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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Tampa Bay Rays

After staying 6 games out or so for most of the season, the Rays folded faster than Maxime Weygand once Carlos Pena’s year ended early.  Thanks to some pretty bad offensive holes that they weren’t expecting in center, right, and DH, the Rays didn’t quite have the offense they were hoping.  A 102 OPS+ is perfectly respectable for a team, but with Longoria, Pena, Bartlett, and Crawford having solid seasons and an MVP-ish outburst from Zobrist, the team could’ve had the 2nd-best offense in the league if the supporting cast had pulled their weight.

The good news is that there are no structural issues in the Rays organization that should keep the team from doing bettr than 84 wins in 2010.  CF, RF, and DH should get dead cat bounces that will compensate for Zobrist not being a superstar, but the team is going to have to answer some questions behind the plate.  Navarro can be a solid contributor, but unless he’s going to tell his team ahead of time that he’s about to hit like a pitcher for 4 months, he’s of little use as a starter.

Offensive Projections

Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Carlos Pena*        1b 32 .243 .366 .524 137 481 79 117 26 2 35 93 86 155 2 1   136
Evan Longoria         3b 24 .272 .351 .525 152 570 88 155 40 1 34 104 66 139 8 0   131
Ben Zobrist#        2b 29 .261 .356 .443 121 418 63 109 20 4 16 52 61 81 12 4   113
Carl Crawford*        lf 28 .293 .344 .444 138 556 84 163 27 9 13 67 40 90 45 11   110
Joe Dillon           1b 34 .275 .352 .408 82 240 38 66 12 1 6 30 25 35 3 1   104
Jason Bartlett       ss 30 .286 .345 .405 132 482 66 138 26 5 7 44 39 78 20 6   101
B.J. Upton           cf 25 .260 .347 .410 144 547 83 142 33 2 15 65 72 150 35 14   103
Pat Burrell         dh 33 .230 .337 .415 132 448 52 103 21 1 20 68 73 123 1 0   101
Willy Aybar#        1b 27 .257 .332 .417 115 369 42 95 21 1 12 44 38 56 1 2   100
Chris Richard*        1b 36 .248 .326 .414 100 355 45 88 18 1 13 48 36 87 3 1   97
Akinori Iwamura*      2b 30 .268 .347 .373 136 557 84 149 25 8 6 39 67 122 9 6   93
Gabe Gross*          rf 30 .237 .330 .397 124 295 37 70 16 2 9 36 41 73 4 2   95
Desmond Jennings       cf 23 .264 .330 .371 99 394 55 104 18 3 6 30 35 63 28 7   88
Gabe Kapler         rf 34 .252 .320 .416 93 202 26 51 13 1 6 28 20 35 4 2   96
Gregg Zaun#          c   39 .237 .335 .367 94 278 29 66 15 0 7 26 40 48 1 1   89
Matthew Joyce*        rf 25 .235 .313 .407 129 455 54 107 27 3 15 50 50 124 7 5   91
John Jaso*          c   26 .265 .336 .351 112 396 45 105 17 1 5 40 40 55 1 1   86
Sean Rodriguez       2b 25 .229 .308 .400 128 462 63 106 22 3 17 55 43 135 7 3   89
Jon Weber*          lf 32 .253 .315 .381 100 383 42 97 23 1 8 39 33 79 5 5   86
Justin Ruggiano       cf 28 .238 .301 .369 124 453 56 108 22 2 11 51 37 136 17 5   79
Dioner Navarro#      c   26 .248 .302 .367 116 395 41 98 21 1 8 41 28 56 3 2   79
Chris Nowak         3b 27 .247 .306 .342 122 474 50 117 23 2 6 51 36 98 7 4   74
Michel Hernandez       c   31 .258 .307 .335 64 209 23 54 8 1 2 20 14 26 1 1   73
Shawn Riggans         c   29 .239 .290 .362 47 163 16 39 8 0 4 19   9 33 1 1   74
Reid Brignac*        ss 24 .244 .286 .359 122 479 49 117 27 2 8 39 27 97 6 5   72
Henry Mateo#        2b 33 .243 .304 .326 73 267 29 65 12 2 2 14 22 52 11 5   70
Fernando Perez#      cf 27 .242 .309 .317 91 347 52 84 11 3 3 18 33 100 20 9   69
Elliot Johnson#      2b 26 .230 .281 .351 99 370 39 85 15 3 8 32 24 98 10 5   69
Rashad Eldridge#      lf 28 .241 .301 .309 115 440 48 106 17 2 3 35 35 95 12 8   65
Jose Lobaton#        c   25 .224 .278 .328 84 290 26 65 13 1 5 24 22 87 0 0   62
Ray Olmedo#          3b 29 .247 .285 .314 118 401 35 99 14 2 3 31 20 65 8 7   61

Defensive Projections

Name           CThr 1b     2b     3b     ss     lf     cf     rf    
Pena*            Av/98                                  
Longoria                     Ex/88                      
Zobrist#                Vg/82   Av/82   Av/146 Vg/73   Av/73   Vg/73  
Crawford*                                Ex/92            
Dillon             Av/121 Pr/121 Fr/92       Av/116            
Bartlett                           Av/118                
Upton                   Pr/189                 Vg/114      
Burrell                                 Pr/138            
Aybar#            Av/74   Av/121 Av/101                      
Richard*          Fr/144                 Fr/84            
Iwamura*                Av/76   Av/73                      
Gross*                                  Av/99   Fr/99   Av/99  
Jennings                                     Vg/102      
Kapler                                 Av/95   Fr/95   Vg/95  
Zaun#          Fr                                      
Joyce*                                  Av/117 Pr/130 Av/117
Jaso*          Fr                                      
Rodriguez               Vg/103       Av/112 Av/99   Fr/99   Av/99  
Weber*                                  Av/131 Pr/145 Fr/145
Ruggiano                                 Vg/98   Fr/44   Av/136
Navarro#        Av                                      
Nowak             Av/131       Fr/105       Av/122       Av/122
Hernandez       Fr                                      
Riggans         Fr                                      
Brignac*                Av/121       Av/117                
Mateo#                  Fr/136       Fr/136 Fr/121 Fr/121 Fr/121
Perez#                                  Vg/121 Vg/121 Vg/121
Johnson#                Av/164 Av/164 Fr/180 Av/125 Fr/125 Av/125
Eldridge#                                Vg/90   Av/118 Vg/69  
Lobaton#        Fr                                      
Olmedo#                Fr/121 Fr/106 Fr/123                

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name           PO   EX   VG   AV   FR   PO       COMP 1       COMP 2       COMP 3
LongoriaEvan     3B   66%  28%  5%  1%  0%    RolenScott   CliftHarlond   WrightDavid
PenaCarlos       1B   41%  34%  15%  7%  2%  NicholsonBill     HeathJeff     TenaceGene
CrawfordCarl     LF   26%  41%  21%  11%  2%  RichardsGene   FinleySteve   WebsterMitch
ZobristBen       2B   58%  23%  12%  6%  1%  McAuliffeDick   PhillipsTony     FreyLonny
BartlettJason     SS   38%  33%  22%  6%  1%    LugoJulio   LarkinBarry   FernandezTony
DillonJoe       1B   1%  11%  23%  43%  22%  CavarrettaPhil     MormanRuss     JohnsonRoy
UptonB.J.      CF   22%  23%  33%  17%  5%    AllisonBob   BradleyMilton     BurksEllis
AybarWilly       1B   2%  4%  10%  40%  44%    SeguiDavid     LaCockPete     LarkinGene
BurrellPat       DH   3%  10%  16%  40%  32%  FielderCecil     SalmonTim     TracyAndy
RichardChris     1B   3%  6%  14%  36%  41%  McQuinnGeorge   CroweGeorge     HodgesGil
JenningsDesmond   CF   5%  15%  37%  33%  10%    DernierBob   PiersallJim GrissomMarquis
KaplerGabe       RF   3%  9%  13%  26%  49%    KennedyBob     NorenIrv   SoltersMoose
IwamuraAkinori   2B   10%  14%  22%  30%  25% DeShieldsDelino MorandiniMickey   NewhanDavid
GrossGabe       RF   1%  5%  11%  26%  57%    MooreGene CarpenterBubba   DellucciDavid
JoyceMatthew     RF   0%  2%  5%  17%  77%    AllredBeau     SkubeBob LangerhansRyan
RodriguezSean     2B   3%  9%  19%  34%  34%    RaburnRyan       MackRay   GinterKeith
ZaunGregg       C   5%  18%  28%  33%  16%    SchangWally   FerrellRick     MancusoGus
JasoJohn         C   3%  11%  27%  42%  17%  ThompsonTommy ChristmasSteve   DalrympleClay
WeberJon       LF   0%  1%  3%  9%  87%    MooreGene     ZarillaAl     SwannPedro
RuggianoJustin   CF   3%  4%  10%  29%  55%      PorterBo   LoweryTerrell   PorterColin
NavarroDioner     C   2%  4%  12%  39%  45%    RodgersBuck     PenaBrayan BarrettMichael
NowakChris       3B   0%  1%  2%  7%  90%    BertoiaReno   SpringerSteve   JurgesBilly
HernandezMichel   C   0%  1%  4%  25%  70%    AstrothJoeHargreavesCharli     SpohrerAl
RiggansShawn     C   0%  1%  7%  36%  56%    MolinaIzzy MakarewiczScott   HammockRobby
BrignacReid     SS   0%  1%  5%  23%  70% QuintanillaOmar     BerraDale   RamirezRafael
MateoHenry       2B   0%  0%  1%  6%  93%  CandaeleCasey     AliceaLuis     BarrettTom
PerezFernando     CF   0%  1%  3%  12%  85%    EspyCecil     ScottTony   TorresAndres
JohnsonElliot     2B   0%  0%  1%  6%  93%    CrespoCesar     DavisKevin MercedesVictor
EldridgeRashad   LF   0%  0%  0%  0%  100%      FoxEric   GilbertMark   NunezAbraham
LobatonJose       C   0%  0%  0%  4%  96%  HemphillBret   SwisherSteve   McGriffTerry
OlmedoRay       3B   0%  0%  0%  1%  99%    HolkeWalter   WilliamsGlenn DallimoreBrian

Name         .300 BA .375 OBP.500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB
LongoriaEvan       13%    16%    70%    27%    18%    0%    71%    0%
PenaCarlos         5%    35%    56%    38%    0%    0%    71%    0%
CrawfordCarl       41%    10%    13%    4%    1%    82%    1%    98%
ZobristBen         9%    25%    13%    7%    0%    3%    2%    0%
BartlettJason       31%    12%    2%    1%    1%    31%    0%    7%
DillonJoe         22%    20%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
UptonB.J.          5%    18%    3%    4%    6%    0%    1%    77%
AybarWilly         6%    4%    5%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BurrellPat         1%    9%    3%    2%    0%    0%    10%    0%
RichardChris       4%    6%    5%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%
JenningsDesmond     9%    4%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    39%
KaplerGabe         9%    9%    6%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%
IwamuraAkinori     14%    11%    0%    1%    0%    20%    0%    0%
GrossGabe         1%    5%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
JoyceMatthew       0%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
RodriguezSean       0%    0%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ZaunGregg         3%    13%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
JasoJohn           9%    10%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
WeberJon           4%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
RuggianoJustin       1%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    2%
NavarroDioner       2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
NowakChris         1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HernandezMichel     11%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
RiggansShawn       5%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BrignacReid         1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
MateoHenry         2%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
PerezFernando       3%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    5%
JohnsonElliot       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
EldridgeRashad       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
LobatonJose         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
OlmedoRay         2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Jamie Shields         28   3.94 13 10 34 34   226.1 227   99 28   47 173 113
Matt Garza           26   3.95 12 10 34 34   202.2 197   89 23   76 172 112
Wade Davis           24   4.58 10 11 34 34   182.2 181   93 20   61 137   97
David Price*          24   4.63   9 10 29 27   145.2 143   75 20   66 113   95
Jeff Niemann         27   4.65   9 10 30 29   162.2 169   84 21   62 110   95
Jeremy Hellickson       23   4.67   6   7 24 24   123.1 127   64 20   34   98   95
Carlos Hernandez*      30   4.88   3   4 14 13   66.1   74   36   7   29   37   91
Jason Cromer*        29   5.21   5   8 29 17   105.1 128   61 11   42   49   85
Mitch Talbot         26   5.29   6 10 22 21   115.2 134   68 13   44   65   84
Andrew Sonnanstine     27   5.34 10 15 33 32   187.0 211 111 27   45 115   83
Heath Rollins         25   5.56   7 13 30 25   144.0 167   89 23   52   74   80
Jacob McGee*          23   5.71   3   5 16 16   63.0   65   40   9   35   45   77
James Houser*        25   6.35   2   6 19 18   83.2   92   59 15   55   43   70

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
J.P. Howell*          27   3.28   7   4 72   0   79.2   62   29   8   37   89 136
Russ Springer         41   3.86   3   2 70   0   53.2   52   23   6   19   49 117
Chad Bradford         35   3.89   3   2 51   0   41.2   48   18   3   11   17 114
Grant Balfour         32   3.91   4   4 66   0   69.0   56   30   7   35   76 112
Lance Cormier         29   4.09   3   3 54   0   83.2   86   38   7   32   47 109
Winston Abreu         33   4.13   3   3 52   0   65.1   59   30   8   28   67 107
Dan Wheeler           32   4.18   5   5 67   0   60.1   54   28 10   17   50 106
Joe Nelson           35   4.24   3   3 62   0   63.2   57   30   9   33   57 104
Brian Shouse*        41   4.26   2   1 57   0   38.0   41   18   4   12   22 103
Jason Isringhausen     37   4.41   1   2 35   0   34.2   34   17   3   18   24 100
Dale Thayer           29   4.54   3   4 58   0   69.1   75   35   7   27   42   97
Randy Choate*        34   4.60   2   2 56   1   47.0   48   24   5   20   30   96
Troy Percival         40   4.61   1   1 30   0   27.1   25   14   4   13   22   96
Joe Bateman           30   4.75   3   3 43   1   60.2   61   32   6   34   42   93
Jeff Bennett         30   4.95   4   5 58   7   83.2   95   46   9   49   48   90
Jason Childers         35   5.01   4   5 49   0   59.1   64   33   8   24   36   89
Eduardo Morlan         24   5.58   4   6 43   0   59.2   66   37   9   31   39   79
Julio DePaula         27   5.99   3   6 56   3   82.2   95   55 13   50   47   74

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player         PO     TOP   MID   BOT         COMP 1         COMP 2         COMP 3
HowellJ.P.      RP     71%  27%  2%      MyersRandy     RockerJohn     WagnerBilly
SpringerRuss     RP     45%  40%  15%    AndersenLarry     PaigeSatchel       ReedRon
BradfordChad     RP     42%  38%  20%    QuantrillPaul       LockerBob       KlineRon
ShieldsJames     SP     60%  38%  2%  EckersleyDennis       SheetsBen     HarenDanny
BalfourGrant     RP     33%  50%  18%      DurenRyne   KershnerJason       ClearMark
GarzaMatt       SP     54%  44%  2%    GreeneTommy     McDowellJack       WelchBob
CormierLance     RP     28%  54%  18%      BuddieMike     DeJeanMike     WilliamsTodd
AbreuWinston     RP     23%  53%  24%  FarnsworthKyle     JacksonMike     LockwoodSkip
WheelerDan       RP     21%  54%  25%    ReardonJeff   SpradlinJerry     FoulkeKeith
NelsonJoe       RP     19%  48%  33%    BerenguerJuan     StoddardTim     DeLuciaRich
ShouseBrian     RP     33%  31%  35%      GroomBuddy     HaddixHarvey   HoneycuttRick
IsringhausenJason RP     23%  34%  44%  CarraraGiovanni     SeguiDiego HernandezRoberto
PercivalTroy     RP     26%  38%  37%      HarrisGreg       BairDoug     McMahonDon
ThayerDale       RP     10%  46%  44%      BuddieMike     WilliamsTodd   WilliamsonMark
DavisWade       SP     18%  63%  18%    FernandezAlex   CastilloFrank     JonesBobby
ChoateRandy     RP     17%  41%  42%  SchoeneweisScott     McClureBob     AgostoJuan
NiemannJeff     SP     15%  62%  23%    HudsonCharles   HernandezManny     ThomsonJohn
PriceDavid       SP     17%  59%  24% HitchcockSterling     CapuanoChris     SaundersTony
HellicksonJeremy   SP     20%  55%  25%    BoydOil Can       HaasMoose     ReyesAnthony
BatemanJoe       RP     6%  44%  50%    WilkinsMarc     DoughertyJim     CamachoErnie
HernandezCarlos   SP     15%  38%  48%    JacksonDanny     HamptonMike   AndersonJimmy
BennettJeff     RP     4%  36%  60%    BumsteadMike       FioreTony       ZuberBill
ChildersJason     RP     7%  28%  65%    BullingerKirk     BarlowRicky     HergesMatt
CromerJason     SP     7%  34%  59%    GuettermanLee   BlasingameWade   AndersonJimmy
TalbotMitch     SP     3%  37%  60%      LaCossMike       HillShawn       ScottMike
SonnanstineAndy   SP     3%  36%  61%    SirotkaMike     MarothMike       LeekRandy
RollinsHeath     SP     1%  22%  77%    McKnightTony       SmartJ.D.      FreedDan
MorlanEduardo     RP     1%  18%  81%    CarmonaRafael   BottalicoRicky       BrownMark
McGeeJacob       SP     4%  22%  75%    RogersKevin       ConroyTim     WallaceChris
DePaulaJulio     RP     0%  4%  96%    GaillardEddie     McLearyMarty       BondDaven
WlodarczykMichael RP     0%  3%  97%  BlasingameWade     FloresRandy       FreedMark
HouserJames     SP     0%  5%  95%    WhitakerSteve     WunschKelly     NormandGuy

Player         130 ERA+  100 ERA+  K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9

<1
HowellJ.P. 65% 96% 95% 0% 69%
SpringerRuss 37% 80% 53% 8% 57%
BradfordChad 34% 73% 0% 34% 86%
ShieldsJames 17% 86% 7% 68% 35%
BalfourGrant 26% 78% 95% 0% 77%
GarzaMatt 15% 84% 31% 0% 55%
CormierLance 19% 73% 1% 2% 76%
AbreuWinston 18% 71% 85% 1% 42%
WheelerDan 16% 63% 25% 20% 26%
NelsonJoe 15% 61% 53% 0% 36%
ShouseBrian 26% 57% 2% 32% 56%
IsringhausenJason 23% 56% 10% 2% 75%
PercivalTroy 26% 54% 21% 5% 46%
ThayerDale 7% 49% 0% 1% 71%
DavisWade 3% 45% 6% 2% 53%
ChoateRandy 13% 50% 2% 1% 64%
NiemannJeff 2% 40% 1% 0% 36%
PriceDavid 2% 41% 8% 0% 26%
HellicksonJeremy 3% 42% 16% 16% 13%
BatemanJoe 6% 43% 3% 0% 76%
HernandezCarlos 4% 29% 0% 1% 64%
BennettJeff 3% 30% 1% 0% 64%
ChildersJason 6% 30% 2% 3% 46%
CromerJason 2% 18% 0% 2% 71%
TalbotMitch 0% 14% 0% 1% 61%
SonnanstineAndy 0% 10% 0% 39% 21%
RollinsHeath 0% 4% 0% 1% 14%
MorlanEduardo 1% 11% 1% 0% 28%
McGeeJacob 0% 10% 6% 0% 30%
DePaulaJulio 0% 2% 0% 0% 18%
WlodarczykMichael 0% 3% 0% 0% 51%
HouserJames 0% 1% 0% 0% 10%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name           BA OBP SLG   G   AB     R     H   2B 3B   HR RBI   BB   SO SB CS OPS+
NavarroDioner   .248 .305 .363 1154 3909   411   968 196   9   79 405   299   565 27 18   77
BartlettJason   .277 .339 .385 1683 6045   817   1677 297 56   81 529   501   1008 223 74   93
IwamuraAkinori   .270 .343 .376 851 3328   471   899 166 44   33 235   366   704 68 35   92
LongoriaEvan   .263 .349 .501 2535 9427   1568   2483 628 15 526 1806 1182   2379 112 34 119
PenaCarlos     .237 .351 .491 1845 6372   991   1508 312 31 415 1149 1052   2049 30 24 122
ZobristBen     .250 .344 .424 1383 4723   677   1179 212 42 176 573   669   936 107 48 104
CrawfordCarl   .290 .335 .432 2187 8847   1313   2562 388 153 188 1015   568   1402 669 170 103
UptonB.J.      .250 .339 .388 1864 7036   1032   1760 397 27 174 775   938   1925 407 180   95
BurrellPat     .247 .355 .457 1870 6456   869   1593 337 19 328 1111 1087   1812 11   1 111

Player         W   L   S   ERA     G   GS   IP     H   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
GarzaMatt       164   158   0 4.21   498   495 2960   2838   380   1165   2513   105
ShieldsJames     160   146   0 4.23   452   454 2967   3053   410   680   2300   105
PercivalTroy     36   44   374 3.26   746     1 746   515   91   324   812   143
IsringhausenJas   49   54   320 3.70   711   52 1001   909   81   440   817   115

All figures in % based on projection playing time

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

 

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

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Royals

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White Sox

Yankees




Dan Szymborski Posted: October 28, 2009 at 10:03 PM | 34 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: October 28, 2009 at 11:32 PM (#3368989)
Based on an entirely cursory check of two players, it looks like Longoria is projected to have the lowest career OPS+ of any 500-HR hitter. Which is interesting, considering he's also projected for over 600 doubles and nearly 1200 walks.
   2. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: October 29, 2009 at 12:10 AM (#3369049)
How rare is it for a player so young to project to 500 home runs? It surprised me to see ZiPS projects it.

Also, another question for Dan. When you are extrapolating career statistics, are you just taking the 50% line for every season up until the point that they'd no longer be able to play major league baseball, or is it done differently?
   3. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 29, 2009 at 12:57 AM (#3369170)
Based on an entirely cursory check of two players, it looks like Longoria is projected to have the lowest career OPS+ of any 500-HR hitter.

That's pretty much because 500 homer level has only recently been "available" to non-ridiculous hitters. It's not impossible for one of the 400 guys to have hit 500 home runs in a better environment.
   4. jfish26101 Posted: October 29, 2009 at 02:43 AM (#3369545)
Was I in an alternate universe this year where Zobrist was actually good at the plate? A .950 OPS in the AL and probably the toughest division in baseball and yet his projection doesn't even crack .800? This is right up there with the horrible projection you gave Greinke last year...I certainly am biased but I'm having a hard time believing you are 100% objective looking at these. :(
   5. John DiFool2 Posted: October 29, 2009 at 02:56 AM (#3369621)
Has any young phenom's star fallen as far and as fast as B. J. Upton? .388 projected career slugging?

I also checked out the other 500 men, and only Ernie Banks (122) approaches E-Lo's projected OPS+. That surprised me a little, on both ends; given his still youthful age and current hitting level, I'd take the over on that (as in, a higher average, some more walks, a few more homers).
   6. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: October 29, 2009 at 03:17 AM (#3369709)
Has any young phenom's star fallen as far and as fast as B. J. Upton? .388 projected career slugging?


To me he's the Donovan McNabb of baseball. He could be MVP next year, or he could ride the bench, and neither would be truly surprising.
   7. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: October 29, 2009 at 03:48 AM (#3369787)
I certainly am biased but I'm having a hard time believing you are 100% objective looking at these. :(


If "team"="Tampa Bay Rays" and "player"="Zobrist" then "OPS=798".

I think that's how Dan's subjective computer analysis works, right?
   8. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: October 29, 2009 at 03:50 AM (#3369792)
I love the Satchel Paige comp for Russ Springer.
   9. Walt Davis Posted: October 29, 2009 at 03:53 AM (#3369796)
So ZiPS is projecting another 2.5 seasons for Burrell. If that projection is correct, ZiPS is probably being kind.

Oh, wait, does playing for the Royals still count as time in the majors?
   10. Robinson Cano Plate Like Home Posted: October 29, 2009 at 04:36 AM (#3369831)
Kind of crazy that Bartlett has one great season in his late 20s, and suddenly there's Barry Larkin and Tony Fernandez on his comp list. Is that ZIPS saying he's no fluke?
   11. Walt Davis Posted: October 29, 2009 at 09:58 PM (#3370740)
Dan, Dan, Dan ... when will you bring your vile anti-Zobrist campaign to an end?

Because there's clearly no other rational explanation.

Though I also wouldn't be surprised to find that jfish26101 does live in a different universe than most of us most of the time ... though clearly they've got way cooler names in that universe.

it's not like the human psyche is something you can take a pill and the condition just goes away.

Suicide is painless.

Kind of crazy that Bartlett has one great season in his late 20s, and suddenly there's Barry Larkin and Tony Fernandez on his comp list. Is that ZIPS saying he's no fluke?

ZiPS comps are "recent-season" comps not career comps. So Fernandez makes some sense as from ages 27-29 he was putting up a 100ish OPS+.

But Dan might want to check that the Frinkenator is working right on the Larkin comp because he put up OPS+ of 143, 132, 124 for ages 27-29.

Or, FAR more likely, it's his pro-Bartlett conspiracy ... expect him to come along any minute now with some reasonable-sounding explanation for why Bartlett's 2009 wasn't a fluke.
   12. JPWF13 Posted: October 29, 2009 at 10:50 PM (#3370785)
It's not impossible for one of the 400 guys to have hit 500 home runs in a better environment.


like Kingman?
   13. Shilzzz Posted: October 30, 2009 at 05:23 AM (#3371529)
Really looking forward to San Diego and San Francisco
   14. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: October 30, 2009 at 07:44 AM (#3371550)
it's not like the human psyche is something you can take a pill and the condition just goes away.


Normally I'd have a 4000-word rant about the pharmaceutical industry in response, but it's 4AM, so I'll just settle for "you're right, Dan."
   15. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 05, 2009 at 12:25 AM (#3378000)
Hey, Dan: Why is Iwamura projected for more PT than Bartlett? A guy on another blog asked me, and I couldn't figure out, given that Bartlett has more PT in two of the last three years, including a big edge in 2009.
   16. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 05, 2009 at 12:35 AM (#3378003)
I would like to know what the elections mean for the Rays.
   17. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 05, 2009 at 12:46 AM (#3378013)
Hey, Dan: Why is Iwamura projected for more PT than Bartlett? A guy on another blog asked me, and I couldn't figure out, given that Bartlett has more PT in two of the last three years, including a big edge in 2009.

As an experiment, for playing time purposes, ZiPS assumes that hitters with a huge year-to-year drop in playing time and are above replacement level but with little or no drop in ability are injured and for playing time purposes only, takes those numbers into less account. The 707 PA is a larger-than-usual component for his expected playing time.

Injured hitter playing time recovers, on a year-to-year basis, far, far better than injured pitcher playing time.

As I noted, it's an experiment this year. It's not really a big deal, I'm primarily worried about projecting rates.
   18. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 05, 2009 at 12:55 AM (#3378017)
Thanks! That makes sense - I'll let him know.
   19. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 05, 2009 at 06:00 PM (#3379636)
Where does Jesse Chavez fit in to all this?
   20. Rays&Sox; Posted: November 10, 2009 at 02:47 AM (#3383642)
Is it unusual that Iwamura's projection is exactly the same as last year's right down to the AB's? I would think between adding in another year's stats and aging a year the odds of that would be pretty low?
   21. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 10, 2009 at 11:47 PM (#3384390)
Uh-oh, that's not good!
   22. josehamiton1032 Posted: November 20, 2009 at 08:49 PM (#3392778)
I think that Zobrist will have a better year than what is projected. I do not think that he will fade away and hit .261
   23. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 01, 2009 at 07:19 PM (#3400293)
If you get a chance, Dan, could you run Aneury Rodriguez? I think he's a pretty good bet to go in the Rule 5 this year, and I'm curious to see how he stacks up.
   24. LB813 Posted: January 05, 2010 at 04:08 PM (#3428117)
Im surprised there wasnt a projection for Matthew Moore. Didnt expect a good one or even useable, but thought there would be one. Maybe Alex Cobb too.
   25. Greg K Posted: August 30, 2010 at 07:07 PM (#3630045)
I certainly am biased but I'm having a hard time believing you are 100% objective looking at these. :(

I agree. Clearly Dan took some bribes from Zobrist this off-season.
   26. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: August 30, 2010 at 07:31 PM (#3630073)
Jose Bautista's secret satchel of steriods must have been stolen from Zobrist last September.
   27. Dan Szymborski Posted: August 30, 2010 at 07:37 PM (#3630086)
I had similar arguments about Kung Fu Panda. On another blog, someone seriously argued that since ZiPS missed Sandoval's 2009 OPS by 180 points, that it should be assumed that Sandoval's 2010 would also be missed by 180 points and as ZiPS projected an .884 OPS for 2010, that it was safe to assume that Sandoval was the easy frontrunner for the MVP.
   28. Famous Original Joe C Posted: August 30, 2010 at 07:38 PM (#3630087)
I certainly am biased

Yep!
   29. The Essex Snead Posted: August 30, 2010 at 08:01 PM (#3630128)
[29] I'm thinking Bautista ganked some goodies from Pena's stash as well! And then stepped on his foot & broke his fingers! That bastard!
   30. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: August 30, 2010 at 08:05 PM (#3630132)
And he replaced Lind, Hill and Snider's steriods with sugar pills so he wouldn't have to share the glory.
   31. RJ in TO Posted: August 30, 2010 at 08:07 PM (#3630139)
I've been greatly amused by Carlos Pena's long, slow offensive trip down Rob Deer Blvd.

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