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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, November 05, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Texas Rangers

The Rangers had a pretty good season in 2009, going 87-75 and scaring the Angels for awhile, but the team still has a number of holes to fill, a lot of starting pitcher questions to sort out, and some financial uncertainty going forward.

2009 was not kind to the Rangers vaunted catching depth, with Salty being disappointing, Teagarden even worse, Ramirez, being injured and even worse than the former.  Pudge is just about done and even former Ranger catchers Gerald Laird and Rod Barajas saw their prospects for the future decline considerably.

At this point, the Rangers may have to mostly with the team that they have and while there are a lot of things good about the team, especially Andrus and Feliz, I don’t think they’re good enough to seriously compete for the division without some luck.

Offensive Projections

Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Nelson Cruz         rf 29 .270 .342 .512 133 482 73 130 23 2 30 81 50 120 15 5   116
Ian Kinsler         2b 28 .274 .346 .486 127 508 91 139 30 3 24 71 53 71 25 3   111
Josh Hamilton*        cf 29 .283 .344 .488 106 406 59 115 23 3 18 70 37 86 7 2   111
Michael Young         3b 33 .301 .352 .445 135 559 75 168 35 2 14 70 45 92 8 2   104
Marlon Byrd         cf 32 .283 .339 .450 133 487 64 138 31 4 14 71 35 88 7 4   101
David Murphy*        lf 28 .276 .337 .442 127 453 60 125 27 3 14 60 43 86 7 3   99
Hank Blalock*        1b 29 .258 .309 .471 99 376 50 97 20 3 18 53 27 75 2 0   97
Chris Davis*        1b 24 .251 .300 .475 136 495 69 124 26 2 27 79 34 158 2 1   95
Nate Gold           1b 30 .256 .319 .436 85 328 38 84 18 1 13 53 29 77 0 1   92
Esteban German       3b 32 .269 .352 .373 112 357 52 96 17 4 4 42 43 63 16 6   87
Elvis Andrus         ss 21 .270 .333 .387 146 486 75 131 19 7 8 39 43 74 31 4   85
Justin Smoak#        1b 23 .250 .340 .385 78 304 34 76 15 1 8 35 40 66 0 0   87
Andruw Jones         dh 33 .223 .314 .421 102 354 51 79 17 1 17 55 45 88 4 1   87
Royce Huffman         1b 33 .262 .336 .367 112 412 44 108 23 1 6 44 41 79 4 2   81
Justin Leone         3b 33 .238 .317 .390 92 328 46 78 18 1 10 46 38 92 9 2   81
Julio Borbon*        cf 24 .283 .330 .366 137 573 86 162 22 4 6 48 35 71 41 12   80
Jarrod Saltalamacchia#  c   25 .248 .313 .396 95 323 41 80 16 1 10 40 30 95 0 2   81
Kevin Thompson       rf 30 .249 .322 .378 57 185 29 46 10 1 4 19 18 38 11 3   80
Ryan Freel           rf 34 .255 .329 .345 66 200 31 51 10 1 2 14 18 38 11 4   74
Taylor Teagarden       c   26 .225 .300 .386 80 285 35 64 14 1 10 33 28 99 1 1   75
Ivan Rodriguez       c   38 .262 .293 .389 114 416 53 109 22 2 9 48 18 86 4 2   74
Maximiliano Ramirez     c   25 .237 .312 .348 96 359 35 85 16 0 8 43 36 104 1 1   70
Craig Gentry         cf 26 .253 .308 .342 113 459 64 116 20 3 5 34 27 85 26 7   68
Brandon Boggs#        lf 27 .220 .310 .346 11 382 41 84 18 3 8 40 48 118 7 3   69
Joaquin Arias         ss 25 .266 .297 .354 101 421 52 112 16 3 5 39 17 48 16 3   67
Casey Benjamin*      lf 29 .236 .312 .337 105 368 45 87 15 2 6 33 40 81 3 1   68
Omar Vizquel#        ss 43 .255 .312 .330 86 282 34 72 11 2 2 29 23 31 7 3   66
Manuel Pina         c   23 .249 .290 .348 90 342 33 85 17 1 5 35 16 62 1 0   64
Adam Fox           2b 28 .239 .285 .368 106 380 39 91 15 2 10 39 21 91 5 3   67
Travis Metcalf       3b 27 .234 .285 .357 120 423 50 99 21 2 9 50 29 101 3 2   64
Kevin Richardson       c   29 .212 .268 .355 78 273 28 58 10 1 9 28 17   6 0 1   59
Greg Golson         cf 24 .229 .266 .312 122 477 47 109 17 4 5 39 26 139 16 4   49

Defensive Projections

Name           CThr 1b     2b     3b     ss     lf     cf     rf    
Cruz                                   Av/106       Av/106
Kinsler                 Av/118                            
Hamilton*                                Vg/86   Av/144 Vg/86  
Young                       Fr/86   Fr/92                  
Byrd                                   Av/62   Fr/123 Av/108
Murphy*                                Av/98   Fr/167 Av/65  
Blalock*          Av/115       Pr/104                      
Davis*            Fr/74       Pr/109                      
Gold             Av/128                                
German                 Fr/130 Fr/130 Fr/130 Fr/171            
Andrus                             Vg/135                
Smoak#            Vg/104                                
Jones                                   Av/75   Pr/75   Av/75  
Huffman           Av/83   Pr/159 Pr/159       Av/118       Av/118
Leone             Av/120 Fr/120 Av/99   Pr/120 Vg/87   Pr/120 Vg/120
Borbon*                                Vg/146 Vg/146 Vg/146
Saltalamacchia#  Fr   Fr/160                                
Thompson                                 Av/120 Fr/150 Av/120
Freel                   Fr/121 Fr/121       Av/98   Pr/98   Av/98  
Teagarden       Av                                      
Rodriguez       Av                                      
Ramirez         Fr   Fr/107                                
Gentry                                       Vg/127      
Boggs#                                  Vg/125 Av/85   Vg/125
Arias                   Vg/155       Vg/118                
Benjamin*                Fr/109       Fr/109 Av/109            
Vizquel#                Vg/67       Ex/67                  
Pina           Av                                      
Fox               Av/98   Fr/98   Av/98                   Av/98  
Metcalf                       Fr/100                      
Richardson       Fr   Fr/104                                
Golson                                 Av/90   Av/147 Av/90  

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name           PO   EX   VG   AV   FR   PO       COMP 1       COMP 2       COMP 3
KinslerIan       2B   66%  16%  10%  5%  3%    HaleOdell   EasleyDamion   WerberBilly
CruzNelson       RF   21%  32%  22%  17%  8%  WestlakeWally   BrunanskyTom   MondesiRaul
HamiltonJosh     CF   36%  25%  25%  12%  2%    HallJimmie   AltmanGeorge WyrostekJohnny
YoungMichael     3B   14%  24%  26%  22%  14%    MoraMelvin   WhitneyPinky   CirilloJeff
ByrdMarlon       CF   14%  20%  31%  23%  12%  DevereauxMike   BrandtJackie     BlairPaul
MurphyDavid     LF   4%  10%  14%  29%  43%    JohnsonRoy   NorthrupJim   McMillonBilly
BlalockHank     1B   2%  5%  10%  37%  46%    MatuszekLen     TodtPhil   KryhoskiDick
AndrusElvis     SS   17%  34%  35%  12%  1%    InfanteOmar   RollinsJimmy CabreraOrlando
DavisChris       1B   0%  3%  9%  36%  51%    HowardRyan     LagaMike     MaasKevin
GoldNate       1B   0%  3%  5%  24%  67%    SchallGene FreireAlejandro   VitielloJoe
GermanEsteban     3B   1%  5%  14%  31%  48%    GarnerPhil   ShanksHowie     RandleLen
BorbonJulio     CF   2%  5%  21%  41%  32%    FinleySteve   JohnsonLance     ChavezEndy
SmoakJustin     1B   0%  0%  2%  20%  78%    BarbaraDon   SheltonChris     AbadAndy
ThompsonKevin     RF   0%  2%  3%  11%  84%    BrownEmil     BrowerBob     VenableMax
JonesAndruw     DH   2%  3%  5%  18%  72%    HickmanJim     OliverGene     DavisGlenn
LeoneJustin     3B   1%  3%  8%  23%  65%    RyanConnie     HansenJed   StephensVern
HuffmanRoyce     1B   0%  1%  3%  9%  87%    BurnsGeorge     TolmanTim   HayesCharlie
SaltalamacchiaJar   C   0%  4%  17%  44%  35%    AshbyAlan     DavisBen   WilkinsRick
FreelRyan       RF   0%  0%  1%  4%  95%    OutlawJimmy       FoxPete     KirbyWayne
RodriguezIvan     C   1%  4%  12%  34%  49%  SantiagoBenito       ToddAl     BordersPat
AriasJoaquin     SS   1%  2%  7%  31%  59%    RyanBrendan ConcepcionOnix   ValdezWilson
GentryCraig     CF   1%  1%  3%  13%  82%      BusbyJim     JonesCleon   EllisonJason
TeagardenTaylor   C   1%  1%  5%  28%  65%    FimpleJack     GlassTim   GonzalezJimmy
RamirezMax       C   0%  1%  5%  26%  68%    WaszgisB.J.    AcevesJon   McDonaldKeith
VizquelOmar     SS   0%  0%  2%  16%  82%    SmithOzzie ConcepcionDave     BowaLarry
BenjaminCasey     LF   0%  0%  0%  1%  99%  CarpenterBubba   ParsonsCasey   KingeryMike
BoggsBrandon     LF   0%  0%  0%  1%  99%    CarrChuck   CedenoRoger   ReynoldsR.J.
FoxAdam         2B   1%  1%  1%  5%  92% BloodworthJimmy   JavierJulian       HartBo
PinaManuel       C   0%  0%  1%  13%  86%  StewartChris   LudererBrian   MulliganSean
MetcalfTravis     3B   0%  0%  0%  1%  99%    KennedyJohn   BardenBrian     HulettTim
RichardsonKevin   C   0%  0%  1%  3%  96%MitterwaldGeorge   ArdoinDanny   SardinhaDane
GolsonGreg       RF   0%  0%  0%  0%  100%GuerreroCristian   SenreisoJuan   McDonaldT.J.

Name         .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB
KinslerIan         16%    12%    47%    7%    3%    1%    22%    29%
CruzNelson         15%    10%    55%    10%    1%    0%    52%    1%
HamiltonJosh       30%    17%    33%    10%    1%    0%    4%    0%
YoungMichael       45%    25%    12%    4%    13%    0%    1%    0%
ByrdMarlon         26%    9%    15%    1%    4%    3%    2%    0%
MurphyDavid       20%    7%    12%    2%    2%    1%    1%    0%
BlalockHank         4%    1%    17%    1%    0%    1%    1%    0%
AndrusElvis         9%    5%    0%    0%    0%    67%    0%    63%
DavisChris         2%    0%    23%    0%    0%    0%    33%    0%
GoldNate           6%    3%    7%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
GermanEsteban       16%    20%    0%    0%    0%    6%    0%    1%
BorbonJulio       30%    3%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    94%
SmoakJustin         3%    12%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ThompsonKevin       7%    6%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
JonesAndruw         2%    3%    5%    1%    0%    0%    5%    0%
LeoneJustin         1%    2%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HuffmanRoyce       10%    7%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
SaltalamacchiaJar     2%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
FreelRyan         11%    9%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
RodriguezIvan       9%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
AriasJoaquin       10%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    1%
GentryCraig         2%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    29%
TeagardenTaylor     0%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
RamirezMax         1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
VizquelOmar       11%    4%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BenjaminCasey       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BoggsBrandon       0%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
FoxAdam           1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
PinaManuel         2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
MetcalfTravis       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
RichardsonKevin     0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
GolsonGreg         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Neftali Feliz         22   4.14   9   5 39 19   111.0 102   51 10   57   90 113
Scott Feldman         27   4.45 13   8 34 30   184.0 181   91 23   68   95 105
Guillermo Moscoso       26   4.59   7   5 25 17   102.0 106   52 13   37   69 102
Orlando Hernandez       44   4.74   2   2 10   6   38.0   30   20   7   18   30   99
Brandon McCarthy       26   4.77   6   5 19 19   94.1   95   50 13   42   57   98
Kevin Millwood         35   4.77 12   9 30 30   177.1 194   94 24   66 105   98
Tommy Hunter         23   5.11 11 10 31 30   181.1 201 103 28   57   91   92
Dustin Nippert         29   5.13   6   5 33 14   100.0 105   57 15   46   67   91
Derek Holland*        23   5.15 10   9 33 25   146.2 157   84 22   61 103   91
Mike Wood           30   5.40   4   4 21 11   71.2   82   43 11   26   34   87
Luis Mendoza         26   5.51   8   9 30 21   117.2 138   72 13   57   55   85
Matt Harrison*        24   5.57   7   8 22 22   114.2 135   71 16   47   56   84
Blake Beavan         21   5.73   8 10 27 27   143.0 172   91 25   43   49   82
Martin Perez*        19   5.76   5   6 24 18   89.0 102   57 12   56   52   81
Eric Hurley           24   5.98   3   5 12 12   64.2   73   43 14   27   40   78
Kris Benson           35   6.12   5   8 19 16   100.0 121   68 20   39   47   76
Elizardo Ramirez       27   6.24   7 10 26 22   131.1 165   91 27   43   52   75
Omar Poveda           22   6.31   6 10 21 21   111.1 130   78 20   66   53   74
Kasey Kiker*          22   6.53   5   9 25 23   114.1 134   83 21   77   72   72
Kennil Gomez         22   6.61   6 12 23 23   110.1 129   81 20   77   59   71
Michael Ballard*      26   6.62   7 13 28 25   141.1 187 104 28   52   64   71

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Frankie Francisco       30   3.66   3   1 59   0   59.0   50   24   7   25   61 128
Darren O’Day         27   3.88   4   2 62   0   62.2   57   27   7   23   48 121
C.J. Wilson*          29   3.97   5   2 66   0   65.2   59   29   7   33   63 118
Joaquin Benoit         32   4.29   4   2 38   0   42.0   38   20   5   22   38 109
Jason Grilli         33   4.70   3   2 55   0   61.1   61   32   6   34   51 100
Doug Mathis           27   4.86   1   1 19   3   37.0   40   20   5   14   20   96
Willie Eyre           31   4.91   2   2 38   2   58.2   63   32   7   26   31   95
William Vaughan       29   4.97   4   3 47   0   58.0   61   32   6   30   40   94
Eddie Guardado*        39   5.02   2   2 46   0   37.2   39   21   6   15   20   93
Warner Madrigal       26   5.16   2   2 61   0   66.1   70   38 10   31   44   91
Brian Gordon         31   5.26   5   5 41   4   75.1   84   44 12   26   39   89
Bryan Corey           36   5.40   6   7 44   7   83.1   96   50 13   24   40   87
Josh Rupe           27   5.62   4   5 30   9   83.1   94   52 11   44   42   83
Jailen Peguero         29   5.63   3   4 46   0   54.1   56   34   9   35   39   83
Pedro Strop           25   5.67   4   4 40   0   46.0   48   29   6   33   31   83
Jason Jennings         31   5.74   3   4 29   7   64.1   73   41 11   30   38   82
Derrick Turnbow       32   6.23   2   2 29   0   26.0   25   18   3   29   23   75

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player         PO     TOP   MID   BOT         COMP 1         COMP 2         COMP 3
FranciscoFrank   RP     57%  38%  5%      RadatzDick   FarnsworthKyle     NelsonJeff
O’DayDarren     RP     52%  42%  7%  SarmientoManny     RobinsonJeff   FrazierGeorge
WilsonC.J.      RP     41%  51%  8%    LaRocheDave     FuentesBrian       ScurryRod
FelizNeftali     SP     33%  56%  12%  BedrosianSteve     FoytackPaul       BrownBob
BenoitJoaquin     RP     34%  49%  18%    LeskanicCurt     DeLuciaRich     WilliamsMike
FeldmanScott     SP     33%  60%  8%  BannisterBrian       KingEric       NipperAl
MoscosoGuillermo   SP     35%  52%  13%      TibbsJay   HernandezManny       AshbyAndy
GrilliJason     RP     14%  52%  34% SlocumbHeathcliff     AlvarezJose       NorthLou
HernandezOrlando   SP     34%  34%  32%    DarwinDanny     VanceDazzy     GardnerMark
McCarthyBrandon   SP     26%  52%  22%    RaineyChuck       NipperAl     LeaCharlie
MillwoodKevin     SP     18%  67%  14%      MorganMike   BoddickerMike   ContrerasJose
MathisDoug       RP     17%  43%  40%      WitteTrey     WolfeBrian     GinterMatt
EyreWillie       RP     11%  46%  44%    SantiagoJose     WilliamsTodd     NolesDickie
VaughanWilliam   RP     9%  41%  50%    CamachoErnie     DoughertyJim   DehoyosGabriel
GuardadoEddie     RP     18%  32%  49%    ShouseBrian     StantonMike       BrazleAl
HunterTommy     SP     7%  59%  33%    CunnaneWill     JohnsonJoe     WegmanBill
NippertDustin     SP     2%  37%  61%    BackeBrandon   SturtzeTanyon       HollandAl
HollandDerek     SP     8%  54%  38%      LillyTed     RodgersBobby     SchourekPete
MadrigalWarner   RP     4%  37%  59%    WapnickSteve     ThayerDale     CapellanJose
GordonBrian     RP     4%  33%  63%      GreerKenny     GuerraMark       SnellNate
WoodMike       SP     5%  27%  67%  SteenstraKennie     SorensenLary     CondreyClay
CoreyBryan       RP     5%  27%  68%      RuhleVern       FowlerArt     PavlasDave
MendozaLuis     SP     5%  39%  56%      SwiftBill       WhiteSean     LaCossMike
HarrisonMatt     SP     4%  40%  56%      MutisJeff     JeffcoatMike     MathesAlfred
RupeJosh       SP     1%  21%  78%    CrabtreeTim       MecirJim     BookerGreg
PegueroJailen     RP     2%  22%  76%  GermanFranklyn       CookMike     WilmetPaul
StropPedro       RP     5%  27%  69%  GilfillanJason     BrossTerry   GraterolBeiker
BeavanBlake     SP     1%  29%  70%      EilandDave     MeadowsBrian     TewksburyBob
JenningsJason     RP     1%  22%  77%      BonesRicky     GironRoberto     NolesDickie
PerezMartin     SP     3%  27%  70%    AllenHarold   AndersonJimmy     WilsonTrevor
HurleyEric       SP     3%  25%  72%    TrombleyMike DuckworthBrandon     CarlsonDan
BensonKris       SP     2%  17%  81%  FernandezJared     LazorkoJack   SpringerDennis
TurnbowDerrick   RP     3%  18%  79%      BeanColter     HoughCharlie     CorbinArchie
RamirezElizardo   SP     0%  10%  90%    MeadowsBrian     AbbottGlenn     JohnsonMark
PovedaOmar       SP     0%  9%  91%  StandridgeJason   GalvezBalvino       SmithSean
KikerKasey       SP     0%  6%  94%      RedmanMark     ScheidRich     PerishoMatt
GomezKennil     SP     0%  5%  95%      DaleCarl       ReedChris     FusonRobin
BallardMichael   SP     0%  3%  97%      RamseyMike   PhillipsHeath   AndersonCraig

Player         130 ERA+  100 ERA+  K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9

<1
FranciscoFrank 49% 91% 84% 1% 64%
O'DayDarren 44% 88% 12% 3% 66%
WilsonC.J. 34% 85% 63% 0% 65%
FelizNeftali 24% 84% 21% 0% 78%
BenoitJoaquin 25% 76% 51% 0% 61%
FeldmanScott 5% 63% 0% 1% 36%
MoscosoGuillermo 9% 60% 1% 2% 37%
GrilliJason 10% 59% 27% 0% 75%
HernandezOrlando 21% 48% 25% 3% 29%
McCarthyBrandon 5% 50% 0% 0% 28%
MillwoodKevin 2% 44% 0% 1% 29%
MathisDoug 12% 51% 0% 8% 47%
EyreWillie 8% 43% 0% 2% 60%
VaughanWilliam 6% 43% 3% 0% 56%
GuardadoEddie 18% 43% 1% 7% 37%
HunterTommy 1% 28% 0% 3% 12%
NippertDustin 2% 30% 1% 0% 23%
HollandDerek 1% 25% 1% 0% 15%
MadrigalWarner 2% 29% 1% 0% 23%
GordonBrian 3% 27% 0% 8% 20%
WoodMike 4% 24% 1% 5% 27%
CoreyBryan 4% 24% 0% 19% 28%
MendozaLuis 2% 16% 0% 0% 61%
HarrisonMatt 1% 15% 0% 0% 29%
RupeJosh 0% 14% 0% 0% 39%
PegueroJailen 1% 18% 5% 0% 24%
StropPedro 3% 25% 4% 0% 45%
BeavanBlake 0% 7% 0% 8% 8%
JenningsJason 1% 15% 0% 0% 17%
PerezMartin 0% 9% 0% 0% 41%
HurleyEric 0% 8% 1% 1% 5%
BensonKris 0% 6% 0% 1% 7%
TurnbowDerrick 3% 14% 41% 0% 64%
RamirezElizardo 0% 1% 0% 3% 3%
PovedaOmar 0% 2% 0% 0% 7%
KikerKasey 0% 1% 0% 0% 7%
GomezKennil 0% 0% 0% 0% 6%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name           BA OBP SLG   G   AB     R     H   2B 3B   HR RBI   BB   SO SB CS OPS+
RodriguezIvan   .295 .332 .463 2601 9858   1403   2906 587 54 321 1346   520   1540 130 65 105
VizquelOmar     .272 .338 .354 2774 10029   1391   2730 436 75   79 915   987   1018 392 157   83
YoungMichael   .292 .340 .433 2051 8410   1177   2457 472 54 201 1038   621   1380 112 36 102
KinslerIan     .262 .331 .447 1812 7202   1176   1884 406 37 286 815   708   1040 279 48 106
JonesAndruw     .256 .337 .484 2007 7213   1158   1845 367 35 404 1226   833   1613 145 58 109
BlalockHank     .261 .318 .455 1313 5051   690   1317 275 28 216 732   414   1008 20   6   99
HamiltonJosh   .273 .335 .465 1111 4235   596   1155 224 28 178 697   386   915 68 25 105

Player         W   L   S   ERA     G   GS   IP     H   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
FeldmanScott     144   124   0 4.60   482   365 2312   2304   301   891   1234   101
MillwoodKevin   211   178   0 4.30   540   531 3235   3347   371   1073   2354   104

All figures in % based on projection playing time

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players, including the released and non-tendered are listed with their most recent
teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

 

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees




.

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 05, 2009 at 05:14 PM | 28 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 05, 2009 at 06:15 PM (#3379666)
They look like they could use Milton Bradley at DH. Right now Dan says their best option is Esteban German.
   2. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: November 05, 2009 at 06:21 PM (#3379673)
Ivan. So close to 3,000.
   3. Vance W Posted: November 05, 2009 at 06:26 PM (#3379683)
With a nice deep bullpen and plenty of reasonable starter options the Rangers could make some noise. For once the problem is offense and they are lacking a solid middle of the order guy. It no longer looks like Josh Hamilton will be that guy, given his inability to stay on the field. Unfortunately, the organization is cash-strapped and will not be able to make the kind of free agent splash necessary to significantly upgrade the offense.
   4. JoeHova Posted: November 05, 2009 at 06:32 PM (#3379696)
I'm so happy for Nelson Cruz. I was afraid he would never get a full-time chance after being awful in his first couple call-ups with the Rangers. For whatever reason, the Brewers never liked him much so they gave him away but it always seemed like he had the skills to be a good player despite allegedly having too long of a swing to hit major league pitching. He's probably too old to have an especially long career but it was nice to see him get to play full-time and reward the Rangers for their confidence by making the all-star team.
   5. Posada Posse Posted: November 05, 2009 at 06:57 PM (#3379734)
Does ZiPS take into account team defense in projecting BABIP's for the individual pitchers? I'm slightly surprised that ZiPS would project Scott Feldman to allow less hits than innings pitched after what looks to be a somewhat flukish .276 BABIP in 2009, with a good defense behind him.
   6. JJ1986 Posted: November 05, 2009 at 07:04 PM (#3379745)
Darren O'Day 27 3.88 4 2 62 0 62.2 57 27 7 23 48 121


Good job, Omar.
   7. John DiFool2 Posted: November 05, 2009 at 07:06 PM (#3379749)
Poor Andruw-even 404 homers probably won't be enough to garner him significantly more than 5% of the vote. I remember how excited I was when he hit those 2 World Series home runs as a 19 y/o Sept. callup. Likely Shawon Dunston Disease was to blame (as in, a gifted young ballplayer tries to coast on his pure ability, and never masters the various subtle nuances of the game).
   8. Skinner! Posted: November 05, 2009 at 07:13 PM (#3379761)
Borbon's #1 comp is Steve Finley? That's pretty good news for the rangers. Although Endy Chavez wouldn't be so good.
   9. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: November 05, 2009 at 07:31 PM (#3379790)
Any team in baseball could have had O'Day for peanuts (he was only R5 available becuase he'd been outrighted earlier in the offseason) - the Rangers lucked into his being on their roster when he decided to outperform reasonable expectations.
   10. Walt Davis Posted: November 05, 2009 at 07:39 PM (#3379806)
What an f'ing old team this is. I thought this was supposed to be a young, up-and-coming team. Other than Andrus, there's not a decent position player under 28 with both Davis and Smoak projecting as disappointments. The rotation is reasonably young but looking at that roster, I'm not sure there's anybody other than Kinsler, Andrus and Feliz that I would want on a 3-year contract.
   11. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 05, 2009 at 07:45 PM (#3379814)
Does ZiPS take into account team defense in projecting BABIP's for the individual pitchers?

Roughly. I look at the team defense regressed heavily towards the mean, which works surprisingly not-badly.
   12. Posada Posse Posted: November 05, 2009 at 07:49 PM (#3379819)
Yup, thanks Dan.
   13. PreservedFish Posted: November 05, 2009 at 07:49 PM (#3379820)
Interesting to see Andrus and Smoak looking so similar.
   14. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: November 05, 2009 at 07:53 PM (#3379826)
That's pretty ####### badass that El Duque still projects as a league average hurler at age 44 (even if it is only 38 IP).
   15. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 05, 2009 at 07:56 PM (#3379830)
"MillwoodKevin 211 178 0 4.30 540 531 3235 3347 371 1073 2354 104"

Guess he's going into the Hall with Andy Pettitte.
   16. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 05, 2009 at 07:58 PM (#3379832)
That Smoak projection surprises me by being so low.

And look at the catchers. Remember when Texas had a huge catching surplus?
   17. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: November 05, 2009 at 08:05 PM (#3379845)
The Rangers don't look as good as I thought. I think I'm more bullish on them than Zips--I'll take the over on Smoak and Neftali--but the rest of the offense is either meh or aging. One of Salty, Max or Teagarden could still, emerge, though. The pitching is pretty meh, too. I'm really surprised they don't look better.
   18. The Good Face Posted: November 05, 2009 at 08:18 PM (#3379867)
The Rangers don't look as good as I thought. I think I'm more bullish on them than Zips--I'll take the over on Smoak and Neftali--but the rest of the offense is either meh or aging. One of Salty, Max or Teagarden could still, emerge, though. The pitching is pretty meh, too. I'm really surprised they don't look better.


It's kind of a weird team in that there's considerable upside potential there, but with so many players coming off injuries/ineffective seasons, any sensible projection system is going to hedge and show them as pretty mediocre. If they catch a few breaks with health and the development of young position players, I could easily see them contending. Probably a make or break year for Chris Davis and Saltalamacchia as future starters.
   19. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: November 05, 2009 at 08:36 PM (#3379898)
Texas has too many catchers and Boston has too many pitchers.
   20. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: November 05, 2009 at 08:43 PM (#3379909)
So is this the team/lineup?

3 Young 104
2 Kinsler 111
R Cruz 116
C Hamilton 111
L Byrd 104
1 Blalock 97
D Jones 87
C Saltamacchia 81
S Andrus 85

C Teagarden 75
SS Arias 67
IF German 87
OF Murphy 99
1B Davis 95
   21. RJ in TO Posted: November 05, 2009 at 08:51 PM (#3379915)
Blalock and Byrd will almost certainly be gone, but the rest of that lineup is probably about right.
   22. Vance W Posted: November 05, 2009 at 09:49 PM (#3379998)
Jones will be gone as well. My guess would be that Davis and Smoak share 1b/DH duties. I guess the good news is that with the exception of Young, Byrd and the rookie Andrus, the whole team underperformed relative to expectations in '09. I have to think more of the team is likely to have good years in 2010.
   23. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 06, 2009 at 02:20 AM (#3380333)
According to TR Sullivan, the Rangers are going to make every effort to resign Byrd, but they don't have a lot of expectations of doing so. They have some interest in Jermaine Dye. Blalock and Jones are gone.

The Rangers are still interested in signing Ben Sheets, who they had signed last year but whose contract was voided when he had to undergo surgery.

-- MWE
   24. NBarnes Posted: November 07, 2009 at 01:15 AM (#3381582)
Boston has too many pitchers.


This is possible?

I'll also point out that Boston traded some of its pitching depth for a catcher relatively recently.
   25. OBSLCommish Posted: December 03, 2009 at 07:35 PM (#3402343)
Kasey Kiker* 22 6.53 5 9 25 23 114.1 134 83 21 77 72 72

How is Kiker projected to issue more walks than Ks when he's never even come close to that in the minors?
   26. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 03, 2009 at 11:06 PM (#3402705)
How is Kiker projected to issue more walks than Ks when he's never even come close to that in the minors?


Well, his walk rate shot up a year ago while his K rate went up only a little bit as he made the AA jump. Perisho, the #3 comp generated by ZiPS, had a slightly better K/BB ratio in AA at 21 and was almost 1:1 in the majors at 22.

-- MWE
   27. Rays&Sox; Posted: February 23, 2010 at 12:43 AM (#3465583)
Do Orlando Hernandez's comps or projection change if you use his "official" DOB of 10/11/1969?
   28. J. Bowman, upon reflection, does hate pants Posted: April 03, 2010 at 05:42 PM (#3491705)
Is there any possibility of projecting C.J. Wilson as a starter? Or is this beyond the capacity of ZiPS?

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