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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, December 01, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Washington Nationals

The good news?  Strasburg and Storer are projected to be the best starter and reliever, respectively, on the Nats in 2010.  The bad news?  Two pitchers that have never pitched in the major leagues are projected to be the best starter and reliever.

I know I said this last year, but I still think the Nationals could be a pretty decent team soon, despite the owner avoiding investing his windfall into the team like the plague.  The offense projects to be pretty good, the primary problem being the Nats are an NL team with two designated hitters in Dunn and Willingham and both those players are key parts of the offense.  It’s a tricky situation for the Nats and they might be placed into a situation where they have to trade one of the two for a good bit less than ideal value.  Unfortunately, Dunn is as bad as first baseman as he is an outfielder.

The pitching, of course, was a disaster this season, with the team finishing with a 5.02 ERA in a pitcher’s park.  They may not have been quite that bad consider the team’s rather lackluster defense, but they were still pretty bottom of the barrel.  Sadly, Jordan Zimmermann won’t even step on the field until 2011 after elbow surgery.  The Nats could have an adequate rotation if Strasburg has a great debut and Lannan continues the blood sorcery that enables him to get batters to weakly hit changeups not much slower than his fastballs and the team shells out big money on someone like Lackey.  Yes, I’m laughing too at the last one.

It would also help if the Nats overcame their apparent love for relievers that walk a lot of batters, a fairly unique fetish among major league teams. 

Offensive Projections

Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Adam Dunn*          lf 30 .256 .389 .512 155 531 86 136 26 1 36 103 112 178 3 1   143
Ryan Zimmerman       3b 25 .285 .353 .501 148 589 98 168 37 3 28 94 62 111 2 1   129
Josh Willingham       lf 31 .264 .363 .491 125 428 66 113 27 2 22 67 55 99 4 2   130
Dmitri Young#        1b 36 .288 .361 .424 52 170 19 49 11 0 4 21 19 29 0 0   113
Elijah Dukes#        rf 26 .254 .354 .432 101 347 48 88 20 3 12 55 49 80 8 8   113
Willie Harris*        cf 32 .249 .347 .397 124 325 50 81 17 5 7 30 44 63 13 6   103
Michael Morse         1b 28 .271 .321 .420 90 314 37 85 19 2 8 48 19 59 1 1   100
Daryle Ward*        1b 35 .260 .332 .399 88 208 21 54 11 0 6 27 23 43 1 0   98
Ian Desmond         ss 24 .270 .334 .388 121 441 52 119 25 3 7 34 38 107 15 4   96
Cristian Guzman#      ss 32 .296 .326 .409 108 443 63 131 22 5 6 41 19 58 4 4   99
Austin Kearns         rf 30 .237 .341 .377 106 337 46 80 16 2 9 42 46 76 2 2   96
Jesus Flores         c   25 .260 .318 .417 73 223 24 58 12 1 7 37 17 59 0 1   99
Nyjer Morgan*        cf 29 .281 .339 .359 112 423 78 119 17 5 2 38 30 71 35 14   91
Josh Bard#          c   32 .251 .320 .371 94 291 26 73 18 1 5 35 29 50 0 1   88
Jorge Padilla         rf 30 .272 .329 .361 118 393 54 107 16 2 5 30 27 57 11 8   88
Norris Hopper         rf 31 .281 .326 .342 92 310 40 87 12 2 1 23 21 26 13 5   83
Justin Maxwell       cf 26 .224 .303 .361 112 388 56 87 14 3 11 41 40 130 22 6   80
Alberto Gonzalez       ss 27 .267 .304 .360 85 247 28 66 13 2 2 26 12 26 1 1   80
Joel Guzman         3b 25 .243 .287 .380 126 460 51 112 23 2 12 59 26 107 3 2   80
Matt Whitney         3b 26 .235 .297 .350 132 460 46 108 24 1 9 45 38 122 1 1   76
Chris Marrero         1b 21 .228 .291 .361 116 435 44 99 21 2 11 49 34 120 1 3   77
Wil Nieves           c   32 .254 .299 .333 70 213 18 54 9 1 2 24 13 36 1 0   72
Pete Orr*          3b 31 .245 .292 .358 128 371 49 91 15 6 5 38 21 77 13 6   76
Danny Espinosa#      ss 23 .211 .303 .345 137 513 70 108 25 4 12 56 60 165 20 11   76
Rogearvin Bernadina*    cf 26 .244 .306 .324 84 312 39 76 12 2 3 22 27 77 18 8   72
Seth Bynum           2b 29 .227 .273 .357 123 428 45 97 19 2 11 47 27 132 4 3   70
Michael Burgess*      rf 21 .205 .274 .338 137 517 47 106 23 2 14 57 43 185 6 6   66
Jamie Burke         c   38 .231 .270 .333 43 117 10 27 6 0 2 12   7 22 0 0   63

Defensive Projections

Name           CThr 1b     2b     3b     ss     lf     cf     rf    
Dunn*            Pr/177                 Pr/143       Pr/194
Zimmerman                     Ex/93                      
Willingham                               Pr/98       Pr/98  
Young#            Pr/207                                
Dukes#                                  Av/170 Pr/104 Av/170
Harris*                Av/131 Av/131       Vg/95   Av/93      
Morse             Av/120       Fr/120 Pr/128 Fr/120       Fr/120
Ward*            Pr/111                 Pr/111       Pr/111
Desmond                 Vg/147       Vg/147                
Guzman#                Av/115       Fr/115                
Kearns                                             Vg/76  
Flores         Av                                      
Morgan*                                Ex/75   Ex/133      
Bard#          Pr                                      
Padilla                                 Av/83       Av/136
Hopper                                 Vg/101 Vg/73   Vg/66  
Maxwell                                 Av/86   Av/135 Av/86  
Gonzalez                 Av/63       Fr/121                
Guzman             Av/112       Av/112       Fr/90       Fr/90  
Whitney           Av/188       Fr/188                      
Marrero           Av/170                 Fr/199       Fr/199
Nieves         Av                                      
Orr*                  Av/67   Av/87   Pr/87   Av/87   Fr/87   Av/87  
Espinosa#                          Vg/122                
Bernadina*                              Vg/107 Av/107 Vg/107
Bynum                   Av/120       Fr/142                
Burgess*                                          Av/134
Burke         Av   Fr/100                                

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name           PO   EX   VG   AV   FR   PO       COMP 1       COMP 2       COMP 3
DunnAdam       LF   68%  25%  5%  1%  0%  TartabullDanny     KinerRalph   LuzinskiGreg
ZimmermanRyan     3B   54%  34%  9%  2%  1%  RamirezAramis     ChavezEric   JonesWillie
WillinghamJosh   LF   41%  35%  15%  7%  2%  FlagsteadIra   TaylorDanny   BriggsJohnny
YoungDmitri     1B   6%  26%  32%  30%  6%    SeguiDavid   BergmanDave     WertzVic
DukesElijah     RF   7%  22%  25%  28%  18%  KearnsAustin     GrossGabe     GeigerGary
GuzmanCristian   SS   14%  27%  37%  17%  5%    JurgesBilly   ApplingLukeGrudzielanekMark
HarrisWillie     CF   13%  22%  36%  23%  6%    MilnerEddie   ThompsonMilt     LandisJim
DesmondIan       SS   24%  35%  30%  9%  1%    FrancoJulio   BlauserJeff   LozadoWillie
MorseMike       1B   1%  6%  13%  43%  37%    QuinlanRobb GutierrezJesse     RussellRip
WardDaryle       1B   1%  6%  10%  38%  46%    MabryJohn     WertzVic   CroweGeorge
MorganNyjer     CF   6%  16%  34%  31%  14%  ThompsonMilt PodsednikScott   SanchezAlex
FloresJesus       C   9%  34%  33%  22%  3%    HayesBill   LindseyBill MacfarlaneMike
KearnsAustin     RF   1%  4%  11%  28%  57%  ArnovichMorrie   HarperTommy   StegmanDave
HopperNorris     RF   0%  1%  2%  10%  87%    OwensEric PalmeiroOrlando   RobinsonKerry
PadillaJorge     RF   0%  1%  3%  12%  84%    OwensEric     CowensAl   HatcherBilly
BardJosh         C   1%  14%  31%  40%  14%  CasanovaRaul       SaxDave   DeckerSteve
MaxwellJustin     CF   0%  4%  21%  41%  34%      PorterBo   PowellDante   TerreroLuis
GonzalezAlberto   SS   1%  3%  24%  45%  26%  BurnettJohnnyWhiteheadBurgess   GuerreroMario
GuzmanJoel       3B   0%  0%  2%  14%  83%      LeonJose   MoronkoJeff     BellRicky
OrrPete         3B   0%  2%  4%  13%  81%      FoxAndy   BrookensTom     BurkeJamie
NievesWil       C   0%  0%  3%  27%  70%    SpohrerAl   HeintzChris   WilsonJimmie
WhitneyMatthew   1B   1%  1%  0%  1%  96%      NenDick     StarkMatt     LaCockPete
BernadinaRoger   CF   0%  0%  3%  22%  75%  HeathcoteCliff   BergeronPeter WinninghamHerm
MarreroChristophe 1B   0%  0%  0%  1%  99%GuerreroInocenci     JonesRyan     DensonDrew
EspinosaDanny     SS   0%  3%  16%  35%  46% MachadoAnderson   BrumleyMike   LopezFelipe
BynumSeth       2B   0%  0%  1%  5%  94%    CottonJohn     CarusoJoe     HansenJed
BurkeJamie       C   0%  0%  0%  3%  97%  HemsleyRollie     GuerraMike   DifeliceMike
BurgessMichael   RF   0%  0%  0%  0%  100%    BrownAndy   MartinezChito   RobnettRichie

Name         .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB
DunnAdam           9%    64%    50%    48%    1%    0%    75%    0%
ZimmermanRyan       28%    20%    42%    25%    18%    1%    34%    0%
WillinghamJosh     10%    32%    35%    26%    0%    0%    13%    0%
YoungDmitri       37%    33%    9%    5%    0%    0%    0%    0%
DukesElijah         5%    23%    8%    5%    0%    1%    0%    0%
GuzmanCristian     43%    5%    2%    2%    0%    13%    0%    0%
HarrisWillie       3%    17%    3%    2%    0%    6%    0%    0%
DesmondIan         13%    8%    1%    1%    0%    1%    0%    0%
MorseMike         16%    4%    3%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
WardDaryle         12%    12%    2%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
MorganNyjer       27%    9%    0%    0%    0%    8%    0%    80%
FloresJesus       12%    4%    4%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
KearnsAustin       2%    11%    1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
HopperNorris       24%    5%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
PadillaJorge       16%    5%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BardJosh           5%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
MaxwellJustin       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    9%
GonzalezAlberto     15%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
GuzmanJoel         1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
OrrPete           3%    1%    0%    0%    0%    17%    0%    0%
NievesWil         9%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
WhitneyMatthew       2%    1%    2%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BernadinaRoger       2%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    2%
MarreroChristophe     0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
EspinosaDanny       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    6%
BynumSeth         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BurkeJamie         9%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BurgessMichael       0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Stephen Strasburg       21   4.18 10   9 20 20   114.0 115   53 14   36 113 103
Jordan Zimmermann       24   4.31   5   5 22 22   117.0 117   56 14   43 106 100
John Lannan*          25   4.39 11 12 33 33   194.2 203   95 22   70   99   99
J.D. Martin           27   4.71   7   9 28 19   109.0 120   57 15   30   66   92
Garrett Mock         27   4.93   6   9 37 20   122.1 138   67 13   51   98   88
Bradley Meyers         24   5.08   6   9 24 23   118.2 140   67 12   46   73   85
Marco Estrada         26   5.24   6 10 31 25   132.1 153   77 16   52   88   83
Collin Balester       24   5.33   9 14 29 29   150.1 173   89 22   57   91   81
Shairon Martis         23   5.34   6 10 29 28   153.1 174   91 21   65   82   81
Scott Olsen*          26   5.40   6 10 26 26   143.1 165   86 23   56   89   80
Horacio Ramirez*      30   5.48   4   7 32 14   92.0 111   56 12   32   40   79
Luis Atilano         25   5.53   5   9 24 20   109.0 133   67 15   37   48   78
Ross Detwiler*        24   5.58   6 11 30 29   137.0 165   85 14   73   93   78
Matt Chico*          27   5.59   3   6 19 18   85.1   99   53 13   42   51   77
Craig Stammen         26   5.59   6 11 29 26   140.0 172   87 19   52   74   77
Livan Hernandez       35   5.67   7 14 29 29   176.1 224 111 23   59   81   76
Aaron Thompson*        23   6.04   4   9 23 23   117.2 147   79 16   62   60   72
Jesse English*        25   6.15   5 12 27 22   105.1 121   72 17   70   64   70
Jeff Mandel           25   6.35   5 12 25 24   123.1 164   87 18   54   61   68
Zach Segovia         27   6.41   3   9 38 13   92.2 123   66 14   45   49   68

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Drew Storen           22   3.78   2   1 29   0   33.1   32   14   4   12   32 115
Tyler Clippard         25   4.01   5   4 71   0   85.1   74   38 10   44   86 108
Sean Burnett*        27   4.18   3   2 77   0   66.2   59   31   7   34   51 103
Jason Bergmann         28   4.42   4   4 77   0   77.1   78   38   9   32   61   98
Doug Slaten*          30   4.53   2   2 54   0   43.2   47   22   5   17   30   95
Saul Rivera           32   4.70   5   6 69   0   84.1   93   44   7   39   56   92
Ron Villone*          40   4.88   2   3 64   0   51.2   54   28   6   29   37   89
Ryan Mattheus         26   4.97   2   3 36   0   38.0   39   21   5   19   28   87
Logan Kensing         27   5.07   2   3 54   0   60.1   64   34   8   29   47   85
Mike MacDougal         33   5.15   1   2 58   0   57.2   61   33   5   41   43   84
Dave Williams*        31   5.26   2   3 40   0   53.0   60   31   8   23   36   82
Atahualpa Severino*    25   5.54   4   7 45   0   65.0   70   40   8   43   46   78
Victor Garate*        25   5.81   1   3 53   0   57.1   63   37   7   40   44   75

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player         PO     TOP   MID   BOT         COMP 1         COMP 2         COMP 3
StorenDrew       RP     35%  48%  17%    HaynesHeath   StricklandScott       NenRobb
ClippardTyler     RP     22%  62%  16%    JacksonMike       PlunkEric     BochtlerDoug
StrasburgStephen   SP     42%  47%  12%  BondermanJeremy     MyersBrett   VazquezJavier
BurnettSean     RP     19%  53%  29%    ChoateRandy     MohlerMike     NortonPhil
ZimmermannJordan   SP     33%  53%  14%      SmithPete     MyersBrett   MillwoodKevin
LannanJohn       SP     24%  60%  16%      LathamBill     SimmonsScott     JacomeJason
BergmannJay     RP     8%  53%  39%    RigganJerrod       WertzBill   NakamuraMicheal
SlatenDoug       RP     11%  45%  43%      HavensBrad     VenafroMike     EischenJoey
RiveraSaul       RP     5%  40%  55%    GryboskiKevin   McDowellRoger   BernardDwight
MartinJ.D.      SP     14%  52%  34%      SmithRoy   TelghederDave     ParkerClay
VilloneRon       RP     12%  30%  58%    StantonMike     FasseroJeff     McMahonDon
MockGarrett     SP     6%  51%  43%  JacksonRoy Lee   WilliamsBrian     NolesDickie
MattheusRyan     RP     8%  35%  57%    BennettShayne     BorowskiJoe     MarquezJeff
KensingLogan     RP     3%  28%  69%  DonnellyBrendan     HarvilleChad     VillanoMike
MeyersBradley     SP     5%  43%  52%  StableinGeorge   NunezClemente   McDowellRoger
MacDougalMike     RP     6%  28%  66%      ThomasRoy     BochtlerDoug       LeeDavid
EstradaMarco     SP     3%  35%  62%      DavisJason     JohnsonJason     BirkbeckMike
WilliamsDavid     RP     2%  18%  80%      MahayRon     EischenJoey     ClementsPat
BalesterCollin   SP     1%  28%  71%  ChristiansenClay     SnyderJohn     IrelandEric
MartisShairon     SP     1%  25%  74%    CummingsSteve       PooleJim       RoweTom
OlsenScott       SP     1%  25%  74%    CeruttiJohn   SoderstromSteve       SnareRyan
RamirezHoracio   SP     1%  13%  85%  OvermireStubby     BallardJeff     FossasTony
AtilanoLuis     SP     1%  20%  79%  ChristopherMike     LincolnMike       FreedDan
SeverinoAtahualpa RP     1%  17%  82%    MancusoPaul     WilliamsMike       BrownChad
DetwilerRoss     SP     1%  18%  82%    ThompsonDerek       SmithMatt       ViningKen
ChicoMatt       SP     1%  17%  82%    GeorgeChris     FloresRandy   PulsipherBill
StammenCraig     SP     0%  16%  84%    RasnerDarrell StechschulteGene     AhearnePat
HernandezLivan   SP     1%  13%  86%    NagyCharles     JohnsonJason     TerrellWalt
GarateVictor     RP     1%  12%  88%    HamiltonJimmy     MiglioJohn     RomeroJ.C.
ThompsonAaron     SP     0%  6%  94%    LockhartBruce     GeorgeChris     HinckleyMike
EnglishJesse     SP     0%  5%  95%      DevineJoey     MusserNeal       OjalaKirt
MandelJeff       SP     0%  2%  98%    PauleyDavid     TorresMelqui       YettRich
SegoviaZach     SP     0%  1%  99%    GuzmanPedro     BonineEddie       RodneyLee

Player         130 ERA+  100 ERA+  K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9

<1
StorenDrew 35% 75% 63% 11% 70%
ClippardTyler 17% 75% 84% 0% 56%
StrasburgStephen 12% 65% 78% 6% 51%
BurnettSean 14% 65% 11% 0% 58%
ZimmermannJordan 8% 57% 51% 1% 46%
LannanJohn 5% 52% 0% 2% 55%
BergmannJay 5% 48% 15% 0% 58%
SlatenDoug 11% 48% 4% 5% 70%
RiveraSaul 4% 34% 1% 0% 86%
MartinJ.D. 2% 32% 0% 19% 33%
VilloneRon 9% 36% 12% 1% 65%
MockGarrett 0% 22% 16% 0% 72%
MattheusRyan 8% 34% 10% 0% 53%
KensingLogan 2% 25% 14% 0% 47%
MeyersBradley 0% 15% 0% 0% 72%
MacDougalMike 5% 23% 13% 0% 78%
EstradaMarco 0% 11% 0% 0% 44%
WilliamsDavid 1% 15% 3% 1% 36%
BalesterCollin 0% 5% 0% 0% 20%
MartisShairon 0% 6% 0% 0% 29%
OlsenScott 0% 5% 0% 0% 12%
RamirezHoracio 1% 10% 0% 4% 41%
AtilanoLuis 0% 4% 0% 3% 27%
SeverinoAtahualpa 1% 10% 4% 0% 48%
DetwilerRoss 0% 3% 1% 0% 70%
ChicoMatt 0% 5% 0% 0% 23%
StammenCraig 0% 2% 0% 0% 35%
HernandezLivan 0% 4% 0% 3% 36%
GarateVictor 0% 6% 13% 0% 39%
ThompsonAaron 0% 1% 0% 0% 33%
EnglishJesse 0% 1% 0% 0% 17%
MandelJeff 0% 0% 0% 0% 24%
SegoviaZach 0% 0% 0% 0% 22%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name           BA OBP SLG   G   AB     R     H   2B 3B   HR RBI   BB   SO SB CS OPS+
DunnAdam       .244 .377 .490 2626 9021   1467   2200 434 13 587 1565 1848   3026 84 45 128
GuzmanCristian   .276 .310 .387 1944 7667   1042   2118 351 114   91 666   353   1080 143 91   83
ZimmermanRyan   .272 .342 .468 2413 9565   1496   2601 560 43 408 1410 1022   1838 39 24 117

Player         W   L   S   ERA     G   GS   IP     H   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
LannanJohn     162   184   0 4.40   493   483 2882   2967   344   1108   1500   98

All figures in % based on projection playing time

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

 

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees




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Dan Szymborski Posted: December 01, 2009 at 09:55 PM | 33 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. bigboy1234 Posted: December 01, 2009 at 10:37 PM (#3400574)
For Strasburg were just AFL stats looked at? Or do you look at San Diego State stats too?
   2. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 01, 2009 at 10:42 PM (#3400578)
Had to look at SDSU stats. I probably only translate college stats for 1 or 2 players a year when I absolutely have to. Assume much larger than normal error bars.
   3. fra paolo Posted: December 01, 2009 at 10:45 PM (#3400580)
The company line is that the Nationals have a shedload of great young pitchers. I'm at a loss to spot many up there, unless the natural aging curve for a 23/24 y.o. means that Detwiler, Balester and Martis ought to see their ERAs fall to league average. (I don't count Strasburg's projection yet. Not enough professional evidence.)

So, based on those career lines, is Dunn a HoFer? Is Zim?
   4. RJ in TO Posted: December 01, 2009 at 10:52 PM (#3400587)
So, based on those career lines, is Dunn a HoFer? Is Zim?


I'd say Zim is easily with that line, given his defense, and position.

Dunn, I have no idea, since I'm sure that most defensive metrics will show that he's giving back a tremendous amount of his offensive value while lumbering around in the outfield.
   5. andrewberg Posted: December 01, 2009 at 10:52 PM (#3400589)
I'm glad that Zimmerman is developing into something resembling a "great" player. I saw one of those games after he was called up his draft year where they played him at SS. Very cool.
   6. rlc Posted: December 01, 2009 at 10:54 PM (#3400592)
Dunn* Pr/177 Pr/143 Pr/194


ZiPS really needs Bd, Ho, or Ug.
   7. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 01, 2009 at 11:00 PM (#3400602)
It would also help if the Nats overcame their apparent love for relievers that walk a lot of batters, a fairly unique fetish among major league teams.

It's not that unique, I'm sorry to say.

I'll take the over on Flores' OPS+.
   8. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 01, 2009 at 11:02 PM (#3400605)
It's not that unique, I'm sorry to say.


Lots of teams end up with relievers that walk a lot of batters, but the Nats seem to actually want them. Like they're at the grocery store and see OMG MIKE MACDOUGAL IS AVAILABLE BUY BUY!!!!
   9. Danny Posted: December 01, 2009 at 11:19 PM (#3400611)
I had no idea Ian Desmond was so good.
   10. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 01, 2009 at 11:51 PM (#3400630)
Ya he's never been ranked that high on prospect lists -- he's got a shot at the All-Star team. On the other hand, Nyjer Morgan's glory day seems to be over.
   11. bigboy1234 Posted: December 02, 2009 at 12:16 AM (#3400647)
Dan, just to make sure here, but did you use AFL stats for Strasburg? And if so, do you use AFL stats for all players?
   12. Walt Davis Posted: December 02, 2009 at 12:50 AM (#3400662)
Que? By OPS+, Willingham is projected to his best ever and Dunn to his 2nd best ever? Don't look right.

On Zimmerman and the HoF -- that line might deserve it and 2400+ games is a lot for a 3B but no way does he make it. A 117 OPS+, no major milestones, at 3B. That sort of a line for a 3B hasn't come close to cutting it with the BBWAA unless you're Brooks Robinson (Santo, Nettles, Boyer, Bando, Cey, Bell, Hack, soon Ventura, soon Rolen) so it would take a major shift in BBWAA standards. That shift might happen by the time he's done (we're seeing some already) or Zimmerman might win a dozen gold gloves.
   13. ugen64 Posted: December 02, 2009 at 01:01 AM (#3400671)
I hope that in 15-20 years, baseball writers will be looking at things like defensive metrics and positional adjustments for HoF voting. And if they do, Zimmermann has an extremely good chance of making it, IMO.

Also, Brooks Robinson wasn't that good a hitter - 104 OPS+. According to BBRef, he was a +14 run third baseman over his career - I think Zimmermann can hover around +10 for his career, and make up the difference with better hitting.

I wonder, should the Nats just eat most of Dunn's salary and move him to an AL team for as good a haul of prospects as possible? He would definitely be the best DH on the market, and at least he can be a warm body in the field, if necessary (which you can't say of Thome, Vlad, or Matsui). Assuming John Lackey doesn't sign with them, it's not like they're gonna add a ton of payroll.
   14. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 02, 2009 at 02:18 AM (#3400739)
I had no idea Ian Desmond was so good.


His bat has really developed over the past couple of years. The Jeff Blauser comp is pretty apt, I think - 10-15 HR and enough walks to post a decent OBP.

-- MWE
   15. AROM Posted: December 02, 2009 at 02:55 AM (#3400762)
Kudos for even attempting to project a guy with no pro experience. Strasburg will be interesting.
   16. Walt Davis Posted: December 02, 2009 at 07:18 AM (#3400919)
Also, Brooks Robinson wasn't that good a hitter - 104 OPS+.

Right, he just won 300 gold gloves. And played in 2900 games.

If you take Brooks from ages 21-35, he had a 110 OPS+ in 2300 games and 9500 PA and that is comparable.
   17. Rants Mulliniks Posted: December 02, 2009 at 04:00 PM (#3401056)
Zimmerman would certainly make the HOF with that line. I love the fact that he's still only 25.

The 3000+ career K's by Dunn were certainlu eye-catching, but I don't think he'll stick around that long.
   18. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 02, 2009 at 04:08 PM (#3401066)
What's always struck me as strange about Adam Dunn is that he's not as slow as one would think.
   19. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 02, 2009 at 04:29 PM (#3401096)
Adam Dunn was a shortstop in high school. Try to picture that for a minute...
   20. Gamingboy Posted: December 02, 2009 at 04:38 PM (#3401109)
Adam Dunn was a shortstop in high school. Try to picture that for a minute...Page 1 of 1 pages


My mind just broke.
   21. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 02, 2009 at 04:45 PM (#3401122)
Adam Dunn was a shortstop in high school. Try to picture that for a minute...

He probably had a lot less muscle then!

The things about Dunn is that while he's not really a sloth out there, he's amazingly clumsy. If he were a pro wrestler, he'd be the Shockmaster.
   22. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 02, 2009 at 04:59 PM (#3401131)
"If he were a pro wrestler, he'd be the Shockmaster."

LOL
   23. Walt Davis Posted: December 02, 2009 at 08:44 PM (#3401423)
Zimmerman would certainly make the HOF with that line.

I should let this go but ... this is just plain wrong and ignorant of history.

Players with at least 1000 games at 3B, elected to the HoF with an OPS+ below 130 (Wade Boggs):

Brooks Robinson, 16 gold gloves, greatest fielding 3B of all time, WS hero, 29000 games played (nearly all at 3B)
Pie Traynor, elected in 1948, 320 BA, considered the greatest fielding 3B to that time

Players with at least 1000 games at 3B and at least 8000 PA and an OPS+ between Robinson/Traynor and Boggs not elected. Not only not elected, not even close:

Ron Santo 125 (also 5 gold gloves)
Bob Elliott 124
Ron Cey 121
Darrell Evans 119 (2700 games overall)
Sal Bando 119
Stan Hack 119 (301 BA career)
Ken Boyer 116 (5 gold gloves)
Robin Ventura 114 (6 gold gloves -- I'm jumping the gun but I'll guess under 10%, probably one and done)
Toby Harrah 114 (plus 800 games as a SS)
Graig Nettles 110 (2700 games, 2 gold gloves ... more if not for Brooks)
Buddy Bell 109 (2400 games, 6 gold gloves)
Eddie Yost 109

The guys elected? Schmidt (548 HR), Mathews (512 HR and he had to wait a few years), Brett (3154 hits, 305 BA), Boggs (3010 hits, 328 BA). Noticing any pattern there?

Feel free to claim that Zimmerman might make it with that line. Feel free to claim that standards are changing so you think that by the time he's done, his defense will be properly valued and his offense properly adjusted for position and he'll probably make it. But there is absolutely no basis to claim that he would certainly make it with that line. As I said, those guys didn't get a real sniff. Don't forget, Santo was one and done -- something embarrassing enough they put him back on the ballot and he's still puttering around through the VC process.

Ryan Zimmerman is not better than Ron Santo. He's not better than Ken Boyer or Robin Ventura or Graig Nettes and probably not better than Buddy Bell. It will take an enormous shift in BBWAA standards for a 3B with that line to get a serious look.

There are three issues. First, the BBWAA has just always had unsupportably high standards for 3B. Second, given that history, every candidate's defense will pale in comparison to Robinson so candidates need offense that won't pale in comparison to Boggs/Brett. I want folks to recognize that last bit particularly. At the moment, the minimum HoF standards for 3B offense are Wade Boggs and George Brett (or Chipper Jones if you prefer). That is well above the minimum line for 1B and corner OF. Third, for a Zimmerman type, any voter will be able to take a look and see those same dozen names, including 5 who were also good defenders, and conclude that a 3B with a 115 OPS+ and a good glove doesn't stand out and isn't HoF-worthy.

It's a joke to me that Santo and Nettles aren't in. The other guys you can ding for having short careers (this would be Zimmerman's main argument if he put up that line, assuming almost all those 2400 games came at 3B) but Boyer, Ventura and Bell certainly wouldn't be bad choices either. Of the guys who weren't so good defensively, I might put Evans in but he had fewer than 1400 starts at 3B. I'd give Harrah a look because of the years at SS -- I wonder if he was actually pretty good defensively (most SS who move to 3B are good 3B) and from 24-33 he put up a 122 OPS+ which is quite nice for a SS/3B but obviously didn't do much of note outside that 10-year peak. Stan Hack's got a case (nice OBP!). The others probably deserved more votes than they got but are clearly not HoFers in my opinion so I can't get too upset about that.
   24. Chris Needham Posted: December 02, 2009 at 08:55 PM (#3401435)
The things about Dunn is that while he's not really a sloth out there, he's amazingly clumsy. If he were a pro wrestler, he'd be the Shockmaster.

That's what I love about him!

At first, for example, he doesn't have terrible range. He can stretch with that big frame. He can catch the ball. Occasionally he looks pretty good.

But every now and then, say, like 1 time out of 20, he just decides to field the ball the same way I would. It's like a live grenade. Or it's like a hot laser that just goes right through him somehow.
   25. Boxkutter Posted: December 03, 2009 at 12:36 PM (#3401893)
It seems you expect Nyjer Morgan to have a significant drop off in production. You have him hitting 20 points below his career average (admittedly, a small sample size), and his OBP to do the same. But he is only turning 30 years old halfway through next season, so he can still be considered to be in his "prime" years. Actually, the projection here would make it his worst season ever as a pro baseball player. Just wondering the reasoning for this. Because of his skillset, his BABIP is naturally high, so I am assuming you don't believe it to be inflated and for him to come back down to earth.

Also, in future projections, or maybe just starting next year, is there a way that groundball percentages for pitchers can be added? I know a lot of people who check these ZIPS out are people in simulation leagues, and that is as important as K and BB rates I believe. A lot of pitchers we can get a rough estimate based on previous seasons, but guys like Strasburg and Storen that you have here don't have much pro experience, so it causes curiosity.
   26. fra paolo Posted: December 03, 2009 at 01:50 PM (#3401905)
Boxkutter makes an interesting point about Morgan's BABIP. His career BABIP is .357, and his lowest was with the Pirates last year, at .325. With the Nationals' he managed an astounding .398. The 2009 NL league average was .299.

Through age 29, Tim Raines' career BABIP was .323, against a 1989 NL average of .277 (about a 7.5 per cent less at the start of a mini-era when hitting fell off rapidly). If you adjust Morgan's .357 by 7.5 percent, you get .330, so he's a better BABIPer than Raines, who was quite high in comparison to his league.

So if ZiPS expects a regression to the league mean, then maybe Morgan's projection is a little low.

(Incidentally, if I'm reading Morgan's BB-Ref page right, he went to high school in Alberta. Is he a closeted Canadian?)

EDIT: It will be interesting to compare Morgan's ZiPS with Skip Schumaker, another high BABIP type (not as high as Morgan) who shows up in Morgan's age 28 comps.
   27. WhoWantsTeixeiraDessert Posted: December 03, 2009 at 10:30 PM (#3402652)
At least I'll have elbow room again. Just wait'll two years from now, we'll only be two years away from being two years away from being two years away...
   28. TerpNats Posted: December 03, 2009 at 10:47 PM (#3402675)
At least I'll have elbow room again. Just wait'll two years from now, we'll only be two years away from being two years away from being two years away...
The curse of the Washington baseball fan.
   29. Copronymus Posted: December 07, 2009 at 07:55 AM (#3405351)
Incidentally, if I'm reading Morgan's BB-Ref page right, he went to high school in Alberta. Is he a closeted Canadian?


Apparently, he left home at 16 to play junior hockey in Canada. Here's an article that gets into it a little more. I'm guessing he's the most distinguished alumnus of the North Okanagan Kings of the Kootenay International Junior Hockey League.
   30. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: December 07, 2009 at 08:21 AM (#3405355)
From Wikipedia:
Morgan occasionally refers to himself as "Tony Plush", which he says is his "gentleman's name".
Awesome.
   31. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: February 15, 2010 at 10:48 PM (#3460793)
Request for Jerry Owens, por favor.
   32. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 15, 2010 at 10:52 PM (#3460797)
275/331/346 for Owens.
   33. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: February 15, 2010 at 11:08 PM (#3460806)
Thanks Dan!

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