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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, December 06, 2010

2011 ZiPS Projections - Baltimore Orioles

Some teams have bad luck, but curiously enough, I think one of the problems that the Baltimore Orioles is a bad case of neutral luck.

Generally, when teams have a lot of young players coming up through the system, you hope to find out as much information about them as you can.  Players that take steps forward and exceed average expectations in development are moved up the ladder while players that regress are given less priority in development.

The Orioles, however, had this kind of weird stasis going on in which everybody, like the eventual heat death of the universe, just kinda hung around in limbo.  From the big prospects to the lesser guys, normalcy was the rule.  Brian Matusz had a nice second half, but we’re still not sure if he’s going to be a star or good.  The lack of upside surprises with pitching was generally a rule - the Orioles have a ton of guys that just didn’t provide any new information (they’ve sorted them out by trading a few of these players, David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio, to the Diamondbacks for Mark Reynolds - their Arizona projections are forthcoming).

Sadly, the Orioles are probably the last-place team again in 2011, but that doesn’t mean the organization has fallen off the correct path.  The Oh-Ooohs (you have to be a Baltimoron to get this pronounciation right) had a lot of mess from the Angelos-inspired water-treading of the Thrift and Beatagain eras.

Next up:  Colorado

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age    BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Nick Markakis     L    RF  27   .288 .363 .447 156 611  91 176  42   2  17  82  72 103  10   4  116
Luke Scott        L    DH  33   .259 .345 .479 124 413  60 107  24   2  21  65  53  95   2   1  118
Brian Roberts     B    2B  33   .272 .350 .417 113 448  72 122  32   3   9  42  54  80  25   5  105
Adam Jones        R    CF  25   .281 .329 .449 156 595  90 167  28   6  20  81  33 123  10   6  106
Mark Reynolds     R    3B  27   .222 .321 .469 152 537  87 119  21   2  36  94  75 226  13   5  108
Nolan Reimold     R    LF  27   .255 .333 .420 130 467  64 119  21   1  18  61  51  99   8   2  100
Matt Wieters      B    C   25   .271 .339 .412 152 536  61 145  24   2  16  76  57 117   1   1  100
Jake Fox          R    C   28   .250 .316 .447  97 304  41  76  17   2  13  49  23  72   2   1  101
Ty Wigginton      R    1B  33   .259 .318 .427 130 471  55 122  23   1  18  60  36  85   1   3   97
Felix Pie         L    LF  26   .265 .311 .415 121 378  54 100  17   5  10  45  25  78   8   4   93
Ryan Adams        R    2B  24   .269 .317 .380 131 521  63 140  29   1   9  55  31 129   4   5   86
Brandon Snyder    R    1B  24   .256 .306 .389 139 496  55 127  29   2  11  68  32 131   3   2   85
Jeff Salazar      L    LF  30   .235 .301 .379 114 375  51  88  12   3  12  46  35  79  13   2   81
Garrett Atkins    R    1B  31   .248 .307 .373 100 343  36  85  14   1   9  42  30  66   1   0   81
Josh Bell         B    3B  24   .245 .295 .410 134 485  57 119  27   1  17  56  34 133   3   6   87
Joseph Mahoney    L    1B  24   .250 .293 .366 133 508  58 127  23   3  10  64  28 134  15   4   75
Corey Patterson   L    LF  31   .248 .287 .379 120 391  50  97  20   2   9  40  20  88  19   8   76
Matt Angle        L    CF  25   .264 .324 .315 135 550  79 145  14   4   2  36  47  93  32  10   72
Robert Andino     R    SS  27   .243 .282 .375 124 453  56 110  21   3  11  46  24 105  10   5   74
Xavier Avery      L    CF  21   .255 .302 .345 156 623  77 159  26   6   6  55  37 164  34  18   73
Michel Hernandez  R    C   32   .249 .300 .335  60 197  22  49   6   1   3  20  14  27   1   1   70
Brandon Waring    R    3B  25   .215 .282 .363 148 562  62 121  27   1  18  69  44 224   2   2   71
Caleb Joseph      R    C   25   .242 .282 .356 111 413  42 100  18   1   9  49  21  86   2   4   70
Julio Lugo        R    2B  35   .243 .304 .312  91 276  30  67   9   2   2  24  23  51   9   4   65
Paco Figueroa     R    2B  28   .252 .299 .328  87 317  36  80  14   2   2  24  20  56   8   6   68
Cesar Izturis     B    SS  31   .252 .298 .299 133 421  42 106  13   2   1  27  23  40  14   5   61
Craig Tatum       R    C   28   .224 .276 .319  78 254  23  57  10   1   4  30  18  66   1   1   59
Pedro Florimon    B    SS  24   .225 .279 .306 123 444  52 100  18   3   4  44  29 137  15   8   57
Joey Gathright    L    CF  30   .240 .297 .266  98 312  44  75   6   1   0  15  23  49  17   8   53
Adam Donachie     R    C   27   .199 .266 .288  90 292  27  58  11   0   5  28  27  92   0   2   49

Defensive Projections

Player                  CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Nick Markakis                                                                 AV/84
Luke Scott                   AV/142                           FR/59
Brian Roberts                         AV/86
Adam Jones                                                           AV/125
Mark Reynolds                AV/133          AV/133
Nolan Reimold                FR/170                          FR/142          FR/113
Matt Wieters             AV
Jake Fox                 FR
Ty Wigginton                 AV/174  PO/134   PO/96
Felix Pie                                                     VG/72  AV/188
Ryan Adams                           VG/263  VG/122  AV/131
Brandon Snyder               AV/197          FR/120
Jeff Salazar                                                 AV/102  FR/121   AV/72
Garrett Atkins               PO/127           FR/87
Josh Bell                                    AV/139
Joseph Mahoney               FR/137                          FR/125
Corey Patterson                                              VG/159  AV/121  VG/129
Matt Angle                                                            VG/49
Robert Andino                        AV/119  VG/111  AV/145
Xavier Avery                                                 VG/184  VG/320
Michel Hernandez         FR
Brandon Waring               AV/133          FR/127          AV/142
Caleb Joseph             AV
Julio Lugo                            FR/93  PO/155
Paco Figueroa                        AV/103  AV/116  PO/117                  AV/108
Cesar Izturis                                         AV/68
Craig Tatum              VG
Pedro Florimon                                       VG/185
Joey Gathright                                                VG/87  VG/101   VG/87
Adam Donachie                FR/114

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Brian Matusz      L     24    4.38    12   11   32   32  172.7  176   84   20   62  142  100
Jeremy Guthrie    R     32    4.53    12   12   31   31  194.7  202   98   28   53  117   97
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Kevin Millwood    R     36    4.87     9   11   29   29  181.0  203   98   26   57  122   90
Brad Bergesen     R     25    5.09     9   11   28   27  161.0  187   91   23   46   79   86
Jake Arrieta      R     25    5.11     9   11   28   28  149.7  160   85   18   78   99   86
Zachary Britton   L     23    5.16     7   10   28   26  141.3  161   81   14   67   87   85
Rick Vanden Hurk  R     26    5.23     6    8   25   22  117.0  128   68   18   47   87   84
Chris Tillman     R     23    5.28    10   14   31   31  160.3  183   94   24   57  104   83
Chris George      L     31    6.22     3    5   28   11   81.0  103   56   15   30   47   70
Troy Patton       L     25    6.43     5   12   24   24  124.7  156   89   25   49   64   68
Brandon Erbe      R     23    6.62     4    9   19   19   88.3  104   65   20   45   56   66
Chorye Spoone     R     25    7.25     2    6   16   16   72.0   93   58   12   57   36   61
Timothy Bascom    R     26    7.63     4   13   26   26  122.7  181  104   27   52   53   57

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Koji Uehara       R     36    3.44     2    1   36    0   36.7   34   14    4    8   40  128
Jim Johnson       R     28    4.03     3    2   46    0   51.3   53   23    5   17   37  109
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Mike Gonzalez     L     33    4.23     3    3   48    0   44.7   41   21    7   18   50  104
Jason Berken      R     27    4.56     4    4   59    0   71.0   76   36    8   25   51   96
Matt Albers       R     28    4.72     4    4   58    1   74.3   80   39    7   34   51   93
Mark Hendrickson  L     37    4.88     4    5   46    8   94.0  106   51   12   28   61   90
Dennis Sarfate    R     30    4.97     2    3   47    1   54.3   50   30    8   35   56   88
Cla Meredith      R     28    5.16     2    3   60    0   59.3   70   34    7   21   34   85
Luis Lebron       R     26    5.17     3    4   55    0   54.0   47   31    8   46   60   85
Jim Hoey          R     28    5.30     3    4   47    0   52.7   55   31    5   38   45   83
Alfredo Simon     R     30    5.35     2    3   26    3   37.0   41   22    6   14   26   82
Alberto Castillo  L     35    5.40     2    3   54    0   50.0   57   30    7   21   38   81
Josh Rupe         R     28    5.42     3    5   45    4   79.3   95   50   10   42   48   77
Armando Gabino    R     27    5.54     4    6   42    6   87.7  101   54   14   36   52   79
Brandon Cooney    R     25    5.59     3    4   46    0   48.3   55   30    6   29   30   79
Jim Miller        R     29    5.77     2    4   48    0   64.0   75   41   11   27   46   76
Mike Hinckley     L     28    5.78     2    4   43    2   62.3   76   40    7   36   35   76
Pedro Viola       L     28    5.90     3    5   50    7   68.7   84   45    9   37   49   74

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Adam Jones          .270  .318  .427  2373  8923  1277  2409   403    72   284  1144   485  1704   113    97
Nick Markakis       .283  .356  .438  2193  8524  1215  2416   561    35   230  1120   962  1324   117   111
Matt Wieters        .262  .329  .396  2147  7602   795  1991   330    26   212  1021   777  1483    11    93
Brian Roberts       .276  .346  .411  1847  7354  1139  2030   503    49   131   691   801  1117   379   101
Ty Wigginton        .264  .322  .437  1418  5004   601  1321   271    15   189   658   384   924    37    99
Cesar Izturis       .256  .296  .321  1300  4446   460  1136   175    34    16   316   235   435   123    64
Luke Scott          .259  .339  .476  1259  4137   561  1073   248    25   199   621   485   877    17   114
Nolan Reimold       .252  .330  .410   963  3419   449   861   158     9   122   431   377   669    48    97
Felix Pie           .258  .307  .403   928  2714   385   700   124    34    67   318   191   572    50    87

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Jeremy Guthrie      97  108    0    4.49  294  273     1752 1805  873  252  502 1044     99
Kevin Millwood     180  164    0    4.26  485  477     2938 3047 1392  340  921 2221    102

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Nick Markakis     RF    21%  33%  20%  16%  11%   Warren Cromartie       Bruce Bochte       Mike Aldrete
Luke Scott        DH    16%  31%  22%  22%  10%          Dale Long        Matt Stairs          Ivan Cruz
Brian Roberts     2B    49%  19%  15%  12%   6%         Ray Durham         Bill Doran      Tony Phillips
Adam Jones        CF    20%  23%  29%  19%   8%        Marlon Byrd         Adam Riggs   Juan Encarnacion
Mark Reynolds     3B    12%  26%  26%  21%  15%        Nick Esasky    Russell Branyan        Dean Palmer
Nolan Reimold     LF     4%  16%  19%  26%  36%       Monte McAbee         Phil Nevin         Adam Hyzdu
Matt Wieters      C     17%  36%  24%  17%   6%      Ronny Paulino         John Ramos       Mike Stanley
Jake Fox          C     25%  32%  20%  16%   8%       Bobby Hughes       Chris Widger       Nick Hundley
Ty Wigginton      1B     1%   6%   9%  28%  55%       Jose Guillen      Dan Rohrmeier       Glenn Wilson
Felix Pie         LF     2%   6%   9%  19%  64%       Bubba Crosby       Steve Carter      Trent Oeltjen
Ryan Adams        2B     3%   5%  11%  24%  56%         Mark Lewis      Josh Barfield Bill Knickerbocker
Brandon Snyder    1B     0%   1%   3%  17%  79%         Mike Morse Luis de los Santos          Rod Allen
Jeff Salazar      LF     2%   3%   6%  14%  75%       Marc Sagmoen       Phil Dauphin         Chip Glass
Garrett Atkins    1B     0%   1%   2%  11%  86%    Chris Pritchett          John Gall       Butch Huskey
Josh Bell         3B     0%   4%   9%  18%  68%         Stan Royer         Greg David        Les Pearsey
Joseph Mahoney    1B     0%   1%   3%  10%  86%         Otis Green      LaVel Freeman     George Hinshaw
Corey Patterson   LF     0%   2%   3%   8%  88%       Alexis Gomez       Rob Lukachyk      Todd Dunwoody
Matt Angle        CF     1%   2%   8%  22%  68%        Jerry Owens   LaSchelle Tarver      Lance Johnson
Robert Andino     SS     3%   4%  12%  27%  53%     Travis Dawkins    Andrew Pinckney       Jeff Branson
Xavier Avery      CF     1%   1%   5%  15%  79%    Herm Winningham       Trench Davis        Chris Duffy
Michel Hernandez  C      1%   1%   4%  17%  77%        Chris Ashby          Bob Swift     Kirt Manwaring
Brandon Waring    3B     0%   1%   4%   9%  86%      Mike Costanzo        Tom Quinlan         Stan Royer
Caleb Joseph      C      2%   3%   5%  14%  77%   Brandon Marsters         Jason Hill      Joe Cipolloni
Julio Lugo        2B     1%   1%   2%   7%  89%          Jose Cruz      Jamey Carroll    Dave Concepcion
Paco Figueroa     2B     0%   1%   1%   5%  93%      Kent Anderson       Jhonny Perez      Rene Gonzales
Cesar Izturis     SS     0%   1%   3%  12%  83%        Rod Correia     Rondin Johnson        Neifi Perez
Craig Tatum       C      0%   1%   2%   6%  91%        Jose Molina       Doug Lindsey       Matt Garrick
Pedro Florimon    SS     1%   1%   2%   5%  92%   Buddy Biancalana       Brian Bixler      Mario Ramirez
Joey Gathright    CF     1%   2%   2%   4%  91%      Quincy Foster       Jim Buccheri        Joe Simpson
Adam Donachie     C      0%   1%   1%   2%  97%        Jean Boscan        Joe Hietpas       Matt Garrick

Player            PO     TOP   MID   BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Koji Uehara       RP     55%   33%   12%        John Smoltz     Trevor Hoffman         Doug Jones
Jim Johnson       RP     31%   47%   23%       Ray Krawczyk    Robbie Crabtree        Scott Terry
Mike Gonzalez     RP     22%   41%   37%       Pete Richert     Mike Remlinger        Randy Myers
Brian Matusz      SP     26%   61%   13%      C.C. Sabathia         Randy Wolf         Noah Lowry
Jeremy Guthrie    SP     17%   62%   20%      Ryan Franklin        Bill Wegman       Glenn Abbott
Jason Berken      RP      9%   50%   41%    Mark Williamson        Aaron Small       Mike Couchee
Matt Albers       RP      6%   42%   52%         Tony Fiore      John Riedling      Mike Bumstead
Kevin Millwood    SP      7%   53%   39%        Doug Linton       Kevin Tapani     Shane Reynolds
Mark Hendrickson  RP      7%   32%   61%     Lee Guetterman      Darren Oliver   Terry Mulholland
Dennis Sarfate    RP      6%   30%   64%       Dwayne Henry       Calvin Jones      Johnny Ruffin
Brad Bergesen     SP      4%   43%   53%      Bob Tewksbury      Brian Meadows         Chris Begg
Jake Arrieta      SP      3%   40%   57%      Derrick Lewis        J.D. Durbin     Charlie Haeger
Cla Meredith      RP      3%   24%   74%        Mike Draper         Dave Smith       Bert Bradley
Zachary Britton   SP      3%   41%   55%        Mike Miller       John Daniels     Derek Thompson
Luis Lebron       RP      4%   24%   71%         Eric Plunk       Billy Sadler       Bart Miadich
Rick Vanden Hurk  SP      3%   36%   61%        Boof Bonser       Scot Shields          Gil Meche
Chris Tillman     SP      2%   36%   62%      Tony McKnight        Joe Johnson     LaTroy Hawkins
Jim Hoey          RP      2%   25%   73%        Justin Kaye     Mike MacDougal       Roy Corcoran
Alfredo Simon     RP      4%   25%   71%          Bob Wells      Willie Fraser         Ben Howard
Alberto Castillo  RP      4%   20%   77%     Dan Schatzeder      Dave Righetti    Vic Darensbourg
Josh Rupe         RP      0%   11%   89%      Mike Bumstead        Jose Segura      Victor Moreno
Armando Gabino    RP      0%   12%   88%         Jerry Reed    Craig Weissmann      Dale Mohorcic
Brandon Cooney    RP      2%   15%   84%       Brian Bowles        Mike Timlin        Willie Eyre
Jim Miller        RP      0%    9%   91%     Jim Czajkowski       Brian Allard        Dave Hooten
Mike Hinckley     RP      0%   10%   90%         Todd Rizzo         Dan McGinn          Tom Doyle
Pedro Viola       RP      0%    7%   93%         Todd Rizzo          Joey Long        Mark Watson
Chris George      SP      0%    3%   97%       Jamie Walker     Adam Pettyjohn       Scott Aldred
Troy Patton       SP      0%    2%   98%      Jason Pierson     Mike Prochaska          Nate Teut
Brandon Erbe      SP      0%    3%   97%      Tony Menendez       Jim Blueberg      Fernando Rijo
Chorye Spoone     SP      0%    1%   99%      Mark Woodyard    Doug Gogolewski     Carlos Paredes
Timothy Bascom    SP      0%    0%  100%     Kyle Middleton    Greg Biercevicz      Edward Valdez

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Nick Markakis           30%      31%       9%      46%       1%       5%       8%       3%
Luke Scott               6%      15%      33%       0%       0%      10%      12%       0%
Brian Roberts           16%      20%       5%       4%       1%       0%       3%      23%
Adam Jones              19%       3%      11%       2%      15%      11%       3%       0%
Mark Reynolds            0%       3%      24%       0%       1%      70%       3%       4%
Nolan Reimold            2%       5%       3%       0%       0%       3%       1%       1%
Matt Wieters            10%       8%       3%       0%       0%       2%       1%       0%
Jake Fox                 5%       3%      16%       0%       0%       0%       3%       0%
Ty Wigginton             5%       1%       5%       0%       0%       4%       1%       0%
Felix Pie                8%       1%       5%       0%       7%       1%       1%       0%
Ryan Adams               9%       1%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brandon Snyder           2%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jeff Salazar             1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Garrett Atkins           2%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Josh Bell                1%       0%       3%       1%       0%       3%       0%       0%
Joseph Mahoney           1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       4%
Corey Patterson          2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       6%
Matt Angle               5%       3%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%      55%
Robert Andino            1%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Xavier Avery             2%       0%       0%       2%      20%       0%       0%      78%
Michel Hernandez         7%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brandon Waring           0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       5%       0%       0%
Caleb Joseph             1%       0%       2%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Julio Lugo               3%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       2%
Paco Figueroa            4%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Cesar Izturis            3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       4%
Craig Tatum              1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Pedro Florimon           0%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       3%
Joey Gathright           2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       3%
Adam Donachie            0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Koji Uehara               44%        82%        85%        64%        58%
Jim Johnson               23%        71%         6%        10%        80%
Mike Gonzalez             16%        55%        94%         3%        36%
Brian Matusz               4%        55%        20%         0%        52%
Jeremy Guthrie             2%        43%         0%        18%        23%
Jason Berken               6%        46%         4%         5%        58%
Matt Albers                4%        35%         2%         0%        73%
Kevin Millwood             1%        22%         0%         3%        19%
Mark Hendrickson           6%        31%         3%        15%        37%
Dennis Sarfate             4%        29%        84%         0%        30%
Brad Bergesen              0%        16%         0%        11%        24%
Jake Arrieta               0%        14%         1%         0%        51%
Cla Meredith               2%        21%         0%         4%        58%
Zachary Britton            0%        14%         1%         0%        75%
Luis Lebron                3%        23%        94%         0%        30%
Rick Vanden Hurk           0%        14%         6%         0%        17%
Chris Tillman              0%         9%         1%         1%        18%
Jim Hoey                   1%        16%        36%         0%        71%
Alfredo Simon              2%        22%         8%         6%        23%
Alberto Castillo           2%        18%        12%         2%        40%
Josh Rupe                  0%         6%         0%         0%        72%
Armando Gabino             0%         7%         0%         0%        20%
Brandon Cooney             2%        12%         2%         0%        49%
Jim Miller                 0%         7%         4%         1%        16%
Mike Hinckley              0%         5%         1%         0%        60%
Pedro Viola                0%         4%         4%         0%        45%
Chris George               0%         1%         1%         3%        11%
Troy Patton                0%         0%         0%         0%         2%
Brandon Erbe               0%         0%         1%         0%         2%
Chorye Spoone              0%         0%         0%         0%        21%
Timothy Bascom             0%         0%         0%         0%         1%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 06, 2010 at 09:15 PM | 32 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. danielj Posted: December 06, 2010 at 09:27 PM (#3704208)
What the hell happened to Tillman?
   2. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: December 06, 2010 at 09:37 PM (#3704217)
I thought that was a pretty pessimistic projection for Markakis, but then I went to his bb-ref page, and now my question is: What has happened to Markakis over the last couple of years? Is it just a case of a solid player having fluctuated into a couple of great years when he was 23-24, or is Markakis really going backwards/stagnating?
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 06, 2010 at 09:44 PM (#3704224)
re: Markakis, the Uptons, etc.

I wonder if development curves have started to shift as more guys specialize in baseball earlier, get specialized coaching/play on travel teams in HS, play 60+ Gs a year at warm weather colleges, get involved in weight training as teens, etc.

Maybe a lot of these guys are done developing in their early twenties, and we shouldn't expect that age 24-27 surge.
   4. karlmagnus Posted: December 06, 2010 at 09:45 PM (#3704225)
Wieters isn't exactly setting the world on fire either.
   5. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: December 06, 2010 at 09:53 PM (#3704235)
Wieters isn't exactly setting the world on fire either.

Maybe, but he doesn't have to beat that projection by much to be an all star.
   6.   Posted: December 06, 2010 at 09:54 PM (#3704237)
Adam Jones 2009 OPSs+: 105
Adam Jones 2010 OPS+: 107

Wieters: 96/89

Markakis: 108/119

Yeah, I can see why Orioles fans would be a little disappointed.

Sidenote: How can Brian Roberts only be 33? It feels like he took over 2B from Billy Ripken.
   7. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: December 06, 2010 at 09:54 PM (#3704238)
The pitchers have been pounding Markakis away, and he's been content to slap the ball to the opposite field for singles or doubles. He needs to crowd the plate and turn on the ball. He would really benefit from the hitting coach in Toronto. I wouldn't be surprised to see Markakis put up exactly the same season again in 2011, but I also wouldn't be surprised if a lightbulb goes off and he hits .310 with 35 HRs.
   8. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 06, 2010 at 10:25 PM (#3704264)
Would you mind running projections for Wynn Pelzer and Pedro Beato, Dan?
   9. CraigK Posted: December 06, 2010 at 11:13 PM (#3704326)
I want extrapolated ZIPS projections for Mark Reynolds solely to see how quickly he annihilates the strikeout record.
   10. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 06, 2010 at 11:29 PM (#3704349)
5-12, 6.56, 118 IP, 18 HR, 68 BB, 76 K for Pelzer (ERA+ of 67). ZiPS still not quite sold on Beato, but 2-2, 5.08, 56.2 IP, 7 HR, 25 BB, 35 K (ERA+ of 86) is a big improvement.
   11. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 06, 2010 at 11:35 PM (#3704352)
I did Reynolds career with Arizona. He loses some singles and doubles, but gets his homers over 400 (415). ZiPS starts dialing Reynolds's playing time back at 33/34 with the OPS+ falling into the mid-90s, so it only has him 2nd behind Reggie Jackson. ZiPS has Upton and Dunn passing Reynolds, simply because they are better hitters and likely to have longer-enough careers to beat Reynolds.
   12. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 07, 2010 at 02:20 AM (#3704498)
ZiPS still not quite sold on Beato, but 2-2, 5.08, 56.2 IP, 7 HR, 25 BB, 35 K (ERA+ of 86) is a big improvement.


Yeah, that could've definitely been worse.

Thanks!
   13. monkhenry Posted: December 07, 2010 at 03:08 AM (#3704518)
Projection for Scott Moore ?
   14. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 07, 2010 at 03:21 AM (#3704528)
Scott Moore has moved on back to the Cubs and his projection will appear there.
   15. Walt Davis Posted: December 07, 2010 at 06:07 AM (#3704603)
<i>Scott Moore has moved on back to the Cubs and his projection will appear there.</i.

That's starting 1B Scott Moore to you!

I'm almost starting to wonder if the Cubs' plan for 1B is a Fukudome/Nady platoon or something.
   16. jingoist Posted: December 07, 2010 at 06:54 AM (#3704619)
Is Garrett Atkins still an Oriole?
I thought they released him last summer.
He was beyond pathetic the few times I witnessed his complete befuddlement when attempting to hit a pitched ball.
This guy is falling faster that a meteorite
   17. Honkie Kong Posted: December 07, 2010 at 08:13 AM (#3704641)
They are above average at every offensive position but SS ( Are there any SS on the market? ). Pitching looks weak, but couple of league average arms ( Garland would have been a good fit for them ), or a step up from their young prospects, and this has the look of a pretty decent and young team.
   18. Walt Davis Posted: December 07, 2010 at 11:22 AM (#3704659)
Are there any SS on the market?

Cabrera, Renteria. I'm sure you could have Jack Wilson if you wanted for little besides paying his salary. Hardy or Bartlett might be available in trade.
   19. phaight76 Posted: December 07, 2010 at 04:08 PM (#3704756)
Hey Dan... can we get a David Hernandez projection... thanks. nice work (as usual).
   20. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 07, 2010 at 05:35 PM (#3704841)
Brendan Ryan is supposedly very available FWIW
   21. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: December 07, 2010 at 06:00 PM (#3704868)
I'd rather have Ryan than Bartlett. His fielding numbers are incredible. He's the new Adam Everett.
   22. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: December 07, 2010 at 06:21 PM (#3704891)
I thought that was a pretty pessimistic projection for Markakis, but then I went to his bb-ref page, and now my question is: What has happened to Markakis over the last couple of years? Is it just a case of a solid player having fluctuated into a couple of great years when he was 23-24, or is Markakis really going backwards/stagnating?
Terry Crowley is the worst hitting coach in the history of major league baseball. Finally got his ass shoved out the door into a sinecure position.
   23. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 07, 2010 at 06:58 PM (#3704930)
They are above average at every offensive position but SS ( Are there any SS on the market? ).


2008-2010- the median starter at each position hit:
1B/DH: 122
2B: 100
SS: 88
3B: 100
LF: 107
CF: 104
RF: 111
C: 90

The Orioles' projected starters beat:
C by 10
2B by 5
3B by 8
CF by 2
RF by 5

The median starting OPS+ (all positions) is 105, Oriole starters "project" to hit 103...
but aside from C, the bench looks awful, and those pitching projections are scary
   24. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: December 07, 2010 at 08:50 PM (#3705077)
The median starting OPS+ (all positions) is 105, Oriole starters "project" to hit 103...
but aside from C, the bench looks awful,
Story of the Orioles over the last dozen years: accumulate a bunch of people who, if everything goes right, are probably about league average, and then hope that none of them miss any time at all because other than 3 or 4 LF/DHs, you have no depth at all. And, since everyone other than Cal Ripken misses time, it's always worse than the mediocrity that it looks like at first glance.
and those pitching projections are scary
Ignore them, then, and focus just on the post-Showalter numbers. Best pitching coach in the game.
   25. North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan Posted: December 07, 2010 at 09:18 PM (#3705119)
Terry Crowley is the worst hitting coach in the history of major league baseball. Finally got his ass shoved out the door into a sinecure position.


Terry Crowley should just sit on the bench and watch the game like any other ####### fan.

Obligatory NSFW link for the Terry Crowley mention.
   26. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 09, 2010 at 05:53 PM (#3706819)
Dan, will you be doing ZIPS projections for Rule 5 picks? I'd like to see the numbers of Pat Egan, taken from the O's by the Brewers.
   27. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 09, 2010 at 11:38 PM (#3707274)
And Wynn Pelzer and Pedro Beato too if you don't mind.
   28. CaptainBrownEye Posted: December 27, 2010 at 11:28 PM (#3718577)
Any possibility on getting a JJ Hardy projection? Thanks.
   29. rlc Posted: January 01, 2011 at 01:31 AM (#3721086)
From the Braves projections:
Player            B    PO  Age    BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Derrek Lee        R    1B  35   .262 .343 .432 135 516  74 135  29   1  19  78  64 113   3   2  107

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Derrek Lee                    AV
/99

Player            PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Derrek Lee        1B     5
%  17%  20%  32%  26%          Ron Santo       Kevin Millar       Fred McGriff

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45
2B  103B   30HR  140 OPS+  30SB
Derrek Lee               7
%      14%       7%       1%       0%       5%       4%       0
   30. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: February 01, 2011 at 02:54 AM (#3740549)
BAL signed Jeff Fiorentino to a minor league deal (no ST invite!); would you mind projecting him please? Thanks...
   31. rlc Posted: February 05, 2011 at 08:52 AM (#3743869)
So the official ZiPS projection for one Oriole lineup is:

name       OBP  OPS+
Roberts   .350  105
Lee
*      .343  107
Markakis  .363  116
Guerrero  .343  117
Scott     .345  118
Jones     .329  106
Wieters   .339  100
Reynolds  .321  108
Hardy
**   .602  417

*Projected with Atlanta
**Estimated 
   32. Xander Posted: February 14, 2011 at 08:47 AM (#3749738)
That J.J. Hardy projection seems optimistic.

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