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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, February 03, 2011

2011 ZiPS Projections - Detroit Tigers

If the season started today, I’d pick the Tigers to edge out the Twins and a little behind the White Sox.  Like Chicago, Detroit has a fairly aggressive GM that does have the ability to spend money when the need arises.

However, the team does have substantial downside that can’t be ignored.  The offense is good, but it’s also not particularly young and there’s not a lot of upper-level depth in the organization (there’s much better depth at the lower levels, but it’ll have to be used in trades rather than filling holes in the majors this year).  The pitching staff has 4 really good pitchers, but again, not a lot of depth behind it.  I still think that the Tigers are likely to win somewhere between 84 and 90 games, but 70 wins would surprise me a lot less than 95 wins - you combine age and lack of depth for emergencies and there’s at least the potential for a wheels-coming-off season.  The organization does need to keep in mind that they’re pretty much where the Mets were in 2008 as a team with good frontline talent, but probably not good enough to simply paper over the holes if they disappoint.  It worked out poorly for the Mets in 2009 and that’s certainly not the “average” result, but Dombrowski does need to be wary.

Next up:  Mets

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Miguel Cabrera    R    1B   28   .304 .388 .564 154 573  98 174  36   1  37 115  79 111   4   2  150
Magglio Ordonez   R    RF   37   .290 .355 .441 108 410  55 119  21   1  13  62  42  56   2   1  111
Victor Martinez   B    DH   32   .286 .346 .454 124 476  59 136  27   1  17  74  45  58   1   0  111
Ryan Raburn       R    LF   30   .270 .333 .475 123 356  54  96  21   2  16  55  30  84   5   4  112
Carlos Guillen    B    2B   35   .261 .336 .416  89 322  41  84  17   3   9  43  36  56   4   3   99
Austin Jackson    R    CF   24   .274 .329 .384 156 625  90 171  32   8   7  53  49 163  25   6   89
Jhonny Peralta    R    SS   29   .260 .317 .412 151 580  71 151  33   2  17  84  49 115   2   1   92
Scott Sizemore    R    2B   26   .254 .321 .384 122 469  63 119  25   3  10  44  42 109   9   4   87
Timo Perez        L    LF   36   .264 .308 .372 100 371  39  98  18   2   6  39  23  43   9   3   80
Scott Thorman     L    1B   29   .244 .290 .412 115 427  50 104  22   1  16  57  25  82   5   3   84
Andy Dirks        L    LF   25   .261 .307 .365 143 567  66 148  25   2  10  61  35 101  20   6   78
Brandon Inge      R    3B   34   .231 .312 .390 135 467  50 108  20   3  16  66  48 134   4   4   86
Brennan Boesch    R    RF   26   .247 .295 .390 147 559  57 138  25   5  15  77  35 138   8   3   81
Casper Wells      R    CF   26   .229 .297 .413 123 450  56 103  22   5  17  50  35 136   9   8   87
Will Rhymes       L    2B   28   .266 .315 .350 138 531  69 141  22   7   3  45  37  66  16   7   77
Alex Avila        L    C    24   .239 .320 .365 114 356  38  85  18   0   9  41  42  91   2   2   82
Ryan Strieby      R    LF   25   .234 .302 .384 106 406  41  95  18   2  13  55  37 118   1   2   81
Don Kelly         L    LF   31   .252 .297 .362 120 329  41  83  11   2   7  32  20  50   7   2   75
Brandon Douglas   R    2B   25   .267 .308 .336  89 363  46  97  16   3   1  24  19  47   9   2   72
Clete Thomas      L    CF   27   .228 .305 .353  93 320  43  73  15   2   7  36  33  97  16   5   75
Ramon Santiago    B    SS   31   .257 .326 .345  99 284  34  73   9   2   4  26  23  52   2   3   79
Ben Guez          R    RF   24   .230 .291 .372 125 443  53 102  24   3  11  50  29 124  12  10   75
Maxim St. Pierre  R    C    31   .237 .285 .360  70 236  23  56   9   1   6  27  13  36   1   1   70
Danny Worth       R    SS   25   .239 .285 .319 111 398  39  95  16   2   4  30  24  89  10   5   61
Mike Rabelo       B    C    31   .221 .264 .336  34 113   9  25   5   1   2  15   5  30   0   0   59
Audy Ciriaco      R    3B   24   .230 .253 .341 116 443  43 102  14   4   9  45  13  99  10   4   56
Clay Timpner      L    RF   28   .238 .285 .312 124 433  46 103  16   2   4  43  28  76   6   5   59
Omir Santos       R    C    30   .233 .274 .324  65 210  19  49  10   0   3  25  10  38   0   1   59
Argenis Diaz      R    SS   24   .235 .279 .281 131 456  45 107  15   3   0  37  27 113   5   5   51
Cale Iorg         R    SS   25   .203 .240 .297 137 543  52 110  21   3   8  38  22 199  12   8   42

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Miguel Cabrera               FR/120          PO/123
Magglio Ordonez                                                              AV/120
Victor Martinez          PO  AV/125
Ryan Raburn                  AV/112  PO/140  PO/138          AV/189  PO/112  FR/133
Carlos Guillen               FR/125  FR/110  FR/110          FR/135
Austin Jackson                                               VG/108  VG/117  VG/108
Jhonny Peralta                                FR/78   FR/78
Scott Sizemore                       AV/143  AV/105  FR/112
Timo Perez                                                   FR/113          FR/113
Scott Thorman                AV/111          PO/103          FR/136
Andy Dirks                                                    VG/91  AV/142   AV/91
Brandon Inge             AV                   AV/73
Brennan Boesch                                               AV/151          FR/168
Casper Wells                                                 AV/109  FR/148  AV/109
Will Rhymes                          AV/103  FR/109  PO/112          FR/114
Alex Avila               AV
Ryan Strieby                 VG/108                          AV/126
Don Kelly                    AV/124  FR/107  FR/107  PO/130   AV/85   AV/83   AV/91
Brandon Douglas                       AV/89          PO/146
Clete Thomas                                                 AV/124  AV/176  AV/109
Ramon Santiago                        AV/92  AV/110   AV/86
Ben Guez                                                     AV/112  AV/113  AV/109
Maxim St. Pierre         AV
Danny Worth                          VG/113   VG/99  FR/105
Mike Rabelo              AV
Audy Ciriaco                                 VG/114  AV/165
Clay Timpner                 AV/120                          AV/101  AV/126  AV/122
Omir Santos              FR
Argenis Diaz                         VG/102          VG/118
Cale Iorg                                            VG/110

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Justin Verlander  R      28     3.35    18    9   32   32   215.0  190   80   16   67  220   128
Max Scherzer      R      26     3.44    12    6   31   28   170.0  149   65   16   63  183   125
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Rick Porcello     R      22     4.66    11   12   30   30   172.0  188   89   20   52   96    92
Brad Penny        R      31     4.70     5    7   17   16    95.7  105   50   11   29   57    91  
Phil Coke         L      28     4.72    10   11   29   29   129.7  140   68   13   47   93    91
Adam Wilk         L      23     4.99     7    9   27   27   153.3  180   85   21   39   72    86
Jeremy Bonderman  R      28     5.30     5    7   23   17   108.7  122   64   16   42   71    81
Billy Buckner     R      27     5.48     7   10   25   21   120.0  143   73   15   51   77    78
Jacob Turner      R      20     5.49     4    7   24   23   105.0  124   64   15   36   61    78
Alfredo Figaro    R      26     5.49     6   10   25   20   114.7  140   70   13   50   67    78
Brayan Villarreal R      24     5.59     5    8   25   21   106.3  117   66   17   53   79    77
Andrew Oliver     L      23     5.79     8   14   29   29   144.7  162   93   23   79  103    74
Charles Furbush   L      25     6.02     4    8   21   20   104.7  126   70   20   42   72    71
Enrique Gonzalez  R      28     6.10     4    9   31   15   100.3  125   68   17   47   57    70
Ryan Ketchner     L      29     6.48     3    7   22   17    93.0  122   67   17   36   44    66
Duane Below       L      25     6.60     4   10   21   21    90.0  113   66   16   50   55    65
Ruddy Lugo        R      31     6.81     4    9   17   16    79.3  104   60   15   39   36    63

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Joaquin Benoit    R      32     3.10     4    2   60    0    61.0   48   21    7   23   68   139
Jose Valverde     R      33     3.47     4    2   57    0    57.0   48   22    6   25   61   124
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Ryan Perry        R      24     4.13     3    3   63    0    69.7   67   32    7   30   60   104
Joel Zumaya       R      26     4.17     2    2   32    0    36.7   35   17    4   19   34   103
Robbie Weinhardt  R      25     4.39     3    2   43    0    55.3   57   27    4   24   40    98
Bobby Seay        L      33     4.41     2    2   39    0    32.7   33   16    3   15   28    97
Daniel Schlereth  L      25     4.47     2    2   50    0    54.3   51   27    5   38   51    96
John Bale         L      37     4.62     1    1   34    4    37.0   39   19    4   15   28    93
Brad Thomas       L      23     4.73     4    4   51    2    72.3   81   38    6   31   36    91
Mariano Gomez     L      28     4.76     4    4   43    0    56.7   60   30    5   29   30    90
Al Alburquerque   R      24     4.85     3    3   35    0    42.7   44   23    4   26   35    89
Brendan Wise      R      25     4.93     3    4   43    0    65.7   78   36    5   28   25    87
Zach Simons       R      26     5.12     3    4   45    0    63.3   64   36    7   40   48    84
Fu-Te Ni          L      28     5.24     1    1   44    0    46.3   49   27    6   24   37    82
Lester Oliveros   R      23     5.36     2    3   37    0    42.0   44   25    5   27   36    80
Jose Ortega       R      22     5.90     2    4   37    1    50.3   56   33    6   37   32    73

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Miguel Cabrera       .296  .370  .517  2744 10384  1590  3075   635    24   536  1880  1207  1877    57   133
Magglio Ordonez      .305  .365  .494  2093  7943  1195  2424   476    26   324  1379   739   969    96   122
Jhonny Peralta       .259  .318  .406  2034  7712   958  1996   420    29   219  1047   668  1544    18    92
Austin Jackson       .268  .327  .378  1915  7657  1093  2055   396    84    91   634   626  1900   227    87
Victor Martinez      .287  .348  .442  1840  6996   862  2006   395     7   226  1082   664   809     9   109
Carlos Guillen       .279  .348  .434  1606  5793   865  1615   326    59   151   795   619   980    86   106
Brandon Inge         .235  .307  .391  1629  5493   615  1293   251    44   172   722   502  1416    53    85
Brennan Boesch       .247  .299  .398   557  2079   215   513   101    18    59   289   144   507    27    85

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Justin Verlander   222  133    0    3.69  433  433     2829 2597 1161  250  940 2752    118

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Miguel Cabrera    1B     69%  23%   5%   2%   1%      Manny Ramirez        Richie Zisk       Jason Giambi
Magglio Ordonez   RF     14%  26%  20%  21%  19%     Pedro Guerrero       Carl Furillo       Wally Joyner
Victor Martinez   DH      8%  24%  23%  30%  16%        David Segui         Jose Vidro       Mike Sweeney
Ryan Raburn       LF     13%  24%  19%  20%  24%     Rick Reichardt         Wally Post     Dave Henderson
Carlos Guillen    2B     20%  17%  20%  24%  20%      Marty McManus         Bill Doran         Ray Durham
Austin Jackson    CF      8%  15%  29%  28%  20%      Roberto Kelly         Adam Jones      Jose Cardenal
Jhonny Peralta    SS     15%  20%  30%  23%  12%         Jason Wood       Jesus Alfaro       Leo Cardenas
Scott Sizemore    2B      6%   8%  15%  26%  44%         Nick Green       Jeff Blauser         Jed Hansen
Timo Perez        LF      1%   2%   4%  10%  82%        Joe Orsulak        Bill Virdon         Jay Payton
Scott Thorman     1B      0%   2%   3%  16%  79%          Mike Bell       Chris Widger      George Canale
Andy Dirks        LF      1%   3%   4%  10%  83%      Lonnie Maclin       Bruce Fields    Dallas Williams
Brandon Inge      3B      1%   5%  10%  18%  65%       Shane Halter         Jed Hansen      Travis Fryman
Brennan Boesch    3B      0%   3%   8%  21%  69%    Tony Perezchica   Archi Cianfrocco      Ivanon Coffie
Casper Wells      CF      2%   5%  16%  29%  48%       Jason Cooper         Ray Sadler     Jeromy Burnitz
Will Rhymes       2B      1%   2%   6%  18%  73%   Mickey Morandini     Craig Reynolds         Jerry Remy
Alex Avila        C       3%  11%  18%  30%  37%     Jonathan StillMaximiliano Ramirez         Bob Henley
Ryan Strieby      LF      0%   1%   3%   8%  88%        Paul Torres       Sean Freeman    Richard Johnson
Don Kelly         LF      1%   1%   2%   7%  89%      Hosken Powell       Ryan Fleming         Leo Garcia
Brandon Douglas   2B      0%   1%   4%  16%  79%    Onix Concepcion    Placido Polanco       Ismael Gallo
Clete Thomas      CF      3%   3%  11%  26%  57%      Damon Mashore      Scott Lusader        Brad Snyder
Ramon Santiago    SS      3%   6%  15%  27%  48%     Casey Candaele      Kevin Stocker         Ron Oester
Ben Guez          RF      0%   0%   1%   4%  94%         Juan Rocha      Brett Carroll       Hector Perez
Maxim St. Pierre  C       2%   3%   6%  17%  72%       Chad Moeller     Charlie Greene        Chris Ashby
Danny Worth       SS      0%   1%   3%   9%  86%    Marco Pernalete        Mendy Lopez         Adam Haley
Mike Rabelo       C       1%   1%   1%   4%  93%      Mike DiFelice      Frank Charles        Kevin Brown
Audy Ciriaco      3B      1%   1%   1%   2%  96%          Tony Pena     Franklin Parra      Francis Gomez
Clay Timpner      RF      0%   0%   0%   1%  99%   Steve McAllister        Joey Aragon   Jason Fitzgerald
Omir Santos       C       0%   1%   1%   6%  92%     Charlie Greene       Pedro Grifol       Chris Tremie
Argenis Diaz      SS      0%   0%   0%   3%  97%         Benny Ruiz       Jim Scranton  Freddie Benavides
Cale Iorg         SS      0%   0%   0%   1%  99%        Tim Holland       Chuck Abbott   Kelly Dransfeldt

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Joaquin Benoit    RP      68%    29%     4%      Troy Percival       Scot Shields      Ugueth Urbina
Justin Verlander  SP      82%    12%     5%     Camilo Pascual         Jake Peavy       Kevin Appier
Max Scherzer      SP      74%    17%     8%         David Cone        John Smoltz          Bob Welch
Jose Valverde     RP      44%    45%    11%     Jason Kershner     Juan Berenguer         Eric Plunk
Ryan Perry        RP      18%    57%    25%    Charlie Kerfeld     Kirk Bullinger        Luis DeLeon
Joel Zumaya       RP      30%    39%    32%     Frank Williams        Bobby Jenks         Brad Lidge
Robbie Weinhardt  RP      18%    44%    38%       Tim Drummond       Andy Shipman        Jeff Dedmon
Bobby Seay        RP      20%    39%    41%        Kevin Tolar       Greg Cadaret          Joe Price
Daniel Schlereth  RP      10%    45%    46%    Armando Almanza      Tyler Johnson       Dennys Reyes
Phil Coke         SP      11%    53%    36%        Steve Avery         Doug Davis      Chris Hammond
John Bale         RP      18%    33%    48%      Rheal Cormier        Sparky Lyle    Vic Darensbourg
Rick Porcello     SP      10%    60%    30%       Mark Littell        Joe Johnson            Joe Roa
Brad Thomas       RP       4%    36%    59%        David Wells       Jim Crawford        Juan Agosto
Mariano Gomez     RP       6%    26%    68%   Chris Cumberland         Jim Brewer          Bob Smith
Al Alburquerque   RP       9%    32%    59%       Tom Thurberg       Brian Bowles     Anthony Chavez
Brendan Wise      RP       4%    30%    67%         Bob Miller        Tommie Sisk    Larry Bearnarth
Adam Wilk         SP       5%    43%    52%      Blaine Beatty   Bobby Livingston        Steve Comer
Zach Simons       RP       3%    24%    73%        Terry Bross      Victor Moreno    Jason Gilfillan
Fu-Te Ni          RP       3%    25%    72%       Billy Brewer         Juan Perez      Matt Thornton
Jeremy Bonderman  SP       2%    29%    69%    Anthony Telford        Don Wengert     Chris Codiroli
Lester Oliveros   RP       4%    24%    71%     Chris Schroder         Brad Baker          Ken Giard
Billy Buckner     SP       1%    22%    77%         Ryan Drese        John Snyder      Tim Harikkala
Jacob Turner      SP       1%    24%    74%        Bob Wolcott      Brandon Leese         Mike Bovee
Alfredo Figaro    SP       1%    20%    79%         Bill Swift      Matt Achilles    Mickey Callaway
Brayan Villarreal SP       1%    17%    82%        Boof Bonser         Jason Bell    Nelson Figueroa
Andrew Oliver     SP       0%    10%    90%       Scott Aldred        Phil Norton       Adam Bostick
Jose Ortega       RP       1%    10%    90%         Sean Green          Jon Berry       Jeff Kennard
Charles Furbush   SP       0%     6%    94%         Bryan Ward     Bryan Braswell          Nate Teut
Enrique Gonzalez  SP       0%     2%    98%    Todd Van Poppel           Lou Pote          Tony Mack
Ryan Ketchner     SP       0%     3%    97%       Benj Sampson         Randy Leek      Brian Abraham
Duane Below       SP       0%     1%    99%         Matt White       Josh Stewart  Danny Christensen
Ruddy Lugo        SP       0%     2%    98%        Chris Rojas Runelvys Hernandez         Steve Olin

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Miguel Cabrera          54%      64%      86%      15%       0%      76%      63%       0%
Magglio Ordonez         36%      27%      12%       0%       0%       1%       6%       0%
Victor Martinez         28%      14%      13%       1%       0%       3%       5%       0%
Ryan Raburn             13%       8%      26%       0%       0%       2%       6%       0%
Carlos Guillen           9%      10%       6%       0%       1%       0%       2%       0%
Austin Jackson          13%       4%       0%       8%      39%       0%       0%      29%
Jhonny Peralta           5%       2%       4%       6%       1%       4%       0%       0%
Scott Sizemore           3%       3%       1%       0%       1%       1%       1%       0%
Timo Perez              10%       1%       1%       0%       0%       1%       1%       2%
Scott Thorman            1%       0%       3%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%
Andy Dirks               4%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%      12%
Brandon Inge             0%       1%       2%       0%       3%       2%       0%       0%
Brennan Boesch           1%       0%       1%       0%       7%       2%       0%       1%
Casper Wells             0%       0%       3%       0%       7%       2%       0%       0%
Will Rhymes              7%       1%       0%       0%      18%       0%       0%       5%
Alex Avila               1%       4%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Ryan Strieby             0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Don Kelly                4%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Brandon Douglas         11%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Clete Thomas             1%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       4%
Ramon Santiago           7%       6%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Ben Guez                 0%       0%       1%       0%       2%       1%       0%       1%
Maxim St. Pierre         2%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Danny Worth              1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Mike Rabelo              3%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Audy Ciriaco             1%       0%       2%       0%       3%       1%       0%       0%
Clay Timpner             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Omir Santos              2%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Argenis Diaz             1%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Joaquin Benoit            60%        95%        96%         4%        63%
Justin Verlander          50%        88%        88%         5%        93%
Max Scherzer              40%        80%        92%         1%        77%
Jose Valverde             36%        82%        90%         0%        64%
Ryan Perry                13%        60%        36%         0%        68%
Joel Zumaya               21%        59%        53%         1%        69%
Robbie Weinhardt          13%        54%         7%         1%        85%
Bobby Seay                20%        49%        35%         2%        75%
Daniel Schlereth          10%        46%        62%         0%        83%
Phil Coke                  3%        40%         4%         1%        68%
John Bale                 13%        42%        15%         4%        70%
Rick Porcello              1%        30%         0%         6%        49%
Brad Thomas                3%        29%         0%         1%        79%
Mariano Gomez              4%        26%         3%         1%        77%
Al Alburquerque            6%        33%        27%         0%        74%
Brendan Wise               3%        22%         0%         1%        88%
Adam Wilk                  2%        16%         0%        29%        30%
Zach Simons                2%        22%         7%         0%        54%
Fu-Te Ni                   3%        21%        23%         0%        40%
Jeremy Bonderman           0%         8%         0%         1%        19%
Lester Oliveros            3%        22%        29%         0%        55%
Billy Buckner              0%         5%         0%         0%        38%
Jacob Turner               0%         6%         0%         2%        27%
Alfredo Figaro             0%         5%         0%         0%        54%
Brayan Villarreal          0%         5%         5%         0%        15%
Andrew Oliver              0%         1%         2%         0%        13%
Jose Ortega                0%         7%         1%         0%        62%
Charles Furbush            0%         1%         1%         0%         7%
Enrique Gonzalez           0%         1%         1%         0%        14%
Ryan Ketchner              0%         1%         0%         1%         8%
Duane Below                0%         0%         0%         0%         8%
Ruddy Lugo                 0%         0%         0%         0%        10%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Baltimore Orioles
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
Houston Astros
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers
Minnesota Twins
San Francisco Giants
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
Chicago White Sox

Dan Szymborski Posted: February 03, 2011 at 05:21 PM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Davo Dozier Posted: February 03, 2011 at 06:03 PM (#3742618)
30 starts and 136 innings for Phil Coke!

(Yes, I know we're not supposed to use ZIPS for that, but..wow. That'd have to be some kind of record!)
   2. Accent Shallow Posted: February 03, 2011 at 06:15 PM (#3742632)
Speaking of Coke, I can't believe he projects better than Porcello. (He's also not 22, so maybe that would be affecting his projection?)
   3. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: February 03, 2011 at 06:31 PM (#3742652)
Fewest innings; min 30 starts

Tony Armas              154.0      30      2006
Ken Cloude              155.1      30      1998
Kyle Kendrick           155.2      30      2008
Joba Chamberlain        157.1      31      2009
Bobby Witt              157.2      31      1986
Mark Hendrickson        158.1      30      2003
Ed Whitson              158.2      30      1985
Odalis Perez            159.2      30      2008
Fritz Peterson          160.1      30      1974
Jeriome Robertson       160.2      31      2003 
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 03, 2011 at 06:47 PM (#3742679)
Yeah, ignore the IP totals for Coke. ZiPS knows about historical relief-->starter conversions but doesn't know what to do in this case because the relievers that are turned into starters aren't typically LOOGYs.
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 03, 2011 at 06:48 PM (#3742680)
Oops. I sometimes don't remember to change the age in ZiPS (automatic with hitters, not yet with pitchers). Coke's projection is about to gt worse.
   6. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 03, 2011 at 06:53 PM (#3742684)
OK, Coke's new projection stuff is up.
   7. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 03, 2011 at 06:54 PM (#3742685)
   8. Accent Shallow Posted: February 03, 2011 at 06:59 PM (#3742691)
Thanks Dan. Coke still projects better than I would have thought.
   9. Forsch 10 From Navarone (Dayn) Posted: February 03, 2011 at 07:17 PM (#3742715)
Does anyone in the AL Central have a good bullpen?
   10. J. Bowman, upon reflection, does hate pants Posted: February 03, 2011 at 07:30 PM (#3742730)
Raburn is already 30? That can't be right, that would make me... aw, nuts.
   11. Silencio Posted: February 03, 2011 at 07:32 PM (#3742733)
LOOGYS are sure gonna have it easy when playing against the Tigers. Going from trying to get Hamilton, Mauer and Dunn out in big situations to sitting around and occasionally having to pitch to Alex Avilas.

They aren't too balanced in their rotation or bullpen either.
   12. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 03, 2011 at 07:36 PM (#3742741)
Dayn, I'm done ALC projections and unless I missed someone, I have 9 above-average (ERA+ >108) relievers playing for the 5 AL Central teams. I have the A's and Rangers with 6 apiece.
   13. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 03, 2011 at 07:38 PM (#3742744)
Raburn is already 30? That can't be right, that would make me... aw, nuts.

I actually had that reaction this year when I realized that young flamethrowing Jose Valverde will be 33. Which makes me 33 this year, too.
   14. Forsch 10 From Navarone (Dayn) Posted: February 03, 2011 at 07:39 PM (#3742747)
Dayn, I'm done ALC projections and unless I missed someone, I have 9 above-average (ERA+ >108) relievers playing for the 5 AL Central teams. I have the A's and Rangers with 6 apiece.

This is going to be a fun division.
   15. Rays&Sox; Posted: February 03, 2011 at 08:01 PM (#3742776)
With the way the Tigers have pushed Francisco Martinez(FSL and AFL last year)as a 19 yo, could we get a projection for him as well? Looking at the raw numbers it won't be pretty.
   16. Barnaby Jones Posted: February 03, 2011 at 08:06 PM (#3742786)
Those are some fantastic comps for Scherzer. Cone, Smoltz, and Welch averaged 54 rWAR between them.
   17. morineko Posted: February 03, 2011 at 08:35 PM (#3742813)
ZiPS is estimating Schlereth's ability to not walk people at a higher rate than I would, but I'm a pessimist.
   18. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 03, 2011 at 09:06 PM (#3742834)
ZiPS is estimating Schlereth's ability to not walk people at a higher rate than I would, but I'm a pessimist.

Given how pessimistic people seem to feel ZiPS is, if you're a bigger pessimist, you might need some Zoloft!
   19. Austin Posted: February 04, 2011 at 12:10 AM (#3743031)
Two of the defensive projections surprised me a bit: Inge and Ordonez are both average in ZiPS' eyes. In the former case, I suspect that he's on the high end of AV, and his age is dragging him down; in the latter, I imagine that he's on the lower end, and decent 2007 and 2010 seasons by most defensive systems' measurements are propping him up. But I would have had Inge pegged at VG and Ordonez at FR, for sure.
   20. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 04, 2011 at 12:26 AM (#3743044)
Austin, good eye. I got a consensus + age of +3 range for Inge and -3 for Ordonez.

I do like doing it in tiers. I feel that it more accurately represents the granularity we have measuring defense.
   21. Der-K thinks the Essex Green were a good band. Posted: February 04, 2011 at 03:53 AM (#3743157)
Which makes me 33 this year, too.
So is Brad Thomas (not 23).
   22. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: February 04, 2011 at 03:57 AM (#3743159)
Given how pessimistic people seem to feel ZiPS is, if you're a bigger pessimist, you might need some Zoloft!
speaking of pessimistic, victor martinez: wow.

guy averaged .299/.365/.475 over the last 4 years, and ZiPS saw fit to lop off 20 points of OBP and slugging. guy's had a 120 OPS+ over the last 4 years, but is given only a 32% chance of being above average. at catcher, no less.
   23. Autobahn Posted: February 04, 2011 at 04:04 AM (#3743160)
Brennan Boesch is listed at the wrong position.

But yeah you pretty much summed it up Dan, there's not much in way of reinforcements if anyone starts spending significant time on the DL.
   24. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 04, 2011 at 05:17 AM (#3743188)
So is Brad Thomas (not 23).

Oops, I'll have to fix that.

guy averaged .299/.365/.475 over the last 4 years, and ZiPS saw fit to lop off 20 points of OBP and slugging. guy's had a 120 OPS+ over the last 4 years, but is given only a 32% chance of being above average. at catcher, no less.

Guy's not young.

The % are for DH, not catcher (and if the cutoff is the mean, 45% average, not 32%).

ZiPS isn't being notably extreme. Marcel's projection is nearly identical, so there's nothing really uniquely odd that ZiPS is doing here.
   25. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 04, 2011 at 05:20 AM (#3743189)
Yeah, Boesch should be listed as RF. Dunno what's up with that.
   26. Select Storage Device Posted: February 04, 2011 at 05:28 AM (#3743191)
I can't decide who has the better name: Arquimedes Euclides Caminero or Al Alburquerque.

Maxim St. Pierre is great, too.
   27. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: February 04, 2011 at 07:27 AM (#3743207)
Timo Perez is 36 years old?!

I'm old :(
   28. ahaldar Posted: February 04, 2011 at 06:08 PM (#3743364)
Timo Perez is still in baseball?
   29. RJ in TO Posted: February 04, 2011 at 06:16 PM (#3743370)
It's nice to see that the Iorg family is continuing to produce players who can't hit.
   30. xeifrank Posted: February 04, 2011 at 06:23 PM (#3743373)
If the season started today, I'd pick the Tigers to edge out the Twins and a little behind the White Sox.
************************
I'd probably go with Twins, Tigers, White Sox.
   31. mtc1009 Posted: February 05, 2011 at 12:50 AM (#3743686)
Why do you bring up age with the Tigers when in fact they aren't that old at all. Miguel Cabrera is just 27, Austin Jackson is 24 I believe, Raburn just turned 30, Peralta is under 30, Sizemore is 25 or 26, Avila is 24, Boesch is in his mid 20s, Wells is 25, Victor Martinez just turned 32 which isn't old when you compare it to other DH's and everybody in their rotation save for Brad Penny is 28 or under. Really Ordonez and Inge are the only two old guys that the Tigers are expecting contributions from. I don't think that's that many.

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