2011 ZiPS Projections - New York Mets
The team’s not going to trumpet it to the world, but expectations regarding winning in 2011 are pretty low. The team isn’t terrible, but Sandy Alderson and has band of misfits have a lot of legacy problems leftover from the Minaya years and a lot of questions around their frontline talent. Luckily, most of the questions, from the health issues of Beltran and Bay and Santana, to Wright’s defense to Reyes’ future in New York will be answered this season, giving Alderson a clear path forward.
Thanks to the Wilpon problems, the answer in the near future is unlikely to be an aggressive spending push to challenge the Phillies. Between the Wilpons, the McCourts, Moores, Jeff Loria, Hicks, and so on, it’s hard to see exactly what MLB is gaining from needing owner approval of new owners. As far as I can tell, Bud Selig and the welfare queens that make up MLB’s ownership group are worse at screening owners than Paul von Hindenburg was at screening chancellors.
Overall, the Mets have enough potential front-line talent to win 85 games or so, enough to make it interesting for a few months with some luck, but I think the upside this season is pretty limited. Alderson’s goal for 2011 is essentially to keep the team just non-horrible enough to buy him some time to fix the problems.
A couple of side notes. It’s perfectly acceptable to criticize individual projections, but for the love of God, don’t announce in your blog that I think Mets catchers will combine for 2000 at-bats or that Wilmer Flores will be the starting shortstop or that Frankie Cats is still in the organization. I don’t, and I clearly laid out in the disclaimer why certain players appear here and why you can’t simply add up columns to get team totals (or at least I think I did).
Also, ZiPS projections will be appearing in the Amazin’ Avenue annual. I don’t know exactly what will appear from ZiPS, but Eric Simon has access to quite a lot of ODDIBE probability stuff.
I might possibly have missed a minor league signing elsewhere or two - these projections have been in the age for a couple of weeks. I was late Friday with the formatting so I waited until today (competing with the Super Bowl coverage and the normal weekend traffic dropoff and I’d probably struggle to get a couple thousand views of this).
Next up: Phillies
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Batting Projections
Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+
David Wright R 3B 28 .282 .361 .481 155 586 94 165 36 3 25 99 76 142 23 9 127
Carlos Beltran B CF 34 .270 .354 .447 99 367 52 99 20 3 13 54 49 64 10 2 116
Jose Reyes B SS 28 .284 .337 .439 122 517 80 147 27 10 11 54 41 60 39 11 109
Jason Bay R LF 32 .252 .349 .455 122 444 71 112 22 4 20 76 63 123 9 1 117
Ike Davis L 1B 24 .257 .342 .447 152 553 76 142 35 2 22 79 73 154 2 2 113
Angel Pagan B CF 29 .278 .326 .424 114 417 60 116 23 7 8 52 31 68 21 6 102
Dan Murphy L 1B 26 .278 .329 .435 97 331 42 92 22 3 8 55 26 46 5 2 106
Scott Hairston R LF 31 .254 .316 .423 110 338 44 86 19 1 12 44 28 73 6 1 97
Josh Thole L C 24 .273 .342 .380 140 461 48 126 28 3 5 49 47 59 4 2 96
Nick Evans R 1B 25 .248 .305 .425 148 525 70 130 34 4 17 62 43 122 1 1 96
Lucas Duda L LF 25 .243 .323 .408 142 522 62 127 34 2 16 70 56 138 1 3 97
Fernando Tatis R 1B 36 .252 .316 .403 85 238 27 60 13 1 7 30 19 47 2 1 94
Val Pascucci R RF 32 .218 .319 .401 103 344 43 75 16 1 15 46 49 113 2 1 95
Kirk Nieuwenhuis L CF 23 .245 .302 .411 147 608 99 149 40 5 17 78 47 170 13 7 92
Frank Catalanotto L LF 37 .259 .319 .370 52 108 11 28 7 1 1 8 8 15 1 0 87
Justin Turner R 2B 26 .267 .320 .377 129 483 68 129 27 1 8 49 34 71 6 4 89
Fernando Martinez L RF 22 .245 .300 .411 106 380 52 93 22 1 13 45 21 88 4 2 91
Mike Hessman R 3B 33 .216 .298 .414 110 389 48 84 19 2 18 58 40 130 1 2 91
Ronny Paulino R C 30 .257 .310 .370 90 300 30 77 16 0 6 37 24 52 1 1 84
Russ Adams L 2B 30 .243 .299 .384 107 378 50 92 19 2 10 43 29 72 4 2 84
Brad Emaus R 3B 25 .240 .315 .357 147 558 67 134 31 2 10 63 61 90 9 3 81
Zach Lutz R 3B 25 .227 .311 .381 97 365 41 83 18 1 12 50 40 109 1 2 87
Jason Pridie L CF 27 .254 .286 .378 103 418 49 106 16 6 8 41 18 91 17 6 79
Luis Castillo B 2B 35 .259 .345 .308 103 347 49 90 8 3 1 27 46 37 12 4 80
Reese Havens L 2B 24 .223 .306 .373 82 319 36 71 14 2 10 34 33 86 2 3 84
Andy Green R 2B 33 .231 .305 .359 84 273 39 63 13 2 6 28 27 57 3 2 80
Sean Ratliff L CF 24 .236 .279 .393 151 590 76 139 32 5 17 75 34 195 8 6 80
Ruben Tejada R SS 21 .250 .315 .330 156 515 63 129 25 2 4 42 38 86 10 5 76
Eric Campbell R 3B 24 .241 .311 .355 108 394 52 95 22 1 7 44 35 78 3 6 81
Chin-lung Hu R SS 27 .254 .285 .340 98 314 38 80 12 3 3 31 14 42 7 1 69
Dusty Ryan R C 26 .209 .299 .354 92 297 31 62 14 1 9 35 37 114 2 1 77
Jesus Feliciano L RF 32 .272 .311 .327 132 452 53 123 18 2 1 31 22 49 7 7 74
Mike Cervenak R 3B 34 .251 .279 .360 115 450 49 113 23 1 8 46 13 62 2 2 72
Wilmer Flores R SS 19 .248 .284 .361 156 642 63 159 32 4 11 72 28 108 3 5 74
J.R. House R C 31 .241 .287 .344 103 381 38 92 18 0 7 41 23 53 0 1 71
Brahiam Maldonado R LF 25 .216 .270 .361 118 421 41 91 19 3 12 46 26 167 8 4 70
Luis Hernandez B SS 27 .248 .282 .328 117 408 46 101 16 4 3 39 19 64 5 4 65
Jordany Valdespin L 2B 23 .246 .276 .358 98 402 50 99 19 4 6 38 13 86 13 13 71
Mike Nickeas R C 28 .222 .302 .295 71 234 18 52 11 0 2 28 25 53 1 1 63
Jonathan Malo R SS 27 .208 .274 .295 103 312 37 65 12 3 3 26 26 77 6 4 55
Defensive Projections
Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF
David Wright FR/95
Carlos Beltran AV/69
Jose Reyes AV/98
Jason Bay FR/54
Ike Davis VG/111
Angel Pagan VG/108 VG/132 VG/91
Dan Murphy VG/132 FR/117 FR/116 AV/126
Scott Hairston AV/70 FR/157 FR/114
Josh Thole AV FR/109
Nick Evans AV/56 FR/112 AV/128 AV/128
Lucas Duda AV/103 FR/122 FR/122
Fernando Tatis AV/118 PO/111 PO/100 AV/114 FR/93
Val Pascucci AV/150 PO/122
Kirk Nieuwenhuis AV/112 AV/120 AV/132
Frank Catalanotto FR/98 PO/119 PO/119
Justin Turner FR/123 AV/111 PO/116
Fernando Martinez VG/103 FR/69 VG/103
Mike Hessman AV/120 AV/60 PO/112 FR/107
Ronny Paulino AV
Russ Adams AV/130 FR/106 PO/109 AV/136 FR/118
Brad Emaus AV/115 AV/140
Zach Lutz FR/109 FR/114
Jason Pridie VG/102 VG/110 VG/108
Luis Castillo FR/103
Reese Havens AV/108 FR/121
Andy Green AV/99 FR/118 PO/113 FR/102
Sean Ratliff VG/150 FR/115 AV/105
Ruben Tejada VG/126 VG/117
Eric Campbell AV/98 FR/122 FR/105
Chin-lung Hu VG/110 AV/96
Dusty Ryan FR FR/142
Jesus Feliciano VG/67 FR/66 AV/75
Mike Cervenak AV/105 FR/118 AV/111 FR/109
Wilmer Flores FR/116
J.R. House FR
Brahiam Maldonado AV/133 PO/107 FR/102
Luis Hernandez AV/102 AV/88
Jordany Valdespin AV/132 FR/136
Mike Nickeas AV AV/112
Jonathan Malo AV/126 AV/100 FR/108 AV/104 FR/130 AV/105
Pitching Projections - Starters
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Johan Santana L 32 3.39 13 7 27 27 180.3 168 68 17 49 145 120
R.A. Dickey R 36 3.86 11 8 28 25 170.0 173 73 17 46 100 105
Mike Pelfrey R 27 4.12 12 11 32 31 192.3 203 88 15 65 115 99
Chris Capuano L 32 4.15 6 7 28 17 110.7 112 51 12 35 89 98
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96
Jonathon Niese L 25 4.27 9 9 29 29 164.3 171 78 17 59 131 95
Jenrry Mejia R 21 4.30 7 7 22 22 98.3 98 47 8 50 73 95
John Maine R 30 4.34 5 5 15 15 76.7 71 37 9 41 67 94
Kelvim Escobar R 35 4.38 1 1 2 2 12.3 13 6 1 5 8 93
Chris Young R 32 4.53 3 3 10 10 51.7 48 26 7 25 42 90
Pat Misch L 29 4.75 7 8 34 20 134.7 154 71 16 35 72 86
Dillon Gee R 25 4.88 7 9 23 23 127.3 139 69 19 39 96 83
Armando Rodriguez R 23 4.96 7 10 28 28 132.3 140 73 13 73 97 82
Oliver Perez L 29 5.40 4 6 22 18 96.7 95 58 15 67 87 75
Tobi Stoner R 26 5.68 6 11 24 22 123.7 146 78 19 52 71 72
Adam Pettyjohn L 34 5.77 4 7 31 11 82.7 101 53 11 38 42 70
Pitching Statistics - Relievers
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Francisco RodrigueR 29 3.13 4 2 61 0 60.3 48 21 5 29 71 130
Taylor Buchholz R 29 3.65 3 2 44 0 49.3 47 20 4 17 39 111
Bobby Parnell R 26 3.76 2 2 61 0 69.3 66 29 6 26 62 108
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
D. J. Carrasco R 34 3.81 3 2 51 1 75.7 72 32 6 29 59 107
Elmer Dessens R 40 4.15 3 2 37 0 39.0 40 18 4 13 22 98
Manuel Alvarez R 25 4.48 4 5 49 0 62.3 63 31 8 25 49 91
Manny Acosta R 30 4.50 3 4 54 1 60.0 57 30 8 31 53 90
Ryota Igarashi R 32 4.71 3 3 47 0 49.7 50 26 6 25 43 86
Pedro Beato R 24 4.76 2 2 45 0 56.7 59 30 6 26 36 85
Boof Bonser R 29 4.79 1 2 19 3 41.3 45 22 5 14 33 85
Mike O’Connor L 30 4.87 4 5 35 8 77.7 87 42 10 26 53 84
Roy Merritt L 25 5.21 3 5 56 0 67.3 72 39 9 37 47 78
John Lujan R 27 5.52 2 4 47 0 60.3 68 37 7 37 42 74
Josh Stinson R 23 5.53 4 8 38 11 97.7 109 60 12 60 60 74
Extrapolated Career Statistics
Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+
David Wright .284 .358 .472 2584 9864 1496 2805 606 43 385 1582 1148 1996 361 121
Jose Reyes .277 .326 .427 2191 9346 1404 2591 453 175 200 932 671 985 607 100
Carlos Beltran .276 .352 .474 2132 8172 1343 2255 450 79 336 1316 966 1412 329 114
Luis Castillo .287 .365 .347 1899 7117 1084 2045 207 64 29 490 875 913 390 91
Jason Bay .264 .358 .475 1676 6096 978 1612 330 49 285 1035 840 1562 113 119
Angel Pagan .273 .320 .415 1201 4217 583 1153 229 63 80 501 305 640 172 97
Ronny Paulino .261 .314 .370 942 3145 305 822 157 1 61 373 245 524 10 82
Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+
Johan Santana 214 126 1 3.36 527 450 3152 2824 1176 338 886 2828 127
Mike Pelfrey 148 134 1 4.18 391 383 2354 2493 1093 180 815 1395 98
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3
David Wright 3B 55% 27% 11% 5% 1% Gil McDougald Scott Rolen Pinky Higgins
Carlos Beltran CF 55% 23% 16% 5% 1% Jerry Mumphrey Roy WhiteClaudell Washington
Jose Reyes SS 65% 20% 11% 3% 1% Rafael Furcal Jimmy Rollins Tony Fernandez
Jason Bay LF 27% 31% 18% 15% 9% Reggie Sanders Eric Davis Woodie Held
Ike Davis 1B 9% 23% 22% 29% 18% Mario Valdez David Ortiz Adam LaRoche
Angel Pagan CF 28% 25% 26% 15% 6% Willie McGee Mookie Wilson Rajai Davis
Dan Murphy 1B 3% 17% 22% 35% 23% Daryl Sconiers Pete LaCock Wally Joyner
Scott Hairston LF 2% 10% 15% 26% 47% John Valle Brandon Berger Matt Mieske
Josh Thole C 9% 34% 29% 21% 7% James Durrman Mike Scioscia Kurt Suzuki
Nick Evans 1B 1% 5% 11% 34% 49% Kevin Sliwinski Rich Aude Larry See
Lucas Duda LF 2% 8% 13% 24% 53% Larry Broadway Adam LaRoche Marvin Lowrance
Fernando Tatis 1B 2% 5% 10% 31% 52% Russ Morman Rich Aurilia Hector Lopez
Val Pascucci RF 2% 7% 11% 22% 58% Ty Van Burkleo Alan Zinter Jason Dubois
Kirk Nieuwenhuis CF 8% 12% 22% 27% 30% Myron White Lloyd Moseby Ty Gainey
Frank Catalanotto LF 1% 3% 4% 11% 80% Russ Snyder Brian Jordan Mike Kingery
Justin Turner 2B 7% 10% 17% 28% 39% Mark Lewis Ramon Martinez Billy Ripken
Fernando Martinez RF 2% 8% 11% 19% 60% Jose Malave Juan Encarnacion Chris James
Mike Hessman 3B 2% 8% 15% 26% 49% Brandon Inge Mike Coolbaugh Cody Ransom
Ronny Paulino C 3% 14% 21% 32% 29% Yorvit Torrealba Jason Hill Ed Ott
Russ Adams 2B 4% 7% 13% 27% 50% Mike Bell Shanie Dugas Luis Rivera
Brad Emaus 3B 1% 5% 10% 21% 64% Garrett Atkins Paul Janish Mark Kiger
Zach Lutz 3B 1% 5% 11% 23% 60% Paul Russo Mike Costanzo Jared Sandberg
Jason Pridie CF 2% 4% 11% 25% 57% Lou Thornton Herm Winningham McKay Christensen
Luis Castillo 2B 3% 5% 10% 23% 58% Mark McLemore Jamey Carroll Craig Counsell
Reese Havens 2B 5% 5% 8% 17% 65% Todd Carey Ken Bonifay Chris Lombardozzi
Andy Green 2B 4% 4% 7% 16% 70% Dave Matranga Chris Petersen Jed Hansen
Sean Ratliff CF 1% 4% 11% 23% 61% Myron White Lloyd Moseby Ralph Bryant
Ruben Tejada SS 2% 5% 17% 30% 46% Ivan Mesa Pedro Chavez David Lamb
Eric Campbell 3B 0% 2% 4% 11% 83% Jared Goedert Jose Valdez John Hattig
Chin-lung Hu SS 1% 4% 12% 27% 56% Hector Rincones Jackie Gutierrez Craig Shipley
Dusty Ryan C 2% 5% 10% 27% 57% Henry Mercedes David Ross Dan Whitmer
Jesus Feliciano RF 0% 0% 1% 2% 97% Aaron Miles Jim Eppard Doc Cramer
Mike Cervenak 3B 1% 1% 3% 8% 88% Frank Bolling Mark Christman Ron Coomer
Wilmer Flores SS 4% 4% 9% 19% 65% Fred Manrique Gregorio Petit Hector Rincones
J.R. House C 0% 3% 7% 20% 70% Raul Chavez Rick Cerone Scott Servais
Brahiam Maldonado LF 0% 0% 1% 2% 96% Rondal Rollin Michael Rodriguez Willie Magallanes
Luis Hernandez SS 0% 1% 5% 14% 79% Craig Shipley Casey Smith Carlo Colombino
Jordany Valdespin 2B 0% 0% 0% 1% 98% Greg Tabor Tim Florez Juan Melo
Mike Nickeas C 0% 1% 3% 10% 86% Chris Tremie Joe Hietpas Matt Garrick
Jonathan Malo SS 0% 0% 1% 3% 95% Erick Monzon Brian Keck Giomar Guevara
Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3
Francisco RodrigueRP 55% 38% 7% Dick Radatz Brad Lidge Jim Kern
Johan Santana SP 73% 22% 5% Jimmy Key Bruce Hurst Frank Viola
Taylor Buchholz RP 29% 48% 23% Rich Monteleone Gene Nelson Geoff Geary
Bobby Parnell RP 29% 54% 17% Steve Olin Brad Clontz Jose Alvarez
D. J. Carrasco RP 31% 54% 15% Rollie Fingers Andy McGaffigan Anthony Telford
R.A. Dickey SP 37% 45% 18% Gil Heredia Kevin Tapani Ken Forsch
Mike Pelfrey SP 28% 52% 20% Dennis Lamp Chien-Ming Wang Bob Moose
Chris Capuano SP 27% 49% 23% David Wells Jon Matlack Chris Hammond
Elmer Dessens RP 27% 30% 42% Jim Turner Dolf Luque Mike Ryba
Jonathon Niese SP 18% 60% 22% Mark Guthrie Steve Trout Sterling Hitchcock
Jenrry Mejia SP 21% 50% 28% Shawn Hillegas Mike Payne Charlie Lea
John Maine SP 19% 46% 36% Kip Wells Chan Ho Park Bobby Witt
Kelvim Escobar SP 39% 16% 45% Tim Belcher Mike Torrez Steve Sparks
Manuel Alvarez RP 6% 36% 57% Jeremy Hernandez Dario Veras Greg Hansell
Manny Acosta RP 5% 35% 59% Chad Harville Richie Lewis Johnny Ruffin
Chris Young SP 19% 35% 46% Mark Gardner Robert Person Tim Wakefield
Ryota Igarashi RP 5% 25% 70% Mark Corey Juan Eichelberger Reggie Harris
Pat Misch SP 8% 40% 53% Eric Hillman Chuck Stobbs Eric Knott
Pedro Beato RP 4% 26% 70% Jimmy Myers Steve Gomez Jeremy Wedel
Boof Bonser RP 5% 5% 90% Randy O’Neal John Wasdin Donn Pall
Mike O’Connor RP 4% 26% 70% Tony Fossas Chris Key Tommy Phelps
Dillon Gee SP 3% 35% 61% Dave Telgheder Keith Foulke Oil Can Boyd
Armando Rodriguez SP 2% 33% 65% Denny Bautista Matt Albers Kevin Ritz
Roy Merritt RP 1% 14% 86% Brad Weis Paul Mancuso Mike Dalton
Oliver Perez SP 1% 15% 83% David West Ken Kravec Herb Score
John Lujan RP 0% 8% 92% Don Timberlake Jean Machi Tim Corcoran
Josh Stinson RP 0% 4% 96% Willis Roberts Ernie Delgado Jerry Dipoto
Tobi Stoner SP 0% 6% 94% Kyle Middleton Rich Yett Nick Roberts
Adam Pettyjohn SP 0% 5% 95% Chris Michalak Curt Young Jason Jacome
Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB
David Wright 23% 31% 32% 16% 2% 26% 24% 22%
Carlos Beltran 15% 23% 14% 0% 0% 1% 11% 1%
Jose Reyes 26% 9% 10% 1% 53% 2% 6% 71%
Jason Bay 4% 19% 16% 0% 2% 8% 11% 0%
Ike Davis 4% 13% 11% 11% 1% 12% 7% 0%
Angel Pagan 20% 5% 4% 0% 20% 0% 1% 12%
Dan Murphy 19% 6% 6% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0%
Scott Hairston 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Josh Thole 13% 11% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Nick Evans 1% 0% 2% 7% 3% 2% 0% 0%
Lucas Duda 1% 3% 2% 7% 0% 1% 1% 0%
Fernando Tatis 6% 4% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Val Pascucci 0% 3% 2% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0%
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 1% 0% 3% 29% 11% 5% 1% 2%
Frank Catalanotto 15% 9% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Justin Turner 9% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Fernando Martinez 2% 1% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mike Hessman 0% 0% 3% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0%
Ronny Paulino 6% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Russ Adams 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Brad Emaus 0% 1% 0% 2% 1% 1% 0% 1%
Zach Lutz 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jason Pridie 3% 0% 1% 0% 16% 0% 0% 4%
Luis Castillo 8% 15% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 3%
Reese Havens 1% 2% 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0%
Andy Green 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Sean Ratliff 0% 0% 1% 5% 11% 4% 0% 0%
Ruben Tejada 1% 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 2%
Eric Campbell 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chin-lung Hu 4% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Dusty Ryan 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jesus Feliciano 13% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Mike Cervenak 3% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
Wilmer Flores 2% 0% 3% 14% 9% 4% 1% 0%
J.R. House 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Brahiam Maldonado 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Luis Hernandez 2% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Jordany Valdespin 2% 0% 1% 0% 4% 0% 0% 2%
Mike Nickeas 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jonathan Malo 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1
Francisco Rodrigue 55% 91% 96% 0% 87%
Johan Santana 36% 90% 17% 16% 76%
Taylor Buchholz 22% 70% 35% 9% 48%
Bobby Parnell 23% 73% 44% 2% 88%
D. J. Carrasco 25% 81% 10% 2% 84%
R.A. Dickey 13% 59% 2% 28% 70%
Mike Pelfrey 5% 53% 2% 5% 89%
Chris Capuano 7% 46% 26% 8% 49%
Elmer Dessens 21% 50% 2% 19% 67%
Jonathon Niese 3% 41% 15% 1% 68%
Jenrry Mejia 5% 41% 9% 0% 89%
John Maine 4% 34% 44% 0% 62%
Kelvim Escobar 23% 39% 7% 23% 66%
Manuel Alvarez 4% 36% 12% 2% 51%
Manny Acosta 5% 33% 40% 0% 49%
Chris Young 7% 32% 25% 0% 40%
Ryota Igarashi 3% 23% 40% 0% 63%
Pat Misch 1% 20% 0% 32% 54%
Pedro Beato 2% 23% 1% 0% 63%
Boof Bonser 5% 32% 26% 12% 67%
Mike O'Connor 3% 21% 4% 7% 54%
Dillon Gee 0% 14% 7% 5% 18%
Armando Rodriguez 0% 9% 4% 0% 75%
Roy Merritt 0% 8% 2% 0% 50%
Oliver Perez 0% 4% 53% 0% 23%
John Lujan 0% 6% 3% 0% 59%
Josh Stinson 0% 2% 0% 0% 48%
Tobi Stoner 0% 1% 0% 0% 19%
Adam Pettyjohn 0% 3% 0% 2% 39%
All figures in % based on projection playing time
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Baltimore Orioles
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
Houston Astros
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers
Minnesota Twins
San Francisco Giants
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
Dan Szymborski
Posted: February 07, 2011 at 06:43 PM |
116 comment(s)
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This year he's looking a lot like the hitter that Sam M once envisioned, and not a peep out of Sam...
Peep!
Here's an interesting thread . . . . One thing to note in looking over that discussion was how much air has come out of offense just since 2008. That year, .850 OPS translated into about a 120 OPS+, whereas Murphy right now has an .802 and a 123.
But I haven't been saying much -- just enjoying it -- because while I think there's some vindication in seeing Murphy show that he is capable of doing what I believed he could do, there's also some wisdom to gain from having not been cautious enough to realize that the road between where he was entering the 2009 season and actually producing like he is now might not be a straight line from Point A to Point B. So I'm not going to just crow.
In any case, it's going to be very interesting how Alderson handles the young, cost-controlled bats he has in Murphy, Ike, and perhaps Duda, because all three of them don't fit well together (at least not as starters) into a team that is going to play any sort of decent defense.
Only 1 can play 1B
Murphy was worse than Duda in the OF
Only 1 can play 1B
This.
Once you slot one of them at 1B, where do you make room for the other two in an alignment that doesn't leave you badly exposed? We still don't know if Murphy can be an everyday second baseman. I am convinced that Duda can be a corner outfielder only if he's got an all-star caliber bat to make up for the defense we'll suffer with. Perhaps the least-bad overall alignment (though it would leave NO position as a plus) would put Duda at 1B and Davis in RF or LF, but again -- no plus positions, and it depends on Ike being able to handle a corner OF slot.
The overall team defense is definitely going to be an issue, if you are committed to these three.
That leaves Duda and Murphy. I agree with Sam on Duda's defense/running: I think Duda has to hit really well in order to be an asset in leftfield. I don't know enough about him as a hitter yet to really say anything. I'm kind of skeptical. Duda really reminds me of Mark Johnson. I think that might be his future, the pinch-hitting or platooning 1B/LF guy that usually gets 250 ABs in a year. Limited use to the Mets if Ike is healthy. But given that Beltran might be leaving the organization soon, might as well stick him in the outfield and see what happens. Perhaps he is a good enough hitter.
Murphy is the only one we really have to debate about. Let's relive something I said in the 2008 thread that Sam linked: "I am worried that Murphy is going to become stuck between positions. As a secondbaseman, a good hitter but an awful fielder. As a leftfielder, a mediocre hitter and fielder." Well, this kind of happened. He might be a better hitter than I predicted, but a worse fielder, at least in the outfield. If Murphy is really an OPS+ 120 guy, he deserves to be starting on some team at one of the corners. If he's really the 110 OPS+, as I suspect, then he is tailor made to be the new Dave Magadan, 300 yearly ABs split between first and third, lots of pinch-hitting. The problem is that the Mets don't need that guy, because they have strong players at those two positions, and one of them's a lefty. Unless Murphy can play second, or be non-atrocious in the outfield, he doesn't really belong anywhere.
There's another possibility: let's say he's a legit 120 OPS+ guy, and he can play second base well enough to fill in capably when needed, while not being good enough to play it every day at a level you're comfortable with. Then you've got a situation where he can be extremely valuable getting 400+ PAs a year filling in some days at 1B, 2B and 3B. It might not be the best thing for his career, but it'd be awesome for the Mets to have a bench player of that versatility and productivity with the bat. He doesn't have to be Brandon Phillips with the glove at 2B if utility duty at the position is all you're asking of him. To me, this is one part of how you build a really outstanding team instead of just a contender: you slot in guys who are too good for the role, instead of guys who are just good enough. If Murphy is too good to be a utility player, then the Mets are one step closer to being great.
Maybe he deserves another shot at the outfield. Last time he was there, I was the first to condemn him as forever useless, and tossed around adjectives like Hundleyesque. But it would really help the team if he could do it. Is that crazy? I kind of forget how bad he was.
-4 DRS
-2.9 UZR
-8.7 UZR/150
UZR sees Turner about average in range, and below-average in both errors and turning the double play.
In about half the innings at 2B as Turner, Murphy has the following numbers:
-3 DRS
1.9 UZR
13.4 UZR/150
I'd be shocked if Murphy is as good as UZR thinks in this all too-small sample. But I think the take away is that he's not a given to be awful defensively. He's displayed good range there, which should be no surprise because he showed good range at 1B, too. And he's been just below average turning the double play, which was a big worry.
I don't think Murphy should be relegated to super-sub, 400 PA status. He should be starting at second base, possibly with a defensive caddy to come in and relieve him in the late innings.
You might as well throw all of those numbers in the garbage. Quite aside from the still very open question on whether or not defensive stats are reliable, even the inventors of UZR etc agree that the sample of 60 games is nearly meaningless.
My opinion on Murphy at second was - definitely below average. He didn't seem like a disaster. But he also didn't seem like a disaster in the OF in 2008, and we know what happened the next spring. He deserves another shot at it, and I would be thrilled if we could call him "mediocre."
Turner, to my eyes, is kind of whatever. He's not a plus but he's not terrible. Maybe somewhat below average. Dan Uggla or Jeff Kent.
*Career line of .310/.398/.606 in AAA.
In fact 2010-2011:
.286/.411/.503 in AA (197 PAs)
.310/.398/.606 in AAA (455 PAs)
.260/.328/.454 in MLB (297 PAs, 114 OPS+)
pity he's such a lumbering ox in the field.
Speaking of which Mike Carp is now .300/.372/.471 for his MLB career (250 PAs)
Nick Evans has really never got untracked, but we have Zach Lutz (.300/.372/.471 in AA, .308/.388/.514 in AAA, minor league career of .288/.382/.484) and Josh Satin (.317/.410/.508 in AA, .317/.410/.508 in AAA, and .308/.399/.472 for his minor league career)
all are "old" and all are defensively challenged, and my question is this, given that the Mets can generate these guys by the busload, where were these guys (or their equivalents) back in 03/04/05 when 1B was a bottomless pit of suck for the Mets?
He almost certainly still stinks, but still.
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