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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Thursday, December 09, 2010
2011 ZiPS Projections - Colorado Rockies
A lot of people may not have noticed, thanks to someone leaving the door open in the humidor or something, but the Rockies were a lot more than Jimenez, Gonzalez, and Tulowitzki in 2010 and despite finishing 12th in the NL in ERA, were 2nd in ERA+ behind the San Francisco Giants.
There’s a lot of organizational pitching depth, but the offense does need to stay healthy as the upper minors don’t have a lot of spares - a lot rides on Gonzalez and Tulo. CarGo may have been a bit overrated during his Triple Crown run, but he’s still and excellent player, though clearly below the Pujols/Votto elite going forward. ZiPS actually has Tulowitzki earning his contract extension, so the Rockies shouldn’t be too worried about it being a repeat of the Todd Helton marathon (for one, Tulowitzki is younger than Helton was).
They can’t match the Giants starters, but the Rockies are more prepared for injuries to pitchers than San Francisco is and it should be an exciting divisional race, especially if the Dodgers can come up with a better leftfielder than combining Jay Gibbons and Tony Gwynn Jr. into one lousy player.
Next up: Braves
Oracle on Twitter
Batting Projections
Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+
Carlos Gonzalez L LF 25 .306 .354 .533 156 589 101 180 35 9 27 103 44 127 23 7 121
Troy Tulowitzki R SS 26 .292 .363 .520 144 538 92 157 32 5 27 95 60 99 13 6 121
Seth Smith L LF 28 .272 .348 .482 136 371 57 101 22 4 16 59 42 72 5 1 108
Chris Iannetta R C 28 .242 .355 .457 91 289 39 70 16 2 14 52 43 78 0 0 104
Dexter Fowler B CF 25 .271 .361 .418 150 521 85 141 30 13 7 49 70 127 21 9 97
Ian Stewart L 3B 26 .248 .332 .462 145 459 70 114 21 4 23 76 53 138 8 3 99
Jason Giambi L 1B 40 .234 .363 .421 86 209 26 49 12 0 9 42 38 54 1 0 99
Jose Lopez R 2B 27 .291 .318 .453 156 616 78 179 41 1 19 95 23 58 4 3 93
Ty Wigginton R 1B 33 .271 .331 .450 130 471 61 129 27 1 18 66 36 77 1 3 96
Todd Helton L 1B 37 .266 .364 .396 106 376 45 100 20 1 9 41 59 69 0 0 93
Ryan Spilborghs R RF 31 .266 .342 .414 125 331 44 88 18 2 9 43 37 73 6 5 91
Matt Miller R RF 28 .280 .340 .388 137 536 70 150 28 3 8 78 47 93 3 1 85
Charles Blackmon L CF 24 .273 .324 .412 124 512 66 140 29 6 10 61 33 82 22 11 86
Brad Eldred R 1B 30 .237 .291 .469 113 409 51 97 24 1 23 69 25 123 5 2 89
Bronson Sardinha L RF 28 .253 .319 .417 105 379 44 96 22 5 10 50 37 81 7 3 85
Chris Nelson R SS 25 .259 .315 .399 91 328 46 85 16 3 8 46 25 68 7 3 80
Wilin Rosario R C 22 .254 .295 .426 86 319 33 81 15 2 12 48 18 78 2 1 81
Eric Young B 2B 26 .256 .331 .346 117 433 69 111 17 5 4 29 42 88 38 12 72
Jordan Pacheco R C 25 .270 .330 .373 111 440 49 119 23 2 6 64 35 49 5 5 78
Cole Garner R LF 26 .251 .303 .411 106 394 50 99 23 5 10 42 23 101 8 6 79
Jay Payton R LF 38 .263 .297 .385 122 395 44 104 23 5 5 51 18 48 8 2 72
Michael McKenry R C 26 .238 .309 .391 113 407 42 97 24 1 12 53 38 103 2 4 76
Daniel Mayora R 3B 25 .260 .309 .373 119 453 46 118 27 3 6 46 28 98 11 9 72
Kazuo Matsui B 2B 35 .247 .301 .350 107 389 53 96 17 4 5 34 29 63 14 3 65
Travis Metcalf R 3B 28 .238 .290 .382 120 421 48 100 25 3 10 54 31 95 2 2 69
Jonathan Herrera B 2B 26 .261 .323 .329 132 444 56 116 13 4 3 38 40 65 11 6 66
Chris Frey L CF 27 .253 .297 .348 116 356 37 90 18 5 2 28 21 63 9 3 63
Tim Wheeler L CF 23 .228 .297 .363 121 496 69 113 19 6 12 58 43 112 14 8 67
Hector Gomez R SS 23 .252 .276 .387 66 266 28 67 14 2 6 28 8 57 5 5 66
Paul Lo Duca R 1B 39 .250 .311 .324 38 108 10 27 5 0 1 14 8 12 0 0 62
Omar Quintanilla L SS 29 .237 .300 .324 65 173 20 41 10 1 1 15 15 39 1 1 59
Ryan Harvey L RF 26 .210 .255 .378 90 315 28 66 15 1 12 42 18 117 3 2 58
Defensive Projections
Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF
Carlos Gonzalez VG/76 AV/115 AV/90
Troy Tulowitzki VG/65
Seth Smith AV/96 PO/128 AV/114
Chris Iannetta FR
Dexter Fowler AV/134
Ian Stewart PO/126 AV/126 AV/114
Jason Giambi PO/146
Jose Lopez AV/121 VG/89
Ty Wigginton AV/174 PO/134 PO/96
Todd Helton AV/76
Ryan Spilborghs FR/89 FR/143 FR/195
Matt Miller AV/92 PO/110 FR/78
Charles Blackmon VG/127 VG/215
Brad Eldred FR/149 PO/119 FR/126
Bronson Sardinha AV/98 PO/133 FR/142
Chris Nelson AV/128 AV/125 FR/208
Wilin Rosario VG
Eric Young VG/158 AV/154 AV/182
Jordan Pacheco AV
Cole Garner AV/172 FR/180 AV/103
Jay Payton AV/95 PO/75 AV/107
Michael McKenry AV
Daniel Mayora AV/192 AV/121 AV/205
Kazuo Matsui FR/96 PO/113
Travis Metcalf AV/106 FR/122 FR/100
Jonathan Herrera AV/84 AV/109 AV/81
Chris Frey AV/116 AV/90 AV/118
Tim Wheeler AV/181 AV/111
Hector Gomez VG/165
Paul Lo Duca FR
Omar Quintanilla AV/115 AV/118 FR/106
Ryan Harvey AV/136 AV/136
Pitching Projections - Starters
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Ubaldo Jimenez R 27 3.06 18 7 34 34 220.7 179 75 13 93 214 153
Jhoulys Chacin R 23 3.93 13 8 33 25 146.7 131 64 14 76 134 119
Jorge de la Rosa L 30 3.98 12 7 26 24 142.3 129 63 15 64 139 117
Jason Hammel R 28 4.14 11 8 33 31 187.0 198 86 19 47 142 113
Aaron Cook R 32 4.48 10 8 26 26 152.7 167 76 15 51 77 104
Jeff Francis L 30 4.50 6 4 19 19 110.0 119 55 13 32 71 104
Esmil Rogers R 25 4.69 8 7 32 23 142.0 155 74 15 55 99 100
Felipe Paulino R 27 4.84 5 5 19 14 87.3 91 47 10 41 72 97
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96
Samuel Deduno R 27 5.01 6 6 20 18 91.7 93 51 10 62 68 93
Christian FriedricL 23 5.02 5 5 21 21 98.7 105 55 13 51 78 93
Bruce Billings R 25 5.24 8 10 30 20 113.3 123 66 16 59 81 89
Juan Nicasio R 24 5.24 9 10 25 25 149.3 176 87 22 44 92 89
Kurt Birkins L 30 5.45 4 5 29 12 71.0 83 43 10 31 41 86
Greg Reynolds R 25 5.63 4 6 16 16 80.0 100 50 11 25 32 83
Greg Smith L 27 5.74 5 7 22 22 111.3 125 71 20 55 67 81
Cory Riordan R 25 5.83 7 10 28 26 160.7 200 104 28 56 95 80
Alan Johnson R 27 5.97 7 11 28 26 149.3 192 99 23 56 71 78
Josh Muecke L 29 6.13 6 11 27 23 126.3 155 86 20 62 66 76
Pitching Statistics - Relievers
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Huston Street R 27 3.36 6 3 59 1 59.0 50 22 6 18 62 139
Rafael Betancourt R 36 3.53 4 2 65 0 58.7 51 23 7 16 67 133
Matt Belisle R 31 3.71 6 3 65 0 77.7 77 32 7 18 63 126
Matt Reynolds L 26 3.95 5 3 60 0 66.0 63 29 7 24 56 118
Octavio Dotel R 37 4.22 4 3 62 0 59.7 53 28 8 30 66 111
Matt Daley R 29 4.22 2 1 52 0 49.0 47 23 6 21 45 111
Manuel Corpas R 31 4.25 4 3 55 0 59.3 62 28 6 19 43 110
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Joe Beimel L 34 4.44 3 2 68 0 46.7 50 23 5 18 27 105
Manny Delcarmen R 29 4.60 3 3 65 0 60.7 58 31 8 32 51 102
Franklin Morales L 25 4.84 3 3 63 0 61.3 56 33 8 44 54 97
Jamey Wright R 36 4.91 4 4 57 0 69.7 74 38 7 34 46 95
Rex Brothers L 23 4.93 2 2 44 0 42.0 39 23 5 34 36 95
Scott Rice L 29 5.08 2 2 48 0 51.3 55 29 4 34 30 92
Andrew Johnston R 27 5.20 3 3 58 0 55.3 65 32 6 25 27 90
Jimmy Gobble L 29 5.31 1 1 20 0 20.3 21 12 3 11 17 88
Casey Weathers R 26 5.34 1 1 32 0 28.7 27 17 4 25 27 88
Edgmer Escalona R 24 5.50 3 4 62 0 70.3 72 43 15 34 60 85
Juan Rincon R 32 5.54 3 4 49 0 52.0 55 32 6 35 42 84
Matt Wilhite R 29 5.86 2 2 43 0 58.3 71 38 10 22 34 80
Damian Moss L 34 6.00 3 5 37 5 57.0 67 38 6 43 35 78
Nick Bierbrodt L 33 6.62 1 1 34 0 35.3 42 26 6 25 22 71
Extrapolated Career Statistics
Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+
Troy Tulowitzki .280 .347 .479 2294 8674 1364 2426 471 72 371 1375 878 1418 161 107
Carlos Gonzalez .291 .340 .505 2251 8467 1370 2463 480 108 372 1375 626 1707 238 112
Jason Giambi .279 .402 .518 2187 7165 1220 1999 406 9 429 1437 1360 1526 22 140
Todd Helton .317 .416 .538 2149 7689 1359 2441 568 37 351 1322 1309 1109 36 132
Jose Lopez .276 .305 .425 1951 7633 901 2104 459 19 214 1071 293 768 46 88
Ian Stewart .245 .329 .450 1623 5052 737 1238 240 37 241 805 585 1421 70 96
Chris Iannetta .235 .346 .432 1150 3678 464 864 193 24 161 616 530 867 1 96
Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+
Ubaldo Jimenez 191 108 0 3.71 437 438 2779 2328 1146 179 1238 2613 126
Aaron Cook 130 109 0 4.52 383 352 2173 2473 1092 207 691 971 104
Jorge de la Rosa 129 106 0 4.63 369 296 1758 1718 904 209 845 1604 100
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3
Carlos Gonzalez LF 38% 34% 14% 9% 5% Dwight Smith Lloyd Moseby Leon Durham
Troy Tulowitzki SS 74% 16% 8% 2% 0% Frankie Crosetti Jeff Blauser Toby Harrah
Seth Smith LF 11% 26% 22% 22% 19% Mike Maksudian Beau Allred Randy Bush
Chris Iannetta C 29% 34% 18% 13% 6% Brian Deak Sal Fasano Tom Wilson
Dexter Fowler CF 13% 17% 29% 26% 15% Milt Cuyler Junior Felix Devon White
Ian Stewart 3B 7% 20% 25% 25% 23% Willie Greene Josh Fields Keith Ginter
Jason Giambi 1B 4% 10% 12% 26% 48% Harmon Killebrew Jeff Manto Robin Ventura
Jose Lopez 2B 11% 13% 18% 26% 32% Ken Reitz Bill Mazeroski Eric McNair
Ty Wigginton 1B 1% 6% 9% 28% 55% Jose Guillen Dan Rohrmeier Glenn Wilson
Todd Helton 1B 1% 5% 9% 26% 59% Wally Joyner J.T. Snow Scott Hatteberg
Ryan Spilborghs RF 1% 4% 7% 17% 70% Shane Spencer Russ Morman Jason Michaels
Matt Miller RF 0% 2% 4% 13% 81% Kevin Romine Jorge Padilla Brian Horwitz
Charles Blackmon CF 4% 7% 17% 29% 44% Jim Wawruck Jim Steels Pat Watkins
Brad Eldred 1B 0% 3% 7% 25% 65% John Nelson Chris Hatcher John Cotton
Bronson Sardinha RF 1% 3% 5% 13% 78% Ted Wood Nathan Panther Wynter Phoenix
Chris Nelson SS 4% 8% 21% 31% 36% Jose Castillo Travis Dawkins Nelson Johnson
Wilin Rosario C 4% 15% 18% 26% 37% Ryan Luzinski Craig Faulkner Bob Geren
Eric Young 2B 2% 5% 10% 23% 61% John Holt Harry Chappas Edwin Rodriguez
Jordan Pacheco C 2% 8% 12% 30% 49% Tom Wieghaus Rafael Pujols Jamie Burke
Cole Garner LF 0% 1% 1% 5% 93% Matt Cimo Mike Stellern Darrell Nicholas
Jay Payton LF 1% 1% 1% 5% 93% Dan Gladden Gerald Williams P.J. Forbes
Michael McKenry C 2% 4% 8% 25% 61% Marc Sullivan Jeff Ontiveros Jonathan Still
Daniel Mayora 3B 0% 1% 2% 6% 91% Charlie Hayes Jeff Moronko Don Sparks
Kazuo Matsui 2B 2% 2% 3% 8% 85% Alfredo Griffin Jose Cruz Denny Doyle
Travis Metcalf 3B 0% 1% 2% 5% 92% Nate Manning Seth Johnston Tim Gillis
Jonathan Herrera 2B 0% 1% 2% 6% 92% Chris Pittaro Roger Holt Scott Cerny
Chris Frey CF 0% 0% 1% 7% 92% Dave Francia Jason Fitzgerald Norm Brock
Tim Wheeler CF 4% 2% 4% 7% 84% Choo Freeman Arturo Mcdowell Johnny Hernandez
Hector Gomez SS 4% 2% 5% 9% 80% Nick Ortiz Diory Hernandez Larry Infante
Paul Lo Duca 1B 0% 0% 0% 1% 98% Brian Jordan Tom Wilson Jason Wood
Omar Quintanilla SS 0% 1% 2% 8% 89% Pedro Lopez Gary Green Douglas Bernier
Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3
Ubaldo Jimenez SP 90% 5% 5% Jim Maloney Juan Guzman Mark Gubicza
Huston Street RP 70% 28% 2% Eric Gagne Tom Niedenfuer Mariano Rivera
Rafael Betancourt RP 66% 31% 2% John Smoltz Trevor Hoffman Rollie Fingers
Matt Belisle RP 60% 36% 3% Mark Eichhorn Carlos Almanzar Gene Garber
Jhoulys Chacin SP 75% 23% 2% Jim Maloney Jose DeLeon Jim Clancy
Matt Reynolds RP 44% 48% 7% Mike Stanton Paul Assenmacher Scott Stewart
Jorge de la Rosa SP 70% 27% 2% Mark Langston Sam McDowell Randy Johnson
Jason Hammel SP 66% 32% 2% John Burkett Charles Nagy Brad Penny
Octavio Dotel RP 27% 55% 18% Juan Berenguer Greg Harris Rudy Seanez
Matt Daley RP 29% 47% 24% Dave Burba Steve Andrade Joaquin Benoit
Manuel Corpas RP 25% 56% 20% Mark Williamson Danny Patterson Rick White
Joe Beimel RP 32% 42% 26% Juan Agosto Bob Shirley Lee Guetterman
Aaron Cook SP 38% 47% 14% Al Fitzmorris Mel Stottlemyre Bill Lee
Jeff Francis SP 42% 50% 8% Mark Redman Chris Haney John Halama
Manny Delcarmen RP 18% 54% 29% Todd Wellemeyer Tyler Yates Mike Hartley
Esmil Rogers SP 30% 60% 10% Storm Davis Jose Silva Dave Weathers
Franklin Morales RP 9% 46% 44% Stan Clarke Armando Almanza Scott Wiggins
Felipe Paulino SP 23% 54% 23% Darryl Kile Ryan Dempster Steve Mura
Jamey Wright RP 14% 43% 43% Don Aase Greg Minton Ben Weber
Rex Brothers RP 12% 44% 44% Scott Wiggins Onan Masaoka Stan Clarke
Samuel Deduno SP 15% 53% 32% Derrick Lewis John Burke Ted Power
Christian FriedricSP 15% 54% 30% Chris Capuano Juan Nieves Brandon Claussen
Scott Rice RP 9% 39% 52% Jim Brewer Jim Roland Dan McGinn
Andrew Johnston RP 5% 33% 62% Stan Kyles Andy Nezelek Chuck Crumpton
Bruce Billings SP 6% 52% 42% Greg Aquino Pete Fisher Tom Newell
Juan Nicasio SP 6% 56% 38% Elizardo Ramirez Clay Parker Justin Reid
Jimmy Gobble RP 16% 33% 50% Chuck Hensley Billy Brewer Jack Taschner
Casey Weathers RP 13% 24% 63% Billy Sadler Bart Miadich Billy Sylvester
Kurt Birkins SP 2% 24% 73% Jeff Musselman Trever Miller Adam Pettyjohn
Edgmer Escalona RP 2% 26% 72% Ed Ponte Jeff Cornell Ryan Kohlmeier
Juan Rincon RP 4% 29% 67% David Lee Colter Bean Archie Corbin
Greg Reynolds SP 3% 35% 62% Bill King Andrew Baldwin Heath Totten
Greg Smith SP 1% 26% 72% Justin Hampson Tom Drees Robert Ramsay
Cory Riordan SP 1% 25% 75% Jason Jones Shannon Withem Rusty Meacham
Matt Wilhite RP 2% 13% 85% Mike Villano Eric Moody Barry Johnson
Alan Johnson SP 0% 18% 81% Bill King Kyle Middleton Doug Waechter
Damian Moss RP 3% 18% 79% Mike Venafro Darold Knowles Steve Barber
Josh Muecke SP 0% 13% 87% Mike Prochaska Dan Smith Matt Williams
Nick Bierbrodt RP 1% 9% 90% Mike Mohler Kevin Hickey Rusty Gerhardt
Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB
Carlos Gonzalez 57% 21% 77% 19% 45% 44% 14% 24%
Troy Tulowitzki 38% 36% 64% 5% 7% 36% 15% 5%
Seth Smith 14% 18% 31% 0% 4% 1% 3% 0%
Chris Iannetta 3% 24% 22% 0% 1% 1% 5% 0%
Dexter Fowler 12% 29% 2% 3% 72% 0% 0% 10%
Ian Stewart 2% 6% 20% 0% 3% 17% 1% 2%
Jason Giambi 4% 35% 8% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0%
Jose Lopez 33% 1% 12% 38% 0% 9% 0% 0%
Ty Wigginton 5% 1% 5% 0% 0% 4% 1% 0%
Todd Helton 11% 33% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Ryan Spilborghs 9% 12% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Matt Miller 16% 7% 1% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Charles Blackmon 13% 2% 3% 2% 17% 0% 0% 17%
Brad Eldred 1% 0% 22% 0% 0% 14% 0% 0%
Bronson Sardinha 4% 3% 3% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Chris Nelson 6% 2% 3% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1%
Wilin Rosario 6% 1% 11% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Eric Young 3% 4% 0% 0% 7% 0% 0% 78%
Jordan Pacheco 12% 6% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Cole Garner 2% 0% 2% 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Jay Payton 9% 1% 1% 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Michael McKenry 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Daniel Mayora 5% 1% 0% 1% 3% 0% 0% 2%
Kazuo Matsui 3% 1% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 2%
Travis Metcalf 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Jonathan Herrera 4% 2% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 1%
Chris Frey 3% 0% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Tim Wheeler 1% 1% 5% 0% 13% 5% 1% 2%
Hector Gomez 7% 1% 7% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0%
Paul Lo Duca 13% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Omar Quintanilla 4% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Ryan Harvey 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1
Ubaldo Jimenez 86% 100% 74% 0% 99%
Huston Street 62% 95% 88% 14% 70%
Rafael Betancourt 58% 95% 97% 31% 54%
Matt Belisle 54% 94% 20% 43% 80%
Jhoulys Chacin 37% 90% 56% 0% 74%
Matt Reynolds 37% 87% 32% 4% 60%
Jorge de la Rosa 31% 89% 75% 0% 64%
Jason Hammel 23% 90% 7% 30% 72%
Octavio Dotel 21% 77% 94% 0% 43%
Matt Daley 22% 69% 53% 1% 45%
Manuel Corpas 19% 74% 5% 10% 71%
Joe Beimel 26% 68% 2% 5% 66%
Aaron Cook 11% 64% 0% 7% 68%
Jeff Francis 11% 66% 1% 13% 52%
Manny Delcarmen 13% 58% 28% 0% 51%
Esmil Rogers 5% 59% 1% 0% 70%
Franklin Morales 7% 49% 42% 0% 51%
Felipe Paulino 5% 44% 25% 0% 63%
Jamey Wright 11% 46% 4% 0% 66%
Rex Brothers 8% 39% 42% 0% 69%
Samuel Deduno 2% 32% 8% 0% 61%
Christian Friedric 3% 36% 15% 0% 43%
Scott Rice 7% 34% 3% 0% 83%
Andrew Johnston 3% 25% 0% 0% 56%
Bruce Billings 0% 22% 2% 0% 33%
Juan Nicasio 0% 24% 0% 9% 20%
Jimmy Gobble 16% 37% 28% 2% 43%
Casey Weathers 8% 37% 51% 0% 51%
Kurt Birkins 1% 22% 1% 1% 39%
Edgmer Escalona 1% 18% 29% 0% 6%
Juan Rincon 2% 26% 22% 0% 53%
Greg Reynolds 0% 11% 0% 12% 31%
Greg Smith 0% 8% 0% 0% 5%
Cory Riordan 0% 4% 0% 1% 6%
Matt Wilhite 1% 11% 0% 4% 15%
Alan Johnson 0% 3% 0% 0% 16%
Damian Moss 3% 17% 3% 0% 58%
Josh Muecke 0% 3% 0% 0% 14%
Nick Bierbrodt 1% 7% 4% 0% 26%
All figures in % based on projection playing time
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
Baltimore Orioles
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 09, 2010 at 06:48 PM | 26 comment(s)
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1. My Grate Friend, Peason's pants are rankled Posted: December 09, 2010 at 06:58 PM (#3706900)At age 26 and age 27, Blauser put up OPS+ values of 122 and 124. He wasn't much of a fielder (for a SS), but he was a damn good hitter for the position.
Edit: Sorry, "World Series Champion San Francisco Giants." That's better.
I figure his OPS+ would be at least several points higher.
Really hopping EYjr has a healthy and solid season, and throws up a .280/.360/.410 slash. He's one of those guys you just want to see succeed.
I thought maybe the pitching projections were stronger because of good defensive projections, but those only seem to be a tad above average as a team. Also thought it could be the comparable players for Ubaldo, and this could just me being fairly young and not much of a historian, but the names don't stand out to me either.
Even though...he's had ERAs at Home of 3.34 and 3.19 the last 2 years, and similar, or better, walk rates at home than on the road?
Like him a lot, on a personal level. Seems like a nice guy.
Ubaldo
2009-10:
440 IP, ERA: 3.17, K/BB: 2.33
Also Szym tends to project less offense in general than James- but figuring put what 2011's run environment is gonna be is basically guess work
Also, a fantasy question: given the option to keep either Chacin or Trevor Cahill, which do you go with? Cahill was the better prospect, but his success last year was largely a product of a crazy good BABIP.
Me, too. I would not have guessed that Esmil Rogers would project to a 100 ERA+. I think they are moving Billings to the pen.
He's a middle infield to catcher conversion, I don't know how his defense is thought of. He's definitely not going to be a star, but I wonder if he can end up a useful player.
They are very high on MWE's list ... or it might be more precise to say low contact rates are a major warning sign.
LINK
http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/Lqut4
I am posting from China and when I click on the link myself I get an error...so thats the URL
Let me know if anyone else having trouble getting to it.
Below is a link to more or less the same concept, but covering ages 22-24 instead of just 23-24
http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/PlM1J
Not bad for a guy who still has over $30 million coming, huh?
According to Cots, instead of making $19.1M in 2001 with a $4.6M buyout for 2012, his new extension gives him a $4.6M signing bonus and $6M salary for 2011, a $4.9M salary in 2012, a $5M salary in 2013, and $13.1M in deferred money.
Maybe that signing bonus really was paid last year. Otherwise, is it really so important to save $8.5M in 2011 that they'd want to defer $13.1 and add another $5M on for another year? Or were they really that sure they wanted him for 2012 at a lower price?
I don't get it.
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