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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, December 09, 2010

2011 ZiPS Projections - Colorado Rockies

A lot of people may not have noticed, thanks to someone leaving the door open in the humidor or something, but the Rockies were a lot more than Jimenez, Gonzalez, and Tulowitzki in 2010 and despite finishing 12th in the NL in ERA, were 2nd in ERA+ behind the San Francisco Giants.

There’s a lot of organizational pitching depth, but the offense does need to stay healthy as the upper minors don’t have a lot of spares - a lot rides on Gonzalez and Tulo.  CarGo may have been a bit overrated during his Triple Crown run, but he’s still and excellent player, though clearly below the Pujols/Votto elite going forward.  ZiPS actually has Tulowitzki earning his contract extension, so the Rockies shouldn’t be too worried about it being a repeat of the Todd Helton marathon (for one, Tulowitzki is younger than Helton was).

They can’t match the Giants starters, but the Rockies are more prepared for injuries to pitchers than San Francisco is and it should be an exciting divisional race, especially if the Dodgers can come up with a better leftfielder than combining Jay Gibbons and Tony Gwynn Jr. into one lousy player.

Next up:  Braves

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age    BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Carlos Gonzalez   L    LF  25   .306 .354 .533 156 589 101 180  35   9  27 103  44 127  23   7  121
Troy Tulowitzki   R    SS  26   .292 .363 .520 144 538  92 157  32   5  27  95  60  99  13   6  121
Seth Smith        L    LF  28   .272 .348 .482 136 371  57 101  22   4  16  59  42  72   5   1  108
Chris Iannetta    R    C   28   .242 .355 .457  91 289  39  70  16   2  14  52  43  78   0   0  104
Dexter Fowler     B    CF  25   .271 .361 .418 150 521  85 141  30  13   7  49  70 127  21   9   97
Ian Stewart       L    3B  26   .248 .332 .462 145 459  70 114  21   4  23  76  53 138   8   3   99
Jason Giambi      L    1B  40   .234 .363 .421  86 209  26  49  12   0   9  42  38  54   1   0   99
Jose Lopez        R    2B  27   .291 .318 .453 156 616  78 179  41   1  19  95  23  58   4   3   93
Ty Wigginton      R    1B  33   .271 .331 .450 130 471  61 129  27   1  18  66  36  77   1   3   96
Todd Helton       L    1B  37   .266 .364 .396 106 376  45 100  20   1   9  41  59  69   0   0   93
Ryan Spilborghs   R    RF  31   .266 .342 .414 125 331  44  88  18   2   9  43  37  73   6   5   91
Matt Miller       R    RF  28   .280 .340 .388 137 536  70 150  28   3   8  78  47  93   3   1   85
Charles Blackmon  L    CF  24   .273 .324 .412 124 512  66 140  29   6  10  61  33  82  22  11   86
Brad Eldred       R    1B  30   .237 .291 .469 113 409  51  97  24   1  23  69  25 123   5   2   89
Bronson Sardinha  L    RF  28   .253 .319 .417 105 379  44  96  22   5  10  50  37  81   7   3   85
Chris Nelson      R    SS  25   .259 .315 .399  91 328  46  85  16   3   8  46  25  68   7   3   80
Wilin Rosario     R    C   22   .254 .295 .426  86 319  33  81  15   2  12  48  18  78   2   1   81
Eric Young        B    2B  26   .256 .331 .346 117 433  69 111  17   5   4  29  42  88  38  12   72
Jordan Pacheco    R    C   25   .270 .330 .373 111 440  49 119  23   2   6  64  35  49   5   5   78
Cole Garner       R    LF  26   .251 .303 .411 106 394  50  99  23   5  10  42  23 101   8   6   79
Jay Payton        R    LF  38   .263 .297 .385 122 395  44 104  23   5   5  51  18  48   8   2   72
Michael McKenry   R    C   26   .238 .309 .391 113 407  42  97  24   1  12  53  38 103   2   4   76
Daniel Mayora     R    3B  25   .260 .309 .373 119 453  46 118  27   3   6  46  28  98  11   9   72
Kazuo Matsui      B    2B  35   .247 .301 .350 107 389  53  96  17   4   5  34  29  63  14   3   65
Travis Metcalf    R    3B  28   .238 .290 .382 120 421  48 100  25   3  10  54  31  95   2   2   69
Jonathan Herrera  B    2B  26   .261 .323 .329 132 444  56 116  13   4   3  38  40  65  11   6   66
Chris Frey        L    CF  27   .253 .297 .348 116 356  37  90  18   5   2  28  21  63   9   3   63
Tim Wheeler       L    CF  23   .228 .297 .363 121 496  69 113  19   6  12  58  43 112  14   8   67
Hector Gomez      R    SS  23   .252 .276 .387  66 266  28  67  14   2   6  28   8  57   5   5   66
Paul Lo Duca      R    1B  39   .250 .311 .324  38 108  10  27   5   0   1  14   8  12   0   0   62
Omar Quintanilla  L    SS  29   .237 .300 .324  65 173  20  41  10   1   1  15  15  39   1   1   59
Ryan Harvey       L    RF  26   .210 .255 .378  90 315  28  66  15   1  12  42  18 117   3   2   58

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Carlos Gonzalez                                               VG/76  AV/115   AV/90
Troy Tulowitzki                                       VG/65
Seth Smith                                                    AV/96  PO/128  AV/114
Chris Iannetta           FR
Dexter Fowler                                                        AV/134
Ian Stewart                          PO/126  AV/126          AV/114
Jason Giambi                 PO/146
Jose Lopez                           AV/121   VG/89
Ty Wigginton                 AV/174  PO/134   PO/96
Todd Helton                   AV/76
Ryan Spilborghs                                               FR/89  FR/143  FR/195
Matt Miller                                                   AV/92  PO/110   FR/78
Charles Blackmon                                             VG/127  VG/215
Brad Eldred                  FR/149          PO/119                          FR/126
Bronson Sardinha                                              AV/98  PO/133  FR/142
Chris Nelson                         AV/128  AV/125  FR/208
Wilin Rosario            VG
Eric Young                           VG/158                  AV/154  AV/182
Jordan Pacheco           AV
Cole Garner                                                  AV/172  FR/180  AV/103
Jay Payton                                                    AV/95   PO/75  AV/107
Michael McKenry          AV
Daniel Mayora                        AV/192  AV/121  AV/205
Kazuo Matsui                          FR/96          PO/113
Travis Metcalf               AV/106  FR/122  FR/100
Jonathan Herrera                      AV/84  AV/109   AV/81
Chris Frey                                                   AV/116   AV/90  AV/118
Tim Wheeler                                                          AV/181  AV/111
Hector Gomez                                         VG/165
Paul Lo Duca             FR
Omar Quintanilla                     AV/115  AV/118  FR/106
Ryan Harvey                                                  AV/136          AV/136

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Ubaldo Jimenez    R     27    3.06    18    7   34   34  220.7  179   75   13   93  214  153
Jhoulys Chacin    R     23    3.93    13    8   33   25  146.7  131   64   14   76  134  119
Jorge de la Rosa  L     30    3.98    12    7   26   24  142.3  129   63   15   64  139  117
Jason Hammel      R     28    4.14    11    8   33   31  187.0  198   86   19   47  142  113
Aaron Cook        R     32    4.48    10    8   26   26  152.7  167   76   15   51   77  104
Jeff Francis      L     30    4.50     6    4   19   19  110.0  119   55   13   32   71  104
Esmil Rogers      R     25    4.69     8    7   32   23  142.0  155   74   15   55   99  100
Felipe Paulino    R     27    4.84     5    5   19   14   87.3   91   47   10   41   72   97
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Samuel Deduno     R     27    5.01     6    6   20   18   91.7   93   51   10   62   68   93
Christian FriedricL     23    5.02     5    5   21   21   98.7  105   55   13   51   78   93
Bruce Billings    R     25    5.24     8   10   30   20  113.3  123   66   16   59   81   89
Juan Nicasio      R     24    5.24     9   10   25   25  149.3  176   87   22   44   92   89
Kurt Birkins      L     30    5.45     4    5   29   12   71.0   83   43   10   31   41   86
Greg Reynolds     R     25    5.63     4    6   16   16   80.0  100   50   11   25   32   83
Greg Smith        L     27    5.74     5    7   22   22  111.3  125   71   20   55   67   81
Cory Riordan      R     25    5.83     7   10   28   26  160.7  200  104   28   56   95   80
Alan Johnson      R     27    5.97     7   11   28   26  149.3  192   99   23   56   71   78
Josh Muecke       L     29    6.13     6   11   27   23  126.3  155   86   20   62   66   76

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Huston Street     R     27    3.36     6    3   59    1   59.0   50   22    6   18   62  139
Rafael Betancourt R     36    3.53     4    2   65    0   58.7   51   23    7   16   67  133
Matt Belisle      R     31    3.71     6    3   65    0   77.7   77   32    7   18   63  126
Matt Reynolds     L     26    3.95     5    3   60    0   66.0   63   29    7   24   56  118
Octavio Dotel     R     37    4.22     4    3   62    0   59.7   53   28    8   30   66  111
Matt Daley        R     29    4.22     2    1   52    0   49.0   47   23    6   21   45  111
Manuel Corpas     R     31    4.25     4    3   55    0   59.3   62   28    6   19   43  110
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Joe Beimel        L     34    4.44     3    2   68    0   46.7   50   23    5   18   27  105
Manny Delcarmen   R     29    4.60     3    3   65    0   60.7   58   31    8   32   51  102
Franklin Morales  L     25    4.84     3    3   63    0   61.3   56   33    8   44   54   97
Jamey Wright      R     36    4.91     4    4   57    0   69.7   74   38    7   34   46   95
Rex Brothers      L     23    4.93     2    2   44    0   42.0   39   23    5   34   36   95
Scott Rice        L     29    5.08     2    2   48    0   51.3   55   29    4   34   30   92
Andrew Johnston   R     27    5.20     3    3   58    0   55.3   65   32    6   25   27   90
Jimmy Gobble      L     29    5.31     1    1   20    0   20.3   21   12    3   11   17   88
Casey Weathers    R     26    5.34     1    1   32    0   28.7   27   17    4   25   27   88
Edgmer Escalona   R     24    5.50     3    4   62    0   70.3   72   43   15   34   60   85
Juan Rincon       R     32    5.54     3    4   49    0   52.0   55   32    6   35   42   84
Matt Wilhite      R     29    5.86     2    2   43    0   58.3   71   38   10   22   34   80
Damian Moss       L     34    6.00     3    5   37    5   57.0   67   38    6   43   35   78
Nick Bierbrodt    L     33    6.62     1    1   34    0   35.3   42   26    6   25   22   71

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Troy Tulowitzki     .280  .347  .479  2294  8674  1364  2426   471    72   371  1375   878  1418   161   107
Carlos Gonzalez     .291  .340  .505  2251  8467  1370  2463   480   108   372  1375   626  1707   238   112
Jason Giambi        .279  .402  .518  2187  7165  1220  1999   406     9   429  1437  1360  1526    22   140
Todd Helton         .317  .416  .538  2149  7689  1359  2441   568    37   351  1322  1309  1109    36   132
Jose Lopez          .276  .305  .425  1951  7633   901  2104   459    19   214  1071   293   768    46    88
Ian Stewart         .245  .329  .450  1623  5052   737  1238   240    37   241   805   585  1421    70    96
Chris Iannetta      .235  .346  .432  1150  3678   464   864   193    24   161   616   530   867     1    96

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Ubaldo Jimenez     191  108    0    3.71  437  438     2779 2328 1146  179 1238 2613    126
Aaron Cook         130  109    0    4.52  383  352     2173 2473 1092  207  691  971    104
Jorge de la Rosa   129  106    0    4.63  369  296     1758 1718  904  209  845 1604    100

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Carlos Gonzalez   LF    38%  34%  14%   9%   5%       Dwight Smith       Lloyd Moseby        Leon Durham
Troy Tulowitzki   SS    74%  16%   8%   2%   0%   Frankie Crosetti       Jeff Blauser        Toby Harrah
Seth Smith        LF    11%  26%  22%  22%  19%     Mike Maksudian        Beau Allred         Randy Bush
Chris Iannetta    C     29%  34%  18%  13%   6%         Brian Deak         Sal Fasano         Tom Wilson
Dexter Fowler     CF    13%  17%  29%  26%  15%        Milt Cuyler       Junior Felix        Devon White
Ian Stewart       3B     7%  20%  25%  25%  23%      Willie Greene        Josh Fields       Keith Ginter
Jason Giambi      1B     4%  10%  12%  26%  48%   Harmon Killebrew         Jeff Manto      Robin Ventura
Jose Lopez        2B    11%  13%  18%  26%  32%          Ken Reitz     Bill Mazeroski        Eric McNair
Ty Wigginton      1B     1%   6%   9%  28%  55%       Jose Guillen      Dan Rohrmeier       Glenn Wilson
Todd Helton       1B     1%   5%   9%  26%  59%       Wally Joyner          J.T. Snow    Scott Hatteberg
Ryan Spilborghs   RF     1%   4%   7%  17%  70%      Shane Spencer        Russ Morman     Jason Michaels
Matt Miller       RF     0%   2%   4%  13%  81%       Kevin Romine      Jorge Padilla      Brian Horwitz
Charles Blackmon  CF     4%   7%  17%  29%  44%        Jim Wawruck         Jim Steels        Pat Watkins
Brad Eldred       1B     0%   3%   7%  25%  65%        John Nelson      Chris Hatcher        John Cotton
Bronson Sardinha  RF     1%   3%   5%  13%  78%           Ted Wood     Nathan Panther     Wynter Phoenix
Chris Nelson      SS     4%   8%  21%  31%  36%      Jose Castillo     Travis Dawkins     Nelson Johnson
Wilin Rosario     C      4%  15%  18%  26%  37%      Ryan Luzinski     Craig Faulkner          Bob Geren
Eric Young        2B     2%   5%  10%  23%  61%          John Holt      Harry Chappas    Edwin Rodriguez
Jordan Pacheco    C      2%   8%  12%  30%  49%       Tom Wieghaus      Rafael Pujols        Jamie Burke
Cole Garner       LF     0%   1%   1%   5%  93%          Matt Cimo      Mike Stellern   Darrell Nicholas
Jay Payton        LF     1%   1%   1%   5%  93%        Dan Gladden    Gerald Williams        P.J. Forbes
Michael McKenry   C      2%   4%   8%  25%  61%      Marc Sullivan     Jeff Ontiveros     Jonathan Still
Daniel Mayora     3B     0%   1%   2%   6%  91%      Charlie Hayes       Jeff Moronko         Don Sparks
Kazuo Matsui      2B     2%   2%   3%   8%  85%    Alfredo Griffin          Jose Cruz        Denny Doyle
Travis Metcalf    3B     0%   1%   2%   5%  92%       Nate Manning      Seth Johnston         Tim Gillis
Jonathan Herrera  2B     0%   1%   2%   6%  92%      Chris Pittaro         Roger Holt        Scott Cerny
Chris Frey        CF     0%   0%   1%   7%  92%       Dave Francia   Jason Fitzgerald         Norm Brock
Tim Wheeler       CF     4%   2%   4%   7%  84%       Choo Freeman    Arturo Mcdowell   Johnny Hernandez
Hector Gomez      SS     4%   2%   5%   9%  80%         Nick Ortiz    Diory Hernandez      Larry Infante
Paul Lo Duca      1B     0%   0%   0%   1%  98%       Brian Jordan         Tom Wilson         Jason Wood
Omar Quintanilla  SS     0%   1%   2%   8%  89%        Pedro Lopez         Gary Green    Douglas Bernier

Player            PO     TOP   MID   BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Ubaldo Jimenez    SP     90%    5%    5%        Jim Maloney        Juan Guzman       Mark Gubicza
Huston Street     RP     70%   28%    2%         Eric Gagne     Tom Niedenfuer     Mariano Rivera
Rafael Betancourt RP     66%   31%    2%        John Smoltz     Trevor Hoffman     Rollie Fingers
Matt Belisle      RP     60%   36%    3%      Mark Eichhorn    Carlos Almanzar        Gene Garber
Jhoulys Chacin    SP     75%   23%    2%        Jim Maloney        Jose DeLeon         Jim Clancy
Matt Reynolds     RP     44%   48%    7%       Mike Stanton   Paul Assenmacher      Scott Stewart
Jorge de la Rosa  SP     70%   27%    2%      Mark Langston       Sam McDowell      Randy Johnson
Jason Hammel      SP     66%   32%    2%       John Burkett       Charles Nagy         Brad Penny
Octavio Dotel     RP     27%   55%   18%     Juan Berenguer        Greg Harris        Rudy Seanez
Matt Daley        RP     29%   47%   24%         Dave Burba      Steve Andrade     Joaquin Benoit
Manuel Corpas     RP     25%   56%   20%    Mark Williamson    Danny Patterson         Rick White
Joe Beimel        RP     32%   42%   26%        Juan Agosto        Bob Shirley     Lee Guetterman
Aaron Cook        SP     38%   47%   14%      Al Fitzmorris    Mel Stottlemyre           Bill Lee
Jeff Francis      SP     42%   50%    8%        Mark Redman        Chris Haney        John Halama
Manny Delcarmen   RP     18%   54%   29%    Todd Wellemeyer        Tyler Yates       Mike Hartley
Esmil Rogers      SP     30%   60%   10%        Storm Davis         Jose Silva      Dave Weathers
Franklin Morales  RP      9%   46%   44%        Stan Clarke    Armando Almanza      Scott Wiggins
Felipe Paulino    SP     23%   54%   23%        Darryl Kile      Ryan Dempster         Steve Mura
Jamey Wright      RP     14%   43%   43%           Don Aase        Greg Minton          Ben Weber
Rex Brothers      RP     12%   44%   44%      Scott Wiggins       Onan Masaoka        Stan Clarke
Samuel Deduno     SP     15%   53%   32%      Derrick Lewis         John Burke          Ted Power
Christian FriedricSP     15%   54%   30%      Chris Capuano        Juan Nieves   Brandon Claussen
Scott Rice        RP      9%   39%   52%         Jim Brewer         Jim Roland         Dan McGinn
Andrew Johnston   RP      5%   33%   62%         Stan Kyles       Andy Nezelek     Chuck Crumpton
Bruce Billings    SP      6%   52%   42%        Greg Aquino        Pete Fisher         Tom Newell
Juan Nicasio      SP      6%   56%   38%   Elizardo Ramirez        Clay Parker        Justin Reid
Jimmy Gobble      RP     16%   33%   50%      Chuck Hensley       Billy Brewer      Jack Taschner
Casey Weathers    RP     13%   24%   63%       Billy Sadler       Bart Miadich    Billy Sylvester
Kurt Birkins      SP      2%   24%   73%     Jeff Musselman      Trever Miller     Adam Pettyjohn
Edgmer Escalona   RP      2%   26%   72%           Ed Ponte       Jeff Cornell     Ryan Kohlmeier
Juan Rincon       RP      4%   29%   67%          David Lee        Colter Bean      Archie Corbin
Greg Reynolds     SP      3%   35%   62%          Bill King     Andrew Baldwin       Heath Totten
Greg Smith        SP      1%   26%   72%     Justin Hampson          Tom Drees      Robert Ramsay
Cory Riordan      SP      1%   25%   75%        Jason Jones     Shannon Withem      Rusty Meacham
Matt Wilhite      RP      2%   13%   85%       Mike Villano         Eric Moody      Barry Johnson
Alan Johnson      SP      0%   18%   81%          Bill King     Kyle Middleton      Doug Waechter
Damian Moss       RP      3%   18%   79%       Mike Venafro     Darold Knowles       Steve Barber
Josh Muecke       SP      0%   13%   87%     Mike Prochaska          Dan Smith      Matt Williams
Nick Bierbrodt    RP      1%    9%   90%        Mike Mohler       Kevin Hickey     Rusty Gerhardt

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Carlos Gonzalez         57%      21%      77%      19%      45%      44%      14%      24%
Troy Tulowitzki         38%      36%      64%       5%       7%      36%      15%       5%
Seth Smith              14%      18%      31%       0%       4%       1%       3%       0%
Chris Iannetta           3%      24%      22%       0%       1%       1%       5%       0%
Dexter Fowler           12%      29%       2%       3%      72%       0%       0%      10%
Ian Stewart              2%       6%      20%       0%       3%      17%       1%       2%
Jason Giambi             4%      35%       8%       0%       0%       0%       3%       0%
Jose Lopez              33%       1%      12%      38%       0%       9%       0%       0%
Ty Wigginton             5%       1%       5%       0%       0%       4%       1%       0%
Todd Helton             11%      33%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Ryan Spilborghs          9%      12%       4%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Matt Miller             16%       7%       1%       1%       3%       0%       0%       0%
Charles Blackmon        13%       2%       3%       2%      17%       0%       0%      17%
Brad Eldred              1%       0%      22%       0%       0%      14%       0%       0%
Bronson Sardinha         4%       3%       3%       0%       5%       0%       0%       0%
Chris Nelson             6%       2%       3%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Wilin Rosario            6%       1%      11%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Eric Young               3%       4%       0%       0%       7%       0%       0%      78%
Jordan Pacheco          12%       6%       1%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Cole Garner              2%       0%       2%       0%       9%       0%       0%       0%
Jay Payton               9%       1%       1%       0%       7%       0%       0%       0%
Michael McKenry          1%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Daniel Mayora            5%       1%       0%       1%       3%       0%       0%       2%
Kazuo Matsui             3%       1%       1%       0%       2%       0%       0%       2%
Travis Metcalf           1%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Jonathan Herrera         4%       2%       0%       0%       5%       0%       0%       1%
Chris Frey               3%       0%       0%       0%       6%       0%       0%       0%
Tim Wheeler              1%       1%       5%       0%      13%       5%       1%       2%
Hector Gomez             7%       1%       7%       0%       1%       0%       2%       0%
Paul Lo Duca            13%      10%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Omar Quintanilla         4%       3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Ryan Harvey              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Ubaldo Jimenez            86%       100%        74%         0%        99%
Huston Street             62%        95%        88%        14%        70%
Rafael Betancourt         58%        95%        97%        31%        54%
Matt Belisle              54%        94%        20%        43%        80%
Jhoulys Chacin            37%        90%        56%         0%        74%
Matt Reynolds             37%        87%        32%         4%        60%
Jorge de la Rosa          31%        89%        75%         0%        64%
Jason Hammel              23%        90%         7%        30%        72%
Octavio Dotel             21%        77%        94%         0%        43%
Matt Daley                22%        69%        53%         1%        45%
Manuel Corpas             19%        74%         5%        10%        71%
Joe Beimel                26%        68%         2%         5%        66%
Aaron Cook                11%        64%         0%         7%        68%
Jeff Francis              11%        66%         1%        13%        52%
Manny Delcarmen           13%        58%        28%         0%        51%
Esmil Rogers               5%        59%         1%         0%        70%
Franklin Morales           7%        49%        42%         0%        51%
Felipe Paulino             5%        44%        25%         0%        63%
Jamey Wright              11%        46%         4%         0%        66%
Rex Brothers               8%        39%        42%         0%        69%
Samuel Deduno              2%        32%         8%         0%        61%
Christian Friedric         3%        36%        15%         0%        43%
Scott Rice                 7%        34%         3%         0%        83%
Andrew Johnston            3%        25%         0%         0%        56%
Bruce Billings             0%        22%         2%         0%        33%
Juan Nicasio               0%        24%         0%         9%        20%
Jimmy Gobble              16%        37%        28%         2%        43%
Casey Weathers             8%        37%        51%         0%        51%
Kurt Birkins               1%        22%         1%         1%        39%
Edgmer Escalona            1%        18%        29%         0%         6%
Juan Rincon                2%        26%        22%         0%        53%
Greg Reynolds              0%        11%         0%        12%        31%
Greg Smith                 0%         8%         0%         0%         5%
Cory Riordan               0%         4%         0%         1%         6%
Matt Wilhite               1%        11%         0%         4%        15%
Alan Johnson               0%         3%         0%         0%        16%
Damian Moss                3%        17%         3%         0%        58%
Josh Muecke                0%         3%         0%         0%        14%
Nick Bierbrodt             1%         7%         4%         0%        26%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
Baltimore Orioles

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 09, 2010 at 06:48 PM | 26 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. My Grate Friend Peason's pants are rankled Posted: December 09, 2010 at 06:58 PM (#3706900)
153 ERA+ for Jimenez? Holy crap, that's good.
   2. danielj Posted: December 09, 2010 at 07:08 PM (#3706915)
Jeff Blauser? Didn't expect that comp for Tulo.
   3. RJ in TO Posted: December 09, 2010 at 07:21 PM (#3706930)
Jeff Blauser? Didn't expect that comp for Tulo.

At age 26 and age 27, Blauser put up OPS+ values of 122 and 124. He wasn't much of a fielder (for a SS), but he was a damn good hitter for the position.
   4. Spivey Posted: December 09, 2010 at 07:25 PM (#3706935)
Ubaldo Jimenez is awesome.
   5. North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan Posted: December 09, 2010 at 07:29 PM (#3706940)
Wow. That's much better pitching than I would have guessed. The Giants really need a starter in the wings in case of injury. Maybe Andrew Miller? Dan Runzler converted from pen to starter? These aren't inspiring.

Edit: Sorry, "World Series Champion San Francisco Giants." That's better.
   6. Spivey Posted: December 09, 2010 at 07:30 PM (#3706942)
I also wonder what Tulo's OPS+ projection would be if he didn't decide to play hurt at the start of 2008. When he came back he had roughly an 850 OPS+ and his OPS+ for the season would have been around 120-125 - instead it was 85 because he had 120 plate appearances of about as much suck as anyone in baseball can muster.

I figure his OPS+ would be at least several points higher.
   7. andrewberg Posted: December 09, 2010 at 07:42 PM (#3706963)
I'm surprised by Chacin's projection. Is that for real?
   8. kaline Posted: December 09, 2010 at 09:04 PM (#3707052)
Tulowitzki is projected to finish his career with more homers than Helton.
   9. BobbyS Posted: December 09, 2010 at 09:14 PM (#3707065)
The Brewers are missing from the Archive list.

Really hopping EYjr has a healthy and solid season, and throws up a .280/.360/.410 slash. He's one of those guys you just want to see succeed.
   10. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: December 09, 2010 at 09:35 PM (#3707089)
Just want to say that I enjoy these, and thanks for doing them.
   11. Silencio Posted: December 10, 2010 at 12:51 AM (#3707365)
Ubaldo projection seems awfully optimistic. Having a 2.3 k/bb ratio and almost having an ERA of 3 in Colorado does not seem likely to happen. Id set the line somewhere around an ERA of 3.55. Weird to see ZIPS go so much out on a limb. Even the Bill James projection has Ubaldo at only 3.63 and they seem to be optimistic on everyone, especially young players.

I thought maybe the pitching projections were stronger because of good defensive projections, but those only seem to be a tad above average as a team. Also thought it could be the comparable players for Ubaldo, and this could just me being fairly young and not much of a historian, but the names don't stand out to me either.
   12. cndb41a Posted: December 10, 2010 at 12:52 AM (#3707366)
What do you guys think of Seth Smith ?
   13. BobbyS Posted: December 10, 2010 at 01:14 AM (#3707406)
Ubaldo projection seems awfully optimistic. Having a 2.3 k/bb ratio and almost having an ERA of 3 in Colorado does not seem likely to happen.


Even though...he's had ERAs at Home of 3.34 and 3.19 the last 2 years, and similar, or better, walk rates at home than on the road?
   14. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 10, 2010 at 01:28 AM (#3707423)
What do you guys think of Seth Smith ?


Like him a lot, on a personal level. Seems like a nice guy.
   15. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 10, 2010 at 01:40 AM (#3707435)
Ubaldo projection seems awfully optimistic. Having a 2.3 k/bb ratio and almost having an ERA of 3 in Colorado does not seem likely to happen.


Ubaldo
2009-10:
440 IP, ERA: 3.17, K/BB: 2.33

Also Szym tends to project less offense in general than James- but figuring put what 2011's run environment is gonna be is basically guess work
   16. Ziggy Posted: December 10, 2010 at 06:08 AM (#3707653)
What are the chances that EY2 is the starting 2B man next year?

Also, a fantasy question: given the option to keep either Chacin or Trevor Cahill, which do you go with? Cahill was the better prospect, but his success last year was largely a product of a crazy good BABIP.
   17. puck Posted: December 10, 2010 at 06:13 AM (#3707660)
Wow. That's much better pitching than I would have guessed


Me, too. I would not have guessed that Esmil Rogers would project to a 100 ERA+. I think they are moving Billings to the pen.
   18. puck Posted: December 10, 2010 at 06:20 AM (#3707671)
Jordan Pacheco was a little old for the Cal league, but I wonder what his prospects as a hitter are. He has little power but has had consistently decent OBP's and very good contact rates. Are good contact rates in the minors worth a damn? Or are they a function of being a little older for his leagues?

He's a middle infield to catcher conversion, I don't know how his defense is thought of. He's definitely not going to be a star, but I wonder if he can end up a useful player.
   19. Walt Davis Posted: December 10, 2010 at 08:05 AM (#3707787)
Are good contact rates in the minors worth a damn?

They are very high on MWE's list ... or it might be more precise to say low contact rates are a major warning sign.
   20. flournoy Posted: December 10, 2010 at 01:47 PM (#3707829)
That hurts to see Helton have the lowest SLG of anyone in the projected starting lineup.
   21. Shoebo Posted: December 12, 2010 at 03:25 AM (#3708869)
Here are some more possible Carlos Gonzalez type comps, age 23-24, LHB, somewhat similar BB/K and OPS+

LINK

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/Lqut4

I am posting from China and when I click on the link myself I get an error...so thats the URL

Let me know if anyone else having trouble getting to it.

Below is a link to more or less the same concept, but covering ages 22-24 instead of just 23-24

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/PlM1J
   22. puck Posted: December 12, 2010 at 04:22 AM (#3708882)
Hmm, those links are resulting on 404's for me as well.
   23. puck Posted: December 12, 2010 at 04:26 AM (#3708884)
That hurts to see Helton have the lowest SLG of anyone in the projected starting lineup.


Not bad for a guy who still has over $30 million coming, huh?

According to Cots, instead of making $19.1M in 2001 with a $4.6M buyout for 2012, his new extension gives him a $4.6M signing bonus and $6M salary for 2011, a $4.9M salary in 2012, a $5M salary in 2013, and $13.1M in deferred money.

Maybe that signing bonus really was paid last year. Otherwise, is it really so important to save $8.5M in 2011 that they'd want to defer $13.1 and add another $5M on for another year? Or were they really that sure they wanted him for 2012 at a lower price?
   24. Shoebo Posted: December 12, 2010 at 02:47 PM (#3708940)
Dunno why the links aren't working. Straight cut and paste from bb-ref play index. Oh well....they were interesting lists.
   25. Ned Garvin: Male Prostitute Posted: December 14, 2010 at 12:48 AM (#3709852)
Jason Giambi's comps are ... dissimilar.
   26. Darren Posted: December 15, 2010 at 04:33 AM (#3711018)
I know it's late, but can someone explain to me why Tulo needed to be extended for SIX YEARS???? He was already locked up through 2014 on the cheap. They couldn't live with that kind of uncertainty? They didn't have the leverage to get him to sign for a 3 year extension for $60 mil?

I don't get it.

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