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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, November 12, 2010

2011 ZiPS Projections - Florida Marlins

An 80-82 record has to be at least a mild disappointment coming off of an 87-win 2nd-place finish in 2009, but the Marlins do have a lot of things to be happy about going into 2011.  Josh Johnson became a serious Cy Young candidate, Anibal Sanchez pitched well and for a whole season without his arm falling off, and Chris Volstad established himself as a reasonable back-of-the-rotation starter.  As usual, a few careers were revived in the Marlin bullpen, Clay Hensley and Jose Veras this time around.

The Marlins have done extremely well on a shoestring budget, but the team needs quite a bit of luck on the injury front to compete in any given year because the lack of investment in the team really causes there to be depth issues.  The front-line talent is high-quality, but the depth is thinner than Madonna’s creepy veiny arms.  The projected rotation is good, but when bad things happen (which is a theme for pitchers), they’re a team that uses Nate Robertson in a division with a team picks up Roy Oswalt.  A focused Mets organization could make keeping up with the NL East an even bigger task.

On offense, they’ll have to aggressively make moves with Gaby Sanchez or Logan Morrison.  The team doesn’t have the wallet to compete for talent, so they can’t afford to spend too much time figuring out which surplus talent to hang on to.  There’s also the question of what to do with Dan Uggla now that they crystal embedded in his hand has started to blink.  In a refreshing change of pace, the Marlins may not be to blame for this star’s departure as Uggla seems to have taken a pretty tough line in negotiations, already turning down a 4-year, $48 million offer.

Next up:  Arizona

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age    BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Hanley Ramirez    R    SS  27   .309 .388 .512 153 592 107 183  36   3  26  85  71 104  35  11  134
Logan Morrison    L    1B  23   .284 .372 .452 144 538  82 153  38   8  12  73  73  99   5   5  116
Dan Uggla         R    2B  31   .259 .351 .469 150 555  89 144  30   1  28  87  75 151   4   2  112
Mike Stanton      R    RF  21   .246 .327 .493 160 598  79 147  32   4  36  98  68 213   5   3  112
Chris Coghlan     L    LF  26   .286 .357 .414 130 507  81 145  31   5   8  53  51  92  18   6  102
Gaby Sanchez      R    1B  27   .272 .340 .436 143 523  68 142  31   2  17  75  52  90   8   2  103
Cameron Maybin    R    CF  24   .254 .330 .402 140 508  83 129  23   8  12  57  53 145  16   5   92
Scott Cousins     L    CF  26   .256 .307 .408 135 468  64 120  24   7  11  52  34 123  15   6   86
Hector Luna       R    3B  31   .256 .312 .404 116 394  51 101  18   2  12  50  29  82   5   3   87
John Raynor       R    LF  27   .254 .322 .366 100 355  53  90  16   3   6  29  32 108  18   6   81
John Baker        R    C   30   .247 .330 .371  77 251  32  62  14   1   5  29  29  59   0   0   84
Brian Barden      R    3B  30   .272 .322 .383 106 313  39  85  16   2   5  31  21  70   2   4   85
Ronny Paulino     R    C   30   .258 .314 .379  90 298  30  77  16   1   6  37  25  56   1   1   81
Donnie Murphy     R    SS  28   .227 .282 .429  67 203  29  46  12   1   9  27  14  60   1   0   84
Osvaldo Martinez  R    SS  23   .264 .323 .349 160 598  92 158  30   6   3  57  47  84  12   8   77
Danny Richar      L    2B  28   .262 .300 .376 112 412  48 108  22   2   7  40  22  76   7   5   77
Emilio Bonifacio  B    CF  26   .262 .314 .332 141 503  76 132  18   7   1  33  39 109  26   9   71
Vinny Rottino     R    LF  31   .248 .309 .341 119 431  53 107  21   2   5  49  37  69  11   3   71
Mike Lamb         L    3B  35   .257 .303 .355 101 296  32  76  13   2   4  38  19  32   0   0   73
Bryan Petersen    L    LF  25   .247 .313 .355 131 453  58 112  17   4   8  41  41 107  10   8   76
Matt Dominguez    R    3B  21   .231 .300 .372 160 592  65 137  37   2  14  80  53 136   0   2   76
Chad Tracy        L    3B  31   .249 .308 .354  86 229  22  57  12   0   4  31  19  47   0   1   74
Wes Helms         R    3B  35   .238 .300 .353 117 235  22  56  11   2   4  34  18  61   0   1   71
Travis Dawkins    R    SS  32   .235 .289 .354  93 336  34  79  20   1   6  30  23 114   4   3   68
Brett Carroll     R    RF  28   .213 .287 .365 107 301  40  64  15   2   9  33  23  86   3   3   70
Brad Davis        R    C   28   .217 .281 .358  95 313  31  68  18   1   8  35  27  89   2   2   67
Mark Saccomanno   R    1B  31   .231 .271 .363 131 477  54 110  21   3  12  56  25 117   2   3   65
Mike Rivera       R    C   34   .214 .292 .316  58 187  15  40  10   0   3  22  18  55   2   2   60
Brett Hayes       R    C   27   .218 .261 .336  81 271  26  59  12   1   6  26  15  71   1   2   56
Chris Hatcher     R    C   26   .176 .244 .285  89 284  30  50  11   1   6  31  22 121   2   2   39

Defensive Projections

Player             CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Hanley Ramirez                                     FR/96
Logan Morrison             FR/134
Dan Uggla                          FR/129
Mike Stanton                                               VG/140  FR/140  VG/140
Chris Coghlan                      AV/162  AV/126          FR/98
Gaby Sanchez               AV/131          PO/147
Cameron Maybin                                                     VG/141
Scott Cousins                                              VG/114  AV/176  AV/116
Hector Luna                VG/198  AV/109  VG/103  PO/109
John Raynor                                                AV/140  FR/106  AV/140
John Baker         FR
Brian Barden               FR/126  PO/121  AV/117  PO/111  AV/98   FR/173  AV/108
Ronny Paulino      AV
Donnie Murphy                      AV/129  AV/104  FR/108
Osvaldo Martinez                                   AV/173
Danny Richar                       FR/154  AV/127  PO/118  FR/172
Emilio Bonifacio                   AV/170  AV/122          AV/123  FR/160  AV/132
Vinny Rottino      FR      FR/126          FR/128          FR/113          FR/105
Mike Lamb                  FR/114  PO/128  PO/116
Bryan Petersen                                             AV/67   FR/160  AV/67
Matt Dominguez                             AV/103
Chad Tracy                 AV/87           FR/87           FR/87
Wes Helms                  AV/129          FR/93
Travis Dawkins                     AV/77   FR/98   PO/157  AV/111
Brett Carroll              AV/113                          AV/86   PO/141  AV/86
Brad Davis         AV
Mark Saccomanno            FR/147          PO/155
Mike Rivera        AV      AV/114
Brett Hayes        AV
Chris Hatcher      VG

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Josh Johnson      R     27    2.87    12    4   28   28  179.0  157   57   11   47  173  147
Ricky Nolasco     R     28    3.78    14   10   31   30  188.3  180   79   23   41  181  112
Anibal Sanchez    R     27    3.83    11    8   26   26  148.0  142   63   11   61  121  110
Alex Sanabia      R     22    4.11     8    6   26   23  131.3  131   60   12   48   82  103
Chris Volstad     R     24    4.61    11   12   32   32  179.7  189   92   22   62  116   92
Tom Koehler       R     25    5.24     7    9   25   24  122.0  139   71   13   64   81   81
Sean West         L     25    5.44     6    9   21   21  102.7  114   62   13   60   78   78
Andrew Miller     L     26    5.98     5    9   29   23  114.3  132   76   12   89   90   71
Brian Lawrence    R     35    6.05     5    9   19   18   99.7  133   67   14   34   57   70
James Houser      L     26    6.10     2    4   24   12   69.3   80   47   11   47   42   69
Omar Poveda       R     23    6.15     3    6   14   14   74.7   86   51   12   46   42   69
Wes Whisler       L     28    6.60     5   12   31   21  118.7  159   87   15   74   50   64
Jeff Allison      R     26    7.27     4   13   28   24  112.7  157   91   22   56   47   58

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Brian Sanches     R     32    3.47     3    2   57    0   59.7   51   23    6   25   56  122
Leo Nunez         R     27    3.66     5    3   69    0   66.3   61   27    7   23   62  115
Clay Hensley      R     31    3.66     4    3   64    0   66.3   60   27    5   31   58  115
Burke Badenhop    R     28    3.88     4    3   49    0   62.7   60   27    5   24   48  109
Will Ohman        L     33    3.89     1    1   60    0   39.3   34   17    4   20   41  109
Renyel Pinto      L     28    4.03     2    1   50    0   44.7   39   20    4   28   43  105
Jose Veras        R     31    4.02     4    3   63    0   65.0   57   29    7   37   67  105
Armando Benitez   R     38    4.32     1    1    9    0    8.3    8    4    1    4    7   98
Jhan Marinez      R     22    4.35     2    2   38    1   41.3   34   20    5   31   46   97
Dan Meyer         L     29    4.67     3    3   63    0   61.7   60   32    7   36   49   90
Taylor Tankersley L     28    4.75     3    3   63    0   47.3   45   25    7   25   41   89
Garrett Parcell   R     26    4.91     3    4   41    0   51.3   54   28    5   29   36   86
Jose Ceda         R     24    4.92     3    3   35    5   53.0   46   29    7   45   54   86
Scott Strickland  R     35    5.01     2    3   41    0   41.3   43   23    5   24   34   84
Steven Cishek     R     25    5.02     4    5   47    0   61.0   63   34    5   42   44   84
Hunter Jones      L     27    5.15     3    4   33    3   57.7   64   33    6   31   39   82
Sandy Rosario     R     25    5.18     3    5   26    5   66.0   80   38    8   22   52   82
Tim Wood          R     28    5.23     2    3   44    0   51.7   57   30    6   27   32   81
Tom Mastny        R     30    5.30     4    5   34    7   69.7   76   41    9   36   53   80
Jorge Sosa        R     33    5.30     4    6   41    6   71.3   83   42    9   31   51   80
Adalberto Mendez  R     29    5.34     4    6   42    5   64.0   67   38    7   43   52   79
Jay Buente        R     27    5.37     2    3   44    0   62.0   64   37    7   46   55   79
Ryan Tucker       R     24    5.74     3    5   25    9   62.7   71   40    6   48   39   74
Chris Schroder    R     32    5.82     1    2   29    0   34.0   38   22    4   25   24   73
Kris Harvey       R     27    5.97     2    4   26    1   37.7   44   25    5   27   24   71
Brett Sinkbeil    R     26    6.33     3    7   50    9   86.7  114   61   10   49   47   67

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Hanley Ramirez      .300  .369  .490  2606 10249  1724  3072   593    69   407  1350  1047  1602   547   124
Dan Uggla           .255  .339  .454  1783  6711  1035  1713   366    20   310   982   805  1636    39   106
Chris Coghlan       .282  .353  .406  1185  4623   725  1304   276    38    73   463   464   811   120    99
Gaby Sanchez        .266  .335  .424  1054  3804   474  1012   229    14   115   525   374   618    46    98

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Ricky Nolasco      170  125    0    4.14  391  371     2304 2283 1059  309  526 2123    102
Chris Volstad      145  136    0    4.41  388  388     2232 2266 1094  282  767 1506     96
Josh Johnson       144   86    0    3.46  384  375     2389 2147  917  178  723 2053    125
Anibal Sanchez     129  101    0    3.93  318  318     1823 1775  796  153  777 1464    108

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Hanley Ramirez    SS    92%   6%   2%   0%   0%      Gil McDougald     Alex Rodriguez        Jim Fregosi
Logan Morrison    1B     9%  27%  24%  28%  12%        James Loney     Daryl Sconiers     Elbie Fletcher
Dan Uggla         2B    53%  19%  13%  10%   6%          Ron Santo         Troy Glaus        Dean Palmer
Mike Stanton      RF    20%  23%  15%  16%  25%      Phil Plantier         Joe Citari       Mark McGwire
Chris Coghlan     LF     6%  19%  21%  26%  27%      David DeJesus        Greg Briley      Terrence Long
Gaby Sanchez      1B     3%  16%  20%  35%  26%       Hank Blalock          Steve Cox      Jerry Morales
Cameron Maybin    CF     9%  13%  28%  30%  19%  Curtis Granderson        Xavier Paul     Reggie Sanders
Scott Cousins     CF     6%   8%  20%  31%  35%    Corey Patterson        Xavier Paul        John Skurla
Hector Luna       3B     1%   5%  10%  23%  61%       Jesus Alfaro      Chuck Jackson        Steve Sisco
John Raynor       LF     1%   2%   4%  13%  80%    Reggie Williams       Larry Bigbie      Jerome Walton
John Baker        C      3%  12%  20%  33%  33%       Chad Moeller    Mike Fitzgerald       Dwight Lowry
Brian Barden      3B     1%   3%   6%  17%  73%      Aaron Ledesma         Ron Oester          Jose Leon
Ronny Paulino     C      2%  11%  18%  32%  38%             Ed Ott   Yorvit Torrealba         Jason Hill
Donnie Murphy     SS     6%  12%  26%  29%  26%     Brandon Larson        Mendy Lopez       George Arias
Osvaldo Martinez  SS     1%   5%  17%  32%  46%     Scott Fletcher    Frankie Gustine            Chin Hu
Danny Richar      2B     2%   2%   5%  14%  76%         Tim Krauss         Garth Iorg        Steve Lyons
Emilio Bonifacio  CF     0%   1%   5%  18%  75%         Cecil Espy         Randy Winn       Alex Sanchez
Vinny Rottino     LF     0%   0%   1%   3%  95%    Marvin Thompson       Ryan Fleming       Rick Manning
Mike Lamb         3B     1%   1%   2%   8%  88%     Mark Christman      Edgar Caceres        Juan Castro
Bryan Petersen    LF     0%   1%   1%   4%  94%    Kevin Koslofski        Pedro Swann      Vernon Thomas
Matt Dominguez    3B     1%   2%   5%  12%  80%       Juan Espinal    Terry Jorgensen    Brett Bonvechio
Chad Tracy        3B     1%   1%   4%  11%  84%         Jason Wood     Chris Saunders        Josh Klimek
Wes Helms         3B     1%   1%   2%   5%  91%       Jeff Branson         Jason Wood         Dave McKay
Travis Dawkins    SS     1%   1%   5%  14%  79%      Pete Mackanin     Steve Scarsone  Trace Coquillette
Brett Carroll     RF     0%   0%   0%   1%  99%         Mike Beams     James Clifford       Ryan Goleski
Brad Davis        C      0%   1%   4%  15%  80%     Jeff Ontiveros         Bill Hayes         Kevin Cash
Mark Saccomanno   1B     0%   0%   0%   1%  98%        Tommy Davis       Matt Padgett           Lou List
Mike Rivera       C      0%   2%   3%   9%  86%  George Mitterwald       Chad Moeller     Keith McDonald
Brett Hayes       C      0%   1%   1%   4%  94%      Joe Cipolloni       Tommy Duenas      Dane Sardinha
Chris Hatcher     C      0%   0%   0%   0% 100%     Jerrey Thurston  Francisco Morales     Steve Lomasney

Player            PO     TOP   MID   BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Josh Johnson      SP     97%    3%    0%         Roy Oswalt      Bert Blyleven       Roy Halladay
Brian Sanches     RP     47%   44%   10%         Dave Tobik      Mike Trombley     Guillermo Mota
Leo Nunez         RP     34%   52%   13%         Steve Reed      Mike Connolly         Rich Bordi
Clay Hensley      RP     34%   53%   13%        Cory Bailey        Gregg Olson      Ryan Dempster
Ricky Nolasco     SP     58%   39%    3%    Scott Sanderson   Dennis Eckersley     Frank Castillo
Anibal Sanchez    SP     55%   41%    4%       Walt Terrell        Tommy Boggs        Kevin Brown
Burke Badenhop    RP     28%   50%   22%       Ray Krawczyk       Jose Jimenez        Mike Buddie
Will Ohman        RP     32%   45%   23%     Mike Remlinger        Kevin Tolar          Joe Price
Jose Veras        RP     20%   53%   26%       Dwayne Henry        Colter Bean       Richie Lewis
Alex Sanabia      SP     40%   48%   12%      John Mitchell      Joey Hamilton        Jimmy Jones
Armando Benitez   RP     36%   20%   45%      Russ Springer     Matt Whiteside       Mike Fetters
Jhan Marinez      RP     15%   40%   45%         Eric Plunk       Eric Cammack    Armando Benitez
Chris Volstad     SP      9%   62%   29%       Brian Denman       Will Cunnane      Jason Dickson
Dan Meyer         RP      6%   36%   58%        Erick Burke          Ron Mahay  Brian Shackelford
Taylor Tankersley RP      6%   36%   58%          Ron Mahay         Todd Genke         Joe Horgan
Garrett Parcell   RP      5%   31%   64%         Dave Smith         Alan Mills        Mike Timlin
Jose Ceda         RP      3%   30%   67%      Matt Anderson       Joe Borowski    Lariel Gonzalez
Scott Strickland  RP      7%   25%   68%         Jim Brower      Jim Dougherty      Ernie Camacho
Steven Cishek     RP      3%   26%   71% Heathcliff Slocumb     Marc Pisciotta      Julio DePaula
Hunter Jones      RP      2%   20%   78%         Ken Vining       Tim Hamulack    Philip Barzilla
Sandy Rosario     RP      1%   21%   78%      Matt Schwager            Joe Roa          Jose Lima
Tim Wood          RP      2%   20%   78%         Mike Mills         Stan Kyles      Andy Mitchell
Tom Koehler       SP      2%   31%   67%      Matt Achilles        Dave Hooten     Jason Phillips
Tom Mastny        RP      1%   17%   82%   Jamie Brewington        Chuck Smith         Mark Small
Jorge Sosa        RP      2%   17%   81%       Danny Graves         Shawn Camp         Chuck Crim
Adalberto Mendez  RP      1%   14%   85%     Ryan Henderson        Marcus Gwyn      Victor Moreno
Jay Buente        RP      1%   13%   86%       Pete Sikaras         Rusty Ford       Mike Schultz
Sean West         SP      1%   20%   79%     Phil Dumatrait        Alex Graman        Mike Curtis
Ryan Tucker       SP      0%    8%   91%          Tim Byron        Ricky Steik        Eric Parent
Chris Schroder    RP      2%   11%   88%        Jim Dedrick     Jason Grimsley      Jim Dougherty
Kris Harvey       RP      1%    7%   92%           Al Osuna      Julien Tucker        Rick Greene
Andrew Miller     SP      0%    5%   95%      Mike Wodnicki       Eric Hillman         Ken Vining
Brian Lawrence    SP      0%    7%   93%      Brian Moehler         Tim Kester       Charles Nagy
James Houser      SP      0%    8%   92%         Matt White        Jason Flach       Rafael Roque
Omar Poveda       SP      0%    5%   95%     Keith Bucktrot      Jonah Bayliss       Jared Jensen
Brett Sinkbeil    RP      0%    1%   99%      Mike Flanagan      Kevin Legault          Tom Edens
Wes Whisler       SP      0%    0%  100%     Mike Prochaska     Jeff Musselman       Benj Sampson
Jeff Allison      SP      0%    0%  100%     Kyle Middleton    Greg Biercevicz      Edward Valdez

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Hanley Ramirez          62%      64%      58%      14%       3%      31%      36%      54%
Logan Morrison          26%      44%      10%      23%      33%       0%       7%       0%
Dan Uggla                6%      19%      26%       3%       0%      42%      10%       0%
Mike Stanton             2%       6%      43%       8%       7%      72%      11%       0%
Chris Coghlan           28%      24%       2%       3%       7%       1%       1%       6%
Gaby Sanchez            11%       9%       6%       4%       0%       2%       1%       2%
Cameron Maybin           3%       6%       1%       0%      33%       0%       0%       2%
Scott Cousins            4%       1%       3%       0%      19%       0%       0%       2%
Hector Luna              5%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
John Raynor              4%       3%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       3%
John Baker               5%      10%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brian Barden            16%       4%       2%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%
Ronny Paulino            7%       3%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Donnie Murphy            1%       0%       7%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Osvaldo Martinez         5%       2%       0%       6%      20%       0%       0%       2%
Danny Richar             8%       1%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Emilio Bonifacio         5%       1%       0%       0%      25%       0%       0%      28%
Vinny Rottino            2%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Mike Lamb                7%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Bryan Petersen           1%       1%       0%       0%       4%       0%       0%       1%
Matt Dominguez           0%       1%       2%      29%       2%       4%       0%       0%
Chad Tracy               5%       3%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Wes Helms                3%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Travis Dawkins           1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brett Carroll            0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brad Davis               0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Mark Saccomanno          0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Mike Rivera              1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brett Hayes              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Chris Hatcher            0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Josh Johnson              77%        99%        75%        23%        98%
Brian Sanches             38%        87%        66%         1%        72%
Leo Nunez                 34%        82%        64%         4%        61%
Clay Hensley              34%        82%        43%         0%        84%
Ricky Nolasco             19%        84%        74%        59%        41%
Anibal Sanchez            17%        77%        22%         0%        90%
Burke Badenhop            22%        72%        12%         2%        87%
Will Ohman                32%        70%        81%         1%        65%
Jose Veras                15%        61%        86%         0%        58%
Alex Sanabia              11%        65%         2%         3%        83%
Armando Benitez           36%        36%        44%        24%        63%
Jhan Marinez              15%        46%        90%         0%        62%
Chris Volstad              1%        28%         0%         1%        39%
Dan Meyer                  4%        35%        18%         0%        59%
Taylor Tankersley          6%        34%        36%         0%        34%
Garrett Parcell            3%        29%         4%         0%        80%
Jose Ceda                  3%        26%        80%         0%        49%
Scott Strickland           7%        25%        27%         0%        61%
Steven Cishek              3%        18%         8%         0%        85%
Hunter Jones               2%        17%         3%         0%        59%
Sandy Rosario              1%        17%        17%         9%        49%
Tim Wood                   1%        17%         1%         0%        66%
Tom Koehler                0%         8%         0%         0%        68%
Tom Mastny                 1%        11%        11%         0%        48%
Jorge Sosa                 2%        12%         6%         1%        49%
Adalberto Mendez           1%        11%        20%         0%        55%
Jay Buente                 0%        10%        45%         0%        54%
Sean West                  0%         5%         6%         0%        37%
Ryan Tucker                0%         4%         0%         0%        77%
Chris Schroder             2%        12%        12%         0%        59%
Kris Harvey                0%         5%         2%         0%        51%
Andrew Miller              0%         1%        12%         0%        69%
Brian Lawrence             0%         2%         0%         5%        28%
James Houser               0%         1%         0%         0%        26%
Omar Poveda                0%         1%         0%         0%        16%
Brett Sinkbeil             0%         0%         0%         0%        57%
Wes Whisler                0%         0%         0%         0%        38%
Jeff Allison               0%         0%         0%         0%         4%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 12, 2010 at 08:06 AM | 49 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Walt Davis Posted: November 12, 2010 at 10:25 AM (#3688676)
Jerry Morales as a comp for Gaby Sanchez?

The starting 5 is solid enough but that's one thin list of starters after that.
   2. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: November 12, 2010 at 12:02 PM (#3688681)
It seems weird to me that Uggla's comps are all 3B. Is that right? (Not saying it shouldn't be... most players' top ZiPS comps do seem to be at their same positions though.)
   3. Ken015 Posted: November 12, 2010 at 12:46 PM (#3688683)
Is it possible to get a projection for Elih Villanueva, I thought I read where he may have a shot at making the team in 2011. Thanks.
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 12, 2010 at 02:11 PM (#3688698)
ZiPS prefers to have same positions, but it doesn't always get them - baseball history doesn't have as many players as one would like!
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 12, 2010 at 02:13 PM (#3688700)
Villanueva projects pretty well and I should have had him in the initial run. 10-11, 4.62 (ERA+ of 92). Doesn't really like him long term (peak of 99), but he's an acceptable option that I didn't think of.
   6. Dan The Mediocre Posted: November 12, 2010 at 02:56 PM (#3688716)
Hanley Ramirez projects to be a Hall of Fame shortstop.

Sounds about right.
   7. AROM Posted: November 12, 2010 at 03:12 PM (#3688722)
It seems weird to me that Uggla's comps are all 3B. Is that right?


In this case, it sounds exactly right. Second basemen are supposed to be high average, low power guys who can run. Third basemen are low average power hitters who don't run.
   8. RJ in TO Posted: November 12, 2010 at 03:13 PM (#3688724)
ZiPs really doesn't like the future of Uggla - it projects him to put up about 4200 PA of 95 OPS+ offense, to balance out his up-to-now 3500 PA of 117 OPS+ offense. That's a fairly extendedly unpleasant sounding finish to a career.
   9. fra paolo Posted: November 12, 2010 at 03:39 PM (#3688737)
Are these comps based on the player's season-projection-plus-age or his career-plus-projection up to this age?
   10. Frisco Cali Posted: November 12, 2010 at 03:50 PM (#3688741)
Are these comps based on the player's season-projection-plus-age or his career-plus-projection up to this age?

Or a WAG?
   11. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 12, 2010 at 03:54 PM (#3688745)
Armando Benitez is still playing?

36 homers from Mike Stanton! Wow. Phil Plantier comp is interesting.
   12. RJ in TO Posted: November 12, 2010 at 04:00 PM (#3688753)
36 homers from Mike Stanton! Wow. Phil Plantier comp is interesting.

If I remember correctly, this would be a comparison to Phil Plantier in his pre-######-up-back period, when he looked like he was going to be an absolute offensive beast.
   13. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 12, 2010 at 04:12 PM (#3688763)
Are these comps based on the player's season-projection-plus-age or his career-plus-projection up to this age?

Comps are based on recent history, closest years weighed more heavily.
   14. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 12, 2010 at 04:13 PM (#3688764)
Nobody else is surprised/amused to see Gil McDougald and A-Rod as Hanley's top two comps? I know why the system's doing it, but those two don't have much of anything in common.
   15. alkeiper Posted: November 12, 2010 at 04:22 PM (#3688772)
The projected rotation is good, but when bad things happen (which is a theme for pitchers), they're a team that uses Nate Robertson in a division with a team picks up Roy Oswalt.


Hey, the Phillies used Nate Robertson too.
   16. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 12, 2010 at 04:37 PM (#3688780)
Nobody else is surprised/amused to see Gil McDougald and A-Rod as Hanley's top two comps? I know why the system's doing it, but those two don't have much of anything in common.

Yeah, the similarity list is bizarre - as I noted elsewhere, it would be easier if baseball history had more players. Ramirez is special enough that ZiPS has Amos Otis really high on his comp list. ZiPS does use more generic aging factors as the comps get worse.
   17. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 12, 2010 at 04:39 PM (#3688782)
Hey, the Phillies used Nate Robertson too.

True, but they were smart enough to not use him!
   18. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 12, 2010 at 04:42 PM (#3688789)
I know why the system's doing it, but those two don't have much of anything in common.


How bout Mike Stanton's comps - Phil Plantier, Joe Citari, and Mark McGwire. I get they are similar up to this point, but those are three wildly different career paths.
   19. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: November 12, 2010 at 04:43 PM (#3688790)

Hey, the Phillies used Nate Robertson too.


True, but they were smart enough to not use him!
more than twice, anyway.
   20. phaight76 Posted: November 12, 2010 at 04:48 PM (#3688798)
Shouldn't Morrison have an LF rating?
   21. JJ1986 Posted: November 12, 2010 at 04:50 PM (#3688800)
Miami (I guess it's probably New Orleans) is now where former relief pitchers go to die. Scott Strickland? Armando Benitez?
   22. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: November 12, 2010 at 04:59 PM (#3688807)
So it'll probably look something like this:

LF Coghlan*
SS Ramirez
1B Morrison*
2B Uggla
RF Stanton
CF Maybin
3B Luna
C Baker

C Paulino
SS/2B Murphy
CF/UT Bonifacio**
1B/3B Sanchez
OF Cousins*

SP Johnson
SP Sanchez
SP Nolasco
SP Volstad
SP Sanabia
(SP West*)

CL Nunez
RP Sanches
RP Hensley
RP Badenhop
RP Pinto*
RP Meyer*
RP Veras

I didn't do the legwork on the bullpen's contract status, so I may be off on some of those.\

Morrison is the real deal, so while having Sanchez as a 1B/3B backup and pinch hitter is nice, I imagine the Marlins would be able to get an attractive offer for the quintessential league-average first baseman.

If they flip Uggla, Coghlan would slide into second and maybe you'd have LF Morrison, where he spent 2010, and 1B Sanchez. I see that Coghlan is ZiPS rated at 3B but the Fish had every reason to play him there in 2010 if he was the least bit capable and they did not. That leads me to think he can't stick there even in a reserve capacity in the Majors.

Of course, they might bump 3B Luna/Tracy/scrap heap and stick Sanchez there. They put up with 3B Jorge Cantu for a few seasons; Sanchez is going to give you about the same production defensively.

They say they want a catcher given Baker's injury and Paulino's fatness/steroids. So we'll see what happens there.

Emilio Bonifacio will probably get 200 more ABs than is at all sensible to give him.

It'll be 85 wins of talent with a big spread hinging on starting pitching health. And obviously Hanley can't be hurt.

Let's play the Marlins Best Case Scenario Lineup!

LF David DeJesus
SS Alex Rodriguez
1B Logan Morrison
2B Ron Santo
RF Mark McGwire
CF Curtis Granderson
3B Gaby Sanchez
C John Baker

Woohoo.
   23. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 12, 2010 at 05:15 PM (#3688824)
Let's play the Marlins Best Case Scenario Lineup!

LF David DeJesus
SS Alex Rodriguez
1B Logan Morrison
2B Ron Santo
RF Mark McGwire
CF Curtis Granderson
3B Gaby Sanchez
C John Baker


Gaby Sanchez's best comp is....Gaby Sanchez? Dude, you just blew my mind.
   24. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: November 12, 2010 at 05:18 PM (#3688828)
I'd rather have Sanchez, Morrison and Baker and the possibilities contained therein rather than the certainties of their comps. That's all I'm sayin'.
   25. JJ1986 Posted: November 12, 2010 at 05:27 PM (#3688839)
I heard Coghlan at 3B, Morison in LF and Sanchez at 1B.
   26. John DiFool2 Posted: November 12, 2010 at 05:30 PM (#3688843)
ZiPs really doesn't like the future of Uggla - it projects him to put up about 4200 PA of 95 OPS+ offense, to balance out his up-to-now 3500 PA of 117 OPS+ offense. That's a fairly extendedly unpleasant sounding finish to a career.


Nobody's going to give a poor defensive 2B that many PA at that offensive level, unless his name is Biggio (or, like, you know, Jeter). Something is screwy with the formula there.

Anyone a bit disappointed by Hanley? At a stage in his career when he's nearing his prime years, you'd think he would have built on his excellent 23-25 years and really shot through the roof in '10, doing oh I don't know .350/.430/.600 with 40 homers. Instead every major offensive category tanked. Yeah, I could be accused of doing what Mickey Mantle's critics did, but wouldn't everyone love to see Hanley trump A-Rod? Like Uggla I'll also note that Hanley projects to be much worse from here on out than he has been, which given his age doesn't pass the smell test.
   27. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 12, 2010 at 05:37 PM (#3688846)
They say they want a catcher given Baker's injury and Paulino's fatness/steroids.


FWIW, Baker is also a known PED guy, albeit from a fairly long time ago.
   28. Walt Davis Posted: November 12, 2010 at 07:17 PM (#3688923)
Nobody's going to give a poor defensive 2B that many PA at that offensive level, unless his name is Biggio (or, like, you know, Jeter). Something is screwy with the formula there.

Oh there's always something screwy with career projections. Almost all of the projections are of careers that are (on average) way too long for all sorts of reasons. C'mon, it's projecting another 1900 games for Hanley and to finish tied for 36th all-time in games played. As an "average" outcome. That's clearly all possible if he stays healthy and he doesn't decline much as a hitter and/or he can remain at SS until he's 38.

Especially in terms of playing time and somewhat in terms of performance, I tend to think of these as best-case (or at least better-case) scenarios.

The pitchers seem to be a bit more realistic in terms of IP although it's unlikely that Volstad makes it to 2200 innings with a 96 ERA+. Suppan had an excellent 8-year run averaging over 200 IP a year with an ERA+ of 106 and remained healthy ages 32-35 and even he has only made it to 2500 innings. Projecting 10+ more healthy years for any pitcher seems dicey ... projecting that plus league-average or better performance for someone like Volstad (5.6 K/9, 1.7 K/BB) seems extra double dicey.
   29. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: November 12, 2010 at 07:18 PM (#3688924)
Dan, I was wondering if you could do a projection for Diego Moreno of the Bucs on the next round. It'd be rad, if so. Thanks!
   30. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 12, 2010 at 08:08 PM (#3688962)
These projections are great. The Phillies should be worried.
   31. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: November 12, 2010 at 08:58 PM (#3688998)
the Marlins may not be to blame for this star's departure as Uggla seems to have taken a pretty tough line in negotiations, already turning down a 4-year, $48 million offer.


Eh. The Marlins earned the hard-line stance over years of ostensible penury. And I suspect Uggla thinks he'll have a better chance of winning with a team that will actually spend at the deadline.
   32. Tom Nawrocki Posted: November 12, 2010 at 09:17 PM (#3689008)
36 homers from Mike Stanton!


Not to mention 213 strikeouts, and a .246 average. He's the new Mark Reynolds.

Those sure are strange numbers to see from a 21-year-old.
   33. RJ in TO Posted: November 12, 2010 at 09:33 PM (#3689024)
I'll take the over on HR and the under on strikeouts for Stanton. After all, he was K-ing at a rate of "only" one out of every 3 AB this year, and that rate was showing (admittedly small) signs of decreasing with each passing month in the majors - from 0.419 K/AB in June, to 0.312 in July, to 0.287 in August, to 0.285 in Sept/Oct. That's still not great, but a 30% K-rate would be a lot better than the ZiPs suggested rate of 0.356 K/AB.

Of course, it's hard to blame ZiPs for any inaccuracies on Stanton, given the small number of players who have flashed his sort of power and K-rate at such a young age. There just can't be many comparables at all.
   34. Boxkutter Posted: November 12, 2010 at 10:17 PM (#3689051)
I heard Coghlan at 3B, Morison in LF and Sanchez at 1B.


I've heard the same thing. Or I have at least heard they were planning to move Coghlan back to 3B (which he played in college I believe) so the Morrison in LF and Sanchez at 1B part also makes sense.
   35. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 12, 2010 at 11:01 PM (#3689089)
I'll make sure and give Morrison a LF rating.
   36. Walt Davis Posted: November 14, 2010 at 05:50 AM (#3689667)
These projections are great. The Phillies should be worried.

IF the Marlins can stay incredibly healthy and/or do a good job putting together a bench and starting pitching depth this offseason. They go from good to sub-replacement level very quickly.
   37. Dr. Vaux Posted: November 15, 2010 at 10:45 AM (#3690031)
Dave Cameron says the Braves are the favorites and the Phillies are "in for some rough years."
   38. James Darnell's #1 Fan Posted: November 15, 2010 at 08:16 PM (#3690283)
Dan, can we get some ZiPs on Maybin as a Padre?

Thanks much!
   39. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 15, 2010 at 08:45 PM (#3690322)
Maybin goes down to a 242/319/379 (but up to a 93 OPS+ - it's the park).
   40. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 15, 2010 at 08:48 PM (#3690329)
Coghlan also played some 3B in the minors. If they trade Uggla, Coghlan could wind up back at 2B, which he played fairly extensively in the minors.

He's (Stanton) the new Mark Reynolds.


He's a better player than Reynolds - makes hard contact more consistently when he does connect. The Plantier comp isn't a bad one (although Plantier hit from the other side). He still reminds me a lot of Jason Stokes, but I think he's also a better player than that - Stanton has played CF in the minors and not embarrassed himself in so doing, and it would not be beyond the realm of possibility to see him play there a fair amount in 2011, assuming Uggla isn't moved in a trade for a CF.

-- MWE
   41. James Darnell's #1 Fan Posted: November 15, 2010 at 08:52 PM (#3690330)
Thanks again, Dan!
   42. Tom Nawrocki Posted: November 15, 2010 at 09:00 PM (#3690339)
He's a better player than Reynolds - makes hard contact more consistently when he does connect.


I made that comment off the cuff, but when I looked back, Stanton's projection is almost eerily similar to Reynolds' career numbers per 162 games. Of course, it's only a projection, rather than actual performance, and there's a big difference between doing that at age 21, as Stanton is projected to do, and doing it from age 23-26, as Reynolds has done.
   43. Ken015 Posted: November 28, 2010 at 07:41 PM (#3698306)
Well looks like Javy Vazquez is on board. That should help prevent them from making a Robertson type desperation move in 2011.
   44. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 29, 2010 at 10:27 PM (#3698917)
Nobody else is surprised/amused to see Gil McDougald and A-Rod as Hanley's top two comps?


Gil was my father's favorite player
could NOT hit in Yankee Stadium to save himself, .255/.333/.348 at home, .296/.379/.469 on the road
good defensively at SS, and 2B and 3B, Stengel used him as a super sub, got 500-600 PAs a year despite only rarely being the "regular" at a specific position

Bill James said that Stengel's platooning worked because Gil REALLY could play multiple positions at a high level at each (unlike say the Chone Figginses- who play 1 position well, another adequately, and can fake another if you squint real hard)- Bill James also claimed that Gil would have been a star- had he not had Yankee stadium as a home park, and played 150 games a year at one position (he was an elite defender, but recognition of that fact was obscured by his perpetual movement from one position to another)
   45. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: November 30, 2010 at 04:33 AM (#3699017)
i thought you posted in the wrong thread for a sec there, johnny.
   46. Ken015 Posted: December 02, 2010 at 12:33 PM (#3700673)
May we have a projection for Javy Vazquez please.
   47. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 13, 2011 at 04:25 AM (#3729238)
very minor point, but jose veras will have a seasonal age of 30, not 31, next year. (dob: oct.20.80)
   48. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: March 05, 2011 at 12:27 AM (#3763840)
A focused Mets organization could make keeping up with the NL East an even bigger task.


BAHAHAHAHAHAHA
   49. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: March 25, 2011 at 03:37 PM (#3778103)
Losing Maybin puts the Fish in the tough position of not having Infante/Coghlan at 3rd/2nd.

That bullpen better be great.

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