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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, February 08, 2010

2010 ZiPS Projections - Toronto Blue Jays

In my opinion, you’re looking at the 5th-place team in the AL East.  There’s just not enough upside, at least in 2010, in the offense and while the team has legitimate players at every position, that’s not enough in this division.  The rotation already had serious issues before losing Roy Halladay, with essentially every other 2006-2008 starter being injured and the loss of Doc really blows a short-term hole in the pitching staff.  After the injury crew, there are simply questions marks of another kind, from Ricky Romero having serious problems in the Eastern League just a year ago and Marc Rzepczynski’s control issues.

The Anthopoulos regime is going to have problems if they try to do any quick fixes.  The team can contend, but it’s going to need a long-term plan.

Offensive Projections

Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Adam Lind*          lf 26 .277 .339 .488 152 582 84 161 38 2 27 102 53 119 1 1   117
Travis Snider*        rf 22 .240 .332 .452 128 429 58 103 23 1 22 63 56 147 1 2   107
Aaron Hill           2b 28 .275 .323 .447 131 528 72 145 32 1 19 73 36 82 3 1   103
Lyle Overbay*        1b 33 .251 .339 .416 130 442 56 111 29 1 14 57 59 95 1 1   100
Vernon Wells         cf 31 .260 .314 .430 128 507 70 132 29 3 17 69 40 73 7 2   96
Jarrett Hoffpauir     2b 27 .264 .331 .394 128 436 56 115 26 2 9 55 42 50 3 2   93
Edwin Encarnacion     3b 27 .233 .317 .397 132 464 68 108 23 1 17 72 50 103 3 1   89
Jose Bautista         lf 29 .227 .324 .389 129 414 68 94 21 2 14 60 56 109 3 1   89
Randy Ruiz           dh 32 .239 .301 .414 131 502 64 120 27 2 19 73 37 146 1 1   88
Brett Wallace*        3b 23 .246 .314 .385 134 525 75 129 23 1 16 63 38 135 1 1   85
Jeremy Reed*        lf 29 .274 .320 .386 139 368 53 101 19 2 6 43 24 51 5 5   84
Jason Lane           rf 33 .227 .307 .392 117 406 57 92 26 1 13 54 45 87 2 1   85
John Buck           c   29 .221 .292 .422 95 308 36 68 15 1 15 46 27 97 0 1   87
Howie Clark*        2b 36 .260 .312 .361 77 288 39 75 15 1 4 31 21 28 1 1   79
Jorge Padilla         rf 30 .263 .322 .352 118 392 55 103 16 2 5 30 28 63 11 8   80
Brad Emaus           2b 24 .241 .303 .350 118 452 54 109 24 2 7 49 38 81 5 2   74
Jesus Merchan         2b 29 .256 .304 .342 84 313 38 80 14 2 3 37 16 39 3 1   72
Rod Barajas         c   34 .229 .277 .382 99 327 36 75 17 0 11 46 20 62 0 0   73
Mike McCoy           ss 29 .226 .316 .304 123 411 52 93 16 2 4 33 53 82 20 6   67
Joey Gathright*      cf 29 .258 .327 .302 120 368 50 95 9 2 1 24 32 62 21 9   70
Kyle Phillips*        c   26 .244 .297 .338 95 352 30 86 15 0 6 35 25 73 0 1   69
Brian Dopirak         1b 26 .227 .275 .371 127 498 48 113 25 1 15 63 32 147 1 1   70
Chris Lubanski*      lf 25 .227 .282 .365 88 326 39 74 15 3 8 34 26 98 5 3   71
Cody Haerther*        lf 26 .231 .292 .332 74 238 25 55 13 1 3 24 19 51 1 1   66
Sea Bass Gonzalez     ss 33 .231 .277 .354 107 376 39 87 17 1 9 39 21 79 1 1   67
Raul Chavez         c   37 .246 .285 .338 61 195 19 48 9 0 3 22   9 31 0 0   66
J.P. Arencibia       c   24 .222 .258 .370 116 465 48 103 25 1 14 58 20 133 0 0   65
Brian Jeroloman*      c   25 .222 .258 .370 116 465 48 103 25 1 14 58 20 133 0 0   65
David Cooper*        1b 23 .218 .299 .282 108 404 51 88 15 1 3 44 45 98 10 6   57
John McDonald         ss 35 .232 .271 .323 85 198 22 46 10 1 2 18   9 29 2 1   58
Brian Bocock         ss 25 .188 .255 .245 107 400 51 75 15 1 2 39 35 123 9 8   35

Defensive Projections

Name           CThr 1b     2b     3b     ss     lf     cf     rf    
Lind*                                  Fr/68       Fr/68  
Hill                   Vg/89                            
Overbay*          Av/77                                  
Snider*                                Fr/161       Fr/214
Wells                                       Fr/88      
Hoffpauir               Av/115 Av/115 Pr/142                
Encarnacion                   Pr/116                      
Bautista           Av/97   Pr/122 Fr/97       Fr/97   Pr/97   Av/117
Ruiz             Av/145                 Fr/145            
Wallace*          Av/125       Pr/125                      
Reed*                                  Av/75   Fr/84   Av/75  
Lane                                   Pr/76   Pr/76   Pr/76  
Buck           Fr                                      
Clark*            Vg/100 Av/100 Av/100 Fr/100 Av/100 Fr/100 Av/100
Padilla                                 Av/83       Av/136
Emaus                   Av/122 Av/144                      
Merchan                 Av/144 Av/144 Av/144                
Barajas         Av   Fr/95                                  
McCoy                   Av/135 Av/103 Av/116 Av/121 Av/121 Av/121
Gathright*                              Vg/94   Vg/89      
Phillips*      Av   Fr/108       Fr/144                      
Dopirak           Av/155                                
Lubanski*                                Av/134            
Haerther*                                Av/80       Av/80  
Gonzalez                           Av/100                
Chavez         Vg                                      
Arencibia       Av                                      
Jeroloman*      Av                                      
Cooper*            Fr/138                                
McDonald                 Vg/94   Vg/94   Vg/94                  
Bocock                             Ex/132                

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player         PO     TOP   MID   BOT         COMP 1         COMP 2         COMP 3
FrasorJason     RP     43%  43%  14%    SpringerRuss   MotaGuillermo     BelindaStan
TalletBrian     RP     17%  54%  28%    McElroyChuck     EmbreeAlan     ForsterTerry
MarcumShaun     SP     37%  49%  14%    BoydOil Can   EckersleyDennis     TomkoBrett
AccardoJeremy     RP     16%  46%  38%    WallaceDerek       WinnJim     BatemanJoe
StewartZachary   RP     17%  56%  27%  GalehouseDenny     NolesDickie     ReiterGary
CampShawn       RP     17%  54%  29%      MadduxMike       WhiteRick     MurrayDale
McGowanDustin     SP     36%  50%  14%      WittMike     DownsKelly     HamiltonJoey
CarlsonJesse     RP     16%  51%  33%    McElroyChuck   HickersonBryan   SchatzederDan
RoenickeJosh     RP     12%  36%  53%    WilliamsFrank     BulgerJason       StoopsJim
LitschJesse     SP     17%  53%  30%    MathisDouglas     WegmanBill     TewksburyBob
RzepczynskiMarc   SP     11%  55%  33%      BirtsasTim     SaundersTony       DayleyKen
JanssenCasey     RP     7%  42%  51%      ArnoldTony     SantiagoJose   MontalvoRafael
CollinsTim       RP     5%  33%  62%      ClarkeStan     JohnsonTyler     ReyesDennys
WolfeBrian       RP     4%  28%  67%      GordonDon     SchmackBrian       McNabTim
HayhurstDirk     RP     1%  25%  73%    O’NealRandy     PadillaJuan       SilvaJose
RomeroRicky     SP     2%  44%  54%      MoyerJamie     ParraManny   ClaussenBrandon
FarquharDaniel   RP     5%  23%  72%    BowlesBrian     ThurbergTom   ChavezAnthony
CollazoWillie     SP     3%  20%  78%  OvermireStubby     McConnellSam       GeeJohnny
CecilBrett       SP     2%  34%  65%    JacksonDanny     MarshallSean     MoyerJamie
PurceyDavid     SP     2%  30%  67%    KruegerBill     EstesShawn     CollinsDon
RichmondScott     SP     3%  27%  70%    BittigerJeff   VargasClaudio     DarlingRon
MillsBrad       SP     3%  31%  65%  ClaussenBrandon   BurroughsDarren     KeislerRandy
ZinicolaZechry   RP     1%  17%  82%      MillsAlan     DePaulaJulio   PisciottaMarc
HennSean       RP     2%  20%  78%    JordanRicardo     TolarKevin     BurkeErick
GonzalezReidier   SP     3%  26%  71%    MitreSergio MacdonaldMichael       HouseyJoe
EvelandDana     SP     0%  20%  80%    MurrayHeath     DanielsJohn   ThompsonDerek
RayRobert       SP     2%  21%  78%    RasnerDarrell     MoehlerBrian     SnyderJohn
RomeroDavis     SP     2%  17%  81%  LilliquistDerek     IlsleyBlaise   ShumakerAnthony
CastroFabio     SP     0%  15%  85%    HalperinMike     HughesDusty   CaraccioliLance
PerezLuis       SP     0%  3%  97%    WodnickiMike   ThompsonDerek     CoenenMatt

Player         130 ERA+  100 ERA+  K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9

<1
FrasorJason 34% 81% 70% 2% 77%
TalletBrian 13% 60% 38% 0% 73%
MarcumShaun 13% 63% 17% 9% 31%
AccardoJeremy 16% 54% 11% 1% 61%
StewartZachary 13% 62% 18% 1% 80%
CampShawn 12% 58% 15% 5% 74%
McGowanDustin 9% 62% 19% 1% 71%
CarlsonJesse 12% 54% 26% 5% 65%
RoenickeJosh 8% 39% 53% 0% 67%
LitschJesse 3% 36% 0% 14% 32%
RzepczynskiMarc 1% 33% 40% 0% 87%
JanssenCasey 7% 36% 1% 8% 68%
CollinsTim 3% 32% 78% 0% 58%
WolfeBrian 3% 26% 0% 7% 49%
HayhurstDirk 1% 18% 5% 1% 42%
RomeroRicky 0% 12% 11% 0% 38%
FarquharDaniel 3% 21% 27% 0% 55%
CollazoWillie 2% 17% 0% 4% 37%
CecilBrett 0% 9% 3% 0% 30%
PurceyDavid 0% 8% 7% 0% 49%
RichmondScott 1% 9% 29% 0% 6%
MillsBrad 0% 11% 9% 0% 45%
ZinicolaZechry 1% 14% 3% 0% 65%
HennSean 1% 17% 40% 0% 58%
GonzalezReidier 0% 9% 0% 1% 57%
EvelandDana 0% 3% 1% 0% 47%
RayRobert 0% 6% 0% 0% 41%
RomeroDavis 0% 6% 1% 1% 17%
CastroFabio 0% 2% 0% 0% 35%
PerezLuis 0% 0% 0% 0% 48%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Shaun Marcum         28   4.18   6   5 18 18   97.0   93   45 14   31   76 104
Dustin McGowan         28   4.29   7   6 17 17   100.2 101   48 10   38   81 101
Jesse Litsch         25   4.67   9 10 24 23   135.0 148   70 18   40   75   93
Marc Rzepczynski*      24   4.69   9 10 27 27   136.1 140   71 11   81 119   93
Davis Romero*        27   5.02   7   9 31 20   120.0 136   67 20   38   83   87
Ricky Romero*        25   5.08 10 14 33 33   196.2 219 111 25   93 155   86
Kyle Drabek           22   5.21   4   5 16 15   86.1   93   50 11   42   63   82
Brett Cecil*          23   5.28   7 10 29 29   138.0 157   81 18   61 100   82
David Purcey*        28   5.29   7 10 27 27   148.0 160   87 17   82 113   82
Scott Richmond         30   5.30   8 11 27 24   137.2 146   81 24   59 117   82
Brad Mills*          25   5.34   5   7 18 17   87.2   96   52 11   47   67   82
Shawn Hill           29   5.35   2   2   7   7   37.0   45   22   4   12   23   80
Reidier Gonzalez       24   5.40   5   8 22 19   105.0 127   63 12   41   54   81
Dana Eveland*        26   5.49   6 10 30 26   144.1 166   88 17   73   96   79
Robert Ray           26   5.63   4   6 16 16   78.1   96   49 10   32   45   77
Fabio Castro*        25   5.65   5   9 33 22   127.1 146   80 17   72   80   77
Zach Jackson*        27   6.12   5 10 35 19   129.1 164   88 20   53   76   70
Luis Perez*          25   6.23   5 11 26 24   121.1 148   84 15   79   73   70
Lance Broadway         26   6.49   5 12 33 22   140.0 180 101 21   70   74   66

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Scott Downs*          34   3.58   2   2 61   0   55.1   52   22   5   21   49 122
Jason Frasor         32   3.76   4   3 55   0   52.2   46   22   5   22   51 116
Brian Tallet*        32   4.17   3   3 64   0   73.1   71   34   7   34   63 104
Jeremy Accardo         28   4.22   2   2 50   0   49.0   49   23   5   21   37 103
Zachary Stewart       23   4.24   3   3 32   9   76.1   77   36   7   33   60 103
Shawn Camp           34   4.26   3   3 54   0   61.1   62   29   6   22   49 102
Jesse Carlson*        29   4.41   4   4 72   0   67.1   68   33   8   23   56   99
Kevin Gregg           32   4.50   5   6 73   0   70.0   66   35   9   35   66   95
Josh Roenicke         27   4.63   2   2 43   0   44.2   45   23   5   24   41   94
Casey Janssen         28   4.73   2   3 42   4   59.0   66   31   6   21   36   92
Tim Collins*          20   4.90   6   7 47   0   68.0   64   37   8   47   68   89
Brian Wolfe           29   5.03   3   4 48   2   62.2   70   35   8   22   38   87
Dirk Hayhurst         29   5.04   4   5 48   5   85.2   98   48 11   31   63   86
Daniel Farquhar       23   5.17   2   3 41   0   47.0   47   27   5   33   39   84
Willie Collazo*        30   5.24   5   8 40 13   113.1 130   66 16   42   58   83
Zechry Zinicola       25   5.37   3   4 46   0   58.2   65   35   7   35   40   81
Sean Henn*          29   5.40   2   3 41   1   50.0   52   30   6   32   43   81
Merkin Valdez         28   5.56   1   2 42   1   43.2   48   27   5   30   36   77
Steven Register       27   5.66   2   5 60   0   62.0   74   39 10   27   37   75

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name           PO   EX   VG   AV   FR   PO       COMP 1       COMP 2       COMP 3
LindAdam       LF   22%  27%  21%  18%  12%      FalkBibb       HallMel   DyeJermaine
HillAaron       2B   29%  18%  19%  19%  15% HillenbrandShea     MoranBilly   MalzoneFrank
OverbayLyle     1B   3%  9%  14%  35%  38%  ChamblissChris   AldreteMike   SiebernNorm
WellsVernon     CF   11%  13%  25%  29%  22%  LandreauxKen       BellGus       MayDave
HoffpauirJarrett   2B   10%  12%  17%  27%  35%  BarrettMarty   MantillaFelix   WilliamsDavey
EncarnacionEdwin   3B   2%  8%  18%  31%  41%    SpiezioEd   PerezEduardo   HuskeyButch
BautistaJose     LF   1%  5%  8%  19%  68%    VoigtJack     GilesBrian   MokanJohnny
RuizRandy       DH   1%  3%  6%  21%  69%    DropoWalt GalarragaAndres   ThompsonRyan
WallaceBrett     3B   0%  2%  9%  26%  63%  WilliamsEddie     CredeJoe   JacobyBrook
LaneJason       RF   1%  3%  5%  13%  78%  CallisonJohnny     NorenIrv     BellBeau
ClarkHowie       2B   1%  2%  7%  21%  69%    RojasCookie     GantnerJim     StrippJoe
MerchanJesus     2B   0%  1%  3%  11%  85%  StennettRennieWhiteheadBurgess   GriffinDoug
EmausBradley     2B   1%  1%  3%  12%  84%LombardozziSteve   EasleyDamion     HowieMark
BarajasRod       C   1%  5%  10%  31%  53%    LyonsBarry   MartinezBuck   NorrisSteven
DopirakBrian     1B   0%  0%  0%  2%  97%    MurrayRich     HarveyKen     DaigleLeo
PhillipsKyle     C   0%  1%  5%  23%  71%    LowryDwight   AllansonAndy   FabregasJorge
ChavezRaul       C   0%  1%  5%  27%  67%    AlomarSandy     GirardiJoe   SchmidtWalter
HaertherCody     RF   0%  0%  0%  0%  100%  WetherbyJeff     SwannPedro ChristianEddie
ArencibiaJ.P.    C   0%  1%  3%  13%  84%ManriquezSalomon     BordersPat       FoxJake
McDonaldJohn     SS   0%  0%  0%  4%  96%    LillisBob NewsomeSkeeter     CastroJuan
CooperDavid     1B   0%  0%  0%  0%  100%  RogowskiCasey     ThomasTroy PritchettChris
BocockBrian     SS   0%  0%  0%  0%  100%    BasakChris   GilbertShawn     PettiniJoe

Name         .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB
LindAdam         20%    11%    35%    15%    21%    0%    34%    0%
HillAaron         17%    4%    16%    5%    5%    0%    9%    0%
OverbayLyle         5%    10%    5%    3%    2%    0%    1%    0%
WellsVernon         7%    1%    8%    2%    2%    0%    4%    0%
HoffpauirJarrett     10%    7%    2%    1%    1%    0%    0%    0%
EncarnacionEdwin     1%    2%    2%    1%    0%    0%    2%    0%
BautistaJose       1%    3%    2%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%
RuizRandy         1%    0%    3%    0%    1%    0%    5%    0%
WallaceBrett       1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%
LaneJason         1%    1%    2%    0%    1%    0%    0%    0%
ClarkHowie         9%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
MerchanJesus       7%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
EmausBradley       1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BarajasRod         1%    0%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
DopirakBrian       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
PhillipsKyle       2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ChavezRaul         8%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HaertherCody       1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ArencibiaJ.P.      0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
McDonaldJohn       2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CooperDavid         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BocockBrian         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name           BA OBP SLG   G   AB     R     H   2B 3B   HR RBI   BB   SO SB CS OPS+
EncarnacionEdwin .243 .327 .417 1196 4163   584   1010 216 11 162 628   447   917 30 11   93
HillAaron     .272 .321 .428 1650 6493   866   1763 375 17 202 809   447   1029 42 19   97
OverbayLyle     .268 .353 .436 1444 4922   642   1319 349 13 150 645   650   1035 17   8 106
LindAdam       .267 .328 .461 1599 6051   838   1614 367 19 257 974   540   1283 13 10 107
WellsVernon     .271 .321 .449 1835 7246   1029   1963 417 38 267 1032   540   1040 113 35 100

All figures in % based on projection playing time

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

 

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Indians

Mariners

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees




These projections were sponsored in part by:

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Dan Szymborski Posted: February 08, 2010 at 09:30 PM | 197 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Page 1 of 2 pages  1 2 > 
   1. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: February 08, 2010 at 09:37 PM (#3456234)
You're missing Yunel Escobar's offensive projection.
   2. Banta Posted: February 08, 2010 at 09:40 PM (#3456238)
Yikes, that's an ugly looking team. And an expected hideous projection for Wells, although I might have guessed a touch higher than that. That line is abysmal.
   3. RJ in TO Posted: February 08, 2010 at 09:42 PM (#3456242)
Hooray! The top 3 starters by ERA+ threw a combined total of 9 innings last year!

The starting rotation is going to get absolutely destroyed.
   4. RJ in TO Posted: February 08, 2010 at 09:43 PM (#3456244)
Yikes, that's an ugly looking team. And an expected hideous projection for Wells, although I might have guessed a touch higher than that. That line is abysmal.


It's also an improvement from last year's line.
   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 08, 2010 at 09:44 PM (#3456246)
Ugh. That's an ugly offense.

I firmly expect them to pull 5 league average or better SPs out of their ass.
   6. JJ1986 Posted: February 08, 2010 at 09:45 PM (#3456247)
This looks like the worst team in baseball to me. And the most boring, all of the other awful teams have at least one potential superstar.
   7. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 08, 2010 at 09:53 PM (#3456257)
I didn't realize Rzzzzzzzzzzski was a "Marc" rather than a "Mark". Possibly more associated with the 90's that any other men's name, the name Marc has never been held by a really good major-league baseball player.

Best Marcs from baseball history:

- Marc Hill, the catcher who failed to adequately fill Dave Rader's shoes with the late-70's Giants, before becoming a longtime backup with the White Sox.
- Marc Wilkins, who pitched more than 200 relief innings for the Bonifay-era Pirates.
- Marc Valdes, who was, I believe, the Marlins' first ever draft pick. His career highlight was probably being traded for Russ Johnson.
- Marc Sullivan, whom nepotism brought a career as Red Sox backup catcher, but did not play any role in their 1986 playoff run.
- Marc Newfield, who was traded along with Ron Villone TWICE.
- Marc Kroon, who has had a pretty good career in Japan.

Can Rzzzzzzzzski outstrip the accomplishments of all these men to become baseball's greatest Marc?
   8. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 08, 2010 at 09:56 PM (#3456259)
I have Tallet as a reliever, simply because it's getting towards spring training and it's looking like he's going to be back to 100% relief. If anyone wants the "mix" projection, let me know!
   9. Honkie Kong Posted: February 08, 2010 at 09:58 PM (#3456261)
I read a Sickels' post recently where he was bullish on Rzep.. ( RZe, no PS! ) mainly due to the number of groundballs he was generating, and the healthy K rate to go along with it.
   10. RJ in TO Posted: February 08, 2010 at 09:59 PM (#3456263)
I firmly expect them to pull 5 league average or better SPs out of their ass.


Keep in mind that the defense will also be much worse than last year - Gonzalez is nothing special at short, and Encarnacion is much, much, much, much worse at 3B than Rolen. They'll also be replacing Rios in the OF with either Lind or Snider. The starters are going to put up ugly ERA+ because so many more balls are going to drop in compared to last year.
   11. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 08, 2010 at 10:16 PM (#3456288)
Keep in mind that the defense will also be much worse than last year - Gonzalez is nothing special at short, and Encarnacion is much, much, much, much worse at 3B than Rolen. They'll also be replacing Rios in the OF with either Lind or Snider. The starters are going to put up ugly ERA+ because so many more balls are going to drop in compared to last year.

Good point.

This team's gonna suck.
   12. RJ in TO Posted: February 08, 2010 at 10:22 PM (#3456291)
I am also somewhat alarmed by the number of guys in the lower half of the OPS+ list who are likely to make the team. McDonald, Chavez, A-Gon the Younger, Gathright - that's a lot of terrible (as opposed to just moderately bad) hitting.
   13. Good cripple hitter Posted: February 08, 2010 at 10:24 PM (#3456295)
This looks like the worst team in baseball to me. And the most boring, all of the other awful teams have at least one potential superstar.


That's the worst part. I can stand bad baseball. I can spend a lot of time watching a team that loses 94 games. But this season is going to be a grind, because there's nothing interesting about this team. There's no speed, no power, the defense isn't good anymore, and Halladay won't start every fifth game. I don't even think I have a favourite player on this team, except for Jason Frasor. Jason Frasor, it's absurd, but that's what I've been reduced to: claiming that a relief pitcher with a foshball and Trachsel-esque tempo is my favourite player.

Come to think of it, the only entertaining thing that might come from going to the games is watching the inevitable trainwreck that will be the Lind/Wells/Snider or Bautista outfield. Or watching John McDonald be the fifth outfielder.
   14. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: February 08, 2010 at 10:27 PM (#3456299)
The bullpen looks okay.
   15. RJ in TO Posted: February 08, 2010 at 10:30 PM (#3456304)
The bullpen looks okay.


It won't once it starts having to throw 5 innings every game.
   16. Accent Shallow Posted: February 08, 2010 at 10:35 PM (#3456314)
I wasn't aware that Wells was a useful hitter as recently as 2008. Does anyone think he'll be able to get back to a 110-120 OPS+?
   17. shock Posted: February 08, 2010 at 10:35 PM (#3456317)
Mike McCoy!

Who is Mike McCoy?


Keep in mind that the defense will also be much worse than last year


Yup. Go to bbref and have a look at some of the starters' ERAs once Rolen was dealt. Good fun; if I recall correctly, Richmond was solidly over 10 in a decent sample.
   18. RJ in TO Posted: February 08, 2010 at 10:38 PM (#3456321)
I wasn't aware that Wells was a useful hitter as recently as 2008. Does anyone think he'll be able to get back to a 110-120 OPS+?


I believe that he had more surgery on his wrist this offseason. As a result, I don't see a 110-120 OPS+ in his near future.

Yep. He did have wrist surgery this offseason, which isn't a good sign. What I didn't know was that Encarnacion also had wrist surgery. This offense could be even worse than the projections.
   19. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: February 08, 2010 at 10:41 PM (#3456323)
McCoy - waiver claim from the Rox. He's probably a teeny bit better than that projection and has a very, very small chance to turn into Scutaro II.
That said, his name probably isn't worth learning.
   20. shock Posted: February 08, 2010 at 10:42 PM (#3456326)
All we can really hope for is an explosive season from Snider. That would make the season at least somewhat fun. Otherwise ... where's the fast forward button?
   21. Harmon "Thread Killer" Microbrew Posted: February 08, 2010 at 10:44 PM (#3456327)
no power


Quibble: Hill and Lind were two of the top five HR hitters in the league last year.

With Snider, Bautista, Ruiz -- even Wells -- power is about the only thing the Jays have going for them this year, imho.

But, overall....they're gonna suck.
   22. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: February 08, 2010 at 10:50 PM (#3456331)

McCoy - waiver claim from the Rox. He's probably a teeny bit better than that projection and has a very, very small chance to turn into Scutaro II.
That said, his name probably isn't worth learning.
he did have a 79 OPS+ with the rockies.
   23. dze27 Posted: February 08, 2010 at 10:50 PM (#3456332)
Well, now I'm officially depressed. Highest projected OBP -- .339? Yikes :(
   24. Good cripple hitter Posted: February 08, 2010 at 10:57 PM (#3456340)
Quibble: Hill and Lind were two of the top five HR hitters in the league last year.


True, I almost went back to edit that to say 'no offense': PECOTA projects the team to have the least runs scored in the AL. Or 'no leadoff hitter', Jose Bautista is currently Gaston's leading contender for the spot. But I'd certainly expect Hill to regress from last year.

Also: for pitching, this is the first year without Brad Arnsberg as pitching coach. I'm not sure if that will have a major effect on the staff, but it'll be interesting to see if the defense and/or new pitching coach (and injuries, I suppose) lead to the Jays' magic neverending well of league average pitching dries up. If it does, it'll be an ugly season.
   25. jmacdonald Posted: February 08, 2010 at 10:59 PM (#3456343)
It looks like there may be an accidental duplication between Brian Jeroloman's and J.P. Arencibia's projections.
   26. formerly dp Posted: February 08, 2010 at 11:04 PM (#3456346)
They should let the Jays take steroids, but only when they play the Yanks and Sox. They won't win, but the games will be interesting...

This is the most dismal outlook they've had going into the season in a long time. That's just a horrible collection of "hitters". Can McDonald still play SS at an above-average level? The one thing JP seemed really good at was fielding a team of guys who could suck up some balls, which made the pitching look pretty decent. I agree with Ryan that this is gonna be a huge departure from that model. Aside from Hill, is there an above-average fielder in the lineup? Buck has to be good at something, right? There's not even an interesting collection of NRIs who could steal playing time.

Is there some philosophy behind the rebuilding effort other than "get good players"? What type of team is AA trying to build here? JP had a plan, albeit a poorly-executed one (I bought it for about a year and a half)...anything similar going on now?
   27. Harmon "Thread Killer" Microbrew Posted: February 08, 2010 at 11:05 PM (#3456347)
RE: 24

All so true.

I expect a lot of solo HR and 7-2 losses.
   28. bigboy1234 Posted: February 08, 2010 at 11:07 PM (#3456350)
Dan, you accidently gave Jeroloman JP's line.
   29. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: February 08, 2010 at 11:08 PM (#3456353)
If that Encarnacion projection is an accurate gauge of his offensive talent then he doesn't belong in the majors any more. The man's defense at 3rd is just plain brutal.

EDIT: and that Brett Wallace projection is strikingly pessimistic. Is there something in his performance record I am missing?
   30. formerly dp Posted: February 08, 2010 at 11:14 PM (#3456355)
If that Encarnacion projection is an accurate gauge of his offensive talent then he doesn't belong in the majors any more. The man's defense at 3rd is just plain brutal.

Maybe this'll be the year he puts it together with the bat...probably not but...
   31. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 08, 2010 at 11:15 PM (#3456356)
Marc Wilkins, who pitched more than 200 relief innings for the Bonifay-era Pirates.


Better known for breaking the jaw of teammate Jeff Tabaka in a hotel lobby brawl.
   32. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: February 08, 2010 at 11:19 PM (#3456360)
I say boo to running a baseball team this poorly.
   33. Walt Davis Posted: February 08, 2010 at 11:49 PM (#3456387)
Seems I've been confusing Marc Sullivan and Marc Hill all this time. Yet this confusion doesn't seem to have negatively affected my life at all.

Man, what a lousy team. I'll admit, I hadn't realized just how stinky they were. I'd swear there were some Jays moved where I thought "yeah, that looks good" but I'm darned if I can reverse engineer what those might have been after looking at the roster. Can't hit, can't field, can't pitch ... maybe can't even stay healthy. And, yeah, those Wallace and Encarnacion projections are depressing.

OK, picking up Buck on the cheap wasn't a bad move -- nothing special but average-ish.

And not a lot of trade chits left -- Hill obviously, Overbay will probably get moved at the deadline but not for much, and Downs and Frasor (who won't bring much).

I'm used to the Jays always being at least decent, kinda like the Astros. But it would be a miracle this year or, seemingly, any time in the next 3-5 years.

This is apparently such a shock to all of us that nobody's even pointed out that the pitcher and hitter ODDIBEs are out of order (or is it just such a shock to me that I didn't notice when it was).

Now, on Marcum's top comp, is the first name Oil and the middle name Can?
   34. Patriot87 Posted: February 08, 2010 at 11:50 PM (#3456388)
Shouldn't Tallet at least have some sort of starter rating on the disc when it's finished? He did start 25 games last year. That's a lot.
   35. Patriot87 Posted: February 08, 2010 at 11:51 PM (#3456389)
Also, is Bocock the worst offensive player of all time? At least in ZiPS. 35 OPS+? Ouch.
   36. mex4173 Posted: February 08, 2010 at 11:55 PM (#3456393)
I really hope Lind beats that projection, or this will be a really boring team for me to follow.
   37. heyyoo Posted: February 09, 2010 at 12:19 AM (#3456410)
Thats by far the worst projection I've seen for Travis Snider. I like him and still think he'll develop.
I'll take the over on him.
   38. Matthew E Posted: February 09, 2010 at 12:19 AM (#3456411)
I am more pessimistic about the Jays than I have ever been in my life and I like them better than anybody in this thread. I'm quite looking forward to the season, I'm enthusiastic about the young pitching, and I think that with a strong tailwind they can approach .500.
   39. formerly dp Posted: February 09, 2010 at 12:27 AM (#3456416)
I am more pessimistic about the Jays than I have ever been in my life and I like them better than anybody in this thread. I'm quite looking forward to the season, I'm enthusiastic about the young pitching, and I think that with a strong tailwind they can approach .500.

the lineup has too many serious holes, IMO, for that to happen- C, SS, and maybe CF. I think EE will rebound with the bat. I don't see Snider being as bad as his projection. Hill might not regress as much as we're all expecting. Too bad they couldn't lock up Scutaro...
   40. Travolta19 Posted: February 09, 2010 at 12:29 AM (#3456419)
Dan, any thoughts on Scott Campbell?
   41. flournoy Posted: February 09, 2010 at 12:45 AM (#3456425)
Also, is Bocock the worst offensive player of all time? At least in ZiPS. 35 OPS+? Ouch.


I remember I requested Jonathan Schuerholz's projection one year, and I think Bocock's is better. Though Bocock actually made the major leagues, unlike Schuerholz.
   42. RJ in TO Posted: February 09, 2010 at 12:46 AM (#3456426)
I'm quite looking forward to the season, I'm enthusiastic about the young pitching, and I think that with a strong tailwind they can approach .500.


I'm enthusiastic about the young pitching too, but more in a 2011 view. I expect this year to be ugly as they wade through the options and figure out who is cut out for the starting rotation, who is cut out for the bullpen, and who just needs to be cut.
   43. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 09, 2010 at 12:49 AM (#3456429)
I was going to suggest that Brian Bixler compared to Brian Bocock in this area, but his projection last year was a robust 59 OPS+, so no such luck.
   44. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 09, 2010 at 12:57 AM (#3456435)
I'll probably do the split Tallet on the disk. Sorry for the confusion.

I'll make sure and do Campbell.

Yeah, I did Jeroloman and Arencibia back-to-back so I looked at the wrong line for one of them when entering it into DMB. Not sure which one on first glance at the moment (new laptop and I don't have ZiPS stuff on it yet), but the player with the wrong projection won't have a good projeciton.
   45. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 09, 2010 at 12:57 AM (#3456436)
I remember I requested Jonathan Schuerholz's projection one year, and I think Bocock's is better. Though Bocock actually made the major leagues, unlike Schuerholz.

Jonny Nepotism!
   46. flournoy Posted: February 09, 2010 at 12:59 AM (#3456440)
I found Mr. Nepotism's projection! 2007: .180/.236/.230. This was in the good old days before Dan projected OPS+, but you get the idea.
   47. Good cripple hitter Posted: February 09, 2010 at 01:10 AM (#3456448)
Bockock comes ahead of Johnny Nepotism. His 2007 projection was .180/.236/.230. But a catcher named Armando Camacaro for the Indians projects to .168/.215/.221. Ricky Gutierrez projected to .177/.278/.210. Another catcher named Casey Kopitzke had a .189/.235/.211 line. So there have been worse lines churned out.
   48. frannyzoo Posted: February 09, 2010 at 01:17 AM (#3456452)
If I didn't know any better, I'd say that team is an attempt to have Canada contracted out of MLB. In that division we could be looking at Tigers under Trammell type numbers. Unless the O's suck just as badly and get the Jays to 65 wins or so.

The son of Doug Drabek is now in the majors? I'm having an "I'm old" moment.
   49. flournoy Posted: February 09, 2010 at 01:19 AM (#3456454)
Don't forget Francoeur. I didn't see his projection, but after watching him over the years, I'd guess that it's probably about .220/.219/.250.
   50. RJ in TO Posted: February 09, 2010 at 01:29 AM (#3456462)
The son of Doug Drabek is now in the majors? I'm having an "I'm old" moment.


He's not in the majors yet. You've probably got until the All-Star break before the "I'm old" moment kicks in.
   51. Wes Parkers Mood (Mike Green) Posted: February 09, 2010 at 01:50 AM (#3456474)
Marcum's 2nd comp is Eckersley...He doesn't have the drinking issue, but he was a closer in college.

Is it my imagination or is Hoffpauir a noticeably better choice than Encarnacion to play third base? I mean, I know Encarnacion's got the contract, but wouldn't you be doing the young pitchers a favour by playing the better defender (and the slightly better hitter)?
   52. Wes Parkers Mood (Mike Green) Posted: February 09, 2010 at 02:15 AM (#3456488)
Incidentally, the walk projection for Zep (5.34/9IP) seems high. His walk rates in low A through the majors have been 3.35, 3.12, 4.12, 3.18 and 4.40.
   53. JJ1986 Posted: February 09, 2010 at 02:19 AM (#3456490)
He's not in the majors yet.

Eric Young's son is, though.
   54. John DiFool2 Posted: February 09, 2010 at 02:23 AM (#3456492)
And the most boring, all of the other awful teams have at least one potential superstar.


Snider is their only hope there, but not right away at least. Lind had a superstar-ish year in '09, and could improve on it.
   55. formerly dp Posted: February 09, 2010 at 03:17 AM (#3456522)
Lind (117), Hill (103), Overbay (100) and Snider (99) are all projected to come in at a 100 OPS+ this year, but those projections seem pretty pessimistic. Snider was at 99 in 2009; it seems a little odd to think he won't be any better. Overbay was at 122, Hill at 117, and Lind was at 144. I think it's unlikely that all of these players regress significantly. If so, it really stings to be a Jay fan and know that your team failed to make anything positive come out of career years by Lind, Hill and Scutaro. I figured they'd be able to move Overbay after his rebound year. Encarnacion's projection looks a bit low too (89) for a guy who has never come in below 93 and is heading into his age 27 season. Aside from catcher and SS, it looks like there's room for a lot of variance in their offense. Bringing Delgado in to DH seems like a pretty smart and obvious move, though it looks like they've scrapped that plan. A former franchise player beloved by the city making a run at 500 HRs would be a nice face to put on an otherwise dismal season, especially given the loss of Halladay. I gotta imagine some of that hitting know-how would rub off well on Lind and Snider (maybe even Buck if they're lucky...). Even if they had Delgado protect the younger guys from getting hitting advice from Cito, it'd be worth the money...
   56. Clint Posted: February 09, 2010 at 03:18 AM (#3456524)
Missing a Morrow projection.
   57. Walt Davis Posted: February 09, 2010 at 04:15 AM (#3456562)
On Snider, it's the K-rate. He's projected to K more than 1 per 3 AB. His on-contact projection is reasonably robust (about 350/650) ... I'd think that's probably quite good for a 22-year-old.
   58. RJ in TO Posted: February 09, 2010 at 04:20 AM (#3456565)
Missing a Morrow projection.


It's over here.
   59. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: February 09, 2010 at 04:41 AM (#3456574)
I know I'm late to the party but oh man, what a crappy team. What other non-rebuilding teams have been this crappy?
   60. Greg K Posted: February 09, 2010 at 04:47 AM (#3456582)
HamiltonJoey

Hooray! Love to see that comp for a Jays pitcher. (McGowan)

EDIT: Also I missed the acquisition of Dana Eveland and the return of Zach Jackson. Not that those guys are likely to do much, but when did that happen?
   61. Good cripple hitter Posted: February 09, 2010 at 05:06 AM (#3456597)
Nothing could be worse than the Aaron Hill / Shea Hillenbrand comparison, or two of the young pitchers being compared to Jamie Moyer, pre-craftiness.

Personally, I'm treating McGowan as a write-off until he starts a few games. His ZiPS comps could be Joey Hamilton, Mike Sirotka, and Juan Guzman and I wouldn't care.

Edit: Eveland happened last week, Jackson in early January.
   62. 92-93 Posted: February 09, 2010 at 05:53 AM (#3456611)
ZIPS was atrocious with the Jays last year. The two guys it predicted to hit well, Wells (.773) & Rios (.825), didn't (.711, .744). Lind, Hill, Scutaro, and Rolen all significantly outhit their projections, and Overbay to a lesser extent, who when healthy is always a better than league average hitter. I also find the projection of Encarnacion to be confusing, seeing as he's never had a SLG that low in his career, so maybe ZIPS knows something we don't about his real age (and the fact that it has Jarrett Hoffpauir ahead of him is seriously funny). I guarantee the Jays finish ahead of the Orioles, whose bandwagon everyone is already jumping on as the "new Rays, ready to compete in 2011", and that Travis Snider's OPS+ is well north of 99 if he's an everyday player. This team isn't nearly as bad as many in this thread seem to think.
   63. Andrew Edwards Posted: February 09, 2010 at 06:08 AM (#3456616)
well, we're probably about to find out exactly what impact defense can have - has any team swung this much from year-to-year in defensive ability while keeping many of the same pitchers?
   64. formerly dp Posted: February 09, 2010 at 06:16 AM (#3456618)
What other non-rebuilding teams have been this crappy?

The Jays are a rebuilding team now.

This team isn't nearly as bad as many in this thread seem to think.

If everyone hits like ZIPS says they will, it'll be a pretty bad team. I don't think that's very likely, though. With Snider, ZIPS is projecting no growth, Encarnacion to hit worse at age 27, and Hill and Lind to both settle in between 2008 and 2009. They could score some runs despite punting SS and C. The problem, as Ryan pointed out, is that their D will be substantially worse. Hill and Overbay are both pretty good, but the positives end there.

John Buck slugged .484 last year, though in limited time. Not bad. Given how bad the Jays' production at catcher was last year, he'll probably be an improvement.
   65. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: February 09, 2010 at 06:30 AM (#3456622)
has any team swung this much from year-to-year in defensive ability while keeping many of the same pitchers?

I think it's the second part that's going to torpedo an otherwise potentially interesting case study. I figure the Jays are going to have less pitching continuity from 2009 to 2010 than your average team, not more.
   66. Zoppity Zoop Posted: February 09, 2010 at 06:38 AM (#3456624)
Scutaro was a 33-year-old shortstop that beat his career high OPS+ by 15 points. Hill had 28 homers total in his career before 2009. Rios had his worst year ever with a massive dropoff from recent years.

The Blue Jays were weird. I'd seriously be question ZIPS if it got most of the Jays lineup last year <U>correctly</U> because only a poorly designed system would project some of those actual results.
   67. Walt Davis Posted: February 09, 2010 at 12:47 PM (#3456674)
With Snider, ZIPS is projecting no growth

There's just not really any way he can grow unless he drops his K-rate -- and so far his major-league K-rate is right in line with his minor-league. His projected walk rate is solid and, as I said, he's projected to hit about 350/650 on-contact. It's possible he could go all Mark Reynolds but it's unlikely; more likely is he'll have a brief period of Wily Mo Pena usefulness. Hopefully he'll pull a Justin Upton and cut down on the Ks.*

It might normally make perfect sense to think that a 21-year-old with a 98 OPS+ would improve at age 22. But I expect Dan to come along any moment now and say that it doesn't happen that way for guys who K 1 per 3 AB.

* I see Upton hit 406/720 on-contact last year. That's not likely to happen again. ZiPS projects 382/706 which seems a little high for a projection.
   68. formerly dp Posted: February 09, 2010 at 02:12 PM (#3456693)
There's just not really any way he can grow unless he drops his K-rate -- and so far his major-league K-rate is right in line with his minor-league. His projected walk rate is solid and, as I said, he's projected to hit about 350/650 on-contact. It's possible he could go all Mark Reynolds but it's unlikely; more likely is he'll have a brief period of Wily Mo Pena usefulness.

Snider's had better walk rates than Pena though, which should be cause for optimism, no? (that's a real question) Pena never walked more than 36 times a season in the minors, 22 in the majors, whereas Snider's been over the 10% mark in his minor league career, and slightly below it as a 21 year-old i the majors. That suggests he's got a clue about the strike zone, no?
   69. Rants Mulliniks Posted: February 09, 2010 at 02:17 PM (#3456697)
Yikes, ZIPS is even more pessimistic than I've been. I do think Randy Ruiz will surprise a lot of people, I will be personally schocked if he doesn't put up an OPS of at least .850. Hopefully Lind will continue to hit around .300/.360/.500. There isn't much of a reason to watch the team other than that, unless Cito decides to let McDonald start 120+ games so he can win a Gold Glove.
   70. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: February 09, 2010 at 02:42 PM (#3456712)
Bo bo bo Bocock, bo bo Bocock,
Mum mum mum mah
Bo bo bo Bocock, bo bo Bocock,
Mum mum mum mah
   71. Rusty Priske Posted: February 09, 2010 at 03:04 PM (#3456721)
This is a lot more negative spin than I was expecting.

Not the results, because I too expect them to finish last in the division, but the idea that there is nothing to root for and nothing to look forward to is just wrong.

Aaron Hill and Adam Lind are worth cheering for. Kyle Drabek and Brett Wallace are players to look forward to as they come up this year.

They are going to lose but AA is sending the team in the right direction.
   72. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 09, 2010 at 03:42 PM (#3456744)
Predictions on what the staff looks like? MLBTR makes the point that the Jays have a ton of guys that are out of options, meaning either trades, or passing guys through waivers will become a possibility.

Regarding the five rotation jobs, Ricky Romero, Shaun Marcum, Brandon Morrow, and Marc Rzepczynski are my frontrunners. Having been retained on a $2MM contract, Tallet would appear to have a good shot at some role on the 12-man staff.

That leaves out of options pitchers McGowan, Valdez, and Henn battling for two spots. But as Bastian notes, Jeremy Accardo, Casey Janssen, Josh Roenicke, Steven Register, Willie Collazo, Zach Jackson, Lance Broadway, Scott Richmond, and Rule 5 pick Zech Zinicola will all be in the mix this spring as well. And the Jays acquired Dana Eveland after Bastian's article was published.
   73. jfish26101 Posted: February 09, 2010 at 03:57 PM (#3456757)
I don't know, I was a bit surprised by some of the projections as well. I think Snyder/Lind are pretty good bats, both seem like they could easily surpass that OPS+. Given park and league, they really are very good young hitters I think.

Hill was a highly touted prospect I think? I'm pretty indifferent on him but I think a case could be made that he can easily surpass that projection across the board.

Wells probably isn't a great candidate to rebound this year if what was said about having surgery on his wrist during the off-season is true. I think he could eventually bounce back and be a fairly productive player but he will never make that contract look good.

I've never been a fan of Overbay, Hoffpauir, or Bautista and I'm close to giving up on Encarnacion but I think you could make a case for them to surpass their projections.

The pitching is even harder to project, a lot of their players have very small sample sizes and there have been so many injuries in recent history with their staff it's hard to tell what they will do. The Jays definitely aren't a strong team but I could definitely see them doing a better than we see above.
   74. Pujols Shot Ya Posted: February 09, 2010 at 04:13 PM (#3456768)
Cody Haerther sighting! And Hoffpauir and Wallace! I'm gonna start the ex-Redbird replacement level love fest... right now!
   75. Mike Webber Posted: February 09, 2010 at 04:16 PM (#3456773)
Not the results, because I too expect them to finish last in the division, but the idea that there is nothing to root for and nothing to look forward to is just wrong.


Welcome to the shoes of your average Royals' fan for the past 15 years or so.
   76. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: February 09, 2010 at 04:18 PM (#3456776)
The son of Doug Drabek is now in the majors? I'm having an "I'm old" moment.

Don't feel bad -- I have Ray Boone and Gus Bell cards from my youth and their grandsons have aged out of baseball.
   77. Paul D(uda) Posted: February 09, 2010 at 05:55 PM (#3456848)
I'm looking forward to seeing the young pitchers next year. I also an quite confident that the Jays will not be the worst team in baseball next year, and would be happy to baseball reference sponsor bet someone who thinks that they will be.
   78. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 09, 2010 at 06:15 PM (#3456871)
I'm looking forward to seeing the young pitchers next year. I also an quite confident that the Jays will not be the worst team in baseball next year, and would be happy to baseball reference sponsor bet someone who thinks that they will be.

Wouldn't it be better to be the worst, if you're going to lose 95+ anyway?

At least get the #1 pick out of your shitty season.
   79. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: February 09, 2010 at 06:22 PM (#3456881)
Hmm. Worst clearly from a record perspective? I dunno man, dem Jays have as good a shot as anyone.

I'm still going to go with the Royals. Monarchs, Missionaries, Cyan Birds, and Natinals in that order.
   80. RJ in TO Posted: February 09, 2010 at 06:47 PM (#3456914)
I also an quite confident that the Jays will not be the worst team in baseball next year, and would be happy to baseball reference sponsor bet someone who thinks that they will be.


I don't think they'll be the worst either, but I do think they're likely to be in the bottom 20%. Between an extremely young (and potentially volatile) starting rotation, very little obvious upside on offense (and little to no help in the high minors), a bullpen likely to be overworked, the unbalanced schedule, and the Jays' tradition of underperforming their pythag, this team looks like a lock for 90+ losses.

Off hand, the only team that I would confidentally bet to be worse than the Jays is the Royals.
   81. Paul D(uda) Posted: February 09, 2010 at 07:26 PM (#3456958)
Wouldn't it be better to be the worst, if you're going to lose 95+ anyway?


This is easy to say, but I'm going to go to games and follow the team next year, and I'd like to see them win.

Other than the loss of Halladay, what's going to be worse this year?

I realize that's a big loss, but still, he's only one guy.
   82. RJ in TO Posted: February 09, 2010 at 07:31 PM (#3456965)
Other than the loss of Halladay, what's going to be worse this year?


3B and SS. Encarnacion and Sea Bass don't exactly match up well with Rolen and Scutaro.

I realize that's a big loss, but still, he's only one guy.


One guy worth 6-7 WAR, on a team that only managed to win 76 games.
   83. Rusty Priske Posted: February 09, 2010 at 07:37 PM (#3456967)
They are worse at SP, 3B, SS, RF (arguably)
They are better at RP... and that is it.


Where they are REALLY better is in the minors, which is why I am not wringing my hands like some. I predict that the Jays win 70-75 games this year, but then immediately start to rise in 2011.
   84. MM1f Posted: February 09, 2010 at 07:50 PM (#3456978)
There's just not really any way he can grow unless he drops his K-rate -- and so far his major-league K-rate is right in line with his minor-league. His projected walk rate is solid and, as I said, he's projected to hit about 350/650 on-contact. It's possible he could go all Mark Reynolds but it's unlikely; more likely is he'll have a brief period of Wily Mo Pena usefulness. Hopefully he'll pull a Justin Upton and cut down on the Ks.*
It might normally make perfect sense to think that a 21-year-old with a 98 OPS+ would improve at age 22. But I expect Dan to come along any moment now and say that it doesn't happen that way for guys who K 1 per 3 AB.


This is also a guy whose minor league numbers came against AA pitching at age 20 and AAA pitching at age 21.
I don't know why to completely disregard the idea a talented young hitter can cut down on his strikeouts to some extent.
   85. Ron Johnson Posted: February 09, 2010 at 07:55 PM (#3456984)
I'd be slightly optimistic in that there are people who will either out-perform their projection or can be effortlessly upgraded. I don't know that they will. I think there's a real chance they'll simply mail it in.
   86. Walt Davis Posted: February 09, 2010 at 08:02 PM (#3456994)
Snider's had better walk rates than Pena though, which should be cause for optimism, no?

I'm not sure "optimism" is the right word but, yes, his walk rate is a definite positive. It makes him more valuable than other high-K players and it means it is possible that he can develop into a productive hitter with that K-rate. Now, as you later imply, does a good walk rate suggest that he has a better chance of cutting down his Ks than a high-K guy with a low walk rate. Seems logical but I have no idea if there's empirical evidence in favor of that or not. But, if anything, for a 22-year-old, I'd guess the odds of the bottom falling out and a return to AAA are higher (ZiPS seems to agree given the 45% "poor" ODDIBE).

Presumably Dan's too busy so I'll just keep talking out of my ass until he gets here to share some actual data-driven opinions. :-) K-rates tend to be pretty stable. Obviously some guys do improve their K-rates but I don't know that there's any particular (data-driven) reason to think Snider is one of those. To be successful with that K-rate, you need to have a good walk rate and crush the ball. ZiPS projects Snider to a good walk rate and a pretty solid 350/650 on-contact production and he still comes out to a 99 OPS+. To be substantially better than that, he's either got to drop the K-rate or start crushing the ball. Thing is, with that K-rate, even if he steps up into Ryan Braun* territory (roughly 380/720), that still translates to an overall BA of 253 and overall SLG of 480. Add in the walk rate and that's an overall OPS of 820 which I think comes out around a 115 OPS+ -- that's probably a realistic upside projection for his 2010 season. But as far as I know, despite his youth, there's no empirical reason to think that Snider will follow that development path.

I agree that Pena wasn't the best name to bring up, but I didn't mean to suggest that Snider will share Pena's fate. I meant more that, in his early years, Pena had years where he managed an OPS+ in the 105-115 range by crushing the ball (his career on-contact numbers are a little better than Snider's so far). I'm sure Snider will have some years like that too -- and ZiPS gives him roughly a 30% chance of having one in 2010. I'm just cautioning not to get carried away until you see Snider establish either a lower K-rate or higher on-contact rates.* Until one or both of those things happen, his offensive upside is quite limited.

* For example, Justin Upton's big break out featured both. The question is whether he can sustain.
   87. J. Lowenstein Apathy Club Posted: February 09, 2010 at 08:32 PM (#3457045)
Other than the loss of Halladay, what's going to be worse this year?


It's not just Doc (and Rolen and Scutaro as Ryan brought up). Losing Brad Arnsberg was in my opinion as crushing a loss as Doc.

Arnsberg's ability to bring seemingly unready AA and AAA pitchers to the majors and turn them into major-league average starters was uncanny, and I think unmatched in the modern game. He might be the best guy in baseball at working with young pitchers (and why I have a suspicion the Astros are about to get a lot better). Arny hardly ever had a guy fail on him... everyone they brought up at least battled to a draw, especially the guys with unprepossessing stuff. The Purceys he had a bit more trouble with, but still the Jays have relied very, very heavily on young pitching the last several years, and those pitchers have been very successful. And now their very fine pitching coach is gone, without fanfare but I bet with pretty devastating effects.
   88. Good cripple hitter Posted: February 09, 2010 at 09:03 PM (#3457079)
Other than the loss of Halladay, what's going to be worse this year?


The loss of Rios will hurt the team defensively, and they now are a Wells hamstring tweak away from Jeremy Reed or Joey Gathright being the starting CFer.

It's been mentioned, but I don't think you can really overemphasize how much this team lost at SS. Scutaro was - by some metrics - one of the most valuable players in the AL (or even baseball) last year, and now he's been replaced by Gonzo, who was one of the least valuable players in all of baseball. Losing Halladay and Scutaro and replacing them with Gonzalez and Morrow are two major losses for a team that wasn't very good to being with.

Edit:

I think there's a real chance they'll simply mail it in.

I think this is another issue. Cito's a lame duck who is unliked by part of the clubhouse. Worse, he's been granted a bizarre retirement tour. Managament seems to be content with tanking this year and picking up a high draft pick. I'd expect everyone to be professional about it, but if ever there was a season for a player to take it easy on the basepaths, to let a ball drop instead of going for the diving catch, to basically follow the Hillebrand 'play for yourself, play for you contract' code, this is it.
   89. heyyoo Posted: February 10, 2010 at 02:57 AM (#3457445)
Walt, I think the evidence you are looking for is in Snider's O-Swing%. He got that to a reasonable 27.1% in 2009. (down from 33.3% in his limited sample size in 2008). He swung at a lot fewer pitches outside the zone, and this is an area that he can continue to improve. If he does, the K's will get down to under 30%. The other point is that his contact rate on pitches in the zone (81.7%) is a full ten percentage points higher than guys like Reynolds and Chris Davis who don't crack 71% and 7 points better than Carlos Pena for example.

Considering his age,I feel pretty confident he will continue to get somewhat more selective and probably improve his contact rate on pitches in the zone as well. Don't be surprised at all to see that K rate dip under 30% as soon as 2010.
He's awful young and has already shown he can move the needle on key indicators.
   90. MM1f Posted: February 10, 2010 at 03:09 AM (#3457453)
I'm sure Snider will have some years like that too -- and ZiPS gives him roughly a 30% chance of having one in 2010. I'm just cautioning not to get carried away until you see Snider establish either a lower K-rate or higher on-contact rates.* Until one or both of those things happen, his offensive upside is quite limited.

But how is a statement like that at all useful when talking about a player as young and inexperienced (at the MLB level) as Travis Snider?
It goes without saying that almost every MLB player out there had to improve significantly from their 22 year old talent level to become good MLB players. It certainly isn't very useful as far as projecting anything. You won't project him to be a good player until he becomes a good player?
   91. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: February 10, 2010 at 03:47 AM (#3457472)
A's or astros?
   92. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 10, 2010 at 03:53 AM (#3457478)
You won't project him to be a good player until he becomes a good player?

Well, for a lot of guys, that's true (although ZiPS sees Bruce and Escobar becoming good players based on mean projections).

That's why projection guys are making more of an effort to present the whole array of possibilities in a concise a manner as can be done easily.

In this case, even if the mean projection isn't Snider being a good player, ZiPS does present an estimation that gives Snider a really good shot at being a good player in 2010. The whole line for Snider for OPS+

160+ 1-in-699
140+ 1.4%
130+ 4.6%
120+ 10.2%
110+ 24.5%
100+ 48.0%
90+ 73.6%
80+ 90.8%
60+ 97.7%

Snider is risky and people generally overrate the probability that a young player will improve.

While BABIP is much more of an ability for a batter than a pitcher, it does regress heavily and there's a pretty solid ability-based upper limit. A big part of Snider being a star at this moment involves him maintaining something that nobody ever does. That's a formula for a very risky player in the short-term.
   93. Ken015 Posted: February 10, 2010 at 03:54 AM (#3457480)
Athletics, would be next I think.
   94. RollingWave Posted: February 10, 2010 at 04:45 AM (#3457510)
EDIT: and that Brett Wallace projection is strikingly pessimistic. Is there something in his performance record I am missing?


ZIPs generally seem to be conservatives on guys that havn't played in the majors. and Wallace's preformance last year wasn't really up to his reputation anyway. he hit in the low .800s with only averagish control of the strike zone at best. for someone taughted of being a polished college hitter with great eye and power, he hasn't shown a whole lot of those last year. obviously prospects are not exactly the most predictable players out there. but just looking at his minor league line so far there are some definate red flags when you see a "polished" college hitter destroy the low minors then hit only ok in the high one.

We probably need one more season of him in the him minors to make more definitive take on his ability, which also means that if he comes up right now it's probably a disastor.

Given the context of the scheduel, I'm not even sure if the Royals would suck more than the Jays. the Jays have no one on the calibler of a Zach Grienke, and the Royals have at least some mild upsides in the likes of Gordon and Butler. if the wise up a little and not carry so many epic holes they might even contend for .500 in that division.

FWIW: Cairo project the Jays = Royals, PECOTA has them as 3 games worse than the Royals, and Chone's depth chart method have them as a wooping 8 games worse than the Royals (YIKES) .

What's more, the Royals probably can contend in that division if they somehow fluke or breakout to a season slightly over .500 (which is definately within the realm of possibility), the Jays would still be like 15 games back if they played .500 ball.
   95. SG Posted: February 10, 2010 at 05:14 AM (#3457517)

FWIW: Cairo project the Jays = Royals, PECOTA has them as 3 games worse than the Royals, and Chone's depth chart method have them as a wooping 8 games worse than the Royals (YIKES) .


Part of that is strength of schedule. I'm pretty sure if you flipped KC and Toronto you wouldn't see that kind of gap.
   96. RollingWave Posted: February 10, 2010 at 07:12 AM (#3457591)
oh I know that SG, i noted it in the paragraph above that one ;)

they're playing in a division that have 2 awesome team, a very good one with high upside, and one that was bad but also have amazing upsides. where as KC is playing in a division where pretty much every team have massive holes
   97. RJ in TO Posted: February 10, 2010 at 06:38 PM (#3457884)
502 ABs for Randy Ruiz? Wow.


Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
   98. jfish26101 Posted: February 10, 2010 at 06:44 PM (#3457892)
Snider is risky and people generally overrate the probability that a young player will improve.

I'm curious, just how much do you think or how much does your model think a young player can improve? Obviously it is a case by case bases but ZiPS is pretty much pessimistic across the board on young players rarely ever projecting a young player to break out before they do. Even the Heyward projection (arguably the top prospect in all of the minors with a pretty good resume to back it up) isn't that optimistic. Same with Strasburg who is really the only other player in the running by most of the industry leaders.

As far as BABIP, players with lots of power and/or speed often carry higher BABIP's than the normal hitter correct? Howard's career BABIP is .333, Pujols' is .321, Cust's is .331, Ramirez's is .344...I'm sure there are more examples and plenty that disprove it but hitters with lots of power and/or speed can sustain high BABIPs.

Snider turned 22 last week and has posted ISOs near .200 every level he has been (despite rushing through the minor leagues) which is plenty of power to suggest he could maintain a BABIP above average. Do you really think he only has a 50% chance of improving? I think a 20-21 year old holding their own at the MLB level would have a better than 50% chance of improving. I was also shocked at the Lind projection, he is only 25 and you have him regressing an awful lot.
   99. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 10, 2010 at 06:45 PM (#3457893)
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.


I need to ask Sean or Nate if I'm the only one that can't seem to communicate this after years and years of doing this or if it's just because my projections tend to be tethered to a more discussion-based area.
   100. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 10, 2010 at 06:48 PM (#3457905)

I'm curious, just how much do you think or how much does your model think a young player can improve?


Depends on the player.

In general, the typical under-25 year-old taking a big step forward will lose about a third of their improvement the following year.

I did the following to illustrate why Sandoval has been projected the way he has the last two years.


In MLB history, there are 297 instances (at the major league level), of:

- Player has 3 consecutive seasons of 300 at-bats or more.
- Player improves by 100 points of OPS in year 2 from year 1
- Player is 25 or under during the improvement year.

The average improvement of these players was 152 points of OPS. On average, in the year after the improvement, these under-25 players maintained roughly 2/3rds of their gain in their following seasons (65.8%).

Sandoval’s combined major league performance and translations in 2007 and 2008:

2007: .680 OPS
2008: .797 OPS

ZiPS projected Sandoval in 2009 to have a .768 OPS, retaining 70.1% of his gain.

2008: .797 OPS
2009: .943 OPS

ZiPS projects Sandoval in 2010 to have an .884 OPS, retaining 71.9% of his gain.
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