2011 ZiPS Projections - New York Mets
The team’s not going to trumpet it to the world, but expectations regarding winning in 2011 are pretty low. The team isn’t terrible, but Sandy Alderson and has band of misfits have a lot of legacy problems leftover from the Minaya years and a lot of questions around their frontline talent. Luckily, most of the questions, from the health issues of Beltran and Bay and Santana, to Wright’s defense to Reyes’ future in New York will be answered this season, giving Alderson a clear path forward.
Thanks to the Wilpon problems, the answer in the near future is unlikely to be an aggressive spending push to challenge the Phillies. Between the Wilpons, the McCourts, Moores, Jeff Loria, Hicks, and so on, it’s hard to see exactly what MLB is gaining from needing owner approval of new owners. As far as I can tell, Bud Selig and the welfare queens that make up MLB’s ownership group are worse at screening owners than Paul von Hindenburg was at screening chancellors.
Overall, the Mets have enough potential front-line talent to win 85 games or so, enough to make it interesting for a few months with some luck, but I think the upside this season is pretty limited. Alderson’s goal for 2011 is essentially to keep the team just non-horrible enough to buy him some time to fix the problems.
A couple of side notes. It’s perfectly acceptable to criticize individual projections, but for the love of God, don’t announce in your blog that I think Mets catchers will combine for 2000 at-bats or that Wilmer Flores will be the starting shortstop or that Frankie Cats is still in the organization. I don’t, and I clearly laid out in the disclaimer why certain players appear here and why you can’t simply add up columns to get team totals (or at least I think I did).
Also, ZiPS projections will be appearing in the Amazin’ Avenue annual. I don’t know exactly what will appear from ZiPS, but Eric Simon has access to quite a lot of ODDIBE probability stuff.
I might possibly have missed a minor league signing elsewhere or two - these projections have been in the age for a couple of weeks. I was late Friday with the formatting so I waited until today (competing with the Super Bowl coverage and the normal weekend traffic dropoff and I’d probably struggle to get a couple thousand views of this).
Next up: Phillies
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Batting Projections
Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+
David Wright R 3B 28 .282 .361 .481 155 586 94 165 36 3 25 99 76 142 23 9 127
Carlos Beltran B CF 34 .270 .354 .447 99 367 52 99 20 3 13 54 49 64 10 2 116
Jose Reyes B SS 28 .284 .337 .439 122 517 80 147 27 10 11 54 41 60 39 11 109
Jason Bay R LF 32 .252 .349 .455 122 444 71 112 22 4 20 76 63 123 9 1 117
Ike Davis L 1B 24 .257 .342 .447 152 553 76 142 35 2 22 79 73 154 2 2 113
Angel Pagan B CF 29 .278 .326 .424 114 417 60 116 23 7 8 52 31 68 21 6 102
Dan Murphy L 1B 26 .278 .329 .435 97 331 42 92 22 3 8 55 26 46 5 2 106
Scott Hairston R LF 31 .254 .316 .423 110 338 44 86 19 1 12 44 28 73 6 1 97
Josh Thole L C 24 .273 .342 .380 140 461 48 126 28 3 5 49 47 59 4 2 96
Nick Evans R 1B 25 .248 .305 .425 148 525 70 130 34 4 17 62 43 122 1 1 96
Lucas Duda L LF 25 .243 .323 .408 142 522 62 127 34 2 16 70 56 138 1 3 97
Fernando Tatis R 1B 36 .252 .316 .403 85 238 27 60 13 1 7 30 19 47 2 1 94
Val Pascucci R RF 32 .218 .319 .401 103 344 43 75 16 1 15 46 49 113 2 1 95
Kirk Nieuwenhuis L CF 23 .245 .302 .411 147 608 99 149 40 5 17 78 47 170 13 7 92
Frank Catalanotto L LF 37 .259 .319 .370 52 108 11 28 7 1 1 8 8 15 1 0 87
Justin Turner R 2B 26 .267 .320 .377 129 483 68 129 27 1 8 49 34 71 6 4 89
Fernando Martinez L RF 22 .245 .300 .411 106 380 52 93 22 1 13 45 21 88 4 2 91
Mike Hessman R 3B 33 .216 .298 .414 110 389 48 84 19 2 18 58 40 130 1 2 91
Ronny Paulino R C 30 .257 .310 .370 90 300 30 77 16 0 6 37 24 52 1 1 84
Russ Adams L 2B 30 .243 .299 .384 107 378 50 92 19 2 10 43 29 72 4 2 84
Brad Emaus R 3B 25 .240 .315 .357 147 558 67 134 31 2 10 63 61 90 9 3 81
Zach Lutz R 3B 25 .227 .311 .381 97 365 41 83 18 1 12 50 40 109 1 2 87
Jason Pridie L CF 27 .254 .286 .378 103 418 49 106 16 6 8 41 18 91 17 6 79
Luis Castillo B 2B 35 .259 .345 .308 103 347 49 90 8 3 1 27 46 37 12 4 80
Reese Havens L 2B 24 .223 .306 .373 82 319 36 71 14 2 10 34 33 86 2 3 84
Andy Green R 2B 33 .231 .305 .359 84 273 39 63 13 2 6 28 27 57 3 2 80
Sean Ratliff L CF 24 .236 .279 .393 151 590 76 139 32 5 17 75 34 195 8 6 80
Ruben Tejada R SS 21 .250 .315 .330 156 515 63 129 25 2 4 42 38 86 10 5 76
Eric Campbell R 3B 24 .241 .311 .355 108 394 52 95 22 1 7 44 35 78 3 6 81
Chin-lung Hu R SS 27 .254 .285 .340 98 314 38 80 12 3 3 31 14 42 7 1 69
Dusty Ryan R C 26 .209 .299 .354 92 297 31 62 14 1 9 35 37 114 2 1 77
Jesus Feliciano L RF 32 .272 .311 .327 132 452 53 123 18 2 1 31 22 49 7 7 74
Mike Cervenak R 3B 34 .251 .279 .360 115 450 49 113 23 1 8 46 13 62 2 2 72
Wilmer Flores R SS 19 .248 .284 .361 156 642 63 159 32 4 11 72 28 108 3 5 74
J.R. House R C 31 .241 .287 .344 103 381 38 92 18 0 7 41 23 53 0 1 71
Brahiam Maldonado R LF 25 .216 .270 .361 118 421 41 91 19 3 12 46 26 167 8 4 70
Luis Hernandez B SS 27 .248 .282 .328 117 408 46 101 16 4 3 39 19 64 5 4 65
Jordany Valdespin L 2B 23 .246 .276 .358 98 402 50 99 19 4 6 38 13 86 13 13 71
Mike Nickeas R C 28 .222 .302 .295 71 234 18 52 11 0 2 28 25 53 1 1 63
Jonathan Malo R SS 27 .208 .274 .295 103 312 37 65 12 3 3 26 26 77 6 4 55
Defensive Projections
Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF
David Wright FR/95
Carlos Beltran AV/69
Jose Reyes AV/98
Jason Bay FR/54
Ike Davis VG/111
Angel Pagan VG/108 VG/132 VG/91
Dan Murphy VG/132 FR/117 FR/116 AV/126
Scott Hairston AV/70 FR/157 FR/114
Josh Thole AV FR/109
Nick Evans AV/56 FR/112 AV/128 AV/128
Lucas Duda AV/103 FR/122 FR/122
Fernando Tatis AV/118 PO/111 PO/100 AV/114 FR/93
Val Pascucci AV/150 PO/122
Kirk Nieuwenhuis AV/112 AV/120 AV/132
Frank Catalanotto FR/98 PO/119 PO/119
Justin Turner FR/123 AV/111 PO/116
Fernando Martinez VG/103 FR/69 VG/103
Mike Hessman AV/120 AV/60 PO/112 FR/107
Ronny Paulino AV
Russ Adams AV/130 FR/106 PO/109 AV/136 FR/118
Brad Emaus AV/115 AV/140
Zach Lutz FR/109 FR/114
Jason Pridie VG/102 VG/110 VG/108
Luis Castillo FR/103
Reese Havens AV/108 FR/121
Andy Green AV/99 FR/118 PO/113 FR/102
Sean Ratliff VG/150 FR/115 AV/105
Ruben Tejada VG/126 VG/117
Eric Campbell AV/98 FR/122 FR/105
Chin-lung Hu VG/110 AV/96
Dusty Ryan FR FR/142
Jesus Feliciano VG/67 FR/66 AV/75
Mike Cervenak AV/105 FR/118 AV/111 FR/109
Wilmer Flores FR/116
J.R. House FR
Brahiam Maldonado AV/133 PO/107 FR/102
Luis Hernandez AV/102 AV/88
Jordany Valdespin AV/132 FR/136
Mike Nickeas AV AV/112
Jonathan Malo AV/126 AV/100 FR/108 AV/104 FR/130 AV/105
Pitching Projections - Starters
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Johan Santana L 32 3.39 13 7 27 27 180.3 168 68 17 49 145 120
R.A. Dickey R 36 3.86 11 8 28 25 170.0 173 73 17 46 100 105
Mike Pelfrey R 27 4.12 12 11 32 31 192.3 203 88 15 65 115 99
Chris Capuano L 32 4.15 6 7 28 17 110.7 112 51 12 35 89 98
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96
Jonathon Niese L 25 4.27 9 9 29 29 164.3 171 78 17 59 131 95
Jenrry Mejia R 21 4.30 7 7 22 22 98.3 98 47 8 50 73 95
John Maine R 30 4.34 5 5 15 15 76.7 71 37 9 41 67 94
Kelvim Escobar R 35 4.38 1 1 2 2 12.3 13 6 1 5 8 93
Chris Young R 32 4.53 3 3 10 10 51.7 48 26 7 25 42 90
Pat Misch L 29 4.75 7 8 34 20 134.7 154 71 16 35 72 86
Dillon Gee R 25 4.88 7 9 23 23 127.3 139 69 19 39 96 83
Armando Rodriguez R 23 4.96 7 10 28 28 132.3 140 73 13 73 97 82
Oliver Perez L 29 5.40 4 6 22 18 96.7 95 58 15 67 87 75
Tobi Stoner R 26 5.68 6 11 24 22 123.7 146 78 19 52 71 72
Adam Pettyjohn L 34 5.77 4 7 31 11 82.7 101 53 11 38 42 70
Pitching Statistics - Relievers
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Francisco RodrigueR 29 3.13 4 2 61 0 60.3 48 21 5 29 71 130
Taylor Buchholz R 29 3.65 3 2 44 0 49.3 47 20 4 17 39 111
Bobby Parnell R 26 3.76 2 2 61 0 69.3 66 29 6 26 62 108
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
D. J. Carrasco R 34 3.81 3 2 51 1 75.7 72 32 6 29 59 107
Elmer Dessens R 40 4.15 3 2 37 0 39.0 40 18 4 13 22 98
Manuel Alvarez R 25 4.48 4 5 49 0 62.3 63 31 8 25 49 91
Manny Acosta R 30 4.50 3 4 54 1 60.0 57 30 8 31 53 90
Ryota Igarashi R 32 4.71 3 3 47 0 49.7 50 26 6 25 43 86
Pedro Beato R 24 4.76 2 2 45 0 56.7 59 30 6 26 36 85
Boof Bonser R 29 4.79 1 2 19 3 41.3 45 22 5 14 33 85
Mike O’Connor L 30 4.87 4 5 35 8 77.7 87 42 10 26 53 84
Roy Merritt L 25 5.21 3 5 56 0 67.3 72 39 9 37 47 78
John Lujan R 27 5.52 2 4 47 0 60.3 68 37 7 37 42 74
Josh Stinson R 23 5.53 4 8 38 11 97.7 109 60 12 60 60 74
Extrapolated Career Statistics
Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+
David Wright .284 .358 .472 2584 9864 1496 2805 606 43 385 1582 1148 1996 361 121
Jose Reyes .277 .326 .427 2191 9346 1404 2591 453 175 200 932 671 985 607 100
Carlos Beltran .276 .352 .474 2132 8172 1343 2255 450 79 336 1316 966 1412 329 114
Luis Castillo .287 .365 .347 1899 7117 1084 2045 207 64 29 490 875 913 390 91
Jason Bay .264 .358 .475 1676 6096 978 1612 330 49 285 1035 840 1562 113 119
Angel Pagan .273 .320 .415 1201 4217 583 1153 229 63 80 501 305 640 172 97
Ronny Paulino .261 .314 .370 942 3145 305 822 157 1 61 373 245 524 10 82
Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+
Johan Santana 214 126 1 3.36 527 450 3152 2824 1176 338 886 2828 127
Mike Pelfrey 148 134 1 4.18 391 383 2354 2493 1093 180 815 1395 98
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3
David Wright 3B 55% 27% 11% 5% 1% Gil McDougald Scott Rolen Pinky Higgins
Carlos Beltran CF 55% 23% 16% 5% 1% Jerry Mumphrey Roy WhiteClaudell Washington
Jose Reyes SS 65% 20% 11% 3% 1% Rafael Furcal Jimmy Rollins Tony Fernandez
Jason Bay LF 27% 31% 18% 15% 9% Reggie Sanders Eric Davis Woodie Held
Ike Davis 1B 9% 23% 22% 29% 18% Mario Valdez David Ortiz Adam LaRoche
Angel Pagan CF 28% 25% 26% 15% 6% Willie McGee Mookie Wilson Rajai Davis
Dan Murphy 1B 3% 17% 22% 35% 23% Daryl Sconiers Pete LaCock Wally Joyner
Scott Hairston LF 2% 10% 15% 26% 47% John Valle Brandon Berger Matt Mieske
Josh Thole C 9% 34% 29% 21% 7% James Durrman Mike Scioscia Kurt Suzuki
Nick Evans 1B 1% 5% 11% 34% 49% Kevin Sliwinski Rich Aude Larry See
Lucas Duda LF 2% 8% 13% 24% 53% Larry Broadway Adam LaRoche Marvin Lowrance
Fernando Tatis 1B 2% 5% 10% 31% 52% Russ Morman Rich Aurilia Hector Lopez
Val Pascucci RF 2% 7% 11% 22% 58% Ty Van Burkleo Alan Zinter Jason Dubois
Kirk Nieuwenhuis CF 8% 12% 22% 27% 30% Myron White Lloyd Moseby Ty Gainey
Frank Catalanotto LF 1% 3% 4% 11% 80% Russ Snyder Brian Jordan Mike Kingery
Justin Turner 2B 7% 10% 17% 28% 39% Mark Lewis Ramon Martinez Billy Ripken
Fernando Martinez RF 2% 8% 11% 19% 60% Jose Malave Juan Encarnacion Chris James
Mike Hessman 3B 2% 8% 15% 26% 49% Brandon Inge Mike Coolbaugh Cody Ransom
Ronny Paulino C 3% 14% 21% 32% 29% Yorvit Torrealba Jason Hill Ed Ott
Russ Adams 2B 4% 7% 13% 27% 50% Mike Bell Shanie Dugas Luis Rivera
Brad Emaus 3B 1% 5% 10% 21% 64% Garrett Atkins Paul Janish Mark Kiger
Zach Lutz 3B 1% 5% 11% 23% 60% Paul Russo Mike Costanzo Jared Sandberg
Jason Pridie CF 2% 4% 11% 25% 57% Lou Thornton Herm Winningham McKay Christensen
Luis Castillo 2B 3% 5% 10% 23% 58% Mark McLemore Jamey Carroll Craig Counsell
Reese Havens 2B 5% 5% 8% 17% 65% Todd Carey Ken Bonifay Chris Lombardozzi
Andy Green 2B 4% 4% 7% 16% 70% Dave Matranga Chris Petersen Jed Hansen
Sean Ratliff CF 1% 4% 11% 23% 61% Myron White Lloyd Moseby Ralph Bryant
Ruben Tejada SS 2% 5% 17% 30% 46% Ivan Mesa Pedro Chavez David Lamb
Eric Campbell 3B 0% 2% 4% 11% 83% Jared Goedert Jose Valdez John Hattig
Chin-lung Hu SS 1% 4% 12% 27% 56% Hector Rincones Jackie Gutierrez Craig Shipley
Dusty Ryan C 2% 5% 10% 27% 57% Henry Mercedes David Ross Dan Whitmer
Jesus Feliciano RF 0% 0% 1% 2% 97% Aaron Miles Jim Eppard Doc Cramer
Mike Cervenak 3B 1% 1% 3% 8% 88% Frank Bolling Mark Christman Ron Coomer
Wilmer Flores SS 4% 4% 9% 19% 65% Fred Manrique Gregorio Petit Hector Rincones
J.R. House C 0% 3% 7% 20% 70% Raul Chavez Rick Cerone Scott Servais
Brahiam Maldonado LF 0% 0% 1% 2% 96% Rondal Rollin Michael Rodriguez Willie Magallanes
Luis Hernandez SS 0% 1% 5% 14% 79% Craig Shipley Casey Smith Carlo Colombino
Jordany Valdespin 2B 0% 0% 0% 1% 98% Greg Tabor Tim Florez Juan Melo
Mike Nickeas C 0% 1% 3% 10% 86% Chris Tremie Joe Hietpas Matt Garrick
Jonathan Malo SS 0% 0% 1% 3% 95% Erick Monzon Brian Keck Giomar Guevara
Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3
Francisco RodrigueRP 55% 38% 7% Dick Radatz Brad Lidge Jim Kern
Johan Santana SP 73% 22% 5% Jimmy Key Bruce Hurst Frank Viola
Taylor Buchholz RP 29% 48% 23% Rich Monteleone Gene Nelson Geoff Geary
Bobby Parnell RP 29% 54% 17% Steve Olin Brad Clontz Jose Alvarez
D. J. Carrasco RP 31% 54% 15% Rollie Fingers Andy McGaffigan Anthony Telford
R.A. Dickey SP 37% 45% 18% Gil Heredia Kevin Tapani Ken Forsch
Mike Pelfrey SP 28% 52% 20% Dennis Lamp Chien-Ming Wang Bob Moose
Chris Capuano SP 27% 49% 23% David Wells Jon Matlack Chris Hammond
Elmer Dessens RP 27% 30% 42% Jim Turner Dolf Luque Mike Ryba
Jonathon Niese SP 18% 60% 22% Mark Guthrie Steve Trout Sterling Hitchcock
Jenrry Mejia SP 21% 50% 28% Shawn Hillegas Mike Payne Charlie Lea
John Maine SP 19% 46% 36% Kip Wells Chan Ho Park Bobby Witt
Kelvim Escobar SP 39% 16% 45% Tim Belcher Mike Torrez Steve Sparks
Manuel Alvarez RP 6% 36% 57% Jeremy Hernandez Dario Veras Greg Hansell
Manny Acosta RP 5% 35% 59% Chad Harville Richie Lewis Johnny Ruffin
Chris Young SP 19% 35% 46% Mark Gardner Robert Person Tim Wakefield
Ryota Igarashi RP 5% 25% 70% Mark Corey Juan Eichelberger Reggie Harris
Pat Misch SP 8% 40% 53% Eric Hillman Chuck Stobbs Eric Knott
Pedro Beato RP 4% 26% 70% Jimmy Myers Steve Gomez Jeremy Wedel
Boof Bonser RP 5% 5% 90% Randy O’Neal John Wasdin Donn Pall
Mike O’Connor RP 4% 26% 70% Tony Fossas Chris Key Tommy Phelps
Dillon Gee SP 3% 35% 61% Dave Telgheder Keith Foulke Oil Can Boyd
Armando Rodriguez SP 2% 33% 65% Denny Bautista Matt Albers Kevin Ritz
Roy Merritt RP 1% 14% 86% Brad Weis Paul Mancuso Mike Dalton
Oliver Perez SP 1% 15% 83% David West Ken Kravec Herb Score
John Lujan RP 0% 8% 92% Don Timberlake Jean Machi Tim Corcoran
Josh Stinson RP 0% 4% 96% Willis Roberts Ernie Delgado Jerry Dipoto
Tobi Stoner SP 0% 6% 94% Kyle Middleton Rich Yett Nick Roberts
Adam Pettyjohn SP 0% 5% 95% Chris Michalak Curt Young Jason Jacome
Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB
David Wright 23% 31% 32% 16% 2% 26% 24% 22%
Carlos Beltran 15% 23% 14% 0% 0% 1% 11% 1%
Jose Reyes 26% 9% 10% 1% 53% 2% 6% 71%
Jason Bay 4% 19% 16% 0% 2% 8% 11% 0%
Ike Davis 4% 13% 11% 11% 1% 12% 7% 0%
Angel Pagan 20% 5% 4% 0% 20% 0% 1% 12%
Dan Murphy 19% 6% 6% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0%
Scott Hairston 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Josh Thole 13% 11% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Nick Evans 1% 0% 2% 7% 3% 2% 0% 0%
Lucas Duda 1% 3% 2% 7% 0% 1% 1% 0%
Fernando Tatis 6% 4% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Val Pascucci 0% 3% 2% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0%
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 1% 0% 3% 29% 11% 5% 1% 2%
Frank Catalanotto 15% 9% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Justin Turner 9% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Fernando Martinez 2% 1% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mike Hessman 0% 0% 3% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0%
Ronny Paulino 6% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Russ Adams 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Brad Emaus 0% 1% 0% 2% 1% 1% 0% 1%
Zach Lutz 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jason Pridie 3% 0% 1% 0% 16% 0% 0% 4%
Luis Castillo 8% 15% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 3%
Reese Havens 1% 2% 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0%
Andy Green 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Sean Ratliff 0% 0% 1% 5% 11% 4% 0% 0%
Ruben Tejada 1% 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 2%
Eric Campbell 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chin-lung Hu 4% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Dusty Ryan 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jesus Feliciano 13% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Mike Cervenak 3% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
Wilmer Flores 2% 0% 3% 14% 9% 4% 1% 0%
J.R. House 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Brahiam Maldonado 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Luis Hernandez 2% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Jordany Valdespin 2% 0% 1% 0% 4% 0% 0% 2%
Mike Nickeas 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jonathan Malo 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1
Francisco Rodrigue 55% 91% 96% 0% 87%
Johan Santana 36% 90% 17% 16% 76%
Taylor Buchholz 22% 70% 35% 9% 48%
Bobby Parnell 23% 73% 44% 2% 88%
D. J. Carrasco 25% 81% 10% 2% 84%
R.A. Dickey 13% 59% 2% 28% 70%
Mike Pelfrey 5% 53% 2% 5% 89%
Chris Capuano 7% 46% 26% 8% 49%
Elmer Dessens 21% 50% 2% 19% 67%
Jonathon Niese 3% 41% 15% 1% 68%
Jenrry Mejia 5% 41% 9% 0% 89%
John Maine 4% 34% 44% 0% 62%
Kelvim Escobar 23% 39% 7% 23% 66%
Manuel Alvarez 4% 36% 12% 2% 51%
Manny Acosta 5% 33% 40% 0% 49%
Chris Young 7% 32% 25% 0% 40%
Ryota Igarashi 3% 23% 40% 0% 63%
Pat Misch 1% 20% 0% 32% 54%
Pedro Beato 2% 23% 1% 0% 63%
Boof Bonser 5% 32% 26% 12% 67%
Mike O'Connor 3% 21% 4% 7% 54%
Dillon Gee 0% 14% 7% 5% 18%
Armando Rodriguez 0% 9% 4% 0% 75%
Roy Merritt 0% 8% 2% 0% 50%
Oliver Perez 0% 4% 53% 0% 23%
John Lujan 0% 6% 3% 0% 59%
Josh Stinson 0% 2% 0% 0% 48%
Tobi Stoner 0% 1% 0% 0% 19%
Adam Pettyjohn 0% 3% 0% 2% 39%
All figures in % based on projection playing time
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Baltimore Orioles
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
Houston Astros
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers
Minnesota Twins
San Francisco Giants
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
Dan Szymborski
Posted: February 07, 2011 at 06:43 PM |
116 comment(s)
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EDIT: Just kidding. My real comment is a question: what is the number of innings that Johan would have to pitch in order to be considered an HOF lock?
And the rotation is pretty decent -- 4 average to above average starters, with one borderline ace.
Looks like Brad Holt wasn't worth projecting this year.
I know, weird to think about, but Santana's K rate and fastball have really come down in recent years.
But that borderline ace is going to miss a big chunk of the season, and who knows how good he'll be if and when he gets back.
Take Johan out and your proj. ERA+'s are: 105, 99, 98, 96, 95,95, 94.
The big number with Santana, I think, isn't his IP but his wins. Two Cy Youngs plus a couple more big seasons are a very nice HoF peak, but he's only got 133 wins. If he gets over 200, into Schilling/Smoltz territory, that should do it. If he's short of 200, though, it's very hard for me to see Santana getting anywhere with the Hall.
Oops...I'd forgotten about that. Still, that leaves the mets with 4-5 averagish starters. That's not great of course, but if one or two exceed expectations they'll be in good shape. I'm not claiming that the Mets are going to be world beaters, but it seems like there's a lot of gloom and doom surrounding this team, and I don't think that's warranted.
Not really. Look at the names, and the IP projections.
Dickey, Pelfrey, Capuano, OK that's fine.
Then Niese and Meija, two near rookies with little track record. Then Maine, Escobar and Chris Young. Two of them aren't on the team anymore, and all three had very serious injuries.
Kelvim's a workhorse! haha
Moore will probably be in the final.
Turner is a defensively challenged at second right? Gonna be an ugly year at the keystone for the Mets.
How about that R.A. Dickey projection though! I hope he just cruises for the next 10 years.
Well boo. I guess I should have paid attention...I was totally anticipating his projection!
And Capuano ain't exactly someone you can rely on for innings.
But it's not bad starter depth. Two guys will make it to about 180 IP and you'll have a bunch of guys around 100. It won't be pretty at times but there are worse out there.
Looking at Ike Davis's comps, I confused Mario Valdez with Otto Velez (also not a bad comp for Davis, but RHB). Sure looks like Valdez deserved a shot but never got it (or is that all ballpark?) ... then got hurt I assume?
The Reyes' comps are somewhat encouraging. OK, not HoF-quality but suggesting he'll still be an above-average SS 5-6 years from now (I know they're not career comps, I'm extrapolating :-).
Hairston looks like a nice pickup for this team. And if the Murphy 2B experiment actually works, it's not a bad lineup.
Now ... Dan, sorry if I've missed earlier explanations, but why do ZiPS career projections seem to (often) come out so high on PAs. Wright is projected to 11,000 PA. That's about top 30 all-time. Obviously that's possible but for a mean projection? Reyes also hits the 10,000 mark (top 75 all-time). I seem to be seeing this in a lot of the career projections (but maybe not as often as I think) -- e.g. I recall Heyward was around 10,000 PA. Does that make sense to you? Are there reasons (e.g. modern players playing longer)? Or is there something about how the ZiPS career projections work that overestimates playing time?
Feel free to tell me I'm wrong -- after all, there will be 5 players active next year already over 10,000 PA and 20 of the 70 with 10,000 PA retired 2001 or later -- but ZiPS career projections seem overly generous on playing time.
If Thole actually hits .273/.342/.380 I'd be happy....
Niese has over 200 IP in the majors and has a pretty good track record.
No, Castillo is projected to be released in spring training. The starter is probably Murphy, maybe Emaus if he does well in Florida.
Murphy huh? That should be entertaining, I'll be real interested to see if he can pull it off. I wonder how many players who are not natural second basemen are better defenders at second than LF.
All-in-all, I've only projected 10 players to have 10,000 PA that don't already have 9,000. Players are healthier today - by my quick count, 60% of 10,000 PA guys have played in MLB since 1980.
I don't.
Russ Adams hit .285/.343/.411 in AAA in 2009, and .264/.333/.473 in 2010 (IL not PCL)
plus he hit .256/.325/.383 in the MLB the one time he qualified for the batting title
Castillo will be 35, is coming off a .235/.337/.267 year and has hit .270/.366/.315 (OPS+ of 85) over the past 3. I'd be surprised at a projection system that didn't project a better 2011 OPS+ for Adams
also wanted to point put that I am totally unsurprised that Turner's OPS+ projection is 8 points better than Emaus, as I've argued before, Turner has a better statistical track record
I have the feeling that if he successfully plays second base regularly, it'll turn out that he's a "natural second baseman".
What's wrong with it? After all, he's only 2 years removed from a 36 HR, 921 OPS season. Or is this a not-so-subtle hint that you thought he looked completely cooked last year? [/No snark]
It's not that I doubt the projection, I just think it's remarkable that a annual NRI guy (specifically Russ Adams!) is projected to outhit a guy making 6 million this year.
I have the feeling that if he successfully plays second base regularly, it'll turn out that he's a "natural second baseman".
It would be a pretty significant failing of the Mets to have a natural second baseman play almost all of his minor league games at 3rd when they have a franchise 3rd baseman. I think, if it works, that he will still be a natural 3rd baseman, his skills just translate better at one position than the other.
I'm 99% certain that Murphy will be a better defender at 2B than in LF, however given how shockingly inept he was in left that means very little
He looked good at 1B, and I've heard that he was good at 3B in the minors.
The median starting 2B hit for a 99 OPS+ last year, the mean average 2B hit for a 95...
Assuming Murphy hits that projection, how bad a fielder would he have to be fro him to not be a viable starter?
This is the Mets, and more specifically the Omar Minaya ran Mets we're talking about here.
Recognizing talent in their own farm, and developing talent in their own farm does not appear to be their strong suits...
WRT Mets 2Bs under Omar
1: The team he inherited had just tried playing Reyes at 2B and KazMat at SS... Ok he had that switched around, and KAzMat got hurt a lot so he brought in Cairo... (You have no idea how much I hate Miguel Cairo BTW)... He had Keppinger kicking around BTW, hitting .337/.377/.455 in Norfolk, which was a repeat engagement in AAA after hitting .337/.393/.414 between AA/AAA the year before... and the Met 2B situation being a hemorrhagic sore...Omar eventually traded Kep for Ruben Gotay
2: Gotay: hit .295/.351/.421 for the Mets and was waived...
Gotay is a player I kind of feel bad for, dumped (on) by 2 bad orgs, and then by a good one, he's got that AAAA label affixed on him real good, but hit .272/.429/.450 in 2009 in AAA and .285/.410/.436 last year, and did anyone notice that gaping sucking would at 2B for the Mets last year?
and this predates Omar (barely), but this same team had Marco Scutaro, who after hitting .295/.382/.432 in AAA in 2001, then hit .319/.375/.475 in 2002 in Norfolk for the Mets and then hit .319/.375/.475 in 2003, and then waived him.
Now the Mets of the last 10 years have had more than a few years where 2B was a weeping wound, and yet felt free to toss away multiple USEFUL players and haul in guys like Cairo, SuperJoe, Marlon Anderson, Jose Valentin (which did indeed WORK brilliantly for one year) Easley, Berroa, Valdez, Cora... etc.
Ordinarily I'd say that Turner, Emaus, Adams et al. were in the wrong organization, but methinks the current GM may have more to say in terms of on field personnel than his immediate predecessors did... adn less money to boot.
carry on...
You can't really make a big deal about guys like Keppinger. He has ONE season since he left the Mets in which he played both 100 and put up an OPS+ of more than 95. We can rag on Omar for a lot of seasons but we make mistakes on guys all the time as well. Look at how Milledge turned out. No one bats 1.000 in that regard.
Omar made only one huge mistake with the Mets with respect to 2b, and that's continuing with Castillo for far longer than he should have.
I like the over on Niese's projection, surprised that Pelfrey projects to win that many games in his career, the over on Parnell. I am saddened by Wright's projection.
the real story of Omar's time with the Mets have been the never-ending sequence of maddening little mistakes...
He and the Mets had a never-ending series of little "bad moves", in and of them self no single move looked all that bad, but after awhile they start to add up, 500 thousand here, 1.5 million here and pretty soon it adds up to a real player or two.
ingrained Met fan belief:
Star coming to NYC and cratering = career ending cliff dive
examples:
1: "hey we got Tommy Davis!" I swear to god every Met fan I know who was around when the Mets got Tommy Davis said that they (Mets fans) were ecstatic, but then he stunk and the team still finished in last place
Met Fan recollection accuracy: Fail: Davis had peaked early, but he actually played well his one year with the Mets- his best year in 4 years, and we traded him for Agee.
2: Jim Fregosi, enough said
Met Fan recollection accuracy: Neutral: Fregosi actually cratered the year before, but that cratering was more or less permanent, and therefor fair to cite as evidence that Bay's cratering may be permanent as well.
3: George Foster: Came off a 150 OPS+ to put up a 90, had an extended dead cat bounce that got him backup to 121 three years later (in diminished PT- Davey Johnson really had a knack for maximizing some guys' production through platooning and other thing))
Met Fan recollection accuracy: Pretty Good: Plus Foster's Fall was even steeper than Bay's, he went from a 150 to 90, from a 3 years average of about 145 to 90, Bay's career high is 150- his peak is really mid 130ish whereas at his peak Foster really was a 150 OPS+ guy
4: Roberto Alomar: you all know the story
Met Fan recollection accuracy: Good: and unlike Foster there was no lingering dead cat bounce period, itw as decline all the way.
Edit: I'll add suMo Vaughn because some Mets fans mention him in the same breath as Foster and Alomar, but really that's a fail, he hit for a 113 OPS+ his 1st year with the Mets, considering that he was 34, had missed his age 33 season to injury, had hit 115 at age 32 and 119 at age 31, hitting 113 at age 34 was really a better performance than should have been reasonably expected.
Not awesome--malo!
The pitching staff could easily be one of the worst in the game, but we knew that already.
"Ummm, Tatis? "
"52 games for F-Cat? "
Am I too old to cry? I know I shouldn't really care if a few people can't read, but Jesus H. Monkeyballs, how can I make it any more clear?
These are the ESPN posters saying these things? If so, I'm not surprised in the slightest.
You'd think that, but there were people that thought I thought that Timo Perez was going to be a starting OF for the Tigers.
I'll be surprised if the median number of starts for the Mets' best four starters is over 90. That leaves almost half the season to TJ guys, Misch and Gee, Mejia and his 1:1 K/BB ratio... The one thing Minaya was pretty good at was finding tolerable eighth starters. Maybe there's room for him after all.
You better keep this site handy.
I think Niese could take a step forward and it's going to see if Dickey is for real. Pelfrey is what he is. I don't hate the rotation as much as most.
I think this could be a fun year in the same way 2005 was fun.
I feel for you, Dan, but if you want people to understand that you're not projecting playing time, wouldn't the best way to do that be to--not project playing time? Why not just give everybody the same number of PAs?
As for the other issue, maybe you could do a separate sheet with all the free agents, like AROM would do with his CHONE projections, rather than sticking everybody with their previous team. It doesn't matter at all to me, but it sounds like doing things that way might save you a little stress.
That would indeed be surprising. I don't think Bay, Wright, Beltran and Davis can have a median number of homers over 100 either.
Don't like this idea.
As for the other issue, maybe you could do a separate sheet with all the free agents, like AROM would do with his CHONE projections, rather than sticking everybody with their previous team. It doesn't matter at all to me, but it sounds like doing things that way might save you a little stress.
Considerations here include: we've team-level discussions on this site; ZiPS rolls out slowly v. CHONE coming all out at once; a FA page would need to include an explanation for where the guy is projected for.
Naively, I'd be tempted not to move anyone to their new team for the rollout, but then have everyone moved for the first combined edition. OTOH, that's more work and will prompt its own nagging questions.
I'm completely looking forward to this season, for the same reasons Russlan are. Things have been down for awhile, and this Madoff insanity could end up being the super-crazy background for everything to go right for once.
I am totally psyched for this year to start.
Just thought it was worth pointing out the humor involved for you to respond to Dan's projections by telling him he's wrong, then posting your projections as if you've been to 2012 and back. But you're right- probably not worth my time to bother.
That offense looks great. I'll definitely take the over on Niese - he's going to kill that projection. With some luck on the pitching side, this team could make things interesting.
I assume this is because most guys who put up numbers like Duda's at Duda's age still never amount to anything. But I would think there is still a significant possibility that Duda turns out to be able to hit in the majors. Is it fair to guess that there is a bit of a flatter, wider bell curve on outcomes for Duda than there would be for, say, Fernando Tatis whose projection is superficially similar? ODDIBE doesn't seem to support this, but I can't really get past the "what else could Duda have done last year to project well for 2011."
I am SO on Lassus' side on this. And I'll go a step further: I think it is one of the best displays of strong leadership David Wright has ever served up. He did it with a healthy dose of sympathy for the Wilpons' situation to help it go down -- which was entirely appropriate and (I'm guessing) sincere. But he said what I think needed to be said by someone with the status to say it, which was to fairly but firmly call ######## on the party line that this whole episode won't affect the Mets. It already has affected them financially, and the nonsense they are spouting has convinced absolutely nobody. And it will affect them throughout the 2011 season, as events unfold off the field and the players are inevitably asked about how it is impacting them. Jose Reyes is going to be asked about free agency . . . and whether the precarious financial situation affects it. Carlos Beltran is going to be asked about whether the potential sale of the team makes him think he's more likely to be traded and how he feels about it. K-Rod is going to be asked whether he thinks the Mets are manipulating his usage to avoid his option vesting because . . . yes, because of the Mets' finances. Rare is going to be the Met who won't get dragged into this. It is New York, it is a tabloid/talk radio culture, and they will feel the impact. David Wright saying so is just facing reality, and a team leader in this day and age earns his teammates' respect for telling the truth.
Well done, DW.
Duda hit well in Binghamton, but he was also a 24-year-old AA repeater. And he was lousy in the majors, which was nearly 20% of his season. Prior to 2010, he was low-power corner guy, not young for his levels, that got the majority of his value from walks. Players like have a very poor track record.
Combine translations and MLB lines and you get:
2007: 277/346/381 (half-year)
2008: 222/301/328
2009: 229/314/338
2010: 252/332/461
Essentially, to get Duda to have a good projection, you have to place far, far more emphasis on the most recent year than history justifies. Players with big jumps forward do not show any kind of immunity to this.
I really hope you're not my doctor because this is a pretty shitty way of informing me.
Greg Jefferies. Maybe a tad worse.
Name not picked at random of course. Perhaps the oddest aspect of the Mets' handling of Jefferies is that after tearing up AA with the bat and demonstrating to everybody that he actually wasn't a SS, the Mets gave him a full year at 3B in AAA.
And then had him learn second in the majors. Made no sense to me at the time. Still doesn't.
Yeah, a heck of a lot of major league second basemen learned the position in the majors. But the guys who made the transition look easy were generally much better defensive SS -- usually moved because their arm was marginal or there was a better defensive player in position.
I don't claim he would have succeeded at second with a year in the minors under his belt. But I've never seen a major league second baseman so clearly lacking in the fundamentals and maybe he could have learned enough to be ... well adequate seems a big reach. How about nearly acceptable.
Thanks for the response, Dan. Any sense of whether different types of improvement seem to be more or less sustainable?
For example, Duda has always walked a lot, but in 2010 he struck out less and hit for considerably more power. Any of those more or less likely to bob up and down?
Invent a time machine and go back and hit better in 2008/09
A few years ago I bought one of Shandler's Baseball Forecasters, in it he asserted that Jason Phillips breakout 2003 campaign was likely "sustainable" because his k/bb rate and k/pa rates were consistent with et overall level of production Phillips had shown in 2003...
His K rate was sustainable, his BB rate dropped a bit, but not too much... he lost a little ISO... and oh, his BABIP dropped 80 points and only rebounded by 20 or so by the time MLB showed him the door...
On a related note, Bill Jame once noted that more than a few MLbers had taken "great leaps forward" between the ages 21-24- and essentially stayed there... what James forgot to mention in that particular article was that hindsight is 20/40 at best- as Dan notes there are no small number of young guys who APPEAR to take great leaps forward, and then fall back to where they started.
Duda's age 24 performance could be his peak, an atypical spike year like Erstad had at age 26...
those are his mles for ages 22/23
Inge hit .202/.266/.333 at age 25 and .203/.265/.339 at age 26, the next three years he hit .265/.327/.443 (OPS+ 102)
Twinge's mles are as ugly as his age 25/26 MLB lines- so essentially there was nothing to suggest he would even be an MLB caliber hitter- until suddenly he was (even if only briefly)
I'm confused, what brought this on?
I usually get my Mets breaking news from Sportspyder.com
What do you all use?
So Evans should be useful to someone, but I don't see how it would be to the Mets. There would be no point keeping him around solely to platoon at 1B. Especially since it'd be far more sensible to let Ike get experience hitting MLB lefties anyway.
This year he's looking a lot like the hitter that Sam M once envisioned, and not a peep out of Sam...
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