Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, February 19, 2011

2011 ZiPS Projections - Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are a surprisingly decent team with a knack for misfortune.  What doesn’t help the organization is that there seems to be this strange obsession is the simply odd usage of what

they have at times (though I won’t fault them too much for the handling of the departed Hoffpauir - he was a terrible pinch-hitter).  Maybe the Jim Hendry robot is run with an early beta of

Watson that was pretty much sort of OK, but would have the hilarious blooper.  You’ll nod and say “Byrd was quietly good and the organization pushed Castro aggressively and let Soto show a

few years ago that his improvement was real,” but then you watch HENDRY declare “BREAD IS FOR PANTS.  JEFF SAMARDZIJA IS A STAR.  ERROR DATABASE REFERENCE NOT FOUND.”  Or maybe “BRETT

JACKSON IS A GOOD PROSPECT AND VITTERS ISN’T DONE YET *spark* HOLY CRAP CARLOS ZAMBRANO APRIL AWFUL HE FORGOT HOW TO PITCH.”

On a completely irrelevant note, I’m a little disappointed that Carl Everett never got to play on the same team as Darwin Barney.  A combination of the guy who wrote The Origin of Species

and a dinosaur?  Short of a guy named Apebegat Adam, I can’t think of a less Everett-friendly name.

Overall, I’d put the Cubs a smidgen behind the other 3 non-also-rans, mostly because the offense is old enough that it could get ugly fast and the Cubs have little payroll flexibility left (and the guys most likely to need replace are unlikely to be benched).

Next up:  Red Sox

Oracle on Twitter


Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Carlos Pena       L    1B   33   .239 .363 .508 129 443  72 106  22   2  31  88  81 139   3   1  126
Geovany Soto      R    C    28   .261 .357 .466 116 380  49  99  22   1  18  65  59  97   0   1  115
Aramis Ramirez    R    3B   33   .272 .339 .461 116 434  62 118  23   1  19  81  40  71   1   1  108
Alfonso Soriano   R    LF   35   .257 .314 .472 121 460  65 118  29   2  22  67  37 109   9   2  103
Marlon Byrd       R    CF   33   .283 .336 .430 142 530  72 150  34   4  12  67  33  86   6   3  100
Micah Hoffpauir   L    1B   31   .258 .315 .455 122 396  59 102  26   2  16  72  32  73   2   0  100
Starlin Castro    R    SS   21   .294 .340 .409 156 589  73 173  35   9   5  64  37  83  20  14   96
Brett Jackson     L    CF   22   .260 .340 .405 137 558  97 145  21   9  14  70  57 163  25   9   95
Bryan LaHair      L    LF   28   .262 .321 .440 129 473  64 124  28   1  18  70  40 117   1   3   98
Kosuke Fukudome   L    RF   34   .251 .356 .405 127 398  56 100  22   3  11  46  66  83   7   7  100
Brad Snyder       L    RF   29   .251 .306 .442 113 398  59 100  23   4  15  63  31 115  12   4   94
Marquez Smith     R    3B   26   .251 .308 .423 124 442  60 111  27   2  15  59  34 110   3   1   90
Tyler Colvin      L    RF   25   .252 .299 .433 152 504  71 127  24   8  17  70  33 126   8   3   90
Scott Moore       L    3B   27   .249 .308 .423  88 293  39  73  14   2  11  48  22  66   4   2   90
Blake DeWitt      L    2B   25   .261 .326 .395 153 521  59 136  26   7  10  63  48  82   3   2   89
Jason Dubois      R    LF   32   .238 .302 .436  94 303  40  72  13   1  15  48  24  94   1   1   91
Luis Montanez     R    LF   29   .275 .310 .403  79 273  37  75  13   2   6  39  13  41   3   2   86
Jeff Baker        R    3B   30   .253 .307 .400  92 245  35  62  14   2   6  28  19  61   2   0   84
Bobby Scales      B    2B   33   .248 .338 .376 124 399  57  99  21   3   8  46  50  87   7   5   88
Steve Clevenger   L    C    25   .277 .327 .373 115 375  38 104  23   2   3  46  27  53   4   5   84
Josh Vitters      R    3B   21   .256 .292 .406 128 480  58 123  26   2  14  57  18 102   7   2   81
Max Ramirez       R    C    26   .239 .319 .371  94 326  35  78  14   1   9  47  36  98   1   1   78
Welington CastilloR    C    24   .244 .290 .404 105 361  38  88  20   1  12  54  19  94   1   2   81
Reed Johnson      R    LF   34   .254 .304 .355  91 228  31  59  12   1   3  24  10  47   7   2   72
Darwin Barney     R    SS   25   .270 .309 .342 151 555  71 150  26   4   2  51  31  74   9   3   71
Fernando Perez    R    RF   28   .243 .300 .332 105 371  51  90  11   5   4  26  29  99  23   8   63
Matt Camp         L    2B   27   .259 .311 .318 134 478  56 124  16   3   2  44  33  59  17   6   66
James Adduci      L    CF   26   .251 .308 .314 133 474  63 119  15   3   3  42  38 110  22   9   65
Koyie Hill        B    C    32   .224 .277 .331  88 263  25  59  14   1   4  28  19  70   1   1   59
Augie Ojeda       B    2B   36   .212 .294 .261  78 165  19  35   6   1   0  12  16  18   1   1   45

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Carlos Pena                   AV/91
Geovany Soto             FR
Aramis Ramirez                               FR/116
Alfonso Soriano                                              VG/200
Marlon Byrd                                                   AV/71  AV/111  AV/136
Micah Hoffpauir              FR/119                          FR/121          FR/122
Starlin Castro                                       VG/180
Brett Jackson                                                VG/118  AV/136  VG/118
Bryan LaHair                  FR/91                           AV/80           FR/80
Kosuke Fukudome                                                       PO/92   AV/80
Brad Snyder                                                   AV/88  PO/138   AV/88
Marquez Smith                        FR/116  AV/113
Tyler Colvin                                                  AV/78  AV/113  AV/150
Scott Moore                  VG/116  PO/119  PO/124  PO/125
Blake DeWitt                         FR/114   VG/80  FR/120
Jason Dubois                 PO/113                          PO/128          PO/128
Luis Montanez                                                FR/135  PO/108  FR/143
Jeff Baker                   AV/103   AV/90  VG/112                          AV/120
Bobby Scales                  AV/87  PO/111  FR/125          AV/109          AV/109
Steve Clevenger          FR  FR/103
Josh Vitters                                 FR/136
Max Ramirez              PO
Welington Castillo       VG
Reed Johnson                                                  AV/83   AV/93   AV/83
Darwin Barney                        AV/139  VG/106  AV/125
Fernando Perez                                               VG/100  VG/166  VG/144
Matt Camp                            AV/120  AV/105  PO/106  AV/117   FR/82  AV/107
James Adduci                                                 VG/112  AV/110  VG/112
Koyie Hill               AV  AV/117
Augie Ojeda                           VG/68  VG/116  AV/114

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Carlos Zambrano   R      30     3.72    11    7   26   26   154.7  144   64   11   71  130   117
Ryan Dempster     R      34     3.75    13    8   30   30   187.0  174   78   19   71  169   116
Matt Garza        R      27     3.98    13   10   34   33   208.0  196   92   27   67  164   109
Randy Wells       R      28     4.00    12    9   29   29   175.7  180   78   18   54  122   109
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Carlos Silva      R      32     4.79     6    7   19   19    99.7  112   53   12   24   58    91
Todd Wellemeyer   R      32     4.93     6    8   22   19   107.0 1122   61   17   51   75    85
Jay Jackson       R      23     4.96     8    9   28   24   134.3  141   74   21   54   93    88
Casey Coleman     R      23     4.98     9   11   28   26   142.7  155   79   16   62   66    87
Christopher CarpenR      25     5.02     6    7   26   26   122.0  132   68   13   71   81    87
Christopher ArcherR      22     5.08     6    8   28   27   113.3  110   64   10   98   89    86
Braden Looper     R      36     5.18     6    8   20   20   116.3  134   67   19   36   56    84
Jeff Samardzija   R      26     5.37     6    9   42   18   120.7  126   72   17   77   83    81
Thomas Diamond    R      28     5.38     4    5   30   14    85.3   88   51   11   59   67    81
Austin Bibens-DirkR      26     5.40     5    6   25   14    86.7   95   52   14   38   51    81
Rafael Dolis      R      23     5.48     5    8   22   21    88.7   98   54    9   62   50    79
Esmailin Caridad  R      27     5.53     4    6   26   14    81.3   91   50   14   33   51    79
Polin Trinidad    L      26     5.56     7   11   27   25   149.0  180   92   23   45   78    78
Alberto Cabrera   R      22     5.56     5    8   28   19   113.3  132   70   12   67   70    78
J. R. Mathes      L      29     5.63     6   10   23   21   116.7  150   73   18   28   42    77

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Carlos Marmol     R      28     2.76     4    1   79    0    78.3   49   24    5   51  118   158
Sean Marshall     L      28     3.21     6    3   72    0    67.3   58   24    6   24   71   136
Kerry Wood        R      34     3.46     5    2   53    0    52.0   43   20    5   25   60   126
Andrew Cashner    R      24     3.84     4    3   71    0    68.0   62   29    6   34   59   113
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Angel Guzman      R      29     4.15     2    1   25    0    30.3   28   14    3   12   25   105
John Grabow       L      32     4.35     2    2   51    0    49.7   47   24    6   25   42   100
Jeff Stevens      R      27     4.55     2    2   50    0    59.3   55   30    7   38   53    96
Bob Howry         R      37     4.70     3    3   47    0    46.0   49   24    6   15   32    93
John Gaub         L      26     4.78     3    3   38    0    43.3   39   23    5   35   45    91
Justin Berg       R      27     4.78     3    4   55    0    64.0   67   34    6   34   32    91
Scott Maine       L      26     4.84     3    4   47    0    57.7   60   31    7   31   45    90
Scott Rice        L      29     4.96     2    2   45    0    49.0   51   27    4   32   30    88
Marcos Mateo      R      27     5.25     2    3   37    9    72.0   79   42   10   36   54    83
Robert Coello     R      26     5.42     5    7   35    8    84.7   83   51   14   56   77    80
James Russell     L      25     5.85     3    5   44    9    84.7   99   55   18   30   56    74
Kyle Smit         R      23     6.03     4    7   35    5    62.7   76   42   10   33   37    72

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Aramis Ramirez       .276  .335  .480  2109  7910  1074  2183   445    24   373  1399   631  1199    19   108
Alfonso Soriano      .270  .319  .496  1991  7909  1195  2134   499    35   406  1118   520  1739   296   109
Marlon Byrd          .277  .332  .414  1612  5788   782  1605   341    41   123   700   381   975    69    95
Geovany Soto         .255  .344  .437  1494  4936   574  1261   284    11   197   761   683  1064     1   103

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Carlos Zambrano    201  132    0    3.71  499  479     2941 2640 1211  234 1381 2466    119
Ryan Dempster      177  155   87    4.26  661  436     2935 2871 1389  325 1301 2518    102

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Carlos Pena       1B     16%  29%  21%  22%  12%      John Mayberry         Jay Buhner        Matt Stairs
Geovany Soto      C      39%  35%  15%   9%   2%      Frankie Hayes    Charles Johnson       Rick Wilkins
Aramis Ramirez    3B     13%  24%  25%  23%  15%      Vern Stephens         Jeff Manto      Graig Nettles
Alfonso Soriano   LF      6%  16%  18%  25%  35%         Phil Hiatt    Jeffrey Leonard        Kevin Young
Marlon Byrd       CF      9%  16%  30%  29%  17%       Hector Lopez       Aaron Rowand          Gary Ward
Micah Hoffpauir   1B      2%   9%  15%  36%  38%      George Canale         John Valle       Hank Blalock
Starlin Castro    SS      9%  17%  28%  26%  20%        Derek Jeter        Robin Yount    Frankie Gustine
Brett Jackson     CF     15%  15%  26%  25%  19%        Stan Javier     Grady Sizemore       Ray Lankford
Bryan LaHair      LF      2%   8%  13%  24%  54%     Chris Wakeland         Dan Briggs         Jim Adduci
Kosuke Fukudome   RF      1%   6%  10%  20%  64%    Bobby Higginson       Larry Sutton          Von Hayes
Brad Snyder       RF      3%  11%  14%  23%  48%        Chris Jones        Brant Brown     Andy Tomberlin
Marquez Smith     3B      2%   9%  18%  28%  43%          Lou Lucca        Les Pearsey       Rey Palacios
Tyler Colvin      RF      1%   5%   8%  17%  69%     Mike Patterson        John Skurla          Al Martin
Scott Moore       3B      3%   9%  16%  27%  45%         Matt Macri          Tim Olson     Glenn Williams
Blake DeWitt      2B      4%   6%  11%  25%  54%       Ed Giovanola         Russ Adams      Chris Pittaro
Jason Dubois      LF      1%   4%   9%  21%  64%      J.R. Phillips        Ernie Young        Kurt Airoso
Luis Montanez     LF      1%   2%   4%  13%  80%       Nick Alvarez        Mike Stoner        Jeremy Ware
Jeff Baker        3B      1%   5%  11%  22%  61%        Kurt Abbott         Tim Hulett         Nick Green
Bobby Scales      2B      8%   8%  12%  23%  48%     Nelson Liriano         Jed Hansen       Jeff Blauser
Steve Clevenger   C       1%   6%  15%  34%  43%      James Durrman         Russ Nixon    A.J. Pierzynski
Josh Vitters      3B      2%   6%  10%  17%  65%          Wes Helms      Charlie Hayes        Tim Holland
Max Ramirez       C       4%   9%  16%  33%  38%       John Gibbons        Dusty Brown
Welington CastilloC       2%   7%  13%  28%  49%     Craig Faulkner     Gilberto Reyes        Pat Borders
Reed Johnson      LF      0%   1%   2%   7%  90%          Gary Ward      Shane Spencer         Chad Allen
Darwin Barney     SS      0%   2%   9%  26%  63%         Jose Munoz        Gus Polidor       Pedro Chavez
Fernando Perez    RF      0%   0%   0%   2%  98%      Andres Torres         Cecil Espy      Tony Triplett
Matt Camp         2B      0%   1%   2%   8%  90%       Kevin Hooper        Mark Sheehy   Donovan Mitchell
James Adduci      CF      0%   0%   1%   7%  91%      Quintin Berry    Carl Loadenthal     Curtis Goodwin
Koyie Hill        C       0%   0%   2%   7%  90%        Paul Hoover  George Mitterwald      Frank Charles
Augie Ojeda       2B      0%   0%   0%   1%  98%      Rene Gonzales     Craig Counsell        Dal Maxvill

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Carlos Marmol     RP      84%    10%     5%           Jim Kern    Armando Benitez   Scott Williamson
Sean Marshall     RP      68%    26%     6%      Dave Righetti        Joe Sambito      Norm Charlton
Kerry Wood        RP      57%    36%     8%     Juan Berenguer     Jason Kershner      Curt Leskanic
Carlos Zambrano   SP      67%    28%     5%        Bobo Newsom       David Palmer         Pat Malone
Ryan Dempster     SP      63%    30%     7%   Todd Stottlemyre         Dave Burba      Bert Blyleven
Andrew Cashner    RP      33%    51%    16%       Ryan Bukvich       Mark Littell     Alejandro Pena
Matt Garza        SP      45%    48%     7%         Pete Smith        Brett Tomko         Cal Eldred
Randy Wells       SP      44%    47%    10%        Jeff Weaver      Sidney Ponson         Kyle Lohse
Angel Guzman      RP      29%    43%    28%       Vinnie Chulk     Woody Williams       Rocky Cherry
John Grabow       RP      21%    46%    33%        J.C. Romero       Brian Snyder        Kevin Tolar
Jeff Stevens      RP       8%    47%    45%       Bryce Florie       Bart Miadich       Calvin Jones
Bob Howry         RP      12%    38%    50%        Dave Pavlas         Rick White     Matt Whiteside
John Gaub         RP       8%    40%    52%      Brian Fuentes      Tyler Johnson    Armando Almanza
Justin Berg       RP       6%    35%    59%        Jimmy Myers        Jim Dickson       Tom McCarthy
Carlos Silva      SP      16%    46%    38%        Josh Towers        Dave Eiland     Esteban Loaiza
Scott Maine       RP       7%    39%    54%         Tim Byrdak         Rob Murphy     Bryan Duquette
Todd Wellemeyer   SP       6%    34%    60%       Chan Ho Park         Cal Eldred       Jackson Todd
Jay Jackson       SP       6%    47%    47%  Scott Klingenbeck         Mark Clark       Eric Ireland
Scott Rice        RP       9%    34%    57%         Jim Brewer         Jim Roland         Dan McGinn
Casey Coleman     SP       6%    49%    44%       Jose Jimenez        Don Welchel          Mike Nagy
Christopher CarpenSP       5%    46%    50%         Kevin Ritz     Bill Mooneyham     Denny Bautista
Christopher ArcherSP       4%    39%    56%   Colin McLaughlin        Eric Hetzel     Donnie Elliott
Braden Looper     SP       6%    29%    65%    Bill Gullickson    Dennis Springer         Tim Kester
Marcos Mateo      RP       1%    21%    78%     John Pawlowski      Travis Hughes       Jason Shiell
Jeff Samardzija   SP       0%    12%    88%       Jeff Cornell   Kevin Pincavitch       Tom McCarthy
Thomas Diamond    SP       0%    15%    85%     Dennis Sarfate        Rich Dorman     Kevin Gallaher
Austin Bibens-DirkSP       4%    27%    69%    Ryan Baerlocher      Doug Sessions       Rob Radlosky
Robert Coello     RP       0%    18%    82%       Terry Felton     Dave Shipanoff         Mike James
Rafael Dolis      SP       3%    25%    72%          Rick Berg        Jesus Silva    Ben Hendrickson
Esmailin Caridad  SP       2%    24%    74%           Pat Rice       Mike Wilkins          Greg Beck
Polin Trinidad    SP       0%    20%    80%       Brian Shouse         Randy Leek        Mike Ramsey
Alberto Cabrera   SP       1%    21%    78%        Ricky Steik     Jason Phillips       Blaine Boyer
Mike Parisi       SP       9%    25%    66%       Jason Secoda      Kip Bouknight  Dennis Tankersley
J. R. Mathes      SP       2%    21%    78%        Mike Maroth        Scott Downs         Randy Leek
James Russell     RP       0%     7%    93%       Brady Borner       Dana Allison     Roberto Rivera
Kyle Smit         RP       0%     7%    93%         Jim Dorsey       Kevin Mobley     Kevin Gryboski

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Carlos Pena              0%      19%      23%       0%       0%      44%      12%       0%
Geovany Soto             8%      26%      22%       0%       0%       3%       6%       0%
Aramis Ramirez          14%      11%      21%       0%       0%       5%       4%       0%
Alfonso Soriano          4%       1%      25%       1%       1%      13%       2%       1%
Marlon Byrd             23%       7%       3%       8%       3%       0%       0%       0%
Micah Hoffpauir          4%       1%      12%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%
Starlin Castro          38%       8%       1%      23%      43%       0%       0%      16%
Brett Jackson            6%      10%       4%       0%      42%       3%       2%      23%
Bryan LaHair             5%       2%       6%       1%       0%       3%       1%       0%
Kosuke Fukudome          3%      24%       2%       0%       1%       0%       1%       1%
Brad Snyder              2%       1%      11%       0%       2%       1%       0%       2%
Marquez Smith            2%       1%       4%       0%       1%       1%       0%       0%
Tyler Colvin             3%       1%       8%       0%      29%       3%       0%       0%
Scott Moore              4%       2%       7%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Blake DeWitt             4%       2%       1%       1%      20%       0%       0%       0%
Jason Dubois             1%       1%       6%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Luis Montanez           19%       2%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Jeff Baker               7%       3%       3%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Bobby Scales             3%      12%       2%       0%       2%       0%       1%       0%
Steve Clevenger         18%       4%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Josh Vitters             4%       0%       7%       1%       1%       4%       1%       1%
Max Ramirez              2%       4%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Welington Castillo       2%       0%       3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Reed Johnson             8%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Darwin Barney           10%       0%       0%       2%       4%       0%       0%       0%
Fernando Perez           0%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%      13%
Matt Camp                3%       1%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       7%
James Adduci             2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%      12%
Koyie Hill               1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Augie Ojeda              2%       3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Carlos Marmol             85%        91%        99%         0%        96%
Sean Marshall             65%        95%        89%         4%        86%
Kerry Wood                48%        82%        97%         0%        76%
Carlos Zambrano           27%        85%        31%         0%        95%
Ryan Dempster             26%        82%        56%         0%        67%
Andrew Cashner            26%        79%        39%         0%        83%
Matt Garza                12%        79%        21%         2%        41%
Randy Wells               11%        77%         2%         4%        74%
Angel Guzman              29%        62%        26%         7%        55%
John Grabow               15%        59%        31%         0%        67%
Jeff Stevens               8%        40%        47%         0%        59%
Bob Howry                 12%        42%         6%        15%        43%
John Gaub                  8%        40%        79%         0%        68%
Justin Berg                4%        34%         0%         0%        70%
Carlos Silva               4%        34%         2%        44%        45%
Scott Maine                5%        38%        11%         0%        49%
Todd Wellemeyer            2%        16%         3%         0%        25%
Jay Jackson                1%        19%         1%         0%        16%
Scott Rice                 6%        29%         3%         0%        77%
Casey Coleman              1%        21%         0%         0%        54%
Christopher Carpen         0%        17%         1%         0%        73%
Christopher Archer         1%        16%        15%         0%        83%
Braden Looper              2%        15%         0%        11%        20%
Marcos Mateo               1%        17%         8%         0%        32%
Jeff Samardzija            0%         6%         1%         0%        25%
Thomas Diamond             0%         9%        14%         0%        38%
Austin Bibens-Dirk         0%        11%         1%         0%        20%
Robert Coello              0%        11%        57%         0%        11%
Rafael Dolis               0%        10%         0%         0%        74%
Esmailin Caridad           0%         8%         0%         0%        11%
Polin Trinidad             0%         3%         0%         6%        17%
Alberto Cabrera            0%         5%         0%         0%        66%
Mike Parisi                3%        19%         1%         2%        54%
J. R. Mathes               0%         5%         0%        43%        22%
James Russell              0%         4%         0%         3%         2%
Kyle Smit                  0%         3%         0%         0%        28%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Baltimore Orioles
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
Houston Astros
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers
Minnesota Twins
San Francisco Giants
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies

Dan Szymborski Posted: February 19, 2011 at 06:50 AM | 46 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. McCoy Posted: February 19, 2011 at 07:01 AM (#3753960)
6 starters at league average, a SS at 96 OPS+, and a second baseman pulling up the rear. For the Cubs that isn't a bad outlook. They usually go into a season with at least a couple of blackholes around the diamond. If the hitters pull anything like this off the Cubs will be in the mix for the playoffs.
   2. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: February 19, 2011 at 07:27 AM (#3753963)
overall im happy with the projections, and well as much as i hate jeter, i wouldnt mind if starlin turned into him (with the ability to go left and right!) also the pitching doesnt look too bad, ill take the over on marmol and big z, dont trust silva so i cant choose all the carloi
   3. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: February 19, 2011 at 07:31 AM (#3753965)
Augie Ojeda 2B 0% 0% 0% 1% 98% i had to (chance of vg g avg poor as you all well know)
   4. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: February 19, 2011 at 07:56 AM (#3753973)
Zips be high on Pena still, I see.
   5. Don Geovany Soto (chris h.) Posted: February 19, 2011 at 08:09 AM (#3753976)
Yeah, Zips seems a bit high on Pena. And in my heart I think it's low on Aramis, though my head isn't convinced...
   6. Dan Posted: February 19, 2011 at 08:15 AM (#3753979)
ill take the over on marmol and big z, dont trust silva so i cant choose all the carloi


But you didn't even mention what you think about the Carlos Peña! ZiPS sure is bullish on him though.
   7. Walt Davis Posted: February 19, 2011 at 08:38 AM (#3753982)
Yep, those hitting projections are better than I thought. Very happy with the Jackson projection too. I wouldn't mind having Yount and Lankford for the next 10 years.

I assume ZiPS is getting thrown by Z's odd usage the last couple of years because those are kinda odd comps.
   8. Walt Davis Posted: February 19, 2011 at 08:41 AM (#3753983)
Boy, the back end of the pen looks pretty bad and not deep. Rotation isn't deep -- still don't know why we traded Gorz. Bench isn't deep.

Darwin Barney is probably my favorite name in baseball.
   9. shoewizard Posted: February 19, 2011 at 10:49 AM (#3753999)
Castros comps just roll off the tongue....Jeter....Yount......Frankie Gustine ???

Seriously, quite impressive first couple of comps
   10. threepointpi Posted: February 19, 2011 at 01:20 PM (#3754003)
hey Dan,

any chance of a Gorzelanny projection? He's one of the lost boys, between the Cubbies and the Nats. If not that's alright as well, thanks!
   11. amisaid1 Posted: February 19, 2011 at 02:27 PM (#3754015)
Can we get a Trey McNutt projection? Probably the top rated SP prospect in the organization. Thanks again!
   12. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: February 19, 2011 at 03:06 PM (#3754031)
Wow, that Koyie Hill projection is sub-putrid. I know he probably didn't figure into the 2011 plans anyway... but wow.

I was hoping for more from Garza than a Randy Wells clone. Particularly since that's a batch of very poor projections from Chicago's sixth starter candidates.

Also, I was hoping Marquez Smith would project as a reasonable major leaguer.

The Brett Jackson projection is nice.
   13. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: February 19, 2011 at 04:05 PM (#3754059)
Castro is better than Yount at this point. Better at dealing with breaking stuff at bat while a much more natural SS.

What folks forget is that Robin could have chosen different pro sport paths. He was really torn between golf and baseball as one example. So at 20 he was rangy kid in the middle of the diamond with a good arm acting on instinct and reflex.
He made himself into a great player and the best baserunner of his generation. Just a marvel

Starlin is fun to watch. The rest of that team? Not so much
   14. Travolta19 Posted: February 19, 2011 at 04:40 PM (#3754080)
Soriano's #1 comp is Hiatt? Doesn't seem right. Also, I was surprised to see him go to VG, but the error rate also rise dramatically.
   15. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 19, 2011 at 04:44 PM (#3754084)
This was in payroll order, right? The Cubs have the highest non-Yanksox payroll? The team whose best players include Starlin Castro, Tyler Colvin, Geovany Soto and Randy Wells? That must be one bimodal payroll.

Wow, that Koyie Hill projection is sub-putrid. I know he probably didn't figure into the 2011 plans anyway... but wow.


Just imagine how bad he'd be without his four bionic fingers.
   16. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: February 19, 2011 at 04:47 PM (#3754086)
Would love to see a Robinson Chirinos projection, including what positions he gets a range rating for . . .
   17. Forsch 10 From Navarone (Dayn) Posted: February 19, 2011 at 04:48 PM (#3754087)
Figured Garza would have a better projection than that. I'll take the over on him.
   18. Accent Shallow Posted: February 19, 2011 at 04:58 PM (#3754096)
I know Wellemeyer sucks, but he's pulling a Tom Glavine if he can keep his ERA under 5 while allowing over 1000 hits . . .
   19. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 19, 2011 at 05:01 PM (#3754097)
1122 hits in 107 innings...maybe if Pena plays shortstop, Byrd plays second base and Castro plays catcher they could have enough unearned runs to get that ERA.
   20. steagles Posted: February 19, 2011 at 05:30 PM (#3754113)
any chance of a Gorzelanny projection? He's one of the lost boys, between the Cubbies and the Nats. If not that's alright as well, thanks!
Would love to see a Robinson Chirinos projection, including what positions he gets a range rating for . . .



i'd like to second these requests. i'm very curious as to what chirinos looks like considering his time around the IF.
   21. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: February 19, 2011 at 05:43 PM (#3754121)
This was in payroll order, right? The Cubs have the highest non-Yanksox payroll?


For 2010. Cots has the Phillies payroll for 2011 currently at 161.9m$, 600k less than the Red Sox. (I checked like a week ago, I don't think either team has done anything since then).
   22. McCoy Posted: February 19, 2011 at 05:58 PM (#3754127)
Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Mets, and Angels all have a higher payroll than the Cubs. The next closest team is the White Sox.
   23. Spahn Insane Posted: February 19, 2011 at 06:06 PM (#3754133)
Projected 95 for Brett Jackson, huh? Not bad. Not that I expect to see much of him this year.
   24. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 19, 2011 at 06:42 PM (#3754160)
Chirinos will have an AV at 1B and a FR at 2B and 3B (and a PO at SS).

Gorzelanny is projected at 8-9, 4.38 (ERA+ 95) for Washington.

Note that the spreadsheet will be out in about a week!
   25. bigboy1234 Posted: February 19, 2011 at 07:17 PM (#3754175)
Just for the record while I'd love to see a Chirinos projection too, he and Archer (who is listed above) were sent to the Rays in the Garza trade.

Dan, did you take down the zMLE file or did it just mess up as I tried to access it the other day and it said it wasn't available.
   26. Good cripple hitter Posted: February 19, 2011 at 07:22 PM (#3754176)
His overall projection looks alright, but I never expected to see Jason Kershner as a comp for Kerry Wood. Kershner was pretty much out of baseball by 32, and even despite that he never piled up the strikeouts (or walks) like Wood does.
   27. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: February 19, 2011 at 07:30 PM (#3754182)
Thanks Dan! How does Chirinos' bat look?
   28. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: February 19, 2011 at 09:06 PM (#3754241)
Also, I was hoping Marquez Smith would project as a reasonable major leaguer.
I think he's better than the projection suggests (on O and D) ... which is different than faulting the projections (his #s weren't special (on O) before last year).
   29. Austin Posted: February 19, 2011 at 10:20 PM (#3754271)
People seem so eager to see the bad in Soriano because of his being overpaid that they forget that his defensive numbers are really pretty decent, but I nevertheless fell into the trap of assuming that he would be FR or at best AV. As others have noted, Castro's comparables are also quite striking. And those are better projections than I expected for Garza, Silva, and especially Wellemeyer. I want to like Johnson and Perez, but those projections sure don't jive with that desire.
   30. Walt Davis Posted: February 20, 2011 at 12:20 AM (#3754321)
While promising, let's not get too worked up about Castro's comps. As HW mentions, through age 20, Yount wasn't particularly good and he didn't become YOUNT until age 24. Jeter was still in the minors at 21 and put up Castro-ish numbers at 22 and 23. The comps aren't really long-range projection comps. Castro is more likely to be Gustine (who I'd never heard of perhaps because he never improved as a hitter) or Renteria. Early career comps to Yount and Jeter are probably like early career comps to Clemente, albeit more promising than that.
   31. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: February 20, 2011 at 12:36 AM (#3754327)
Perez is tricky because he tried to play through an injury + used to be a switch-hitter.
   32. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 20, 2011 at 12:36 AM (#3754328)
The Jason Kershner comp is an error, but one that's pretty hard to fix. It looks like Jason Kershner's name is on someone else's 3 year line - the Kershner above is the 1979-1981 seasons of a pitcher born in 1949.
   33. Greg K Posted: February 20, 2011 at 12:47 AM (#3754331)
What folks forget is that Robin could have chosen different pro sport paths. He was really torn between golf and baseball as one example.

Probably a product of me knowing Yount more through Bill James than personal experience (aside from the tail end of his career in the early 90s), but being torn between baseball and golf is the only personal detail I know about Yount, aside from him just being generally proficient at baseball.
   34. Walt Davis Posted: February 20, 2011 at 01:44 AM (#3754354)
The Jason Kershner comp is an error, but one that's pretty hard to fix. It looks like Jason Kershner's name is on someone else's 3 year line - the Kershner above is the 1979-1981 seasons of a pitcher born in 1949.

Based on K/9, your top candidate would seem to be Jim Kern given the initials.
   35. Spahn Insane Posted: February 20, 2011 at 02:44 AM (#3754368)
So Ramirez's top 3 comps are Vern Stephens, Jeff Manto and Graig Nettles. One of these things is not like the others...
   36. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 20, 2011 at 02:56 AM (#3754374)
Nope, Kern's there. It's kinda hard to track down as everyone's been park neutralized and weighted in those lines.
   37. Walt Davis Posted: February 20, 2011 at 04:43 AM (#3754393)
In K/9, after Kern you get Bair, Lavelle, Luebber, Babcock, Farmer and a bunch of guys who didn't strike anybody out.

Of course it could be some minor leaguer's MLEs I suppose.
   38. amisaid1 Posted: February 20, 2011 at 06:57 AM (#3754423)
Chirinos will have a C rating as well, correct? He's played 170 minor league games there and that should be his position in Tampa.
   39. Barnaby Jones Posted: February 21, 2011 at 04:00 PM (#3754960)
Perez is tricky because he tried to play through an injury + used to be a switch-hitter.


I think I read recently that he's going back to switch hitting this year. Hope he's healthy this year and gets back on track.
   40. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: February 21, 2011 at 04:21 PM (#3754977)
perez: yup - saw that on rotoworld yesterday.
chirinos: guess we'll see in a week. i'd guess fr arm, possibly av.
   41. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: February 21, 2011 at 05:10 PM (#3755010)
People seem so eager to see the bad in Soriano because of his being overpaid that they forget that his defensive numbers are really pretty decent, but I nevertheless fell into the trap of assuming that he would be FR or at best AV.

Also, Soriano has at least one spectacular misplay a week, so those are always fresh in everyone's mind. It's hard to argue with balls that he gets to, but the argument is that he doesn't get to many that he should.

Also, he's really, really, really overpaid.
   42. MrMet33 Posted: February 21, 2011 at 08:29 PM (#3755198)
I think it's highly plausible that Cashner should get a SP projection. He started in the minors last year.
   43. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: February 21, 2011 at 08:47 PM (#3755224)
The Cubs have penciled him into the bullpen this year.
   44. rickey steals third person Posted: March 03, 2011 at 12:01 AM (#3761876)
Loving the Bobo comp for Z.
   45. rickey steals third person Posted: March 03, 2011 at 12:02 AM (#3761877)
Loving the Bobo comp for Z.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
BFFB
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Page rendered in 0.5002 seconds
47 querie(s) executed