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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Friday, November 12, 2010
2011 ZiPS Projections - Florida Marlins
An 80-82 record has to be at least a mild disappointment coming off of an 87-win 2nd-place finish in 2009, but the Marlins do have a lot of things to be happy about going into 2011. Josh Johnson became a serious Cy Young candidate, Anibal Sanchez pitched well and for a whole season without his arm falling off, and Chris Volstad established himself as a reasonable back-of-the-rotation starter. As usual, a few careers were revived in the Marlin bullpen, Clay Hensley and Jose Veras this time around.
The Marlins have done extremely well on a shoestring budget, but the team needs quite a bit of luck on the injury front to compete in any given year because the lack of investment in the team really causes there to be depth issues. The front-line talent is high-quality, but the depth is thinner than Madonna’s creepy veiny arms. The projected rotation is good, but when bad things happen (which is a theme for pitchers), they’re a team that uses Nate Robertson in a division with a team picks up Roy Oswalt. A focused Mets organization could make keeping up with the NL East an even bigger task.
On offense, they’ll have to aggressively make moves with Gaby Sanchez or Logan Morrison. The team doesn’t have the wallet to compete for talent, so they can’t afford to spend too much time figuring out which surplus talent to hang on to. There’s also the question of what to do with Dan Uggla now that they crystal embedded in his hand has started to blink. In a refreshing change of pace, the Marlins may not be to blame for this star’s departure as Uggla seems to have taken a pretty tough line in negotiations, already turning down a 4-year, $48 million offer.
Next up: Arizona
Oracle on Twitter
Batting Projections
Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+
Hanley Ramirez R SS 27 .309 .388 .512 153 592 107 183 36 3 26 85 71 104 35 11 134
Logan Morrison L 1B 23 .284 .372 .452 144 538 82 153 38 8 12 73 73 99 5 5 116
Dan Uggla R 2B 31 .259 .351 .469 150 555 89 144 30 1 28 87 75 151 4 2 112
Mike Stanton R RF 21 .246 .327 .493 160 598 79 147 32 4 36 98 68 213 5 3 112
Chris Coghlan L LF 26 .286 .357 .414 130 507 81 145 31 5 8 53 51 92 18 6 102
Gaby Sanchez R 1B 27 .272 .340 .436 143 523 68 142 31 2 17 75 52 90 8 2 103
Cameron Maybin R CF 24 .254 .330 .402 140 508 83 129 23 8 12 57 53 145 16 5 92
Scott Cousins L CF 26 .256 .307 .408 135 468 64 120 24 7 11 52 34 123 15 6 86
Hector Luna R 3B 31 .256 .312 .404 116 394 51 101 18 2 12 50 29 82 5 3 87
John Raynor R LF 27 .254 .322 .366 100 355 53 90 16 3 6 29 32 108 18 6 81
John Baker R C 30 .247 .330 .371 77 251 32 62 14 1 5 29 29 59 0 0 84
Brian Barden R 3B 30 .272 .322 .383 106 313 39 85 16 2 5 31 21 70 2 4 85
Ronny Paulino R C 30 .258 .314 .379 90 298 30 77 16 1 6 37 25 56 1 1 81
Donnie Murphy R SS 28 .227 .282 .429 67 203 29 46 12 1 9 27 14 60 1 0 84
Osvaldo Martinez R SS 23 .264 .323 .349 160 598 92 158 30 6 3 57 47 84 12 8 77
Danny Richar L 2B 28 .262 .300 .376 112 412 48 108 22 2 7 40 22 76 7 5 77
Emilio Bonifacio B CF 26 .262 .314 .332 141 503 76 132 18 7 1 33 39 109 26 9 71
Vinny Rottino R LF 31 .248 .309 .341 119 431 53 107 21 2 5 49 37 69 11 3 71
Mike Lamb L 3B 35 .257 .303 .355 101 296 32 76 13 2 4 38 19 32 0 0 73
Bryan Petersen L LF 25 .247 .313 .355 131 453 58 112 17 4 8 41 41 107 10 8 76
Matt Dominguez R 3B 21 .231 .300 .372 160 592 65 137 37 2 14 80 53 136 0 2 76
Chad Tracy L 3B 31 .249 .308 .354 86 229 22 57 12 0 4 31 19 47 0 1 74
Wes Helms R 3B 35 .238 .300 .353 117 235 22 56 11 2 4 34 18 61 0 1 71
Travis Dawkins R SS 32 .235 .289 .354 93 336 34 79 20 1 6 30 23 114 4 3 68
Brett Carroll R RF 28 .213 .287 .365 107 301 40 64 15 2 9 33 23 86 3 3 70
Brad Davis R C 28 .217 .281 .358 95 313 31 68 18 1 8 35 27 89 2 2 67
Mark Saccomanno R 1B 31 .231 .271 .363 131 477 54 110 21 3 12 56 25 117 2 3 65
Mike Rivera R C 34 .214 .292 .316 58 187 15 40 10 0 3 22 18 55 2 2 60
Brett Hayes R C 27 .218 .261 .336 81 271 26 59 12 1 6 26 15 71 1 2 56
Chris Hatcher R C 26 .176 .244 .285 89 284 30 50 11 1 6 31 22 121 2 2 39
Defensive Projections
Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF
Hanley Ramirez FR/96
Logan Morrison FR/134
Dan Uggla FR/129
Mike Stanton VG/140 FR/140 VG/140
Chris Coghlan AV/162 AV/126 FR/98
Gaby Sanchez AV/131 PO/147
Cameron Maybin VG/141
Scott Cousins VG/114 AV/176 AV/116
Hector Luna VG/198 AV/109 VG/103 PO/109
John Raynor AV/140 FR/106 AV/140
John Baker FR
Brian Barden FR/126 PO/121 AV/117 PO/111 AV/98 FR/173 AV/108
Ronny Paulino AV
Donnie Murphy AV/129 AV/104 FR/108
Osvaldo Martinez AV/173
Danny Richar FR/154 AV/127 PO/118 FR/172
Emilio Bonifacio AV/170 AV/122 AV/123 FR/160 AV/132
Vinny Rottino FR FR/126 FR/128 FR/113 FR/105
Mike Lamb FR/114 PO/128 PO/116
Bryan Petersen AV/67 FR/160 AV/67
Matt Dominguez AV/103
Chad Tracy AV/87 FR/87 FR/87
Wes Helms AV/129 FR/93
Travis Dawkins AV/77 FR/98 PO/157 AV/111
Brett Carroll AV/113 AV/86 PO/141 AV/86
Brad Davis AV
Mark Saccomanno FR/147 PO/155
Mike Rivera AV AV/114
Brett Hayes AV
Chris Hatcher VG
Pitching Projections - Starters
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Josh Johnson R 27 2.87 12 4 28 28 179.0 157 57 11 47 173 147
Ricky Nolasco R 28 3.78 14 10 31 30 188.3 180 79 23 41 181 112
Anibal Sanchez R 27 3.83 11 8 26 26 148.0 142 63 11 61 121 110
Alex Sanabia R 22 4.11 8 6 26 23 131.3 131 60 12 48 82 103
Chris Volstad R 24 4.61 11 12 32 32 179.7 189 92 22 62 116 92
Tom Koehler R 25 5.24 7 9 25 24 122.0 139 71 13 64 81 81
Sean West L 25 5.44 6 9 21 21 102.7 114 62 13 60 78 78
Andrew Miller L 26 5.98 5 9 29 23 114.3 132 76 12 89 90 71
Brian Lawrence R 35 6.05 5 9 19 18 99.7 133 67 14 34 57 70
James Houser L 26 6.10 2 4 24 12 69.3 80 47 11 47 42 69
Omar Poveda R 23 6.15 3 6 14 14 74.7 86 51 12 46 42 69
Wes Whisler L 28 6.60 5 12 31 21 118.7 159 87 15 74 50 64
Jeff Allison R 26 7.27 4 13 28 24 112.7 157 91 22 56 47 58
Pitching Statistics - Relievers
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Brian Sanches R 32 3.47 3 2 57 0 59.7 51 23 6 25 56 122
Leo Nunez R 27 3.66 5 3 69 0 66.3 61 27 7 23 62 115
Clay Hensley R 31 3.66 4 3 64 0 66.3 60 27 5 31 58 115
Burke Badenhop R 28 3.88 4 3 49 0 62.7 60 27 5 24 48 109
Will Ohman L 33 3.89 1 1 60 0 39.3 34 17 4 20 41 109
Renyel Pinto L 28 4.03 2 1 50 0 44.7 39 20 4 28 43 105
Jose Veras R 31 4.02 4 3 63 0 65.0 57 29 7 37 67 105
Armando Benitez R 38 4.32 1 1 9 0 8.3 8 4 1 4 7 98
Jhan Marinez R 22 4.35 2 2 38 1 41.3 34 20 5 31 46 97
Dan Meyer L 29 4.67 3 3 63 0 61.7 60 32 7 36 49 90
Taylor Tankersley L 28 4.75 3 3 63 0 47.3 45 25 7 25 41 89
Garrett Parcell R 26 4.91 3 4 41 0 51.3 54 28 5 29 36 86
Jose Ceda R 24 4.92 3 3 35 5 53.0 46 29 7 45 54 86
Scott Strickland R 35 5.01 2 3 41 0 41.3 43 23 5 24 34 84
Steven Cishek R 25 5.02 4 5 47 0 61.0 63 34 5 42 44 84
Hunter Jones L 27 5.15 3 4 33 3 57.7 64 33 6 31 39 82
Sandy Rosario R 25 5.18 3 5 26 5 66.0 80 38 8 22 52 82
Tim Wood R 28 5.23 2 3 44 0 51.7 57 30 6 27 32 81
Tom Mastny R 30 5.30 4 5 34 7 69.7 76 41 9 36 53 80
Jorge Sosa R 33 5.30 4 6 41 6 71.3 83 42 9 31 51 80
Adalberto Mendez R 29 5.34 4 6 42 5 64.0 67 38 7 43 52 79
Jay Buente R 27 5.37 2 3 44 0 62.0 64 37 7 46 55 79
Ryan Tucker R 24 5.74 3 5 25 9 62.7 71 40 6 48 39 74
Chris Schroder R 32 5.82 1 2 29 0 34.0 38 22 4 25 24 73
Kris Harvey R 27 5.97 2 4 26 1 37.7 44 25 5 27 24 71
Brett Sinkbeil R 26 6.33 3 7 50 9 86.7 114 61 10 49 47 67
Extrapolated Career Statistics
Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+
Hanley Ramirez .300 .369 .490 2606 10249 1724 3072 593 69 407 1350 1047 1602 547 124
Dan Uggla .255 .339 .454 1783 6711 1035 1713 366 20 310 982 805 1636 39 106
Chris Coghlan .282 .353 .406 1185 4623 725 1304 276 38 73 463 464 811 120 99
Gaby Sanchez .266 .335 .424 1054 3804 474 1012 229 14 115 525 374 618 46 98
Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+
Ricky Nolasco 170 125 0 4.14 391 371 2304 2283 1059 309 526 2123 102
Chris Volstad 145 136 0 4.41 388 388 2232 2266 1094 282 767 1506 96
Josh Johnson 144 86 0 3.46 384 375 2389 2147 917 178 723 2053 125
Anibal Sanchez 129 101 0 3.93 318 318 1823 1775 796 153 777 1464 108
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3
Hanley Ramirez SS 92% 6% 2% 0% 0% Gil McDougald Alex Rodriguez Jim Fregosi
Logan Morrison 1B 9% 27% 24% 28% 12% James Loney Daryl Sconiers Elbie Fletcher
Dan Uggla 2B 53% 19% 13% 10% 6% Ron Santo Troy Glaus Dean Palmer
Mike Stanton RF 20% 23% 15% 16% 25% Phil Plantier Joe Citari Mark McGwire
Chris Coghlan LF 6% 19% 21% 26% 27% David DeJesus Greg Briley Terrence Long
Gaby Sanchez 1B 3% 16% 20% 35% 26% Hank Blalock Steve Cox Jerry Morales
Cameron Maybin CF 9% 13% 28% 30% 19% Curtis Granderson Xavier Paul Reggie Sanders
Scott Cousins CF 6% 8% 20% 31% 35% Corey Patterson Xavier Paul John Skurla
Hector Luna 3B 1% 5% 10% 23% 61% Jesus Alfaro Chuck Jackson Steve Sisco
John Raynor LF 1% 2% 4% 13% 80% Reggie Williams Larry Bigbie Jerome Walton
John Baker C 3% 12% 20% 33% 33% Chad Moeller Mike Fitzgerald Dwight Lowry
Brian Barden 3B 1% 3% 6% 17% 73% Aaron Ledesma Ron Oester Jose Leon
Ronny Paulino C 2% 11% 18% 32% 38% Ed Ott Yorvit Torrealba Jason Hill
Donnie Murphy SS 6% 12% 26% 29% 26% Brandon Larson Mendy Lopez George Arias
Osvaldo Martinez SS 1% 5% 17% 32% 46% Scott Fletcher Frankie Gustine Chin Hu
Danny Richar 2B 2% 2% 5% 14% 76% Tim Krauss Garth Iorg Steve Lyons
Emilio Bonifacio CF 0% 1% 5% 18% 75% Cecil Espy Randy Winn Alex Sanchez
Vinny Rottino LF 0% 0% 1% 3% 95% Marvin Thompson Ryan Fleming Rick Manning
Mike Lamb 3B 1% 1% 2% 8% 88% Mark Christman Edgar Caceres Juan Castro
Bryan Petersen LF 0% 1% 1% 4% 94% Kevin Koslofski Pedro Swann Vernon Thomas
Matt Dominguez 3B 1% 2% 5% 12% 80% Juan Espinal Terry Jorgensen Brett Bonvechio
Chad Tracy 3B 1% 1% 4% 11% 84% Jason Wood Chris Saunders Josh Klimek
Wes Helms 3B 1% 1% 2% 5% 91% Jeff Branson Jason Wood Dave McKay
Travis Dawkins SS 1% 1% 5% 14% 79% Pete Mackanin Steve Scarsone Trace Coquillette
Brett Carroll RF 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% Mike Beams James Clifford Ryan Goleski
Brad Davis C 0% 1% 4% 15% 80% Jeff Ontiveros Bill Hayes Kevin Cash
Mark Saccomanno 1B 0% 0% 0% 1% 98% Tommy Davis Matt Padgett Lou List
Mike Rivera C 0% 2% 3% 9% 86% George Mitterwald Chad Moeller Keith McDonald
Brett Hayes C 0% 1% 1% 4% 94% Joe Cipolloni Tommy Duenas Dane Sardinha
Chris Hatcher C 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% Jerrey Thurston Francisco Morales Steve Lomasney
Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3
Josh Johnson SP 97% 3% 0% Roy Oswalt Bert Blyleven Roy Halladay
Brian Sanches RP 47% 44% 10% Dave Tobik Mike Trombley Guillermo Mota
Leo Nunez RP 34% 52% 13% Steve Reed Mike Connolly Rich Bordi
Clay Hensley RP 34% 53% 13% Cory Bailey Gregg Olson Ryan Dempster
Ricky Nolasco SP 58% 39% 3% Scott Sanderson Dennis Eckersley Frank Castillo
Anibal Sanchez SP 55% 41% 4% Walt Terrell Tommy Boggs Kevin Brown
Burke Badenhop RP 28% 50% 22% Ray Krawczyk Jose Jimenez Mike Buddie
Will Ohman RP 32% 45% 23% Mike Remlinger Kevin Tolar Joe Price
Jose Veras RP 20% 53% 26% Dwayne Henry Colter Bean Richie Lewis
Alex Sanabia SP 40% 48% 12% John Mitchell Joey Hamilton Jimmy Jones
Armando Benitez RP 36% 20% 45% Russ Springer Matt Whiteside Mike Fetters
Jhan Marinez RP 15% 40% 45% Eric Plunk Eric Cammack Armando Benitez
Chris Volstad SP 9% 62% 29% Brian Denman Will Cunnane Jason Dickson
Dan Meyer RP 6% 36% 58% Erick Burke Ron Mahay Brian Shackelford
Taylor Tankersley RP 6% 36% 58% Ron Mahay Todd Genke Joe Horgan
Garrett Parcell RP 5% 31% 64% Dave Smith Alan Mills Mike Timlin
Jose Ceda RP 3% 30% 67% Matt Anderson Joe Borowski Lariel Gonzalez
Scott Strickland RP 7% 25% 68% Jim Brower Jim Dougherty Ernie Camacho
Steven Cishek RP 3% 26% 71% Heathcliff Slocumb Marc Pisciotta Julio DePaula
Hunter Jones RP 2% 20% 78% Ken Vining Tim Hamulack Philip Barzilla
Sandy Rosario RP 1% 21% 78% Matt Schwager Joe Roa Jose Lima
Tim Wood RP 2% 20% 78% Mike Mills Stan Kyles Andy Mitchell
Tom Koehler SP 2% 31% 67% Matt Achilles Dave Hooten Jason Phillips
Tom Mastny RP 1% 17% 82% Jamie Brewington Chuck Smith Mark Small
Jorge Sosa RP 2% 17% 81% Danny Graves Shawn Camp Chuck Crim
Adalberto Mendez RP 1% 14% 85% Ryan Henderson Marcus Gwyn Victor Moreno
Jay Buente RP 1% 13% 86% Pete Sikaras Rusty Ford Mike Schultz
Sean West SP 1% 20% 79% Phil Dumatrait Alex Graman Mike Curtis
Ryan Tucker SP 0% 8% 91% Tim Byron Ricky Steik Eric Parent
Chris Schroder RP 2% 11% 88% Jim Dedrick Jason Grimsley Jim Dougherty
Kris Harvey RP 1% 7% 92% Al Osuna Julien Tucker Rick Greene
Andrew Miller SP 0% 5% 95% Mike Wodnicki Eric Hillman Ken Vining
Brian Lawrence SP 0% 7% 93% Brian Moehler Tim Kester Charles Nagy
James Houser SP 0% 8% 92% Matt White Jason Flach Rafael Roque
Omar Poveda SP 0% 5% 95% Keith Bucktrot Jonah Bayliss Jared Jensen
Brett Sinkbeil RP 0% 1% 99% Mike Flanagan Kevin Legault Tom Edens
Wes Whisler SP 0% 0% 100% Mike Prochaska Jeff Musselman Benj Sampson
Jeff Allison SP 0% 0% 100% Kyle Middleton Greg Biercevicz Edward Valdez
Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB
Hanley Ramirez 62% 64% 58% 14% 3% 31% 36% 54%
Logan Morrison 26% 44% 10% 23% 33% 0% 7% 0%
Dan Uggla 6% 19% 26% 3% 0% 42% 10% 0%
Mike Stanton 2% 6% 43% 8% 7% 72% 11% 0%
Chris Coghlan 28% 24% 2% 3% 7% 1% 1% 6%
Gaby Sanchez 11% 9% 6% 4% 0% 2% 1% 2%
Cameron Maybin 3% 6% 1% 0% 33% 0% 0% 2%
Scott Cousins 4% 1% 3% 0% 19% 0% 0% 2%
Hector Luna 5% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
John Raynor 4% 3% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 3%
John Baker 5% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Brian Barden 16% 4% 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0%
Ronny Paulino 7% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Donnie Murphy 1% 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Osvaldo Martinez 5% 2% 0% 6% 20% 0% 0% 2%
Danny Richar 8% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Emilio Bonifacio 5% 1% 0% 0% 25% 0% 0% 28%
Vinny Rottino 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Mike Lamb 7% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bryan Petersen 1% 1% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 1%
Matt Dominguez 0% 1% 2% 29% 2% 4% 0% 0%
Chad Tracy 5% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Wes Helms 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Travis Dawkins 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Brett Carroll 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Brad Davis 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mark Saccomanno 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Mike Rivera 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Brett Hayes 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chris Hatcher 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1
Josh Johnson 77% 99% 75% 23% 98%
Brian Sanches 38% 87% 66% 1% 72%
Leo Nunez 34% 82% 64% 4% 61%
Clay Hensley 34% 82% 43% 0% 84%
Ricky Nolasco 19% 84% 74% 59% 41%
Anibal Sanchez 17% 77% 22% 0% 90%
Burke Badenhop 22% 72% 12% 2% 87%
Will Ohman 32% 70% 81% 1% 65%
Jose Veras 15% 61% 86% 0% 58%
Alex Sanabia 11% 65% 2% 3% 83%
Armando Benitez 36% 36% 44% 24% 63%
Jhan Marinez 15% 46% 90% 0% 62%
Chris Volstad 1% 28% 0% 1% 39%
Dan Meyer 4% 35% 18% 0% 59%
Taylor Tankersley 6% 34% 36% 0% 34%
Garrett Parcell 3% 29% 4% 0% 80%
Jose Ceda 3% 26% 80% 0% 49%
Scott Strickland 7% 25% 27% 0% 61%
Steven Cishek 3% 18% 8% 0% 85%
Hunter Jones 2% 17% 3% 0% 59%
Sandy Rosario 1% 17% 17% 9% 49%
Tim Wood 1% 17% 1% 0% 66%
Tom Koehler 0% 8% 0% 0% 68%
Tom Mastny 1% 11% 11% 0% 48%
Jorge Sosa 2% 12% 6% 1% 49%
Adalberto Mendez 1% 11% 20% 0% 55%
Jay Buente 0% 10% 45% 0% 54%
Sean West 0% 5% 6% 0% 37%
Ryan Tucker 0% 4% 0% 0% 77%
Chris Schroder 2% 12% 12% 0% 59%
Kris Harvey 0% 5% 2% 0% 51%
Andrew Miller 0% 1% 12% 0% 69%
Brian Lawrence 0% 2% 0% 5% 28%
James Houser 0% 1% 0% 0% 26%
Omar Poveda 0% 1% 0% 0% 16%
Brett Sinkbeil 0% 0% 0% 0% 57%
Wes Whisler 0% 0% 0% 0% 38%
Jeff Allison 0% 0% 0% 0% 4%
All figures in % based on projection playing time
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 12, 2010 at 08:06 AM | 49 comment(s)
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1. Walt Davis Posted: November 12, 2010 at 10:25 AM (#3688676)The starting 5 is solid enough but that's one thin list of starters after that.
Sounds about right.
In this case, it sounds exactly right. Second basemen are supposed to be high average, low power guys who can run. Third basemen are low average power hitters who don't run.
Or a WAG?
36 homers from Mike Stanton! Wow. Phil Plantier comp is interesting.
If I remember correctly, this would be a comparison to Phil Plantier in his pre-######-up-back period, when he looked like he was going to be an absolute offensive beast.
Comps are based on recent history, closest years weighed more heavily.
Hey, the Phillies used Nate Robertson too.
Yeah, the similarity list is bizarre - as I noted elsewhere, it would be easier if baseball history had more players. Ramirez is special enough that ZiPS has Amos Otis really high on his comp list. ZiPS does use more generic aging factors as the comps get worse.
True, but they were smart enough to not use him!
How bout Mike Stanton's comps - Phil Plantier, Joe Citari, and Mark McGwire. I get they are similar up to this point, but those are three wildly different career paths.
LF Coghlan*
SS Ramirez
1B Morrison*
2B Uggla
RF Stanton
CF Maybin
3B Luna
C Baker
C Paulino
SS/2B Murphy
CF/UT Bonifacio**
1B/3B Sanchez
OF Cousins*
SP Johnson
SP Sanchez
SP Nolasco
SP Volstad
SP Sanabia
(SP West*)
CL Nunez
RP Sanches
RP Hensley
RP Badenhop
RP Pinto*
RP Meyer*
RP Veras
I didn't do the legwork on the bullpen's contract status, so I may be off on some of those.\
Morrison is the real deal, so while having Sanchez as a 1B/3B backup and pinch hitter is nice, I imagine the Marlins would be able to get an attractive offer for the quintessential league-average first baseman.
If they flip Uggla, Coghlan would slide into second and maybe you'd have LF Morrison, where he spent 2010, and 1B Sanchez. I see that Coghlan is ZiPS rated at 3B but the Fish had every reason to play him there in 2010 if he was the least bit capable and they did not. That leads me to think he can't stick there even in a reserve capacity in the Majors.
Of course, they might bump 3B Luna/Tracy/scrap heap and stick Sanchez there. They put up with 3B Jorge Cantu for a few seasons; Sanchez is going to give you about the same production defensively.
They say they want a catcher given Baker's injury and Paulino's fatness/steroids. So we'll see what happens there.
Emilio Bonifacio will probably get 200 more ABs than is at all sensible to give him.
It'll be 85 wins of talent with a big spread hinging on starting pitching health. And obviously Hanley can't be hurt.
Let's play the Marlins Best Case Scenario Lineup!
LF David DeJesus
SS Alex Rodriguez
1B Logan Morrison
2B Ron Santo
RF Mark McGwire
CF Curtis Granderson
3B Gaby Sanchez
C John Baker
Woohoo.
Gaby Sanchez's best comp is....Gaby Sanchez? Dude, you just blew my mind.
Nobody's going to give a poor defensive 2B that many PA at that offensive level, unless his name is Biggio (or, like, you know, Jeter). Something is screwy with the formula there.
Anyone a bit disappointed by Hanley? At a stage in his career when he's nearing his prime years, you'd think he would have built on his excellent 23-25 years and really shot through the roof in '10, doing oh I don't know .350/.430/.600 with 40 homers. Instead every major offensive category tanked. Yeah, I could be accused of doing what Mickey Mantle's critics did, but wouldn't everyone love to see Hanley trump A-Rod? Like Uggla I'll also note that Hanley projects to be much worse from here on out than he has been, which given his age doesn't pass the smell test.
FWIW, Baker is also a known PED guy, albeit from a fairly long time ago.
Oh there's always something screwy with career projections. Almost all of the projections are of careers that are (on average) way too long for all sorts of reasons. C'mon, it's projecting another 1900 games for Hanley and to finish tied for 36th all-time in games played. As an "average" outcome. That's clearly all possible if he stays healthy and he doesn't decline much as a hitter and/or he can remain at SS until he's 38.
Especially in terms of playing time and somewhat in terms of performance, I tend to think of these as best-case (or at least better-case) scenarios.
The pitchers seem to be a bit more realistic in terms of IP although it's unlikely that Volstad makes it to 2200 innings with a 96 ERA+. Suppan had an excellent 8-year run averaging over 200 IP a year with an ERA+ of 106 and remained healthy ages 32-35 and even he has only made it to 2500 innings. Projecting 10+ more healthy years for any pitcher seems dicey ... projecting that plus league-average or better performance for someone like Volstad (5.6 K/9, 1.7 K/BB) seems extra double dicey.
Eh. The Marlins earned the hard-line stance over years of ostensible penury. And I suspect Uggla thinks he'll have a better chance of winning with a team that will actually spend at the deadline.
Not to mention 213 strikeouts, and a .246 average. He's the new Mark Reynolds.
Those sure are strange numbers to see from a 21-year-old.
Of course, it's hard to blame ZiPs for any inaccuracies on Stanton, given the small number of players who have flashed his sort of power and K-rate at such a young age. There just can't be many comparables at all.
I've heard the same thing. Or I have at least heard they were planning to move Coghlan back to 3B (which he played in college I believe) so the Morrison in LF and Sanchez at 1B part also makes sense.
IF the Marlins can stay incredibly healthy and/or do a good job putting together a bench and starting pitching depth this offseason. They go from good to sub-replacement level very quickly.
Thanks much!
He's a better player than Reynolds - makes hard contact more consistently when he does connect. The Plantier comp isn't a bad one (although Plantier hit from the other side). He still reminds me a lot of Jason Stokes, but I think he's also a better player than that - Stanton has played CF in the minors and not embarrassed himself in so doing, and it would not be beyond the realm of possibility to see him play there a fair amount in 2011, assuming Uggla isn't moved in a trade for a CF.
-- MWE
I made that comment off the cuff, but when I looked back, Stanton's projection is almost eerily similar to Reynolds' career numbers per 162 games. Of course, it's only a projection, rather than actual performance, and there's a big difference between doing that at age 21, as Stanton is projected to do, and doing it from age 23-26, as Reynolds has done.
Gil was my father's favorite player
could NOT hit in Yankee Stadium to save himself, .255/.333/.348 at home, .296/.379/.469 on the road
good defensively at SS, and 2B and 3B, Stengel used him as a super sub, got 500-600 PAs a year despite only rarely being the "regular" at a specific position
Bill James said that Stengel's platooning worked because Gil REALLY could play multiple positions at a high level at each (unlike say the Chone Figginses- who play 1 position well, another adequately, and can fake another if you squint real hard)- Bill James also claimed that Gil would have been a star- had he not had Yankee stadium as a home park, and played 150 games a year at one position (he was an elite defender, but recognition of that fact was obscured by his perpetual movement from one position to another)
BAHAHAHAHAHAHA
That bullpen better be great.
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