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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, February 07, 2011

2011 ZiPS Projections - New York Mets

The team’s not going to trumpet it to the world, but expectations regarding winning in 2011 are pretty low.  The team isn’t terrible, but Sandy Alderson and has band of misfits have a lot of legacy problems leftover from the Minaya years and a lot of questions around their frontline talent.  Luckily, most of the questions, from the health issues of Beltran and Bay and Santana, to Wright’s defense to Reyes’ future in New York will be answered this season, giving Alderson a clear path forward.

Thanks to the Wilpon problems, the answer in the near future is unlikely to be an aggressive spending push to challenge the Phillies.  Between the Wilpons, the McCourts, Moores, Jeff Loria, Hicks, and so on, it’s hard to see exactly what MLB is gaining from needing owner approval of new owners.  As far as I can tell, Bud Selig and the welfare queens that make up MLB’s ownership group are worse at screening owners than Paul von Hindenburg was at screening chancellors.

Overall, the Mets have enough potential front-line talent to win 85 games or so, enough to make it interesting for a few months with some luck, but I think the upside this season is pretty limited.  Alderson’s goal for 2011 is essentially to keep the team just non-horrible enough to buy him some time to fix the problems.

A couple of side notes.  It’s perfectly acceptable to criticize individual projections, but for the love of God, don’t announce in your blog that I think Mets catchers will combine for 2000 at-bats or that Wilmer Flores will be the starting shortstop or that Frankie Cats is still in the organization.  I don’t, and I clearly laid out in the disclaimer why certain players appear here and why you can’t simply add up columns to get team totals (or at least I think I did).

Also, ZiPS projections will be appearing in the Amazin’ Avenue annual.  I don’t know exactly what will appear from ZiPS, but Eric Simon has access to quite a lot of ODDIBE probability stuff.

I might possibly have missed a minor league signing elsewhere or two - these projections have been in the age for a couple of weeks.  I was late Friday with the formatting so I waited until today (competing with the Super Bowl coverage and the normal weekend traffic dropoff and I’d probably struggle to get a couple thousand views of this).

Next up:  Phillies

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
David Wright      R    3B   28   .282 .361 .481 155 586  94 165  36   3  25  99  76 142  23   9  127
Carlos Beltran    B    CF   34   .270 .354 .447  99 367  52  99  20   3  13  54  49  64  10   2  116
Jose Reyes        B    SS   28   .284 .337 .439 122 517  80 147  27  10  11  54  41  60  39  11  109
Jason Bay         R    LF   32   .252 .349 .455 122 444  71 112  22   4  20  76  63 123   9   1  117
Ike Davis         L    1B   24   .257 .342 .447 152 553  76 142  35   2  22  79  73 154   2   2  113
Angel Pagan       B    CF   29   .278 .326 .424 114 417  60 116  23   7   8  52  31  68  21   6  102
Dan Murphy        L    1B   26   .278 .329 .435  97 331  42  92  22   3   8  55  26  46   5   2  106
Scott Hairston    R    LF   31   .254 .316 .423 110 338  44  86  19   1  12  44  28  73   6   1   97
Josh Thole        L    C    24   .273 .342 .380 140 461  48 126  28   3   5  49  47  59   4   2   96
Nick Evans        R    1B   25   .248 .305 .425 148 525  70 130  34   4  17  62  43 122   1   1   96
Lucas Duda        L    LF   25   .243 .323 .408 142 522  62 127  34   2  16  70  56 138   1   3   97
Fernando Tatis    R    1B   36   .252 .316 .403  85 238  27  60  13   1   7  30  19  47   2   1   94
Val Pascucci      R    RF   32   .218 .319 .401 103 344  43  75  16   1  15  46  49 113   2   1   95
Kirk Nieuwenhuis  L    CF   23   .245 .302 .411 147 608  99 149  40   5  17  78  47 170  13   7   92
Frank Catalanotto L    LF   37   .259 .319 .370  52 108  11  28   7   1   1   8   8  15   1   0   87
Justin Turner     R    2B   26   .267 .320 .377 129 483  68 129  27   1   8  49  34  71   6   4   89
Fernando Martinez L    RF   22   .245 .300 .411 106 380  52  93  22   1  13  45  21  88   4   2   91
Mike Hessman      R    3B   33   .216 .298 .414 110 389  48  84  19   2  18  58  40 130   1   2   91
Ronny Paulino     R    C    30   .257 .310 .370  90 300  30  77  16   0   6  37  24  52   1   1   84
Russ Adams        L    2B   30   .243 .299 .384 107 378  50  92  19   2  10  43  29  72   4   2   84
Brad Emaus        R    3B   25   .240 .315 .357 147 558  67 134  31   2  10  63  61  90   9   3   81
Zach Lutz         R    3B   25   .227 .311 .381  97 365  41  83  18   1  12  50  40 109   1   2   87
Jason Pridie      L    CF   27   .254 .286 .378 103 418  49 106  16   6   8  41  18  91  17   6   79
Luis Castillo     B    2B   35   .259 .345 .308 103 347  49  90   8   3   1  27  46  37  12   4   80
Reese Havens      L    2B   24   .223 .306 .373  82 319  36  71  14   2  10  34  33  86   2   3   84
Andy Green        R    2B   33   .231 .305 .359  84 273  39  63  13   2   6  28  27  57   3   2   80
Sean Ratliff      L    CF   24   .236 .279 .393 151 590  76 139  32   5  17  75  34 195   8   6   80
Ruben Tejada      R    SS   21   .250 .315 .330 156 515  63 129  25   2   4  42  38  86  10   5   76
Eric Campbell     R    3B   24   .241 .311 .355 108 394  52  95  22   1   7  44  35  78   3   6   81
Chin-lung Hu      R    SS   27   .254 .285 .340  98 314  38  80  12   3   3  31  14  42   7   1   69
Dusty Ryan        R    C    26   .209 .299 .354  92 297  31  62  14   1   9  35  37 114   2   1   77
Jesus Feliciano   L    RF   32   .272 .311 .327 132 452  53 123  18   2   1  31  22  49   7   7   74
Mike Cervenak     R    3B   34   .251 .279 .360 115 450  49 113  23   1   8  46  13  62   2   2   72
Wilmer Flores     R    SS   19   .248 .284 .361 156 642  63 159  32   4  11  72  28 108   3   5   74
J.R. House        R    C    31   .241 .287 .344 103 381  38  92  18   0   7  41  23  53   0   1   71
Brahiam Maldonado R    LF   25   .216 .270 .361 118 421  41  91  19   3  12  46  26 167   8   4   70
Luis Hernandez    B    SS   27   .248 .282 .328 117 408  46 101  16   4   3  39  19  64   5   4   65
Jordany Valdespin L    2B   23   .246 .276 .358  98 402  50  99  19   4   6  38  13  86  13  13   71
Mike Nickeas      R    C    28   .222 .302 .295  71 234  18  52  11   0   2  28  25  53   1   1   63
Jonathan Malo     R    SS   27   .208 .274 .295 103 312  37  65  12   3   3  26  26  77   6   4   55

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
David Wright                                  FR/95
Carlos Beltran                                                        AV/69
Jose Reyes                                            AV/98
Jason Bay                                                     FR/54
Ike Davis                    VG/111
Angel Pagan                                                  VG/108  VG/132   VG/91
Dan Murphy                   VG/132  FR/117  FR/116          AV/126
Scott Hairston                                                AV/70  FR/157  FR/114
Josh Thole               AV  FR/109
Nick Evans                    AV/56          FR/112          AV/128          AV/128
Lucas Duda                   AV/103                          FR/122          FR/122
Fernando Tatis               AV/118  PO/111  PO/100          AV/114           FR/93
Val Pascucci                 AV/150                                          PO/122
Kirk Nieuwenhuis                                             AV/112  AV/120  AV/132
Frank Catalanotto             FR/98                          PO/119          PO/119
Justin Turner                        FR/123  AV/111  PO/116
Fernando Martinez                                            VG/103   FR/69  VG/103
Mike Hessman                 AV/120           AV/60  PO/112                  FR/107
Ronny Paulino            AV
Russ Adams                           AV/130  FR/106  PO/109  AV/136          FR/118
Brad Emaus                           AV/115  AV/140
Zach Lutz                    FR/109          FR/114
Jason Pridie                                                 VG/102  VG/110  VG/108
Luis Castillo                        FR/103
Reese Havens                         AV/108          FR/121
Andy Green                            AV/99  FR/118  PO/113  FR/102
Sean Ratliff                                                 VG/150  FR/115  AV/105
Ruben Tejada                         VG/126          VG/117
Eric Campbell                 AV/98          FR/122          FR/105
Chin-lung Hu                         VG/110           AV/96
Dusty Ryan               FR  FR/142
Jesus Feliciano                                               VG/67   FR/66   AV/75
Mike Cervenak                AV/105          FR/118          AV/111          FR/109
Wilmer Flores                                        FR/116
J.R. House               FR
Brahiam Maldonado                                            AV/133  PO/107  FR/102
Luis Hernandez                       AV/102           AV/88
Jordany Valdespin                    AV/132          FR/136
Mike Nickeas             AV  AV/112
Jonathan Malo                        AV/126  AV/100  FR/108  AV/104  FR/130  AV/105

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Johan Santana     L      32     3.39    13    7   27   27   180.3  168   68   17   49  145   120
R.A. Dickey       R      36     3.86    11    8   28   25   170.0  173   73   17   46  100   105
Mike Pelfrey      R      27     4.12    12   11   32   31   192.3  203   88   15   65  115    99
Chris Capuano     L      32     4.15     6    7   28   17   110.7  112   51   12   35   89    98
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Jonathon Niese    L      25     4.27     9    9   29   29   164.3  171   78   17   59  131    95
Jenrry Mejia      R      21     4.30     7    7   22   22    98.3   98   47    8   50   73    95
John Maine        R      30     4.34     5    5   15   15    76.7   71   37    9   41   67    94
Kelvim Escobar    R      35     4.38     1    1    2    2    12.3   13    6    1    5    8    93
Chris Young       R      32     4.53     3    3   10   10    51.7   48   26    7   25   42    90
Pat Misch         L      29     4.75     7    8   34   20   134.7  154   71   16   35   72    86
Dillon Gee        R      25     4.88     7    9   23   23   127.3  139   69   19   39   96    83
Armando Rodriguez R      23     4.96     7   10   28   28   132.3  140   73   13   73   97    82
Oliver Perez      L      29     5.40     4    6   22   18    96.7   95   58   15   67   87    75
Tobi Stoner       R      26     5.68     6   11   24   22   123.7  146   78   19   52   71    72
Adam Pettyjohn    L      34     5.77     4    7   31   11    82.7  101   53   11   38   42    70


Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Francisco RodrigueR      29     3.13     4    2   61    0    60.3   48   21    5   29   71   130
Taylor Buchholz   R      29     3.65     3    2   44    0    49.3   47   20    4   17   39   111
Bobby Parnell     R      26     3.76     2    2   61    0    69.3   66   29    6   26   62   108
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
D. J. Carrasco    R      34     3.81     3    2   51    1    75.7   72   32    6   29   59   107
Elmer Dessens     R      40     4.15     3    2   37    0    39.0   40   18    4   13   22    98
Manuel Alvarez    R      25     4.48     4    5   49    0    62.3   63   31    8   25   49    91
Manny Acosta      R      30     4.50     3    4   54    1    60.0   57   30    8   31   53    90
Ryota Igarashi    R      32     4.71     3    3   47    0    49.7   50   26    6   25   43    86
Pedro Beato       R      24     4.76     2    2   45    0    56.7   59   30    6   26   36    85
Boof Bonser       R      29     4.79     1    2   19    3    41.3   45   22    5   14   33    85
Mike O’Connor     L      30     4.87     4    5   35    8    77.7   87   42   10   26   53    84
Roy Merritt       L      25     5.21     3    5   56    0    67.3   72   39    9   37   47    78
John Lujan        R      27     5.52     2    4   47    0    60.3   68   37    7   37   42    74
Josh Stinson      R      23     5.53     4    8   38   11    97.7  109   60   12   60   60    74


Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
David Wright         .284  .358  .472  2584  9864  1496  2805   606    43   385  1582  1148  1996   361   121
Jose Reyes           .277  .326  .427  2191  9346  1404  2591   453   175   200   932   671   985   607   100
Carlos Beltran       .276  .352  .474  2132  8172  1343  2255   450    79   336  1316   966  1412   329   114
Luis Castillo        .287  .365  .347  1899  7117  1084  2045   207    64    29   490   875   913   390    91
Jason Bay            .264  .358  .475  1676  6096   978  1612   330    49   285  1035   840  1562   113   119
Angel Pagan          .273  .320  .415  1201  4217   583  1153   229    63    80   501   305   640   172    97
Ronny Paulino        .261  .314  .370   942  3145   305   822   157     1    61   373   245   524    10    82

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Johan Santana      214  126    1    3.36  527  450     3152 2824 1176  338  886 2828    127
Mike Pelfrey       148  134    1    4.18  391  383     2354 2493 1093  180  815 1395     98

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
David Wright      3B     55%  27%  11%   5%   1%      Gil McDougald        Scott Rolen      Pinky Higgins
Carlos Beltran    CF     55%  23%  16%   5%   1%     Jerry Mumphrey          Roy WhiteClaudell Washington
Jose Reyes        SS     65%  20%  11%   3%   1%      Rafael Furcal      Jimmy Rollins     Tony Fernandez
Jason Bay         LF     27%  31%  18%  15%   9%     Reggie Sanders         Eric Davis        Woodie Held
Ike Davis         1B      9%  23%  22%  29%  18%       Mario Valdez        David Ortiz       Adam LaRoche
Angel Pagan       CF     28%  25%  26%  15%   6%       Willie McGee      Mookie Wilson        Rajai Davis
Dan Murphy        1B      3%  17%  22%  35%  23%     Daryl Sconiers        Pete LaCock       Wally Joyner
Scott Hairston    LF      2%  10%  15%  26%  47%         John Valle     Brandon Berger        Matt Mieske
Josh Thole        C       9%  34%  29%  21%   7%      James Durrman      Mike Scioscia        Kurt Suzuki
Nick Evans        1B      1%   5%  11%  34%  49%    Kevin Sliwinski          Rich Aude          Larry See
Lucas Duda        LF      2%   8%  13%  24%  53%     Larry Broadway       Adam LaRoche    Marvin Lowrance
Fernando Tatis    1B      2%   5%  10%  31%  52%        Russ Morman       Rich Aurilia       Hector Lopez
Val Pascucci      RF      2%   7%  11%  22%  58%     Ty Van Burkleo        Alan Zinter       Jason Dubois
Kirk Nieuwenhuis  CF      8%  12%  22%  27%  30%        Myron White       Lloyd Moseby          Ty Gainey
Frank Catalanotto LF      1%   3%   4%  11%  80%        Russ Snyder       Brian Jordan       Mike Kingery
Justin Turner     2B      7%  10%  17%  28%  39%         Mark Lewis     Ramon Martinez       Billy Ripken
Fernando Martinez RF      2%   8%  11%  19%  60%        Jose Malave   Juan Encarnacion        Chris James
Mike Hessman      3B      2%   8%  15%  26%  49%       Brandon Inge     Mike Coolbaugh        Cody Ransom
Ronny Paulino     C       3%  14%  21%  32%  29%   Yorvit Torrealba         Jason Hill             Ed Ott
Russ Adams        2B      4%   7%  13%  27%  50%          Mike Bell       Shanie Dugas        Luis Rivera
Brad Emaus        3B      1%   5%  10%  21%  64%     Garrett Atkins        Paul Janish         Mark Kiger
Zach Lutz         3B      1%   5%  11%  23%  60%         Paul Russo      Mike Costanzo     Jared Sandberg
Jason Pridie      CF      2%   4%  11%  25%  57%       Lou Thornton    Herm Winningham  McKay Christensen
Luis Castillo     2B      3%   5%  10%  23%  58%      Mark McLemore      Jamey Carroll     Craig Counsell
Reese Havens      2B      5%   5%   8%  17%  65%         Todd Carey        Ken Bonifay  Chris Lombardozzi
Andy Green        2B      4%   4%   7%  16%  70%      Dave Matranga     Chris Petersen         Jed Hansen
Sean Ratliff      CF      1%   4%  11%  23%  61%        Myron White       Lloyd Moseby       Ralph Bryant
Ruben Tejada      SS      2%   5%  17%  30%  46%          Ivan Mesa       Pedro Chavez         David Lamb
Eric Campbell     3B      0%   2%   4%  11%  83%      Jared Goedert        Jose Valdez        John Hattig
Chin-lung Hu      SS      1%   4%  12%  27%  56%    Hector Rincones   Jackie Gutierrez      Craig Shipley
Dusty Ryan        C       2%   5%  10%  27%  57%     Henry Mercedes         David Ross        Dan Whitmer
Jesus Feliciano   RF      0%   0%   1%   2%  97%        Aaron Miles         Jim Eppard         Doc Cramer
Mike Cervenak     3B      1%   1%   3%   8%  88%      Frank Bolling     Mark Christman         Ron Coomer
Wilmer Flores     SS      4%   4%   9%  19%  65%      Fred Manrique     Gregorio Petit    Hector Rincones
J.R. House        C       0%   3%   7%  20%  70%        Raul Chavez        Rick Cerone      Scott Servais
Brahiam Maldonado LF      0%   0%   1%   2%  96%      Rondal Rollin  Michael Rodriguez  Willie Magallanes
Luis Hernandez    SS      0%   1%   5%  14%  79%      Craig Shipley        Casey Smith    Carlo Colombino
Jordany Valdespin 2B      0%   0%   0%   1%  98%         Greg Tabor         Tim Florez          Juan Melo
Mike Nickeas      C       0%   1%   3%  10%  86%       Chris Tremie        Joe Hietpas       Matt Garrick
Jonathan Malo     SS      0%   0%   1%   3%  95%       Erick Monzon         Brian Keck     Giomar Guevara

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Francisco RodrigueRP      55%    38%     7%        Dick Radatz         Brad Lidge           Jim Kern
Johan Santana     SP      73%    22%     5%          Jimmy Key        Bruce Hurst        Frank Viola
Taylor Buchholz   RP      29%    48%    23%    Rich Monteleone        Gene Nelson        Geoff Geary
Bobby Parnell     RP      29%    54%    17%         Steve Olin        Brad Clontz       Jose Alvarez
D. J. Carrasco    RP      31%    54%    15%     Rollie Fingers    Andy McGaffigan    Anthony Telford
R.A. Dickey       SP      37%    45%    18%        Gil Heredia       Kevin Tapani         Ken Forsch
Mike Pelfrey      SP      28%    52%    20%        Dennis Lamp    Chien-Ming Wang          Bob Moose
Chris Capuano     SP      27%    49%    23%        David Wells        Jon Matlack      Chris Hammond
Elmer Dessens     RP      27%    30%    42%         Jim Turner         Dolf Luque          Mike Ryba
Jonathon Niese    SP      18%    60%    22%       Mark Guthrie        Steve Trout Sterling Hitchcock
Jenrry Mejia      SP      21%    50%    28%     Shawn Hillegas         Mike Payne        Charlie Lea
John Maine        SP      19%    46%    36%          Kip Wells       Chan Ho Park         Bobby Witt
Kelvim Escobar    SP      39%    16%    45%        Tim Belcher        Mike Torrez       Steve Sparks
Manuel Alvarez    RP       6%    36%    57%   Jeremy Hernandez        Dario Veras       Greg Hansell
Manny Acosta      RP       5%    35%    59%      Chad Harville       Richie Lewis      Johnny Ruffin
Chris Young       SP      19%    35%    46%       Mark Gardner      Robert Person      Tim Wakefield
Ryota Igarashi    RP       5%    25%    70%         Mark Corey  Juan Eichelberger      Reggie Harris
Pat Misch         SP       8%    40%    53%       Eric Hillman       Chuck Stobbs         Eric Knott
Pedro Beato       RP       4%    26%    70%        Jimmy Myers        Steve Gomez       Jeremy Wedel
Boof Bonser       RP       5%    5%     90%       Randy O’Neal        John Wasdin          Donn Pall
Mike O’Connor     RP       4%    26%    70%        Tony Fossas          Chris Key       Tommy Phelps
Dillon Gee        SP       3%    35%    61%     Dave Telgheder       Keith Foulke       Oil Can Boyd
Armando Rodriguez SP       2%    33%    65%     Denny Bautista        Matt Albers         Kevin Ritz
Roy Merritt       RP       1%    14%    86%          Brad Weis       Paul Mancuso        Mike Dalton
Oliver Perez      SP       1%    15%    83%         David West         Ken Kravec         Herb Score
John Lujan        RP       0%     8%    92%     Don Timberlake         Jean Machi       Tim Corcoran
Josh Stinson      RP       0%     4%    96%     Willis Roberts      Ernie Delgado       Jerry Dipoto
Tobi Stoner       SP       0%     6%    94%     Kyle Middleton          Rich Yett       Nick Roberts
Adam Pettyjohn    SP       0%     5%    95%     Chris Michalak         Curt Young       Jason Jacome

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
David Wright            23%      31%      32%      16%       2%      26%      24%      22%
Carlos Beltran          15%      23%      14%       0%       0%       1%      11%       1%
Jose Reyes              26%       9%      10%       1%      53%       2%       6%      71%
Jason Bay                4%      19%      16%       0%       2%       8%      11%       0%
Ike Davis                4%      13%      11%      11%       1%      12%       7%       0%
Angel Pagan             20%       5%       4%       0%      20%       0%       1%      12%
Dan Murphy              19%       6%       6%       0%       1%       0%       2%       0%
Scott Hairston           1%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Josh Thole              13%      11%       0%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Nick Evans               1%       0%       2%       7%       3%       2%       0%       0%
Lucas Duda               1%       3%       2%       7%       0%       1%       1%       0%
Fernando Tatis           6%       4%       3%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Val Pascucci             0%       3%       2%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%
Kirk Nieuwenhuis         1%       0%       3%      29%      11%       5%       1%       2%
Frank Catalanotto       15%       9%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Justin Turner            9%       2%       1%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Fernando Martinez        2%       1%       4%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Mike Hessman             0%       0%       3%       0%       1%       2%       0%       0%
Ronny Paulino            6%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Russ Adams               1%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Brad Emaus               0%       1%       0%       2%       1%       1%       0%       1%
Zach Lutz                0%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jason Pridie             3%       0%       1%       0%      16%       0%       0%       4%
Luis Castillo            8%      15%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       3%
Reese Havens             1%       2%       2%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%
Andy Green               1%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Sean Ratliff             0%       0%       1%       5%      11%       4%       0%       0%
Ruben Tejada             1%       1%       0%       2%       1%       0%       0%       2%
Eric Campbell            1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Chin-lung Hu             4%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Dusty Ryan               0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jesus Feliciano         13%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Mike Cervenak            3%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Wilmer Flores            2%       0%       3%      14%       9%       4%       1%       0%
J.R. House               1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brahiam Maldonado        0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Luis Hernandez           2%       0%       0%       0%       5%       0%       0%       0%
Jordany Valdespin        2%       0%       1%       0%       4%       0%       0%       2%
Mike Nickeas             1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jonathan Malo            0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Francisco Rodrigue        55%        91%        96%         0%        87%
Johan Santana             36%        90%        17%        16%        76%
Taylor Buchholz           22%        70%        35%         9%        48%
Bobby Parnell             23%        73%        44%         2%        88%
D. J. Carrasco            25%        81%        10%         2%        84%
R.A. Dickey               13%        59%         2%        28%        70%
Mike Pelfrey               5%        53%         2%         5%        89%
Chris Capuano              7%        46%        26%         8%        49%
Elmer Dessens             21%        50%         2%        19%        67%
Jonathon Niese             3%        41%        15%         1%        68%
Jenrry Mejia               5%        41%         9%         0%        89%
John Maine                 4%        34%        44%         0%        62%
Kelvim Escobar            23%        39%         7%        23%        66%
Manuel Alvarez             4%        36%        12%         2%        51%
Manny Acosta               5%        33%        40%         0%        49%
Chris Young                7%        32%        25%         0%        40%
Ryota Igarashi             3%        23%        40%         0%        63%
Pat Misch                  1%        20%         0%        32%        54%
Pedro Beato                2%        23%         1%         0%        63%
Boof Bonser                5%        32%        26%        12%        67%
Mike O'Connor              3%        21%         4%         7%        54%
Dillon Gee                 0%        14%         7%         5%        18%
Armando Rodriguez          0%         9%         4%         0%        75%
Roy Merritt                0%         8%         2%         0%        50%
Oliver Perez               0%         4%        53%         0%        23%
John Lujan                 0%         6%         3%         0%        59%
Josh Stinson               0%         2%         0%         0%        48%
Tobi Stoner                0%         1%         0%         0%        19%
Adam Pettyjohn             0%         3%         0%         2%        39%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Baltimore Orioles
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
Houston Astros
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers
Minnesota Twins
San Francisco Giants
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers

Dan Szymborski Posted: February 07, 2011 at 06:43 PM | 116 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Sam M. Posted: July 27, 2011 at 04:05 PM (#3886521)
Just wanted to mention that Murphy is at .313/.354/.448 (OPS+ 123)
This year he's looking a lot like the hitter that Sam M once envisioned, and not a peep out of Sam...


Peep!

Here's an interesting thread . . . . One thing to note in looking over that discussion was how much air has come out of offense just since 2008. That year, .850 OPS translated into about a 120 OPS+, whereas Murphy right now has an .802 and a 123.

But I haven't been saying much -- just enjoying it -- because while I think there's some vindication in seeing Murphy show that he is capable of doing what I believed he could do, there's also some wisdom to gain from having not been cautious enough to realize that the road between where he was entering the 2009 season and actually producing like he is now might not be a straight line from Point A to Point B. So I'm not going to just crow.

In any case, it's going to be very interesting how Alderson handles the young, cost-controlled bats he has in Murphy, Ike, and perhaps Duda, because all three of them don't fit well together (at least not as starters) into a team that is going to play any sort of decent defense.
   102. Lassus Posted: July 27, 2011 at 04:32 PM (#3886550)
The only one of those three that has seemed deficient to the eye, defensively, is Duda, so I'm not sure what you mean.
   103. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 27, 2011 at 04:37 PM (#3886557)
The only one of those three that has seemed deficient to the eye, defensively, is Duda, so I'm not sure what you mean.


Only 1 can play 1B

Murphy was worse than Duda in the OF
   104. Sam M. Posted: July 27, 2011 at 04:49 PM (#3886570)
The only one of those three that has seemed deficient to the eye, defensively, is Duda, so I'm not sure what you mean.


Only 1 can play 1B

This.

Once you slot one of them at 1B, where do you make room for the other two in an alignment that doesn't leave you badly exposed? We still don't know if Murphy can be an everyday second baseman. I am convinced that Duda can be a corner outfielder only if he's got an all-star caliber bat to make up for the defense we'll suffer with. Perhaps the least-bad overall alignment (though it would leave NO position as a plus) would put Duda at 1B and Davis in RF or LF, but again -- no plus positions, and it depends on Ike being able to handle a corner OF slot.

The overall team defense is definitely going to be an issue, if you are committed to these three.
   105. Lassus Posted: July 27, 2011 at 05:31 PM (#3886655)
I did brainfart on the three first basemen issue, but I guess I have a hard time identifying the use of Duda to this point to make this a viable debate. I've been busy recently, and have heard he's been kinda hitting; I admit being rather underwhelmed so far.
   106. PreservedFish Posted: July 27, 2011 at 05:35 PM (#3886672)
Ike Davis is an everyday starter at first base. So that position should be sewn up. You don't move him to the outfield to accommodate a semi-prospect like Duda. So just forget about it. Not part of the conversation.

That leaves Duda and Murphy. I agree with Sam on Duda's defense/running: I think Duda has to hit really well in order to be an asset in leftfield. I don't know enough about him as a hitter yet to really say anything. I'm kind of skeptical. Duda really reminds me of Mark Johnson. I think that might be his future, the pinch-hitting or platooning 1B/LF guy that usually gets 250 ABs in a year. Limited use to the Mets if Ike is healthy. But given that Beltran might be leaving the organization soon, might as well stick him in the outfield and see what happens. Perhaps he is a good enough hitter.

Murphy is the only one we really have to debate about. Let's relive something I said in the 2008 thread that Sam linked: "I am worried that Murphy is going to become stuck between positions. As a secondbaseman, a good hitter but an awful fielder. As a leftfielder, a mediocre hitter and fielder." Well, this kind of happened. He might be a better hitter than I predicted, but a worse fielder, at least in the outfield. If Murphy is really an OPS+ 120 guy, he deserves to be starting on some team at one of the corners. If he's really the 110 OPS+, as I suspect, then he is tailor made to be the new Dave Magadan, 300 yearly ABs split between first and third, lots of pinch-hitting. The problem is that the Mets don't need that guy, because they have strong players at those two positions, and one of them's a lefty. Unless Murphy can play second, or be non-atrocious in the outfield, he doesn't really belong anywhere.
   107. Sam M. Posted: July 27, 2011 at 05:53 PM (#3886697)
If Murphy is really an OPS+ 120 guy, he deserves to be starting on some team at one of the corners. If he's really the 110 OPS+, as I suspect, then he is tailor made to be the new Dave Magadan, 300 yearly ABs split between first and third, lots of pinch-hitting. The problem is that the Mets don't need that guy, because they have strong players at those two positions, and one of them's a lefty. Unless Murphy can play second, or be non-atrocious in the outfield, he doesn't really belong anywhere.

There's another possibility: let's say he's a legit 120 OPS+ guy, and he can play second base well enough to fill in capably when needed, while not being good enough to play it every day at a level you're comfortable with. Then you've got a situation where he can be extremely valuable getting 400+ PAs a year filling in some days at 1B, 2B and 3B. It might not be the best thing for his career, but it'd be awesome for the Mets to have a bench player of that versatility and productivity with the bat. He doesn't have to be Brandon Phillips with the glove at 2B if utility duty at the position is all you're asking of him. To me, this is one part of how you build a really outstanding team instead of just a contender: you slot in guys who are too good for the role, instead of guys who are just good enough. If Murphy is too good to be a utility player, then the Mets are one step closer to being great.
   108. PreservedFish Posted: July 27, 2011 at 06:03 PM (#3886716)
Yes. Agreed. I didn't mean that he had to field well enough to be a fulltime starter, but rather that the Mets could feel comfortable with him there for a couple weeks if necessary. Makes him much more useful. Because if Davis/Wright are healthy, he could go days between starts pretty frequently.

Maybe he deserves another shot at the outfield. Last time he was there, I was the first to condemn him as forever useless, and tossed around adjectives like Hundleyesque. But it would really help the team if he could do it. Is that crazy? I kind of forget how bad he was.
   109. Elvis Posted: July 27, 2011 at 06:31 PM (#3886755)
We got to see Murphy a little bit at 2B and he was nowhere near as bad as advertised. We've seen Justin Turner a bit more and nobody seems to talk that he is a poor defensive 2B. Here are some numbers on Turner at 2B:

-4 DRS
-2.9 UZR
-8.7 UZR/150

UZR sees Turner about average in range, and below-average in both errors and turning the double play.

In about half the innings at 2B as Turner, Murphy has the following numbers:

-3 DRS
1.9 UZR
13.4 UZR/150

I'd be shocked if Murphy is as good as UZR thinks in this all too-small sample. But I think the take away is that he's not a given to be awful defensively. He's displayed good range there, which should be no surprise because he showed good range at 1B, too. And he's been just below average turning the double play, which was a big worry.

I don't think Murphy should be relegated to super-sub, 400 PA status. He should be starting at second base, possibly with a defensive caddy to come in and relieve him in the late innings.
   110. PreservedFish Posted: July 27, 2011 at 06:39 PM (#3886763)
Here are some numbers on Turner at 2B:


You might as well throw all of those numbers in the garbage. Quite aside from the still very open question on whether or not defensive stats are reliable, even the inventors of UZR etc agree that the sample of 60 games is nearly meaningless.

My opinion on Murphy at second was - definitely below average. He didn't seem like a disaster. But he also didn't seem like a disaster in the OF in 2008, and we know what happened the next spring. He deserves another shot at it, and I would be thrilled if we could call him "mediocre."

Turner, to my eyes, is kind of whatever. He's not a plus but he's not terrible. Maybe somewhat below average. Dan Uggla or Jeff Kent.
   111. Elvis Posted: July 27, 2011 at 06:46 PM (#3886775)
Murphy has an 89-point lead on Turner in OPS. How much worse does he have to be defensively to negate that? If Turner is average, Murphy would have to be as bad as Dan Uggla to make up that edge.
   112. PreservedFish Posted: July 27, 2011 at 06:59 PM (#3886798)
I'm with you. With Davis injured it's not really an issue right now. But if we had Ike and Wright both healthy, I would be platooning Murphy and Turner probably.
   113. Something Other Posted: August 01, 2011 at 03:04 AM (#3890041)
If Davis and Wright are healthy at the same time, I'd like to see the Mets stick with the guy at 2b that can give them the most bang for the buck in 2012-2014. That's got to be Murphy.
   114. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: August 16, 2011 at 03:02 PM (#3901220)
Just noticed that Duda is at .287/.358/.472 (129) in 205 PAs, he also hit .302/.414/.597 in 1567 PAs in AAA* this year (IL, league is at .302/.414/.597) so what does ZiPS say now?

*Career line of .310/.398/.606 in AAA.
In fact 2010-2011:

.286/.411/.503 in AA (197 PAs)
.310/.398/.606 in AAA (455 PAs)
.260/.328/.454 in MLB (297 PAs, 114 OPS+)

pity he's such a lumbering ox in the field.
Speaking of which Mike Carp is now .300/.372/.471 for his MLB career (250 PAs)
Nick Evans has really never got untracked, but we have Zach Lutz (.300/.372/.471 in AA, .308/.388/.514 in AAA, minor league career of .288/.382/.484) and Josh Satin (.317/.410/.508 in AA, .317/.410/.508 in AAA, and .308/.399/.472 for his minor league career)
all are "old" and all are defensively challenged, and my question is this, given that the Mets can generate these guys by the busload, where were these guys (or their equivalents) back in 03/04/05 when 1B was a bottomless pit of suck for the Mets?
   115. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: August 25, 2011 at 01:45 AM (#3908324)
Nick Evans says: .265/.383/.531

He almost certainly still stinks, but still.
   116. PreservedFish Posted: August 25, 2011 at 02:16 AM (#3908369)
I can't believe his debut was 4 years ago. My career has advanced much further than his has.
   117. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: August 27, 2011 at 11:14 PM (#3910539)
Wish I could say the same.
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