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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, November 25, 2010

2011 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City Royals

Let’s get the obvious out of the way first:  the Royals are a pretty lousy team at the major league level and the general manager, Dayton Moore, evaluates talent at the major league level almost as bad as, well, I can’t think of anything at the time.  (Paris Hilton hides cocaine?  Roman Polanski shows up for trial?  Murray Chass does anything that requires coherent thought?  None of these seem worse)

What the Royals do have is an amazing farm system, up-and-down, there are a number of potential stars, starters, and even an impressive slate of guys who should be solid role players.  The biggest question facing the Royals in the near future is how Moore will handle transitioning these players into major league roles.  For example, Mike Montgomery or John Lamb are likely to force their way into the rotation, but what happens to the players that can contribute but whose impact in the majors is less than utterly and completely obvious?  Butler and Greinke were treated well by the organization, but Moore’s management style towards non-stars under 30 seems to be best described as hostile indifference.  So in recent years, there’s been a situation in which useful players like Ka’aihue, Aviles, Gordon, Maier, and others are just kind of “hanging around.”  Sure, they’ll keep getting at-bats when they play well, but they’re always bad road trip from being benched and their opportunities never seem to follow any logical train-of-thought derived from the organizations strengths or weaknesses.  So you end up with situations in which Willie Bloomquist ends up being a starting corner outfielder because Moore’s played Sgt. Schulz with talent, despite corner outfielders better than Bloomquist being easier to find than abandoned houses in Detroit.

But the talent is there and the Royals do have an opportunity to be the surprise team of 2012 or 2013 if they just seize it.  A lot of even the low-level guys have the potential to race through the system this year.  One last note, Wil Myers isn’t as ready to catch in the majors as he looks like below - his arm is MLB quality (he can reportedly throw 90 and pitched in high school), but he’s still fairly new to catching and very unpolished at the “other” stuff.

Next up:  Cincinnati

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age    BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Billy Butler      R    1B  25   .304 .372 .467 154 572  75 174  40   1  17  81  62  82   0   0  125
Kila Ka’aihue     L    1B  27   .244 .355 .412 141 495  72 121  21   1  20  70  84 104   1   1  107
Mike Aviles       R    2B  30   .290 .319 .416 114 449  64 130  22   4   9  46  19  57   9   3   97
Wilson Betemit    B    3B  29   .258 .327 .433 107 326  36  84  22   1  11  45  34  87   1   1  103
Alex Gordon       L    LF  27   .244 .342 .407 129 464  73 113  27   2  15  55  63 126   8   4  102
Eric Hosmer       L    1B  21   .263 .321 .413 154 593  70 156  35   6  14  82  50 111   8   2   97
Chris Getz        L    2B  27   .277 .336 .363 107 358  45  99  18   2   3  33  29  46  18   3   89
Mike Moustakas    B    3B  22   .258 .295 .435 152 616  81 159  41   1  22 100  31 104   6   4   94
William Myers     R    C   20   .251 .335 .392 154 577  66 145  39   3  12  76  69 134  11   9   96
Tim Smith         L    LF  25   .268 .318 .378 114 418  46 112  20   1   8  50  26  77  16   6   87
Johnny Giavotella R    2B  23   .266 .326 .375 154 605  89 161  31   7   7  58  52  81  14   8   89
Brayan Pena       B    C   29   .268 .315 .387  77 235  23  63  14   1   4  29  15  28   3   2   89
Josh Fields       R    3B  28   .251 .315 .391  78 271  35  68  12   1   8  33  25  79   4   3   90
Mitch Maier       L    CF  29   .261 .323 .362 127 417  50 109  19   4   5  42  38  74   7   3   85
Clint Robinson    L    1B  26   .250 .300 .397 134 504  58 126  29   3  13  59  34 109   3   3   86
David Lough       L    LF  25   .257 .305 .387 143 553  69 142  23   8  11  55  31  91  13   8   85
Yuniesky BetancourR    SS  29   .266 .292 .392 152 549  60 146  31   4  10  64  21  50   3   3   83
Scott Thorman     L    1B  29   .239 .286 .403 115 427  48 102  23   1  15  53  25  81   5   3   84
Jordan Parraz     R    RF  26   .248 .321 .360 119 444  54 110  25   2   7  47  36  91  10   8   84
Ed Lucas          R    SS  29   .240 .313 .354 101 362  43  87  16   2   7  37  36  84   8   3   80
Salvador Perez    R    C   21   .265 .288 .375 132 491  40 130  26   2   8  59  18  59   1   1   77
Gregor Blanco     L    CF  27   .245 .333 .320 134 428  59 105  16   5   2  30  56  95  16   6   78
Luke May          R    C   26   .235 .290 .372 106 387  43  91  19   2  10  42  27 104   4   2   77
Joaquin Arias     R    2B  26   .256 .282 .333 120 414  51 106  15   4   3  38  14  55  13   3   66
Jeff Bianchi      R    SS  24   .244 .278 .357 115 446  57 109  25   2   7  51  21 117  12   5   70
Jarrod Dyson      L    CF  26   .237 .289 .310  94 358  53  85  15   4   1  28  25  79  31   9   62
Paulo Orlando     R    RF  25   .245 .285 .346 135 503  64 123  21   6   6  43  18 115  20  10   69
Derrick Robinson  B    CF  23   .248 .291 .323 152 625  79 155  25   8   2  49  37 114  51  22   66
Jason Kendall     R    C   37   .245 .316 .305 118 420  37 103  20   1   1  36  36  45   9   4   69
Lance Zawadzki    B    SS  26   .222 .285 .335 120 454  60 101  19   4   8  44  38 121  11   3   67
Manuel Pina       R    C   24   .238 .282 .340 104 382  38  91  19   1   6  39  20  65   1   0   67
Cody Clark        R    C   29   .229 .277 .349  63 192  20  44   9   1   4  18  11  35   1   1   68
Marc Maddox       R    2B  27   .228 .289 .293 105 386  51  88  17   1   2  31  28  70   7   5   58

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Billy Butler                 AV/106
Kila Ka’aihue                 AV/98
Mike Aviles                          AV/113 AV /113  AV/114
Wilson Betemit               AV/117  PO/131  FR/149  PO/106
Alex Gordon                                  AV/130          AV/116          AV/165
Eric Hosmer                  AV/134
Chris Getz                            AV/78  AV/123  PO/125  AV/143
Mike Moustakas                               AV/131  PO/128
William Myers            AV
Tim Smith                                                    AV/141          AV/141
Johnny Giavotella                    AV/177
Brayan Pena              AV                  FR/112          AV/112          AV/112
Josh Fields                  AV/108          FR/149
Mitch Maier                                                  VG/142   AV/76  VG/142
Clint Robinson               AV/199
David Lough                                                  VG/112  AV/165  VG/160
Yuniesky Betancourt                                  PO/106
Scott Thorman                AV/111          PO/106          AV/172
Jordan Parraz                                                        PO/144  VG/148
Ed Lucas                     AV/110  FR/138  VG/112  PO/112  VG/169          VG/160
Salvador Perez           VG
Gregor Blanco                                                VG/141   AV/93  VG/141
Luke May                 FR
Joaquin Arias                AV/122  AV/151            126/
Jeff Bianchi                          AV/78          FR/108
Jarrod Dyson                                                 VG/118  VG/170  VG/118
Paulo Orlando                                                VG/149  AV/229  VG/207
Derrick Robinson                                             VG/110  VG/200
Jason Kendall            AV
Lance Zawadzki                       AV/145  AV/145  AV/177
Manuel Pina              VG
Cody Clark               FR
Marc Maddox                           AV/91  AV/115  AV/122

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Zack Greinke      R     27    3.28    16    8   33   33  222.0  206   81   17   52  211  129
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Mike Montgomery   L     21    4.65     5    6   19   19   89.0   94   46    7   45   59   91
Gil Meche         R     32    4.67     6    7   24   20  117.7  121   61   13   54   93   91
Luke Hochevar     R     27    4.67     9   10   25   25  146.3  156   76   16   48  104   91
Jorge Campillo    R     32    4.73     4    4   20   14   85.7   97   45   10   24   52   90
Bruce Chen        L     34    4.77     6    7   25   17  105.7  109   56   14   43   75   89
Kyle Davies       R     27    4.80    10   12   33   33  183.7  196   98   20   79  128   88
John Lamb         L     20    4.80     8   10   29   29  138.7  152   74   11   68   96   88
Buddy Baumann     L     23    4.82     3    3   33   15   93.3  101   50    8   49   66   88
Vin Mazzaro       R     24    4.99     8   10   29   26  155.0  173   86   20   63  102   85
Danny Duffy       L     22    5.08     4    5   16   16   78.0   86   44    9   34   54   83
Bryan Bullington  R     30    5.18     5    7   30   15  106.0  124   61   13   39   66   82
Sean O’Sullivan   R     23    5.20     6    8   23   19  105.7  120   61   15   35   59   82
Brian Bannister   R     30    5.22     8   12   28   28  153.3  175   89   22   49   96   81
Christopher Dwyer L     23    5.36     5    8   20   20   95.7  109   57    9   57   69   79
Kevin Pucetas     R     26    5.65     5    9   27   27  137.0  174   86   15   56   71   75
Anthony Lerew     R     28    5.93     5   10   25   23  121.3  153   80   16   58   59   71
Edgar Osuna       L     23    5.95     5    9   25   24  127.0  160   84   22   39   64   71
Gaby Hernandez    R     25    6.12     6   12   28   24  136.7  161   93   27   59   80   69
Philip Humber     R     28    6.16     5   10   31   22  130.0  167   89   23   48   70   69
Mario Santiago    R     26    6.29     5   11   23   22  108.7  151   76   14   40   45   67
Will Smith        L     21    6.37     5   12   25   25  137.0  176   97   25   51   72   67
Everett Teaford   L     27    6.41     5   12   28   20  112.3  141   80   21   52   66   66
Eduardo Paulino   R     25    6.58     4   10   26   21  108.0  140   79   17   60   52   64
Aaron Crow        R     24    6.75     5   15   30   30  157.3  207  118   26   85   90   63

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Joakim Soria      R     27    2.67     3    1   62    0   64.0   52   19    5   18   74  159
Rob Tejeda        R     29    3.66     4    3   53    0   59.0   49   24    5   31   64  116
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 
Louis Coleman     R     25    3.97     6    5   44    0   88.3   82   39    9   34   77  107
Tim Collins       L     21    3.99     5    4   56    0   70.0   62   31    7   40   76  106
Juan Cruz         R     32    4.12     2    2   39    0   39.3   35   18    4   22   41  103
Dusty Hughes      L     28    4.62     2    3   61    0   62.3   66   32    6   30   43   92
Henry Barrera     L     25    4.66     1    1   22    0   29.0   30   15    3   15   22   91
Patrick Keating   R     24    4.70     2    2   42    0   67.0   65   35    8   39   65   90
Blaine Hardy      L     24    4.70     4    5   40    6   88.0   95   46    9   35   53   90
Jesse Chavez      R     27    4.79     4    5   64    0   71.3   75   38   10   27   55   88
Kanekoa Texeira   R     25    4.88     2    3   49    0   66.3   73   36    6   31   40   87
Greg Holland      R     25    4.92     3    4   44    0   64.0   66   35    7   38   51   86
Blake Wood        R     25    4.97     3    4   58    0   58.0   64   32    6   26   36   85
John Parrish      L     33    4.99     3    4   27    6   52.3   57   29    5   28   37   85
Matt Herges       R     41    5.32     4    7   48    2   69.3   83   41    8   29   38   80
Josh Rupe         R     28    5.42     3    5   45    4   79.7   94   48    8   42   47   78
Victor Marte      R     30    5.43     3    5   48    0   69.7   79   42    8   37   44   78
Roman Colon       R     31    5.44     2    4   28    2   49.7   59   30    6   18   27   78
Barry Bowden      R     26    5.54     3    5   45    0   52.0   58   32    7   31   35   77

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Billy Butler        .290  .357  .439  2429  9031  1096  2619   589    16   242  1194   945  1212     1   114
Jason Kendall       .284  .361  .371  2287  8348  1091  2371   428    36    76   805   779   761   204    93
Yuniesky Betancour  .265  .290  .385  1569  5630   614  1494   306    40    96   617   202   502    38    80
Mike Aviles         .284  .313  .404   967  3806   517  1082   177    32    71   364   157   455    67    92

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Zack Greinke       203  147    1    3.61  517  475     3149 3064 1264  288  773 2847    119
Gil Meche          104  107    0    4.59  336  311     1823 1856  929  223  784 1353     96

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Billy Butler      1B    23%  39%  20%  14%   3%       Paul Konerko         Sean Casey       Mike Sweeney
Kila Ka’aihue     1B     4%  18%  22%  34%  23%      Graham Koonce        Damon Minor          J.T. Snow
Mike Aviles       2B    17%  19%  21%  24%  19%      Carlos Garcia    Joseph Thurston      Julian Javier
Wilson Betemit    3B     7%  21%  28%  26%  19%          Wes Helms       Mike Blowers        Greg Norton
Alex Gordon       LF     4%  18%  20%  26%  32%          Bob Skube     Mark Gillaspie    Ryan Langerhans
Eric Hosmer       1B     3%  10%  13%  31%  43%          Sid Bream         Mike Brown     Daryl Sconiers
Chris Getz        2B    15%  17%  21%  25%  22%         Mike Gates       Lenny Harris       Mitch Simons
Mike Moustakas    3B     4%  12%  20%  27%  37%      Howard Battle     Fernando Tatis      Larry Parrish
William Myers     C     11%  26%  24%  24%  14%    George Kottaras      Tyler Flowers        Jeff Mathis
Tim Smith         LF     2%   5%   6%  14%  72%       Andre Ethier     Kevin Coughlin     Rowland Office
Johnny Giavotella 2B     7%   9%  15%  27%  44%         Luis Rivas     Orlando Hudson      William Suero
Brayan Pena       C      5%  19%  23%  30%  23%       Sandy Alomar    David Lindstrom     Edwin Bellorin
Josh Fields       3B     2%   8%  15%  26%  48%       Fran MullinsYurendell de Caster        Mendy Lopez
Mitch Maier       CF     2%   6%  19%  34%  38%      Terry Bogener      Cory Sullivan       Mike Kingery
Clint Robinson    1B     0%   1%   4%  19%  76%      Garrett Jones   Brant ColamarinoGuillermo Velasquez
David Lough       LF     1%   3%   4%  11%  82%       Brian Kowitz       Bubba Crosby         Steve Gill
Yuniesky BetancourSS     2%   8%  22%  33%  35%         Pat Meares     Gary DiSarcina         Deivi Cruz
Scott Thorman     1B     0%   1%   3%  14%  81%          Mike Bell       Chris Widger      George Canale
Jordan Parraz     RF     0%   1%   3%   9%  87%       Dave Hollins      Luis Montanez        Alvin Moore
Ed Lucas          SS     4%   7%  20%  31%  38%         Nick Green  George Strickland     Casey Benjamin
Salvador Perez    C      2%   7%  13%  29%  48%      Luis Oliveros       Bobby Wilson        Manuel Pina
Gregor Blanco     CF     1%   2%  11%  30%  55%     Curtis Goodwin       Mark Gilbert      Dave Brundage
Luke May          C      1%   5%  12%  31%  51%       Alvin Colina    Emerson Frostad         Ryan Budde
Joaquin Arias     2B     0%   1%   3%  10%  86%      Argenis Reyes           Pete Orr  Mark Grudzielanek
Jeff Bianchi      SS     1%   2%   9%  23%  65%     Rafael Ramirez          Bill Hall        Ed Brinkman
Jarrod Dyson      CF     0%   1%   4%  14%  81%      Scott Bullett         Chuck Carr    Herm Winningham
Paulo Orlando     RF     0%   0%   0%   2%  98%      Rusty Tillman      Darwin Pennye      Scott Bullett
Derrick Robinson  CF     0%   1%   5%  13%  81%      Scott Bullett         Chuck Carr Tyrone Pendergrass
Jason Kendall     C      1%   4%   6%  19%  70%        Brad Ausmus          Tony Pena        Luke Sewell
Lance Zawadzki    SS     1%   2%   7%  18%  71%    Julius McDougal     Giomar Guevara      Pedro Sanchez
Manuel Pina       C      1%   3%   5%  17%  75%    Carlos Corporan    Jeff Winchester      Wyatt Toregas
Cody Clark        C      2%   3%   4%  14%  78%        Jason Brown          Mike Ryan   Brandon Marsters
Marc Maddox       2B     0%   0%   0%   1%  99%        Keith Johns      Zach Borowiak       John Tamargo

Player            PO     TOP   MID   BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Joakim Soria      RP     87%   13%    1%         Eric Gagne       Bruce Sutter     Tom Niedenfuer
Zack Greinke      SP     89%   11%    0%          Jose Rijo      Bert Blyleven     Javier Vazquez
Rob Tejeda        RP     42%   45%   13%         Ryne Duren          Juan Cruz           Jim Kern
Louis Coleman     RP     22%   57%   22%         Danys Baez   Fernando Cabrera       Bert Roberge
Tim Collins       RP     21%   51%   27%        John Rocker      Chuck McElroy       Dennys Reyes
Juan Cruz         RP     18%   44%   38%         Ryne Duren       Dwayne Henry         Joe Boever
Dusty Hughes      RP      7%   36%   57%        Matt Dunbar        Dan Ricabal       Randy Choate
Mike Montgomery   SP     17%   47%   36%      Trevor Wilson       Bill Krueger        Tim Birtsas
Henry Barrera     RP     12%   37%   51%     Carlos Vasquez      Scott Wiggins     Bryan Duquette
Gil Meche         SP     10%   48%   42%       Chan Ho Park      Charlie Puleo         Jason Bere
Luke Hochevar     SP      9%   53%   39%   Todd Stottlemyre     Richard Dotson        Bryan Rekar
Patrick Keating   RP      6%   40%   53%         Eric Plunk       Eric Cammack         Jeff Zaske
Blaine Hardy      RP      4%   34%   62%       Pat Clements       Norm Montoya       Joe Crawford
Jorge Campillo    SP     15%   39%   46%            Joe Roa          Doug Bird        Dave Eiland
Bruce Chen        SP     12%   43%   44%        John Curtis       Jim Deshaies       Rigo Beltran
Jesse Chavez      RP      2%   32%   66%        Dan Wheeler           Jim Mann     Keith Atherton
Kyle Davies       SP      5%   50%   45%     Frank Seminara    Freddie Toliver    Chad Hartvigson
John Lamb         SP      6%   51%   42%         Matt Young         David West      Trevor Wilson
Buddy Baumann     SP      2%   31%   67%        Bryan Clark       Brian Snyder       Curt Simmons
Kanekoa Texeira   RP      4%   29%   67%       Casey Daigle         Dave Smith      Julio DePaula
Greg Holland      RP      4%   26%   71%         Bob Gibson         Mike Shade       Brian Bowles
Blake Wood        RP      3%   28%   69%          Jim Mecir        Aaron Small        Greg Booker
John Parrish      RP      6%   33%   61%       Greg Cadaret       Rigo Beltran     C.J. Nitkowski
Vin Mazzaro       SP      3%   41%   56%      Rich Loiselle        Jose Guzman     Bronson Arroyo
Danny Duffy       SP      6%   33%   61%       Heath Murray      Chris Pollack         Paul Boris
Bryan Bullington  SP      0%   14%   86%        Storm Davis        Mike Harkey        Peter Munro
Sean O’Sullivan   SP      2%   28%   70%    Ryan Hawblitzel         J.D. Smart     Keith Atherton
Brian Bannister   SP      1%   27%   72%        Brett Tomko       Oil Can Boyd      Scott Elarton
Matt Herges       RP      5%   21%   74%     Boom-Boom Beck          Jose Mesa          Bob Smith
Christopher Dwyer SP      2%   24%   74%      Luis Martinez        Matt Miller       Harold Allen
Josh Rupe         RP      0%   11%   89%      Mike Bumstead        Jose Segura      Victor Moreno
Victor Marte      RP      1%   11%   88%       James Warden       Jake Robbins      Jim Dougherty
Roman Colon       RP      2%   17%   81%       Danny Graves        Carl Willis       Dickie Noles
Barry Bowden      RP      1%   11%   88%         Mike James      Mike Grzanich     Jailen Peguero
Kevin Pucetas     SP      0%   11%   89%       Marcus Jones    Mickey Callaway        John Snyder
Anthony Lerew     SP      0%    6%   94%          Ben Fritz      Kip Bouknight      Chris Beasley
Edgar Osuna       SP      0%    5%   95%     Heath Phillips        Mike Ramsey       Evan MacLane
Gaby Hernandez    SP      0%    3%   97%       Jim Blueberg        Steve Olsen         Joe Ganote
Philip Humber     SP      0%    2%   98%      Tim McClaskey          Dave Ford      Mark DiFelice
Mario Santiago    SP      0%    2%   97%      Doug Waechter       Nate Cornejo          Bill King
Will Smith        SP      0%    1%   99%     Heath Phillips     Mike Prochaska          Nate Teut
Everett Teaford   SP      0%    1%   99%      Denis Boucher        Buddy Groom     Mike Prochaska
Eduardo Paulino   SP      0%    1%   99%   Larry McWilliams    Travis Anderson      Jonah Bayliss
Aaron Crow        SP      0%    0%  100%       Greg Atencio       Jared Jensen    Travis Anderson

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Billy Butler            55%      43%      17%      43%       0%       5%      17%       0%
Kila Ka’aihue            1%      21%       3%       0%       0%       7%       3%       0%
Mike Aviles             34%       2%       2%       0%       4%       0%       1%       1%
Wilson Betemit           6%       6%       5%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%
Alex Gordon              1%      12%       1%       1%       0%       1%       1%       1%
Eric Hosmer              5%       2%       5%      15%      12%       3%       1%       2%
Chris Getz              19%       9%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       6%
Mike Moustakas           4%       0%       7%      32%       0%      16%       1%       0%
William Myers            2%       8%       1%      33%       3%       1%       1%       5%
Tim Smith                9%       2%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       7%
Johnny Giavotella        6%       3%       1%       6%      21%       1%       1%       4%
Brayan Pena             15%       4%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Josh Fields              4%       3%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Mitch Maier              6%       3%       0%       0%       4%       0%       0%       0%
Clint Robinson           1%       0%       1%       2%       2%       0%       0%       0%
David Lough              2%       0%       1%       0%      30%       1%       0%       2%
Yuniesky Betancour       6%       0%       0%       4%       3%       0%       0%       0%
Scott Thorman            1%       0%       2%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Jordan Parraz            1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       2%
Ed Lucas                 1%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Salvador Perez           7%       0%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Gregor Blanco            1%       6%       0%       0%       5%       0%       0%       2%
Luke May                 1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Joaquin Arias            3%       0%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       1%
Jeff Bianchi             1%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Jarrod Dyson             1%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%      51%
Paulo Orlando            1%       0%       0%       0%      13%       0%       0%       8%
Derrick Robinson         1%       0%       0%       1%      30%       0%       0%      94%
Jason Kendall            3%       3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       3%
Lance Zawadzki           0%       0%       1%       0%       3%       0%       0%       0%
Manuel Pina              1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Cody Clark               2%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Marc Maddox              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Joakim Soria              82%        99%        96%        21%        83%
Zack Greinke              49%        98%        72%        39%        95%
Rob Tejeda                34%        78%        91%         0%        82%
Louis Coleman             17%        69%        39%         1%        66%
Tim Collins               16%        67%        92%         0%        74%
Juan Cruz                 18%        53%        81%         0%        58%
Dusty Hughes               5%        36%         4%         0%        80%
Mike Montgomery            3%        36%         2%         0%        91%
Henry Barrera             12%        38%        15%         1%        75%
Gil Meche                  1%        25%        14%         0%        53%
Luke Hochevar              1%        26%         3%         3%        58%
Patrick Keating            4%        33%        72%         0%        50%
Blaine Hardy               3%        28%         0%         1%        64%
Jorge Campillo             5%        30%         2%        23%        56%
Bruce Chen                 2%        25%         6%         1%        39%
Jesse Chavez               1%        23%        11%         2%        36%
Kyle Davies                0%        20%         2%         0%        53%
John Lamb                  1%        20%         1%         0%        86%
Buddy Baumann              1%        23%         4%         0%        77%
Kanekoa Texeira            3%        27%         0%         0%        79%
Greg Holland               3%        24%        18%         0%        66%
Blake Wood                 3%        24%         1%         0%        61%
John Parrish               6%        26%         7%         0%        71%
Vin Mazzaro                0%        13%         1%         0%        32%
Danny Duffy                1%        14%         3%         0%        53%
Bryan Bullington           0%         9%         0%         1%        48%
Sean O'Sullivan            0%        10%         0%         4%        27%
Brian Bannister            0%         6%         0%         4%        18%
Matt Herges                4%        22%         1%         4%        59%
Christopher Dwyer          0%         7%         4%         0%        75%
Josh Rupe                  0%         6%         0%         0%        72%
Victor Marte               1%         9%         2%         0%        55%
Roman Colon                2%        14%         0%         6%        55%
Barry Bowden               0%         8%         3%         0%        46%
Kevin Pucetas              0%         2%         0%         0%        59%
Anthony Lerew              0%         1%         0%         0%        42%
Edgar Osuna                0%         0%         0%         6%         8%
Gaby Hernandez             0%         0%         0%         0%         2%
Philip Humber              0%         0%         0%         1%        10%
Mario Santiago             0%         0%         0%         1%        41%
Will Smith                 0%         0%         0%         1%         4%
Everett Teaford            0%         0%         0%         0%         6%
Eduardo Paulino            0%         0%         0%         0%        15%
Aaron Crow                 0%         0%         0%         0%        10%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 25, 2010 at 06:00 PM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Boxkutter Posted: November 25, 2010 at 07:04 PM (#3697274)
This year I'm thankful that Alex Gordon still has usable ZIP numbers so I can use him next season in LF.

Oh, and those Myers numbers seem almost too good for a kid who hasn't been above A-ball yet.
   2. BobbyS Posted: November 25, 2010 at 07:28 PM (#3697283)
Oh, and those Myers numbers seem almost too good for a kid who hasn't been above A-ball yet.


I thought the same thing...basically better/equal offensive projection than Moustakas, who dominated AA and performed admirably in AA. This makes me wonder what his projection would have been if only using his AA numbers, since i'm guessing it's the plate discipline issues in AAA that hurt him here... only a .277 BABIP, but a disastrous 3.4% BB rate.
   3. cgbb Posted: November 25, 2010 at 07:47 PM (#3697293)
Happy 25th (not 21) B-day Barrera (11/25/85).
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 25, 2010 at 09:13 PM (#3697323)
Myers has a pretty big error bar. However, while Myers hasn't dominated above A-ball, he's been much better at a younger age than Moustakas was there. 2009 really drags the projection down - past years are less important for young players, but not irrelevant and while he translated at 276/328/485 at AA and 286/301/502 at AAA, he also only translated at 215/248/333 for 2009.
   5. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: November 25, 2010 at 10:06 PM (#3697339)
Geez, I've hardly heard of any of these chuckers.

Why was Gordon such a bust? Consensus?
   6. BobbyS Posted: November 25, 2010 at 10:19 PM (#3697341)
Myers has a pretty big error bar. However, while Myers hasn't dominated above A-ball, he's been much better at a younger age than Moustakas was there. 2009 really drags the projection down - past years are less important for young players, but not irrelevant and while he translated at 276/328/485 at AA and 286/301/502 at AAA, he also only translated at 215/248/333 for 2009.


Yeah, after looking back at his numbers, I figured 2009 hurt, but i didn't think it would too much, as when looking at players his age and level, the progress is more important than an oddball year within the numbers.

But actually...how come Myers has a projection after high-A, but Jaff Decker didn't get one for San Diego? He's only 10 months older than Myers, dominating A ball the year before, though didn't have the same dominating numbers for the full season or at High-A, but his 2nd half after recovering from his injury was massive...and gave him a pretty solid finishing line for the season.
   7. Greg K Posted: November 25, 2010 at 10:28 PM (#3697344)
Tim Collins: Most Fascinating Player in Baseball?
   8. RJ in TO Posted: November 25, 2010 at 11:45 PM (#3697359)
Tim Collins: Most Fascinating Player in Baseball?

I really want him to make the Royals this year, as I'd love to see him pitch.
   9. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 26, 2010 at 12:00 AM (#3697362)
I'll do one for Decker.
   10. jfish26101 Posted: November 26, 2010 at 03:04 AM (#3697395)
Can we get a DeJesus projection since the A's were published before he was acquired? Thanks Dan and I hope you are having a wonderful Thanksgiving!
   11. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 26, 2010 at 03:46 AM (#3697404)
I love Wil Myers. I said it. He's further away, but I like him a lot more than Moose, despite my moniker. He's numbers at such a young age are pretty eye-popping. I'd rather see him in the OF, as I think he'd be up pretty quickly and it would save his legs, but if he can at all stick at catcher, he'd be quite valuable. Moose, I don't know. His wacky splits concern me a bit and his plate discipline isn't all that great. He could have a rough transition to the bigs.

I know the stats tell me Billy Butler is a pretty valuable player but for some reason I can't see him turning the corner. I just always think he's going to be a .300/.360/.440 guy which is nice to have, but I don't think he'll ever be the power hitter some think he might be. A very poor man's Edgar Martinez maybe.


Why was Gordon such a bust? Consensus?


My opinion is that he was rushed to the big leagues. He was god awful the first half of his rookie season and should have been in Omaha. But they stubbornly kept him up and he probably developed bad habits/hurt his confidence. He was decent the second half of 2007 (.264/.305/.472) and average to above average in 2008, and went on a tear in August and Sept before getting hurt. Then he was hurt most of 2009 and for whatever reason became persona non grata with most in the front office and was demoted in 2010. The rumor is that he is unwilling to take advice from coaches, which I'm sure is not good, but OTOH, I don't think his numbers are really that bad. If you take away the label of "#2 overall pick" he's a perfectly cromulent third baseman. The problem is, he was anointed as the next big thing and we passed up Ryan Zimmerman and Troy Tulowitski (and Evan Longoria the next season) to get him. So people tend to focus on what he's not rather than what he is - a perfectly average third baseman. I think he tends to get more "hard hit outs" than most, but I have no data to back that up. I've never seen a guy hit so many warning track fly outs.

They should stick him at third and leave him alone for a season, but they're sticking him in the outfield, and my guess is they trade him by July.
   12. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: November 26, 2010 at 04:37 AM (#3697421)
Love that Butler projects as an average defensive 1B.
   13. Walt Davis Posted: November 26, 2010 at 04:47 AM (#3697423)
Yet those comps for Hosmer and Myers aren't too exciting.

And I bet that if, back when they were 20-21, you told folks that Betancourt would project to be about as good a hitter as Scott Thorman and Josh Fields, folks would have gotten pretty excited.

Slight drop-off in the quality of the starters after Greinke. :-)
   14. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 26, 2010 at 12:06 PM (#3697479)
Butler looks clumsy out there, but his numbers have been better than his rep. He just barely made it to AV - I have him at 3.5 runs below-average.
   15. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 26, 2010 at 12:11 PM (#3697480)
DeJesus is 271/340/397 in Oakland. EX/39, FR/83, AV/39 across the outfield AV arm (pretty much the same as last year).
   16. BobbyS Posted: November 27, 2010 at 01:46 PM (#3697922)
I'll do one for Decker.


Awesome...I was actually more curious as to if there was a reason that Myers got one, and not Decker. I would assume it's mostly just prospect status. No big deal, as neither are gonna have any impact (mostly likely) on the big league clubs.

You gonna just add Decker's to the Padres?
   17. Danny Posted: December 01, 2010 at 08:10 PM (#3700196)
DeJesus is 271/340/397 in Oakland. EX/39, FR/83, AV/39 across the outfield AV arm (pretty much the same as last year).

That's pretty much identical to Ryan Sweeney's projection (.287/.343/.389, 98 OPS+, VG/AV/VG), which would be pretty disappointing from DeJesus (116 OPS+ over the past three years).
   18. Tuque Posted: December 01, 2010 at 10:10 PM (#3700281)
ZiPS have any explanation for what the hell happened to Zack Greinke last season?
   19. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 01, 2010 at 11:23 PM (#3700365)
Yet those comps for Hosmer and Myers aren't too exciting.


In Hosmer's case, the system doesn't take into account the Lasik surgery after 2009. With Myers, we basically have one year of data, and he could go in any direction from here. The fact that you have a 20 YO and a 21 YO with OPS+ projections in the mid-90s *in the majors* is what would get my attention.

-- MWE
   20. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 01, 2010 at 11:33 PM (#3700374)

ZiPS have any explanation for what the hell happened to Zack Greinke last season?


Lack of interest?
   21. Cutter Posted: December 07, 2010 at 12:22 AM (#3704398)
ZiPS have any explanation for what the hell happened to Zack Greinke last season?


His curve was much less effective, which may have contributed somewhat.
   22. rlc Posted: December 15, 2010 at 10:56 AM (#3711155)
Got Melky?
   23. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 23, 2011 at 03:18 AM (#3734911)
Are there separate KC projections for the Brewer acquisitions -- Escobar, Cain, Jeffress?

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