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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, January 07, 2010

2010 ZiPS Projections - San Francisco Giants

You get your hands on a Ferrari GT 250 from the 1950s.  You painstakingly restore the car to its original form, from tires to roof.  Now, it’s time to get the engine up to snuff.

Something’s not quite right!  So, you put in an engine you found in a 1984 Dodge Dart at the junk yard and after doing your best to install the engine, using duct tape, honey, and twist ties from packages of hot dog rolls, that darn car just will not start!  What’s the problem?  You have no idea.

You might not be a very good mechanic, but you might be Brian Sabean.  The Giants have a ridiculous starting rotation, anchored by Lincecum, perhaps the leading candidate for best starting pitcher of the teens, Cain, one of the best number twos around, one of the best prospects around in Bumgarner, and the interesting Sanchez.  Sure, Zito’s overpaid, but if he’s your 5th starter, your rotation’s probably pretty good.

The offense is not, mainly consisting of Sandoval and the Seven Dwarves.  A team mediocre everywhere and a playoff-ready rotation just screams to overpay for an actual slugger, but Mark DeRosa appears to have been the big target, though the team could still figure out a way to avoid using their best prospect, Buster Posey.  My policy of leaving players on their old team until a definite signing (or the final disk in the spring) has the hilarious side-effect of showing what an amazing idea it was to non-tender Ryan Garko because he had a slump.

No projection for Angel Villalona.  Now, a lot of things can go wrong with a prospect’s career from low-A to the majors, but being arrested for homicide is not a common malady.  If you’re a professional athlete and absolutely feel you need to kill someone, it’s smarter to make the pile first.  Better lawyers.

Offensive Projections

Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Pablo Sandoval#      3b 23 .320 .368 .516 157 597 85 191 43 4 22 110 44 81 2 2   129
Ryan Garko           1b 29 .285 .356 .460 129 435 44 124 23 1 17 67 34 71 0 0   113
Fred Lewis*          lf 29 .274 .352 .427 129 391 68 107 22 7 8 46 44 98 9 4   104
Mark DeRosa         3b 35 .273 .345 .434 121 433 63 118 24 2 14 73 44 88 2 1   104
Nate Schierholtz*      rf 26 .289 .325 .459 131 425 55 123 27 6 11 62 20 68 4 2   103
John Bowker*        lf 26 .269 .338 .434 137 475 62 128 25 4 15 76 47 100 4 3   102
Aaron Rowand         cf 32 .273 .335 .431 132 476 59 130 31 1 14 72 32 104 3 1   100
Buster Posey         c   23 .263 .343 .398 126 467 67 123 25 1 12 67 53 83 3 1   95
Freddy Sanchez       2b 32 .296 .331 .413 126 506 72 150 32 3 7 60 25 67 1 1   92
Edgar Renteria       ss 33 .280 .336 .388 116 443 55 124 23 2 7 52 38 63 6 2   90
Juan Uribe           3b 30 .269 .311 .442 122 398 43 107 24 3 13 58 24 77 1 2   95
Travis Ishikawa*      1b 26 .253 .316 .409 125 403 50 102 21 3 12 63 34 107 2 1   89
Matt Downs           2b 26 .273 .317 .407 118 472 63 129 29 2 10 67 27 67 8 4   89
Jesus Guzman         1b 26 .271 .320 .395 120 479 55 130 23 3 10 64 31 87 1 2   87
Bengie Molina         c   35 .271 .298 .424 117 432 38 117 22 1 14 80 15 49 0 0   87
Kevin Frandsen       2b 28 .271 .328 .380 127 421 53 114 21 2 7 48 23 40 4 3   86
Andres Torres#        cf 32 .254 .315 .397 107 343 50 87 15 8 6 36 29 88 9 3   86
Rich Aurilia         1b 38 .266 .312 .393 83 214 18 57 10 1 5 32 15 34 0 0   84
Stephen Holm         c   30 .253 .320 .373 79 233 25 59 13 0 5 23 21 45 0 0   82
Ryan Rohlinger       3b 26 .254 .315 .382 132 484 60 123 28 2 10 70 36 89 2 2   83
Eugenio Velez#        lf 28 .266 .309 .393 128 448 62 119 23 8 6 54 27 78 20 9   83
Joe Borchard#        rf 31 .234 .298 .397 92 282 36 66 15 2 9 42 24 76 1 1   81
Brett Pill           1b 25 .258 .300 .381 132 504 60 130 30 1 10 83 28 86 3 2   78
Clay Timpner*        cf 27 .265 .312 .361 123 441 53 117 19 4 5 47 29 62 7 6   77
Conor Gillaspie*      3b 22 .254 .321 .331 133 508 55 129 26 2 3 62 49 80 1 2   73
Emmanuel Burriss#      2b 25 .270 .323 .332 106 371 52 100 13 2 2 34 25 49 23 9   73
Roger Kieschnick*      rf 23 .234 .281 .385 137 546 68 128 28 6 14 86 33 149 4 1   73
Darren Ford         cf 24 .231 .303 .318 115 446 70 103 17 5 4 41 44 121 25 10   64
Eli Whiteside         c   30 .241 .281 .357 77 241 24 58 11 1 5 32 11 59 1 1   67
Francisco Peguero     cf 22 .248 .276 .323 92 371 40 92 13 3 3 38 12 79 13 3   57

Defensive Projections

Name           CThr 1b     2b     3b     ss     lf     cf     rf    
Sandoval#      Fr   Av/89       Fr/95                      
Garko             Av/81                                  
Lewis*                                  Vg/141 Pr/167 Av/141
DeRosa             Av/78   Fr/115 Av/93       Av/78       Av/78  
Schierholtz*                              Av/83       Av/83  
Bowker*            Av/142                 Av/112 Pr/134 Av/98  
Rowand                                       Av/89      
Posey         Vg                                      
Sanchez                 Av/86                            
Renteria                           Fr/100                
Uribe                   Av/74   Av/96   Av/96                  
Ishikawa*          Vg/123                                
Downs             Av/117 Av/117 Av/117 Pr/133 Av/117       Av/117
Guzman             Av/117 Pr/185 Pr/166       Av/117            
Molina         Av                                      
Frandsen                 Av/111 Av/111 Fr/139 Av/120       Av/120
Torres#                                Vg/126 Av/44   Vg/115
Aurilia           Av/101       Fr/113                      
Holm           Fr                                      
Rohlinger                     Vg/97                      
Velez#                  Pr/160             Vg/186 Av/179      
Super Joe#                              Av/119       Av/119
Pill             Av/112                                
Timpner*                                Av/125 Av/125 Av/125
Gillaspie*                    Av/151                      
Burriss#                Vg/144       Av/138                
Kieschnick*                                        Av/79  
Ford                                         Av/183      
Whiteside       Av                                      
Peguero                                       Vg/159 Vg/134

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name           PO   EX   VG   AV   FR   PO       COMP 1       COMP 2       COMP 3
SandovalPablo     3B   53%  33%  10%  3%  1%LindstromFreddie   RamirezAramis LansfordCarney
GarkoRyan       1B   7%  24%  27%  32%  10%    SheetsLarry   MorelandKeith   JohnsonLamar
SchierholtzNate   RF   5%  14%  21%  31%  29%    GloadRoss     BassKevin   CarterSteve
LewisFred       LF   5%  17%  23%  31%  24%      BumbryAl   TuckerMichael   BarrettJohnny
DeRosaMark       3B   10%  23%  29%  25%  13%      BoyerKen     GarnerPhil   DeCincesDoug
RowandAaron     CF   13%  19%  33%  26%  9%    AllenEthan   BrandtJackie   WilliamsDick
BowkerJohn       LF   2%  10%  19%  33%  37%  SpilborghsRyan   HughesKeith   TuckerMichael
SanchezFreddy     2B   11%  14%  21%  28%  26%    AdairJerryGrudzielanekMark   TrilloManny
PoseyBuster       C   6%  37%  35%  20%  2%    SuzukiKurt     RamosJohn       SaxDave
UribeJuan       3B   2%  10%  19%  32%  37%    TrubyChris     FelizPedro   SeabolScott
RenteriaEdgar     SS   10%  17%  32%  26%  15%  FletcherScott   UrbanskiBilly     RojekStan
DownsMatt       2B   4%  10%  18%  33%  35% PhillipsBrandon   LansingMike GarrisonWebster
MolinaBengie     C   3%  16%  29%  35%  17%    LyonsBarry       DiazBo     BooneBob
IshikawaTravis   1B   0%  1%  3%  25%  72%    JacksonRyan LankfordDerrick     DeedsDoug
TorresAndres     CF   1%  5%  22%  43%  29%  WebsterMitch     MorenoOmar     LittleMark
GuzmanJesus     1B   0%  0%  1%  15%  83%      BelkTim   JacksonRyan   TolentinoJose
FrandsenKevin     2B   2%  5%  12%  29%  52%    HajekDaveWhiteheadBurgess StennettRennie
VelezEugenio     LF   0%  1%  3%  11%  85%      SmithIra     VarshoGary   MartinezManny
AuriliaRich     1B   0%  0%  1%  12%  87%    JordanBrian     WoodJason   PhilleyDave
HolmSteve       C   1%  8%  24%  45%  22%    TackettJeff   BennettGary   McDonaldKeith
RohlingerRyan     3B   0%  1%  5%  23%  71%    AlfaroJason   GrindellNate   SeitzerBrad
PillBrett       1B   0%  0%  0%  5%  95%  NavarreteRay     WestJeremy   McGowanSean
BorchardJoe     RF   0%  1%  1%  7%  91%    HowittDann   BufordDamon     SmithMark
BurrissEmmanuel   2B   0%  0%  2%  12%  86%  CastroBernieMachadoAlejandro ReynoldsHarold
TimpnerClay     CF   0%  1%  2%  12%  85%  SchumakerSkip   EllisonJason   GlanvilleDoug
KieschnickRoger   RF   0%  0%  0%  2%  98%      MartinAl     PoeCharles   HamiltonJon
GillaspieConor   3B   0%  0%  0%  3%  97%  CiofronePeter     AybarWilly   BaldirisAarom
WhitesideEli     C   0%  0%  2%  13%  85%  MosqueraJulio   CharlesFrank   ColbertCraig
FordDarren       CF   0%  0%  0%  5%  95%    CurryMike     DuncanJeff   ScottLorenzo
PegueroFrancisco   CF   0%  0%  0%  2%  98%  HaynesNathan   McGeeWillie     MoranJavon

Name         .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B 30 HR   30 SB
SandovalPablo       79%    36%    61%    27%    43%    2%    15%    0%
GarkoRyan         29%    24%    16%    5%    0%    0%    3%    0%
SchierholtzNate     36%    4%    13%    2%    1%    12%    0%    0%
LewisFred         17%    20%    5%    2%    0%    19%    0%    0%
DeRosaMark         18%    15%    9%    3%    0%    0%    1%    0%
RowandAaron       16%    7%    7%    1%    4%    0%    1%    0%
BowkerJohn         11%    7%    4%    1%    0%    3%    1%    0%
SanchezFreddy       42%    6%    3%    1%    4%    0%    0%    0%
PoseyBuster         5%    9%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
UribeJuan         12%    1%    10%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%
RenteriaEdgar       23%    8%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
DownsMatt         14%    1%    1%    0%    1%    0%    0%    0%
MolinaBengie       18%    1%    10%    0%    0%    0%    2%    0%
IshikawaTravis       3%    1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
TorresAndres       6%    3%    2%    0%    0%    32%    0%    0%
GuzmanJesus       10%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
FrandsenKevin       13%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
VelezEugenio       8%    0%    0%    0%    0%    32%    0%    4%
AuriliaRich       20%    5%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HolmSteve         8%    4%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
RohlingerRyan       2%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%    0%
PillBrett         3%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%    0%
BorchardJoe         1%    1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BurrissEmmanuel     11%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    12%
TimpnerClay         7%    1%    0%    0%    0%    2%    0%    0%
KieschnickRoger     0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    10%    0%    0%
GillaspieConor       1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
WhitesideEli       3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
FordDarren         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    4%    0%    24%
PegueroFrancisco     2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Tim Lincecum         26   2.68 16   6 34 33   225.0 177   67 13   78 260 162
Matt Cain           25   3.51 13   9 34 34   217.2 197   85 20   80 179 124
Madison Bumgarner*      20   4.05   8   6 28 26   133.1 137   60 12   42   86 107
Jonathan Sanchez*      27   4.15 10 11 30 28   156.0 141   72 17   77 169 105
Randy Johnson*        46   4.33   6   8 21 20   114.1 116   55 17   32   98 100
Barry Zito*          32   4.48 11 14 32 32   184.2 183   92 21   83 132   97
Ramon Ortiz           34   4.77   5   8 33 17   126.1 137   67 17   39   83   91
Kevin Pucetas         25   4.80   6 10 28 27   144.1 161   77 16   46   74   91
Joe Martinez         27   5.16   5   9 24 21   111.2 134   64 12   38   64   84
Henry Sosa           24   5.37   2   4 15 14   63.2   72   38   9   31   36   81
Matt Kinney           33   5.55   6 13 27 26   146.0 167   90 28   48   97   78
Clayton Tanner*        22   5.72   6 13 26 24   122.2 146   78 17   62   68   76
Steve Hammond*        28   6.24   6 16 29 27   145.2 178 101 27   69   78   70
Steve Johnson         22   6.93   4 16 27 25   124.2 149   96 28   83   83   63

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Sergio Romo           27   3.21   5   3 52   0   53.1   44   19   5   19   54 136
Brian Wilson         28   3.47   5   3 67   0   70.0   61   27   5   30   72 125
Jeremy Affeldt*        31   3.48   2   1 74   0   64.2   56   25   5   29   58 125
Eugene Espineli*      27   4.08   3   3 54   0   64.0   69   29   5   19   36 107
Alex Hinshaw*        27   4.10   2   2 60   0   59.1   50   27   6   37   64 106
Osiris Matos         25   4.52   2   3 49   0   61.2   65   31   7   22   45   96
Brandon Medders       30   4.65   3   4 59   0   69.2   71   36   8   37   51   93
Dan Runzler*          25   4.72   2   3 55   0   55.1   51   29   6   41   53   92
Waldis Joaquin         23   4.76   3   5 53   0   62.1   63   33   5   39   48   91
Merkin Valdez         28   5.04   1   2 42   1   44.2   47   25   5   26   35   86
Steve Palazzolo       28   5.22   2   4 33   0   50.0   54   29   6   28   32   83

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player         PO     TOP   MID   BOT         COMP 1         COMP 2         COMP 3
LincecumTim     SP     99%  1%  0%  BlackwellEwell       RijoJose   PascualCamilo
RomoSergio       RP     64%  32%  4%      JenksBobby       DavisRon     LeskanicCurt
WilsonBrian     RP     59%  35%  5%      WardDuane     RadatzDick       SelmaDick
AffeldtJeremy     RP     50%  43%  7% ChristiansenJason     LaRocheDave     OroscoJesse
CainMatt       SP     85%  15%  0%      SeleAaron     LeaCharlie     MillerWade
BumgarnerMadison   SP     47%  47%  6%      MulderMark       DukeZach     TroutSteve
EspineliEugene   RP     24%  51%  25%      MeauxRyan     JeffcoatMike     CasianLarry
HinshawAlex     RP     24%  54%  22%    WilliamsMitch   AlmanzaArmando     WagnerBilly
SanchezJonathan   SP     44%  48%  7%    LangstonMark     JohnsonRandy     KoufaxSandy
JohnsonRandy     SP     29%  49%  22%    KoosmanJerry     WellsDavid     FinleyChuck
ZitoBarry       SP     18%  62%  20%    BohanonBrian   AlvarezWilson     HamptonMike
MatosOsiris     RP     10%  49%  41%    MabeusChris   PattersonDave     AcevedoJose
MeddersBrandon   RP     8%  42%  51%    DoughertyJim   SaladinMiguel   GryboskiKevin
RunzlerDan       RP     9%  42%  50%  AlmanzaArmando     ClarkeStan     JohnsonTyler
JoaquinWaldis     RP     8%  39%  54%    VasquezCarlos     WigginsScott     JacksonGrant
OrtizRamon       SP     18%  43%  40%    SparksSteve       RossMark     YoshiiMasato
PucetasKevin     SP     9%  55%  36%      JohnsonJoe   FireovidSteve       BeggChris
ValdezMerkin     RP     5%  25%  70%      SmithRoy     ReichertDan   HendersonRyan
MartinezJoe     SP     5%  39%  56%    SorensenLary     MoehlerBrian MacdonaldMichael
PalazzoloSteve   RP     3%  24%  73%      GreenSean   VaughanWilliam       BauerGreg
SosaHenry       SP     4%  26%  70%      MilackiBob   JacobsenLandon       KylesStan
KinneyMatt       SP     2%  19%  79%  MartinezDennis     HellingRick   TollbergBrian
TannerClayton     SP     0%  13%  87%      GramanAlex     KozlowskiBen     GeorgeChris
HammondSteven     SP     0%  2%  98%    ProchaskaMike       TeutNate     RobertsChris
JohnsonSteven     SP     0%  0%  100%    BaylissJonah   KnightBrandon     RomanoMike

Player         130 ERA+  100 ERA+  K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9

<1
LincecumTim 91% 100% 97% 1% 99%
RomoSergio 56% 92% 76% 7% 80%
WilsonBrian 52% 93% 85% 1% 91%
AffeldtJeremy 50% 91% 48% 0% 83%
CainMatt 43% 98% 20% 0% 82%
BumgarnerMadison 13% 72% 1% 5% 80%
EspineliEugene 19% 69% 1% 20% 87%
HinshawAlex 24% 66% 90% 0% 72%
SanchezJonathan 13% 73% 91% 0% 61%
JohnsonRandy 7% 51% 37% 17% 29%
ZitoBarry 2% 42% 4% 0% 57%
MatosOsiris 10% 52% 5% 4% 59%
MeddersBrandon 5% 36% 5% 0% 59%
RunzlerDan 6% 36% 71% 0% 64%
JoaquinWaldis 5% 39% 12% 0% 83%
OrtizRamon 5% 34% 7% 15% 38%
PucetasKevin 1% 28% 0% 4% 55%
ValdezMerkin 3% 23% 15% 0% 63%
MartinezJoe 0% 16% 0% 3% 62%
PalazzoloSteve 2% 21% 1% 0% 61%
SosaHenry 1% 12% 0% 0% 40%
KinneyMatt 0% 5% 2% 3% 5%
TannerClayton 0% 2% 0% 0% 32%
HammondSteven 0% 0% 0% 0% 4%
JohnsonSteven 0% 0% 1% 0% 1%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player         W   L   S   ERA     G   GS   IP     H   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
CainMatt       186   157   0 3.68   518   516 3285   2944   336   1291   2750   118
LincecumTim     198   85   0 3.25   441   437 2913   2335   196   1067   3331   134
SanchezJonathan   99   114   0 4.48   358   292 1639   1513   184   845   1759   97
ZitoBarry       193   179   0 4.11   496   494 2988   2767   324   1294   2215   107

Name           BA OBP SLG   G   AB     R     H   2B 3B   HR RBI   BB   SO SB CS OPS+
RenteriaEdgar   .283 .340 .394 2293 8760   1261   2477 469 28 150 1015   769   1244 290 110   92
SanchezFreddy   .294 .329 .409 1072 4098   544   1204 258 23   56 488   200   506 13 10   93
RowandAaron     .274 .334 .435 1660 5583   757   1529 347 18 172 753   357   1182 68 28   98

All figures in % based on projection playing time

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

 

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Indians

Mariners

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees




These projections were sponsored in part by:

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Dan Szymborski Posted: January 07, 2010 at 05:56 AM | 131 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 08, 2010 at 12:14 AM (#3431418)
Actually, this reminds me a lot of some angry emails I got about Dan Murphy's projection.

The same arguments - OH MY GOD CANT YOU SEE HE CLICKED! And HES CLEARLY A SPECIAL PLAYER THAT NERDS DON'T UNDERSTAND (Not you, Sam). Turns out he wasn't a 313/397/473 guy after all!
   102. zenbitz Posted: January 08, 2010 at 12:27 AM (#3431428)
You nerds don't understand the power of the human spirit.

Brock clearly has no less than a 1 in 100,000,000,000 chance of hitting 60 HRs next year.
   103. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 08, 2010 at 12:31 AM (#3431434)
Seriously, you guys should see some of the e-mails I get. If I wasn't already behind on things I need to do, I'd do a regular Reader Mailbag feature.
   104. JPWF13 Posted: January 08, 2010 at 12:42 AM (#3431440)
The less said about the whole Daniel Murphy thing, the better . . . .


You know, now he's going to hit .290/.350/.475....

I remember one of the old Bill James abstracts, where he mentioned that he projected someone to hit .220, the dude hit .280, James said he was wrong, but the next year (and every year after) the guy hit .220 or less...

Then came Rob Deer, who hit .232/.336/.494, and James said, "nope, not falling for it, if he could hit .232 he'd be useful, but he's going to hit .180...

A couple years later James said, OK I give up, he improved, he's better than he was in the minors, Deer immediately cratered and hovered around the mendoza line for the rest of his career.
   105. xanthan Posted: January 08, 2010 at 12:52 AM (#3431448)
Brock's 265/344/334 is actually a bit better than I expected. I don't know if that's a bad thing or not.
   106. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: January 08, 2010 at 12:59 AM (#3431452)
first of all fausto carmona is on great pitcher look at his wins and era and 2007 with cleveland. so in one year became on the a-list of pitchers and fausto is in demand now, now he is going to the hall of fame with home run king adrian beltre. and he also worked with sabathia and cliff lee who was great by the way. and tim belcher on his fastball. so he worked with alot of great pitchers. and was great in the minors. and fausto was the best thing on the team and the critics agree. so fausto is a way better pitcher then matt cain. im responding to the post from dan about at least matt cain has some experience under his belt but fausto is hotter and a better pitcher and he is getting alot more awards then matt. so please did you see matts last game against the padres. need i say more the game sucked as hell and even the critics said the worst pitching of the century. it only had 20 thousand fans in the stadium now thats sad.
   107. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: January 08, 2010 at 06:03 AM (#3431565)
The early part of this thread reminds me of one of my favorite mgl rants (of which there are many):

I’ve mentioned this before, but if a guy hits .850 (in a league where the average player hits .750) in his first year (or in any year, and that’s all we know), and he gets better in talent (say by 20 OPS points), how many teams do you think understand that he is supposed to hit around .820 the next year, a “regression” of 30 points?

For those of you who are just casual readers, let me repeat that: If a player hits .850 (OPS) his first year and we KNOW (G-d comes down and tells us) that his true talent is going to increase the next year by 20 points (maybe because he is on the up-slope of his aging curve, like Martin presumably is, but it doesn’t matter why), then we expect him to hit around:

.820 the next year. Yes, we expect that a player who gets better in true talent will hit 30 points less than he hit the year before!


You know, I never forgot the lesson.
   108. Mess with the Meat, you get the Wad! Posted: January 08, 2010 at 06:18 AM (#3431572)
dan i hope you charge tropic of cancer lots of money for the dmb build discs
   109. EddieA Posted: January 08, 2010 at 06:29 AM (#3431574)
I saw the Bond projection in 100 and thought "Barry would be better than that"
   110. Walt Davis Posted: January 08, 2010 at 06:47 AM (#3431579)
Bond's odds of hitting 60 home runs in 2010:

1 in 1,751,072,931,543,390


Dan, you need to watch him play!! The real odds are about 1 in 32.
   111. Walt Davis Posted: January 08, 2010 at 06:52 AM (#3431582)
I remember one of the old Bill James abstracts,

Or BPro who kept calling for Marcus Giles to get more playing time. He gets some and kinda stinks and there might have been rumors of attitude problems too. So for the 2003 BPro, they finally give in and admit Cox is smarter than they are. And of course he goes out and rips the cover off the ball.
   112. Shock Posted: January 08, 2010 at 08:57 AM (#3431603)

Seriously, you guys should see some of the e-mails I get. If I wasn't already behind on things I need to do, I'd do a regular Reader Mailbag feature.


Getting angry at the maker of a projection system because you don't like a projection of a particular player seems awfully strange to me -- but it's been a strange thread.

Keep 'em coming Dan; can't wait to see Vernon Wells's projection! (groan)
   113. ColonelTom Posted: January 08, 2010 at 03:55 PM (#3431735)
Letting Garko go was sheer idiocy, given the Giants' weaknesses at 1B and the outfield corners. (On a related note, Garko should probably have some sort of DMB defensive ratings in LF and RF.)
   114. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 08, 2010 at 04:03 PM (#3431741)
Is 'sad face' a rating?
   115. ColonelTom Posted: January 08, 2010 at 04:18 PM (#3431764)
Better than the ROFL smiley for Adam Dunn, I suppose.
   116. FirstInning Posted: January 08, 2010 at 09:38 PM (#3432154)
Dan, any idea what Tony Pena Jr is going to do? I'm one of the few people who saw his relief appearance a couple of years ago and I must say I'm intrigued. He could end up in the pen if a lot of things break right.
   117. Unintentionally_Ignorant Posted: January 09, 2010 at 02:54 PM (#3432708)
ZiPS reports a lot of wacky things. Bond's odds of hitting 60 home runs in 2010:

1 in 1,751,072,931,543,390


So, you're saying there's a chance!
   118. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 09, 2010 at 04:19 PM (#3432730)
ZiPS reports a lot of wacky things. Bond's odds of hitting 60 home runs in 2010:

1 in 1,751,072,931,543,390


Dan, how do you get that result? Clearly you're not running 1751 trillion simulations of the season. If you are running simulations, I can't imagine a PC could handle more than 1 million and still deliver results in a timely fashion.

Why are you getting such "precise" results?
   119. Mushroy Posted: January 09, 2010 at 06:06 PM (#3432762)
Hey Dan-thanks again for ZiPS.
I've been mulling this over for a long time and I wanted to ask you-how much effort do you put into predicting W's? Does ZiPS project it based entirely on the projected peripherals and IP or is the team offense and defense included somehow? I've always operated on the assumption that you wouldn't devote too much energy to such an unpredictable stat, but I'd love to know how much does go into it.

Along the same lines, does anybody have any thoughts on what stats you would look at to predict a high (or higher) winning percentage? I'm trying to rank teams based on how much they're projected to help their SP's get wins but there are so many variables. (Obviously this is a fantasy question-I'm in a 5x5 where a lot of us tend to value players similarly so I'm looking for some new tricks with some of the luckier categories).
Thanks again.
   120. SABRJoe Posted: January 11, 2010 at 04:47 AM (#3433675)
According to San Fran CBS:

"SOURCE: GIANTS SIGN AUBREY HUFF
Quick blog here...got a tip from a source that the Giants have signed left-handed first baseman Aubrey Huff to a one-year, $3 million contract. That will almost surely set the Giants line-up for 2010 with Pablo remaining at third base. Kim Coyle reported yesterday that the Giants were still talking with Adam LaRoche, but my source now says that deal is dead, but can't say for sure. Huff stumbled last season to .241, 15, 85, but if he can return to his numbers of 2008 (32, 108, .304) this could be a steal. Stay tuned."


DeRosa to LF?
   121. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 11, 2010 at 05:14 AM (#3433691)
Why are you getting such "precise" results?

Well, it's not really that precise, but if there's a chance that, for example, so-and-so develops into a "true" 40 home-run hitter, there's a range of probabilities around that (which ZiPS looks for), even if a 60 home-run season is never the mean projection.
   122. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 11, 2010 at 05:21 AM (#3433695)
I've been mulling this over for a long time and I wanted to ask you-how much effort do you put into predicting W's? Does ZiPS project it based entirely on the projected peripherals and IP or is the team offense and defense included somehow? I've always operated on the assumption that you wouldn't devote too much energy to such an unpredictable stat, but I'd love to know how much does go into it.


Wins are very volatile.

Previous years run totals regressed towards mean is a pretty good predictor of team offense. Number of seasons tend to be predictive (bullpen quality is a big fact, obviously, but decisions are also a residue of endurance, which tends to be predictive).

Win totals for starters work similarly to teams, though the exponent is higher.
   123. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: January 11, 2010 at 04:28 PM (#3433861)
Saw Neal in the Fall League at Strasburg's first start and he had an outstanding game.

1. Looks like he's got a very strong throwing arm.

2. After Strasburg clowned several hitters backdooring that slurve thing of his, Neal kept his hands back and roped it into left field for a hit.

3. Made a couple of outstanding running catches in left and nearly made a third.

Now one game is one game and I'm not about to change policies on evaluating players from one game. But just from a standard stat geek perspective, when you see how much he hit, your first concern would be his defensive ability. And it sure looked like that it wasn't an issue for him.

Sabean really confuses me as his organization seems to do all the difficult things well, and can't seem to do the easy thing which is put together a reasonable offense. A little known fact was that he was scheduled to be one of the guys at the infamous stats/scouts roundtable but pulled out. Pat Gillick was there as an observer but didn't participate.
   124. zenbitz Posted: January 11, 2010 at 10:35 PM (#3434480)
Sabean really confuses me as his organization seems to do all the difficult things well, and can't seem to do the easy thing which is put together a reasonable offense.


I think this can be explained in a very simple way. Sabean uses BA instead of OBP. Sometimes he will end up getting guys with a decent OBP because they have high batting averages, and sometimes he will get guys with decent walk rates by sheer chance (Durham, Burks, a few others over the years).

Notice also that the Giants pitching staffs over the last several years have been near the top in walks allowed - no matter if their pitching has been good or bad overall. I suspect, but cannot proove - that there is an organizational philosophy around "nibbling" rather than challenging hitters.

It's obvious on the offensive side, that the organization values aggressive hackers.

I have a feeling that having Bonds getting thousands of walks, often in weak lineups has colored his position on this. Know Sabeans' media personality a bit, I wouldn't be surprised if he thinks this is a major competitive advantage.
   125. Steve Phillips' Hot Cougar (DrStankus) Posted: January 12, 2010 at 07:56 PM (#3435619)
I have a feeling that having Bonds getting thousands of walks, often in weak lineups has colored his position on this. Know Sabeans' media personality a bit, I wouldn't be surprised if he thinks this is a major competitive advantage.


Are you saying that Sabean learned that Bonds getting walks was what lead to the weak lineups? And thus should be avoided?
   126. zenbitz Posted: January 12, 2010 at 11:54 PM (#3436025)
I think he saw a situation where people would take the bat out of the hands of his best player - often his only good hitter (obviously, the Kent years were one of the exceptions).

And I think that while most analysis indicates that he was walked "too much" opposing managers kept walking him - hence it must have been a good strategy - hence walks are overrated. It's really more of a gut feeling on my part more than anything tangible.

GM Psychoanalysis - worst blog idea evah?
   127. Steve Phillips' Hot Cougar (DrStankus) Posted: January 12, 2010 at 11:59 PM (#3436030)
No worse than doing Kremlinology. :)

Clearly, Sabean doesn't know the value of the walk. It would be pretty amusing (in a tragic way, since I'm a Giants fan), that Sabean's exposure to one of the greatest batters of all time, who had no problem using the walk as a weapon reinforced his view that walks are not great outcomes.
   128. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: January 15, 2010 at 09:34 AM (#3438186)
This thread was hilarious.
   129. Mike Emeigh Posted: January 15, 2010 at 02:23 PM (#3438209)
It would be pretty amusing (in a tragic way, since I'm a Giants fan), that Sabean's exposure to one of the greatest batters of all time, who had no problem using the walk as a weapon reinforced his view that walks are not great outcomes.


Actually, it's not at all surprising. The Giants, for the most part, did a poor job of leveraging Bonds's walks into runs, and the lesson someone might take from that is that walks tend to be issued in situations where they are far less valuable than statistical analysis would have you believe. (Ripple effects from walks, e.g. extra PAs for your better hitters, are not often considered in that context.)

-- MWE
   130. Zoppity Zoop Posted: June 04, 2010 at 03:20 PM (#3550316)
Looks like ZiPS is doing better than the Allied Runzler League so far.
   131. The Essex Snead Posted: August 30, 2010 at 08:39 PM (#3630181)
Hey Dan Runzler! 19 BBs in 30 IP! He's still got it!
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