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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, January 27, 2011

2011 ZiPS Projections - Chicago White Sox

It’s not a world-beating team, but the White Sox are my early pick for the AL Central, edging out the Tigers and a little above the Twins.

The team’s not headed for a 95-win season, but they are generally solid without a lot of major holes, though they could use another bullpen arm.  It’s still anybody’s guess as to what Sale’s role will be, so I’m leaving him split for now (and likely will if it’s not very clear-cut at the start of the year).  The team’s depth isn’t that great, but Kenny Williams is always aggressive about improving the team, whether it’s landing Peavy, picking up Ramirez’s money, or taking a risk and picking up Alexis Rios’s contract (a much better risk than picking up Vernon Wells).  Not all of his moves work out, but the saying is Audaces fortuna iuvat, after all.

The team could improve their odds without the constant fascination with leftfielders that hit like mediocre centerfielders.  Luckily for KW and The Ozzie, they’re in the Central division and not the East.

Adam Dunn was an inspired move for the White Sox - he came far cheaper than the other top hitters that aren’t pushing 40, he can DH, and the Cell is an excellent HR park without being a big hitters’ park overall.  Signing McPherson could be sneaky useful from AAA if an emergency pops up.  He could play the field, but it’s probably safer not to let him with an injury record nearly as poor and even longer than Eric Chavez.

Next up:  Tigers

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Adam Dunn         L    DH   31   .252 .383 .539 147 497  81 125  24   1  39  98 102 190   1   1  142
Paul Konerko      R    1B   35   .273 .358 .500 133 484  70 132  24   1  28  86  62  92   1   1  126
Carlos Quentin    R    RF   28   .261 .358 .495 128 444  74 116  25   2  25  88  49  79   4   2  125
Alexis Rios       R    CF   30   .273 .321 .440 153 605  84 165  33   4  20  84  40 103  26  10  100
Dallas McPherson  L    DH   30   .226 .310 .487 105 380  51  86  17   2  26  63  44 153   5   2  106
Ramon Castro      R    C    35   .250 .309 .463  47 136  16  34   5   0   8  24  12  35   0   0  102
Gordon Beckham    R    2B   24   .264 .331 .421 156 553  79 146  38   2  15  73  49 105   8   5   99
Alexei Ramirez    R    SS   29   .279 .315 .423 154 567  75 158  24   2  18  73  31  73  12   8   95
Alejandro de Aza  L    LF   27   .262 .325 .387 109 351  51  92  20   3   6  39  30  77  15   5   89
Dayan Viciedo     R    1B   22   .263 .292 .422 156 585  74 154  24   0  23  78  19 133   4   2   88
Mark Teahen       L    3B   29   .251 .319 .397 125 438  59 110  22   3  12  49  42 113   6   4   90
Brent Morel       R    3B   24   .269 .308 .401 156 584  71 157  33   4  12  66  32 113  13   8   87
A.J. Pierzynski   L    C    34   .272 .304 .399 127 474  49 129  25   1  11  52  18  52   2   2   86
Tyler Flowers     R    C    25   .217 .326 .393 126 433  55  94  24   2  16  58  64 156   3   3   91
Juan Pierre       L    LF   33   .271 .332 .323 143 505  66 137  15   4   1  33  34  35  45  15   76
Daryle Ward       L    1B   35   .234 .314 .383  86 209  22  49  10   0   7  29  24  51   1   0   85
Mark Kotsay       L    1B   35   .254 .312 .381  90 291  28  74  15   2   6  32  25  34   2   3   84
Stefan Gartrell   R    RF   27   .228 .288 .401 137 509  63 116  21   2  21  67  39 165   4   2   81
Brandon Short     R    RF   22   .256 .301 .376 134 543  64 139  25   5  10  66  28 146   8   9   79
Jim Gallagher     L    1B   25   .239 .305 .353 152 586  63 140  30   2  11  56  52 133   4   3   75
Cole Armstrong    L    C    27   .238 .289 .369  96 336  29  80  17   0   9  39  23  78   0   0   74
Brent Lillibridge R    SS   27   .222 .285 .338 125 388  50  86  16   4   7  37  31 112  24   7   65
Omar Vizquel      B    3B   44   .255 .316 .317  83 259  24  66   8   1   2  20  23  37   7   4   70
Jordan Danks      L    CF   24   .228 .296 .341 130 505  67 115  24   3   9  39  47 181  13   6   69
John Shelby       R    CF   25   .227 .269 .369 132 502  66 114  25   5  12  52  28 144  19   9   68
Justin Greene     R    CF   25   .221 .285 .333 143 511  63 113  18   6   9  44  35 186  20  13   64
Eduardo Escobar   B    SS   22   .240 .275 .325 156 624  73 150  19   8   6  50  30 147  13   7   59
Nate Sutton       L    2B   28   .235 .290 .300 124 460  58 109  17   4   2  36  37  93  13   7   59
Javier Colina     R    2B   32   .224 .260 .343  72 254  24  57  13   1   5  24  11  53   2   3   59
Donny Lucy        R    C    28   .215 .257 .301  62 209  21  45   9   0   3  12  10  63   4   1   48

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Adam Dunn                    FR/179                          PO/188          PO/188
Paul Konerko                  FR/88
Carlos Quentin                                               PO/146          PO/146
Alexis Rios                                                          AV/140   VG/72
Dallas McPherson             AV/121          AV/142
Ramon Castro             FR
Gordon Beckham                       AV/110  AV/104  FR/112
Alexei Ramirez                       FR/116          AV/101          FR/134
Alejandro de Aza                                             VG/131  AV/146  VG/131
Dayan Viciedo                AV/126          FR/138
Mark Teahen                  AV/110  PO/114  PO/116           AV/95           FR/87
Brent Morel                                   VG/82  FR/104
A.J. Pierzynski          FR
Tyler Flowers            FR
Juan Pierre                                                   VG/55  FR/124
Daryle Ward                  FR/117                          PO/126          PO/126
Mark Kotsay                   AV/97                          FR/114   PO/56   FR/93
Stefan Gartrell                                              VG/133          AV/132
Brandon Short                                                AV/110  FR/131  AV/115
Jim Gallagher                FR/166                           AV/82  PO/129   AV/82
Cole Armstrong           FR
Brent Lillibridge                    AV/136          AV/161          AV/118
Omar Vizquel                          AV/94   AV/78   VG/51
Jordan Danks                                                 VG/104   AV/40  VG/104
John Shelby                                                  AV/114  AV/146
Justin Greene                                                VG/106  FR/121  VG/106
Eduardo Escobar                      AV/109          VG/117
Nate Sutton                          AV/127  VG/122  PO/125  AV/110  FR/131  AV/110
Javier Colina                FR/103  PO/109  PO/102  PO/107
Donny Lucy               AV

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
John Danks        L      26     3.82    15    9   32   32   200.3  189   85   21   65  161   117
Jake Peavy        R      30     3.89    10    6   20   20   120.3  110   52   14   40  119   115
Gavin Floyd       R      28     3.95    14    9   30   30   189.3  186   83   20   57  157   113
Mark Buehrle      L      32     4.30    13   10   30   30   190.3  214   91   21   45  103   104
Chris Sale        L      22     4.40    10    8   40   20   143.3  143   70   18   52  130   102
Edwin Jackson     R      27     4.55    12   11   33   33   205.7  209  104   28   80  164    98
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Freddy Garcia     R      36     4.96     5    5   15   15    81.7   90   45   12   25   52    90
Carlos Torres     R      28     5.39     7   10   29   23   137.0  147   82   17   84  101    83
Lucas Harrell     R      26     6.23     6   11   25   23   117.0  145   81   15   73   57    72
Brandon Hynick    R      26     6.26     5    9   24   24   129.3  161   90   26   48   69    71
Philip Humber     L      28     6.40     4   11   31   22   128.0  167   91   29   53   75    65
Kyle Cofield      R      24     6.67     3    6   21   16    79.7   94   59   13   60   45    67
Jeff Marquez      R      27     6.80     4   10   20   19    94.0  126   71   18   43   43    66
Nathan Jones      R      25     6.87     3    8   31   15    91.7  121   70   14   62   53    65
Anthony Carter    R      25     7.02     3    8   36   15    92.3  115   72   23   48   57    64

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Matt Thornton     L      34     2.91     6    2   61    0    58.7   46   19    5   19   75   153
Sergio Santos     R      27     3.71     3    1   56    0    53.3   50   22    5   24   57   120
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Jesse Crain       R      29     4.14     4    3   67    0    63.0   58   29    7   30   61   108
Will Ohman        L      33     4.15     1    1   60    0    39.0   35   18    5   20   40   102
Erick Threets     L      29     4.61     2    2   33    0    41.0   41   21    4   22   27    97
Tony Pena         R      25     4.72     4    4   65    1    87.7   95   46   10   32   60    95
Gregory Infante   R      23     4.85     4    4   60    0    59.3   63   32    4   38   48    92
Randy Williams    L      35     4.98     1    1   43    0    43.3   45   24    5   24   36    90
Brian Bruney      R      29     5.24     2    2   36    1    34.3   34   20    4   25   31    85
Jon Adkins        R      33     5.75     3    4   48    0    51.7   64   33    7   18   24    78
Jeff Gray         R      29     5.86     2    4   47    0    55.3   69   36    8   21   29    76
Clevelan Santeliz R      24     6.04     2    3   40    0    50.7   52   34    8   42   42    74
Jhonny Nunez      R      25     6.12     3    6   42    9    85.3  101   58   15   44   65    73
Freddy Dolsi      R      28     6.20     3    6   48    4    69.7   82   48   11   43   43    72
Greg Aquino       R      33     6.42     2    4   37    0    40.7   45   29    8   27   32    70
Scott Elarton     R      35     7.22     1    4   18    4    38.7   49   31   10   19   22    62

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Adam Dunn            .242  .366  .502  2479  8560  1377  2069   440    17   584  1526  1600  2775    67   126
Paul Konerko         .275  .349  .489  2463  8935  1263  2455   447    13   479  1519   964  1477    10   116
Alexis Rios          .273  .321  .432  1930  7479  1028  2042   422    62   215   968   498  1250   276    97
Juan Pierre          .294  .345  .360  1833  7033  1009  2071   243    88    15   489   440   441   599    83
A.J. Pierzynski      .279  .315  .412  1826  6578   743  1833   369    18   157   783   263   761    20    89
Mark Kotsay          .277  .333  .409  1747  6331   793  1755   351    49   129   707   542   737    98    97
Alexei Ramirez       .275  .310  .424  1654  6094   789  1674   238    19   211   808   319   704   119    93

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Mark Buehrle       224  179    0    4.10  549  524     3461 3771 1578  402  819 1907    111
John Danks         184  138    0    4.04  431  431     2667 2561 1197  311  911 2125    111
Gavin Floyd        159  125    0    4.30  393  381     2389 2415 1142  291  776 1904    105
Edwin Jackson      127  127    0    4.66  392  361     2255 2352 1168  300  926 1739     95
Jake Peavy         158  113    0    3.61  355  357     2203 1937  883  248  723 2231    114
Freddy Garcia      145  102    0    4.25  344  343     2150 2149 1015  268  679 1523    106

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Adam Dunn         DH     49%  29%  10%   8%   4%        Carlos Pena        Ryan Howard        Jim Gentile
Paul Konerko      1B     30%  31%  17%  16%   6%      Harold Baines       Fred McGriff        Richie Zisk
Carlos Quentin    RF     36%  35%  15%  10%   4%        Kevin Mench      Tom Brunansky     Bubba Trammell
Alexis Rios       CF     22%  21%  27%  21%  10%       Garry Maddox       Aaron Rowand    Marquis Grissom
Dallas McPherson  DH      1%   4%   7%  24%  64%       Mike Hessman       Chris Norton        Mitch Jones
Ramon Castro      C      24%  33%  23%  15%   4%      Lance Parrish    Benito Santiago         Joe Oliver
Gordon Beckham    2B     20%  17%  19%  21%  23%       Leo Cardenas      Scott Brosius         Mark Lewis
Alexei Ramirez    SS     16%  21%  30%  22%  11%       Hubie Brooks        Jack Wilson         Gene Alley
Alejandro de Aza  LF      3%   8%  12%  23%  55%      Dave Martinez          Leron Lee     Cesar Geronimo
Dayan Viciedo     1B      2%   5%   6%  19%  68%       Walter Young Luis De los Santos          Rod Allen
Mark Teahen       3B      2%   8%  14%  24%  52%       Ernest Riles         Greg Dobbs         Ron Oester
Brent Morel       3B      2%   5%  12%  24%  58%       Hubie Brooks      Vic Rodriguez        John Wehner
A.J. Pierzynski   C       5%  13%  20%  33%  29%        Jamie Burke        Chris Coste   Manny Sanguillen
Tyler Flowers     C       8%  17%  21%  28%  26%        Jeff BaileyMaximiliano Ramirez       John Gibbons
Juan Pierre       LF      1%   2%   5%  12%  81%        Jason Tyner        Tony Womack     Kerry Robinson
Daryle Ward       1B      1%   2%   4%  15%  78%           Dave May        Dann Howitt       Dusty Wathan
Mark Kotsay       1B      1%   1%   2%  11%  85%     Larry Biittner        Glenn Adams         Bill Stein
Stefan Gartrell   RF      0%   2%   3%   9%  86%        Rich Murray  Mario Encarnacion     Jeff Deardorff
Brandon Short     RF      1%   1%   2%   5%  92%     George Hinshaw        Pedro Munoz         Wil Culmer
Jim Gallagher     1B      0%   0%   1%   5%  94%      Michael Paulk           Mark Ori       Ron Witmeyer
Cole Armstrong    C       2%   5%   9%  24%  61%        Joe Ayrault   Alberto Castillo        Craig Tatum
Brent Lillibridge SS      3%   6%  13%  23%  55%      Nelson Castro          Juan Bell       Brian Bixler
Omar Vizquel      3B      0%   1%   2%   5%  92%      Jose Vizcaino      Jim Davenport         Larry Bowa
Jordan Danks      CF      0%   1%   4%  11%  84%          Ty Gainey      Vernon Thomas          Rod Myers
John Shelby       CF      1%   1%   4%  11%  84%      Luis Saturria    Cesar Hernandez     Fletcher Bates
Justin Greene     CF      0%   0%   1%   6%  93%        John Denman      Roberto Kelly        Dennis Hood
Eduardo Escobar   SS      1%   1%   4%   9%  85%    Wilton Guerrero      Carlos Garcia         Manuel Lee
Nate Sutton       2B      0%   0%   0%   2%  98%       Derek Wathan  Kevin Castleberry          John Holt
Javier Colina     2B      1%   0%   0%   2%  97%     Chris Petersen         Kevin Baez         Gary Green
Donny Lucy        C       0%   0%   0%   2%  97%        Dave Ullery      Pascual Matos   Tony DeFrancesco

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Matt Thornton     RP      80%    10%     9%       Billy Wagner      Arthur Rhodes       Gary Lavelle
Sergio Santos     RP      45%    38%    18%         Duane Ward           Jim Kern    Steve Bedrosian
John Danks        SP      68%    23%    10%        Steve Avery        Mark Mulder         Randy Wolf
Jake Peavy        SP      65%    24%    12%     Curt Schilling         Andy Benes       Kevin Appier
Gavin Floyd       SP      56%    34%    11%     Bronson Arroyo      Pascual Perez  Larry Christenson
Jesse Crain       RP      25%    48%    28%    Hector Carrasco         Dick Selma     Frank Williams
Will Ohman        RP      32%    45%    23%     Mike Remlinger        Kevin Tolar          Joe Price
Mark Buehrle      SP      37%    51%    12%         Zane Smith         Tommy John           Jim Kaat
Chris Sale        SP      12%    65%    24%        John Smiley     Jeremy Affeldt       Casey Fossum
Edwin Jackson     SP      19%    65%    16%        Kelly Downs       John Thomson        Rick Rhoden
Erick Threets     RP      20%    38%    42%         Jim Roland     Tippy Martinez         Jim Brewer
Tony Pena         RP       5%    48%    47%  Franquelis Osoria      Chad Bradford     David Wilhelmi
Gregory Infante   RP       7%    43%    50%         Alan Mills     Anthony Chavez       Tom Thurberg
Freddy Garcia     SP      17%    44%    39%          Paul Byrd     Shane Reynolds        Gil Heredia
Randy Williams    RP      12%    32%    56%      Norm Charlton      Dave Righetti        Kevin Tolar
Brian Bruney      RP       7%    25%    68%    John D’Acquisto       Calvin Jones          Pat Flury
Carlos Torres     SP       2%    33%    65%       Brett Laxton      Derrick Lewis         Jason Bere
Jon Adkins        RP       4%    19%    77%       Jack Russell       Danny Graves         Bob Miller
Jeff Gray         RP       1%    11%    89%         Ron Taylor        Carl Willis        Bryan Corey
Clevelan Santeliz RP       1%     8%    91%      Michael Doyne       Derek Aucoin       Billy Sadler
Jhonny Nunez      RP       0%     4%    96%       Andy Kimball        Brett Evert        Dave Hooten
Freddy Dolsi      RP       0%     5%    94%      Mike Bumstead      Marty McLeary         Daven Bond
Lucas Harrell     SP       0%     7%    93%      Jeff Fulchino        Edwin Morel        Jared Wells
Brandon Hynick    SP       0%     5%    95%       Brad Ziegler           Ryan Cox        Andy Ghelfi
Philip Humber     SP       0%     2%    98%      Tim McClaskey          Dave Ford      Mark DiFelice
Greg Aquino       RP       2%    10%    88%      Mike Jeffcoat            Ken Ray           Bob Long
Kyle Cofield      SP       0%     4%    96%        Edwin Morel       Randy O’Neal         Rob Purvis
Jeff Marquez      SP       0%     2%    98%     Kyle Middleton        Pat Ahearne    Brandon Emanuel
Nathan Jones      SP       0%     0%   100%     Dallas Trahern      Steve Andrade      Julien Tucker
Anthony Carter    SP       0%     0%   100%       Mike Redding       Andy Croghan        Chris Mears
Scott Elarton     RP       1%     4%    95%         Joe Haynes      Terry Mathews    Travis Driskill

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Adam Dunn                2%      44%      68%       0%       0%      87%      43%       0%
Paul Konerko            17%      31%      46%       0%       0%      38%      25%       0%
Carlos Quentin           6%      25%      46%       0%       0%      26%      19%       0%
Alexis Rios             11%       2%      10%       8%       5%      11%       1%      32%
Dallas McPherson         0%       0%       6%       0%       0%       9%       1%       0%
Ramon Castro            10%       7%      24%       0%       0%       0%       4%       0%
Gordon Beckham           7%       5%       5%      23%       1%       3%       2%       2%
Alexei Ramirez          19%       2%       7%       0%       0%       7%       2%       3%
Alejandro de Aza         9%       5%       1%       0%       2%       0%       1%       2%
Dayan Viciedo            6%       0%       9%       1%       0%      20%       2%       0%
Mark Teahen              3%       2%       2%       0%       1%       1%       0%       0%
Brent Morel              8%       0%       4%      10%       4%       3%       1%       4%
A.J. Pierzynski         14%       0%       3%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%
Tyler Flowers            0%       5%       3%       0%       0%       2%       1%       0%
Juan Pierre             11%       4%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%      95%
Daryle Ward              2%       5%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Mark Kotsay              6%       3%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Stefan Gartrell          0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       7%       0%       0%
Brandon Short            3%       1%       2%       1%       8%       1%       1%       0%
Jim Gallagher            0%       0%       0%       2%       1%       1%       0%       0%
Cole Armstrong           1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brent Lillibridge        0%       0%       1%       0%       2%       0%       0%      21%
Omar Vizquel             7%       4%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Jordan Danks             0%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
John Shelby              0%       0%       1%       0%       7%       1%       0%       9%
Justin Greene            0%       0%       0%       0%      14%       0%       0%       5%
Eduardo Escobar          1%       0%       0%       0%      31%       0%       0%       2%
Nate Sutton              0%       0%       0%       0%       4%       0%       0%       1%
Javier Colina            1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Donny Lucy               0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Matt Thornton             75%        93%        99%        11%        83%
Sergio Santos             37%        79%        85%         1%        79%
Jake Peavy                31%        83%        85%         5%        55%
John Danks                23%        87%        16%         4%        65%
Gavin Floyd               15%        81%        26%         6%        63%
Jesse Crain               20%        66%        72%         0%        61%
Will Ohman                30%        66%        81%         1%        65%
Mark Buehrle              12%        63%         2%        40%        53%
Chris Sale                 7%        60%        52%         1%        41%
Edwin Jackson              2%        47%        13%         0%        26%
Erick Threets             14%        50%         6%         1%        77%
Tony Pena                  3%        41%         1%         2%        61%
Gregory Infante            5%        36%        23%         0%        91%
Freddy Garcia              5%        32%         2%        16%        32%
Randy Williams             8%        36%        25%         0%        61%
Brian Bruney               7%        32%        47%         0%        62%
Carlos Torres              0%         8%         5%         0%        41%
Jon Adkins                 3%        14%         1%         9%        47%
Jeff Gray                  1%         8%         1%         4%        31%
Clevelan Santeliz          0%         7%        25%         0%        28%
Jhonny Nunez               0%         2%         8%         0%        13%
Freddy Dolsi               0%         3%         2%         0%        24%
Lucas Harrell              0%         1%         0%         0%        37%
Brandon Hynick             0%         0%         0%         1%         1%
Philip Humber              0%         0%         0%         1%        10%
Greg Aquino                1%         9%        20%         0%        23%
Kyle Cofield               0%         0%         0%         0%        22%
Jeff Marquez               0%         0%         0%         0%         5%
Nathan Jones               0%         0%         0%         0%        18%
Anthony Carter             0%         0%         1%         0%         0%
Scott Elarton              1%         4%         2%         2%         8%


All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Baltimore Orioles
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
Houston Astros
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers
Minnesota Twins
San Francisco Giants
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 27, 2011 at 07:49 PM | 40 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Moe Greene Posted: January 27, 2011 at 07:58 PM (#3737632)
Dan, Peavy's not 25 anymore.
   2. Cowboy Popup Posted: January 27, 2011 at 08:14 PM (#3737643)
That is a lot of career HRs for Dunn, which is not all that surprising of course. I still don't think he'll be a HOF caliber ballplayer if/when he hits that many, but it sure would be fun to watch him hit them all.
   3. Swedish Chef Posted: January 27, 2011 at 08:19 PM (#3737652)
If Dunn is fair at 1B, how does a poor fielder there look like?
   4. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: January 27, 2011 at 08:31 PM (#3737665)
Dan --

Towards the end of last season, colin at SSS put out an article essentially saying that Jackson had accumulated enough innings with the White Sox to make meaningful interpretations about certain statistics (I think he cited some work Tango has done). I also seem to recall FanGraphs putting out a similar article, although I could be mistaken. Does ZiPS simply think Jackson's time with the Sox was an abberation? Or -- more likely -- is it simply weighing heavier his previous 550+ innings (last three years) of, well, slightly-above-league-average pitching?

Also nice to see that ZiPS finally likes Gavin Floyd. His projection from last season was for 200 innings of a 96 ERA+, and a K-to-BB barely above 2-to-1. This year represents a rather marked difference.

I think (hope?) Beckham beats that projection, but given his atrocious first half last year, that's probably not all that surprising.

As always, thanks for these.
   5. BurlyBuehrle Posted: January 27, 2011 at 08:35 PM (#3737669)
Somewhat surprised to see how lukewarm ZiPS is on Alexei Ramirez's defense. My understanding was that he is now considered one of the top defensive shortstops in the AL. Is it because his pre-2010 defense was that bad, or is it something of a reaction to small sample sizes, due to his being moved around the diamond so much.

Also, sadly, if 15 is the line on Juan Pierre's caught stealings...give me the over, big time. Ozzie is going to keep giving him a permanent green light...and he's going to rack up the outs on the basepaths. The only thing that can suppress Pierre's CS is if he simply doesn't get on base very often...
   6. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 27, 2011 at 08:46 PM (#3737676)
Oops, left Jhonny Nunez's age in for Peavy. Hold on.
   7. GEB4000 Posted: January 27, 2011 at 08:47 PM (#3737678)
ZIPS thinks Ichiro will hit under .300, but Dallas McPherson will hit 26 hrs. Is that the same Dallas McPherson who last hit a homer in the majors in 2006? Career high of 8 in a season? Career total of 18?
   8. lonestarball Posted: January 27, 2011 at 08:48 PM (#3737681)
I'm assuming there's no Manny here since he signed with Tampa, but he's not on Tampa's projections, either. Is there any way you could add Manny's projection somewhere? Thanks
   9. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: January 27, 2011 at 08:52 PM (#3737683)
Also nice to see that ZiPS finally likes Gavin Floyd. His projection from last season was for 200 innings of a 96 ERA+, and a K-to-BB barely above 2-to-1.

Still lukewarm on Buehrle, though. I think he and Edwin Jackson should both be better than those projections.

I think (hope?) Beckham beats that projection, but given his atrocious first half last year, that's probably not all that surprising.

Beckham was very good in the second half of 2010 (.310/.380/.497 after the All-Star Break), but I think that a .750 OPS is a fair projection for him, all things considered. I wouldn't be surprised if he was a lot better than that, though.

The projections on Carlos Quentin and Brent Morel seem optimistic to me. I'd be thrilled if either of them did that well. Otherwise, I can't find much to quibble with.

That bullpen looks really weak. Matt Thornton is one of the best relievers in MLB, but otherwise there's a lot of guys who are questionable at best. I think they'll be forced to turn Sale into a reliever.
   10. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 27, 2011 at 08:59 PM (#3737690)
Dunn actually improved a bit in Washington at 1B.

ZIPS thinks Ichiro will hit under .300, but Dallas McPherson will hit 26 hrs. Is that the same Dallas McPherson who last hit a homer in the majors in 2006? Career high of 8 in a season? Career total of 18?

Which is a bit like saying Neftali Feliz would be a poor starter because he has a career high win total of 4. McPherson's been injured and hasn't played much, but there's never been any question about his power and he's going to a better HR environment than he's ever had in the majors (and not particularly close). And even that, he's not even projected to be average for 1B or DH.

I'm assuming there's no Manny here since he signed with Tampa, but he's not on Tampa's projections, either. Is there any way you could add Manny's projection somewhere? Thanks

249/374/436 in TB (it'll appear in a couple of weeks with the prelim finals).
   11. madvillain Posted: January 27, 2011 at 09:18 PM (#3737707)
If Castro finishes with a higher OPS+ than Beckham I will eat my hat. This team looks damn good though. ZIPS loves Sales but doesn't think MB can get back over 200 innings. Why not Dan, is it just an age variable you put in?
   12. John DiFool2 Posted: January 27, 2011 at 09:26 PM (#3737709)
I'll betcha both Konerko and Dunn are one and done (sorry for the pun) once they become Hall eligible, even if they meet those career projections.
   13. The Kentucky Gentleman, Mark Edward Posted: January 27, 2011 at 09:36 PM (#3737714)
If Castro finishes with a higher OPS+ than Beckham I will eat my hat. This team looks damn good though. ZIPS loves Sales but doesn't think MB can get back over 200 innings. Why not Dan, is it just an age variable you put in?


That Castro projection is only for 136 ABs, while Beckham's is for 553. I could definitely see Rastro hitting something like .250/.320/.460 in limited ABs.

That bullpen looks really weak. Matt Thornton is one of the best relievers in MLB, but otherwise there's a lot of guys who are questionable at best. I think they'll be forced to turn Sale into a reliever.


If Sale can put up an ERA near 4.40 as a starter with lots of Ks, I'd be happy keeping him as a starter* In a perfect world, I'd like a rotation of Buehrle/Danks/Floyd/Jackson/Peavy, but who knows what's going on with Peavy. Plus, I think Crain & Ohman will pitch better than that projection. Pena too maybe. The starter depth is a bit of a concern though.

Oh hey, Jon Adkins is back in the Sox system I guess.

*- I realize Sale's projection is a mix of starter/relief.
   14. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: January 27, 2011 at 10:06 PM (#3737728)
If Sale can put up an ERA near 4.40 as a starter with lots of Ks, I'd be happy keeping him as a starter* In a perfect world, I'd like a rotation of Buehrle/Danks/Floyd/Jackson/Peavy, but who knows what's going on with Peavy.

I heard Don Cooper talking about this, and his concern was that he didn't want to jerk Sale around, moving him back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation. It's not his decision, but I can understand the theory - if they want Sale to be a starter, make him a starter. If Peavy is healthy, stash Sale in AAA to get some work.

And under normal circumstances, this would be a no-brainer. But the White Sox are "All In" for 2011, and Sale is easily better right now than all but one or two current White Sox relievers. The temptation is going to be to make him a short reliever.

Supposedly the White Sox are still talking to Freddy Garcia, but they can't guarantee him a spot in the rotation all year, so they're giving him a chance to talk to other teams.
   15. Ron Johnson Posted: January 27, 2011 at 10:10 PM (#3737729)
Nice to see a Bubba Trammell reference -- though Carlos Quentin would probably be less than thrilled.

He's the subject of one of my favorite pieces of snark. After he was sent down by Tampa Bay before the 1999 season Doug Riblet wrote:

I half expect to see a quote from Chuck Lamar: "We wish Bubba all the best, but he just doesn't fit in with our team philosophy at this time. He can hit, and we're going in a different direction."
   16. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 27, 2011 at 10:17 PM (#3737734)
No one else will care but... what would De Aza's ODDIBE quintiles look like in center, if you don't mind?
   17. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: January 27, 2011 at 10:41 PM (#3737742)
I love the Sox's rotation and you have to think Williams will add something during the season. My pick to win the World Series which I am sure is comforting to all White Sox fans.
   18. Kurt Posted: January 27, 2011 at 10:43 PM (#3737745)
So is Chris Sale's last name pronounced like a two-for one sale, or like hot Canadian ice dancer Jamie Sale ("Sal-lay")?
   19. My guest will be Jermaine Allensworth Posted: January 27, 2011 at 11:27 PM (#3737768)
Sale away.
   20. sportznut Posted: January 28, 2011 at 12:06 AM (#3737794)
I get that Pierre isn't a natural CF, but how does he go from VG range in LF to only FR in CF? That doesn't make any sense to me really.

Can you please explain, or is that an error?
   21. Travolta19 Posted: January 28, 2011 at 12:46 AM (#3737810)
Pierre was VG/95 in LF, FR/87 in CF last year, so I think it's correct.
   22. North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan Posted: January 28, 2011 at 01:04 AM (#3737824)
Dan, I asked for an Eric Surkamp projection in the Giants ZiPS thread, but you had a nasty flu at the time.

I could put out the ZiPS signal at McCovey Chronicles if you prefer...
   23. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 28, 2011 at 02:28 AM (#3737847)
Dan, I asked for an Eric Surkamp projection in the Giants ZiPS thread, but you had a nasty flu at the time.

I could put out the ZiPS signal at McCovey Chronicles if you prefer...


Nah, here is fine. I think the McC guys are laughing at me rather than with me now, so I'm gonna ignore the signal for awhile!

Surkamp 5-5, 4.49 in 110.1 innings (93 ERA+). Quite good projection for a guy in the California League - that's a really unpleasant environment.
   24. Accent Shallow Posted: January 28, 2011 at 03:13 AM (#3737860)
I think the McC guys are laughing at me rather than with me now, so I'm gonna ignore the signal for awhile!


They still upset about Runzler? (I think that was just one guy)
   25. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: January 28, 2011 at 03:25 AM (#3737866)
I'm assuming there's no Manny here since he signed with Tampa, but he's not on Tampa's projections, either. Is there any way you could add Manny's projection somewhere? Thanks

249/374/436 in TB (it'll appear in a couple of weeks with the prelim finals).


BOOM goes the dynamite.
   26. Walt Davis Posted: January 28, 2011 at 05:03 AM (#3737910)
So Dunn's OPS+ projection is so high because the Cell is the right sort of park for him?

I have a hard time seeing how Quentin projects that well. I know he had the big 2008 but a quick Marcel gives me a 117 and I think ZiPS goes back 4 years which would bring his horrible 2007 into the equation.

ZIPS thinks Ichiro will hit under .300, but Dallas McPherson will hit 26 hrs

Well,no. ZiPS thinks that if McPherson got about 425 ML PAs he would hit 26 HR. ZiPS, if it gave thought to such trivial matters, would probably guess that McPherson only gets that many PAs if Konerko or Dunn is out for the season. And the Cell is a HR-hitter's park.
   27. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 28, 2011 at 05:32 AM (#3737921)
So Dunn's OPS+ projection is so high because the Cell is the right sort of park for him?

Yeah, it boosts his homers without a corresponding boost to the value of a run.

I have a hard time seeing how Quentin projects that well. I know he had the big 2008 but a quick Marcel gives me a 117 and I think ZiPS goes back 4 years which would bring his horrible 2007 into the equation.

ZiPS thinks his baseline is higher than his actual numbers because the odds of a guy with power being a true .232 BABIP (where he is the last two years), barely above the level of a pitcher, are pretty long.
   28. Austin Posted: January 28, 2011 at 07:56 AM (#3737961)
249/374/436 in TB


That's quite a bit lower than I would have expected, particularly with regard to his BABIP (and perhaps his strikeout rate). Looking at his numbers over the last three seasons, it seemed like a great signing, but his age notwithstanding, why is ZiPS so ungenerous to him? I'm also having a bit of trouble reconciling the walk rate both with his decline in power (wouldn't pitchers start throwing him more pitches in the zone?) and with his walk rates for the past three or four seasons - this looks like 16% or so when his weighted four-year average might lead me to expect something like 14%. Is all of this stuff a combination of park factors and age?
   29. danielj Posted: January 28, 2011 at 08:03 AM (#3737962)
That's a nice projection for Thornton. I hate keeping RPs in a Scoresheet league, but he's tempting.
   30. Papa Doc LaValliere Posted: January 28, 2011 at 08:43 AM (#3737965)
First post in ~6 yrs...better make it count...

That bullpen looks really weak. Matt Thornton is one of the best relievers in MLB, but otherwise there's a lot of guys who are questionable at best.

I don't think the bullpen looks more worrisome than the rest of the roster, which lacks reliable depth throughout.
Thornton/Santos/Crain +/- Sale form a solid core, with Pena and Ohman unlikely to be truly awful, and beyond that of course there's a field of dross. So the bullpen as currently constructed is not likely to be great but probably won't be terrible. With an addition or two, it could be excellent.

It's interesting that Flowers projects slightly better (OPS+-wise) than AJ, though that's a pretty optimistic BB total for Flowers. Not sure the kid will get a chance if Castro plays like last year...
   31. Walt Davis Posted: January 28, 2011 at 08:49 AM (#3737966)
ZiPS thinks his baseline is higher than his actual numbers because the odds of a guy with power being a true .232 BABIP (where he is the last two years), barely above the level of a pitcher, are pretty long.

Fair enough ... but two years of 232 BABIP ... Yikes!

To the Bat-b-r Robin!

Good lord! The man has a career 251 BABIP. I didn't even realize this was possible for a ML hitter, much less one with power.

Conveniently ... and very, very oddly ... his career BA is the same as his career BABIP.

Looking at his other numbers, it does look like the world's worst run of luck. OK, last year was in part a 22% IF/FB rate and 17% career is well over the league average of 12% and his LD% is 2% lower (hey, b-r, we probably could use one decimal place on these).

OK, now that I think of it, decimal rounding ignored, having 5% more of your FB (for a FB hitter especially) be near automatic outs and 2% fewer LDs which are, what, hits 80-90% of the time would add up to 40-50 points of BA I think.

But then if I did my math in my head right, ZiPS projects him to about a 250 BABIP. The other rates all look about right and Quentin is projected to hit a bit above his career norms (by 10 points of BA basically ... not sure where that's coming from but it's not important). But, his career OPS+ is 114 so ZiPS is projecting him to hit for his career averages in a lower offensive context? Still a bit puzzled by that but we're in the weeds now.
   32. Floyd Thursby Posted: January 28, 2011 at 10:32 AM (#3737972)
I think the McC guys are laughing at me rather than with me now, so I'm gonna ignore the signal for awhile!


Pretty sure you're just being paranoid. Possibly while high.
   33. North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan Posted: January 28, 2011 at 09:47 PM (#3738416)
Nah, here is fine. I think the McC guys are laughing at me rather than with me now, so I'm gonna ignore the signal for awhile!

Surkamp 5-5, 4.49 in 110.1 innings (93 ERA+). Quite good projection for a guy in the California League - that's a really unpleasant environment.


Thanks Dan! And nahhh. They love ya. Especially that Floyd Thursby clown. He just wishes he could come up with something as good as the continuing adventures of Billy. Or Toast.
   34. Delicious Cake Posted: January 28, 2011 at 10:33 PM (#3738469)
Looking at his other numbers, it does look like the world's worst run of luck. OK, last year was in part a 22% IF/FB rate and 17% career is well over the league average of 12% and his LD% is 2% lower (hey, b-r, we probably could use one decimal place on these).

Quentin's problem might be that he's getting too much loft on his batted balls, if his very high FB% (45% for his career, as per fangraphs) and very low LD% (15.4%) are any indication. IIRC the BABIP for fly balls is lower than those of other batted balls. Does he have an uppercut swing? I don't get to see Quentin or the White Sox very much, so I can't say for sure if this is the case.
   35. chisoxcollector Posted: January 29, 2011 at 01:58 PM (#3738824)
Quentin's problem might be that he's getting too much loft on his batted balls, if his very high FB% (45% for his career, as per fangraphs) and very low LD% (15.4%) are any indication. IIRC the BABIP for fly balls is lower than those of other batted balls. Does he have an uppercut swing? I don't get to see Quentin or the White Sox very much, so I can't say for sure if this is the case.


Quentin hits more towering flyballs and popups than anybody else I've seen on the White Sox. I've been hoping he could level out his swing a bit. It would certainly help if the Sox had a real hitting coach, rather than Greg Walker.

I've been hoping for quite some time that Walker would be replaced with Robin Ventura or Frank Thomas... though now that I think about it I'm not sure I want Frank trying to make everybody into front foot hitters.
   36. SuperGrover Posted: January 31, 2011 at 06:18 PM (#3739997)
I'm pretty pumped about those projections and this team. If Peavy does anything at all I think we win the central by 3 games, presuming no catastrophic injuries (as others have mentioned, the depth is terrible).
   37. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 31, 2011 at 06:44 PM (#3740030)
I get that Pierre isn't a natural CF, but how does he go from VG range in LF to only FR in CF? That doesn't make any sense to me really.


This is just a guess, but he has a walk-it-back-to-the-infield throwing arm, which would hide a lot more easily in LF than in CF.
   38. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: February 01, 2011 at 10:26 PM (#3741208)
Looking forward to the Tigers projections!
   39. madvillain Posted: February 02, 2011 at 05:28 AM (#3741447)
Slappy's big problems in the OF are lack of great instincts and an arm that would make a scout at a DIII game spit out his tobacco. Both of those are mitigated in LF and allow his athletic ability to shine through. I watched him a couple times in IF/OF before games last season, he's still got great speed and quickness, which seems borne out in the UZR data from his time in LF.
   40. Tuque Posted: February 14, 2011 at 06:07 PM (#3749935)
Hey Dan - could you tell me where to find Manny Ramirez's projection? I can't find him in the Dodgers, White Sox, or Rays projections. Is there something I'm missing?

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