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Wednesday, January 27, 2010

2010 ZiPS Projections - St. Louis Cardinals

The biggest questions surrounding the Cardinals for 2010 look to involve the pitching rotation.  Carpenter was his usual amazing self last season, but he’s still a pitcher that has always had health questions surrounding him.  With a bit of fortune, Carpenter remaining healthy, Garcia being healthy and forcing his way onto the team, and Penny and perhaps another third-tier free agent being great Dave Duncan Specials and the rotation looks a lot better, but this is looking like the team’s sore point this season.  The bullpen is also missing a dominant reliever or two.

The offense, however, should keep the Cards in the thick of things in a rather weak division.  Pujols and Holliday gives any team a great head start and while there aren’t any other stars in the supporting cast (though Ludwick should be better), there also aren’t any serious holes and most positions have viable fill-ins.  Assuming of course, there’s no repeat of the 2009 3B situation, with the stubbornly sticking through some pretty awful Joe Thurston play.

In this division, the Cards look like an 85-90 win team, which makes them contenders, but there are a few places where some things going horribly wrong could drop that a lot.

Offensive Projections

Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Albert Pujols         1b 30 .333 .442 .635 149 531 109 177 38 1 40 138 102 60 5 2   185
Matt Holliday         lf 30 .308 .387 .528 142 562 104 173 38 4 26 125 66 112 10 3   143
Ryan Ludwick         rf 31 .282 .348 .511 138 468 74 132 27 1 26 97 43 114 2 2   127
Skip Schumaker*      2b 30 .299 .355 .404 145 488 75 146 27 3 6 49 42 64 4 2   103
Allen Craig         lf 25 .279 .330 .434 134 516 70 144 27 1 17 78 35 105 2 1   103
Yadier Molina         c   27 .289 .352 .389 133 460 42 133 23 1 7 63 42 42 3 2   99
Joe Mather           rf 27 .261 .327 .433 101 349 47 91 20 2 12 54 29 70 5 1   102
David Freese         3b 27 .265 .326 .429 105 389 57 103 21 2 13 66 33 92 2 1   101
Colby Rasmus*        cf 23 .260 .327 .411 138 489 74 127 25 2 15 65 46 105 8 2   97
Nick Stavinoha       1b 28 .274 .313 .411 128 438 50 120 23 2 11 70 25 73 2 0   93
Ruben Gotay#        2b 27 .246 .346 .377 122 334 41 82 19 2 7 46 50 65 2 3   94
Daniel Descalso*      2b 23 .266 .326 .393 135 504 70 134 29 4 9 71 40 78 3 3   92
Jon Jay*            cf 25 .276 .329 .388 120 467 63 129 22 3 8 54 31 68 10 6   92
Tyler Henley*        rf 25 .264 .319 .395 97 352 44 93 21 2 7 46 26 63 4 3   91
Brendan Ryan         ss 28 .274 .326 .372 122 387 59 106 18 4 4 37 27 59 11 4   87
Julio Lugo           ss 34 .259 .326 .369 93 317 41 82 17 3 4 37 31 55 10 2   86
Bryan Anderson*      c   23 .258 .315 .375 75 248 30 64 13 2 4 27 20 53 1 0   84
Shane Robinson       cf 25 .270 .318 .370 102 370 50 100 19 3 4 43 23 49 11 4   84
Daryl Jones*        lf 23 .251 .323 .359 105 390 49 98 16 4 6 39 35 96 8 4   83
Mark Hamilton*        1b 25 .243 .313 .371 98 345 36 84 17 0 9 48 32 94 0 1   83
Steve Hill           c   25 .249 .290 .387 103 406 41 101 19 2 11 52 23 107 1 1   80
Mark Shorey*        rf 25 .255 .300 .366 116 369 33 94 18 1 7 47 21 92 1 1   78
Donovan Solano       ss 22 .255 .305 .324 135 510 64 130 22 2 3 44 33 93 3 1   69
Peter Kozma         ss 22 .236 .296 .322 137 521 62 123 24 3 5 55 44 126 5 3   66
Jason LaRue         c   36 .214 .297 .329 57 140 15 30 7 0 3 15 12 34 1 0   68
Tyler Greene         ss 26 .229 .281 .346 85 301 37 69 13 2 6 29 17 91 7 2   67
Matt Pagnozzi         c   27 .229 .286 .320 80 253 22 58 11 0 4 28 18 70 1 1   63

Defensive Projections

Name           CThr 1b     2b     3b     ss     lf     cf     rf    
Pujols             Vg/97                                  
Holliday                                 Av/86            
Ludwick                                 Av/56       Av/56  
Schumaker*              Fr/105             Av/113 Fr/85   Fr/109
Craig             Av/82       Fr/129       Av/71            
Molina         Vg                                      
Mather             Av/148       Pr/160       Av/98   Pr/127 Av/98  
Freese             Av/99       Av/99                      
Rasmus*                                      Vg/145      
Stavinoha           Av/97                   Av/134       Fr/134
Gotay#                  Pr/138 Av/142 Pr/163                
Descalso*                Av/133 Av/118                      
Jay*                                  Vg/55   Av/55   Vg/55  
Henley*                                Av/192 Fr/131 Av/131
Ryan                   Av/80   Av/80   Vg/80   Av/102 Fr/102 Av/102
Lugo                   Av/128 Av/128 Fr/128                
Anderson*      Av                                      
Robinson                                 Vg/83   Av/94   Vg/83  
Jones*                                  Vg/63   Fr/123 Vg/63  
Hamilton*          Av/107                                
Hill           Fr   Fr/126                 Fr/126            
Shorey*                                Fr/134       Fr/134
Solano                 Av/119 Av/119 Av/137                
Kozma                             Av/147                
LaRue         Av   Fr/114                                
Greene                 Av/124 Av/124 Av/124                
Pagnozzi       Av                                      

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name           PO   EX   VG   AV   FR   PO       COMP 1       COMP 2       COMP 3
PujolsAlbert     1B   99%  1%  0%  0%  0%    ThomasFrank   MurrayEddie     PowellBoog
HollidayMatt     LF   74%  20%  4%  1%  0%    HisleLarry   FosterGeorge   GilkeyBernard
LudwickRyan     RF   35%  35%  16%  9%  5%  BerroaGeronimo MaldonadoCandy LitwhilerDanny
SchumakerSkip     2B   28%  23%  21%  18%  10%    GantnerJim     WalkerTodd   LorettaMark
CraigAllen       LF   5%  17%  22%  28%  28%    BrownOllie     NadyXavier     JoseFelix
MatherJoe       RF   4%  17%  23%  29%  27%    MonroeCraig HammondsJeffrey     KressRed
MolinaYadier     C   17%  36%  26%  16%  5%    WilsonCraig     AzcueJoe HernandezMichel
FreeseDavid     3B   7%  20%  27%  27%  19%      HelmsWes     BoyerClete   WhitneyPinky
RasmusColby     CF   12%  18%  33%  26%  11%    BostonDaryl     ReidJessie     CurtisChad
StavinohaNick     1B   1%  5%  9%  30%  55%      BelkTim     JamesChris     TocaJorge
JayJonathan     CF   5%  8%  22%  33%  32%      DayBoots HamiltonDarryl   SchumakerSkip
DescalsoDaniel   2B   7%  10%  17%  30%  36%CatalanottoFrank GustineFrankie   ThomasDerrel
RyanBrendan     SS   4%  15%  37%  31%  13%  GarciaCarlos   BartlettJason   TaverasFrank
LugoJulio       SS   8%  20%  35%  25%  12%  PatekFreddieMaranvilleRabbit   BelangerMark
HenleyTyler     RF   0%  2%  6%  19%  72%    JohnsonRoy   CummingsMidre   SinisiVince
GotayRuben       2B   6%  10%  18%  31%  35%  HubbardGlenn MenechinoFrank     IrelandTim
RobinsonShane     CF   2%  5%  20%  37%  36%  GlanvilleDoug   EllisonJason     JonesCleon
AndersonBryan     C   2%  14%  27%  39%  18%  FitzgeraldMike O’HalloranGreg   CastroRamon
JonesDaryl       LF   0%  1%  4%  12%  83%  KoslofskiKevin     AllenLuke   LusaderScott
HamiltonMark     1B   0%  1%  3%  15%  81%    RolisonNate   JimenezLuis   DaubachBrian
HillSteve       C   1%  7%  16%  36%  40%    BordersPat   SkinnerJoel   PalaciosRey
ShoreyMark       RF   0%  0%  1%  4%  94%    ReedKeith   ShockeyGreg     BrownDee
SolanoDonovan     SS   0%  2%  8%  24%  67%  StevensonJohn   HoffmanGlenn     CorreiaRod
GreeneTyler     SS   0%  2%  8%  22%  68%    AbbottKurt   KlassenDanny     PettiniJoe
LaRueJason       C   0%  3%  7%  28%  62%      LakerTim   DifeliceMike     HeganJim
KozmaPeter       SS   0%  1%  5%  18%  76%      BogarTim   PeraltaJhonny VillanuevaJuan
PagnozziMatt     C   0%  0%  2%  8%  90%    MolinaJose   DifeliceMike     KratzErik

Name         .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB
PujolsAlbert       89%    99%    99%    98%    20%    0%    86%    0%
HollidayMatt       63%    68%    64%    51%    20%    3%    22%    0%
LudwickRyan       27%    17%    53%    23%    1%    0%    27%    0%
SchumakerSkip       50%    24%    1%    1%    1%    0%    0%    0%
CraigAllen         22%    5%    7%    3%    1%    0%    3%    0%
MatherJoe         9%    5%    6%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
MolinaYadier       34%    21%    1%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%
FreeseDavid       11%    5%    6%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%
RasmusColby         8%    5%    3%    1%    0%    0%    1%    0%
StavinohaNick       17%    2%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
JayJonathan       20%    6%    1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
DescalsoDaniel     10%    4%    2%    1%    2%    2%    0%    0%
RyanBrendan       16%    3%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
LugoJulio         8%    5%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HenleyTyler       10%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
GotayRuben         3%    15%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
RobinsonShane       15%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
AndersonBryan       9%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
JonesDaryl         5%    3%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
HamiltonMark       3%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HillSteve         4%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ShoreyMark         6%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
SolanoDonovan       4%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
GreeneTyler         1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
LaRueJason         2%    4%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
KozmaPeter         1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
PagnozziMatt       2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Adam Wainwright       28   3.15 15   9 31 31   205.2 193   72 14   59 184 136
Chris Carpenter       35   3.47   6   4 15 15   93.1   90   36   7   24   66 123
John Smoltz           43   3.95   6   5 19 18   100.1 102   44 10   23   90 108
Brad Penny           32   4.63   8   9 26 26   151.2 165   78 16   50   95   93
Kyle Lohse           31   4.65   8 10 28 27   153.0 168   79 18   46   93   92
Jaime Garcia*        23   4.75   4   4 16 12   66.1   69   35   8   30   51   90
Lance Lynn           23   4.85   5   7 28 23   118.2 124   64 14   55   77   88
Rich Hill*          30   4.92   5   6 20 20   93.1   92   51 11   54   76   86
Todd Wellemeyer       31   5.05   6   9 30 23   133.2 149   75 19   55   91   85
Ben Jukich*          27   5.23   7   9 28 22   129.0 146   75 18   56   82   83
P.J. Walters         25   5.26   4   6 20 15   87.1   97   51 13   37   64   81
Evan MacLane*        27   5.39   6 11 29 24   148.2 183   89 24   36   66   79
Mitchell Boggs         26   5.40   6 11 29 26   145.0 170   87 17   72   86   79
Charlie Zink         30   5.49   8 12 27 25   142.2 163   87 15   70   53   78
Trey Hearne           26   5.69   6 11 30 21   134.1 164   85 17   59   67   75
Adam Ottavino         24   5.81   5 11 27 27   131.2 151   85 17   83   87   74
Ryan Kulik*          24   5.88   5 10 23 21   108.2 136   71 15   45   47   73
Tyler Norrick*        26   6.08   3   6 15 14   71.0   79   48 10   51   46   70

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Trever Miller*        37   3.67   2   1 67   0   41.2   36   17   4   16   41 117
Ryan Franklin         37   3.80   5   4 65   0   66.1   65   28   6   21   44 113
Kyle McClellan         31   3.86   4   4 63   0   70.0   68   30   6   28   53 111
Dennys Reyes*        33   3.99   1   1 67   0   38.1   36   17   3   18   32 107
Jason Motte           28   4.22   4   4 70   0   64.0   61   30   8   28   67 101
Blake Hawksworth       27   4.38   3   3 58   0   63.2   66   31   7   25   43   98
Charlie Manning*      31   4.39   2   2 52   0   55.1   53   27   6   29   46   97
Royce Ring*          29   4.44   3   4 58   0   46.2   47   23   5   23   39   97
Eduardo Sanchez       21   4.63   1   2 52   0   56.1   56   29   6   29   47   92
Ian Ostlund*          31   4.64   1   1 31   0   52.1   55   27   7   18   39   92
Oneli Perez           27   4.95   3   4 35   5   67.1   72   37 10   29   53   87
Matthew Scherer       27   5.00   3   4 53   0   68.1   77   38   8   24   39   86
Francisco Samuel       23   5.71   3   6 57   0   52.0   50   33   6   52   50   75

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player         PO     TOP   MID   BOT         COMP 1         COMP 2         COMP 3
WainwrightAdam   SP     82%  17%  1%    McDowellJack       PennyBrad     NagyCharles
CarpenterChris   SP     75%  22%  3%    RogersSteve     MadduxGreg       FaberRed
MillerTrever     RP     42%  42%  16%    OroscoJesse     CookDennis     GuthrieMark
FranklinRyan     RP     34%  50%  16%      LampDennis     LeachTerry     HergesMatt
McClellanKyle     RP     26%  58%  16%      WickmanBob     DedmonJeff     CapellanJose
SmoltzJohn       SP     49%  42%  9%    SchillingCurt       SuttonDon     MussinaMike
ReyesDennys     RP     31%  46%  23%    MillerTrever       EyreScott     McElroyChuck
MotteJason       RP     18%  55%  27%      DavisRon     DarwinDanny     JacksonMike
HawksworthBlake   RP     12%  44%  44%      QuallsChad     SmallAaron     LehrJustin
ManningCharlie   RP     15%  41%  44%    SnyderBrian     RomeroJ.C.    ThorntonMatt
RingRoyce       RP     10%  43%  47%        GlynnEd   JordanRicardo   LovingierKevin
SanchezEduardo   RP     10%  43%  47%    BowlesBrian     KoploveMike     SnyderBill
OstlundIan       RP     7%  42%  52%    ShouseBrian     MacDonaldBob   DarensbourgVic
LohseKyle       SP     10%  54%  35%    TerrellWalt     JohnsonJason   DriskillTravis
GarciaJaime     SP     17%  42%  41%    PerkinsVince   AffeldtJeremy     FilsonPete
LynnLance       SP     8%  48%  44%    SellersJeff   MendozaReynol   SeminaraFrank
PerezOneli       RP     2%  27%  71%    StevensDave   StephensJason       JonesJeff
SchererMatt     RP     3%  29%  69%    PhillipsTony   RenfroeLaddie     LizRadhames
WellemeyerTodd   SP     2%  38%  60%    SturtzeTanyon       LewisJim   FernandezJared
WaltersP.J.      SP     4%  33%  63%      CrouchMatt       MecheGil     KimSun-Woo
MacLaneEvan     SP     1%  20%  79%    MarshallRandy       LeekRandy     ShouseBrian
BoggsMitchell     SP     0%  21%  78%      WhiteSean     RobinsonDon     FulchinoJeff
HearneTrey       SP     0%  12%  88%      BauerPeter   CallawayMickey     JonesMarcus
SamuelFrancisco   RP     1%  13%  86%      LangdonTed   PimentelRafael       BanksJosh
OttavinoAdam     SP     0%  9%  90%    BridgesDonnie     BuckleLarry     JeffersonJim
KulikRyan       SP     0%  7%  93%    CromerJason     DicksonJason     IsenbergKurt
NorrickTyler     SP     0%  9%  91%      MillsRyan     RoqueRafael     GrayDennis

Player         130 ERA+  100 ERA+  K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9

<1
WainwrightAdam 52% 94% 50% 9% 96%
CarpenterChris 43% 89% 6% 37% 86%
MillerTrever 42% 78% 72% 5% 73%
FranklinRyan 28% 74% 2% 12% 73%
McClellanKyle 20% 74% 10% 1% 84%
SmoltzJohn 18% 69% 51% 47% 65%
ReyesDennys 31% 69% 33% 2% 75%
MotteJason 14% 60% 87% 0% 50%
HawksworthBlake 9% 49% 2% 2% 65%
ManningCharlie 10% 48% 26% 0% 67%
RingRoyce 10% 45% 26% 0% 63%
SanchezEduardo 7% 45% 27% 0% 58%
OstlundIan 7% 41% 8% 8% 49%
LohseKyle 1% 29% 0% 8% 46%
GarciaJaime 5% 33% 13% 1% 48%
LynnLance 1% 21% 0% 0% 49%
PerezOneli 2% 24% 14% 0% 39%
SchererMatt 2% 20% 0% 5% 53%
WellemeyerTodd 0% 10% 1% 0% 26%
WaltersP.J. 1% 12% 5% 0% 30%
MacLaneEvan 0% 5% 0% 38% 17%
BoggsMitchell 0% 4% 0% 0% 51%
HearneTrey 0% 2% 0% 0% 39%
SamuelFrancisco 1% 7% 67% 0% 62%
OttavinoAdam 0% 1% 0% 0% 40%
KulikRyan 0% 1% 0% 0% 28%
NorrickTyler 0% 2% 1% 0% 32%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name           BA OBP SLG   G   AB     R     H   2B 3B   HR RBI   BB   SO SB CS OPS+
PujolsAlbert   .324 .424 .600 2776 10110   2011   3278 701 21 681 2312 1706   1186 96 49 168

Player         W   L   S   ERA     G   GS   IP     H   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
CarpenterChris   152   99   0 3.83   364   344 2262   2259   225   649   1695   116
LohseKyle       124   137   0 4.68   415   386 2251   2481   284   696   1401   94
WainwrightAdam   165   120   3 3.71   427   364 2422   2445   225   762   1934   115

All figures in % based on projection playing time

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

 

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Indians

Mariners

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees




These projections were sponsored in part by:

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Dan Szymborski Posted: January 27, 2010 at 08:35 PM | 54 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. bjhanke Posted: January 27, 2010 at 08:56 PM (#3447963)
Being from STL, I was going to write a longish comment, but these are just real good predictions, IMO. I do think that Ludwick, hitting behind Pujols and Holliday, may overperform on RBI, but that's about it. And he's a pain to predict anyway because of the injury history. I mean, you can, in theory, treat 2009 as a Sophomore Slump, although the player was 30 years old. Anyway, nice job. - Brock
   2. FP Santangelo was underappreciated Posted: January 27, 2010 at 09:02 PM (#3447974)
No ODDIBE for Rich Hill? I'm curious as to what kind of upside he has left.
   3. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 27, 2010 at 09:08 PM (#3447982)
Suffice it to say, Pujols has by far the best projection of any hitter I've done so far (Astros, A's, Angels, Jays, Brewers, Braves to go). By my count, Pujols has a 33-point lead in OPS+, 19 points in OBP, 63 points in SLG and 2.41 runs created/27 outs.
   4. heyyoo Posted: January 27, 2010 at 09:26 PM (#3448009)
The metronome like quality of his excellence will do that.
   5. Juan V Posted: January 27, 2010 at 09:27 PM (#3448013)
PujolsAlbert .324 .424 .600 2776 10110 2011 3278 701 21 681 2312 1706 1186 96 49 168


So, is this a Hall of Fame career? :-)
   6. jfish26101 Posted: January 27, 2010 at 09:31 PM (#3448018)
Manny still 2nd in terms of hitters?
   7. Mike Green Posted: January 27, 2010 at 09:40 PM (#3448028)
"Suffice it to say, Pujols has by far the best projection of any hitter I've done so far (Astros, A's, Angels, Jays, Brewers, Braves to go)."

Oh, that explains it. Vernon Wells yet to come- some long-term contracts work out better than others.
   8. Forsch 10 From Navarone (Dayn) Posted: January 27, 2010 at 09:46 PM (#3448045)
Yeah, these look largely spot-on to me. I might take the under on Ludwick in terms of OPS+, and I think Penny will be a bit better than projected. The bullpen and bench are my primary concerns.
   9. bjhanke Posted: January 27, 2010 at 09:50 PM (#3448050)
"So, is this a Hall of Fame career? :-)"

Well, Albert has to pile some up so he can lend about a quarter of it to Yadier Molina and get both of them in.
   10. A triple short of the cycle Posted: January 27, 2010 at 09:51 PM (#3448051)
701 career doubles would be 5th-most ever.
   11. Jose Molina wants a nickname like "A-Rod" Posted: January 27, 2010 at 11:44 PM (#3448217)
Anyone have any idea why Rasmus' second half sucked? I'll still take the over though.
   12. Moses Taylor, Moses Taylor Posted: January 27, 2010 at 11:54 PM (#3448226)
I would bet a large sum of money that Dave Duncan will fix Rich Hill.
   13. Patriot87 Posted: January 27, 2010 at 11:54 PM (#3448227)
Pujols is the king.
   14. Honkie Kong Posted: January 27, 2010 at 11:58 PM (#3448233)
That Pujols projection is insane. It boggles the mind, in fact, you could say it was mind boggling!!

185 OPS+ is the highest I have seen in the period I have been following ZiPS projections. Is this a historical record , Dan? Or did one of the Bonds seasons creep over? What about in terms of raw OPS?
   15. Rays&Sox; Posted: January 28, 2010 at 12:02 AM (#3448237)
Rasmus had a deep heel bruise that hampered him most of the second half. He took 4 cortisone shots in the heel to keep playing. I'll take the over also.
   16. JPWF13 Posted: January 28, 2010 at 12:22 AM (#3448256)
Holliday's 3 comps are a troika of cliff divers
   17. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 28, 2010 at 12:22 AM (#3448257)
Projected OPSs over 1 since 2004 (2002 and 2003 were lost due to a computer crash):

1.231 - Bonds, 2005
1.162 - Bonds, 2006
1.141 - Bonds, 2004
1.115 - Pujols, 2004
1.094 - Pujols, 2005
1.085 - Pujols, 2006
1.077 - Pujols, 2010
1.076 - Helton, 2004
1.065 - Helton, 2005
1.066 - Pujols, 2007
1.038 - Pujols, 2009
1.028 - Helton, 2006
1.028 - Howard, 2008
1.024 - Howard, 2007
1.025 - Pujols, 2008
1.022 - Hafner, 2007
1.019 - Ramirez, 2004
1.016 - Ortiz, 2007
1.008 - Ramirez, 2007
1.005 - Giambi, 2004
1.002 - Bonds, 2007
   18. danielj Posted: January 28, 2010 at 12:30 AM (#3448267)
How many ways are there to say Pujols is great? He has a 98% chance of having an OPS+ of 140? 98%? Holy crap.
   19. Honkie Kong Posted: January 28, 2010 at 12:35 AM (#3448270)

1.231 - Bonds, 2005
1.162 - Bonds, 2006
1.141 - Bonds, 2004
1.115 - Pujols, 2004
1.094 - Pujols, 2005
1.085 - Pujols, 2006
1.077 - Pujols, 2010
1.076 - Helton, 2004
1.065 - Helton, 2005
1.066 - Pujols, 2007
1.038 - Pujols, 2009
1.028 - Helton, 2006
1.028 - Howard, 2008
1.024 - Howard, 2007
1.025 - Pujols, 2008
1.022 - Hafner, 2007
1.019 - Ramirez, 2004
1.016 - Ortiz, 2007
1.008 - Ramirez, 2007
1.005 - Giambi, 2004
1.002 - Bonds, 2007



Whats the PF for old Busch compared to new Busch? Or were those projected as higher scoring leagues?

Bonds 2005 is nutters.
   20. BobbyS Posted: January 28, 2010 at 12:44 AM (#3448281)
Funny, there are at least 3 guys on that list from each year, 2004-2007, 2 from 2008, yet only one (Pujols) from 2009 and 2010.
   21. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 28, 2010 at 12:52 AM (#3448287)
So Smoltz would still be a good idea for this team...or anyone really.
   22. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 28, 2010 at 01:20 AM (#3448306)
The funny thing is that ZiPS still missed low on 2 of those 4 Bonds years!
   23. frannyzoo Posted: January 28, 2010 at 01:33 AM (#3448316)
I was expecting the Pujols (note the deft avoidance of the Pujols' Pujols's question) comps to be:

God, Buddha, Babe Ruth

instead of Frank Thomas, Eddie Murray and Boog. Kind of a letdown. I love the Holliday Larry Hisle reference, however.
   24. bjhanke Posted: January 28, 2010 at 01:37 AM (#3448322)
Jimenez the Great asks, "Anyone have any idea why Rasmus' second half sucked? I'll still take the over though."

He was hurt in the second half. That being said, the over is dangerous, because he's due for Sophomore Slump.

Holliday strikes me as a hard guy to comp. His homers are in an odd range, especially coupled with his batting averages, and his defense is weird - not bad, just weird. The famous fly ball error in the postseason was on one of the hardest plays to make - a line drive headed right towards the family jewels. There's no good way to get the glove vertical. Try what your wrist will, it's going to end up horizontaI, either right side up or wrong. It doesn't give you much coverage if the ball moves even a little. I still (oversharing alert) have one testicle twice the size of the other from having one of those hit an air pocket and slide under the glove. It took me 45 minutes to begin to crawl out of the fetal position, and I've never played or practiced a sport since without wearing a cup. The way, I found out, to catch those things is to move a step to the side and avoid keeping your body right in front of it. That way, you can hold the glove out to the side and get it vertical. But outfielders are taught to stay in front of the ball if possible, because if you miss, it goes to the wall.

The new Busch seems to be about neutral, although I don't know if we have enough years yet to be sure. Dan, what does your system say? - Brock
   25. Spahn Insane Posted: January 28, 2010 at 01:53 AM (#3448343)
Feckin' Pujols. Guy could miss his zips projection by 20% and still win an MVP.
   26. Spahn Insane Posted: January 28, 2010 at 01:55 AM (#3448344)
Hill's with the Cardinals? #### me.
   27. Juan V Posted: January 28, 2010 at 01:59 AM (#3448349)
If it isn't too much to ask... what are Albert's chances for a 200 OPS+
   28. Accent Shallow Posted: January 28, 2010 at 02:15 AM (#3448356)
It's absolutely mind blowing that Pujols is projected to slug .635, when it seems other major sluggers are projected <.550. The man is incredible.

(I don't buy Manny as the second best hitter in MLB, but so it goes, right?)
   29. morineko Posted: January 28, 2010 at 03:25 AM (#3448399)
Duncan may be able to fix Hill, but there's no guarantee the fix will stick even if he stays with the Cards for multiple years--see Todd Wellemeyer.
   30. buccosmfg Posted: January 28, 2010 at 03:14 PM (#3448543)
As pathetic as it is bound to be, I was hoping to see a projection for Khalil Greene. I know he isn't with the team anymore, but he signed after the Ranger projections were posted. I he somewhere else that I missed, will there be a catch-all posted at the end or am S.O.L. on a projection for him?
   31. azruavatar Posted: January 28, 2010 at 03:23 PM (#3448548)
Kyle McClellan will be 26 rather than 31 next year.
   32. RJ in TO Posted: January 28, 2010 at 03:36 PM (#3448555)
I still (oversharing alert) have one testicle twice the size of the other from having one of those hit an air pocket and slide under the glove.


Looks like it's time to link this thread again.
   33. danup Posted: January 29, 2010 at 09:55 AM (#3449520)
Tyler Greene's odds really got worse after his relatively decent 2009?
   34. bjhanke Posted: January 29, 2010 at 04:33 PM (#3449662)
One thing I don't like about these projections is how low the walks are. I don't mean that I think the projections are off; I think the Cardinals have a weakness in their lineup. As a rule of thumb, you can take a batter's AB, drop the last digit (the easy way to divide by ten with no rounding), and get just about what the league will generate in walks for that many AB. For example, courtesy of BB-Ref, the NL had 33.93 AB per game in 2009, and 3.45 walks, which is rule of thumb close to a tenth of 33.93. In these projections, Albert Pujols projects to 531 AB and 102 walks. The league should do about 53 walks against 531 AB, so Albert projects to spend a lot of the summer strolling to first. It's not perfect, but it's a rule of thumb that has held up at the rule of thumb level since 1934. No, I have no idea why NL walk rates changed (they went up) in the exact year 1934 and then stayed up, but they did.

Anyway, eyeballing the list of players here, there are only three who project to take more than the league average number of walks: Pujols, Holliday, and Ruben Gotay, who is unlikely to play much. That's not a good thing for any lineup, and Tony has tended to build his lineups around power and walks. Somewhere along the line the last few years, the walks have gone missing. I don't know why a team with a bunch of brand new sabermetricians in house has allowed this to happen, but it has. Good thing I think Tony La Russa's teams have always won or lost with their veteran starting pitching.... - Brock
   35. Moses Taylor, Moses Taylor Posted: January 29, 2010 at 10:49 PM (#3450189)
Duncan may be able to fix Hill, but there's no guarantee the fix will stick even if he stays with the Cards for multiple years--see Todd Wellemeyer.

Rich Hill has a lot more talent and had a lot more success prior to the Cards. I think a lot of his problems are mental more than physical, so it's not like Duncan has to create something out of nothing.
   36. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 29, 2010 at 10:54 PM (#3450195)
What, no McGwire projection?

Also, Dan, is it too much trouble to run a career projection for Pujols? If not I'd love to see it.
   37. phredbird Posted: January 29, 2010 at 11:25 PM (#3450234)
ray, there's one in there. its easy to miss, albert is the only position player they did.
   38. phredbird Posted: January 29, 2010 at 11:27 PM (#3450237)
funny thing about the projection. if albert's career follows the projection, no way he doesn't get to hang around to get to 700 HR.
   39. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 29, 2010 at 11:32 PM (#3450250)
Heh.
   40. xeifrank Posted: February 03, 2010 at 01:48 AM (#3453039)
Without some more starting pitching depth and a solid 3rd starter behind the two studs, the Cardinals may struggle to repeat as winners in the NL Central. Opening the door for a team like the Cubs.
vr, Xei
   41. Accent Shallow Posted: February 03, 2010 at 02:46 AM (#3453063)
solid 3rd starter


I dunno, they have both Penny and Smoltz in these projections (note: Smoltz is still an FA). That's legendary depth, or so the writers forecasting the 2009 Red Sox would have me believe.
   42. Ben V-L Posted: February 04, 2010 at 02:46 PM (#3453885)
I share Brock's concern about the walks, but I disagree with his characterization of TLR as being aware of the utility of walks. TLR liked McGwire, and clearly McGwire was a big 3-true-outcomes guy. But consider the very solid Ray Lankford, who was very much a walks and power kind of player, who TLR pushed out in favor of much less productive, non-walking hitters like Shawon Dunston and Craig Paquette. TLR seems willing to give a lot of PA to unproductive hitters (check out McGee's '99 season) as long as their batting average stays over .250. When Lankford's dropped below .250, he was dropped.

The point of my comment being: this team is low on walking potential BECAUSE of TLR, not in spite of him.
   43. cardsfanboy Posted: February 24, 2010 at 06:27 AM (#3466745)
daniel descalso has a 10% chance of hitting .300 in the majors, 2% chance of hitting 45 doubles??? who the heck is he, never heard of him, and as a cardinal fan, for a guy to have that level percentage just points out to flaws of the system probabaly.
   44. BobbyS Posted: February 24, 2010 at 08:29 AM (#3466788)
I'd say Descalso's line looks pretty reasonable. He was a 3rd round pick just a few years ago and hit well over .300 in AA last season before moving to AAA. He's had decent walk rates and ok K rates...a 10% chance of it doesn't seem too far fetched at all. Wouldn't be surprised at all if he saw some time in the majors this year.
   45. cardsfanboy Posted: February 25, 2010 at 03:39 AM (#3467651)
I don't have a clue what his potential is or anything, my point is that he is an unheralded prospect that if I listed 20 Cardinal prospects a year ago, wouldn't have touched a radar, heck I think I could have gone 40 deep and not hit him...... don't get me wrong I'll root for anyone we get, it's funny that in the 1990's, the Cardinals were second to the Braves in the number of players who have made the majors even though they were constantly called one of the worse minor leagues in baseball. (producing prospects is not the same as producing major league talent)
   46. Barnaby Jones Posted: February 25, 2010 at 07:06 AM (#3467770)
Descalso made the Cardinals top 10 for both BA and BP this year. That you haven't heard of him has more to do with you than ZiPS.
   47. cardsfanboy Posted: February 26, 2010 at 01:59 AM (#3468509)
post 46, wow, nice unwarranted attack. I'm not complaining about zips or anything, just saying that a year ago(noticed what I typed in 45) Descalso was an unheralded prospect that wasn't on many radars.
   48. esseff Posted: February 26, 2010 at 02:18 AM (#3468511)
Descalso played for the U.S. in the World Cup last September and then in the AFL (though not particularly well). He got put on a fast track after the blistering start at Double-A last year. One asset he has over other Cardinal infield prospects like Greene, Solano, Kozma and the departed guys like Hoffpauir and Barden is that he hits lefty. For the Bay Area folk, he's also a St. Francis Lancer and UC Davis Aggie.
   49. spycake Posted: February 26, 2010 at 02:31 AM (#3468516)
- 3/26 - ???
- 3/27 - PROFIT!
   50. cardsfanboy Posted: February 26, 2010 at 02:38 AM (#3468520)
Dan....for those of us using your sims in Diamond mind leagues, are you going to clear out projections of players who retired after you posted your projections? (not sure there are any there, but just want to check as my league is still doing free agents and it would suck if I lost a player that had a projection then retired)


also, in case it hasn't been said enough....great job.
   51. cardsfanboy Posted: February 26, 2010 at 02:52 AM (#3468529)
I'm talking about guys you have already projected in your earlier write ups, say Brian GIles announces his retirement tomorrow, do you remove him from your final projections or keep him on the list?
   52. Accent Shallow Posted: February 26, 2010 at 02:54 AM (#3468530)
I'd just like to chime in here that the percentiles (such as referenced upthread, that someone like Daniel Descalso has a 10% chance to hit .300 in the majors) are one of the things that makes ZiPS really cool. I think everyone here has seen enough MLEs at some point to know that someone hitting well below AAA is generally projected to hit something like .250/.300/.400 in MLB, so it's nice to get a handle, however small, on potential breakouts.

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