2011 ZiPS Projections - Boston Red Sox
Right now, the Red Sox are my pick to go to the World Series (against the Phillies).
Obviously, a lot can go wrong with predictions, and while the Red Sox aren’t “beat-in-your-brains good”, they look to now be the best equipped team in the AL to handle the nasty surprises
that pop up over the course of a season. Almost every position has a suitable backup that could handle the job respectively for a month or two. Even in a tricky position like short, the
Red Sox have a ton of options before they get down to needing to call up Dlugach, Destroyer of Worlds.
No big surprises here. Catcher will be a relatively weak spot for the team, but there’s a reasonable chance of Saltalamacchia beating his projection if he his is fact recovered from his
case of Mackey Sasser Disease. Thanks to some really horrific cameo appearances, Red Sox catchers only combined for 273/330/463 last year and while they will not match that this year, the
loss is smaller than many think.
Last up: Yankees
Oracle on Twitter
Batting Projections
Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+
Adrian Gonzalez L 1B 29 .316 .407 .569 155 573 107 181 41 1 34 114 87 118 0 0 151
Carl Crawford L LF 29 .312 .359 .491 148 586 100 183 34 13 15 81 42 90 44 12 119
Kevin Youkilis R 1B 32 .280 .382 .505 122 440 73 123 30 3 21 70 64 98 5 2 129
Dustin Pedroia R 2B 27 .300 .370 .471 129 520 86 156 40 2 15 61 55 48 15 3 118
David Ortiz L DH 35 .260 .363 .509 124 450 68 117 29 1 27 83 73 113 0 1 124
J.D. Drew L RF 35 .260 .362 .473 118 400 62 104 22 3 19 56 63 91 3 2 116
Jacoby Ellsbury L CF 27 .284 .336 .397 106 426 64 121 20 5 6 39 30 55 41 7 91
Ryan Kalish L CF 23 .261 .328 .407 152 570 77 149 33 4 14 68 55 128 24 5 91
Mike Lowell R 3B 37 .269 .322 .434 91 320 34 86 20 0 11 46 26 48 1 1 95
Jed Lowrie B 2B 27 .252 .333 .422 92 306 40 77 24 2 8 42 39 65 2 1 95
Marco Scutaro R SS 35 .272 .341 .381 132 525 76 143 31 1 8 53 54 60 7 3 88
Darnell McDonald R CF 32 .255 .307 .415 119 388 45 99 25 5 9 44 28 93 11 2 86
Mike Cameron R CF 38 .243 .322 .413 83 300 39 73 19 1 10 31 33 85 3 2 90
Hector Luna R 3B 31 .260 .312 .412 116 396 52 103 20 2 12 51 27 81 5 3 88
Jason Varitek B C 39 .223 .310 .426 62 197 23 44 13 0 9 25 25 56 0 0 90
Ryan Lavarnway R C 23 .242 .320 .392 134 521 63 126 33 0 15 78 53 144 1 1 85
Daniel Nava B LF 28 .251 .330 .380 105 371 42 93 26 2 6 47 35 93 2 3 85
Nate Spears L 2B 26 .253 .325 .376 139 487 71 123 28 4 8 53 49 93 7 4 83
Lars Anderson L 1B 23 .250 .318 .386 155 580 61 145 39 2 12 67 57 152 2 2 83
Carlos Delgado L 1B 39 .244 .333 .366 12 41 5 10 2 0 1 12 4 11 0 0 83
Josh Reddick L CF 24 .255 .292 .419 148 549 61 140 33 6 15 60 29 109 7 6 83
Jordan Parraz R RF 26 .255 .327 .374 119 444 57 113 28 2 7 49 36 93 10 8 82
Drew Sutton B 2B 28 .240 .325 .362 120 409 53 98 25 2 7 43 49 111 8 4 79
Ryan Shealy R 1B 31 .225 .305 .386 78 285 30 64 17 1 9 42 30 83 0 0 79
Yamaico Navarro R SS 23 .253 .304 .378 127 479 53 121 27 3 9 57 34 97 12 7 77
Jarrod SaltalamaccB C 26 .230 .308 .382 92 317 39 73 19 1 9 38 33 99 1 1 79
Bubba Bell L RF 28 .252 .312 .358 107 405 44 102 21 2 6 41 35 81 8 4 74
Luis Exposito R C 24 .244 .295 .384 131 516 53 126 38 2 10 72 34 122 2 3 75
Che-Hsuan Lin R CF 22 .251 .326 .328 143 570 83 143 24 4 4 44 57 100 26 14 72
Jose Iglesias R SS 21 .266 .307 .344 105 398 50 106 21 5 0 24 19 95 8 6 70
Aaron Bates R LF 27 .234 .305 .341 131 492 48 115 24 1 9 49 42 139 0 1 69
Mark Wagner R C 27 .231 .287 .355 72 273 25 63 19 0 5 32 21 59 0 0 66
Oscar Tejeda R 2B 21 .246 .280 .358 144 573 62 141 30 5 8 63 29 141 12 8 65
Brent Dlugach R SS 28 .236 .277 .348 124 471 50 111 26 3 7 41 25 160 7 3 62
Niuman Romero B SS 26 .246 .299 .311 120 411 48 101 19 1 2 32 29 70 11 6 60
Paul Hoover R C 35 .211 .276 .307 69 228 20 48 12 2 2 19 19 67 0 1 52
Defensive Projections
Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF
Adrian Gonzalez AV/86
Carl Crawford EX/76
Kevin Youkilis VG/62 FR/84
Dustin Pedroia VG/63
David Ortiz PO/121
J.D. Drew VG/75
Jacoby Ellsbury VG/87 AV/48 VG/87
Ryan Kalish VG/128 AV/99 AV/128
Mike Lowell AV/111 FR/78
Jed Lowrie AV/118 AV/109 AV/90
Marco Scutaro AV/101 AV/98 AV/89 AV/114
Darnell McDonald AV/101 FR/107 VG/106
Mike Cameron AV/86
Hector Luna VG/198 AV/109 VG/103 PO/109
Jason Varitek FR
Ryan Lavarnway FR
Daniel Nava AV/106 FR/124
Nate Spears AV/110 PO/109 PO/112
Lars Anderson AV/129
Carlos Delgado FR/106
Josh Reddick AV/126 FR/157 AV/126
Jordan Parraz PO/122 AV/124
Drew Sutton VG/98 AV/125 FR/122 PO/110 AV/125 FR/107
Ryan Shealy AV/79
Yamaico Navarro AV/102 AV/103 AV/118
Jarrod Saltalamacch PO
Bubba Bell AV/107 FR/167 AV/107
Luis Exposito AV
Che-Hsuan Lin VG/154 VG/117
Jose Iglesias VG/107
Aaron Bates AV/126 AV/145
Mark Wagner AV
Oscar Tejeda VG/152 FR/109 FR/161
Brent Dlugach AV/109 AV/126
Niuman Romero AV/112 FR/79 AV/111 FR/112 AV/111
Paul Hoover FR/125
Pitching Projections - Starters
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Jon Lester L 27 3.25 18 7 31 31 202.3 177 73 16 69 214 137
Clay Buchholz R 26 3.79 14 8 29 29 166.3 158 70 15 65 128 117
John Lackey R 32 4.14 12 8 28 28 182.7 189 84 19 53 139 107
Josh Beckett R 31 4.16 10 7 25 25 158.0 160 73 19 42 151 107
Daisuke Matsuzaka R 30 4.19 9 6 22 22 126.7 120 59 12 60 117 106
Alfredo Aceves R 28 4.38 5 4 29 10 76.0 79 37 10 22 51 101
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96
Tim Wakefield R 44 4.74 7 7 24 19 123.3 132 65 16 39 75 94
Michael Bowden R 24 4.91 6 6 34 21 121.0 130 66 16 47 76 91
Felix Doubront L 23 5.13 7 8 29 22 107.0 123 61 10 53 71 87
Junichi Tazawa R 25 5.14 10 11 26 24 126.0 146 72 17 41 77 86
Brandon Duckworth R 35 5.53 4 6 23 17 99.3 115 61 13 47 60 80
Rich Hill L 31 5.65 4 6 28 13 73.3 77 46 9 59 59 79
Kyle Weiland R 24 5.82 5 8 23 22 99.0 116 64 13 56 64 76
Andrew Miller L 26 6.04 5 9 29 23 114.7 138 77 12 83 83 74
Adam Mills R 26 6.23 6 10 25 25 125.7 180 87 17 31 46 71
Stolmy Pimentel R 21 6.26 7 12 25 25 110.7 140 77 19 52 62 71
Alex Wilson R 24 6.38 3 5 21 21 84.7 104 60 15 43 49 70
Matt Fox R 28 6.48 5 10 32 21 118.0 151 85 21 60 67 69
Kason Gabbard L 29 6.96 1 3 13 7 32.3 41 25 4 29 18 64
Pitching Statistics - Relievers
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Daniel Bard R 26 3.20 3 1 64 0 70.3 56 25 7 31 81 139
Jonathan Papelbon R 30 3.20 6 2 63 0 64.7 55 23 6 21 75 139
Bobby Jenks R 30 3.69 3 2 53 0 53.7 52 22 5 16 50 121
Dennys Reyes L 34 3.92 2 1 65 0 39.0 38 18 3 18 30 113
Dan Wheeler R 33 3.93 5 3 65 0 50.3 46 22 7 15 45 113
Scott Atchison R 35 4.08 3 2 47 1 64.0 65 29 6 20 48 109
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Robert Manuel R 27 4.17 6 4 53 0 69.0 68 32 8 22 49 107
Hideki Okajima L 35 4.25 4 3 55 0 48.7 49 23 6 18 42 105
Jason Bergmann R 29 4.53 5 5 60 0 59.7 60 30 8 28 50 98
Matt Albers R 28 4.60 4 4 58 1 74.3 79 38 6 35 51 97
Tony Pena Jr. R 30 4.78 1 2 27 0 37.3 41 21 4 18 23 93
Randy Williams L 35 4.98 1 1 43 0 43.7 46 23 4 22 34 89
Scott Schoeneweis L 37 5.18 1 1 33 0 24.3 27 14 3 11 17 86
Chad Paronto R 35 5.24 2 3 45 0 56.7 67 33 6 23 33 85
Jason Rice R 25 5.53 2 3 47 0 57.0 57 35 7 45 52 80
Clevelan Santeliz R 24 6.04 2 3 40 0 51.7 53 32 6 38 40 74
Extrapolated Career Statistics
Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+
David Ortiz .271 .364 .521 2204 7966 1272 2161 561 21 463 1543 1160 1742 10 126
Dustin Pedroia .289 .354 .445 1859 7483 1177 2163 532 23 197 828 727 604 188 107
Mike Cameron .249 .336 .441 2105 7434 1136 1850 424 62 294 1022 917 2057 303 104
Carlos Delgado .280 .383 .545 2043 7311 1244 2045 485 18 473 1520 1111 1752 14 138
J.D. Drew .273 .374 .483 1990 6682 1161 1822 358 60 310 997 1050 1431 97 121
Kevin Youkilis .280 .376 .477 1597 5748 934 1610 387 35 225 889 776 1145 50 120
Marco Scutaro .265 .331 .376 1497 5417 747 1438 301 15 90 545 521 658 62 86
Jason Varitek .255 .339 .434 1643 5409 692 1377 331 13 205 787 654 1292 25 97
Jacoby Ellsbury .282 .333 .393 1056 4218 633 1189 193 44 63 387 293 510 332 88
Jarrod Saltalamacchia.232 .306 .382 923 3130 378 727 181 10 89 368 317 910 5 78
Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+
Jon Lester 224 104 0 3.53 435 432 2745 2493 1077 247 1000 2780 127
Tim Wakefield 206 184 22 4.40 637 474 3287 3222 1608 421 1226 2192 106
John Lackey 184 140 0 4.12 442 441 2840 2958 1299 296 857 2185 108
Josh Beckett 161 116 0 4.07 379 377 2361 2290 1068 279 694 2203 109
Daisuke Matsuzaka 105 76 0 4.32 262 262 1511 1435 726 158 741 1369 104
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3
Adrian Gonzalez 1B 74% 19% 5% 2% 0% Willie Aikens Boog Powell Jason Giambi
Carl Crawford LF 41% 31% 13% 9% 6% Lou Brock Kenny Lofton Andy Van Slyke
Kevin Youkilis 1B 33% 34% 17% 13% 3% Gil Hodges Ray Boone John Jaha
Dustin Pedroia 2B 68% 15% 9% 6% 2% Edgardo Alfonzo Marcus Giles Ian Kinsler
David Ortiz DH 25% 31% 18% 18% 8% Eddie Mathews Carlos Delgado Boog Powell
J.D. Drew RF 18% 26% 20% 19% 16% Charlie Maxwell Dwight Evans Bill Nicholson
Jacoby Ellsbury CF 28% 22% 27% 17% 7% Rudy Law Steve Finley Tike Redman
Ryan Kalish CF 13% 16% 26% 26% 19% Andy Tomberlin Daryl Boston LaVel Freeman
Mike Lowell 3B 5% 13% 20% 28% 34% Matt Williams Cal Ripken Art Howe
Jed Lowrie 2B 16% 15% 19% 25% 25% John Valentin Glenn Hubbard Jim Lefebvre
Marco Scutaro SS 9% 16% 31% 28% 16% Mark Loretta Edgar Renteria Billy Jurges
Darnell McDonald CF 4% 8% 22% 32% 33% Juan Samuel Lou Collier Paul Blair
Mike Cameron CF 8% 10% 20% 28% 33% Jim Edmonds Russ Morman George Hendrick
Hector Luna 3B 1% 5% 10% 23% 61% Jesus Alfaro Chuck Jackson Steve Sisco
Jason Varitek C 11% 20% 21% 27% 22% Gregg Zaun Rick Dempsey Chad Kreuter
Ryan Lavarnway C 5% 15% 21% 30% 29%Maximiliano Ramirez John Roskos Terry McGriff
Daniel Nava LF 0% 1% 3% 11% 84% Russ Morman Jeff McKnight Jeff Wetherby
Nate Spears 2B 3% 5% 10% 24% 57% Ed Giovanola Andrew Beattie Chris Pittaro
Lars Anderson 1B 0% 1% 3% 14% 82% Jon Tucker Brandon Moss Mike Rendina
Carlos Delgado 1B 1% 5% 8% 21% 65% Mike Easler Phil Cavarretta Jorge Orta
Josh Reddick CF 2% 4% 11% 23% 61% Randy Byers Shawn Abner Theron Todd
Jordan Parraz RF 0% 1% 3% 9% 87% Dave Hollins Luis Montanez Alvin Moore
Drew Sutton 2B 2% 3% 7% 20% 67% Bobby Scales Ryan RobertsYurendell de Caster
Ryan Shealy 1B 0% 1% 1% 7% 91% Carmelo Martinez Dustan Mohr Chris Widger
Yamaico Navarro SS 4% 5% 13% 24% 55% Nelson Johnson Josh Wilson Kelly Paris
Jarrod SaltalamaccC 2% 7% 14% 33% 45% Eric Helfand Kelly Shoppach John Gibbons
Bubba Bell RF 0% 1% 1% 4% 94% Rowland Office Bubba Carpenter Rich Lane
Luis Exposito C 1% 4% 9% 27% 60% Salomon Manriquez Randy Knorr Brook Fordyce
Che-Hsuan Lin CF 1% 2% 5% 15% 78% Tony Gwynn Jr. Ricki Bass Darren Lewis
Jose Iglesias SS 0% 2% 8% 20% 71% Ronny Cedeno Wil Cordero Dickie Thon
Aaron Bates LF 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% Tim Giles Glenn Carpenter Richard Johnson
Mark Wagner C 1% 2% 4% 15% 78% Bill Dobrolsky Mike Nickeas Joe Ayrault
Oscar Tejeda 2B 1% 1% 2% 5% 91% Juan Delgado George Hinshaw Danny Ainge
Brent Dlugach SS 0% 1% 3% 10% 85% Joe DeMaestri Greg Porter Nick Green
Niuman Romero SS 0% 0% 2% 8% 89% Jarrett Stotts Mark DeRosa Pat Osborn
Paul Hoover C 0% 0% 1% 4% 95% Frank Charles George Mitterwald Joe Oliver
Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3
Daniel Bard RP 45% 38% 18% Scott Garrelts Armando Benitez Rich Gossage
Jonathan Papelbon RP 67% 23% 11% Tom Henke Duane Ward Mel Rojas
Jon Lester SP 68% 23% 10%Fernando Valenzuela Sam McDowell Billy Pierce
Bobby Jenks RP 56% 34% 11% Rollie Fingers Donnie Moore Rick Aguilera
Clay Buchholz SP 25% 48% 28% Ramon Martinez Aaron Sele Jack Morris
Dennys Reyes RP 21% 45% 34% Scott Schoeneweis Scott Eyre Trever Miller
Dan Wheeler RP 27% 48% 25% Jeff Reardon Jeff Brantley Mike Trombley
Scott Atchison RP 25% 54% 22% Mike Maddux Dave Pavlas Joe Slusarski
John Lackey SP 29% 51% 19% Doug Drabek Kevin Millwood Jack McDowell
Josh Beckett SP 42% 47% 11% Javier Vazquez Pedro Astacio Jon Lieber
Robert Manuel RP 24% 52% 24% John Wasdin Jeff Shaw Steve Ontiveros
Daisuke Matsuzaka SP 38% 51% 11% Chan Ho Park David Palmer Hideo Nomo
Hideki Okajima RP 26% 47% 27% Mark Guthrie Dave LaRoche Trever Miller
Alfredo Aceves SP 15% 52% 33% Paul Quantrill Dave Ford Kris Wilson
Jason Bergmann RP 5% 34% 61% Jim Dorsey Jimmy Serrano Richie Lewis
Matt Albers RP 6% 42% 52% Tony Fiore John Riedling Mike Bumstead
Tim Wakefield SP 24% 46% 30% Tom Candiotti Woody Williams Mark Gardner
Tony Pena Jr. RP 7% 31% 62% Mike Bumstead Jake Robbins Andy Mitchell
Michael Bowden SP 9% 55% 35% Robert Toth Joel Pineiro John Martin
Randy Williams RP 12% 32% 56% Norm Charlton Dave Righetti Kevin Tolar
Felix Doubront SP 7% 46% 47% John Daniels Bill Scherrer Allan Anderson
Junichi Tazawa SP 4% 50% 46% Tony McKnight LaTroy Hawkins Justin Reid
Scott Schoeneweis RP 13% 27% 60% Dave Righetti Rheal Cormier Sparky Lyle
Chad Paronto RP 5% 23% 71% Bob Scanlan Ricky Barlow A.J. Sager
Jason Rice RP 1% 19% 80% Chris Schroder Allan Simpson Billy Sadler
Brandon Duckworth SP 4% 24% 72% Ken Hill Erik Hanson Alan Benes
Rich Hill SP 1% 13% 86% Jeff Tabaka Jon Cannon Tim Lollar
Kyle Weiland SP 1% 17% 82% Chris Carpenter Charlie Scott Matt Saier
Clevelan Santeliz RP 1% 8% 91% Michael Doyne Derek Aucoin Billy Sadler
Andrew Miller SP 0% 5% 95% Mike Wodnicki Eric Hillman Ken Vining
Adam Mills SP 0% 4% 96% Andrew Baldwin Doug Waechter Josh Towers
Stolmy Pimentel SP 0% 5% 95% Jim Blueberg Rick Bauer Ty Hartshorn
Alex Wilson SP 0% 5% 95% Steve Rogers Brandon Knight Jared Jensen
Matt Fox SP 0% 3% 97% Kip Bouknight Todd Van Poppel R.A. Dickey
Kason Gabbard SP 2% 9% 89% Kevin Pickford Eddie Oropesa Matt Thornton
Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB
Adrian Gonzalez 37% 69% 64% 6% 0% 58% 68% 0%
Carl Crawford 44% 14% 19% 1% 61% 3% 10% 95%
Kevin Youkilis 23% 55% 49% 3% 2% 10% 26% 0%
Dustin Pedroia 48% 40% 26% 28% 0% 2% 11% 6%
David Ortiz 7% 33% 51% 3% 0% 32% 22% 0%
J.D. Drew 7% 33% 25% 0% 2% 6% 10% 0%
Jacoby Ellsbury 28% 9% 3% 0% 9% 0% 1% 94%
Ryan Kalish 6% 5% 4% 10% 4% 1% 1% 25%
Mike Lowell 14% 4% 11% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Jed Lowrie 5% 10% 6% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Marco Scutaro 13% 10% 1% 5% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Darnell McDonald 4% 1% 2% 0% 6% 0% 0% 1%
Mike Cameron 3% 5% 7% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Hector Luna 5% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jason Varitek 2% 4% 11% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Ryan Lavarnway 1% 3% 2% 9% 0% 2% 1% 0%
Daniel Nava 3% 5% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Nate Spears 2% 3% 0% 2% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Lars Anderson 1% 2% 0% 27% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Carlos Delgado 17% 26% 12% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Josh Reddick 3% 0% 4% 6% 18% 1% 0% 0%
Jordan Parraz 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2%
Drew Sutton 1% 3% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Ryan Shealy 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Yamaico Navarro 3% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2%
Jarrod Saltalamacc 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bubba Bell 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Luis Exposito 1% 0% 1% 19% 1% 1% 0% 0%
Che-Hsuan Lin 1% 4% 0% 1% 7% 0% 0% 32%
Jose Iglesias 10% 1% 0% 0% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Aaron Bates 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mark Wagner 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Oscar Tejeda 1% 0% 2% 5% 9% 1% 0% 2%
Brent Dlugach 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Niuman Romero 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Paul Hoover 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1
Daniel Bard 62% 97% 95% 0% 72%
Jonathan Papelbon 67% 97% 97% 7% 75%
Jon Lester 67% 94% 93% 4% 92%
Bobby Jenks 45% 87% 59% 22% 82%
Clay Buchholz 28% 86% 9% 0% 80%
Dennys Reyes 21% 57% 16% 1% 78%
Dan Wheeler 27% 68% 59% 17% 42%
Scott Atchison 19% 67% 9% 12% 67%
John Lackey 10% 72% 5% 11% 66%
Josh Beckett 12% 72% 71% 19% 47%
Robert Manuel 19% 71% 3% 9% 63%
Daisuke Matsuzaka 14% 70% 58% 0% 72%
Hideki Okajima 20% 66% 42% 5% 51%
Alfredo Aceves 12% 55% 2% 20% 40%
Jason Bergmann 5% 32% 33% 0% 49%
Matt Albers 4% 35% 2% 0% 73%
Tim Wakefield 7% 43% 1% 9% 43%
Tony Pena Jr. 7% 30% 3% 1% 67%
Michael Bowden 1% 28% 0% 0% 28%
Randy Williams 8% 36% 25% 0% 61%
Felix Doubront 1% 21% 1% 0% 81%
Junichi Tazawa 0% 17% 0% 3% 30%
Scott Schoeneweis 13% 40% 10% 4% 64%
Chad Paronto 4% 24% 3% 4% 55%
Jason Rice 1% 15% 53% 0% 40%
Brandon Duckworth 1% 11% 2% 1% 38%
Rich Hill 1% 9% 22% 0% 51%
Kyle Weiland 0% 4% 0% 0% 39%
Clevelan Santeliz 0% 7% 25% 0% 28%
Andrew Miller 0% 1% 12% 0% 69%
Adam Mills 0% 0% 0% 34% 29%
Stolmy Pimentel 0% 1% 0% 0% 10%
Alex Wilson 0% 1% 0% 0% 8%
Matt Fox 0% 0% 1% 1% 7%
Kason Gabbard 1% 5% 1% 0% 69%
All figures in % based on projection playing time
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Baltimore Orioles
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
Houston Astros
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers
Minnesota Twins
San Francisco Giants
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Chicago Cubs
Dan Szymborski
Posted: February 20, 2011 at 08:18 PM |
45 comment(s)
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1. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: February 20, 2011 at 08:34 PM (#3754593)-could you run Alfredo Aceves, too, please?
-I think Mike Bowden is lined up to pitch as a reliever next year, not a starter. (He relieved in winter ball.)
-no career projection for Carl Crawford? I wanted to see how close ZiPS would get him to 3000 hits.
-terrifying top comps for Pedroia - two guys (Alfonzo and Giles) who had precisely his kind of all-around skills and All-Star production, and promptly disappeared from the earth at age 27 or so.
There isn't much I see that separates these projections from CAIRO, which also has the Sox as the best club in the league. The 690 OPS for Salty seems a little low to me (CAIRO 725), and ZiPS really hates Mike Cameron (735 OPS vs 790 in CAIRO).
Nooooo!!!!!!!!!!!
Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!
Cutting a guy with his record of performance, with options remaining, just makes no sense at all to me. So I'm looking for non-baseball explanations, basically.
also, is there any chance that there can be a worksheet in there that has the defensive ratings? that'd be a nice addition considering there are players who fell through the cracks of the individual team releases.
No, that's the plan. Ortiz will get spelled against some lefties, but that's about the size of it.
I'll take the overs on Ellsbury, Lowrie, and Beckett; this will likely be counterbalanced by some of the top guys dropping off a bit.
I had no idea the Sox had got Kason Gabbard back, much less got him back and released him again already.
Also, I think Adrian Gonzalez might be kind of good.
9/mcoa - got me...
I love the 60BB for Dice-K, in only 126 innings..yikes!
They signed him back in August, but he got injured quickly and is not signed with the Red Sox at the moment.
EDIT: Coke to the dude who put this together.
This looks like a very deep team.
If Ortiz with a 120 (or even a 134) OPS+ gets more serious consideration than Edgar Martinez (147 OPS+), I will be as annoyed as I was when the big, fat Dominican stole Gar's nickname.
Now that I think on it, the last 3 times the Sox have ended-up
as non-factors in the playoff picture have been all been years with
freakish injury plauges: 2001, 2006, & 2010.
Both come from severe pitchers' parks to a hitters park that does most of its inflation through batting average. Neither strikes me as particularly out-of-the-ordinary.
That strikes me as quite acceptable production from your catchers. I'd take it.
That's kinda what Dan means. Remember, they were starting with an 884 OPS from VMart. Varitek was also pretty good last year at 766. But they got 107 PA of putrid-ness (maybe about a 450 OPS combined) including 68 PA of Kevin Cash at a sub-400 OPS.
So the projections for Varitek and Salty (about a 710 OPS combined) looks pretty horrible compared to VMart's 880 walking out the door, it's really only about a 10% drop if they can keep the putrid off the field. At least I think that's what Dan's saying.
Nooooo!!!!!!!!!!!
Oh, don't be such a pansy. :-)
ages 29-35
Powell: 2800 PA, 129 OPS+
Giambi: 4100 PA, 163 OPS+
Aiken: toast at 29, an off-field problem or two
So hopefully AGonz doesn't start snorting coke and doesn't get as fat as Powell.
I remember some reported disagreements on rehab schedule last year. Maybe they blew up.
But that's my thing!
Yes, we must find some way for him to follow the Giambi path. How can we make sure he does that? ;)
Send him a gold thong?
That's a nice ball club you got there...
No, I was quite surprised and even mentioned on Twitter that there was no "Asian" variable in ZiPS.
I don't think Papi gets in without 500HR and Adrian Gonz. career projections aren't here.
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