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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Sunday, February 20, 2011

2011 ZiPS Projections - Boston Red Sox

Right now, the Red Sox are my pick to go to the World Series (against the Phillies).

Obviously, a lot can go wrong with predictions, and while the Red Sox aren’t “beat-in-your-brains good”, they look to now be the best equipped team in the AL to handle the nasty surprises

that pop up over the course of a season.  Almost every position has a suitable backup that could handle the job respectively for a month or two.  Even in a tricky position like short, the

Red Sox have a ton of options before they get down to needing to call up Dlugach, Destroyer of Worlds.

No big surprises here.  Catcher will be a relatively weak spot for the team, but there’s a reasonable chance of Saltalamacchia beating his projection if he his is fact recovered from his

case of Mackey Sasser Disease.  Thanks to some really horrific cameo appearances, Red Sox catchers only combined for 273/330/463 last year and while they will not match that this year, the

loss is smaller than many think.

Last up:  Yankees

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Adrian Gonzalez   L    1B   29   .316 .407 .569 155 573 107 181  41   1  34 114  87 118   0   0  151
Carl Crawford     L    LF   29   .312 .359 .491 148 586 100 183  34  13  15  81  42  90  44  12  119
Kevin Youkilis    R    1B   32   .280 .382 .505 122 440  73 123  30   3  21  70  64  98   5   2  129
Dustin Pedroia    R    2B   27   .300 .370 .471 129 520  86 156  40   2  15  61  55  48  15   3  118
David Ortiz       L    DH   35   .260 .363 .509 124 450  68 117  29   1  27  83  73 113   0   1  124
J.D. Drew         L    RF   35   .260 .362 .473 118 400  62 104  22   3  19  56  63  91   3   2  116
Jacoby Ellsbury   L    CF   27   .284 .336 .397 106 426  64 121  20   5   6  39  30  55  41   7   91
Ryan Kalish       L    CF   23   .261 .328 .407 152 570  77 149  33   4  14  68  55 128  24   5   91
Mike Lowell       R    3B   37   .269 .322 .434  91 320  34  86  20   0  11  46  26  48   1   1   95
Jed Lowrie        B    2B   27   .252 .333 .422  92 306  40  77  24   2   8  42  39  65   2   1   95
Marco Scutaro     R    SS   35   .272 .341 .381 132 525  76 143  31   1   8  53  54  60   7   3   88
Darnell McDonald  R    CF   32   .255 .307 .415 119 388  45  99  25   5   9  44  28  93  11   2   86
Mike Cameron      R    CF   38   .243 .322 .413  83 300  39  73  19   1  10  31  33  85   3   2   90
Hector Luna       R    3B   31   .260 .312 .412 116 396  52 103  20   2  12  51  27  81   5   3   88
Jason Varitek     B    C    39   .223 .310 .426  62 197  23  44  13   0   9  25  25  56   0   0   90
Ryan Lavarnway    R    C    23   .242 .320 .392 134 521  63 126  33   0  15  78  53 144   1   1   85
Daniel Nava       B    LF   28   .251 .330 .380 105 371  42  93  26   2   6  47  35  93   2   3   85
Nate Spears       L    2B   26   .253 .325 .376 139 487  71 123  28   4   8  53  49  93   7   4   83
Lars Anderson     L    1B   23   .250 .318 .386 155 580  61 145  39   2  12  67  57 152   2   2   83
Carlos Delgado    L    1B   39   .244 .333 .366  12  41   5  10   2   0   1  12   4  11   0   0   83
Josh Reddick      L    CF   24   .255 .292 .419 148 549  61 140  33   6  15  60  29 109   7   6   83
Jordan Parraz     R    RF   26   .255 .327 .374 119 444  57 113  28   2   7  49  36  93  10   8   82
Drew Sutton       B    2B   28   .240 .325 .362 120 409  53  98  25   2   7  43  49 111   8   4   79
Ryan Shealy       R    1B   31   .225 .305 .386  78 285  30  64  17   1   9  42  30  83   0   0   79
Yamaico Navarro   R    SS   23   .253 .304 .378 127 479  53 121  27   3   9  57  34  97  12   7   77
Jarrod SaltalamaccB    C    26   .230 .308 .382  92 317  39  73  19   1   9  38  33  99   1   1   79
Bubba Bell        L    RF   28   .252 .312 .358 107 405  44 102  21   2   6  41  35  81   8   4   74
Luis Exposito     R    C    24   .244 .295 .384 131 516  53 126  38   2  10  72  34 122   2   3   75
Che-Hsuan Lin     R    CF   22   .251 .326 .328 143 570  83 143  24   4   4  44  57 100  26  14   72
Jose Iglesias     R    SS   21   .266 .307 .344 105 398  50 106  21   5   0  24  19  95   8   6   70
Aaron Bates       R    LF   27   .234 .305 .341 131 492  48 115  24   1   9  49  42 139   0   1   69
Mark Wagner       R    C    27   .231 .287 .355  72 273  25  63  19   0   5  32  21  59   0   0   66
Oscar Tejeda      R    2B   21   .246 .280 .358 144 573  62 141  30   5   8  63  29 141  12   8   65
Brent Dlugach     R    SS   28   .236 .277 .348 124 471  50 111  26   3   7  41  25 160   7   3   62
Niuman Romero     B    SS   26   .246 .299 .311 120 411  48 101  19   1   2  32  29  70  11   6   60
Paul Hoover       R    C    35   .211 .276 .307  69 228  20  48  12   2   2  19  19  67   0   1   52

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Adrian Gonzalez               AV/86
Carl Crawford                                                 EX/76
Kevin Youkilis                VG/62           FR/84
Dustin Pedroia                        VG/63
David Ortiz                  PO/121
J.D. Drew                                                                     VG/75
Jacoby Ellsbury                                               VG/87   AV/48   VG/87
Ryan Kalish                                                  VG/128   AV/99  AV/128
Mike Lowell                  AV/111           FR/78
Jed Lowrie                           AV/118  AV/109   AV/90
Marco Scutaro                        AV/101   AV/98   AV/89  AV/114
Darnell McDonald                                             AV/101  FR/107  VG/106
Mike Cameron                                                          AV/86
Hector Luna                  VG/198  AV/109  VG/103  PO/109
Jason Varitek            FR
Ryan Lavarnway           FR
Daniel Nava                                                  AV/106          FR/124
Nate Spears                          AV/110  PO/109  PO/112
Lars Anderson                AV/129
Carlos Delgado               FR/106
Josh Reddick                                                 AV/126  FR/157  AV/126
Jordan Parraz                                                        PO/122  AV/124
Drew Sutton                   VG/98  AV/125  FR/122  PO/110  AV/125          FR/107
Ryan Shealy                   AV/79
Yamaico Navarro                      AV/102  AV/103  AV/118
Jarrod Saltalamacch      PO
Bubba Bell                                                   AV/107  FR/167  AV/107
Luis Exposito            AV
Che-Hsuan Lin                                                        VG/154  VG/117
Jose Iglesias                                        VG/107
Aaron Bates                  AV/126                          AV/145
Mark Wagner              AV
Oscar Tejeda                         VG/152  FR/109  FR/161
Brent Dlugach                                AV/109  AV/126
Niuman Romero                AV/112   FR/79  AV/111  FR/112                  AV/111
Paul Hoover                  FR/125

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Jon Lester        L      27     3.25    18    7   31   31   202.3  177   73   16   69  214   137
Clay Buchholz     R      26     3.79    14    8   29   29   166.3  158   70   15   65  128   117
John Lackey       R      32     4.14    12    8   28   28   182.7  189   84   19   53  139   107
Josh Beckett      R      31     4.16    10    7   25   25   158.0  160   73   19   42  151   107
Daisuke Matsuzaka R      30     4.19     9    6   22   22   126.7  120   59   12   60  117   106
Alfredo Aceves    R      28     4.38   	 5    4   29   10    76.0   79   37   10   22   51   101		
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Tim Wakefield     R      44     4.74     7    7   24   19   123.3  132   65   16   39   75    94
Michael Bowden    R      24     4.91     6    6   34   21   121.0  130   66   16   47   76    91
Felix Doubront    L      23     5.13     7    8   29   22   107.0  123   61   10   53   71    87
Junichi Tazawa    R      25     5.14    10   11   26   24   126.0  146   72   17   41   77    86
Brandon Duckworth R      35     5.53     4    6   23   17    99.3  115   61   13   47   60    80
Rich Hill         L      31     5.65     4    6   28   13    73.3   77   46    9   59   59    79
Kyle Weiland      R      24     5.82     5    8   23   22    99.0  116   64   13   56   64    76
Andrew Miller     L      26     6.04     5    9   29   23   114.7  138   77   12   83   83    74
Adam Mills        R      26     6.23     6   10   25   25   125.7  180   87   17   31   46    71
Stolmy Pimentel   R      21     6.26     7   12   25   25   110.7  140   77   19   52   62    71
Alex Wilson       R      24     6.38     3    5   21   21    84.7  104   60   15   43   49    70
Matt Fox          R      28     6.48     5   10   32   21   118.0  151   85   21   60   67    69
Kason Gabbard     L      29     6.96     1    3   13    7    32.3   41   25    4   29   18    64

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Daniel Bard       R      26     3.20     3    1   64    0    70.3   56   25    7   31   81   139
Jonathan Papelbon R      30     3.20     6    2   63    0    64.7   55   23    6   21   75   139
Bobby Jenks       R      30     3.69     3    2   53    0    53.7   52   22    5   16   50   121
Dennys Reyes      L      34     3.92     2    1   65    0    39.0   38   18    3   18   30   113
Dan Wheeler       R      33     3.93     5    3   65    0    50.3   46   22    7   15   45   113
Scott Atchison    R      35     4.08     3    2   47    1    64.0   65   29    6   20   48   109
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Robert Manuel     R      27     4.17     6    4   53    0    69.0   68   32    8   22   49   107
Hideki Okajima    L      35     4.25     4    3   55    0    48.7   49   23    6   18   42   105
Jason Bergmann    R      29     4.53     5    5   60    0    59.7   60   30    8   28   50    98
Matt Albers       R      28     4.60     4    4   58    1    74.3   79   38    6   35   51    97
Tony Pena Jr.     R      30     4.78     1    2   27    0    37.3   41   21    4   18   23    93
Randy Williams    L      35     4.98     1    1   43    0    43.7   46   23    4   22   34    89
Scott Schoeneweis L      37     5.18     1    1   33    0    24.3   27   14    3   11   17    86
Chad Paronto      R      35     5.24     2    3   45    0    56.7   67   33    6   23   33    85
Jason Rice        R      25     5.53     2    3   47    0    57.0   57   35    7   45   52    80
Clevelan Santeliz R      24     6.04     2    3   40    0    51.7   53   32    6   38   40    74

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
David Ortiz          .271  .364  .521  2204  7966  1272  2161   561    21   463  1543  1160  1742    10   126
Dustin Pedroia       .289  .354  .445  1859  7483  1177  2163   532    23   197   828   727   604   188   107
Mike Cameron         .249  .336  .441  2105  7434  1136  1850   424    62   294  1022   917  2057   303   104
Carlos Delgado       .280  .383  .545  2043  7311  1244  2045   485    18   473  1520  1111  1752    14   138
J.D. Drew            .273  .374  .483  1990  6682  1161  1822   358    60   310   997  1050  1431    97   121
Kevin Youkilis       .280  .376  .477  1597  5748   934  1610   387    35   225   889   776  1145    50   120
Marco Scutaro        .265  .331  .376  1497  5417   747  1438   301    15    90   545   521   658    62    86
Jason Varitek        .255  .339  .434  1643  5409   692  1377   331    13   205   787   654  1292    25    97
Jacoby Ellsbury      .282  .333  .393  1056  4218   633  1189   193    44    63   387   293   510   332    88
Jarrod Saltalamacchia.232  .306  .382   923  3130   378   727   181    10    89   368   317   910     5    78

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Jon Lester         224  104    0    3.53  435  432     2745 2493 1077  247 1000 2780    127
Tim Wakefield      206  184   22    4.40  637  474     3287 3222 1608  421 1226 2192    106
John Lackey        184  140    0    4.12  442  441     2840 2958 1299  296  857 2185    108
Josh Beckett       161  116    0    4.07  379  377     2361 2290 1068  279  694 2203    109
Daisuke Matsuzaka  105   76    0    4.32  262  262     1511 1435  726  158  741 1369    104

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Adrian Gonzalez   1B     74%  19%   5%   2%   0%      Willie Aikens        Boog Powell       Jason Giambi
Carl Crawford     LF     41%  31%  13%   9%   6%          Lou Brock       Kenny Lofton     Andy Van Slyke
Kevin Youkilis    1B     33%  34%  17%  13%   3%         Gil Hodges          Ray Boone          John Jaha
Dustin Pedroia    2B     68%  15%   9%   6%   2%    Edgardo Alfonzo       Marcus Giles        Ian Kinsler
David Ortiz       DH     25%  31%  18%  18%   8%      Eddie Mathews     Carlos Delgado        Boog Powell
J.D. Drew         RF     18%  26%  20%  19%  16%    Charlie Maxwell       Dwight Evans     Bill Nicholson
Jacoby Ellsbury   CF     28%  22%  27%  17%   7%           Rudy Law       Steve Finley        Tike Redman
Ryan Kalish       CF     13%  16%  26%  26%  19%     Andy Tomberlin       Daryl Boston      LaVel Freeman
Mike Lowell       3B      5%  13%  20%  28%  34%      Matt Williams         Cal Ripken           Art Howe
Jed Lowrie        2B     16%  15%  19%  25%  25%      John Valentin      Glenn Hubbard       Jim Lefebvre
Marco Scutaro     SS      9%  16%  31%  28%  16%       Mark Loretta     Edgar Renteria       Billy Jurges
Darnell McDonald  CF      4%   8%  22%  32%  33%        Juan Samuel        Lou Collier         Paul Blair
Mike Cameron      CF      8%  10%  20%  28%  33%        Jim Edmonds        Russ Morman    George Hendrick
Hector Luna       3B      1%   5%  10%  23%  61%       Jesus Alfaro      Chuck Jackson        Steve Sisco
Jason Varitek     C      11%  20%  21%  27%  22%         Gregg Zaun       Rick Dempsey       Chad Kreuter
Ryan Lavarnway    C       5%  15%  21%  30%  29%Maximiliano Ramirez        John Roskos      Terry McGriff
Daniel Nava       LF      0%   1%   3%  11%  84%        Russ Morman      Jeff McKnight      Jeff Wetherby
Nate Spears       2B      3%   5%  10%  24%  57%       Ed Giovanola     Andrew Beattie      Chris Pittaro
Lars Anderson     1B      0%   1%   3%  14%  82%         Jon Tucker       Brandon Moss       Mike Rendina
Carlos Delgado    1B      1%   5%   8%  21%  65%        Mike Easler    Phil Cavarretta         Jorge Orta
Josh Reddick      CF      2%   4%  11%  23%  61%        Randy Byers        Shawn Abner        Theron Todd
Jordan Parraz     RF      0%   1%   3%   9%  87%       Dave Hollins      Luis Montanez        Alvin Moore
Drew Sutton       2B      2%   3%   7%  20%  67%       Bobby Scales       Ryan RobertsYurendell de Caster
Ryan Shealy       1B      0%   1%   1%   7%  91%   Carmelo Martinez        Dustan Mohr       Chris Widger
Yamaico Navarro   SS      4%   5%  13%  24%  55%     Nelson Johnson        Josh Wilson        Kelly Paris
Jarrod SaltalamaccC       2%   7%  14%  33%  45%       Eric Helfand     Kelly Shoppach       John Gibbons
Bubba Bell        RF      0%   1%   1%   4%  94%     Rowland Office    Bubba Carpenter          Rich Lane
Luis Exposito     C       1%   4%   9%  27%  60%  Salomon Manriquez        Randy Knorr      Brook Fordyce
Che-Hsuan Lin     CF      1%   2%   5%  15%  78%     Tony Gwynn Jr.         Ricki Bass       Darren Lewis
Jose Iglesias     SS      0%   2%   8%  20%  71%       Ronny Cedeno        Wil Cordero        Dickie Thon
Aaron Bates       LF      0%   0%   0%   1%  99%          Tim Giles    Glenn Carpenter    Richard Johnson
Mark Wagner       C       1%   2%   4%  15%  78%     Bill Dobrolsky       Mike Nickeas        Joe Ayrault
Oscar Tejeda      2B      1%   1%   2%   5%  91%       Juan Delgado     George Hinshaw        Danny Ainge
Brent Dlugach     SS      0%   1%   3%  10%  85%      Joe DeMaestri        Greg Porter         Nick Green
Niuman Romero     SS      0%   0%   2%   8%  89%     Jarrett Stotts        Mark DeRosa         Pat Osborn
Paul Hoover       C       0%   0%   1%   4%  95%      Frank Charles  George Mitterwald         Joe Oliver

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Daniel Bard       RP      45%    38%    18%     Scott Garrelts    Armando Benitez       Rich Gossage
Jonathan Papelbon RP      67%    23%    11%          Tom Henke         Duane Ward          Mel Rojas
Jon Lester        SP      68%    23%    10%Fernando Valenzuela       Sam McDowell       Billy Pierce
Bobby Jenks       RP      56%    34%    11%     Rollie Fingers       Donnie Moore      Rick Aguilera
Clay Buchholz     SP      25%    48%    28%     Ramon Martinez         Aaron Sele        Jack Morris
Dennys Reyes      RP      21%    45%    34%  Scott Schoeneweis         Scott Eyre      Trever Miller
Dan Wheeler       RP      27%    48%    25%       Jeff Reardon      Jeff Brantley      Mike Trombley
Scott Atchison    RP      25%    54%    22%        Mike Maddux        Dave Pavlas      Joe Slusarski
John Lackey       SP      29%    51%    19%        Doug Drabek     Kevin Millwood      Jack McDowell
Josh Beckett      SP      42%    47%    11%     Javier Vazquez      Pedro Astacio         Jon Lieber
Robert Manuel     RP      24%    52%    24%        John Wasdin          Jeff Shaw    Steve Ontiveros
Daisuke Matsuzaka SP      38%    51%    11%       Chan Ho Park       David Palmer         Hideo Nomo
Hideki Okajima    RP      26%    47%    27%       Mark Guthrie       Dave LaRoche      Trever Miller
Alfredo Aceves    SP      15%    52%    33%     Paul Quantrill          Dave Ford        Kris Wilson
Jason Bergmann    RP       5%    34%    61%         Jim Dorsey      Jimmy Serrano       Richie Lewis
Matt Albers       RP       6%    42%    52%         Tony Fiore      John Riedling      Mike Bumstead
Tim Wakefield     SP      24%    46%    30%      Tom Candiotti     Woody Williams       Mark Gardner
Tony Pena Jr.     RP       7%    31%    62%      Mike Bumstead       Jake Robbins      Andy Mitchell
Michael Bowden    SP       9%    55%    35%        Robert Toth       Joel Pineiro        John Martin
Randy Williams    RP      12%    32%    56%      Norm Charlton      Dave Righetti        Kevin Tolar
Felix Doubront    SP       7%    46%    47%       John Daniels      Bill Scherrer     Allan Anderson
Junichi Tazawa    SP       4%    50%    46%      Tony McKnight     LaTroy Hawkins        Justin Reid
Scott Schoeneweis RP      13%    27%    60%      Dave Righetti      Rheal Cormier        Sparky Lyle
Chad Paronto      RP       5%    23%    71%        Bob Scanlan       Ricky Barlow         A.J. Sager
Jason Rice        RP       1%    19%    80%     Chris Schroder      Allan Simpson       Billy Sadler
Brandon Duckworth SP       4%    24%    72%           Ken Hill        Erik Hanson         Alan Benes
Rich Hill         SP       1%    13%    86%        Jeff Tabaka         Jon Cannon         Tim Lollar
Kyle Weiland      SP       1%    17%    82%    Chris Carpenter      Charlie Scott         Matt Saier
Clevelan Santeliz RP       1%     8%    91%      Michael Doyne       Derek Aucoin       Billy Sadler
Andrew Miller     SP       0%     5%    95%      Mike Wodnicki       Eric Hillman         Ken Vining
Adam Mills        SP       0%     4%    96%     Andrew Baldwin      Doug Waechter        Josh Towers
Stolmy Pimentel   SP       0%     5%    95%       Jim Blueberg         Rick Bauer       Ty Hartshorn
Alex Wilson       SP       0%     5%    95%       Steve Rogers     Brandon Knight       Jared Jensen
Matt Fox          SP       0%     3%    97%      Kip Bouknight    Todd Van Poppel        R.A. Dickey
Kason Gabbard     SP       2%     9%    89%     Kevin Pickford      Eddie Oropesa      Matt Thornton

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Adrian Gonzalez         37%      69%      64%       6%       0%      58%      68%       0%
Carl Crawford           44%      14%      19%       1%      61%       3%      10%      95%
Kevin Youkilis          23%      55%      49%       3%       2%      10%      26%       0%
Dustin Pedroia          48%      40%      26%      28%       0%       2%      11%       6%
David Ortiz              7%      33%      51%       3%       0%      32%      22%       0%
J.D. Drew                7%      33%      25%       0%       2%       6%      10%       0%
Jacoby Ellsbury         28%       9%       3%       0%       9%       0%       1%      94%
Ryan Kalish              6%       5%       4%      10%       4%       1%       1%      25%
Mike Lowell             14%       4%      11%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Jed Lowrie               5%      10%       6%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Marco Scutaro           13%      10%       1%       5%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Darnell McDonald         4%       1%       2%       0%       6%       0%       0%       1%
Mike Cameron             3%       5%       7%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Hector Luna              5%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jason Varitek            2%       4%      11%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Ryan Lavarnway           1%       3%       2%       9%       0%       2%       1%       0%
Daniel Nava              3%       5%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Nate Spears              2%       3%       0%       2%       5%       0%       0%       0%
Lars Anderson            1%       2%       0%      27%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Carlos Delgado          17%      26%      12%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Josh Reddick             3%       0%       4%       6%      18%       1%       0%       0%
Jordan Parraz            1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       2%
Drew Sutton              1%       3%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Ryan Shealy              0%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Yamaico Navarro          3%       1%       2%       1%       2%       1%       1%       2%
Jarrod Saltalamacc       1%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Bubba Bell               2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Luis Exposito            1%       0%       1%      19%       1%       1%       0%       0%
Che-Hsuan Lin            1%       4%       0%       1%       7%       0%       0%      32%
Jose Iglesias           10%       1%       0%       0%      10%       0%       0%       0%
Aaron Bates              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Mark Wagner              1%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Oscar Tejeda             1%       0%       2%       5%       9%       1%       0%       2%
Brent Dlugach            0%       0%       0%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Niuman Romero            1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Paul Hoover              0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Daniel Bard               62%        97%        95%         0%        72%
Jonathan Papelbon         67%        97%        97%         7%        75%
Jon Lester                67%        94%        93%         4%        92%
Bobby Jenks               45%        87%        59%        22%        82%
Clay Buchholz             28%        86%         9%         0%        80%
Dennys Reyes              21%        57%        16%         1%        78%
Dan Wheeler               27%        68%        59%        17%        42%
Scott Atchison            19%        67%         9%        12%        67%
John Lackey               10%        72%         5%        11%        66%
Josh Beckett              12%        72%        71%        19%        47%
Robert Manuel             19%        71%         3%         9%        63%
Daisuke Matsuzaka         14%        70%        58%         0%        72%
Hideki Okajima            20%        66%        42%         5%        51%
Alfredo Aceves            12%        55%         2%        20%        40%
Jason Bergmann             5%        32%        33%         0%        49%
Matt Albers                4%        35%         2%         0%        73%
Tim Wakefield              7%        43%         1%         9%        43%
Tony Pena Jr.              7%        30%         3%         1%        67%
Michael Bowden             1%        28%         0%         0%        28%
Randy Williams             8%        36%        25%         0%        61%
Felix Doubront             1%        21%         1%         0%        81%
Junichi Tazawa             0%        17%         0%         3%        30%
Scott Schoeneweis         13%        40%        10%         4%        64%
Chad Paronto               4%        24%         3%         4%        55%
Jason Rice                 1%        15%        53%         0%        40%
Brandon Duckworth          1%        11%         2%         1%        38%
Rich Hill                  1%         9%        22%         0%        51%
Kyle Weiland               0%         4%         0%         0%        39%
Clevelan Santeliz          0%         7%        25%         0%        28%
Andrew Miller              0%         1%        12%         0%        69%
Adam Mills                 0%         0%         0%        34%        29%
Stolmy Pimentel            0%         1%         0%         0%        10%
Alex Wilson                0%         1%         0%         0%         8%
Matt Fox                   0%         0%         1%         1%         7%
Kason Gabbard              1%         5%         1%         0%        69%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Baltimore Orioles
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
Houston Astros
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers
Minnesota Twins
San Francisco Giants
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Chicago Cubs

Dan Szymborski Posted: February 20, 2011 at 08:18 PM | 45 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: February 20, 2011 at 08:34 PM (#3754593)
Aceves missing from sp section
   2. Darren Posted: February 20, 2011 at 08:39 PM (#3754597)
Yay!
   3. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 20, 2011 at 08:40 PM (#3754599)
Yay! I enjoy reading projections for the 2011 Red Sox, may they also play good too.

-could you run Alfredo Aceves, too, please?
-I think Mike Bowden is lined up to pitch as a reliever next year, not a starter. (He relieved in winter ball.)
-no career projection for Carl Crawford? I wanted to see how close ZiPS would get him to 3000 hits.
-terrifying top comps for Pedroia - two guys (Alfonzo and Giles) who had precisely his kind of all-around skills and All-Star production, and promptly disappeared from the earth at age 27 or so.

There isn't much I see that separates these projections from CAIRO, which also has the Sox as the best club in the league. The 690 OPS for Salty seems a little low to me (CAIRO 725), and ZiPS really hates Mike Cameron (735 OPS vs 790 in CAIRO).
   4. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 20, 2011 at 08:42 PM (#3754601)
Also, Rich Hill will be a reliever next year - he's trying to make the pen as a loogy, and has dropped his armslot to sidearm.
   5. Darren Posted: February 20, 2011 at 08:47 PM (#3754607)
Willie Aikens Boog Powell Jason Giambi

Nooooo!!!!!!!!!!!


Edgardo Alfonzo Marcus Giles Ian Kinsler


Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!
   6. Darren Posted: February 20, 2011 at 08:50 PM (#3754608)
A career projection for AGonz would be good too.
   7. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: February 20, 2011 at 08:59 PM (#3754616)
I had no idea that Alfredo Aceves has signed with the Sox until just now.
   8. Boxkutter Posted: February 20, 2011 at 09:04 PM (#3754619)
Do you happen to have a triple slash projection for Beltre around?
   9. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 20, 2011 at 09:18 PM (#3754625)
I still don't understand why the Yankees cut Aceves. Maybe it was just a fit of pique after the bike accident?

Cutting a guy with his record of performance, with options remaining, just makes no sense at all to me. So I'm looking for non-baseball explanations, basically.
   10. steagles Posted: February 20, 2011 at 09:52 PM (#3754640)
any chance the spreadsheet will be out on monday?

also, is there any chance that there can be a worksheet in there that has the defensive ratings? that'd be a nice addition considering there are players who fell through the cracks of the individual team releases.
   11. Davo Dozier Posted: February 20, 2011 at 10:04 PM (#3754648)
I haven't been following the Sox too closely this offseason--are they entering the season with Ortiz at DH, Gonzalez at 1B and Youkilis at 3b? Or is it still up in the air?
   12. Famous Original Joe C Posted: February 20, 2011 at 10:08 PM (#3754652)
I haven't been following the Sox too closely this offseason--are they entering the season with Ortiz at DH, Gonzalez at 1B and Youkilis at 3b? Or is it still up in the air?

No, that's the plan. Ortiz will get spelled against some lefties, but that's about the size of it.
   13. John DiFool2 Posted: February 20, 2011 at 10:26 PM (#3754662)
1543 RBIs might put Papi into the HoF discussion. I'll just note that it is very unlikely that he'll rack up enough future PA's at a level low enough to drop his career OPS+ from 134 (current value) to 124-over his last 3 years he's at 120, even including his crappy '09. If he does drop down that far (which by my rough figuring would mean a mere 99 OPS+ from here on out), there's no way anybody gives him enough playing time to do so. In other words the counting stats likely will be lower than above, but the rate stats would be higher. As such it is doubtful he'll accrue enough value to get him into the borderline, even if given extra credit for clutch performance/WPA/MVP voting et al; he simply got too late a start, both in terms of playing time and when he kicked things into peak form.

I'll take the overs on Ellsbury, Lowrie, and Beckett; this will likely be counterbalanced by some of the top guys dropping off a bit.
   14. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: February 20, 2011 at 11:00 PM (#3754678)
Yeah I wanted to take the over on Lowrie's overall production, Buchholz' strikeouts and Matsuzaka's walks.

I had no idea the Sox had got Kason Gabbard back, much less got him back and released him again already.

Also, I think Adrian Gonzalez might be kind of good.
   15. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: February 20, 2011 at 11:02 PM (#3754681)
Thanks dan.
9/mcoa - got me...
   16. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: February 20, 2011 at 11:39 PM (#3754696)
oh, aceves' age is off. he's 28.
   17. Austin Posted: February 21, 2011 at 12:51 AM (#3754713)
ZiPS seems to have spit out some surprisingly aggressive projections - or maybe it's just that the Red Sox really are quite a bit stronger than most teams that we've seen so far. For instance, Crawford's and Gonzalez's batting averages (which maybe don't matter a huge amount in their own right, but could inflate OBP and SLG numbers) don't immediately strike me as looking like 50th percentile projections, but perhaps ZiPS sees the Green Monster out there and tacks on a few points. The ERAs of Lester, Beckett, and Matsuzaka (and possibly Buchholz, too) give me a similar impression.
   18. Hugh Jorgan Posted: February 21, 2011 at 01:15 AM (#3754723)
I can't seem to find the blown saves projection for Papelbon...is it going to be double digits?

I love the 60BB for Dice-K, in only 126 innings..yikes!
   19. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: February 21, 2011 at 01:17 AM (#3754724)
I had no idea the Sox picked up Delgado. Minor league with NRI?
   20. tfbg9 Posted: February 21, 2011 at 01:25 AM (#3754725)
Anybody got a link to a study that compares all the projection systems?
   21. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 21, 2011 at 01:25 AM (#3754726)
I had no idea the Sox picked up Delgado. Minor league with NRI?

They signed him back in August, but he got injured quickly and is not signed with the Red Sox at the moment.
   22. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: February 21, 2011 at 01:27 AM (#3754727)
#19, I think that's a holdover from his minor-league deal with the Sox late last summer.

EDIT: Coke to the dude who put this together.
   23. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: February 21, 2011 at 01:59 AM (#3754737)
I'll take the over on Youk's OPS+, though I'd be very happy if Papi matches his projection.

This looks like a very deep team.
   24. rlc Posted: February 21, 2011 at 02:05 AM (#3754740)
1543 RBIs might put Papi into the HoF discussion. I'll just note that it is very unlikely that he'll rack up enough future PA's at a level low enough to drop his career OPS+ from 134 (current value) to 124-over his last 3 years he's at 120, even including his crappy '09.


If Ortiz with a 120 (or even a 134) OPS+ gets more serious consideration than Edgar Martinez (147 OPS+), I will be as annoyed as I was when the big, fat Dominican stole Gar's nickname.
   25. John DiFool2 Posted: February 21, 2011 at 02:20 AM (#3754749)
Oh, I would too, mind; as a Sox fan I'm simply indulging myself in some hapless whimsy. He won't go into the Hall, but he'll always be near the top of the Sox pantheon for most Boston fans.
   26. tfbg9 Posted: February 21, 2011 at 03:03 AM (#3754777)
Yeah, well they looked deep last year too.
Now that I think on it, the last 3 times the Sox have ended-up
as non-factors in the playoff picture have been all been years with
freakish injury plauges: 2001, 2006, & 2010.
   27. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: February 21, 2011 at 03:13 AM (#3754786)
For instance, Crawford's and Gonzalez's batting averages (which maybe don't matter a huge amount in their own right, but could inflate OBP and SLG numbers) don't immediately strike me as looking like 50th percentile projections, but perhaps ZiPS sees the Green Monster out there and tacks on a few points


Both come from severe pitchers' parks to a hitters park that does most of its inflation through batting average. Neither strikes me as particularly out-of-the-ordinary.
   28. alkeiper Posted: February 21, 2011 at 03:19 AM (#3754790)
Thanks to some really horrific cameo appearances, Red Sox catchers only combined for 273/330/463 last year and while they will not match that this year, the loss is smaller than many think.

That strikes me as quite acceptable production from your catchers. I'd take it.
   29. t ball Posted: February 21, 2011 at 03:35 AM (#3754794)
Have you projected Adrian Beltre yet? He hadn't signed yet when you posted the Rangers ZIPS.
   30. Walt Davis Posted: February 21, 2011 at 08:27 AM (#3754896)
That strikes me as quite acceptable production from your catchers. I'd take it.

That's kinda what Dan means. Remember, they were starting with an 884 OPS from VMart. Varitek was also pretty good last year at 766. But they got 107 PA of putrid-ness (maybe about a 450 OPS combined) including 68 PA of Kevin Cash at a sub-400 OPS.

So the projections for Varitek and Salty (about a 710 OPS combined) looks pretty horrible compared to VMart's 880 walking out the door, it's really only about a 10% drop if they can keep the putrid off the field. At least I think that's what Dan's saying.
   31. Walt Davis Posted: February 21, 2011 at 08:33 AM (#3754897)
Willie Aikens Boog Powell Jason Giambi


Nooooo!!!!!!!!!!!


Oh, don't be such a pansy. :-)

ages 29-35

Powell: 2800 PA, 129 OPS+
Giambi: 4100 PA, 163 OPS+
Aiken: toast at 29, an off-field problem or two

So hopefully AGonz doesn't start snorting coke and doesn't get as fat as Powell.
   32. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: February 21, 2011 at 01:16 PM (#3754909)
I still don't understand why the Yankees cut Aceves. Maybe it was just a fit of pique after the bike accident?


I remember some reported disagreements on rehab schedule last year. Maybe they blew up.
   33. Darren Posted: February 21, 2011 at 02:51 PM (#3754931)
Oh, don't be such a pansy. :-)


But that's my thing!

ages 29-35

Powell: 2800 PA, 129 OPS+
Giambi: 4100 PA, 163 OPS+
Aiken: toast at 29, an off-field problem or two

So hopefully AGonz doesn't start snorting coke and doesn't get as fat as Powell.


Yes, we must find some way for him to follow the Giambi path. How can we make sure he does that? ;)
   34. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: February 21, 2011 at 05:06 PM (#3755007)
Yes, we must find some way for him to follow the Giambi path. How can we make sure he does that? ;)


Send him a gold thong?
   35. James Darnell's #1 Fan Posted: February 21, 2011 at 08:28 PM (#3755197)
Ewww.

That's a nice ball club you got there...
   36. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: February 21, 2011 at 11:38 PM (#3755392)
WEEI is reporting that if the Red Sox add Andrew Miller to the big-league roster and attempts to send the pitcher back to the minors, his $3M option for 2012 is automatically picked up if another team claims him off waivers. That's some nifty contract structuring by Theo.
   37. Darren Posted: February 22, 2011 at 02:34 AM (#3755476)
Hey, how about that Lester career record? 224-104. That's a .683 winning percentage. That's top 10 all time!
   38. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: February 22, 2011 at 06:20 PM (#3755860)
Wow, Kason Gabbard! Still hangin in there!
   39. guru4u Posted: February 22, 2011 at 11:28 PM (#3756185)
The Kalish BB rate seems a bit low compared to what he did throughout the minors. I was surprised by that.
   40. Darren Posted: February 23, 2011 at 12:56 AM (#3756251)
Also there's something fishy going on with Dice's comps. Is that some kind of a joke?
   41. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 23, 2011 at 01:43 AM (#3756276)
Also there's something fishy going on with Dice's comps. Is that some kind of a joke?

No, I was quite surprised and even mentioned on Twitter that there was no "Asian" variable in ZiPS.
   42. Mickey Henry Mays Posted: February 27, 2011 at 12:26 AM (#3758921)
So Lester is the only current Sox who projects as a possible future HOF?
I don't think Papi gets in without 500HR and Adrian Gonz. career projections aren't here.
   43. Darren Posted: February 27, 2011 at 11:42 PM (#3759284)
I think a few guys project as possible HOFers (Papelbon, Pedroia, Crawford, Gonzalez, Buchholz, Beckett), but only Lester looks to be likely (even that's overstating it probably).
   44. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: February 28, 2011 at 12:28 AM (#3759306)
I just noticed that Salty is projected as Poor on defense. Does that track with his rep?
   45. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: February 28, 2011 at 01:03 AM (#3759322)
Very much so. Even before the Mackey Sasser thing he was fairly lightly regarded defensively.

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