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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, December 16, 2010

2011 ZiPS Projections - Houston Astros

The good news first.  After all, if I don’t start out on a positive note with the projections below, neither Lisa Gray nor the guys at the Crawfish Boxes will ever speak to me again as these projections are grim, grim, grim.

OK, maybe that’s not really good news.  But the good thing is that despite the ugly projections, most of the team’s best prospects are at very low levels and not practically projectable for 2011 at this point.  DeShields, Villar, Bushue, Ovando, Foltyniewicz, are all likely Top 10ers and even Jiovanni Mier, after an awful season, isn’t washed-out yet (though his star has certainly declined).  It’s enough to make a previously horrible farm system a good deal better.  Not good and certainly in the bottom third in baseball, but at least it’s going in the right direction.

2011, however, will be ugly in Houston.  Just some of the names that are high on the list should be enough to tell you how the season’s likely to go - J.D. Martinez is a decent prospect and Jason Bourgeois and Andrew Locke have (very) limited uses in the majors, but they are way too high in the rankings for any organization that can seriously be called a divisional contender.

And as ugly as it will be, Astros fans should generally be happy about a bad season.  Houston is kind of stuck in the same death spiral that the Orioles were in during the first half of the aughts - an unimaginative GM and frequently winning just enough that the team can convince themselves that they are only a few players and some good luck from competing.  The Astros, like the Orioles before them, are not and like the Orioles, Houston may have to have a true bottoming out to really have the lesson hit home.  While the team did trade Oswalt and Berkman, I’m still not convinced the organization truly thinks a foundation-to-roof total makeover is what is necessary.  The Astros 2010 season was the lucky year - they had 20 Oswalt starts and Berkman still better than anyone is projected for 2011 and exceeded their pythagorean wins by 8.

Anyway, I wish the Astros fans good fortune, because the rebuilding process of a team that put it off too long is long and painful, the equivalent of driving your car with the oil light on and just ignoring it until it eventually grinds to a halt.  And as I fully expect Jeff Bagwell to be screwed by the BBWAA, fans may not even have that to look forward to.

Next up:  Cardinals (~12/19)

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age    BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Hunter Pence      R    RF  28   .277 .326 .463 156 603  89 167  30   5  24  90  44 113  14   9  111
Carlos Lee        R    LF  35   .275 .319 .459 141 542  67 149  29   1  23  96  35  50   4   3  108
Brett Wallace     L    1B  24   .261 .324 .414 141 532  64 139  26   2  17  59  34 129   1   1   98
Chris Johnson     R    3B  26   .269 .303 .429 138 510  63 137  28   3  16  73  24 124   3   0   96
Jeff Keppinger    R    2B  31   .281 .335 .384 129 463  55 130  26   2   6  50  38  32   3   2   95
J.D. Martinez     R    RF  23   .272 .323 .395 149 585  87 159  33   3  11  76  37 115   4   1   93
Michael Bourn     L    CF  28   .259 .328 .348 145 506  81 131  22   7   3  34  51 110  48  10   83
Jason Bourgeois   R    CF  29   .274 .318 .368 137 457  61 125  18   5   5  37  27  56  27   9   85
Jason Michaels    R    LF  35   .246 .310 .414 102 191  24  47  12   1   6  29  15  39   1   1   94
Matt Downs        R    2B  27   .255 .309 .393 117 428  61 109  25   2  10  53  29  73   9   6   89
Andrew Locke      R    RF  28   .253 .300 .397 128 486  61 123  28   3  12  67  33 107   4   2   87
Brian Bogusevic   L    LF  27   .240 .310 .354 125 446  66 107  21   3   8  47  44 118  15   2   80
Koby Clemens      R    1B  24   .224 .304 .391 139 514  65 115  27   4  17  79  55 183   5   3   87
Jason Castro      L    C   24   .246 .324 .351 141 496  69 122  24   2   8  53  55 103   2   1   83
Clint Barmes      R    2B  32   .245 .299 .385 133 441  48 108  23   3  11  52  28  87   8   5   84
J.R. Towles       R    C   27   .221 .306 .378  59 172  21  38  10   1   5  34  16  44   2   1   84
Chris Shelton     R    1B  31   .238 .305 .374 101 369  41  88  18   1  10  50  35 104   0   1   83
Jimmy Paredes     B    2B  22   .257 .281 .363 125 518  62 133  25   6   6  39  18 108  36  14   73
Albert Cartwright R    2B  23   .243 .302 .372 136 522  79 127  25   9   8  47  38 148  24  16   81
Cory Sullivan     L    LF  31   .248 .303 .338 101 266  32  66  11   2   3  25  21  50   5   2   74
Angel Sanchez     R    SS  27   .258 .306 .331 129 481  56 124  21   4   2  45  31  80   4   3   72
German Duran      R    2B  26   .244 .287 .349  91 295  31  72  12   2   5  33  16  55   3   2   71
Collin DeLome     L    LF  25   .213 .264 .391 122 455  60  97  17   8  16  58  24 166  10   5   75
Jonathan Gaston   L    RF  24   .213 .283 .362 135 494  65 105  19   8  13  62  44 166   9   5   73
Wladimir Sutil    R    SS  26   .257 .308 .298 132 486  68 125  17   0   1  34  31  62  21   9   65
Matt Kata         B    3B  33   .240 .279 .332 116 383  44  92  17   3   4  35  16  53   6   1   65
Jay Austin        L    CF  20   .238 .284 .350 155 631  80 150  28  11   7  58  40 171  42  25   71
Oswaldo Navarro   R    SS  26   .237 .304 .314 115 388  46  92  19   1   3  35  32  93   4   3   68
Tommy Manzella    R    SS  28   .241 .282 .337 115 419  42 101  19   3   5  42  23  96   4   5   67
Anderson HernandezB    2B  28   .241 .289 .317 127 419  45 101  17   3   3  33  29  73   8   5   64
Humberto Quintero R    C   31   .240 .275 .337  83 246  18  59  10   1   4  22   8  51   0   1   65
Yordany Ramirez   R    CF  26   .234 .257 .346 118 393  40  92  18   1   8  49  10  69  12   6   61
Edwin Maysonet    R    SS  29   .232 .286 .308 101 328  34  76  14   1   3  31  24  74   3   2   61
T. J. Steele      R    CF  24   .225 .256 .324  75 284  31  64  11   4   3  27  10  92   8   6   56
Brian Esposito    R    C   32   .211 .237 .284  69 232  17  49   6   1   3  23   5  55   1   0   40

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Hunter Pence                                                                  AV/81
Carlos Lee                                                    PO/94
Brett Wallace                AV/119          FR/117
Jeff Keppinger                        AV/72  FR/101   PO/83
J.D. Martinez                                                AV/138          AV/178
Michael Bourn                                                        VG/103
Jason Bourgeois                      PO/119                  VG/117  FR/221  AV/117
Jason Michaels                                               AV/106   PO/98  AV/106
Matt Downs                           AV/133  FR/134  FR/112  AV/111          AV/111
Andrew Locke                 AV/158                          AV/148          AV/148
Brian Bogusevic              FR/123                           AV/81   FR/45   AV/81
Koby Clemens             FR  FR/131                          FR/106
Jason Castro             VG
Clint Barmes                         VG/111  VG/111   AV/93
J.R. Towles              AV
Chris Shelton                AV/124          FR/149
Jimmy Paredes                        AV/168  AV/168  PO/191
Albert Cartwright                    AV/235
Cory Sullivan                                                 AV/94   FR/83   AV/94
Angel Sanchez                        VG/111          AV/101
German Duran                         AV/104  AV/125  FR/116  AV/114
Collin DeLome                                                VG/177  FR/119  AV/113
Jonathan Gaston                                              AV/128  FR/112  AV/128
Wladimir Sutil                       VG/131  VG/115  VG/138  AV/114
Matt Kata                    AV/110  FR/131  AV/108          AV/141  PO/114   AV/92
Jay Austin                                                           AV/166
Oswaldo Navarro                      AV/119  AV/109  AV/119
Tommy Manzella                                        AV/77
Anderson Hernandez                   VG/114  VG/118  FR/117
Humberto Quintero        VG
Yordany Ramirez                                              VG/106  VG/134  VG/106
Edwin Maysonet                       VG/124  VG/108   FR/91  AV/114
T. J. Steele                                                  VG/83   VG/83   VG/83
Brian Esposito           AV

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Wandy Rodriguez   L     32    3.70    12    9   30   30  180.0  170   74   17   60  163  109
Brett Myers       R     30    3.98    11    9   29   29  183.3  179   81   22   58  151  101
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
J.A. Happ         L     28    4.29     7    7   29   24  138.3  135   66   18   58  110   94
Nelson Figueroa   R     37    4.40     7    8   31   17  124.7  129   61   15   45   97   92
Bud Norris        R     26    4.41     9   10   27   27  149.0  145   73   16   72  144   91
Jordan Lyles      R     20    4.83     8   11   28   27  151.0  169   81   15   57  111   84
Brian Moehler     R     39    5.12     4    6   24   17   95.0  108   54   11   36   53   79
Aneury Rodriguez  R     23    5.40     6   10   29   23  123.3  136   74   18   54   81   75
Shane Loux        R     31    5.50     5   10   24   17  106.3  133   65   14   32   47   73
Ryan Rowland-SmithL     28    5.53     5   10   34   23  141.7  165   87   25   47   78   73
Josh Banks        R     28    5.71     6   12   30   25  153.0  184   97   25   48   72   71
Lance Pendleton   R     27    5.89     6   12   29   26  133.0  158   87   18   73   81   68
Gustavo Chacin    L     30    5.93     3    6   30   11   71.3   87   47   11   33   40   68
Sergio Perez      R     26    6.27     4   10   21   18   94.7  121   66   12   52   44   64
Cesar Carrillo    R     27    6.53     4   12   25   24  124.0  156   90   22   60   60   62

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Brandon Lyon      R     31    3.75     6    5   70    0   72.0   68   30    6   27   55  108
Wilton Lopez      R     27    3.96     4    3   70    0   72.7   78   32    7   14   49  102
Mark Melancon     R     26    3.98     2    2   36    0   52.0   49   23    6   19   44  101
Alberto Arias     R     27    4.12     3    3   35    3   54.7   56   25    4   23   40   98
Samuel Gervacio   R     26    4.30     2    2   40    0   46.0   44   22    6   23   49   94
Matt Lindstrom    R     31    4.31     3    3   61    1   56.3   58   27    6   22   45   93
Jeff Fulchino     R     31    4.32     3    3   51    1   66.7   67   32    7   28   56   93
Tim Byrdak        L     37    4.37     1    1   63    0   47.3   44   23    6   25   41   92
Willie Eyre       R     32    4.53     2    3   43    1   59.7   63   30    5   26   39   89
Enerio Del RosarioR     25    4.60     4    4   58    0   74.3   81   38    8   23   40   88
Fernando Abad     L     25    4.74     4    5   41    3   74.0   81   39   11   18   56   85
Chris Sampson     R     33    4.76     3    3   50    3   64.3   73   34    7   19   39   85
Brad Thompson     R     29    4.89     3    4   25    5   57.0   64   31    7   15   30   82
Roy Corcoran      R     31    4.96     3    5   47    2   65.3   72   36    6   32   37   81
Jorge De Leon     R     23    5.00     1    2   24    0   27.0   29   15    2   16   18   81
Ross Wolf         R     28    5.18     2    2   30    0   40.0   43   23    4   20   27   78
Jose Trinidad     L     26    5.20     3    5   45    0   79.7   91   46    8   36   42   78
Wesley Wright     L     26    5.22     3    6   49    9   81.0   85   47   12   43   65   77
Brad Thompson     R     29    5.25     3    6   34    7   73.7   89   43    9   18   35   77
David Carpenter   R     25    5.28     4    6   57    0   59.7   65   35    7   36   44   76
Henry Villar      R     24    5.31     4    6   43    8   95.0  105   56   13   46   65   76
Matt Nevarez      R     24    5.45     2    3   40    0   38.0   36   23    4   39   36   74
Gary Majewski     R     31    5.67     2    4   49    0   60.3   73   38    8   24   36   71
Casey Daigle      R     30    5.93     2    5   48    0   57.7   68   38    9   29   40   68
T.J. Burton       R     27    6.25     2    4   31    0   40.3   51   28    7   19   20   65
Arcenio Leon      R     24    6.33     2    5   45    2   69.7   81   49    8   61   48   64

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Carlos Lee          .282  .331  .481  2269  8682  1213  2449   495    18   400  1491   638  1032   132   111
Hunter Pence        .275  .324  .455  1726  6682   921  1838   340    50   254   935   481  1171   139   107
Brett Wallace       .255  .320  .406  1384  5150   606  1313   260    18   161   561   355  1204    10    95
Chris Johnson       .266  .300  .427  1248  4601   547  1224   254    34   140   645   216  1039    29    95
Michael Bourn       .259  .326  .345  1245  4147   643  1073   170    54    27   267   406   849   346    82
Clint Barmes        .249  .298  .393  1053  3581   429   892   196    22    92   433   204   630    61    77

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Brett Myers        148  130   21    4.20  439  386     2479 2480 1158  334  830 2022     99
Wandy Rodriguez    133  120    0    4.10  354  346     2039 2009  929  224  717 1748    101

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Hunter Pence      RF    10%  26%  22%  21%  20%       Glenn Braggs          Al Cowens      Rondell White
Carlos Lee        LF     9%  21%  20%  24%  26%          Del Ennis       Frank Thomas     Keith Moreland
Brett Wallace     1B     1%   8%  13%  32%  45%          Adam Lind        Daryle Ward       Scott Cooper
Chris Johnson     3B     5%  16%  24%  27%  28%       Brook Jacoby        Clete Boyer      Jeff Hamilton
Jeff Keppinger    2B    12%  14%  19%  27%  28%         Rich Dauer    Edgardo Alfonzo         Todd Haney
J.D. Martinez     RF     2%   8%  13%  24%  54%       Jose Guillen       Delmon Young        Victor Mata
Michael Bourn     CF    12%  16%  28%  27%  17%        Omar Moreno     Kevin Rhomberg        Chris Duffy
Jason Bourgeois   CF     6%   9%  22%  31%  32%     Doug Glanville     Brandon Watson       Mike Spidale
Jason Michaels    LF     2%   7%  10%  20%  61%         Mark Smith    Mike Macfarlane   Darrell Whitmore
Matt Downs        2B     7%   8%  14%  26%  45%        Kelly Heath   Brandon Phillips     Nelson Johnson
Andrew Locke      RF     0%   3%   6%  17%  74%          Rod Allen         Mike Vento       Scott Krause
Brian Bogusevic   LF     1%   3%   5%  13%  79%         Jason Maas     Andy Tomberlin      Dave Brundage
Koby Clemens      1B     0%   3%   5%  19%  73% Inocencio Guerrero      Alan Cockrell     Brian Rosinski
Jason Castro      C      3%  10%  19%  36%  32%Eric Christopherson         Koyie Hill    Mike Fitzgerald
Clint Barmes      2B     4%   5%   9%  20%  62%          Mike Bell        Andy Sheets   Webster Garrison
J.R. Towles       C      7%  15%  20%  30%  28%     Bill Dobrolsky      Blake Barthol          Tom Nieto
Chris Shelton     1B     0%   0%   2%  11%  87%     Chris Saunders    Derek Nicholson    Chris Pritchett
Jimmy Paredes     2B     2%   4%   9%  16%  69%     Shawon Dunston      Carlos Garcia         Tony Abreu
Albert Cartwright 2B     4%   3%   6%  15%  72%     Mariano Duncan         Mike Young        Henry Mateo
Cory Sullivan     LF     0%   0%   1%   3%  95%       Ryan Fleming        Joe Simpson       Nick Alvarez
Angel Sanchez     SS     1%   3%  11%  27%  59%        Ed Brinkman        Gus Polidor       Ronny Cedeno
German Duran      2B     3%   2%   3%   7%  85%         Rob Mummau        Pedro Lopez      Zach Borowiak
Collin DeLome     LF     0%   1%   2%   6%  90%    Chris Dickerson Reggie Abercrombie        Brad Snyder
Jonathan Gaston   RF     1%   2%   2%   5%  90%     Fletcher Bates        Brad Snyder        Gary Varsho
Wladimir Sutil    SS     0%   1%   5%  17%  77%     Rafael Santana    Jerry Dybzinski       Felix Fermin
Matt Kata         3B     0%   1%   1%   5%  93%    Alfredo Griffin        Neifi Perez     Chris Petersen
Jay Austin        CF     0%   1%   4%  12%  82%       Daryl Boston    Herm Winningham   Elijah Bonaparte
Oswaldo Navarro   SS     0%   1%   6%  20%  73%          Bert Pena     John Hotchkiss          Tom Hayes
Tommy Manzella    SS     0%   1%   4%  11%  84%   Johnnie LeMaster        Mendy Lopez       Jason Bowers
Anderson Hernandez2B     0%   0%   1%   4%  94%  Gary Miller-Jones         Doug Baker        Casey Smith
Humberto Quintero C      1%   2%   3%  12%  82%     Charlie Greene      Mike DiFelice         Jeff Smith
Yordany Ramirez   CF     0%   0%   1%   3%  95%         John Myrow   Charlie Fermaint         Jamie Gann
Edwin Maysonet    SS     0%   1%   3%   8%  88%     Chris Petersen         Gary Green        Keith Johns
T. J. Steele      CF     0%   0%   0%   2%  98%       Angel Valdez      Hector Guzman       Ramon Cedeno
Brian Esposito    C      0%   0%   0%   0% 100%     Charlie Greene       Chad Moeller        Chris Ashby

Player            PO     TOP   MID   BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Wandy Rodriguez   SP     51%   44%    6%        Bruce Hurst      Teddy Higuera      Andy Pettitte
Brandon Lyon      RP     21%   54%   25%          Ben Weber         Jim Brower          Sean Lowe
Wilton Lopez      RP     19%   46%   35%         Don Gordon           Jeff Tam       John Doherty
Brett Myers       SP     28%   59%   13%      Freddy Garcia    Chris Carpenter        Matt Morris
Mark Melancon     RP     16%   46%   37%    Steve Ontiveros        Brad Clontz     Cris Carpenter
Alberto Arias     RP     13%   42%   44%         Tom Mastny           Mark Lee       Jerry Dipoto
J.A. Happ         SP     14%   55%   32%       Kent Mercker      Trevor Wilson         John Tudor
Samuel Gervacio   RP     20%   48%   32%       Brian Bruney       Ray Krawczyk          Ben Hayes
Matt Lindstrom    RP     10%   38%   53%          Sean Lowe  Antonio Alfonseca     Scott Atchison
Jeff Fulchino     RP      6%   43%   51%       Bryce Florie      Bill Campbell      Floyd Chiffer
Tim Byrdak        RP     10%   40%   49%        Ron Villone          Ron Mahay        John Hiller
Nelson Figueroa   SP     18%   44%   38%        Steve Renko     Miguel Batista        Pete Walker
Bud Norris        SP     12%   57%   31%      Ryan Dempster     Daniel Cabrera      Mike Bielecki
Willie Eyre       RP      8%   35%   57%     Kevin Gryboski     Tom Timmermann       Milo Candini
Enerio Del RosarioRP      4%   37%   59%        Gibson Alba     Randy McCament       Carlos Silva
Fernando Abad     RP      3%   25%   72%          Chris Key        Cliff Young     Roberto Rivera
Chris Sampson     RP     11%   44%   45%        Bob Stanley     Mark Petkovsek   Bobby Tiefenauer
Jordan Lyles      SP      3%   41%   56%    George Stablein       Sergio Mitre      Dave Weathers
Brad Thompson     RP      6%   21%   73%      Tim Harikkala      Mickey Weston       Bill Fischer
Roy Corcoran      RP      2%   17%   80%           Jim Todd        Gary Wagner        Dale Murray
Jorge De Leon     RP      8%   22%   70% Heathcliff Slocumb         Alan Mills      Julio DePaula
Brian Moehler     SP      6%   24%   70%        Mike Morgan        Milt Gaston    Steve Ontiveros
Ross Wolf         RP      5%   27%   68%         Sean Green         Greg Bauer      Kevin Cameron
Jose Trinidad     RP      1%   11%   88%      Gabe Gonzalez     Tanyon Sturtze        Juan Agosto
Wesley Wright     RP      0%   10%   89%       Brandon Bowe       Paul Mancuso        Rich Scheid
Brad Thompson     RP      2%   14%   83%      Tim Harikkala         Ron Taylor        Tom Brennan
David Carpenter   RP      1%   13%   86%     Marc Pisciotta       Brian Bowles      David Aardsma
Henry Villar      RP      0%    6%   94%      Shane Bazzell      Julio DePaula Dennis Konuszewski
Aneury Rodriguez  SP      2%   26%   72%         Tim Mauser       Rob Woodward         Steve Farr
Matt Nevarez      RP      2%   10%   88%        Ted Langdon         Rich Pratt         Jeff Smith
Shane Loux        SP      2%   15%   83%           Joe Mays        Pat Ahearne     Brian Tollberg
Ryan Rowland-SmithSP      0%    8%   92%     Michael Bacsik      Ryan O’Malley       Jamie Walker
Gary Majewski     RP      1%    7%   92%       Danny Graves      Todd Williams        Carl Willis
Josh Banks        SP      0%    5%   95%       Mark Johnson       Brad Ziegler          Dave Ford
Lance Pendleton   SP      0%    3%   97%          Ben Fritz     Daron Kirkreit     Edwardo Sierra
Gustavo Chacin    SP      0%    3%   97%     Chris Michalak     Adam Pettyjohn       Jamie Walker
Casey Daigle      RP      0%    4%   96%       Mike Villano   Jamie Brewington        Steve Mintz
T.J. Burton       RP      0%    3%   96%       Nick McCurdy        Steven Rowe         Alan Benes
Sergio Perez      SP      0%    1%   99%          Ben Fritz     Carlos Paredes       Adam Russell
Arcenio Leon      RP      0%    1%   99%          Tim Meeks       Mike Schultz     Edwardo Sierra
Cesar Carrillo    SP      0%    0%  100%    Brandon Emanuel    Bryan Eversgerd      Edward Valdez

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Hunter Pence            15%       3%      16%       4%       6%      24%       4%       5%
Carlos Lee              14%       2%      16%       2%       0%      14%       4%       0%
Brett Wallace            4%       2%       2%       1%       1%       3%       1%       0%
Chris Johnson            9%       0%       6%       1%       2%       3%       1%       0%
Jeff Keppinger          21%       8%       2%       1%       1%       0%       1%       0%
J.D. Martinez           10%       2%       1%       8%       3%       1%       1%       0%
Michael Bourn            4%       4%       0%       0%      19%       0%       0%      96%
Jason Bourgeois         14%       2%       1%       0%       5%       0%       1%      36%
Jason Michaels           5%       3%       6%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Matt Downs               4%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       2%
Andrew Locke             2%       0%       1%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Brian Bogusevic          1%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Koby Clemens             0%       0%       1%       1%       3%       3%       0%       0%
Jason Castro             1%       3%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Clint Barmes             2%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
J.R. Towles              2%       4%       3%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Chris Shelton            1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jimmy Paredes            4%       0%       2%       1%      16%       0%       0%      64%
Albert Cartwright        1%       0%       2%       1%      39%       1%       1%      17%
Cory Sullivan            4%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Angel Sanchez            4%       0%       0%       0%       5%       0%       0%       0%
German Duran             3%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Collin DeLome            0%       0%       2%       0%      29%       2%       0%       0%
Jonathan Gaston          0%       0%       2%       0%      31%       2%       0%       0%
Wladimir Sutil           3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%      13%
Matt Kata                1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Jay Austin               0%       0%       0%       4%      55%       0%       0%      87%
Oswaldo Navarro          0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Tommy Manzella           1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Anderson Hernandez       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Humberto Quintero        3%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Yordany Ramirez          0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Edwin Maysonet           1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
T. J. Steele             1%       0%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       0%
Brian Esposito           0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Wandy Rodriguez           16%        77%        56%         3%        74%
Brandon Lyon              16%        69%        11%         2%        85%
Wilton Lopez              15%        53%         3%        77%        74%
Brett Myers                7%        56%        21%         4%        44%
Mark Melancon             16%        55%        33%         6%        62%
Alberto Arias              9%        47%         8%         1%        89%
J.A. Happ                  2%        34%        15%         0%        30%
Samuel Gervacio           14%        60%        73%         0%        51%
Matt Lindstrom             6%        40%        19%         2%        66%
Jeff Fulchino              6%        42%        33%         1%        66%
Tim Byrdak                10%        42%        42%         0%        48%
Nelson Figueroa            5%        37%        23%         6%        54%
Bud Norris                 2%        34%        75%         0%        63%
Willie Eyre                6%        31%         5%         2%        82%
Enerio Del Rosario         3%        29%         0%        13%        55%
Fernando Abad              2%        23%         9%        39%        29%
Chris Sampson             11%        43%         4%        19%        64%
Jordan Lyles               0%        14%         4%         0%        75%
Brad Thompson              4%        22%         2%        36%        44%
Roy Corcoran               2%        15%         1%         1%        69%
Jorge De Leon              8%        30%         6%         0%        85%
Brian Moehler              2%        12%         2%         6%        58%
Ross Wolf                  5%        24%         5%         1%        61%
Jose Trinidad              1%         7%         0%         0%        71%
Wesley Wright              0%         6%        18%         0%        28%
Brad Thompson              2%        13%         1%        39%        46%
David Carpenter            0%         7%         8%         0%        64%
Henry Villar               0%         3%         1%         0%        39%
Aneury Rodriguez           0%         8%         1%         0%        27%
Matt Nevarez               2%        12%        60%         0%        69%
Shane Loux                 0%         6%         1%        15%        45%
Ryan Rowland-Smith         0%         1%         0%         2%         6%
Gary Majewski              0%         6%         0%         1%        47%
Josh Banks                 0%         1%         0%         5%        10%
Lance Pendleton            0%         0%         0%         0%        31%
Gustavo Chacin             0%         2%         1%         0%        23%
Casey Daigle               0%         3%         4%         0%        23%
T.J. Burton                0%         2%         0%         1%        20%
Sergio Perez               0%         0%         0%         0%        47%
Arcenio Leon               0%         1%         3%         0%        66%
Cesar Carrillo             0%         0%         0%         0%         9%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Baltimore Orioles
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 16, 2010 at 06:42 PM | 47 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Barold Posted: December 16, 2010 at 07:01 PM (#3712368)
Chris Johnson is listed in the career projections but is missing from the projections for this year
   2. xanthan Posted: December 16, 2010 at 07:22 PM (#3712388)
Is this the worst team ZiPS projection yet? Nothing on offense and their pitching looks awful.
   3. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 16, 2010 at 07:43 PM (#3712410)
I don't think the pitching looks that bad. They've got two starters above average, and three other starters who can post an ERA below 4.50. That's not shabby. The bullpen has some useful parts.

But that lineup looks godawful - probably the worst I've seen thus far. Seattle, KC, Houston - the race for 500 runs scored!
   4. jda Posted: December 16, 2010 at 07:50 PM (#3712419)
At the risk of sounding ungrateful when Dan has done a fantastic job (as usual) with ZiPS - we still need Chris Johnson's defensive ratings and the like! I can imagine that PR rating all I want, but there's a certain resignation that comes from actually seeing it in print.

For that matter, I guess I've been surprised at some of the positions players have (not) been rated at this winter (Jake Fox and Logan Morrison are the only examples I can think of off the top of my head), and it leads me to wonder how Dan is choosing which positions a given player will be eligible for.

Again, though, that's just nitpicking; I'm thrilled to see the projections, period.
   5. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 16, 2010 at 08:01 PM (#3712433)
Amazingly, the projections for Pirates hitters are clearly better.

The pitching: awful but in a different way: [ERA+]

Astros starter projections:
109
101
94
92
91
84
79
75
73
73

Pirates starter projections:
98
97
92
88
87
83
82
81
80
76

Astros reliever projections:
108
102
101
98
94
93
93
92
89
88

Pirates reliever projections:
117
113
97
95
93
92
91
81
80
78
   6. Ron Johnson Posted: December 16, 2010 at 08:20 PM (#3712448)
What on earth does it mean when a pitcher has Steve Ontiveros as his top comp?
   7. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 16, 2010 at 08:23 PM (#3712451)
Time for him to double up on insurance.
   8. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 16, 2010 at 08:52 PM (#3712496)
Johnson will be FR/150 at 3B.
   9. LWNNcommish Posted: December 16, 2010 at 09:01 PM (#3712510)
No projection for Chia-Jen Lo this year?
   10. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 16, 2010 at 09:23 PM (#3712533)
What on earth does it mean when a pitcher has Steve Ontiveros as his top comp?


There was a pitcher with that name.

-- MWE
   11. base ball chick Posted: December 16, 2010 at 09:23 PM (#3712534)
i'm not mad at you dan

and not because it is even grimmer than you show

i have heard from very good info that fast eddie has been ordeerd to reduce payroll to 60 or so mill at MOST and therefore he is now trying to get rid of not only matt lindstrom, carlos lee (FAT chance - hahahaha) and jeff keppinger (for that mysterious cheaper, better hitting sec ond baseman) but pence, bourn and wandy as well

the ONLY well paid player not available is fast eddie's little petsy-poo, the ol WifeBeater and his 12 mill. oh yeah - and brandon lyon - hey, gots to save those 40 or so wins

the team is gonna look a LOT mnore like the 03 tigers

and anyone who wants defensive ratings for chris johnson can enter "teh sukc" and go from there
   12. Ken015 Posted: December 16, 2010 at 10:13 PM (#3712591)
The defensive ratings on Barmes confuse me a bit. He played a very good SS this year from all I have seen and read yet zips has his SS defensive rating dropping from last seasons VG down to AV, am I missing something?
   13. Walt Davis Posted: December 16, 2010 at 11:27 PM (#3712637)
What on earth does it mean when a pitcher has Steve Ontiveros as his top comp?

The same as when one has Ryan Braun or when Carlos Lee has Frank Thomas.

Just imagine how confused I was in real time. What are the odds -- only two MLBers in history with the last name Ontiveros and they're both Steves and apparently not related?
   14. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 16, 2010 at 11:49 PM (#3712647)
Just imagine how confused I was in real time. What are the odds -- only two MLBers in history with the last name Ontiveros and they're both Steves and apparently not related?

Yes it was worse than the Torrealabas
   15. Sweatpants Posted: December 17, 2010 at 12:04 AM (#3712655)
Is anyone bold enough to take the under on 70 wins? It seems like they've been projected to be terrible each year since 2007, but then something ridiculous happens (105 OPS+ for Keppinger!) and they end up being mediocre or better.
   16. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 17, 2010 at 12:26 AM (#3712671)
2006 was fueling Barmes's VG and that keeps getting farther away (he was borderline one way last year and now borderline the other way this year).

A year of defensive numbers is about as useful as 2 months of offensive numbers. As he has half-a-year of defensive numbers in the last 3 at SS, the *implied* SS numbers based on 2B play also factor in which suggest a "true" SS range value of 2-3 runs above average a year.
   17. Tricky Dick Posted: December 17, 2010 at 01:02 AM (#3712685)
I'm confused as to why Ryan Garko is on the list. I'm not aware that the Astros ever signed him.
   18. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 17, 2010 at 02:08 AM (#3712716)
Ignore Garko as he was in Oklahoma City (and going to Korea). On some of b-r's pages, the affiliates for Houston and Texas got reversed (there was a similar problem when I had Sampson on the Rangers).
   19. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: December 17, 2010 at 02:41 AM (#3712730)
May we assume that the Carlos Lee comp is Frank Thomas the Lesser?
   20. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 17, 2010 at 03:08 AM (#3712748)
Yeah, the lesser Frank Thomas.
   21. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: December 17, 2010 at 03:10 AM (#3712751)
18: Ahhh... I had wondered.

You know, I knew there was a Steve Ontiveros position player, but I grew up with the pitcher (who won an ERA title!) so the idea that someone would think of the other guy first made me laugh. I'm easily amused, which is nice.
   22. Ron J Posted: December 17, 2010 at 04:02 AM (#3712769)
Walt and Mike, #7 was what I was going for. Pretty fair pitcher when healthy -- which was roughly never.
   23. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 17, 2010 at 05:10 AM (#3712795)
There were also two Jeff D'Amicos. And currently, two Drew Andersons, which have caused problems in ZiPS a few times.
   24. David Ogren Posted: December 17, 2010 at 05:31 AM (#3712810)
Why does Aneury Rodriguez have a worse projection (75 ERA+) as an Astro than he did as a Ray (82 ERA+)? I'd think it ought to be the other way around, a guy moving to the easier league should get a better projection...
   25. Walt Davis Posted: December 17, 2010 at 09:56 AM (#3712882)
There were also two Jeff D'Amicos

I'd forgotten about them.

The best of course is that, by b-r sim scores, Alex Gonzalez is Alex Gonzalez's most similar player for ages 26-30 while Alex Gonzalez is Alex Gonzalez's most similar player from ages 26-33.

And, no, I ain't taking the under on 70 wins. I don't know how but somehow they will win 75 games. Yes, they'll probably start the season something like 20-50 and then, somehow, they will win 75 games. Maybe God figures living in Houston is punishment enough and can't bear to inflict a 100-loss team on the people as well.
   26. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 17, 2010 at 01:54 PM (#3712909)
Why does Aneury Rodriguez have a worse projection (75 ERA+) as an Astro than he did as a Ray (82 ERA+)? I'd think it ought to be the other way around, a guy moving to the easier league should get a better projection...

Big defense change.
   27. David Ogren Posted: December 17, 2010 at 02:16 PM (#3712917)
Hmm. Let's see, the difference between a 75 and 82 ERA+ is around .48 R/9. Plus the league difference, which is another, what, .15 R/9 or thereabouts? So ZiPS is assuming that Tampa's defense is like 100 runs per year better than Houston's. Wow. That seems awfully aggressive.
   28. TomH Posted: December 17, 2010 at 02:43 PM (#3712928)
which Greg Harris was amphibious always confused me....
   29. Dan The Mediocre Posted: December 17, 2010 at 02:50 PM (#3712930)
I would take the under on 70 wins. I would also take the under on 60 wins if they weren't in a terrible division.

They get to fight the Pirates for 5th.
   30. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 17, 2010 at 03:01 PM (#3712933)
Does something like Romine and a pitching prospect (I'm thinking one from the group of Noesi, Warren, Brackman) sound fair for Wandy?

That's a B and a B- or 2 B-'s, per Sickels. Makes sense to me in the context of the Gonzalez trade, but of course I'm biased as a Yankee fan.
   31. BK Arbour Posted: December 17, 2010 at 03:10 PM (#3712941)
Does something like Romine and a pitching prospect (I'm thinking one from the group of Noesi, Warren, Brackman) sound fair for Wandy?


In the abstract, yes, but 'Stros seem overly optimistic on Jason Castro's future. So I don't think they're in the market for a catching prospect.
   32. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: December 17, 2010 at 03:23 PM (#3712948)
How many games would this team win in the AL or NL east?
   33. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 17, 2010 at 03:33 PM (#3712953)
How many games would this team win in the AL or NL east?

In the AL East, I suspect we'd have to measure Houston's quality in seasons per win, not wins per season.
   34. Roger Cedeno's Spleen Posted: December 17, 2010 at 06:48 PM (#3713129)
The 2012 Astros may be what the Maya were trying to warn us about...
   35. The Essex Snead Posted: December 17, 2010 at 07:15 PM (#3713141)
which Greg Harris was amphibious always confused me....

The one w/ wings on his ankles, obviously.
   36. Roger Cedeno's Spleen Posted: December 17, 2010 at 08:03 PM (#3713184)
I wonder what impact this will have on the upcoming sale.
How many potential buyers will be spooked when their baseball consultants tell them, "Even if you hire a dream team front office, make absolutely no mistakes and get no bad breaks... your new team won't be in contention for at least 4-5 years?"

Unfortunately the rumored lists of possible buyers I've seen are full of the kind of people who would not panic over such news: i.e. out of town investment groups who would be happy to take over a low payroll and treat the team like a stock portfolio instead of a competitive sporting venture... just coasting along and skimming dividends (revenue sharing payments and proceeds from the new, very favorable local TV deal) while hoping for a gradual increase in value (the pattern for MLB franchises to date)...
   37. Kid Charlemagne Posted: December 17, 2010 at 09:22 PM (#3713235)
Could be worse. Imagine if George Foremans' kids had all gone into baseball.
   38. Ennder Posted: December 18, 2010 at 05:46 PM (#3713614)
Why does Aneury Rodriguez have a worse projection (75 ERA+) as an Astro than he did as a Ray (82 ERA+)? I'd think it ought to be the other way around, a guy moving to the easier league should get a better projection...


ERA+ is already adjusted for the league so it shouldn't change from just switching leagues. I would think it changes because he is going from a very strong defensive team to a very poor defensive team.
   39. Tricky Dick Posted: December 18, 2010 at 09:32 PM (#3713722)
And, no, I ain't taking the under on 70 wins. I don't know how but somehow they will win 75 games. Yes, they'll probably start the season something like 20-50 and then, somehow, they will win 75 games. Maybe God figures living in Houston is punishment enough and can't bear to inflict a 100-loss team on the people as well.


The Astros haven't had a 100 loss team in its history. I am very skeptical that it starts now. The Astros' actual record has exceeded its Pythagorean Record in all but one of the last 5 years. I don't know why. But Walt's description seems to fit the Astros typical season. I think most people here would have taken the under on 70 wins last year. At the end of May, the Astros' record was 17-34, and a 100 loss season seemed likely. For the first half of the season, the Astros' record was 36-53. For the second half of the season (despite trading away Oswalt and Berkman), the Astros record was 40-33. Again, I don't know why, but the Astros seem to make a habit of coming on strong in the second half of the season.

In the abstract, yes, but 'Stros seem overly optimistic on Jason Castro's future. So I don't think they're in the market for a catching prospect.


In addition to Castro, the Astros also have a couple of upwardly mobile catchers in the farm system. Ben Heath, drafted out of Penn State in 2010, made it from short season low-A up to AA by the end of the season. I take it that the Astros must like him.
   40. Tricky Dick Posted: December 18, 2010 at 09:46 PM (#3713724)
Hmm. Let's see, the difference between a 75 and 82 ERA+ is around .48 R/9. Plus the league difference, which is another, what, .15 R/9 or thereabouts? So ZiPS is assuming that Tampa's defense is like 100 runs per year better than Houston's. Wow. That seems awfully aggressive.


Fangraphs shows a UZR/150 for Tampa of +5 and -2.9 for the Astros. If I understand how to apply that correctly, that would be about 75 runs per year difference. The Astros are ranked 20th and the Rays are ranked 5th by UZR.
   41. cardsfanboy Posted: December 18, 2010 at 09:56 PM (#3713728)


ERA+ is already adjusted for the league so it shouldn't change from just switching leagues. I would think it changes because he is going from a very strong defensive team to a very poor defensive team.


not exactly, era+ is adjusted relative to it's league, It has nothing to do with the other league. If you have a 100 era+ in double A, it doesn't mean it projects to 100+ in the majors. Many people feel that the al is the stronger league and that a 100+ pitcher there is better than a 100+ pitcher in the nl, a good projection system accounts for that.
   42. David Ogren Posted: December 19, 2010 at 05:32 AM (#3713905)
Fangraphs shows a UZR/150 for Tampa of +5 and -2.9 for the Astros. If I understand how to apply that correctly, that would be about 75 runs per year difference. The Astros are ranked 20th and the Rays are ranked 5th by UZR.
FanGraphs provides team totals - the Rays are at +33 runs, the Astros -13. So, nowhere near as big a difference as ZiPS is showing. And of course, there's the matter of the Rays losing Crawford.

But more importantly, observed difference != projected difference. There's so much uncertainty in defensive stats that projecting a difference that large is really going out on a limb. I don't think you can ever confidently project a team to be more than 50 runs above or below average. I do my own individual defense projections based on a combination of STATS ZR and BIS ZR... right now, I don't have any team projected more extreme than +/- 35.
   43. Tricky Dick Posted: December 19, 2010 at 04:41 PM (#3714043)
But more importantly, observed difference != projected difference.


The Astros' defensive alignment will be different next year, and it probably will be better than 2010. A middle infield combination of Barmes and Hall probably will improve defense at those positions. If Lee plays more 1st base, I would expect the Astros' overall defense to improve, since Lee's outfield D is the biggest drag on the Astros' overall rating. Wallace looked good on defense at 1st base last year. So, even if Lee doesn't play 1st base, there probably will be some improvement on the 2010 defense at 1st base. Chris Johnson's defense probably can't get worse at 3d base, and it's alway possible that he improves a bit.
   44. shoewizard Posted: December 20, 2010 at 05:28 AM (#3714405)
What on earth does it mean when a pitcher has Steve Ontiveros as his top comp?


Don't be baggin on my boy Stevie now......he was my son's pitching coach and a damn good one. He also won an ERA title in the strike shortened season of 94. 113 Career ERA+. Most importantly, good guy. Good coach.
   45. Travolta19 Posted: December 30, 2010 at 04:40 PM (#3720117)
Dan, can we get a projection for Bill Hall here?
   46. The District Attorney Posted: December 30, 2010 at 04:54 PM (#3720129)
What?

Where?
   47. Ken015 Posted: January 02, 2011 at 05:47 PM (#3721783)
Since Carlos Lee is expected to play some 1B this season as he did the end of last season will he receive a defensive rating there, and if so would I correct in assuming it will be a PR?

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