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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Sunday, October 16, 2011

2011 ZiPS Minor League Translations 0.9

Archive with files .xlsx and .csv can be found here.  I’m calling this 0.9 for now as there are usually some errors to massage out, sometimes big ones I overlooked.

As a reminder, these are translations, not projections and subject to the same pitfalls as any seasonal line is.

Any errors, omissions, or other questions, feel free to ask.

For those that don’t remember, I have two flavors, one with no $H regression and one with mild $H regression.  I post the latter one as people have found it more useful for their purposes in the past, even if it’s not as “pure” a translation and releasing two sets of translations has the potential to be confusing.




Dan Szymborski Posted: October 16, 2011 at 08:09 PM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 16, 2011 at 08:47 PM (#3965305)
Any who downloaded in the first half-hour, the link previously went to 2011 projections as a result of an error, not as a result of every player in baseball magically hitting their 2011 projections, sadly enough.
   2. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 18, 2011 at 12:47 PM (#3967032)
As always, thanks, Dan.

Any chance we could get a download that's a ZIP instead of a RAR? I'm at work, and for whatever reason, the IT department didn't give us any software to open RARs...
   3. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: October 18, 2011 at 01:06 PM (#3967042)
Thanks so much, Dan.
I know that the minors haven't seen the drop in offense that the bigs did this year, but some of the AAA hitting translations look "low" to me. Did the level factor(s) change? (Note: I've done zero thus far to come up w/ my own ballpark figurings for this season.)
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 18, 2011 at 05:39 PM (#3967389)
Minors didn't just not drop in offense, many leagues had an increase in offense - the PCL ERA of 5.13 this year was the highest it's been since the PCL absorbed some of the less-crazy offensive American Association environments. The Texas League had its highest ERA since 2000. California League, hardly Petco already, had a higher than usual year as well.

International and Eastern, traditionally better pitcher leagues, were right around where they usually are.

Nothing in the nuts and bolts have changed, just relative league offense. I always test common at-bats from year to year to make sure it's the offensive level, not the mix of players, that changed the offensive level and as almost always, it wasn't (there are just too few guys way too good for levels to make a dent, plus they usually get promoted).
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 18, 2011 at 05:41 PM (#3967395)
Vlad, can I just email you the CSVs? They're only a megabyte each uncompressed.
   6. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 18, 2011 at 06:13 PM (#3967429)
Vlad, can I just email you the CSVs? They're only a megabyte each uncompressed.


That'd be great, thanks.
   7. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 18, 2011 at 06:34 PM (#3967458)
Minors didn't just not drop in offense, many leagues had an increase in offense - the PCL ERA of 5.13 t


PCL was at .286/.359/.448
Albuquerque has a 1.23 park multiplier- so we're talking about a .309/.375/.489 context


the Dodgers were at .256/.323/.398

Aside for adjusting for league difficulty (PCL versus MLB) that's one hell of a run environment context shift

I mean a guy hitting .309/375/.489 at Albuquerque- is a league average hitter for the PCL- JD Closser hit .297/.378/.486 - basically he was a PCL average hitter- and Dan has his MLE at .241/.306/.345- which is pretty much what you'd expect a AAA average player to hit for the Dodgers- or as Bill James once said about mles- sometimes there is a lot of air in those numbers
   8. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: October 18, 2011 at 07:04 PM (#3967484)
Cool - that's what I figured, just thought I'd ask (I've only looked at some IL guys in trad. pitchers parks thus far - haven't peeked at the pitcher file yet).
   9. monkhenry Posted: October 27, 2011 at 11:10 AM (#3976730)
Dan:

Like Vlad above, can you email me the csv files ?

thanks
   10. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 27, 2011 at 05:29 PM (#3976995)
Can you e-mail me from the e-mail for which you'd like to receive it? (DSzymborski@gmail.com)

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