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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, December 31, 2010

2011 ZiPS Projections - Minnesota Twins

The 2010 Twins survived without Joe Nathan, but given that they’re losing most of their bullpen to free agency (Bill Smith acquired relievers last summer at a rate that would make Eddie wade blush), they really need to have him back as the team hasn’t really done much to replace the losses.

The team’s done some odd things lately - trading Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps will very likely come back to bite them and giving minor league free agent Eric Hacker a major-league contract seems rather silly - but the odd things aren’t really the type that are going to hurt the team.  Nishioka, however, was an amazing signing ($5 million for the posting plus 3 years, $9 million).  I think we’ve gotten to the point that teams are properly appreciating the first-tier of NPB players, but I think there’s still some inefficiency at evaluating the next tier of “good, non-star” players.

There are still concerns about depth in the upper minors, but at least the team’s brought in a few more minor league free agents than usual - players like Steve Holm and Jeff Bailey aren’t starters in the majors but any remote stretch, but it’s nice to have them around and it was something the Twins were really missing on a 2010 Rochester team that didn’t have anyone slug .450 (min. 1 AB).

The Twins should compete as usual, but I don’t think they’re a step ahead of the Tigers or White Sox right now.

Next up:  Giants

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age    BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Justin Morneau    L    1B  30   .289 .380 .528 117 436  67 126  28   2  24  78  66  77   0   0  142
Joe Mauer         L    C   28   .313 .397 .464 143 528  86 165  34   2  14  79  77  59   3   3  132
Jim Thome         L    DH  40   .248 .369 .511 110 327  53  81  15   1  23  64  62 108   0   0  134
Jason Kubel       L    RF  29   .266 .339 .460 142 493  64 131  27   3  21  83  55 103   1   1  113
Delmon Young      R    LF  25   .290 .327 .451 156 583  72 169  36   2  18  91  30 104   8   5  107
Michael Cuddyer   R    RF  32   .264 .333 .430 134 512  73 135  30   5  15  71  50  91   6   2  104
Denard Span       L    CF  27   .278 .354 .381 156 616  91 171  24  11   6  64  68  93  28  10   99
Tsuyoshi Nishioka B    2B  26   .281 .337 .403 156 601  96 169  26  13   7  49  48  77  38  17   99
Danny Valencia    R    3B  26   .266 .310 .388 145 546  59 145  33   2  10  62  35 109   3   2   87
Ben Revere        L    CF  23   .281 .332 .338 131 509  60 143  14   6   1  36  33  57  39  17   82
Joe Benson        R    CF  23   .232 .311 .406 125 466  62 108  23   5  16  46  43 146  14  10   92
Jeff Bailey       R    1B  32   .236 .324 .371 114 420  54  99  21   3  10  46  46 102   3   1   87
Alexi Casilla     B    SS  26   .260 .322 .345 122 385  50 100  13   4   4  37  35  55  16   6   80
Luke Hughes       R    2B  26   .238 .296 .378  76 286  33  68  15   2   7  29  22  79   4   1   80
Ray Chang         R    3B  27   .252 .320 .348  93 333  38  84  21   1   3  35  27  58   1   2   80
Brandon Roberts   L    CF  26   .257 .314 .329  93 350  44  90  12   2   3  29  22  63  13   4   74
Matt Tolbert      B    2B  29   .251 .299 .352  98 315  37  79  13   5   3  28  22  53   9   4   75
Justin Huber      R    1B  28   .235 .304 .358 104 302  30  71  13   0   8  36  25  70   1   1   78
Chris Parmelee    L    1B  23   .242 .305 .354 152 567  59 137  28   3  10  63  52 128   2   3   78
Brock Peterson    R    1B  27   .228 .297 .363 122 435  48  99  19   2  12  44  38 133   0   1   77
D’Angelo Jimenez  B    3B  33   .231 .307 .350  90 260  24  60  12   2   5  31  30  45   2   2   77
Nick Punto        B    3B  33   .239 .324 .306 104 314  37  75  14   2   1  26  40  59  11   4   71
Trevor Plouffe    R    SS  25   .239 .282 .375 143 536  61 128  29   4  12  54  30 112   5   6   76
Steve Holm        R    C   31   .234 .313 .341  76 214  26  50  12   1   3  25  22  45   1   2   77
Brian Dinkelman   L    LF  27   .238 .304 .335 134 517  57 123  28   2   6  42  42 100   7   4   72
Jason Repko       R    CF  30   .221 .293 .344 123 398  52  88  16   3   9  33  34 105  13   5   71
Rene Tosoni       L    DH  24   .230 .310 .348  87 313  34  72  13   3   6  34  28  92   4   5   77
Aaron Hicks       B    CF  21   .224 .315 .336 124 482  69 108  23   5   7  42  65 144  16  15   76
Chase Lambin      B    3B  31   .219 .284 .349 124 430  42  94  20   3  10  43  34 130   4   3   70
Rene Rivera       R    C   27   .229 .270 .356  66 236  18  54  12   0   6  26  12  64   0   0   67
Dustin Martin     L    RF  27   .228 .285 .331 135 505  55 115  21   5   7  51  40 148  16   7   66
Matthew Brown     R    3B  28   .214 .274 .360  99 378  39  81  22   3   9  39  29 110   3   3   69
Matt Macri        R    2B  29   .223 .279 .357 105 359  38  80  20   2   8  32  26  96   3   5   70
Jacque Jones      L    LF  36   .232 .277 .321  82 280  27  65  14   1   3  25  16  64   3   1   61
Erik Lis          L    1B  27   .216 .264 .338 128 477  39 103  23   1  11  51  28 143   1   1   61
Drew Butera       R    C   27   .220 .274 .324  82 259  22  57  13   1   4  23  16  51   0   1   61
Toby Gardenhire   B    2B  28   .225 .276 .258  78 240  20  54   5   0   1  18  13  46   1   2   46

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Justin Morneau                VG/53
Joe Mauer                AV
Jim Thome
Jason Kubel
Delmon Young                                                 PO/135
Michael Cuddyer              FR/115          FR/114                  PO/113   PO/77
Denard Span                                                  VG/111   AV/98  VG/118
Tsuyoshi Nishioka                    VG/100          AV/100
Danny Valencia                                AV/81
Ben Revere                                                   AV/159  AV/172  AV/159
Joe Benson                                                   VG/132  AV/190  AV/132
Jeff Bailey                  AV/127                          FR/136          PO/122
Alexi Casilla                        AV/132  AV/113  VG/119
Luke Hughes                          PO/124  PO/182          AV/113  FR/113
Ray Chang                    FR/111   PO/92   FR/65  PO/104
Brandon Roberts                                              VG/107  FR/146
Matt Tolbert                          FR/97  VG/115  PO/120  AV/106  FR/133  AV/106
Justin Huber                 AV/121          FR/122          FR/125          FR/125
Chris Parmelee               FR/186                                          FR/181
Brock Peterson               FR/153                                          FR/122
D’Angelo Jimenez                     FR/128  FR/111  FR/114
Nick Punto                            VG/89   VG/81  VG/102
Trevor Plouffe                       AV/139  AV/113  AV/129
Steve Holm               AV
Brian Dinkelman                      FR/125          PO/108  FR/131          AV/101
Jason Repko                                                   VG/62   AV/80   VG/62
Rene Tosoni                                                  FR/132  PO/171  FR/132
Aaron Hicks                                                  VG/108  AV/168
Chase Lambin                 AV/123  FR/116  FR/136
Rene Rivera              VG   FR/97          PO/122
Dustin Martin
Matthew Brown                AV/191          PO/163          AV/116
Matt Macri                   AV/129  VG/120  AV/162  FR/139  AV/123          AV/123
Jacque Jones                                                 AV/108  AV/128  AV/108
Erik Lis                     AV/199                          FR/133          FR/133
Drew Butera              VG
Toby Gardenhire          FR  AV/129  VG/177  VG/136  AV/131  AV/114

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Francisco Liriano L     27    3.92    14    9   32   31  183.7  179   80   16   65  177  109
Scott Baker       R     29    4.02    13    9   31   31  186.0  186   83   23   45  161  106
Kevin Slowey      R     27    4.33    11    9   27   26  147.7  156   71   21   28  119   98
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Brian Duensing    L     28    4.46     8    7   42   18  135.3  150   67   13   44   76   96
Carl Pavano       R     35    4.47    11   10   26   26  165.0  182   82   22   31  103   95
Nick Blackburn    R     29    4.88    10   11   30   29  175.3  205   95   24   41   86   87
Liam Hendriks     R     22    4.96     7    9   26   25  136.0  157   75   16   41   85   86
Kyle Gibson       R     23    4.97     8   10   27   27  145.0  164   80   15   55   86   86
Scott Diamond     L     24    5.25     7    9   27   27  145.7  176   85   12   67   86   81
David Bromberg    R     23    5.49     7   10   27   27  142.7  165   87   18   72   87   78
Jeff Manship      R     26    5.60     7   10   30   24  138.3  177   86   16   48   76   76
Eric Hacker       R     28    5.69     7   12   30   29  148.7  187   94   16   67   85   75
Glen Perkins      L     28    5.85     6   10   29   25  135.3  175   88   20   44   72   73
Yoslan Herrera    R     30    5.99     3    6   17   14   73.7   92   49    9   38   37   71
Carlos Gutierrez  R     24    6.09     4    8   35   17  112.3  141   76   13   66   55   70
Anthony Swarzak   R     25    6.22     6   12   25   25  127.3  167   88   20   51   61   68
Mike Maroth       L     33    6.23     2    3    9    7   34.7   43   24    6   16   18   68
Charlie Zink      R     31    6.39     4    8   16   15   76.0   95   54    9   54   28   67
Deolis Guerra     R     22    6.78     5   13   26   25  128.7  173   97   24   57   63   63

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Joe Nathan        R     36    3.00     2    1   47    0   45.0   36   15    4   15   52  142
Brian Fuentes     L     35    3.42     4    2   55    0   50.0   42   19    5   21   54  124
Jon Rauch         R     32    3.75     5    3   65    0   62.3   62   26    6   17   52  113
Jose Mijares      L     26    3.89     2    1   53    0   44.0   42   19    5   16   38  110
Matt Capps        R     27    3.90     5    4   67    0   67.0   68   29    7   18   55  109
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Alex Burnett      R     23    4.46     3    3   56    0   68.7   71   34    6   31   50   96
Ron Mahay         L     40    4.53     2    2   49    0   45.7   47   23    6   17   37   94
Pat Neshek        R     30    4.57     3    3   41    0   41.3   41   21    5   19   34   93
Anthony Slama     R     27    4.59     3    3   61    0   68.7   64   35    7   48   66   93
Randy Flores      L     35    4.75     1    1   57    0   36.0   39   19    4   17   27   90
Kyle Waldrop      R     25    4.88     4    5   59    0   86.7  103   47    7   30   41   87
Rob Delaney       R     26    5.07     6    7   61    0   76.3   84   43   12   27   60   84
Jim Hoey          R     28    5.16     3    4   47    0   52.3   53   30    4   40   45   83
Kane Holbrooks    R     24    5.23     6    8   44   11   96.3  110   56   11   44   66   81
Billy Bullock     R     23    5.30     3    4   48    0   54.3   58   32    6   38   48   80
Tim Lahey         R     29    6.27     3    5   47    1   66.0   80   46   10   41   37   68

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Jim Thome           .275  .401  .555  2607  8626  1634  2374   459    28   633  1748  1794  2601    19   146
Joe Mauer           .305  .382  .442  2397  9001  1335  2747   529    38   208  1261  1148   909    77   121
Delmon Young        .284  .322  .434  2056  7723   931  2195   459    26   216  1151   395  1361   118   101
Justin Morneau      .279  .355  .489  1874  6995   994  1952   423    30   329  1219   841  1128     4   124
Denard Span         .274  .348  .378  1671  6642   967  1817   254   102    78   691   715   909   233    96
Jason Kubel         .262  .330  .446  1557  5350   672  1404   286    31   211   857   544  1034    17   106
Michael Cuddyer     .264  .334  .433  1549  5655   817  1495   325    52   175   784   553  1042    61   103
Jacque Jones        .277  .326  .448  1302  4594   632  1272   255    19   165   630   314   949    82    98

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Scott Baker        137  112    0    4.29  360  357     2128 2202 1014  282  521 1740     99
Francisco Liriano  150  114    1    4.01  381  351     2110 2031  940  198  765 2077    106
Carl Pavano        120  119    0    4.49  324  306     1899 2096  948  231  458 1211     96
Kevin Slowey       117   91    0    4.39  295  283     1608 1730  783  245  296 1279     96
Nick Blackburn      71   80    0    4.73  214  203     1244 1466  654  173  283  596     89

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Justin Morneau    1B    57%  27%   9%   5%   1%        Don Mincher      Mark Teixeira    Adrian Gonzalez
Joe Mauer         C     82%  15%   2%   1%   0%      Smoky Burgess         Spud Davis        Ted Simmons
Jim Thome         DH    44%  27%  13%  10%   5%     Willie McCovey          Norm Cash         Jack Clark
Jason Kubel       RF    15%  30%  22%  19%  14%       Matt Winters      Larry Parrish        Ryan Klesko
Delmon Young      LF     7%  24%  23%  24%  22%         Carlos Lee        Wil Cordero         Mark Quinn
Michael Cuddyer   RF     7%  19%  18%  24%  31%          Al Cowens           Al Smith   Juan Encarnacion
Denard Span       CF    18%  19%  29%  22%  11%       Brett Butler    Jacoby Ellsbury       Kenny Lofton
Tsuyoshi Nishioka 2B    25%  19%  19%  20%  17%         Jose Reyes         Ray Durham      Jimmy Rollins
Danny Valencia    3B     1%   5%  13%  27%  54%      Casey McGehee       Brook Jacoby       Leo Cardenas
Ben Revere        CF     3%   6%  16%  28%  48%        Jeremy Reed   Michael Brantley        Joe Orsulak
Joe Benson        CF     6%  11%  21%  28%  34%    Gerald Williams     Jeromy Burnitz         Sammy Sosa
Jeff Bailey       1B     1%   3%   5%  23%  67%        Pedro Swann       Brian Lesher      David McCarty
Alexi Casilla     SS     4%  11%  26%  30%  29%     Carlos Mendoza    Harold Reynolds      Kevin Stocker
Luke Hughes       2B     3%   4%   9%  23%  61%         Nick Green         Matt Macri   Archi Cianfrocco
Ray Chang         3B     0%   1%   5%  17%  76%    Patrick Sellers      Casey McGehee       Jason Alfaro
Brandon Roberts   CF     1%   2%   7%  22%  68%       Clay Timpner        Alex Negron      Lonnie Maclin
Matt Tolbert      2B     2%   2%   4%  13%  79%        Steve Hecht        Joe Inglett        Kevin Davis
Justin Huber      1B     0%   0%   1%   8%  91%         Ryan Jones Alberto Concepcion     Dustin Brisson
Chris Parmelee    1B     0%   0%   1%   9%  89%      Michael Paulk      Travis Hinton        Mike Hocutt
Brock Peterson    1B     0%   0%   1%   6%  93%    Richard Johnson    Juan Richardson       Paul Hollins
D’Angelo Jimenez  3B     1%   2%   4%  11%  81%         Dave McKay         Geoff Blum       Reed Secrist
Nick Punto        3B     0%   2%   4%  10%  84%           Dan Rohn      Kevin Stocker       Ivan DeJesus
Trevor Plouffe    SS     2%   3%  11%  25%  59%    Andrew Pinckney      Oscar Salazar     Clay Bellinger
Steve Holm        C      1%   5%   9%  23%  62%       Chad Moeller        Paul Hoover       Henry Blanco
Brian Dinkelman   LF     0%   0%   0%   2%  97%        Evan Pratte       Ron Witmeyer     Chip Childress
Jason Repko       CF     0%   2%   6%  16%  76%    Kevin Koslofski        Juan Camilo         Doug Clark
Rene Tosoni       DH     1%   1%   1%   5%  91%        Shawn Jeter      Tom Lombarski    Tonys Gutierrez
Aaron Hicks       CF     0%   0%   0%   0% 100%     Ntema Ndungidi         Kevin Dean        Tony Walker
Chase Lambin      3B     0%   1%   2%   6%  91%         Bryn Kosco  Trace Coquillette       Sean Mcnally
Rene Rivera       C      0%   1%   4%  16%  79%       Alvin Colina       Tommy Duenas        Joe Ayrault
Dustin Martin     RF     0%   0%   0%   1%  99%        Jalal Leach       Alexis Gomez       Tommy Murphy
Matthew Brown     3B     0%   1%   3%   8%  87%       Brandon Inge         Bryn Kosco          Bob Bafia
Matt Macri        2B     0%   1%   2%   6%  91%         Seth Bynum         Tim Hulett  Trace Coquillette
Jacque Jones      LF     0%   0%   0%   1%  98%       Felipe Zayas        Joe Orsulak        Dann Howitt
Erik Lis          1B     0%   0%   0%   0% 100%   Tyler Von Schell       Steve Carver        Carlos Yedo
Drew Butera       C      0%   1%   2%   6%  91%          Mike Ryan          Tom Nieto       Matt Garrick
Toby Gardenhire   2B     0%   0%   0%   0% 100%       Rex Rundgren      Jerome Alviso         Luke Sable

Player            PO     TOP   MID   BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Joe Nathan        RP     58%   29%   13%         Tom Gordon          Tom Henke         Jay Howell
Brian Fuentes     RP     45%   44%   12%        John Hiller     Mike Remlinger     Tippy Martinez
Jon Rauch         RP     33%   53%   14%        Gene Garber           Rod Beck       Donnie Moore
Jose Mijares      RP     31%   50%   19%       Mike Stanton         Tom Gorman       Steve Wilson
Matt Capps        RP     28%   54%   18%         Steve Reed     Larry Andersen         Mike Burns
Francisco Liriano SP     50%   44%    6%        Erik Bedard      Pete Schourek    Floyd Bannister
Scott Baker       SP     39%   53%    8%     Javier Vazquez     Dennis Leonard   Dennis Eckersley
Kevin Slowey      SP     26%   57%   16%          Jose Lima   Dennis Eckersley       Oil Can Boyd
Brian Duensing    SP      5%   46%   49%      John Barfield       J.D. Arteaga         Eric Knott
Alex Burnett      RP     10%   46%   44%       Tim Drummond     Todd Frohwirth      Gary Majewski
Carl Pavano       SP     21%   51%   27%          Paul Byrd    Bill Gullickson    Scott Sanderson
Ron Mahay         RP     18%   34%   49%       Jeff Fassero       Mike Stanton        Buddy Groom
Pat Neshek        RP     13%   40%   47%       Marino Salas      Matt Karchner    Ricky Bottalico
Anthony Slama     RP      7%   41%   52%         Jack Meyer       Calvin Jones       Bart Miadich
Randy Flores      RP     13%   38%   49%    Vic Darensbourg      Dave Righetti        Mike Mohler
Nick Blackburn    SP      7%   48%   45%       Carlos Silva        Josh Towers       Glenn Abbott
Kyle Waldrop      RP      2%   32%   66%       Pedro Borbon       John Doherty        Chad Kimsey
Liam Hendriks     SP      4%   44%   53%        Clay Parker   Elizardo Ramirez     Dave Telgheder
Kyle Gibson       SP      4%   47%   49%          Josh Fogg         Brent Gaff         Shawn Hill
Rob Delaney       RP      1%   26%   73%          Dan Giese        Ron Blazier         Steve Bray
Jim Hoey          RP      2%   25%   73%        Justin Kaye     Mike MacDougal       Roy Corcoran
Kane Holbrooks    RP      0%   18%   81%     Yoel Hernandez         Jim Clancy       Chris Mabeus
Scott Diamond     SP      1%   27%   72%       Jake Chapman        Mike Miller     Derek Thompson
Billy Bullock     RP      1%   19%   80%    Franklyn German        Justin Kaye       Tom Thurberg
David Bromberg    SP      0%   17%   83%    Steve Bourgeois        Gary Glover       Doug Brocail
Jeff Manship      SP      0%   14%   85%       Nate Cornejo      Doug Waechter          Bill King
Eric Hacker       SP      0%   10%   90%        John Snyder         Ryan Drese    Nelson Figueroa
Glen Perkins      SP      0%    7%   93%       Brian Shouse       Dave Gassner        Scott Downs
Yoslan Herrera    SP      0%    8%   91%  Dennis Tankersley        Ryan Jensen      David Manning
Carlos Gutierrez  SP      0%    1%   99%      Julien Tucker     Willis Roberts       Julian Leyva
Anthony Swarzak   SP      0%    2%   98%     Kyle Middleton    Cameron Reimers    Greg Biercevicz
Mike Maroth       SP      3%   12%   85%     Chris Michalak         Robert Lee    Andrew Lorraine
Tim Lahey         RP      0%    2%   98%        Jim Dedrick      David Walters      Marty McLeary
Charlie Zink      SP      0%    4%   96%       Jamey Wright        Dick Fowler         Alan Benes
Deolis Guerra     SP      0%    0%  100%         Rick Bauer       Ty Hartshorn       Jim Blueberg

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Justin Morneau          35%      56%      66%       1%       2%      18%      51%       0%
Joe Mauer               67%      77%      18%       9%       0%       2%      30%       0%
Jim Thome                5%      41%      52%       0%       0%      17%      39%       0%
Jason Kubel              8%       9%      18%       1%       1%      10%       6%       0%
Delmon Young            32%       2%      10%      16%       1%       4%       2%       1%
Michael Cuddyer          7%       7%       5%       2%       6%       1%       2%       0%
Denard Span             18%      20%       1%       0%      56%       0%       1%      40%
Tsuyoshi Nishioka       22%       8%       3%       2%      77%       1%       2%      75%
Danny Valencia           6%       1%       1%       7%       1%       1%       0%       0%
Ben Revere              22%       7%       0%       0%      11%       0%       0%      77%
Joe Benson               0%       1%       2%       0%      11%       2%       0%       1%
Jeff Bailey              3%       6%       2%       0%       2%       0%       1%       0%
Alexi Casilla            6%       4%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       4%
Luke Hughes              1%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Ray Chang                3%       3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brandon Roberts          5%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       2%
Matt Tolbert             4%       1%       0%       0%       5%       0%       0%       0%
Justin Huber             1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Chris Parmelee           0%       0%       0%       2%       3%       0%       0%       0%
Brock Peterson           0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
D’Angelo Jimenez         2%       3%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Nick Punto               1%       4%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       2%
Trevor Plouffe           0%       0%       0%       1%       4%       0%       0%       0%
Steve Holm               2%       4%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brian Dinkelman          0%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Jason Repko              0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       2%
Rene Tosoni              1%       2%       1%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%
Aaron Hicks              0%       2%       0%       0%       6%       0%       0%       3%
Chase Lambin             0%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Rene Rivera              1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Dustin Martin            0%       0%       0%       0%       7%       0%       0%       3%
Matthew Brown            0%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Matt Macri               0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jacque Jones             1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Erik Lis                 0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Drew Butera              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Toby Gardenhire          0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Joe Nathan                68%        85%        97%        10%        71%
Brian Fuentes             45%        83%        93%         2%        81%
Jon Rauch                 26%        76%        28%        26%        78%
Jose Mijares              31%        75%        40%         9%        66%
Matt Capps                22%        71%        24%        27%        63%
Francisco Liriano         15%        79%        72%         3%        84%
Scott Baker                8%        69%        39%        33%        42%
Kevin Slowey               5%        54%        16%        83%        21%
Brian Duensing             4%        40%         1%         8%        68%
Alex Burnett               7%        42%         6%         0%        81%
Carl Pavano                6%        41%         2%        82%        33%
Ron Mahay                 13%        44%        22%         7%        47%
Pat Neshek                13%        44%        26%         1%        68%
Anthony Slama              5%        35%        71%         0%        69%
Randy Flores              13%        42%        14%         1%        66%
Nick Blackburn             1%        21%         1%        47%        31%
Kyle Waldrop               2%        24%         0%         4%        86%
Liam Hendriks              0%        14%         0%         7%        50%
Kyle Gibson                0%        17%         0%         0%        63%
Rob Delaney                1%        18%        13%         3%        16%
Jim Hoey                   1%        16%        36%         0%        71%
Kane Holbrooks             0%        12%         1%         0%        58%
Scott Diamond              0%         6%         1%         0%        89%
Billy Bullock              1%        11%        43%         0%        64%
David Bromberg             0%         3%         0%         0%        43%
Jeff Manship               0%         3%         0%         1%        48%
Eric Hacker                0%         1%         0%         0%        63%
Glen Perkins               0%         1%         0%         3%        18%
Yoslan Herrera             0%         2%         0%         1%        46%
Carlos Gutierrez           0%         0%         0%         0%        60%
Anthony Swarzak            0%         0%         0%         0%        15%
Mike Maroth                1%         7%         2%         4%        32%
Tim Lahey                  0%         2%         1%         0%        28%
Charlie Zink               0%         1%         0%         0%        45%
Deolis Guerra              0%         0%         0%         0%         4%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Baltimore Orioles
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
Houston Astros
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 31, 2010 at 05:41 PM | 33 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. WillYoung Posted: December 31, 2010 at 07:27 PM (#3720865)
How many teams have guaranteed the second lower projected hitter to have a major league spot?

Oh, and I would assume Kubel's LF/RF ratings would be Pr just like most of the Twins OF.
   2. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: December 31, 2010 at 07:40 PM (#3720872)
The Twins spent more than the Cardinals, Dodgers, Braves and Rangers o_o
Small market my ##.
   3. Accent Shallow Posted: December 31, 2010 at 07:57 PM (#3720878)
How many teams have guaranteed the second lower projected hitter to have a major league spot?

I was hoping this was Nick Punto, or maybe Gardenhire's kid. Unfortunately (SPOILERS!) it's the backup catcher.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: December 31, 2010 at 08:03 PM (#3720883)
Yeah, not clear why Kubel doesn't have any defensive ratings -- about 1600 innings in the OF the last 3 years. Or is he just beyond PO? :-) But I'm stunned to learn that Cuddyer has 4 starts in CF the last 3 years.

Not much else to say. Nice comps for Span, nicer than expected comps for Baker (as in those are pretty big names and all really good at various points in their career).

And the Twins have a higher payroll than the Dodgers? The Dodgers should be embarrassed, new stadium revenue or not.

Joe Mauer .305 .382 .442 2397 9001 1335 2747 529 38 208 1261 1148 909 77 121

Does that make the HoF? The 121 OPS+ puts him just behind Posada (who has far fewer PA) and just ahead of Fisk and Simmons (who both have about 800 more PA). The 300 BA will help a lot, 2nd to Piazza among non-30s Cs and, by the time Mauer retires, presumably so will the 382 OBP, slightly better than Piazza and Posada. 3 GG should cement the defensive rep barring some sea change in fancy catcher defensive stats (and attitudes towards them). And of course an MVP.

The RBI total isn't particularly impressive, even for a C but I believe that would be a record for runs scored by a C (perhaps depending on how one defines "C"). Current record seems to be Fisk 1276 (using his career total).

The remaining question then is whether he can stay healthy behind the plate. He's got 700 games catching right now, a rather Torre-esque total (837 starts) ... and Torre had a 128 OPS+ and an MVP and 9 AS games. Of course Torre and Simmons might well belong in the HoF.

I'm just surprised the decision (using HoF voting history, not Primer standards) is even this close.
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 31, 2010 at 08:03 PM (#3720884)
Oops, sorry I missed Kubel's defense. PO in right, looks like he might eke out a FR in left.
   6. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 31, 2010 at 08:05 PM (#3720886)
I'm just surprised the decision (using HoF voting history, not Primer standards) is even this close.

I think if Mauer doesn't get in with that line, I think he has a case for justifiable homicide.
   7. Boxkutter Posted: December 31, 2010 at 08:12 PM (#3720889)
The Matt Capps ERA seems much higher than expected. His ERA the past four years has been 2.28, 3.02, 5.80, and 2.47. With the exception of the unlucky 2009 (xFIP of 4.37), his ERA+ has never been below 140 in the past four years. This projection basically has him as a league average RP, when he has been much better than that over the course of his career.
   8. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 31, 2010 at 08:18 PM (#3720896)
The Twins spent more than the Cardinals, Dodgers, Braves and Rangers o_o
Small market my ##.


That market was always a sleeping giant. Pretty decent sized metro area, with a good fanbase. They now have their two biggest impediments out of the way - shitty stadium and shitty owner. They will make the transition from small/mid-sized market to "pretty big market" the way Cleveland and Seattle did in the 90s and how Philly and Detroit did in the 00s.
   9. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: December 31, 2010 at 08:21 PM (#3720898)
I was surprised Mauer only projects to hit 208 HR. If you'd asked me for a guess, I probably would have said about 400, but he really hasn't been racking them up. Still, going forward that's only about 80% of his HR rate to date (no idea if that's normal...).
   10. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: December 31, 2010 at 08:44 PM (#3720917)
Thanks Dan!

On Nishioka: you've got him about where I do offensively, based on stats. Having said that, I'll take the under - I don't think he's a fast as this suggests and is otherwise slappy enough that pitchers will challenge him. As for his D - man, it shouldn't be easier to get data on guys from Cuba than Japan, huh? Naively, those are the same range values I'd give him, but I think he'll be a bit error prone. That comment is strictly based on reading and limited observation, not anything statistical.
One more not on him - here's a tweet from CJ Nitkowski:
AAA & AAAA middle infielders are wishing they were Japanese imports tonight RT @mlbtraderumors: Twins, Nishioka Agree To 3/$10M Deal.

I liked this deal for Twins, but the error bars are big enough that he could easily be right (particularly when you add the posting fee into the equation).
---
Unrelated, another CJ tweet taught me that, in Japan, "Jersey Shore" is called "Macaroni Rascals". So, there's that.
   11. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: December 31, 2010 at 08:49 PM (#3720922)
Oh, also, Jose Morales is another caught between orgs guy (MIN -> COL) - would you mind floating his projection, if it's already complete?
   12. Boxkutter Posted: December 31, 2010 at 09:20 PM (#3720946)
Oh, also, Jose Morales is another caught between orgs guy (MIN -> COL) - would you mind floating his projection, if it's already complete?


Jayson Werth too.
   13. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: December 31, 2010 at 09:25 PM (#3720950)
One more Nishioka bit - here's his defensive stats for 2010 (led thE PL in errors, po, and assists - in part because he was finally healthy and played every defensive inning for 'em). It's a translated blog entry (japanesebaseball.com ... *please* bring back your stats pages) - scroll to 'Nishioka hardness' to get to his (and the other starting SS) bit.
   14. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 31, 2010 at 09:59 PM (#3720964)
They will make the transition from small/mid-sized market to "pretty big market" the way Cleveland and Seattle did in the 90s


Hopefully for them, not the way Cleveland did.
   15. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 31, 2010 at 10:05 PM (#3720967)
The Matt Capps ERA seems much higher than expected. His ERA the past four years has been 2.28, 3.02, 5.80, and 2.47. With the exception of the unlucky 2009 (xFIP of 4.37), his ERA+ has never been below 140 in the past four years. This projection basically has him as a league average RP, when he has been much better than that over the course of his career.


Capps's xFIP, by year:

2006: 3.97
2007: 4.31
2008: 3.95
2009: 4.37
2010: 3.45

2011 ZiPS: 3.90

"Luck" giveth, and "luck" taketh away...
   16. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 31, 2010 at 10:15 PM (#3720982)

Oh, also, Jose Morales is another caught between orgs guy (MIN -> COL) - would you mind floating his projection, if it's already complete?


Also Orlando Hudson
   17. A triple short of the cycle Posted: December 31, 2010 at 10:17 PM (#3720984)
If your three comps (Kevin Slowey) are Jose Lima, Eck, and Oil Can Boyd, does it mean you are nuts?
   18. Justin T is going to crush some tacos Thursday Posted: December 31, 2010 at 10:25 PM (#3720994)
Hopefully for them, not the way Cleveland did.

Or the way Seattle did.
   19. Walt Davis Posted: January 01, 2011 at 02:38 AM (#3721104)
I think if Mauer doesn't get in with that line, I think he has a case for justifiable homicide.

Does Simmons get the same treatment?

JM: .305/.382/.442, 121 OPS+, 9000 PA
TS: 285/348/437, 117 OPS+, 9700 PA, 1700 starts at C

Mauer's currently 1,000 starts behind at C which is a lot, especially since he's averaged about 110 per season. If you take a look at the bulk of Simmons' career (dropping the pitiful end and the age 18-20 short stints) you get 8874 PA with a line of 288/350/445, 121 OPS+ in 8874 PA from ages 21-35.

Mauer obviously comes up nicely in this comp on OBP and wins the career OPS+ battle so he's definitely ahead. Does Simmons at least get a reduction in charge to manslaughter?

I'm somewhat nitpicking since you said "that line". Add in Mauer's 300 BA, MVP, GGs and presumably many AS games to come and, from most voters' perspective, he looks not at all like Simmons.

But the 121 OPS+ isn't THAT impressive. It's a little better than Simmons (not elected) and Fisk (who probably makes it 1st ballot in any other election), it's worse than Posada (in more PA), it's worse than Berra, it's much worse than Bench. It's oddly equal to Tettleton, much worse than Tenace (not much of a C). :-) If he were to move from C in another 2-3 years, he'd be below Torre.

Like I hinted, the easiest answer to this is that Simmons for sure and Torre probably belong in the HoF. Heck, Porter and Freehan have decent cases and Pudge II will go in of course (or be blackballed).

Part of the "problem" is that, from a hitting perspective, there's not much to distinguish the non-Piazza catchers. It's Gary Carter at 115 up to Cochrane at 128 in OPS+ terms with Simmons, Posada and a few short career guys in-between. Durability (as a C) and defense seem to carry the day in the last 30 years.

Anyway, I remain surprised at how "close" it is. It's not like he projects as the #2 hitting C behind Piazza or anything. Well, not in OPS+ terms probably does in WAR batting. He's got one full-time C behind him in OPS+ who wasn't elected and a part-time C pretty well ahead of him who wasn't elected.
   20. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: January 01, 2011 at 03:11 AM (#3721114)
Well, Mauer's defensive rep is quite a bit better than Simmons' (who I 'voted' for in the recent VC thread). But - I don't disagree with your main point.
   21. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: January 01, 2011 at 07:47 AM (#3721176)
dan, i think your jacque jones career projection will prove deadly accurate.
   22. Austin Posted: January 01, 2011 at 08:52 AM (#3721187)
Dan, how does ZiPS handle Japanese imports? The error bars for Nishioka are pretty big, I'm sure, but how much should we trust his median projection (particularly the defense, since I'm not even sure whether you can get sufficiently detailed data from Japanese baseball)?

ZiPS also seems surprisingly bearish on Liriano. I guess his 2008 and 2009 were nothing special, and he has a history of underperforming his xFIP, but I would take the over on a 3.92/109 ERA/ERA+ (not that my opinion really means anything next to that of the finely honed system). So would others, judging by the fan projections on Fangraphs, although what we envision for him next year is skewed by his monster performance FIP-wise this year - er, last year.
   23. Gamingboy Posted: January 01, 2011 at 04:49 PM (#3721253)
The Twins should compete as usual, but I don't think they're a step ahead of the Tigers or White Sox right now.



Yes, but can they beat the Tigers and/or White Sox in one-game playoffs?
   24. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 01, 2011 at 05:44 PM (#3721291)
But the 121 OPS+ isn't THAT impressive. It's a little better than Simmons (not elected) and Fisk (who probably makes it 1st ballot in any other election), it's worse than Posada (in more PA), it's worse than Berra, it's much worse than Bench. It's oddly equal to Tettleton, much worse than Tenace (not much of a C). :-) If he were to move from C in another 2-3 years, he'd be below Torre.

Berra and Bench are within 1 pt. (125 and 126 OPS+ respectively). That 1 pt. makes Mauer much worse than Bench?
   25. John DiFool2 Posted: January 01, 2011 at 05:45 PM (#3721293)
But the 121 OPS+ isn't THAT impressive.


Note his current OPS+ is 136. I'll easily take the over on 121 for his career; doing a quick and dirty examination of HoF catchers shows that most don't suffer that kind of steep dropoff (if they do, they are usually forced to retire before a string of poor seasons drops their peak numbers back down that far). Gary Carter and Piazza did (for his last 3 seasons), but still -15 points is pretty drastic. Of course Mauer is no HoFer (yet), and could undergo the kind of sudden and steep dropoffs around age 30 that we've seen from the likes of Tony Pena or Rich Gedman (Pena's D let him stay in the league, Gedman's didn't).
   26. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 01, 2011 at 06:30 PM (#3721319)
Note his current OPS+ is 136. I'll easily take the over on 121 for his career; doing a quick and dirty examination of HoF catchers shows that most don't suffer that kind of steep dropoff (if they do, they are usually forced to retire before a string of poor seasons drops their peak numbers back down that far).

There's a lot of selection bias there. Star catchers that age unusually well are more likely to be Hall of Famers than star catchers that don't age well. Mauer's also at very the top end of star catchers through 27 , so risk is fairly one-sided. He wouldn't be alone, Bench retired very early in his decline cycle, while Piazza lost 13 points from age 27 and Fisk lost 20.
   27. Walt Davis Posted: January 03, 2011 at 05:39 AM (#3722176)
That 1 pt. makes Mauer much worse than Bench?

Well, duh. Yogi said it best: "sometimes it's the things that don't matter that make all the difference."*

Not sure what I was thinking. Maybe the language side of my brain said OPS+ but the numbers side was thinking of WAR? Maybe I was thinking Bench caught a lot more than Berra? (except he didn't, I thought Berra spent more time in the OF than that.) Maybe I was just overstating my case?

The important thing is we'll never know

* as far as I know, Yogi never said this.

Note his current OPS+ is 136.

That's sort of what I was getting at. I was expecting "oh man, Mauer is just a stud!" Instead I got something sensible. I'm the official Voice of Reason (tm) on career projections around here and I don't like ZiPS crowding my turf!

There's a lot of selection bias there. Star catchers that age unusually well are more likely to be Hall of Famers than star catchers that don't age well. Mauer's also at very the top end of star catchers through 27 , so risk is fairly one-sided. He wouldn't be alone, Bench retired very early in his decline cycle, while Piazza lost 13 points from age 27 and Fisk lost 20.

Interesting point. Years ago when Kendall was traded to Oakland, I took a look at that (sorta). Those would have been older Cs (Kendall was 31) and I recall that, for most Cs, the offensive decline didn't seem so severe. Fairly standard looking age-based decline from 31 to 33 (the years remaining on Kendall's contract) but I was eyeballing it more than anything. A lot fell off the table durability-wise and a number did both. Kendall took the less familiar path, remaining durable and falling off a cliff offensively (108 OPS+ through age 30, 102 from 28-30 to 77 from 31-33).

Piazza
24-27: 158 OPS+
28-30: 157 OPS+
31-33: 147 OPS+
34-37: 113 OPS+

Ouch.

Fisk is tougher because he was hurt at 26 and 27 (and 31?) which may have derailed his hitting ... but it kept him from catching which may have helped. One of the entertaining things about my Kendall look was that neither Fisk nor Boone showed up on my list of heavily used Cs through age 30.

Fisk
24-27: 138
28-30: 125
31-33: 110
34-37: 110
38-42: 112 (pulled down by one awful season)

Fisk probably has one of the oddest aging curves in MLB history.

If I did my math right, ZiPS is projecting Mauer to average about a 111 OPS+ for the remaining 5400 projected PAs of his career. Not sure how impressed the voters are going to be with that either. :-)
   28. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: January 03, 2011 at 07:03 PM (#3722354)
Is that the D'Angelo Jimenez?
   29. JMPH Posted: January 03, 2011 at 07:24 PM (#3722360)
The one and only, Davo.
   30. thetailor Posted: January 03, 2011 at 08:50 PM (#3722419)
Is that the D'Angelo Jimenez?

The one and only, Davo.

Is he better than Alfonso Soriano yet?
   31. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: January 03, 2011 at 09:46 PM (#3722478)
In terms of opportunity cost, he is.
   32. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: January 04, 2011 at 05:00 AM (#3722803)
Nishioka splits for last year. (not trying to harp on this - found it by accident (trying to find out where D'Antona might go in '11) and figured it was better than a different version of those #s I'd posted somewhere else on this site.)
   33. Jose Molina wants a nickname like "A-Rod" Posted: January 04, 2011 at 10:46 AM (#3722886)
In Joe Sheehan's mind I'm sure he is

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