Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, November 15, 2010

2011 ZiPS Projections - Cleveland Indians

First, the good news.  Carlos Santana crushed AAA pitchers to the extent that the Indians couldn’t possibly leave him down there any longer without paying for psychiatric visits of opposing pitchers.  He came up and hit 260/401/467 and while he’s not quite that good, he’s very good.  Shin-Soo Choo now has a 144 OPS+ over the last 3 years - he’s now a good candidate for Most Underrated Player, but not in the Garret Anderson vein where he was called that for years without being underrated in any remotest sense of the word.  The Indians have a bunch of interesting infield prospects that, while not future stars, have potential to be average players.  Travis Hafner was pretty healthy and while not worth $11.5 million, has put his embarrassing 2008 farther in the rearview mirror.

As the Indians finished 69-93, you have to know that I wouldn’t let you get away without the bad news.  ZiPS doesn’t know what to make of Grady Sizemore, but I don’t think anyone else does, either.  ZiPS was never a fan of Matt LaPorta and remains in the non-fan category and there are no real impact bats on the farm other than Santana (if he still counts).  And there’s the pitching.  Poor Pitching Pummeled: Prognosis Paxil Post-Haste!

Next up:  Washington

Oracle on Twitter


Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age    BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Shin-Soo Choo     L    RF  28   .284 .381 .467 137 507  78 144  30   3  19  80  71 122  17   6  131
Carlos Santana    B    C   25   .252 .369 .438 133 464  77 117  28   2  18  77  87 108   6   2  120
Grady Sizemore    L    CF  28   .249 .348 .445  93 373  59  93  20   4  15  62  51  91  18   5  115
Travis Hafner     L    DH  34   .251 .352 .415  99 342  41  86  20   0  12  46  47  79   1   1  109
Michael Brantley  L    CF  24   .281 .345 .370 157 638 101 179  26   5   7  53  63  74  33   9   96
Asdrubal Cabrera  B    SS  25   .279 .338 .390 150 567  77 158  33   3   8  59  47 100  13   5   99
Matt LaPorta      R    1B  26   .247 .330 .425 136 485  64 120  25   2  19  65  54 104   1   2  105
Jordan Brown      L    LF  27   .271 .316 .402 120 465  50 126  33   2   8  58  29  77   3   2   95
Shelley Duncan    R    LF  31   .230 .313 .413 115 378  47  87  18   0  17  60  43 103   2   0   97
Nick Weglarz      L    LF  23   .233 .328 .393 116 425  58  99  23   3  13  50  55 110   4   3   96
Jason Kipnis      L    2B  24   .261 .323 .388 112 449  67 117  23   5   8  56  35 105   5   5   94
Jason Donald      R    2B  26   .249 .322 .365 113 422  55 105  23   4   6  36  39 112  10   2   88
Josh Rodriguez    R    SS  26   .249 .324 .374 100 374  48  93  20   3   7  41  42 107   6   4   91
Andy Marte        R    3B  27   .246 .298 .406 106 313  35  77  16   2  10  38  23  63   1   2   90
Ezequiel Carrera  L    CF  24   .265 .333 .341 125 464  65 123  14   6   3  41  43 100  24  11   85
Cord Phelps       B    2B  24   .262 .331 .369 144 553  70 145  29   6   6  52  53 110   8  11   92
Lonnie Chisenhall L    3B  22   .240 .298 .383 148 595  81 143  28   3  17  84  43 128   3   1   85
Lou Marson        R    C   25   .238 .328 .339 128 425  53 101  23   1   6  40  55 102   8   2   83
Jose Constanza    L    CF  27   .261 .315 .320 122 460  67 120  12   6   1  32  36  79  28   7   75
Trevor Crowe      B    CF  27   .252 .309 .345 133 493  66 124  26   4   4  44  39  94  21   7   79
Jayson Nix        R    3B  28   .225 .293 .384 107 346  42  78  17   1  12  40  28  88   8   3   84
Luis Valbuena     L    2B  25   .240 .311 .367 143 491  65 118  26   3  10  51  50 105   8   6   85
Brian Buscher     L    3B  30   .242 .314 .343  83 265  26  64  10   1   5  30  27  42   1   1   80
Wes Hodges        R    1B  26   .246 .291 .365 127 499  50 123  25   2  10  53  30 116   4   2   78
Matt McBride      R    1B  26   .238 .281 .379 137 530  59 126  31   1  14  68  26  96   0   2   79
Chris Gimenez     R    C   28   .220 .301 .352  93 304  37  67  14   1   8  30  34  88   2   1   78
Brian Horwitz     R    LF  28   .244 .310 .333  61 180  21  44   8   1   2  20  16  30   1   1   76
Beau Mills        L    1B  24   .229 .279 .351 138 542  56 124  29   2  11  71  35 128   1   2   71
Josh Phelps       R    1B  33   .199 .272 .353  44 136  15  27   6   0   5  14  12  39   0   0   69
Luke Carlin       B    C   30   .210 .307 .317  81 252  33  53  10   1   5  27  34  75   3   3   72
Juan Apodaca      R    C   24   .220 .293 .305  72 246  22  54   9   0   4  20  23  71   1   0   64
Mark Grudzielanek R    2B  41   .257 .313 .257  20  74   7  19   0   0   0   4   5   9   1   0   58
Wyatt Toregas     R    C   28   .212 .272 .329  68 231  18  49   9   0   6  24  17  48   1   1   64
Damaso Espino     R    C   28   .218 .270 .258  73 248  20  54   7   0   1  20  17  34   0   0   46
Mike Redmond      R    C   40   .214 .267 .262  28  84   7  18   4   0   0   6   5  13   0   0   46

Defensive Projections

Player             CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Shin-Soo Choo                                              AV/113          AV/113
Carlos Santana     AV
Grady Sizemore                                                     AV/54
Travis Hafner
Michael Brantley           AV/111                          VG/83   FR/74
Asdrubal Cabrera                   AV/65           FR/112
Matt LaPorta               AV/139                          FR/110          AV/111
Jayson Nix                         VG/97   AV/155  FR/130  AV/97           AV/97
Jordan Brown               AV/159                          AV/111          FR/111
Shelley Duncan             FR/120                          FR/113          FR/113
Nick Weglarz                                               AV/186          FR/186
Jason Kipnis                       AV/196                  AV/126  FR/126
Jason Donald                       AV/105  AV/105  FR/131
Josh Rodriguez                     AV/137  AV/137  AV/151  AV/137
Andy Marte                 AV/140          AV/99
Ezequiel Carrera                                           VG/116  VG/186  VG/116
Cord Phelps                        AV/128
Lonnie Chisenhall                          VG/153  FR/159  
Lou Marson         VG                    
Jose Constanza                                                     AV/152  AV/78
Trevor Crowe                                               VG/78   FR/162  AV/78
Luis Valbuena                      AV/80   AV/80   FR/134
Brian Buscher              FR/98           FR/100
Wes Hodges                 AV/129          FR/93
Matt McBride       PO      FR/148                          AV/131          AV/131
Chris Gimenez      AV      AV/110          FR/124          AV/96           FR/116
Brian Horwitz                                              AV/110          FR/132
Beau Mills                 AV/136          PO/120
Josh Phelps                FR/137                          FR/137          FR/137
Luke Carlin        AV      AV/134
Juan Apodaca       AV
Mark Grudzielanek                  AV/95
Wyatt Toregas      AV
Damaso Espino      AV      FR/120
Mike Redmond       FR
Jared Goedert                      FR/171  AV/146

DISCLAIMER:  BY READING THE PITCHING PROJECTIONS BELOW, YOU ARE CERTIFYING 
THAT YOU ARE NOT PREGNANT, HAVE A HEART CONDITION AND THAT YOU OR ANY 
CLOSE RELATIVE ARE NOT ANY CLEVELAND INDIAN PITCHER THAT IS NOT CHRIS PEREZ.  
READER ALSO AGREES, AS CONDITION IN ORDER TO READ BELOW TEXT, THAT YOU 
INDEMNIFY DAN SZYMBORSKI, JIM FURTADO, AND ANYONE WHO OWNS OR IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE BASEBALL THINK FACTORY AGAINST ALL DAMAGES ARISING FROM READING THE 
BELOW TEXT INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO SUICIDE, DEPRESSION, DIARRHEA, 
DRY-MOUTH, DIVIDE-BY-ZERO ERROR, AND THE IMMEDIATE COMPLETE DISINTEGRATION 
OF THE MILKY WAY GALAXY.

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Justin Masterson  R     26    4.37    11   10   31   31  183.3  188   89   16   76  152   97
LEAGUE AVERAGE—————————————————————————————————————96
Fausto Carmona    R     27    4.56    12   12   32   32  187.3  196   95   19   75  114   93
Mitch Talbot      R     27    4.76     9   10   24   24  132.3  148   70   12   52   78   89
Carlos Carrasco   R     24    4.87     9   11   31   31  173.7  187   94   24   65  129   87
Justin Germano    R     28    4.92     6    8   37   17  126.3  142   69   16   35   77   86
Jeremy Sowers     L     28    5.13     6    8   28   17  108.7  126   62   12   42   56   83
Aaron Laffey      L     26    5.17     6    8   34   19  116.7  137   67   10   56   63   82
Josh Tomlin       R     26    5.22     9   12   29   26  148.3  162   86   25   51   93   81
Alex White        R     22    5.26     9   12   27   26  138.7  150   81   19   66   83   81
Scott Lewis       L     27    5.40     2    3   10   10   43.3   49   26    7   16   31   79
David Huff        L     26    5.56     9   14   29   29  155.3  183   96   24   58   92   76
Jeanmar Gomez     R     23    5.64     8   13   28   28  151.7  179   95   22   65   89   75
Hector Rondon     R     23    5.80     5    8   18   18   90.0  109   58   16   31   65   73
Paolo Espino      R     24    5.82     7   13   29   23  131.3  151   85   23   61   86   73
Zach McAllister   R     23    5.89     7   13   26   26  136.0  172   89   21   50   72   72
Scott Barnes      L     23    6.17     6   12   28   28  131.3  150   90   22   78   94   69
Corey Kluber      R     25    6.41     6   13   30   29  146.0  186  104   21   76  109   66
Yohan Pino        R     27    6.46     5   11   32   21  124.0  161   89   23   52   75   66
Nick Hagadone     L     25    6.48     2    4   20   14   50.0   55   36    6   51   40   65
Eric Berger       L     25    6.51     4    8   22   21   94.0  112   68   13   72   62   65
Kelvin De La Cruz L     22    6.67     4    9   20   20   85.0  100   63   14   66   57   64

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Chris Perez       R     25    3.15     4    2   67    0   65.7   51   23    6   31   74  135
LEAGUE AVERAGE————————————————————————————————————- 108
Tony Sipp         L     27    4.12     2    2   58    0   54.7   46   25    8   31   62  103
Joe Smith         R     27    4.19     3    2   66    0   53.7   49   25    5   29   43  101
Jensen Lewis      R     27    4.28     4    4   61    0   75.7   74   36    8   34   66   99
Jess Todd         R     25    4.39     4    3   59    0   65.7   65   32    8   27   61   97
Rafael Perez      L     29    4.48     4    4   74    0   70.3   76   35    6   27   56   95
Vinnie Pestano    R     26    4.59     3    3   52    0   49.0   51   25    4   24   40   92
Frank Herrmann    R     27    4.60     2    3   61    0   74.3   82   38    8   25   41   92
Josh Judy         R     25    4.84     3    4   43    0   57.7   62   31    7   26   50   88
Zach Putnam       R     23    4.86     3    4   39    7   76.0   88   41    7   26   51   87
Hector Ambriz     L     27    5.17     2    3   59    0   69.7   81   40    9   26   55   82
Mike Gosling      L     30    5.50     3    4   33    2   54.0   65   33    6   24   37   77
Shane Lindsay     R     26    5.65     2    3   32    1   36.7   35   23    3   42   36   75
Steven Wright     R     26    6.06     3    6   42   10   90.7  115   61   14   36   54   70

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Asdrubal Cabrera    .271  .331  .383  2269  8545  1124  2313   479    39   133   891   725  1396   164    95
Shin-Soo Choo       .279  .369  .447  1781  6610   943  1846   389    42   211   972   837  1394   183   122
Carlos Santana      .242  .353  .410  1826  6409   944  1548   372    24   220   964  1105  1274    65   108
Grady Sizemore      .257  .348  .446  1583  6349  1014  1630   353    68   238   891   793  1361   244   113
Travis Hafner       .270  .370  .479  1352  4702   683  1270   299    10   221   784   667  1057    14   127

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO    ERA+
Fausto Carmona     126  135    0    4.55  364  333     2012 2094 1018  198  820 1235     94

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Shin-Soo Choo     RF    57%  26%   9%   5%   3%    Willie Crawford      George Altman        Chili Davis
Carlos Santana    C     64%  25%   7%   3%   0%     Darrell Porter        Mark Bailey        Erik Pappas
Grady Sizemore    CF    55%  24%  16%   5%   1%        Gary Geiger     Gary Thomasson    Adolfo Phillips
Travis Hafner     DH     7%  23%  23%  30%  17%       Kevin Millar       Lyle Overbay          J.T. Snow
Michael Brantley  CF    16%  20%  30%  24%  11%       Gerald Young        Juan Pierre       Johnny Damon
Asdrubal Cabrera  SS    28%  29%  26%  13%   5%       Marty Marion        Brent Gates      Yunel Escobar
Matt LaPorta      1B     3%  16%  20%  33%  29%          J.T. Snow        Jim Bonnici      Scott McClain
Jordan Brown      LF     1%   6%  13%  26%  54%         Mike Morse    Garret Anderson        Pete Dalena
Shelley Duncan    LF     3%  11%  14%  25%  47%         Adam Hyzdu       Jason Dubois     Harvey Pulliam
Nick Weglarz      LF     3%   9%  12%  19%  57%    Marvin Lowrance     Billy McMillon          Bo Dodson
Jason Kipnis      2B    12%  13%  19%  26%  30%         Bobby Rose     Robby Thompson       Martin Prado
Jason Donald      2B     7%  12%  20%  30%  30%     Robby Thompson         Nick Green         Jed Hansen
Josh Rodriguez    SS     8%  17%  32%  26%  17%          Jon Debus       Jason Donald         Nick Green
Andy Marte        3B     1%   8%  15%  26%  49%     Howard Nichols      Erik Peterson         Matt Macri
Ezequiel Carrera  CF     4%   7%  17%  31%  41%    Herm Winningham          Alex Cole        Milt Cuyler
Cord Phelps       2B     5%   6%  11%  24%  54%         Ron Oester      Chris Pittaro      Derrel Thomas
Lonnie Chisenhall 3B     1%   5%  12%  22%  59%       Scott Cooper          Wes Helms      Howard Battle
Lou Marson        C      4%  14%  23%  36%  24%       Joe Lawrence      Lou Palmisano         Bob Henley
Jose Constanza    CF     2%   4%  12%  28%  55%       Alex Sanchez        David Hulse     Kerry Robinson
Trevor Crowe      CF     1%   3%  14%  32%  50%         John Moses        Bryan House        Brian McRae
Jayson Nix        3B     1%   5%  11%  22%  62%          Tim Olson     Glenn Williams     Howard Nichols
Luis Valbuena     2B     4%   6%  11%  23%  56%        Greg Norton  Chris Lombardozzi       Bobby Morris
Brian Buscher     3B     1%   2%   5%  14%  77%     Johnny Burnett       Mike Cubbage         Tim Krauss
Wes Hodges        1B     0%   0%   0%   6%  94%        Rich Murray     Danny Matienzo       Bryan Lahair
Matt McBride      1B     0%   0%   1%   7%  92%      Emil Drzayich     Charley Carter       Butch Garcia
Chris Gimenez     C      2%   6%  11%  29%  53%       B.J. Waszgis       Danny Ardoin       Ray Stephens
Brian Horwitz     LF     0%   1%   1%   6%  93%       Nick Alvarez     Hunter Bledsoe       Eric Nielsen
Beau Mills        1B     0%   0%   1%   4%  96%         Eric Welsh      Travis Hinton        Billy Owens
Josh Phelps       1B     0%   0%   1%   3%  96%   Darrell Whitmore      Alan Cockrell       Scott Ullger
Luke Carlin       C      1%   3%   6%  18%  72%       Danny Ardoin        Jack Fimple      Jayhawk Owens
Juan Apodaca      C      1%   2%   3%  10%  85%        Sean McCraw       Doug Lindsey       Mike Nickeas
Mark Grudzielanek 2B     0%   0%   1%   3%  95%         Pete Suder       Miguel Cairo      Jim Davenport
Wyatt Toregas     C      2%   2%   3%  11%  83%   Brandon Marsters     Charlie Greene     Gustavo Molina
Damaso Espino     C      0%   0%   0%   1%  99%       Pedro Grifol       Chris Tremie       Hector Ortiz
Mike Redmond      C      0%   0%   0%   2%  98%        Raul Chavez          Bob Boone          Tony Pena

Player            PO     TOP   MID   BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Chris Perez       RP     62%   35%    4%    Armando Benitez      Jose Valverde       Mike Jackson
Tony Sipp         RP     17%   50%   33%           Tom Hall        Ron Villone         Don Carman
Joe Smith         RP     19%   45%   36%          Mark Acre      Doug Bochtler       Bryce Florie
Jensen Lewis      RP     10%   52%   38%    Derrick Turnbow       Mike Hartley          Eric Hull
Justin Masterson  SP     22%   62%   15%      Jason Schmidt      Aaron Heilman       Matt Clement
Jess Todd         RP     11%   48%   42%    Kyle Farnsworth         Dan Miceli      Chad Ricketts
Rafael Perez      RP      8%   51%   41%         Matt Young        Danny Boone      Mark Holzemer
Fausto Carmona    SP     11%   58%   31%        John Stuper       Andy Hawkins        Gary Wilson
Vinnie Pestano    RP      9%   40%   50%           Sal Urso        Brad Salmon      Jay Robertson
Frank Herrmann    RP      9%   35%   55%          Tim McNab      Tony Phillips           Jeff Tam
Mitch Talbot      SP      9%   49%   42%         Mike Scott           Ed Wojna        Don Welchel
Josh Judy         RP      4%   32%   64%        Esteban Yan      Doug Sessions      Darren Holmes
Zach Putnam       RP      2%   31%   66%     Denny Harriger  Franquelis Osoria     David Wilhelmi
Carlos Carrasco   SP      4%   46%   50%         Mike Saipe      Mark Brownson      Luke Prokopec
Justin Germano    SP      1%   25%   74%      Brian Meadows        Matt Ginter        Tony Arnold
Jeremy Sowers     SP      3%   31%   66%     Jimmy Anderson          Dave Otto         Greg Kubes
Hector Ambriz     RP      1%   19%   80%         Bryan Ward      Jesse Carlson     Erasmo Ramirez
Aaron Laffey      SP      2%   31%   67%       Jake Chapman    Scott Sauerbeck       Heath Murray
Josh Tomlin       SP      1%   27%   72%      Kevin McGehee      Greg Perschke        Ricky Bones
Alex White        SP      1%   25%   74%      Adam Peterson        Mike Morgan        Mike Fyhrie
Scott Lewis       SP      8%   29%   63%       Mike Linskey         Bryan Ward       John Cerutti
Mike Gosling      RP      1%   14%   85%        Buddy Groom      John Cummings       Ricky Horton
David Huff        SP      0%   13%   87%     Heath Phillips     Michael Bacsik        Darrell May
Jeanmar Gomez     SP      0%   11%   89%     Bronson Arroyo       Casey Daigle      Scott Randall
Shane Lindsay     RP      1%   14%   84%          Bill Bene         Jeff Smith       Billy Sadler
Hector Rondon     SP      1%   13%   86%      Mike Schooler      Rusty Meacham        Scott Lewis
Paolo Espino      SP      0%    6%   94%     Brandon Knight       Danny Tamayo       Jose Acevedo
Zach McAllister   SP      0%    6%   94%        Jason Jones        Andy Ghelfi       Paul Quinzer
Steven Wright     RP      0%    2%   98%       Nick McCurdy     Ron Rightnowar      Brian Sweeney
Scott Barnes      SP      0%    3%   97%     Rafael Quirico        Mike Raczka      Sean Thompson
Corey Kluber      SP      0%    1%   99%         Kevin Hart       Brian Rogers     Travis Baptist
Yohan Pino        SP      0%    1%   99%      Mark Nussbeck         Ron Jensen       Pete Janicki
Nick Hagadone     SP      0%    5%   95%      Morris Madden    Adrian Burnside        Joe Messman
Eric Berger       SP      0%    2%   98%       Carlos Perez        Jason Saenz       Greg Cadaret
Kelvin De La Cruz SP      0%    1%   99%    Steve Bourgeois     John Rosengren        Jason Saenz

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Shin-Soo Choo           28%      60%      25%       3%       2%       5%      32%      10%
Carlos Santana           3%      40%      10%       1%       1%       4%      14%       0%
Grady Sizemore           3%      16%      11%       0%       3%       1%       7%       8%
Travis Hafner            5%      23%       5%       0%       0%       0%       5%       0%
Michael Brantley        18%      11%       1%       2%       8%       1%       2%      57%
Asdrubal Cabrera        19%       8%       1%       9%       2%       0%       1%       4%
Matt LaPorta             1%       5%       4%       0%       0%       4%       2%       0%
Jordan Brown            11%       1%       0%       5%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Shelley Duncan           0%       2%       3%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%
Nick Weglarz             0%       6%       2%       0%       2%       0%       1%       0%
Jason Kipnis             6%       3%       2%       0%       9%       0%       1%       0%
Jason Donald             1%       2%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       0%
Josh Rodriguez           2%       4%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Andy Marte               3%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Ezequiel Carrera         8%       7%       0%       0%      14%       0%       0%      19%
Cord Phelps              5%       4%       1%       3%      12%       0%       1%       0%
Lonnie Chisenhall        1%       0%       1%       3%       2%       5%       1%       0%
Lou Marson               0%       4%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       2%
Jose Constanza           5%       2%       0%       0%      13%       0%       0%      36%
Trevor Crowe             2%       1%       0%       1%       3%       0%       0%      11%
Jayson Nix               0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Luis Valbuena            1%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       2%
Brian Buscher            3%       3%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Wes Hodges               0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Matt McBride             0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Chris Gimenez            0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brian Horwitz            5%       4%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Beau Mills               0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Josh Phelps              0%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Luke Carlin              0%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Juan Apodaca             0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Mark Grudzielanek       20%      13%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Wyatt Toregas            0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Damaso Espino            0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Chris Perez               54%        95%        94%         0%        68%
Tony Sipp                 12%        52%        96%         0%        34%
Joe Smith                 13%        56%        23%         0%        76%
Jensen Lewis               7%        49%        42%         0%        54%
Justin Masterson           3%        52%        22%         0%        81%
Jess Todd                  8%        51%        58%         1%        53%
Rafael Perez               6%        45%        16%         1%        82%
Fausto Carmona             1%        29%         0%         0%        71%
Vinnie Pestano             6%        41%        22%         0%        71%
Frank Herrmann             7%        39%         2%        11%        60%
Mitch Talbot               2%        23%         1%         0%        82%
Josh Judy                  4%        29%        38%         0%        47%
Zach Putnam                2%        28%         1%         5%        76%
Carlos Carrasco            0%        16%         5%         0%        24%
Justin Germano             1%        17%         0%        18%        37%
Jeremy Sowers              0%        10%         0%         1%        61%
Hector Ambriz              1%        16%        13%         3%        42%
Aaron Laffey               0%        11%         0%         0%        84%
Josh Tomlin                0%         7%         0%         1%         6%
Alex White                 0%         5%         1%         0%        23%
Scott Lewis                2%        16%         8%         8%        31%
Mike Gosling               1%        11%         4%         1%        56%
David Huff                 0%         1%         0%         0%        13%
Jeanmar Gomez              0%         1%         0%         0%        21%
Shane Lindsay              1%        11%        65%         0%        78%
Hector Rondon              0%         3%         4%         4%        12%
Paolo Espino               0%         1%         0%         0%         8%
Zach McAllister            0%         0%         0%         1%        17%
Steven Wright              0%         1%         0%         0%        19%
Scott Barnes               0%         0%         2%         0%        10%
Corey Kluber               0%         0%         3%         0%        18%
Yohan Pino                 0%         0%         0%         0%         6%
Nick Hagadone              0%         1%        18%         0%        59%
Eric Berger                0%         0%         0%         0%        29%
Kelvin De La Cruz          0%         0%         1%         0%        14%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 15, 2010 at 10:22 PM | 35 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 15, 2010 at 10:33 PM (#3690456)
Jared Goedert is at 226/292/356 (he didn't hit at all the previous 2 years). AV defense with a lot of errors.
   2. andrewberg Posted: November 15, 2010 at 10:47 PM (#3690476)
I'm surprised to see Brantley's defense rated as Fair. He looked very rangy to me when I saw him play against MN, and the announcers raved about him. Are the stats uniformly against the notion that he's a plus defender out there who could push Grady to a corner?
   3. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: November 15, 2010 at 10:55 PM (#3690484)
Chisenhall and Carlin request defensive projections.
Thanks for adding ERA+ to the 'average' dividing line.
Jeebus, that's not good pitching.
   4. bads85 Posted: November 15, 2010 at 10:59 PM (#3690488)
Are the stats uniformly against the notion that he's a plus defender out there who could push Grady to a corner?


Yes. He is ####### atrocious. The flight paths of fruit flies are straighter than the the paths he takes to balls. His next career at Big O Tires will start shortly.
   5. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: November 15, 2010 at 11:16 PM (#3690513)
Hard to believe this team was one win from the World Series just 3 years ago. They're basically at the bottom of the rebuilding cycle right now.

How are the hitters sorted, I thought it was by OPS+, but LaPorta's 105 is listed below a 99 and a 96.
   6. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: November 15, 2010 at 11:21 PM (#3690518)
RC/27 or some such thing. Look at the differences in SB/CS...
   7. caprules Posted: November 15, 2010 at 11:22 PM (#3690520)
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27
   8. Dan Lee is some pumkins Posted: November 15, 2010 at 11:47 PM (#3690545)
I'm holding out hope they replace Chief Wahoo with a variation of this as the logo of the 2011 Cleveland Indians.
   9. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 15, 2010 at 11:51 PM (#3690551)
OK, I think I have the defense all correct now.
   10. Greg K Posted: November 15, 2010 at 11:52 PM (#3690553)
I'm holding out hope they replace Chief Wahoo with a variation of this as the logo of the 2011 Cleveland Indians.

I was very proud of myself for using my finely honed skills of deduction to determine what episode that was from the first time I saw it!
   11. Ken015 Posted: November 16, 2010 at 12:35 AM (#3690585)
Where may we find the MLB park factors which are considered when doing these projections?
   12. Dale H. Posted: November 16, 2010 at 01:03 AM (#3690603)
I'm holding out hope they replace Chief Wahoo with a variation of this as the logo of the 2011 Cleveland Indians.
You don't know how sure I was that the link was going to be to this.
   13. JoeHova Posted: November 16, 2010 at 01:16 AM (#3690613)
I was very proud of myself for using my finely honed skills of deduction to determine what episode that was from the first time I saw it!

And you're not going to share what you deduced?
   14. Dan Lee is some pumkins Posted: November 16, 2010 at 01:52 AM (#3690634)
You don't know how sure I was that the link was going to be to this.
I was considering that. Also this.
   15. Natty Boh Posted: November 16, 2010 at 01:55 AM (#3690635)
If you added back Sabathia and Lee the pitching would still be bad.
   16. Greg K Posted: November 16, 2010 at 01:57 AM (#3690638)
And you're not going to share what you deduced?

Elementary my dear Data.

It certainly has the feel of a courtroom drama, which leaves several options open. It is unlikely to be "Measure of a Man" as Riker and Picard were arguing opposite sides, and thus not sitting beside one another. It's certainly not "Devil's Due" as Riker was aboard the Enterprise for that episode, also they didn't appear to have any tables in that courtroom as far as I can recall. "The Drumhead" is another court based episode...but they used a room on the Enterprise which this does not appear to be (as we shall see this was a hasty and technically incorrect conclusion). Also this room is far brighter than the one in "The Drumhead", which was pretty shadowy, to go along with Norah Satie's rather clandestine witch-hunt.

The only logical choice left is "A Matter of Perspective". Riker and Picard have probably just seen some damning evidence of a holo-deck simulation of Riker hitting on Dr. Apgar's wife shortly before his untimely death. (After looking it up to confirm it's actually been photoshopped as Riker and Picard don't ever face palm at the same time.)
   17. Frisco Cali Posted: November 16, 2010 at 03:13 AM (#3690669)
"Measure of a Man"...

probably my favorite episode
   18. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: November 16, 2010 at 04:57 AM (#3690752)
Shin-Soo Choo now has a 144 OPS+ over the last 3 years - he's now a good candidate for Most Underrated Player, but not in the Garret Anderson vein where he was called that for years without being underrated in any remotest sense of the word.

I read this and thought Dan made a typo. I knew Choo was good and underrated, but I thought more in the sense that he was an all around player with a mid 120s OPS+ who got overlooked due to the broad base of skills. I had no idea he had been that good of a hitter the past 3 years despite having him on my fantasy team every one of those years. Wow.
   19. Greg K Posted: November 16, 2010 at 10:22 AM (#3690838)
"Measure of a Man"...

probably my favorite episode

All the more impressive in that it was season two, before they really found their stride. I like how Maddox and Data patched things up and kept up a long running correspondence afterwards.
   20. Walt Davis Posted: November 16, 2010 at 11:44 AM (#3690843)
INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO SUICIDE, DEPRESSION, DIARRHEA,
DRY-MOUTH, DIVIDE-BY-ZERO ERROR, AND THE IMMEDIATE COMPLETE DISINTEGRATION
OF THE MILKY WAY GALAXY.


how about laughing uncontrollably?

I mean, yikes-a-mama, that's worse pitching than the Pirates!

Is there any point to turning Perez into a starter?

You're being a little hard on LaPorta I think. ZiPS has him at a 105 OPS+ with average defense -- that won't get confused with Albert Pujols but he's hardly horrible. I mean for a team whose pitching staff will soon be pictured in cigarette package warnings, LaPorta's a pretty minor problem.
   21. Juan V Posted: November 16, 2010 at 12:17 PM (#3690845)
Can someone run a sim of this pitching + the A's offense?
   22. Cabbage Posted: November 16, 2010 at 03:21 PM (#3690883)
probably my favorite episode

Good, but it's no Darmok.
   23. Barnaby Jones Posted: November 16, 2010 at 03:58 PM (#3690896)
Darmok? Really?
   24. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 16, 2010 at 04:04 PM (#3690901)
Dayton Moore and Willie Bloomquist at the negotiating table. Jesse James with a full bag of money. Orioles April 1988. Lambda Lambda Lambda at homecoming. Randy Smith his eyes red. Delta Airlines spokesman flight.
   25. Cabbage Posted: November 16, 2010 at 06:47 PM (#3691089)
Sokath, his eyes uncovered!
   26. Greg K Posted: November 16, 2010 at 06:57 PM (#3691100)
I'm with Cabbage, Darmok is a great episode.
   27. Greg K Posted: November 16, 2010 at 07:03 PM (#3691106)
One of the funnest nights I've had in my entire life was when a couple friends got together to play a Star Trek drinking game. You drink any time a character does something that is quintessential to themselves. (Data giving an ETA, Worf grinding his teeth, the Picard maneouvere, ordering Earl Grey, Troi being useless). But the most glorious was "Riker taking a manly pose".

The episode in question was "Chain of Command" where Jellicoe took over while Picard was in a Cardassian prison. Jellicoe has been dicking the crew around, changing shift rotations on them, and he calls Riker into his ready-room. And immediately all of us get on the edge of our seats, because if Riker does his patented leg-swing over the chair to sit on it backwards we have to drink...and it's just the kind of disrespect the uptight Jellicoe deserves (after giving Troi a talking to for her inappropriate uniform). So there is an audible "will he!" silence, and then BAM, he does it! And my brother's girlfriend (who has never watched Star Trek) asks "why would he do that?" and my brother emphatically answers "why WOULDN'T HE!"

It may be a fairly nerdy story, but to me it summed up all that I find comforting about Star Trek...the utter familiarity with the characters to the point where even their body language can express themselves.
   28. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: November 16, 2010 at 07:45 PM (#3691154)
Love the Brautigan reference, Dan Lee. I was at a used bookstore yesterday, picked up an edition w TFIA, In Watermelon Sugar, and a set of poems.
   29. Cabbage Posted: November 16, 2010 at 07:53 PM (#3691160)
Greg, yes.
   30. Barnaby Jones Posted: November 16, 2010 at 08:16 PM (#3691188)
The aliens in Darmok are completely preposterous; there's no way that a species with such a handicapped means of communication and inability to conceive of even the simplest idea in its own terms could ever accomplish anything noteworthy, much less develop space age technology. The meat of the story between Picard and the Captain was good, but my main take away from it was "what a ridiculous premise."
   31. Greg K Posted: November 16, 2010 at 08:33 PM (#3691216)
It feels like a cop out because what Star Trek usually tries to do is bring a measure of plausbility to its stories (relatively speaking in the science fiction/fantasy world) but I guess I'm just such a fan of that notion of language that I don't worry too much about the practicalties of it (never mind how the universal translator is able to determine words like "at" and "the" out of their supposedly intelligible language).

It's more of a "concept" than a "details" episode. Of course, I may be impartial because of the fact that allegorical language has always fascinated me. There's no way to substantiate it, but I've always felt that early modern people expressing themselves in Biblical or classical references (or for that matter my friends and I using Simpsons or Star Trek references) understood one another with a precision that we can't get at just using plain old English.
   32. Jagfire Posted: November 18, 2010 at 02:14 AM (#3692515)
Nationals, Blue Jays and Rays up next. Can't wait!
   33. Dan Lee is some pumkins Posted: November 18, 2010 at 02:27 AM (#3692526)
Thanks, Walewander. The Scarlatti Tilt is probably my favorite work of fiction. Brautigan was pretty friggin' awesome.

Gotta go - I think there's a salve salesman at my door.
   34. thetailor Posted: November 22, 2010 at 11:54 PM (#3695657)
Maybe they'll take a chance on fixing Oliver Perez!
   35. Travolta19 Posted: December 06, 2010 at 05:22 PM (#3703901)
Dan, are you going to do a projection for Anthony Reyes? Thanks.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Don Malcolm
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Page rendered in 0.6198 seconds
66 querie(s) executed