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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Thursday, January 27, 2011
2011 ZiPS Projections - Chicago White Sox
It’s not a world-beating team, but the White Sox are my early pick for the AL Central, edging out the Tigers and a little above the Twins.
The team’s not headed for a 95-win season, but they are generally solid without a lot of major holes, though they could use another bullpen arm. It’s still anybody’s guess as to what Sale’s role will be, so I’m leaving him split for now (and likely will if it’s not very clear-cut at the start of the year). The team’s depth isn’t that great, but Kenny Williams is always aggressive about improving the team, whether it’s landing Peavy, picking up Ramirez’s money, or taking a risk and picking up Alexis Rios’s contract (a much better risk than picking up Vernon Wells). Not all of his moves work out, but the saying is Audaces fortuna iuvat, after all.
The team could improve their odds without the constant fascination with leftfielders that hit like mediocre centerfielders. Luckily for KW and The Ozzie, they’re in the Central division and not the East.
Adam Dunn was an inspired move for the White Sox - he came far cheaper than the other top hitters that aren’t pushing 40, he can DH, and the Cell is an excellent HR park without being a big hitters’ park overall. Signing McPherson could be sneaky useful from AAA if an emergency pops up. He could play the field, but it’s probably safer not to let him with an injury record nearly as poor and even longer than Eric Chavez.
Next up: Tigers
Oracle on Twitter
Batting Projections
Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+
Adam Dunn L DH 31 .252 .383 .539 147 497 81 125 24 1 39 98 102 190 1 1 142
Paul Konerko R 1B 35 .273 .358 .500 133 484 70 132 24 1 28 86 62 92 1 1 126
Carlos Quentin R RF 28 .261 .358 .495 128 444 74 116 25 2 25 88 49 79 4 2 125
Alexis Rios R CF 30 .273 .321 .440 153 605 84 165 33 4 20 84 40 103 26 10 100
Dallas McPherson L DH 30 .226 .310 .487 105 380 51 86 17 2 26 63 44 153 5 2 106
Ramon Castro R C 35 .250 .309 .463 47 136 16 34 5 0 8 24 12 35 0 0 102
Gordon Beckham R 2B 24 .264 .331 .421 156 553 79 146 38 2 15 73 49 105 8 5 99
Alexei Ramirez R SS 29 .279 .315 .423 154 567 75 158 24 2 18 73 31 73 12 8 95
Alejandro de Aza L LF 27 .262 .325 .387 109 351 51 92 20 3 6 39 30 77 15 5 89
Dayan Viciedo R 1B 22 .263 .292 .422 156 585 74 154 24 0 23 78 19 133 4 2 88
Mark Teahen L 3B 29 .251 .319 .397 125 438 59 110 22 3 12 49 42 113 6 4 90
Brent Morel R 3B 24 .269 .308 .401 156 584 71 157 33 4 12 66 32 113 13 8 87
A.J. Pierzynski L C 34 .272 .304 .399 127 474 49 129 25 1 11 52 18 52 2 2 86
Tyler Flowers R C 25 .217 .326 .393 126 433 55 94 24 2 16 58 64 156 3 3 91
Juan Pierre L LF 33 .271 .332 .323 143 505 66 137 15 4 1 33 34 35 45 15 76
Daryle Ward L 1B 35 .234 .314 .383 86 209 22 49 10 0 7 29 24 51 1 0 85
Mark Kotsay L 1B 35 .254 .312 .381 90 291 28 74 15 2 6 32 25 34 2 3 84
Stefan Gartrell R RF 27 .228 .288 .401 137 509 63 116 21 2 21 67 39 165 4 2 81
Brandon Short R RF 22 .256 .301 .376 134 543 64 139 25 5 10 66 28 146 8 9 79
Jim Gallagher L 1B 25 .239 .305 .353 152 586 63 140 30 2 11 56 52 133 4 3 75
Cole Armstrong L C 27 .238 .289 .369 96 336 29 80 17 0 9 39 23 78 0 0 74
Brent Lillibridge R SS 27 .222 .285 .338 125 388 50 86 16 4 7 37 31 112 24 7 65
Omar Vizquel B 3B 44 .255 .316 .317 83 259 24 66 8 1 2 20 23 37 7 4 70
Jordan Danks L CF 24 .228 .296 .341 130 505 67 115 24 3 9 39 47 181 13 6 69
John Shelby R CF 25 .227 .269 .369 132 502 66 114 25 5 12 52 28 144 19 9 68
Justin Greene R CF 25 .221 .285 .333 143 511 63 113 18 6 9 44 35 186 20 13 64
Eduardo Escobar B SS 22 .240 .275 .325 156 624 73 150 19 8 6 50 30 147 13 7 59
Nate Sutton L 2B 28 .235 .290 .300 124 460 58 109 17 4 2 36 37 93 13 7 59
Javier Colina R 2B 32 .224 .260 .343 72 254 24 57 13 1 5 24 11 53 2 3 59
Donny Lucy R C 28 .215 .257 .301 62 209 21 45 9 0 3 12 10 63 4 1 48
Defensive Projections
Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF
Adam Dunn FR/179 PO/188 PO/188
Paul Konerko FR/88
Carlos Quentin PO/146 PO/146
Alexis Rios AV/140 VG/72
Dallas McPherson AV/121 AV/142
Ramon Castro FR
Gordon Beckham AV/110 AV/104 FR/112
Alexei Ramirez FR/116 AV/101 FR/134
Alejandro de Aza VG/131 AV/146 VG/131
Dayan Viciedo AV/126 FR/138
Mark Teahen AV/110 PO/114 PO/116 AV/95 FR/87
Brent Morel VG/82 FR/104
A.J. Pierzynski FR
Tyler Flowers FR
Juan Pierre VG/55 FR/124
Daryle Ward FR/117 PO/126 PO/126
Mark Kotsay AV/97 FR/114 PO/56 FR/93
Stefan Gartrell VG/133 AV/132
Brandon Short AV/110 FR/131 AV/115
Jim Gallagher FR/166 AV/82 PO/129 AV/82
Cole Armstrong FR
Brent Lillibridge AV/136 AV/161 AV/118
Omar Vizquel AV/94 AV/78 VG/51
Jordan Danks VG/104 AV/40 VG/104
John Shelby AV/114 AV/146
Justin Greene VG/106 FR/121 VG/106
Eduardo Escobar AV/109 VG/117
Nate Sutton AV/127 VG/122 PO/125 AV/110 FR/131 AV/110
Javier Colina FR/103 PO/109 PO/102 PO/107
Donny Lucy AV
Pitching Projections - Starters
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
John Danks L 26 3.82 15 9 32 32 200.3 189 85 21 65 161 117
Jake Peavy R 30 3.89 10 6 20 20 120.3 110 52 14 40 119 115
Gavin Floyd R 28 3.95 14 9 30 30 189.3 186 83 20 57 157 113
Mark Buehrle L 32 4.30 13 10 30 30 190.3 214 91 21 45 103 104
Chris Sale L 22 4.40 10 8 40 20 143.3 143 70 18 52 130 102
Edwin Jackson R 27 4.55 12 11 33 33 205.7 209 104 28 80 164 98
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96
Freddy Garcia R 36 4.96 5 5 15 15 81.7 90 45 12 25 52 90
Carlos Torres R 28 5.39 7 10 29 23 137.0 147 82 17 84 101 83
Lucas Harrell R 26 6.23 6 11 25 23 117.0 145 81 15 73 57 72
Brandon Hynick R 26 6.26 5 9 24 24 129.3 161 90 26 48 69 71
Philip Humber L 28 6.40 4 11 31 22 128.0 167 91 29 53 75 65
Kyle Cofield R 24 6.67 3 6 21 16 79.7 94 59 13 60 45 67
Jeff Marquez R 27 6.80 4 10 20 19 94.0 126 71 18 43 43 66
Nathan Jones R 25 6.87 3 8 31 15 91.7 121 70 14 62 53 65
Anthony Carter R 25 7.02 3 8 36 15 92.3 115 72 23 48 57 64
Pitching Statistics - Relievers
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Matt Thornton L 34 2.91 6 2 61 0 58.7 46 19 5 19 75 153
Sergio Santos R 27 3.71 3 1 56 0 53.3 50 22 5 24 57 120
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Jesse Crain R 29 4.14 4 3 67 0 63.0 58 29 7 30 61 108
Will Ohman L 33 4.15 1 1 60 0 39.0 35 18 5 20 40 102
Erick Threets L 29 4.61 2 2 33 0 41.0 41 21 4 22 27 97
Tony Pena R 25 4.72 4 4 65 1 87.7 95 46 10 32 60 95
Gregory Infante R 23 4.85 4 4 60 0 59.3 63 32 4 38 48 92
Randy Williams L 35 4.98 1 1 43 0 43.3 45 24 5 24 36 90
Brian Bruney R 29 5.24 2 2 36 1 34.3 34 20 4 25 31 85
Jon Adkins R 33 5.75 3 4 48 0 51.7 64 33 7 18 24 78
Jeff Gray R 29 5.86 2 4 47 0 55.3 69 36 8 21 29 76
Clevelan Santeliz R 24 6.04 2 3 40 0 50.7 52 34 8 42 42 74
Jhonny Nunez R 25 6.12 3 6 42 9 85.3 101 58 15 44 65 73
Freddy Dolsi R 28 6.20 3 6 48 4 69.7 82 48 11 43 43 72
Greg Aquino R 33 6.42 2 4 37 0 40.7 45 29 8 27 32 70
Scott Elarton R 35 7.22 1 4 18 4 38.7 49 31 10 19 22 62
Extrapolated Career Statistics
Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+
Adam Dunn .242 .366 .502 2479 8560 1377 2069 440 17 584 1526 1600 2775 67 126
Paul Konerko .275 .349 .489 2463 8935 1263 2455 447 13 479 1519 964 1477 10 116
Alexis Rios .273 .321 .432 1930 7479 1028 2042 422 62 215 968 498 1250 276 97
Juan Pierre .294 .345 .360 1833 7033 1009 2071 243 88 15 489 440 441 599 83
A.J. Pierzynski .279 .315 .412 1826 6578 743 1833 369 18 157 783 263 761 20 89
Mark Kotsay .277 .333 .409 1747 6331 793 1755 351 49 129 707 542 737 98 97
Alexei Ramirez .275 .310 .424 1654 6094 789 1674 238 19 211 808 319 704 119 93
Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+
Mark Buehrle 224 179 0 4.10 549 524 3461 3771 1578 402 819 1907 111
John Danks 184 138 0 4.04 431 431 2667 2561 1197 311 911 2125 111
Gavin Floyd 159 125 0 4.30 393 381 2389 2415 1142 291 776 1904 105
Edwin Jackson 127 127 0 4.66 392 361 2255 2352 1168 300 926 1739 95
Jake Peavy 158 113 0 3.61 355 357 2203 1937 883 248 723 2231 114
Freddy Garcia 145 102 0 4.25 344 343 2150 2149 1015 268 679 1523 106
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3
Adam Dunn DH 49% 29% 10% 8% 4% Carlos Pena Ryan Howard Jim Gentile
Paul Konerko 1B 30% 31% 17% 16% 6% Harold Baines Fred McGriff Richie Zisk
Carlos Quentin RF 36% 35% 15% 10% 4% Kevin Mench Tom Brunansky Bubba Trammell
Alexis Rios CF 22% 21% 27% 21% 10% Garry Maddox Aaron Rowand Marquis Grissom
Dallas McPherson DH 1% 4% 7% 24% 64% Mike Hessman Chris Norton Mitch Jones
Ramon Castro C 24% 33% 23% 15% 4% Lance Parrish Benito Santiago Joe Oliver
Gordon Beckham 2B 20% 17% 19% 21% 23% Leo Cardenas Scott Brosius Mark Lewis
Alexei Ramirez SS 16% 21% 30% 22% 11% Hubie Brooks Jack Wilson Gene Alley
Alejandro de Aza LF 3% 8% 12% 23% 55% Dave Martinez Leron Lee Cesar Geronimo
Dayan Viciedo 1B 2% 5% 6% 19% 68% Walter Young Luis De los Santos Rod Allen
Mark Teahen 3B 2% 8% 14% 24% 52% Ernest Riles Greg Dobbs Ron Oester
Brent Morel 3B 2% 5% 12% 24% 58% Hubie Brooks Vic Rodriguez John Wehner
A.J. Pierzynski C 5% 13% 20% 33% 29% Jamie Burke Chris Coste Manny Sanguillen
Tyler Flowers C 8% 17% 21% 28% 26% Jeff BaileyMaximiliano Ramirez John Gibbons
Juan Pierre LF 1% 2% 5% 12% 81% Jason Tyner Tony Womack Kerry Robinson
Daryle Ward 1B 1% 2% 4% 15% 78% Dave May Dann Howitt Dusty Wathan
Mark Kotsay 1B 1% 1% 2% 11% 85% Larry Biittner Glenn Adams Bill Stein
Stefan Gartrell RF 0% 2% 3% 9% 86% Rich Murray Mario Encarnacion Jeff Deardorff
Brandon Short RF 1% 1% 2% 5% 92% George Hinshaw Pedro Munoz Wil Culmer
Jim Gallagher 1B 0% 0% 1% 5% 94% Michael Paulk Mark Ori Ron Witmeyer
Cole Armstrong C 2% 5% 9% 24% 61% Joe Ayrault Alberto Castillo Craig Tatum
Brent Lillibridge SS 3% 6% 13% 23% 55% Nelson Castro Juan Bell Brian Bixler
Omar Vizquel 3B 0% 1% 2% 5% 92% Jose Vizcaino Jim Davenport Larry Bowa
Jordan Danks CF 0% 1% 4% 11% 84% Ty Gainey Vernon Thomas Rod Myers
John Shelby CF 1% 1% 4% 11% 84% Luis Saturria Cesar Hernandez Fletcher Bates
Justin Greene CF 0% 0% 1% 6% 93% John Denman Roberto Kelly Dennis Hood
Eduardo Escobar SS 1% 1% 4% 9% 85% Wilton Guerrero Carlos Garcia Manuel Lee
Nate Sutton 2B 0% 0% 0% 2% 98% Derek Wathan Kevin Castleberry John Holt
Javier Colina 2B 1% 0% 0% 2% 97% Chris Petersen Kevin Baez Gary Green
Donny Lucy C 0% 0% 0% 2% 97% Dave Ullery Pascual Matos Tony DeFrancesco
Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3
Matt Thornton RP 80% 10% 9% Billy Wagner Arthur Rhodes Gary Lavelle
Sergio Santos RP 45% 38% 18% Duane Ward Jim Kern Steve Bedrosian
John Danks SP 68% 23% 10% Steve Avery Mark Mulder Randy Wolf
Jake Peavy SP 65% 24% 12% Curt Schilling Andy Benes Kevin Appier
Gavin Floyd SP 56% 34% 11% Bronson Arroyo Pascual Perez Larry Christenson
Jesse Crain RP 25% 48% 28% Hector Carrasco Dick Selma Frank Williams
Will Ohman RP 32% 45% 23% Mike Remlinger Kevin Tolar Joe Price
Mark Buehrle SP 37% 51% 12% Zane Smith Tommy John Jim Kaat
Chris Sale SP 12% 65% 24% John Smiley Jeremy Affeldt Casey Fossum
Edwin Jackson SP 19% 65% 16% Kelly Downs John Thomson Rick Rhoden
Erick Threets RP 20% 38% 42% Jim Roland Tippy Martinez Jim Brewer
Tony Pena RP 5% 48% 47% Franquelis Osoria Chad Bradford David Wilhelmi
Gregory Infante RP 7% 43% 50% Alan Mills Anthony Chavez Tom Thurberg
Freddy Garcia SP 17% 44% 39% Paul Byrd Shane Reynolds Gil Heredia
Randy Williams RP 12% 32% 56% Norm Charlton Dave Righetti Kevin Tolar
Brian Bruney RP 7% 25% 68% John D’Acquisto Calvin Jones Pat Flury
Carlos Torres SP 2% 33% 65% Brett Laxton Derrick Lewis Jason Bere
Jon Adkins RP 4% 19% 77% Jack Russell Danny Graves Bob Miller
Jeff Gray RP 1% 11% 89% Ron Taylor Carl Willis Bryan Corey
Clevelan Santeliz RP 1% 8% 91% Michael Doyne Derek Aucoin Billy Sadler
Jhonny Nunez RP 0% 4% 96% Andy Kimball Brett Evert Dave Hooten
Freddy Dolsi RP 0% 5% 94% Mike Bumstead Marty McLeary Daven Bond
Lucas Harrell SP 0% 7% 93% Jeff Fulchino Edwin Morel Jared Wells
Brandon Hynick SP 0% 5% 95% Brad Ziegler Ryan Cox Andy Ghelfi
Philip Humber SP 0% 2% 98% Tim McClaskey Dave Ford Mark DiFelice
Greg Aquino RP 2% 10% 88% Mike Jeffcoat Ken Ray Bob Long
Kyle Cofield SP 0% 4% 96% Edwin Morel Randy O’Neal Rob Purvis
Jeff Marquez SP 0% 2% 98% Kyle Middleton Pat Ahearne Brandon Emanuel
Nathan Jones SP 0% 0% 100% Dallas Trahern Steve Andrade Julien Tucker
Anthony Carter SP 0% 0% 100% Mike Redding Andy Croghan Chris Mears
Scott Elarton RP 1% 4% 95% Joe Haynes Terry Mathews Travis Driskill
Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB
Adam Dunn 2% 44% 68% 0% 0% 87% 43% 0%
Paul Konerko 17% 31% 46% 0% 0% 38% 25% 0%
Carlos Quentin 6% 25% 46% 0% 0% 26% 19% 0%
Alexis Rios 11% 2% 10% 8% 5% 11% 1% 32%
Dallas McPherson 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 9% 1% 0%
Ramon Castro 10% 7% 24% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0%
Gordon Beckham 7% 5% 5% 23% 1% 3% 2% 2%
Alexei Ramirez 19% 2% 7% 0% 0% 7% 2% 3%
Alejandro de Aza 9% 5% 1% 0% 2% 0% 1% 2%
Dayan Viciedo 6% 0% 9% 1% 0% 20% 2% 0%
Mark Teahen 3% 2% 2% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0%
Brent Morel 8% 0% 4% 10% 4% 3% 1% 4%
A.J. Pierzynski 14% 0% 3% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0%
Tyler Flowers 0% 5% 3% 0% 0% 2% 1% 0%
Juan Pierre 11% 4% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 95%
Daryle Ward 2% 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Mark Kotsay 6% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Stefan Gartrell 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 7% 0% 0%
Brandon Short 3% 1% 2% 1% 8% 1% 1% 0%
Jim Gallagher 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0%
Cole Armstrong 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Brent Lillibridge 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 21%
Omar Vizquel 7% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Jordan Danks 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1%
John Shelby 0% 0% 1% 0% 7% 1% 0% 9%
Justin Greene 0% 0% 0% 0% 14% 0% 0% 5%
Eduardo Escobar 1% 0% 0% 0% 31% 0% 0% 2%
Nate Sutton 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 1%
Javier Colina 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Donny Lucy 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1
Matt Thornton 75% 93% 99% 11% 83%
Sergio Santos 37% 79% 85% 1% 79%
Jake Peavy 31% 83% 85% 5% 55%
John Danks 23% 87% 16% 4% 65%
Gavin Floyd 15% 81% 26% 6% 63%
Jesse Crain 20% 66% 72% 0% 61%
Will Ohman 30% 66% 81% 1% 65%
Mark Buehrle 12% 63% 2% 40% 53%
Chris Sale 7% 60% 52% 1% 41%
Edwin Jackson 2% 47% 13% 0% 26%
Erick Threets 14% 50% 6% 1% 77%
Tony Pena 3% 41% 1% 2% 61%
Gregory Infante 5% 36% 23% 0% 91%
Freddy Garcia 5% 32% 2% 16% 32%
Randy Williams 8% 36% 25% 0% 61%
Brian Bruney 7% 32% 47% 0% 62%
Carlos Torres 0% 8% 5% 0% 41%
Jon Adkins 3% 14% 1% 9% 47%
Jeff Gray 1% 8% 1% 4% 31%
Clevelan Santeliz 0% 7% 25% 0% 28%
Jhonny Nunez 0% 2% 8% 0% 13%
Freddy Dolsi 0% 3% 2% 0% 24%
Lucas Harrell 0% 1% 0% 0% 37%
Brandon Hynick 0% 0% 0% 1% 1%
Philip Humber 0% 0% 0% 1% 10%
Greg Aquino 1% 9% 20% 0% 23%
Kyle Cofield 0% 0% 0% 0% 22%
Jeff Marquez 0% 0% 0% 0% 5%
Nathan Jones 0% 0% 0% 0% 18%
Anthony Carter 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
Scott Elarton 1% 4% 2% 2% 8%
All figures in % based on projection playing time
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Baltimore Orioles
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
Houston Astros
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers
Minnesota Twins
San Francisco Giants
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
Dan Szymborski
Posted: January 27, 2011 at 07:49 PM | 40 comment(s)
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1. Moe Greene Posted: January 27, 2011 at 07:58 PM (#3737632)Towards the end of last season, colin at SSS put out an article essentially saying that Jackson had accumulated enough innings with the White Sox to make meaningful interpretations about certain statistics (I think he cited some work Tango has done). I also seem to recall FanGraphs putting out a similar article, although I could be mistaken. Does ZiPS simply think Jackson's time with the Sox was an abberation? Or -- more likely -- is it simply weighing heavier his previous 550+ innings (last three years) of, well, slightly-above-league-average pitching?
Also nice to see that ZiPS finally likes Gavin Floyd. His projection from last season was for 200 innings of a 96 ERA+, and a K-to-BB barely above 2-to-1. This year represents a rather marked difference.
I think (hope?) Beckham beats that projection, but given his atrocious first half last year, that's probably not all that surprising.
As always, thanks for these.
Also, sadly, if 15 is the line on Juan Pierre's caught stealings...give me the over, big time. Ozzie is going to keep giving him a permanent green light...and he's going to rack up the outs on the basepaths. The only thing that can suppress Pierre's CS is if he simply doesn't get on base very often...
Still lukewarm on Buehrle, though. I think he and Edwin Jackson should both be better than those projections.
I think (hope?) Beckham beats that projection, but given his atrocious first half last year, that's probably not all that surprising.
Beckham was very good in the second half of 2010 (.310/.380/.497 after the All-Star Break), but I think that a .750 OPS is a fair projection for him, all things considered. I wouldn't be surprised if he was a lot better than that, though.
The projections on Carlos Quentin and Brent Morel seem optimistic to me. I'd be thrilled if either of them did that well. Otherwise, I can't find much to quibble with.
That bullpen looks really weak. Matt Thornton is one of the best relievers in MLB, but otherwise there's a lot of guys who are questionable at best. I think they'll be forced to turn Sale into a reliever.
ZIPS thinks Ichiro will hit under .300, but Dallas McPherson will hit 26 hrs. Is that the same Dallas McPherson who last hit a homer in the majors in 2006? Career high of 8 in a season? Career total of 18?
Which is a bit like saying Neftali Feliz would be a poor starter because he has a career high win total of 4. McPherson's been injured and hasn't played much, but there's never been any question about his power and he's going to a better HR environment than he's ever had in the majors (and not particularly close). And even that, he's not even projected to be average for 1B or DH.
I'm assuming there's no Manny here since he signed with Tampa, but he's not on Tampa's projections, either. Is there any way you could add Manny's projection somewhere? Thanks
249/374/436 in TB (it'll appear in a couple of weeks with the prelim finals).
That Castro projection is only for 136 ABs, while Beckham's is for 553. I could definitely see Rastro hitting something like .250/.320/.460 in limited ABs.
If Sale can put up an ERA near 4.40 as a starter with lots of Ks, I'd be happy keeping him as a starter* In a perfect world, I'd like a rotation of Buehrle/Danks/Floyd/Jackson/Peavy, but who knows what's going on with Peavy. Plus, I think Crain & Ohman will pitch better than that projection. Pena too maybe. The starter depth is a bit of a concern though.
Oh hey, Jon Adkins is back in the Sox system I guess.
*- I realize Sale's projection is a mix of starter/relief.
I heard Don Cooper talking about this, and his concern was that he didn't want to jerk Sale around, moving him back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation. It's not his decision, but I can understand the theory - if they want Sale to be a starter, make him a starter. If Peavy is healthy, stash Sale in AAA to get some work.
And under normal circumstances, this would be a no-brainer. But the White Sox are "All In" for 2011, and Sale is easily better right now than all but one or two current White Sox relievers. The temptation is going to be to make him a short reliever.
Supposedly the White Sox are still talking to Freddy Garcia, but they can't guarantee him a spot in the rotation all year, so they're giving him a chance to talk to other teams.
He's the subject of one of my favorite pieces of snark. After he was sent down by Tampa Bay before the 1999 season Doug Riblet wrote:
I half expect to see a quote from Chuck Lamar: "We wish Bubba all the best, but he just doesn't fit in with our team philosophy at this time. He can hit, and we're going in a different direction."
Can you please explain, or is that an error?
I could put out the ZiPS signal at McCovey Chronicles if you prefer...
I could put out the ZiPS signal at McCovey Chronicles if you prefer...
Nah, here is fine. I think the McC guys are laughing at me rather than with me now, so I'm gonna ignore the signal for awhile!
Surkamp 5-5, 4.49 in 110.1 innings (93 ERA+). Quite good projection for a guy in the California League - that's a really unpleasant environment.
They still upset about Runzler? (I think that was just one guy)
BOOM goes the dynamite.
I have a hard time seeing how Quentin projects that well. I know he had the big 2008 but a quick Marcel gives me a 117 and I think ZiPS goes back 4 years which would bring his horrible 2007 into the equation.
ZIPS thinks Ichiro will hit under .300, but Dallas McPherson will hit 26 hrs
Well,no. ZiPS thinks that if McPherson got about 425 ML PAs he would hit 26 HR. ZiPS, if it gave thought to such trivial matters, would probably guess that McPherson only gets that many PAs if Konerko or Dunn is out for the season. And the Cell is a HR-hitter's park.
Yeah, it boosts his homers without a corresponding boost to the value of a run.
I have a hard time seeing how Quentin projects that well. I know he had the big 2008 but a quick Marcel gives me a 117 and I think ZiPS goes back 4 years which would bring his horrible 2007 into the equation.
ZiPS thinks his baseline is higher than his actual numbers because the odds of a guy with power being a true .232 BABIP (where he is the last two years), barely above the level of a pitcher, are pretty long.
That's quite a bit lower than I would have expected, particularly with regard to his BABIP (and perhaps his strikeout rate). Looking at his numbers over the last three seasons, it seemed like a great signing, but his age notwithstanding, why is ZiPS so ungenerous to him? I'm also having a bit of trouble reconciling the walk rate both with his decline in power (wouldn't pitchers start throwing him more pitches in the zone?) and with his walk rates for the past three or four seasons - this looks like 16% or so when his weighted four-year average might lead me to expect something like 14%. Is all of this stuff a combination of park factors and age?
That bullpen looks really weak. Matt Thornton is one of the best relievers in MLB, but otherwise there's a lot of guys who are questionable at best.
I don't think the bullpen looks more worrisome than the rest of the roster, which lacks reliable depth throughout.
Thornton/Santos/Crain +/- Sale form a solid core, with Pena and Ohman unlikely to be truly awful, and beyond that of course there's a field of dross. So the bullpen as currently constructed is not likely to be great but probably won't be terrible. With an addition or two, it could be excellent.
It's interesting that Flowers projects slightly better (OPS+-wise) than AJ, though that's a pretty optimistic BB total for Flowers. Not sure the kid will get a chance if Castro plays like last year...
Fair enough ... but two years of 232 BABIP ... Yikes!
To the Bat-b-r Robin!
Good lord! The man has a career 251 BABIP. I didn't even realize this was possible for a ML hitter, much less one with power.
Conveniently ... and very, very oddly ... his career BA is the same as his career BABIP.
Looking at his other numbers, it does look like the world's worst run of luck. OK, last year was in part a 22% IF/FB rate and 17% career is well over the league average of 12% and his LD% is 2% lower (hey, b-r, we probably could use one decimal place on these).
OK, now that I think of it, decimal rounding ignored, having 5% more of your FB (for a FB hitter especially) be near automatic outs and 2% fewer LDs which are, what, hits 80-90% of the time would add up to 40-50 points of BA I think.
But then if I did my math in my head right, ZiPS projects him to about a 250 BABIP. The other rates all look about right and Quentin is projected to hit a bit above his career norms (by 10 points of BA basically ... not sure where that's coming from but it's not important). But, his career OPS+ is 114 so ZiPS is projecting him to hit for his career averages in a lower offensive context? Still a bit puzzled by that but we're in the weeds now.
Pretty sure you're just being paranoid. Possibly while high.
Thanks Dan! And nahhh. They love ya. Especially that Floyd Thursby clown. He just wishes he could come up with something as good as the continuing adventures of Billy. Or Toast.
Quentin's problem might be that he's getting too much loft on his batted balls, if his very high FB% (45% for his career, as per fangraphs) and very low LD% (15.4%) are any indication. IIRC the BABIP for fly balls is lower than those of other batted balls. Does he have an uppercut swing? I don't get to see Quentin or the White Sox very much, so I can't say for sure if this is the case.
Quentin hits more towering flyballs and popups than anybody else I've seen on the White Sox. I've been hoping he could level out his swing a bit. It would certainly help if the Sox had a real hitting coach, rather than Greg Walker.
I've been hoping for quite some time that Walker would be replaced with Robin Ventura or Frank Thomas... though now that I think about it I'm not sure I want Frank trying to make everybody into front foot hitters.
This is just a guess, but he has a walk-it-back-to-the-infield throwing arm, which would hide a lot more easily in LF than in CF.
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