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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Sunday, November 14, 2010

2011 ZIPS Projections - Arizona Diamondbacks

Usually, fans of about 25 of the 30 teams in baseball are convinced that their bullpen is horrible and the main thing preventing their team from being among the best in baseball.  You see stuff like people pointing at 20 blown saves and thinking that they would magically turn into wins if only they had an awesome closer and an extra setup guy, ignoring the fact those 20 blown saves generally consist of 8 games the team won anyway, 4 games with more than 1 blown save, a couple games that they came back to tie before losing, and that the awesome closer would blow a few of those games anyway.

In the case of Arizona fans, while they’re not a reliever or two away from winning the NL West, the bullpen really was a mess of historic proportions.  The Diamondbacks finished 15th in the NL in ERA and had an ERA+ for 89, but in an usual situation, the bullpen is mainly responsible for the rankings being that low, putting up a 5.74 ERA compared to the 4.40 ERA of the starters.  The good news?  There’s a bit of bad luck there.  No, the relievers aren’t very good, but you’d almost have to intentionally play bad pitchers to allow that many runs in relief and even then, relief ERAs are so volatile that you’ll still luck into 2 or 3 guys having good seasons.

In an awful season, a few things did go right.  Dan Hudson went 7-1, 1.69 ERA in 11 starts for Arizona, providing ZiPS ample reasons to continue its yearly Hudson fetish.  Ian Kennedy stopped floating curves and started being able to strike out major leaguers consistently despite an unimpressive fastball.  Jerry DiPoto wasn’t able to get the “interim” in “interim GM” taken off his employment file.

Without knowing what Arizona does this offseason, I’d still put them below .500, but they should at least get the win total back into the 70s.

Next up:  Cleveland

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age    BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Justin Upton      R    RF  23   .292 .369 .505 158 590  96 172  36   6  26  99  73 161  21   8  125
Kelly Johnson     L    2B  29   .275 .350 .478 143 513  81 141  35   6  19  65  59 109  11   6  113
Adam LaRoche      L    1B  31   .262 .332 .470 142 523  72 137  36   2  23  89  55 147   1   1  106
Stephen Drew      L    SS  28   .272 .333 .448 151 581  83 158  35  11  15  69  54 105   8   3  101
Mark Reynolds     R    3B  27   .227 .324 .472 152 538  90 122  24   3  34  97  74 214  13   5  104
Chris B. Young    R    CF  27   .246 .329 .446 155 561  87 138  34   3  24  80  69 153  19   6   99
Miguel Montero    L    C   27   .267 .332 .439 103 330  44  88  22   1  11  47  31  69   0   1   99
Brandon Allen     L    1B  25   .246 .331 .442 149 545  76 134  30   4  23  85  64 154  10   4   99
Gerardo Parra     L    LF  24   .282 .331 .407 160 535  64 151  28   9   7  57  38  98  11   7   91
Cole Gillespie    R    CF  27   .251 .328 .405 127 439  59 110  26   6  10  58  48 104  11   4   90
Jeff Bailey       R    1B  32   .251 .332 .402 114 423  58 106  23   4  11  49  43  97   3   1   90
Tony Abreu        B    SS  26   .281 .307 .417 115 374  44 105  25   4   6  42  13  71   4   2   86
John Hester       R    C   27   .259 .303 .432  94 317  43  82  23   4   8  45  19  79   5   3   89
Paul Goldschmidt  R    1B  23   .246 .306 .428 160 626  78 154  39   3  23  84  51 219   4   1   89
Ollie Linton      L    LF  25   .282 .362 .361 144 518  68 146  19   8   2  45  55 142  20  15   89
Collin Cowgill    R    RF  25   .250 .318 .405 111 440  63 110  25   5  11  61  39  96  14   6   87
Ryan Wheeler      L    3B  22   .269 .323 .390 134 543  63 146  31   4   9  62  37 114   4   4   85
Rusty Ryal        R    LF  28   .267 .312 .409 123 374  44 100  20   3   9  37  18  98   2   4   86
Doug Deeds        L    RF  30   .259 .315 .405 117 417  54 108  29   4   8  37  32 116   5   5   86
Ryan Roberts      R    2B  30   .248 .321 .385 124 408  52 101  23   3   9  47  44  87  11   4   83
Ryan Church       L    RF  32   .247 .311 .395 108 304  40  75  22   1   7  39  26  72   3   1   82
Konrad Schmidt    R    C   26   .265 .309 .378 113 426  40 113  26   2   6  47  22  89   3   3   78
Marc Krauss       L    LF  23   .249 .306 .388 159 626  88 156  28   4  17  72  50 192   1   3   79
Carlos Corporan   B    C   27   .242 .290 .394  81 269  23  65  17   3   6  35  14  63   2   2   76
Drew Macias       L    CF  28   .230 .320 .353 126 391  54  90  19   4   7  37  47  80   8   6   75
Mark Hallberg     R    2B  25   .257 .317 .333 124 436  51 112  23   2   2  43  36  53   8   4   70
Bobby Crosby      R    SS  31   .240 .300 .360  96 292  34  70  18   1   5  31  25  54   3   3   71
Chris Rahl        R    RF  27   .251 .289 .365 124 414  56 104  21   4   6  39  20 114  13   9   69
Sean Coughlin     L    C   26   .217 .297 .359  91 309  33  67  15   1   9  41  34  73   0   1   70
Kory Casto        L    3B  29   .234 .300 .351  89 308  34  72  13   1   7  37  29  76   2   3   69
Matthew Davidson  R    3B  20   .226 .292 .360 142 536  54 121  32   2  12  72  41 172   0   3   69
Eddie Rogers      R    3B  32   .251 .295 .338 102 370  44  93  17   3   3  39  19  64  10   6   64
Cyle Hankerd      R    1B  26   .241 .300 .338 121 394  36  95  21   1   5  49  24  73   1   4   66
Augie Ojeda       B    2B  36   .218 .299 .273  78 165  19  36   7   1   0  12  16  18   1   1   51

Defensive Projections

Player             CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Justin Upton                                                               VG/215
Kelly Johnson                      AV/109
Adam LaRoche               AV/91
Stephen Drew                                       AV/79
Mark Reynolds              AV/133          AV/133
Chris B. Young                                                     AV/105
Miguel Montero     AV
Brandon Allen              AV/128                          AV/150
Gerardo Parra                                              VG/137  FR/250  AV/167
Cole Gillespie                                             VG/122  PO/84   VG/138
Jeff Bailey                AV/127                          FR/136          FR/122
Tony Abreu                         AV/137  VG/105  FR/143
John Hester        FR
Paul Goldschmidt           FR/155
Ollie Linton                                               AV/57   FR/81   AV/124
Collin Cowgill                                             AV/105  FR/149  FR/133
Ryan Wheeler               AV/135          FR/108          FR/113
Rusty Ryal                 AV/157  FR/101  FR/128  FR/119  AV/132
Doug Deeds                 AV/127                          AV/122  AV/149  AV/98
Ryan Roberts               AV/173  AV/116  AV/142  FR/121  AV/145
Ryan Church                                                AV/105  PO/99   AV/61
Konrad Schmidt     AV      AV/143
Marc Krauss                FR/136                          FR/174          FR/174
Carlos Corporan    AV
Drew Macias                                                VG/108  AV/152  VG/110
Mark Hallberg                      AV/70   VG/99   AV/117
Bobby Crosby               AV/91   AV/115  AV/121  AV/120
Chris Rahl                                                 VG/100  AV/90   VG/93
Sean Coughlin      FR      AV/182
Kory Casto                 AV/134  PO/112  FR/116          FR/122          FR/122
Matthew Davidson                           AV/145
Eddie Rogers               VG/146  AV/115  FR/105  FR/93
Cyle Hankerd               FR/151                          PO/132          PO/132
Augie Ojeda                        VG/68   VG/116  AV/114
	
Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Brandon Webb      R     32    3.56     8    4   14   14   93.7   90   37    7   29   74  124
Daniel Hudson     R     24    3.56    15    9   32   30  172.0  154   68   17   58  151  124
Ian Kennedy       R     24    3.90     8    5   23   22  129.3  116   56   15   50  109  113
Joe Saunders      L     30    4.55    12   12   31   31  193.7  205   98   26   62  110   96
LEAGUE AVERAGE——————————————————————————————————————-
Bryan Augenstein  R     24    4.86     7    8   26   21  122.3  143   66   12   35   81   91
Barry Enright     R     25    5.05     8   10   29   29  165.7  190   93   26   48   95   87
Joshua Collmenter R     25    5.06     9   11   27   27  142.3  153   80   17   72  100   87
Mike Hampton      L     39    5.08     7    9   20   20  106.3  117   60   13   45   69   87
Cesar Valdez      R     26    5.29     7   11   26   21  119.0  137   70   15   52   79   83
Kevin Mulvey      R     26    5.35     6    9   30   28  156.3  179   93   20   70   92   82
Rodrigo Lopez     R     35    5.36     6    9   22   21  124.3  148   74   20   35   69   82
Ryan Cook         R     24    5.41     7   10   26   26  129.7  156   78   11   65   73   81
Jarrod Parker     R     26    5.51     4    7   17   17   78.3   93   48   10   39   54   80
Wade Miley        L     24    5.53     7   10   27   27  136.7  164   84   13   74   75   79
Wes Roemer        R     24    5.72     6   10   26   24  140.0  165   89   22   62   85   77
Matt Torra        R     27    5.73     8   13   29   29  174.3  229  111   27   42   82   77
Tom Layne         L     26    5.76     5    9   32   19  115.7  141   74   11   70   56   76
Kris Benson       R     36    6.51     2    5   13   11   56.7   75   41   10   24   28   67

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
D. J. Carrasco    R     34    3.93     3    2   51    1   75.7   73   33    6   28   58  112
Clay Zavada       L     27    4.04     3    2   44    0   49.0   45   22    6   24   46  109
LEAGUE AVERAGE——————————————————————————————————————-
Juan Gutierrez    R     27    4.25     4    3   64    0   65.7   63   31    8   27   58  103
Blaine Boyer      R     29    4.31     3    3   59    0   62.7   64   30    5   26   44  102
Brian Sweeney     R     37    4.37     3    3   46    0   59.7   60   29    7   23   38  100
Aaron Heilman     R     32    4.40     6    5   72    0   73.7   72   36    9   33   65  100
Josh Ellis        R     26    4.40     3    3   41    0   59.3   64   29    4   26   47  100
Leo Rosales       R     23    4.47     2    2   38    0   44.3   45   22    5   20   31   98
Esmerling Vasquez R     27    4.71     3    3   58    0   57.3   53   30    6   39   52   93
Jason Urquidez    R     28    4.83     4    4   50    0   69.0   75   37    7   30   51   91
Sam Demel         R     25    4.84     3    3   57    0   61.3   65   33    6   32   48   91
Carlos Rosa       R     26    4.91     3    4   51    0   66.0   67   36    7   37   53   90
Zach Kroenke      L     27    4.92     4    5   42    5   78.7   82   43    9   42   50   89
Daniel Stange     R     25    4.93     4    4   44    0   49.3   53   27    5   23   30   89
Jordan Norberto   L     24    5.01     3    3   52    0   55.7   54   31    6   41   53   88
Rafael Rodriguez  R     26    5.10     3    4   50    0   67.0   74   38   10   27   35   86
Roque Mercedes    R     24    5.20     2    3   42    0   55.3   62   32    6   30   39   84
Jose Marte        R     27    5.24     3    4   49    0   67.0   72   39    9   37   49   84
Kyler Newby       R     26    5.25     3    4   40    6   73.7   78   43   12   38   60   84
Kasey Olenberger  R     33    5.48     3    4   46    4   67.3   76   41   10   31   44   80
T.J. Beam         R     30    5.58     3    5   48    4   79.0   90   49   10   45   49   79
Leyson Septimo    L     25    6.35     1    3   41    0   45.3   45   32    5   54   42   69

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Justin Upton        .280  .364  .474  2848 10536  1631  2950   620    85   419  1605  1380  2728   322   116
Stephen Drew        .267  .326  .437  1974  7605  1016  2031   443   136   192   856   669  1225    77    96
Mark Reynolds       .232  .325  .459  1887  6699  1067  1554   311    32   381  1133   881  2359   136   101
Kelly Johnson       .266  .341  .449  1796  6410   963  1705   391    74   212   770   720  1251   107   105
Chris B. Young      .242  .324  .428  1266  4604   676  1113   279    23   177   616   556  1100   117    94
Gerardo Parra       .277  .327  .403  1380  4568   535  1266   249    74    59   495   333   859    75    89
Bobby Crosby        .237  .302  .368   966  3226   404   763   188    10    72   346   296   632    41    77

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO    ERA+
Joe Saunders       123  109    0    4.57  303  303     1849 1972  939  251  612 1051     97

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Justin Upton      RF    41%  30%  15%  10%   4%    Danny Tartabull         B.J. Upton      Sixto Lezcano
Kelly Johnson     2B    50%  19%  14%  11%   5%     Robby Thompson        Chase Utley         Dick Green
Adam LaRoche      1B     5%  16%  19%  32%  27%      Brian Daubach        Lee Stevens      Danny Goodwin
Stephen Drew      SS    33%  27%  24%  13%   4%      Mike Fontenot     Orlando Hudson           Jay Bell
Mark Reynolds     3B    12%  26%  26%  21%  15%        Nick Esasky    Russell Branyan        Dean Palmer
Chris B. Young    CF    18%  22%  30%  20%   9%        Ernie Young       Mike Fuentes       Jon Nunnally
Miguel Montero    C     18%  32%  22%  19%   9%    Eddie Taubensee      Jerry Willard        Brad Gulden
Brandon Allen     1B     2%  11%  15%  32%  39%      George Canale          John Jaha        Mike Hocutt
Gerardo Parra     LF     1%   5%   8%  19%  67%        Alexis Rios       Bruce Fields      Shin-Soo Choo
Cole Gillespie    CF     4%  10%  25%  32%  28%        Ricky Ledee      Brian Simmons           Ted Wood
Jeff Bailey       1B     1%   3%   5%  23%  67%        Pedro Swann       Brian Lesher      David McCarty
Tony Abreu        SS     7%  15%  31%  29%  19%         Pat Meares         Manuel Lee       Omar Infante
John Hester       C      7%  19%  23%  28%  23%    Justin Knoedler       Miguel Olivo        Jason LaRue
Paul Goldschmidt  1B     0%   4%   9%  24%  63%       Eddie Vargas    Angelo Logrande       Brandon Moss
Ollie Linton      LF     0%   2%   4%  12%  81%         Jeff Stone      Shin-Soo Choo     Kevin Rhomberg
Collin Cowgill    RF     0%   4%   7%  16%  73%       Garey Ingram   Bronson Sardinha      Brian Simmons
Ryan Wheeler      3B     2%   4%   9%  19%  66%          Joe Crede  Aurelio Rodriguez       Scott Cooper
Rusty Ryal        LF     0%   1%   3%  10%  86%       Scott Jaster          Rod Allen      Charlie James
Doug Deeds        RF     0%   2%   5%  13%  80%       Brian Lesher       Pat Sheridan       Alexis Gomez
Ryan Roberts      2B     6%   8%  13%  25%  49%      Mike Moriarty      Jason Maxwell     Andrew Beattie
Ryan Church       RF     0%   2%   3%   9%  85%        Greg Litton          Jon Weber        Jim Vatcher
Konrad Schmidt    C      1%   5%  13%  34%  48%       Geronimo Gil       Matt Walbeck          Tom Nieto
Marc Krauss       LF     0%   2%   4%   8%  86%        Dale Holman     Mauricio Ching         Wil Culmer
Carlos Corporan   C      1%   5%   9%  25%  60%       Chad Moeller        Mel Rosario      Eli Whiteside
Drew Macias       CF     1%   1%   5%  14%  79%     Nathan Panther      Tyrone Boykin       Phil Dauphin
Mark Hallberg     2B     0%   1%   2%   8%  89%     Ramon Martinez          Jay Pecci       Billy Ripken
Bobby Crosby      SS     1%   2%   7%  18%  72%     Jorge Velandia    Kevin Polcovich           Stu Cole
Chris Rahl        RF     0%   0%   0%   1%  98%   Darrell Nicholas       Tommy Murphy    Cesar Hernandez
Sean Coughlin     C      1%   3%   5%  15%  76%    Scott Hatteberg   Alberto Castillo     Jeff Ontiveros
Kory Casto        3B     0%   0%   1%   3%  95%     Adam Morrissey         Dave Baker     John Hotchkiss
Matthew Davidson  3B     0%   2%   3%   6%  89%        Tom Quinlan         Stan Royer       Billy Rowell
Eddie Rogers      3B     0%   1%   1%   3%  95%         Chico Ruiz        Eddie Zosky        Casey Smith
Cyle Hankerd      1B     0%   0%   0%   0% 100%       Dave Turgeon      Tyler Eastley           Mark Ori
Augie Ojeda       2B     0%   0%   0%   1%  98%      Rene Gonzales     Craig Counsell        Dal Maxvill

Player            PO     TOP   MID   BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Brandon Webb      SP     70%   23%    7%      Rick Reuschel     Orel Hershiser        Rick Rhoden
Daniel Hudson     SP     75%   19%    7%    Jamie Vermilyea         Andy Benes         David Nied
Ian Kennedy       SP     56%   37%    7%        Wade Miller        Brett Tomko     Ramon Martinez
D. J. Carrasco    RP     31%   54%   15%     Rollie Fingers    Andy McGaffigan    Anthony Telford
Clay Zavada       RP     29%   47%   24%    Armando Almanza   Dick Littlefield     Paul Spoljaric
Juan Gutierrez    RP     16%   53%   31%      Justin Speier       Curt Kaufman        Chuck Ricci
Blaine Boyer      RP     18%   53%   28%         Sean Green         Tony Fiore      John Riedling
Brian Sweeney     RP     20%   41%   39%        Mike Maddux         Rick White      Pete Appleton
Aaron Heilman     RP     12%   53%   35%        Greg Harris      Scott Cassidy    Ricky Bottalico
Josh Ellis        RP     16%   48%   36%        Blaine Neal      Jay Robertson      Gerry Hannahs
Leo Rosales       RP     15%   39%   45%     Keith Shepherd    Pedro Feliciano       Jose Ascanio
Joe Saunders      SP     18%   60%   22%       Carlos Perez        Mike Maroth        Kirk Rueter
Esmerling Vasquez RP     10%   43%   48%       Bart Miadich       Calvin Jones         Jack Meyer
Jason Urquidez    RP      7%   40%   53%     LaTroy Hawkins          Tom Davey Heathcliff Slocumb
Sam Demel         RP      7%   37%   56%     Anthony Chavez         Alan Mills       Joe Jacobsen
Bryan Augenstein  SP     11%   56%   33%          John Hope     Ramiro Mendoza         Chris Holt
Carlos Rosa       RP      4%   36%   60%   Santiago Ramirez         Mike Shade         Bob Gibson
Zach Kroenke      RP      3%   36%   61%          Brad Weis    Philip Barzilla     Rich Rodriguez
Daniel Stange     RP      7%   36%   57%          Jim Mecir          Don Smith       Tim Crabtree
Jordan Norberto   RP      5%   33%   62%      Tyler Johnson    Jackie Davidson      Darren Oliver
Barry Enright     SP      4%   49%   48%      Brian Meadows        Bob Wolcott      Bob Tewksbury
Joshua Collmenter SP      5%   48%   48%        J.D. Durbin     Denny Bautista         Jim Dorsey
Mike Hampton      SP      7%   37%   57%      Mark Langston       Frank Tanana     Earl Whitehill
Rafael Rodriguez  RP      3%   27%   70%       Glenn Dooner      Dennis Tafoya     Randy McCament
Roque Mercedes    RP      3%   26%   71%           Ray Soff        Rick Greene         Dave Smith
Jose Marte        RP      2%   22%   77%        Paul Wilmet     John Trautwein      Kevin Cameron
Kyler Newby       RP      1%   19%   81%       Jeromy Palki        Matt Turner          Mike Cook
Cesar Valdez      SP      3%   34%   63%        Steve Kelly      Matt Achilles        John Snyder
Kevin Mulvey      SP      1%   30%   69%    Mickey Callaway      Matt Achilles        Steve Kelly
Rodrigo Lopez     SP      5%   27%   68%         Tim Kester    Bill Gullickson       Kevin Jarvis
Ryan Cook         SP      3%   34%   64%           Ed Wojna        Jake Joseph         Kevin Ritz
Kasey Olenberger  RP      4%   18%   78%     Vladimir Nunez     Jason Childers      Mike Sullivan
Jarrod Parker     SP      2%   26%   71%       Jaret Wright  Jason Middlebrook          Sean Lowe
Wade Miley        SP      1%   21%   79%     Derek Thompson         Matt Smith       Jake Chapman
T.J. Beam         RP      1%   11%   88%        Steve Green      Marty McLeary   Jarod Juelsgaard
Wes Roemer        SP      0%   14%   86%        Brian Reith        Clint Weibl       David Pauley
Matt Torra        SP      1%   13%   86%        Josh Towers       Heath Totten          Bill King
Tom Layne         SP      1%   15%   84%        Matt Coenen          Ben Fritz   Lance Caraccioli
Leyson Septimo    RP      0%    6%   94%     Robbie Beckett      Tyler Johnson   Curt Heidenreich
Kris Benson       SP      1%    8%   91%       Kevin Jarvis         Aaron Sele    Dennis Springer

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Justin Upton            37%      41%      50%      15%      15%      32%      23%      15%
Kelly Johnson           15%      19%      28%      11%      14%       7%       7%       3%
Adam LaRoche             7%       6%      26%      13%       2%      16%       4%       0%
Stephen Drew            12%       7%      13%      13%      60%       3%       2%       0%
Mark Reynolds            0%       3%      24%       0%       1%      70%       3%       4%
Chris B. Young           1%       4%      11%       8%       2%      20%       1%      10%
Miguel Montero          12%       9%      11%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Brandon Allen            1%       5%      10%       3%       4%      16%       1%       1%
Gerardo Parra           23%       4%       1%       2%      44%       0%       0%       1%
Cole Gillespie           2%       3%       2%       0%      14%       0%       0%       0%
Jeff Bailey              3%       6%       2%       0%       2%       0%       1%       0%
Tony Abreu              23%       1%       4%       0%       4%       0%       1%       0%
John Hester              7%       1%       8%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Paul Goldschmidt         1%       0%       7%      24%       1%      19%       0%       0%
Ollie Linton            21%      29%       0%       0%      26%       0%       0%       6%
Collin Cowgill           2%       1%       2%       0%       6%       0%       0%       1%
Ryan Wheeler            10%       3%       3%       6%       7%       1%       1%       0%
Rusty Ryal               9%       1%       2%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Doug Deeds               5%       2%       1%       1%       4%       0%       0%       0%
Ryan Roberts             2%       3%       1%       0%       2%       0%       0%       2%
Ryan Church              2%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Konrad Schmidt           8%       1%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Marc Krauss              1%       1%       2%       3%       6%       6%       0%       0%
Carlos Corporan          2%       0%       2%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Drew Macias              0%       2%       1%       0%       3%       0%       0%       0%
Mark Hallberg            3%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Bobby Crosby             2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Chris Rahl               2%       0%       1%       0%       4%       0%       0%       1%
Sean Coughlin            0%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Kory Casto               1%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Matthew Davidson         0%       0%       2%       8%       1%       2%       0%       0%
Eddie Rogers             3%       0%       1%       0%       2%       0%       0%       1%
Cyle Hankerd             1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Augie Ojeda              2%       3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Brandon Webb              43%        92%        16%        10%        89%
Daniel Hudson             37%        95%        41%         1%        68%
Ian Kennedy               20%        82%        29%         0%        46%
D. J. Carrasco            25%        81%        10%         2%        84%
Clay Zavada               22%        70%        57%         0%        52%
Juan Gutierrez            12%        63%        46%         1%        42%
Blaine Boyer              14%        58%         3%         1%        87%
Brian Sweeney             15%        54%         3%         4%        59%
Aaron Heilman              8%        58%        41%         0%        51%
Josh Ellis                12%        57%        16%         0%        92%
Leo Rosales               10%        46%         6%         1%        63%
Joe Saunders               2%        42%         1%         4%        35%
Esmerling Vasquez          7%        45%        50%         0%        58%
Jason Urquidez             5%        40%         6%         0%        71%
Sam Demel                  5%        37%        14%         0%        69%
Bryan Augenstein           1%        31%         2%        12%        72%
Carlos Rosa                3%        33%        16%         0%        54%
Zach Kroenke               2%        27%         1%         0%        65%
Daniel Stange              5%        35%         1%         0%        54%
Jordan Norberto            5%        31%        60%         0%        60%
Barry Enright              0%        16%         0%         7%        11%
Joshua Collmenter          0%        18%         2%         0%        48%
Mike Hampton               1%        18%         5%         1%        52%
Rafael Rodriguez           2%        24%         0%         2%        28%
Roque Mercedes             2%        22%         5%         0%        61%
Jose Marte                 1%        14%         5%         0%        35%
Kyler Newby                1%        15%        19%         0%        18%
Cesar Valdez               0%        10%         0%         0%        36%
Kevin Mulvey               0%         6%         0%         0%        32%
Rodrigo Lopez              1%        11%         0%        20%        17%
Ryan Cook                  0%        10%         0%         0%        87%
Kasey Olenberger           3%        19%         4%         0%        33%
Jarrod Parker              0%         9%         2%         0%        50%
Wade Miley                 0%         5%         0%         0%        74%
T.J. Beam                  1%         7%         2%         0%        46%
Wes Roemer                 0%         2%         0%         0%        14%
Matt Torra                 1%         2%         0%        41%        10%
Tom Layne                  0%         3%         0%         0%        81%
Leyson Septimo             0%         4%        59%         0%        59%
Kris Benson                0%         3%         0%         2%        20%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 14, 2010 at 06:31 PM | 27 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Walt Davis Posted: November 14, 2010 at 07:01 PM (#3689779)
Whoa! League average starting pitcher is now about a 90 ERA+? Doesn't seem possible. Where does that put replacement level, around 80? Or is the line supposed to be above Augenstein?
   2. cgbb Posted: November 14, 2010 at 07:01 PM (#3689780)
Justin Upton's fielding percentage improves, yet Zips has it decline?

2010 - RF > Vg/197
2011 - RF > Vg/215
   3. JJ1986 Posted: November 14, 2010 at 07:06 PM (#3689783)
Aren't almost all outfielder errors on throws? Fielding percentage has nothing to do with his range.
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 14, 2010 at 07:41 PM (#3689794)
Whoa! League average starting pitcher is now about a 90 ERA+? Doesn't seem possible. Where does that put replacement level, around 80? Or is the line supposed to be above Augenstein?

96 - put line in wrong place.
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 14, 2010 at 07:42 PM (#3689795)
Justin Upton's fielding percentage improves, yet Zips has it decline?


I've been regressing fielding percentage too much in the past.
   6. Travolta19 Posted: November 15, 2010 at 01:58 AM (#3689895)
Can I get a quick explanation on ERA+ and OPS+, from anyone? I've noticed what I perceive as weird things going on. For instance...

Michael Taylor .256/.319/.395/.714...but OPS+ is 92
Collin Gowgill .250/.318/.405/.723...but OPS+ is only 87

In my mind, Cowgill's OPS+ should be roughly the same (or slightly higher) than Taylor's? I feel like I'm not understanding something fundamental, as the answer eludes me...thanks
   7. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 15, 2010 at 02:04 AM (#3689896)
ERA+ and OPS+ are compared to league-average in the park. Taylor's OPS+ is higher because Oakland is a worse environment to hit in than Arizona.
   8. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: November 15, 2010 at 02:34 AM (#3689901)
I love it: Upton projects to shatter Reggie's (or Thome's) career strikeout record, with Reynolds lasting long enough to make it into the top-3 and threaten -- in 1,000 fewer games than Upton!

And of course this is assuming that Dunn doesn't put it out of everyone's reach.
   9. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 15, 2010 at 03:26 AM (#3689915)
I suspect the K record is going to drop a few times the next 15 years. Upton's already almost 20% of the way there and he just turned 23.
   10. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: November 15, 2010 at 03:53 AM (#3689919)
as i am fond of pointing out every year:

if bobby crosby reaches that slash line (.240/.300/.360), those will be his best marks in those respective categories since 2005.
   11. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: November 15, 2010 at 05:06 AM (#3689947)
Stephen Drew is already 28?! Man I'm getting old.
   12. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 15, 2010 at 05:06 AM (#3689948)
I was always a Carlos Rosa fan. I'll be pissed if the Royals traded away Bob Gibson for a no-hit minor league shortstop.
   13. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: November 15, 2010 at 05:33 AM (#3689955)
I try not to make vapid statements like this, but I really can't imagine someone named "Paul Goldschmidt" becoming a viable major-league baseball, football or basketball player.

Edit: evidence
   14. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 15, 2010 at 05:36 AM (#3689957)
I was always a Carlos Rosa fan. I'll be pissed if the Royals traded away Bob Gibson for a no-hit minor league shortstop.

Sadly, his comparable is this Bob Gibson.

I try not to make vapid statements like this, but I really can't imagine someone named "Paul Goldschmidt" becoming a viable major-league baseball, football or basketball player.

I should remind you at this point that there's actually a successful baseball player named Coco Crisp.
   15. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: November 15, 2010 at 06:29 AM (#3689991)
At least Coco Crisp is a wacky name, fitting in with such stars as Plaxico Burress and Flozell Adams. And it's alliterative, like Brian Boehringer, Bryan Bullington, Brian Bohanon, Brian Burres, Brian Bruney, Brian Buchanan, Brian Bocock, Brian Bixler, Brian Barton, David Doster, David Dellucci, Dave Dravecky, Rick Reuschel, Rick Rhoden, and Jay Johnstone. "Paul Goldschmidt" is up there with "Julian Edelman" and "Gene Stechschulte".
   16. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 15, 2010 at 06:37 AM (#3689997)
Eric Stuckenschneider - IIRC, on his jersey his name ran down the back of both sleeves.
   17. James Darnell's #1 Fan Posted: November 15, 2010 at 08:36 PM (#3690310)
It's a little amusing to see that Justin's #2 COMP player is B.J.
   18. cooper7d7 Posted: November 17, 2010 at 10:36 PM (#3692299)
Jarrod Parker is 26!
   19. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: November 17, 2010 at 11:00 PM (#3692340)
There's a scene in Major League where a fan is reading off the Opening Day Roster, "Ricky Vaughn, Willie Hayes, I've never heard of most of these guys. Mitchell Friedman?"
   20. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: November 17, 2010 at 11:02 PM (#3692344)
Sadly, his comparable is this Bob Gibson.

In one of the abstracts Bill James laments that particular Bob Gibson being allowed to use the Bob Gibson name.
   21. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: November 17, 2010 at 11:16 PM (#3692362)
What happened to Stuckenschneider after OAK drafted him?
   22. thetailor Posted: November 17, 2010 at 11:16 PM (#3692363)
I love it: Upton projects to shatter Reggie's (or Thome's) career strikeout record, with Reynolds lasting long enough to make it into the top-3 and threaten -- in 1,000 fewer games than Upton!

Also interesting is that although Upton projects to a 125 OPS+ this season -- and is still far from reaching his peak as a ballplayer -- his projected career OPS+ is only 116. Does ZiPS project a long and depressing tail end of his career? Dan?
   23. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: November 17, 2010 at 11:32 PM (#3692378)
What happened to Stuckenschneider after OAK drafted him?

He apparently tore his rotator cuff that offseason and when he finally returned in the middle of the year he was terrible and they gave up. I'm guessing the injury was worse than anybody thought.

Stuckenschneider
   24. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 18, 2010 at 12:00 AM (#3692415)
Does ZiPS project a long and depressing tail end of his career? Dan?

It's an uncertainty thing. If Upton simply repeats 2010 over-and-over again without improving a bit, the long-term projections improve because he'll have good performance in the bag .

Let me put it another way. Tim Lincecum is a much, much better pitcher than Livan Hernandez. However, Livan Hernandez is much more likely to win 180 games or to pitch 200 innings at age 37 than Lincecum is.
   25. Unintentionally_Ignorant Posted: November 18, 2010 at 02:35 AM (#3692528)
<Insert obligatory comment regarding one of Justin Upton's comps being B.J. Upton>
   26. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 19, 2010 at 05:41 PM (#3693678)
Let me put it another way. Tim Lincecum is a much, much better pitcher than Livan Hernandez. However, Livan Hernandez is much more likely to win 180 games or to pitch 200 innings at age 37 than Lincecum is.


I'm still baffled how Livan pulled 2010 out of his butt

2008-09: 363 IP at 74 ERA+, negative WAR, less than 5k/9, I mean seriously, what was he still doing in the MLB in 2010...

How did he do it?
1: Lowest HR/9 of his career
2: BABIP was 12 points lower than his career (not a huge difference- but MUCH better than recent years- but it was actually all April) -look at his splits- 1st half BABIP of .280, second half .311 (his career average is .310)- his second half k/bb was actually his best in years...

Random speculation- his 2010 was analogous to Lima's 2004- 2011 is gonna look like Lima's 2005...
   27. MrMet33 Posted: December 09, 2010 at 10:00 PM (#3707123)
It's a minor omission, but can we get a Juan Miranda projection. I'm not sure if he'll show up on the Yankees projections or not.

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