   30   74 127
Joe Thatcher*        28   3.33   5   3 70   0   67.2   61   25   5   24   69 124
Mike Adams           31   3.43   2   2 51   0   57.2   50   22   5   21   54 120
Jackson Quezada       23   3.68   2   2 29   0   29.1   27   12   2   12   24 112
Mark Worrell         27   4.00   3   2 38   0   45.0   42   20   4   21   39 103
Eulogio de la Cruz     26   4.06   7   7 44 13   108.2 101   49   8   59   75 102
Edward Mujica         26   4.08   3   3 61   1   79.1   80   36 10   19   65 101
Luis Perdomo         26   4.10   3   3 50   0   68.0   59   31   9   36   61 101
Adam Russell         27   4.17   4   4 56   0   73.1   71   34   6   34   53   99
Rocky Cherry         30   4.29   2   2 51   1   71.1   71   34   6   35   48   96
Ryan Webb           24   4.54   4   5 63   1   75.1   81   38   7   30   50   91
Chris Britton         27   4.70   2   3 30   0   44.0   47   23   6   15   27   88
Jonathan Ellis         27   5.11   4   7 57   0   68.2   72   39   8   40   47   81

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player         PO     TOP   MID   BOT         COMP 1         COMP 2         COMP 3
BellHeath       RP     87%  12%  1%    LockwoodSkip     ShieldsScot     GossageRich
GregersonLuke     RP     62%  36%  3%      WardDuane   HernandezBuddy     AdamsTerry
ThatcherJoe     RP     51%  43%  7%  HernandezWillie   AssenmacherPaul       PlesacDan
AdamsMike       RP     51%  39%  10%      GreggKevin     FrasorJason     LeskanicCurt
QuezadaJackson   RP     37%  43%  20%    PenaAlejandro       InnisJeff     NealBlaine
YoungChris       SP     56%  38%  6%    GardnerMark     PersonRobert   MartinezRamon
LatosMatthew     SP     45%  45%  10%  GonzalezEnrique     MadsonRyan       EatonAdam
CorreiaKevin     SP     37%  55%  7%  StottlemyreTodd     BensonKris     JohnsonJason
GallagherSean     SP     37%  48%  15%        GottJim     GaudinChad     HarrisGreg
WorrellMark     RP     25%  44%  31%    BulgerJason     SerranoJimmy FredricksonScott
de la CruzEulogio RP     15%  55%  30%    CornellJeff     StuperJohn       MillsAlan
BurkeGreg       RP     19%  55%  26%      GardnerLee     SchmackBrian PichardoHipolito
MujicaEdward     RP     17%  54%  29%    MelendezJose       BostHeath     KrawczykJack
PerdomoLuis     RP     13%  49%  38%    HedrickJustin       MeyerJack       JonesJeff
RussellAdam     RP     11%  55%  34%  DehoyosGabriel   ShepherdKeith       FioreTony
CherryRocky     RP     8%  43%  49%    BumsteadMike       FioreTony     GwynMarcus
RichardClayton   SP     15%  64%  21%  SauerbeckScott       OttoDave       McGrawTom
HillShawn       SP     30%  36%  34%      HoltChris   EricksonScott     MorganMike
PoredaAaron     SP     10%  53%  38%    WilsonTrevor     ClarkBryan   AndersonJimmy
WebbRyan       RP     4%  40%  56%      TroutSteve   DeLosSantosRich       DeweyMark
ItalianoCraig     SP     2%  34%  64%      LangdonTed     PacellaJohn     LumleyMike
BrittonChris     RP     9%  34%  58%      SabelErik   LundbergDavid       LynchJoe
LeblancWade     SP     5%  47%  48%      ViolaFrank     SimonsDoug     PainterLance
StaufferTim     SP     3%  39%  58%        PughTim TankersleyDennis     ReddingTim
GarrisonStevenson SP     6%  35%  59%  RobertsonJeriome       JonesMike     HenryButch
BanksJosh       SP     2%  37%  61%      TowersJosh   AtchisonScott     LincolnMike
InmanWilliam     SP     1%  30%  68%      VoigtPaul   BettendorfJeff       LeroyJohn
BuschmannMatthew   SP     2%  29%  70%      SmithChris     AndujarLuis       DrewTim
EllisJonathan     RP     1%  19%  80%      WilmetPaul   GaillardEddie     CameronKevin
FrieriErnesto     SP     1%  18%  82%      HudsonLuke     FletcherPaul   BaerlocherRyan
RamosCesar       SP     0%  12%  88%    CromerJason   ProchaskaMike   CumberlandChris
GeerJoshua       SP     0%  10%  90%        CoxRyan       GeeveDave     TowersJosh
SilvaWalter     SP     1%  13%  86%      BenesAlan     DickeyR.A.      OrtizRuss
CarrilloCesar     SP     0%  7%  92%    WoodyardMark     StemleSteve       HunterJim
EkstromMichael   SP     0%  3%  97%      WrightMatt   FarnsworthJeff   BalsleyDarren

Player         130 ERA+  100 ERA+  K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9

<1
BellHeath 83% 99% 93% 4% 93%
GregersonLuke 54% 94% 76% 1% 93%
ThatcherJoe 51% 91% 84% 4% 93%
AdamsMike 42% 86% 65% 5% 70%
QuezadaJackson 37% 71% 30% 9% 85%
YoungChris 22% 78% 39% 0% 49%
LatosMatthew 17% 69% 4% 1% 79%
CorreiaKevin 7% 69% 4% 2% 82%
GallagherSean 13% 61% 22% 0% 88%
WorrellMark 25% 60% 39% 0% 79%
de la CruzEulogio 10% 61% 4% 0% 91%
BurkeGreg 14% 61% 15% 3% 64%
MujicaEdward 13% 59% 22% 49% 47%
PerdomoLuis 13% 56% 52% 0% 53%
RussellAdam 11% 52% 4% 0% 83%
CherryRocky 6% 38% 2% 0% 82%
RichardClayton 1% 40% 0% 1% 76%
HillShawn 10% 39% 3% 34% 73%
PoredaAaron 1% 27% 3% 0% 94%
WebbRyan 3% 31% 1% 1% 69%
ItalianoCraig 1% 22% 18% 0% 88%
BrittonChris 6% 34% 1% 12% 50%
LeblancWade 0% 18% 2% 0% 10%
StaufferTim 0% 13% 0% 1% 44%
GarrisonStevenson 1% 15% 0% 5% 30%
BanksJosh 0% 11% 0% 14% 28%
InmanWilliam 0% 7% 0% 0% 31%
BuschmannMatthew 0% 7% 0% 0% 30%
EllisJonathan 1% 12% 2% 0% 56%
FrieriErnesto 0% 3% 1% 0% 10%
RamosCesar 0% 2% 0% 0% 36%
GeerJoshua 0% 1% 0% 12% 5%
SilvaWalter 0% 4% 1% 1% 32%
CarrilloCesar 0% 1% 0% 0% 26%
EkstromMichael 0% 2% 2% 1% 39%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name           BA OBP SLG   G   AB     R     H   2B 3B   HR RBI   BB   SO SB CS OPS+
GonzalezAdrian   .260 .352 .472 2354 8762   1378   2276 472 24 447 1351 1204   2021   1   5 128
KouzmanoffKevin .251 .300 .413 1536 5764   619   1448 307 21 195 856   312   1273 11   4   98
GilesBrian     .287 .394 .491 2003 7122   1193   2042 444 59 297 1142 1260   916 112 48 133

Player         W   L   S   ERA     G   GS   IP     H   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
YoungChris       98   82   0 3.95   286   286 1574   1319   196   679   1366   105

All figures in % based on projection playing time

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

 

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees




These projections were sponsored in part by:

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Dan Szymborski Posted: November 25, 2009 at 04:24 PM | 32 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Bug Selig Posted: November 25, 2009 at 06:17 PM (#3396623)
Second...

Best...

Projection...

Kyle Blanks...

Cleveland...

Spiders...
   2. Autobahn Posted: November 25, 2009 at 06:20 PM (#3396627)
Is Adrian Gonzalez really going to be still on this team come 2010?
   3. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: November 25, 2009 at 06:22 PM (#3396629)
I'd make fun of that offense but he hasn't run the A's yet.
   4. Nasty Nate Posted: November 25, 2009 at 06:31 PM (#3396641)
ZIPS has sponsors now?
   5. Walt Davis Posted: November 25, 2009 at 06:32 PM (#3396645)
Now we know that ZiPS is Brian Giles' mom.

Anthony Gwynn? Nicholas Hundley? ZiPS -- the most respectful projections in the game!

I'd make fun of that offense but he hasn't run the A's yet.

The A's have an offense?
   6. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: November 25, 2009 at 06:34 PM (#3396650)
The A's have an offense?

Oh, a wise guy, huh?
   7. Walt Davis Posted: November 25, 2009 at 06:35 PM (#3396654)
I am liking the new meme for success in baseball now. We used to have things like "good pitching beats good hitting." More recently we've had things like "keep your rotation healthy". And of course "exploit market inefficiencies" and "have a huge payroll."

Now the key to baseball success is -- make sure the owner has a stable marriage.

There will be no competitive balance in baseball unless Hank and Hal get hit with simultaneous divorce notices.
   8. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 25, 2009 at 06:55 PM (#3396682)
Now we know that ZiPS is Brian Giles' mom.

I believe that means Dan is Giles' grandfather.

Seriously, though, Giles is one year removed from a .306/.398/.456 line in a pitchers' park, and ZiPS projects him to have a 69% chance of being 40th percentile or worse among right fielders. It's not in love with him.
   9. ColonelTom Posted: November 25, 2009 at 07:00 PM (#3396696)
Kyle Blanks' second and third-best comps are pretty nice - Prince Fielder and Derrek Lee. I'll take the over on that .246/.334/.406 projection.
   10. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: November 25, 2009 at 07:18 PM (#3396728)
evereth cabreras projection seems low i think he will do better than that evereth cabrera came on strong last year also his list of comps is very strange what is b j upton doing on there
   11. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: November 25, 2009 at 07:20 PM (#3396734)
I can't believe this team was 1 inning away from the playoffs in just 2007... Peavy's the only major player they lost!
   12. phatip Posted: November 25, 2009 at 07:32 PM (#3396749)
I can't believe this team was 1 inning away from the playoffs in just 2007... Peavy's the only major player they lost!


Don't forget Trevor Hoffman, Khalil Greene (who hit 27 Hr's that year, & Mike Cameron. That team really doesn't compare to the 2009 version.
   13. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 25, 2009 at 07:33 PM (#3396753)
Kyle Blanks' second and third-best comps are pretty nice - Prince Fielder and Derrek Lee.


Yeah, but I think he's more likely to have the career arc of the first comp, especially in this ballpark. The good news is that he didn't strike out all that much in the minors; the bad news is that he didn't slug .500 in the PCL and had more HR than he did other EBH last season, which is a sign of a serious fly-ball hitter with good but not great power. He got killed by Petco, which I would expect.

-- MWE
   14. philly Posted: November 25, 2009 at 09:09 PM (#3396882)
I am liking the new meme for success in baseball now. We used to have things like "good pitching beats good hitting." More recently we've had things like "keep your rotation healthy". And of course "exploit market inefficiencies" and "have a huge payroll."Now the key to baseball success is -- make sure the owner has a stable marriage. There will be no competitive balance in baseball unless Hank and Hal get hit with simultaneous divorce notices.


Now that you mention it, I think marital strife has already hit the Yankees. Wasn't there a son-in-law who was being groomed to take over until he was arrested for DUI with his girlfriend in the car? Only after he was pushed out of the picture did Hank and Hal move to the front of the line.
   15. frenchredsox Posted: November 25, 2009 at 10:33 PM (#3396996)
NO Greg Burke,shame really as he was pretty good in '08 ;)
   16. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 26, 2009 at 01:43 AM (#3397113)
There is a Greg Burke projection (you can see he made ODDIBE), but I must not have put it in the main section.
   17. Juan V Posted: November 26, 2009 at 01:52 AM (#3397118)
I can see why the Red Sox are interested in Adrian Gonzalez.
   18. BobbyS Posted: November 26, 2009 at 06:12 AM (#3397207)
So Gwynn's improvement at a prime age...isn't expected to be legit (especially his BB%/OBP)? And is he really that bad at fielding a ball?

I expected a little better out of Cabrera, nothing stellar or antyhing.
   19. OBSLCommish Posted: November 26, 2009 at 07:04 AM (#3397218)
How about a projection for Dexter Carter?
   20. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: November 26, 2009 at 11:00 AM (#3397251)
Is it just me or does this team actually not look so bad?

6 top starters by ERA+: 110, 105, 105, 104, 95, 93 (I include six because most teams end up using [at least] that many). That's well above average.

6 top relievers (about the number that see high-leverage innings): 152, 127, 124, 120, 112, 103. Again, that's well above average.

Optimal starting lineup by OPS+ with defense:
C Hundley 87/Fr
1B Gonzalez 143/Av
2B Eckstein 87/Fr (is he a free agent?)
SS Cabrera 83/Av
3B Kouzmanoff 104/Av
LF Salazar 108/Fr
CF Gwynn 83/Vg
RF Giles 100/Av

This lineup is somewhat below average both offensively and defensively, but not dramatically so.

It's only on paper, but this really does not look like that bad a team, despite the absence of even a second plus hitter.
   21. morineko Posted: November 27, 2009 at 04:54 AM (#3397497)
Is it just me or does this team actually not look so bad?


Well, you could probably drop Correia and his 105 ERA+ right out of there, as many signs indicate that if he doesn't take a lowball offer, he'll be non-tendered. There's also a good chance that Bell may get dumped. The Moores divorce is the gift that keeps on giving to the other 29 teams.
   22. rlc Posted: November 27, 2009 at 07:43 AM (#3397517)
No Radhames Liz?
   23. DCW3 Posted: November 27, 2009 at 07:47 AM (#3397518)
2B Eckstein 87/Fr (is he a free agent?)

Eckstein's signed with San Diego through 2010.
   24. ugen64 Posted: November 28, 2009 at 04:22 AM (#3397888)
rlc - he'll probably get projected with the O's.
   25. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 28, 2009 at 04:46 AM (#3397898)
Yeah, I'm always lagging a bit in posting, so I still had Liz's projection with Baltimore. I'll get all caught up with Thanksgiving week stuff Monday.
   26. DKDC Posted: November 28, 2009 at 04:46 AM (#3397899)
6 top starters by ERA+: 110, 105, 105, 104, 95, 93


Those top 6 starters are projected to only make 118 starts combined for a reason. There's some serious injury risk there, and the Padres are likely going to have to dig a lot deeper than that.

This lineup is somewhat below average both offensively and defensively, but not dramatically so.


All that slightly below average adds up. Compare those OPS+ numbers to league averages, and you have one above average hitter and one above average fielder.

This isn't going to be one of the worst teams in the league, but it's probably a mid 70s win team without much upside.
   27. Shilzzz Posted: November 29, 2009 at 07:07 AM (#3398446)
Tony gwynn is really luis durango's second player comp? As in senior? Struck me as odd
   28. Ken015 Posted: November 29, 2009 at 03:29 PM (#3398519)
I am curious how DeHoyos might do if he actually saw some time in SD.
   29. Ken015 Posted: November 29, 2009 at 03:37 PM (#3398523)
Also, nice projection for Quezada even though he didn't pitch last season. I never could find an article on what type of injury he had, does anyone know?
   30. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 29, 2009 at 03:48 PM (#3398527)
I'll add the requests for the next build.

Durango's second comp is the lesser Gwynn.
   31. Saberseams Posted: December 03, 2009 at 03:15 PM (#3401955)
I'd be interested to see a projection for Sawyer Carroll. I would think he'd at least get a cup o' coffee next year in the show.
   32. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 28, 2010 at 03:15 AM (#3448393)
Hey Dan, I know you're busy but I'd be curious to see your take on the Kouzmanoff/Hairston deal. Thanks!

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