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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

2011 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeheim Angels

The Angels are a team essentially in water-treading mode.  Bourjos’s defense is good enough that he’ll be a solid player in the majors and Mike Trout is ridiculous, but 2 of the Angels’ best offensive players, Hunter and Abreu, are getting up there in years.  The rotation is solid, though the decline of Scott Kazmir is very sad; let him be a cautionary tale for any that thinks your young star ace is guaranteed to continue to be awesome (if Mark Prior and the other 730 previous examples weren’t enough).  The team still needs him as there’s really not a lot of pitching depth in the upper minors (pitchers like Chatwood and Richards should have better projections in future years as they’re not ready yet, though there’s little star potential).

Los Angeheim isn’t going to catch up on the Rangers just sitting around, but there’s still enough talent to make this a .500 team.  One thing the Angels really need to do is channel the nearly-free, amazing bullpens Bill Stoneman used to put together (like the Rays did last year).  Last year’s 4.03 bullpen ERA was pretty disapponting for a team that used to find 130 ERA+ relievers easier than Dayton Moore finds sabermetric punching bags.

Am I a bad person for hoping Rodriguez’s control gets worse so I can call him BB-Rod?

Next up:  White Sox

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Mike Napoli       R    C    29   .251 .336 .489 115 366  54  92  19   1  22  58  41 107   5   3  117
Torii Hunter      R    CF   35   .273 .340 .460 134 506  72 138  30   1  21  81  49  97  13   8  112
Kendry Morales    B    1B   28   .283 .330 .476 102 378  48 107  20   1  17  63  24  68   1   4  113
Bobby Abreu       L    RF   37   .263 .349 .428 139 528  79 139  32   2  17  79  71 114  21  10  107
Howie Kendrick    R    2B   27   .279 .315 .415 143 544  67 152  33   4  11  68  24  90  15   5   93
Mike Trout        R    CF   19   .274 .345 .375 156 632 106 173  26   7   8  54  64 120  46  19   93
Juan Rivera       R    LF   32   .268 .315 .431 113 392  49 105  19   0  15  58  27  50   1   2   97
Maicer Izturis    B    3B   30   .273 .333 .386  89 308  45  84  16   2   5  43  28  35   9   4   92
Peter Bourjos     R    CF   24   .259 .300 .401 150 606  89 157  21  13  13  55  31 127  35   9   86
Alberto Callaspo  B    3B   28   .274 .319 .396 137 500  62 137  26   4   9  53  34  43   3   2   90
Hank Conger       B    C    23   .261 .331 .381 142 517  59 135  26   3  10  57  55  88   1   2   90
Erick Aybar       B    SS   27   .270 .318 .366 135 492  67 133  20   6   5  43  30  67  17   7   83
Chris Pettit      R    LF   26   .252 .305 .365  77 282  35  71  16   2   4  30  16  56   9   1   79
Mark Trumbo       R    1B   25   .248 .295 .412 156 605  69 150  30   3  21  85  40 148   5   6   87
Bobby Wilson      R    C    28   .250 .300 .365  77 244  22  61  13   0   5  32  17  48   1   0   77
Luis Jimenez      R    3B   23   .251 .280 .407 145 578  84 145  40   7  12  73  20  93  18  13   81
Alexi Amarista    L    2B   22   .267 .308 .365 156 636  82 170  31   8   5  57  34  84  25  19   79
Freddy Sandoval   B    3B   28   .252 .308 .356  75 298  36  75  15   2   4  43  23  51   5   3   77
Kevin Frandsen    R    3B   29   .255 .309 .347  97 329  46  84  16   1   4  25  17  30   4   2   75
Cory Aldridge     L    LF   32   .233 .289 .382  85 309  35  72  15   2   9  44  24  94   1   2   78
Jeremy Moore      L    CF   24   .239 .283 .377 142 531  62 127  16   9  13  55  31 185  20  12   75
Terry Evans       R    RF   29   .237 .276 .369 114 439  56 104  22   3  10  48  22 122  14   6   71
Kevin Melillo     L    LF   29   .223 .293 .359 102 373  48  83  18   3   9  40  38  78   5   3   75
Brandon Wood      R    3B   26   .222 .272 .370 126 432  48  96  17   1  15  47  27 127   4   1   70
Luis Figueroa     B    SS   37   .260 .289 .337  76 285  25  74  12   2   2  27  12  18   1   1   67
Drew Meyer        L    2B   29   .231 .295 .315  91 321  37  74  14   2   3  26  30  69   4   1   63
Reggie Willits    B    LF   30   .235 .320 .282 106 238  34  56   9   1   0  15  29  48   8   4   63
Jeff Mathis       R    C    28   .212 .270 .332  89 274  32  58  10   1   7  33  20  83   3   1   60
Andrew Romine     B    SS   25   .235 .299 .293 138 519  64 122  16   4   2  32  43 107  24  12   60
Nate Sutton       L    2B   28   .235 .290 .300 124 463  54 109  16   4   2  34  34  91  13   7   59
Robb Quinlan      R    1B   34   .231 .289 .286  58 147  14  34   5   0   1  11  11  30   2   1   55
Kevin Richardson  R    C    30   .196 .242 .346  69 240  20  47   9   0   9  23  12  99   0   0   56
Gil Velazquez     R    SS   31   .225 .264 .308  89 289  27  65  13   1   3  21  14  63   3   2   53
Nick Gorneault    R    LF   32   .202 .258 .320 109 372  41  75  15   1   9  41  27 114   5   5   54
Brian Walker      L    C    25   .213 .250 .322  62 211  14  45   8   0   5  29   9  72   2   3   52

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Mike Napoli              FR
Torii Hunter                                                          FR/37  VG/116
Kendry Morales                AV/92                                          FR/108
Bobby Abreu                                                   FR/81          PO/137
Howie Kendrick               AV/119   AV/78
Mike Trout                                                    VG/50   AV/59
Juan Rivera                  AV/118                          AV/113          AV/113
Maicer Izturis                        AV/81   AV/99   AV/78
Peter Bourjos                                                        EX/101
Alberto Callaspo                     FR/121   AV/67  FR/134
Hank Conger              AV
Erick Aybar                                          AV/107
Chris Pettit                                                 AV/124          AV/111
Mark Trumbo                  AV/150                                          AV/109
Bobby Wilson             VG  FR/101
Luis Jimenez                                 FR/134
Alexi Amarista                       AV/108
Freddy Sandoval              AV/132  PO/114  AV/101
Kevin Frandsen               AV/113  AV/110  AV/118  FR/138
Cory Aldridge                                                FR/134          AV/124
Jeremy Moore                                                 AV/143  AV/168  AV/143
Terry Evans                                                  PO/151  PO/124  PO/151
Kevin Melillo                VG/172  AV/125  AV/127          AV/109          AV/144
Brandon Wood                 AV/108  FR/118   AV/99
Luis Figueroa                         FR/95           FR/89
Drew Meyer                            AV/98  AV/108  FR/133  AV/104          AV/104
Reggie Willits                                                VG/69   AV/69  AV/115
Jeff Mathis              FR
Andrew Romine                                        AV/120
Nate Sutton                          AV/127  VG/122  PO/125  AV/110  FR/131  AV/110
Robb Quinlan                 AV/112          PO/123          FR/108          FR/114
Kevin Richardson         FR
Gil Velazquez                AV/111  FR/109  FR/107  FR/117
Nick Gorneault                                                AV/96           AV/96
Brian Walker             FR

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Jered Weaver      R      28     3.53    15    8   32   32   201.3  182   79   22   54  195   119
Dan Haren         R      30     3.57    15    9   33   33   224.3  216   89   25   45  213   117
Ervin Santana     R      28     4.23    12   10   30   30   195.7  196   92   26   56  164    99
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Joel Pineiro      R      32     4.44     8    8   23   23   146.0  162   72   16   29   84    94
Trevor Bell       R      24     4.69     6    6   31   18   117.0  132   61   11   38   73    89
Scott Kazmir      L      27     5.07     9   12   28   28   154.3  158   87   24   68  123    83
Matt Palmer       R      32     5.12     5    6   28   13    95.0  101   54   11   53   64    82
Garrett Richards  R      23     6.18     5   12   26   26   126.7  155   87   19   63   81    68
Tyler Chatwood    R      21     6.31     6   13   26   25   124.0  152   87   15   84   65    66
Trevor Reckling   L      22     6.50     6   13   26   26   134.3  166   97   18   93   77    64
Anthony Ortega    R      25     6.66     2    5   13    8    52.7   67   39   10   27   26    63

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Scott Downs       L      35     3.42     4    2   59    0    55.3   51   21    5   17   46   123
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Jason Bulger      R      32     4.09     2    1   44    0    44.0   38   20    5   26   50   102
Rich Thompson     R      26     4.10     2    1   29    0    41.7   40   19    5   16   37   102
Hisanori TakahashiL      36     4.16     8    6   47   11   106.0  106   49   13   35   95   101
Kevin Jepsen      R      26     4.27     4    4   65    0    65.3   64   31    5   34   62    98
Michael Kohn      R      24     4.34     4    4   57    0    58.0   52   28    5   38   58    96
Jordan Walden     R      23     4.36     2    1   63    0    64.0   64   31    6   31   54    96
Fernando Rodney   R      34     4.53     3    3   60    0    59.7   59   30    6   32   52    93
Ryan Z. Braun     R      30     4.73     1    2   36    0    40.0   41   21    4   22   31    89
Scot Shields      R      35     4.74     2    2   38    0    38.0   37   20    5   23   34    88
Francisco M. RodriR      28     4.88     4    4   49    0    66.3   69   36    7   35   48    86
Ysmael Carmona    R      26     5.63     3    5   46    0    54.3   55   34    6   51   42    74
Bobby Cassevah    R      25     5.81     3    5   55    0    69.7   84   45    7   43   36    72
Loek Van Mil      R      26     6.81     1    3   30    0    35.7   45   27    5   29   19    61

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Bobby Abreu          .288  .386  .472  2594  9523  1616  2739   636    65   330  1532  1556  2021   434   124
Torii Hunter         .271  .328  .458  2261  8421  1201  2278   487    34   341  1308   657  1574   221   105
Howie Kendrick       .279  .313  .413  1654  6260   765  1745   391    41   122   776   269   981   149    92
Mike Napoli          .244  .327  .457  1505  4762   660  1162   235    12   252   696   517  1253    64   107
Erick Aybar          .267  .314  .363  1469  5199   681  1389   212    60    56   456   304   666   145    81
Juan Rivera          .274  .322  .445  1157  3871   487  1061   200     3   152   581   268   474    14   101
Kendry Morales       .276  .325  .465  1029  3723   464  1027   204     8   162   601   252   629    12   108
Maicer Izturis       .270  .333  .385  1026  3467   504   937   180    28    54   461   317   374   105    90

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Dan Haren          194  147    0    3.78  480  470     3109 3070 1305  371  675 2763    113
Jered Weaver       187  120    0    3.68  426  427     2669 2467 1091  314  740 2487    116
Ervin Santana      157  132    0    4.40  381  378     2426 2455 1187  326  743 1976     97
Joel Pineiro       136  126    6    4.41  416  346     2284 2455 1118  254  586 1379     97
Scott Kazmir        92   95    0    4.40  257  256     1446 1394  707  181  659 1341     99

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Mike Napoli       C      56%  27%  10%   6%   2%       Steve Yeager       Chris Hoiles    Mike MacFarlane
Torii Hunter      CF     31%  24%  25%  14%   6%      Dave Winfield     Dave Henderson         Al Simmons
Kendry Morales    1B      4%  19%  21%  32%  24%       Larry Sheets        Xavier Nady        Matt LeCroy
Bobby Abreu       RF     12%  21%  18%  21%  28%       Paul O’Neill    John Vander Wal     Brady Anderson
Howie Kendrick    2B     16%  17%  19%  23%  25%         Gene Alley      Carlos Garcia        Mike Aviles
Mike Trout        CF     12%  16%  27%  26%  20%     Richie Ashburn     Rocco Baldelli         Tim Raines
Juan Rivera       LF      2%   7%  13%  26%  52%        Brick Smith       Larry Sheets       Glenn Wilson
Maicer Izturis    3B      5%  12%  19%  26%  38%          Joe Randa      Desi Relaford         Greg Dobbs
Peter Bourjos     CF      7%  12%  25%  30%  26%        Angel Pagan       Carlos Gomez     Santiago Perez
Alberto Callaspo  3B      2%   7%  15%  27%  50%      Jeff Treadway     Keith Lockhart     Ramon Martinez
Hank Conger       C       5%  20%  26%  32%  17%          John Jaso        Kurt Suzuki      Butch Wynegar
Erick Aybar       SS      5%  13%  28%  30%  24%      Cesar Izturis    Cristian Guzman        Bill Spiers
Chris Pettit      LF      0%   2%   4%  13%  81%          Rod Allen        Ruben Mateo       Omar Infante
Mark Trumbo       1B      0%   1%   2%  14%  82%         Leo Daigle       Julio Zuleta      Craig Brazell
Bobby Wilson      C       2%   6%  13%  31%  47%      Wyatt Toregas      Mike DiFelice       Geronimo Gil
Luis Jimenez      3B      2%   1%   5%  13%  79%       Olmedo Saenz         Juan Uribe      German Rivera
Alexi Amarista    2B      1%   2%   5%  14%  77%      William Suero         Tony Abreu    Joseph Thurston
Freddy Sandoval   3B      0%   1%   5%  14%  80%         Mike Tyson       Doug Strange       Ken Caminiti
Kevin Frandsen    3B      1%   2%   4%  11%  83%    Ever Magallanes    Robert Eenhoorn      Bien Figueroa
Cory Aldridge     LF      0%   1%   2%   5%  93%       Armando Rios       Brian Lesher        Dann Howitt
Jeremy Moore      CF      1%   2%   7%  16%  73%    Herm Winningham      Todd Dunwoody       Tyler Colvin
Terry Evans       RF      0%   0%   1%   3%  97%        Sean Barker   Darrell Nicholas      Shawn Garrett
Kevin Melillo     LF      0%   1%   3%   8%  87%       Phil Dauphin        Nate Murphy       Marc Sagmoen
Brandon Wood      3B      0%   1%   3%   7%  89%      Seth Johnston      Mike Groppuso         Ryan Minor
Luis Figueroa     SS      1%   2%   6%  14%  76%        Rey Sanchez     Casey Candaele         Larry Bowa
Drew Meyer        2B      0%   0%   1%   3%  96%      Frank Kellner       Danny Solano       Leo Durocher
Reggie Willits    LF      0%   0%   0%   0%  99%      Damon Mashore        Jose Flores       Nick Alvarez
Jeff Mathis       C       1%   1%   2%   7%  89%    Paul Chiaffredo  Francisco Morales   Louis Santangelo
Andrew Romine     SS      0%   1%   2%   7%  90%        Tommy Hinzo     Carson Carroll      Freddie Bynum
Nate Sutton       2B      0%   0%   0%   2%  98%       Derek Wathan  Kevin Castleberry          John Holt
Robb Quinlan      1B      0%   0%   0%   0%  99%      Frank Charles       Dusty Wathan       Felipe Zayas
Kevin Richardson  C       1%   1%   2%   6%  90%        Kevin Brown    Paul Chiaffredo      Jayhawk Owens
Gil Velazquez     SS      0%   0%   1%   3%  96%     Chris Petersen        Juan Castro         Kevin Baez
Nick Gorneault    LF      0%   0%   0%   0% 100%         Jeff Guiel           Lou List       Damon Buford
Brian Walker      C       0%   0%   0%   0% 100%       Tommy Duenas    Wilfredo Tejada       Mike Russell

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Scott Downs       RP      54%    39%     7%       Gary Lavelle         Tug McGraw      Greg Swindell
Jered Weaver      SP      67%    27%     6%       Josh Beckett        Jim Bunning       Mike Mussina
Dan Haren         SP      63%    31%     6%       Mike Mussina       Aaron Harang         Ben Sheets
Jason Bulger      RP      23%    43%    34%         Ryne Duren         Mark Clear     Jason Kershner
Rich Thompson     RP      21%    44%    36%      Justin Speier    Kyle Farnsworth   Scott Strickland
Hisanori TakahashiRP      12%    51%    37%     Rick Honeycutt      Darren Oliver          Ron Mahay
Ervin Santana     SP      23%    62%    15%        Brett Tomko   Dennis Eckersley      Pedro Astacio
Kevin Jepsen      RP      12%    50%    37%     Frank Williams         Jim Stoops       Ryan Bukvich
Michael Kohn      RP      13%    46%    41%       Mark Littell       Brian Bruney       Ryan Bukvich
Joel Pineiro      SP      21%    49%    30%        Dave Eiland            Joe Roa         Brad Radke
Fernando Rodney   RP       7%    39%    53%       Toby Borland Heathcliff Slocumb       Tim Stoddard
Trevor Bell       SP      13%    45%    41%          John Hope     Jake Westbrook     Jim Neidlinger
Ryan Z. Braun     RP       7%    32%    61%       Marc Wilkins    David Holdridge        Colter Bean
Scot Shields      RP       9%    26%    65%       Rich DeLucia         Ryne Duren       Tim Stoddard
Francisco M. RodriRP       2%    27%    71%         Jim Stoops        Marcus Gwyn     Ryan Henderson
Scott Kazmir      SP       2%    31%    67%        Dennis Cook         David West          Cliff Lee
Matt Palmer       SP       1%    18%    81%         Bill Zuber  Juan Eichelberger     Mike Heathcott
Jordan Walden     RP       2%    15%    84%         Alan Mills     Anthony Chavez        Mike Madden
Ysmael Carmona    RP       1%     8%    91%          Bill Bene         Jeff Smith Heathcliff Slocumb
Bobby Cassevah    RP       0%     6%    94%     Barry Hertzler         Ron Graves         Sean Green
Garrett Richards  SP       0%     2%    98%      Matt Achilles       Brian Rogers    Travis Anderson
Tyler Chatwood    SP       0%     1%    99%        Edwin Morel        Jake Joseph       Chad Paronto
Trevor Reckling   SP       0%     1%    99%      Mike Wodnicki       Keith Seiler      Allan Ramirez
Anthony Ortega    SP       0%     3%    97%      David Walters   Larry McWilliams        Bryan Corey
Loek Van Mil      RP       0%     2%    98%           Al Osuna         Sean Green         Matt Smith

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Mike Napoli              5%      12%      41%       0%       0%      13%      13%       0%
Torii Hunter            14%      11%      19%       3%       0%      12%       8%       5%
Kendry Morales          25%       5%      25%       0%       0%       2%       5%       0%
Bobby Abreu              8%      17%       7%       6%       1%       4%       4%      17%
Howie Kendrick          20%       1%       3%       6%       4%       2%       1%       6%
Mike Trout              11%      12%       0%       2%      28%       0%       0%      93%
Juan Rivera             10%       1%       4%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%
Maicer Izturis          17%      11%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       1%
Peter Bourjos            4%       0%       1%       0%      69%       1%       0%      71%
Alberto Callaspo        13%       2%       1%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Hank Conger              5%       6%       0%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Erick Aybar             12%       2%       0%       0%      11%       0%       0%       6%
Chris Pettit             5%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Mark Trumbo              0%       0%       1%       3%       2%      10%       0%       0%
Bobby Wilson             5%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Luis Jimenez             2%       0%       2%      28%      21%       2%       1%       9%
Alexi Amarista           8%       0%       0%       6%      32%       0%       0%      30%
Freddy Sandoval          5%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Kevin Frandsen           5%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Cory Aldridge            1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jeremy Moore             1%       0%       1%       0%      44%       1%       0%       5%
Terry Evans              0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Kevin Melillo            0%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Brandon Wood             0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Luis Figueroa           10%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Drew Meyer               0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Reggie Willits           2%       5%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jeff Mathis              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Andrew Romine            0%       0%       0%       0%       5%       0%       0%      22%
Nate Sutton              0%       0%       0%       0%       4%       0%       0%       1%
Robb Quinlan             3%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Kevin Richardson         0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Gil Velazquez            0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Nick Gorneault           0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brian Walker             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Jered Weaver              32%        88%        78%        21%        58%
Dan Haren                 25%        86%        72%        75%        57%
Jason Bulger              17%        58%        94%         0%        69%
Rich Thompson             14%        56%        44%         4%        62%
Hisanori Takahashi        10%        54%        55%         6%        45%
Ervin Santana              3%        51%        28%         7%        33%
Kevin Jepsen               9%        49%        64%         0%        82%
Michael Kohn               9%        51%        76%         0%        71%
Joel Pineiro               6%        42%         1%        74%        55%
Fernando Rodney            5%        32%        41%         0%        74%
Trevor Bell                3%        29%         4%         7%        77%
Ryan Z. Braun              7%        30%        17%         0%        58%
Scot Shields               5%        26%        48%         0%        51%
Francisco M. Rodri         1%        23%         4%         0%        60%
Scott Kazmir               0%         9%        14%         0%        11%
Matt Palmer                1%        13%         7%         0%        64%
Jordan Walden              1%        12%        13%         0%        64%
Ysmael Carmona             1%         6%        12%         0%        68%
Bobby Cassevah             0%         3%         0%         0%        73%
Garrett Richards           0%         0%         0%         0%        16%
Tyler Chatwood             0%         0%         0%         0%        48%
Trevor Reckling            0%         0%         0%         0%        34%
Anthony Ortega             0%         1%         0%         0%        17%
Loek Van Mil               0%         1%         0%         0%        41%


All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Baltimore Orioles
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
Houston Astros
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers
Minnesota Twins
San Francisco Giants
Seattle Mariners

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 19, 2011 at 04:14 PM | 67 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. threepointpi Posted: January 19, 2011 at 04:31 PM (#3732605)
No 1B rating for Napoli?
   2. Rays&Sox; Posted: January 19, 2011 at 04:35 PM (#3732608)
Wow, that's a low error rate for Trout.
   3. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: January 19, 2011 at 04:42 PM (#3732611)
Having a catcher, whom your manager refuses to give massive playing time, as your best offensive player (rate wise) has to be a red flag, no?
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 19, 2011 at 04:43 PM (#3732612)
Wow, that's a low error rate for Trout.

Yeah, he's only made 2 errors in the minors.
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 19, 2011 at 04:43 PM (#3732613)
Napoli at 1B will be AV/140.
   6. threepointpi Posted: January 19, 2011 at 04:51 PM (#3732617)
Thanks Dan!
   7. caprules Posted: January 19, 2011 at 04:51 PM (#3732618)
I don't remember seeing a prospect so high up on a team's offensive projection. I realize this says more about the projected Angel's hitters than Trout, but how often has a 19 year old had a case that he deserves to be a starter since ZiPs started?
   8. Josh Posted: January 19, 2011 at 05:00 PM (#3732627)
Thanks, Dan.

FYI: Downs makes ODDIBE, but not the projection.
   9. Frisco Cali Posted: January 19, 2011 at 05:03 PM (#3732631)
Thanks for the numbers Dan.

How does Segura project?
   10. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 19, 2011 at 05:03 PM (#3732632)
OK, System of a Downs is up.
   11. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 19, 2011 at 05:14 PM (#3732646)
I realize this says more about the projected Angel's hitters than Trout, but how often has a 19 year old had a case that he deserves to be a starter since ZiPs started?

I can't think of any. I'd be surprised if that wasn't the best projection for a 19-year-old that I've ever done.
   12. caprules Posted: January 19, 2011 at 05:42 PM (#3732669)
Thanks for the answer, Dan. It must be rare enough to even list a projections for a 19 year old.
   13. Dan Posted: January 19, 2011 at 05:59 PM (#3732673)
So Jeff Mathis got a $1.7M dollar 1 year contract for a season in which ZiPS is projecting a 60 OPS+. And while there's more to defense for a catcher than just throwing, his arm only rates as fair. Scioscia's fetish for this guy puts even Dusty Baker's exploits with Neifi Perez to shame. At least Neifi was a good defender.
   14. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: January 19, 2011 at 06:01 PM (#3732676)
An OF of Trout in LF, Bourjos in CF, and Hunter in RF could be 2009 Mariners-esque.
   15. Dan Posted: January 19, 2011 at 06:02 PM (#3732678)
Holy crap that bullpen is awful. Downs is the only guy above average, and Rodney (the projected closer) is only expected to pitch to a 93 ERA+.

I'm pretty surprised how down ZiPS is on Morales, Pineiro and Santana too.

It's hard for me to see this team finishing higher than third in the AL West unless a few guys really blow away their projections.

How many more wins is ZiPS projecting for the Angels than the Mariners Dan? I can't imagine it's more than 5 or so after seeing both teams' projections.
   16. Willie Mayspedester Posted: January 19, 2011 at 06:20 PM (#3732695)
So do they try and do a Longoria type extension on Trout from day one?
   17. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 19, 2011 at 06:20 PM (#3732697)
How many more wins is ZiPS projecting for the Angels than the Mariners Dan? I can't imagine it's more than 5 or so after seeing both teams' projections.

I haven't run any sims (not everyone's done), but from the projections and some playing time estimates, I have Mariners around 70-72 and the Angels around 78-80.
   18. andrewberg Posted: January 19, 2011 at 06:32 PM (#3732704)
I think I would take the under on Abreu for this year; his bat looked slow and weak last year. Nonetheless, it's going to be a travesty when he goes one and done on HOF balloting in 8 years or so. He's not a first ballot player (whatever that means) or anything, but I'd rather see him in than out and I can't imagine a scenario in which he gets serious consideration.
   19. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: January 19, 2011 at 06:55 PM (#3732717)
Weaver has more GS than G in his extrapolated career stats.
   20. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 19, 2011 at 07:05 PM (#3732725)
Vox, thanks for the catch.

Turns out for GS, I had an extra ROUND in there before the adding (which should not have been there)
   21. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 19, 2011 at 07:06 PM (#3732726)
Nonetheless, it's going to be a travesty when he goes one and done on HOF balloting in 8 years or so.

Sadly, there will probably be a minimum of 10 travesties or so in HOF balloting over the next decade!
   22. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 19, 2011 at 07:21 PM (#3732739)
Who is the closer on this team?
   23. andrewberg Posted: January 19, 2011 at 07:32 PM (#3732746)
Who is the closer on this team?


I hear Gary Bell is available.
   24. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: January 19, 2011 at 07:33 PM (#3732747)
Fernando Rodney is slated to be the closer right now. That should be... whatever, man.
   25. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 19, 2011 at 07:54 PM (#3732761)
Rodney's a worse closer than Shelley Levene.
   26. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: January 19, 2011 at 08:29 PM (#3732795)
No question. The Angel bully has become pretty feeble after being so good for so long.
   27. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 19, 2011 at 08:44 PM (#3732811)
As mediocre as this team looks here, it looks like it still projects better than Oakland....and with Trout the upside's a lot higher too.
   28. Dr. Vaux Posted: January 19, 2011 at 08:51 PM (#3732818)
It's funny that if Trout pans out, the Angels will have two great hitters in franchise history named Salmon and Trout. If only Kevin Bass had played for the Angels and been good.
   29. North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan Posted: January 19, 2011 at 09:19 PM (#3732835)
It's funny that if Trout pans out, the Angels will have two great hitters in franchise history named Salmon and Trout. If only Kevin Bass had played for the Angels and been good.


They should trade for Mike Carp.
   30. Josh Posted: January 19, 2011 at 09:39 PM (#3732845)
Rodney's a worse closer than Shelley Levene.
I read this as Shelley Long ... then nodded in agreement.
   31. Skinner! Posted: January 19, 2011 at 09:55 PM (#3732859)
As mediocre as this team looks here, it looks like it still projects better than Oakland....and with Trout the upside's a lot higher too.


The A's offensive projections did not include DeJesus, Willingham and Matsui, so with them I think the upside for this year is better. Willingham has a 117 OPS+ from Washington, but I couldn't find projections for DeJesus or Matsui on their respective former teams. Maybe those should be added to the A's projections.

For pitching, the A's also now have Balfour and Fuentes, who both have very good OPS+ numbers. Given all that, the A's look like the better squad on paper for this year at least.
   32. North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan Posted: January 19, 2011 at 09:56 PM (#3732862)
Rodney's a worse closer than Shelley Levene.


He just needs good leads! The leads are ####!
   33. Austin Posted: January 19, 2011 at 09:58 PM (#3732865)
It's completely baffling to me that teams keep giving Rodney high-leverage jobs. I understand that the whole "proven closer" thing dies hard, but when I watched baseball before becoming acquainted with the analytical side of the game, my impression of Rodney was only ever overwhelmingly as an extremely shaky guy whom no manager could possibly trust - he always seemed very "hittable" and of course he walked everyone in sight. Furthermore, it always seemed like the managers didn't trust him, which makes it even more confusing that they keep coming back to him as a closer.
   34. bigboy1234 Posted: January 19, 2011 at 10:14 PM (#3732884)
I realize this says more about the projected Angel's hitters than Trout, but how often has a 19 year old had a case that he deserves to be a starter since ZiPs started?

I can't think of any. I'd be surprised if that wasn't the best projection for a 19-year-old that I've ever done.

For what it's worth, Wil Myers who is a few months older than Trout, but they are from the same HS draft class got a projection of a 96 OPS+. That along with this Trout projection have to be one of the best ever for a first full season HS kid.
   35. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 19, 2011 at 11:23 PM (#3732925)
Request: reliever Jeremy Berg.

NDFA from High Point in '09 ago who dropped his arm slot and found surprising success - career ERA of 1.36 in 91.2 inn (24 in AA), w/ 67 h, 2 hr, 13 bb, 97 k. Not a lot of pro experience and somewhat of a longshot, but could be their next Darren O'Day.
   36. sardonic Posted: January 19, 2011 at 11:46 PM (#3732933)
Rodney's a worse closer than Shelley Levene.


He just needs good leads! The leads are ####!


Well done, sir.
   37. Walt Davis Posted: January 19, 2011 at 11:47 PM (#3732935)
An OF of Trout in LF, Bourjos in CF, and Hunter in RF could be 2009 Mariners-esque.

Hell, trade Hunter and play with 5 infielders. :-)
   38. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: January 20, 2011 at 12:51 AM (#3732961)
An OF of Trout in LF, Bourjos in CF, and Hunter in RF could be 2009 Mariners-esque.
6th best outfield?
   39. villageidiom Posted: January 20, 2011 at 03:20 AM (#3733043)
Abreu's #1 comp made me smile. Maybe if he went back to the Yankees they'd let him wear #21.
   40. BobbyS Posted: January 21, 2011 at 04:01 PM (#3733927)
Can you add Hainley Statia?
   41. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 21, 2011 at 04:23 PM (#3733941)
Statia hasn't signed with anybody yet, has he?
   42. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: January 21, 2011 at 11:43 PM (#3734287)
MLBTR has Robothal saying that Napoli is going to the Blue Jays. No word on who the Angels are getting back.
   43. Dan Posted: January 21, 2011 at 11:52 PM (#3734293)
Robo's twitter on the news

So now the Angels have traded away their best hitter, and one of only 4 hitters projected to be above average. This offense looks awful now.
   44. Frisco Cali Posted: January 22, 2011 at 12:21 AM (#3734308)
From the CBS Sportsline article...

On the Angels' side, this move could open up a return of Vladimir Guerrero or Manny Ramirez -- or even Scott Podsednik

3 peas in a pod.
   45. Dan Posted: January 22, 2011 at 12:24 AM (#3734311)
Apparently the Angels are getting Vernon Wells as part of this deal. You can't make this #### up.
   46. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: January 22, 2011 at 12:26 AM (#3734313)
Wow. If this wasn't a Friday evening this place would be about to crash.
   47. Willie Mayspedester Posted: January 22, 2011 at 12:40 AM (#3734321)
Yes! That would set them back for years.
   48. Walt Davis Posted: January 22, 2011 at 01:01 AM (#3734335)
And Juan Rivera in the latest update. Surely there's billions going from the Jays to the Angels ... right?

Otherwise I hereby declare Alex Anthopoulos the greatest GM in baseball history.* Or the soon-to-be-former Angels GM the worst.

*I'm so impressed I went to the trouble of looking up his last name rather than just calling him AA.
   49. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: January 22, 2011 at 01:04 AM (#3734336)
I think it's funny that AA is turning out to be the gm a lot of us thought JP would be.
   50. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: January 22, 2011 at 01:09 AM (#3734339)
Seeing rumors that Drabek is going to the Angels while Rivera is going to Jays.

That would make things a little more palatable.
   51. Guy LeDouche Posted: January 22, 2011 at 01:11 AM (#3734340)
Guy LeDouche is hearing Vernon Wells for Napoli
   52. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: January 22, 2011 at 01:13 AM (#3734343)
The Rivera part seems to be confirmed. No word on Drabek. Or the 25 mil.
   53. ursus arctos Posted: January 22, 2011 at 01:19 AM (#3734348)
AA to take over the Leafs if Rogers manages to buy them from the Teachers' Pension Plan.
   54. Walt Davis Posted: January 22, 2011 at 01:22 AM (#3734349)
Drabek would make it more palatable.

Not clear what this means for Trout/Bourjos. Trout could use another year anyway but Hunter is signed through 2012 and Wells until 2525. I suppose Hunter could move to DH in 2012.
   55. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 22, 2011 at 01:23 AM (#3734350)
( deleted )
   56. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: January 22, 2011 at 01:27 AM (#3734351)
Rosenthal reporting no Drabek, but cash to Angels. Also reporting Rivera and Napoli.

It's all about the cash- if its 40 million or so- I could live with it.
   57. still hunting for a halo-red october (in Delphi) Posted: January 22, 2011 at 01:32 AM (#3734354)
I feel sick.
   58. Good cripple hitter Posted: January 22, 2011 at 01:39 AM (#3734356)
I don't know how to feel about this. Getting Napoli is fantastic, because he's been one of my favourite "Free Player X" guys. Getting rid of (some?) of Wells' contract might also be good (depending on how Rogers spends the money). But it would be a bitter pill to swallow if the centerpiece of the Roy Halladay trade was essentially traded for salary relief from Wells' contract.

Edit: If it's no Drabek, I'm over the moon.
   59. deb Posted: January 22, 2011 at 01:59 AM (#3734364)
This is great news, Mathis as our primary catcher! what more could a fan ask for?

gad.
   60. Sheer Tim Foli Posted: January 22, 2011 at 02:13 AM (#3734371)
From mlbtraderumours.com
6:47pm: The Jays might not be sending any money to Los Angeles in the trade, tweets Shi Davidi of The Canadian Press.
   61. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: January 22, 2011 at 02:49 AM (#3734408)
6:47pm: The Jays might not be sending any money to Los Angeles in the trade, tweets Shi Davidi of The Canadian Press.

This would actually not surprise me. I can see the angels FO rationalizing this as getting a Crawford-like player for less years and money AND they get rid of 10 million bucks of what they consider dead weight.

Anyone want to give odds on Napoli getting flipped to Boston?
   62. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: January 22, 2011 at 04:28 AM (#3734494)
So... only 40 million dollars away from being a decent move.
   63. zenbitz Posted: January 24, 2011 at 09:27 PM (#3735501)
DAN THIS TRANSACTION DEMANDS A GIF!!!
   64. CircleChange11 Posted: January 27, 2011 at 05:53 PM (#3737542)
Can someone briefly explain how to interpret the defense values?

From what I gather the first value (Ex, VG, FR, etc) refers to the player's arm quality, and the 2nd value (numerical) refers to their range?

At times it appears that the lower the number means a better fielder. Other times, it appears that a number closer to 100 is the better fielder. I know the number corresponds with the rating system in DMB. I've read the FAQ, searched Google, and cannot find a thorough explanation for what the values represent specifically.

Example: "FR/37"

Fair = Arm, 37 = ?

Thanks in advance.
   65. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 27, 2011 at 06:20 PM (#3737563)
First number is range w/ roughly a 6 or 7 run gap b/w bands. Second is error rate - indexed to 100, which is avg for the position. A "200" commits twice as many errors as a guy with a "100".
Catcher values are arm values.
In the game, outfielders also get arm values and catchers also get range, error, and pb values.
   66. sportznut Posted: February 17, 2011 at 01:37 AM (#3752040)
Dan, just noticed this. If you're using Brandon Wood this year, you have problems, but he played 185.1 innings at SS last year, and none at 2B, yet has a rating at 2B and none at short.

I'm assuming this is a mistake of sorts.

What would his SS rating be?
   67. LB813 Posted: February 19, 2011 at 04:03 PM (#3754057)
can we get a gabe dehoyos projection?

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