2011 ZiPS Projections - Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are a surprisingly decent team with a knack for misfortune. What doesn’t help the organization is that there seems to be this strange obsession is the simply odd usage of what
they have at times (though I won’t fault them too much for the handling of the departed Hoffpauir - he was a terrible pinch-hitter). Maybe the Jim Hendry robot is run with an early beta of
Watson that was pretty much sort of OK, but would have the hilarious blooper. You’ll nod and say “Byrd was quietly good and the organization pushed Castro aggressively and let Soto show a
few years ago that his improvement was real,” but then you watch HENDRY declare “BREAD IS FOR PANTS. JEFF SAMARDZIJA IS A STAR. ERROR DATABASE REFERENCE NOT FOUND.” Or maybe “BRETT
JACKSON IS A GOOD PROSPECT AND VITTERS ISN’T DONE YET *spark* HOLY CRAP CARLOS ZAMBRANO APRIL AWFUL HE FORGOT HOW TO PITCH.”
On a completely irrelevant note, I’m a little disappointed that Carl Everett never got to play on the same team as Darwin Barney. A combination of the guy who wrote The Origin of Species
and a dinosaur? Short of a guy named Apebegat Adam, I can’t think of a less Everett-friendly name.
Overall, I’d put the Cubs a smidgen behind the other 3 non-also-rans, mostly because the offense is old enough that it could get ugly fast and the Cubs have little payroll flexibility left (and the guys most likely to need replace are unlikely to be benched).
Next up: Red Sox
Oracle on Twitter
Batting Projections
Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+
Carlos Pena L 1B 33 .239 .363 .508 129 443 72 106 22 2 31 88 81 139 3 1 126
Geovany Soto R C 28 .261 .357 .466 116 380 49 99 22 1 18 65 59 97 0 1 115
Aramis Ramirez R 3B 33 .272 .339 .461 116 434 62 118 23 1 19 81 40 71 1 1 108
Alfonso Soriano R LF 35 .257 .314 .472 121 460 65 118 29 2 22 67 37 109 9 2 103
Marlon Byrd R CF 33 .283 .336 .430 142 530 72 150 34 4 12 67 33 86 6 3 100
Micah Hoffpauir L 1B 31 .258 .315 .455 122 396 59 102 26 2 16 72 32 73 2 0 100
Starlin Castro R SS 21 .294 .340 .409 156 589 73 173 35 9 5 64 37 83 20 14 96
Brett Jackson L CF 22 .260 .340 .405 137 558 97 145 21 9 14 70 57 163 25 9 95
Bryan LaHair L LF 28 .262 .321 .440 129 473 64 124 28 1 18 70 40 117 1 3 98
Kosuke Fukudome L RF 34 .251 .356 .405 127 398 56 100 22 3 11 46 66 83 7 7 100
Brad Snyder L RF 29 .251 .306 .442 113 398 59 100 23 4 15 63 31 115 12 4 94
Marquez Smith R 3B 26 .251 .308 .423 124 442 60 111 27 2 15 59 34 110 3 1 90
Tyler Colvin L RF 25 .252 .299 .433 152 504 71 127 24 8 17 70 33 126 8 3 90
Scott Moore L 3B 27 .249 .308 .423 88 293 39 73 14 2 11 48 22 66 4 2 90
Blake DeWitt L 2B 25 .261 .326 .395 153 521 59 136 26 7 10 63 48 82 3 2 89
Jason Dubois R LF 32 .238 .302 .436 94 303 40 72 13 1 15 48 24 94 1 1 91
Luis Montanez R LF 29 .275 .310 .403 79 273 37 75 13 2 6 39 13 41 3 2 86
Jeff Baker R 3B 30 .253 .307 .400 92 245 35 62 14 2 6 28 19 61 2 0 84
Bobby Scales B 2B 33 .248 .338 .376 124 399 57 99 21 3 8 46 50 87 7 5 88
Steve Clevenger L C 25 .277 .327 .373 115 375 38 104 23 2 3 46 27 53 4 5 84
Josh Vitters R 3B 21 .256 .292 .406 128 480 58 123 26 2 14 57 18 102 7 2 81
Max Ramirez R C 26 .239 .319 .371 94 326 35 78 14 1 9 47 36 98 1 1 78
Welington CastilloR C 24 .244 .290 .404 105 361 38 88 20 1 12 54 19 94 1 2 81
Reed Johnson R LF 34 .254 .304 .355 91 228 31 59 12 1 3 24 10 47 7 2 72
Darwin Barney R SS 25 .270 .309 .342 151 555 71 150 26 4 2 51 31 74 9 3 71
Fernando Perez R RF 28 .243 .300 .332 105 371 51 90 11 5 4 26 29 99 23 8 63
Matt Camp L 2B 27 .259 .311 .318 134 478 56 124 16 3 2 44 33 59 17 6 66
James Adduci L CF 26 .251 .308 .314 133 474 63 119 15 3 3 42 38 110 22 9 65
Koyie Hill B C 32 .224 .277 .331 88 263 25 59 14 1 4 28 19 70 1 1 59
Augie Ojeda B 2B 36 .212 .294 .261 78 165 19 35 6 1 0 12 16 18 1 1 45
Defensive Projections
Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF
Carlos Pena AV/91
Geovany Soto FR
Aramis Ramirez FR/116
Alfonso Soriano VG/200
Marlon Byrd AV/71 AV/111 AV/136
Micah Hoffpauir FR/119 FR/121 FR/122
Starlin Castro VG/180
Brett Jackson VG/118 AV/136 VG/118
Bryan LaHair FR/91 AV/80 FR/80
Kosuke Fukudome PO/92 AV/80
Brad Snyder AV/88 PO/138 AV/88
Marquez Smith FR/116 AV/113
Tyler Colvin AV/78 AV/113 AV/150
Scott Moore VG/116 PO/119 PO/124 PO/125
Blake DeWitt FR/114 VG/80 FR/120
Jason Dubois PO/113 PO/128 PO/128
Luis Montanez FR/135 PO/108 FR/143
Jeff Baker AV/103 AV/90 VG/112 AV/120
Bobby Scales AV/87 PO/111 FR/125 AV/109 AV/109
Steve Clevenger FR FR/103
Josh Vitters FR/136
Max Ramirez PO
Welington Castillo VG
Reed Johnson AV/83 AV/93 AV/83
Darwin Barney AV/139 VG/106 AV/125
Fernando Perez VG/100 VG/166 VG/144
Matt Camp AV/120 AV/105 PO/106 AV/117 FR/82 AV/107
James Adduci VG/112 AV/110 VG/112
Koyie Hill AV AV/117
Augie Ojeda VG/68 VG/116 AV/114
Pitching Projections - Starters
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Carlos Zambrano R 30 3.72 11 7 26 26 154.7 144 64 11 71 130 117
Ryan Dempster R 34 3.75 13 8 30 30 187.0 174 78 19 71 169 116
Matt Garza R 27 3.98 13 10 34 33 208.0 196 92 27 67 164 109
Randy Wells R 28 4.00 12 9 29 29 175.7 180 78 18 54 122 109
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96
Carlos Silva R 32 4.79 6 7 19 19 99.7 112 53 12 24 58 91
Todd Wellemeyer R 32 4.93 6 8 22 19 107.0 1122 61 17 51 75 85
Jay Jackson R 23 4.96 8 9 28 24 134.3 141 74 21 54 93 88
Casey Coleman R 23 4.98 9 11 28 26 142.7 155 79 16 62 66 87
Christopher CarpenR 25 5.02 6 7 26 26 122.0 132 68 13 71 81 87
Christopher ArcherR 22 5.08 6 8 28 27 113.3 110 64 10 98 89 86
Braden Looper R 36 5.18 6 8 20 20 116.3 134 67 19 36 56 84
Jeff Samardzija R 26 5.37 6 9 42 18 120.7 126 72 17 77 83 81
Thomas Diamond R 28 5.38 4 5 30 14 85.3 88 51 11 59 67 81
Austin Bibens-DirkR 26 5.40 5 6 25 14 86.7 95 52 14 38 51 81
Rafael Dolis R 23 5.48 5 8 22 21 88.7 98 54 9 62 50 79
Esmailin Caridad R 27 5.53 4 6 26 14 81.3 91 50 14 33 51 79
Polin Trinidad L 26 5.56 7 11 27 25 149.0 180 92 23 45 78 78
Alberto Cabrera R 22 5.56 5 8 28 19 113.3 132 70 12 67 70 78
J. R. Mathes L 29 5.63 6 10 23 21 116.7 150 73 18 28 42 77
Pitching Statistics - Relievers
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Carlos Marmol R 28 2.76 4 1 79 0 78.3 49 24 5 51 118 158
Sean Marshall L 28 3.21 6 3 72 0 67.3 58 24 6 24 71 136
Kerry Wood R 34 3.46 5 2 53 0 52.0 43 20 5 25 60 126
Andrew Cashner R 24 3.84 4 3 71 0 68.0 62 29 6 34 59 113
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Angel Guzman R 29 4.15 2 1 25 0 30.3 28 14 3 12 25 105
John Grabow L 32 4.35 2 2 51 0 49.7 47 24 6 25 42 100
Jeff Stevens R 27 4.55 2 2 50 0 59.3 55 30 7 38 53 96
Bob Howry R 37 4.70 3 3 47 0 46.0 49 24 6 15 32 93
John Gaub L 26 4.78 3 3 38 0 43.3 39 23 5 35 45 91
Justin Berg R 27 4.78 3 4 55 0 64.0 67 34 6 34 32 91
Scott Maine L 26 4.84 3 4 47 0 57.7 60 31 7 31 45 90
Scott Rice L 29 4.96 2 2 45 0 49.0 51 27 4 32 30 88
Marcos Mateo R 27 5.25 2 3 37 9 72.0 79 42 10 36 54 83
Robert Coello R 26 5.42 5 7 35 8 84.7 83 51 14 56 77 80
James Russell L 25 5.85 3 5 44 9 84.7 99 55 18 30 56 74
Kyle Smit R 23 6.03 4 7 35 5 62.7 76 42 10 33 37 72
Extrapolated Career Statistics
Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+
Aramis Ramirez .276 .335 .480 2109 7910 1074 2183 445 24 373 1399 631 1199 19 108
Alfonso Soriano .270 .319 .496 1991 7909 1195 2134 499 35 406 1118 520 1739 296 109
Marlon Byrd .277 .332 .414 1612 5788 782 1605 341 41 123 700 381 975 69 95
Geovany Soto .255 .344 .437 1494 4936 574 1261 284 11 197 761 683 1064 1 103
Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+
Carlos Zambrano 201 132 0 3.71 499 479 2941 2640 1211 234 1381 2466 119
Ryan Dempster 177 155 87 4.26 661 436 2935 2871 1389 325 1301 2518 102
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3
Carlos Pena 1B 16% 29% 21% 22% 12% John Mayberry Jay Buhner Matt Stairs
Geovany Soto C 39% 35% 15% 9% 2% Frankie Hayes Charles Johnson Rick Wilkins
Aramis Ramirez 3B 13% 24% 25% 23% 15% Vern Stephens Jeff Manto Graig Nettles
Alfonso Soriano LF 6% 16% 18% 25% 35% Phil Hiatt Jeffrey Leonard Kevin Young
Marlon Byrd CF 9% 16% 30% 29% 17% Hector Lopez Aaron Rowand Gary Ward
Micah Hoffpauir 1B 2% 9% 15% 36% 38% George Canale John Valle Hank Blalock
Starlin Castro SS 9% 17% 28% 26% 20% Derek Jeter Robin Yount Frankie Gustine
Brett Jackson CF 15% 15% 26% 25% 19% Stan Javier Grady Sizemore Ray Lankford
Bryan LaHair LF 2% 8% 13% 24% 54% Chris Wakeland Dan Briggs Jim Adduci
Kosuke Fukudome RF 1% 6% 10% 20% 64% Bobby Higginson Larry Sutton Von Hayes
Brad Snyder RF 3% 11% 14% 23% 48% Chris Jones Brant Brown Andy Tomberlin
Marquez Smith 3B 2% 9% 18% 28% 43% Lou Lucca Les Pearsey Rey Palacios
Tyler Colvin RF 1% 5% 8% 17% 69% Mike Patterson John Skurla Al Martin
Scott Moore 3B 3% 9% 16% 27% 45% Matt Macri Tim Olson Glenn Williams
Blake DeWitt 2B 4% 6% 11% 25% 54% Ed Giovanola Russ Adams Chris Pittaro
Jason Dubois LF 1% 4% 9% 21% 64% J.R. Phillips Ernie Young Kurt Airoso
Luis Montanez LF 1% 2% 4% 13% 80% Nick Alvarez Mike Stoner Jeremy Ware
Jeff Baker 3B 1% 5% 11% 22% 61% Kurt Abbott Tim Hulett Nick Green
Bobby Scales 2B 8% 8% 12% 23% 48% Nelson Liriano Jed Hansen Jeff Blauser
Steve Clevenger C 1% 6% 15% 34% 43% James Durrman Russ Nixon A.J. Pierzynski
Josh Vitters 3B 2% 6% 10% 17% 65% Wes Helms Charlie Hayes Tim Holland
Max Ramirez C 4% 9% 16% 33% 38% John Gibbons Dusty Brown
Welington CastilloC 2% 7% 13% 28% 49% Craig Faulkner Gilberto Reyes Pat Borders
Reed Johnson LF 0% 1% 2% 7% 90% Gary Ward Shane Spencer Chad Allen
Darwin Barney SS 0% 2% 9% 26% 63% Jose Munoz Gus Polidor Pedro Chavez
Fernando Perez RF 0% 0% 0% 2% 98% Andres Torres Cecil Espy Tony Triplett
Matt Camp 2B 0% 1% 2% 8% 90% Kevin Hooper Mark Sheehy Donovan Mitchell
James Adduci CF 0% 0% 1% 7% 91% Quintin Berry Carl Loadenthal Curtis Goodwin
Koyie Hill C 0% 0% 2% 7% 90% Paul Hoover George Mitterwald Frank Charles
Augie Ojeda 2B 0% 0% 0% 1% 98% Rene Gonzales Craig Counsell Dal Maxvill
Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3
Carlos Marmol RP 84% 10% 5% Jim Kern Armando Benitez Scott Williamson
Sean Marshall RP 68% 26% 6% Dave Righetti Joe Sambito Norm Charlton
Kerry Wood RP 57% 36% 8% Juan Berenguer Jason Kershner Curt Leskanic
Carlos Zambrano SP 67% 28% 5% Bobo Newsom David Palmer Pat Malone
Ryan Dempster SP 63% 30% 7% Todd Stottlemyre Dave Burba Bert Blyleven
Andrew Cashner RP 33% 51% 16% Ryan Bukvich Mark Littell Alejandro Pena
Matt Garza SP 45% 48% 7% Pete Smith Brett Tomko Cal Eldred
Randy Wells SP 44% 47% 10% Jeff Weaver Sidney Ponson Kyle Lohse
Angel Guzman RP 29% 43% 28% Vinnie Chulk Woody Williams Rocky Cherry
John Grabow RP 21% 46% 33% J.C. Romero Brian Snyder Kevin Tolar
Jeff Stevens RP 8% 47% 45% Bryce Florie Bart Miadich Calvin Jones
Bob Howry RP 12% 38% 50% Dave Pavlas Rick White Matt Whiteside
John Gaub RP 8% 40% 52% Brian Fuentes Tyler Johnson Armando Almanza
Justin Berg RP 6% 35% 59% Jimmy Myers Jim Dickson Tom McCarthy
Carlos Silva SP 16% 46% 38% Josh Towers Dave Eiland Esteban Loaiza
Scott Maine RP 7% 39% 54% Tim Byrdak Rob Murphy Bryan Duquette
Todd Wellemeyer SP 6% 34% 60% Chan Ho Park Cal Eldred Jackson Todd
Jay Jackson SP 6% 47% 47% Scott Klingenbeck Mark Clark Eric Ireland
Scott Rice RP 9% 34% 57% Jim Brewer Jim Roland Dan McGinn
Casey Coleman SP 6% 49% 44% Jose Jimenez Don Welchel Mike Nagy
Christopher CarpenSP 5% 46% 50% Kevin Ritz Bill Mooneyham Denny Bautista
Christopher ArcherSP 4% 39% 56% Colin McLaughlin Eric Hetzel Donnie Elliott
Braden Looper SP 6% 29% 65% Bill Gullickson Dennis Springer Tim Kester
Marcos Mateo RP 1% 21% 78% John Pawlowski Travis Hughes Jason Shiell
Jeff Samardzija SP 0% 12% 88% Jeff Cornell Kevin Pincavitch Tom McCarthy
Thomas Diamond SP 0% 15% 85% Dennis Sarfate Rich Dorman Kevin Gallaher
Austin Bibens-DirkSP 4% 27% 69% Ryan Baerlocher Doug Sessions Rob Radlosky
Robert Coello RP 0% 18% 82% Terry Felton Dave Shipanoff Mike James
Rafael Dolis SP 3% 25% 72% Rick Berg Jesus Silva Ben Hendrickson
Esmailin Caridad SP 2% 24% 74% Pat Rice Mike Wilkins Greg Beck
Polin Trinidad SP 0% 20% 80% Brian Shouse Randy Leek Mike Ramsey
Alberto Cabrera SP 1% 21% 78% Ricky Steik Jason Phillips Blaine Boyer
Mike Parisi SP 9% 25% 66% Jason Secoda Kip Bouknight Dennis Tankersley
J. R. Mathes SP 2% 21% 78% Mike Maroth Scott Downs Randy Leek
James Russell RP 0% 7% 93% Brady Borner Dana Allison Roberto Rivera
Kyle Smit RP 0% 7% 93% Jim Dorsey Kevin Mobley Kevin Gryboski
Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB
Carlos Pena 0% 19% 23% 0% 0% 44% 12% 0%
Geovany Soto 8% 26% 22% 0% 0% 3% 6% 0%
Aramis Ramirez 14% 11% 21% 0% 0% 5% 4% 0%
Alfonso Soriano 4% 1% 25% 1% 1% 13% 2% 1%
Marlon Byrd 23% 7% 3% 8% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Micah Hoffpauir 4% 1% 12% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0%
Starlin Castro 38% 8% 1% 23% 43% 0% 0% 16%
Brett Jackson 6% 10% 4% 0% 42% 3% 2% 23%
Bryan LaHair 5% 2% 6% 1% 0% 3% 1% 0%
Kosuke Fukudome 3% 24% 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1%
Brad Snyder 2% 1% 11% 0% 2% 1% 0% 2%
Marquez Smith 2% 1% 4% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0%
Tyler Colvin 3% 1% 8% 0% 29% 3% 0% 0%
Scott Moore 4% 2% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Blake DeWitt 4% 2% 1% 1% 20% 0% 0% 0%
Jason Dubois 1% 1% 6% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Luis Montanez 19% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Jeff Baker 7% 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Bobby Scales 3% 12% 2% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0%
Steve Clevenger 18% 4% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Josh Vitters 4% 0% 7% 1% 1% 4% 1% 1%
Max Ramirez 2% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Welington Castillo 2% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Reed Johnson 8% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Darwin Barney 10% 0% 0% 2% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Fernando Perez 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 13%
Matt Camp 3% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 7%
James Adduci 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 12%
Koyie Hill 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Augie Ojeda 2% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1
Carlos Marmol 85% 91% 99% 0% 96%
Sean Marshall 65% 95% 89% 4% 86%
Kerry Wood 48% 82% 97% 0% 76%
Carlos Zambrano 27% 85% 31% 0% 95%
Ryan Dempster 26% 82% 56% 0% 67%
Andrew Cashner 26% 79% 39% 0% 83%
Matt Garza 12% 79% 21% 2% 41%
Randy Wells 11% 77% 2% 4% 74%
Angel Guzman 29% 62% 26% 7% 55%
John Grabow 15% 59% 31% 0% 67%
Jeff Stevens 8% 40% 47% 0% 59%
Bob Howry 12% 42% 6% 15% 43%
John Gaub 8% 40% 79% 0% 68%
Justin Berg 4% 34% 0% 0% 70%
Carlos Silva 4% 34% 2% 44% 45%
Scott Maine 5% 38% 11% 0% 49%
Todd Wellemeyer 2% 16% 3% 0% 25%
Jay Jackson 1% 19% 1% 0% 16%
Scott Rice 6% 29% 3% 0% 77%
Casey Coleman 1% 21% 0% 0% 54%
Christopher Carpen 0% 17% 1% 0% 73%
Christopher Archer 1% 16% 15% 0% 83%
Braden Looper 2% 15% 0% 11% 20%
Marcos Mateo 1% 17% 8% 0% 32%
Jeff Samardzija 0% 6% 1% 0% 25%
Thomas Diamond 0% 9% 14% 0% 38%
Austin Bibens-Dirk 0% 11% 1% 0% 20%
Robert Coello 0% 11% 57% 0% 11%
Rafael Dolis 0% 10% 0% 0% 74%
Esmailin Caridad 0% 8% 0% 0% 11%
Polin Trinidad 0% 3% 0% 6% 17%
Alberto Cabrera 0% 5% 0% 0% 66%
Mike Parisi 3% 19% 1% 2% 54%
J. R. Mathes 0% 5% 0% 43% 22%
James Russell 0% 4% 0% 3% 2%
Kyle Smit 0% 3% 0% 0% 28%
All figures in % based on projection playing time
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Baltimore Orioles
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
Houston Astros
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers
Minnesota Twins
San Francisco Giants
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Dan Szymborski
Posted: February 19, 2011 at 06:50 AM |
46 comment(s)
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1. McCoy Wilfong for Money Posted: February 19, 2011 at 07:01 AM (#3753960)But you didn't even mention what you think about the Carlos Peña! ZiPS sure is bullish on him though.
I assume ZiPS is getting thrown by Z's odd usage the last couple of years because those are kinda odd comps.
Darwin Barney is probably my favorite name in baseball.
Seriously, quite impressive first couple of comps
any chance of a Gorzelanny projection? He's one of the lost boys, between the Cubbies and the Nats. If not that's alright as well, thanks!
I was hoping for more from Garza than a Randy Wells clone. Particularly since that's a batch of very poor projections from Chicago's sixth starter candidates.
Also, I was hoping Marquez Smith would project as a reasonable major leaguer.
The Brett Jackson projection is nice.
What folks forget is that Robin could have chosen different pro sport paths. He was really torn between golf and baseball as one example. So at 20 he was rangy kid in the middle of the diamond with a good arm acting on instinct and reflex.
He made himself into a great player and the best baserunner of his generation. Just a marvel
Starlin is fun to watch. The rest of that team? Not so much
Just imagine how bad he'd be without his four bionic fingers.
i'd like to second these requests. i'm very curious as to what chirinos looks like considering his time around the IF.
For 2010. Cots has the Phillies payroll for 2011 currently at 161.9m$, 600k less than the Red Sox. (I checked like a week ago, I don't think either team has done anything since then).
Gorzelanny is projected at 8-9, 4.38 (ERA+ 95) for Washington.
Note that the spreadsheet will be out in about a week!
Dan, did you take down the zMLE file or did it just mess up as I tried to access it the other day and it said it wasn't available.
I think he's better than the projection suggests (on O and D) ... which is different than faulting the projections (his #s weren't special (on O) before last year).
Probably a product of me knowing Yount more through Bill James than personal experience (aside from the tail end of his career in the early 90s), but being torn between baseball and golf is the only personal detail I know about Yount, aside from him just being generally proficient at baseball.
Based on K/9, your top candidate would seem to be Jim Kern given the initials.
Of course it could be some minor leaguer's MLEs I suppose.
I think I read recently that he's going back to switch hitting this year. Hope he's healthy this year and gets back on track.
chirinos: guess we'll see in a week. i'd guess fr arm, possibly av.
Also, Soriano has at least one spectacular misplay a week, so those are always fresh in everyone's mind. It's hard to argue with balls that he gets to, but the argument is that he doesn't get to many that he should.
Also, he's really, really, really overpaid.
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