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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, November 09, 2010

2011 ZiPS Projections - Oakland A’s

The A’s problem remains simple.  The team has a solid, young, cost-controlled pitching staff and no impact hitters, either now or on the horizon.  There’s Chris Carter, but both ZiPS and I remain skeptical that he’ll make enough contact to be the bat the team’s looking for - the Coliseum (or whatever the new name of the week is) is a difficult environment to hit in and I have a hard time seeing a guy who didn’t hit .260 in the PCL thriving there.

At least the team got Daric Barton to stop being so bunt-crazy.

Without a big step forward by a few of the young hitters, I can’t see the A’s really doing all that much better than .500.  Unless they sign someone else this offseason, it would be nice if they don’t send Jack Cust to the minors at the start of the year for no real good reason.  You can certainly improve on Cust and he’s a poor bet to age well, but as it currently stands, he’s one of the best offensive players in the organization.

Just a reminder as we’re only on team #3, I project injured players as well, so please don’t tell me that Ben Sheets will miss the 2011 season and has a very good shot of not pitching again.

On deck:  Texas (they did start the season at only $55 million).

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age    BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Daric Barton      L    1B  25   .258 .369 .400 159 547  88 141  32   5  12  66  93  99   4   3  108
Jack Cust         L    DH  32   .230 .362 .411 137 448  71 103  18   0  21  65  92 181   2   2  109
Coco Crisp        B    CF  31   .259 .326 .393  90 321  52  83  14   4   7  33  33  54  23   5   93
Ryan Sweeney      L    RF  26   .287 .343 .389 126 453  65 130  27   2   5  55  39  70   6   3   98
Rajai Davis       R    CF  30   .273 .318 .380 137 432  61 118  23   4   5  44  25  67  41  11   88
Chris Carter      R    1B  24   .229 .314 .427 149 586  91 134  31   2  27  88  68 188   4   2   98
Michael Taylor    R    RF  25   .256 .319 .395 140 527  71 135  29   4  12  72  44 112  14   6   92
Kevin Kouzmanoff  R    3B  29   .258 .298 .423 147 563  63 145  32   2  19  80  25 108   1   0   92
Grant Green       R    SS  23   .275 .311 .402 156 666 100 183  38   4  13  71  33 157   9   7   91
Kurt Suzuki       R    C   27   .260 .317 .387 148 551  68 143  27   2  13  74  38  67   4   2   89
Mark Ellis        R    2B  34   .258 .322 .374 118 431  52 111  21   1   9  51  37  62   8   4   88
Dallas McPherson  L    DH  30   .209 .289 .426 105 383  47  80  16   2  21  58  41 154   5   2   90
Cliff Pennington  B    SS  27   .245 .320 .344 159 564  80 138  26   6   6  48  61 105  26   6   80
Matt Carson       R    CF  29   .232 .279 .406 114 409  55  95  20   3  15  46  23  98  12   3   82
Steven Tolleson   R    SS  27   .252 .316 .363 120 444  57 112  21   2   8  37  39  91   9   5   83
Travis Buck       L    RF  27   .241 .311 .369  77 282  40  68  14   2   6  30  25  68   4   2   83
Adam Rosales      R    2B  28   .245 .305 .379 113 372  50  91  17   3   9  42  28  88   4   3   84
Eric Sogard       L    2B  25   .253 .323 .353 142 566  84 143  28   4   7  60  59  80  10   8   83
Jeremy Hermida    L    LF  27   .227 .303 .367 116 387  41  88  16   1  12  43  39 105   4   1   80
Adrian Cardenas   L    2B  23   .255 .314 .342 140 546  75 139  30   3   4  61  48  82   6   7   78
Conor Jackson     R    LF  29   .221 .313 .326  81 285  37  63  13   1   5  35  36  39   6   1   74
Adam Heether      R    3B  29   .221 .313 .337 112 389  48  86  19   1   8  37  46  92   6   3   76
Akinori Iwamura   L    2B  32   .229 .322 .322 111 397  52  91  17   4   4  30  54  89   6   4   75
Landon Powell     B    C   29   .212 .302 .338  61 198  24  42   7   0   6  25  26  50   1   0   73
Jeff Baisley      R    3B  28   .231 .285 .355 103 394  42  91  23   1   8  43  25 100   2   1   72
Corey Wimberly    B    CF  27   .245 .310 .295 114 461  72 113  12   4   1  34  33  65  36  12   65
Josh Donaldson    R    C   25   .210 .289 .356 115 419  49  88  20   1  13  58  46 112   5   2   73
Corey Brown       L    CF  25   .209 .280 .348 122 460  58  96  18   5  12  51  43 169  11   2   69
Anthony Recker    R    C   27   .219 .276 .359 105 370  39  81  18   2  10  42  27 128   2   1   70
Jemile Weeks      B    2B  24   .218 .278 .311  89 363  42  79  14   4   4  34  29  72   8   5   59
Eric Chavez       L    DH  33   .205 .260 .313  31 112  11  23   6   0   2  12   9  29   0   0   54

Defensive Projections

Player             CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Daric Barton               VG/120
Jack Cust                                                  PO/163          PO/119
Coco Crisp                                                         VG/120
Ryan Sweeney                                               VG/54   AV/67   VG/54
Rajai Davis                                                VG/112  AV/110  VG/112
Chris Carter               PO/186                          PO/180          PO/180
Michael Taylor                                             AV/156          AV/156
Kevin Kouzmanoff                           VG/60
Grant Green                                        AV/224
Kurt Suzuki        FR
Mark Ellis                         VG/56
Dallas McPherson           AV/121          AV/122
Cliff Pennington                   AV/157  AV/120  AV/123
Matt Carson                                                AV/118  AV/118  AV/118
Steven Tolleson                    VG/171  AV/118          AV/112  AV/100  AV/114
Travis Buck                                                AV/62   PO/101  AV/62
Adam Rosales               AV/103  AV/86   AV/110  FR/103  AV/114
Eric Sogard                        AV/148  AV/106  FR/115
Jeremy Hermida                                             FR/121          FR/121
Adrian Cardenas                    AV/145  FR/117  FR/150
Conor Jackson              AV/120                          AV/102
Adam Heether                       FR/131  VG/82   PO/146  AV/103          AV/113
Akinori Iwamura                    FR/91   AV/108
Landon Powell      VG      FR/134
Jeff Baisley               AV/95           AV/108  PO/124
Corey Wimberly                     AV/141  AV/151  AV/151  AV/119  FR/130
Josh Donaldson     VG      AV/157          FR/112
Corey Brown                                                AV/114  AV/163  AV/124
Anthony Recker     AV
Jemile Weeks                       AV/173
Eric Chavez                FR/102          FR/102

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Justin DuchschererR     33    3.77     3    2    8    8   45.3   43   19    4   14   32  110
Trevor Cahill     R     23    4.07    14   12   32   32  194.7  188   88   23   67  119  102
Dallas Braden     L     27    4.09    11   10   29   26  165.0  172   75   17   43  103  101
Brett Anderson    L     23    4.12     9    8   23   23  126.7  135   58   12   33  101  100
Ben Sheets        R     32    4.29     6    6   19   19  113.3  116   54   14   33   86   97
Gio Gonzalez      L     25    4.31    11   11   34   32  183.7  174   88   20   93  172   96
Josh Outman       L     26    4.80     3    4   21   10   65.7   70   35    7   32   50   86
Vin Mazzaro       R     24    4.87     8   11   29   26  155.3  175   84   18   62  104   85
Bobby Cramer      L     31    5.18     3    4   12    8   48.7   60   28    4   18   31   80
Tyson Ross        R     24    5.32     5    8   31   16   88.0   95   52   10   49   65   78
Kyle Middleton    R     31    5.83     3    6   17   10   66.3   79   43   10   32   36   71
Lenny DiNardo     L     31    6.00     4    8   21   16   90.0  123   60   10   33   49   69
Clayton Mortenson R     26    6.12     6   14   28   28  154.3  191  105   26   65   91   68
Graham Godfrey    R     26    6.20     4   10   30   24  127.7  167   88   15   64   74   67
Brett Tomko       R     38    6.37     2    5   21   10   59.3   77   42   12   19   38   65
Matt Wright       R     29    6.55     3    7   16   15   78.3  105   57   14   28   36   63
Pedro Figueroa    L     25    6.88     3    8   18   18   85.0  115   65   12   55   54   60

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Andrew Bailey     R     27    3.30     4    2   59    0   62.7   53   23    6   25   63  125
Craig Breslow     L     30    3.46     5    3   71    0   65.0   54   25    7   27   62  120
Joey Devine       R     27    3.57     2    1   22    0   22.7   20    9    2    9   23  116
Michael Wuertz    R     32    3.63     3    2   59    2   57.0   49   23    6   25   63  114
Brad Ziegler      R     31    3.84     4    3   66    0   68.0   68   29    5   27   47  108
Henry Rodriguez   R     24    3.94     2    1   45    0   48.0   42   21    5   27   55  105
Dan Giese         R     34    4.45     2    2   13    3   32.3   34   16    4   12   21   93
Brad Kilby        L     28    4.47     2    2   38    0   48.3   47   24    6   21   43   93
Jerry Blevins     L     27    4.50     3    3   67    0   66.0   70   33    8   23   59   92
Fautino De Los SanR     25    4.62     2    3   36    0   39.0   39   20    4   20   38   90
Boof Bonser       R     29    4.79     1    2   19    3   41.3   45   22    5   14   34   86
Cedrick Bowers    L     33    4.91     2    3   43    0   51.3   48   28    5   41   53   84
Ross Wolf         R     28    4.95     2    2   30    0   40.0   43   22    4   20   27   84
Edwar Ramirez     R     30    5.11     3    4   49    0   61.7   64   35    8   34   54   81
Marcus McBeth     R     30    5.63     1    2   27    0   32.0   34   20    5   23   26   74
Fernando HernandezR     26    5.66     4    7   51    2   68.3   81   43    8   34   46   73

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Kurt Suzuki         .255  .312  .376  1581  5862   683  1493   281    17   133   758   398   664    41    85
Daric Barton        .250  .364  .390  1886  6435   999  1608   360    60   140   752  1122  1154    45   104
Mark Ellis          .264  .329  .392  1347  4909   659  1294   252    25   110   564   434   713    77    93
Kevin Kouzmanoff    .255  .297  .416  1359  5151   547  1312   284    19   169   720   239   938    11    91
Rajai Davis         .273  .319  .375  1101  3314   459   906   175    30    34   323   196   499   291    86
Ryan Sweeney        .280  .338  .385  1242  4406   607  1235   258    22    53   522   387   664    55    95
Jack Cust           .238  .362  .420  1302  4238   628  1009   176     1   197   608   817  1520    17   110

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Brett Anderson     125  100    0    3.91  313  311     1744 1789  757  169  448 1449    106
Dallas Braden      116  117    0    4.21  332  294     1840 1922  861  193  498 1149     98
Trevor Cahill      187  149    0    3.96  419  418     2537 2381 1117  318  872 1612    104

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Daric Barton      1B     5%  18%  22%  34%  22%     Elbie Fletcher       Gerald Perry          Sid Bream
Jack Cust         DH     7%  21%  21%  30%  21%        Jim Gentile       Bernie Carbo        Carlos Pena
Coco Crisp        CF    23%  21%  26%  18%  12%          Ed Stroud       Steve Finley         Ryan Freel
Ryan Sweeney      RF     2%  11%  17%  27%  44%        Jeff Abbott  Broderick Perkins          John Kruk
Rajai Davis       CF    13%  18%  29%  25%  16%       Willie McGee     Doug Glanville      Willie Wilson
Chris Carter      1B     2%   9%  14%  33%  42%      Paul Sorrento        Carlos Pena         Joe Citari
Michael Taylor    RF     1%   6%  11%  23%  59%       Troy O’Leary        Chris James        Matt Stairs
Kevin Kouzmanoff  3B     2%  11%  20%  28%  39%      Charlie Hayes     Vinny Castilla      Mike Cervenak
Grant Green       SS    10%  18%  30%  25%  18%        Robin Yount      Travis Fryman     Andujar Cedeno
Kurt Suzuki       C      5%  22%  26%  29%  18%         Dan Wilson    Ramon Hernandez         John Ramos
Mark Ellis        2B     7%   8%  12%  24%  48%       Cookie Rojas       Jeff Cirillo       Rich Aurilia
Dallas McPherson  DH     1%   4%   7%  24%  64%       Mike Hessman       Chris Norton        Mitch Jones
Cliff Pennington  SS     7%  15%  29%  29%  21%      Jerry Royster    Mike Sharperson     Nelson Liriano
Matt Carson       CF     2%   6%  20%  33%  39%         Ray Sadler       Ruben Rivera        Ken Gerhart
Steven Tolleson   SS     4%  10%  25%  30%  31%          Vance Law       Reno Bertoia        Clete Boyer
Travis Buck       RF     0%   2%   5%  14%  79%       Chris Aguila     Mike Maksudian   Garret Anderson
Adam Rosales      2B     4%   6%  13%  26%  51%         Nick Green     Chris Woodward       Brandon Inge
Eric Sogard       2B     3%   4%   8%  21%  64%      Derrel Thomas      Damion Easley         Russ Adams
Jeremy Hermida    LF     0%   1%   3%  10%  86%       Luis Jimenez   Randy Washington        Russ Morman
Adrian Cardenas   2B     1%   2%   4%  12%  82%         Tim Hummel         Aaron Hill      Jeff Treadway
Conor Jackson     LF     0%   1%   2%   7%  91%     Mike Colangelo      Jeff McKnight       Keith Luuloa
Adam Heether      3B     0%   2%   5%  14%  79%      Tony Schrager         Rodney Nye      Mike Moriarty
Akinori Iwamura   2B     1%   3%   5%  14%  77%     Nelson Liriano      Derrel Thomas   Mickey Morandini
Landon Powell     C      2%   6%   9%  23%  60%       Danny Ardoin         Alan Ashby       B.J. Waszgis
Jeff Baisley      3B     0%   1%   2%   7%  90%          Mike Ross     Clay Bellinger          Lou Lucca
Corey Wimberly    CF     0%   1%   5%  15%  79%      Willy Taveras      Keith Thrower       Jim Buccheri
Josh Donaldson    C      2%   5%  10%  26%  57%     Andy Dominique         Luke Montz       Adam Melhuse
Corey Brown       CF     1%   2%   6%  17%  74%        Brad Snyder      Todd Dunwoody      Luis Saturria
Anthony Recker    C      1%   2%   6%  19%  72%        Jack Fimple          Tim Glass       Joel Skinner
Jemile Weeks      2B     1%   1%   1%   3%  94%         Chris Dean      Donnie Sadler       Raul Rodarte
Eric Chavez       DH     0%   0%   0%   1%  99%        Dann Howitt   Darrell Whitmore        Orsino Hill

Player            PO     TOP   MID   BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Andrew Bailey     RP     52%   40%    8%       Rich Gossage       Ray Narleski       Mike Jackson
Craig Breslow     RP     41%   49%   10%          Sid Monge    George Sherrill      Arthur Rhodes
Joey Devine       RP     51%   25%   25%     Scott Garrelts       Rich Gossage       Jeff Parrett
Michael Wuertz    RP     31%   51%   18%      Russ Springer      Mike Williams    Kyle Farnsworth
Justin DuchschererSP     50%   36%   14%          Eric Show      Pete Harnisch     Frank Castillo
Brad Ziegler      RP     21%   53%   26%     Julian Tavarez        Saul Rivera      Mike Marshall
Henry Rodriguez   RP     21%   48%   31%         Mark Clear       Eric Cammack       Brian Bruney
Trevor Cahill     SP     30%   56%   14%        Jon Garland       Nate Minchey      Omar Olivares
Dallas Braden     SP     26%   59%   14%        Kirk Rueter     Allan Anderson     Rick Honeycutt
Brett Anderson    SP     29%   56%   14%    Donovan Osborne        Steve Trout      Andy Pettitte
Ben Sheets        SP     22%   55%   24%       Rick Helling      Mike Smithson     Dennis Leonard
Gio Gonzalez      SP     17%   62%   21%      Mark Langston   Carlos Hernandez      Sebern Wright
Dan Giese         RP     13%   31%   56%      Braden Looper      Ryan Franklin        Pete Walker
Brad Kilby        RP     10%   42%   48%         Todd Genke     Eddie Guardado   Dick Littlefield
Jerry Blevins     RP      8%   45%   47%         Tom Gorman    Pedro Feliciano      Bob Patterson
Fautino De Los SanRP     11%   39%   50%      Julio Machado       Ryan Bukvich      Chad Harville
Boof Bonser       RP      8%   33%   59%       Randy O’Neal        John Wasdin          Donn Pall
Josh Outman       SP      4%   26%   70%       Jeff Fassero          Pat Gomez      Wayne Edwards
Vin Mazzaro       SP      3%   41%   56%      Rich Loiselle        Jose Guzman     Bronson Arroyo
Cedrick Bowers    RP      3%   24%   73%         Doug Creek   Marshall Bridges       Tim Fortugno
Ross Wolf         RP      5%   27%   68%         Sean Green         Greg Bauer      Kevin Cameron
Edwar Ramirez     RP      2%   19%   79%       Mike Butcher      Reggie Harris      Jimmy Serrano
Bobby Cramer      SP      9%   25%   66%         Rick Waits         Geoff Zahn       Kent Mercker
Tyson Ross        SP      2%   25%   73%           Ken Hill        Greg Wooten      Greg Mayberry
Marcus McBeth     RP      2%   12%   86%     Brian Forystek    Darwin Cubillan        Steve Green
Fernando HernandezRP      0%    8%   92%       Andy Shipman       Jamie Brisco Dennis Konuszewski
Kyle Middleton    SP      1%   10%   89%        Ryan Jensen       Robert Ellis            Ken Ray
Lenny DiNardo     SP      1%    6%   93%    Lee Gronkiewicz         Rick Waits   Mark Hendrickson
Clayton Mortenson SP      0%    1%   99%       Danny Tamayo      Mark Nussbeck         Jim Brower
Graham Godfrey    SP      0%    1%   99%     Carlos Paredes     Rick Sutcliffe       Adam Russell
Brett Tomko       SP      1%    5%   94%       Lew Burdette     Boom-Boom Beck        Doug Linton
Matt Wright       SP      0%    2%   98%    Steve Ellsworth          Jose Lima       Clay Condrey
Pedro Figueroa    SP      0%    0%  100%       Larry Thomas         Mark Freed     Bruce Lockhart

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Daric Barton             4%      38%       1%       6%       5%       0%       3%       0%
Jack Cust                0%      33%       4%       0%       0%      10%       6%       0%
Coco Crisp               7%       6%       2%       0%       5%       0%       1%      17%
Ryan Sweeney            30%      11%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Rajai Davis             16%       3%       0%       0%       4%       0%       0%      82%
Chris Carter             0%       2%       6%       4%       0%      36%       2%       0%
Michael Taylor           4%       2%       0%       1%       2%       0%       0%       2%
Kevin Kouzmanoff         3%       0%       4%       5%       1%       6%       0%       0%
Grant Green             13%       0%       3%      20%       5%       2%       1%       0%
Kurt Suzuki              3%       1%       0%       1%       1%       1%       0%       0%
Mark Ellis               4%       3%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Dallas McPherson         0%       0%       6%       0%       0%       8%       1%       0%
Cliff Pennington         1%       2%       0%       1%      14%       0%       0%      28%
Matt Carson              0%       0%       2%       0%       1%       1%       0%       2%
Steven Tolleson          2%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Travis Buck              2%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Adam Rosales             1%       1%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Eric Sogard              2%       2%       0%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Jeremy Hermida           0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Adrian Cardenas          2%       1%       0%       2%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Conor Jackson            0%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Adam Heether             0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Akinori Iwamura          0%       4%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       0%
Landon Powell            0%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jeff Baisley             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Corey Wimberly           1%       1%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%      71%
Josh Donaldson           0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Corey Brown              0%       0%       0%       0%       8%       0%       0%       0%
Anthony Recker           0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Jemile Weeks             0%       0%       0%       0%       5%       0%       0%       0%
Eric Chavez              1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Andrew Bailey             44%        85%        80%         2%        74%
Craig Breslow             41%        87%        67%         1%        61%
Joey Devine               51%        75%        69%         9%        85%
Michael Wuertz            31%        77%        93%         1%        66%
Justin Duchscherer        32%        67%         8%        19%        73%
Brad Ziegler              21%        68%         4%         3%        93%
Henry Rodriguez           21%        62%        94%         0%        65%
Trevor Cahill              8%        55%         0%         3%        48%
Dallas Braden              5%        56%         1%        28%        64%
Brett Anderson             7%        56%        17%        25%        80%
Ben Sheets                 5%        44%         6%        11%        49%
Gio Gonzalez               3%        44%        64%         0%        55%
Dan Giese                 13%        35%         5%        14%        66%
Brad Kilby                10%        44%        47%         1%        44%
Jerry Blevins              5%        39%        45%         7%        51%
Fautino De Los San         7%        41%        62%         0%        63%
Boof Bonser                5%        32%        26%        12%        67%
Josh Outman                2%        24%        13%         1%        57%
Vin Mazzaro                0%        14%         0%         0%        47%
Cedrick Bowers             3%        21%        82%         0%        74%
Ross Wolf                  5%        24%         5%         1%        61%
Edwar Ramirez              1%        16%        41%         0%        46%
Bobby Cramer               3%        17%         6%         8%        75%
Tyson Ross                 0%         7%         5%         0%        54%
Marcus McBeth              2%         9%        25%         0%        50%
Fernando Hernandez         0%         4%         1%         0%        55%
Kyle Middleton             0%         3%         2%         0%        30%
Lenny DiNardo              0%         2%         1%         2%        62%
Clayton Mortenson          0%         0%         0%         0%         7%
Graham Godfrey             0%         0%         0%         0%        49%
Brett Tomko                1%         5%         6%        18%        23%
Matt Wright                0%         0%         0%         3%        12%
Pedro Figueroa             0%         0%         0%         0%        28%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 09, 2010 at 05:35 AM | 44 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. morineko Posted: November 09, 2010 at 05:45 AM (#3686465)
now, I knew Landon Powell was awful with the bat, but I didn't realize that every other plausible C in the organization including the normal starter has a pretty good chance of being awful in 2011. any chances of Oakland finding something resembling a catcher on the open market? (I know, good-hitting catchers are rare, but I'm not looking for Joe Mauer here)
   2. Walt Davis Posted: November 09, 2010 at 06:04 AM (#3686468)
Hey Dan, Eric Chavez will miss the 2011 season and has a very good shot of not playing again.

I'm tickled that somehow Sweeney's #3 comp is Kruk. Kruk on a segway maybe.

Surely a lineup can't feature Barton, Cust and Carter all at the same time.

Green's top 2 comps are Yount and Fryman ... maybe he should play. Why do I have a sneaking suspicion that his #4-10 comps are all guys with 68 OPS+s?
   3. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: November 09, 2010 at 06:09 AM (#3686470)
Hitting is overrated. < /Sabean>
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 09, 2010 at 06:14 AM (#3686472)
I'm tickled that somehow Sweeney's #3 comp is Kruk. Kruk on a segway maybe.

Yeah, that's kind of weird to think about. Though the Krukster did steal 18 bases one time!
   5. Juan V Posted: November 09, 2010 at 06:42 AM (#3686477)
That "offense" makes puppies cry.
   6. A triple short of the cycle Posted: November 09, 2010 at 07:46 AM (#3686485)
Those projections are dreadful.
   7. Rich Rifkin Posted: November 09, 2010 at 08:14 AM (#3686488)
If you are going to give me a 96 ERA+ as an over/under line on Gio Gonzalez--his ERA+ last year was 128, the first season he pitched a complete season, though his career mark is exactly 96--I'd bet my entire annual income (low six-figures) on the over. Gio is a very good pitcher. Having seen all of his starts last year, I would rate him among the 15 best pitchers in the American League. He's not as talented as Brett Anderson is. But Gonzalez is steadier and healthier and he really looked like he figured things out in 2010.

I'm not sure of any others ZiPS gets so wrong, but the numbers look too conservative to me for most of the A's pitchers. (Only Justin Duchscherer, who is a free agent, looks like ZiPS is overly optimistic about.)

As to the A's offense, it looks really bad right now, and ZiPS reflects that. My hope is that if the A's sign the Japanese pitcher, they will package a few of their young pitchers for some better bats. It would be nice to have Nick Swisher or Carlos Gonzalez or Nelson Cruz back in Oakland. Maybe if Cashman signs Jeter and moves him into the outfield, the Yankees would take Cliff Pennington and Andrew Bailey for Swisher? Maybe the Rangers would give up Cruz for Vin Mazzaro and Travis Buck?
   8. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 09, 2010 at 12:07 PM (#3686504)
I realize Iwakuma hasn't signed yet, but is there a projection for him? Also this team as projected is lucky to win 70 games. Good thing defense matters.

Also I think Fautino is seriously underrated here.
   9. Silencio Posted: November 09, 2010 at 02:03 PM (#3686521)
Is the Brett Anderson projection right? Its hard for me to understand him being marginally worse than Braden. Even their projected stat lines besides ERA seem to indicate Anderson is better.

IS ZIPS really worried about his injury last year?
   10. Posada Posse Posted: November 09, 2010 at 03:00 PM (#3686542)
Man, that Michael Taylor projection is disappointing. Looks like the guy's stock has fallen significantly.
   11. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: November 09, 2010 at 03:18 PM (#3686557)
geez dan, thanks for wrecking my morning.
   12. Russ Posted: November 09, 2010 at 03:32 PM (#3686568)
Their offense is projected to be worse than the Pirates.

Think about that.
   13. Russ Posted: November 09, 2010 at 03:33 PM (#3686570)
Although, it seems that a Doumit for pitching deal might make sense for both teams here. The Pirates will have to move Doumit eventually for Sanchez, might as well do it now while the A's could use the help behind the plate.
   14. RJ in TO Posted: November 09, 2010 at 03:39 PM (#3686575)
Man, that Michael Taylor projection is disappointing. Looks like the guy's stock has fallen significantly.

When the Jays traded for him, and then immediately flipped him for Wallace, I was somewhat annoyed. Given Taylor's sudden cratering, it looks like AA may have had the right idea.

Now I just have to hope that the flip of Wallace for Gose will also work out.
   15. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: November 09, 2010 at 03:46 PM (#3686580)
I didn't realize that Taylor was already 25.

OTOH, the projection for Green is surprisingly good IMO, esp. given the hideous BB-K ratio.
   16. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: November 09, 2010 at 04:53 PM (#3686639)
What happened to Taylor? He was putting up great numbers at AAA for the Phillies, and was just brutal in AAA for OAK last year.
   17. Danny Posted: November 09, 2010 at 06:01 PM (#3686684)
Wow, these are depressing. The only bright spot is the Green projection and comps, though that looks like it's dependent on a ~.340 BABIP projection. Oh, and I guess I like seeing Matt Stairs come up as a comp for Taylor.

Rueter is actually a really good comp for Braden--one I haven't seen before. It works all the way down to their shutting down of the running game.

The A's position players will look a lot worse in an OPS+ style projection than a WAR style one, since they get a lot of their value from fielding and baserunning. But, still, this looks awful. Even the guys who outperformed their ZIPS from last year (Barton, Ellis, Pennington) have even worse projections this year.

They're not going to be replacing Suzuki behind the plate anytime soon, given his recent extension. I think he'll bounce back a good bit this year; that infield FB% can't be sustainable, can it?

The Anderson projection does seem a bit weird. He looks to have above average peripherals and a poor BABIP. And Cahill projects to keep some of his BABIP mojo.

It might be worth noting that ZIPS was more pessimistic than other projection systems regarding the A's pitching staff last year. Here's how three systems saw the team's top 7 SP (Sheets, Duke, Anderson, Braden, Cahill, Mazzaro, Gio) and top 7 RP (Bailey, Ziegler, Devine, Wuertz, Breslow, Blevins, Kilby) by average ERA, along with their actual results

.          CHONE PECOTA ZIPS  Actual
Starters    4.19  4.34  4.59   3.47
Relievers   3.49  3.65  4.00   3.83 


A lot of that run prevention goodness was due to the defense, but the defense projects to be pretty good again in 2011. The infield should decline some, but the outfield should pick up some of that slack after down years from Rajai and Sweeney.

Depressing, all around.
   18. wolf213 Posted: November 09, 2010 at 06:54 PM (#3686726)
Gabe Gross?
   19. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: November 09, 2010 at 07:08 PM (#3686733)
Is Coco a free agent? He played very well last year when he was in the lineup. I agree with Rich on Gio, and would probably also take the over on Cahill and Anderson.

Also, wow, Dallas McPherson is still in baseball?
   20. RJ in TO Posted: November 09, 2010 at 07:14 PM (#3686737)
Is Coco a free agent?

His option for 2011 was picked up by the A's.
   21. Willie Mayspedester Posted: November 09, 2010 at 07:24 PM (#3686742)
The defense looks spectacular again. If Rajai is in LF and Sweeney in right the only AV is at SS. VG's everywhere else. That infield defense is going to be gangbusters again. I like Iwakuma's chances as a groundball pitcher in that park with that infield defense.

A .427 as the top SLG is pretty sad. I think trading a young SP for Kemp or Rasmus plus signing 2 guys like Matsui, Ordonez, Dunn or Manny might make them a contender. I'd drop Cust if the budget allows somebody better and DH's didn't get much money last year. You can always string him along until the end of the offseason as a backup plan.

Nice projection for Green as others have said. I think the projection for Taylor is a little on the high side considering how bad he hit last year and in the AFL right now.

Do you guys think that Coco or Rajai have much trade value considering the slim pickings out on the CF market?
   22. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 09, 2010 at 07:28 PM (#3686744)
Although, it seems that a Doumit for pitching deal might make sense for both teams here. The Pirates will have to move Doumit eventually for Sanchez, might as well do it now while the A's could use the help behind the plate.


I like this idea.
   23. Walt Davis Posted: November 09, 2010 at 07:31 PM (#3686746)
I'd like to take the over on half the A's pitcher and the under on the other half ... I'll get back to you next September on which ones I want in which group. :-)

ZiPS's offseason goal appears to be to make Pirates fans as happy as possible (which presumably is "not very"). Another offense that projects worse than the Pirates and, somehow, the starting rotation doesn't really project much better than the Pirates either (remember to take out Duke and Sheets).

Hey, a BJ Wazgis comp!
   24. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: November 09, 2010 at 07:31 PM (#3686747)
trading a young SP for Kemp or Rasmus


Here come the OMG police. Though they wouldn't be wrong about Rasmus--really think he's getting traded, with the year he just had??
   25. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: November 09, 2010 at 07:36 PM (#3686752)
That is a hell of a bullpen right there.

The A's are the place that prospects go to die; Hermida, Conor Jackson, McPherson...I can only assume they are going to be acquiring Matt Bush in the near future.
   26. Willie Mayspedester Posted: November 09, 2010 at 07:37 PM (#3686756)
There were rumors about Rasmus getting traded right? Cahill came off a pretty good year himself so that would be how I got started. Probably wouldn't happen but when you are talking offseason moves in November anything can happen!
   27. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: November 09, 2010 at 07:55 PM (#3686766)
LaRussa re-signed with St. Louis, and supposedly has kissed and made up with Rasmus, but a trade wouldn't be completely out of the blue given their spat towards the end of the year.
   28. Iwakuma Chameleon (jonathan) Posted: November 10, 2010 at 04:48 AM (#3687145)
I'll bet my student loan debt on the under (over? better. i'll bet the "better") for Anderson.


edit: oh yeah and the offense suuuuuuuucks.
   29. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 10, 2010 at 04:32 PM (#3687292)
The A's are the place that prospects go to die; Hermida, Conor Jackson, McPherson...I can only assume they are going to be acquiring Matt Bush in the near future.


Hermida, Conor Jackson, McPherson all PERFORMED at one time or another (AAA anyway in McPherson's case)
Matt Bush?
not so much
   30. Willie Mayspedester Posted: November 10, 2010 at 07:01 PM (#3687445)
And the Ray's and Rangers are where the A's dead prospects flourish.
   31. Willie Mayspedester Posted: November 11, 2010 at 01:54 AM (#3687777)
Just traded Mazzarro, nobody messes with an all ex-Royals OF!!!
   32. Posada Posse Posted: November 11, 2010 at 01:41 PM (#3687952)
Dan, would it be possible to add a projection for David DeJesus as a result of yesterday's trade? Thanks.
   33. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 12, 2010 at 08:39 PM (#3688983)
Dan, would it also be possible to add Stephen Parker in a future round?
   34. DCA Posted: November 12, 2010 at 09:00 PM (#3689000)
Just traded Mazzarro, nobody messes with an all ex-Royals OF!!!

That's DeJesus, Crisp, and who?

Beltran's not walking in that door. I suppose Jermaine Dye would listen if Billy called.
   35. Willie Mayspedester Posted: November 12, 2010 at 10:19 PM (#3689056)
Just traded Mazzarro, nobody messes with an all ex-Royals OF!!!


There's plenty of offseason left.
   36. James Darnell's #1 Fan Posted: November 15, 2010 at 08:40 PM (#3690318)
What the hell happened to Hermida?
I remember seeing him play in the minors and he reminded me so much of Thome, in the sense that he looked like a grown man playing with kids... Shame.
   37. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 15, 2010 at 09:02 PM (#3690341)
What the hell happened to Hermida?


He's too selective at the plate. He doesn't swing at enough strikes.

-- MWE
   38. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 16, 2010 at 05:48 AM (#3690774)
By request from the AN guys, Stephen Parker - 251/326/390, OPS+ of 93. Haven't decided on D yet as there are mixed reports.
   39. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 16, 2010 at 11:50 PM (#3691470)
Thanks for the Parker projection Dan! And hey, I requested it too!
   40. Ken015 Posted: November 20, 2010 at 09:03 PM (#3694407)
So how might Magnuson do in Oakland?
   41. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 20, 2010 at 09:42 PM (#3694421)
Dunno yet! Probably decently as it's a better park defense and he translated well in '10.
   42. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 19, 2011 at 08:00 PM (#3732765)
Oh, Dan - given that Tolleson is (appropriately) listed as a SS here - would you mind posting his defensive projection at the position? (I'm gonna guess... F/200)
   43. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: January 28, 2011 at 09:07 PM (#3738371)
Man, Iwamura used to be decent....what happened?
   44. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: January 28, 2011 at 09:22 PM (#3738385)
That's DeJesus, Crisp, and who?

Mark Quinn, of course.
   45. Russ Posted: February 08, 2011 at 02:17 PM (#3745739)
Wayne Tolleson used to kill me in Strat-o-matic when I was playing the '86 card set. I have no idea why, but that guy batted like .350 against my teams when I played him.

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