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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, December 26, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Seattle Mariners

With the Angels losing some important pieces and the Mariners wheeling and dealing to add Cliff Lee and taking a chance on Milton Bradley, the Mariners are really looking like the favorite in the AL West.

The M’s aren’t a perfect team, however, so one can’t count the Angels out.  Seattle has an impressive defense, but the team really misses that one big bat in the middle of the lineup.  Bradley has an amazing 2008 season with the Rangers, but he can hardly be counted on to repeat that in 2010, even if he’s a model citizen.  Another big bullpen arm would also be a huge bonus, but at this point, the M’s look like a team that’ll finish 1st in ERA (which they did without Cliff Lee), 10th-12th in runs scored, and hope to edge out the Angels or sneak a Wild Card spot with 92-95 wins or so.

However, the winter isn’t done yet and while the Mariners don’t appear to be one of Jason Bay’s super-secret suitors, they could still make a move for a big bat.  Nothing’s been rumored, but the Mariners landing Cliff Lee came out of nowhere.

Even if the Mariners don’t make the playoffs, Jack Zduriencik and Company turning an organization run on the basis of the thoughts of Buzzie’s Other Idiot Son into a legitimate contender in a year is a mighty impressive achievement.

Offensive Projections

Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Ichiro Suzuki*        rf 36 .325 .368 .414 132 570 82 185 22 4 7 44 37 66 24 5   110
Milton Bradley#      rf 32 .254 .371 .421 106 347 54 88 17 1 13 42 60 91 4 2   113
Russell Branyan*      1b 34 .227 .329 .463 105 326 46 74 15 1 20 58 46 123 1 0   110
Chone Figgins#        3b 32 .280 .373 .362 127 497 85 139 21 4 4 41 75 99 36 14   99
Adrian Beltre         3b 31 .264 .315 .426 120 477 63 126 27 1 16 73 33 84 6 1   97
Dustin Ackley*        2b 22 .261 .348 .383 115 494 83 129 21 3 11 62 63 82 12 7   96
Mike Sweeney         dh 36 .266 .327 .402 69 229 23 61 13 0 6 35 18 32 0 0   94
Franklin Gutierrez     cf 27 .266 .324 .408 135 466 64 124 22 1 14 56 37 108 8 3   95
Jose Lopez           2b 26 .275 .308 .430 150 589 69 162 33 2 18 86 26 69 2 2   96
Chris Shelton         3b 30 .243 .324 .374 117 428 51 104 21 1 11 62 50 123 1 1   87
Mike Carp*          1b 24 .240 .325 .365 137 509 58 122 24 2 12 63 58 130 0 1   85
Ken Griffey Jr. *      dh 40 .214 .320 .372 105 355 40 76 18 1 12 55 55 79 0 0   85
Michael Saunders*      lf 23 .252 .309 .397 114 401 69 101 16 3 12 38 31 106 7 3   88
Brad Nelson*        dh 27 .239 .310 .386 130 415 52 99 20 1 13 61 43 96 4 3   86
Ryan Langerhans*      lf 30 .224 .324 .369 130 331 49 74 17 2 9 46 48 107 4 3   86
Endy Chavez*        lf 32 .275 .322 .356 99 247 28 68 10 2 2 22 18 30 7 2   82
Kenji Johjima         c   34 .254 .298 .385 97 335 32 85 17 0 9 42 15 36 1 1   82
Rob Johnson         c   26 .266 .316 .356 123 455 50 121 23 0 6 47 32 68 6 5   81
Bryan LaHair*        1b 27 .239 .300 .379 129 494 56 118 25 1 14 69 42 141 0 2   81
Adam Moore           c   26 .251 .304 .356 117 447 43 112 21 1 8 55 29 99 0 1   77
Jack Hannahan*        3b 30 .221 .312 .342 131 412 44 91 21 1 9 51 53 128 2 2   76
Matt Tuiasosopo       3b 24 .221 .303 .349 96 375 55 83 19 1 9 48 38 126 2 0   75
Callix Crabbe#        2b 27 .242 .326 .327 116 392 55 95 16 4 3 37 47 66 9 7   76
Jack Wilson         ss 32 .251 .299 .345 109 391 47 98 20 1 5 47 25 50 2 2   72
Bill Hall           3b 30 .212 .280 .365 130 419 54 89 23 1 13 64 39 146 2 2   72
Josh Wilson         ss 29 .234 .296 .337 113 350 39 82 17 2 5 40 25 71 5 3   70
Carlos Triunfel       ss 20 .260 .301 .338 56 231 27 60 10 1 2 23 12 37 8 4   71
Guillermo Quiroz       c   28 .232 .286 .343 59 181 15 42 8 0 4 24 13 38 0 0   65
Ezequiel Carrera*      cf 23 .239 .315 .304 107 418 56 100 12 3 3 31 43 104 17 9   67
Alex Cintron#        2b 31 .248 .279 .321 78 218 19 54 8 1 2 21   9 38 2 1   61
Oswaldo Navarro       ss 25 .230 .291 .288 122 417 43 96 16 1 2 35 31 98 4 3   56
Greg Halman         cf 22 .182 .235 .314 131 510 53 93 17 1 16 57 26 239 9 4   46

Defensive Projections

Name           CThr 1b     2b     3b     ss     lf     cf     rf    
Ichiro!*                                      Vg/63   Vg/99  
Bradley#                                Fr/119       Fr/119
Branyan*          Av/132       Fr/86                      
Figgins#                Av/120 Vg/91                      
Beltre                       Ex/95                      
Ackley*                Fr/140             Av/100 Fr/100 Vg/100
Sweeney           Pr/121                                
Gutierrez                               Ex/79   Ex/123 Ex/79  
Lopez             Vg/131 Vg/131                            
Shelton           Av/111       Fr/151                      
Carp*            Fr/143                 Pr/145            
Griffey*                                Fr/133 Pr/111 Fr/133
Saunders*                                Vg/122 Av/132 Vg/144
Nelson*            Av/102       Pr/127       Fr/127       Fr/127
Langerhans*                              Vg/44   Fr/110 Vg/44  
Chavez*                                Ex/63   Ex/63   Ex/63  
Johjima         Av                                      
Johnson         Av                                      
LaHair*            Av/89                   Av/44       Av/44  
Moore         Av                                      
Hannahan*          Av/82   Av/98   Vg/82                      
Tuiasosopo               Fr/150 Av/125                      
Crabbe#                Av/139 Av/139       Av/139 Av/164 Av/139
Wilson                             Vg/89                  
Hall                   Fr/125 Vg/104       Av/104            
Wilson                 Av/121 Av/121 Fr/142                
Triunfel                 Av/157       Fr/157                
Quiroz         Av                                      
Carrera*                                Vg/123 Av/167 Vg/123
Cintron#                Fr/85   Fr/85   Fr/85                  
Navarro                 Av/122 Av/122 Av/129                
Halman                                 Av/162 Av/162 Av/162

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name           PO   EX   VG   AV   FR   PO       COMP 1       COMP 2       COMP 3
SuzukiIchiro     RF   22%  34%  20%  14%  9%      RiceSam   SlaughterEnos     BrockLou
BradleyMilton     RF   10%  27%  25%  24%  14%  EstalellaBobby   GrubbJohnny     DrewJ.D.
BranyanRussell   1B   8%  23%  23%  30%  16%    KingmanDave   JohnsonCliff   BalboniSteve
FigginsChone     3B   10%  23%  27%  25%  15%    BufordDon   DillingerBob     GrohHeinie
BeltreAdrian     3B   8%  15%  21%  27%  29%    HaleSammy   CastillaVinny     WallachTim
GutierrezFranklin CF   9%  14%  30%  30%  16%    BarnesJohn     ByrdMarlon   CardenalJose
LopezJose       2B   13%  15%  21%  27%  24%  BaergaCarlos   MazeroskiBill LubratichSteve
SweeneyMike     DH   1%  4%  7%  35%  52%  KluszewskiTed     DropoWalt     WertzVic
AckleyDustin     2B   11%  17%  24%  30%  18%    BrowneJerry   WeeksRickie     OrtizJose
SaundersMichael   LF   0%  2%  5%  16%  76%    BellDerek     TolanBobby   SimmonsNelson
ChavezEndy       LF   0%  2%  4%  11%  84%  BiittnerLarry     MilesDee     OrsulakJoe
SheltonChris     3B   1%  4%  11%  29%  55%  PerezEduardo   LeoneJustin     BallJeff
NelsonBrad       DH   0%  0%  1%  13%  85%      SnowJ.T.  WhiteDerrick StahoviakScott
CarpMike       1B   0%  0%  1%  14%  85%  TraxlerBrian   RogowskiCasey     CoxSteve
JohjimaKenji     C   1%  7%  20%  42%  30%    AlomarSandy   SevereidHank   HemsleyRollie
GriffeyKen       DH   0%  1%  3%  13%  83% YastrzemskiCarl     MusialStan   McCoveyWillie
LangerhansRyan   LF   0%  2%  4%  12%  81% RadmanovichRyan CarpenterBubba   DellucciDavid
LahairBryan     LF   0%  0%  1%  5%  94%  CepickyMatthew     MohrDustan     MoutonLyle
OwensJerry       CF   0%  1%  6%  25%  68%    RobertsDave     GoodwinTom   LewisDarren
MooreAdam       C   0%  3%  10%  37%  50%    GroteJerry     WilsonDan   GilGeronimo
TuiasosopoMatt   3B   0%  0%  1%  8%  91%  EberweinKevin   ThompsonAndy   WiggintonTy
TriunfelCarlos   SS   0%  0%  7%  36%  57%    ThonDickie   SchunkJerry     MejiaOscar
WilsonJack       SS   1%  2%  10%  26%  61%    GomezChris van RossumChris NewsomeSkeeter
CrabbeCallix     2B   0%  0%  2%  11%  87%    YoungEric     CruzJulio       HerrTom
HannahanJack     3B   1%  0%  3%  9%  87%  FribergBernie   GiannelliRay     KlausBilly
JohnsonRob       C   0%  2%  4%  19%  74%    WilsonDan     SpohrerAl     SewellLuke
WilsonJosh       SS   1%  2%  6%  22%  69%    WineBobby     LewisMark     ReesePokey
HallBill       3B   1%  0%  1%  5%  93%    PresleyJim     QuinlanTom     HiattPhil
CarreraEzequiel   CF   0%  0%  1%  6%  93%  BergeronPeter SingletonChris   GreenbergAdam
QuirozGuillermo   C   0%  0%  1%  9%  89%    MelvinBob     KratzErik   HeintzChris
CintronAlex     2B   0%  0%  1%  2%  97%    MalloyMarty     McKayDave     SojoLuis
NavarroOswaldo   SS   0%  0%  1%  2%  97%  AndersonKent       ColeStu   SchmidtAugie
HalmanGregory     CF   0%  0%  0%  0%  100%    MalloryMike   MillerRandall   WilsonPreston

Name         .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB
SuzukiIchiro       80%    43%    3%    5%    0%    2%    0%    26%
BradleyMilton       6%    47%    4%    5%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BranyanRussell       1%    6%    24%    6%    0%    0%    7%    0%
FigginsChone       23%    46%    0%    1%    0%    4%    0%    79%
BeltreAdrian       10%    3%    7%    2%    1%    0%    3%    0%
GutierrezFranklin   11%    3%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
LopezJose         16%    1%    5%    1%    9%    0%    5%    0%
SweeneyMike       16%    8%    3%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
AckleyDustin       6%    14%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
SaundersMichael     3%    1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ChavezEndy         20%    4%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
SheltonChris       2%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
NelsonBrad         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CarpMike           0%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
JohjimaKenji       4%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
GriffeyKen         0%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
LangerhansRyan       0%    4%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
LahairBryan         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
OwensJerry         8%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    24%
MooreAdam         2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
TuiasosopoMatt       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
TriunfelCarlos     10%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
WilsonJack         4%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CrabbeCallix       1%    3%    0%    0%    0%    2%    0%    0%
HannahanJack       1%    2%    1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
JohnsonRob         2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
WilsonJosh         2%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HallBill           1%    0%    1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CarreraEzequiel     1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    1%
QuirozGuillermo     2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CintronAlex         6%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
NavarroOswaldo       1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HalmanGregory       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Felix Hernandez       24   3.02 15   7 34 34   232.2 194   78 19   79 216 144
Erik Bedard*          31   3.12   7   3 18 18   106.2   83   37 11   40 110 143
Cliff Lee*          31   3.42 15   9 33 32   216.0 209   82 19   46 163 128
Ryan Rowland-Smith*    27   4.05   9   8 27 25   164.1 157   74 19   58 102 110
Ian Snell           28   4.41 10 11 34 34   193.2 192   95 20   89 142 101
Yusmeiro Petit         25   4.86   7   9 30 24   124.0 126   67 23   40   83   92
Jason Vargas*        27   4.98   7   9 30 24   141.0 150   78 22   50   86   90
Garrett Olson*        25   5.13   7 11 36 27   149.0 150   85 23   73   98   87
Lucas French*        24   5.29   7 12 29 26   158.1 181   93 22   67   86   84
Gaby Hernandez         24   5.36   7 11 26 26   139.1 153   83 22   56   75   83
Doug Fister           26   5.38   7 11 32 25   147.1 173   88 24   41   79   83
Andrew Baldwin         27   5.40   6 11 31 23   153.1 182   92 24   43   76   83
Dan Cortes           23   5.46   6 11 26 25   125.1 126   76 16   92   84   82
Chris Seddon*        26   5.60   6 12 28 27   141.1 155   88 25   71   78   80
Ryan Feierabend*      24   5.62   4   7 19 18   97.2 119   61 15   34   49   79
Luis Munoz           28   6.22   5 13 28 26   136.0 158   94 27   69   71   72

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
David Aardsma         28   3.61   5   3 64   0   67.1   55   27   7   35   70 124
Mark Lowe           27   3.82   5   4 72   0   80.0   73   34   8   32   66 117
Mike Koplove         33   4.10   3   3 50   0   59.1   56   27   6   27   41 109
Brandon Morrow         25   4.15   6   5 50 12   104.0   90   48 12   61   92 107
Shawn Kelley         26   4.20   3   3 39   0   45.0   43   21   6   15   36 106
Sean White           29   4.21   2   2 51   0   62.0   63   29   5   24   27 106
Robert Manuel         26   4.37   4   4 55   0   70.0   70   34 10   24   45 102
Miguel Batista         39   4.42   4   5 64   0   75.1   73   37   8   41   54 101
Ricky Orta           25   4.54   2   3 34   2   39.2   38   20   5   22   31   98
Chris Jakubauskas       31   4.57   4   5 27   9   80.2   81   41 11   27   44   98
Randy Messenger       28   4.63   3   4 62   0   72.0   79   37   8   23   37   96
Kanekoa Texeira       24   5.03   6   8 47   4   82.1   84   46 10   47   52   89
Tyler Johnson*        29   5.17   0   1 22   0   15.2   16   9   2   7   10   86
Edward Paredes*        23   5.66   4   7 57   2   68.1   73   43 10   44   41   79
Anthony Varvaro       25   5.82   2   5 56   0   60.1   58   39   8   62   50   77

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

HernandezFelix   SP     99%  1%  0%    GoodenDwight     ClemensRoger     DrysdaleDon
BedardErik       SP     95%  4%  1%      GuidryRon     JohnsonRandy     LangstonMark
LeeCliff       SP     96%  3%  1%      SmileyJohn       OjedaBob     ViolaFrank
AardsmaDavid     RP     48%  45%  7%    GarreltsScott       DurenRyne       CruzJuan
LoweMark       RP     36%  54%  9%    RobergeBert     HeilmanAaron       BaezDanys
Rowland-SmithRyan SP     56%  41%  3%      AbbottJim     WoodallBrad       KarlScott
KoploveMike     RP     22%  50%  28%    AcevedoJuan       BrowerJim     MurrayDale
MorrowBrandon     RP     23%  60%  17%    MarmolCarlos     BrancaRalph     FlorieBryce
KelleyShawn     RP     25%  50%  25%    HoytLa Marr     NelsonGene     MelendezJose
WhiteSean       RP     24%  47%  28%      MillerBob       ProlyMike     ClevengerTex
ManuelRobert     RP     15%  56%  29%    DaleCharles   TaglientiJeff       DeweyMark
SnellIan       SP     30%  62%  8%    JenningsJason     ClementMatt     PrietoAriel
BatistaMiguel     RP     20%  46%  35%      McMahonDon HernandezRoberto   CarraraGiovanni
OrtaRicky       RP     15%  41%  45%    BorowskiJoe       JonesJeff     KoploveMike
JakubauskasChris   SP     13%  50%  36%    ValdezSergio     SorensenLary       ReedJerry
MessengerRandy   RP     9%  45%  46%      McNabTim     PhillipsTony     ArnoldTony
PetitYusmeiro     SP     13%  55%  32%    BoydOil Can     McGeheeKevin     BonesRicky
VargasJason     SP     6%  54%  40%    PainterLance     KrivdaRick     SirotkaMike
TexeiraKanekoa   RP     3%  39%  58%    AardsmaDavid     EyreWillie     DrummondTim
OlsonGarrett     SP     5%  49%  46%      WelshChris     VavrekMike     O’ConnorMike
JohnsonTyler     RP     25%  28%  47%    MacDonaldBob       MahayRon     WillisTravis
FrenchLuke       SP     2%  38%  60%      BikoThomas     JacksonZach     RundlesRich
HernandezGaby     SP     2%  34%  64%  ChristiansenClay     BurkettJohn     IrelandEric
FisterDouglas     SP     2%  36%  62%    TottenHeath     TowersJosh   WithemShannon
BaldwinAndrew     SP     2%  34%  64%      TowersJosh     TottenHeath     HarikkalaTim
CortesDaniel     SP     2%  30%  69%    MitchellLarry       DeveyPhil     LewisDerrick
SeddonChris     SP     0%  20%  80%    HampsonJustin     FasseroJeff     BrohawnTroy
FeierabendRyan   SP     2%  24%  75%  LivingstonBobby   PhillipsHeath     RojasChris
ParedesEdward     RP     1%  13%  86%    HeltonKeith     RohlicekRuss       BottGlenn
HallJosh       SP     2%  16%  83%  WilloughbyClaude     EstrellaLuis     EstrellaLeo
VarvaroAnthony   RP     1%  10%  90%      LangdonTed       BeneBill       BanksJosh
MunozLuis       SP     0%  5%  95%    RobertsBrett   CarraraGiovanni     BouknightKip

Player         130 ERA+  100 ERA+  K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9

<1
HernandezFelix 82% 100% 63% 1% 91%
BedardErik 74% 98% 84% 2% 68%
LeeCliff 58% 99% 41% 67% 90%
AardsmaDavid 40% 88% 85% 0% 61%
LoweMark 30% 84% 26% 1% 71%
Rowland-SmithRyan 15% 79% 0% 2% 53%
KoploveMike 16% 66% 3% 0% 68%
MorrowBrandon 16% 72% 45% 0% 57%
KelleyShawn 25% 68% 19% 13% 44%
WhiteSean 20% 61% 1% 7% 80%
ManuelRobert 11% 65% 0% 6% 40%
SnellIan 4% 60% 5% 0% 69%
BatistaMiguel 17% 56% 9% 1% 58%
OrtaRicky 15% 46% 16% 0% 45%
JakubauskasChris 8% 53% 0% 6% 38%
MessengerRandy 6% 42% 1% 10% 55%
PetitYusmeiro 1% 29% 1% 4% 4%
VargasJason 1% 23% 0% 1% 16%
TexeiraKanekoa 2% 30% 0% 0% 43%
OlsonGarrett 0% 18% 0% 0% 18%
JohnsonTyler 25% 39% 6% 13% 60%
FrenchLuke 0% 10% 0% 0% 29%
HernandezGaby 0% 10% 0% 0% 15%
FisterDouglas 0% 9% 0% 13% 8%
BaldwinAndrew 0% 9% 0% 13% 13%
CortesDaniel 0% 8% 1% 0% 41%
SeddonChris 0% 4% 0% 0% 7%
FeierabendRyan 0% 5% 0% 3% 24%
ParedesEdward 0% 11% 0% 0% 34%
HallJosh 1% 10% 0% 0% 54%
VarvaroAnthony 1% 8% 26% 0% 51%
MunozLuis 0% 1% 0% 0% 3%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player         W   L   S   ERA     G   GS   IP     H   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
HernandezFelix   247   125   0 3.17   550   552 3726   3210   344   1234   3430   140

Name           BA OBP SLG   G   AB     R     H   2B 3B   HR RBI   BB   SO SB CS OPS+
SuzukiIchiro   .327 .371 .422 2015 8651   1322   2826 323 84 112 682   570   913 440 101 113
GriffeyKen     .286 .371 .541 2668 9691   1654   2772 518 41 624 1823 1290   1755 188 71 137

All figures in % based on projection playing time

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

 

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees




These projections were sponsored in part by:

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Dan Szymborski Posted: December 26, 2009 at 06:58 PM | 77 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. sportznut Posted: December 26, 2009 at 07:26 PM (#3422352)
I don't see Ken Griffey Jr in your projections here, although he's listed under ODDIBE as a DH.
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 26, 2009 at 07:31 PM (#3422354)
Zduriencik has made this much better, of course, but I still don't think it's more than an 82-86 win team as currently constituted.

The lineup's has got only 3 above average hitters, one of whom is completely unreliable, and no power to speak of. For a team reliant on run prevention, the rotation after Hernandez/Lee isn't impressive.

They badly need a 1B and a LF who can hit, and another reliable SP.

Should be a wild 4-way race in the AL West.
   3. A triple short of the cycle Posted: December 26, 2009 at 07:36 PM (#3422355)
Should be an interesting race in the A.L. West this season. Angels should come back to the pack. There is talk that the Mariners are making a move, but I'm not sure they will even better than the A's. The M's were last in the division by Pythag record last year - five back of Oakland. Texas is the team that is starting to scare me given their highly regarded farm system.
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 26, 2009 at 07:36 PM (#3422356)
OK, Griffey there now.
   5. philly Posted: December 26, 2009 at 07:44 PM (#3422357)
You also need to replace Morrow with Brandon League.

Kind of interesting that ZiPS has Ichiro with more career hits than Griffey.
   6. Rays&Sox; Posted: December 26, 2009 at 07:44 PM (#3422358)
Does the League/Morrow trade work toward the 'big bullpen arm' or is it a wash?
   7. lonestarball Posted: December 26, 2009 at 07:58 PM (#3422363)
Dan -- Do you see Seattle and Anaheim as clearly a notch above the Rangers right now?
   8. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 26, 2009 at 08:08 PM (#3422370)
Yeah, I did the M's pitcher projections before the League/Morrow trade. You can see the League stats in the entry for the trade. I think it's kinda a wash - both League and Morrow could be very good, but there are questions.

I would put M's and Angels above Rangers now (sorry), though not by a massive amount. I rather have the Rangers bullpen than the Mariners bullpen, but the Rangers offense isn't overwhelming. I can see all 3 teams possibly winning 90 games, but the Mariners and Angels being more likely.

The A's, I really don't see in the race.
   9. Depressoteric feels Royally blue these days Posted: December 26, 2009 at 08:23 PM (#3422381)
Zduriencik has made this much better, of course, but I still don't think it's more than an 82-86 win team as currently constituted.
This. I wish I could say that the Mariners have elbowed their way into 'favorite' status, but it's not true, not yet. My number-crunching gets me to the high side of snapper's ranger, a legit 86 wins. Now I think I'm weighting the effect of their incredible defense a bit too lightly, but I also don't think that it can get them to 90+ wins (even considering the weakened state of the A's & Angels) as is.

Some points to remember:

1.) The Mariners' 1B situation is still unresolved. Branyan was mooted as a returning FA by most, but he and his bad back (which took him out for the last 6 weeks of '09) are holding out for a two year deal that the Mariners are unwilling to give him. I think it's still more likely than not that he returns (probably on a 1 yr + vesting/mutual option deal) but I could also see the M's going after someone like Mat Gamel from the Brewers instead. The eventual result is going to matter a lot in calculating the team's offense: Branyan was nearly a one-man offense for the M's during the first half of the season last year, and in such a power-starved lineup he'll be missed.

2.) League/Morrow: League may well be the "big bullpen arm" we're looking for, assuming his '09 is repeatable. League's heavy reliance on a new "splange" pitch last year actually bodes well for this, or at least as well as any datum can given the volatility of relievers. See Matthew Carruth at Lookout Landing for more on this. As for Morrow going out, I'd be interested in seeing how ZiPS projects him, with the understanding that he's going to be switching back to the starter role in Toronto. My suspicion is that it will not go well given Morrow's complete lack of quality secondary pitches, but who knows? Stranger things have happened.

3.) Screw ZiPS, Szymborski. Ichiro's getting to 3,000, and he's gonna do it in a non-embarrassing way. I know this is true because I dearly wish it to be so.

4.) I love Jack Zduriencik.
   10.     Hey Gurl Posted: December 26, 2009 at 09:11 PM (#3422400)
It's funny to read Mariners fans talking about League's "step forward" last year when Toronto fans pretty much hated him. "In comes League, bye bye lead..."

He has always nasty stuff, though. It's fun to watch when batters swing and miss.

Edit: I'm not saying you guys are wrong, just that it's amusing.
   11. sportznut Posted: December 26, 2009 at 09:16 PM (#3422407)
Dan, is there any rhyme or reason to the order of teams you're going in?
   12. So Taguchi is My Sensei Posted: December 26, 2009 at 09:30 PM (#3422415)
Dan, is there any rhyme or reason to the order of teams you're going in?


That would be the alphabet, backwards.
   13. greenback calls it soccer Posted: December 26, 2009 at 09:30 PM (#3422416)
I believe it's reverse alphabetical order by team nickname.

Hmm, no mention of nickname in #12. So I'm not sure of the Coke rules here.
   14. sportznut Posted: December 26, 2009 at 09:32 PM (#3422418)
That would be the alphabet, backwards.
Okay, thanks.
   15. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 26, 2009 at 09:36 PM (#3422421)
Yeah, I do teams in a different order every other year and then reverse it the 2nd year.
   16.     Hey Gurl Posted: December 26, 2009 at 09:42 PM (#3422423)
And I, for one, appreciate that. :-)
   17. frannyzoo Posted: December 26, 2009 at 09:54 PM (#3422433)
The highest OPS+ is only 113, and that's to be accomplished by a widely acknowledged crazy person. There's no real resolution at the highly offensive important 1B and LF positions, and the team has already distinguished itself as trade crazy.

It's crazy...and I like it. A little.

But it's like that poker game where you've quickly drunk all the liquor and you have to make the call: do we stop now or make another trip to the liquor store?

Crazy Z! Make the second trip! Jason Bay may be another way of saying Richie Sexson, but there's just gotta be more OPS here. Plus, Bay's Canadian, which I hear is close to Seattle.

Ideally, this team would sign Elmer Flick or Paul Waner, but I hear they're dead. Ross Youngs too. It's a shame.

So Bay or something like him might be the only 2010-era facsimile available. Make it happen, Crazy Z.
   18. Walt Davis Posted: December 26, 2009 at 10:03 PM (#3422436)
Those are some weird comps for Bradley. Bobby Estalella -- not saying it's wrong, just entertaining.

Felix's comps are a real cautionary tale.

The A's, I really don't see in the race.

Which I assume means ZiPS will project them to 94 wins. :-)

EDIT: and who plays C on the Ms?
   19. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 26, 2009 at 10:10 PM (#3422443)
Those are some weird comps for Bradley. Bobby Estalella -- not saying it's wrong, just entertaining.

I bet you're looking at the wrong Estalella!
   20. Juan V Posted: December 26, 2009 at 10:42 PM (#3422464)
Lovin' that Felix career projection. Hopefully it includes a WBC ring or two.
   21. Juan V Posted: December 26, 2009 at 10:45 PM (#3422466)
Ken Griffey Jr. * dh 40 .214 .320 .372 105 355 40 76 18 1 12 55 55 79 0 0 85


I feel old.
   22. Walt Davis Posted: December 27, 2009 at 12:51 AM (#3422524)
I didn't know there was another Estalella. I'm guessing he was muy blanco. :-)

And I know it's hitting-based and therefore sensible, but the Endy Chavez -- Larry Biittner comp amuses me. I might have had more defensive range and baserunning speed than Biittner.
   23. JoeHova Posted: December 27, 2009 at 01:09 AM (#3422532)
and who plays C on the Ms?

Rob Johnson, with Adam Moore backing him up. Not the best situation but maybe Moore will break out. They also signed Eliézer Alfonzo to a minor league deal in case Johnson is not recovered from the 3 surgeries he had in October in time to begin the season, or if Moore isn't ready.
   24. PreservedFish Posted: December 27, 2009 at 04:07 AM (#3422579)
Rob Johnson, with Adam Moore backing him up.


These sound like the fictional players that computer games fill yoru minor league roster out with.
   25. Depressoteric feels Royally blue these days Posted: December 27, 2009 at 04:17 AM (#3422581)
I wish Rob Johnson was a fictional player.
   26. tropicofcancer Posted: December 27, 2009 at 05:25 AM (#3422591)
Can someone explain ZIPS to me? It makes absolutely zero sense. Every guy who has a breakout season is projected to regress, and moreover, this dude never projects anyone to have a breakout season, which invariably occurs with at least two players on every team. It's like the dude wants everyone to suck.
   27. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: December 27, 2009 at 05:35 AM (#3422593)
Ummm, he's modeling realistic expectations based on historical data, not trying to pull crazy optimistic #### out of his ass to try to look smart when 1 out of 10 of them actually happen?
   28. Frisco Cali Posted: December 27, 2009 at 05:43 AM (#3422595)
It's like the dude wants everyone to suck.

Mr. Zips is an warped, bitter old man, kinda like Mr. Potter in Its A Wonderful Life. We all hope that one day he will come around to our worldview where everyone should be projected to have a breakout season. Especially the players on our fantasy teams.
   29. Zoppity Zoop Posted: December 27, 2009 at 06:43 AM (#3422609)
What breakout seasons should ZIPS have projected as the best guess for a player? Breakout seasons are, by definition, unlikely.

As we can see, ZIPS does in fact address breakout and breakdown seasons, which is the whole point of the ODDIBE stuff.
   30. Barnaby Jones Posted: December 27, 2009 at 06:49 AM (#3422610)
I'd never heard of the senior Estalella, but his BR Bullpen writeup makes him sound pretty interesting.
   31. RollingWave Posted: December 27, 2009 at 08:41 AM (#3422630)
how does Erik Bedard still gets that kind of projection??? even accounting for the lack of playtime isn't that way too optimistic?

and uhhh, I take it that ZIPS think Felix will run away with the Cy Young (which wouldn't surprise to be sure)
   32. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 27, 2009 at 12:46 PM (#3422644)
Greinke was 142 ERA+ in 226 IP
   33. DetroitMichael Posted: December 27, 2009 at 01:26 PM (#3422646)
There's a nice entry on the older Bobby Estalella in the New Bill James Historical Abstract. He was a dark-skinned Cuban, kind of skirting the baseball color line not an injury prone player, but his playing time was uneven as a result, which helps explain why he shows up as Milton Bradley's top comp.

I found Bedard's top 3 comps most amusing considering that Langston and Randy Johnson were once traded for each other.
   34. Justin T is going to crush some tacos Thursday Posted: December 27, 2009 at 02:55 PM (#3422657)
Bill Hall is projected to go from a 58 OPS+ to a 72. That's a breakout.
   35. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 27, 2009 at 03:38 PM (#3422662)
how does Erik Bedard still gets that kind of projection??? even accounting for the lack of playtime isn't that way too optimistic?


Well, he's been better than that 2 of the last 3 years, including 2009 with his constantly injured arm. Bedard is a great pitcher.

and uhhh, I take it that ZIPS think Felix will run away with the Cy Young (which wouldn't surprise to be sure)

ZiPS has Felix leading the league in ERA, just nudging out Greinke (I don't have all projections done, but I did all the contenders for ESPN Mag - I figured I didn't need to project Jeremy Sowers or Gio Gonzalez for that task).

ZiPS sees the AL Cy as a 5-pitcher race of Felix, Greinke, Lee, Sabathia, and Vazquez. Then a significant dropoff to the next tier of Verlander, Shields, Beckett, Garza, Lackey, Lester.
   36. Travolta19 Posted: December 27, 2009 at 05:59 PM (#3422714)
Dan,
Is that a typo on Jose Lopez's defense at 2B? I thought he was regarded as fair to average defensively.
   37. 3744nsheffield Posted: December 27, 2009 at 08:09 PM (#3422804)
What's the over/under on Bradley getting 350 at bats?
   38.     Hey Gurl Posted: December 27, 2009 at 08:38 PM (#3422830)

What's the over/under on Bradley getting 350 at bats?


Um...6.5?

(What?)
   39. Alex_Lewis Posted: December 27, 2009 at 09:13 PM (#3422846)
The only thing I can say with any certainty re: ZiPS is that it is rarely correct regarding Ichiro.
   40. Greg K Posted: December 27, 2009 at 09:25 PM (#3422850)
What makes ZiPS so wonderful is that it provides an excellent starting point to discuss players, and if there is some reason to believe a player will deviate from historical norms you can mentally adjust the projection.

And Ichiro is certainly a player who has never seen historical norms eye to eye.
   41. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 27, 2009 at 09:41 PM (#3422856)
Oops, should be AV/131. I put VG for both 1B and 2B.
   42. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 27, 2009 at 09:44 PM (#3422859)
<I>The only thing I can say with any certainty re: ZiPS is that it is rarely correct regarding Ichiro.<I>

It looks like with Cameron and Scutaro, Ichiro is another point of disagreement between ZiPS and CHONE. .742 vs. .782 OPS!
   43. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 27, 2009 at 09:54 PM (#3422864)
I was actually going to say that this is maybe the first Ichiro projection I've seen that looked somewhat sensible. At least it doesn't have him hitting .297 or something.

CHONE's .306 is pretty hard to take. PECOTA's 2009 was pretty awesome - 292/338/359. Seriously.

I get that the problem is that Ichiro is radically different from almost any other baseball player ever, and so the failure to project Ichiro is a failure internal to baseball projections. That is, one of the basic presumptions of projection is that MLB ballplayers are like each other and historical data is robustly useful for thinking about how players will perform in the future. This base presumption is less true for Ichiro than it is for any other player in baseball.
   44. PreservedFish Posted: December 27, 2009 at 10:02 PM (#3422869)
I don't understand why the projections would miss so badly on Ichiro. If you just do a three year average you get .335 or something. If you apply a basic age curve, what does it knock off, .010?

It suggests that the project of using comparable players as the projection engine is a failure. The simplest engine does Ichiro better.
   45. Depressoteric feels Royally blue these days Posted: December 27, 2009 at 10:55 PM (#3422893)
This base presumption is less true for Ichiro than it is for any other player in baseball.
Which is why, despite his obvious flaws as an offensive player, Ichiro remains IMO the most fascinating player currently in the game. I do so love how he has obliterated his projections every single year.

Actually, has he? Is there somewhere I can go to find historical projection data for players? Ichiro's PECOTA, CHONE and ZiPS for, say, the past five years? (Well I can find ZiPS here easily enough.) I know I should already know the answer to this question, but I don't.
   46.     Hey Gurl Posted: December 27, 2009 at 11:18 PM (#3422904)
2008 ZiPS = .322 .372 .404
2008 Ichi = .310 .361 .386
   47. Steve Phillips' Hot Cougar (DrStankus) Posted: December 27, 2009 at 11:38 PM (#3422909)
Is there a link to how ODDIBE is calculated? Google isn't helping me here.

Thanks!
   48. J. Lowenstein Apathy Club Posted: December 28, 2009 at 05:32 AM (#3423073)
Dan, would it be possible to get a ZiPS line for Steven Shell?
   49. MM1f Posted: December 28, 2009 at 06:54 AM (#3423094)
2008 ZiPS = .322 .372 .404
2008 Ichi = .310 .361 .386


What is your point?
I mean that as a serious question that I would love to see an answer to. What point were you trying to make?

Projections regularly expect Ichiro to disappoint, so ONE YEAR, when he has the worst season of his career, they are pretty close? What does that prove? How does that help any useful discussion?

That is about as stupid as Prospectus regularly predicting the end of the Braves titles. Sure enough, they were right eventually, but that didn't change the fact that they were completely wrong
   50. Baldrick Posted: December 28, 2009 at 07:04 AM (#3423095)
What is your point?
I mean that as a serious question that I would love to see an answer to. What point were you trying to make?
Projections regularly expect Ichiro to disappoint, so ONE YEAR, when he has the worst season of his career, they are pretty close? What does that prove? How does that help any useful discussion?

Well, I'd hazard that it was a response to the post IMMEDIATELY prior to it. Where Esoteric said:

Which is why, despite his obvious flaws as an offensive player, Ichiro remains IMO the most fascinating player currently in the game. I do so love how he has obliterated his projections every single year.

Actually, has he?

So, yeah. Seems like a pretty reasonable contribution to the discussion, doesn't it?
   51. greenback calls it soccer Posted: December 28, 2009 at 07:07 AM (#3423096)
2005 PECOTA for Ichiro: 311/355/415
2005 Actual: 303/350/436

So make it two years.
   52. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 28, 2009 at 07:39 AM (#3423104)
I definitely need to get around and add some ODDIBE questions in the ZiPS FAQ. Short-version, data smoothing and array of probabilities for change from baseline performance for each component (with relationship between components taken into account as things like doubles and HRs aren't truly independent variables) and Monte Carlo.
   53. Depressoteric feels Royally blue these days Posted: December 28, 2009 at 07:45 AM (#3423105)
So, yeah. Seems like a pretty reasonable contribution to the discussion, doesn't it?
Yup. Shock was just helpfully answering my question - doing my research for me (always the best way to handle research projects...ask questions loudly and hope someone else will look that crap up for you).
   54. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 28, 2009 at 07:55 AM (#3423109)
For Suzuki (since 2004)


Year ZiPS Actual
2004 325/373/436 372/414/455
2005 343/390/436 303/350/436
2006 319/366/429 322/370/416
2007 319/366/413 351/396/431
2008 322/372/404 310/361/386
2009 304/354/383 352/386/465


The thing is, Ichiro's not really all that consistent. If he'd stop alternating 105 and 125 OPS+ seasons, projection systems would nail him better.
   55.     Hey Gurl Posted: December 28, 2009 at 08:59 AM (#3423112)
So, in a nutshell:

ZiPS has completely whiffed on Ichiro twice, undersold him by a little once, oversold him by a little twice, and nailed him once.

Doesn't seem too bad. I might take the over on 2010, but I wouldn't be all that confident...
   56. MM1f Posted: December 28, 2009 at 09:02 AM (#3423113)
Well, I'd hazard that it was a response to the post IMMEDIATELY prior to it. Where Esoteric said:

I know that, but to pick the worst year of guy's career and just throw the results of that out there vs the ZIPS doesn't really get us out there. Talk about cherrypicking and outliers and what not.
   57.     Hey Gurl Posted: December 28, 2009 at 09:09 AM (#3423114)

I know that, but to pick the worst year of guy's career and just throw the results of that out there vs the ZIPS doesn't really get us out there. Talk about cherrypicking and outliers and what not.


I'm not "cherrypicking," I am posting a direct response to a direct claim. The claim was that Ichro "obliterates" his projection "every single year." Those last three words were placed in italics, for emphasis. He then went on to ASK us readers if his claims were true. I thought it prudent to show that, actually, they failed to be true even as recently as two seasons ago. How quickly we forget.

The claims of "cherry picking" are just silly in this context. It's like:

A) "There is no such thing as cats!!"
B) "Then what's that?" *points to a cat*
A) You're cherry-picking!


Wow, two arguments for me in one night? At least you didn't challenge me to a fight...
   58. MM1f Posted: December 28, 2009 at 09:30 AM (#3423116)
Fair enough, you did answer whether it happened "every single year" but finding that underestimating a guy every year works on the year he posts his worst season still doesn't get us very far
   59. Iwakuma Chameleon (jonathan) Posted: December 28, 2009 at 09:47 AM (#3423119)
ZiPS sees the AL Cy as a 5-pitcher race of Felix, Greinke, Lee, Sabathia, and Vazquez. Then a significant dropoff to the next tier of Verlander, Shields, Beckett, Garza, Lackey, Lester.



Is ZiPS not loving it some Brett Anderson?

(Am I hoping for too much?)
   60. Baldrick Posted: December 28, 2009 at 10:12 AM (#3423121)
Fair enough, you did answer whether it happened "every single year" but finding that underestimating a guy every year works on the year he posts his worst season still doesn't get us very far

I love it when people say 'fair enough' and then continue to willfully misunderstand the point.

You know what else Shock didn't help us understand? How to build a unified field theory. Disputing the assertion that Ichiro beat ZIPS every year gets us no closer to developing cold fusion. Even more, it does very little to establish the most effective way of ensuring that young pitchers stay healthy.

I'm extremely angry about this failure.
   61. Alex_Lewis Posted: December 28, 2009 at 11:30 AM (#3423124)
Well, I didn't say that Ichiro "beats" ZiPS every year; all I said was that it's rarely correct about him. I don't think that's an inaccurate statement.
   62. CFiJ Posted: December 28, 2009 at 03:45 PM (#3423184)
The Games Played projection for Ichiro seems awfully low though. His career low was last year, and even that was 146 games. Is there a reason for that?
   63. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 28, 2009 at 03:59 PM (#3423193)
I think what we see here is that ZiPS has done quite a solid job on Ichiro, better than I certainly remembered. Overall ZiPS has undersold him, but probably not by a lot more than any projection system will undersell a player who maintains good production into his 30s. Here's the same data, but with PECOTA following Ichiro's actual numbers:
Year- ZiPS-------- Actual------ PECOTA
2004 325/373/436 372/414/455 309/351/423
2005 343/390/436 303/350/436 311/355/415
2006 319/366/429 322/370/416 308/343/406
2007 319/366/413 351/396/431 310/354/398
2008 322/372/404 310/361/386 304/346/384
2009 304/354/383 352/386/465 292/338/359
There's the difference I was talking about.
   64. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: December 28, 2009 at 04:10 PM (#3423200)
ZiPS sees the AL Cy as a 5-pitcher race of Felix, Greinke, Lee, Sabathia, and Vazquez. Then a significant dropoff to the next tier of Verlander, Shields, Beckett, Garza, Lackey, Lester.
Nope. You're not doing it. You're not getting my hopes up. He's going 15-12, 4.20 and that's that.
   65. Danny Posted: December 28, 2009 at 04:18 PM (#3423206)
Has ZIPS always used comparable players? If not, when did it start to?

Does Hannahan have the arm to play SS? Given his defensive chops at 2B and 3B, he would make a very nice utility IF if he can play a passable SS.

Could you tell us what park factors and league run environments you're using for 2010 (or link me to where you do)? Thanks. It looks the same Mariner ERA is worth about 3 more points in ERA+ in 2010 than in 2009.
   66. Greg K Posted: December 28, 2009 at 04:21 PM (#3423208)
all I said was that it's rarely correct about him. I don't think that's an inaccurate statement.

Define rarely

/Jerry Seinfeld
   67. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: December 28, 2009 at 04:22 PM (#3423209)
Ichiro would join small, but not exclusive company as outfielders to play more than 130+ games at age 36 or older. 145 games is rarer company (52 seasons vs. 106) but I'd hardly bet against it.
   68. geonose Posted: December 28, 2009 at 09:37 PM (#3423450)
ZiPS has Felix leading the league in ERA, just nudging out Greinke (I don't have all projections done, but I did all the contenders for ESPN Mag - I figured I didn't need to project Jeremy Sowers or Gio Gonzalez for that task).

Any clue when that will be appearing in the ESPN Mag?
   69. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 28, 2009 at 10:18 PM (#3423488)
I would love to see Greg Halman get 500 PAs, but that ain't happenin'. If by some quirk of fate it did, he'd obliterate the single-season K record.

-- MWE
   70. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 28, 2009 at 10:24 PM (#3423498)
Any clue when that will be appearing in the ESPN Mag?

No, actually. I never think to ask useful questions like that.
   71. Neal Traven Posted: December 29, 2009 at 12:21 AM (#3423587)
Player                 W      L     S   ERA      G      GS   IP        H       HR      BB     SO     ERA+
HernandezFelix    247   125     0  3.17    550    552 3726   3210    344   1234   3430    140

King Felix is one amazing dude. Why, he's projected to start more games than he appears in!
   72. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 29, 2009 at 12:58 AM (#3423597)
Ack! I never fixed the rounding issue!
   73. sportznut Posted: December 29, 2009 at 08:10 PM (#3424010)
Any chance we see the Indians projections today?

Recent signings?
   74. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: December 30, 2009 at 05:01 AM (#3424442)
Chad Cordero and Josh Bard recently signed w/ the Mariners . . . projections? Thanxxxx.
   75. JoeHova Posted: January 07, 2010 at 01:54 AM (#3430313)
There has been a lot of talk recently on Mariners blogs about how people who want the team to sign somebody who can actually hit are stupid. They say that defense is just as important as offense. How can they say with such dead-on certainty that that is the case? Obviously run prevention as a whole is extremely important but how can defense be as important as offense when the difference between a good offense and a bad offense is many more runs than the difference between a good defense and a bad defense?

In the AL last year, the spread between the top offense and the bottom offense was 275 runs and the best offense was 134 runs better than the average one. Meanwhile, the spread between the best defense and the worst was 135 runs (measured with UZR, the preferred defensive metric of many Mariner blogs) and the best was 87 runs better than average (the average team UZR in the AL last year was -1.2).

Doesn't this imply that offense is more valuable than defense because the effect defense has on runs is smaller than the effect offense has on runs? If not, why not?

The Mariners, by the way, were first in defense and last in offense.
   76. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 13, 2010 at 11:40 PM (#3709791)
I thought #75 was recent, courtesy of the last line. (not that they were 1st in defense)
   77. Depressoteric feels Royally blue these days Posted: December 14, 2010 at 12:27 AM (#3709830)
Oof. I read my earlier comment now and wince.

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