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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, December 27, 2010

2011 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeles Dodgers

Rather than being a big splashy disappointment like the Mariners, Cubs, or Mets, the Dodgers’ disappointing year in 2010 was that of bland mediocrity than an explosive failure.  Every team in the NL West as flaws, so even though the Dodgers don’t have a lot of depth or front-line talent on offense and the outfield defense is pretty weak, a good rotation gives LA as good a shot at the division as any of the other teams.

The McCourt divorce has caused a lot uncertainty in the short and medium term, but Ned Colletti hasn’t really helped matters.  Again, the Dodgers aren’t a bad team, but there really aren’t a lot of organizational goals and they’ve had this tendency to try and solve problems through uncreative solutions bordering on hapless - Jay Gibbons isn’t very useful and the only place Tony Gwynn Jr. is only a major leaguer when he’s playing center.  A real leftfielder and another bullpen arm or two are needed, but I don’t think they’re forthcoming at this point.

Next up:  Twins

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age    BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Andre Ethier      L    RF  29   .280 .360 .480 146 529  78 148  34   3  22  85  64  97   4   3  127
Matt Kemp         R    CF  26   .271 .327 .458 156 583  88 158  28   6  23  88  48 144  25  11  111
James Loney       L    1B  27   .279 .338 .416 156 574  68 160  35   4  12  93  52  83   8   4  104
Rafael Furcal     B    SS  33   .276 .341 .402 102 410  66 113  21   5   7  39  41  57  14   5  102
Juan Uribe        R    2B  31   .260 .311 .436 134 450  55 117  24   2  17  68  32  85   1   3  101
Scott Podsednik   L    LF  35   .279 .327 .379 118 433  53 121  16   6   5  40  30  62  23  11   92
Prentice Redman   R    RF  31   .254 .309 .416  91 351  54  89  20   2  11  46  26  73   5   3   95
Trayvon Robinson  B    CF  23   .254 .330 .384 147 567  86 144  25   8  11  64  61 178  33  18   94
Rod Barajas       R    C   35   .245 .285 .443  96 314  39  77  17   0  15  49  14  54   0   0   95
Casey Blake       R    3B  37   .247 .317 .407 131 462  58 114  25   2  15  64  43 117   1   3   96
Trent Oeltjen     L    RF  28   .256 .304 .398 132 477  65 122  28   8   8  53  28 112  18   7   90
Jay Gibbons       L    LF  34   .263 .292 .412  88 289  33  76  16   0   9  41  13  42   0   0   89
Ronnie Belliard   R    2B  36   .247 .309 .395  88 215  30  53  12   1   6  32  19  47   2   1   90
Xavier Paul       L    LF  26   .254 .310 .388 100 358  47  91  21   3   7  39  27  84  10   5   89
John Lindsey      R    1B  34   .244 .302 .407 120 430  46 105  24   2  14  66  25 102   0   1   91
Dioner Navarro    B    C   27   .261 .319 .374 114 372  39  97  21   0   7  41  29  53   3   2   88
Ivan DeJesus      R    2B  24   .267 .321 .356 155 606  83 162  30   3   6  65  48 105   9   3   85
Michael Restovich R    LF  32   .244 .299 .399 116 386  44  94  21   3  11  45  30 110   1   1   88
Tony Gwynn        L    CF  28   .256 .324 .337 131 398  54 102  13   5   3  29  39  63  18   6   81
Jamie Hoffmann    R    CF  26   .252 .312 .362 139 527  64 133  26   4   8  66  42 104  15   7   83
Travis Denker     R    2B  25   .246 .308 .364 132 467  52 115  28   3   7  51  38 101   5   2   82
Jamey Carroll     R    2B  37   .263 .337 .323 107 319  45  84  12   2   1  24  33  60   7   3   81
Kyle Russell      L    RF  25   .216 .287 .402 148 560  70 121  30   7  20  77  52 250  10   5   85
Dee Gordon        R    SS  23   .266 .311 .334 155 658  98 175  17  11   2  41  37 119  52  24   76
Russ Mitchell     R    3B  26   .241 .285 .384 149 560  68 135  29   3  15  70  33 114   3   3   80
A.J. Ellis        R    C   30   .245 .343 .319  83 257  26  63  12   2   1  34  37  47   1   2   82
Hector Gimenez    B    C   28   .231 .284 .377  90 324  32  75  18   1   9  46  24  87   2   1   78
Reed Johnson      R    LF  34   .254 .304 .355  91 228  28  58  12   1   3  22  10  48   2   3   79
Garret Anderson   L    LF  39   .247 .273 .375  94 267  23  66  14   1   6  31  10  45   1   0   74
Chin-lung Hu      R    SS  27   .254 .285 .340  98 315  37  80  12   3   3  30  13  42   7   1   70
Jaime Pedroza     B    2B  24   .231 .301 .348 151 546  69 126  25   6   9  50  51 173  16  11   76
JD Closser        B    C   31   .226 .290 .308  90 279  27  63  11   0   4  28  25  65   2   2   63
Brad Ausmus       R    C   42   .235 .295 .259  29  81   6  19   2   0   0   5   6  19   0   0   53
Juan Castro       R    SS  39   .229 .264 .271  53 118  11  27   5   0   0  12   6  25   0   1   46

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Andre Ethier                                                  PO/81           PO/81
Matt Kemp                                                             FR/88  FR/115
James Loney                   AV/96
Rafael Furcal                                        VG/122
Juan Uribe                            VG/71   AV/95   AV/73
Scott Podsednik                                               FR/68  FR/191   FR/68
Prentice Redman                                              FR/148   PO/66  FR/148
Trayvon Robinson                                                     AV/183
Rod Barajas
Casey Blake                  AV/120           AV/83
Trent Oeltjen                                                 AV/91  PO/110   AV/91
Jay Gibbons                  FR/116                          PO/132          PO/132
Ronnie Belliard              AV/137  FR/122  FR/129  PO/118
Xavier Paul                                                  AV/121  FR/260  AV/121
John Lindsey                 FR/146                          PO/110
Dioner Navarro           VG
Ivan DeJesus                         VG/153          AV/159
Michael Restovich            FR/119                          FR/143          FR/143
Tony Gwynn                                                   VG/119  EX/158  VG/119
Jamie Hoffmann                                                        FR/41  VG/125
Travis Denker                        AV/133  AV/143
Jamey Carroll                         AV/50  VG/122   AV/90  AV/118          AV/118
Kyle Russell                                                 AV/126  FR/128  AV/126
Dee Gordon                                           VG/176
Russ Mitchell                AV/120  PO/121  PO/108
A.J. Ellis               VG
Hector Gimenez           AV  FR/130            130/
Reed Johnson                                                  AV/83   AV/93   AV/83
Garret Anderson                                               FR/98          FR/112
Chin-lung Hu                         VG/110           AV/96
Jaime Pedroza                        AV/167          FR/177
JD Closser               AV
Brad Ausmus              AV
Juan Castro                          AV/142  AV/113  PO/102

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Clayton Kershaw   L     23    3.02    14    6   33   33  193.7  154   65   12   86  203  132
Chad Billingsley  R     26    3.30    16    9   33   33  207.3  182   76   13   78  195  120
Ted Lilly         L     35    3.44    14    8   29   29  183.3  161   70   24   45  164  116
Hiroki Kuroda     R     36    3.56    12    8   28   27  164.3  158   65   14   38  119  112
Jon Garland       R     31    4.00    12   12   31   31  193.7  192   86   21   65  110  100
Vicente Padilla   R     33    4.00     8    7   23   23  135.0  131   60   16   41  101   99
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Josh Lindblom     R     24    4.26     3    3   32   11   86.7   89   41    9   29   64   93
Scott Elbert      L     25    4.35     3    3   26   10   68.3   61   33    7   44   69   91
John Ely          R     25    4.95     8   11   28   28  147.3  156   81   21   61  101   80
Seth Etherton     R     34    5.01     5    7   17   16   93.3  105   52   14   27   62   79
Russ Ortiz        R     37    5.19     2    3   15    8   52.0   54   30    6   31   37   77
Chris Withrow     R     22    5.44     5    9   28   26  124.0  134   75   15   78   95   73
Carlos MonasteriosR     25    5.52     4    7   31   12   89.7  102   55   16   36   54   72
Jesus Castillo    R     27    5.69     6   11   26   25  125.0  155   79   15   57   59   70
Aaron Miller      L     23    5.70     5   10   26   24  115.3  121   73   16   86   83   70
Alberto Bastardo  L     27    5.77     6   12   28   26  132.7  160   85   17   64   81   69
Mario Alvarez     R     27    6.03     3    7   24   15   88.0  112   59   10   44   43   66

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Hong-Chih Kuo     L     29    2.40     4    1   49    0   56.3   41   15    4   18   68  166
Jonathan Broxton  R     27    2.74     7    3   71    0   72.3   55   22    5   29   94  145
Kenley Jansen     R     23    3.52     3    2   48    0   53.7   42   21    4   36   68  113
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Matt Guerrier     R     32    3.80     6    5   74    0   71.0   66   30    9   23   51  104
Ronald Belisario  R     28    4.16     3    3   60    0   62.7   60   29    6   26   48   95
Ramon Troncoso    R     28    4.24     4    4   66    0   76.3   77   36    8   32   54   94
Jon Huber         R     29    4.41     3    3   40    0   51.0   55   25    5   17   35   90
Jon Link          R     27    4.43     3    3   54    0   63.0   64   31    6   31   50   90
Juan Perez        L     32    4.46     3    3   39    0   40.3   36   20    5   25   40   89
Travis SchlichtingR     26    4.47     2    3   36    0   56.3   57   28    5   25   34   89
Blake Hawksworth  R     28    4.62     6    7   39   11   99.3  107   51   12   36   67   86
Jack Taschner     L     33    4.65     1    2   43    0   40.7   41   21    5   19   30   85
Scott Dohmann     R     33    4.68     1    1   36    0   42.3   44   22    5   17   29   85
Jeff Weaver       R     34    4.71     4    4   33    6   65.0   68   34    8   26   45   84
Geoff Geary       R     34    4.88     3    5   38    3   62.7   71   34    7   25   36   81
Javy Guerra       R     25    4.94     2    3   37    0   47.3   47   26    3   38   37   80
Russ Ortiz        R     37    5.19     2    3   15    8   52.0   54   30    6   31   37   77
Luis Vasquez      R     25    6.04     1    2   22    0   25.3   26   17    3   23   17   66

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Matt Kemp           .268  .321  .445  2440  9069  1271  2431   423    84   338  1237   709  2052   306   102
Garret Anderson     .291  .322  .459  2322  8907  1107  2595   536    37   293  1396   439  1269    81   101
Rafael Furcal       .278  .341  .402  2070  8387  1343  2332   405    97   147   757   793  1137   369    95
Andre Ethier        .277  .350  .462  1845  6613   885  1832   413    39   244   953   703  1108    48   114
Juan Uribe          .254  .301  .424  1820  6246   763  1588   328    50   211   858   403  1181    45    85
Casey Blake         .260  .330  .435  1515  5413   744  1405   311    24   196   730   515  1254    38   101
James Loney         .277  .338  .418  1446  5228   606  1450   305    39   117   802   480   728    67    97
Scott Podsednik     .279  .338  .379  1234  4505   640  1257   201    52    49   372   384   711   342    88

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Ted Lilly          176  144    0    4.06  457  432     2627 2437 1185  390  818 2249    106
Vicente Padilla    137  126    2    4.32  425  340     2103 2154 1009  252  720 1486     97
Chad Billingsley   145  126    1    4.17  399  363     2296 2284 1064  265  781 1693    107
Hiroki Kuroda       77   67    0    3.73  207  203     1228 1194  509  106  289  871    107

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Andre Ethier      RF    37%  31%  16%  11%   6%        Jason Kubel        Jim Edmonds          Pete Ward
Matt Kemp         CF    39%  24%  22%  11%   4%         Adam Jones     Reggie Sanders        Marlon Byrd
James Loney       1B     3%  16%  20%  35%  26%  Broderick Perkins       Bruce Bochte        Matt Murton
Rafael Furcal     SS    38%  27%  23%  10%   2%     Orlando Hudson     Tony Fernandez       Omar Vizquel
Juan Uribe        2B    18%  17%  21%  25%  20%       Scott Seabol        Ricky Jones        Earl Snyder
Scott Podsednik   LF     2%   7%  10%  20%  62%      Milt Thompson       Dave Collins       Jim Piersall
Prentice Redman   RF     1%   6%  11%  23%  60%     Marlin McPhail      Damon Hollins        Matt Mieske
Trayvon Robinson  CF    11%  13%  24%  26%  26%        Stan Javier        Milt Cuyler       Junior Felix
Rod Barajas       C     13%  25%  24%  25%  12%        Jeff Newman          Jim Hegan         Joe Oliver
Casey Blake       3B     5%  11%  18%  27%  39%        Mark DeRosa      Scott McClain         Todd Zeile
Trent Oeltjen     RF     1%   5%  10%  22%  62%       Steve Carter       Bubba Crosby       Alexis Gomez
Jay Gibbons       LF     1%   4%   7%  18%  70%        Glenn Adams   Darrell Whitmore       Armando Rios
Ronnie Belliard   2B    10%  10%  14%  24%  42%      Marty McManus         Greg Gagne      Jerry Royster
Xavier Paul       LF     0%   3%   6%  16%  75%      LaVel Freeman          Rod Allen       Larry Bigbie
John Lindsey      1B     1%   4%   7%  26%  63%           Tom Dodd        Pedro Swann         Dale Sveum
Dioner Navarro    C      4%  15%  25%  34%  22%        Raul Chavez        Walt McKeel      Yadier Molina
Ivan DeJesus      2B     5%   8%  14%  27%  47%      Josh Barfield      Damion Easley         Todd Haney
Michael Restovich LF     1%   3%   6%  15%  76%     Terrell Lowery        Lou Collier     Marlin McPhail
Tony Gwynn        CF     3%   5%  16%  32%  43%         Greg Tubbs       Bruce Dostal         Eric Owens
Jamie Hoffmann    CF     1%   4%  14%  33%  49%        Lou Collier         Bubba Bell    Ryan Spilborghs
Travis Denker     2B     3%   5%  11%  25%  56%       Adam Heether    Tony Granadillo  Chris Lombardozzi
Jamey Carroll     2B     3%   5%  10%  22%  60%      Johnny Temple    Tony Graffanino      Randy Velarde
Kyle Russell      RF     1%   4%   7%  14%  74%       Ralph Bryant        Doug Frobel        Brad Snyder
Dee Gordon        SS     3%   7%  20%  29%  40%        Erick Aybar      Royce Clayton    Alcides Escobar
Russ Mitchell     3B     0%   3%   7%  15%  76%      Travis Hanson        Eric Duncan     Travis Metcalf
A.J. Ellis        C      1%   8%  16%  33%  41%       Dick Bertell       Andrew Ellis        Erik Pappas
Hector Gimenez    C      1%   8%  15%  32%  44%         Bill Hayes       Alvin Colina      Steve Jackson
Reed Johnson      LF     0%   1%   2%   7%  90%          Gary Ward      Shane Spencer         Chad Allen
Garret Anderson   LF     1%   1%   2%   6%  90%       Brian Jordan        Joe Orsulak        Bud Stewart
Chin-lung Hu      SS     1%   4%  12%  27%  56%    Hector Rincones   Jackie Gutierrez      Craig Shipley
Jaime Pedroza     2B     2%   2%   4%  12%  80%        Bob Meacham         Scott Earl       David Howard
JD Closser        C      1%   1%   3%  11%  84%       Chad Moeller       Danny Ardoin       Chris Tremie
Brad Ausmus       C      0%   0%   1%   5%  94%         Dan Wilson        Joe Girardi        Raul Chavez
Juan Castro       SS     0%   0%   1%   1%  98%      Rene Gonzales      Mark Belanger       Jeff Branson

Player            PO     TOP   MID   BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Hong-Chih Kuo     RP     86%   11%    3%        John Hiller         Mark Davis   Willie Hernandez
Jonathan Broxton  RP     73%   21%    6%        Dick Radatz    Steve Bedrosian         Duane Ward
Clayton Kershaw   SP     87%   10%    3%       Sam McDowellFernando Valenzuela      Sid Fernandez
Chad Billingsley  SP     73%   24%    3%        Bump Hadley       Mark Gubicza        Juan Guzman
Ted Lilly         SP     55%   36%    9%         Ron Guidry       Jeff Fassero       Carl Hubbell
Kenley Jansen     RP     41%   44%   15%         Mark Clear       Mark Littell       Rich Gossage
Hiroki Kuroda     SP     54%   41%    5%         Bryn Smith         Derek Lowe      Rick Reuschel
Matt Guerrier     RP     20%   48%   32%        Gene Nelson          Donn Pall          Bob Wells
Jon Garland       SP     13%   59%   29%         Jim Slaton       Andy Hawkins     Kirk McCaskill
Vicente Padilla   SP     24%   55%   21%       Rick Helling         Jim Clancy      Bartolo Colon
Ronald Belisario  RP     12%   46%   42%       Chad Paronto        Steve Hoeme      Steve Schmoll
Ramon Troncoso    RP      5%   42%   53%      Steve Schmoll    Rocky Childress        Jeff Sexton
Josh Lindblom     SP      6%   46%   47%     Jim Neidlinger         Rick Davis       Brady Raggio
Scott Elbert      SP      8%   34%   57%       Jesse Orosco         Tim Conroy          Ken Brett
Jon Huber         RP      9%   30%   61%      Jose Santiago         Jose Silva       Juan Padilla
Jon Link          RP      6%   37%   57%       Dan Reichert      Gerry Hannahs       Jeff Cornell
Juan Perez        RP     11%   28%   60%         Doug Creek        Kevin Tolar       Tim Fortugno
Travis SchlichtingRP      5%   39%   56%     Frank Lankford           Jim Winn        Greg Booker
Blake Hawksworth  RP      1%   26%   73%        Don Wengert         Eric Moody     David Lundberg
Jack Taschner     RP      6%   21%   73%       Joey Eischen       Kevin Hickey     Wayne Franklin
Scott Dohmann     RP      5%   27%   68%           Tom Hume       Ricky Barlow       Rob Stanifer
Jeff Weaver       RP      5%   25%   69%     Dave Wainhouse      Terry Mathews       Ricky Barlow
Geoff Geary       RP      5%   19%   77%        Bob Scanlan         A.J. Sager       Ricky Barlow
Javy Guerra       RP      3%   24%   72% Heathcliff Slocumb         Jeff Smith     Ryan Henderson
John Ely          SP      2%   27%   72%        Matt Crouch      Scott Cassidy  Scott Klingenbeck
Seth Etherton     SP      4%   22%   74%      Mike Smithson      James Baldwin       Kevin Jarvis
Russ Ortiz        SP      6%   19%   75%       Vern Kennedy        Chuck Smith         Jim Slaton
Chris Withrow     SP      0%   10%   90%     Doug Robertson         Kevin Ritz        Matt Albers
Carlos MonasteriosSP      0%    4%   96%           Ken Ryan     Daron Kirkreit       Mike Redding
Jesus Castillo    SP      0%    4%   96%          Ben Fritz    Mickey Callaway     Hatuey Mendoza
Aaron Miller      SP      0%    5%   95%        John Rocker      Nate Cromwell       Steve Colyer
Alberto Bastardo  SP      0%    3%   97%       Jason Cromer     Mike Prochaska         Matt Smith
Mario Alvarez     SP      0%    3%   97%       Chris Enochs     Steven Jackson        Andy Larkin
Luis Vasquez      RP      1%    7%   91%       Jon Connolly     Edwardo Sierra   Johnny Humphries

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Andre Ethier            20%      29%      32%      10%       2%      15%      24%       0%
Matt Kemp               11%       4%      17%       3%      16%      27%       6%      35%
James Loney             17%       8%       2%      17%       3%       0%       2%       2%
Rafael Furcal           18%      13%       3%       0%       8%       0%       3%       3%
Juan Uribe               6%       1%       7%       0%       0%       2%       2%       0%
Scott Podsednik         21%       4%       1%       0%      12%       0%       0%      19%
Prentice Redman          3%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Trayvon Robinson         4%       5%       2%       1%      32%       1%       1%      66%
Rod Barajas              3%       0%      11%       0%       0%       1%       2%       0%
Casey Blake              2%       2%       4%       1%       1%       2%       2%       0%
Trent Oeltjen            3%       0%       1%       1%      28%       0%       0%       3%
Jay Gibbons             10%       0%       4%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Ronnie Belliard          6%       3%       3%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Xavier Paul              3%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
John Lindsey             1%       0%       2%       0%       1%       1%       0%       0%
Dioner Navarro           6%       3%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Ivan DeJesus             7%       1%       0%       4%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Michael Restovich        1%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Tony Gwynn               4%       3%       0%       0%       6%       0%       0%       7%
Jamie Hoffmann           1%       0%       0%       1%       4%       0%       0%       2%
Travis Denker            1%       1%       0%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Jamey Carroll           10%      10%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Kyle Russell             0%       0%       2%       2%      17%       8%       0%       0%
Dee Gordon               6%       0%       0%       0%      60%       0%       0%       0%
Russ Mitchell            0%       0%       0%       2%       1%       1%       0%       0%
A.J. Ellis               3%      14%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Hector Gimenez           1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Reed Johnson             8%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Garret Anderson          5%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Chin-lung Hu             4%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Jaime Pedroza            0%       0%       0%       0%      15%       1%       0%       2%
JD Closser               1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brad Ausmus              8%       5%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Juan Castro              4%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Hong-Chih Kuo             88%        96%        97%        14%        92%
Jonathan Broxton          71%        97%        98%         1%        92%
Clayton Kershaw           61%        92%        91%         0%        99%
Chad Billingsley          32%        93%        68%         0%        99%
Ted Lilly                 22%        84%        47%        36%        30%
Kenley Jansen             33%        74%        98%         0%        90%
Hiroki Kuroda             21%        79%         4%        49%        84%
Matt Guerrier             15%        61%         4%         8%        52%
Jon Garland                4%        52%         1%         1%        68%
Vicente Padilla            4%        45%         4%         7%        44%
Ronald Belisario           8%        43%        10%         1%        70%
Ramon Troncoso             5%        34%         2%         0%        63%
Josh Lindblom              5%        40%         7%         4%        70%
Scott Elbert               6%        36%        78%         0%        69%
Jon Huber                  6%        31%         3%        10%        72%
Jon Link                   4%        36%        15%         0%        72%
Juan Perez                 7%        31%        72%         0%        42%
Travis Schlichting         5%        36%         0%         1%        70%
Blake Hawksworth           1%        18%         1%         1%        43%
Jack Taschner              4%        27%        10%         1%        55%
Scott Dohmann              5%        24%         4%         3%        62%
Jeff Weaver                4%        21%         6%         1%        47%
Geoff Geary                4%        16%         4%         4%        64%
Javy Guerra                3%        21%        19%         0%        87%
John Ely                   0%         6%         1%         0%        22%
Seth Etherton              1%        10%         2%        19%        19%
Russ Ortiz                 2%        12%        14%         1%        60%
Chris Withrow              0%         2%         6%         0%        52%
Carlos Monasterios         0%         2%         1%         0%        12%
Jesus Castillo             0%         0%         0%         0%        49%
Aaron Miller               0%         1%         3%         0%        31%
Alberto Bastardo           0%         0%         0%         0%        38%
Mario Alvarez              0%         1%         0%         0%        53%
Luis Vasquez               1%         9%         5%         0%        57%


All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Baltimore Orioles
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
Houston Astros
St. Louis Cardinals

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 27, 2010 at 07:59 AM | 33 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Boxkutter Posted: December 27, 2010 at 08:18 AM (#3718296)
No Jerry Sands projection? I would be interested in seeing what his numbers look like, both offensively and defensively.
   2. RollingWave Posted: December 27, 2010 at 09:39 AM (#3718300)
They have some pretty awesome players... but the supporting cast is really down right miserable. though you figure with that rotation with some good health and an insane setup / closer duo they only need a few things to go right (like... that Matt Kemp breakout we been looking for) for them to contend....

Having said that... I think Ned Colletti will trade Kemp + Kuo + Kreshaw for a *insert random over the hill big name player here*
   3. CaptainBrownEye Posted: December 27, 2010 at 11:53 AM (#3718304)
Does Barajas get a throwing rating, or did his arm fall off? I mean he is 35 so I wouldn't be surprised if it was the latter haha. The dodgers have a pretty solid offense, but their defense is downright awful, save Uribe. They might have the worst OF of all time defensively if Gwynn doesn't get significant playing time until September when it would be interesting to see Trayvon get an extended look. The pitching... filthy. Their bullpen is solid from the 7th and after, although Jansen is bound to cost them a couple games with his bb/9 rating. I think Kuroda, Bills, and Kershaw all have the ability to pitch a tad better than their projections.

On another note, I also would be interested in seeing what the projection for Sands would be...
   4. bigboy1234 Posted: December 27, 2010 at 12:18 PM (#3718306)
It'll be interested to see what happens with Broxton as these were his numbers after the all-star break.

25 Games
24 IP
21 Walks
18 Strikeouts
30 Hits
3 Homeruns

The weird thing is he really didn't lose any velocity during the season, but was utterly dominate in the first half and then just fell apart after the all-star break.
   5. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: December 27, 2010 at 04:12 PM (#3718344)
Third the Jerry Sands request, and would also love to see Rubby de la Rosa's projection.
   6. shattnering his Dominicano G Strings on that Mound Posted: December 27, 2010 at 05:30 PM (#3718366)
I'd love to see an extrapolated career for Kershaw, if that's possible. I like those a lot and love to look back at them in years to follow.
   7. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 27, 2010 at 05:31 PM (#3718367)
Barajas arm rating was put in OF arm rating by accident. Just barely hung onto average - he wasn't good in 2010, but he was pretty steadily in the 30s prior.
   8. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 27, 2010 at 05:39 PM (#3718370)
Sands is an obvious oversight - 242/316/431 (OPS+ 101) for 2011.

I was hoping nobody would speak up about Rubby as I hate projecting pitchers with very short resumes (and resulting super wide error bars). But I guess I was caught fair and square. 92 ERA+ swing role projection (down to 87 as a full-time starter).
   9. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: December 27, 2010 at 05:53 PM (#3718378)
Thanks Dan. Rubby could go a million different ways. Amazing to see the drop off in the system's overall pitching projection compared to just a year ago, where it seemed they were hemorrhaging guys with ERA+s of 100 or better.
   10. Spivey Posted: December 27, 2010 at 06:20 PM (#3718392)
I'd also like to see career projections of Kershaw. Seems like he's the only player with a reasonable HOF shot here.

Very impressive front 4 of the rotation here. There will not be a lot of runs scored in the NL West this year.
   11. Tripon Posted: December 27, 2010 at 06:36 PM (#3718400)
A quirk of the Frank McCourt Dodgers is that they never missed the playoffs twice in a row. After missing out in 2010, Ned went for broke, spending $90 million in guaranteed money for players like Ted Lilly, and Juan Uribe.

If the Dodgers miss the playoffs again, Ned might finally be sacked.
   12. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 27, 2010 at 07:00 PM (#3718409)
Kershaw's is 150-92 with a 122 ERA+. Lots can go wrong for a pitcher in 15 years.
   13. Bob Evans Posted: December 27, 2010 at 07:02 PM (#3718412)
101 OPS+ for Uribe, eh? Hmm.
   14. Walt Davis Posted: December 27, 2010 at 07:22 PM (#3718421)
Sam McDowell Fernando Valenzuela Sid Fernandez

So we should start planning the wake for Kershaw's arm now? :-)

How in the world does Jason Kubel get to be Ethier's #1 comp?

Ethier, ages 26-28: 132, 131, 134 OPS+
Kubel, ages 26-28: 115, 136, 102

ZiPS projects 267 more AB for Garret Anderson. I'll take the under! :-)

I can't decide if Prentice Redman should be one of the snobs in Animal House or one of the evil rich guys in Trading Places.

EDIT: Oh yeah, baseball content. Excellent rotation, adequate offense. Lilly's a flyball pitcher and with that defense behind him I'm not sure he can hit that projection. Maybe they're following the Sabean model in LF -- start with guys who suck and just assume a Pat Burrell will fall into your lap and start hitting like Pat Burrell again. With a real LF, looks like a solid mid-high 80s win team to me. Not a lot of depth.
   15. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: December 27, 2010 at 08:29 PM (#3718486)
Remember Tike Redman? Prentice is his better-hit, less-glove, worse-luck brother.

I was curious about Sands too ... curious about his glove. The little bit I've seen of him he looked a lot better than what you read in BA, etc... - I think he's just fine in RF.
   16. CaptainBrownEye Posted: December 27, 2010 at 10:43 PM (#3718586)
If the Dodgers miss the playoffs again, Ned might finally be sacked.

As a Padres fan this is terrible, terrible news. But now I'm not sure whether to root for the Dodgers (which just made me puke a little in my mouth), and hope that he will continue in his occupancy, or continue to express my disdain for this team and most of its supporters.
   17. JJ1986 Posted: December 27, 2010 at 10:50 PM (#3718593)
With a real LF, looks like a solid mid-high 80s win team to me


If they're not going to get a LF who can hit, they need to get a CF who can play defense, move Kemp to RF and Ethier to LF. Maybe that makes too much sense.
   18. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: December 28, 2010 at 04:04 PM (#3718847)
Russ Ortiz is still alive?
   19. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 28, 2010 at 04:26 PM (#3718863)
I was curious about Sands too ... curious about his glove. The little bit I've seen of him he looked a lot better than what you read in BA, etc... - I think he's just fine in RF.


Sands is from this area (Clayton) and some of the things I've heard from the locals imply that the Dodgers' minor league people and Sands don't always see eye-to-eye on his development path. It's possible that some of that has filtered out into the public. Granted that he was a 25th rounder, but the Dodgers *have* been moving him very slowly; they left him in low-A to start 2010 for no obvious reason (it's not as though they had any great OF prospects in the Cal League last year) and waited until he had half a season of tearing up the MWL to move him up to AA.

-- MWE
   20. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: December 28, 2010 at 04:29 PM (#3718866)
Those offensive projections make me wince.
   21. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: December 31, 2010 at 03:59 AM (#3720625)
Mike, you may remember how I do a mock draft every year ... well, Sands was (sad to say) my best find of his draft class, so wish-casting may be affecting my judgment here. :)
I've never heard any locals mention Sands at all - but I have noticed how they've jerked him around a bit (playing him in center, than at first?). OTOH, he was a late draft pick and barely topped .200 in complex ball as a college guy that first year, so he should be glad they stuck with him at all - he never gave them a real reason to be a priority 'til this year (arguably the second half of last year, but I'd say 2010).
   22. Bring Back Pluto Posted: January 01, 2011 at 01:18 PM (#3721199)
Russ Ortiz is still alive?


Not only is he still alive, he is apparently worth an entry as both SP and RP! :P
   23. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: January 01, 2011 at 01:24 PM (#3721200)
22. Bring Back Pluto Posted: January 01, 2011 at 08:18 AM (#3721199)

Everybody should have a cause. :)
   24. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: January 01, 2011 at 03:13 PM (#3721229)
(fights urge to register as Pluto)
   25. phredbird Posted: January 02, 2011 at 07:25 AM (#3721677)
once and for all, pluto is NOT a planet. there are too many bodies near the same size as pluto in the kuiper belt for pluto to be given special consideration. we'd have thousands more planets in the solar system if we let pluto in. then where would we be? cats living with dogs?
   26. phredbird Posted: January 02, 2011 at 07:26 AM (#3721678)
oh, and by the way, i've been talking with the guy at my office who gets our tickets for dodger games. boy, are they a mess. the p.r. dept. is down to about two people.
   27. Tripon Posted: January 02, 2011 at 08:07 AM (#3721689)
I guess that means I'm not getting a free ticket next year.
   28. phredbird Posted: January 02, 2011 at 09:27 PM (#3721963)
no worries, dude. he said we'll get something, just not sure what. you're on my list.
   29. The District Attorney Posted: January 02, 2011 at 10:02 PM (#3721984)
If they're not going to get a LF who can hit, they need to get a CF who can play defense, move Kemp to RF and Ethier to LF.
That is Gwynn, no? (Odds they actually figure this out?...)

there are too many bodies near the same size as pluto in the kuiper belt
Maybe we could only count the ones in the LeMaster Belt, then?

we'd have thousands more planets in the solar system if we let pluto in. then where would we be? cats living with dogs?
In fact, yes. Which is certainly a lot clearer than what would happen if we added planet Goofy.
   30. phredbird Posted: January 03, 2011 at 05:55 AM (#3722202)
heh. its funny to read the interviews with that guy who put the whole process in motion to get pluto demoted. he can't believe the reaction.

LA Times: You've gotten sad letters from little children sticking up for Pluto, and some, well, some nastier comments from older people.

Mike Brown: These days, some of the kids have gotten old enough to do obscene phone messages instead. Here's one -- they always happen about 3 in the morning [he plays the messages]: "Just so you know, Pluto is a planet, you selfish, paint-licking, fetus-hormoning [expletive deleted] #####!" Here's one from 4 in the afternoon: "Hey! Pluto's still a planet, you jackass!"
   31. The District Attorney Posted: January 03, 2011 at 06:27 AM (#3722208)
"Fetus-hormoning"?
   32. phredbird Posted: January 03, 2011 at 06:46 AM (#3722212)
all i can think is the reporter didn't hear the message correctly or it's some of that wild hep lingo from those crazy young kids.
   33. amisaid1 Posted: February 06, 2011 at 03:14 AM (#3744467)
Can we get a Tony Delmonico projection? Intriguing catching prospect.

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