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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Sunday, November 28, 2010

2011 ZiPS Projections - Cincinnati Reds

The Reds turned out to be nearly the perfect team for Dusty Baker - most of the starters were obvious and the less established players going into the season didn’t have terrible options like Willy Taveras or Paul Bako or Jeff Conine or a done Ryan Freel hanging around for Dusty Baker to fall in love with and put in the lineup regularly if a starter slumped.  The starters all played up to or exceeded expectations, which helped the case, preventing Dusty from making many major decisions as the season went on.  This helped to neutralize the worst part of Baker’s profile and the good part of Dusty, the part where veterans seem to thrive under him and nobody wants to kill him, help the Reds.

Part of that is why the Reds are probably not really a 90-win team.  While the pitching staff had this strange season with no particularly good or bad luck anywhere (with the exception of Harang, the final stats of the principals look more like projections than the product of an actual season), the Reds had pretty good fortune on offense.  There were really no big diasppointments at the plate and while nobody was shocking ahead of normal, a lot of players exceeded expectations moderately.  So while the pitching staff should be good and pretty deep (most 100+ ERA+ pitchers of any team so far) and the defense is underrated, the offense is likely to regress somewhat - it’s not really the league’s best lineup.  I’d put the Reds at about 83-87 wins right now, but the good news is in the NL Central, an 83-to-87-win team with a few lucky rolls wins the division (which is exactly what happened in 2010).

One thing that kind of makes me sad is looking at the career projections for Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen.  It seems unlikely that Edmonds will get his deserved call to the Hall of Fame and while Scott Rolen probably has a better case in the eyes of the voters, the Hall of Fame is absolutely horrific at figuring out what to do with third basemen.  Bill James’s theory was that with 3B being in the middle of the defensive and offensive spectrums, they didn’t generally have the same “storyline” that an amazing slugger or an amazing glove-guy have.  Sounds reasonable to me.  Their best bets is for older BBWAA voters to, uh, leave the voting poll and for the organization to be more open to more progressive writers.  Now, it seems rather unlikely that they get down to the level of, say, having me be in the BBWAA, but if they add enough Neyers and Laws and open-minded, younger, less-saber-but-not-stats-hostile guys in regular media, maybe they’ll have a shot.  One variable is that I think there’s a realistic (though minority) chance that the BBWAA isn’t voting on the Hall 10-15 years from now - if steroids cause a roadblock ending up with a mass of players at the 30%-40% range causing game theory neightmares, it’s in the Hall’s extreme financial interest to make sure that the inductions aren’t reduced to a trickle and will be forced to change things up.

Next up:  Milwaukee

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age    BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Joey Votto        L    1B  27   .301 .396 .540 152 544  93 164  33   2  31 105  82 124  13   5  151
Jay Bruce         L    RF  24   .269 .340 .495 154 539  86 145  25   5  29  85  59 139   7   5  123
Jim Edmonds       L    CF  41   .251 .329 .479  87 259  42  65  18   1  13  31  30  65   2   1  114
Scott Rolen       R    3B  36   .275 .342 .443 117 422  58 116  28   2  13  62  39  67   3   2  110
Daniel Dorn       R    1B  26   .253 .325 .452 110 376  52  95  23   2  16  53  35 110   1   0  107
Jonny Gomes       R    LF  30   .255 .323 .450 133 424  60 108  22   2  19  69  35 114   7   3  100
Juan Francisco    L    3B  24   .263 .298 .480 148 537  68 141  32   5  25  91  24 150   3   2  102
Brandon Phillips  R    2B  30   .272 .323 .436 153 610  90 166  30   5  20  80  41  85  21  11  102
Yonder Alonso     L    1B  24   .267 .330 .422 139 495  57 132  34   2  13  67  47 102   8   3  101
Wladimir BalentienR    RF  26   .250 .308 .456 128 436  64 109  26   2  20  65  38 107   8   3  103
Chris Heisey      R    LF  26   .259 .318 .415 140 468  68 121  25   3  14  54  35 101  12   3   96
Devin Mesoraco    R    C   23   .244 .312 .452 122 434  52 106  23   5  19  62  39 109   1   3  103
Laynce Nix        L    LF  30   .250 .303 .454 108 280  34  70  17   2  12  36  21  68   1   1  100
Drew Stubbs       R    CF  26   .247 .321 .396 152 563  86 139  26   5  16  66  59 175  33   9   92
Ryan Hanigan      R    C   30   .269 .356 .364  95 294  32  79  13   0   5  32  36  38   0   0   95
Dave Sappelt      R    CF  24   .282 .324 .405 154 617  71 174  28  12   8  58  37 105  31  21   95
Ramon Hernandez   R    C   35   .263 .327 .390  98 331  32  87  16   1   8  48  29  50   1   0   92
Todd Frazier      R    LF  25   .245 .308 .421 150 568  75 139  35   4  19  74  47 147  10   6   94
Orlando Cabrera   R    SS  36   .273 .310 .366 133 546  68 149  31   1   6  51  31  57  12   4   82
Luis Terrero      R    RF  31   .237 .292 .403  93 308  39  73  17   2  10  43  19  88   8   4   85
Zack Cozart       R    SS  25   .239 .294 .386 149 586  81 140  30   4  16  65  40 129  15   4   82
Gary Matthews     B    CF  36   .242 .310 .372  87 277  35  67  14   2   6  25  27  71   5   2   83
Sean Henry        R    LF  25   .258 .311 .368 144 511  62 132  24   4   8  54  33 103  16   9   83
Chris Valaika     R    2B  25   .267 .295 .384 147 544  58 145  30   2  10  63  22 117   3   3   82
Willie Bloomquist R    RF  33   .262 .312 .344  91 244  37  64   7   2   3  19  17  40  13   5   77
Miguel Cairo      R    3B  37   .257 .305 .357  92 230  31  59  12   1   3  26  14  33   4   1   78
Cody Puckett      R    2B  24   .227 .283 .384 149 578  67 131  35   4  16  55  39 186  15   4   78
Paul Janish       R    SS  28   .237 .311 .349 104 304  37  72  17   1   5  30  28  57   3   2   78
Kris Negron       R    SS  25   .231 .297 .336 148 563  71 130  20   6   9  39  41 140  24   8   72
Corky Miller      R    C   35   .225 .300 .356  65 191  20  43  10   0   5  28  16  38   0   1   77
Mike Costanzo     L    3B  27   .220 .286 .359 104 373  42  82  19   3   9  49  34 127   3   1   73
Chris Burke       R    CF  31   .222 .294 .330  90 288  36  64  12   2   5  26  25  55  11   3   69
Neftali Soto      R    1b  22   .234 .271 .375 154 606  63 142  28   3  17  68  27 143   1   2   73
Chris Denove      R    C   28   .241 .301 .329  75 237  24  57  12   0   3  25  18  49   2   1   71
Jake Kahaulelio   R    2B  26   .225 .284 .342 103 383  45  86  20   2   7  31  27  89   7   3   69
Wilkin Castillo   B    C   27   .237 .269 .356  96 334  37  79  15   2   7  30  12  59   7   4   68
Michael Griffin   R    RF  27   .238 .265 .361 116 374  36  89  22   3   6  33  12  72   5   5   68

Defensive Projections

Player                  CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Joey Votto                   AV/117
Jay Bruce                                                    VG/126  AV/123  EX/119
Jim Edmonds                  AV/114                                  FR/164  AV/110
Scott Rolen                                   VG/63
Jonny Gomes                                                  FR/111          PO/156
Juan Francisco               AV/123          AV/171          AV/126
Brandon Phillips                      VG/65
Yonder Alonso                FR/130                          FR/119
Wladimir Balentien                                            AV/88  FR/128  AV/152
Chris Heisey                                                 AV/139  AV/118  AV/134
Devin Mesoraco           VG
Laynce Nix                                                    VG/64  FR/215  AV/101
Drew Stubbs                                                  VG/113  AV/121  VG/113
Ryan Hanigan             AV
Dave Sappelt                                                 VG/101   AV/83
Ramon Hernandez          AV  FR/114
Todd Frazier                 AV/123  FR/141  FR/108  FR/112   AV/99
Orlando Cabrera                                       AV/97
Luis Terrero                                                 VG/256  FR/154  AV/194
Zack Cozart                                          VG/101
Gary Matthews                                                FR/142  PO/174  FR/129
Sean Henry                                                   AV/182  FR/232  AV/216
Chris Valaika                         FR/93  AV/128  FR/125
Willie Bloomquist                    AV/123  VG/125  FR/116  VG/105          AV/108
Miguel Cairo                  AV/96  AV/105  AV/113  FR/105
Cody Puckett                         FR/139          FR/126  FR/110          FR/101
Paul Janish                          AV/113  AV/111   AV/79
Kris Negron                          AV/133  VG/119  AV/138          AV/105  AV/112
Corky Miller             FR
Mike Costanzo            PO  AV/196          FR/125
Chris Burke                  FR/111  FR/101  FR/114  FR/125  AV/127  FR/103  FR/107
Neftali Soto                 AV/131          AV/179
Chris Denove             AV
Jake Kahaulelio                      AV/105  AV/121  PO/112  AV/113
Wilkin Castillo          AV          FR/155  FR/139  FR/121  FR/105
Michael Griffin                      AV/101  FR/127          AV/108  FR/102  AV/150

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Travis Wood       L     24    3.64    12    7   30   30  178.0  161   72   17   62  147  115
Edinson Volquez   R     27    3.66     8    5   20   19  108.3   90   44   11   55  115  115
Johnny Cueto      R     25    4.01    12   10   32   32  190.7  183   85   23   62  156  104
Bronson Arroyo    R     34    4.21    14   12   32   32  201.0  195   94   27   60  127  100
Mike Leake        R     23    4.34     9    8   28   27  168.0  174   81   20   54  109   97
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Daryl Thompson    R     25    4.36     3    3   14   13   64.0   64   31    8   22   44   96
Homer Bailey      R     25    4.47     8    8   28   27  155.0  155   77   18   63  124   94
Matt Maloney      L     27    4.47    10   11   29   27  161.0  169   80   22   43  116   94
Aaron Harang      R     33    4.52     9    9   24   23  143.3  153   72   20   41  114   93
Micah Owings      R     28    4.94     5    7   29   14   94.7   93   52   12   53   73   85
Sam LeCure        R     27    5.00     8   10   27   24  144.0  153   80   21   59  105   84
Justin Lehr       R     33    5.17     4    6   15   13   78.3   89   45   11   27   37   81
Ben Jukich        L     28    5.20     5    8   28   19  119.3  131   69   15   59   84   81
Jordan Hotchkiss  R     25    5.31     5    8   35   13  103.3  111   61   17   48   64   79
Bradley Boxberger R     23    5.38     6   10   38   14   90.3   95   54   12   56   80   78
Scott Carroll     R     26    5.62     4    7   20   19  105.7  129   66   14   42   45   75
Tom Cochran       L     28    5.65     5    8   24   23  116.3  130   73   17   67   71   74
Matt Klinker      R     26    5.67     6   11   26   25  133.3  152   84   23   55   90   74
Dallas Buck       R     26    5.98     2    4   10   10   43.7   54   29    7   20   20   70
Chad Reineke      R     29    6.09     5   11   31   22  125.7  150   85   25   54   75   69
Alexander Smit    L     25    6.68     2    6   17   13   66.0   74   49   13   53   49   63

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Bill Bray         L     27    3.27     1    1   39    0   33.0   26   12    4   14   39  128
Arthur Rhodes     L     41    3.38     4    2   63    0   45.3   39   17    4   18   43  124
Nick Masset       R     29    3.56     4    2   72    0   73.3   64   29    7   30   73  118
Francisco Cordero R     36    3.78     6    4   69    0   66.7   60   28    6   33   61  111
Russ Springer     R     42    3.86     1    1   40    0   30.3   28   13    4   11   29  109
Danny Herrera     L     26    3.88     5    4   68    0   67.3   66   29    7   21   51  108
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Donnie Joseph     L     23    3.93     5    4   50    0   52.7   46   23    5   31   56  107
Aroldis Chapman   L     23    4.01     9    7   49   14  103.3   86   46   11   67  122  105
Carlos Fisher     R     28    4.04     3    3   51    0   64.7   59   29    6   32   60  104
Logan Ondrusek    R     26    4.09     3    2   66    0   70.3   69   32    7   26   48  102
Jose Arredondo    R     27    4.18     4    3   48    0   51.7   46   24    6   28   51  100
Jared Burton      R     30    4.22     3    2   49    0   53.3   50   25    6   25   47   99
Enerio Del RosarioR     25    4.60     4    4   58    0   74.3   79   38    9   24   40   91
Mike Lincoln      R     36    4.78     1    1   28    0   32.0   33   17    4   15   23   88
Jordan Smith      R     25    4.88     3    4   54    0   59.0   67   32    8   19   31   86
Jason IsringhausenR     38    4.91     1    1   18    0   18.3   18   10    2   12   15   85
Philippe ValiquettL     24    4.98     2    3   53    0   59.7   61   33    6   37   42   84
Joseph Krebs      L     26    5.01     3    4   52    0   70.0   75   39    7   41   44   84
Lee Tabor         L     26    5.37     2    4   39    2   62.0   71   37    8   30   39   78
Gilbert De La VaraL     26    5.50     2    4   29    2   52.3   63   32    6   26   28   76

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Scott Rolen         .279  .360  .481  2360  8607  1371  2405   591    48   349  1446   991  1561   125   118
Jay Bruce           .258  .332  .473  2283  8011  1213  2067   365    62   410  1183   882  1941    78   111
Orlando Cabrera     .273  .317  .389  2203  8545  1115  2329   522    35   133   932   570   829   235    83
Joey Votto          .291  .376  .500  2178  7927  1194  2304   469    30   378  1348  1031  1537   158   130
Jim Edmonds         .283  .374  .525  2098  7117  1293  2014   455    26   406  1230  1028  1794    69   131
Brandon Phillips    .265  .314  .420  1815  7083   981  1875   334    53   221   895   449   999   222    92
Drew Stubbs         .247  .320  .394  1355  5009   758  1235   232    37   145   584   516  1422   228    89
Jonny Gomes         .247  .322  .444  1270  4010   560   991   201    22   181   614   368  1095    65   101

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Bronson Arroyo     160  152    1    4.31  438  403     2573 2590 1233  344  790 1675    102
Johnny Cueto       149  124    0    4.09  402  401     2361 2280 1072  302  781 1956    103
Aaron Harang       108  120    0    4.43  320  312     1926 2065  948  267  545 1575     99
Edinson Volquez     91   67    0    4.05  247  241     1320 1160  594  144  697 1352    105

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Joey Votto        1B    66%  23%   7%   4%   1%       Norm Siebern         Steve Kemp     Miguel Cabrera
Jay Bruce         RF    23%  31%  19%  16%  11%         Dave Clark    Danny Tartabull     Jesse Barfield
Jim Edmonds       CF    31%  23%  25%  15%   6%          Fred Lynn        Matt Stairs        Ken Griffey
Scott Rolen       3B    14%  26%  26%  21%  13%       Hank Majeski          Joe Randa           Art Howe
Daniel Dorn       1B     3%  14%  19%  33%  31%       Jason Dubois       Joe Vitiello          Larry See
Jonny Gomes       LF     6%  18%  19%  24%  33%     Preston Wilson         Wally Post         Dan Briggs
Juan Francisco    3B     7%  23%  27%  25%  19%        Jim Presley         Roy Howell      Jeff Hamilton
Brandon Phillips  2B    22%  18%  20%  23%  18%       Charlie Neal      Frank Bolling      Julian Javier
Yonder Alonso     1B     1%  11%  17%  35%  36%          Adam Lind        Danny Lewis       Mike Rendina
Wladimir BalentienRF     4%  15%  17%  24%  39%       Scott Morgan        Jason Perry      Ozzie Timmons
Chris Heisey      LF     3%  10%  15%  26%  46%       Lynn Garrett    Wes Chamberlain      Danny Clyburn
Devin Mesoraco    C     17%  28%  22%  21%  13%Giuseppe Chiaramont       Henry Blanco       J.D. Closser
Laynce Nix        LF     3%   9%  12%  22%  54%         Dan Briggs  John-Ford Griffin         John Valle
Drew Stubbs       CF     9%  16%  30%  28%  17%       Mark Bradley       Chris Latham      Brian Simmons
Ryan Hanigan      C      7%  25%  27%  28%  13%     Bruce Benedict          Joe Azcue       Tom Satriano
Dave Sappelt      CF     4%   7%  20%  31%  38%        Alexis Rios    Marquis Grissom       Darren Lewis
Ramon Hernandez   C     10%  18%  22%  29%  21%        Jamie Burke           Al Lopez         Spud Davis
Todd Frazier      LF     1%   4%   9%  19%  67%       Byron Gettis    John Vander Wal     Mike Restovich
Orlando Cabrera   SS     4%   8%  20%  30%  37%      Luis Aparicio       Cookie Rojas        Jim Gantner
Luis Terrero      RF     0%   2%   3%   9%  86%        John Cotton   Darrell Whitmore         Mike Kelly
Zack Cozart       SS     5%  10%  23%  30%  32%        Josh Wilson        Luis Rivera      Danny Klassen
Gary Matthews     CF     3%   4%  12%  25%  56%       Curtis Pride         So Taguchi        Devon White
Sean Henry        LF     0%   1%   2%   7%  90%       Bruce Fields         Chad Allen        Victor Mata
Chris Valaika     2B     3%   3%   6%  17%  71%      Charlie Hayes          Juan Melo       Jeff Moronko
Willie Bloomquist RF     1%   1%   3%   7%  89%         John Moses           Pete Fox      Calvin Murray
Miguel Cairo      3B     2%   3%   7%  16%  72%        Dickie Thon    Dave Concepcion     Casey Candaele
Cody Puckett      2B     3%   4%   8%  17%  68%           Jim Opie         Edwin Diaz        Steve Davis
Paul Janish       SS     2%   4%  12%  27%  56%        Greg Morris        Pedro Lopez       David Fisher
Kris Negron       SS     1%   3%  11%  24%  61%      Robert Andino      Nelson Castro      Amaury Garcia
Corky Miller      C      3%   7%  10%  21%  60%     Keith McDonald         Joe Oliver       Shawn W00t3n
Mike Costanzo     3B     0%   1%   2%   6%  90%         Seth Bynum       Sean Mcnally        Ken Bonifay
Chris Burke       CF     1%   1%   3%  10%  86%         Tony Diggs       Jarvis Brown     Manny Martinez
Neftali Soto      1b     0%   1%   1%   4%  94%       Butch Garcia        Mark Trumbo      Danny Clyburn
Chris Denove      C      1%   2%   5%  17%  76%       Mike Nickeas       Dave Parrish      Mike DiFelice
Jake Kahaulelio   2B     1%   1%   2%   6%  90%       Greg Thissen      Jason Camilli        Scott White
Wilkin Castillo   C      0%   2%   4%  12%  81%     Luis Rodriguez         Marc Ronan        Devin Ivany
Michael Griffin   RF     0%   0%   0%   0%  99%         Paul Oster          Kyle Todd    Steve Hendricks

Player            PO     TOP   MID   BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Bill Bray         RP     56%   33%   11%       Billy Wagner        Randy Myers         Mark Davis
Arthur Rhodes     RP     49%   41%   10%      Woodie Fryman        John Franco     Mike Remlinger
Nick Masset       RP     45%   47%    8%     George Frazier    Roy Lee Jackson     Joaquin Benoit
Travis Wood       SP     66%   33%    1%        Steve Avery    Justin Thompson      Andy Pettitte
Edinson Volquez   SP     60%   35%    5%         Kerry Wood        Juan Guzman         Bob Turley
Francisco Cordero RP     28%   54%   18%         Ryne Duren      Bill Campbell    Ricky Bottalico
Russ Springer     RP     40%   31%   29%           Ron Reed     Larry Andersen        Rudy Seanez
Danny Herrera     RP     27%   54%   19%        Danny Boone         Bob Baxter      Mike Jeffcoat
Donnie Joseph     RP     24%   45%   30%       Dennys Reyes      Darren Oliver       Billy McCool
Aroldis Chapman   RP     20%   57%   24%   Mickey McDermott          Ken Brett       Sandy Koufax
Johnny Cueto      SP     38%   55%    7%       Joel Pineiro     Frank Castillo        Bobby Jones
Carlos Fisher     RP     19%   48%   33%     Bobby Castillo  Scott Fredrickson     Frank Williams
Logan Ondrusek    RP     18%   52%   30%      Chad Bradford        Bob Scanlan       Mike Couchee
Jose Arredondo    RP     21%   47%   33%   Calvin Schiraldi       Steve Sharts       Toby Borland
Bronson Arroyo    SP     24%   60%   16%         Andy Ashby    Doyle Alexander     Woody Williams
Jared Burton      RP     16%   52%   32%         Billy Koch      Steve Andrade        Tyler Yates
Mike Leake        SP     19%   63%   17%            Joe Roa       Mark Littell        Joe Johnson
Daryl Thompson    SP     28%   40%   31%      Chris Reitsma      Sidney Ponson        Jeff Suppan
Homer Bailey      SP     16%   61%   23%    Manny Hernandez    Livan Hernandez           Bob Walk
Matt Maloney      SP     15%   57%   28%       Mike Sirotka      Rheal Cormier       Frank Tanana
Aaron Harang      SP     10%   51%   39%       Kevin Tapani       Dick Ruthven         Mark Clark
Enerio Del RosarioRP      7%   42%   51%        Gibson Alba     Randy McCament       Carlos Silva
Mike Lincoln      RP     10%   26%   64%         Joe Boever           Don Aase       Mike Fetters
Jordan Smith      RP      4%   23%   73%         Tim Kester       Glenn Dooner        Brian Allen
Jason IsringhausenRP     13%   19%   68%          Ray Moore       Mike Fetters    Hector Carrasco
Micah Owings      SP      1%   23%   76%     Chris Oxspring      Jim Bullinger          Ted Power
Philippe ValiquettRP      3%   26%   71%         Matt Garza    Philip Barzilla         Chad Brown
Sam LeCure        SP      3%   37%   60%       Julio Valera       Doug Brocail      Corey Thurman
Joseph Krebs      RP      2%   22%   77%    Philip Barzilla        Brian Adams       Mark Dempsey
Justin Lehr       SP      6%   27%   67%       Walt Terrell      James Baldwin        Pat Ahearne
Ben Jukich        SP      1%   26%   73%       Bruce Ruffin       Chris George        Don Collins
Jordan Hotchkiss  SP      0%    9%   91%      Beltran Perez          Jeff Shaw       Scott Gering
Lee Tabor         RP      1%   13%   86%    Brian Henderson       Tim Hamulack        Jordan Gerk
Bradley Boxberger SP      0%   13%   87%      Julio Machado         Duane Ward          Karl Best
Gilbert De La VaraRP      1%   11%   88%       Corey Hamman    Brian Henderson       Tim Hamulack
Scott Carroll     SP      0%   13%   87%       Nate Cornejo        Pat Ahearne      Mike Thompson
Tom Cochran       SP      0%   10%   90%        Jeff Tabaka   Mark Hendrickson     Jimmy Williams
Matt Klinker      SP      0%   10%   90%     Brandon Knight       Mike Wilkins  Bryan Clutterbuck
Dallas Buck       SP      2%   14%   85%     Martire Franco         Brian Bass       Denny Wagner
Chad Reineke      SP      0%    3%   97%         Steve Olin      Tim McClaskey        Doug Linton
Alexander Smit    SP      0%    2%   98%          Corey Lee        Bill Murphy    Ramiro Martinez

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Joey Votto              52%      73%      75%       8%       0%      55%      58%       6%
Jay Bruce               10%      11%      45%       0%      10%      43%      12%       1%
Jim Edmonds              6%      10%      27%       0%       0%       0%       7%       0%
Scott Rolen             17%      12%      13%       1%       1%       1%       4%       0%
Daniel Dorn              3%       4%      13%       0%       0%       1%       2%       0%
Jonny Gomes              3%       3%      14%       0%       1%       4%       2%       1%
Juan Francisco           5%       0%      31%       5%       9%      24%       1%       0%
Brandon Phillips        11%       2%       7%       2%       9%      10%       1%      15%
Yonder Alonso            7%       5%       2%       7%       0%       0%       0%       2%
Wladimir Balentien       2%       1%      15%       0%       0%       6%       1%       1%
Chris Heisey             4%       1%       3%       0%       2%       1%       1%       1%
Devin Mesoraco           1%       2%      15%       0%       8%       5%       2%       0%
Laynce Nix               4%       1%      14%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Drew Stubbs              1%       2%       1%       1%       8%       2%       0%      66%
Ryan Hanigan            15%      28%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Dave Sappelt            21%       2%       1%       3%      66%       0%       0%      57%
Ramon Hernandez         10%       7%       3%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Todd Frazier             1%       1%       3%      11%       4%       4%       0%       2%
Orlando Cabrera         13%       1%       1%       4%       0%       0%       0%       3%
Luis Terrero             1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Zack Cozart              0%       0%       1%       2%       6%       2%       0%       3%
Gary Matthews            3%       3%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Sean Henry               3%       0%       1%       0%       3%       0%       0%       2%
Chris Valaika            7%       0%       2%       2%       1%       1%       0%       0%
Willie Bloomquist       11%       3%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Miguel Cairo            10%       3%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Cody Puckett             0%       0%       1%      11%       4%       3%       0%       6%
Paul Janish              1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Kris Negron              0%       0%       0%       0%      14%       0%       0%      22%
Corky Miller             2%       3%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Mike Costanzo            0%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Chris Burke              1%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Neftali Soto             0%       0%       2%       4%       3%       9%       0%       0%
Chris Denove             2%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jake Kahaulelio          0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Wilkin Castillo          1%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Michael Griffin          1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Bill Bray                 45%        83%        95%         3%        72%
Arthur Rhodes             49%        86%        63%         5%        78%
Nick Masset               37%        86%        81%         0%        69%
Travis Wood               24%        88%        24%         1%        75%
Edinson Volquez           25%        80%        88%         0%        68%
Francisco Cordero         22%        77%        60%         0%        79%
Russ Springer             30%        71%        62%        16%        53%
Danny Herrera             21%        69%        10%        12%        76%
Donnie Joseph             18%        63%        86%         0%        75%
Aroldis Chapman           16%        68%        94%         0%        67%
Johnny Cueto               8%        69%        18%         2%        45%
Carlos Fisher             14%        60%        59%         0%        67%
Logan Ondrusek            13%        57%         2%         2%        73%
Jose Arredondo            15%        60%        72%         0%        63%
Bronson Arroyo             4%        51%         0%         8%        23%
Jared Burton              16%        53%        44%         0%        62%
Mike Leake                 2%        44%         1%         2%        46%
Daryl Thompson             9%        48%         4%         7%        50%
Homer Bailey               2%        40%        14%         0%        51%
Matt Maloney               2%        36%         4%        22%        28%
Aaron Harang               1%        25%        14%        15%        24%
Enerio Del Rosario         5%        36%         0%        11%        52%
Mike Lincoln              10%        28%        14%         2%        62%
Jordan Smith               3%        21%         0%        11%        51%
Jason Isringhausen        13%        32%        29%         1%        57%
Micah Owings               1%        16%        11%         0%        46%
Philippe Valiquett         2%        18%         4%         0%        68%
Sam LeCure                 0%        12%         3%         0%        21%
Joseph Krebs               1%        14%         0%         0%        74%
Justin Lehr                1%        13%         0%         6%        37%
Ben Jukich                 0%         6%         2%         0%        35%
Jordan Hotchkiss           0%         5%         0%         0%        12%
Lee Tabor                  0%        10%         0%         0%        48%
Bradley Boxberger          0%         8%        43%         0%        36%
Gilbert De La Vara         0%         8%         0%         0%        66%
Scott Carroll              0%         2%         0%         1%        36%
Tom Cochran                0%         2%         0%         0%        22%
Matt Klinker               0%         1%         1%         0%         7%
Dallas Buck                0%         5%         0%         1%        38%
Chad Reineke               0%         0%         1%         1%         3%
Alexander Smit             0%         0%         8%         0%         7%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 28, 2010 at 06:09 AM | 48 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Walt Davis Posted: November 28, 2010 at 07:10 AM (#3698183)
Pretty deep offense too. SS is a problem but you don't really get to "scary bad for position" until you hit guys like Frazier and Terrero.
   2. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: November 28, 2010 at 07:13 AM (#3698184)
I am reminded who is the bigger dork when I look at Corky Miller's comps.
   3. Boxkutter Posted: November 28, 2010 at 07:36 AM (#3698188)
Pretty deep offense too. SS is a problem but you don't really get to "scary bad for position" until you hit guys like Frazier and Terrero.


Well, I would take the "over" on Cozart's stats if he plays all or even most of the season in the majors. I think he can put up a season line of about 260/320/415 with homers and steals about where ZIPS projects. Since ZIPS doesn't account for much of a growth curve, I'd expect him to outperform what ZIPS thinks will happen. Honestly, I am not sure why the Reds kept Cabrera around unless it was to hope he has a hot start and keep Cozart in AAA to start the year, then trade Cabrera for some RP help or something like that, then call Cozart up around June or so.

And yes, I am a Cozart fanboy since I drafted him in the summer of 2009, thanks for asking :)
   4. AROM Posted: November 28, 2010 at 08:01 AM (#3698192)
Pretty good projection for Daniel Dorn, a guy I know pretty much nothing about. Is he Roger's kid? Of course, with position =1B, no DH, and Joey Votto on the team, ranking 5th on the team in ZIPS OPS+ will probably be the highlight of his season.
   5. vortex of dissipation Posted: November 28, 2010 at 08:29 AM (#3698193)
Excuse me for asking this, but is there a glossary somewhere that would help me to understand what the projections mean? I understand most of it, but there are two things that I don't understand. What does the number after the fielding rating mean (I'm assuming that the letters stand for excellent/very good/average/fair/poor, but what does the number in AV/117 signify)? And what do the comparisons mean? Are they the three players closest to the player being rated, or is one a "best case" scenario and another a "worst case" scenario?

Thanks for your patience. I'm sure that to those who have followed these projections for years, I look like an idiot, but to someone who's basically looking at them cold, a bit of explanation somewhere would be very helpful.
   6. Dan Posted: November 28, 2010 at 08:33 AM (#3698195)
Nice projection for Devin Mesoraco. Really good for some I've never heard of, he has a VG throw rating for catcher plus a projected 244 .312 .452 line (100 OPS+) at age 23. That seems like a pretty good player unless his defense behind the plate is lacking.
   7. Walt Davis Posted: November 28, 2010 at 08:43 AM (#3698197)
is there a glossary somewhere that would help me to understand what the projections mean?

This should clear up everything for you. :-)
   8. Dan Lee prefers good shortstops to great paintings Posted: November 28, 2010 at 08:48 AM (#3698199)
Pretty good projection for Daniel Dorn, a guy I know pretty much nothing about. Is he Roger's kid?

I'm fairly sure he is. He doesn't have a defensive rating listed, which leads me to believe he does a lot of that 'ole' ########.
   9. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 28, 2010 at 08:50 AM (#3698200)
. What does the number after the fielding rating mean (I'm assuming that the letters stand for excellent/very good/average/fair/poor, but what does the number in AV/117 signify)? And what do the comparisons mean? Are they the three players closest to the player being rated, or is one a "best case" scenario and another a "worst case" scenario?

You guessed right on the fielding ratings. Since estimating defense with a number kind of lies about the granularity we actually have, I go by the DMB five-tier system (and since it goes into DMB anyway, it makes sense). The 2 or 3 number is expected error rate compared to league-average - a player with a 100 is league average, 200 commits twice as many errors, and 50 commits half as many errors.

For the comps, ZiPS finds a large group of players as similar to the player as possible, essentially an exercise in fuzzy clustering (with the degree of "membership" having an impact). The three players listed are simply the closest 3 that ZiPS could find. It's mostly for fun, kind of the statistical version of scouting reports that mention comps. A fan that's been around for awhile might not know much about Juan Francisco, but an offensive comparison to Roy Howell or Jim Presley may be more evocative than yet another line in a big chunk of numbers.
   10. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 28, 2010 at 08:56 AM (#3698202)
I'm fairly sure he is. He doesn't have a defensive rating listed, which leads me to believe he does a lot of that 'ole' ########.

I just forgot to include it. Dorn wasn't in the initial run (neither was Bailey). He's played first, left and right and isn't completely hopeless. He's at his peak right now and would be a perfectly serviceable spare outfielder for a couple of years. Reds actually picked or stashed a few guys like that last year or two.
   11. vortex of dissipation Posted: November 28, 2010 at 09:36 AM (#3698210)
Thanks very much for explanations, Dan - much appreciated.
   12. Ken015 Posted: November 28, 2010 at 02:01 PM (#3698225)
Please project SP/RP Jeremy Horst when you have a chance. Thanks
   13. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 28, 2010 at 02:22 PM (#3698228)
How bad would Chapman be as a starter?
   14. Justin T., Director of Somethin Posted: November 28, 2010 at 03:48 PM (#3698246)
Giuseppe Chiaramonte!
   15. STEAGLES is all out of bubblegum Posted: November 28, 2010 at 04:43 PM (#3698256)
quick question (and i know how much dan loves these):

league average OPS for CIN here appears to be .764, but the league average ERA is only 4.21. that seems a bit incongruous to me. considering the fact that CIN's stadium is a ####### joke of a ballpark, i'd think the ERA+ estimates are too conservative. that is, unless the NL's average ERA is projected to be under 4.10.
   16. jar75 Posted: November 28, 2010 at 05:15 PM (#3698259)
Man, that projection looks light for Stubbs.
   17. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 28, 2010 at 05:22 PM (#3698260)
Oops, I'm going to have to fix the OPS+ for the Reds - the pitching is correct as the park's been a hair above neutral in recent years.
   18. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 28, 2010 at 05:41 PM (#3698266)
OK, all fixed.
   19. karkface killah Posted: November 28, 2010 at 06:20 PM (#3698278)
Bill Bray: Krivsky's Revenge?
   20. Ken015 Posted: November 28, 2010 at 06:47 PM (#3698289)
Bill Bray: Krivsky's Revenge?


yup and Thompson too, he was also in that deal and may yet become a decent major league starting pitcher.
   21. OBSLCommish Posted: November 29, 2010 at 03:17 AM (#3698415)
Wladimir Balentien has gone to Japan.
   22. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: November 29, 2010 at 03:19 PM (#3698557)
Gomes' OPS+ is incorrect. Not that it really matters - I hope they use him against lefties only this year. Edmonds actually might not be a bad match for that. And maybe Yonder Alonso, who's better than his projecion (broke his wrist over a year ago and it took a few months to get his power back).
   23. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 29, 2010 at 03:36 PM (#3698561)
jar:

The concern with Stubbs has to be the strikeouts. Weird combination of skills as he can run like the wind but takes a big cut at the plate.
   24. hokieneer Posted: November 29, 2010 at 04:04 PM (#3698572)
I'll take the over for Bruce and 29 HR.

I expect the offense to take a step back next year becuase of Rolen aging and the Reds are not going to get the same production from the bench again. I expect the pitching to be better than last year, with hopefully 2-3 of the young starters making big strides. Defense will be solid.

So yeah my bias subjective thinking falls in line with ZIPS.

Wonder where Dusty will try to play Francisco & Alonso?
   25. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 29, 2010 at 06:01 PM (#3698655)
The Reds have stockpiled players who are pretty much limited to the left end of the defensive spectrum - Francisco, Alonso, Frazier, Dorn - and there's no place for them to play in Cincinnati. Francisco has the range of a statue at 3B (calling him AV at 3B is laughable, with apologies to Dan) and I would expect him to go the way of Miguel Cabrera sooner rather than later. Any of those guys could be traded. If Dusty tries to play either Francisco or Alonso in the outfield, he deserves what he gets. I'd be curious to see what Frazier's offensive comps would look like if he were run as a second baseman rather than as a left fielder.

Mesoraco took a huge step forward with the bat last year. His throwing is inconsistent, the good CS% notwithstanding (there was a LOT of running in the Southern League last year, in part because there weren't a lot of good hitters there), and he still has some work to do defensively. I get the sense that he's got good game-calling skills, although that's tough to evaluate - the Mudcat pitchers did improve when he came up from A-ball a year ago, for what that's worth. I'm hanging on to my signed jersey.

Cozart's projection looks reasonable to me. He could put up the line suggested in #3, but that would be about the top of his range. There's not a *whole* lot of difference between Cozart, Negron, Valaika, and Janish - very similar skill sets, with Cozart having a touch more power.

Daryl Thompson can't stay healthy. If he could, he would be a back-end guy in the rotation, but with his history I don't see it.

The Reds don't have any young pitching with any real upside, at this point, except Chapman (and I think that the Reds will leave him in the bullpen, where's he's more likely to have value going forward IMO but less likely to live up to the hype). I like Travis Wood, but I think he's about as good as he's going to get. I don't see Bailey as particularly likely to put it all together, unless he's become more amenable to coaching. The rest of the candidates aren't all that young.

-- MWE
   26. Walt Davis Posted: November 29, 2010 at 07:11 PM (#3698723)
If Dusty tries to play either Francisco or Alonso in the outfield, he deserves what he gets.

Can they be worse than Gomes?
   27. jar75 Posted: November 29, 2010 at 07:12 PM (#3698728)
The concern with Stubbs has to be the strikeouts. Weird combination of skills as he can run like the wind but takes a big cut at the plate.


Yeah, the Ks are a concern; they always have been (which is why he always got compared to Mike Cameron). That projection would be his worst professional season of his career. I'm just surprised by how skeptical ZiPS is.
   28. TDF, situational idiot Posted: November 29, 2010 at 07:16 PM (#3698731)
The Reds don't have any young pitching with any real upside, at this point, except Chapman (and I think that the Reds will leave him in the bullpen, where's he's more likely to have value going forward IMO but less likely to live up to the hype). I like Travis Wood, but I think he's about as good as he's going to get. I don't see Bailey as particularly likely to put it all together, unless he's become more amenable to coaching. The rest of the candidates aren't all that young.

Really?

Leake (who'll be 23) and Cueto (who'll be 25) don't have "any real upside" or "aren't all that young"?
   29. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 29, 2010 at 07:17 PM (#3698733)
jar:

I cannot speak for the ZIPS methodology, but it's becoming more common for analysis to place a greater negative on large strikeout totals. Even more so than before. Just too hard at the big league level to hit effectively when a guy is not making contact a large percentage of the time.
   30. TDF, situational idiot Posted: November 29, 2010 at 07:27 PM (#3698739)
Just too hard at the big league level to hit effectively when a guy is not making contact a large percentage of the time
Yet, his BABIP in '10 was a realistic .330, essentially the same as '09's .325 and below his minor league .351.
   31. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 29, 2010 at 07:49 PM (#3698763)
TDF:

I am not here to toss darts at any Reds player or Drew in particular. I am simply sharing thoughts on the projection.

I am pre-empting any spat so common to Reds threads where either their fans or NL Central fans seem determined to take issue/offense with any singular comment.

If it's not Drew it's Dusty. It's always something.
   32. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 29, 2010 at 07:54 PM (#3698767)
Leake (who'll be 23) and Cueto (who'll be 25) don't have "any real upside" or "aren't all that young"?


I said what I meant. I don't see either as particularly likely to develop beyond what they are right now (middle of the rotation guys).

-- MWE
   33. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: November 29, 2010 at 08:14 PM (#3698786)
I agree on Leake. Cueto's got a bit more in him, I think.
   34. TDF, situational idiot Posted: November 29, 2010 at 08:52 PM (#3698814)
I am pre-empting any spat so common to Reds threads where either their fans or NL Central fans seem determined to take issue/offense with any singular comment.
Because you're always right and never throw darts (like at washed-up, fat, lazy Adam Dunn), right?

Regardless, my issue isn't with the comment, it's with the thought that looking only at a player's K rate will tell you anything. Stubbs' BABIP tells you he isn't being particularly lucky (or unlucky), so his success must be elsewhere - his speed probably leads to a very high IFH% (12% last year, 13.7% for his career), for instance.
   35. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 29, 2010 at 09:16 PM (#3698827)
TDF:

Regarding Dunn you fail to mention that I was the first one to acknowledge that he had addressed the weight issue AND that the guys in the radio booth were being unduly harsh in their commentary.

And more recently I was the one giving credit for his efforts when other posters took the stance that the team was just lucky.

I work to be evenhanded.

And as for the strikeout rate I did not mean to suggest that it was the only thing but that it was the leader in the clubhouse. But I also expect Dan to chime in to declare that I am off base relative to the ZIPS approach and why Stubbs projection is at a level that some find surprising.

Stubbs strikes out a lot. Some players can have success and others have their careers short-circuited by it.
   36. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 29, 2010 at 10:04 PM (#3698877)
The issue with Stubbs is that when he's not striking out he hits a lot of fly balls, and outside of Cincinnati those fly balls turn into outs. His road ISO is .130; his in-play ISO on the road is .061. In the GABP, those numbers are .236 and .108.

I see Stubbs's power output as something of a phantom of the ballpark; I don't think he's that good.

-- MWE
   37. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 29, 2010 at 10:09 PM (#3698884)
Mike:

Boy, are you in for it NOW!!
   38. jar75 Posted: November 30, 2010 at 02:19 AM (#3698997)
The issue with Stubbs is that when he's not striking out he hits a lot of fly balls, and outside of Cincinnati those fly balls turn into outs. His road ISO is .130; his in-play ISO on the road is .061. In the GABP, those numbers are .236 and .108.

I see Stubbs's power output as something of a phantom of the ballpark; I don't think he's that good.

Well Hittracker certainly doesn't agree with that theory (http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2010_4515&type=hitter&sortm=ballpark&sort=asc). His average true distance was 401.9. 14 of his HRs were over 400 feet long, and all but three was over 375 feet long. He also hit 9 of his 22 HRs on the road, and has always been praised for his power potential in scouting reports.
   39. Walt Davis Posted: November 30, 2010 at 11:42 AM (#3699102)
OK, I did it in my head but I think ZiPS still has him as a 330 BABIP. What ZiPS doesn't believe is the power. I would guess this is because of his poor power numbers in the minors in 2008 (140, most of the season at A+) and first half 2009 (092 at AAA). That's about 1000 PA of an MLE ISO that I'm going to guess comes to about 100-110. Add 800 ML PAs at about 180 and maybe a smidgen of regression and I'm guessing you get an ISO around the projected 150.
   40. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: November 30, 2010 at 02:20 PM (#3699128)
OK, I did it in my head but I think ZiPS still has him as a 330 BABIP. What ZiPS doesn't believe is the power. I would guess this is because of his poor power numbers in the minors in 2008

I ran my old system for Stubbs using only his MLB numbers and it pegged him for roughly the same as 2010, maybe even a little better. Adding in MLEs for 2009 gives a projection similar to Dan's. Adding in 2008 actually didn't change much of anything from there.

So I'm guessing the relatively poor projection has a lot more to do with his minor league numbers than the strikeouts.
   41. TDF, situational idiot Posted: November 30, 2010 at 03:26 PM (#3699148)
Mike:

Boy, are you in for it NOW!!
Mike responded with some analysis; you responded with "I'm not trying to start a fight, I'm just denigrating another Reds player and saying I'm fair because I once said something nice about one of their players".

The issue with Stubbs is that when he's not striking out he hits a lot of fly balls, and outside of Cincinnati those fly balls turn into outs. His road ISO is .130; his in-play ISO on the road is .061. In the GABP, those numbers are .236 and .108.

I see Stubbs's power output as something of a phantom of the ballpark; I don't think he's that good.
Yet, the projection thinks he'll hit worse this season than he did just on the road last year. If he's being helped by his home park, shouldn't he hit better overall than he has just on the road in the past?

Voros is probably right about the poor projection...

I ran my old system for Stubbs using only his MLB numbers and it pegged him for roughly the same as 2010, maybe even a little better. Adding in MLEs for 2009 gives a projection similar to Dan's. Adding in 2008 actually didn't change much of anything from there.

So I'm guessing the relatively poor projection has a lot more to do with his minor league numbers than the strikeouts.
If I remember correctly, Bill James' projection uses just MLB numbers; his '11 projection for Stubbs also closely mimics his '10 numbers.
   42. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 30, 2010 at 06:47 PM (#3699316)
the projection thinks he'll hit worse this season than he did just on the road last year. If he's being helped by his home park, shouldn't he hit better overall than he has just on the road in the past?


It depends on where last season - and the minor league seasons before that - fit into the range of likely performances that a hitter with Stubbs's skill set would generate.

Based on what we learned from Stubbs's minor league performance, last year's major league performance would be somewhere in the top of his range of likely performance. Now, it could be true that Stubbs improved in 2010 by more than a typical player of his skill set and age would improve year-to-year, in which case the major league performance is probably closer to the middle of his range than the top of his range and the James and Voros projections which use only MLB data will be closer to his actual 2011 output than ZiPS will be. It's also possible that 2010 was at or near the top of Stubbs's likely performance range - in which case the probability of his repeating 2010 is small and the 2011 performance will be something closer to what ZiPS is projecting. Most likely, there are a combination of factors at play - some of which are reflective of Stubbs's skill set and some of which are reflective of other factors - and what Stubbs does next year will be dependent on how those factors interact.

The main thing that I see when looking at Stubbs is that he doesn't hit many doubles and triples relative to HRs (he's close to 1-1), and he doesn't have a high percentage of non-HR EBH (around 20%). Both of those are indicators that he doesn't have a lot of power growth coming.

-- MWE
   43. TDF, situational idiot Posted: November 30, 2010 at 08:33 PM (#3699402)
Mike -

Thanks for your input. I was looking for more than "he strikes out alot".

I agree that '10 may be the top of his performance, especially if you look at his minor league numbers (which you and ZiPS do). I know there've been a couple of articles about Justin Upton and expectations for young players to progress, but it still doesn't "look right" when you see a couple of guys like Bruce and Stubbs projected to take significant steps backwards at their ages.

EDIT: With the new projection numbers, Bruce doesn't look to take a "significant" step back, but he doesn't progress any, either. Still "looks" wrong.
   44. denDekker, Mattsui (jemile weeks) Posted: November 30, 2010 at 11:57 PM (#3699548)
Yonder Alonso sighting!
   45. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 01, 2010 at 01:04 AM (#3699577)
Bruce has something of the same problem at the major league level as does Stubbs - somewhat low power production on non-HR EBH and lots of fly balls - but in his case the minor league numbers give more reason for optimism.

I have to wonder if there isn't something specific that the Reds are doing with their hitters that's leading to the fly ball rates. Bruce has actually hit more fly balls (exclusive of line drives) than grounders, which is *very* rare.

-- MWE
   46. TDF, situational idiot Posted: December 01, 2010 at 02:37 AM (#3699629)
I have to wonder if there isn't something specific that the Reds are doing with their hitters that's leading to the fly ball rates. Bruce has actually hit more fly balls (exclusive of line drives) than grounders, which is *very* rare.
To me, Bruce has quite the upper-cut.

Two theories (OK, wild-assed guesses):

1. The Reds don't think Bruce or Stubbs can hit for average, so they told them to swing for the fences.
2. The players think GABP is a particularly homer-happy park, and swing accordingly.

Bruce showed his power in the minors (slugging .500 or better everywhere except 81 PA in Billings), but Stubbs' power was only "projectable" until he got to the bigs (we were told over and over again about his "light tower power").
   47. Ken015 Posted: December 06, 2010 at 11:36 PM (#3704353)
Any idea on SP/RP Jeremy Horst yet? Thanks
   48. Rays&Sox; Posted: December 07, 2010 at 12:16 AM (#3704388)
3-3, 4.59, 68.2 IP, 71 H, 8 HR, 32 BB, 52 K, ERA+ 91 for Horst

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