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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

2011 ZiPS Projections - New York Yankees

As anybody can see, the Yankees have a championship-caliber offense.  There’s little question about the abilities of any of their starters and if Jesus Montero were a few years younger,

ZiPS would be seized by the Robot Enforcement Authority and deleted as a sex crime offender.

The Yankees will need the bats.  To say the Yankee pitching, especially the starters, is top-heavy is a pretty big understatement.  As top-heavy goes, it’s more “Joba Chamberlain wearing

10-gallon hat filled with gravy riding piggyback on David Samson’s shoulders on a unicycle” type.  If Sabathia is Citizen Kane, the prospective 4th and 5th starters are Meet the Spartans 2:

The Lycians Go to Band Camp developed by your idiot cousin and his troglodytic moonshine-buddies and filmed in pitch black with a video phone from 2006.  Don’t even think about what

happens if Sabathia or Hughes or (!) Burnett go on the DL for any reason.  It’s actually a little worse than the lines below given that Pettitte is retired and neither Banuelos or Betances,

even if relatively competent to pitch in the majors now, shouldn’t be rushed.

The Yankees do have enough firepower that they’ll be in the thick of things, but I think the Yankees, like the Rays, are a clear step behind the Red Sox right now.

Last up:  El Spreadsheet Magnifico

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Alex Rodriguez    R    3B   35   .277 .369 .527 124 459  73 127  23   1  30 103  63  96  10   3  132
Mark Teixeira     B    1B   31   .273 .375 .516 147 560  92 153  35   1  33 107  84 116   1   0  132
Robinson Cano     L    2B   28   .298 .346 .491 156 605  83 180  39   3  24  88  41  71   4   4  117
Jesus Montero     R    C    21   .276 .334 .503 145 539  66 149  34   2  28  87  47 109   0   0  116
Curtis Granderson L    CF   30   .261 .338 .494 148 551  90 144  22  11  28  75  62 126  14   3  115
Nick Swisher      B    RF   30   .258 .356 .485 146 515  80 133  29   2  28  81  75 133   1   2  119
Jorge Posada      B    C    39   .247 .344 .457 106 348  41  86  20   1  17  56  48  96   2   1  109
Brett Gardner     L    LF   27   .260 .355 .367 140 442  76 115  16   8   5  37  63  93  42   8   91
Derek Jeter       R    SS   37   .280 .347 .393 140 582  82 163  24   3  12  58  54  90  17   5   95
Nick Johnson      L    1B   32   .245 .405 .375  57 184  28  45   9   0   5  26  46  45   1   2  108
Andruw Jones      R    DH   34   .221 .320 .438  96 290  40  64  13   1  16  46  41  80   6   2   97
Russell Martin    R    C    28   .253 .358 .361 128 446  64 113  18   0  10  51  68  79  12   5   90
Jorge Vazquez     R    1B   29   .250 .283 .444  77 304  34  76  17   0  14  51  13  90   0   0   88
Brandon Laird     R    3B   23   .250 .297 .424 156 599  69 150  29   3  23  93  37 126   1   2   87
Ronnie Belliard   R    2B   36   .247 .309 .395  88 214  32  52  11   1   7  34  20  49   2   1   86
Justin Maxwell    R    CF   27   .211 .312 .377 121 361  55  76  14   2  14  42  50 141  21   7   81
Eduardo Nunez     R    SS   24   .268 .306 .363 152 570  64 153  26   2   8  52  29  80  21   8   75
Austin Romine     R    C    22   .251 .294 .384 143 565  65 142  31   1  14  70  32 117   6   2   77
Daniel Brewer     R    RF   23   .247 .311 .362 134 506  64 125  28   3   8  63  41 132  19   9   77
Jordan Parraz     R    RF   26   .244 .319 .359 119 443  57 108  23   2   8  49  37  94  10   8   78
Reegie Corona     B    2B   24   .242 .305 .346 141 529  64 128  26   4   7  38  47  96  18   5   71
Francisco CervelliR    C    25   .257 .332 .338  91 269  25  69  12   2   2  29  26  51   1   3   77
David Adams       R    2B   24   .239 .305 .362  89 351  43  84  22   3   5  43  29  83   7   5   75
Kevin Russo       R    3B   26   .252 .309 .327 109 401  45 101  17   2   3  29  29  77  10   5   68
Colin Curtis      L    RF   26   .237 .295 .351 127 459  49 109  24   2   8  43  34  93   4   3   69
Greg Golson       R    CF   25   .236 .277 .348 149 529  56 125  22   5   9  46  28 160  20   7   63
Ramiro Pena       B    3B   25   .241 .287 .309 115 311  35  75  11   2   2  30  20  62   9   3   57
Bradley Suttle    B    3B   25   .218 .275 .338 135 542  51 118  27   4  10  55  43 169   6   2   60
Melky Mesa        R    CF   24   .197 .262 .360 143 547  63 108  21   7  18  62  41 211  19  10   62
Gustavo Molina    R    C    29   .227 .262 .357  61 185  17  42   9   0   5  20   8  37   0   1   61
Chad Moeller      R    C    36   .223 .273 .331  49 139  12  31   9   0   2  13   8  32   0   0   58
Austin Krum       L    CF   25   .216 .290 .295 135 518  67 112  18   4   5  41  50 130  12   7   55
Eric Chavez       L    DH   33   .205 .260 .313  31 112  11  23   6   0   2  13   9  28   0   0   50
Doug Bernier      R    SS   31   .194 .282 .266  82 248  30  48  10   1   2  20  27  77   3   1   46

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Alex Rodriguez                                FR/69
Mark Teixeira                 AV/59
Robinson Cano                         FR/80
Jesus Montero            FR
Curtis Granderson                                                     AV/84
Nick Swisher                                                 AV/106  FR/172  AV/106
Jorge Posada             PO  FR/117
Brett Gardner                                                 EX/38   VG/50
Derek Jeter                                           FR/64
Nick Johnson                 FR/129
Andruw Jones             AV  AV/110                          AV/114  PO/113  AV/114
Russell Martin                               FR/142
Jorge Vazquez                AV/150          PO/111
Brandon Laird                AV/103          FR/118
Ronnie Belliard              AV/137  FR/122  FR/129  PO/118
Justin Maxwell                                               AV/121  AV/121  AV/121
Eduardo Nunez                        AV/116  AV/110  VG/127
Austin Romine            FR
Daniel Brewer                                                VG/102  AV/112   AV/90
Jordan Parraz                                                        PO/144  VG/148
Reegie Corona                                AV/112  AV/117  AV/106
Francisco Cervelli       AV
David Adams                          AV/106  AV/108
Kevin Russo                          AV/110  AV/119  FR/106  AV/120  FR/107
Colin Curtis                                                 VG/110  AV/115   AV/90
Greg Golson                                                  VG/105  VG/140  VG/113
Ramiro Pena                          VG/109  VG/102  VG/115          AV/106
Bradley Suttle               AV/105          FR/110
Melky Mesa                                                   VG/106  AV/134  VG/120
Gustavo Molina           VG
Chad Moeller             FR
Austin Krum                                                  VG/121  AV/109  VG/160
Eric Chavez                  FR/102          FR/102
Doug Bernier                 VG/110   VG/98  VG/106   FR/77

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
CC Sabathia       L      30     3.32    19    8   33   33   230.3  206   85   20   64  210   133
Phil Hughes       R      25     4.08    11    7   26   26   147.7  145   67   18   46  131   108
Andy Pettitte     L      39     4.14     9    6   23   23   139.0  139   64   15   48  106   107
A.J. Burnett      R      34     4.50    12   10   30   30   182.0  184   91   22   74  159    98
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Dellin Betances   R      23     4.61     5    4   16   16    66.3   66   34    8   34   56    96
Sergio Mitre      R      30     4.71     4    4   25   14    91.7  101   48   11   25   52    94
Manuel Banuelos   L      20     4.92     4    4   19   16    75.0   80   41    9   36   57    90
Freddy Garcia     R      36     4.96     4    6   15   15    82.0   90   44   12   23   51    92
Adam Warren       R      23     5.04     7    7   21   21   100.0  118   56   12   35   62    88
David Phelps      R      26     5.15     6    7   23   23   122.3  144   70   16   42   71    86
Hector Noesi      R      24     5.26     6    7   22   20   106.0  121   62   18   28   72    84
Ivan Nova         R      24     5.29     7    8   28   26   149.7  170   88   19   69   88    84
Mark Prior        R      30     5.40     0    1    2    2    10.0   11    6    2    5    7    82
Andrew Brackman   R      25     5.60     9   12   27   26   127.0  155   79   17   51   73    79
Bartolo Colon     R      38     5.63     2    3    8    8    38.3   44   24    6   14   20    79
D.J. Mitchell     R      24     5.86     7   11   26   25   132.0  159   86   17   72   74    75
Steve Garrison    L      26     6.04     2    4   13   10    53.7   65   36   10   22   31    73
Ryan Pope         R      25     6.41     4    8   33   15    98.3  126   70   18   40   54    69

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Mariano Rivera    R      41     3.28     4    1   53    0    49.3   44   18    5   12   45   135
Rafael Soriano    R      31     3.29     3    1   56    0    52.0   42   19    6   16   59   135
David Robertson   R      26     3.49     5    3   60    0    67.0   56   26    6   34   83   127
Joba Chamberlain  R      25     3.71     5    3   77    0    77.7   71   32    8   29   83   119
Pedro Feliciano   L      34     4.07     5    3   82    0    55.3   54   25    5   22   50   109
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Pat Venditte      B      26     4.34     3    2   42    0    56.0   57   27    7   21   44   102
Jonathan AlbaladejR      28     4.36     4    3   61    0    64.0   62   31    8   24   54   102
Damaso Marte      L      36     4.44     2    1   36    0    26.3   24   13    4   12   26   100
Boone Logan       L      26     4.47     3    2   56    0    54.3   54   27    6   24   49    99
Buddy Carlyle     R      33     4.85     4    4   32    8    68.7   73   37   10   23   56    91
Brian N. Anderson R      29     4.99     0    1   39    0    39.7   43   22    5   21   26    89
Warner Madrigal   R      27     5.25     2    4   50    0    58.3   61   34   11   25   42    84
Luis Ayala        R      31     5.26     5    5   48    0    53.0   61   31    7   20   34    84
Daniel Turpen     R      24     5.29     5    6   50    0    66.3   78   39    7   33   40    84
Romulo Sanchez    R      27     5.67     5    8   33   10    81.0   88   51   10   56   56    78
Eric Wordekemper  R      27     5.73     2    3   41    0    54.7   64   36   11   25   34    75
Andy Sisco        L      28     5.88     3    5   48    0    59.7   65   39    8   45   48    75
Robert Fish       L      23     7.27     2    6   37    5    60.7   81   49   14   34   39    61

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Alex Rodriguez       .293  .375  .552  2967 11368  2098  3329   592    36   761  2326  1382  2291   342   138
Derek Jeter          .305  .373  .438  2842 11638  1985  3551   561    71   280  1357  1121  1893   377   112
Robinson Cano        .292  .335  .468  2415  9405  1250  2746   576    51   327  1294   563  1002    53   109
Andruw Jones         .253  .335  .482  2278  7948  1250  2008   403    39   446  1338   933  1809   165   109
Mark Teixeira        .274  .365  .506  2183  8356  1323  2287   526    24   455  1534  1100  1583    22   125
Jorge Posada         .271  .371  .473  2006  6723   974  1820   421    12   305  1169  1018  1629    26   120
Curtis Granderson    .259  .330  .467  1873  7052  1103  1827   299   128   304   863   727  1526   161   107
Nick Swisher         .251  .349  .458  1829  6451   986  1616   366    21   310   957   934  1545    15   111
Russell Martin       .258  .355  .371  1669  5862   825  1513   256     7   130   690   818   913   163    91

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
CC Sabathia        274  155    0    3.65  553  553     3705 3437 1501  351 1120 3170    121
A.J. Burnett       160  151    0    4.27  417  413     2586 2448 1226  279 1097 2307    101
Phil Hughes        143   98    3    4.16  367  325     1888 1820  873  241  602 1681    106

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Alex Rodriguez    3B     64%  25%   8%   3%   1%        Bob Elliott          Ken Boyer      Doug DeCinces
Mark Teixeira     1B     40%  33%  13%  10%   4%      Davey Johnson     Rocky Colavito        Chili Davis
Robinson Cano     2B     56%  18%  12%   9%   5%         Jose Vidro         Jorge Orta       Lou Whitaker
Jesus Montero     C      53%  30%  11%   5%   1%       Mike Sweeney     Ivan Rodriguez         Todd Zeile
Curtis Granderson CF     49%  22%  18%   8%   2%     Andy Van Slyke       Steve Finley     Brady Anderson
Nick Swisher      RF     23%  31%  20%  15%  11%      Ken Henderson      Austin Kearns       Paul O’Neill
Jorge Posada      C      36%  31%  18%  11%   3%      Jason Varitek         Alan Ashby       Rick Dempsey
Brett Gardner     LF      9%  19%  19%  25%  29%           Sam Fuld     Terrmel Sledge       Stu Pederson
Derek Jeter       SS     21%  23%  30%  18%   8%      Randy Velarde       Luke Appling    Dave Concepcion
Nick Johnson      1B      4%  14%  18%  35%  29%        Randy Ready       Norm Siebern     Randy Milligan
Andruw Jones      DH      3%   8%  11%  31%  46%     Ty Van Burkleo           Dave May       Reed Secrist
Russell Martin    C      10%  25%  26%  25%  14%           Al Lopez    George Williams       Jim Sundberg
Jorge Vazquez     1B      0%   2%   5%  23%  69%       Jason Dubois         Randy Ruiz          Juan Diaz
Brandon Laird     3B      1%   7%  12%  22%  58%      Casey Webster      David Winfree     Jamie D’Antona
Ronnie Belliard   2B     10%  10%  14%  24%  42%      Marty McManus         Greg Gagne      Jerry Royster
Justin Maxwell    CF      2%   4%  14%  29%  51%       Steve Howard      Brandon Boggs        Mike Murphy
Eduardo Nunez     SS      2%   7%  18%  30%  43%       Pedro Chavez       Julio Franco        Carlos Rios
Austin Romine     C       3%   7%  12%  26%  52%    Mike Fitzgerald       Rey Palacios        Randy Knorr
Daniel Brewer     RF      0%   1%   2%   8%  88%    Marvin Garrison      Vernon Thomas         Wil Culmer
Jordan Parraz     RF      0%   1%   3%   9%  87%       Dave Hollins      Luis Montanez        Alvin Moore
Reegie Corona     2B      3%   3%   5%  13%  77%        Sean Kazmar    Jason Bourgeois       Steve Benson
Francisco CervelliC       0%   2%   7%  25%  65%           Al Lopez   Steven Clevenger     Larry Gonzales
David Adams       2B      1%   2%   4%  14%  79%        Luke Hughes       Felix Molina        Omar Moraga
Kevin Russo       3B      0%   0%   1%   5%  93%          Juan Melo      Rene Gonzales        Kelly Paris
Colin Curtis      RF      0%   0%   1%   2%  98%      Nate Peterson       Erold Andrus    Randy Jorgensen
Greg Golson       CF      1%   1%   2%   8%  89%        Xavier Paul      Roberto Kelly       Tommy Murphy
Ramiro Pena       3B      0%   0%   1%   2%  98%        Raul Barron   Curtis Wilkerson        Ron Marigny
Bradley Suttle    3B      0%   0%   1%   4%  95%       Mike Turgeon       Brian Barden       Sean Mcnally
Melky Mesa        CF      0%   1%   2%   6%  91%     Darren Blakely       Jeremy Owens    Gerald Williams
Gustavo Molina    C       1%   2%   2%   7%  87%     Charlie Greene      Scott Servais       Pedro Grifol
Chad Moeller      C       0%   1%   1%   5%  93%         Joe Oliver        Raul Chavez          Tony Pena
Austin Krum       CF      0%   0%   1%   1%  98% Tyrone Pendergrass      Kennard Jones Kardam of Bulgaria
Eric Chavez       DH      0%   0%   0%   1%  99%        Dann Howitt   Darrell Whitmore        Orsino Hill
Doug Bernier      SS      0%   0%   1%   2%  97%          Ray Oyler         Gary Green     Brandon Chaves

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Mariano Rivera    RP      67%    28%     5%     Trevor Hoffman         Doug Jones       Hoyt Wilhelm
Rafael Soriano    RP      73%    24%     3%          Tom Henke     Trevor Hoffman          Mel Rojas
CC Sabathia       SP      88%     6%     6%       Sandy Koufax         Ron Guidry      Teddy Higuera
David Robertson   RP      57%    38%     5%       Mark Littell    Steve Bedrosian         Mark Clear
Joba Chamberlain  RP      37%    51%    12%   Jonathan Broxton           Robb Nen       Ron Robinson
Pedro Feliciano   RP      26%    52%    23%       Gary Lavelle        Dennis Cook      Chuck McElroy
Phil Hughes       SP      40%    45%    10%     Scott Bankhead      Frank Pastore        Danny Haren
Andy Pettitte     SP      39%    48%    13%          Al Leiter      Jerry Koosman       Chuck Finley
Pat Venditte      RP      20%    51%    30%   Randy St. Claire     Todd Frohwirth   George Jorgensen
Jonathan AlbaladejRP      19%    54%    27%      Luis Vizcaino         Dan Miceli      Jerrod Riggan
Damaso Marte      RP      23%    33%    44%     Tippy Martinez        Ron Villone      Trever Miller
Boone Logan       RP      17%    51%    32%          Jim Poole       Yorkis Perez          Tim Young
A.J. Burnett      SP      22%    58%    20%         Dave Burba     Rick Sutcliffe   Todd Stottlemyre
Dellin Betances   SP      24%    49%    27%         Jeff Juden      Mike Bielecki      Jason Schmidt
Sergio Mitre      SP      28%    42%    30%      Mickey Weston       John Doherty         A.J. Sager
Buddy Carlyle     RP       6%    38%    56%      Rusty Meacham    Todd Van Poppel        Mark Leiter
Manuel Banuelos   SP      13%    41%    46%      Bill Scherrer   Brandon Claussen        Manny Parra
Freddy Garcia     SP      17%    44%    39%          Paul Byrd     Shane Reynolds        Gil Heredia
Brian N. Anderson RP       8%    32%    60%         Tony Fiore      Mike Bumstead          Matt Ryan
Adam Warren       SP       8%    48%    44%       Sergio Mitre     Ramiro Mendoza          Josh Fogg
David Phelps      SP       4%    42%    54%      Brian Moehler  Michael Macdonald   Wally Whitehurst
Warner Madrigal   RP       4%    30%    65%      Jeff Plympton         Paul Boris         Jack Hardy
Luis Ayala        RP       3%    27%    70%         Don Gordon      Todd Williams         Chuck Crim
Hector Noesi      SP       4%    38%    58%        Geoff Geary       Keith Foulke        Bob Wolcott
Daniel Turpen     RP       2%    22%    76%      Rosman Garcia     Jeremy Blevins         Dave Smith
Ivan Nova         SP       3%    40%    57%           Ed Wojna     John Johnstone          Jay North
Mark Prior        SP      30%    17%    52%      Jeff Bittiger         Tony Armas         Eric Junge
Andrew Brackman   SP       1%    23%    76%     Darrell Rasner       Marcus Jones         Joe Housey
Bartolo Colon     SP      12%    22%    66%          Bob Welch    Dennis Springer        Tim Belcher
Romulo Sanchez    RP       0%     9%    91%        Steve Green       Jake Robbins    Evan Englebrook
Eric Wordekemper  RP       0%     6%    93%     Steve Narleski        Steven Rowe         Alan Benes
D.J. Mitchell     SP       0%    13%    87%        Jake Joseph      Jeff Fulchino     Clint Sodowsky
Andy Sisco        RP       0%     8%    92%       Bobby Sprowl     Matt Whisenant         Bill White
Steve Garrison    SP       2%    16%    82%     Heath Phillips        Buddy Groom       Larry Casian
Ryan Pope         SP       0%     2%    98%      Matt Childers       Brandon Reed     Dicky Gonzalez
Robert Fish       RP       0%     0%   100%       Renay Bryand         Nick Felix        Juan Cedeno

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Alex Rodriguez          19%      40%      64%       0%       0%      49%      33%       2%
Mark Teixeira           14%      49%      62%      11%       0%      64%      33%       0%
Robinson Cano           46%      12%      41%      32%       4%      28%      11%       0%
Jesus Montero           16%       7%      48%      10%       2%      38%      11%       0%
Curtis Granderson        6%       9%      41%       0%      54%      40%      11%       2%
Nick Swisher             6%      24%      35%       2%       1%      37%      13%       0%
Jorge Posada             4%      16%      21%       0%       0%       3%       8%       0%
Brett Gardner            6%      24%       1%       0%      30%       0%       0%      87%
Derek Jeter             20%      15%       4%       0%       2%       4%       3%       7%
Nick Johnson             5%      76%       1%       0%       0%       0%       4%       0%
Andruw Jones             1%       4%      10%       0%       0%       1%       2%       0%
Russell Martin           4%      25%       2%       0%       0%       1%       1%       4%
Jorge Vazquez            3%       0%      10%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brandon Laird            1%       0%       5%       2%       3%      18%       0%       0%
Ronnie Belliard          6%       3%       3%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Justin Maxwell           0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%      10%
Eduardo Nunez            8%       0%       1%       1%       1%       1%       0%      13%
Austin Romine            2%       0%       2%       5%       0%       3%       1%       0%
Daniel Brewer            1%       1%       1%       2%       2%       0%       0%       7%
Jordan Parraz            1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       2%
Reegie Corona            1%       1%       1%       1%       4%       0%       0%       9%
Francisco Cervelli       6%       9%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
David Adams              1%       1%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       1%
Kevin Russo              3%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Colin Curtis             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Greg Golson              0%       0%       1%       0%       7%       1%       0%       6%
Ramiro Pena              2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Bradley Suttle           0%       0%       0%       1%       2%       1%       0%       0%
Melky Mesa               0%       0%       1%       0%      17%       5%       0%       8%
Gustavo Molina           2%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Chad Moeller             2%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Austin Krum              0%       0%       0%       0%       5%       0%       0%       0%
Eric Chavez              1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Doug Bernier             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Mariano Rivera            59%        93%        56%        51%        78%
Rafael Soriano            73%        96%        96%        16%        80%
CC Sabathia               62%        94%        59%        13%        84%
David Robertson           49%        89%        98%         0%        71%
Joba Chamberlain          35%        83%        92%         2%        71%
Pedro Feliciano           26%        67%        55%         2%        69%
Phil Hughes               16%        72%        45%         6%        41%
Andy Pettitte             11%        64%        10%         2%        56%
Pat Venditte              14%        52%        16%         5%        52%
Jonathan Albaladej        14%        56%        32%         2%        42%
Damaso Marte              23%        52%        65%         4%        52%
Boone Logan               12%        49%        50%         1%        54%
A.J. Burnett               4%        45%        42%         0%        42%
Dellin Betances            8%        42%        33%         0%        47%
Sergio Mitre               9%        44%         1%        25%        50%
Buddy Carlyle              4%        38%        23%         7%        32%
Manuel Banuelos            3%        31%        10%         0%        49%
Freddy Garcia              5%        32%         2%        16%        32%
Brian N. Anderson          8%        31%         3%         0%        52%
Adam Warren                1%        22%         1%         2%        47%
David Phelps               0%        15%         0%         2%        42%
Warner Madrigal            3%        28%         4%         1%        17%
Luis Ayala                 3%        24%         1%         4%        48%
Hector Noesi               0%        14%         1%        26%        10%
Daniel Turpen              1%        15%         1%         0%        66%
Ivan Nova                  0%        12%         0%         0%        43%
Mark Prior                16%        48%        15%        16%        54%
Andrew Brackman            0%         6%         0%         0%        29%
Bartolo Colon              4%        16%         1%         9%        28%
Romulo Sanchez             0%         7%         3%         0%        44%
Eric Wordekemper           0%         4%         1%         0%        16%
D.J. Mitchell              0%         2%         0%         0%        39%
Andy Sisco                 0%         6%        22%         0%        47%
Steve Garrison             0%         5%         0%         2%        15%
Ryan Pope                  0%         1%         0%         0%         8%
Robert Fish                0%         0%         1%         0%         5%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Baltimore Orioles
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
Houston Astros
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers
Minnesota Twins
San Francisco Giants
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Chicago Cubs
Boston Red Sox

Dan Szymborski Posted: February 22, 2011 at 05:48 PM | 92 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. The District Attorney Posted: February 22, 2011 at 05:55 PM (#3755819)
Montero: Whoa!

Venditte: Cool!

Nova: Ouch!
   2. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: February 22, 2011 at 06:14 PM (#3755847)
So Montero's starting the season in AAA, right?
   3. Randy Jones Posted: February 22, 2011 at 06:14 PM (#3755848)
So, am I safe in assuming that ZiPS is unaware that Rivera is a robot? Cause I will take the over on a 135 ERA+
   4. GotowarMissAgnes Posted: February 22, 2011 at 06:19 PM (#3755855)
ZiPS knows he's a robot, but it also knows the seals on those vacuum tubes eventually crack after 40 years.
   5. Famous Original Joe C Posted: February 22, 2011 at 06:20 PM (#3755858)
Interesting projected career HR total for A-Rod.
   6. Accent Shallow Posted: February 22, 2011 at 06:27 PM (#3755865)
After seeing the yearly projection, my first thought was "Wow, ZiPS hates Robbie Cano", but then it projects him to finish his career with 2700 hits? So maybe not. Still, seems like he should project better than .298/.346/.491 if his last two years are .320/.366/.527 and he's entering his age 28 season.
   7. John DiFool2 Posted: February 22, 2011 at 06:29 PM (#3755869)
Indeed. "Hey Barry, you can keep the record, as if I get stuck with it, it will keep me out of the Hall."
   8. Stevis Posted: February 22, 2011 at 06:29 PM (#3755870)
Pat Venditte B


So awesome.
   9. BobbyS Posted: February 22, 2011 at 06:41 PM (#3755884)
So, am I safe in assuming that ZiPS is unaware that Rivera is a robot? Cause I will take the over on a 135 ERA+


ZiPS knows he's a robot, but it also knows the seals on those vacuum tubes eventually crack after 40 years.


Age didn't seem to hurt Wagner, Thome or Saito as much...which is even more interesting.

Saito and Rivera are both entering their 41 year old seasons..

____ 2008 2009 2010 ZiPs
Saito.. 169 194 139 131
Rivera 319 262 238 135

So even after having three straight better seasons, and a much longer career in the MLB with success,than Saito, Mariano drops off 103 points (43%) from 2010, and Saito only drops 8 points (~6%).

Just seems really odd, and I'm curious if there is a specific reason, or something that sets the two situations apart?
   10. CraigK Posted: February 22, 2011 at 06:42 PM (#3755886)
Pat Venditte B



So awesome.


Yeah, how the hell does ZiPS come up with comparables for a two-handed pitcher?
   11. Forsch 10 From Navarone (Dayn) Posted: February 22, 2011 at 06:48 PM (#3755891)
So you're saying Bartolo Colon isn't the answer?
   12. QuixoticQuasiQuandary Posted: February 22, 2011 at 06:49 PM (#3755892)
Will El Speadsheet Magnifico include some of the AAAA guys left off these initial postings? I have a man crush on Wes Timmons and have been waiting until you completed the teams before posting this question. The Braves were posted a long time ago.
"
Does DMB allow for switchy pitchers? "So awesome" is almost an understatement.
   13. CraigK Posted: February 22, 2011 at 06:49 PM (#3755893)
Mark Prior projected for ten innings. Awesome.
   14. The Yankee Clapper Posted: February 22, 2011 at 06:51 PM (#3755897)
Jeter to pass Tris Speaker and trail only Cobb for career hits by an American League player. Pretty good career.
   15. STEAGLES is all out of bubblegum Posted: February 22, 2011 at 06:53 PM (#3755898)
can't wait for the spreadsheet.

any chance there's gonna be a separate sheet with defensive ratings?
   16. Famous Original Joe C Posted: February 22, 2011 at 06:57 PM (#3755904)

Yeah, how the hell does ZiPS come up with comparables for a two-handed pitcher?


Greg Harris?
   17. BobbyS Posted: February 22, 2011 at 06:58 PM (#3755905)
So you're saying Bartolo Colon isn't the answer?


Nope, he's not., 42 is...and he's not allowed to at number (except for one day a year?), for multiple reasons!
   18. Famous Original Joe C Posted: February 22, 2011 at 07:00 PM (#3755908)
So even after having three straight better seasons, and a much longer career in the MLB with success,than Saito, Mariano drops off 103 points (43%) from 2010, and Saito only drops 8 points (~6%).

Check out their strikeout rates, for one thing. Saito's FIP (2.58) was also lower than Rivera's (2.75) last year, despite the vast difference in their ERA+ numbers.
   19. J. Bowman, upon reflection, does hate pants Posted: February 22, 2011 at 07:04 PM (#3755910)
Yeah, how the hell does ZiPS come up with comparables for a two-handed pitcher?


I'm reasonably certain that those names are made up. "Randy St. Claire" is a porn name if I ever saw one.
   20. J. Bowman, upon reflection, does hate pants Posted: February 22, 2011 at 07:04 PM (#3755911)
Edit: Duplicate comment.
   21. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: February 22, 2011 at 07:10 PM (#3755918)
That Eric Chavez projection makes the baby Jesus cry.
   22. BourbonSamurai Is a Lazy Nogoodnik Posted: February 22, 2011 at 07:12 PM (#3755922)
I see ZiPS is very bullish on Mark Prior. Ten whole innings! A banner year!

EDIT: Ah, coke to craig.
   23. Darnell McDonald had a farm Posted: February 22, 2011 at 07:13 PM (#3755925)
ZiPS has an interesting take on Andruw Jones's ability to play catcher. Can't be worse than Posada
   24. BobbyS Posted: February 22, 2011 at 07:16 PM (#3755928)
Check out their strikeout rates, for one thing. Saito's FIP (2.58) was also lower than Rivera's (2.75) last year, despite the vast difference in their ERA+ numbers.


Oh, I understand that. But then what about BB rates? Or the fat 4.25 FIP Saito put up in 2009(something Mo hasn't come within 1.30 of since 2000)?

I'm not saying Mo should only see a 6% drop from last year and get a 224 ERA+ or that Saito should see the 43% drop (79ERA+! lol), it just seems strikingly odd how the two projections ended up.
   25. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 22, 2011 at 07:28 PM (#3755941)
So even after having three straight better seasons, and a much longer career in the MLB with success,than Saito, Mariano drops off 103 points (43%) from 2010, and Saito only drops 8 points (~6%).


ERA+ doesn't quite work like that - the higher you go up, the more a run changes ERA+. So he's not really losing 43% of anything.

Also, in Rivera's case, ZiPS is extremely worried, in light of his age, of his suddenly losing a 1/3 of his strikeout rate, and thinks that his HR/FB rate will go back up.
   26. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 22, 2011 at 07:29 PM (#3755943)
Oops, that is his OF arm rating, not his C arm rating! I occasionally put stuff in the wrong column (A-Rod's 3B rating was in SS column, too)
   27. TomH Posted: February 22, 2011 at 07:33 PM (#3755949)
Zips career projections for ARod show his totals will rank among alltime leaders in:

HR
Bonds 762
A Rod 761
Aaron 755

RBI
A Rod 2326
Aaron 2297
Ruth . 2213
Anson 2075 (AA 1871-75 included)

Runs
2098, 7th, behind Mays

Total Bases
Aaron 6856
A Rod 6276
Musial 6134

slg%
at .552, he would be about 25th, between Aaron and Kiner

(edit: Pujols' ZiPS projections all fall short of top 3 leaderboard.)
   28. BobbyS Posted: February 22, 2011 at 07:33 PM (#3755950)
Also, in Rivera's case, ZiPS is extremely worried, in light of his age, of his suddenly losing a 1/3 of his strikeout rate, and thinks that his HR/FB rate will go back up.


Why didn't ZiPs care about Saito's nearly 30% drop in K rate from 2008 to 2009, with a balloon in BB/9? Is there a vast difference from age 40 to 41 in the system?

EDIT/ADDITION: And is it just age that makes ZiPs think his HR/9 jumps back up to a rate that he was never even close before 2009?
   29. Cowboy Popup Posted: February 22, 2011 at 07:45 PM (#3755966)
I would guess that 2008 is still keeping Swisher and Cano's projections down. I feel pretty good about them beating their projections, since I am convinced those years really don't reflect their ability at all.

I would happily take that from Gardner.

Ivan Nova has a terrible statistical record, but I'm wondering if his uptick in velocity last year will stick long enough to let him beat that projection. I suppose we will see. I really hope a decent starter hits the market by June or so.
   30. jyjjy Posted: February 22, 2011 at 08:00 PM (#3755981)
Rivera's ERA has averaged .56 runs under his FIP for his career. It's .71 runs below his FIP over the last 8 seasons and .93 over the last 3 seasons. Does ZIPs take this kind of thing into account?
   31. BobbyS Posted: February 22, 2011 at 08:03 PM (#3755984)
Actually, was just talking to somebody about it, and it was mentioned that there really is no fair comps for Mo at this point...is that part of the reason that his projection (and last year's) are so out of line with his last 2 or 3 seasons (in terms of ERA+)? Is that something the system should/could recognize?

Just mostly trying to get an understanding of it. The projection is actually right about where I expected it to be (given last years and seeing the projections roll out over the years), but I just don't see the real reason why...even with adjustments for k/9 and HR/FB, both of which he (and other pitchers) have put up big seasons in spite of such declines. Product of a curious mind as to how it all works, sorry for keeping on about it!
   32. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: February 22, 2011 at 08:03 PM (#3755985)
Is Gustavo related to the rest of the catching Molinas?
   33. Cowboy Popup Posted: February 22, 2011 at 08:03 PM (#3755986)
Man, ZiPS gives Montero a 38% chance at 30 HRs and an 11% chance at a 140 OPS+. I hope they only got Martin to keep Montero down past the super-2 deadline, I can't wait to see him play.

Oh, and thank you for another year of ZiPS Dan!
   34. NJ in DC Posted: February 22, 2011 at 08:05 PM (#3755992)
Over on Nova, Cano and Hughes.

EDIT: The Montero projection is beautiful.

By the way, I'm really excited to finally be able to play a season as the Yankees in MLB Show without a guarantee of breaking the all time wins record.
   35. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 22, 2011 at 08:05 PM (#3755993)
Why didn't ZiPs care about Saito's nearly 30% drop in K rate from 2008 to 2009, with a balloon in BB/9? Is there a vast difference from age 40 to 41 in the system?

In that case, when you take into account league level of offense, AL vs. NL, and park change, Saito's decline was only about 19% and it was a decline into a less scary area (a smaller drop to a point nearly 2 K/9 higher).

And again, you're overestimating the amount of differentiation that ERA+ brings to the table. 3 fewer runs an entire year for Rivera moves him from 135 to 162.

And, in any case, ZiPS did project a Saito dropoff for 2010 - a dropoff to 139 from his career at-that-point 218. Incidentally, his 2010 ERA+ ended up at...139.
   36. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 22, 2011 at 08:09 PM (#3755998)
In addition, I'm disappointed that you guys didn't find the two cookies, one easy, one more difficult.
   37. Cowboy Popup Posted: February 22, 2011 at 08:11 PM (#3756001)
Over on Nova, Cano and Hughes.

Agreed on Hughes. I think getting stretched out last year will let him keep missing bats after the All-Star break.

Do you think Nova is going to be useful or just better than that projection? I didn't get to see him much but I followed all of his starts on Gameday and while the velocity is pretty cool, I am not sure what else should give me any hope for him.
   38. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: February 22, 2011 at 08:11 PM (#3756002)
I'll take the under on Nick Johnson's playing time out of habit.
   39. Walt Davis Posted: February 22, 2011 at 08:13 PM (#3756003)
Were I the Yankees braintrust looking at those projections, I would have to be thoroughly convinced Joba can't handle a starting role to keep him in the pen. Mitre as #4 starter? Yikes.

While it's not as ridiculous as I first thought, Davey Johnson as the top comp for Teixeira is a bit weird.
   40. Cowboy Popup Posted: February 22, 2011 at 08:14 PM (#3756006)
None of the upper level Yankee hitting prospects walk much do they? I expect Montero to walk when he's actually challenged, but the other guys don't look to add much value walking. Although Romine's walk rate shot up last year, so maybe he'll take another step forward next year. I guess part of that is that they generally are up the middle players and batting average and some pop is enough to get by as hitters at those positions.
   41. NJ in DC Posted: February 22, 2011 at 08:19 PM (#3756013)
Do you think Nova is going to be useful or just better than that projection? I didn't get to see him much but I followed all of his starts on Gameday and while the velocity is pretty cool, I am not sure what else should give me any hope for him.

Definitely better than the projection and probably useful (like..90 ERA+ useful). The fastball is pretty good and the other stuff showed flashes enough. Thinking a homeless man's Wang. (The good Wang not the broken Wang)
   42. monkhenry Posted: February 22, 2011 at 08:21 PM (#3756014)
I think I remember reading that you use last three years of defensive stats to come up with a defense rating for a player; hasn't Cano had pretty good metrics in two of the last three years ? Also, I think Bill James Fielding Bible rates Cano highly and DMB itself rates Cano EX for the year 2010; what determined the Fr rating that you give Cano ?
   43. Cowboy Popup Posted: February 22, 2011 at 08:23 PM (#3756019)
I just noticed, Granderson's projection is higher than his OPS+ over the last two years, is that in part because he has Steve Finley on his comp list?

Edit: Looking at it, his other two top comps Anderson and Van Slyke had post 30 peaks too. Is that a big part of his project rebound?
   44. Pingu Posted: February 22, 2011 at 08:28 PM (#3756023)
Is Gustavo related to the rest of the catching Molinas?


no relation.
   45. BobbyS Posted: February 22, 2011 at 08:31 PM (#3756031)
And, in any case, ZiPS did project a Saito dropoff for 2010 - a dropoff to 139 from his career at-that-point 218. Incidentally, his 2010 ERA+ ended up at...139.


Ah, when i looked it up, i just saw the 161 he was projected at with the Braves, forgot he was on the Sox sheet first.
   46. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 22, 2011 at 08:36 PM (#3756035)
I just noticed, Granderson's projection is higher than his OPS+ over the last two years, is that in part because he has Steve Finley on his comp list?

Edit: Looking at it, his other two top comps Anderson and Van Slyke had post 30 peaks too. Is that a big part of his project rebound?


Individual comps have too small an influence to do that - mostly, ZiPS think that Granderson's BABIP is too low last two years given his speed and other stats.
   47. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 22, 2011 at 08:38 PM (#3756038)
Ah, when i looked it up, i just saw the 161 he was projected at with the Braves, forgot he was on the Sox sheet first.

Yeah, small amount of innings + good pitcher + change of league can really make that ERA+ swing.

The thing to remember about pitchers, especially older ones, is that there's always a lot of downside risk and even if they don't succumb in a particular case, it doesn't mean that it was wrong to take risk into account in advance. That's a basic lesson, one that even experienced investors forget (see mortgage-backed securities).
   48. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: February 22, 2011 at 08:39 PM (#3756040)
Dan, have you ever made a post on the Day in the Life of Making a ZiPS forecast? The whole riggamaroll of going from whatever raw data you have to a completed team projection? That would be an interesting read.
   49. Cowboy Popup Posted: February 22, 2011 at 08:45 PM (#3756045)
Individual comps have too small an influence to do that - mostly, ZiPS think that Granderson's BABIP is too low last two years given his speed and other stats.

Cool, thanks!
   50. Saberseams Posted: February 22, 2011 at 08:46 PM (#3756046)
I was looking forward to seeing a Tim Norton projection. If he can do anything like he did in A/AA/AAA last year, I'd think he could help the Yankees pen.
   51. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 22, 2011 at 08:46 PM (#3756049)
I think I remember reading that you use last three years of defensive stats to come up with a defense rating for a player; hasn't Cano had pretty good metrics in two of the last three years ?

Over the last 3 years, by the advanced measures, I have him a hair below average overall, but he's been above-average at preventing errors. He's right on the cusp of AV, but second baseman lose about a run of range a year and the three year average has him at 26 and he'll be 28.
   52. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 22, 2011 at 08:52 PM (#3756055)
Dan, have you ever made a post on the Day in the Life of Making a ZiPS forecast? The whole riggamaroll of going from whatever raw data you have to a completed team projection? That would be an interesting read.

Not a bad idea, though I'd have to do it in piece-by-piece since I deal with it systematically - for example, everyone's stats are league and team and park-neutralized and combined with league and team and park-neutralized minor league translations before I make a single projection.
   53. Go-Kart Mozart Posted: February 22, 2011 at 09:05 PM (#3756067)
cano shows a real trend in over-performing league average BABIP. his 2008 off-year seems to have been a result of a career low BABIP of .283, which is pretty close to league average. perhaps zips is thinking that if his BABIP comes slightly down to earth (career .322), he will simply put up very good numbers, instead of other-worldly.

the most encouraging thing about cano's 2010 was his walk rate, a career high 1bb/8.2pa.


edit: just looked it up, the league BABIP last year was .295
   54. Bob Evans Posted: February 22, 2011 at 09:47 PM (#3756100)
Predicting a coma for Austin Krum, are we?
   55. NJ in DC Posted: February 22, 2011 at 10:02 PM (#3756117)
Wrong thread.
   56. SG Posted: February 22, 2011 at 10:12 PM (#3756124)
Szym, if El Spreadsheet Magnifico included HBP, SH, SF and GDP that would be sweet.

the most encouraging thing about cano's 2010 was his walk rate, a career high 1bb/8.2pa.


Not sure where you're getting that number. He walked 57 times in 696 PA, a rate of one BB per 10.4 PA. That's misleading, because 14 of those BBs were intentional. His unintentional BB rate was one BB per 15.9 PA.

Of course, he doesn't have to walk all that much to be a very valuable player.
   57. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 22, 2011 at 10:49 PM (#3756155)
Yeah, how the hell does ZiPS come up with comparables for a two-handed pitcher?


Two hands? Just as long as you don't pick Jim Abbott, you're probably OK.
   58. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 22, 2011 at 10:51 PM (#3756158)
Meet the Spartans 2: The Lycians Go to Band Camp developed by your idiot cousin and his troglodytic moonshine-buddies and filmed in pitch black with a video phone from 2006.


Yeah, but at least it's got boobs.
   59. Hugh Jorgan Posted: February 22, 2011 at 11:07 PM (#3756170)
Jorge Posada C 36% 31% 18% 11% 3% Jason Varitek

Red Sox fans laugh in your general direction!

But geez, that Montero projection is downright scary.
   60. Accent Shallow Posted: February 23, 2011 at 01:29 AM (#3756268)
guys didn't find the two cookies, one easy, one more difficult.

You think Pat Venditte needs gender reassignment surgery?
   61. Accent Shallow Posted: February 23, 2011 at 01:46 AM (#3756278)
Jorge Posada C 36% 31% 18% 11% 3% Jason Varitek

Red Sox fans laugh in your general direction!

But geez, that Montero projection is downright scary.


This prompted me to look at their B-ref pages: Posada, and Varitek.

I'm a little confused as to where this comp comes from, since I thought they were offense only: Posada has ~6700 PA at an OPS+ of 123 (.275/.377/.479) Varitek has ~4900 PA at an OPS+ of 99 (.258/.343/.436) Unless the comps include defense/handling a pitching staff, they shouldn't be close. Wouldn't Posada comp better with Bill Freehan (~6900 PA at 112 OPS+) or Lance Parrish (~7800 PA at 106 OPS+)?
   62. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 23, 2011 at 02:42 AM (#3756304)
They aren't career comps - when you're pushing 40, what you did in your 20s is nearly irrelevant. In this particular case, however, the comps aren't that good, so the aging is more generic.
   63. Accent Shallow Posted: February 23, 2011 at 02:59 AM (#3756315)
Thanks for the explanation, Dan.

Now why do you think Pat Venditte needs titties?
   64. UCCF Posted: February 23, 2011 at 08:01 AM (#3756427)
Kardam of Bulgaria?
   65. Jick Posted: February 23, 2011 at 08:58 AM (#3756435)
Ty van Burkleo?
   66. James Newburg is in awe of Cespedes' CORE STRENGTH Posted: February 23, 2011 at 09:52 AM (#3756443)
Dan, are you now being followed by Thomas Ian Nicholas' band on Twitter? He's following me, which makes me wonder if that ###### has a Google Alert or something on "Rowengartner".
   67. Saberseams Posted: February 23, 2011 at 03:20 PM (#3756495)
So Russ Martin is not a catcher any more??
   68. Ken015 Posted: February 23, 2011 at 10:46 PM (#3756904)
deleted... wrong board
   69. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: February 23, 2011 at 10:58 PM (#3756918)
Kardam of Bulgaria?
   70. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 23, 2011 at 11:56 PM (#3756950)
Oops, I'll fix Martin's rating.
   71. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: February 24, 2011 at 03:33 AM (#3757053)
Hey! The death penalty is unconstitutional in non-murder cases!

More on point, the Yankees look like they're going to have an excellent lineup, an excellent bullpen, and a starting rotation that will either be serviceable or one of the worst in the league. CC will be a stud, Hughes could very well be a legitimate stud, AJ Burnett's projected ERA probably has a bimodal peak, and you've got a rookie as the 4th starter which at least is better news than Sergio Mitre as the 5th starter. If Hughes takes a step back and Burnett repeats last year, you're looking at a team that has to tax its bullpen during the regular season and mashes their way into playoff contention. If both Hughes and Burnett step up, you're looking at a team which gets even more dangerous in the playoffs thanks to the shortened rotation.

Also, Jesus Montero's projection makes me want to take him in my keeper league draft even though I've sworn off Damnyankees just so I can watch the games without feeling the slightest abatement in the purity of my haterage.
   72. zenbitz Posted: February 24, 2011 at 11:37 PM (#3757721)
Austin Krum CF 0% 0% 1% 1% 98% Tyrone Pendergrass Kennard Jones Kardam of Bulgaria


I had to look it up, but Krum suceeded Kardam as rule of Bulgaria in 803.
   73. Shoebo Posted: February 26, 2011 at 03:23 PM (#3758659)
I think Dan just had his BP/Matt Wieters moment when it comes to Montero. ZIPS is projecting the highest HR total for a catcher age 21 or younger in the history of the game. And the 116 OPS+ has been bested by a 21 or younger catcher 3 times in history,....twice by Johnny Bench and once by some guy named Frank Snyder.

Rk           Player OPS+  PA Year Age  Tm HR   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
1      Johnny Bench  129 592 1969  21 CIN 26 .293 .353 .487 .840
2      Frank Snyder  124 522 1915  21 STL  2 .298 .353 .387 .740
3      Johnny Bench  116 607 1968  20 CIN 15 .275 .311 .433 .743
4       Ted Simmons  114 563 1971  21 STL  7 .304 .347 .424 .771
5     Butch Wynegar  109 622 1976  20 MIN 10 .260 .356 .363 .719
6    Ivan Rodriguez   98 519 1993  21 TEX 10 .273 .315 .412 .727
7     Butch Wynegar   96 617 1977  21 MIN 10 .261 .344 .370 .715
8     Frankie Hayes   80 555 1936  21 PHA 10 .271 .335 .388 .723 
   74. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 26, 2011 at 03:48 PM (#3758668)
ZIPS is projecting the highest HR total for a catcher age 21 or younger in the history of the game.
ZiPS is not a playing time predictor.
I think Dan just had his BP/Matt Wieters moment when it comes to Montero.
In 2009, PECOTA projected Wieters to hit 311/399/544. 334/503 is not in the same ballpark, at all.
   75. SG Posted: February 26, 2011 at 04:00 PM (#3758676)
Does position really matter? Especially if the consensus is true that he's probably not going to be a catcher long-term?

Find a list of all 21 year old hitters and see where Montero's projection would rank. I'd imagine it's less remarkable.

Other Montero projections:

Bill James: .285/.348/.519
Oliver: .296/.341/.503
PECOTA: .283/.329/.466

If ZiPS is having its Wieters moment, a few other systems are having it too.

It's also probably worth noting that we have four years of pro baseball data on Montero now with which to project him, compared to the Wieters projection coming after just one season in the pros.
   76. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 26, 2011 at 04:18 PM (#3758680)
How many catchers have an .870 OPS in the International League at age 20? Or a .909 OPS in the Eastern League at age 19?

Montero's already an extremely unusual player. Unusual players do unusual things - players hitting 600 home runs are extremely rare, but that doesn't make Jim Thome's run at 600 an extreme longshot.

None of the projection systems are projecting some random duff A-ball catcher to have a 116 OPS+, but a guy who's already played nearly that well.
   77. Shoebo Posted: February 27, 2011 at 01:21 AM (#3758943)
ZiPS is not a playing time predictor.


MCOA, Before you jump on the defensive for Dan, and make the assumption that I'm some idiot that didn't read Dan's disclaimer on playing time, please keep a couple of things in mind.
1.) I've only been reading here for about 7 years.
2.) All of the guys in the list above GOT 502 or more PA's. And none of them hit 28 HR. The assumption is that IF Montero got that much playing time, he would be projected to have that many homeruns. Therefore, ZIPS is projecting him to have the greatest 21 yr. old HR season in the history of the game, provided he gets a full season's worth of at bats. That is the fact and that is my observation.

Dan wrote:
How many catchers have an .870 OPS in the International League at age 20? Or a .909 OPS in the Eastern League at age 19?

Dan, I don't have access to the information at this time. If you do, can you answer your own question please ? Curious to know.

SG Wrote:
Does position really matter?

Absolutely. The MENTAL demands on a rookie catcher at the major league level are tremendous. The physical demans of the position are well known. Anyway, you pretty much answer your own question when you wrote:

Find a list of all 21 year old hitters and see where Montero's projection would rank. I'd imagine it's less remarkable.


Thats exactly the point. The absence of catchers from the top of the list of greatest seasons by a 21 year old shows clearly that position most definitely matters.


The points made about other projections systems numbers being comparable on a rate basis to what ZIPS is projecting, as well as the difference between this projection and the Wieters projection are well noted. Of course I was just exaggerating and funnin'. The posse sure arrived quick though, didn't it ? ;)
   78. Shoebo Posted: February 27, 2011 at 01:34 AM (#3758947)
One more point:

I would guess that if Montero's defense is a question, then it's all the more likely the rigors of trying to catch at the major league level are going to impact his offense. If he were already a great defensive catcher with an intuitive sense of game calling, polished technical skills, and the athleticism to carry the position, then he'd be able to relax and focus on his hitter enough to reach those projections.

Alot of the guys that DID have good or great offensive seasons at that young an age had excellent defensive reputations. (Maybe simmons being the exception there)
   79. SG Posted: February 27, 2011 at 04:51 PM (#3759089)

I would guess that if Montero's defense is a question, then it's all the more likely the rigors of trying to catch at the major league level are going to impact his offense. If he were already a great defensive catcher with an intuitive sense of game calling, polished technical skills, and the athleticism to carry the position, then he'd be able to relax and focus on his hitter enough to reach those projections.


So you're saying an objective system that uses data and algorithms should incorporate a subjective adjustment based on second and third-hand feedback about his defensive reputation from scouts and the position he plays?
   80. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 27, 2011 at 06:22 PM (#3759125)
Dan, I don't have access to the information at this time. If you do, can you answer your own question please ? Curious to know.

I have 4 catchers offensively in the last 40 years (including minor league translations) at the level of Montero at his age: Bench, Simmons, Torre, and Montero (they show up pretty soon in his comp list).

Sorry, kinda dirty pool to ask a question I already knew the answer to, especially as I'm the most likely person to have the data.
   81. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 27, 2011 at 09:45 PM (#3759219)
Oops, that should be Bench, Simmons, Carter and Montero.
   82. puck Posted: February 27, 2011 at 10:23 PM (#3759243)
Would it have been less controversial to have said ZiPS is having its Jeff Bagwell wins the batting title moment? Thanks to the efforts of Colin Wyers to puzzle out the Weiters projection, we know all sorts of things were odd with that projection, not the least of which is that it didn't seem consistent with the translations used elsewhere by PECOTA.
   83. Jagfire Posted: February 28, 2011 at 01:49 AM (#3759334)
Wonder if there were some setbacks to finishing up the spreadsheet. The ETA went from a couple days to the weekend and now.. the weekend's almost over :(
   84. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 28, 2011 at 02:31 AM (#3759349)
Spreadsheet will be posted tomorrow. Still have a few things on it to finish up.
   85. Shoebo Posted: February 28, 2011 at 01:15 PM (#3759475)

So you're saying an objective system that uses data and algorithms should incorporate a subjective adjustment based on second and third-hand feedback about his defensive reputation from scouts and the position he plays?


SG, you are pretty damn smart guy. And I've admired your work and posts for years. Of course the same goes for Dan. But how you got the above statement out of what I wrote is truly baffling. I didn't say anything of the kind, and I don't know why you interpret what I said to be what your wrote. It's so far off I almost don't even know how to defend it. But you knew I'd try. ;)

I mean are YOU saying that front office executives making decisions should abandon all subjective thought and rely solely on projection(s) systems to make their decisions ? I mean, I know you are not saying that, or think that, but if I were to accuse you of saying that, it would be on the same level of strawman.

Anyway, I was guessing at and positing a possible theory that catchers that are not elite defensively very early in their careers may take a little while longer to adjust in the majors and it could affect their hitting. I think it's a pretty plausible theory and the history of the game might suggest some validity to the thought. But clearly I didn't say the projection system should incorporate subjective thought.


Projections are an essential and indespensible part of the player evaluation process. But they are just that. Part of the process. Not the entire process. The fact Montero projects as well as he does is obviously due to his impressive record at such a young age. Yet the fact also exists that very few catchers that age have approached that level of performance in the entire history of the game.

Are you suggesting that the Yankees should look at a projection like this and treat it with the same reliability as the Teixera or A-Rod projection? Should they construct their team and lineup as if this projection had the same reliability ? I certainly wouldn't suggest that. I'd take anything over a 100 OPS+ as a major bonus.
Because no matter how good or great Montero has been so far, (And Dan kindly fills in the blank in his post just above), it's a longshot for him to meet that projection because he's a catcher. Reliability score here is low. Thats what I think anyway. Of course I could be wrong.

BTW, Nick Swisher, who has hit 29 HR each of the last two seasons and also has a 35 HR season on his resume has lower probability of hitting 30 HR than Montero..........just saying.
   86. NJ in DC Posted: February 28, 2011 at 02:49 PM (#3759493)
Are you suggesting that the Yankees should look at a projection like this and treat it with the same reliability as the Teixera or A-Rod projection?

I think a more appropriate comparison would be to Minor Leaguer X of comparable mL service time. I think most of what you're saying has more to do with the error bars around projecting minor league performance than anything else. Of course, if there is some evidence that projection systems routinely miss on C moreso than the other positions when it comes to guys yet to make their debut it would be useful.
   87. SG Posted: February 28, 2011 at 03:11 PM (#3759507)
Of course the same goes for Dan. But how you got the above statement out of what I wrote is truly baffling. I didn't say anything of the kind, and I don't know why you interpret what I said to be what your wrote. It's so far off I almost don't even know how to defend it. But you knew I'd try. ;)


I guess I took the tone of your post as a critique that what ZiPS was spitting out was unrealistic, rather than you positing that there are reasons to be skeptical of such a bullish projection. Since it was the latter, I apologize.

Projections are an essential and indespensible part of the player evaluation process. But they are just that. Part of the process. Not the entire process.


Agreed. And they are less useful for prospects than they are for established players.

Anyway, I was guessing at and positing a possible theory that catchers that are not elite defensively very early in their careers may take a little while longer to adjust in the majors and it could affect their hitting. I think it's a pretty plausible theory and the history of the game might suggest some validity to the thought. But clearly I didn't say the projection system should incorporate subjective thought.


I think that makes some intuitive sense, and I believe research has shown catchers peak later than other players so that may be evidence that there's something to it.

Because no matter how good or great Montero has been so far, (And Dan kindly fills in the blank in his post just above), it's a longshot for him to meet that projection because he's a catcher. Reliability score here is low. Thats what I think anyway. Of course I could be wrong.


Not sure I agree about the longshot notion since his projection is based on what he's actually done so far, but I do agree the reliability for any projection of a young and unusual player is very low. We don't have to go back too far to look at all the top prospects who never achieved what we thought they would. I have no idea if this is a bigger issue for catchers or not. It seems that teams move catching prospects who can hit off the position as soon as they have concerns about their defense so we don't have a lot of examples to look at. I wonder how Montero compares to Carlos Delgado when he debuted as a catcher defensively?

FWIW, I have Montero projected to hit .261/.327/.448, which as far as I can tell is the worst projection anyone has for him, so I am probably more in agreement with you than I am with ZiPS. Of course, I hope I'm terribly wrong.

As a fellow forecaster I may have jumped to Szym's defense a bit too quickly because you would not believe the amount of crap you get from people when you do projections.
   88. Shoebo Posted: February 28, 2011 at 03:34 PM (#3759515)
Understood.

I just want to emphasize how much I enjoy and how much I respect what you guys do. After the games and the drama of the season, I enjoy this part the most.
   89. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: February 28, 2011 at 04:11 PM (#3759545)
Montero v. Delgado: Going off memory, not notes/documentation but ... Delgado had a better arm, but Montero is ahead of him defensively in most other respects. Montero is ahead of him more generally - Delgado was in A-ball at the age Montero was last year.
   90. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: February 28, 2011 at 04:42 PM (#3759565)
Would it have been less controversial to have said ZiPS is having its Jeff Bagwell wins the batting title moment? Thanks to the efforts of Colin Wyers to puzzle out the Weiters projection, we know all sorts of things were odd with that projection, not the least of which is that it didn't seem consistent with the translations used elsewhere by PECOTA.


Pecota had Wieters going thermonuclear after hitting .345/.448/.576 in half a year in the Carolina League at age 22 (league:.258/.332/.395) and .365/.460/.625 in half a year in the EL (age 22) (league: .264/.338/.403)

Montero OTOH has hit .289/.353/.517 in a full season of AAA at age 20 (Wieters was hitting .305/.387/.504 in the IL- at age 23- when he was called up)(and F-Mart has slugged .490 in AAA- at younger ages, and he's now considered a failing if not failed prospect by many)

Montero also hit .337/.389/.562 at age 19 split between the FSL and the EL

I think Montero's age advantage makes Wieters/Montero comparisons difficult.
Also, as a partial excuse for Pecota, I'd also note that Wieter's 1/2 season in the El is a dead wringer for David Wright's 1/2 season in the EL. Of course Wright was a year younger and NOT A CATCHER.

What does this mean for Montero? Not a lot. Wieters is just one data point, Buster Posey is another, as is Russell Martin...
Very few minor leaguers hit as well as Montero has done. Far fewer hot as well as Montero has done- at the ages Montero has done it. Is he a sure thing? No, there is no such thing as a sure thing.

But, if he was in my favorite team's system? He'd be one guy whom I would hope was literally untouchable.
   91. Darren Posted: February 28, 2011 at 04:58 PM (#3759573)
Am I confused about who JSLF is or am I missing some joke about who his favorite team is?
   92. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: February 28, 2011 at 08:34 PM (#3759760)
Am I confused about who JSLF is or am I missing some joke about who his favorite team is?



I used to use JPWF13

"Sycophant-Laden Flora" was a phrase used in a blog post battle between two prominent statheads (Sheehan and Tango) awhile back
   93. rconn23 Posted: March 08, 2011 at 10:12 PM (#3766463)
"Jorge Posada C 36% 31% 18% 11% 3% Jason Varitek

Red Sox fans laugh in your general direction!"

What! Even factoring in defense, and Varitek was never a great defender, Posada has been a much better player.
   94. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: March 20, 2011 at 04:30 AM (#3774144)
What! Even factoring in defense, and Varitek was never a great defender, Posada has been a much better player.


Posada has always been a mediocre defensive catcher. Varitek has been above average.

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