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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, February 07, 2011

2011 ZiPS Projections - New York Mets

The team’s not going to trumpet it to the world, but expectations regarding winning in 2011 are pretty low.  The team isn’t terrible, but Sandy Alderson and has band of misfits have a lot of legacy problems leftover from the Minaya years and a lot of questions around their frontline talent.  Luckily, most of the questions, from the health issues of Beltran and Bay and Santana, to Wright’s defense to Reyes’ future in New York will be answered this season, giving Alderson a clear path forward.

Thanks to the Wilpon problems, the answer in the near future is unlikely to be an aggressive spending push to challenge the Phillies.  Between the Wilpons, the McCourts, Moores, Jeff Loria, Hicks, and so on, it’s hard to see exactly what MLB is gaining from needing owner approval of new owners.  As far as I can tell, Bud Selig and the welfare queens that make up MLB’s ownership group are worse at screening owners than Paul von Hindenburg was at screening chancellors.

Overall, the Mets have enough potential front-line talent to win 85 games or so, enough to make it interesting for a few months with some luck, but I think the upside this season is pretty limited.  Alderson’s goal for 2011 is essentially to keep the team just non-horrible enough to buy him some time to fix the problems.

A couple of side notes.  It’s perfectly acceptable to criticize individual projections, but for the love of God, don’t announce in your blog that I think Mets catchers will combine for 2000 at-bats or that Wilmer Flores will be the starting shortstop or that Frankie Cats is still in the organization.  I don’t, and I clearly laid out in the disclaimer why certain players appear here and why you can’t simply add up columns to get team totals (or at least I think I did).

Also, ZiPS projections will be appearing in the Amazin’ Avenue annual.  I don’t know exactly what will appear from ZiPS, but Eric Simon has access to quite a lot of ODDIBE probability stuff.

I might possibly have missed a minor league signing elsewhere or two - these projections have been in the age for a couple of weeks.  I was late Friday with the formatting so I waited until today (competing with the Super Bowl coverage and the normal weekend traffic dropoff and I’d probably struggle to get a couple thousand views of this).

Next up:  Phillies

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
David Wright      R    3B   28   .282 .361 .481 155 586  94 165  36   3  25  99  76 142  23   9  127
Carlos Beltran    B    CF   34   .270 .354 .447  99 367  52  99  20   3  13  54  49  64  10   2  116
Jose Reyes        B    SS   28   .284 .337 .439 122 517  80 147  27  10  11  54  41  60  39  11  109
Jason Bay         R    LF   32   .252 .349 .455 122 444  71 112  22   4  20  76  63 123   9   1  117
Ike Davis         L    1B   24   .257 .342 .447 152 553  76 142  35   2  22  79  73 154   2   2  113
Angel Pagan       B    CF   29   .278 .326 .424 114 417  60 116  23   7   8  52  31  68  21   6  102
Dan Murphy        L    1B   26   .278 .329 .435  97 331  42  92  22   3   8  55  26  46   5   2  106
Scott Hairston    R    LF   31   .254 .316 .423 110 338  44  86  19   1  12  44  28  73   6   1   97
Josh Thole        L    C    24   .273 .342 .380 140 461  48 126  28   3   5  49  47  59   4   2   96
Nick Evans        R    1B   25   .248 .305 .425 148 525  70 130  34   4  17  62  43 122   1   1   96
Lucas Duda        L    LF   25   .243 .323 .408 142 522  62 127  34   2  16  70  56 138   1   3   97
Fernando Tatis    R    1B   36   .252 .316 .403  85 238  27  60  13   1   7  30  19  47   2   1   94
Val Pascucci      R    RF   32   .218 .319 .401 103 344  43  75  16   1  15  46  49 113   2   1   95
Kirk Nieuwenhuis  L    CF   23   .245 .302 .411 147 608  99 149  40   5  17  78  47 170  13   7   92
Frank Catalanotto L    LF   37   .259 .319 .370  52 108  11  28   7   1   1   8   8  15   1   0   87
Justin Turner     R    2B   26   .267 .320 .377 129 483  68 129  27   1   8  49  34  71   6   4   89
Fernando Martinez L    RF   22   .245 .300 .411 106 380  52  93  22   1  13  45  21  88   4   2   91
Mike Hessman      R    3B   33   .216 .298 .414 110 389  48  84  19   2  18  58  40 130   1   2   91
Ronny Paulino     R    C    30   .257 .310 .370  90 300  30  77  16   0   6  37  24  52   1   1   84
Russ Adams        L    2B   30   .243 .299 .384 107 378  50  92  19   2  10  43  29  72   4   2   84
Brad Emaus        R    3B   25   .240 .315 .357 147 558  67 134  31   2  10  63  61  90   9   3   81
Zach Lutz         R    3B   25   .227 .311 .381  97 365  41  83  18   1  12  50  40 109   1   2   87
Jason Pridie      L    CF   27   .254 .286 .378 103 418  49 106  16   6   8  41  18  91  17   6   79
Luis Castillo     B    2B   35   .259 .345 .308 103 347  49  90   8   3   1  27  46  37  12   4   80
Reese Havens      L    2B   24   .223 .306 .373  82 319  36  71  14   2  10  34  33  86   2   3   84
Andy Green        R    2B   33   .231 .305 .359  84 273  39  63  13   2   6  28  27  57   3   2   80
Sean Ratliff      L    CF   24   .236 .279 .393 151 590  76 139  32   5  17  75  34 195   8   6   80
Ruben Tejada      R    SS   21   .250 .315 .330 156 515  63 129  25   2   4  42  38  86  10   5   76
Eric Campbell     R    3B   24   .241 .311 .355 108 394  52  95  22   1   7  44  35  78   3   6   81
Chin-lung Hu      R    SS   27   .254 .285 .340  98 314  38  80  12   3   3  31  14  42   7   1   69
Dusty Ryan        R    C    26   .209 .299 .354  92 297  31  62  14   1   9  35  37 114   2   1   77
Jesus Feliciano   L    RF   32   .272 .311 .327 132 452  53 123  18   2   1  31  22  49   7   7   74
Mike Cervenak     R    3B   34   .251 .279 .360 115 450  49 113  23   1   8  46  13  62   2   2   72
Wilmer Flores     R    SS   19   .248 .284 .361 156 642  63 159  32   4  11  72  28 108   3   5   74
J.R. House        R    C    31   .241 .287 .344 103 381  38  92  18   0   7  41  23  53   0   1   71
Brahiam Maldonado R    LF   25   .216 .270 .361 118 421  41  91  19   3  12  46  26 167   8   4   70
Luis Hernandez    B    SS   27   .248 .282 .328 117 408  46 101  16   4   3  39  19  64   5   4   65
Jordany Valdespin L    2B   23   .246 .276 .358  98 402  50  99  19   4   6  38  13  86  13  13   71
Mike Nickeas      R    C    28   .222 .302 .295  71 234  18  52  11   0   2  28  25  53   1   1   63
Jonathan Malo     R    SS   27   .208 .274 .295 103 312  37  65  12   3   3  26  26  77   6   4   55

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
David Wright                                  FR/95
Carlos Beltran                                                        AV/69
Jose Reyes                                            AV/98
Jason Bay                                                     FR/54
Ike Davis                    VG/111
Angel Pagan                                                  VG/108  VG/132   VG/91
Dan Murphy                   VG/132  FR/117  FR/116          AV/126
Scott Hairston                                                AV/70  FR/157  FR/114
Josh Thole               AV  FR/109
Nick Evans                    AV/56          FR/112          AV/128          AV/128
Lucas Duda                   AV/103                          FR/122          FR/122
Fernando Tatis               AV/118  PO/111  PO/100          AV/114           FR/93
Val Pascucci                 AV/150                                          PO/122
Kirk Nieuwenhuis                                             AV/112  AV/120  AV/132
Frank Catalanotto             FR/98                          PO/119          PO/119
Justin Turner                        FR/123  AV/111  PO/116
Fernando Martinez                                            VG/103   FR/69  VG/103
Mike Hessman                 AV/120           AV/60  PO/112                  FR/107
Ronny Paulino            AV
Russ Adams                           AV/130  FR/106  PO/109  AV/136          FR/118
Brad Emaus                           AV/115  AV/140
Zach Lutz                    FR/109          FR/114
Jason Pridie                                                 VG/102  VG/110  VG/108
Luis Castillo                        FR/103
Reese Havens                         AV/108          FR/121
Andy Green                            AV/99  FR/118  PO/113  FR/102
Sean Ratliff                                                 VG/150  FR/115  AV/105
Ruben Tejada                         VG/126          VG/117
Eric Campbell                 AV/98          FR/122          FR/105
Chin-lung Hu                         VG/110           AV/96
Dusty Ryan               FR  FR/142
Jesus Feliciano                                               VG/67   FR/66   AV/75
Mike Cervenak                AV/105          FR/118          AV/111          FR/109
Wilmer Flores                                        FR/116
J.R. House               FR
Brahiam Maldonado                                            AV/133  PO/107  FR/102
Luis Hernandez                       AV/102           AV/88
Jordany Valdespin                    AV/132          FR/136
Mike Nickeas             AV  AV/112
Jonathan Malo                        AV/126  AV/100  FR/108  AV/104  FR/130  AV/105

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Johan Santana     L      32     3.39    13    7   27   27   180.3  168   68   17   49  145   120
R.A. Dickey       R      36     3.86    11    8   28   25   170.0  173   73   17   46  100   105
Mike Pelfrey      R      27     4.12    12   11   32   31   192.3  203   88   15   65  115    99
Chris Capuano     L      32     4.15     6    7   28   17   110.7  112   51   12   35   89    98
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Jonathon Niese    L      25     4.27     9    9   29   29   164.3  171   78   17   59  131    95
Jenrry Mejia      R      21     4.30     7    7   22   22    98.3   98   47    8   50   73    95
John Maine        R      30     4.34     5    5   15   15    76.7   71   37    9   41   67    94
Kelvim Escobar    R      35     4.38     1    1    2    2    12.3   13    6    1    5    8    93
Chris Young       R      32     4.53     3    3   10   10    51.7   48   26    7   25   42    90
Pat Misch         L      29     4.75     7    8   34   20   134.7  154   71   16   35   72    86
Dillon Gee        R      25     4.88     7    9   23   23   127.3  139   69   19   39   96    83
Armando Rodriguez R      23     4.96     7   10   28   28   132.3  140   73   13   73   97    82
Oliver Perez      L      29     5.40     4    6   22   18    96.7   95   58   15   67   87    75
Tobi Stoner       R      26     5.68     6   11   24   22   123.7  146   78   19   52   71    72
Adam Pettyjohn    L      34     5.77     4    7   31   11    82.7  101   53   11   38   42    70


Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Francisco RodrigueR      29     3.13     4    2   61    0    60.3   48   21    5   29   71   130
Taylor Buchholz   R      29     3.65     3    2   44    0    49.3   47   20    4   17   39   111
Bobby Parnell     R      26     3.76     2    2   61    0    69.3   66   29    6   26   62   108
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
D. J. Carrasco    R      34     3.81     3    2   51    1    75.7   72   32    6   29   59   107
Elmer Dessens     R      40     4.15     3    2   37    0    39.0   40   18    4   13   22    98
Manuel Alvarez    R      25     4.48     4    5   49    0    62.3   63   31    8   25   49    91
Manny Acosta      R      30     4.50     3    4   54    1    60.0   57   30    8   31   53    90
Ryota Igarashi    R      32     4.71     3    3   47    0    49.7   50   26    6   25   43    86
Pedro Beato       R      24     4.76     2    2   45    0    56.7   59   30    6   26   36    85
Boof Bonser       R      29     4.79     1    2   19    3    41.3   45   22    5   14   33    85
Mike O’Connor     L      30     4.87     4    5   35    8    77.7   87   42   10   26   53    84
Roy Merritt       L      25     5.21     3    5   56    0    67.3   72   39    9   37   47    78
John Lujan        R      27     5.52     2    4   47    0    60.3   68   37    7   37   42    74
Josh Stinson      R      23     5.53     4    8   38   11    97.7  109   60   12   60   60    74


Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
David Wright         .284  .358  .472  2584  9864  1496  2805   606    43   385  1582  1148  1996   361   121
Jose Reyes           .277  .326  .427  2191  9346  1404  2591   453   175   200   932   671   985   607   100
Carlos Beltran       .276  .352  .474  2132  8172  1343  2255   450    79   336  1316   966  1412   329   114
Luis Castillo        .287  .365  .347  1899  7117  1084  2045   207    64    29   490   875   913   390    91
Jason Bay            .264  .358  .475  1676  6096   978  1612   330    49   285  1035   840  1562   113   119
Angel Pagan          .273  .320  .415  1201  4217   583  1153   229    63    80   501   305   640   172    97
Ronny Paulino        .261  .314  .370   942  3145   305   822   157     1    61   373   245   524    10    82

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Johan Santana      214  126    1    3.36  527  450     3152 2824 1176  338  886 2828    127
Mike Pelfrey       148  134    1    4.18  391  383     2354 2493 1093  180  815 1395     98

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
David Wright      3B     55%  27%  11%   5%   1%      Gil McDougald        Scott Rolen      Pinky Higgins
Carlos Beltran    CF     55%  23%  16%   5%   1%     Jerry Mumphrey          Roy WhiteClaudell Washington
Jose Reyes        SS     65%  20%  11%   3%   1%      Rafael Furcal      Jimmy Rollins     Tony Fernandez
Jason Bay         LF     27%  31%  18%  15%   9%     Reggie Sanders         Eric Davis        Woodie Held
Ike Davis         1B      9%  23%  22%  29%  18%       Mario Valdez        David Ortiz       Adam LaRoche
Angel Pagan       CF     28%  25%  26%  15%   6%       Willie McGee      Mookie Wilson        Rajai Davis
Dan Murphy        1B      3%  17%  22%  35%  23%     Daryl Sconiers        Pete LaCock       Wally Joyner
Scott Hairston    LF      2%  10%  15%  26%  47%         John Valle     Brandon Berger        Matt Mieske
Josh Thole        C       9%  34%  29%  21%   7%      James Durrman      Mike Scioscia        Kurt Suzuki
Nick Evans        1B      1%   5%  11%  34%  49%    Kevin Sliwinski          Rich Aude          Larry See
Lucas Duda        LF      2%   8%  13%  24%  53%     Larry Broadway       Adam LaRoche    Marvin Lowrance
Fernando Tatis    1B      2%   5%  10%  31%  52%        Russ Morman       Rich Aurilia       Hector Lopez
Val Pascucci      RF      2%   7%  11%  22%  58%     Ty Van Burkleo        Alan Zinter       Jason Dubois
Kirk Nieuwenhuis  CF      8%  12%  22%  27%  30%        Myron White       Lloyd Moseby          Ty Gainey
Frank Catalanotto LF      1%   3%   4%  11%  80%        Russ Snyder       Brian Jordan       Mike Kingery
Justin Turner     2B      7%  10%  17%  28%  39%         Mark Lewis     Ramon Martinez       Billy Ripken
Fernando Martinez RF      2%   8%  11%  19%  60%        Jose Malave   Juan Encarnacion        Chris James
Mike Hessman      3B      2%   8%  15%  26%  49%       Brandon Inge     Mike Coolbaugh        Cody Ransom
Ronny Paulino     C       3%  14%  21%  32%  29%   Yorvit Torrealba         Jason Hill             Ed Ott
Russ Adams        2B      4%   7%  13%  27%  50%          Mike Bell       Shanie Dugas        Luis Rivera
Brad Emaus        3B      1%   5%  10%  21%  64%     Garrett Atkins        Paul Janish         Mark Kiger
Zach Lutz         3B      1%   5%  11%  23%  60%         Paul Russo      Mike Costanzo     Jared Sandberg
Jason Pridie      CF      2%   4%  11%  25%  57%       Lou Thornton    Herm Winningham  McKay Christensen
Luis Castillo     2B      3%   5%  10%  23%  58%      Mark McLemore      Jamey Carroll     Craig Counsell
Reese Havens      2B      5%   5%   8%  17%  65%         Todd Carey        Ken Bonifay  Chris Lombardozzi
Andy Green        2B      4%   4%   7%  16%  70%      Dave Matranga     Chris Petersen         Jed Hansen
Sean Ratliff      CF      1%   4%  11%  23%  61%        Myron White       Lloyd Moseby       Ralph Bryant
Ruben Tejada      SS      2%   5%  17%  30%  46%          Ivan Mesa       Pedro Chavez         David Lamb
Eric Campbell     3B      0%   2%   4%  11%  83%      Jared Goedert        Jose Valdez        John Hattig
Chin-lung Hu      SS      1%   4%  12%  27%  56%    Hector Rincones   Jackie Gutierrez      Craig Shipley
Dusty Ryan        C       2%   5%  10%  27%  57%     Henry Mercedes         David Ross        Dan Whitmer
Jesus Feliciano   RF      0%   0%   1%   2%  97%        Aaron Miles         Jim Eppard         Doc Cramer
Mike Cervenak     3B      1%   1%   3%   8%  88%      Frank Bolling     Mark Christman         Ron Coomer
Wilmer Flores     SS      4%   4%   9%  19%  65%      Fred Manrique     Gregorio Petit    Hector Rincones
J.R. House        C       0%   3%   7%  20%  70%        Raul Chavez        Rick Cerone      Scott Servais
Brahiam Maldonado LF      0%   0%   1%   2%  96%      Rondal Rollin  Michael Rodriguez  Willie Magallanes
Luis Hernandez    SS      0%   1%   5%  14%  79%      Craig Shipley        Casey Smith    Carlo Colombino
Jordany Valdespin 2B      0%   0%   0%   1%  98%         Greg Tabor         Tim Florez          Juan Melo
Mike Nickeas      C       0%   1%   3%  10%  86%       Chris Tremie        Joe Hietpas       Matt Garrick
Jonathan Malo     SS      0%   0%   1%   3%  95%       Erick Monzon         Brian Keck     Giomar Guevara

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Francisco RodrigueRP      55%    38%     7%        Dick Radatz         Brad Lidge           Jim Kern
Johan Santana     SP      73%    22%     5%          Jimmy Key        Bruce Hurst        Frank Viola
Taylor Buchholz   RP      29%    48%    23%    Rich Monteleone        Gene Nelson        Geoff Geary
Bobby Parnell     RP      29%    54%    17%         Steve Olin        Brad Clontz       Jose Alvarez
D. J. Carrasco    RP      31%    54%    15%     Rollie Fingers    Andy McGaffigan    Anthony Telford
R.A. Dickey       SP      37%    45%    18%        Gil Heredia       Kevin Tapani         Ken Forsch
Mike Pelfrey      SP      28%    52%    20%        Dennis Lamp    Chien-Ming Wang          Bob Moose
Chris Capuano     SP      27%    49%    23%        David Wells        Jon Matlack      Chris Hammond
Elmer Dessens     RP      27%    30%    42%         Jim Turner         Dolf Luque          Mike Ryba
Jonathon Niese    SP      18%    60%    22%       Mark Guthrie        Steve Trout Sterling Hitchcock
Jenrry Mejia      SP      21%    50%    28%     Shawn Hillegas         Mike Payne        Charlie Lea
John Maine        SP      19%    46%    36%          Kip Wells       Chan Ho Park         Bobby Witt
Kelvim Escobar    SP      39%    16%    45%        Tim Belcher        Mike Torrez       Steve Sparks
Manuel Alvarez    RP       6%    36%    57%   Jeremy Hernandez        Dario Veras       Greg Hansell
Manny Acosta      RP       5%    35%    59%      Chad Harville       Richie Lewis      Johnny Ruffin
Chris Young       SP      19%    35%    46%       Mark Gardner      Robert Person      Tim Wakefield
Ryota Igarashi    RP       5%    25%    70%         Mark Corey  Juan Eichelberger      Reggie Harris
Pat Misch         SP       8%    40%    53%       Eric Hillman       Chuck Stobbs         Eric Knott
Pedro Beato       RP       4%    26%    70%        Jimmy Myers        Steve Gomez       Jeremy Wedel
Boof Bonser       RP       5%    5%     90%       Randy O’Neal        John Wasdin          Donn Pall
Mike O’Connor     RP       4%    26%    70%        Tony Fossas          Chris Key       Tommy Phelps
Dillon Gee        SP       3%    35%    61%     Dave Telgheder       Keith Foulke       Oil Can Boyd
Armando Rodriguez SP       2%    33%    65%     Denny Bautista        Matt Albers         Kevin Ritz
Roy Merritt       RP       1%    14%    86%          Brad Weis       Paul Mancuso        Mike Dalton
Oliver Perez      SP       1%    15%    83%         David West         Ken Kravec         Herb Score
John Lujan        RP       0%     8%    92%     Don Timberlake         Jean Machi       Tim Corcoran
Josh Stinson      RP       0%     4%    96%     Willis Roberts      Ernie Delgado       Jerry Dipoto
Tobi Stoner       SP       0%     6%    94%     Kyle Middleton          Rich Yett       Nick Roberts
Adam Pettyjohn    SP       0%     5%    95%     Chris Michalak         Curt Young       Jason Jacome

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
David Wright            23%      31%      32%      16%       2%      26%      24%      22%
Carlos Beltran          15%      23%      14%       0%       0%       1%      11%       1%
Jose Reyes              26%       9%      10%       1%      53%       2%       6%      71%
Jason Bay                4%      19%      16%       0%       2%       8%      11%       0%
Ike Davis                4%      13%      11%      11%       1%      12%       7%       0%
Angel Pagan             20%       5%       4%       0%      20%       0%       1%      12%
Dan Murphy              19%       6%       6%       0%       1%       0%       2%       0%
Scott Hairston           1%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Josh Thole              13%      11%       0%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Nick Evans               1%       0%       2%       7%       3%       2%       0%       0%
Lucas Duda               1%       3%       2%       7%       0%       1%       1%       0%
Fernando Tatis           6%       4%       3%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Val Pascucci             0%       3%       2%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%
Kirk Nieuwenhuis         1%       0%       3%      29%      11%       5%       1%       2%
Frank Catalanotto       15%       9%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Justin Turner            9%       2%       1%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Fernando Martinez        2%       1%       4%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Mike Hessman             0%       0%       3%       0%       1%       2%       0%       0%
Ronny Paulino            6%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Russ Adams               1%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Brad Emaus               0%       1%       0%       2%       1%       1%       0%       1%
Zach Lutz                0%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jason Pridie             3%       0%       1%       0%      16%       0%       0%       4%
Luis Castillo            8%      15%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       3%
Reese Havens             1%       2%       2%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%
Andy Green               1%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Sean Ratliff             0%       0%       1%       5%      11%       4%       0%       0%
Ruben Tejada             1%       1%       0%       2%       1%       0%       0%       2%
Eric Campbell            1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Chin-lung Hu             4%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Dusty Ryan               0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jesus Feliciano         13%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Mike Cervenak            3%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Wilmer Flores            2%       0%       3%      14%       9%       4%       1%       0%
J.R. House               1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brahiam Maldonado        0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Luis Hernandez           2%       0%       0%       0%       5%       0%       0%       0%
Jordany Valdespin        2%       0%       1%       0%       4%       0%       0%       2%
Mike Nickeas             1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jonathan Malo            0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Francisco Rodrigue        55%        91%        96%         0%        87%
Johan Santana             36%        90%        17%        16%        76%
Taylor Buchholz           22%        70%        35%         9%        48%
Bobby Parnell             23%        73%        44%         2%        88%
D. J. Carrasco            25%        81%        10%         2%        84%
R.A. Dickey               13%        59%         2%        28%        70%
Mike Pelfrey               5%        53%         2%         5%        89%
Chris Capuano              7%        46%        26%         8%        49%
Elmer Dessens             21%        50%         2%        19%        67%
Jonathon Niese             3%        41%        15%         1%        68%
Jenrry Mejia               5%        41%         9%         0%        89%
John Maine                 4%        34%        44%         0%        62%
Kelvim Escobar            23%        39%         7%        23%        66%
Manuel Alvarez             4%        36%        12%         2%        51%
Manny Acosta               5%        33%        40%         0%        49%
Chris Young                7%        32%        25%         0%        40%
Ryota Igarashi             3%        23%        40%         0%        63%
Pat Misch                  1%        20%         0%        32%        54%
Pedro Beato                2%        23%         1%         0%        63%
Boof Bonser                5%        32%        26%        12%        67%
Mike O'Connor              3%        21%         4%         7%        54%
Dillon Gee                 0%        14%         7%         5%        18%
Armando Rodriguez          0%         9%         4%         0%        75%
Roy Merritt                0%         8%         2%         0%        50%
Oliver Perez               0%         4%        53%         0%        23%
John Lujan                 0%         6%         3%         0%        59%
Josh Stinson               0%         2%         0%         0%        48%
Tobi Stoner                0%         1%         0%         0%        19%
Adam Pettyjohn             0%         3%         0%         2%        39%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Baltimore Orioles
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
Houston Astros
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers
Minnesota Twins
San Francisco Giants
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers

Dan Szymborski Posted: February 07, 2011 at 05:43 PM | 116 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. My Grate Friend Peason's pants are rankled Posted: February 07, 2011 at 05:58 PM (#3745253)
roflmetz

EDIT: Just kidding. My real comment is a question: what is the number of innings that Johan would have to pitch in order to be considered an HOF lock?
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 07, 2011 at 06:08 PM (#3745256)
Boy, that rotation is much worse than I expected. The offense looks to be be pretty good though.
   3. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: February 07, 2011 at 06:25 PM (#3745275)
I dunno...I know it's easy to bag on the Mets, but this team doesn't look bad at all IMO. I agree that it's basically an 85 win team, but that means they just need a little bit of health and luck to win 90-95.

And the rotation is pretty decent -- 4 average to above average starters, with one borderline ace.
   4. MrMet33 Posted: February 07, 2011 at 06:27 PM (#3745279)
With the Mets 2B situation, I can see Josh Satin maybe getting a look before the end of the year.

Looks like Brad Holt wasn't worth projecting this year.
   5. villageidiom Posted: February 07, 2011 at 06:31 PM (#3745287)
EDIT: Just kidding. My real comment is a question: what is the number of innings that Johan would have to pitch in order to be considered an HOF lock?
His top comp is Jimmy Key? Wow.
   6. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 07, 2011 at 06:35 PM (#3745293)
His top comp is Jimmy Key? Wow.

I know, weird to think about, but Santana's K rate and fastball have really come down in recent years.
   7. jar75 Posted: February 07, 2011 at 06:35 PM (#3745294)
Hmm, that CF defensive rating looks a bit light for Pagan to me.
   8. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 07, 2011 at 06:36 PM (#3745296)
Holt was projected last year, so he'll probably be on the final spreadsheet. Won't be pretty though.
   9. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: February 07, 2011 at 06:36 PM (#3745297)
Once again David Wright is going to weigh the Mets down.
   10. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 07, 2011 at 06:36 PM (#3745298)
And the rotation is pretty decent -- 4 average to above average starters, with one borderline ace.

But that borderline ace is going to miss a big chunk of the season, and who knows how good he'll be if and when he gets back.

Take Johan out and your proj. ERA+'s are: 105, 99, 98, 96, 95,95, 94.
   11. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 07, 2011 at 06:37 PM (#3745300)
Oops, Pagan should be VG.
   12. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 07, 2011 at 06:38 PM (#3745301)
EDIT: Just kidding. My real comment is a question: what is the number of innings that Johan would have to pitch in order to be considered an HOF lock?
His ZiPS career projection is about equal to Kevin Brown and Curt Schilling, in the same ballpark as John Smoltz. If Santana gets there, he'll go in the Hall of Fame. Anything less than that, though, and I think he'll probably have to wait for a long while.

The big number with Santana, I think, isn't his IP but his wins. Two Cy Youngs plus a couple more big seasons are a very nice HoF peak, but he's only got 133 wins. If he gets over 200, into Schilling/Smoltz territory, that should do it. If he's short of 200, though, it's very hard for me to see Santana getting anywhere with the Hall.
   13. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: February 07, 2011 at 06:43 PM (#3745305)
But that borderline ace is going to miss a big chunk of the season, and who knows how good he'll be if and when he gets back.

Oops...I'd forgotten about that. Still, that leaves the mets with 4-5 averagish starters. That's not great of course, but if one or two exceed expectations they'll be in good shape. I'm not claiming that the Mets are going to be world beaters, but it seems like there's a lot of gloom and doom surrounding this team, and I don't think that's warranted.
   14. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 07, 2011 at 06:49 PM (#3745311)
I'm a little surprised by the Key comp, too. I'm getting a weighted average ERA+ of 136 for Santana in his age 29-31 seasons, and 120 for Key. I realize that's hardly the only level these pitchers get compared on - and maybe Key was a bit run-unlucky or Santana a bit run-lucky? - but there's a reason that comp initially seems wrong.
   15. Russ Posted: February 07, 2011 at 06:49 PM (#3745313)
Is there anyone NOT taking the under on the Jason Bay projection? I think even his mom would take the under on that projection.
   16. Juan V Posted: February 07, 2011 at 06:50 PM (#3745316)
A guy named Malo has the lowest projected OPS+. Awesome.
   17. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 07, 2011 at 06:53 PM (#3745319)
Oops...I'd forgotten about that. Still, that leaves the mets with 4-5 averagish starters.

Not really. Look at the names, and the IP projections.

Dickey, Pelfrey, Capuano, OK that's fine.

Then Niese and Meija, two near rookies with little track record. Then Maine, Escobar and Chris Young. Two of them aren't on the team anymore, and all three had very serious injuries.
   18. awebgsu Posted: February 07, 2011 at 07:00 PM (#3745331)
Any chance to get a Brandon Moore projection.
   19. BobbyS Posted: February 07, 2011 at 07:14 PM (#3745344)
Did the 'other' Chris Carter get traded again? or just an omission?

Kelvim's a workhorse! haha
   20. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: February 07, 2011 at 07:19 PM (#3745347)
I waited all offseason for THIS!!??
   21. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 07, 2011 at 07:27 PM (#3745358)
Carter signed a minor-league deal with Tampa Bay.

Moore will probably be in the final.
   22. Cowboy Popup Posted: February 07, 2011 at 07:35 PM (#3745370)
Is Castillo the projected starter? I think its amazing that Russ Adams has a higher projection than Castillo does.

Turner is a defensively challenged at second right? Gonna be an ugly year at the keystone for the Mets.

How about that R.A. Dickey projection though! I hope he just cruises for the next 10 years.
   23. BobbyS Posted: February 07, 2011 at 07:36 PM (#3745372)
Carter signed a minor-league deal with Tampa Bay.


Well boo. I guess I should have paid attention...I was totally anticipating his projection!
   24. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: February 07, 2011 at 07:37 PM (#3745374)
It's a pity teams feel the need to carry 12+ man staffs, 20-30 years ago, given Earl Weaver as a manager, this team would get 30 homers/100 ribbies out of a Hairston/Duda platoon...
   25. Walt Davis Posted: February 07, 2011 at 07:38 PM (#3745376)
Two of them aren't on the team anymore, and all three had very serious injuries.

And Capuano ain't exactly someone you can rely on for innings.

But it's not bad starter depth. Two guys will make it to about 180 IP and you'll have a bunch of guys around 100. It won't be pretty at times but there are worse out there.

Looking at Ike Davis's comps, I confused Mario Valdez with Otto Velez (also not a bad comp for Davis, but RHB). Sure looks like Valdez deserved a shot but never got it (or is that all ballpark?) ... then got hurt I assume?

The Reyes' comps are somewhat encouraging. OK, not HoF-quality but suggesting he'll still be an above-average SS 5-6 years from now (I know they're not career comps, I'm extrapolating :-).

Hairston looks like a nice pickup for this team. And if the Murphy 2B experiment actually works, it's not a bad lineup.

Now ... Dan, sorry if I've missed earlier explanations, but why do ZiPS career projections seem to (often) come out so high on PAs. Wright is projected to 11,000 PA. That's about top 30 all-time. Obviously that's possible but for a mean projection? Reyes also hits the 10,000 mark (top 75 all-time). I seem to be seeing this in a lot of the career projections (but maybe not as often as I think) -- e.g. I recall Heyward was around 10,000 PA. Does that make sense to you? Are there reasons (e.g. modern players playing longer)? Or is there something about how the ZiPS career projections work that overestimates playing time?

Feel free to tell me I'm wrong -- after all, there will be 5 players active next year already over 10,000 PA and 20 of the 70 with 10,000 PA retired 2001 or later -- but ZiPS career projections seem overly generous on playing time.
   26. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: February 07, 2011 at 07:44 PM (#3745380)
WRT Thole, 2008-2010, the median starting C had an OPS+ of 91/92
If Thole actually hits .273/.342/.380 I'd be happy....
   27. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: February 07, 2011 at 07:44 PM (#3745381)
Then Niese and Meija, two near rookies with little track record.

Niese has over 200 IP in the majors and has a pretty good track record.
   28. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: February 07, 2011 at 07:50 PM (#3745384)
Is Castillo the projected starter? I think its amazing that Russ Adams has a higher projection than Castillo does.

Turner is a defensively challenged at second right? Gonna be an ugly year at the keystone for the Mets.


No, Castillo is projected to be released in spring training. The starter is probably Murphy, maybe Emaus if he does well in Florida.
   29. Cowboy Popup Posted: February 07, 2011 at 07:54 PM (#3745390)
The starter is probably Murphy

Murphy huh? That should be entertaining, I'll be real interested to see if he can pull it off. I wonder how many players who are not natural second basemen are better defenders at second than LF.
   30. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 07, 2011 at 07:56 PM (#3745392)
Now ... Dan, sorry if I've missed earlier explanations, but why do ZiPS career projections seem to (often) come out so high on PAs. Wright is projected to 11,000 PA. That's about top 30 all-time. Obviously that's possible but for a mean projection? Reyes also hits the 10,000 mark (top 75 all-time). I seem to be seeing this in a lot of the career projections (but maybe not as often as I think) -- e.g. I recall Heyward was around 10,000 PA. Does that make sense to you?

All-in-all, I've only projected 10 players to have 10,000 PA that don't already have 9,000. Players are healthier today - by my quick count, 60% of 10,000 PA guys have played in MLB since 1980.
   31. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: February 07, 2011 at 08:02 PM (#3745398)
I think its amazing that Russ Adams has a higher projection than Castillo does.


I don't.
Russ Adams hit .285/.343/.411 in AAA in 2009, and .264/.333/.473 in 2010 (IL not PCL)
plus he hit .256/.325/.383 in the MLB the one time he qualified for the batting title

Castillo will be 35, is coming off a .235/.337/.267 year and has hit .270/.366/.315 (OPS+ of 85) over the past 3. I'd be surprised at a projection system that didn't project a better 2011 OPS+ for Adams

also wanted to point put that I am totally unsurprised that Turner's OPS+ projection is 8 points better than Emaus, as I've argued before, Turner has a better statistical track record
   32. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 07, 2011 at 08:02 PM (#3745399)
Murphy huh? That should be entertaining, I'll be real interested to see if he can pull it off. I wonder how many players who are not natural second basemen are better defenders at second than LF.

I have the feeling that if he successfully plays second base regularly, it'll turn out that he's a "natural second baseman".
   33. John DiFool2 Posted: February 07, 2011 at 08:03 PM (#3745400)
Is there anyone NOT taking the under on the Jason Bay projection? I think even his mom would take the under on that projection.


What's wrong with it? After all, he's only 2 years removed from a 36 HR, 921 OPS season. Or is this a not-so-subtle hint that you thought he looked completely cooked last year? [/No snark]
   34. Cowboy Popup Posted: February 07, 2011 at 08:12 PM (#3745410)
Castillo will be 35, is coming off a .235/.337/.267 year and has hit .270/.366/.315 (OPS+ of 85) over the past 3. I'd be surprised at a projection system that didn't project a better 2011 OPS+ for Adams

It's not that I doubt the projection, I just think it's remarkable that a annual NRI guy (specifically Russ Adams!) is projected to outhit a guy making 6 million this year.

I have the feeling that if he successfully plays second base regularly, it'll turn out that he's a "natural second baseman".

It would be a pretty significant failing of the Mets to have a natural second baseman play almost all of his minor league games at 3rd when they have a franchise 3rd baseman. I think, if it works, that he will still be a natural 3rd baseman, his skills just translate better at one position than the other.
   35. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: February 07, 2011 at 08:14 PM (#3745411)
Murphy huh? That should be entertaining, I'll be real interested to see if he can pull it off. I wonder how many players who are not natural second basemen are better defenders at second than LF.


I'm 99% certain that Murphy will be a better defender at 2B than in LF, however given how shockingly inept he was in left that means very little

He looked good at 1B, and I've heard that he was good at 3B in the minors.

The median starting 2B hit for a 99 OPS+ last year, the mean average 2B hit for a 95...
Assuming Murphy hits that projection, how bad a fielder would he have to be fro him to not be a viable starter?
   36. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: February 07, 2011 at 08:43 PM (#3745423)
It would be a pretty significant failing of the Mets to have a natural second baseman play almost all of his minor league games at 3rd when they have a franchise 3rd baseman.


This is the Mets, and more specifically the Omar Minaya ran Mets we're talking about here.
Recognizing talent in their own farm, and developing talent in their own farm does not appear to be their strong suits...

WRT Mets 2Bs under Omar
1: The team he inherited had just tried playing Reyes at 2B and KazMat at SS... Ok he had that switched around, and KAzMat got hurt a lot so he brought in Cairo... (You have no idea how much I hate Miguel Cairo BTW)... He had Keppinger kicking around BTW, hitting .337/.377/.455 in Norfolk, which was a repeat engagement in AAA after hitting .337/.393/.414 between AA/AAA the year before... and the Met 2B situation being a hemorrhagic sore...Omar eventually traded Kep for Ruben Gotay

2: Gotay: hit .295/.351/.421 for the Mets and was waived...
Gotay is a player I kind of feel bad for, dumped (on) by 2 bad orgs, and then by a good one, he's got that AAAA label affixed on him real good, but hit .272/.429/.450 in 2009 in AAA and .285/.410/.436 last year, and did anyone notice that gaping sucking would at 2B for the Mets last year?

and this predates Omar (barely), but this same team had Marco Scutaro, who after hitting .295/.382/.432 in AAA in 2001, then hit .319/.375/.475 in 2002 in Norfolk for the Mets and then hit .319/.375/.475 in 2003, and then waived him.

Now the Mets of the last 10 years have had more than a few years where 2B was a weeping wound, and yet felt free to toss away multiple USEFUL players and haul in guys like Cairo, SuperJoe, Marlon Anderson, Jose Valentin (which did indeed WORK brilliantly for one year) Easley, Berroa, Valdez, Cora... etc.

Ordinarily I'd say that Turner, Emaus, Adams et al. were in the wrong organization, but methinks the current GM may have more to say in terms of on field personnel than his immediate predecessors did... adn less money to boot.
   37. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: February 07, 2011 at 08:53 PM (#3745431)
quick note on gotay (apart from this discussion): he can't really field second in more than spot duty and he's hopeless v. lefties.
carry on...
   38. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: February 07, 2011 at 09:29 PM (#3745451)
Damion Easley was pretty good for the Mets. He put up a 94 OPS+ and played a lot of positions for them. Omar brought him to be The Stache's platoon partner and he did that job quite well.

You can't really make a big deal about guys like Keppinger. He has ONE season since he left the Mets in which he played both 100 and put up an OPS+ of more than 95. We can rag on Omar for a lot of seasons but we make mistakes on guys all the time as well. Look at how Milledge turned out. No one bats 1.000 in that regard.

Omar made only one huge mistake with the Mets with respect to 2b, and that's continuing with Castillo for far longer than he should have.

I like the over on Niese's projection, surprised that Pelfrey projects to win that many games in his career, the over on Parnell. I am saddened by Wright's projection.
   39. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: February 07, 2011 at 09:57 PM (#3745472)
Yeah, I don't see how Bay can go from one of his better years to "cooked" immediately. I mean, he didn't bulk up the way Andruw Jones did.
   40. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: February 07, 2011 at 09:57 PM (#3745473)
Omar made only one huge mistake with the Mets with respect to 2b, and that's continuing with Castillo for far longer than he should have


the real story of Omar's time with the Mets have been the never-ending sequence of maddening little mistakes...

He and the Mets had a never-ending series of little "bad moves", in and of them self no single move looked all that bad, but after awhile they start to add up, 500 thousand here, 1.5 million here and pretty soon it adds up to a real player or two.
   41. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: February 07, 2011 at 10:09 PM (#3745482)
Yeah, I don't see how Bay can go from one of his better years to "cooked" immediately. I mean, he didn't bulk up the way Andruw Jones did.


ingrained Met fan belief:
Star coming to NYC and cratering = career ending cliff dive
examples:

1: "hey we got Tommy Davis!" I swear to god every Met fan I know who was around when the Mets got Tommy Davis said that they (Mets fans) were ecstatic, but then he stunk and the team still finished in last place
Met Fan recollection accuracy: Fail: Davis had peaked early, but he actually played well his one year with the Mets- his best year in 4 years, and we traded him for Agee.

2: Jim Fregosi, enough said
Met Fan recollection accuracy: Neutral: Fregosi actually cratered the year before, but that cratering was more or less permanent, and therefor fair to cite as evidence that Bay's cratering may be permanent as well.

3: George Foster: Came off a 150 OPS+ to put up a 90, had an extended dead cat bounce that got him backup to 121 three years later (in diminished PT- Davey Johnson really had a knack for maximizing some guys' production through platooning and other thing))
Met Fan recollection accuracy: Pretty Good: Plus Foster's Fall was even steeper than Bay's, he went from a 150 to 90, from a 3 years average of about 145 to 90, Bay's career high is 150- his peak is really mid 130ish whereas at his peak Foster really was a 150 OPS+ guy

4: Roberto Alomar: you all know the story
Met Fan recollection accuracy: Good: and unlike Foster there was no lingering dead cat bounce period, itw as decline all the way.

Edit: I'll add suMo Vaughn because some Mets fans mention him in the same breath as Foster and Alomar, but really that's a fail, he hit for a 113 OPS+ his 1st year with the Mets, considering that he was 34, had missed his age 33 season to injury, had hit 115 at age 32 and 119 at age 31, hitting 113 at age 34 was really a better performance than should have been reasonably expected.
   42. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: February 07, 2011 at 10:12 PM (#3745483)
So it's a fairly well-founded belief, then.
   43. Spahn Insane Posted: February 07, 2011 at 10:50 PM (#3745496)
A guy named Malo has the lowest projected OPS+. Awesome.

Not awesome--malo!
   44. bibigon Posted: February 07, 2011 at 11:24 PM (#3745516)
There's really nothing weird with that Bay projection. That looks pretty spot on to me? The one I'll take the under on is Santana putting up an ERA that good.
   45. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: February 08, 2011 at 12:48 AM (#3745573)
Yeah, the Bay projection looks worse than it is due to the diminished offensive of 2010 (which I'm guessing ZIPS believes will carry over into 2011), as well as Bay hitting in Citi for half his games. Though Bay's troubles were on the road last year, not at home. Still, losing 15-20 points of OPS+ from 2009? Not good.
   46. PreservedFish Posted: February 08, 2011 at 03:03 AM (#3745633)
I think the projections in general look good for the Mets. Davis and Thole look very reasonable for young starters. Dickey holds on to a ton of value.

The pitching staff could easily be one of the worst in the game, but we knew that already.
   47. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 08, 2011 at 03:12 AM (#3745638)
"Why the #### are likes of Cattalano and luis hernandez on this sheet? "

"Ummm, Tatis? "

"52 games for F-Cat? "

Am I too old to cry? I know I shouldn't really care if a few people can't read, but Jesus H. Monkeyballs, how can I make it any more clear?
   48. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: February 08, 2011 at 03:20 AM (#3745644)
"Why the #### are likes of Cattalano and luis hernandez on this sheet? "

"Ummm, Tatis? "

"52 games for F-Cat? "

Am I too old to cry? I know I shouldn't really care if a few people can't read, but Jesus H. Monkeyballs, how can I make it any more clear?


These are the ESPN posters saying these things? If so, I'm not surprised in the slightest.
   49. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 08, 2011 at 03:28 AM (#3745648)
MetsGeek actually (I don't post straight projection lists over on ESPN).
   50. HowardMegdal Posted: February 08, 2011 at 03:47 AM (#3745656)
Dan, I think you need to apologize for saying that Frank Catalanotto will definitely play 52 games in 2011. I await your reply.
   51. PreservedFish Posted: February 08, 2011 at 03:59 AM (#3745660)
I feel like even if I had not read the introduction, I would be able to figure out what was happening by the time I got to the Dusty Ryan and Brahiam Maldonado projections.
   52. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 08, 2011 at 04:09 AM (#3745667)
I feel like even if I had not read the introduction, I would be able to figure out what was happening by the time I got to the Dusty Ryan and Brahiam Maldonado projections.

You'd think that, but there were people that thought I thought that Timo Perez was going to be a starting OF for the Tigers.
   53. PreservedFish Posted: February 08, 2011 at 05:04 AM (#3745686)
Well, I'm smarter than some people.
   54. Lassus Posted: February 08, 2011 at 05:53 AM (#3745696)
I still want Ruben Tejada to make all of you apologize this year. And I will keep track.
   55. Something Other Posted: February 08, 2011 at 08:53 AM (#3745714)
The team's not going to trumpet it to the world, but expectations regarding winning in 2011 are pretty low. The team isn't terrible, but Sandy Alderson and has band of misfits have a lot of legacy problems leftover from the Minaya years and a lot of questions around their frontline talent. Luckily, most of the questions, from the health issues of Beltran and Bay and Santana, to Wright's defense to Reyes' future in New York will be answered this season, giving Alderson a clear path forward.
This is a puzzling paragraph. If anything the FO has been taking pains to diminish expectations, although it has become increasingly clear why. It wouldn't make sense for a huge market true talent 85 win team to not add a couple of decent players and become a 90 win team unless the owners were absolutely tapped out. Beltran's health issues are irrelevant, since he won't be around next season; there's nothing Santana can do this year that will answer his health issues for 2012 or 2013; Wright's defense will probably continue to fluctuate, meaning that unless he's great or awful his performance won't give the Mets reason to either want to move him off of third, or commit to keeping him there. So--several of these questions won't be answered, and between that and the Wilpons' finances, the last thing Alderson is going to have is "a clear path forward".

I'll be surprised if the median number of starts for the Mets' best four starters is over 90. That leaves almost half the season to TJ guys, Misch and Gee, Mejia and his 1:1 K/BB ratio... The one thing Minaya was pretty good at was finding tolerable eighth starters. Maybe there's room for him after all.
   56. HowardMegdal Posted: February 08, 2011 at 01:00 PM (#3745733)
See Dan? That's what you get for not consulting with OBC, who knows how the future actually turns out.
   57. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: February 08, 2011 at 01:26 PM (#3745746)
Funny, there were a couple of weeks there when Why, I mean OBC, was downright optimistic.
   58. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: February 08, 2011 at 02:02 PM (#3745767)
Timo Perez is the starting CF for Detroit? Awesome.
   59. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: February 08, 2011 at 02:06 PM (#3745771)
It's nice when a guy like Timo finally gets his big break. Great reporting, Dan!
   60. Elvis Posted: February 08, 2011 at 03:23 PM (#3745828)
Despite what Russ says in #15, I'll take the over on the Jason Bay projection. I believe he will play in more than 122 games and I expect his OPS to be above .804 for the year. Over at FanGraphs - Bill James, RotoChamps, Marcel and the Fans all project Bay to finish with a higher OPS than the .804 ZiPS has him for.
   61. HowardMegdal Posted: February 08, 2011 at 03:34 PM (#3745838)
Heard this: Timo Perez now represented by Dan Szymborski.
   62. Sam M. Posted: February 08, 2011 at 03:40 PM (#3745843)
I still want Ruben Tejada to make all of you apologize this year. And I will keep track.

You better keep this site handy.
   63. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: February 08, 2011 at 06:45 PM (#3746062)
I think this team will be interesting. Bay, Wright, Beltran, and Davis could hit 100 homers. With Reyes and Pagan setting the table, this team should have a pretty good offense. Thole should be a decent enough starters and second base has some intriguing options. I even like the potential bench.

I think Niese could take a step forward and it's going to see if Dickey is for real. Pelfrey is what he is. I don't hate the rotation as much as most.

I think this could be a fun year in the same way 2005 was fun.
   64. DCW3 Posted: February 08, 2011 at 07:00 PM (#3746098)
Am I too old to cry? I know I shouldn't really care if a few people can't read, but Jesus H. Monkeyballs, how can I make it any more clear?

I feel for you, Dan, but if you want people to understand that you're not projecting playing time, wouldn't the best way to do that be to--not project playing time? Why not just give everybody the same number of PAs?

As for the other issue, maybe you could do a separate sheet with all the free agents, like AROM would do with his CHONE projections, rather than sticking everybody with their previous team. It doesn't matter at all to me, but it sounds like doing things that way might save you a little stress.
   65. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 08, 2011 at 07:11 PM (#3746118)
I'll be surprised if the median number of starts for the Mets' best four starters is over 90.


That would indeed be surprising. I don't think Bay, Wright, Beltran and Davis can have a median number of homers over 100 either.
   66. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: February 08, 2011 at 08:07 PM (#3746175)
It's more likely than the pitchers having 360+ starts.
   67. Something Other Posted: February 09, 2011 at 03:05 AM (#3746478)
See Dan? That's what you get for not consulting with OBC, who knows how the future actually turns out.
Too tough to deal with actual, you know, content, Howard?
   68. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: February 09, 2011 at 03:12 AM (#3746483)
I feel for you, Dan, but if you want people to understand that you're not projecting playing time, wouldn't the best way to do that be to--not project playing time? Why not just give everybody the same number of PAs?
Don't like this idea.

As for the other issue, maybe you could do a separate sheet with all the free agents, like AROM would do with his CHONE projections, rather than sticking everybody with their previous team. It doesn't matter at all to me, but it sounds like doing things that way might save you a little stress.
Considerations here include: we've team-level discussions on this site; ZiPS rolls out slowly v. CHONE coming all out at once; a FA page would need to include an explanation for where the guy is projected for.
Naively, I'd be tempted not to move anyone to their new team for the rollout, but then have everyone moved for the first combined edition. OTOH, that's more work and will prompt its own nagging questions.
   69. Something Other Posted: February 09, 2011 at 03:26 AM (#3746492)
Can anyone link to a comparative study of the major projection systems? Thanks.
   70. Lassus Posted: February 09, 2011 at 04:34 AM (#3746528)
I know some exist, I just haven't kept up much with projection systems, but hopefully someone else knows where to find this.

I'm completely looking forward to this season, for the same reasons Russlan are. Things have been down for awhile, and this Madoff insanity could end up being the super-crazy background for everything to go right for once.

I am totally psyched for this year to start.
   71. VK_Ratliff Posted: February 09, 2011 at 02:58 PM (#3746669)
Will the 2011 ZiPS, including the in-season projections, be carried on FanGraphs this year?
   72. HowardMegdal Posted: February 09, 2011 at 03:05 PM (#3746673)
Too tough to deal with actual, you know, content, Howard?

Just thought it was worth pointing out the humor involved for you to respond to Dan's projections by telling him he's wrong, then posting your projections as if you've been to 2012 and back. But you're right- probably not worth my time to bother.
   73. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: February 09, 2011 at 03:11 PM (#3746674)
We got Fossum back! Yes!
   74. thetailor Posted: February 11, 2011 at 08:54 PM (#3748653)
Very little talk in this thread about the projections themselves.

That offense looks great. I'll definitely take the over on Niese - he's going to kill that projection. With some luck on the pitching side, this team could make things interesting.
   75. thetailor Posted: February 11, 2011 at 08:59 PM (#3748657)
Also, how does Wright, with the lifetime .305 average, project only a 23% chance of a .300 average this year? Is he taking a big hit for the recent strikeout rate? How does ZiPS deal with things like career-long outliers on BABIP?
   76. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: February 12, 2011 at 08:17 PM (#3749148)
I think I know the answer to this, but I'll ask it anyway. Lucas Duda hit .304/.398/.569 in the high minors last year including .314/.389/.610 at AAA, but he's projected to pretty much suck in the majors next year.

I assume this is because most guys who put up numbers like Duda's at Duda's age still never amount to anything. But I would think there is still a significant possibility that Duda turns out to be able to hit in the majors. Is it fair to guess that there is a bit of a flatter, wider bell curve on outcomes for Duda than there would be for, say, Fernando Tatis whose projection is superficially similar? ODDIBE doesn't seem to support this, but I can't really get past the "what else could Duda have done last year to project well for 2011."
   77. Seaver69 Posted: February 13, 2011 at 01:40 AM (#3749257)
I doubt Santana makes the 27 starts predicted for him this year, and Chris Young will make more than ten starts. I lost a lot of respect for Wright recently when he said that the ownership's financial mess will probably trickle down into the clubhouse. That's not what a player in his leadership position should be saying. That is the sign of a quitter. What he should have said was, as professionals, we have no choice but to focus our energies on just playing baseball. We can't be looking over our shoulders at what is going on up in the front office. Bill Miller (The On Deck Circle)
   78. starving to death with a full STEAGLES Posted: February 13, 2011 at 02:12 AM (#3749261)
this is the last year we're getting these, isn't it?
   79. Lassus Posted: February 13, 2011 at 02:28 AM (#3749266)
#77, I didn't hear the EXACT QUOTE, but honesty makes one a better leader than gladhanding, empty, clubhouse platitudes, at least IMO.
   80. Sam M. Posted: February 13, 2011 at 02:49 AM (#3749274)
I lost a lot of respect for Wright recently when he said that the ownership's financial mess will probably trickle down into the clubhouse. That's not what a player in his leadership position should be saying. That is the sign of a quitter. What he should have said was, as professionals, we have no choice but to focus our energies on just playing baseball. We can't be looking over our shoulders at what is going on up in the front office.

I am SO on Lassus' side on this. And I'll go a step further: I think it is one of the best displays of strong leadership David Wright has ever served up. He did it with a healthy dose of sympathy for the Wilpons' situation to help it go down -- which was entirely appropriate and (I'm guessing) sincere. But he said what I think needed to be said by someone with the status to say it, which was to fairly but firmly call bullshit on the party line that this whole episode won't affect the Mets. It already has affected them financially, and the nonsense they are spouting has convinced absolutely nobody. And it will affect them throughout the 2011 season, as events unfold off the field and the players are inevitably asked about how it is impacting them. Jose Reyes is going to be asked about free agency . . . and whether the precarious financial situation affects it. Carlos Beltran is going to be asked about whether the potential sale of the team makes him think he's more likely to be traded and how he feels about it. K-Rod is going to be asked whether he thinks the Mets are manipulating his usage to avoid his option vesting because . . . yes, because of the Mets' finances. Rare is going to be the Met who won't get dragged into this. It is New York, it is a tabloid/talk radio culture, and they will feel the impact. David Wright saying so is just facing reality, and a team leader in this day and age earns his teammates' respect for telling the truth.

Well done, DW.
   81. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 13, 2011 at 04:40 AM (#3749291)
ODDIBE doesn't seem to support this, but I can't really get past the "what else could Duda have done last year to project well for 2011."

Duda hit well in Binghamton, but he was also a 24-year-old AA repeater. And he was lousy in the majors, which was nearly 20% of his season. Prior to 2010, he was low-power corner guy, not young for his levels, that got the majority of his value from walks. Players like have a very poor track record.

Combine translations and MLB lines and you get:

2007: 277/346/381 (half-year)
2008: 222/301/328
2009: 229/314/338
2010: 252/332/461

Essentially, to get Duda to have a good projection, you have to place far, far more emphasis on the most recent year than history justifies. Players with big jumps forward do not show any kind of immunity to this.
   82. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 13, 2011 at 04:41 AM (#3749292)
this is the last year we're getting these, isn't it?

I really hope you're not my doctor because this is a pretty shitty way of informing me.
   83. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 13, 2011 at 04:46 AM (#3749293)
I'm constantly surprised by what the nanny stops and what the nanny lets through.
   84. Ron J Posted: February 13, 2011 at 05:55 AM (#3749309)
Assuming Murphy hits that projection, how bad a fielder would he have to be fro him to not be a viable starter?


Greg Jefferies. Maybe a tad worse.

Name not picked at random of course. Perhaps the oddest aspect of the Mets' handling of Jefferies is that after tearing up AA with the bat and demonstrating to everybody that he actually wasn't a SS, the Mets gave him a full year at 3B in AAA.

And then had him learn second in the majors. Made no sense to me at the time. Still doesn't.

Yeah, a heck of a lot of major league second basemen learned the position in the majors. But the guys who made the transition look easy were generally much better defensive SS -- usually moved because their arm was marginal or there was a better defensive player in position.

I don't claim he would have succeeded at second with a year in the minors under his belt. But I've never seen a major league second baseman so clearly lacking in the fundamentals and maybe he could have learned enough to be ... well adequate seems a big reach. How about nearly acceptable.
   85. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: February 13, 2011 at 07:07 PM (#3749495)
Essentially, to get Duda to have a good projection, you have to place far, far more emphasis on the most recent year than history justifies. Players with big jumps forward do not show any kind of immunity to this.


Thanks for the response, Dan. Any sense of whether different types of improvement seem to be more or less sustainable?

For example, Duda has always walked a lot, but in 2010 he struck out less and hit for considerably more power. Any of those more or less likely to bob up and down?
   86. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 14, 2011 at 02:37 PM (#3749804)
Striking out is pretty stable. ZiPS does put a lot of weight on 2010, just not quite as much as you eyeballed - enough to believe a 90-100 point OPS improvement from 08/09,
   87. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: February 14, 2011 at 03:28 PM (#3749852)
but I can't really get past the "what else could Duda have done last year to project well for 2011."
Invent a time machine and go back and hit better in 2008/09

Thanks for the response, Dan. Any sense of whether different types of improvement seem to be more or less sustainable?

For example, Duda has always walked a lot, but in 2010 he struck out less and hit for considerably more power. Any of those more or less likely to bob up and down?


A few years ago I bought one of Shandler's Baseball Forecasters, in it he asserted that Jason Phillips breakout 2003 campaign was likely "sustainable" because his k/bb rate and k/pa rates were consistent with et overall level of production Phillips had shown in 2003...

His K rate was sustainable, his BB rate dropped a bit, but not too much... he lost a little ISO... and oh, his BABIP dropped 80 points and only rebounded by 20 or so by the time MLB showed him the door...

On a related note, Bill Jame once noted that more than a few MLbers had taken "great leaps forward" between the ages 21-24- and essentially stayed there... what James forgot to mention in that particular article was that hindsight is 20/40 at best- as Dan notes there are no small number of young guys who APPEAR to take great leaps forward, and then fall back to where they started.

Duda's age 24 performance could be his peak, an atypical spike year like Erstad had at age 26...
2008: 222/301/328
2009: 229/314/338

those are his mles for ages 22/23
Inge hit .202/.266/.333 at age 25 and .203/.265/.339 at age 26, the next three years he hit .265/.327/.443 (OPS+ 102)
Twinge's mles are as ugly as his age 25/26 MLB lines- so essentially there was nothing to suggest he would even be an MLB caliber hitter- until suddenly he was (even if only briefly)
   88. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: March 29, 2011 at 12:25 AM (#3780176)
Nick Evans, we hardly knew ye. But I'm pretty sure you're probably stinky.
   89. Lassus Posted: March 29, 2011 at 12:30 AM (#3780179)
Nick Evans, we hardly knew ye. But I'm pretty sure you're probably stinky.

I'm confused, what brought this on?
   90. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: March 29, 2011 at 12:42 AM (#3780183)
Waivers for Evans, Misch, and L. Hernandez.
   91. starving to death with a full STEAGLES Posted: March 29, 2011 at 12:50 AM (#3780188)
Waivers for Evans
if that's the case, i hope the phillies put a claim on him. a RH hitting 4 corners player would be perfect for the bench now that greg dobbs has succumbed to suck and gotten released.
   92. Lassus Posted: March 29, 2011 at 12:57 AM (#3780191)
Wow, really? I even LOOKED, but didn't catch that. I'm a little surprised. I think Evens gets picked up somewhere and does decently.
   93. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: March 29, 2011 at 01:03 AM (#3780193)
Evans can actually play the outfield and makes sense as a guy that can give Davis the occasional day off against a lefty. In limited AB at the major league level, he's hit lefties for an .891 OPS. I guess it was between Murphy and Evans and Murphy is going to be the lefthanded PH. Oh well, Evans didn't really get a shot with the Mets but I think he proves to be useful somewhere else. Not a horrible move but one I don't like particularly.
   94. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: March 29, 2011 at 01:58 AM (#3780218)
Wow, really? I even LOOKED, but didn't catch that.


I usually get my Mets breaking news from Sportspyder.com

What do you all use?
   95. The District Attorney Posted: March 29, 2011 at 02:57 PM (#3780466)
Yeah, as STEAGLES alludes to, I think Evans would be good in a Fernnado Tatis role. (That's 2008-09 Tatis, not the Cardinals' super-Tatis, obviously.)

So Evans should be useful to someone, but I don't see how it would be to the Mets. There would be no point keeping him around solely to platoon at 1B. Especially since it'd be far more sensible to let Ike get experience hitting MLB lefties anyway.
   96. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: March 29, 2011 at 03:02 PM (#3780474)
Whoa, this will throw your projections all out of whack, Dan, with the Mets losing Evans's 525 ABs.
   97. Mark S. is bored Posted: March 29, 2011 at 03:32 PM (#3780496)
It's kind of hard to call Evans a 4 corners player considering he's played only about 40 games at 3B in his professional career and 14 games at RF. He's primarily a LF/1B.
   98. Elvis Posted: March 29, 2011 at 03:38 PM (#3780503)
Hey Arbitol, if you're still around send me an email through BTF if you would - thanks!
   99. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: March 29, 2011 at 11:49 PM (#3780899)
Sent. Thanks for the note, Elvis.
   100. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 27, 2011 at 03:37 PM (#3886485)
Just wanted to mention that Murphy is at .313/.354/.448 (OPS+ 123)
This year he's looking a lot like the hitter that Sam M once envisioned, and not a peep out of Sam...
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